Gold World News Flash |
- How Helicopter Ben Helps Jobs and, Inadvertently, Gold
- Gold and Silver Will Soon Line Investors' Pockets
- IMF Sees “Alarmingly High” Risk World Is Going Down Sh*tter
- John Williams on Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate
- Chinese Get Materialistic: Set to Become Largest Jewelry Market by 2020
- No Currencies Will Survive What Lies Ahead, But That’s OK
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Stocks and Oil
- Think like a Giant
- Silver Update 10/8/12 New Currency
- New York Sun: Is legal tender next?
- South Africa Shows Europe How Anti-Austerity Protests Are Done
- Gold Pulls Back after False Move but Remains above Pivot
- The Gold Price Closed at $1,773.50 Down $5.10
- IMF's New Growth Paradigm: Kenya And Tanzania
- IMF Cuts Global Growth, Warns Central Banks, Whose Capital Is An "Arbitrary Number", Is Only Game In Town
- Are the Central Bank Vaults Empty?
- PV Panels Hit Demand to Buy Silver
- Is The Dow-Gold Ratio Heading Towards One?
- Will Gold Top $1,800 This Week? Here Are 4 Reasons Why It Could
- What the Québécois Mean for Québec's Miners
- What the Québécois Mean for Québec's Miners
- The Rothschild-Johnson Matthey Connection
- Gold Investing Mania: When, Not If
- I wonder how many lives I've saved by recommending that people in Iran load up on Gold over these past 5 years
- Silver and Margin Requirements Redux
- Silver Prices, Priceless Rumors
- Stocks Lose Half Of Last Week's Gains With AAPL Back Under $600 Billion Market Cap
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pullback on a Light Volume Day
- Gold Market Update - Oct 08, 2012
- Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate
| How Helicopter Ben Helps Jobs and, Inadvertently, Gold Posted: 09 Oct 2012 08:30 AM PDT The world's central bank leaders continue to spike the monetary punch bowl, with investors imbibing on gold once again. This flurry of gold buying prompts many curious investors and doubting media to ask me two questions: 1) How can demand for gold and gold stocks continue; and 2) How high can the precious metal go?
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| Gold and Silver Will Soon Line Investors' Pockets Posted: 09 Oct 2012 08:05 AM PDT Even though the mining equity markets have been choppy and mostly sideways this year, Jordan Roy-Byrne, editor of The Daily Gold Premium newsletter, has managed to produce some enviable returns in his model portfolio. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he tells us why he's now turning his attention to silver, which he expects will provide some exciting returns for producers and investors. He talks about how companies with cash and cash flow will be able to scoop up some great property deals from less-fortunate juniors.
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| IMF Sees “Alarmingly High” Risk World Is Going Down Sh*tter Posted: 08 Oct 2012 11:30 PM PDT from Silver Vigilante:
Monetary policy should remain soft, says the IMF, according to Bloomberg. The ECB has "ample justification for keeping policy rates very low or cutting them further," the IMF said. In other words, they gotta keep this thing afloat until the EU is the sort of superstate wet-dreamed about in Orwell's 1984. Cultural homogenization, the whole nine yards, begins with the making of economic society.
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| John Williams on Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate Posted: 08 Oct 2012 10:33 PM PDT from The Gold Report:
John Williams: I normally put out a commentary on the numbers, and, in this one, I raised the possibility of politics as a factor. The problem is very serious misreporting of the numbers and the result is what appears to be a bogus unemployment rate. The BLS reported a drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8%, three-tenths of a percentage point, which runs counter to what is being experienced in the marketplace.
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| Chinese Get Materialistic: Set to Become Largest Jewelry Market by 2020 Posted: 08 Oct 2012 10:30 PM PDT from Bullion Street:
The Association said although per capita jewelry purchase in China is far behind that in developed countries, the growing purchasing power of Chinese consumers will provide the fundamentals for rapid market growth. Sales of jewelry in China reached 40 billion yuan ($6.33 billion) in 2011, an increase of 33 percent year-on-year. Industry insiders believe that jewelry sales in the country will sustain this brisk pace of growth over the next decade, and jewelry will become the most sought-after possession after real estate and automobiles for China's growing middle class. They said many Chinese, particularly women, are wearing jewelry to look prettier or to flaunt their possessions.
