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- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for October 12
- Goldman Sachs' 'Trade Of The Century': Long Euro Vs. Australian Dollar
- Golden Numbers, Ersatz Numbers & Profit Nuggets
- Wynter Benton is making noise again
- EU Awarded Nobel Prize For Economic Rape Of Europe
- Another Look at Cheap Gold Stocks
- Gold And Silver Capped Until After U.S. Election?
- CNYUSD Hits 19-Year High
- J.P. Morgan’s Profit Rises 34%
- Jeff Clark: The Solar Silver Thrust
- Embry – This War In Gold & Shorts Getting Overrun
- The $2 Trillion European Bailout Package Is Coming
- Turk – Expect A Massive Short Squeeze In Gold & Silver
- Steve Wynn on CNBC
- Are Precious Metals Capped until after US Election?
- Gold and US Political Parties
- Central Bank Policies 'Preclude Sharp Falls' for Bullion
- Will More Developments Next Week Excite Gold?
- When the Reign of the US Dollar Comes to an End
- Links 10/12/12
- Walmart, the Most Powerful Company in the World, Admits that Protests and Strikes Lead to Wage Increases
- Gold and Silver Market morning, October 12, 2012
- With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss
- Thoughts on Borrowing for Non-Productive Purchases
- How to Profit from the Imbalance in Platinum and Zinc Inventories: Matthew O'Keefe
- Links for 2012-10-11 [del.icio.us]
| Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for October 12 Posted: 12 Oct 2012 01:01 PM PDT HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (by 18:00 ET). |
| Goldman Sachs' 'Trade Of The Century': Long Euro Vs. Australian Dollar Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:40 AM PDT By Qineqt: The euro's long run average against the Australian dollar has been A$1.7, whereas currently it trades at ~A$1.25. Goldman views its "long euro and short AUD strategy"to be the trade of the century. The rationale for the strategy goes like this: Europe's problems have already been priced in the currency, whereas the problems for the Australian currency are manifesting themselves through the interest rate cuts, a tighter fiscal policy, and the menace of a slowing China affecting the Australian economy. Chart 1: EUR: AUD Goldman also holds the view that the Australian dollar is at least 20% overvalued against the U.S. dollar, and given the slowing economy and the pressure on commodity prices, a sharp correction is in order. Australian exports Complete Story » |
| Golden Numbers, Ersatz Numbers & Profit Nuggets Posted: 12 Oct 2012 10:29 AM PDT "Can't debate, so they changed the job numbers." Jack Welch, former General Electric CEO Jack Welch's Intuition – that the Official Numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are Bogus -- is correct (as we demonstrate below). The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is 22.8% per shadowstats.com. But of equal importance is Welch's focus on the importance of having reliable numbers as the basis for making sound Business Decisions (and Investment Decisions, we add) in order to protect Wealth and Profit. So we lay out here certain critically important Numbers, and indicate resultant Profit Potential. Consider, for example, Key Numbers which will help determine the future Gold Price (and notwithstanding the Idle comments of Fossils who consider Gold to be an Archaic Relic). In the first two months of Last Year, Chinese Gold Imports from Hong Kong were about 11,000 kilograms. This year, for the same period Imports were 72,000 kilograms for the same period, about a 650% Increase. Yet China is now the largest Gold producer on the Earth. Conclusion: China is Hoarding Gold. And several Central Banks are increasing their Gold Holdings as well. Key Profit Nuggets: Despite the foregoing, Gold Stocks are in the aggregate are trading at levels similar to when Gold was under $1000/oz. Conclusion: Gold Shares are going higher and the only question is "when", a question to which we respond in our Alerts. Intensifying our focus on Jobs Numbers, they are Critically Important to Investors because they are a Reflection of Economic Health (and thus the Tenure of Politicians) and thus the "Earnings Climate" for Corporations. Consider: "The August-to-September change in the headline unemployment rate almost certainly was not a 0.3% decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) knows the reported change in unemployment was wrong—other than by extreme coincidence—and it knows what consistent reporting actually showed. Only politics prevents the BLS from releasing the correct number, whether the unemployment rate actually declined, held even, or rose as predicted by consensus forecasters. The lack of transparency here in the data preparation allows for direct political manipulation. "The problem is that the BLS knowingly has been preparing the seasonally-adjusted headline unemployment numbers on an inconsistent and non-comparable basis for some time. The September number was prepared using a different set of seasonal factors than was used in coming up with the August number." "No. 473: September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCEDeflator" John Williams, shadowstats.com, 10/5/12 Thus, we reiterate, the US Jobs Numbers for September released in early October were Bogus. Real Unemployment is 22.8%. Moreover, contrary to the False Claim of Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis, that the upward revisions of jobs were from the Private Sector, they were actually from upward revisions to State and Federal Government Payroll. Private Sector job Growth actually decreased by 5000, Joel B. Pollak - Breitbart. The broader official U6 rate, i.e., the part-time and discouraged workers Unemployment Rate, actually stayed unchanged at 14.7%. Significantly, if the labor force participation rate were the same as when President Obama took office, the Official Unemployment Rate would be 10.7% and the Real Rate higher than 22.8%. Moreover, we are still on pace to create fewer jobs than last year according to a report by James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Inst. And consider another critically Important number -- the Money Supply Growth and consequent Hyperinflation Potential. John Williams: "…the preliminary estimate of annual growth for the September 2012 SGS Ongoing-M3 Estimate… is on track to hit 3.3%, up from a revised 3.2% (previously 3.1%) in August… the upturn in annual broad money growth that began in February 2011, had faltered, leveled out and now is notching higher again. Such a pattern—in an environment of massive Federal Reserve accommodation—still remains suggestive of an intensifying systemic-solvency crisis." Id. Yes, indeed. And, following up on that same point, consider the Inflationary Implications of the Fact that a chart of True Money Supply plus Excess Bank Reserves parked at The Fed is Now going Hyperbolic, indeed, virtually