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Wednesday, September 19, 2012

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Volatility Is A Risk Worth Shorting

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 11:35 AM PDT

Matthew Crews:

As an active participant in designing portfolios, I try to be cognizant of best practices and what portfolio design techniques will predictably deliver desired results. Therefore, I was pulled into a recent string of articles initiated by fellow SA contributor, Daniel Moser.

Mr. Moser has presented the idea that risk allocation based on volatility is a worthwhile endeavor and appropriate versus dollar allocation. (A follow up was provided based on commentary/criticisms by fellow contributor Roger Nusbaum.) I would agree largely with Daniel's perspective and would like to expand the


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How To Build A GLD-Free Gold Bug Portfolio

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 11:35 AM PDT

By CommodityHQ:

By Daniela Pylypczak

Gold's massive historical returns have left no shortage of gold bugs in the commodity world. For years, investors have been flocking to the precious metal, choosing the commodity as their number one choice for safe haven investing. Gold also holds its appeal as being a potential hedge against inflation, allowing investors to protect their portfolios from a rise in prices. Although the yellow metal has no major industrial purposes, its demand across both developed and emerging markets has grown tremendously over the years as investors seek to add value and stability to their portfolios.

In the gold exchange-traded product space, there is perhaps no fund more instrumental to gold's rise than the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which just so happens to be the second largest ETF in the world. GLD is home to nearly $68 billion in total assets and trades over 9 million times a day.


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Yelp CEO Sells, You Should Too

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 11:12 AM PDT

By Joe Woodlief:

Much ado was made when the Yelp (YELP) stock lockout date (08/28/12) came and went without major insider selling. The "insider discipline" was celebrated, Yelp was crowned the anti-Facebook (FB) in terms of post IPO performance, and the share price has since risen by 40.7%. However, Yelp is significantly overvalued at its current 1.57 billion dollar market capitalization. Yelp is a prime short candidate because much of the perceived post lockup confidence is contrived, the tremendous recent growth was driven by fallaciously impatient short covers, the stock's fundamentals are poor, and the company's business model is flawed.

To its credit, Yelp has perceptive management who understand the importance of conveying confidence immediately after the lockup expiration, especially in light of the recent negative performance of Facebook, Zynga (ZNGA), and Groupon (GRPN). They knew that if they exited en masse at the lockup expiration then it would undermine investor confidence. Instead


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Will The Carry Trade Continue To Favor Australia?

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 10:39 AM PDT

By Ralph Shell:

In late August, we looked at the aussie dollar and thought it was due for a sell off, and it did for a modest couple hundred points. Then it turned around and rallied from 1.0165 to a high of 1.0624. It has since backed off from the high, but remains above the 1.04 handle. Where do we go now?

Part of our analysis in late August was based upon a longer term fundamental view that the global economy was slowing, as was the demand for iron ore, Australia's biggest earner of aussie dollars. Further, the A$ was, and is richly priced, making it difficult to export other Australian products.

Also, the late August COT report showed the specs were long 98.1K futures contracts -- a big commitment. Usually going into the expiration of a futures contract, there is liquidation of positions. This meant the big long position might weigh on


Complete Story »

ECB Debasement Is Akin To Work Of Devil – Risk Of “Rapid Currency Depreciation”

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 08:13 AM PDT

gold.ie

Millrock Acquires Stellar Copper-Gold Project, Central Alaska

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 08:08 AM PDT

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Sep 19, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Millrock Resources Inc. CA:MRO 0.00% ("Millrock" or the "Company") announced today that it has generated a new copper-gold project named Stellar. The project is located in central Alaska 13 km north of the Denali Highway and 68 km west of the town of Paxson. The property, which was acquired by staking, covers the Zackly copper-gold skarn deposit and surrounding lands considered prospective for porphyry copper-gold deposits. At Zackly, a historical resource of 218,944 ounces of gold and 66.9 million pounds of copper contained in a deposit of 1,244,000 tons (1,128,500 tonnes) grading 0.176 ounces per ton (6.03 grams per tonne) gold and 2.69 % copper has been reported by prior explorers (UNC Teton Exploration and Drilling Inc., 1982). (note:A qualified person has not done sufficient work to classify the historical estimate as current mineral resources. The issuer is not treating the historical estimate as current mineral resources).

Philip St. George, Millrock Chief Exploration Officer, stated: "We feel that the skarn resource can be readily expanded. The favourable limestone-diorite contact can be traced hundreds of meters along strike in both directions from the resource area, and with the exception of the "main skarn zone", has had limited drilling. Additionally, there are indications that the gold grade may be significantly under-reported. Outside of the previously defined skarn zones, we feel the project has significant potential for the discovery of a large copper-gold porphyry system. Our exploration crews have discovered porphyry mineralization at surface that has not been drill tested and Millrock soil sampling has extended anomalous zones substantially."

The Zackly skarn was originally staked by Resource Associates of Alaska (RAA) in the 1970s with the majority of exploration campaigns occurring between 1981 and 1994. The most extensive exploration programs were conducted as part of several joint ventures between RAA/Nerco and Teton Exploration Drilling, Boulder Gold, Phelps Dodge and Hemlo Gold/Noranda. Historical diamond and reverse circulation drilling on the skarn prospect totals approximately 40,000 ft (12,192 m) in approximately 85 holes. Known areas of skarn mineralization occur over a strike length in excess of three km with the known resource occurring within the "main skarn zone" which has a strike length of approximately one km. The majority of the historical drilling occurred in the "main skarn zone" with the remaining trend, which includes extensive covered areas, seeing only limited drilling. In addition to drilling, the property has seen extensive geochemical, geophysical and geological surveys. All historical data, as well as sample pulps and core, were recently obtained by Millrock in a purchase agreement. Presently the Company is digitizing the information and bringing drill hole logs and analytical data into its Geographic Information System.

Millrock began staking claims in the area in 2010, subsequently adding claims in early 2011 and finally in August of this year bringing the total project area to an approximate 30,500 hectares (see figure here: http://millrockresources.com/projects/stellar/ ). Since 2010, Millrock has collected 388 soil, 199 rock and 99 stream sediment samples throughout the project area resulting in the discovery of at least four new copper and/or gold prospects. Of particular note is the Mars prospect, located approximately 10 km west of Zackly. This prospect consists of altered diorite intruding volcanic rocks with extensive gossan exposures that locally contain copper mineralization. Soil sample lines across altered zones consistently returned anomalous values including 950 meters averaging 763 ppm copper and 1.2 kilometers averaging 462 ppm copper.

Millrock considers the Stellar Project a highly prospective property with excellent exploration potential for the discovery of significant porphyry copper/gold, skarn and intrusive-related gold mineralization. Millrock, which has 100% ownership of the project subject to a royalty to Altius Minerals, is currently seeking a joint venture partner for the project. Additional information on the Stellar Project, as well as all of Millrock's available properties is available at the Millrock Resources website ( www.millrockresources.com ).