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| No Currencies Will Survive What Lies Ahead, But That’s OK Posted: 08 Oct 2012 10:02 PM PDT  Today 40 year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson, wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News. Fitzwilson, who is founder of The Portola Group, warned about a chaotic future where, "Along the way, various currencies will become the safe haven of the day, but none will survive what lies ahead." He also cautioned, "No amount of printing or economic growth can prevent our destiny of currency destruction and entitlement collapse."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall With Stocks and Oil Posted: 08 Oct 2012 10:00 PM PDT Gold fell $14.30 to $1766.60 in Asia, but it then climbed back higher throughout most of trade in New York and ended with a loss of just 0.35%. Silver slipped to as low as $33.776 before it also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 1.45%.
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| Posted: 08 Oct 2012 09:04 PM PDT Footstep of a Giant - Photo of Fraser Island dunes in Australia. By Yann Arthus-Bertrand from his book Earth from Above. In his interview, Aquilus talked about our recent email exchange and how he had encouraged me to turn it into a post. So, with his permission, here it is. There are three sections: 1. Think like a Giant 2. It is gold that denominates currency 3. QE3 Think like a Giant
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| Silver Update 10/8/12 New Currency Posted: 08 Oct 2012 08:32 PM PDT |
| New York Sun: Is legal tender next? Posted: 08 Oct 2012 07:44 PM PDT 9:40p ET Monday, October 8, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Noting a federal appeals court decision holding that denying cost-of-living raises to federal judges is unconstitutional, the New York Sun today asks: What about the rest of us? How come it's OK to debase our money? The Sun writes: "The idea that a dollar could be worth a different number of grains of silver or gold at the end of a contract than it meant at the beginning of a contract would have horrified George Washington and nearly all of the other Founders. (Benjamin Franklin, a printer, had a vested interest in paper money.) So would the idea that the dollar would be permitted to decline over a decade to but a sixth of the number of grains of gold at which it was valued at the start of a decade. That is what has just happened in America. ... "The legal tender question is the elephant in the courtroom, so to speak. If a dollar can't be diminished for judges -- that is, if the legal tender laws are not good enough for judges -- why should they be good enough for the rest of us? If they are not good enough for the contract between the government and judges, why should they be good enough for contracts between private parties?" The Sun's editorial is headlined "Is Legal Tender Next?" and it's posted here: http://www.nysun.com/editorials/is-legal-tender-next/88019/ CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/. Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard
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| South Africa Shows Europe How Anti-Austerity Protests Are Done Posted: 08 Oct 2012 07:33 PM PDT While we have grown 'used' to hearing of protests in several European peripheral nations, South Africa has turned the anti-austerity protest amplifier to 11 in recent days. From the Lonmin massacre and subsequent wage increase to the truck-drivers' strike and Amplats firing of 12,000 workers , Reuters is reporting that South Africa's local government worker's union has now said it will join a nationwide strike amid the labor unrest in the mining sector. Demanding 'market-related salaries' this strike would bring the South African economy to its knees - at a time of rising deficit concerns. Critically, this has dramatic repercussions. Since firing people is no longer an option as "Those who are dismissed will make sure that there will be no operations operating and that will cause a massacre just like at Marikana," some companies will be forced out of business (reducing supply) or suffer significant margin compression on cost increases leaving commodity producers struggling - which will inevitably mean prices for end-users will rise (slowing end-user demand or crushing their margins). It seems the South African labor unions found the M.A.D. card.
Via Reuters South Africa,
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| Gold Pulls Back after False Move but Remains above Pivot Posted: 08 Oct 2012 07:15 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com October 08, 2012 02:20 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT No change: “A previously rare occurrence has popped up 3 times since June. That is, gold has traded in a double inside day AFTER an outside day. Before June, one had to look back to 2009 to find this pattern. The pattern is a function of volatility contraction and the plethora of orders on each side of the narrow range is conducive to false breaks. One can envision a spike to a new high (above 1790.55 and maybe 1802.80) following Fed minutes tomorrow before gold reverses and declines sharply.” Gold rallied to a new and has pulled back in order to satisfy the ‘false break’. Still, 1763.25 defines the trend (above is bullish and below is bearish). LEVELS: 1736.05 1750.90 1763.25 1791.49 1802.80 1819.05...
