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- GEAB N°68 ist angekommen! Die gegenwärtige umfassende Krise - Herbst 2012: Die Wochen der historischen Zeitenwende beginnen / Geopolitik als Auslöser eines neuen weltweiten Schocks
- Adrian Gilbert: Ancient Relics & Mysteries
- 2 High-Flying Stocks With Heavy Insider Selling In October
- Gold And Silver: The Most Important Data Since QE3
- ‘Transflation': Move of wealth from poor to JP Morgan
- Keiser Report: Enema of the State
- Fed policy: good for gold but bad for the economy
- Greg: Gold And Silver Fall, Stocks Soon To Follow.
- Here Is What To Focus On In The Gold Market Right Now
- Here Is What To Look For Next On Gold, Silver & Oil
- The March to Silver Price Equilibrium
- Euro Rallies On Spain Optimism: Too Early To Call A Bottom?
- Gold 'Could See Deeper Downside' as 'Uptrend Remains'
- Investors’ asset allocation is key gold price determinant
- Copper, Crude Oil Set Sights on Industrial Production
- Links 10/16/12
- John Dizard...Financial Times...As Money Hides Away, Gold Heads for a Blow Off
- Casey Research: $2,300 Gold, Here We Come
- New York Post: Ben's gold touch -- 148% rise on QE
- Seven King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews
- Silver Update: Barack Hoover Obama 10.15.12
- An Ideal Way to Play the Fed's Loose Money Policies
- Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II
- Taking Profits on Gold
- Links for 2012-10-15 [del.icio.us]
- Chris Mayer: Monetary Mayhem in Myanmar
| Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:24 PM PDT - Pressemitteilung des GEAB vom 18. September 2012 (GEAB N°67) -  Wir hatten schon vor Monaten einen massiven Schock für die Weltwirtschaft und die globale politische Stabilität für den Herbst 2012 vorhergesehen. Wir halten diese "Warnstufe rot" aufrecht und werden Mitte November im Einzelnen darauf zurück kommen, wenn wir auch unseren Länderrisikenbericht 2013 zum Zustand der Welt zum Jahresende 2013 vorlegen. In den letzten Wochen hat sich die globale geopolitische Lage, wie von uns vorhergesehen, rapide verschlechtert: Der syrische Bürgerkrieg hat sich zu einem regionalen Konflikt ausgewachsen, in dem die großen Mächten versuchen, eine Grenze, die sich selbst gesetzt haben, nicht überschreiten zu müssen (1). Im Norden der Sahelzone (Mali, Niger usw.) droht eine weitere militärische Konfrontation zwischen Islamisten und den westlichen Staaten (2); das Chinesische Meer ist inzwischen Schauplatz verschiedener "lauwarmer" Konflikte, wobei Japan und China die Hauptakteure in diesem sich entwickelnden Chaos geben (3); die großen globalen Wirtschaftsmächte stecken inzwischen alle in einer Rezession (4); die soziale Unzufriedenheit wächst, genauso wie die Steuerbelastung - und alle Liquiditätsquellen, die 2009 noch angezapft werden konnten, sind versiegt (selbst die QE haben ihre Wirksamkeit inzwischen weitestgehend eingebüßt (5)). In dieser 68. Ausgabe des GEAB untersuchen wir die Aussichten für die Immobilienmärkte der westlichen Staaten bis 2013 und veröffentlichen anlässlich des sich in den Niederlanden vollziehenden Immobiliencrahs eine Sonderantizipation über den dortigen Immobilienmarkt. Gleichzeitig widmen wir uns weiterhin der Frage, welche sozialen und politischen Konsequenzen die wachsenden sozialen Spannungen zeitigen werden und wie sie die Ereignisse im Jahr 2013 beeinflussen oder hervorrufen werden, wobei wir uns diesmal auf die USA konzentrieren (6). Und schließlich, nach einem Überblick über die großen Trends der kommenden Monate (wie immer mit Zeitangaben) geben wir erneut unsere Empfehlungen zu Immobilien, Gold und den Aktienmärkten.  Gleichzeitig kann man vor diesem Hintergrund der asiatischen oder arabisch- islamischen Konflikte sehen, wie die Verbündeten und Gegner der USA immer wieder den Grad der Schwächung der US- Macht austesten (7). Und mit jeder Woche, die verstreicht, wird eindeutiger, dass die "Hypermacht des ausgehenden 20. Jahrhunderts" ihre alte Macht eingebüßt hat: Der "Königsmacher im Mittleren Osten" der Jahre 1990 bis 2000 muss heute schon zufrieden sein, wenn seine Präsenz in der Region nicht auf Widerstand stößt und sich jeglicher sichtbarer militärischer Aktion enthalten (8); und im Konflikt zwischen China, seinem größten geopolitischen Konkurrenten und vor allen Dingen seinem wichtigsten Wirtschafts- und Handelspartner und Geldgeber (9), und Japan, seinem seit mehr als 60 Jahren wichtigsten Verbündeten in der Region (10), muss sich die einstige "pazifische Supermacht" mit der Rolle eines Beobachters zufrieden geben. Und gerade dort erweisen sich mit jedem Tag die immer schwereren Folgen der amerikanischen "Achillesferse" (11). Neben der Veröffentlichung eines Auszugs unserer Analysen zur Lage und den Aussichten auf dem amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt, die den Beginn einer dauerhaften Depression des Immobilienmarkts der westlichen Staaten markieren, haben wir uns entschieden, in dieser Pressemitteilung der 68. Ausgabe des GEAB einige Schaubilder zu präsentieren, die nachweisen, wie die US- Behörden mit Hilfe von statistischen Manipulationen versuchen, den Schein eines Aufschwungs zu erwecken. Wir freuen uns darüber, dass die Polemik, die im US- Wahlkampf über die offiziellen Arbeitslosenzahlen der US für September 2012 mit angeblichem Rückgang von 0,4% ausgebrochen ist, eine weitreichende Diskussion in den großen Medien über die "merkwürdigen Berechnungsmethoden" des US- Arbeitsministeriums ermöglicht hat. Diese staatliche Stelle ist nicht die einzige, die Statistiken nach ihrem Gusto hinbiegt, aber wenn man bedenkt, welche Bedeutung den US- Statistiken international immer zugemessen wird, halten wir es doch für sehr hilfreich, wenn mehr Akteure Klarheit darüber gewinnen, wie und mit welchen Zielen sie erstellt werden; und nicht nur die bereits sehr gut informierten Leser des GEAB und anderer wahrhaft informativer Netzauftritte. In China vollzieht sich der politische Wechsel sehr schwierig. Wie sollte es auch anders sein, steht doch das Land vor einer doppelten Herausforderung: Zum einen die weltweite Wirtschaftskrise, die nun auch dieses Land (und überhaupt die BRICS (12)) in Mitleidenschaft zieht (13); zum anderen die Notwendigkeit der Entwicklung einer neuen Strategie, mit der das Land Antworten auf zwei große Fragestellungen geben kann, nämlich wie intern die Risiken von sozialen Unruhen abgefedert werden können (wir werden darauf im Einzelnen in der 69. Ausgabe des GEAB vom November 2012 eingehen) und wie extern die Definition seiner geopolitische Rolle in der Region und weltweit) gelingen kann. Inzwischen etabliert sich auch die Europäische Union, bzw. um präziser zu sein, Euroland als dritter großer (und vielleicht für die Zukunft bedeutendster, da strukturierender) Pfeiler der neuen Weltordnung. Wie wir vorhergesehen hatten, kommen die einzigen guten Nachrichten im Herbst 2012 aus Euroland. Natürlich werden sie auf kurze Sicht von den wirtschaftlichen und für die Staaten finanziellen Folgen der umfassenden weltweiten Krise (Arbeitslosigkeit, Rezession, Sparpolitik usw.) aus den Tagesnachrichten verdrängt. Aber auf mittel - oder langfristige Sicht hat Euroland endlich einen Weg eingeschlagen, der in die Zukunft führen kann, nachdem es über Monate zu politischer Ohnmacht verdammt war. Es verfügt nunmehr über machtvolle Instrumente und der europäische politische Wille, gemeinsam die Krise zu überwinden (14), hat sich endlich herausgebildet (15), (da jeder Mitgliedstaat inzwischen die Auswirkungen der Krise empfindlich spürt). Der Ablauf der kommenden