The technical information in this news release was reviewed by Gregory Beischer, Millrock's President and Chief Executive Officer, a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101.

About Millrock Resources Inc.

Millrock Resources Inc. is a premier project generator to the mining industry. In the search for world-class gold and copper deposits in mineral rich Alaska and Arizona, Millrock identifies, packages and operates large-scale projects for joint venture, thereby exposing its shareholders to the benefits of mineral discovery without the usual financial risk and attendant shareholder dilution taken on by most exploration companies. Millrock currently has twelve active exploration projects, eight gold-copper properties in Alaska, and four porphyry copper prospects in Arizona. With funding primarily coming from its joint venture partners, Millrock plans to carry out exploration programs with a total value of more than US$11 million in 2012. Business partners of Millrock include some of the leading names in the mining industry: Kinross, Teck, Vale, Inmet and Altius, as well as junior explorer Crescent Resources.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Gregory Beischer, President & CEO

Some statements in this news release contain forward-looking information. These statements address future events and conditions and, as such, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the statements. Such factors include without limitation the completion of planned expenditures, the ability to complete exploration programs on schedule and the success of exploration programs.

"NEITHER TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION SERVICES PROVIDER (AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED IN THE POLICIES OF THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE) ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS RELEASE."

                  Contacts:          Millrock Resources Inc.          Gregory A. Beischer          President & CEO          (604) 638-3164          (604) 688-9620 (FAX)     www.millrockresources.com                                      

September 19, 2012 (Source: marketwatch)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/millrock-acquires-stellar-copper-gold-project-central-alaska-2012-09-19-9173534

Disclosure:  Millrock Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI).  Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating and hold long positions in MRO.V or MLRKF.   

100% Brazilian Gold Corp Owned São Jorge Project - Updated Resource Estimate Increases Indicated Gold Ounces by 43%

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 08:02 AM PDT

Brazilian Gold Corp (BGC) NOW HAS A TOTAL INDICATED RESOURCE OF 541,000 OUNCES GRADING 1.2 G/T GOLD AND INFERRED RESOURCE OF 1,497,000 OUNCES GRADING 0.8 G/T GOLD AT A 0.3 G/T CUT-OFF ON THREE PROJECTS IN BRAZIL

Brazilian Gold Corporation (TSXV: BGC) is pleased to report the updated NI43-101 compliant mineral resource for the São Jorge gold deposit that includes 14,230,000 t grading 1.18 g/t gold (541,000 oz) in the indicated category and 27,810,000 t grading 0.68 g/t gold (611,000 oz) in the inferred category at a 0.3 g/t cut-off. The estimate incorporates an additional 14,393 m (38 holes) of diamond drilling completed by Brazilian Gold in 2011 as compared to the previous estimate that was based on 22,762 m (110 holes) of diamond drilling completed by the previous operators. The mineral resource estimate was completed by Coffey Mining (Coffey) of Toronto, Ontario and is documented in an independent NI43-101 Technical Report that will be posted on our website and SEDAR within 45 days of this News Release.

The wholly owned São Jorge property (585 km2) is well situated with respect to infrastructure that includes hydro-electric power, a paved highway 3 km due east of the deposit, and a skilled workforce in the nearby town of Novo Progresso located 70 km to the south. Highlights

 

  • Indicated ounces have increased by 43% (partly reflecting an 18% increase in indicated grade) when compared to the previous resource estimate in the 2011 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) by Coffey both of which were reported at a 0.3 g/t gold cut-off.
  • At a 0.5 g/t gold cut-off grade, the indicated gold grade increases to 1.40 g/t gold (Table 1) with a total of 465,000 contained ounces.
  • Inferred ounces have increased 9.5% (partly reflecting a 35% increase in tonnage) when compared to the 2011 PEA.
  • Selective mining of internal waste in the deposit and diverting this tonnage to a surface stockpile may result in an increase in the head grade delivered to the process plant.
  • Potential robust operating margin suggested by the insitu metal value of US$67/tonne (indicated resource grade of 1.18 g/t and gold price of $1,765/oz) and the 2011 PEA operating cost of US$16.36/tonne; (note mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability).
  • An untested 1.5 km long resistivity +/- chargeability anomaly southeast of the São Jorge deposit is similar to the geophysical signature over the deposit suggesting potential to find additional zones of gold mineralization to the southeast; potential to find new gold deposits on the largely unexplored São Jorge property is considered excellent.

    To view IP map, please visit the following link:
    http://www.braziliangold.ca/email/20120919-1/Sao-Jorge-IP-Interpretation.jpg
  • Strong mineral inventory growth on our three most advance stage projects—São Jorge, Surubim (Jau) and Boa Vista (VG1); see Tables 2 and 3.

Ian Stalker, CEO of Brazilian Gold, commented "We are delighted with the results of the updated independent resource estimate on the São Jorge deposit. The increase in tonnage and grade of the indicated resource suggests that significantly more ounces will fall within the pit shell as compared to the 2011 PEA, as well as the increase in the inferred ounces that will fall into the same mining inventory.

In addition, as identified by the recent drilling and more detailed geological interpretation of the deposit, there is potential to increase the overall deposit grade by selectively mining the low grade internal waste and diverting it to a surface stockpile instead of sending it through the process plant.

The updated resource numbers along with recently completed metallurgy, power studies, environmental assessments, as well as the depreciation of the Brazilian 'Real' will be incorporated in an updated PEA, which should result in substantially better economics than the previous more than acceptable PEA results, and will make the decision to move to production more compelling.

Finally, with the recently identified geophysical anomaly located directly southeast of the deposit and extending for greater than 1.5 km, the potential to find additional zones of gold mineralization makes us even more confident about the future development of our São Jorge Project in Brazil."

The São Jorge resource estimate is based on 22,762 m (110 holes) of diamond drilling completed by the previous operators and 14,393 m (38 holes) of diamond drilling completed by Brazilian Gold since acquiring the project in late 2010. Gold assays (19,590) were composited at 1 m lengths and interpolated into the block model using multiple indicator kriging. A three dimensional solid model of the primary and oxide mineralization was constructed to constrain the resource estimate. The block model is comprised of individual blocks measuring 5 m by 5 m by 5 m. The mineral resource estimate (oxide and primary mineralization) at various cut-off grades is shown in Table 1; the oxide resource comprises a small part (9 %) of this overall resource. A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on the São Jorge deposit was completed in June 2011, which indicates an economic open pit cut-off grade of 0.3 g/t gold using a gold price of US$1,300 and economic parameters as outlined in the report.

