saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- OIL STILL IN THE DRIVERS SEAT
- MORE Fake gold hits NYC
- Which Is The Best Gold Company?
- Gold To Extend Rally In 2013 On Unsterilized Treasury Purchases
- Priceline.com Breaks Out As Its Post-Earnings Recovery Continues
- Barrick: Buy Before It Soars On Attractive Valuation
- FX Outlook And Positioning: Getting Tired ?
- Southern Copper: A Good Buy In Copper Recovery
- T&S: Gold & Silver Technical Analysis Update
- Blazer Metals Report: Trillions into Gold & Silver
- Silver Mining Costs Explained
- Precious Metals Benefit From a Shift in Currencies
- Silver: $400 Per Ounce
- Cartel Dumped 2x Annual US Silver Production on Market in 15 Min
- Bart Chilton: Silver Market Investigation Statement Coming Soon
- Karmageddon
- By 2015 Hard Commodity Prices Will Collapse; Australias Mining Boom Dies
| Posted: 23 Sep 2012 10:15 AM PDT We will continue to watch the oil cycle next week as it is driving all other asset markets. As I pointed out in my last article, the rally in stocks, commodities, and gold are on hold until the oil cycle bottoms. Oil did form a swing low on Friday, but I think there is probably one more leg down before the cycle forms a final intermediate bottom. If oil does have another leg down next week, that has the potential to cause the stock market to break lower out of the volatility coil that it has formed. As most of you probably remember the initial break out of a volatility coil ends up being a false move about 70% of the time. The initial break is soon followed by a more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. In this case, a move down would form a stretched daily cycle low, which would be followed by, presumably, another move to new highs next month, and on into the election. A further decline in oil would probably mean more upside for the bear flag forming on the dollar index, and presumably the dip down into a daily cycle low for gold that I noted in my prior post (although I wouldn't rule out one more attempt to tag the $1800 resistance level on Monday or Tuesday first).  Note that the above charts are only intended to illustrate trajectory not actual targets.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 23 Sep 2012 09:18 AM PDT No problem, I'm sure "The Feds" will get to the bottom of it.   Fake gold hits NYC Diamond District finds 10 tungsten-filled bars
Federal agents are investigating the peddling of bogus gold bars in Midtown. The Post has learned as many as 10 fake gold bars — made up mostly of relatively worthless tungsten — were sold recently to unsuspecting dealers in Manhattan's Midtown Diamond District. The price of gold has risen more than 600 percent since January 2000, while the S&P 500 index is down 0.6 percent over the same period. The 10-oz. gold bars are hugely popular with Main Street investors, and it is not known how many of the fake gold bars were sold to dealers — or if any fake bars were purchased by the public. Gold refiner Ibrahim Fadl claims he was sold four bogus bars, which were covered with a thin layer of gold, and filled with a tungsten slug. One gold dealer discovered that four of the 3-inch-by-1-inch gold bars he bought — worth about $72,000 retail — were counterfeit. "It has the entire street on edge," said Ibrahim Fadl, 62, who has been the owner of Express Metal Refining, a Midtown gold-refinery business, for the last 11 years. "I and the others on the street work off of trust; now that trust is strained." Fadl, a Columbia University graduate with a master's degree in chemical engineering, and who has more than 40 years in the industry, purchased the four fake bars from a well-known Russian salesman with whom he has done business. A second 47th Street refiner, who wished to remain anonymous, said he was burned recently when he bought six gold bars that turned out to be mostly tungsten, with just a gold veneer. He would not comment, though, on who sold him the bogus bars. Fadl became suspicious when he offered the salesman a deep discount for the investment-grade gold bars and he quickly accepted it, a source tells The Post. Fadl said he did his due diligence "by X-raying the bars to ascertain the purity of the gold and weighing the bars, and the Swiss markings were perfect." Tungsten is an industrial metal that weighs nearly the same as gold but costs a little over $1 an ounce. Gold closed Friday at $1,774.80 an ounce. To quell his suspicion, Fadl then drilled into the bar and discovered the tungsten — whose silver color is distinctive from gold's bright yellow hue. Raymond Nassim, CEO of Manfra, Tordell & Brookes, the American arm of the Swiss firm that created the original gold bars — with their serial number and purity rating stamped clearly into them — said he reported the situation to the US Secret Service, whose jurisdiction covers the counterfeiting of gold bars. He said his company "is supporting and cooperating with authorities any way we can." Nassim thought the culprit must be a professionally trained jeweler to have pulled off the caper. "The forger had to slice the original bar along the side, hollow out the gold and insert the tungsten ingot, and then reseal and polish the bar, Nassim said. At an industry dinner Thursday night hosted by Comex, the New York-based metals exchange, the room was abuzz with talk about the bogus gold bars, according to Fadl. Numerous calls to the Secret Service were not returned. |
