A unique and safe way to buy gold and silver 2013 Passport To Freedom Residency Kit
Buy Gold & Silver With Bitcoins!

Monday, October 15, 2012

saveyourassetsfirst3

saveyourassetsfirst3


U.S. Borrowed 31 Cents Of Each $1 Spent In Fiscal 2012: Final Deficit Is $1.1 Trillion

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 01:11 PM PDT

By Kirk Lindstrom:

On Friday, October 12, 2012, the U.S. Treasury Department reported (pdf) that the U.S. Government had a budget surplus of $75.02 billion for the month of September. The bad news is the U.S. Government had a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion for the full fiscal year that ended in September.

All this borrowing by the government is supported by the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding interest rates extraordinarily low. Adding in the Fed's programs of quantitative easing to buy U.S. debt and expand the Fed's balance sheet gave the Fed its intended effect of "reflating the economy" by pushing asset prices higher. The exchange traded fund for Gold (GLD) gained 4.78% over the past year while stocks in the S&P500 (SPY) have surged over 21%.

(SPY is the exchange traded fund for the S&P500)

For the month of September 2012, the U.S. government had its second and largest surplus of the


Complete Story »

Weekly Stock Watch, Week Of 15 October, 2012

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 01:10 PM PDT

By VFC:

At the conclusion of each week, VFC's Stock House examines some news items, stocks and stories that made headlines during the previous trading week, but may also make headlines or influence trends during the upcoming week as well.

Weeks of speculation regarding an earnings season market meltdown started to play out to form last week, as each of the first four trading days resulted in significant drops before a luke-warm Friday halted the skid and prevented an all-out panic. September's multi-year highs could soon be forgotten moving into the new trading week, as investors remain unconvinced that there are enough earnings surprises in store to support a continued move higher, or even to fend off a further drop. Some companies are out there 'beating the street,' per say, and guiding higher - Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) upped its subscriber forecast for the year last week, for example - while


Complete Story »

Gold and U.S. presidential election effect: maybe down then up

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 12:42 PM PDT

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...7501&sn=Detail


old and U.S. presidential election effect: maybe down then up

With the incumbent US President likely to try to play down economic problems ahead of November's election gold prices could continue to languish - but there could be a post-election re-awakening.
Follow @mineweb





Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 23 Aug 2012
LONDON (Mineweb) -
According to Texas coin dealer Dillion Gage's President, Terry Hanlon, gold prices generally languish in the year leading up to a U.S. presidential election. For one thing, the incumbent tries to keep the public focused on any positive economic news, and that isn't good for gold, while silver prices tend to weaken as well along with gold. In a release yesterday he noted that "We saw the price of gold decline leading into the 2008 presidential election but then rise afterwards. That scenario could play out again this year."
2008 was the year when the gold price reached $1,000 for the first time, back in March, but it slipped back nearly 30% by the month of the election, although perhaps Hanlon is drawing too many conclusions re the presidential effect here. 2008 was the year the Great Financial Crisis really hit home with virtually all markets decimated with gold no exception, although the yellow metal was the first to make a significant recovery getting back to the $1,000 spot mark very briefly in early 2009, but only remaining consistently back above the $1,000 level in September that year. Thus during President Barack Obama's Administration the price of gold, in fact, doubled.
Could history repeat itself? Maybe the time scales are a little different though. Gold peaked last year at around $1900 before coming back around 20% to $1,520 a month or so ago. We are arguably in an even Greater Financial Crisis with the next presidential election coming up in November. The basic parallels are somewhat similar, although it could equally be argued that the two GFCs are perhaps more relevant to gold's performance than the presidential election itself and the coincidence of the two events is just that - a coincidence.

But Hanlon does have a point as far as the U.S. population and markets are concerned which do have a significant say in where the gold price is headed. "Not only do incumbent presidents try to keep the public focused on good economic news before the election, but the White House also typically tries to jawbone the price of gasoline down to keep inflation in check." Say Hanlon. "That's because Americans vote with their wallets -- how much more they're spending on food and gasoline now versus earlier years. Gasoline prices, though rising in August, are well below their levels of last spring. Gold prices, sensitive to inflation, tend to move in the same direction as crude oil and gasoline."

Once the November election is over, and no matter whether Obama or Romney wins, the spotlight can be expected to shift back to the underlying bad news in the U.S. economy. "As a nation, we're spending way beyond our means, are saddled with debt and can't stay within our debt ceiling," Hanlon states. European nations are in a similar boat. These factors, along with Middle East tensions, are supportive for precious metals longer term, he adds. Bad economic news and geopolitical concerns spur investors to buy gold and silver.
As we have often stated here before, perception is the principal driver of any market, and in this respect a new, or returning, President of the USA will be trying to take any measures to rein in spending (Romney), or perhaps raise taxes and/or implement more QE (Obama) as early in the new Administration's term as possible in the hope that things may start to get better before the next presidential elections are due a further four years hence. Thus, a focus on the economic difficulties that lie ahead could well start generating renewed interest in gold as a mainstream wealth protector. But, increasing awareness of the global economic crisis could come to the fore sooner rather than later and bring this whole scenario forward regardless of the presidential vote timing and the new Administration taking office.

How To Play a Comex Default

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 12:11 PM PDT

This week's interview with gold dealer Tom Cloud of National Numismatic Associates comes as precious metals are correcting and rumors are swirling around Comex silver.

Dollar Collapse: Hi Tom. It's been an interesting couple of days for silver, with a big Comex draw-down being followed by a sizable price drop. If the silver market wasn't so obviously free and honest, it might be tempting to suspect some kind of manipulation…

Tom Cloud: Late Friday afternoon a big client of JP Morgan requested delivery of 3.6 million ounces, which is 17% of all the registered inventory of silver (assuming it's all really there). But only 1.6 million ounces were reported moved. A lot of people are asking where the rest of it is. If it wasn't immediately available and the client allowed JP Morgan to move it in pieces, that's another sign of very tight supply.

Ordinarily seeing that much silver inventory move would make the price go up, but at the same time they – probably the same people — were buying shorts to drive the market down late in the day when trading was slow.

DC: The size of the silver draw-down raises the question of what happens if a few more big players want to turn their futures contracts into physical metal. Would this cause a delivery disruption or outright default on the Comex?

TC: Somebody stepped up and said 'no more paper for me; it's time to get the real thing in my name.' They've played the [paper silver] game and benefited from it and now they want their silver. But not everyone can do that. There is 100 times as much silver paper [in the form of futures contracts] as there is physical, which means a lot more people think they own silver than there is silver in the world. At some point someone will be left out. If 17% of Comex inventory is taken out in one move, then you don't need that many more big players to take delivery to see this thing fall apart.

A lot of people were already worried about this, and what happened Friday certainly raises the odds that others with paper claims are going to ask for physical. This morning I'm seeing a lot of dealers buying a lot of silver for their own inventories. This is a very scary situation.

DC: Has an exchange ever defaulted on a commodity?

TC: I don't know of one that has completely defaulted, where they drain their warehouses of product. So it would be a huge event. And the picture for gold, though not as urgent as silver, is also pretty tight, with futures contracts far exceeding available physical.

DC: So what does the prospect of a Comex default mean for precious metals investors? How can we play it?

