saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Book Review: Silver's 'The Signal And The Noise'
- Singapore repeals gold tax.
- Switzerland: The World’s Gold Hub
- Iran's sea trade buckles under Western sanctions
- Russia bridges Middle Eastern divides
- Top 5 Stocks With Insider Sells Filed On October 12 To Consider
- 5 Stocks With Insider Buys Filed On October 12 To Consider
- Links 10/13/12
- Gold And Gold Stocks Readying For Upturn Against Equities
- The Worst Case Scenario
- Comex data/massive silver movements into and out of comex vaults/
- Global Gold Production History
- Unthinkable Iceberg for Europes Unsinkable Ship
- Turk sees paper gold sellers losing in short squeeze soon
- Silver Waging A Fierce Battle
- Bill Gross Says Gold Will Thrive in ‘Ring of Fire’
- Silver vs. Dow Jones: 5 Year Charts
- Gold And Silver Capped Until After U.S. Election?
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending October 12
- Will the Australian Dollar Fall to the Euro?
- The Measurable Improvements of Government
- Of Poker and Balance Sheets
| Book Review: Silver's 'The Signal And The Noise' Posted: 13 Oct 2012 09:00 AM PDT By Brenda Jubin: Nate Silver, the author of the popular political forecasting blog FiveThirtyEight, now part of The New York Times stable, is out with his first book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (Penguin Press, 2012). Although Silver covers a broad spectrum of topics, from weather forecasting to sports, with a terrific chapter on poker from the vantage point of a Bayesian, I am going to focus on a couple of general ideas that are relevant for investors and traders and then turn to his discussion of the financial markets. We live in an age of information glut. A few years back retail investors opened up their daily newspapers to see how their investments were doing; now they can follow their holdings in real time, tick by tick. In the past they got stock recommendations from their broker, read (or didn't read) annual reports, and perhaps Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2012 07:49 AM PDT Singapore hopes gold tax repeal will lure bullion refiners Singapore hopes the repeal of a 7% tax on investment-grade gold and other precious metals will help transform it into a key Asian price hub. Author: Shivom Seth Posted: Friday , 12 Oct 2012 MUMBAI (MINEWEB) - Singapore has repealed a 7% tax on investment-grade gold and other precious metals to spur the development of gold trading in the country. It is hoped the move will lift demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter and applies to gold of 99.5% purity, silver of 99.9% purity and platinum of 99% purity. While in the works for several months, the repeal came into effect on October 1. Singapore is hoping the scrapping of the tax will lure bullion refiners to the country and convince trading houses to open storage facilities, transforming it into a key Asian pricing hub. along the lines of London and Zurich. Currently holding 2% of global gold demand, the Southeast Asian city-state aims to hike that to 10% to 15% over the next five to 10 years. Currently, Singapore imports gold bars from Australia, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Japan, which are then sold to buyers in Southeast Asia and neighbouring India. Singapore's investment gold demand nearly tripled to 3.5 tonnes in 2011, according to consultancy firm GFMS. Singapore has already tripled gold imports year over year, ending December. At least one major refiner has already shown interest in opening a factory in Singapore. More gold traders are expected to set up offices and store more bullion, post the move. Gold scraps from the across the region are also traded in Singapore, which helps determine the premiums for gold bars against prices in London. Earlier, refiners were put off by Singapore's taxes, opting instead to mould and sell gold bars in Hong Kong, which does not impose duties on bullion, and Japan, where the consumption tax on gold was very low. While gold trading in the region is expected to boost competitiveness, for local investors, the repeal of the tax is set to level the playing field for the precious metal. Gold will now stand at par with other financial instruments like stocks and bonds. Gold is also being held as an alternative to cash, with experts stating that the move is set to boost gold trading among retail investors. Analysts have estimated the value of gold traded in Singapore at around $282 billion over the last year. The move is set to lower the barriers to entry for investors and to further boost interest in the precious metal. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...=Detail&id=31 |
| Switzerland: The World’s Gold Hub Posted: 13 Oct 2012 06:32 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price was well behaved right up until 8:30 a.m. in New York. The rally that began at that point got stepped on immediately by one of the not-for-profit sellers...and thirty-five minutes after that, the engineered price decline began...and kept up for the rest of the Comex trading session. Ten minutes after the close of Comex trading, the gold price got kicked down the stairs one last time in the thinly-traded electronic market. The high tick of the day [$1,774.50] came at 8:45 a.m...and the low tick [$1,751.20 spot] came at 1:50 p.m. Eastern. Gold closed at $1,754.30 spot...down $12.90 on the day. Volume was around 136,000 contracts.
The silver price came under selling pressure almost right from the London open...and the rally at the Comex open met the same fate as the rally in gold. And, like gold, it was all down hill from there, as even the tiniest rally got sold. And, as is always the case, silver got hit far harder price wise than gold. Silver's high tick was around $34.10 in early morning trading in the Far East...and the low of the day [33.33 spot] came shortly before the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading in New York. Silver closed the Friday trading session at $33.48 spot...down 52 cents of the day. Volume was in the area of 40,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened around 79.80...and traded flat until the London open. The it dropped 25 basis points in less than an hour...and crept slowly lower from there. It's nadir [79.52] came at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time...and from there it rallied until 11:40 a.m. before trading sideways into the 5:30 p.m. Eastern time close. The index finished the day at 79.69...down 11 basis points from its Thursday close...and you pretty much have to be dreaming in Technicolor to make the gold and silver price chart fit what happened in the currencies yesterday. The declines in gold and silver had zero to do with moves in the dollar index...especially that big drop at the London open...and the decline from there.
The gold stocks hit their high just minutes after 10:00 a.m. in New York...and then followed the gold price around like a shadow after that...with the low tick coming about 1:55 p.m...gold's low of the day. The HUI recovered a bit from there, almost making it back to the 500 mark, but then got sold off going into the close...and finished down 1.67%.