Ereignisse ist nach unserer Auffassung inzwischen relativ leicht ersichtlich: - Bis Ende November 2012 werden sowohl die USA als auch China in eine Phase doppelter Herausforderungen geraten: Sie werden bisher einzigartigen sozialen und politischen Spannungen ausgesetzt sein und gleichzeitig sich darauf vorbereiten müssen, dass die Periode der "friedlichen Wirtschafts- und Handelspartnerschaft" der letzten Jahrzehnte zu Ende geht; - bis Ende Dezember 2012 stolpert sich Euroland, wie es so seine Art zu funktionieren ist, aus der "Eurokrise" und steht vor der dreifachen Herausforderung, seine Wirtschaft trotz der weltweiten Krise wieder in Schwung zu bringen, seine Institutionen neu zu ordnen und dabei die unbedingt notwendige Demokratisierung voranzutreiben (16), und die langfristigen Beziehungen zu Großbritannien auf eine neue Grundlage zu stellen (also im Prinzip eine EU 26 plus 1 (17))  Die USA - Der Aufschwung als Fata Morgana Die Medien versuchen die Öffentlichkeit davon zu überzeugen, dass der Immobilienmarkt in den USA sich erhole. Dabei stützen sie sich insbesondere auf den Case-Shiller- Index, den wir im Folgenden als Schaubild wiedergeben.  In sechs Monaten, vom vierten Quartal 2011 bis zum zweiten Quartal 2012, verzeichnete der Index in der Tat einen Anstieg von 3,7%. Wir gehen jedoch davon aus, dass dieser Anstieg nicht von Dauer sein wird, sondern es sich dabei lediglich um eine künstlich herbeigeführte Pause auf dem unvermeidbaren Weg der amerikanischen Immobilienpreise zu tieferen Preisniveaus ist. Wir stehen mit dieser Auffassung nicht alleine, denn selbst die Fed hielt es trotz der aktuellen Preissteigerungen für sinnvoll, mit seinem QE3 in ersten Linie den Immobilienmarkt zu stützen. In Wirklichkeit ist dieser Preisanstieg künstlich herbeigeführt, und dies zumindest aus zwei Gründen: Erstens ist das Zinsniveau auf einem historischen Tiefststand (zur Zeit 3,39% für ein Darlehen mit Zinsbindung über 30 Jahre (18)), was zum einen einigen Familien ermöglicht, auch wenn sie weitestgehend insolvent sind, wieder auf den Immobilienmarkt zurückzukehren, zum anderen aber überwiegend Investoren ermöglicht, Immobilien, in die die Banken zwangsvollstreckt haben, zu Schnäppchenpreisen zu erwerben (19). Diese Käufe führen automatisch zu einem Anstieg des allgemeinen Preisniveaus. Es bleibt dennoch auffällig, dass, obwohl das Zinsniveau nun schon seit einigen Jahren extrem niedrig ist, dies erst jetzt Auswirkungen zeitigt. Das bedeutet, dass die "neuen" Marktteilnehmer finanziell nicht auf Rosen gebettet sind und damit der "Aufschwung" alles andere als solide ist. Leider ist dieses Zinsniveau in keiner Weise ein Spiegelbild der guten Gesundheit der US- Wirtschaft und allein der Fed und seinem Aufkaufprogramm für US- Staatsanleihen geschuldet. In normalen Zeiten hätten die verschiedenen staatlichen Konjunkturprogramme schon viel früher zu einem deutlich ausgeprägteren Immobilienpreisanstieg führen müssen. Zweitens verknappen die Banken das Immobilienangebot, weil sie die zwangsvollstreckten Häuser nicht zum Marktwert abgeben wollen; denn dann müssten sie in ihren Bilanzen die entsprechenden Wertberichtigungen vornehmen. Und 90% der zwangsvollstreckten Häuser gehören den Banken (20). Das sind Millionen Häuser, die alsbald auf den Markt kommen werden, was unweigerlich zu einem Preisrückgang führen wird. Aber zur Zeit wird das Angebot bewusst verknappt, was zu einem Preisanstieg führt. Und dabei kann man doch gerade an der Zahl der Zwangsvollstreckungen sehen, in welch schlechter Verfassung der Immobilienmarkt in den USA ist. Nachdem eine Zeit lang weniger Zwangsvollstreckungen durchgeführt wurden, weil bekannt geworden war, dass die Banken die notwendigen Unterlagen fälschten, steigt ihre Zahl nun wieder an (21) (Schätzungen gehen davon aus, dass pro Jahr in drei Millionen Häuser zwangsvollstreckt wird. Wer sich einen realistischen Einblick in den Zustand des US- Immobilienmarkts verschaffen will, sollte sich auf Wikipédia die Liste der größten amerikanischen Städte (mit Ausnahme New Yorks) besorgen und sich anschließend auf einem Netzauftritt wie Trulia (22) einen Überblick darüber verschaffen, wie groß der Anteil der Zwangsvollstreckungen an den Immobilienangeboten ist - und dass, obwohl viele Häuser von den Banken erst gar nicht auf den Markt gebracht werden. Daraus lässt sich zweifelsfrei ermitteln, dass der US- Immobilienmarkt in einem Besorgnis erregenden Zustand ist. In den nach New York zehn größten US- Städten machen Zwangsvollstreckungen 56% der Immobilienangebote aus (23), wobei Städte wie Los Angeles (zweitgrößte Stadt der USA nach New York) oder Chicago (drittgrößte) einen Anteil von 67% erreichen, von Städten wie Detroit oder Miami gar nicht zu reden, wo der Anteil bei ungefähr 75% liegt. Auffallend ist auch die hohe Zahl der Angebote, für die die Preise gesenkt wurden. Lediglich der New Yorker Immobilienmarkt scheint in guter Verfassung zu sein; es gibt kaum Zwangsvollstreckungen und die Preise tendieren nach oben. Genau so wenig wie 2009 sollte man also darauf vertrauen, dass der Preisanstieg von Dauer ist. Wieder einmal versuchen verantwortliche Stellen in den USA die Öffentlichkeit über den wahren Zustand der Wirtschaft und des Immobilienmarkts zu täuschen. Und wie immer bei Täuschungen, wenn sie erst einmal aufgedeckt sind, geben sie den Blick frei auf eine Wirklichkeit, die bei Weitem schlimmer ist als man es sich vorgestellt hätte. Dann ist der Boden für Panik bereitet. Erinnern wir uns doch nur an Lehman Brothers. In nur wenigen Stunden musste die Welt von "Alles im grünen Bereich" auf "Alarmstufe Rot" umschalten. --------- Noten: (1) Quellen: New York Times, 25/09/2012; La Tribune, 01/10/2012 (2) In den Koalitionen, die die westlichen Staaten zur Durchsetzung ihrer geopolitischen Ziele eingehen, geht inzwischen alles drunter und drüber: In Syrien unterstützen Saudi- Arabien und Katar die angeblichen pro- westlichen Kräfte, die mit dem Assadregime im Krieg liegen; hingegen beliefern diese Länder im Norden der Sahelzone die Rebellen mit Waffen, gegen die Soldaten der Afrikanischen Union zu Feld ziehen sollen und dabei von der NATO unterstützt werden. Geostrategische Spagate dieser Art können nicht sehr lange durchgehalten werden - es sei denn, man glaubt, die saudi- arabischen Petro- Dollar können unbegrenzt Washington an der Kandare halten, wie Katar es mit Frankreich versucht und Kuweit und Dubai es schon mit Großbritannien geschafft haben. Quelle: France 24, 29/09/2012, (3) Und diese "lauwarmen" Konflikte haben bereits spürbare und schmerzhafte Folgen: Verletzte bei anti-japanischen Krawallen, Erliegen einiger bedeutender wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten zwischen den beiden großen asiatischen Wirtschafts- und Handelsmächten mit weltweiter Bedeutung (China und Japan), insbesondere im Autobau, beim Fremdenverkehr, Elektronik und öffentlichen Aufträgen. Die Rechnung dürfte teuer werden und lange noch nachwirken. In den Statistiken kann man die Folgen allerdings noch nicht nachweisen. (4) Quellen: CNBC, 27/09/2012; Mish's, 27/09/2012 (5) Sogar die Vorstände der Fed räumen inzwischen ein, dass sie den vollen Durchblick über die wirtschaftliche Lage in den USA eigentlich nicht mehr haben. Quelle: Les Echos, 20/09/2012 (6) Quelle: The Hill, 28/09/2012 (7) Quelle: Deusche Welle, 20/09/2012 (8) Quelle: New York Times, 24/09/2012 (9) Quelle: Deutsche Welle, 04/10/2012 (10) Japan stellt sich immer drängender die Frage, welchen Mehrwert es für die nächsten 10 bis 20 Jahre daraus zieht, weiterhin unverbrüchlich an