TC: Only gold bars from major fabricators like ScotiaMocatta and Johnson Matthey can be used to settle a Comex futures contract. That is, they're approved for future delivery. When the shortage hits, if you're holding one of these bars the premium is going to shoot straight up, so in addition to a higher spot price you'll make money on the wider premiums. Because of this, a lot of my larger investors buy Comex bars exclusively instead of coins.

There are now ten different mints producing Comex gold bars. Two years ago there were four. Comex is smart. They know it's gonna hit the fan and are now willing to approve other brands in order to increase their sources of metal. I don't think they'd be approving these other brands if they didn't expect a default. It's the same with silver. 24 months ago there were two approved fabricators, Johnson Matthey and Engelhard, making bars you could deliver on a futures contract. Today you've also got Ohio Precious Metals, Academy, and Royal Canadian mint.

But even in the absence of a Comex default, bars are cheaper than coins. They're not made by a country, but by large refineries, and because of this their premiums are lower. One exciting thing that happened this year is the introduction of one-ounce Comex silver bars from Johnson Matthey. The premium is $2 an ounce, which is about $0.75 an ounce more than for a 100-ounce bar. But it's a dollar an ounce cheaper than for a Silver Eagle coin, so they're selling very well.

DC: How do you store Comex bars once you've bought them?

TC: Several ways. You can take delivery of them and arrange your own storage. The newest state-of-the-art depository is Diamond State in New Haven, Delaware. They're tremendous. A buyer can arrange to have their bars shipped directly there, generally for free. They'll handle the paperwork and charge an annual storage fee. If you buy through us, we have a warehouse where customers can store their bullion for three years for free. It's allocated, so you own specific coins or bars, and it's all insured.

For more information or to place an order, call 800-247-2812 or email Tom Cloud at tgcloud@bellsouth.net. Mention DollarCollapse.com for free shipping and insurance.

TEPCO Admits Meltdown Of Japanese Nuclear Reactors Could Have Been Avoided

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 11:46 AM PDT

from moxnewsd0tc0m:

~TVR

Gold Drops Below $1750, Bernanke Defends Monetary Easing, Germany’s Merkel Promises “No Uncontrollable Events” in Eurozone

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 11:36 AM PDT

Gold Drops Below $1750, Bernanke Defends Monetary Easing, Germany's Merkel Promises "No Uncontrollable Events" in Eurozone

WHOLESALE MARKET gold bullion prices hovered in a narrow range below $1750 an ounce in Monday morning's London session, after recovering some ground lost during Asian trading.

"We traded through lots of stop [losses] this morning," said one trader in Singapore, after gold began the week by dropping more than ten Dollars to $1742 per ounce, its lowest level in nearly three weeks.

Like gold, silver bullion also fell during Monday's Asian session, touching a five-week low before climbing to $33.33 per ounce by lunchtime in London.

"The failure to break above the March high at $37.47 is disappointing," says Scotia Mocatta's latest technical analysis report.

"[But] the long term uptrend remains in place with support at $27.75."

Stock markets and the Euro also rallied following a speech by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke defending US quantitative easing and a promise from German leaders that nothing "uncontrollable" will happen in Europe.

In New York, the difference between the aggregate number of long (bullish) and short (bearish) contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders on the Comex – known as the speculative net long – rose for the eighth week running in the week ended last Tuesday, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published late Friday.

Spec long growth however was less than 2% on the week, the slowest rate for the entire eight-week period, which began before and continued after the Fed's announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) last month, at which it committed to open-ended mortgage-backed securities buying.

"Momentum continues to slow," says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.

"It appears as though investors continue to question the ability of QE3 to support prices and/or the longevity of Fed's open-ended commitment to easing."

Speaking at a seminar in Tokyo yesterday, Fed chairman Bernanke defended western quantitative easing policies against accusations that they impose adverse effects on emerging economies.

"I am sympathetic to the challenges faced by many economies in a world of volatile international capital flows," Bernanke said, acknowledging that accommodative policies in the US "shift interest rate differentials in favor of emerging markets" and contribute to flows of private money into their currencies.

"But by boosting US spending and growth, [monetary easing] has the effect of helping support the global economy as well."

China's exports meantime grow 9.9% year-on-year to September, almost double what many analysts forecast, official data published Saturday show.

"However, there is a sizeable seasonal effect in September, likely related to Christmas exports," points out Stephen Green, head of research, Greater China at Standard Chartered.

Chinese consumer price inflation dipped to 1.9% last month, down from 2.0% a month earlier, according to figures published Monday.

"The drop was almost entirely due to a normalization of vegetable prices," says Societe Generale economist Wei Yao.

"However, other food components continued to rise…we expect more notable rebound [in inflation] to start in November."

Here in Europe, Spain could ask for a bailout next month as part of a package that would also include assistance for Cyprus and revised conditions for Greece, according a Reuters report published Monday.

"The [reason for the combined package] is because the Germans and others do not want to go many times to national parliaments and have painful, tortuous debates there," an unnamed Eurozone official told the newswire.

German chancellor Angela Merkel said today there will be no "uncontrollable developments" in the Eurozone, echoing the words of her finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

"It will not happen that there will be a 'Staatsbankrott' in Greece," Schaeuble told a forum in Singapore Sunday, using a German phrase for state bankruptcy despite delivering the rest of his remarks in English.

Sweden's finance minister Anders Borg however predicted Friday that Greece will leave the Euro within six months. Sweden is not a member of the 17-nation single currency.

Gold bullion refiners in India have seen increased activity this year following the imposition of a higher import duty on refined bars back in January, the Economic Times of India reports.

In Africa meantime, 100 Chinese workers have been detained for suspected illegal gold mining, China Daily reports.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Argonaut Gold Announces Record Q3 Gold Production of 31,074 Oz & Increases 2012 Production Guidance

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 09:26 AM PDT

TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Oct. 15, 2012) - Argonaut Gold Inc. ("Argonaut Gold" or the "Company") (TSX:AR), announced today that the Company had record gold production of 31,074 ounces during the 3rd quarter ended September 30, 2012. This included 24,575 ounces at its 100% owned El Castillo Mine ("El Castillo") which is located 100 km north of the city of Durango, Mexico and 6,499 ounces at its 100% owned La Colorada Mine ("La Colorada") which is located 50 kilometers southeast of Hermosillo, Mexico.