| Which Is The Best Gold Company? Posted: 23 Sep 2012 05:42 AM PDT By Arie Goren: In my previous post here, I recommended buying gold, and in another post here I compared the different ways to invest in gold: futures contract, ETFs and shares of gold mining companies. But what about buying shares of gold companies, which one would give a better return? Since the sell price of the product of these companies, gold, is practically the same, comparing the cash cost of gold production for each company should give us an idea about their prospects. Other fundamental parameters like the price to earnings, dividend yield and so on, should obviously be taken into account as well. First let us compare the Total Cash Costs of producing gold for the 12 most important gold miners whose stocks trade on the US markets: New Gold (NGD), Yamana Gold (AUY), Barrick Gold (ABX), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), IAMGold (IAG), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Kinross Complete Story » |
| Gold To Extend Rally In 2013 On Unsterilized Treasury Purchases Posted: 23 Sep 2012 05:19 AM PDT By Colin Lokey: Not surprisingly, the global debasing of fiat currencies has brought out the gold bulls. The shiny yellow metal is a classic inflation hedge, a de facto long put option on equities and perhaps best of all in the post-Lehman world, an asset with no counterparty risk. As one round of QE ends and another iteration begins the strategists and 'pros' are out in force with long gold calls. Some traders have taken note of the aptly named "golden cross" chart pattern in spot gold -- last Thursday the 50-day moving average rose above the 200-day moving average indicating long term strength. According to Reuters, gold prices rose 11% following the formation of the last golden cross. Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Francisco Blanch recently told clients he expects gold prices to top $2,400 within two years, citing upward pressure exerted by the Fed's new asset purchase program. Similarly, Michael Complete Story » |
| Priceline.com Breaks Out As Its Post-Earnings Recovery Continues Posted: 23 Sep 2012 05:15 AM PDT By Dr. Duru: Over a month ago I wrote that Priceline.com was not likely to recover its post-earnings losses in the near-term. Based on the bearish commentary on its European business and reminders about slowing growth rates, I figured Priceline.com (PCLN) at best would rally to $600 and stop there after hitting resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA). Instead, PCLN has steadily pressed forward and is now in a breakout position only 6% away from closing the post-earnings gap down. click to enlarge images Priceline.com breaks out as the post-earnings recovery continues Source: FreeStockCharts.com It is also interesting to note that PCLN held support at 2012′s breakout point that ended a year-long trading range. Holding this support makes PCLN's current run more sustainable. Also interesting is that PCLN's post-earnings recovery has closely followed the recent recovery in the euro versus the U.S. dollar (FXE). I can only assume that the market's increasing Complete Story » |
| Barrick: Buy Before It Soars On Attractive Valuation Posted: 23 Sep 2012 04:44 AM PDT By Cris Frangold: Barrick Gold (ABX), the world's largest gold miner (as measured by production), currently ranks the highest in terms of reserves for gold and copper, with around 139 million ounces of gold and 12.7 billion pounds of copper. When compared to its nearest competitors such as Goldcorp (GG), with 24.62 million ounces of gold and about 3 billion pounds of copper, and Newmont Mining (NEM), with around 28 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper as on 31st December 2011, it should be easy to imagine why I'm recommending this stock today. Barrick Gold recently declared that they have achieved first production at the Pueblo Viejo mine located in the Dominican Republic. I understand that this mine is one of those rare mines which is expected to yield more than 1 billion ounces of gold per year at a total cash cost of $400 to $500 per ounce. Complete Story » |
| FX Outlook And Positioning: Getting Tired ? Posted: 23 Sep 2012 04:37 AM PDT By Marc Chandler: The days ahead will help clarify whether the U.S. dollar's somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature,before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the euro. The key may not lie with the economic data. The important steps announced by the ECB, Federal Reserve, and BOJ has stolen the thunder from the near-term economic performances. Instead, we suspect politics and positioning may be more important. As we have noted, the signals coming from European officials indicate that there has been an important climb down from pushing Greece out of the monetary union and the indications from intrade.com, where the odds a country leaving the eurozone this year has fallen to the lowest in at least two years, suggest investors recognize this. Exactly how the proverbial circle can Complete Story » |
| Southern Copper: A Good Buy In Copper Recovery Posted: 23 Sep 2012 03:40 AM PDT By Osman Gulseven: Edited By Marianna Avilkina Southern Copper (SCCO) is one of the largest copper producers in the world. Operating in southern Peru and northern Mexico, this mining company extracts, transforms and commercializes a wide range of basic materials. The core products are copper, molybdenum, zinc, lead, gold and silver. Currently, 80% of SCCO's outstanding shares are owned by a Mexican conglomerate, 'Grupo Mexico.', Southern Copper was ranked the world's largest copper miner in 2011. The stock performed well in the last 12 months, returning almost 40%. As of September 22, 2012, SCCO stock was trading at around $34, with a 52-week range of $22.34 - $36.92. It has a market cap of about $28 billion. The trailing twelve-month P/E ratio is 12.1, whereas the forward P/E ratio is 14. P/B, P/S, and P/CF ratios stand at 6.2, 4.1, and 11.5, respectively. The operating margin is 54% while the net profit margin Complete Story » |