der Seite der USA zu stehen. Eine Zeitspanne von zehn bis zwanzig Jahre sind die kleinstmöglichen Zeiträume, die angesichts einer solchen historischen Entscheidung über Aufgabe oder Aufrechterhaltung einer Sonderbeziehung zu berücksichtigen sind. Und dennoch sind jetzt und heute wichtige Entscheidungen notwendig. Kein Wunder, dass die japanischen Nationalisten versuchen, den Streit um die Inseln auf die Spitze zu treiben. Quelle: Le Monde, 26/09/2012; Caixin, 24/09/2012 (11) Der Dollar ist dabei, für China sein Status als Währung für Ölkäufe zu verlieren und wird insoweit vom Yuan ersetzt. Quelle: The Examiner, 12/09/2012 (12) Quelle: CNBC, 04/10/2012 (13) Quelle: China Daily, 25/09/2012; Les Echos, 02/10/2012 (14) Quelle: Libération, 25/09/2012; La Tribune, 04/10/2012 (15) Wie wir es vorhergesehen hatten und ganz im Gegensatz zu der überwiegend veröffentlichten Meinung über das Ende des Euro, den Austritt Griechenlands aus der Eurozone und andere Dummheiten, die beweisen, falls es eines Beweis überhaupt noch bedurfte, dass Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und andere wesensverwandte Experten gut beraten wären, ihre Kenntnisse in anderen Disziplinen zu erweitern, insbesondere in Politik, Geopolitik, Antizipation und den Funktionsweisen von Netzwerken und komplexen Systemen. Es würde ihrer Weitsicht auch sicherlich zu Gute kommen, wenn sie aufhörten, hinter ihrer Fassade der Wissenschaftlichkeit mehr oder weniger offen besondere wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Interessen zu vertreten. Nicht nur im Gesundheitsbereich und bei der Begutachtung von Medikamenten gibt es häufig Interessenkonflikte. Noch eine letzte Bemerkung sei uns gestattet: Weiterhin den Wirtschaftsnobelpreis immer und immer wieder an Amerikaner zu verleihen, wie auch dieses Jahr, ist nichts weiter als der Beweis der Blindheit, mit der eine ganze Disziplin geschlagen ist. Die gegenwärtige Krise ist der Beweis für das vollständige Scheitern des Wirtschaftsdenken, wie es im Westen seit 1945 dominierend war; und dennoch bringt man den Arbeiten und Forschungen von Universitäten und Wissenschaftlern, die seit 60 Jahren komplett auf dem Holzweg waren, den höchsten Respekt entgegen. Wäre so etwas in der Physik oder der Chemie denkbar? Dass Forscher ausgezeichnet werden, deren Hypothesen sich ständig als falsch herausstellen und die keine einzige in Versuchen zu belegen vermögen? Das zeigt, wie sehr dieser Wirtschaftsnobelpreis ein Marketingprodukt einer Ideologie ist, nicht anders als der Friedensnobelpreis (Obama, EU...?) (16) Quellen: PressEurop, 12/10/2012; La Tribune, 12/10/2012 (17) Quellen: PressEurop, 20/09/2012; Der Spiegel, 15/10/2012 (18) Quelle : CNNmoney (19) Vgl. z.B. The Niche Report, 05/09/2012. (20) Quelle: AOL real estate, 13/07/2012. (21) Quelle: Washington Post, 24/06/2012. (22) Einer der größten Immobiliennetzauftritte und einer, mit dem es möglich ist, die angebotenen Zwangsvollstreckungen herauszufiltern und damit ihre Zahl zu ermitteln. (23) 88 200 Zwangsvollstreckungen von 157 500 Angeboten. |
| Adrian Gilbert: Ancient Relics & Mysteries Posted: 16 Oct 2012 09:31 AM PDT In the middle two hours of Monday's show, researcher and writer on the subject of ancient mysteries, Adrian Gilbert, discussed the legacy of objects such as the the Stone of Destiny, and the Ark of the Covenant, as well as delved into stargates and prophecy. According to legend, the Stone of Destiny (which currently is displayed at Edinburgh Castle in Scotland) was originally the stone that the biblical prophet Jacob slept on when he had a dream about angels going up and down a ladder. The stone seems to have ominous properties, said Gilbert, comparing it to the Spear of Destiny, which was said to have pierced Jesus Christ. When the Stone of Destiny was in Ireland, it was said to cry out when the right person stood on it who was meant to be King (though Gilbert conjectured it was probably the people nearby who were crying out). While some relics themselves may not be magical, they can make a link or connect someone to a saint, prophet, or holy person associated with them, he commented. Regarding the Ark of the Covenant, he doubts that the wood object still survives. Because it was covered with gold leaf, when sunlight hit it, it may have given off a strong electrostatic charge, which would account for its unusual properties, he theorized. Gilbert spoke about stargates, which he characterized as specific places in the sky that act as time-markers for the long cycle known as the precession of the equinoxes. We are currently at the end of one cycle, which has been designated by the Mayan calendar, he noted. He believes that the "opening" of the stargate on 12/21/12 will herald a catastrophic war in the Middle East, and events foreseen in the Book of Revelation. Entrepreneurial Techniques: from kVPbA1lcr_DTeQWOZkjhxA: ~TVR |
| 2 High-Flying Stocks With Heavy Insider Selling In October Posted: 16 Oct 2012 08:47 AM PDT By Bret Jensen: One of the items I peruse every weekend is the insider transactions section in Barron's. Each week the magazine lists the top 20 stocks that have the heaviest insider buying by dollar volume and it provides the same format for insider selling as well. I find it is a good source for finding long ideas that insiders are buying. Conversely, I like to know if any of my long selections have had recent heavy insider selling. Significant insider selling can also be a good starting point for research into possible short positions. Here are two stocks on this week's top 20 insider selling list (#1 and lucky number #13) that look substantially overvalued. LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) operates the largest online professional network in the world. Four reasons LNKD insiders are right and the shares are overvalued at $110 a share:
Complete Story » |
| Gold And Silver: The Most Important Data Since QE3 Posted: 16 Oct 2012 08:21 AM PDT By Nigam Arora: Gold and silver have been running since the announcement of QE3. Gold bulls contend that QE3 is highly inflationary. Further, there is precedent of precious metals running after QE1 and QE2. In the hoopla of excitement about QE3, it was lost on gold and silver investors that QE3 is very different from QE1 and QE2. In QE3, the Federal Reserve is buying mortgage backed securities (MBS). The Federal Reserve's buying of MBS is not the same as government spending. In this respect, the common connotation given to 'printing presses' is a misnomer. The common thinking is that the Federal Reserve creates money and gets nothing back of value in return, therefore the belief that it will cause inflation. MBS purchases by the Federal Reserve are purchases of great value. An MBS is simply a pool of mortgages on real property. In momentum investing, factual differences between QE3 and prior QE Complete Story » |
| ‘Transflation': Move of wealth from poor to JP Morgan Posted: 16 Oct 2012 08:02 AM PDT 'Transflation': Move of wealth from poor to JP Morgan In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss banksters having the 'eyes of used enema resellers' as 'transflation' rages and the bond markets teeter on the verge of collapse. In the second half of the show, Max Keiser talks to a former fraud squad detective, Rowan Bosworth-Davies of Rowans-blog.blogspot.co.uk, about the organized criminal conspiracy and racket happening right now in the City of London and why the police are not allowed to investigate without approval from politicians. from russiatoday: ~TVR |