THIRD QUARTER 2012 HIGHLIGHTS:

El Castillo

  • Record production of 24,575 gold ounces represents a 46% improvement over Q3 2011
  • 41,630 gold ounces loaded on the pad (+39% improvement over Q3 2011)
  • Conveying and stacking system on the East Side Pad was fully functional during the third quarter
    • In September, > 500,000 ore tonnes were crushed and placed on the East Side Pad thru the conveyor
  • West Side Pad 8 permit granted, with pad construction to be commenced in fourth quarter
  • Land agreement signed extending term for an additional 10 year period

La Colorada

  • Production of 6,499 gold ounces and 41,937 silver ounces
  • 12,276 gold ounces and 1,164,742 silver ounces loaded on the pad
  • Phase 2 pad construction is one-third complete
  • Refining facility completed; now handling all materials from El Castillo and La Colorada
  • Crushing circuit relocation and enhancements scheduled for Q4
    • Final crushing circuit expansion scheduled for early in Q2 of 2013
  • Commenced overburden removal for fresh ore mining in Q3 of 2013; 1.8M tonnes moved

Financial

  • Cash balance of $43 million as of September 30, 2012, after repayment of $6 million debt
  • Record 42,534 ounces of gold sold

Exploration

  • Signed letter of intent with Bravada Gold Corp.
    • Wind Mountain Project in Nevada with reported indicated and inferred gold resource (see Bravada NI 43-101 dated April 11, 2011)
    • Aligns with Argonaut Gold's jurisdictional focus
    • Low entry risk with $250,000 commitment
    • Reasonable acquisition cost of $30/ounce for full purchase
    • Good exploration potential on the project with a goal of increasing resources

Fourth Quarter Outlook

  • El Castillo production estimates of 22-23,000 ounces of gold
  • La Colorada production estimates of 3-4,000 ounces of gold

Full year Outlook

  • El Castillo production estimates of 84-85,000 ounces of gold
  • La Colorada production estimates of 17-18,000 ounces of gold
  • Total production guidance estimate of 101-103,000 ounces of gold

THIRD QUARTER 2012 El CASTILLO OPERATING RESULTS

Third quarter 2012 operating statistics showed improvement over third quarter 2011 results. Ore production is now at an annualized rate of approximately 12 million tonnes. Currently both sides of the operation are receiving ore to the pads and running their respective processing plants.

El Castillo Operating Statistics
3 Months Ended September 30,
2012 2011 % Change
Mining (Tonnes 000)
Total tonnes mined 6,355 4,842 +31%
Tonnes ore mined 3,083 2,908 +6%
Heap Leach Pad (Tonnes 000)
Direct ore tonnes to pad 1,811 2,283 -21%
Crushed ore tonnes to pad 1,270 613 107%
Production
Gold grade (g/t) 0.42 0.32 +30%
Gold loaded to pad (oz) 41,630 29,997 +39%
Gold loaded to carbon (oz) 24,575 16,884 +46%
Gold sold(oz) 33,839 13,260 +155%
1 "g/t" is grams per tonne
2 "oz" means troy ounce

Richard Rhoades, Chief Operating Officer of Argonaut Gold said "Capital expansion programs completed in the first half of 2012 provided the framework for production improvements that are now coming to fruition. The El Castillo team has delivered continual year over year production increases, with updated 2012 guidance providing an 18% increase in production over full year 2011 production."

Capital investments at the property included the addition of a conveying and stacking system which is now fully functional. During September, the circuit provided more than 500,000 tonnes of crushed ore delivered to the pad. The strong third quarter production was positively impacted by the rainy season which brought additional water to the pads during the quarter. Permits necessary to begin construction on West Side Pad 8 have been granted and construction will begin in Q4 of 2012, ahead of schedule."

THIRD QUARTER 2012 LA COLORADA OPERATING RESULTS

Third quarter operating statistics showed continued improvement at the mine. To date, more than 75% of the Phase I run of mine material to be reprocessed has been recrushed and stacked for leaching.

Overburden removal has begun at La Colorada in preparation for the mining of fresh ore in the first quarter of 2013. Original plans for relocating the crusher were pushed to the fourth quarter; as a result the fourth quarter production expectations are approximately 3-4,000 ounces of gold, with 2012 guidance at La Colorada revised to 17-18,000 ounces.

La Colorada Operating Statistics
Q3 2012 Q2 2012 % Change
Mining (Tonnes 000)
Total tonnes moved 2,708 840 +222%
Ore tonnes moved 924 806 +15%
Heap Leach Pad (Tonnes 000)
Crushed ore tonnes to pad 848 743 +14%
Production
Gold grade (g/t) 0.43 0.43 -
Gold loaded to pad (oz) 12,276 10,173 +21%
Gold loaded to carbon (oz) 6,499 4,590 +42%
Silver loaded to carbon (oz) 41,937 25,796 +63%
Gold sold (oz) 8,695 5,298 +64%
Silver sold (oz) 52,861 9,748 +442%
1 "g/t" is grams per tonne
2 "oz" means troy ounce

Richard Rhoades, Chief Operating Officer of Argonaut Gold said "La Colorada has seen record production at the mine during the third quarter. The Company awarded a mining contract for the property and began pre-stripping to prepare for fresh ore mining to commence in early 2013. The capital expansion program for La Colorada is now well underway and with significant accomplishments made at the mine contributing to the growing production profile."

In discussing the Company's third quarter highlights, Mr. Pete Dougherty, President and CEO said "I am extremely proud of the men and women in our organization who daily achieve exceptional results, reflected in the Company's accomplishments. In just two and a half years the El Castillo production rate has more than tripled. The team at site has delivered upon yearly production expectations along with timely completion of construction and expansion projects necessary for future growth. This coupled with a fantastic start-up of the recently commissioned La Colorada property have now pushed annual production guidance over the 100,000 ounce mark for the Company."

Record sales for the quarter reflect 8,200 ounces carried over from the Q2 and should contribute to record earnings which will be released November 14th. With a fully functioning refining circuit at La Colorada we have now been able to reduce the time and finished goods build up associated with final gold sales all of which were reflective in the quarter.

At La Colorada record production has yielded way to the preparation for mining activities to advance in 2013. The project continues in its development with construction and expansion programs laying the ground work for production growth at that property. The Company anticipates that the experiences at El Castillo will lend themselves well in the growth and development of La Colorada. Furthermore, we look to the exploration team for additional drilling on the La Colorada property, with an aim to add further value to the project."

Argonaut Gold Q3 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast:

The Q3 financial results call is set to take place on November 14, 2012 at 8:30 am ET. Details for the call in participation are included below:

Q3 Conference Call Information:
Toll Free (North America): 1-877-440-9795
International: 1-416-340-8527
Webcast: www.argonautgold.com

Q3 Conference Call Replay:
Toll Free Replay Call (North America): 1-800-408-3053
International Replay Call: 1-905-694-9451
Passcode: 7860049

The conference call replay will be available from 10:30 a.m. ET on November 14, 2012 until November 21, 2012.

Argonaut Gold Confirms Filing of Preliminary Economic Assessment for San Antonio

Argonaut Gold is pleased to confirm the filing today, pursuant to NI 43-101, the Preliminary Economic Assessment in relation to its San Antonio Property. For further information on the San Antonio Project please see the technical report entitled "NI 43-101 Technical Report on Resources San Antonio Project" dated effective as of September 1, 2012 and available on www.sedar.com and under the Company's profile as well as the Company's website, www.argonautgold.com.

The preliminary economic assessment is preliminary in nature, includes inferred mineral resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorizes as mineral reserves, and that there is no certainty that the preliminary economic assessment will be realized. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. There is no certainty that all or any part of the mineral resource will be converted into mineral reserves.

About Argonaut Gold

Argonaut Gold is a Canadian gold company engaged in exploration, mine development and production activities. Its primary assets are the production-stage El Castillo Mine in the State of Durango, Mexico, the production-stage La Colorada Mine in the State of Sonora, Mexico, the advanced exploration stage San Antonio project in the State of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and several exploration stage projects, all of which are located in Mexico.