straight Up in recent months. "On October 6, GoldMoney posted my podcast with Robert Wenzel of EconomicPolicyJournal.com. In that podcast, Wenzel expressed concern about the future inflationary implications of the build-up of excess reserves on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Excess reserves represent balance sheet cash parked at the Federal Reserve Board by commercial banks. "Being the banks' own money, they can gear up their balance sheets on it whenever they choose to do so. However, putting aside the gearing potential of excess reserves, we should at least treat it as cash, despite it being regarded as out of public circulation. There is therefore a strong case for it to be included in the True, or Austrian Money Supply quantity. "TMS is basically cash plus instantly encashable accounts. The chart below is of TMS plus excess deposits at the Fed from 1960 to the present day. "Worryingly it conforms to a hyperbolic curve, which is already going vertical in the fashion of a hockey-stick. Where this measure of money has deviated from the hyperbola it has done so by increasing faster than the hyperbola itself… "We can be sure the Fed doesn't want to look at things this way; but now that the increase in TMS plus excess reserves is beginning to lag behind the curve, it indicates that monetary policy is failing… "Confirmation of this alarming discovery is to be found in the chart below, which is of gold from 1900 onwards, and has its own hyperbola… "… together they represent confirmation of the ultimate collapse of paper money." "Accelerating money supply and gold prices" goldmoney.com, 10/8/12 True Money Supply compared to the Price of Gold: http://www.goldmoney.com/images/char...s-reserves.png. Therefore, it is not surprising that Real U.S. Inflation is 9.33% -- Threshold Hyperinflationary. From all the foregoing, John Williams correctly concludes: "…while general circumstances have continued to advance towards the ultimate demise of the dollar, the general outlook is unchanged. While QE3 is an enabling action for the onset of massive inflation, the outside timing of 2014 for the ShadowStats.com hyperinflation forecast remains in place… "The official recovery simply is a statistical illusion created by the government's use of understated inflation in deflating the GDP, which overstates deflated economic growth… "The long-term fiscal solvency issues of the United States—where GAAP-based accounting shows annual deficits running in the $5 trillion range—are not being addressed… "Neither economic nor systemic-solvency issues have been resolved by U.S. government or Federal Reserve actions, and the most recent readings on income variance suggest that the worst is yet to be seen… "With the economy weak enough to provide political cover for further Federal Reserve accommodation to the still-struggling banking system, QE3 was introduced on September 13th. That action effectively provided for open-ended monetization of U.S. Treasury debt at the Fed's discretion. The mechanism for eventual full debasement of the dollar now is in place, and it likely will come into full play, as needed to support the banking system and as needed to assure "successful" auctions of Treasury debt. "QE3 likely will lead to a massive dollar-selling crisis, and that will begin the process of a rapid upturn in domestic consumer inflation. A near-term dollar-selling crisis is now of a much greater risk, post-QE3. Separately, though, a dollar-selling crisis could begin at any time…" "No. 473: September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCEDeflator" John Williams, shadowstats.com, 10/5/12 Profit Nugget: Only the Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver, and certain essential Tangible Assets such as Energy and Food will serve as Profit Centers and Stores of value as the Inflation Acceleration proceeds. Deepcaster has made specific Recommendations aimed at Protection and Profit from these in recent Letters and Alerts referenced in the Notes below. And since Real Jobs Growth or lack thereof is a reflection of Economic Health, consider Williams' conclusion: "The BLS reported today (October 5th) a statistically-insignificant, seasonally-adjusted September 2012 month-to-month payroll employment gain of 114,000… See Chart here: http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/2012...0094806113945b "Despite the ongoing and regular overstatement of monthly payroll employment—as evidenced usually by regular and massive, annual downward benchmark revisions (2011 and the just-announced 2012, excepted)—the BLS generally adds in upside monthly biases to the payroll employment numbers. The process was created simply by adding in a monthly "bias factor," so as to prevent the otherwise potential political embarrassment of the BLS understating monthly jobs growth… That process eventually was recast as the now infamous Birth-Death Model (BDM), which purportedly models the effects of new business creation versus existing business bankruptcies. "…At present that is a monthly average of roughly 47,000 jobs created out of thin air… as part of the BDM… "The aggregated upside annual reporting bias in the BDM reflects an ongoing assumption of a net positive jobs creation by new companies versus… "The broadest unemployment rate published by the BLS, U.6 includes accounting for those marginally attached to the labor force (including short-term discouraged workers) and those who are employed part-time for economic reasons (they cannot find a full-time job). The September U.6 unemployment rate held at a seasonally-adjusted 14.7%... "In 1994, during the Clinton Administration, "discouraged workers"—those who had given up looking for a job because there were no jobs to be had—were redefined so as to be counted only if they had been "discouraged" for less than a year. This time qualification defined away the long-term discouraged workers. The remaining short-term discouraged workers (less than one year) are included in U.6. "Adding the SGS estimate of excluded long-term discouraged workers back into the total unemployed and labor force, unemployment—more in line with common experience as estimated by the SGS-Alternate Unemployment Measure—held at 22.8% in September, the same as in August…" Id. Profit Nugget: When considering the Prospects for any Investment or Trade, it is essential to consider The Real Numbers which reflect the Actual and Prospective Economic and Financial Context in which the Investment or Trade is Made. Conclusion: regarding the effect of the foregoing Real Numbers, Marc Faber recently agreed with Deepcaster's earlier forecast that there would be a "Great Equities Crash in 2013." "'Basically, I think QE3, which I think is unlimited, and bond purchases by the ECB bailout of countries have been largely discounted by the market, and the markets have been weakening technically, so I believe that we hamy have here quite a serious setback,' he said…. "'I justwant to have a lot of cash because I think that within the next six to nine months, we can buy just about anything 20 percent lower than it is now.'