Table 1: São Jorge indicate and inferred mineral resource (oxide and sulphide)* at various cut-off grades.
 Lower Cutoff Grade (g/t Au)Million TonnesAverage Grade (g/t Au)Contained Gold (Kozs)
Indicated Mineral Resource 0.3 14.23 1.18 541
0.4 12.00 1.29 499
0.5 10.36 1.40 465
Inferred Mineral Resource 0.3 27.81 0.68 611
0.4 22.12 0.74 526
0.5 18.53 0.78 467

*According to National Instrument 43-101 and CIM (2005) an "Inferred Mineral Resource" is that part of a Mineral Resource for which quantity and grade or quality can be estimated on the basis of geological evidence and limited sampling and reasonably assumed, but not verified geological and grade continuity. The estimate is based on limited information and sampling gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, workings and drill holes. Due to the uncertainty that may be attached to Inferred Mineral Resources, it cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Mineral Resource will be upgraded to an Indicated or Measured Mineral Resource as a result of continued exploration. Confidence in the estimate is insufficient to allow the meaningful application of technical and economic parameters or to enable an evaluation of economic viability worthy of public disclosure.


The São Jorge deposit is approximately 1,400 m long by up to 200 m wide and has been intersected in drill holes to 350 m depth; the deposit strikes northwest and has a sub-vertical dip. The deposit is hosted in quartz monzogranite and mineralization appears to be spatially associated with a number of discontinuous shear and fracture zones. Alteration minerals included chlorite, epidote, sericite, silica and sulphides that occur along fractures or where the fracture density is high as pervasive alteration. The predominant sulphide is pyrite with minor amounts of chalcopyrite. Gold mineralization is commonly associated with silica-sericite-sulphide alteration and higher gold values are generally associated with higher pyrite content and the presence of chalcopyrite.

Porfirio Cabaleiro, B.Sc., (Mining Engineer), MAIG and Hebert Oliveira, B.Sc. (Geology), MAIG, are the Qualified Persons for the NI43-101 Report on the Resource Estimate of the São Jorge gold deposit and have reviewed and approved the contents of this press release as far as it relates to their work.

Garnet Dawson, M.Sc., P.Geo. (British Columbia), Vice President, Exploration for the Company and a Qualified Person, as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical disclosure contained in this News Release.


About Brazilian Gold Corporation

Brazilian Gold has a resource inventory of 541,000 ounces of gold grading 1.18 g/t gold in the indicated category and 1,497,000 ounces of gold grading 0.79 g/t gold in the inferred category at a 0.3 g/t cut-off that is hosted in three deposits (Table 2).

Table 2: Brazilian Gold 2012 global resource at a 0.3 g/t gold cut-off.
ProjectDepositClassificationCut-off Grade (g/t)TonnageGrade (g/t)Ounces
São Jorge São Jorge Indicated 0.3 14,230,000 1.18 541,000
    Inferred 0.3 27,810,000 0.68 611,000
             
Surubim Jau Inferred 0.3 19,440,000 0.81 503,000
           
Boa Vista VG1 Inferred 0.3 12,130,000 0.98 383,000
     
   
  All deposits Indicated   14,230,000 1.18 541,000
  All deposits Inferred   59,380,000 0.79 1,497,000

At a 0.5 g/t cut-off, the resource inventory is 465,000 ounces grading 1.40 g/t gold in the indicated category and 1,212,000 ounces grading 0.97 g/t gold in the inferred category (Table 3).

Table 3: Brazilian Gold 2012 global resource at a 0.5 g/t gold cut-off.
ProjectDepositClassificationCut-off Grade (g/t)TonnageGrade (g/t)Ounces
São Jorge São Jorge Indicated 0.5 10,360,000 1.40 465,000
    Inferred 0.5 18,530,000 0.79 467,000
             
Surubim Jau Inferred 0.5 11,960,000 1.06 409,000
             
Boa Vista VG1 Inferred 0.5 8,470,000 1.23 336,000
             
  All deposits Indicated   10,360,00 1.40 465,000
  All deposits Inferred   38,960,000 0.97 1,212,000

Brazilian Gold is a Canadian-based public company with a focus on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in northern Brazil. The Company has title to one of the largest land packages (3,753 km2) in the Tapajós and adjacent Alta Floresta gold provinces. The land package contains green fields to more advance stage projects including the Company's flagship São Jorge project. Rapid improvements to regional infrastructure continue to provide underlying support to Brazilian Gold's activities in northern Brazil.


For More Information

Brazilian Gold Coproration
Ian Stalker, CEO and Director
Tel: +1 604 602-8188

Joanne Yan, President and Director
Tel: +1 604 602-8188

Renmark Financial Communications Inc.
Peter Mahzari: pmahzari@renmarkfinancial.com
Laurence Lachance: llachance@renmarkfinancial.com
Tel: +1 514 939-3989 or +1 416 644-2020

September 19, 2012 (Brazilian Gold Corp.)

http://www.braziliangold.ca/corporate/press-releases/20120919-1.html

Disclosure:  Brazilian Gold Corp. is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI).  Members of the GGR team may hold long positions in BGC.V.

Is the Fed’s Goal to Debase the US Dollar?

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 07:55 AM PDT

The Federal Reserve's announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) might have been the worst kept secret, yet the dollar plunged upon the announcement. Here we share our analysis on what makes the FOMC tick.

Is China the Biggest Malinvestment Case of All Time?

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 06:09 AM PDT

Malinvestment is one of the most useful concepts in Austrian economics.

As Wikipedia puts it, malinvestment refers to

investments of firms being badly allocated due to what they assert to be an artificially low cost of credit and an unsustainable increase in money supply, often blamed on a central bank."

Here is a typical chain of events (as laid out by yours truly):

1) Stimulative monetary policy creates falsely optimistic market signals.
 
2) Private investment firms act aggressively on these false signals.
 
3) As a result, the private sector "malinvests," i.e. allocates badly. 
 
4) Capacity is increased prematurely, supply ramped up excessively, etc.
 
5) When the stimulus wears off, the economy is in worse shape than before.
 
6) Overhang of excess debt, capacity, supply etc. serves as a dead weight.
 
7) Struggling to ignite growth, the authorities order more stimulus.
 
8) A speculative bubble ignites instead, furthering the malinvestment.
 
9) Yet more excess capacity, debt, supply etc. is accumulated.
 
10) The additional stimulus wears off…
 
11) Repeat the process until you get full-on economic collapse. 

The really vicious thing about the cycle as described above is this: The collapse at the end is virtually preordained!

Why? Because each round of additional stimulus (and the economic distortions it feeds) leads to more malinvestment, which in turn creates a greater problem, to which stimulus is seen as the answer… as time goes by the merry-go-round spins faster and faster until finally the economy in question is hurled from its horse and thrown violently to the ground.

This phenomenon is dangerously present in modern markets – and particularly in China, where the miracle of +8% growth has been artificially sustained at all costs, stretching to greater and greater heights of danger.

For more on the subject of Austrian economics prophecies, false trends, and stimulus-driven booms and busts, see the following pieces:

Which brings us back to China… we are beginning to wonder if China is perhaps the biggest, grandest, most absolutely stunning case of malinvestment in the history of mankind.

Thanks to central bank stimulus, the West certainly has its own malinvestment problems. But at least a quasi-free market acts as a brake.

In China, the authoritarian structure in which the commanding heights are run from Beijing makes for capital misallocation (malinvestment) on a scale of the Great Wall.