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| The Gold Price Closed at $1,773.50 Down $5.10 Posted: 08 Oct 2012 04:50 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1773.50 Change : -5.10 or -0.29% Silver Price Close Today : 34.02 Change : -0.55 or -1.61% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.14 Change : 0.69 or 1.34% Franklin Sanders didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. 
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| IMF's New Growth Paradigm: Kenya And Tanzania Posted: 08 Oct 2012 04:44 PM PDT For those who still wonder why China has given up on Europe, and is solely focusing on Africa (where none other than Goldman Sachs is opening more offices than any other bank), the IMF explains why the Berlin Beijing Conference 2.0 is now in its peak, if entirely behind the scenes. And yes, the "developed" world wishes it was one big banana republic. Amazing what not having 100%+ debt/GDP will do for one's economic prospects...
From the IMF WEO: Resilient Growth in Low-Income Countries: Kenya and Tanzania
A decade of improved macroeconomic stability has helped underpin this resilience. In Tanzania, reforms since the late 1990s liberalized foreign exchange and financial markets and foreign trade, and diminished the role of parastatals. Inflation fell from 20 to 30 percent in the 1990s to 5 percent in the mid-2000s, fiscal revenues increased from 10 to 15 percent of GDP, and gross reserve cover broadly doubled. With the help of the IMF's Heavily Indebted Poor Country/Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, the debt burden was also halved in relation to GDP. In Kenya, reforms started earlier, with a major program to liberalize price controls, import licensing, and exchange restrictions, as well as steps to privatize parastatals and reduce civil service numbers. As a result of prudent fiscal policy, Kenya's public debt fell from 54 percent of GDP in 2001 to 38 percent in 2008. Macroeconomic stability and market-friendly policies helped provide a durable growth impetus. As in much of Africa, growth in Kenya and Tanzania has been driven by strong domestic markets, led by a growing middle class. For both countries, an improved investment outlook contributed to a sustained expansion in private sector construction spending. At the same time, the adoption of new technologies has contributed to rapid growth in communications and finance. This engine of growth helped shield both economies from the global downturn, with spending on construction, communications, and finance continuing to grow at a 9 to 10 percent real rate throughout the Great Recession. Strengthened macroeconomic buffers also provided space for a countercyclical policy response to the global downturn. With modest fiscal deficits and sustainable levels of public debt, both countries allowed government spending to rise between 2006/07 and 2008/09—by 4½ percentage points of GDP in Tanzania and by 2 percentage points in Kenya. This fiscal stimulus helped offset growth spillovers from a less favorable external environment. Monetary policy was also supportive. Tanzania halved its short-term interest rates between 2007 and 2009. And in Kenya, a recent IMF study shows that supportive monetary conditions were successful in offsetting most of the contractionary impact of the Great Recession, which would otherwise have resulted in output falling well below its potential (Figure 4.3.1, panel 2). Under floating exchange rate regimes, both currencies appreciated in real terms against the dollar through 2009, though this did not offset the overall impact of fiscal and monetary easing. Both countries saw quick, albeit temporary, deterioration in their overall balance of payments in 2008, but weathered it readily using their healthy gross reserve buffer (of about four months of imports) and by resorting to new IMF financing. Diversification of production and export activity may also have helped their resilience. At the product level, Kenya has increased its exports of intermediate nonmanufactured goods while diversifying its tourism market. In Tanzania, a significant decline in traditional agricultural exports was offset by growth in exports of minerals and manufactured goods. At the market level, Kenya's trade with other emerging market and developing economies has remained broadly stable at slightly more than half of total exports; in Tanzania, sales to these economies doubled to represent two-thirds of exports, helping the country decouple from the advanced economy growth cycle (Figure 4.3.1, panel 3). Both countries are projected to sustain a robust pace of growth through 2012. The rate of expansion is likely to remain somewhat below the peak rates seen during 2006–07 given steps to gradually reverse the 2008–09 fiscal stimulus and because of the monetary tightening adopted since mid-2011 to bring down food-price-related inflation. Credit growth has decelerated in both countries but remains sufficient to support steady growth. More generally, unlike in some other emerging market and developing economies, growth has been supported by direct investment and capital repatriation, which are less likely to experience sudden stops, and the financial sector remains robust, with low levels of nonperforming loans. The resilience of Kenya and Tanzania could be tested, however, in the event of an intensified downturn in the global economy. Sustained growth in exports has supported their external performance so far, but a new global downturn, including emerging market and developing economies, would bring new balance of payments pressures. Both countries also have more constrained policy space than at the start of the Great Recession, with higher fiscal deficits and debt levels, higher inflation, and somewhat lower gross reserve cover. Accordingly, both countries are rebuilding macroeconomic buffers under programs supported by the IMF: Kenya's economic program has been supported by a three-year Extended Credit Facility since 2011, and Tanzania recently accessed an 18-month precautionary Standby Credit Facility to complement its preexisting Policy Support Instrument arrangement.