| Keiser Report: Enema of the State Posted: 16 Oct 2012 08:00 AM PDT In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss banksters having the 'eyes of used enema resellers' as 'transflation' rages and the bond markets teeter on the verge of collapse. In the second half of the show, Max Keiser talks to a former fraud squad detective, Rowan Bosworth-Davies of Rowans-blog.blogspot.co.uk, about the organized criminal conspiracy and racket happening right now in the City of London and why the police are not allowed to investigate without approval from politicians. from russiatoday: ~TVR |
| Fed policy: good for gold but bad for the economy Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:45 AM PDT As a student (and teacher) of the Austrian School of economics, I despise the interventionist ways of the Federal Reserve. But as a gold investor, I appreciate the Federal Reserve's ... |
| Greg: Gold And Silver Fall, Stocks Soon To Follow. Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:41 AM PDT |
| Here Is What To Focus On In The Gold Market Right Now Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:38 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today legendary value investor Jean-Marie Eveillard spoke with King World about the pull back we are seeing in the gold market right now. Eveillard, who oversees $60 billion, also covered comments that came out of the Fed today and how they are supportive for the gold market. Here is what Eveillard had to say: "Yes we've had a few disappointing days, but the price of gold had gone up before that. We have, so far, a minor correction. Had gold become too popular at close to $1,800? I don't think so, but the thing about gold, you always have the short-term players, usually with leverage, in the futures market." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Here Is What To Look For Next On Gold, Silver & Oil Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:36 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Tom Fitzpatrick has just released an update on both the gold and crude oil markets. Fitzpatrick has been astonishingly accurate in forecasting the movements of gold and silver. Keep in mind that Fitzpatrick had been calling for gold to correct after hitting the $1,791 level that he predicted would act as resistance. Now he lets KWN readers globally know what to expect next since gold has weakened. Remember, silver should trade with gold. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| The March to Silver Price Equilibrium Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:34 AM PDT Although deficit funding has been fueling the latest precious metal's rally, it is not hard to imagine the current CFTC investigation into manipulation in the silver market lasting 20 years, as it effectively acts as a yet another kind of price control. |
| Euro Rallies On Spain Optimism: Too Early To Call A Bottom? Posted: 16 Oct 2012 07:31 AM PDT By FXstreet: The euro rallied versus the dollar and overtook the 1.3000 handle on Tuesday propelled by more supportive comments about Greece, news reports suggesting that Spain is preparing to make the rescue request, and a mixed German ZEW survey. However, the stronger EUR/USD move came after a report said that German lawmakers are open to Spain seeking a precautionary credit line from Europe's rescue fund, indicating a rolling back of German resistance to a full sovereign bailout for Spain. Stocks in Europe and the US were also supported by the positive market mood and by some strong earnings reports in pre-market trading. In the macroeconomic domain, US consumer price index rose mainly in line with expectations but remained at non-threatening levels. However, as the Fed has stated that inflation is not a concern right now, with today's figures backing that idea, the impact on the market was minimized. Euro nears key Complete Story » |
| Gold 'Could See Deeper Downside' as 'Uptrend Remains' Posted: 16 Oct 2012 05:27 AM PDT Spot market prices to buy gold regained some ground Tuesday morning after dropping to a one-month low below $1,730 per ounce, gold's lowest level since the US Federal Reserve announced open-ended quantitative easing last month. |
| Investors’ asset allocation is key gold price determinant Posted: 16 Oct 2012 05:00 AM PDT Private investor Dr John Wolstencroft talks to GoldMoney's Dominic Frisby about what really drives the gold price. They discuss the supply structure for gold and asset allocation towards the ... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Copper, Crude Oil Set Sights on Industrial Production Posted: 16 Oct 2012 04:54 AM PDT Commodity prices are treading water in overnight trade, looking past a reactionary rally across Asian stock exchanges in the wake of yesterday's better-than-expected US retail sales data. The release proved to weigh on gold and silver. |
| Posted: 16 Oct 2012 03:31 AM PDT New Zealand's 'Transgender' Bellbird Could Be The World's First Huffington Post (Carol B). Um, Google "intersex". Rising sea levels threaten US coastline Aljazeera (Aquifer). From the renown scientist Jay Leonhart:
Bill McKibbon on Bill Maher LiveLeak (Joel B) Illegal Scheme Exemplifies Threat of Geoengineering Common Dream (Aquifer) Male Shoppers Outdo Women as Web Offers Haven From Mall Bloomberg. Who are these people who like shopping, or worse, fashion? Fashion is an abuse inflicted on women. I'm at a loss to understand why men would embrace it. Plus Galbraith pere was right, consuming is work. Signature vs. seal Language Log (Lance N). Ah, yes, I used a seal at Sumitomo, it was satisfying in a peculiar way. How a single DMCA notice took down 1.45 million education blogs ars technica (Lambert) Fukushima citizen, "We didn't see bugs this summer, children are made carry a portable shrine in black rain" and Infantile disease respiratory syncytial virus infection is spiking up in Japan, "Highest in past 10 years" Fukushima Diary (martha r) Ground under Fukushima Unit 4 sinking, structure on verge of complete collapse YouTube (furzy mouse) Giant Walmart vs the small farmer Asian Age (Aquifer) Good bean counters? Starbucks has paid no tax in UK since 2009 Independent (Chuck L) Rebekah Brooks received £7m pay-off Financial Times The labor market is not self-regulating; governments must support worker's fight for higher wages Real News (Aquifer). An interview with Heiner Flassbeck, who I've seen speak and am sure readers will enjoy. The Week the World Stood Still, The Cuban Missile Crisis and Ownership of the World Noam Chomsky, Tom Engelhardt Matt Taibbi: The Romney-Ryan tax plan should be laughed at Raw Story Ryan and Romney's Secret Plan to Cut the Deficit – and why Romney opposes it Bill Black, New Economic Perspectives. Surreal. Hippie punching for dummies Susie Madrak. These bears are getting better and better….because the underlying situation is getting worse and worse. Four Questions About Retirement For The Presidential Town Hall And Debate Helaine Olen Study suggests privatized Medicare would raise rates Associated Press. Look, I don't understand why this is so hard to figure out. The plan in both parties is to have old people die faster, and I'm not talking about the last two weeks of life dehumanizing and costly medical interventions. NYT Admits: We Have Not "Aggressively Challenged" Obama on Drones Common Dreams (Aquifer). The last time I checked, the Pope was also Catholic. United States Only First-World Country Without Mandatory Paid Medical Leave: 'A Human Rights Issue' Huffington Post (Carol B) Why Youth Shouldn't Try Until