The silver stocks got sold off as well, but considering the thrashing that the silver price got, it could have been worse. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.15%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report was pretty sparse, as only 23 gold and 1 lonely silver contract were posted for delivery on Tuesday. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday. The U.S. Mint had obviously been saving up its sales reports for the week...and posted them all yesterday. They sold 10,000 ounces of gold eagles...3,000 one ounce 24K gold buffaloes...but only 175,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 17,000 ounces of gold eagles...5,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,408,000 silver eagles. The sales ratio of silver to gold based on these sales figures is a bit over 62 to 1. It was a monster day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 1,632,994 troy ounces of silver, but shipped a staggering 4,159,936 troy ounces out the door. Of the amount received...456,057 troy ounces disappeared into JPMorgan's depository, which now hold 23.81 million ounces of silver. The big withdrawal...3,600,546 troy ounces...was from Brink's, Inc. The activity is definitely worth checking out...and the link is here. As expected, there wasn't much change in yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report...as the Commercial net short position in silver only declined by 836 contracts...and gold's Commercial net short position only improved by 2,282 contracts. Ted Butler says that JPMorgan is still short about 33,000 Comex contracts, so nothing has changed there...and reader EWF, who provides me with the charts from the Disaggregated COT report, said that "The Top 4 silver traders hold their largest net short position since October 2010 when silver was $22 per ounce." To see how the long and short positions shape up in all three COT categories over time, here are a couple of links where you can see at a glance what's been going on all year long...and the weekly COT history on both gold and silver going back about seventeen years. The link to the Gold COT Report is here...and the Silver COT Report is here. These links are definitely worth checking out. I want to point out that my computer has always had problems loading the graphics from the above links...especially silver...and yours might as well, so be warned. Here's the "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart courtesy of Nick Laird...and shows the extreme short positions held by the '4 or less' and '8 or less' traders in all the physical commodities traded on the Comex. The thing that we know for sure now is that, in silver, three banks...two U.S. and one non-U.S...hold around 95% of the entire '4 largest traders' category between them...that's the red bar on this chart...and the other five 'large traders' that are left in the '8 largest traders' category, hold the tiny balance between them. That's basically the difference between the red bar and the green bar on this chart...plus 5% of the red bar. How grotesque and manipulative can you get???
(Click on image to enlarge) Reader Scott Pluschau has posted commentary at his blog that's headlined "Gold is at a crossroad: What I am looking for". The link is here. I have the usual number of stories for you today...including a few that I've been saving for today's column, so I hope you can find time to wade through the ones that interest you. Well, I wasn't happy to see the sell off in both gold and silver on Friday...especially against the backdrop of a declining dollar index. Singapore hopes gold tax repeal will lure bullion refiners. Real estate and bullion charm Indian investors. Dimitri Speck: gold market manipulation explained. Big turnover at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeU.S. Budget deficit tops $1 trillion for fourth straight yearThe United States government reported a budget surplus for the final month of the 2012 fiscal year, but the tiny bump in revenues did not prevent the country's deficit from exceeding $1 trillion for the fourth year in a row. The 2012 budget gap was $1.089 trillion, narrower than last year's deficit of $1.297 trillion because of higher corporate income tax receipts and less spending, the Treasury Department said on Friday. The deficit equaled 7.0 percent of U.S. economic output, down from 8.7 percent last year, the department said. Economists generally consider deficits exceeding 3.0 percent of gross domestic product to be unsustainable in the long term. This Reuters story was posted on their Internet site late on Friday afternoon...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for providing the first story in today's column. The link is here.  Are JPMorgan's Revenue Springs Drying Up?Bank stocks fell Friday afternoon along with the broader market as concerns over Europe's debt crisis returned. JPMorgan stock dropped 1.5% even though the country's largest bank by assets reported $5.7 billion in third quarter profits, up 34% from a year ago. Shares of Wells Fargo slipped 3.1% after it reported a 22% increase in earnings but revenues of $21.2 billion that were lower than revenues in the previous quarter. Chris Whalen, senior managing director of Tangent Capital Partners, tells The Daily Ticker that the decline in JPMorgan shares was "a sell-the-news reaction." JPMorgan did better on lending, he says, but "there's only so much of that left." Whalen says banks overall won't be able to maintain the volume of mortgages and refinancings that have been supporting earnings. He says the Federal Housing Administration has been tightening requirements for the loans it guarantees and the majority of refinancings have already been done. This CNBC story was posted on their website half an hour before the markets closed in New York yesterday...and I thank Ontario reader Richard O'Mara for being the first one through the door with this article yesterday. The 5-minute video interview with Chris Whalen that is embedded in this piece is a must watch...and you can forget about reading the story, as the video is much more interesting. The link is here.  Bill Gates, Kofi Annan Urge Leniency for Inside Trader GuptaMicrosoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates and former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked a judge to show leniency in 11 days when he sentences ex- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. director Rajat Gupta for insider trading. Gates and Annan were among more than 200 supporters seeking mercy for Gupta, citing his lifetime of good deeds. He will be sentenced on Oct. 24 for leaking stock tips to hedge-fund manager Raj Rajaratnam. The letters were made public yesterday by U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan. "I urge you to recognize Rajat for the good that he has done in this world, to give him the credit that he deserves for helping others, and to take into account his effort to improve the lives of millions of people," Annan said of Gupta's work to reform management of the UN. You can't make this stuff up! This story was posted on the Bloomberg Internet site late last night Mountain Daylight Time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  Doug Noland: The Myth of DeleveragingThe history of money is a sad state of affairs. Failing to learn from a litany of previous monetary fiascos, "money" is these days being abusively over-issued. And when the marketplace inevitably decides that over-issuance (in conjunction with only deeper structural maladjustment) has sufficiently impaired the "moneyness" of federal and related debt, there will be no one to step in to backstop Washington's creditworthiness. There will be no entity left with the wherewithal for backstopping system "moneyness," as the Treasury and Federal Reserve have done for Trillions of intermediated mortgage debt since the bursting of the previous Bubble. Moreover, in the meantime, outrageous fiscal and monetary policies will continue to foment uncertainties that will impinge the type of sound investment and wealth creation necessary to get our economy on sounder footing. Doug's weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin is always a must read for me when it's posted on the prudentbear.com Internet site most Friday evenings...and yesterday's commentary is no exception to that rule. The link is here.  