Creating Value Beyond Gold

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements

This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" under applicable Canadian securities laws concerning the proposed transaction and the business, operations and financial performance and condition of Argonaut Gold Inc. ("Argonaut"). Forward-looking statements and forward-looking information include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimated production and mine life of the various mineral projects of Argonaut; synergies and financial impact of completed acquisitions; the benefits of the development potential of the properties of Argonaut; the future price of gold, copper, and silver; the estimation of mineral reserves and resources; the realization of mineral reserve estimates; the timing and amount of estimated future production; costs of production; success of exploration activities; and currency exchange rate fluctuations. Except for statements of historical fact relating to Argonaut, certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are frequently characterized by words such as "plan," "expect," "project," "intend," "believe," "anticipate", "estimate" and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are based on a number of assumptions and subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Many of these assumptions are based on factors and events that are not within the control of Argonaut and there is no assurance they will prove to be correct.

Factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from results anticipated by such forward-looking statements include changes in market conditions, variations in ore grade or recovery rates, risks relating to international operations, fluctuating metal prices and currency exchange rates, changes in project parameters, the possibility of project cost overruns or unanticipated costs and expenses, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry, failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated. Although Argonaut has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results not to be anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Argonaut undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Statements concerning mineral reserve and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements to the extent they involve estimates of the mineralization that will be encountered if the property is developed. Comparative market information is as of a date prior to the date of this document.

Qualified Person

Preparation of this release was supervised by Thomas Burkhart, Argonaut Gold's Vice President of Exploration, and a Qualified Person under NI 43-101. For additional information on El Castillo please refer to the "NI 43-101 Technical Report on Resources and Reserves, Argonaut Gold Inc., El Castillo Mine, Durango State, Mexico" dated Nov. 6, 2010 and further information on La Colorada please refer to the "NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment La Colorada Project, Sonora, Mexico" dated December 30, 2011, both of which and available at Argonaut Gold's website and profile on www.sedar.com.

Contact Information
Argonaut Gold Inc.
Nichole Cowles
Investor Relations Manager
(775) 284-4422 x 101
nichole.cowles@argonautgold.com
www.argonautgold.com


Argonaut Gold to buy Prodigy Gold in share, cash deal

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 09:22 AM PDT

Mr. Pete Dougherty of Argonaut reports

ARGONAUT GOLD AND PRODIGY AGREE TO FRIENDLY BUSINESS COMBINATION

Argonaut Gold Inc. and Prodigy Gold Inc. have entered into an agreement pursuant to which Argonaut Gold has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Prodigy by way of a plan of arrangement. The combined entity will benefit from the strong operating experience and cash flow of Argonaut Gold and its ability to successfully advance Prodigy's Magino gold project, which has an indicated resource of more than six million ounces (223 million tonnes at 0.87 gram per tonne gold using a cut-off grade of 0.35 gram per tonne).

Pursuant to the terms of the arrangement announced today, Prodigy shareholders will receive 0.1042 of an Argonaut Gold share and 0.001 cent in cash per Prodigy share, representing $1.08 per share based on Argonaut Gold's 20-day volume-weighted average price and a premium of 54 per cent based on both companies' 20-day VWAPs as at Oct. 12, 2012, the last trading day prior to this announcement. The transaction values Prodigy's equity at approximately $341-million on a fully diluted in-the-money basis and implies an enterprise value of approximately $277-million.

Pro forma the transaction, Argonaut Gold will be owned approximately 78 per cent by current Argonaut Gold shareholders and 22 per cent by current Prodigy shareholders (based on fully diluted in-the-money shares outstanding). The terms of the transaction have been unanimously approved by both companies' boards of directors, with the commitment of votes from all directors and officers of Prodigy, representing approximately 3.9 per cent of Prodigy's shares, having been secured.

Highlights of the combined entity:

  • Current production from two mines in Mexico and a strong pipeline of two developments projects in Canada and Mexico, representing a diversified asset portfolio in two premier jurisdictions for mine development and operation;
  • If both development projects are advanced to production, Argonaut Gold is expected to enter the ranks of the intermediate producers and fulfill its stated goal of 300,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold production per year;
  • In excess of 12 million ounces of measured and indicated gold resource, including 1.2 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserve (fully broken out by category and property as described below);
  • Strong balance sheet with no debt;
  • Current and projected future cash flow generation expected to self-finance future development, mitigating future financing risk;
  • Strong management team and experienced board of directors with proven development and operating record.

Pete Dougherty, president and chief executive officer of Argonaut Gold, said: "We are very pleased to announce this transaction with Prodigy today. Magino is a highly attractive asset which has shown continued resource growth, and which we believe will provide a longer-term production opportunity for Argonaut Gold shareholders. The Magino resource provides substantial flexibility for maximizing value creation using a higher-grade cut-off. We believe the project can be 'right-sized' for a company like Argonaut Gold to deliver the best returns to our shareholders, while providing further upside should the gold price maintain its strong performance. This transaction is both highly attractive to Prodigy shareholders as well as significantly accretive to Argonaut Gold shareholders on all key financial and operational metrics."

Brian J. Maher, president and chief executive officer of Prodigy, said: "The transaction announcement today is the culmination of the success we have had growing and advancing the Magino project. We believe the price offered by Argonaut Gold is highly attractive for our shareholders, and that in addition to the premium our shareholders receive today, our shareholders now have the opportunity to participate in a company that has current production exposure and can both finance and develop Magino."

Transaction benefits for Argonaut Gold shareholders:

  • Magino represents a significant-scale asset in the Argonaut Gold portfolio, and has the potential to allow Argonaut Gold to achieve or exceed its stated goal of 300,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold production.
  • Magino is a multi-million ounce deposit which provides tremendous grade flexibility when considering development alternatives while pursuing the highest returns for Argonaut Gold shareholders.
  • The timeline for Magino development provides for continued growth beyond Argonaut Gold's existing organic growth projects with anticipated start-up well timed after San Antonio is targeted to start production.
  • The transaction provides geopolitical and asset diversification, and entry into another of the world's most supportive mining jurisdictions.
  • A fairness opinion has been received from the financial adviser to Argonaut Gold indicating that the transaction is fair from a financial point of view to Argonaut Gold.
  • The transaction is significantly accretive to all of Argonaut Gold's per share metrics, including net asset value per share, resources per share, longer-term cash flow per share and longer-term production per share.
  • In addition to Magino, Argonaut Gold will gain exposure to Prodigy's portfolio of other exploration-stage assets

Transaction benefits for Prodigy shareholders:

  • Significant premium of 54 per cent to Prodigy shareholders based on both companies' 20-day VWAPs as at Oct. 12, 2012;
  • All-share transaction provides Prodigy shareholders with exposure to current production and cash flow in a strong gold price environment and continuing exposure to the advancement of Magino as well as Argonaut Gold's existing organic growth profile;
  • Substantially decreases the financing risk for the project;
  • Leverages Argonaut Gold's highly experienced and successful management team;
  • Argonaut Gold's shares provide improved trading liquidity for Prodigy shareholders;
  • Fairness opinion received from Prodigy's financial adviser indicating that the transaction is fair, from a financial point of view, to Prodigy shareholders.