They're 35 Captain Capitalism Romney is shocked to learn how the Fed creates money Bill Black, New Economic Perspectives Housing Recovery in Perspective Taegan Goddard (furzy mouse). And that's before you get to the manipulation of inventories by servicers… What is Socialism? Look No Further Than Your Public Library Ohio Barbarian, Firedoglake (furzy mouse) Student Loan Servicing Complaints Are 'Early Warning' Huffington Post What JP Morgan's release of VaR has in common with sex and computer viruses Nick Dunbar (Richard Smith) Unemployment Stories, Vol. 12: 'The World Is Filled with People Who Just Don't Give a Crap' Gawker * * * Mission elapsed time: T + 38 and counting* Usura rusteth the chisel It rusteth the craft and the craftsman It gnaweth the thread in the loom –Ezra Pound, Canto XLV Montreal. Corruption: "Lino Zambito says he passed thousands of dollars to Benoit Labonté in 2009 and to Line Beauchamp for a fundraiser and he's currently talking about mayoral kickbacks in Laval. His testimony has also now touched Loto-Quebec. Every time the guy opens his mouth, somebody takes a fall. It's amazing." CA. Corruption: "Port [of Oakland] commissioners met in an emergency closed session Maritime Director James Kwon and his $4,537 bill for a 'drink and dinner reception' at Treasures, an upscale gentlemen's club [in Houston]." … Gaffe: "Assemblyman Mike Morrell's opponent released videotaped remarks of a campaign speech in which the R incumbent said that government officials 'should be shot' for how they handle tax money." Is this the withering away of the state part? FL. Charters: "A Miami newspaper reports that [here] Chinese investors are pouring millions of dollars into Florida charter schools. By investing, they get a green card under a federal program that rewards investors who put up large sums." I never know which synonym to file these stories under: "charters" or "corruption." IA. Handmaid's Tale: "Merlin Bartz is an IA State Senator who carries around an unusual picture of his opponent, State Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm. The photo is a life-size legless paper doll. At public events he sets his creepy companion in a chair next to him. If Senator Wilhelm arrives at the event, she has to move it so she can sit down." Nice! … Demonization: "'I'm convinced that if we had more potlucks in Congress we would get more done,' U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley said Monday. 'If you get to know somebody, it's harder to go out onto the floor and demonize them.'" IL. Charters: "OK, charterheads–let's have a truce… I'll stop comparing charters with unionized special-enrollment schools–which limit enrollment to the highest-scoring test takers–if you stop comparing charters with unionized neighborhood schools." Heh, snark watch: "Charterheads." … Corruption: "U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign finances are the subject of a federal probe after the congressman allegedly improperly used campaign money to decorate his home." MD. Corruption: "Developers and shopping-center owners have contributed more than $225,000 to efforts to challenge zoning decisions in Baltimore County through referendums, financial disclosure forms show." ME. Ladies of negotiable affection: "The Kennebunk Police Department on Monday released a partial list of men summoned on charges of soliciting a woman accused of running a prostitution operation out of a Kennebunk Zumba studio. The list includes just the first and last names of 21 men." So why release them at all, then? How many "John Does" are there in the Northeast? Hundreds? … Democrats: "As a Democratic 'activist,' I had no uncertainty about who I'd pick for U.S. Senate: independent Angus King. [Cynthia Dill] is the Dennis Kucinich of our party: correct on the issues but without a snowball's chance of being elected." Tells you all you need to know about "Democratic activists" and Democrats generally, doesn't it? Don't turn your back on them! … Bellwether: "'If Romney does have a chance in Maine's Second District," Mr. [Ethan] Strimling [of the BDN] said, 'then Obama is in a lot of trouble'" (pretty good for Izvestia!) MI. Banksters: "The class-action lawsuit [against Morgan Stanley] filed today on behalf of [five current and former Detroit residents] by the American Civil Liberties Union and others claims the company violated state and federal civil rights laws and was the principal financier 'to one of the most aggressive and dangerous predatory lenders,' a now bankrupt company called New Century" (HB). And by "bankrupt" we mean "the executives got away clean with the loot." NV. Water: "[Lawncare owner Gary] Hirsch says he's also seeing more and more homeowners change to xeroscaping in order to reduce water and maintenance costs." NY. Corruption: " A former St. John's University student testified Monday that she cooked, cleaned and did laundry for her former dean [Dr. Cecilia Chang] because she feared losing her scholarship." … Socialism & Liberation Party: "[PETA LINDSAY]: It's strange to me the Ds feel so entitled to the votes of progressive people when they don't do anything that progressive people want them to do. As Eugene Debs said, 'I'd rather vote for what I want and not get it than vote for what I don't want and get it." …. Fracking: "Like others who favor hydrofracking, [Chinese immigrant Douglas] Lee believes that preventing someone from leasing land for the mineral rights was equivalent to a government seizure of one's property." … Fracking: Jobs! OH. Corruption: "OH's state watchdog hasn't yet released an investigative report on the investment scandal that engulfed Ohio in 2005 — and critics want to know why. The Coingate scandal began in 2005 when reporting by The Blade showed that the Ohio Bureau of Workers' Compensation was investing $50 million in rare coins through R donor Tom Noe. Noe is now serving 18 years in prison for theft and other crimes." (Interestingly, Noe's wife, Bernadette, was responsible for Diebold e-voting machines not leaving a paper trail in Lucas County, 2004). … Swing state Keynesianism: "So why has Mitt Romney not been able to move the numbers in OH? OH voters support the auto bailout by a 54% to 37% margin, and with independents that number is 58% to 35%. 79% consider it to be an "important" issue, and 42% consider it to be a "very important" issue. Think it is impacting this race? The President used his weekly address to talk about the reemergence of the American auto industry." PA. Obituaries: "May the Scottish Haggis have many laughs wherever he may travel" (the post, and the source, will surprise you. Unless you're a sociopath, compassion is a virtue. (Then again, "moderate"? Or just annoying?) … Scranton writes Obama a letter: "I know you hate it when I bring him up, but why can't you be more like Bill? He doesn't visit often, but when he does, it's a party. When he says he loves me, I know he doesn't mean it, but I just don't care. If you bump into the big lug out on the trail, tell him to call me. And Hillary doesn't need to know, OK?" … Unions: "[Philadelphia's] Mayor Nutter has been getting lots of national attention lately as an Obama surrogate, while [sic] battling at home with one of the party's biggest constituencies – labor unions." TX. Pipelines: "[T]he Winnsboro tree blockaders are resupplying their friends in the trees with fresh food, water and cameras despite the threat of a newly-expanded Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation (SLAPP) by TransCanada and criminal overcharges by