EU awarded Nobel Peace PrizeThe European Union has won the Nobel Peace Prize, despite a year marked by riots on streets of many capitals and the looming prospect of an acrimonious break up amid an economic crisis caused by the euro. The EU has been nominated many times for the prize in the past but has never won it because the Union is politically controversial, not least in Norway, the home of the Nobel peace prize, a country which rejected membership twice, in two referendums. "The union and its forerunners have for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe," said the Nobel prize committee. In its citation the Nobel committee acknowledged that the EU was today facing turmoil as the economic defects of the euro have laid waste to many Southern European countries and have plunged all Europe into the worst recession for 80 years. Only the Nobel peace prize for Obama, three weeks after he was elected president, was a worse choice than this. The surprise and outrage followed immediately. This story was posted in The Telegraph early yesterday morning BST...but London, U.K. reader Iain Doherty didn't get it to me in time to make yesterday's column. The link is here.  Ignoble Prize? - Euroskeptics Call Nobel Honor an 'April Fool's Joke' [2 stories]The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to the European Union has divided the Continent. While European leaders in Brussels and national capitals are basking in the glow provided by the unexpected honor, euroskeptics in the EU have unleashed their contempt for the Norwegian Nobel Committee. In Britain, Friday's award has been the subject of particularly heated commentary. Iain Martin, a columnist with the conservative Daily Telegraph dismissed the prize as "beyond parody." He writes that the prize has been awarded prematurely because "we have no idea how the experiment to create an anti-democratic federation will end." Besides, he writes, "daftest of all is the notion that the EU itself has kept the peace." Instead, he writes, it was the Brits and the Americans who brought peace to the Continent. Members of the House of Commons with the conservative Tories described the decision as "laughable" and an "April Fool's Joke." Meanwhile, the tabloid Daily Mail runs with photos of protesters in Athens burning a flag emblazoned with a swastika during this week's visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and quotes the head of the Tory party in the European Parliament, Martin Callanan, as stating, "Presumably this prize is for the peace and harmony on the streets of Athens and Madrid." This spiegel.de story was sent to me by Roy Stephens...and the link is here. Roy also sent this blog from The Telegraph on the same issue. It was written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard...and is headlined "The wrong Europe wins the Nobel peace prize". The link to that is here...and it's a must read.  Cloistered from the Crisis: Greeks Seek Solace in Mt. Athos MonasteriesMount Athos, a self-governed peninsula in northeastern Greece, has been attracting pilgrims to its Orthodox monasteries for centuries. But the debt crisis has led to a sharp rise in the number of guests seeking calm and solace there. Women still aren't welcome, though. In a few minutes, the oil lamps will be lit in Agiou Andrea, one of 12 "sketes," or monastic communities, on Mount Athos. Agiou Andrea is not a place to expect luxury. But no one has come here for that. "I am here to wash myself cl |
| Iran's sea trade buckles under Western sanctions Posted: 13 Oct 2012 06:32 AM PDT  Iran's vital seaborne trade is buckling under the weight of Western sanctions, deepening hardship for a population deprived of basic imports and heaping intense pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Many of Iran's imports, including food and consumer goods, arrive on container, bulker and other ships, but the number of vessels calling at its ports has dived by more than half this year as the United States and European Union tighten the screws. Analysts doubt the Iranian economy is near collapse, even though its rial currency has plunged in the last few weeks, but they say some shortages and rising prices of imported goods could provoke public unrest directed at Tehran's leadership. |
| Russia bridges Middle Eastern divides Posted: 13 Oct 2012 06:32 AM PDT  A multi-billion dollar arms deal with Iraq, a summit meeting with Turkey, a fence-mending exercise with Saudi Arabia, a debut with Egypt's Sphinx-like Muslim Brothers - all this is slated to happen within the period of a turbulent month in the Middle East. And all this is to happen when the United States' "return" to the region after the hurly-burly of the November election still seems a distant dream. Simply put, Russia is suddenly all over the Middle East. |
| Top 5 Stocks With Insider Sells Filed On October 12 To Consider Posted: 13 Oct 2012 05:02 AM PDT By Markus Aarnio: I screened with Open Insider for insider sell transactions filed on October 12. From this list, I chose the top five stocks with insider selling in dollar terms. Here is a look at the top five stocks: 1. Dollar General Corporation (DG) has been delivering value to shoppers for more than 70 years. Dollar General helps shoppers Save time. Save money. Every day! by offering products that are frequently used and replenished, such as food, snacks, health and beauty aids, cleaning supplies, basic apparel, house wares and seasonal items at low everyday prices in convenient neighborhood locations. With more than 10,000 stores in 40 states, Dollar General has more retail locations than any retailer in America. In addition to high quality private brands, Dollar General sells products from America's most-trusted manufacturers such as Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, Unilever, Kellogg's, General Mills, Nabisco, Hanes, PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. (click to enlarge) Insider Complete Story » |