Arrangement agreement summary

The arrangement includes, among other things, certain standard conditions including receipt of approval of the shareholders of Prodigy and Argonaut Gold by the affirmative vote of no less than 66-2/3 per cent and 50.1 per cent of the shares voted, respectively, and receipt of court and stock exchange approvals. Special shareholder meetings for each company to vote on the transaction are expected to be held in December, 2012, with closing expected shortly thereafter.

The arrangement agreement is subject to customary non-solicitation provisions, subject to Prodigy's right to consider and accept superior proposals. In the event of a superior proposal, Argonaut Gold will have a five-business-day right to match the superior proposal. If the arrangement is not completed as a result of a superior proposal or in other certain specified circumstances, a termination fee equal to $10.25-million will be paid to Argonaut Gold. The arrangement agreement also provides for reciprocal expense reimbursement under certain specific circumstances. After closing of the transaction, Prodigy will have the right to appoint one director to the Argonaut Gold board of directors.

The terms and conditions of the arrangement will be disclosed in more detail in the management information circulars which will be filed and mailed to Argonaut Gold and Prodigy shareholders in November, 2012.

Advisers and legal counsel

BMO Capital Markets is acting as financial adviser and Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP is acting as legal counsel to Argonaut Gold and its board of directors. BMO Capital Markets has provided an opinion that, based upon and subject to the assumptions, limitations, and qualifications in such opinion, the consideration to be received by Prodigy's shareholders is fair, from a financial point of view, to Argonaut Gold.

National Bank Financial Inc. is acting as financial adviser and DuMoulin Black LLP is acting as legal counsel to Prodigy. National Bank Financial Inc. has provided an opinion that, based upon and subject to the assumptions, limitations, and qualifications in such opinion, the consideration to be received by Prodigy's shareholders is fair, from a financial point of view, to Prodigy shareholders.

Conference call details

Argonaut Gold and Prodigy will host a conference call to investors and analysts to discuss the transaction on Oct. 15, 2012, at 9 a.m. ET (6 a.m. PT).

You will be able to participate in this call using the following details:

  • Conference call information: toll-free (North America) — 1-877-440-9795; Toronto local and international — 1-416-340-8527;
  • Conference call replay: toll-free replay call (North America) — 1-800-408-3053; replay call — 1-905-694-9451 (passcode 3150074).

The conference call replay will be available from 12 p.m. ET on Oct. 15, 2012, until Oct. 29, 2012. The webcast archive will be available from 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 15, 2012, for one year.

The technical information contained in this document regarding Argonaut Gold has been prepared under supervision of, and reviewed and approved by, Thomas H. Burkhart, Argonaut Gold's vice-president of exploration, and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101.

The technical information contained in this document regarding Prodigy has been prepared under supervision of, and reviewed and approved by, Tom Pollock, PGeo, Prodigy Gold's vice-president — exploration, who is a qualified person under the definitions established by National Instrument 43-101.


Gold and the Disappearing Yield

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 09:13 AM PDT

More Stunning Developments In The Gold & Silver Markets

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 09:08 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

Today King World News is reporting on incredibly important developments taking place in the gold and silver markets. Acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN, "… those big swap dealers we were talking about last week, which made the very rapid transition from being net long, to very large net shorts (in silver), they now have the largest net short position they have had since January 2008, Eric."

Norcini also warned, "This is a very big build by the swap dealers on the short side of silver, against a very big build on the long side by the hedge funds." Norcini has been stunningly accurate in his predictions of the movement of the gold and silver markets. Now the acclaimed trader discusses incredibly important developments in both gold and silver: "If you start with the gold Commitment of Traders Report, Eric, one thing we talked about last week was the overextended position of the speculative longs in this market. They are building a very sizable net long position."

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

Exclusive – Riots & Money Fleeing The Euro Into Gold & Silver

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 09:06 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

King World News received the following communication from the largest bullion dealer in Norway. The source wrote to KWN, "Today was not a good day being a Norwegian and believer in personal freedom. Attached are some thoughts from Norway." This King World News exclusive piece was written by Martin Mesicek of Gold Source, and he concludes the report by discussing what citizens of the EU are doing right now in the gold and silver markets.

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

James Turk’s New Estimate of World Gold Stocks

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 08:34 AM PDT

An exhaustive study of global physical gold stocks, authored by James Turk with the assistance of Juan Casteñeda is published, and concludes that the commonly accepted figure of 171,300 tonnes overstates gold stocks by 16,056 tonnes.

Gold And Silver Fall On Open In Asia As October Correction Continues

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 07:46 AM PDT

gold.ie

Gold and Silver Gap Lower

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 06:57 AM PDT

Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please log in to the Welcome page of the Subscriber site for our pre-market comments this Monday morning. 

20121015-GDXJwIAU

As gold and silver correct we will be particularly interested in the relative performance of the mining share indexes to gold metal.  In the chart above, for example, IAU stands in as a proxy for gold with the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index ETF or GDXJ.

In the chart below the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is compared to the EOD price of gold as another example. 

20121015-HUI-gold

Please note carefully our pre-market comments in the GGR charts, especially for gold and silver.   

That is all.  Carry on. 

Links 10/15/12

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 06:49 AM PDT

Clever dolphins using sea sponges to catch fish ABC (Australia). Headline hides the real point: Dolphins understand intellectual property! They are treating their sponge technology as a trade secret (other stories have discussed how the sponge using dolphins are keeping their little trick to themselves).

Picking an ancient brain Nature

The child's skull that reveals man was a meat eater far earlier than we thought Daily Mail (furzy mouse)

Cannabis 'no worse than junk food', says report Independent (Lambert)

Felix Baumgartner Successfully Lands After Highest Freefall from Edge of Space Science Daily (Lambert)

China's September electricity production weak MacroBusiness

Secessionist wave sweeps Belgium Financial Times. As Richard Smith points out, don't get too excited. This merely changes its degree of unlikeliness a tad. More detail: Belgique : après leur percée, les séparatistes flamands pensent déjà aux législatives Le Monde

Lithuanians vote out austerity government Aljazeera

IMF jumps ship on Europe MacroBusiness

Sweden: The new model Economist (Swedish Lex)

US Woman Takes on Banks Over Libor Financial Times (via CNBC, thanks to Richard Smith)

Will central banks cancel government debt? Gavyn Davies, Financial Times (Scott)

'Crowding Out' is Coming to Get You Global Economic Intersection

The Man Who Would Be Ex-President Kevin Baker, Harpers (Carol B)

Texas schools punish students who refuse to be tracked with microchips RT (furzy mouse)

Elections Without Consequences masaccio, Firedoglake (Carol B)

Cheri Honkala: My response to the VP debate USA Today (Lambert)

Bigoted Christian Group Opposes Anti-Bullying Day, Says It Promotes 'Homosexual Lifestyle' Gawker. You cannot make this stuff up.

$950,000 Win for NYC Workers Invigorates Supply-Chain-Justice Movement Michelle Chen, Firedoglake

Koch Employee Says Billionaire Kidnapped & Interrogated Him Courthouse News

Yield hunters look to tier two debt Financial Times (Joe Costello)

U.S. Oil Boom Falls Short of Pump Wall Street Journal (Joe Costello)

A.C.L.U. to Sue Morgan Stanley Over Mortgage Loans New York Times (Mark Ames). And where is Schneiderman?