local law enforcement. Due to the SLAPP suits' outrageous claims, the tree sitters have by-and-large felt too threatened to safely reveal their identities, despite their protest being nonviolent." … Corruption: "In 2007, the state's voters elected to create [the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas], authorizing the state provide it with $3 billion over 10 years. After [its] chief scientist, [Nobelist] Dr. Alfred Gilman, [resigned] in May, the agency's eight principal scientific reviewers all followed suit last week. Gilman's resignation followed a decision by the institute's oversight committee to set aside scientific grant proposals and rush approval of an $18 million commercialization grant led by the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center." Good for Gilman!' … MOOCs: " As expected the University of Texas System Board of Regents unanimously approved a new systemwide partnership with edX, a provider of massive open online courses, on Monday." VA. Public goods: "'[The UVa putsch] stands out as the most abrupt and the most opaque and the only one with presidential reinstatement at its conclusion,' [said Hunter R. Rawlings III, president of the Association of American Universities.] 'Money was at the center of the maelstrom. The old public compact we had in this country is now close to broken. After a certain point, the public stops listening and we're very close to that point now.'" VT. Food: "About 1,500 jobs would be created over the next decade if residents double their consumption of locally produced food, [the Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund] report estimated. Between 2010 and 2011, about 497 jobs were added, said the group, which is expected to release new figures in January." This too is supply chain activism. Outside baseball. Ladies of negotiable affection: "Dania Suarez will recount the chain of events that ensnared more than a dozen agents and members of the U.S. military in the upcoming memoir, which is tentatively titled 'Room Service.'" How a propos. I still think Suarez should run for President of Columbia. … Fracking: "The World Bank estimates that in ND alone, natural gas flares produce the same amount of global warming pollution as 2.5 million cars. Across the board, the oil and gas industry wastes two to three percent of all the natural gas in the country, according to the EPA, due to flaring, leaks and other waste. Other experts think this number is even higher, and that unconventional gas production, like fracking, wastes up to 8 percent." Because freedom! … Fracking: "There is not yet an integrated worldwide system for moving natural gas wherever the price is highest. In North America natural gas is essentially a regional product. It can be moved via pipeline between the United States, Canada and Mexico, but there it stops. For that reason the glut of natural gas caused by overdrilling of newly available shale gas deposits has brought prices down dramatically." So we're building pipelines why? (This is another "supply chain justice" issue.) … Charters: "Because charters are now an organized 'movement' on behalf of ending public education (plus every other public enterprise?) without any interest in carrying out a nearly 60-year-old U.S. Supreme Court mandate (to integrate schools), it's important to expose them. They are also strong supporters, as a movement, for testing, high stakes, merit pay, and ending unions." Because the children! … Voting: "There have been a growing number of claims that political elites have used a false residence to vote, often to insure their own elections in a district where they do not reside." ("Residency fraud is an elite fraud because you've got to own at least two homes to do it!) The trail. Polls: "Romney has opened a 5% lead over Obama in the 12 battleground states that are critical to determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday" (true, just one poll). … Women: "[F]emale voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney." Nice going, Joe. … Polls: " Obama's chances of winning the Electoral College are now 66.0%, according to the FiveThirtyEight model, up from 63.4% on Sunday" (Nate Silver). Obama/Romney Debate II. Format: "The 90-minute Hofsta showdown will be a 'town hall,' with questions on foreign and domestic policy coming from Crowley and an audience of about 80 uncommitted voters from around the Hempstead area selected by Gallup." … Moderator: "[N]either campaign is looking for Ms. Crowley, a veteran political journalist, to press their candidates with tough follow-ups to whatever questions are put forth by the audience of undecided and persuadable voters at Hofstra." … Expectations: "Watch for an 'Obama Comeback' narrative to drive the Wednesday through Friday news cycles. There's no way that the president performs as poorly as he did in Denver." … The political class: "Both campaigns are terrified at anything even remotely spontaneous happening." The Romney. Ryan: "Ryan walked into the dining hall on Saturday to take a picture and according to the president of the St. Vincent De Paul Society, it was without permission. Ryan made the appearance after a town hall forum at Youngstown State University. Brian Antal told the Washington Post the organization's bylaws do not allow them to get involved in politics. But he said the pictures were staged and are not accurate, and that all Ryan did was pick up a clean metal pan, pretend to wash it and then leave after the picture was taken." (There's a history here: NC 2012-06-09.] The Obama. Money: "Despite the fact that Paul once raised almost twice as much as Obama did from the military, the president has received $536,414 from military donors, compared to Paul's $399,274 and Romney's $287,435, according to research by the Center for Responsive Politics. These numbers are based on donations greater than $200." … Money: "[BIDEN: With "the guy I serve with, it depends on only one thing: his word. What he says, he does." Well, for the audience of donors, this could even be true. * Slogan of the day: The Whole Country Is Singing With Joy! * * * Antidote du jour:
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| John Dizard...Financial Times...As Money Hides Away, Gold Heads for a Blow Off Posted: 16 Oct 2012 03:20 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt should come as no surprise that all four precious metals got sold off the moment that the Globex trading system opened for business in New York at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Sunday night...with the biggest declines coming in both gold and silver. The only surprise, at least to me, was that JPMorgan et al didn't press their advantage even more in the thinly-traded Far East market on their Monday. From that smallish drop, the gold price traded sideways until around lunchtime in Hong Kong...and the developed a bit of a positive bias from there. That all ended shortly before the Comex open at 8:20 a.m. in New York...and gold 'fell' in three steps down to its low tick of the day, which was $1,727.50 spot, which came at precisely 10:30 a.m. Eastern. From there gold rallied a bit until about 12:40 p.m. in New York...and then traded pretty much ruler flat into the 5:15 p.m. Comex close. The gold price finished at $1,737.40 spot...down $16.90 on the day. Not surprisingly, the volume was a pretty decent 189,000 contracts...as sell stops got hit, and some technical fund/small trader longs were forced to dump their positions...while "da boyz" rang the cash register one more time.