For example: China bulls have long feted the country's top down authoritarian structure as being able to "get things done."

And this is very true. If you want, say, a highway or a dam built in China, then boy howdy, it will get done, regardless of whether five thousand or five hundred thousand people need to be forcibly displaced from their homes.

What this means is that Beijing can approve mass infrastructure projects at the snap of a finger.

What it also means is that, within the context of a rigid and opaque governing system, China has greater ability to do economic damage to itself (through epic malinvestment) than perhaps any Western democracy that has ever existed.

Quite frankly, we are mystified how staunch free market advocates (ahem, Jim Rogers, cough cough) can talk fire and brimstone regarding Western Central banks on one hand, and yet speak of China glowingly on the other hand.

If the Federal-Reserve-induced manipulation and misallocation is toxic — and you bet it is — a system in which free market capital allocation hardly even exists is far, far worse.

To the extent that Western monetary policy is channeled and driven by compromised central banks, the West suffers serious long term consequences. Of that there is no doubt.

But again, and this is not to make apologies for the West but instead to point out partially mitigating factors, at least a quasi free-market exists where rational capital allocators channel large investment sums.

In China, in contrast, there is barely a free market to speak of – with a majority of public companies owned outright by the government!

Consider the following (rather lengthy) excerpt from Foreign Policy, "Why China will never have a Wall Street:"

Since 1992, the MSCI China Index, the most broadly referenced indicator of Chinese market performance, is down over 40 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen only a meager 180 percent. During the same period, China's GDP has rocketed 1,700 percent. This suggests that China's listed companies have not been significant drivers of the country's fantastic growth, and that the capital they have received from investors — some $950 billion from the Hong Kong and domestic markets over the last 20 years — has been seriously misallocated.

The underperformance of China's listed companies is a direct consequence of Beijing's deliberately awkward adaptation of Western-style stock markets to a command-type economy. Despite the country's increasingly first-rate infrastructure and all the other trappings (bankers, investors, regulators, scandals) of development, China's markets only superficially resemble markets elsewhere. A market is where the ownership of a commodity or service is exchanged, not just where securities can be traded on a daily basis. Chinese stock markets do the latter extremely well, but have nothing to do with the exchange of ownership. At a fundamental level, China's markets do not price companies and their businesses because its listed companies are not for sale, and never have been. As Liu Hongru, the first head of the securities regulator and the godfather of China's markets, said in 1992, "The shareholding system is not privatization."

Beijing created its stock markets in the early 1990s because of concern with the poor performance of its state-owned enterprises (SOEs). During the 1980s, private enterprise growth far exceeded that of the SOEs. The government became convinced that adopting the Western capital markets model — diversifying ownership, creating clear corporate structures, and establishing professional legal and audit industries and strong market regulators — would improve SOE management and help them become more competitive both domestically and internationally.

What happened instead was that Beijing excluded non-state companies from the markets and required that absolute ownership control (at least 51 percent) of SOEs remain firmly in the state's hands. As a result, the stock markets have always been the near-exclusive preserve of the state and its own enterprises (the very recent opening in 2009 of the Shenzhen Exchange to private enterprises notwithstanding). This means that only a minority of a company's shares trade. The negative repercussions of this arrangement have reverberated far beyond the markets themselves.

Because the state dominates the markets (which it manages and regulates on behalf of companies it owns as the controlling investor), it can channel capital as it likes: An initial public offering (IPO) is fundamentally a bank loan from a state-controlled bank, not the result of a business owner selling a stake in his company to outside investors seeking the highest return on their capital, as we think of in the West. The Chinese government has used this control to create oligopolies and monopolies — the so-called national champions — run by high-ranking political appointees.

In real markets, companies' attempts to raise capital, as a result, can fail. Not in China! There the government literally sets the price of new shares based on how much funding it needs to raise, then directs other government-controlled entities to invest. Roughly 40 percent of the $9 billion raised in the Shanghai market for the July 2010 IPO of the Agricultural Bank of China, for instance came from other SOEs. This, combined with the more than $13 billion raised on the Hong Kong exchange, helped the bank's IPO to become on the face of it the largest in the history on any market globally. Another first for China.

That's not how equity markets are supposed to work. Substituting the state for market forces eliminates the fundamental valuation function of the market, turning it into an arena for speculation where the value of a share reflects market liquidity and investor expectations driven by government policy and the latest rumor or suggestion of government intervention, subsidy, or stimulus. Faith in a business strategy, product innovation or the quality of corporate management is secondary to what investors think the government wants. As a result, China's investors, retail or institutional, lack the capacity to value companies: There is no need. Nor have China's investment banks (or, for that matter, the government) developed the core competency of analyzing a company and its industry as the basis for equity valuation. The likelihood that a Steve Jobs could raise significant amounts of capital in such markets would depend almost completely on his relationship with the government and not on his innovative vision. China's premier economist, Wu Jinglian, famously called China's stock markets "casinos" and a major source of "crony capitalism." If anything, he was too gentle.

Hmm… remind us again as to the main purpose of public exchanges in the context of a free market economy?

We submit the purpose of publicly traded markets is to allocate investment capital (accumulated savings) in as productive a manner as possible, via the invisible hand of rational incentives (as opposed to the "visible fist" of government, as Bill Gross likes to call it)…

Centuries of Western failures and successes have taught us much, if we are willing to learn, about how the free market works and why it works.

On a fundamental level, the free market works better than any central planning mechanism because it allows millions of self-interested decision makers to carry out logical decisions at a boots-on-the-ground level, without the distortion of political motive.

When Western economies stray from the essentials of the free market model, they suffer at the margins. This also makes perfect sense, as government entities are not incentivized to make decisions on a profit-and-loss basis.

What fails to make sense here and now is how China has been given a free pass (by optimistic bulls) in respect to all the above.

If anything, the natural lessons of history – plus growing evidence of trouble at local levels – suggests China could be headed not just for a hard landing, but something worse.

From the always excellent Michael Pettis, a local observer and finance professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, in a prediction that hard commodity prices will have collapsed by 2015 (emphasis ours):

The consensus on expected economic growth among Chinese and foreign economists living in China has already declined sharply in the past few years. From 8-10% just two years ago, the consensus for average growth rates in China over the next decade has dropped to 5-7%. But the historical precedents suggest we should be wary even of these lower estimates. Throughout the last 100 years countries that have enjoyed investment-driven growth miracles have always had much more difficult adjustments than even the greatest skeptics had predicted.

Re, reasons for extreme China pessimism, we are further reminded of an argument Hugh Hendry made some years back. Call it "death by capacity."

As we know, China's response to the political challenge of maintaining full employment (and keeping GDP up) has been to massively expand its infrastructure capacity, beyond anything like present needs (and possibly well beyond future needs too).