… "'…if I look at the presidential candidates today, if Obama is elected, I think the Dow Jones should be negative -13,473, and if Romney gets elected, it should be minus '6,000.'" "Marc Faber: Market Setting Up for 'Serious Setback", Bruno J Navarrro, CNBC, finance.yahoo.com, 10/10/12 Profit Nugget: Be Prepared to short Most Equities at the right time in the next few months. Best regards, Deepcaster October 11, 2012 Note 1: The $US dropped nearly 200 basis points at one point in the last two weeks. No surprise since the Fed's U.S. Dollar-Destructive Q.E. to Infinity Action, coupled with the ECB's Similar Action the week before, boosted the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar, as we earlier Forecast. The very recent $US bounce does not change its weakening Trend. This Debauchery of the $US weakens its Purchasing Power and thus increases Burdens on the agonized disappearing Middle Class. The Bernanke claim that buying $40 billion per month in Mortgage Backed Securities would Stimulate the Economy and help the Housing Market is just a Fictitious Cover Story. In fact, it is just another Gift to the Mega-Banks who hold Underwater Paper, and to Wall Street which proceeded to rally on The Fed-sugared High. Both the Continuous Commodities Index which show Average Annual Price Inflation of 15% and the Real Inflation Number (9.3% per year from shadowstats.com) reveal Serious Inflation is with us and it Intensifying. And Especially Food Price Inflation. To increase Yields, Farmers increasingly employ Fertilizer. And last week's Buy Reco – a Fertilizer Producer – was trading near its 52 week low at under 40¢ per share when we first recommended it. It has moved up nicely since we recommended you buy in. But it has such great potential that we raise our original "buy under" price to 45¢ per share. To see our recent Buy Reco aimed at Profiting from the Fed's Inflation Rocket, read Deepcaster's recent Alert, "Buy Reco (under 40¢/share) to Ride Inflation Rocket; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, & Equities," recently posted in 'Alerts Cache', on deepcaster.com. Note 2: "Debauch – to dissipate; to corrupt morally; to lead away from excellence or virtue; to reduce the value, quality, or excellence of…" The Fed's U.S. Dollar-Destructive Q.E. to Infinity Action, coupled with the ECB's Similar Action the week before, boosted the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar, as we earlier Forecast. But both Actions Guaranteed Accelerating Price Inflation and thus Deepcaster recommends a Buy Reco (trading around a mere $2.50 per share) to ride that Inflation Rocket. This Debauchery of the $US weakens its Purchasing Power and thus increases Burdens on the agonized disappearing Middle Class. The Bernanke claim that buying $40 billion per month in Mortgage Backed Securities would Stimulate the Economy and help the Housing Market is just a Fictitious Cover Story. In fact, it is just another Gift to the Mega-Banks who hold Underwater Paper, and to Wall Street which proceeded to rally on a Fed-sugared High. And, of course, it is a pre-election Gift to President Obama. Important Consequences will ensue. To see the Great Profit Potential flowing from this QE and our recent Buy Reco aimed at Profiting from it, read Deepcaster's recent Alert, "Surmounting Debauchery with Profit; Buy Reco to ride Inflation Rocket; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; Equities," recently in 'Alerts Cache' at www.deepcaster.com. |
| Wynter Benton is making noise again Posted: 12 Oct 2012 09:40 AM PDT I remember these guys from earlier this year but didn't follow them close enough to know whether they are fos or legit. We'll find out Tuesday on this call. October 16 to October 23, 2012 By wynter_benton . Oct 10, 2012 10:58 AM . Permalink The Leader wishes to inform our followers that the group will be demonstrating our ability to move the price of silver between October 16 to October 23, 2012. We will be updating our moves in real time during this period. Hold on to you seats because what you are about to see will dwarf what we did in February 2011. ....do da, do da..... Sentiment: Strong Sell http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/user...b=c&sto=d&lv=s |
| EU Awarded Nobel Prize For Economic Rape Of Europe Posted: 12 Oct 2012 09:16 AM PDT It seems impossible to believe that the Nobel Prize committee could have disgraced itself any further than when it awarded its "Peace Prize" to Barack Obama in 2009. Obama received his farcical reward for perpetuating one brutal, decade-long military occupation (Afghanistan); while he was also busy supplying military training and re-arming Iraqi Sunnis – in preparation for a new civil war in Iraq. One of the supposed pretexts for the U.S.'s illegal/illegitimate invasion of Iraq was to protect Iraq's Shiite majority from the Sunni faction in that nation. Thus training and re-arming the Sunnis was the ultimate proof of the illegitimacy of that invasion, even beyond the fabricated "evidence" of WMD's. Similarly, awarding a "peace prize" for the U.S.'s murderous betrayal of the Iraqi people is proof that these once-prestigious awards have become nothing but a pathetic, political sham. Yet in 2012, the Nobel Prize committee has been able to exceed its previous, repugnant hypocrisy. It has awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the European Union, for its central role in perpetrating the economic rape of the peoples of Europe. Indeed, with this one Prize the Nobel committee has demonstrated that these awards are now nothing but political propaganda – whose only purpose is to try to make "black" appear "white". We see this clearly displayed with the fabricated pretext for making this award: The European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize for fostering peace on a continent ravaged by war. The reality is that the in 2012 the EU did precisely the opposite of this. Understand that the "unity crisis" which has now engulfed the EU was created by the EU – this year. There was no unity crisis at the beginning of the year. This "crisis" didn't begin until the EU had completed its economic destruction of Greece's economy. Here again the facts are unequivocal. The EU demanded that Greece's supposedly sovereign government follow its own "plan" to supposedly rescue Greece's economy…except there was no plan. The EU simply forced Europe's least-solvent government to borrow countless billions more euros – with interest. How can forcing an insolvent debtor to borrow more money solve a "debt crisis"? Obviously it can't. It is the most-literal example imaginable of the cliché of "putting out the fire with gasoline." It's also important that readers are aware of the political/economic blackmail engaged in by the EU as it forced this economic suicide on Greece. It demanded that Greece continue to impose sadistic "austerity" on its population, even after economic data clearly showed this was accelerating the collapse of Greece's economy. Meanwhile the EU warned of numerous acts of economic retribution should Greece's government fail to accede to its terms of blackmail. |