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| Posted: 08 Oct 2012 04:05 PM PDT "The recovery continues but it has weakened" is how the IMF sums up their 250-page compendium of rather sullen reading for most hope-and-dreamers. The esteemed establishment led by the tall, dark, and handsome know-nothing Lagarde (as evidenced by her stroppiness after being asked a question she didn't like in the Eurogroup PR) has cut global growth expectations for advanced economics from 2.0% to only 1.5%. Quite sadly, they see two forces pulling growth down in advanced economies: fiscal consolidation and a still-weak financial system; and only one main force pulling growth up is accommodative monetary policy. Central banks continue not only to maintain very low policy rates, but also to experiment with programs aimed at decreasing rates in particular markets, at helping particular categories of borrowers, or at helping financial intermediation in general. A general feeling of uncertainty weighs on global sentiment. Of note: the IMF finds that "Risks for a Serious Global Slowdown Are Alarmingly High...The probability of global growth falling below 2 percent in 2013––which would be consistent with recession in advanced economies and a serious slowdown in emerging market and developing economies––has risen to about 17 percent, up from about 4 percent in April 2012 and 10 percent (for the one-year-ahead forecast) during the very uncertain setting of the September 2011 WEO. For 2013, the GPM estimates suggest that recession probabilities are about 15 percent in the United States, above 25 percent in Japan, and above 80 percent in the euro area." And yet probably the most defining line of the entire report (that we have found so far) is the following: "Central bank capital is, in many ways, an arbitrary number." And there you have it, straight from the IMF. The full details are below. Summing it up (via Reuters):
The keyword is momentum. Or rather lack thereof:
IMF isn't happy about Europe:
.. or the US:
Could have fooled the BLS and the brand spanking news "7.8% unemployment rate." The IMF concludes there is little to worry about as a result of global QEternity, an observation that certainly explains the following statement: "Central bank capital is, in many ways, an arbitrary number." ... right.
And some absolute profundity:
In other words, according to the IMF's brain trust, soaring debt, and exploding interest rates may lead to default. And that is why they get paid the big SDRs. To summarize:
Summary revised (lack of growth) table:
Full report here
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| Are the Central Bank Vaults Empty? Posted: 08 Oct 2012 03:04 PM PDT 08-Oct (GoldSeek) — Is it possible that the vaults of the world's central banks, believed to be stacked with gold bullion, are really empty? Is all the gold actually there? Something about the numbers doesn't seem to add up. The importance of the question accelerates in the face of global money-printing, which is also accelerating. Since the start of the economic meltdown five years ago, the balance sheets of the world's central banks have been growing at a frantic pace. The U.K. has led the pack, up 362%, followed by the United States, which is up 223% – even before QE III. China is printing money as well, up 151% during the period, the European Central Bank, 146%, and Japan, 83%. But take heart, because while the currencies of all those countries are absolutely, 100% fiat – redeemable in nothing but more of the same paper – the world's central banks are said to have huge reserves of gold bullion. The U.S., U.K., the euro zone, Switzerland, Japan and the International Monetary Fund report having gold reserves of 23,349 tons among them. …At this point, Eric Sprott, of the estimable Sprott Asset Management, enters the discussion, asking some inconvenient questions. Because something about the gold numbers – supply and demand – doesn't seem to add up. [source]
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| PV Panels Hit Demand to Buy Silver Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:57 PM PDT |
| Is The Dow-Gold Ratio Heading Towards One? Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:54 PM PDT 08-Oct (SeekingAlpha) — In an environment of ultra expansionary monetary policies, asset classes might trend higher in nominal terms and trend lower in real terms. I had discussed the quantum of new money creation in my earlier article on justifying the price of gold from a money creation perspective. In this article, I will use the same honest currency to discuss the silent crash of equity markets. The word crash might be an understatement here, as the equity markets in the United States have slumped by 80% since the year 2000 in gold terms. Many investors will argue that in the period 1980-2000, equity markets trended higher in gold terms. The objective of this article is not to prove that gold is a superior investment and equities are an inferior investment. I just want to stress on the fact that all asset classes might underperform compared to hard assets (honest currencies) in a prolonged environment of expansionary monetary policies. …In January 2000, investors needed nearly 39 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow Jones Index (DIA). Currently, investors just need 7.6 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow Jones Index. This is what I call the silent crash in equity markets. In gold terms, the Dow Jones Index is already down by 80% in the last ten years. …I would personally consider investing in physical gold. [source]