Similarly, China may have geared its export industry for a massively expanded projection of its Western export customer base. Here is Hendry (via FT interview a few years back):

Now if you go back to 1989 in Tokyo, at the height of the bubble, and you looked at the projection of nominal GDP moving forward, it was a continuation of 5 or 6pc per annum in perpetuity. The reality, however, owing to the post bubble difficulty, is that nominal GDP expanded at 1pc per annum. And it created an enormous surplus capacity which has destroyed the profits of the corporate sector – and everything else within Japan.

Now that's my fear. My fear is that China and its contemporaries have built productive capacity not only to service a $14 trillion dollar US economy, but to service an economy and an America that they believed would be $20 trillion dollars in seven years time. My fear is that it could be closer to $15 trillion dollars.

So I see China today as a deep out-of-the-money call option on America. Yeah? China  only has a chance of succeeding if the American economy proves to be vigorous and bounces back. And I don't see the prospects of that happening suddenly imminent.

Note that Europe slowdown, too, is a major pain point relative to China's export outlook.

The likelihood of the West growing less rapidly – perhaps far less rapidly – than the planners in all their wisdom predicted means that, in addition to all those nutty empty highways, roads and bridges, China could be looking at vast swathes of state-directed export capacity simply becoming dead weight (i.e. major malinvestment).

Bottom line: Given the weight of economic history, the case for China hard landing, or even outright economic collapse, is compelling…

The four most dangerous words to investors, as the old saw goes, are "This time it's different." Those who argue China will be okay (like Stephen Roach for example) are essentially arguing the dragon is different, in much the same way pre-2007 housing bulls — who bet the farm on the notion that home prices could never decline – thought the housing bubble was "different."

Adding kerosene to the fire, China has seemingly replicated many of the gross mistakes of the West along the way. Shadow banking, subprime, bad loans, mountains of inventory… it's all there.

If theory and the lessons of history are not enough, consider the following empirical evidence:

FedEx CEO Fred Smith on China (via BI / Cullen Roche). "…as the big economies in Europe and the U.S. have grown or contracted — grown at a far lesser rate or, in the case of certain European countries, have contracted, that's reflected in the numbers in China. And you can't escape that. I've been somewhat amused watching some of the China observers, I think, completely underestimate the effects of the slower exports on the overall China economy."

China hit by demands of oversupply (Financial Times). [Here is that malinvestment result - JS] "Like thousands of Chinese companies from property developers to car manufacturers, Li Ning is sitting on a mountain of unsold products. Whether they can whittle down these bulging inventories is the single most important question facing corporate China and arguably the economy as a whole…"

In Vietnam, Growing Fears of an Economic Meltdown (New York Times). [How different are Vietnam's communist leaders from China's? - JS] "In Vietnam's major cities, a once-booming property market has come crashing down. Hundreds of abandoned construction sites are the most obvious signs of a sickly economy… "I can say this is the same as the crisis in Thailand in 1997," said Hua Ngoc Thuan, the vice chairman of the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, the city's top executive body. "Property investors pushed the prices so high. They bought for speculation — not for use."

China's steel traders expose banks bad debt (Reuters). [Malinvestment galore - JS] "The battle between the banks and steel traders also exposes flaws in the 4 trillion ($629 billion) stimulus round in 2008, and offers a warning to those calling for pumping more money into the system. At that time, Chinese banks threw money at the steel trade – a crucial cog in supplying the country's massive construction and infrastructure growth. But those steel loans, after offering a quick fix, became excessive, poorly managed, or a combination of the two. Government officials insisted more money was needed to prop up the industry. Steel executives said the money flow was too heavy, and they had to put the money to work in real estate and the stock market."After the financial crisis, when the government released its stimulus, banks begged us to borrow money we didn't need," Li Huanhan, the owner of Shanghai Shunze Steel Trading, told a judge at a recent hearing. "We had nothing to do with the money, so we turned to other investments, like real estate."

China's answer to subprime bets (Reuters). [How long before we hear from a Chinese official that "subprime is contained?" - JS]  "Golden Elephant No. 38 is one of thousands of "wealth-management products", instruments aimed at monied investors, which have shown phenomenal growth over the last five years. Sales of them soared 43 percent in the first half of 2012 to 12.14 trillion yuan ($1.90 trillion), according to a report by CN Benefit, a Chinese wealth-management consultancy. They are usually created in China's "shadow banking" system – non-banking institutions that are not subject to the same regulations as banks – which has grown to account for around a fifth of all new financing in China. Like the subprime-debt lending spree in the United States that helped spark the 2008 financial crisis, the products are often opaque, and usually dependent on high-risk underlying assets, such as the Taihe housing project…"

China's ghost towns and phantom malls (BBC). [Malinvestment on anabolic steroids! - JS] "In Chenggong, there are more than 100,000 new apartments with no occupants," according to the World Bank's Holly Krambeck… Matteo Damiani, an Italian journalist who worked for seven years in Kunming, has visited Chenggong several times, photographing empty tower blocks that loom over gigantic plazas, peopled only by enormous works of art. He found a small community of students, workers and security guards but nobody else. "The suburbs and even the city centre are empty," he says. "You can find a big stadium, shopping malls and hundreds of buildings finished but abandoned."

Shadow Bankers Vanishing Leave China Victims Seeing Scams (Bloomberg). [Does China have its very own AIG, one wonders? Or thousands of miniature AIGs? - JS] "The shadow bankers are now disappearing, committing suicide or reneging on agreements, leaving thousands of victims in their wake. In the first half of the year, more than 58,000 lawsuits involving disputes over 28.4 billion yuan in private lending were filed in Zhejiang province, where Wenzhou is located, up 27 percent from the same period in 2011 and the most in five years, according to the provincial supreme court. One-fifth of the cases were in Wenzhou, where authorities have set up a special court to handle the surge."

As if all of the above were not enough, China is now fighting off a trade dispute with the United States – and threatening multiple kinds of war, trade and otherwise, with Japan:

One must wonder – why all the saber-rattling now? Why elevate the Senkaku Islands dispute now?

Could it be that heated protests flaring up all across China (some 85 cities at last count) are seen by the authorities as a useful distraction from increasingly severe economic problems?

How far will China go to distract the world (and the local populace) from its pending malinvestment-fueled implosion?

And none of this really touches on the rampant corruption factors present all throughout China's financial and political system, as John Hempton of Bronte Capital has argued via The Macroeconomics of Chinese Kleptocracy:

I start this analysis with China being a kleptocracy – a country ruled by thieves. That is a bold assertion – but I am going to have to assert it. People I know deep in the weeds (that is people who have to deal with the PRC and the children of the PRC elite) accept it. My personal experience is more limited but includes the following:

(a). The children and relatives of CPC Central Committee members are amongst the beneficiaries of the wave of stock fraud in the US,

(b). The response to the wave of stock fraud in the US and Hong Kong has not been to crack down on the perpetrators of the stock fraud (so to make markets work better). It has been tomake Chinese statutory accounts less available to make it harder to detect stock fraud.