| T&S: Gold & Silver Technical Analysis Update Posted: 22 Sep 2012 05:52 PM PDT An update and short term prediction on the precious metals with an Elliott Wave invalid point ot watch in gold. from mrthriveandsurvive: ~TVR |
| Blazer Metals Report: Trillions into Gold & Silver Posted: 22 Sep 2012 05:51 PM PDT Could there be trillions of dollars moving out of the $100Trillion+ bond & debt paper markets into gold and silver? What effect will that have on the price? ~TVR |
| Posted: 22 Sep 2012 05:31 PM PDT BrotherJohnF presents Silver Mining Costs Explained from Office Series 18. ~TVR |
| Precious Metals Benefit From a Shift in Currencies Posted: 22 Sep 2012 03:15 PM PDT
We recall with some nostalgia that it was last year on September 6, that gold hit an all-time high of $1,923. This of course reminds us that a month before that the credit agency Standard & Poor's stripped the United States of its AAA rating on its bonds after partisan wrangling over raising the government's debt limit led the nation to the brink of default. And now in addition to nostalgia we get a feeling of déjà vu. The U.S. recently received another warning of a credit downgrade, this time from Moody's Investors Service. The credit agency said last Tuesday that it would most likely cut its Aaa rating on United States government debt, probably by one notch, if Washington's budget negotiations failed. This does not bode well for the U.S. dollar in the long run. Let's move to the situation in Europe. When George Soros speaks people usually listen. Soros is a strong supporter of European integration but a longtime critic of Germany's eurozone crisis management. In his usual forthright manner, Soros recently said in a speech that Europe's recession will intensify and spread to Germany within six months. "The policy of fiscal retrenchment in the midst of rising unemployment is pro-cyclical and pushing Europe into a deeper and longer depression," Soros said. "That is no longer a forecast; it is an observation. The German public doesn't yet feel it and doesn't quite believe it. But it is all too real in the periphery and it will reach Germany in the next six months or so." Soros said Germany needs to abandon its demands for austerity in other countries and embrace the continued fiscal unification of the region or leave the euro zone itself. (Recently, German politicians, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, have begun signaling greater comfort with monetary debasement.) Soros also said it would be preferable for Germany to stay in the euro zone and work to boost growth, activate a debt-reduction fund and guarantee common bonds. All in all, it seems that both: US and EU are going to debase their currencies, each in hope of gaining a competitive advantage in exports and devaluing its own debt. Who will win this race? Whether it will be the US or EU that will manage to "solve" more problems by printing money, we know that clear winners in the long run will be gold and silver investors and charts appear to confirm that (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) Let's take a look at the long-term USD Index chart. We focus on this chart to analyze the USD Index because last week's moves have long term and medium term significance. The major breakout was invalidated last week and the move below the key resistance level is being verified right now. Breakout's invalidation was truly a very unlikely development. Just by the term itself, breakouts normally hold and are generally not invalidated. The previously broken resistance line normally becomes a support line. With the breakout being invalidated last and this week, a true sign of weakness in the USD Index is clearly seen and points to a bearish outlook for the months ahead. As you will see in the following part of this essay, it has profound bullish implications for the precious metals market. Meanwhile, let's take a look at the European currency. In the long-term Euro Index chart we have quite the opposite situation as compared to the dollar. Now it's not that the euro is showing strength, but rather the dollar has simply lost much of its appeal relative to the euro and this makes the euro look strong. The breakout above the key resistance line in the euro was a major bullish factor and the size of the move that followed after the breakout has already verified it. The picture is clearly bullish. To see how this shift in currencies could impact precious metals in the following weeks, let's have a look at our Correlation Matrix, intended to gauge the intermarket correlations. The developments in the markets last week have bearish implications for the USD Index and have created a bullish outlook not only for metals, but also for stocks. This combination has resulted in a rosy picture for the precious metals. The classic mode is in place in this week's correlations as the miners have moved with stocks and in the opposite direction of the dollar. The previously discussed Fed's announcement of the endless QE3 along with a promise to keep interests rates at or near zero through the middle of 2015, helped to keep these correlations intact. The outlook for the precious metals – based on USD Index and stocks – is bullish for the medium term. Summing