Neoclassical economists are fuelling neo-Nazism Steve Keen, Business Spectator (Chuck L, nathan)

Are Businesses Quietly Preparing for a Financial Apocalypse? Wolf Richter. Not sure this tells the whole story. Even before the crisis, companies were net saving, which had been heretofore unheard-of in an expansion. Even if businesses wanted to wind down their cash hoards, they could buy back stock rather than invest, or buy existing companies.

Study links eating chocolate to winning Nobels USA Today (furzy mouse)

* * *

Lambert here:

Mission elapsed time: T + 37 and counting*

"ESTRAGON: I can't go on like this. VLADIMIR: That's what you think." — Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

This Week with George Stephanopolous as told to The Bobblespeak Translations: "TAPPER: also audience please clap for badass moderator Martha Raddatz Audience: yaaaay"

Walmart. Management memos: "Legal experts said the confidential memo shows an unprecedented level of caution from a company that has taken harsh stances towards employee attempts to organize in the past. According to [Cornel's Lance] Compa, the memo reflects Walmart's concern over the 20-some charges of unfair labor practices that Walmart workers filed with the NLRB over the past 8 weeks in concurrence with the strikes. The charges include dozens of allegations from employees who claim they were subjected to harassment, cut hours and other disciplinary actions when Walmart higher-ups learned that they supported OUR Walmart." … Solidarity: "'A lot of associates, we have to use somewhat of a buddy system,' Dallas worker Colby Harris said last night. 'We loan each other money during non-paycheck weeks just to make it through to the next week when we get paid. Because we don't have enough money after paying bills to even eat lunch.' Harris, who's now on strike, said that after three years at Walmart, he makes $8.90 an hour in the produce department, and workers at his store have faced 'constant retaliation' for speaking up." … Class warfare: "The forces these workers are pushing against are daunting. The six top heirs to the fortune of Walmart founder Sam Walton alone have a combined fortune that's greater than the total worth of the entire bottom 30% of all Americans, and after the US and Chinese militaries it's the biggest employer on earth." … Wage theft: "On the list of complaints, asking workers at a lower pay grade to fill in, in a department with a higher pay grade, without paying them the difference. 'We're not sure what's going to happen when we go back, but you know, we're tired, and we want to have our voices heard out here,' said [Jeff Landry]." That "we're tired" keeps cropping up. Walmart's corporate motto seems to be: "Tighten until it cracks, back off 1/2 turn."

AK. Corruption: "[Daily News reporter Rich Mauer] wrote that Bell did not report the offer of a bribe to law enforcement authorities. Told that the offer of an engineering contract in return for his support of the prison as an assemblyman could be a crime, [aspiring state senator Bob Bell] replied: 'It is?'"

CA. Legalization: "Battered by competition from indoor cultivators around the state and industrial-size operations that have invaded the North Coast counties, many of the small-time pot farmers who created the Emerald Triangle fear that their way of life of the last 40 years is coming to an end." Legalization may, alas, mean corporatization.

FL. Privatization: "More than 4,000 emails among staff at the Florida Department of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obtained by The Palm Beach Post, show how a disease outbreak became secondary as Florida Gov. Rick Scott's staff advanced his political priorities to downsize and privatize much of the department." An important story, and not for partisan reasons. …. Voting: "Palm Beach Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher told WLRN's Rick Stone that each of those [misprinted absentee] 60,000 ballots 'will have to be examined, the intent of each voter discerned, and the vote transferred to a properly printed ballot so it can be read by a tabulation scanner.'" So the value by introducing two new sources of error is what? … Water: "The spring-fed [Wekiva River] is tainted with pollution from fertilizer and sewage that has caused a smothering growth of harmful algae. At the same time, utilities are pumping significant amounts of Floridan Aquifer water that would otherwise flow from springs into the Wekiva, leaving what many fear is a river too shriveled for wildlife and plants."

LA. Fracking: "The [Assumption Parish] sinkhole has grown about four acres since it started at the beginning of August. Jeff Dubinsky flew over the sinkhole yesterday and noted the intense petroleum fumes and odors: [T]he heaviest and strongest I have ever experienced in all my time in LA. Perhaps even worse still was that the odor was hovering directly over the community" (photos).

MD. Walmart: "Walmart will not enter into written agreements pledging to address specific concerns raised in the community where a new store is planned south of Bel Air."

MT. Police state: "A 12-year-old girl suffered burns to one side of her body when a flash grenade went off next to her as a police SWAT team raided a West End home Tuesday morning."

NC. Charters: "The voucher plan proposed would have allowed corporations to donate their tax share to a scholarship granting organization, which would then provide a scholarship for a low-income child to go to a private school, even a private religious institution. This would not have been a tax credit or a write-off, it would have been a dollar-for-dollar tax break; the corporations would have completed their tax responsibility to the state. This means money that could go to essential government functions, including schools, would be used instead to send students to a private institution." Wow.

NY. Charters: "Parent groups in New York are trying to block the release of [confidential] student data to an entity that includes Wireless Generation, a technology company owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, in collaboration with the Gates Foundation." What could go wrong? … Corruption: "'Frackademia:' [O]ne of the lesser-known offshoots of the Scaife family foundations, key bankrollers of the climate change denial machine, may potentially soothe SUNY Buffalo's budget woes with funding for the university-connected Shale Resources and Society Institute." It's a win-win!

OH. Voting: "Clearing the way for the Supreme Court to act swiftly, state officials in OH on Saturday night filed their reply brief, completing briefing on whether the Court will allow the state to restrict early voting in advance of election day, November 6. The state renewed its plea to block lower court orders that required that all voters be allowed to cast votes on the final weekend before November 6."' … Voting: "Since the Supreme Court reasonably could rule either way on the stay application, one might think it naïve to expect all nine Justices–from Ginsburg to Scalia, who disagree about so much else–to end up taking the same position in this case. Nonetheless, I think it important that they do so." 5-4, here we come… Fracking: "The ODNR has permitted a horizontal fracking well inside the Meander Reservoir in H's Mahoning Valley without consulting the Ohio EPA or the Mahoning Valley Sanitary District. Today, activists with Frackfree Mahoning Valley formed a blockade at the entrance of the site. When asked what elected officials are doing, Allison Monroe from Ohio, replied, 'State and federal government isn't protecting us, so we have to protect ourselves.'" … Voting: "In a super-close Ohio race like Carter's in 1976, southeast Ohio coal counties can help nudge someone across the finish line. In southeast Ohio, a few votes here, a few votes there, and a Democrat could lose a tight statewide race. So, when the polls close and attention turns to election central in Columbus (the SoS's office), Obama and Romney aides surely will keep one eye on Ohio's coal-county election boards." You have been warned.

PA. Fracking: "A new analysis from the USGS of two counties in PA found that natural gas extraction creates 'potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape.' Wellpads, roads, pipelines and waste pits are clearcuts in forests. Cumulatively they are very destructive to the natural ecosystem. [USGS:] 'Agricultural and forested areas are being converted to natural gas extraction disturbance' and the effect is 'substantial.'"