(c). When given direct evidence of fraudulent accounts in the US filed by a large company with CPC family members as beneficiaries or management a big 4 audit firm will (possibly at the risk to their global franchise) sign the accounts knowing full well that they are fraudulent. The auditors (including and arguably especially the big four) are co-opted for the benefit of Chinese kleptocrats.

This however is only the beginning of Chinese fraud. China is a mafia state – and Bo Xilai is just a recent public manifestation…

The top down investing and trading implications here are massive, to put it mildly, starting with greatly increased probability that Michael Pettis' excellently reasoned argument for a soon-to-come collapse in hard commodity prices is on target.

If there is a credible counter-case as to how China will evade all the lessons of history, slip past its egregious mistakes unscathed, mimic the worst sins of the West while paying no penalties, and turn the essential tenets of free market economics upside down in doing so, we would love to hear what it is.

JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com)

p.s. Institutional allocator seeks talented traders and money managers. Potential allocation amount: $2 to $10 million. See if your track record qualifies...


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Japan 'Following Global Trend' on Monetary Policy

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 05:48 AM PDT

The spot gold price fell to $1,772 an ounce Wednesday morning in London, a few hours after hitting its highest level for nearly seven months after the Bank of Japan became the latest central bank to announce further quantitative easing measures.

Euro Debasement Seen Akin To Work Of Devil

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 05:28 AM PDT

Gold hit its highest level in 6-1/2 months today after Japan followed Europe and the USA in embarking on stimulus measures to boost its economy, increasing the safe haven's appeal as an inflation hedge.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Predator and Prey

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:56 AM PDT

from jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca:

In speaking of the fictitious nature of the efficiency of unfettered market capitalism and the reality of its extractive and ultimately self-destructive nature Karl Polanyi wrote:

"To allow the market mechanism to be sole director of the fate of human beings and their natural environment, indeed, even of the amount and use of purchasing power, would result in the demolition of society.

For the alleged commodity "labor power" cannot be shoved about, used indiscriminately, or even left unused, without affecting also the human individual who happens to be the bearer of this peculiar commodity. In disposing of a man's labor power the system would, incidentally, dispose of the physical, psychological, and moral entity "man" attached to that tag.

Robbed of the protective covering of cultural institutions, human beings would perish from the effects of social exposure; they would die as the victims of acute social dislocation through vice, perversion, crime, and starvation.

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Prepare for New ‘Currency Wars’ After QE3: Analyst

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:53 AM PDT

from cnbc.com:

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank's new rounds of quantitative easing could herald a new era of "currency wars", according to Bank of New York (BNY) Mellon research.

The dollar fell to a seven-month low against the yen and a four-month low against the euro last week after the Fed announced a new round of quantitative easing (QE3) on Thursday. Under the latest plan, the Fed will buy up $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month in order to stimulate the U.S. economy.

Adding insult to the greenback's injury on Friday, the ratings agency Egan-Jones cut the U.S. sovereign rating to AA-minus from AA, saying the Fed's QE3 would reduce the value of the dollar, rather than reduce national debt.

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Where is the Next Target of Gold Price?

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:50 AM PDT

The natural question to ask is when will gold price breach the year ago record high of $1,920? While no one can predict the timing, we do know that gold price has typically followed a consolidation pattern before breaking new highs.

A Game Changer For Gold

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:38 AM PDT

from jsmineset.com:

Dear CIGAs,

This is a major game changer. It has taken place in a West African gold miner. It speaks to certain African countries as excellent investments. It underscores that prediction of 12 years ago.

It screams at undervaluation. It is the recognition that gold mines mine money. This is a recognition of the dwindling supply side of gold. This is a recognition that gold is the only Honest Money. This is a recognition of gold's role in high tech.

The end of the bear market inflicted by the hedges on gold shares is absolutely over. The shorts in good gold shares after today are self destructively insane.

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Tungsten-Filled 10 Oz Gold Bar Found In The Middle Of Manhattan’s Jewelry District

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:37 AM PDT

from zerohedge.com:

It is one thing for tungsten-filled gold bars to appear in the UK, or in Germany: after all out of sight, and across the Atlantic, certainly must mean out of mind, and out of the safe. However, when a 10 ounce 999.9 gold bar bearing the stamp of the reputable Swiss Produits Artistiques Métaux Précieux (PAMP, with owner MTP) and a serial number (serial #038892, likely rehypothecated in at least 10 gold ETFs across the world but that's a different story), mysteriously emerges in the heart of the world's jewerly district located on 47th street in Manhattan, things get real quick. Moments ago, Myfoxny reported that a 10-ounce gold bar costing nearly $18,000 turned out to be a counterfeit. The discovery was made by the dealer Ibrahim Fadl, who bought the PAMP bar in question from a merchant who has sold him real gold before. "But he heard counterfeit gold bars were going around, so he drilled into several of his gold bars worth $100,000 and saw gray tungsten — not gold. The bar was filled with tungsten, which weighs nearly the same as gold but costs just over a dollar an ounce."

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Richard Russell – Life, The Markets & Gold

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 04:28 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

The Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had some absolutely extraordinary thoughts about life, the markets and gold. Here is what Russell had to say: "Most of the people in the world suffer from fear, anxiety, anger, guilt, bitterness, resentment, sorrow, depression, and various other emotions which can mar their lives. The majority of these emotions are holdovers from damaged or traumatic infancies."

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Brodsky and Quaintance: First Monetize Debts, Then Assets [a.k.a. Gold]

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

After doing little or nothing during Far East and early London trading, the gold price began to rally sharply right from the 8:20 a.m. Eastern time Comex open.  This happy state of affairs lasted until the London p.m. gold fix at 3:00 p.m. BST in London...10:00 a.m. in New York.

From there it traded sideways until 11:30 a.m. Eastern...and at that point a thoughtful seller sold in down about ten bucks going into the East Coast lunch hour.  From that low, a more subdued rally began that took gold back to almost its high tick of the day by 3:40 p.m. in electronic trading...and from there it traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. New York close.

Gold closed the Tuesday session at $1,771.10 spot...up $8.60 on the day. Net volume was pretty heavy at 166,000 contracts.

It was pretty much the same price path in silver...except the price was more 'volatile' than gold's.  Silver's low [around $33.95 spot] came about 3:30 p.m. Hong Kong time...about thirty minutes before the London open on their Tuesday trading session.

The rally in silver actually began about ten minutes before the Comex open...and as you can tell from the chart, it went vertical at the London gold fix...and that 'to the moon' rally was dispatched in the same old way.

After that, the silver price followed the gold price pattern very closely but, unlike gold, silver never got anywhere near its earlier high tick of $35.17 spot. Silver had an intraday price move of over a dollar.

Silver closed the electronic trading session in New York at $34.78 spot...up 53 cents.  Net volume was a monstrous 63,000 contracts.

If you check the platinum chart and palladium chart from yesterday, you'll see a couple of waterfall price declines in those metals that I certainly wouldn't wish on either gold or silver...but I'm psychologically prepared for it if JPMorgan et al pull their bids in these metals like they did in platinum and palladium yesterday around 11:40 a.m. Eastern time.