up, the medium-term picture for the Euro Index is now bullish, and the opposite is the case for the USD Index. Taking into account the correlations between the USD and precious metals, the medium-term outlook for the latter is clearly bullish. Please keep in mind that what's very likely to happen in the medium term, is not always what's the most likely outcome in the short run. In this case, we believe that a short-term correction will be seen in a few days (perhaps when gold moves to its February highs, and that the uptrend will resume thereafter. Simply put, no market can move straight up even if fundamentals are so positive as it is the case with gold and silver. At this time it seems that the metals have risen too far too fast and that they need to take a breather. In other news, we have just launched the long-awaited, new version of our website. We invite and encourate you to visit it at www.SunshineProfits.com Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA * * * * * Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio? Sunshine Profits provides professional support for Gold & Silver Investors and Traders. Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits' Premium Service gain access to Gold Charts, Gold Investment Tools and Analysis of Gold & Silver Prices Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations. All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Posted: 22 Sep 2012 01:26 PM PDT James Turk, Founder of GoldMoney calls SGT from Spain to explain how the FED's latest actions spell doom for the Dollar. James reminds us that what is happening in the United States RIGHT NOW thanks to the privately owned Central Bank always ends the same way: In disaster for the currency. We've seen it before: Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Serbia… and we'll soon see it in AmeriKa. from sgtbull07: Part 2: WARNING: Currency Cliff Ahead = $400 Silver, $8,000 Gold ~TVR |
| Cartel Dumped 2x Annual US Silver Production on Market in 15 Min Posted: 22 Sep 2012 12:15 PM PDT Cartel Dumped 2x Annual US Silver Production on Market in 15 Min to Smash Silver Under $35 September 21, 2012 By The Doc 41 Comments After silver exploded through $35 on this today's COMEX open, we wrote this morning that should silver hold $35 through today's weekly close, the metal would quickly run to $37-$37.50 early next week as a massive short squeeze developed. The cartel understood the predicament they were in, and responded with a massive paper dump on the market to stuff price back below $35. Between 10:35 and 10:50am EST, an astonishing 62.5 million ounces of paper silver were indiscriminately dumped on the market to induce the sell-off- nearly twice US annual silver production of 36 million ounces!! raid1.jpg http://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-...lver-under-35/ |
| Bart Chilton: Silver Market Investigation Statement Coming Soon Posted: 22 Sep 2012 05:21 AM PDT Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price chopped and flopped around through all of Far East and most of early London trading yesterday...and was up about five bucks by lunchtime in London. Then, about ten minutes before Comex trading began in New York, a rally of some significance got underway. That rally got capped in less than an hour...and from there the price traded more or less sideways until a not-for-profit seller showed up at 10:40 a.m. Eastern time...and thirty minutes later, the gold price was back below where the rally had started. The subsequent rally petered out...and the price drifted lower from there, before trading sideways from 2:30 p.m. Eastern time onwards into the electronic close. Gold closed the Friday trading day at $1,773.00 spot...up $4.50 from Thursday's close. Volume was sky high at 195,000 contracts.
It was precisely the same story in silver at precisely the same times, except for the sell-off that came at 10:40 a.m. Eastern time. The not-for-profit seller had silver down almost a dollar in less than ten minutes. After that pounding was over, silver traded in the same pattern as gold into the 5:15 p.m. Eastern time electronic close. Silver's high around 9:00 a.m. Eastern time was $35.32 spot...and the low around 10:45 a.m. was $34.23 spot. The silver price, which had been up 66 cents at one point, closed on Friday at $34.52 spot...down 12 cents on the day. Volume was monstrous at 68,000 contracts.
Here's the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own so you can see the stunning waterfall decline in much greater detail.
A mini-version of that happened in platinum as well...but there was no sign of it all in palladium. These rallies/price smashes were gold and silver specific...and the 10:40 a.m. price declines were as far away from free-market price action as you can get. The dollar index moved mostly lower in Far East, London and early trading in New York. The two low price ticks...just above 79.05...coming at precisely 10:00 a.m. in London and precisely 9:00 a.m. in New York. After the second low, the index rallied about 32 basis points and finished the Friday trading session basically unchanged from Thursday's close, at 79.39. It only takes a cursory glance to see that there was no co-relation between gold and silver prices...and the dollar index...during the New York trading session.
Not surprisingly, the gold stocks gapped up strongly at the open...and headed lower from there. They went slightly negative when gold got hit...but bounced back into positive territory immediately...and stayed there for the rest of the day. The HUI finished up 0.64%.