| 5 Stocks With Insider Buys Filed On October 12 To Consider Posted: 13 Oct 2012 04:31 AM PDT By Markus Aarnio: I screened with Open Insider for insider buy transactions filed on October 12. From this list, I chose the top 5 stocks with insider buying in dollar terms. Here is a look at these 5 stocks: 1. DaVita (DVA) is a leading provider of kidney care in the United States, delivering dialysis services to patients with chronic kidney failure and end stage renal disease. DaVita strives to improve patients' quality of life by innovating clinical care, and by offering integrated treatment plans, personalized care teams and convenient health-management services. As of June 30, 2012, DaVita operated or provided administrative services at 1,884 outpatient dialysis centers located in the United States serving approximately 149,000 patients. The company also operated 19 outpatient dialysis centers located in four countries outside the United States. DaVita supports numerous programs dedicated to creating positive, sustainable change in communities around the world. The company's leadership development initiatives Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2012 03:55 AM PDT Neiman Marcus Selling $100,000 Fantasy Hen House & Farming Lessons in New Christmas Book Inhabitat (furzy mouse). Someone at Nieman Marcus is engaged in major subversion. If you've ever been near a chicken coop, you'll know why. Nearby super-Earth likely a diamond planet EarthSky (furzy mouse) Unmasking Reddit's Violentacrez, The Biggest Troll on the Web Gawker (Lambert) Japan Utility Says Crisis Avoidable Wall Street Journal Bank of China Warns of Ponzi Schemes; China's Demographic Peak; Birth Rate Comparison China vs. US; "China Will Grow Old Before Growing Rich" Michael Shedlock Libertarian Candidate Excluded From Debate For Refusing Corporate Donations Slashdot (Chuck L) Governing without Consent of the Governed masaccio, Firedoglake (Carol B) Latinos–too lazy to vote? Greg Palast Jim Bianco Has A Surprising Theory For How Mitt Romney Is Tanking The Market Clusterstock (furzy mouse). Also, in general, the stock market does worse under Republican presidents. THE INTERGENERATIONAL BURDEN OF THE DEBT: NICK ROWE TEMPTS FATE WEBLOGGING… Brad DeLong Paul Ryan Told 24 Myths In 40 Minutes Alternet. What was Biden's score? PROGRESSIVE TURNCOATS: PRO-LABOR POLITICIAN FROM EAST LOS ANGELES FRONTING FOR KOCH BROTHERS, WALL STREET FRAUDSTERS AND WAL-MART OLIGARCHS… Matthew Fleischer, eXiled A Farewell to Arms, and the United States American Prospect Why Taxes Should Pay for Health Care James Kwak Housing Has "Turned the Corner" – For Banks Dave Dayen, Firedoglake (Carol B) Turning Point for Suits Over Chinese Drywall New York Times Ex-Morgan Stanley Executive's Stabbing Charges Dropped Bloomberg Robustness of IMF data scrutinised Financial Times. In case you missed it, the FT has been talking the neoliberal line for some time. A Vignette of the US Political Scene Jesse ROSENBERG: The New Job Opening And Labor Turnover Data Isn't Consistent With Last Week's Employment Report Clusterstock An Embarrassing Piece of Video Barry Ritholtz What's the average adult worth? FT Alphaville There Is No Nobel Prize in Economics Yasha Levine, Alternet. Some history I bet you don't know! And explains why Chicago School types are strongly preferred. * * * Lambert here: Mission elapsed time: T + 35 and counting* "My little body is weary of this great world."– Portia, The Merchant of Venice. Since it's Friday, I must soon throw myself into the glittering whirl of my social life, and so this post will be short; I'll do a zeitgeist watch from my local coffee shop. But first, what I can find on Walmart– CA. Walmart: "The UFCW is focusing on the Bay Area because that's where Walmart is just starting to open a new category of smaller stores — Walmart Neighborhood Markets — that will compete directly with unionized grocers such as Safeway and Lucky, Henneberry said." FL. Walmart: "The 75 employees marched up and down the sidewalk for about two hours on the street near the Walmart Supercenter at 2551 Hallandale Beach Blvd. Customers watched from the parking lot. Two joined the protest. Many of the Walmart employees at the protest were members of national group the Organization United for Respect at Walmart, which is associated with the UFCW. The group is called 'OUR Walmart.'" MA. Walmart: ""We'll be back. We'll be back,' chanted the eight people loosely calling themselves OUR Walmart and Warehouse Workers for Justice before walking outside, holding signs and delivering their message at the New Harbour Mall store in the South End [in Fall River]. Locally, there have been protests in Dartmouth, Raynham and Fall River the past few months over Walmart's labor practices." Note well that last sentence. Even if we don't know about those actions, you can be very sure that Walmart executives do. OK. Walmart: "The recent trend of Walmart walkouts that has captured attention of the national media will not rear its head in Chickasha according to Walmart spokesperson Dan Fogleman. Fogleman said those that showed up to protest in Bentonville are union back and funded. 'They were paid to fly down here and show their obvious agenda,' he said." That's some PR operation they've got there. … Fracking? " Developmental interests are still booming in Chickasha. Four businesses have decided to build in Chickasha including Interurban, GameStop, Boomerang and Dollar Tree. There is also a lot of interest in well services, oil and gas development, according to [Ryan Posey, president of the Chickasha Area Economic Development Council]." (Yes, fracking). Pretty funny go to looking for Walmart and find fracking. TX. Walmart: "About 90 workers walked off their jobs from 12 cities on Wednesday including Dallas, Miami, Orlando, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles. Others walked off their shifts in TN and KY." Note again that last sentence. Outside baseball. Walmart: "Striking workers and national OUR Walmart leaders said the group has committed to engaging in a wide range of nonviolent activities on Black Friday, including rallies, flash mobs, direct action, and other efforts to inform customers about what they call the illegal actions that Wal-Mart has been taking against its workers. The group also garnered support from various other organizations, including the National Organization for Women and the National Consumers League." Media critique: Each of the uprisings over the last few years has had a distinctive media flavor (which is not necessarily the dominant flavor for those on the ground, or for future historians; but as a stone media processor, that's what I notice). The events of Egypt had the Al Jazeera camera trained on the square; Occupy has streamers and twitter; the events in Thailand a year before Tahrir Square had community radio and loudspeakers. The Walmart actions — I hesitate to say strike, or union, because strikes are a subset of non-violent action, and associations are not unions — have a different feeling still. Most of the national reporting (of which there is not much) seems to have sourced a single conference call. But as we've seen in the last few days, there's a good deal of local, and factual, reporting, some of it by local TV stations, amazingly enough. And there seems to be a concerted effort on Patch, also factual. And note one interesting thing about the stories excerpted today: We keep hearing about new stores, and (as the underlined and as yet not reported actions show) nobody in the press seems to be quite sure how big this thing is. The hard numbers I believe, come from the conference call; but there are other actions also. I have the feeling — and in the words of the great Peggy Noonan, "It would be irresponsible not to speculate" — that OUR Walmart is a lot like a duck, paddling along: Lots of motion unseen under the surface. (And it sure is odd that Walmart announced that keen new program to get people with spinal trouble surgery right after these actions kicked off, isn't it? Though to be fair, it would be a heck of a lot more… Well, ethical to have working conditions that didn't wreak people's spines in the first place.) We shall see! * * * To the coffee shop: The owner, Mrs. Schadenfreude, runs the local wire service, so I stopped in there tonight to get the news. MRS. S: Another one! LAMBERT: What do you mean? MRS. S: Bob Kennedy! It turns out she was discussing this story: "Robert A. Kennedy, who resigned [as President of UConn] earlier Friday under pressure from the governor and lawmakers amid a scrap over secret pay raises for staff members totaling more than $250,000." Our local university had delivered over a grotesquely swollen sack of lucre to this sucking leech of an administrator — sorry for the redundancy — before he slithered off to even richer pickings at UConn, and during his very short tenure he managed to alienate the university's largest donor, and entered into an unseemly menage with our local landfill operator. MRS. S: That's three! LAMBERT: Three? MRS. S: Kennedy, Sandusky, and Lance Armstrong! So, you can see people connecting the dots on elite corruption. Alas, Mrs. Schadenfeude's list didn't include any banksters. I guess Obama really did stand between them and the pitchforks. Thanks, "progressives"! * Slogan of the day: To Live With One's Nose Barely Above Water Is Glorious! Forward With The Obama! * * * Antidote du jour:
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| Gold And Gold Stocks Readying For Upturn Against Equities Posted: 13 Oct 2012 03:14 AM PDT In the wake of the Fed's announcement of open-ended or as I like to call it, permanent quantitative (QE) easing, mainstream advisors and pundits have found another way to promote stocks. Recently, I heard one popular media pundit say based on QE, buy stocks but not gold stocks. Also, pundits are instructing followers to buy Apple (AAPL) based on QE. What nonsense. This stuff practically writes itself. Next, when inflation takes hold, we'll hear about how stocks are an inflation hedge. The reality is that the cyclical bull market in equities is approaching its end and will give way to the bull market in Gold and gold stocks, which is set to move into the recognition phase. A simple way to compare Gold and stocks is to use ratio charts. Below we graph Gold against various markets, which include the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and emerging markets. During the financial Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2012 12:46 AM PDT I've given some consideration to the idea of metals confiscation and for one reason or another each one seems to lack some degree of plausibility in the current financial environment. I don't see anyone willingly turning in physical metals and I can see a lot of boating accidents happening. It doesn't seem too hard to imagine that the government will quickly siphon off any ETF accounts with or without compensation. That said, I would like to see some viewpoints on a position I have not seen addressed anywhere. Say hypothetically, a few years into the future, gold has gone to the moon -- let's say $6,000 or $10,000 or $15,000. Of course, there are valuation issues as to how much $10,000 or $15,000 is worth in the dollar of that day. The presidential administration knows that a FDR approach will not work, and they realize that people who hold physical PMs are about 1% of the population. In other words, there won't be quite the same level of political blowback as when union jobs are at risk. At that point, the price of gold will be outside of the price of most people so you won't see many Joe Sixpack's investing in physical gold. Consider also that walking into a supermarket with 1 oz. of gold would be roughly equivalent to trying to buy groceries with a $5,000 bill today so it would be very difficult to make change for an ordinary transaction. One day, the president goes on television and announces the financial collapse has been caused by the speculators in precious metals, namely gold investors and announces a 90% effective tax rate on capital gains in gold. So, you have 1 oz. of gold that you bought at ~$1800 (today's price) that has a valuation of $10,000. If you go to a metals dealer, they want to fill out paperwork that goes to the IRS. You can't easily buy small items such as groceries or gas due to the complexity of the transaction and people become aware of the taxation issue. Consider also that if the currency hyperinflates or re-values or a new currency is introduced, you can't pay the tax off by selling more gold because you will have to pay taxes at 90% for the second ounce of gold sold. My question to you: - what would prevent this scenario from happening (other than dumb luck)? - what would you do if it did? The boating story doesn't seem to apply much here. You may be able to keep the gold in your possession, but you will have a hard time doing much other than admiring it. I know many people are long on metals, but are you willing to go long for a decade or more? bb |
| Comex data/massive silver movements into and out of comex vaults/ Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:42 PM PDT |
| Global Gold Production History Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:30 PM PDT Goldsheet Links |
| Unthinkable Iceberg for Europes Unsinkable Ship Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:28 PM PDT Bullion Vault |
| Turk sees paper gold sellers losing in short squeeze soon Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:19 PM PDT |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:16 PM PDT the fundamental View |
| Bill Gross Says Gold Will Thrive in ‘Ring of Fire’ Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:00 PM PDT GoldandOilGuy |
| Silver vs. Dow Jones: 5 Year Charts Posted: 12 Oct 2012 09:44 PM PDT |
| Gold And Silver Capped Until After U.S. Election? Posted: 12 Oct 2012 09:00 PM PDT gold.ie |
| By the Numbers for the Week Ending October 12 Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:58 PM PDT This week's closing table is just below. |
| Will the Australian Dollar Fall to the Euro? Posted: 12 Oct 2012 04:00 PM PDT Goldman Sachs reckons the Australian dollar is in deep trouble. 'One of the best long term trades out there at the moment is long euro versus short Aussie,' said Thomas Stolper, chief currency strategist at the investment bank. In other words, he expects the Australian dollar to fall in Euro terms. Ignore for the moment that Thomas' last name means 'stumble' in German (ours means 'bump'). What would a drop in the Australian dollar mean for Australians and our economy? To be honest, it's an invalid question from the start. It presumes the value of a currency affects the economy. It's really the other way around. The currency reacts to the economy. It tries to balance imports and exports by falling and rising when one of them gets out of hand. At least, that's what's supposed to happen. But currencies are the last bastion of central planning. Governments control how much money is in the economy, and how much it costs you to borrow it. That stops things from working the way they should. The result is instability. And because money is half of every transaction, the government's involvement causes instability right across the economy. It's ironic that governments have rolled back many of their interventions in the economy, but left the one that really matters. And then they blame free markets for anything that goes wrong. Anyway, the Europeans and the Americans are printing lots of money. The Australian central bank isn't anywhere near as much. Surely that means the Aussie dollar will rise, not fall as Goldman Sachs expects? But what if the Aussie dollar has already risen to reflect the newly printed money? As traders would say, it has 'priced it in'. If it has, where to from here? What will make our currency fall? Well, Europe and America have had their housing bubbles pop. Ours is yet to burst. And we've got a resources curse too. Our economy is dependent on exporting dirt, which can change in price and demand very quickly. Worst of all, our banks are reliant on foreign financial markets. All that bodes ill for our currency.