Here's the platinum chart as a 'for instance'...

The dollar index spent the Tuesday trading session gaining 25 basis points by the 5:30 p.m. Eastern time close.  The index peaked at 79.27 around 2:40 p.m. Eastern, before settling back into the close and finishing at 79.19.

The stocks opened in slightly negative territory, but peaked just before the London p.m. gold fix.  From there, they spent the rest of Tuesday chopping around the unchanged mark, but finally rallied a bit starting around 2:40 p.m. Eastern...the dollar index high tick...finishing virtually on their highs of the day.  The HUI finished up 0.65%.

With the odd exception, most silver equities finished in positive territory yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 1.58%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Comex Daily Delivery Report showed that only 3 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday.

GLD added another 58,170 troy ounces of gold to their stash yesterday...and there were no reported changes in SLV.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank, for the period ending September 17th, they reported adding 32,822 troy ounces of gold to their gold ETF...but their silver ETF showed a decline of 409,119 ounces.

The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report.  They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 25,000 silver eagles.

The did not receive any silver over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, but shipped a very chunky 1,287,912 troy ounces of the stuff out the door.  Virtually the entire withdrawal came out of Scotia Mocatta...and the link to that activity is here.

Here's a chart that reader Scott Pluschau sent me yesterday...and I thought it would look good here.  The 'click to enlarge' feature would be of some use if you want a more detailed look.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have the usual number of stories for you today...and I hope you can find the time to read all the ones that interest you.  There are a couple of must reads that you shouldn't miss.

It was another case of gold and silver doing well up until they got hit at the London p.m. gold fix.
The New York Sun: The miser's tragedy. Pierre Lassonde: The State of the Gold Bull Market. Fake 10 oz. Gold Bar Turn Up in Manhattan. Nick Barisheff - Gold is Really Going to $10,000 Per Ounce.

Critical Reads

Chicago Fed laments 'out-of-control' algorithms

Regulators must impose new restrictions on high-speed trading firms to limit "out-of-control" mathematical algorithms after a number of technology-related snafus have hurt investor confidence, says a recent Chicago Federal Reserve study.

The report said that industry and regulators have articulated "best practices" for risk controls, but many trading firms fail to implement all the recommendations or rely on other firms to catch an "out-of-control" algorithm or problem trade.

The report, which was released on Monday, comes after NYSE Euronext  was fined by the Securities and Exchange Commission last week over allegations that it gave market data to some clients faster than others.  It also follows the loss by investment firm Knight Capital Group Inc. last month of $440 million based on erroneous trades caused by a software malfunction, bringing the firm to the brink of bankruptcy.

This marketwatch.com story was posted on their website early yesterday afternoon...and I thank Scott Pluschau for our first story of the day.  The link is here.

Matt Taibbi: A Rare Look at Why The Government Won't Fight Wall Street

The great mystery story in American politics these days is why, over the course of two presidential administrations (one from each party), there's been no serious federal criminal investigation of Wall Street during a period of what appears to be epic corruption. People on the outside have speculated and come up with dozens of possible reasons, some plausible, some tending toward the conspiratorial – but there have been very few who've come at the issue from the inside.

We get one of those rare inside accounts in The Payoff: Why Wall Street Always Wins, a new book by Jeff Connaughton, the former aide to Senators Ted Kaufman and Joe Biden. Jeff is well known to reporters like me; during a period when most government officials double-talked or downplayed the Wall Street corruption problem, Jeff was one of the few voices on the Hill who always talked about the subject with appropriate alarm. He shared this quality with his boss Kaufman, the Delaware Senator who took over Biden's seat and instantly became an irritating (to Wall Street) political force by announcing he wasn't going to run for re-election. "I later learned from reporters that Wall Street was frustrated that they couldn't find a way to harness Ted or pull in his reins," Jeff writes. "There was no obvious way to pressure Ted because he wasn't running for re-election."

Kaufman for some time was a go-to guy in the Senate for reform activists and reporters who wanted to find out what was really going on with corruption issues. He was a leader in a number of areas, attempting to push through (often simple) fixes to issues like high-frequency trading (his advocacy here looked prescient after the "flash crash" of 2010), naked short-selling, and, perhaps most importantly, the Too-Big-To-Fail issue. What's fascinating about Connaughton's book is that we now get to hear a behind-the-scenes account of who exactly was knocking down simple reform ideas, how they were knocked down, and in some cases we even find out why good ideas were rejected, although some element of mystery certainly remains here.

This piece by Matt is basically a book review, but gives you an indication of how the best of intentions of reining in Wall Street end up on the rocks.  It's possible that the reason that the silver price management scheme has not ended, falls into this book's pervue as well.  It's worth reading...and I thank Ulrike Marx for bringing it to our attention.  It's posted over at the Rolling Stone magazine Internet site...and the link is here.

Peregrine's Wasendorf pleads guilty, will remain in jail

Russell Wasendorf Sr., founder of the bankrupt commodities firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc., pleaded guilty to stealing more than $100 million from its customers.

On Monday, Wasendorf, 64, admitted to embezzlement, mail fraud and two counts of lying to federal regulators in an appearance before U.S. Magistrate Judge Jon Scoles in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

In response to the judge's direct questions, Wasendorf replied "guilty" to each of the four counts. He made no other comment.

The plea agreement calls for a prison sentence of as long as 50 years.

This story was posted on the Futures Magazine website on Monday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it.  The link is here.

Obama wins right to indefinitely detain Americans under NDAA

A lone appeals judge bowed down to the Obama administration late Monday and reauthorized the White House's ability to indefinitely detain American citizens without charge or due process.

Last week, a federal judge ruled that an temporary injunction on section 1021 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 must be made permanent, essentially barring the White House from ever enforcing a clause in the NDAA that can let them put any US citizen behind bars indefinitely over mere allegations of terrorist associations. On Monday, the US Justice Department asked for an emergency stay on that order, and hours later US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Judge Raymond Lohier agreed to intervene and place a hold on the injunction.

The stay will remain in effect until at least September 28, when a three-judge appeals court panel is expected to begin addressing the issue.

On December 31, 2011, US President Barack Obama signed the NDAA into law, even though he insisted on accompanying that authorization with a statement explaining his hesitance to essentially eliminate habeas corpus for the American people.

Ironically, this story was posted over on the Russia Today website yesterday...and is an absolute must read.  I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and the link is here.

Millions 'missing' in wake of Swedish cash firm bankruptcy

Several Swedish retailers face closing down after hundreds of millions of kronor have disappeared in connection with the bankruptcy of secure cash transport firm Panaxia, responsible for transferring their takings.

Panaxia filed for bankruptcy in the beginning of September. The company had struggled to keep afloat after two top managers were charged for fraud and the company had made a loss of quarter of a billion kronor. Despite efforts to keep the company running, the board filed for bankruptcy on September 5th.

Two days after the bankruptcy, Panaxia's board contacted the Economic Crime Authority saying that large sums of money seemed to have disappeared from a company account.