The silver chart was pretty much a carbon copy of the gold chart, so I shan't dwell on it further. And, like gold, the low price tick came at precisely 10:30 a.m. in New York...and that was $32.46 spot. Silver had an intraday move of a bit over a dollar. Silver closed at $32.70 spot...down 78 cents on the day. Volume was pretty decent...but not overly high at around 42,500 contracts...and I found that somewhat surprising, as I was expecting much bigger volume than that considering the price move.
The dollar index began to rally at the same time as the gold and silver prices headed south on Sunday night...but the declines in the precious metals were done long before the dollar index hit its zenith in the Far East. The high tick was around 79.96...and the index held in there until shortly after 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...which was about an hour before the 8:00 a.m. BST London open. From that point, the dollar index rolled over...and by around 7:10 a.m. Eastern, hit its nadir...around 79.62...a drop of 34 basis points from its high. From that low, the index rallied to its New York high of 79.82...and that event occurred at 10:30 a.m. precisely, which was the precise low for gold and silver as well. That's just too cute for words, isn't it? Then the dollar index sold off a bit into the close and finished the trading day at 79.76...up the magnificent sum of 7 basis points from Friday's close. The dollar rally at the Sunday night open looked like an engineered afterthought, as the PMs were at their lows long before the index topped out. You will carefully note that the 30 plus basis point decline in the index during London trading had zero impact on the gold price...but the 20 basis point rally between 7:10 and 10:30 a.m. in New York, carved over twenty bucks off the gold price and 70 cents off the silver price. Hmmmm.....
Even though the gold stocks opened lower, they attempted to rally almost immediately, before getting sold down to their 10:20 a.m. New York low. From there, they rallied in fits and starts for the rest of the New York trading session...but rallied strongly in the last hour to finish only a hair lower on the day, as the HUI was only down 0.22%. I was impressed.
Despite the pounding that silver took, the stocks that mattered put in a surprisingly strong performance, although some the junior producers took a hit. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index actually closed up 0.10%!!! As you can imagine, that was a surprise as well.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 37 gold and only 2 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday. For the most part, it was all the 'usual suspects' that were the issuers and stoppers. Both GLD and SLV showed withdrawals yesterday. GLD declined by 213,228 troy ounces...and SLV declined by 290,558 troy ounces. There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. Friday was another active day over at the Comex-approved depositories, as 342,399 troy ounces of silver were received...and 693,477 ounces were shipped out. All of the received silver went into JPMorgan's depository once again. They now hold 24,154,328 troy ounces of the stuff. The link to Friday's activity is here. Australian reader Wesley Legrand asked me to mention The Gold Symposium 2012 that's being held on Monday and Tuesday of next week [22 October and 23 October] in Sydney, Australia. For any readers living in the area...or prepared to make the trip "down under", it would be more than worth your while if you could find the time to attend...and you can find out everything about this conference by clicking here. Here's the 6-month dollar chart. I've been watching the dollar index carefully during its attempted 'rally' above the 80.00 mark...and as you can see from the chart, it has never been able to close above that level, including the attempt in Far East trading yesterday. It appears, at least at the moment, that this attempt will fail, unless there is some sort of 'divine intervention'. by "da boyz". You will also note that the 50-day moving average has finally dropped below the 200-day moving average.
I will be watching developments with great interest. Being a Tuesday column, I have a lot of reading material for you today...and the final edit will be up to you. The short positions held by market-making members of the LBMA are the 800 pound gorillas in the living room. New York Post: Ben's gold touch...148% rise on QE. Casey Research: $2,300 Gold, Here We Come. Vietnam's central bank unable to lay hands on privately-held gold. Perth Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales Surge. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeMauldin: Thoughts From the Frontline...We're Headed for an Economic Black Hole"Concern about politics and the processes of international co-operation is warranted but the best one can hope for from politics in any country is that it will drive rational responses to serious problems. If there is no consensus on the causes or solutions to serious problems, it is unreasonable to ask a political system to implement forceful actions in a sustained way. Unfortunately, this is to an important extent the case with respect to current economic difficulties, especially in the industrial world. I think we can draw a rough parallel between a black hole and our current global economic situation. (For physicists this will be a very rough parallel indeed, but work with me, please.) An economic bubble of any type, but especially a debt bubble, can be thought of as an incipient black hole. When the bubble collapses in upon itself, it creates its own black hole with an event horizon beyond which all traditional economic modeling breaks down. Any economic theory that does not attempt to transcend the event horizon associated with excessive debt will be incapable of offering a viable solution to an economic crisis. Even worse, it is likely that any proposed solution will make the crisis more severe. This very long commentary by John was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site late yesterday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering in today's column. The link is here.  The Presidential Campaigns Know What You're Reading OnlineWhether you like it or not, the Obama and Romney campaigns have been using cookies and data miners to track what you're up to on the web. You know when those phone jockeys from Obama for America or Romney for President catch you at home working on your fantasy football team? Chances are they probably know all about your fantasy football habits and your voting record and your friends and your porn habits. This is the hyper-connected 21st-century, after all. Even your political machine can be personalized. Of course, both campaigns swear that they're respecting people's privacy. "You don't want your analytical efforts to be obvious because voters get creeped out," a Romney campaign official told The Times. "A lot of what we're doing is behind the scenes." This story showed up on The Atlantic Wire on Sunday...and was picked up by the news.yahoo.com website...and I thank Alberta reader Jerome Cherry for sending it along. The link is here.  Rolling Stone: Mitt Romney's Tax DodgeHow does a private-equity kingpin worth at least $250 million pay a lower tax rate – just 14 percent – than many teachers and firemen? By exploiting tax loopholes that favor the rich and hiding his money in the world's most notorious havens for tax cheats. That's what Mitt Romney has done, according to his 2010 and 2011 tax returns, a trove of secret Bain Capital documents unearthed by Gawker, and exposés by Bloomberg and Vanity Fair. "The bottom line," says Rebecca Wilkins, senior counsel at Citizens for Tax Justice, "is that these are ways to reduce your taxes that are only available to rich people." Are Romney's tax dodges legal? It's impossible to say for sure, given how little he has disclosed. But tax experts note that there are plenty of red flags, including an investigation by New York prosecutors into tax abuses at Bain Capital that began on Romney's watch. "He aggressively exploits every loophole he can find," says Victor Fleischer, a professor of tax law at the University of Colorado. "He's pushing the limits of tax law beyond what many think is reasonable." Indeed, a look at Romney's finances reveals just how skilled he is at hiding his wealth – and paying a fraction of his fair share in taxes. This longish Rolling Stone magazine piece was posted on their website last Friday...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  U.S. Jails More People Than Any Other Country: Chart of the DayThe U.S. has the world's highest incarceration rate, with Department of Justice data showing more than 2.2 million people are behind bars, equal to a city the size of Houston. The Chart of the Day shows that, with a rate of 730 people per 100,000, the U.S. jails a higher proportion of its citizens than any other country, according to data from the International Centre for Prison Studies, an independent research center associated with England's University of Essex. This Bloomberg story was posted on their Internet site early on Monday morning Mountain Time...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for finding it. The chart is worth the trip even if you don't bother reading the article...and the link is here.  