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| Will Gold Top $1,800 This Week? Here Are 4 Reasons Why It Could Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:50 PM PDT Gold flirted with an 11-month high early Friday, only to retreat after a strikingly positive jobs report. With gold up over 12% over the past three months, investor focus is returning to the shiny metal. Below are four reasons gold could break through the psychological $1800/oz. barrier this week. Words: 347 So says Plan B Economics ([url]www.planbeconomics.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from the original post* on Seeking Alpha entitled 4 Reasons Gold May Break Through $1800 Next Week. [INDENT] Lorimer Wilson, editor of [B][COLOR=#0000ff]www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor's Note at the bottom of the page.[/COLOR] This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.[/B] [/INDENT] The post goes on to say, in part: 1. Trader bullishness is rising: [LIST] [*]According to an Octobe...
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| What the Québécois Mean for Québec's Miners Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:44 PM PDT |
| What the Québécois Mean for Québec's Miners Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:44 PM PDT |
| The Rothschild-Johnson Matthey Connection Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:41 PM PDT Silver Vigilante Uncovering Some Dirt The often anti-establishment buyers of Johnson Matthey products might be surprised when they learn that, for more than one hundred years from the 1850s until the 1960s, the London gold and silver markets were rigged … Continue reading
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| Gold Investing Mania: When, Not If Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:38 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:34 PM PDT Iran Low on Options as Hyperinflation Concerns Spark Gold Dash
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| Silver and Margin Requirements Redux Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:21 PM PDT Wary silver investors may be wise to watch out for a pre-election margin hike. Especially if silver's price gets too frothy or starts dragging the price of gold up along with it, since such events could signal the reemergence of unpopular inflationary pressures. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME is a self-regulated, for profit organization that sets its own margin requirements. The CME's maintenance margins for silver futures contracts are still at relatively levels compared with other markets, despite the precious metal's recent consolidative trading patterns seen prior to the Fed's announcement of its latest QEIII package. Lower margin requirements used to attract greater speculative trading activity since it is cheaper to establish a given futures position in terms of the capital required to be placed on deposit as margin. Due to its per-contract commission structure, the CME profits more from increased trade volume. This explains why it promotes HFT or...
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| Silver Prices, Priceless Rumors Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:20 PM PDT Strange rumors have been cropping up in the silver market lately — all seemingly designed to quell relatively buoyant market sentiment. One example was the recent CFTC story printed on the Financial Time's front page citing a source predicting that the silver market manipulation case will soon be dropped. Another case was the recent trader revelation about the bullion banks being long physical precious metals and short futures contracts, although this has since been substantially debunked by none other than the well-known silver market manipulation whistle blower Andrew Maguire. Basically, concentration is the issue, not hedging - as silver analyst Ted Butler has been pointing out since the 1990's. Essentially, it is the presence of just a few large players who make up the short holdings that are positioned against a much more diverse group of longs that is the primary issue. This situation is acceptable in the same way that it was apparently acceptable for Ponzi s...
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| Stocks Lose Half Of Last Week's Gains With AAPL Back Under $600 Billion Market Cap Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:17 PM PDT With bond-traders amiss - no doubt all celebrating the indigenous people of our great nation - volumes were dismal and so was any evidence of a BTFD mentality in risk. AAPL, amid the biggest three-day slide in almost six-months, saw pullbacks to VWAP sold immediately (signaling more institutional biased selling) ending very close to a 10% correction from its highs. This weighed on Tech (obviously) which was the worst performing sector and dragged Nasdaq (and the S&P) lower. In general equities stayed in sync with risk-assets on the day (we note that TLT's move implies around a 4-5bps compression in yields at the long-end of the Treasury curve) though the lack of liquidity made the relationships noisy. Low volumes, low range, a premature ramp in the last hour that gathered no momentum left S&P futures having retraced 50% of their low-to-high swing of last week. Gold and Oil decoupled early then recoupled late, ending the day down but outperforming the implied weakness from USD strength (EUR weakness balanced JPY and AUD strength on the day). Copper and Silver ended the day down 1.4%. VIX 'outperformed' equity weakness and pushed a notable 0.8 vols higher back over 15%.