VT. Legalization: "The magazine has identified Shumlin as one of the top 10 'Best Politicians on Pot Reform.' It cites Shumlin's participation in a petition asking the DEA to classify marijuana as a 'Schedule 2′ drug rather than a 'Schedule 1′ one. ('Schedule 1′ drugs are illegal; 'Schedule 2′ refers to prescription drugs.)"

WA. Legalization: "A 22-year-old man with severe food allergies died in the Snohomish County jail after a pot bust, and now his mother says she wants to know why he died."

WI. Corruption: "Kevin Kavanaugh's felony [theft] conviction brings the total number of Walker associates and aides who've been convicted of felonies to three, with former Walker deputy chief of staff Tim Russell still to stand trial on his felony theft charges." That does seem like rather a lot. … Food: "[F]or 41 percent of the households that rely on the Feeding America Eastern Wisconsin food bank, the coming cold can mean a difficult a choice between putting food on the table or heating the house." … Unions: "Act 10 functionally ended collective bargaining for public employees, including about UW-Madison staff members, academic staff, teaching and research assistants and faculty. Act 32 ended civil service protections for UW employees and required the Madison campus to create a personnel system separate from the UW System. The personnel plan released last month abolishes job security by seniority in the event of a layoff, preference in hiring for new jobs or transfers to a new shift, and the right to a hearing before an impartial arbitrator in the event of a dispute. Rather than discussing pay and insurance benefits before a decision is made, the plan says that it will ask for the staff's opinion after the plan has been developed by management." When it's the sucking leeches in the administrations who should be fired, en masse, so universities can return to their missions of teaching and scholarship.

Outside baseball. Walmart: "The Bluebird card [Wal-Mart and American Express] unveiled on Monday targets Americans lacking access to many banking services. It may also tempt other customers with a model that's neither credit nor typical debit. But with deposits uninsured [!!], regulators will have to watch closely." Which I'm sure they will. Not.

The trail. Political science: "[Drake political scientist Dennis Goldford: [T]he 2016 caucuses start Nov. 7, so [Obama's] basically a lame duck. We're really in for a rotten time. We really are on pretty much any issues you want to talk about." … Redistricting: "[T]he best approach incorporates both district partisanship and incumbency, and uses past election results as a guide for how important each is likely to be. When we ran those numbers, we found redistricting was a wash. The structural advantage for Republicans this year stems from incumbency, not redistricting." … Cell phones: "Pew Research notes that approximately 10 percent of cellphone respondents live in a different state than their area code implies. Even a pollster willing to pay a premium to call cellphones would miss these people in a geographically targeted survey. The 2011 data indicate that 5.2% of all 18 to 24 year-olds and 4.0% of all 25 to 34 year-olds moved across state lines in the prior year. [S]tates like CO, NV, NH, and VA have seen above-average levels of domestic migration in recent years." …. Swing states: "Two-thirds of battleground state maps have changed over the past month, yielding 10 different maps across 12 different media outlets. Overall, an average of nine states and 116.5 Electoral College votes populate the dozen battleground state maps – down slightly from an average of 119.6 votes one month ago. Three states currently appear as toss-ups on the maps of all 12 news outlets under analysis: CO, FL, and VA. A month ago five states were universally considered battlegrounds: CO, FL, IA, OH, and VA." … Sheeple: "Strategists affiliated with the Obama and Romney campaigns say they have access to information about the personal lives of voters at a scale never before imagined. And they are using that data to try to influence voting habits — in effect, to train voters to go to the polls through subtle cues, rewards and threats in a manner akin to the marketing efforts of credit card companies and big-box retailers." Uber-creepy. And bipartisan!

The Obama. Early voting: "Obama leads Romney by 59% to 31% among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks." … The Boss and The Big Dog: "But Springsteen will not be alone [campaigning for Obama] in OH. He will be appearing alongside former president Bill Clinton, who has been hitting the campaign trail for Obama with increasingly frequent speeches and rallies."

* Slogan of the day: Completely Smash The Romney Counter-Revolutionary Line!

* * *

Antidote du jour:


Gold & Silver Lower in Asia as Correction Continues

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 05:57 AM PDT

Gold saw quick price falls at the open in Asia overnight and hit a two and a half week low, continuing the drop from the prior trading session. Stop loss selling was triggered that counteracted the news of China's inflation data which hinted at a need for further QE.

Gold Drops Below $1,750 & Bernanke Defends Easing

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 05:22 AM PDT

Wholesale market gold bullion prices hovered in a narrow range below $1,750 an ounce in Monday morning's London session, after recovering some ground lost during Asian trading.

Santilli: Carcinogens Are Carcinogens

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 04:53 AM PDT

This episode is dedicated to the minions fighting on behalf of the multi-billion dollar dietary supplements industry, particularly the ones who insist on justifying ingestion of carcinogenic product ingredients. Pete also contacts CNN and asks the to investigate the Mark Taylor story.

from petersantillitv:

~TVR

Commodities under Pressure as Dollar Pushes Higher

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 04:43 AM PDT

Commodity prices are moving lower overnight as the US dollar pushes broadly higher, applying de-facto downward pressure to assets denominated in terms of the benchmark currency.

Lagarde and IMF shifting to more dovish stance

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 03:45 AM PDT

Last week marked a very definite pause in the rally in the euro, stocks, commodities and gold that we've seen since the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's new stimulus measures ...

Gold and Silver Market morning, October 15, 2012

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 03:00 AM PDT

James Wesley Rawles talks with SGT

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 02:57 AM PDT

Author and founder of the SurvivalBlog.com James Wesley Rawles talks with SGT about the financial issues we face, and the inevitable inflation which James says will be "Weimar-style", which means HYPERINFLATION. Where it gets really scary is that precious few people are prepared and in James own words, "People have no idea what the collapse of Western civilization might look like."

from sgtbull07:
Part One

Part Two

~TVR

Tom Cloud: Preparing with Gold & Silver

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 02:54 AM PDT

Tom Cloud of Cloudhardassets.com says the rich are putting "45% of their wealth into hard assets" like gold and silver. Cloud says his clients ". . . fear there's going to be a new currency . . . they know gold will win no matter what." Cloud says, "The dollar is going to fall off the table, everybody agrees on that." Cloud thinks that could happen in less than "18 months." Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard asset expert Tom Cloud.

from usawatchdog:

~TVR

Gold Linked Wages

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 02:50 AM PDT

Why is a Price-Fixing/Collusion Lawsuit Against the Biggest Names in Private Equity Getting Only Cursory Notice?

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 01:05 AM PDT

It's troubling that some stinging charges against the very biggest names in private equity are getting only passing attention in the financial media.

The New York Times last week managed to get some court filings unsealed last week in a class action lawsuit, Dahl v. Bain Capital Partners. This revelation came after the parties tried to satisfy the NY's motion with a heavily redacted filing, which the judge nixed. This short post by yours truly in the New Republic gives an overview; due to space constraints, I had to stay pretty high level:

One of the salutary side effects of the Mitt Romney presidential bid is that it has shed light on one of the most secretive yet influential parts of the financial services industry: the major buyout firms. Thanks to motions filed by the New York Times, a federal judge in Boston released court filings this week that had previously been under seal in a class action, anti-trust lawsuit — Dahl v. Bain Capital Partners — against the eleven biggest and most blue-chip names in the private-equity industry, including Blackstone, Carlyle, Goldman, and TPG. The plaintiffs contend that they lost billions as shareholders in companies that were sold at lower prices than they would have otherwise fetched in the 2003 to 2007 period due to buyer collusion through a system they called "club deals."