| Another Look at Cheap Gold Stocks Posted: 12 Oct 2012 08:26 AM PDT Fundamentals always trump psychology in the long run. The gold miners are making profits hand over fist at recent gold levels, driving this sector deep into value-investment territory. Eventually new investors inevitably take notice of extreme values. |
| Gold And Silver Capped Until After U.S. Election? Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:37 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Today's AM fix was USD 1,767.00, EUR 1,362.80, and GBP 1,101.35 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,767.25, EUR 1,371.45 and GBP 1,103.29 per ounce. Silver is trading at $33.96/oz, €26.27/oz and £21.21/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,679.50/oz, palladium at $648.80/oz and rhodium at $1,205/oz. Gold edged up $4.60 or 0.26% in New York yesterday which saw gold close at $1,767.50. Silver climbed to a high of $34.33 and then fell off and finished with a marginal loss of 0.12%. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:36 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: Precious metal prices crept higher yesterday, as expectations that Spain will request a bailout increased among traders. Gains in the EURUSD continue to coincide with gains in the metals, and other so-called "risk" assets. The Dollar Index (USDX) has held surprisingly firm since the Federal Reserve's adoption of unlimited quantitative easing a month ago, but the longer-term USDX chart suggests the dollar will head lower in the coming weeks and months, as we've had a rally into the 80s, and are now due a fall back into the mid-to-low 70s. 72.00 on the USDX remains the key all-time price low (first reached in March 2008, and again in April 2011). Third time will likely be third time lucky for the bears, given the Fed's determination to trash the greenback. Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| J.P. Morgan’s Profit Rises 34% Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:33 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s third-quarter earnings rose 34% as the bank saw revenue rise and its provision for credit losses fall. Results topped Wall Street expectations. J.P. Morgan's results kick off the reporting season for U.S. banks, delivering investors the first look at a quarter expected to be stronger than last year's lackluster results, thanks to revenue from mortgage lending and fixed-income capital markets. Obstacles however continue to abound, including low interest rates and increasing competition for loans. The largest U.S. bank by assets has been in the spotlight since early April as its outsized, complex trades on credit default swaps tied to corporate bonds came under intense scrutiny during the "London Whale" debacle. In July, J.P. Morgan revealed that trading losses on synthetic credit derivatives had amounted to $5.8 billion and could increase by as much as $1.7 billion in what it deemed a worst-case scenario. The following month it restated its first-quarter results, which included the loss resulting from the ill-placed investment hedges, and admitted to a "material weakness" in internal controls. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Jeff Clark: The Solar Silver Thrust Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:30 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: Yesterday in Gold and Silver Gold hit its low price tick of the day [around $1,759 spot] at 10:00 a.m. in Hong Kong…11:00 a.m. in Tokyo…on their Thursday morning. From that low, the price had rallied about seventeen bucks by ten minutes after the Comex open in New York…and $1,776.00 spot was the high tick of the day at that point. And that, as they say, was that. In less than twenty-five minutes, the usual not-for-profit sellers had sold the gold price back down below the New York open…and the subsequent rally was dispatched in the usual way at precisely 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. By noon the selling was done…and the gold price traded quietly into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Embry – This War In Gold & Shorts Getting Overrun Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:22 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today John Embry told King World News, "We are literally witnessing a war between the physical buyers (Eastern central banks), and the paper manipulators (commercials or bullion banks), and that is why there is such a fierce battle being waged in gold between $1,735 and $1,800." Embry also stated, "If the commercials run into trouble (with their massive short positions), KWN readers will see a move in gold that will leave them breathless." Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say: "This is one of those moments in the gold market where there is a distinct possibility that we will see a commercial signal failure. A commercial signal failure is an extremely rare event, but we could well be setting up for just such an occurrence right now." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| The $2 Trillion European Bailout Package Is Coming Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:20 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today Jeffrey Saut spoke with King World News about gold, a $2 trillion bailout in Europe, and what investors should expect going forward. Saut, who is Chief Investment Strategist for $360 billion Raymond James, had this to say about discussion of a $2 trillion European bailout: "I had mentioned that in the past, and that's the kind of bazooka you need to pull to try to at least get over the short-to-intermediate-term funding problems." Here is what Saut had this to say: "I have said it, politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers are the same in Europe as they are here. They do not want to lose their power, and if the EU implodes, they all lose their power. So I think they are going to continue papering over the situation, and try to buy more time, just like we did here in our '07/'08 financial fiasco." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Turk – Expect A Massive Short Squeeze In Gold & Silver Posted: 12 Oct 2012 07:19 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today James Turk told King World News, "This is a battle between the sellers of paper-gold and the buyers of physical gold." Turk also warned, "… we could soon be seeing a massive short squeeze in gold and silver." Here is what Turk had to say: "Gold and silver are getting very close to an all-important upside breakout, Eric. When gold breaks above $1780 and silver hurdles over $35, both metals will rocket higher. I think we are getting very close to that moment, and I expect that the jump in precious metal prices will be something spectacular." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 06:35 AM PDT Sometimes we "listen" to CNBC with just our left ear, not really all that interested. But when Steve Wynn is interviewed we listen up. The interview speaks for itself. Source: CNBC |