Despite the fact that silver finished down on the day, the silver stocks that mattered, did pretty well for themselves...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.99%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 24 gold and 222 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday within the Comex-approved depositories. The short/issuer turned out to be none other than Deutsche Bank with all 222 contracts. These contracts will be received by seven different long/stoppers. Most will be delivered to JPMorgan, the Bank of Nova Scotia...and Jefferies. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth a peek. There was a really big deposit into the GLD ETF, as an authorized participant added 300,538 troy ounces yesterday. There were no reported changes in SLV. Nick Laird informed me that Sprott's Physical Silver Trust [PSLV] added another 285,000 ounces to their fund yesterday. The U.S. Mint had another sales report. They sold 6,500 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 314,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 45,000 ounces of gold eagles...7,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,275,000 silver eagles. It's been a pretty decent sales month so far...and there are still five business days left. It was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 627,405 troy ounces of silver...and shipped a very chunky 1,516,525 troy ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here. As expected, it was another pretty unhappy looking Commitment of Traders Report yesterday. In silver, the Commercial traders increased their net short position by another 3,202 contracts, or 16.0 million ounces and, according to Ted Butler, about 2,500 of that was Morgan. The Commercial net short position currently stands at 252.4 million ounces of silver and, according to Ted, JPMorgan is currently short 147.5 million ounces of silver all by itself. JPMorgan's holdings represents 58.4% of the Commercial net short position in silver...and dare I mention that JPM holds short 28.5% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis. The 'Big 4' traders...including JPMorgan...are short 44.7% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis...and the '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 8.8 percentage points. As a group, the 'Big 8' short holders hold short 53.5% of the Comex silver futures market on a net basis...and that's a minimum number. In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by 1,254,200 troy ounces...and now stands at 24.96 million ounces of gold. Ted says that it was all the 'Big 4'..as they increased their short position by about 1.65 million ounces...and the '5 through 8' and the raptors didn't do much. As of the Tuesday cut-off, the 'Big 4' traders on the short side are short 14.36 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.36 million ounces...for a total of 19.72 million ounces held short by the 'Big 8' traders. As a percentage of the Comex gold market on a net basis, the 'Big 4' are short 31.9%...and the '5 through 8' are short an additional 11.9 percentage points. So, altogether, the 'Big 8' traders are short 43.8% of the Comex gold market on a net basis and, once again, those are minimum numbers. Reader E.W.F. pointed out in his weekly e-mail to me yesterday that..."The non-reportable gold traders (small speculators) hold their largest net long position since February 4, 2002." Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Contracts" updated with Tuesday's COT data...
(Click on image to enlarge) And here are a couple of charts that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way yesterday...and I would suspect that he stole them for some Zero Hedge article. The first chart shows the gold price against various currencies and indexes both before and after the Swiss pegged the franc to the euro. The euro is the dark blue trace.
(Click on image to enlarge) The second chart is the euro chart on its own going back just over two years. Note the break out in the last few days.
(Click on image to enlarge) It should come as no surprise that I have a lot of stories in today's column...and I hope you can find the time over what's left of the weekend to read the ones that interest you the most. I'm still as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs about what JPMorgan et al will do in the very short term Dalio on Gold: Buffett is Making a Big Mistake. Gold Seen Luring Wealthy as Central Bankers Expand Stimulus. Now China has the claim on Venezuela's Las Cristinas gold mine. Critical Reads$2.5 billion sent to victims of Madoff's fraudBernard Madoff's victims will soon receive $2.48 billion to help cover their losses, by far the largest payout since the swindler's massive fraud was uncovered nearly four years ago. Checks ranging from $1,784 to $526.9 million were mailed Wednesday to 1,230 former customers of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, according to Irving Picard, the trustee liquidating the firm. The latest payout more than triples the total recovery to $3.63 billion, Picard said Thursday. Thus 1,074 customers with valid claims, or 44 percent of the total number, will be fully repaid, he added. Customers had previously recovered $1.15 billion, including sums committed by the Securities Investor Protection Corp., which helps customers of failed brokerages. The average payout in Wednesday's distribution was $2.02 million. This story showed up on The Washington Post's Internet site on Thursday sometime...and I thank Donald Sinclair for our first story of the day. The link is here. Peregrine customers to get first payoutPeregrine Financial Group customers will receive their first payout — totaling roughly $123 million — after a federal bankruptcy judge Thursday approved a distribution plan from trustee Ira Bodenstein. The first wave of funds will go to customers with accounts totaling less $50,000, and will be distributed on or before Oct. 8. A second distribution to be made on or before Oct. 29 will include