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| The Measurable Improvements of Government Posted: 12 Oct 2012 04:00 PM PDT
[Ed Note: To see the previous instalment of Bill's book, click here] What exactly went wrong in Germany? Thomas Jefferson had been dead for 150 years when Adolf Hitler came to power. But he would have recognized the broad outlines of the problem. Jefferson: "My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." Too much security turned out to be as deadly to the people who created it as to those who fought against it. Even after the Germans had surrendered, the dying continued. The Allies turned their heads as 13 million Germans were expelled from Prussia, Poland, Hungary, Rumania, Czechoslovakia, and other nations in Eastern Europe. It was not a pretty sight. The Germans call it "die Flucht"...the biggest 'ethnic cleansing' in all history. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions — mostly women, children and old men — died en route. That too, was part of the cost of Germany's 'too much' reliance on military power. Once the downside began...it was a long way down. But suppose the government had confined its activism to helping people rather than killing them? Suppose Heinrich Himmler put flowers in his hair and Adolf Hitler went to anger management sessions. Suppose they turned their energies from mass murder abroad to 'making a difference' at home? Is there any limit to the good works they might have realized? Could the world ever have 'too much' improvement? Where's the downside? You fill the tank of your car. Minutes go by as the big tank fills, with a deep gurgling sound coming from the mouth of the tank. It gets fuller and fuller, better and better. Then, you hear a different sound. The tone changes as the neck of the tank fills quickly. It is time to click the nozzle and stop. How much gasoline has been spilled on the ground by people who failed to stop when they should have? The problem has been greatly alleviated by the invention of the automatic nozzle, which closes when it senses a back-up. What a shame similar devices have not been developed to stop people from overdoing it in other ways! How many desserts have been consumed by people who passed the point of diminishing returns at the starter course? How much money has been wasted on investments whose rates of return sank to zero...and kept declining? How many couples should have kissed and made up at the breakfast table rather than continue their argument through dinner? And how many armies should have called a halt at their own borders? Here we examine a well-known, but little studied, phenomenon — what happens AFTER you have gone too far...and what you get after declining marginal utility has turned into negative utility. Calories that shouldn't be eaten...money that shouldn't be spent...things that shouldn't be said and wars that sensible people shouldn't fight — they are all part of The Downside, where every success is measured in red and every step forward is a march to hell. So, let us turn away from the warfare state to the welfare state. Surely, you can't over-do it when you're trying to help people, can you? Which brings us back to the world, and specifically, the United States of America, circa 2012. Never before in the history of the world have so many people devoted their lives to trying to the make the world a better place. What is government if not an organization that works to improve the lives of its citizens? Surely, every one of its employees strives to "make a difference" in a positive way. The baker may be said to improve the lives of his clients, but he does so unintentionally, almost accidentally. He is just trying to support himself. If anyone else gets a benefit out of his actions it is purely coincidental. And the auto mechanic too. And even the psychiatrist. Each looks after his own. Any improvement in the lot of mankind is offset by the money each charges. In theory, the world comes out even, exchanging one resource for another. That is how the market system works. A buyer exchanges with a seller. One gives up something; one gets an equal value in return. Even Steven. But in the year of our lord 2012, 2.65 million people work apart from the market system. They are the employees of the US government whose purpose is not to render any service nor produce any manufactured good in an even exchange for money. Instead, the GS 1's through GS 12's have a more important and more general mission. If the bakers and auto mechanics only got back from government what they actually paid for they would have no reason to go to government at all. They can get what they pay for in the private sector. They must get something more from government. Or something different. Something not available in the market. The people on the federal government payroll, if they thought about it at all, would probably think that they were hired to increase the sum of human happiness by correcting the failures, oversights and shortcomings of the market system. If they labor for the SEC, they believe they improve the way securities are bought and sold. If they draw their pay from the Department of Education or one of its many subsidiaries or any of the institutions of higher or lower learning supported in part or in whole by the feds, they believe they provide some fillip to the educational process that is beyond the reach of the free enterprise system. As for the central bankers, who knows what they really think? But to the outside world they maintain that they can do a better job of selecting the interest rates paid on short term notes than the buyers and sellers of the notes themselves. As mentioned earlier, a similar conceit has taken over almost the entire economics profession. The world created by able buyers and willing sellers isn't good enough for them. They aim for a better one. And they believe their professional training gives them the tools needed to improve it. Without coming to any conclusion about how good their training was...or how well they are able to accomplish the enormous task in front of them...let us merely look at the tools themselves. Whereas the classical economist, before Keynes and econometrics, was a patient, neutral observer, the modern, post-Keynes economist has ants in his pants and help in his heart. He cannot sit idly watching his flock, like a philosopher studying a group of sinners...or a botanist watching plants. Instead, he comes on the job, opens his tool chest, and gets to work. But what tools does he work with? Numbers. If you are going to improve something you must be able to measure it. Otherwise how do you know that you have made an improvement? How do you know there is any improvement to be made? But there is the problem right there. How do you measure economic performance? You need numbers. But when we look carefully at the basic numbers used by economists we find that they are fishy...if not outright fraudulent. These numbers claim to have meaning. They claim to be specific, scientific and precise. They are the evidence and the proof that led to thousands of Ph.D. awards, thousands of grants, scholarships and academic tenure decisions. More than a few Nobel Prize winners also trace their success to numbers. They are also the basis of weighty decisions and far-reaching policies that change the lives of millions of people. 