| Are Precious Metals Capped until after US Election? Posted: 12 Oct 2012 05:40 AM PDT Gold has seen volatile and choppy trading overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning with the price being capped at $1,772/oz. and in a tight range between $1,767 and $1,772/oz. |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 05:30 AM PDT Lew Rockwell |
| Central Bank Policies 'Preclude Sharp Falls' for Bullion Posted: 12 Oct 2012 05:23 AM PDT The US dollar gold price eased lower Friday morning in London, falling to $1,767 an ounce, 0.7% down on the start of the week, while stock markets also ticked lower and commodities were broadly flat. The silver price fell below $34 an ounce. |
| Will More Developments Next Week Excite Gold? Posted: 12 Oct 2012 04:40 AM PDT A small rebound in gold price this week was helped by better than expected US jobless claims, which fell by 30,000 to 339,000 during the week ending Oct. 6. The higher optimism towards the US economy helps commodities and equities to rebound. |
| When the Reign of the US Dollar Comes to an End Posted: 12 Oct 2012 04:13 AM PDT So what will the world look like when the dollar has crashed, and international investors and traders have lost all of their confidence in the greenback? The truth is if that happens it won't be like anything we've seen within living memory. |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 03:47 AM PDT Billions required to save nature BBC PayPal Joined the Party Amy Schmitz, Credit Slips. In a bad way. Anonymous declares war on WikiLeaks in retaliation for "paywall" ars technica Lawyers for Julian Assange & WikiLeaks Seek Details on Justice Department's Criminal Investigation Kevin Gosztola, Firedoglake In praise of … Julia Gillard Guardian. This is an editorial, not an op ed. What happens when national income falls? MacroBusiness Top German Economists Say Greece Is Lost Der Spiegel Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity Financial Times Turkey accuses Russia of supplying Syria with munitions Guardian (Roland) Seven Royal Marines arrested on suspicion of murder in Afghanistan Telegraph Sanctions Against Iranian Banks is Economic Warfare Real News Network Geithner has phone friend at BlackRock Financial Times Triumph of the Wrong? Paul Krugman, New York Times Missing Mitt in Iowa Financial Times (Richard Smith) Children and Grandchilden Do Not Pay for Budget Deficits, They Get Interest on the Bonds Dean Baker Tent City Rising: Occupy Austin Attempts New Encampments (#OATX Birthday, UPDATED) Kit OConnell, Firedoglake Many Retailers Balk at Card-Fee Settlement Wall Street Journal We've Gotten To The Bottom Of The Mysterious Jobless Claims Report! Clusterstock The latest pickup in state and local government jobs is not sustainable Sober Look Economists See Slow 2013 Growth Wall Street Journal Mission elapsed time: T + 34 and counting* "The problems of the real world are primarily those you are left with when you refuse to apply their effective solutions." –Edsger W. Dijkstra Walmart. Respect: "OUR Walmart [Organization United for Respect at Walmart] does not claim to be a union; it does not seek formal recognition from either the NLRB or even from Wal-Mart. But it does seek to give effective voice to those Wal-Mart associates willing to join. I met four of them when they came to a writing workshop at UC Santa Barbara. They were working-class folks with all the insecurities, bills, family problems, and job issues faced by millions of retail and service workers. And they were incredibly brave, because they were determined to tell their story, to explain why their work life at Wal-Mart was so often punctuated by a series of humiliations, petty and grand, that they found intolerable. Joining OUR Walmart was a gamble they were willing to take" (good explainer). … Money: "Most Walmart employees can't afford to strike for any extended period of time either, and Greg, Charlene and William [Fletcher] will be back at work in the lead up to Black Friday. 'Walmart doesn't pay us enough to give us any kind of savings,' William explains. 'I'm sure it's by design.'" … Jobs: "Each new Walmart store hires, on average, 450 workers, and since the recession, 5,000 to 6,000 applicants have been vying for one of those jobs. That means just 7.5 to 9 percent of hopefuls will get hired. By these numbers, Walmart today is more competitive than the Ivy League." And no legacies! … Walmart at 50: "The America Walmart helped to create isn't working for most of us" (the corporate site). … Corruption: "[A]lthough Walmart claims to be monitoring its factories' compliance with environmental and labor rules, its auditing system is plagued by corruption." Shocker! … Corruption: "Meredith Boucher, a former [Winsor, Ontario] Walmart assistant manager in Canada, was awarded $1.49 million after suing for mistreatment in the workplace/" … Pressure works: "Walmart employees will now be able to get heart, spine and transplant surgeries at six of the nation's most prestigious hospitals at no cost, the world's largest retailer announced Thursday." Right, right, but what have you done for us lately? And it would be better if warehouse work didn't wreak your spine in the first place, eh? FL. Voting: "From Key West to Pensacola, thousands of absentee or mail ballots were discarded in the Aug. 14 statewide primary because voters overlooked a requirement that they sign the envelope containing their ballot, even though the instructions conspicuously remind voters to do it." … Crowds: "'Don't boo, vote!' Obama said quickly. The crowd exploded with applause. By the end of the speech, Obama turned the phrase into a call and response. Obama: 'Don't boo … ' Crowd: '… Vote!'" Truly spontaneous and/or great advance work. MA. Warren/Brown: "The League of Conservation Voters, Americans for Tax Reform and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies have spent more than $1 million on robo-calls, direct mail and door-to-door canvassing in the last three weeks trying to influence what political strategists say is a pivotal race in the fight for control of the Senate." Although both candidates pledged no outside money. MD. Walmart: "Members of [Making Change at Walmart (here)] passed out leaflets both inside and outside the store. Store managers and associates asked them to leave several times and a Walmart associate stood at the main door taking the flyers away from employees and customers as they entered." ME. King/Summers/Dill debate: "[DILL (D): 'My two opponents should put aside their bickering about money. It's the one thing they both have in common." Ouch, but she's only running left because she's out of the race. MT. The tribes: "A group of American Indians from the Crow, Northern Cheyenne and Fort Belknap reservations sued state and county election officials in federal court. The lack of satellite election offices on reservations, the plaintiffs allege, forces Indians to drive long distances to vote at the county seat, is discriminatory and denies Indians their voting and civil rights." NY. Green party: "[At Grandy debate, which the D didn't attend, Green candidate Ursula] Rozum could win some name recognition and a new audience for her views. Buerkle and Maffei are so far tied in a rematch of the 2010 race, most polls show. Rozum is getting about 7%" (Bob). OH. Voting: "The Sixth Circuit has decided SEIU v. Husted and NEOCH v. Husted in a single opinion. This is the most important decision in this election cycle. [T]he main point: it violates the Constitution (equal protection and due process) for the state of Ohio to fail to count ballots cast in the right location but in the wrong precinct solely because of poll worker error." … The Romney: "With post-debate polls showing him within striking distance of Obama in the all-important swing state, Romney will spend four days this week in OH." TX. Keystone: "[T]wo reporters covering the protests for The New York Times were covering a protest on private land yesterday when they were handcuffed and detained by a security guard for TransCanada (the Canadian company behind the pipeline) and local police. The reporters were on the private land at the invitation of the landowner." WA. Police state: "Why was the only federally identified May Day vandal sentenced to time served (about a month) while people granted immunity from prosecution–[Leah-Lynn Plante] says government attorneys don't dispute that she wasn't even in Seattle on May Day–are looking down the barrel of 18 months in federal custody?" Fracking. Exxon-funded (!) German study: "For now, the only fracking that should be allowed is exploratory wells [PDF] and single model demonstration projects–under extensive safety conditions–designed to define and optimize the state of the art, gain a greater understanding of the impacts of fracking, and test practices. Such efforts should only occur along with extensive in-depth dialogue with stakeholders and new statutory and planning structures." Grand Bargain™-brand Catfood watch. Biden/Ryan debate: "Who won the debate? Billionaires, when Martha Raddatz said SS & Medicare are going bankrupt, and Biden didn't argue" (DCB; the transcript; McClatchy fact check. It's actually worse: Ryan said that's an "indisputable fact," and Biden shifted to snark about Palin instead of nailing him on it. So much for "flat guarantee" (NC 2012-08-16). Medicare, ditttoez). Outside baseball. Charters: "Apparently audiences won't pay to see a movie that demonizes teachers' unions. Won't Back Down had the worst opening weekend of any film in wide distribution (over 2,500 theaters) in the past 30 years." … 'What do you mean, "we"? "In a new, special-edition 'Election Issue' out today, Businessweek poses Reagan's memorable question: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? That, Peter Coy writes on page 72, "depends on the meaning of 'we.'" Doesn't it always? Control of the Senate. Emergent parties: "Recently, a poll of the MT U.S. Senate race showed these results: Tester (D. incumbent) 44%, Rehberg ® 42%, Cox (Libertarian) 8%, undecided 6%. A poll of the NV U.S. Senate race showed: Heller (R incumbent) 47%, Berkeley (D) 44%, Vanderbeek (Independent American) 4%, other or undecided 5%." Robama vs. Obomney watch. Health care: "'[ROMNEY:] We don't have a setting across this country where if you don't have insurance, we just say to you, 'Tough luck, you're going to die when you have your heart attack." (Except we do: "More than 26,000 working-age adults die prematurely in the US each year because they lack health insurance." Unfortunately for the Ds, the ACA still leaves 30 million uninsured, so to nail Romney, the Ds would have to explain why they shoved those 30 million out of the life boat to die even if they did insure others. Should be interesting to watch!) The trail. Swing states: "Are there reasonable explanations for the gap between national and state polls? [5.5% vs. 2.1% debate bounce for Romney. Here's] a possibility. Campaigns might matter. There hasn't been a campaign where the battleground states have endured so many advertisements for so long before the rest of the country even began to tune in. This was also a campaign where the conventional wisdom has long held that attacks on Romney did al ot of damage, especially in OH." … Microtargeting: "Campaign aides for Romney and the RNC are excited because they believe their ability to locate demographic and issue blocs of sympathetic voters and turn them out — without accidentally pitching and turning out voters inclined to support Obama — has been refined to the point where it's close to error-free. Beeson likened the campaign's microtargeting to being able to isolate grains of sand, saying they have 'never had the level of granularity we have now.' Reminds me of GOTV trash talk in the Walker recall."' … Voting: "Based on what the Prospect could glean from [True the Vote Attorney Brook] Akers and from state groups that claim a connection with True the Vote, it appears that the group could fall well short of its million-watcher goal." …. Obama/Romney II: "Given that the debate will be a town hall, the format may be somewhat better for the president than the last debate. And [t]he press had an incentive before the first debate to report Romney as a winner in order to keep the race competitive. This time, though, much of the media may be inclined to give Obama the benefit of the doubt: After all, what's better than a comeback story?" (Larry Sabato) … Overtime: "One Democratic operative said he considers preparations for legal challenges as important as get-out-the-vote efforts." Biden/Ryan debate. Taegan Goddard: "The vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan was one of the best debates I can remember. It was a great service to all Americans." I must be too jaundiced (or not). … "Malarkey": "Biden came out firing from the outset, and in characteristic fashion. He dismissed as 'a bunch of malarkey' Ryan's first answer, which had tried to frame the September attack that killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, as part of a broader 'unraveling' of Obama's foreign policy." Will be interesting to see if "malarkey" propagates. Will Obama use it? … Biden's snickering: "Biden and Ryan were the two candidates on stage at Thursday's vice presidential debate, but a third character emerged: Joe Biden's laugh, which didn't escape the notice of tweeting politicos." … Biden's snickering: "Biden's chuckles, sighs and interruptions during the first and only vice presidential debate with Ryan, took off on the Internet during the debate." Unlike Gore's "sighing," this actually happened and was noticed in real time, not days later. … Ezra Klein: " I remember walking away from our first debate [Klein v. Ryan] somewhat confused. The deeper we drilled into the regulations in Ryan's plan, the more they sounded like the very plans he was arguing against." Tactically, Biden was good at cornering Ryan in just this way. Strategically, this is a function of the very narrow differences between the parties, not the skill of the debaters. … WSJ: "it's not clear whether a fairly bloody draw will be enough to blunt Mr. Romney's obvious momentum — or, on the other hand, be enough for him to pull even with the president in critical swing states where he still trails, if by reduced margins." Discourse note: Qualifying (a**-covering) adverbs like "fairly" are a tell for insider and wannabe insider discourse. See Strunk, Rule #1. … Polls: "48% of voters who watched the vice presidential debate think that Ryan won the showdown, according to a CNN/ORC International nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff. 44% say Biden was victorious. The R running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more R than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error." The Romney. Surge? "For the time being, however, Romney continues to rocket forward in our projections. The forecast model now gives him about a one-in-three chance of winning the Electoral College" (Nate Silver). The Obama. Things you never want to hear your pollster say: "'Polls will go up, polls will go down,' campaign director of opinion research David Simas said." And at the end of the day, one candidate wins! * Slogan of the day: Victory Belongs To The Romney! * * * Antidote du jour:
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| Posted: 12 Oct 2012 03:40 AM PDT Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can follow him at http://www.twitter.com/matthewstoller For the first time ever, a strike is taking place in America aimed at the most powerful company in the economy: Walmart. Workers at Walmart stores across the country, as Josh Eidelson reports, are threatening to walk out on Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year. These labor actions are coming on top of earlier labor actions at Walmart's warehouse contractors linked to "non-payment of overtime, non-payment for all hours worked, and even pay less than the minimum wage." The possible strike could be very significant, because the target of the strike is the most important driver of the race to the bottom economy. Walmart is massive – the company is the largest private employer in the US, with more than 2 million employees. The average American household spends $3500 at Walmart, and in 2006, the company alone represented 2.3% of the American GDP. The company is so powerful that when a Walmart Supercenter comes into your community, the entire community's obesity rate increases. It is also, as New America scholar Barry Lynn has argued in End of the Line, a force that has reshaped the American corporate world. Though known for suppressing wages, I found evidence that the company is willing to change working conditions with sufficient pressure. According to St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole, the last time there was significant labor unrest at Walmart, in 2006, the company raised wages at 700 stores. Poole, like many at the Fed, regularly spoke with Walmart executives, and they gave him unvarnished views about their business practices because they believed (as did Poole) that the information would be used solely for macro-economic forecasting. On March 27-28, 2006, Poole said that his Walmart contact told him the company would not raise wages, and was planning on moving their work force increasingly towards part-time employment. Poole was interested in this because of its bearing on inflation. "Wages," he said, "and these are for hourly workers, are absolutely flat – no increases whatsoever in the last year and no increases planned going forward." Poole continued, "About 20 percent of their associates are part time and that they are going to be increasing that share to 40 percent so they can staff at peak times and get more productivity out of their workforce." Just two months later, Poole offered some very different and shocking news, "My Wal-Mart contact also said that "Wal-Mart is in the process of raising starting wages in about 700 stores. This is the first time in eight years of talking with him that I've heard any comment like that. He said that some of the raises are part of the Wal-Mart, I'll call it "Social/political" agenda because of all the controversy about Wal-Mart." The FOMC transcripts are as close as we're going to get to internal corporate dialogue without discovery or leaks. The reason I found this information is because Walmart has become a significant presence at the Fed; forecasters at the key Federal Open Market Committee meetings increasingly rely on what the retailer tells them about the economy. Now, FOMC transcripts aren't released for at least five years, so we don't know whether this strike is registering with those high level policymakers. But the last time there was a far less aggressive union-backed attack on Walmart's business practices, it did. As for the strike, it is potentially one of the biggest stories of the year, a genuine challenge to the current economic order. Walmart has set the tone for the global economy, becoming a massive trading empire on the order of the British East Indies Trading company. Walmart has, as New America scholar Barry Lynn argued in End of the Line, reshaped the American corporate world. The key to Walmart's dominance is the way that it electronically tracks all of its merchandise through an enormously efficient supply chain – the data Walmart has about who buys what and when is incredibly valuable to manufacturers. Beyond that, the size of Walmart – eight cents of every dollar spent on retail in the US goes through the company – means that selling at scale in the US means selling through Walmart. In order to sell there, though, Walmart walks into your company and dictates how you are to manufacture, price, and package your product. As Lynn writes:
Rubbermaid and Newell, Kellogg's and Keebler, Kraft and Nabisco, and Procter & Gamble and Gillette are all mergers forced by Walmart's buying system. As Lynn notes, "Wal-Mart is so powerful that even many giant and long-independent producers—firms like Procter & Gamble and Unilever—dare not question its dictates." The logistics revolution that has ripped through the American economy, de-industrializing the country and deflating wages, came through Walmart. This process brings low prices, but has also put the entire economy at risk with its lack of redundancy and concentration of key supply bottlenecks in unstable areas. The company, not surprisingly, is also known for brutal tactics against workers. It is known for retaliating against employers who attempt to organize. Walmart employees often rely on food stamps and Medicaid, because of insufficient wages and lack of adequate health care. In 2005, according to St Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole, Walmart "observed among their own employees a reduction in health care utilization – that is, fewer doctors' visits – but an increase in emergency room visits. Apparently employees are struggling some to make the co-payments and that kind of thing, again emphasizing the stress that exists in many lower-income households." It is also a huge political force - the company successfully fought off a massive gender discrimination suit struck down by the Supreme Court on technical grounds. New York Public Advocate Bill de Blasio unveiled the site Six Degrees of Walmart after the company was caught in a bribery scandal in Mexico (where it is the largest private employer). Deflating worker wages and weakening political constraints are core to the Walmart model, as important as pulling in products from China and forcing a restructuring of the American supply chain. Beyond that, Walmart has become a significant contributor to macro-economic forecasting. I went through the transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee meetings for the Federal Reserve from 1999-2006, searching for Walmart. The FOMC is the key economic policymaking body in the central bank, making decisions about interest rates based on the discussions among the various officials at the Fed. Walmart was mentioned at every single meeting in 2006, often multiple times. In 2005, the company was mentioned at every meeting but one. In fact, Walmart has been a constant topic of discussion at the FOMC from 2001 onward. Because of its scale and remarkable amount of data, the company actually has more granular data about the economy than most macro-economic forecasters. As Fed Board Governor Randall Kroszner said in a June 2006 meeting, Walmart officials "effectively know what retail sales are before the numbers are reported because their sales are so highly correlated with overall retail sales." Starting in 2001, the FOMC began relying more and more on Walmart in its discussions. In 2002, the company was mentioned in the context of a longshoreman's strike and inflation. In May 2003, the Fed Governors looked to Walmart to see if there was a sales bounce due to the end of the war in Iraq (there wasn't). In June, the FOMC began to gauge the macro-economic impact of inequality using advice from Walmart – Walmart officials "were not optimistic" that Bush's second tax cuts would help sales, because the tax cuts went mostly to wealthy people who didn't shop there. In 2004, Walmart began warning of high energy prices, and that consumers were "liquidity-constrained". The company saw in its sales figures that consumers were increasingly living paycheck to paycheck. In 2005, the company began worrying about a "strange" situation – the consumer was tapped out, but sales were up and Walmart couldn't figure out why. This was a hint of the credit bubble, but the Fed ignored it. The company at this point isn't just a key purveyor of lower labor standards and a globalized and concentrated supply chain, it is a key tell for policymakers. Walmart data was used by the Federal Reserve's FOMC to understand labor markets, inequality, health care costs, supply chains, and inflation. As the global recession began to come into view, one FOMC member noted, "It's certainly disconcerting to hear that one of the largest private institutions in the world – Wal-Mart – is missing its growth targets fairly significantly." It is as if the new maxim had become, what's good for Walmart is good for America. In the 1950s, the so-called "Treaty of Detroit", an agreement between government, business, and labor for ever increasing wages at automakers, set the tone for the next twenty years of political economy. From the 1970s onward, the new social contract was increasingly set, not just by companies like Walmart, but by Walmart itself. As a new social contract, let's call it the "Treaty of Walmart", emerged as a deal cut between the US government, the Chinese government, and global trading corporations, American society began to reflect a race to the bottom. This strike is thus worth watching – if Walmart loses some pricing pressure because of tactics that impact the company's supply chain or ability to sell, we'll be in uncharted territory.
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| Gold and Silver Market morning, October 12, 2012 Posted: 12 Oct 2012 03:00 AM PDT |
| With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss Posted: 12 Oct 2012 02:34 AM PDT  Federal authorities are using taped phone conversations to build criminal cases related to the multibillion-dollar trading loss at JPMorgan Chase, focusing on calls in which employees openly discussed how to value the troubled bets in a favorable way. Investigators are looking into the actions of four people who previously worked for the team based in London responsible for the $6 billion loss, according to officials briefed on the case. The Federal Bureau of Investigation could make some arrests in the next several months, said one person who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the inquiry was ongoing. |
| Thoughts on Borrowing for Non-Productive Purchases Posted: 12 Oct 2012 01:47 AM PDT The historically normal boom-bust model is giving way to its once-in-a-lifetime deformed cousin, the hyperinflationary depression crisis. An overindulgence in government, business, and household debt is driving the Fed to quantitatively ease away the dollar's value. |
| How to Profit from the Imbalance in Platinum and Zinc Inventories: Matthew O'Keefe Posted: 12 Oct 2012 01:00 AM PDT Now is the moment to take a hard look at the state of supply for zinc and platinum, says Matthew O'Keefe of Mackie Research Capital Corporation. In an exclusive interview with The Gold Report,... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter |
| Links for 2012-10-11 [del.icio.us] Posted: 12 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT
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