This story showed up late yesterday evening on the Swedish website thelocal.se...and I thank Gothenburg, Sweden reader Glenn Elvesund for sliding it into my in-box just before I hit the 'send' button.  The link is here.

Greek judges stop work to protest austerity

Greek judges went on strike on Monday, kicking of a series of walkouts by state employees ranging from doctors to tax officials in protest at wage cuts and labor reforms demanded by international lenders in exchange for more aid.

Judges were hearing only cases nearing the statute of limitations and are expected to continue their labor action throughout this week, potentially delaying thousands of cases waiting to be heard by the already overstretched legal system.

"We are determined to defend our current wages," the judges' associations said in a statement. "We won't tolerate the downgrading of the judges."

Judges say they have already seen their salaries reduced by as much as 38 percent and have warned that relentless pay cuts were putting their constitutional position as guarantors of the court system under threat.

This Reuters story, filed from Athens late Monday morning Eastern time, was something I borrowed from yesterday's edition of the King Report...and the link is here.

IMF to Put Argentina on Path to Censure Over Inflation Data

Argentina is on track to be the first country ever censured by the International Monetary Fund for not sharing accurate data about inflation and the economy.

The IMF's board of directors, meeting yesterday in Washington, gave the country until Dec. 17 to respond to concerns about the quality of its official data, it said today in an e-mailed statement. If the deadline is missed, the board can issue a declaration of censure, a warning that has never been used and which means sanctions may be applied if the concerns aren't addressed.

"The Executive Board regretted the lack of sufficient progress in implementing the remedial measures since its Feb. 1, 2012, meeting and expressed to the authorities its concern that Argentina has not brought itself into compliance with its obligations," according to the statement. The board "took note of the ongoing dialogue between the IMF and the authorities regarding the measures, and called on Argentina to implement the measures without delay."

This story showed up on the Bloomberg website early yesterday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for digging it up on our behalf.  The link is here...and it's definitely worth reading.

India's CPI inflation up at 10.03%

The annual consumer price inflation based on all India general Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August on point to point basis rose to 10.03%, according to government data released on Tuesday.

The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas are 9.90 % and 10.19 % respectively.

Inflation rates (final) for rural, urban and combined for July 2012 are 9.76 %, 10.10 % and 9.86% respectively.

This very short story was posted on the indiablooms.com Internet site very late on Tuesday night India Standard Time.  I thank Mumbai reader Avinash Raheja for sending it along...and the link is here.

Anti-Japanese fury erupts in China on invasion anniversary

The 81st anniversary of Imperial Japan's invasion of China has sparked a fresh wave of anti-Japanese protests. Relations between the Asian nations deteriorated after Japanese activists landed on disputed islands in the midst of a territorial row.

Thousands of angry protesters gathered outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing brandishing banners with patriotic slogans. They threw water bottles and shouted anti-Japanese chants, reminiscent of wartime enmity between the two countries.

"I came here so our islands will not be invaded by Japan," said Wang. "We believe we need to declare war on them because the Japanese devils are too evil. Down with little Japan!" shouted Wang Guoming, a 38-year-old retired soldier

Across China many Japanese businesses have been forced to close

The New York Sun: The miser's tragedy

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

Reflecting on the likely claim by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service on the estimated $7 million in gold found in the garage of a Nevada man who died with only $200 in the bank, The New York Sun notes the injustice of mistaking mere inflation for capital gains. Gold and silver, the Sun argues, are money in themselves and should not be taxed just because their measure, some other currency, devalues.

I borrowed the headline, plus the above paragraph of introduction, from a GATA release yesterday. This very short editorial is headlined "The Miser's Tragedy" and it's posted here...and it's worth reading...especially if you are an American citizen.

Pierre Lassonde: The State of the Gold Bull Market

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

This is Pierre's speech that he gave at the Denver Gold Forum on 10 September 2012.  The video presentation runs for 21:47...and is worth watching if you have the time...and I thank reader Steve Lilly for finding it for us.

read more

Fed’s ‘QE-Infinity’ Will Push Gold Up to $2,400

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

In one of the most bullish gold calls since the Federal Reserve announced a new round of easing last week, one strategist sees a 36 percent jump in the metal's price, to $2,400 an ounce, by the end of 2014.

"The new target reflects our view that the Fed will maintain mortgage purchases until the end of 2014 and will move to buy Treasuries following the end of Operation Twist this coming December," wrote Francisco Blanch, a global investment strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note to clients Tuesday.

"Given the new open-ended nature of QE3, the upward pressure on gold prices should continue until employment is strong enough to require a change in policy," Blanch added. "In our view, this is unlikely to happen until the end of 2014."

read more

Brodsky and Quaintance: First monetize debts, then assets (aka gold)

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

Harvard University's graduates are earning less than those from the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology after a decade-long commodity bull market created shortages of workers as well as minerals.

Those leaving the college of 2,300 students this year got paid a median salary of $56,700, according to PayScale Inc., which tracks employee compensation data from surveys. At Harvard, where tuition fees are almost four times higher, they got $54,100. Those scheduled to leave the campus in Rapid City, South Dakota, in May are already getting offers, at a time when about one in 10 recent U.S. college graduates is out of work.

read more

Financial Survival Network: Nick Barisheff - Gold Is Really Going to $10,000 Per Ounce

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

In this interview with Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network. Nick Barisheff discusses the gold price spike in the wake of the US QE3. It's part of an irreversible trend, including the aging and retiring baby boomers, less availability of inexpensive oil and the declining employment trend. Taken together this means that inflation and gold are going way up. Nick believes that the only defense against this massive wealth destruction event is buying gold and silver.

The audio interview is posted over at the bmgbullion.com Internet site...and it's definitely worth listening to.  The interview runs about 15 minutes...and the link is here.

Fake 10 oz. Gold Bar Turn Up in Manhattan

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

In jewelry stores on 47th Street and Fifth Avenue the important trust between merchants has been violated. A 10-ounce gold bar costing nearly $18,000 turned out to be a counterfeit.

Ibrahim Fadl bought the bar from a merchant who has sold him real gold before. But he heard counterfeit gold bars were going around, so he drilled into several of his gold bars worth $100,000 and saw gray tungsten -- not gold.

MTB, the Swiss manufacturer of the gold bar, said customers should buy only from a reputable merchant. The problem, he admits, is Ibrahim Fadl is a very reputable merchant.

read more

Buying gold and silver coins in India just a mouse click away

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 03:21 AM PDT

The Muthoot group, India's 125-year-old non-banking financial major, has launched a 'Muthoot Group Apps' for Apple, iOS and Android smartphones and tablets users across India. The app will provide the prevailing rates for gold and silver and for various currencies. Users can buy gold and silver coins offered by the Muthoot Precious Metals Corporation.

Alexander George Muthoot, managing director at Muthoot Group said, "Our endeavour is to provide everyone with new and innovative ways to manage their financial investments. Being a customer driven segment, we are always looking for new mediums to connect with people."

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