1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9... There are only 9 cardinal numbers. The rest are derivative. These numbers are useful. In the hands of ordinary people they mean something. Three tomatoes is different from 5 tomatoes. Three buckets of 5 tomatoes each is 15 tomatoes. In the hands of scientists and engineers they are indispensable. Careful calculations allow them to send a spacecraft to Mars...and then drive around on the Red Planet. But a useful tool for one profession may be a danger in the hands of another. Put a hairdresser at the controls of a 747...or let a pilot cook your canard a l'orange... and you're asking for trouble. So too, when an economist gets fancy with numbers, the results can be catastrophic. The old, classical economists were suspicious of numbers. They were not 'bean counters' or mechanics. They were observers. By watching what people did — and how economies actually worked — they induced 'laws' or 'principles' that helped them understand what was happening and predict what would happen next. There was, for example, the 'law of supply and demand.' Or the aforementioned 'law of declining marginal utility.' Economists back then did not earn much money. So they took their recompense in other forms, often by naming one of these newly discovered 'laws' after themselves. Jean Baptiste Say discovered that "products are paid for with products" not merely with money. (He meant that you needed to produce things to buy things...you could not just produce money.) It is today called 'Say's Law.' Gresham noticed that if people had two different kinds of money available to them, they would spend the weakest of them first, and keep the good money in storage. We're not above eponymous vanity either. So we give you Bonner's Law: In the hands of economists, the more precise the number, the bigger the lie. An article appeared in the press on Oct. 4, 2012. "Health care as 'income' for the poor.' The New York Times reported that the Congressional Budget Office had decided to include government's health care spending, dollar for dollar, as income to American families. In the wink of an eye, the numbers boys at the CBO increased the household income of the bottom 5th of the population by $4,600 per household...thus lifting hundreds of thousands up above the poverty line. The government does indeed spend nearly $8,000 on the average Medicaid beneficiary per year. As for the average Medicare recipient, the total rises to $12,000. So, the quants seem to be on solid ground in adding this money to the 'income' of the people who receive it. The NYT is much too earnest a journal to mention it, but this opens up vast new possibilities for the number crunchers. Do the poor not also receive their share of other spending? Their children are educated, almost entirely at the expense of the government. Take the median number of children. Take the cost of a private school education. Add that to the typical low-income household. Presto! They're now a middle-income household. No kidding. Do the math. Or make it easier. Take educational spending, $809 billion. Add it to household income. You just increased the average household income of the lowest fifth of the population by $7,000. And what about security? Don't American households benefit from US 'security' spending? If they don't, why do we spend the money? The feds spend about $800 billion on 'security.' And if you added in all the crackpot spending justified in the name of security — such as building a US embassy in Baghdad that can withstand a nuclear attack — the total is closer to $1.2 trillion. Divide that by 114 million households. Now, you can add another $11,000. In fact, what is the entire US federal budget — not to mention state and local budgets — if not a benefit to the citizens, residents, and illegal immigrants of the United States of America? So, take the whole damned budget and divide it up. And now we have the poorest people in America with household income of about $55,000. Voila, we have won the war on poverty without firing a shot. More soon... Regards, Bill Bonner From the Archives... Derivatives as a Sponge Don't Teach Your Man to Fish Three Phone Calls You Must Make Now Beer and Tax in Retirement Hard Times for Hard Rocks
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| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 01:14 PM PDT
We have dragged pots in all the well known rooms (Venetian, Wynn, Bellagio etc) on multiple occasions. Next week, though, we will play at Aria for the first time, and stay in the Aria hotel. We will also check out the real estate values at City Center — a future Mercenary satellite headquarters? We shall see… For those of you coming to the Alternative Asset Summit, be sure to touch base. If we don't see you at Aria, maybe we'll catch up at the Wynn.
He doesn't know us very well, does he? Brad — we humbly suggest you take a better look. If the depth of one's gaze runs two inches deep, perception will always be shallow. Obviously riskless ~80R opportunities don't come along every day… but there were multiple points to the anecdote… 
In further respect to the above, the hard part is not just making the money, but keeping it. As the old saying goes, bad traders never make profits — they only take out short-term loans from the market. (So too with poker players.) What's more, in order to be physically present — and properly capitalized — for the situations that offer stellar reward-to-risk, you have to be sitting at the table in the first place. This requires consistency (in showing up day after day); creative awareness (to spot opportunity and know it when you see it); and risk management skills (to navigate a steady stream of more complex situations — some of them quite tricky — without losing your chips).
So easy! Like falling off a log. But what one does not hear about is the consistent vigilance, the relentless due diligence, and the high quality risk management application to countless unavoidable instances of less black-and-white decision making that allowed for such positioning, dry powder fully intact, in the first place… In other words: To take the great trades (or poker hands) that show up a few times per year, or even a few times per decade, one cannot simply hit the beach or call in from the ski chalet. Year-round involvement (most likely day-to-day), and survival skill plus diverse money-making ability applied across the full range of market conditions, is the hidden prerequisite. (Coincidentally, this is why we rarely if ever take vacations from the Mercenary Live Feed… and when one partner takes some once-in-a-blue-moon R&R for the sake of battery recharge, the other still watches…) The second point of the story was that, in a zero or minus sum game, risk management mistakes create opportunity… sometimes huge opportunity. It thus becomes imperative to be the skilled exploiter of such mistakes, and not the mistake-maker being exploited. We'll go into more detail in the follow-up piece…
From the movie Rounders: In Confessions of a Winning Poker Player, Jack King said, "Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career." We find this to be true, but with a caveat. For the creative thinker and dedicated analyst — the type of individual who consistently revisits a session history, looking for nuances, subtleties, alternative lines of play, and possible insights as to how play could have been improved — it is the interesting or unconventional hands that stick in the memory, regardless of whether the result was profit or loss. The primary somatic marker, at least for us, is thus the wattage of the "a-ha!" or "Hmm" light bulb clicking on, rather than the ups or downs of pots won or lost… major tourney cashes notwithstanding!
Why fear playing a large stack? In part due to the swings, but also in part due to tacitly acknowledged lack of discipline and control. Many a player at the 2-5 and even 5-10 No Limit levels will only put $500 to $1,000 at a time on the table, but not more, for fear they might mess up and lose it. A common exception to the above is the aggressive 'maniac' or ELA (extreme loose aggressive) player, who is willing to play larger, but only via brash fearlessness and a kamikaze-like attitude to losing very large amounts. This is a substitution of "boldness" and "money to burn" for skill and common sense. (Coincidentally, we love these guys!)