Rex Murphy: Did Obama cover-up the Benghazi attack?It's been a month since what were then described as "riots" in Benghazi escalated — so the story went — into a full-scale armed attack, and resulted in the murder of the American ambassador, Chris Stevens, and three others. At the time, almost all the talk and outrage was about a wretched video, the odd and amateur Innocence of Muslims, made by some crackpot in California. For days, the air was thick with remorse and apology over the Islamophobic film. The death of an ambassador, the storming of the consulate, the actual attack itself, got drowned in the fever of denunciation about a 14-minute film. Innocence of Muslims, in the view of everyone from Barack Obama, to Hillary Clinton, to Susan Rice, the US Ambassador to the UN, was one of the most contemptible and vile sets of moving images ever to convey images and sound. And yet, here in the West, mocking the fervour of religious "believers" (Christians, especially) is almost an official sport in entertainment and artistic circles — from Saturday Night Live to shows that are actually funny. And so the outrage and unction of Hillary and Obama on this file simply didn't ring true. Canada's premier political commentator weighs in on this debacle...and he's one man in this country that I would not care to argue with. Sharp as a tack...and with a photographic memory to boot. His commentary found a home on the nationalpost.com website on Saturday...and is worth the read. The link is here.  UBS CFO Says 550 Fired After $2.3 Billion Trading LossTom Naratil, chief financial officer of UBS AG, said the Swiss bank fired as many as 550 employees after it suffered a $2.3 billion loss from unauthorized trading last year. The bank's share price fell more than 10 percent on Sept. 15, 2011, the day the loss was announced, and employee morale suffered, Naratil testified yesterday at the London trial of Kweku Adoboli, the trader accused of causing the loss. "We did have layoffs that continued in the period following the unauthorized trading incident," Naratil said via video link from New York, with most of the cuts coming in November and December. Naratil is the most-senior UBS official to give evidence in the case so far. This Bloomberg story was posted on their website late yesterday afternoon Mountain Daylight Time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  Portugal unveils its harshest budget amid protestsPortugal's centre-right government presented its 2013 budget on Monday, which outlined the harshest measures yet under Lisbon's €78bn (£62.9bn) bailout. The budget will face immediate opposition from angry Portuguese, who plan to march on parliament to demand the resignation of the government and an end to austerity, which has sent Portugal into its worst recession since the 1970s. The 2013 budget is set to introduce sharp income tax hikes, which could amount to up to two or three months' wages for middle income workers, to ensure the country meets its budget goals under the bailout. Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar has described the planned tax increases as "enormous". Economists fear the tough measures, which will also include pension cuts, a financial transaction tax and higher property taxes, could push Portugal into a recessive spiral like Greece, further undermining Europe's German-inspired austerity drive for the euro's highly-indebted countries. This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday morning BST...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering in today's column. The link is here. Casey Research: $2,300 Gold, Here We Come Posted: 16 Oct 2012 03:20 AM PDT  Gold is not cheap, compared to the $200-per-ounce range of a decade ago. No argument. However, as our hockey-playing friends like to say, you don't skate to where the puck was, you skate to where the puck will be. In financial terms, the causes for the rise of the precious metals continue unabated - if not accelerating and indicating higher prices in the future. BIG GOLD's Jeff Clark throws caution to the wind and makes a price prediction in the article below. History is never linear for long, but I think Jeff's projection is quite reasonable. |
| New York Post: Ben's gold touch -- 148% rise on QE Posted: 16 Oct 2012 03:20 AM PDT  Ben Bernanke's move in early July to begin a third round of quantitative easing, or so-called QE3, has done little for economic growth, according to latest figures, but it has benefited gold, silver, and oil trading by cheapening the dollar, analysts say. "The dollar is selling off compared to gold because of the market's belief that the recent round of QE3 is going to cause a weaker dollar with investors bidding up gold prices," Mark Martiak, senior wealth strategist at New York-based Premier Financial Advisors, told The Post. And it's not just gold. Since the Fed chief announced the latest round, unleashing $40 billion a month to purchase mortgage bonds, the greenback has depreciated 10 percent against the euro. |
| Seven King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews Posted: 16 Oct 2012 03:20 AM PDT  Leading off today's 7-car parade is this blog with Michael Pento....and it's headlined "What to Expect Next With Gold & Silver Under Pressure". Next is Jean-Marie Eveillard. It's entitled "Here is What to Focus on in the Gold Market Right Now". In third place is a report by Martin Mesicek of Gold Source...the largest bullion dealer in Norway. It's headlined "read more |
| Silver Update: Barack Hoover Obama 10.15.12 Posted: 16 Oct 2012 02:42 AM PDT |
| An Ideal Way to Play the Fed's Loose Money Policies Posted: 16 Oct 2012 02:23 AM PDT Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) has endured a choppy stock market ride since May. And not surprisingly, its performance tracks price volatility of the red and yellow metals, its primary products. |
| Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT The Oil Drum |
| Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:14 AM PDT I am happy to run large, overweight positions in assets that have powerful momentum behind them and are breaching new highs by the day. I am not so happy to run such positions that have stalled or gone to sleep, and that is the case with gold. |
| Links for 2012-10-15 [del.icio.us] Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT
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| Chris Mayer: Monetary Mayhem in Myanmar Posted: 15 Oct 2012 03:12 PM PDT Finance Chiefs from around the world are concerned about another global recession, the eurozone crisis, the US fiscal cliff and a slowdown in major emerging economies. from capitalaccount: They can't seem to agree on what to do about these concerns however. This is according to accounts from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg citing news from the IMF's gathering over the weekend. Now, news from the IMF is naturally a "Big Picture" deal, but it's easy to lose sight of the nuances in the global economy when one focuses on multi-national corporations or global policy institutions. This brings us to a topic that we cover today with our guest Chris Mayer, author of Capital & Crisis. Chris travels the world looking for investment opportunities, and his travels recently had him visiting a country that most americans know about mainly through stories of self-emolating monks or sectarian tensions. This country is Myanmar, and it presents some interesting opportunities for investing, as well as one very interesting feature of "monetary mayhem," as Chris Mayer puts it. Apparently, the only foreign currency the people of Myanmar accept is the US dollar, despite all of its problems with only one caveat. The dollars must be in mint condition, and we do mean mint…not even creased dollars are accepted! And, is the CEO of Morgan Stanley a "reformer" relative to his too big to fail peers, as he is reportedly trying to get the bank to run a less risky, less complex bank model? That's how he's been cast by some in the mainstream press, but what about banks that have stuck to conservative, vanilla banking even during the boom times? Some of these banks have survived despite losing major market share to financial sausage factories like JP Morgan for example. How does this work, and are there investment opportunities for what our guest Chris Mayer calls, Depression-Proof banks? Chris Mayer, author of "World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents," joins us for the show to discuss all of these topics and more! And last but not least, in today's "Loose Change," Lauren and Demetri tackle the latest absurd comments uttered by Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke, who recently spoke out against "the benefits of currency management." He slammed emerging economies like China and Brazil, which are resisting pressures on their appreciating currencies by soaking up the excess dollars printed by Bernanke and his ilk through their own money printing. Is this a case of do as I say not as I do? Or is Bernanke really this clueless? And what about Europe? The latest news from the content that bore the greatest tales of feudalism is that we may actually be witnessing the birth of feudalism 2.0. Demetri explains how the death of bankruptcy law and sovereign default has moved the world closer to what we lived under during the middle ages. ~TVR |
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