No wonder the defendants had been keen to keep the case under wraps. The 221-page complaint goes through 27 transactions, and with each, presents not only persuasive economic analysis, but more important, damning e-mails showing how the heads of each of the firms were involved in submitting sham bids, sharing information about their offers, working with management of the target companies to restrict the sales process, enforcing elaborate systems of quid pro quos (for instance, not submitting a bid with the expectation of being cut in on that deal or future deals), and other forms of market manipulation. The messages make clear that the intent was to reduce competition and buy the companies on the cheap. For instance, on the sale of Toys R' Us,

KKR representatives admitted that KKR decided to partner with Bain and Vornado due in part to its "desire to effectively eliminate a competitor from the auction process."…. Richard Friedman, head of merchant banking and PIA at Goldman Sachs, acknowledged in an email the belief that "the competing bidders ha[d] colluded and ganged up."

It's obvious that reducing the number of bidders and containing the competition among them would lower prices. I ran a mergers and acquisitions department in the 1980s, shortly after auctions became the preferred way for selling companies. The rule of thumb was that getting an additional bidder increased the sales price by 10 percent. The complaint includes economic analyses that show that these mega funds got better prices on average on these deals than on the ones where they duked it out.

Now after ordinary consumers have been on the wrong end of bank bailouts, foreclosure fraud, credit card tricks and traps, and debt collectors from hell, this scheme might seem like a fight between different types of investors and hence of limited real world import. That view could not be more wrong. Private equity firms concentrate enormous financial power in comparatively few hands. Their $2 trillion of assets under management, which they augment with a typical $3 of borrowed money for every $1 of their investors' money that they put down, translates into $8 trillion of buying power. Compare that to the roughly $16 trillion value of the U.S. stock markets at year end 2011. More people in the U.S. work for companies owned by PE funds than belong to unions. More than half the corporate debt in the U.S. is rated junk, and the high leverage used by PE firms in their deals is far and away the biggest culprit. It's a virtual certainty you are supporting the private equity industry. Public pension funds, whose monies come from state and local tax dollars, are one of the biggest investors in LBO funds, particularly the mega funds like KKR and Blackstone.

LBO firms fetishize secrecy and use their power to maintain it. Given that governments, both public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are important investors in these vehicles, their contracts with these firms are of public interest. Yet PE firm threats to turn away government investors in states where their agreements might be exposed through state Freedom of Information Act requests have led to extreme measures such as the passage of state laws to keep executed private equity from being classified as public records, unlike every other contract for goods and services. This double standard pervades the funds' dealings with their investors. For instance, the extensive communications among private equity firms presented in Dahl v. Bain look to a layperson like clear-cut anti-trust violations. Yet the PE firms try to cow their investors by claiming that communicating with each other could violate anti-trust laws!

It's time to pull the veil off this industry. Public interest requires much greater transparency. Congress should call hearings and require that the heads of these private equity firms testify under oath. And any settlement in this case should be a matter of public record.

I wish there had been more space in the TNR post to provide extracts from e-mails, which are typically among either the heads of the mega buyout firms, or other managing directors. They show a clear understanding of what they were up to. These players were engaged in an effort to collude, by submitting sham bids, not bidding in the auction but being invited in as a co-investor on that deal later or getting a slice of a future deal, all clearly intended to buy the target companies at more favorable prices. You really need to skim the filing. If you thought the quotes from the Libor traders in the FSA's letter to Barclays were damning, they pale in comparison to this (the juicy stuff starts on page 26 of the pdf, which is numbered page 22):

A Lawsuit Against Private Equity

And the riveting quotes are only half of it. The filing also discusses, as asides, how investemnt banks would steer deals to private equity buyers ("financial buyers" in the parlance) rather than corporations ("strategic buyers") because they'd rack up far more fees. And in case the pleased quotes from the PE overlords about the success of their efforts aren't enough to persuade you, the filing also includes extensive deal by deal analysis.

Now admittedly, one reason for the understated media response is this is a private suit, not one by a regulator. But flip this around: where is the Department of Justice? It issued civil investigative demands to some of the firms who are defendants in this suit, including KKR, Carlyle, and Silver Lake, in October 2006. The content of these e-mails, along with the extensive and persuasive economic analysis of the transactions, raise serious question about the failure of the Department of Justice and the FTC to move forward.

This Department of Justice overview document titled "Price Fixing, Bid Rigging, and Market Allocation Schemes" is admittedly written informally, to encourage individuals to contact the Department of Justice, but it is instructive to read it against the sort of behavior presented in the Dahl v. Bain Capital Partners filing. Consider this section:

Most criminal antitrust prosecutions involve price fixing, bid rigging, or market division or allocation schemes. Each of these forms of collusion may be prosecuted criminally if they occurred, at least in part, within the past five years. Proving such a crime does not require us to show that the conspirators entered into a formal written or express agreement. Price fixing, bid rigging, and other collusive agreements can be established either by direct evidence, such as the testimony of a participant, or by circumstantial evidence, such as suspicious bid patterns, travel and expense reports, telephone records, and business diary entries.

Under the law, price-fixing and bid-rigging schemes are per se violations of the Sherman Act. This means that where such a collusive scheme has been established, it cannot be justified under the law by arguments or evidence that, for example, the agreed-upon prices were reasonable, the agreement was necessary to prevent or eliminate price cutting or ruinous competition, or the conspirators were merely trying to make sure that each got a fair share of the market.

It's hard to read the private lawsuit and not wonder why this behavior didn't lead to a criminal investigation by the DoJ. Might it have something to do with the importance of private equity in funding the Obama campaign? Rahm Emanuel raised lots of money from PE kingpins, and at least two of Obama's New York City fundraisers were hosted by LBO heavyweights.

As Matt Taibbi has pointed out, bid rigging is not like what the Mafia does, it is what the Mafia does. Yet the harm here seems too remote to ordinary people, compared to, say, overpriced garbage services or municipalities blowing up thanks to toxic swaps.

If the Dahl allegations pan out, and they certainly look convincing, it provides further confirmation of the charge that these firms don't even earn the returns they claim to (returns earned by cheating aren't legitimate). And if their raison d'etre, that they provide better ourcomes than, say, an index of industrial firms (which we plan to address independent of the price fixing issue) is bogus, that means (ex the limited number of cases where they turn around failing companies) they are really in the business of extraction, looting, and transferring income from ordinary people to the top 0.1%. Not that many people don't suspect that already, but there is a world of difference between instinct and proof. So no wonder the industry works so hard at secrecy, and must be delighted to have the lapdog Department of Justice by its inaction support that effort.


When Greg McCoach Picks Mining Stocks, It's Location, Location, Location

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 01:00 AM PDT

The looming financial meltdown will affect the global economy and the U.S. will not escape, says Greg McCoach. Whatever happens, the precious metals are bound to fly, as investors scramble for...

Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter

No comments:

Post a Comment