customers with account balances of more than $50,000, provided that the trustee's office is able to determine the validity to those accounts. This short story showed up on the futuresmag.com website yesterday...and is Donald Sinclair's second offering in a row. The link is here. Senate JPMorgan Probe Said to Seek Tougher Volcker RuleA U.S. Senate panel probing the multibillion-dollar trading loss by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) plans to unveil its findings at a hearing this year to press regulators to tighten the Volcker rule, according to three people briefed on the matter. Staff members of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, headed by Senator Carl Levin, have interviewed JPMorgan officials as well as examiners and supervisors at the institution's regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the inquiry isn't public. One focus of the queries is whether JPMorgan's wrong-way bets on derivatives would have been permitted under regulators' initial draft of the Volcker ban on proprietary trading, the people said. The lender lost $5.8 billion on the trades in the first six months of the year. This Bloomberg story from yesterday was sent to me by reader 'David in California'...and the link is here. Housing, Diminishing Returns and Opportunity CostThe Fed's policies of keeping interest rates at zero and buying mortgage-backed securities are intended, we're assured, to bolster the housing market by making it cheaper for buyers to borrow money. With mortgage rates under 4% and a trillion (soon to be two) dollars of dodgy mortgages transferred from the banks' tottering balance sheets to the Fed's wonderfully opaque balance sheet, then this appears plausible. But of course it's all a PR ruse, like everything else the Fed says. If the Fed wanted to "save" housing and not the banks, why not buy mortgages directly from homeowners? Instead of buying underwater mortgages from the banks, why not just buy the entire $10 trillion of residential mortgages outstanding and charge the homeowners the same rate the Fed charges banks, i.e. zero? The Fed's goal is not to relieve debt-serfdom, it's to enforce it. The entire purpose of the Fed's policies is to ensure homeowners keep paying interest to banks for the rest of the lives, and to encourage those who are not yet debt-serfs to join the serfdom with a "cheap" mortgage. This short story by Charles Hugh Smith was posted over at the financialsense.com Internet site yesterday...and is your first must read of the day. I thank reader U.D. for bringing it to our attention...and the link is here. Doug Noland: Credit Bubble Bulletin - Z1, QE3 and Deleveraging"Our economic structure certainly enjoys unmatched capacity to absorb Credit excess without engendering traditional consumer price inflation. Yet there is indeed a huge problem that no one seems to want to recognize: Our system also has an unprecedented capacity to expand Credit that is backed by little in the way of wealth-creating capacity. Our government literally throws Trillions at the economy – Credit that inflates incomes and sustains consumption and elevates asset prices. The downside of this economic miracle is that, at the end of the day, there's little left to show for the whole exercise except for an ever-expanding mountain of suspect financial claims. Moreover, market values of these claims are sustained only by the unrelenting expansion of additional claims/Credit. This is Minsky's "Ponzi Finance" at a systemic level." Doug's 'big picture' view of the world's credit markets are always worth reading...and his missive from yesterday certainly falls into that category. The link is here. Debt Relief: Lenders Reportedly Consider New Greek HaircutIn order to restore the country's debt sustainability, Greece's lenders are reportedly considering further relief in the form of a partial debt haircut for the crisis-wracked country, the Financial Times Deutschland reported on Friday. Citing unnamed "euro-zone sources," the paper said the focus was on bilateral loans from the currency union's first bailout program for the country, the nearly €53-billion ($69 billion) Greek Loan Facility, which ran from May 2010 to the end of 2011. "There is a discussion," a high-level official told the paper. Martin Blessing, chairman of Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank, has also said a second debt haircut is likely. "In the end we will see another debt haircut for Greece, in which all creditors will take part," he said on Thursday in Frankfurt. Sooner or later, all the world's debt will disappear...either by hyperinflation or by default. This story appeared on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering of the day. The link is here. No Longer Immune Crisis Hits German Luxury CarmakersThe global financial crisis and double-dip recession in many countries has left Germany largely unscathed in recent years, but there are signs that trend may be reversing. Luxury German carmaker Daimler announced on Thursday that this year it would no longer reach the €5 billion ($6.52 billion) in operating profits it recorded in 2011. Prior to the announcement, the company had hoped to match last year's earnings. "The overall market in Europe is deteriorating, with more negative developments than expected," Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche told reporters in Stuttgart. Bloomberg has also reported that the current European car market is the worst in 17 years and that problems are starting to spread into the luxury automobile sector, once thought to be immune from the crisis. On Friday, the Financial Times Deutschland newspaper reported on alleged plans by Daimler to introduce €1 billion in cost-cutting measures. Luxury car companies have been largely buffered from the crises that have rocked mass automobile manufacturers like Fiat, Opel, Ford and Peugeot in recent years, because wealthy customers in Russia and China have continued to purchase expansive sedans. Daimler has been able to rely on