For the above reasons, when you see a poker player with a very large stack at an uncapped buy-in table, much of the time you can assume this player is wealthy (or foolish, or both) and unconcerned with chip risk. If said player demonstrates potentially exceptional levels of skill, creativity, and control, however, then watch out… because the deeply capitalized and deeply knowledgeable player is both very rare (relative to the other more common types) and very dangerous. And of course, to play a large stack calmly, confidently and creatively, for maximum EV (expected value) over the full span of decisions over time, one needs 'conscious competence' and an ability to perform under pressure… the same qualities required to pull meaningful sums out of markets (via skillful deployment of meaningful amounts).
As Jeff Yass, the founder of options-trading powerhouse Susquehanna, put it in New Market Wizards:
For more on the way poker has helped a trader make millions (billions?), read this excellent profile piece on Yass and Susquehanna.
And to which yours truly replied via comments, Hi Hasan, Here is a stream of consciousness (read: 100% off-the-cuff) reply that came out a little lengthier than expected… Different viewpoints are certainly welcome, and it takes all kinds to make a market. With that said, there is a certain "stopped clock" aspect to those who have been declaring the United States to be like the Roman Empire in its last days and predicting the imminent demise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. This thesis — that America is doomed — has essentially been in stasis for a decade or more. The thesis that Japan is going to collapse under its own fiscal weight has been around for even longer. Simple empirical evidence demands a rethink of aggressive assumptions that have failed to come to pass for years and years on end, especially when the drivers behind the argument have given no indication of adjusting or updating. The title of the Paul Craig Roberts article you cited was "Collapse at Hand." Really? The trouble is such article titles existed seven years ago. Calls for hyperinflation based on a collapse of the US Treasury bond market are also many years old now. Is it possible the timing was off and "at hand" just means waiting a little while longer? Maybe. Or maybe this view of the global economic puzzle is fundamentally misguided and wrong, via the failure to include some very important pieces… In addition to the above observation — all too many instances of "imminent demise" prediction have proven false — evidence is mounting that the China miracle is a fraud at worst and a fizzling bottle rocket at best. Indeed, there is ample and growing evidence that 1) China is the biggest malinvestment case of all time, as we have argued, and that 2) China is in real danger not just of hard landing, but outright economic implosion. It is hard to see China leaping to the fore of the 21st century when the entire country bears resemblance to a growth stock with cooked books that is about to suffer a collapse in confidence and a major restatement of earnings power, even as demographic disaster and the threat of supercycle food, water and energy shortage looms (three areas where the U.S. has a distinct global advantage by the way).
To better understand why U.S. assets (and strategically important advantages in food security and increasingly energy security) are so important not to leave out of the equation, consider how a run on treasury bonds (a UST implosion) would have to come about. If there were any attempt to sell off treasury bonds outright, the Federal Reserve would step in and begin buying USTs in unlimited qualities with electronically printed dollars. This in turn would keep bonds propped up, but threaten to collapse the US currency market. Downward pressure on USTs would cause US interest rates to rise, however, which would in turn jeopardize the entire global economic recovery. Fears of renewed economic meltdown as China and Europe sputter would lead to a recommitment to safe haven assets (like USTs), which in turn would induce buying of the same assets that were previously being sold off. In addition, given that the dollar would be the weakness transmission mechanism in any bond collapse (as the Fed can always print dollars with which to buy unlimited amounts of bonds), a rapidly weakening dollar would provide an absolutely compelling asset purchase proposition for desirable US assets. When the US dollar declines, it provides the ability to buy US assets at a discount relative to the alternative currency against which the dollar is falling. Thus, were the USD to show signs of collapsing, how quickly do you think overseas investors would begin to salivate at huge currency-induced opportunities in the shares of companies like Apple and Google and Exxon, or the currency-adjusted property values available in U.S. real estate (particularly the major coastal cities)? A flood of opportunistic capital would come in seeking to purchase trillions and trillions worth of discounted US assets, which in turn would put a floor under the sale of the currency. This dynamic works the same as assets on the balance sheet of a public company putting a floor on the falling share price, because at some point those with the ability to value the balance sheet assets cannot resist the bargains being presented. Finally, in order for $USD denominated assets and treasuries to collapse, someone has to explain the alternative destination, i.e. where many trillions in capital and reserves are going to flow. Into Europe? The European Union is on the verge of disintegration. Into China? The China miracle is in large part a smoke-and-mirrors vendor finance job, built on manipulated data foundations that cannot be trusted, with a growing threat of ponzi-style real estate collapse and civil unrest if/when a brittle authoritarian regime loses control of the economic plot. (Not to mention the frightening anti-Japanese nationalism the mandarins may already have lost control of — while populism has long been a useful government tool for massaging viewpoints and distracting the domestic populace, the genie cannot be put back in its bottle when stakes start to grow alarmingly high. Wars have been fought for worse reasons.) There has long been a certain moralistic, Calvinistic emphasis on the debt situation of the United States. In keeping with the country's protestant roots, many have taken the intrinsically appealing view that excessive accumulation of debt is a sin and that too much sin must bear consequences. But this hypothesis driven more by an intuitive sense of morality than observable economic drivers does not fit the actual picture of what is happening, or the relative advantages and disadvantages of the US not just as This touches on another key reason why the points are so confusing — the value of currencies and the desirability of liquid safe-haven assets are both expressed in relative terms. The dollar as a currency is considered in relation to the value of other currencies. United States' government debt is considered in relation to the stability and attractiveness of alternative safe haven assets. On both these measures, in the real world the U.S. does far better than one might expect, with relative advantages of the United States vis a vis China and Europe again getting stronger, not weaker. Could keep going, but trust the points are reasonably well made… JS Have an excellent weekend! Jack & Mike (jack@ / mike@ mercenarytrader.com) p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center!p.p.s. Break the Institutional Barrier - and Substantially Increase Assets Under Management! Access our FREE report to find out how...  Similar articles you might like:
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