S&P futures have retraced half of the linear up-trend gains from last week now - though today's volume provides little confirmation... ES volume around 40% below average...
FX markets were relatively dispersed today with Cable (GBPUSD) weakest (along with the EUR) while AUD and JPY outperformed... USD ended 0.37% stronger...
The dispersion in FX was also evident in the last few days volatility in FX carry pairs relative to stocks (where it seems the FX markets have been the lever - because AAPL is broken - to move stocks higher)...EURJPY vs ES...
Oil was partnered with Gold early, flip-flopped down to play with Silver for much of the European day, then recovered to play with Gold for the rest of the day... Oil and Gold ended the day down 0.25% (still better than USD-implied weakness)...
With Treasuries closed, TLT suggested 10Y yields fell around 4-5bps...
across asset-classes (that were open), risk was generally highly correlated - though the 'jigglyness' (which is a technical term only a PhD could comprehend) was rather notable - as we suspect the algos were dominating and notable to find a trend to grab on to... Confirming the algo-based view of today is the fact that average trade size was its lowest in almost five months...
AAPL is struggling (as we noted earlier) - but notably intraday - we are seeing something we haven't really seen in the last few months... VWAP being faded (i.e. institutional sell orders...) amid the biggest three-day drop in almost six-months.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: The 'Gundlach' Trade is handsomely back in the money - with NatGas up 19.6% while AAPl is only up 9.3% since inception...
Bonus Bonus Chart: Many have noted the rally in the Dow Transports - and used it as evidence that all is well and those silly-billy Dow Theorists had it all wrong all along. However, two things are noteworthy: 1) The Dow Transports remains massively underperforming... and non-confirmatory... and we have seen this pattern before - earlier in the year..
2) The recent rally looks more like a pairs trade to us! Since QEternity, The Dow Transports and Russell 2000 have diverged notably and then converged today! We suspect this means an end to the 'technical' buying pressure for the Trannies...
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pullback on a Light Volume Day Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:08 PM PDT |
| Gold Market Update - Oct 08, 2012 Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:03 PM PDT Clive Maund It has been widely assumed across the markets that the forces of deflation have been vanquished by the Fed’s making it plain a couple of weeks ago that it is going to throw all of its firepower into the battle to defeat it. So let’s make this as clear as possible – the forces of deflation will not be defeated by anything until they done their work of expunging the massive overhang of debt from the system. The Fed’s latest stated policy is merely a display of desperation and a symptom of intellectual bankruptcy in that they seem to think that more of what created the problems in the first place is now going to somehow fix them. We are going into a depression anyway, and they have made it plain that for good measure they are going to destroy the currency into the bargain. In reality, all they are trying to do is buy as much time as possible – they know they are cornered and that the system is doomed and procrastination is all that i...
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| Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate Posted: 08 Oct 2012 02:00 PM PDT Shadowstats.com Author John Williams wonders if politics are at play behind the latest jobs report, which shows 114,000 new U.S. jobs since September and a 0.3% drop in unemployment since August. Investors need to know how seasonal factors and month-to-month volatility affect the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reports. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Williams explains why he doubts that we are in a recovery. The take-away? Look at the unadjusted figures before you sell your gold.
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According to the IMF, the world economy will grow just 3.3 percent this year, the slowest growth rate since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year. This just one week after the IMF published reports that we were on the edge of another 
The Gold Report: John, as Mark Twain famously quipped, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just came out with new jobs numbers that show the country added 114,000 jobs since September and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, down from 8.1% in August. On Shadowstats.com, you argue that the numbers are wrong and pointed to politics as a possible reason for the incorrect figures. Are unemployment statistics being manipulated and if so how?
China is all set to become world's largest consumer market for jewelry by 2020, according to Gems&Jewelry Trade Association of China.
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