strong sales in Germany, the United States and China to keep its bottom line healthy. This is another story from the spiegel.de Internet site yesterday...and this one is courtesy of Donald Sinclair. The link is Posted: 22 Sep 2012 03:55 AM PDT "It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And, then, like, the earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer." –From the Washington Post's Mensa Invitational: A contest where brilliant people take a dictionary word and alter it slightly to supply a new definition. -From our Northern Advisor. We enjoy word games as much as the next guy or gal. This one however, appears to hit home, as the Feral Reserve and their entourage of happy banker clowns continue to dismember the global economy by printing bonds and currencies that are backed entirely by smoke, mirrors and media manure. The Wall Street Journal last week referred to the upcoming fall schedule for Europe's seasonal so-called policy makers' meetings as "Judgment Days." During this cycle they will be purportedly dancing around a propitiously timed, alleged QE-3 right in front of the largest, most important election in the world which happens in the USA on November 6. Hey, is this going to be a fun fall or what? Get ready to sell tickets to Squirm City, that neato prolonged event where the pols and their fiat money henchmen find serious disarray. In our view, these people are not as smart as they think they are, tip-toeing through a credit minefield so far-fetched we dare them not to step on a trip-wire such as the example of Long Term Capital's mess in the middle 1990s when Russian Bonds became decidedly unworthy, threatening an implosion of global credit. That event was just little league compared to what we see coming over the next six months. Those alleged leader-authority dopes will be holding meetings to schedule more meetings in a fanciful extend and pretend just like the wise guys (wise men?) preparing to leave their annual fishing, drinking, gourmet and limo-riding vacation in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After all, Chopper Ben and his money helicopter are ready and standing by. Our schoolteacher Feral Reserve Chairman (who can't grow hair on his head but can on his chin to look "wise") is seriously ready to "do whatever we need to do" to save the world with the printing press. Yeah, sure. We have an extraordinary serene and peaceful relief: Benny can save us all! Ha! Not even my deceased dog, bless his heart, would ever believe that one. We're sure the locals in Jackson were happy to take their taxpayer plastic money and then show them the door, sending them back to La La–Land on the left and right liberal-socialist-commie coasts from whence they came. The real people, those that work and earn a living and behave themselves, reside in the middle country between the coasts. This area is a more peaceful region of reality where genuine folks work hard to pay taxes, which end up supporting this passel of coastal credit degenerates. In our somewhat detached and jaundiced observation we like to call such a moment in time as a lovely, religious experience; one of economic reverence, where a shining light of reality turns into a Nightmare on K Street in Washington, D.C., home of the USA lobbyists who are busy writing nefarious legislation and lining their pockets as they empty those of the American taxpayers. The answer to this major mess is there is no answer. We are witnessing the upcoming dissolution of the Euro Currency, Euro-land and Bond-land, all self-destructing in a massive confidence failure in any kind of paper. Since the European region is triple the population of the United States, this baby will not be a Fourth of July firecracker but rather a boomer of a bunker buster felt in markets over the globe. Many analysts suggest the US dollar is now going over the hill to oblivion, but we think the old greenback will instead stand with a lesser value. Normally, smashed markets drop -50% as they experience a hard sell in a Fibonnacci Retracement cycle. So, as we have predicted before, the dollar value drop could go from 80.00 on the trading index to 46.00-40.00. This means your assets are then worth about half what they were last week. A skidding of the currencies and more importantly the US Dollar can sell and drop in fits and starts. However in a weaker nursery of very ill fiat currency children, the dollar should retain the most strength; at least for now. Dollar reserve measures fell from about 85% of the whole worldly money pile to roughly 77% in the past few years or so. The buck is still king, especially as the Big Boy Euro turns into a vanishing nothing. These self-appointed Turkeys and Turkettes are writing and deciding economic policy this fall for the entire continent, affecting billions of people who are helpless (for the most part) to defend themselves against this insidious agenda. However, as we have expressed numerous times before in our work, these policy makers are doomed to fail as their primary credit weapons, the bond markets, and fiat currencies are rushing toward a crash and burn cliff and they know it. The bond market is sincerely weaker as it takes longer and longer for any results from crummier sales events in a strain for gain. One report told us last week that over 60% of Benny's paper is now in his hands and not in the hands of stupid investors who do no know any better. The world is in a race to unload the paper for hard assets in trades, sales or whatever, just to get out from under quickly diminishing values. In the USA, this cliff has been named The Fiscal Cliff. We would call it a major credit money mistake but not nearly as big in stature as Europe's current failing and falling in fiscal flames. Our American communist administration will probably get new taxes on those earning more than $250,000 per year, in 2013, with those earning less, being consumed with dozens of new back-door taxes heretofore not in existence. This way the media can say the Big Boyz pay as the peons get relief. Sorry, but no they don't. In this ugly stealth plan, we all get screwed and pay more across the boards. Unless and until the bond markets vanish; the tax and spend and take and seize game marches on. The Big Boyz administration definition means those with wealth that used to invest and provide millions of jobs for their former employees. For now that wealth is running to hide for preservation and self defense while millions of former jobs are gone forever. With the bankers' ability to print more paper in prodigious amounts and then use it for pseudo financing, being curtailed and destroyed; the central banker suits, we think will be eradicated in one very unglamorous demise. On the surface they appear to portray a stiff upper lip marching forward as they hope for the best. They clearly know the horror ending but are nervously hopeful they can quickly steal with impunity first, and then escape with their criminal largesse before the Great Unwinding. This dissolution event would probably be observed as just a whining whimper and not a major news explosion due to the sheer size of their phony billions printed throughout the world. It's kind of like the frog in the boiling pot; we're ok for now as Karmageddon comes later. Keep in mind it's always the weak and defenseless nations that fall first. Greece is a prime example similar to Iceland and Ireland. Those victim countries are small and easily run-over by the juggernaut of central bankers' power. Note now that part is over. It's just history as the next wreckage will not be spreading to the biggest of the big like Germany, Japan and the United States (their turn comes later) but rather more toward what we call the small-intermediates, similar to Eastern European satellite states and several others located in South America. Meanwhile, China is not small potatoes either and they are slipping faster than most understand. We do, as we get several direct nightly reports from Asia. China, Japan, and Korea are suffering and experiencing great difficulty. China is the larger immediate worry due to its power and size in that region of the world. In that neck of the woods weaker Viet Nam has fallen first. Theoretically, China could fall before Europe on the numbers but we say no, as they have more power to manipulate the game extending it for many more months. For China, they can just hide their troubles and control media to the external world by saying, "It's all ok!" We knew of their problems as the numbers began to slide eight months ago and they are still getting worse. The Denouement of Destruction. Of the largest nations, who falls first? The Big Boy Plunge is the Grand finale, the Denouement of Destruction; as in maybe a super huge economy like all of Europe's nation states, and their neighbors, surrounded by economic idiots sliding into the abyss, as bankers pick apart the financial carcass of 850,000,000 innocent citizens. Europe's big test arrives this fall and that will be the German citizen referendum held to approve and extend credit to broken neighbors; or not. The long list of scary fall meetings as expressed in The Wall Street Journal on Friday, August 31, 2012, can be more easily maligned and manipulated in our view. What these Bozos and Bozettes cannot control is the will of the German people! That is the uncontrollable trip wire beyond the reach of these bankers holding the credit steering wheel with ever-increasingly trembling hands. Watch the German Supreme Court extend and defer their supposed histrionic decision on September 12th, saying it has to come later. They are supposed to rule on the validity of the Euro-zones bailout fund. This one is way to serious with broad implications. It's a lot easier to delay the decision and let the German voters do it for them. Are you kidding? That decision is the third rail of money and politics in Germany and the robes will not touch that one fearing instant political and citizen inflicted pain and electrocution. Those judges will do a Duck and Run with Germany's politicians letting the voters say no and do their dirty work. Then, they can all say: "See we didn't say no! Honestly, we wanted to give all the broken and busted neighbor nations more credit they can never repay, but those naughty German voters just wouldn't let us do it." Now there is a really big load of stuff. To that we say: Go German Voters Go! Give those criminals a resounding NEIN and then watch them run in fear and dismay. Afterwards, the world can scrap bond-land and start over with a new and fresh, clean slate with the international criminal gang of trauma tormentors defeated and erased once and for all. In the USA, we see so many things that can go wrong over the next 90 days it's difficult to suggest what might go right. That's a story for another day and we view expressing that one with great enthusiasm and vigor. While all eyes are on Europe's destruction, the USA's test comes November 6th. It might even arrive sooner if the broader stock markets slide out of control during September 23-25. Meanwhile, gravitate toward physical gold and silver and only the best of the best of related stocks supporting that view. In our work we are busy looking for options, and selling ideas for the broader stock markets heading toward the dustbin of destruction. The Greater Depression Repression II is swiftly taking hold now and layoffs will be legendary. Housing has an additional -20% drop from the current USA national average. Joblessness goes to 30%-35% and food stamps reach over 50 million to 60 million. We will get a 2013-2014 World War in the Middle East and when Obama is re-elected, inflation goes to hyperinflation. Not happy stuff but it's not the end of the world either. Somebody please tell us when the global bond markets crash for good and we'll tell you when this can all get better and we can start all over again, maybe with a partially backed fiat gold currency. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
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