Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Breaks Range Only to Snap Back
- Historic coin collectors strike gold
- Max Velocity: Moving by Vehicle in High Threat Environments
- Weak traders out, hedge funds and commercials struggle over gold, Norcini says
- Silver Update 9/26/12 Austerity Riots
- Gold & Central Banks Fearful Of A Depression
- Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble
- Key Comex Dates for Gold and Silver To Year End
- Chicago Fed Asks "What Are Asset Bubbles" As Its President Calls For Even More QE
- More Incredibly Important Developments In The Gold Market
- The Miraculous Decoupling Of Reality, For Now
- Special Vulture Bargain Update for September 26, 2012 Posted
- Is A Gold Standard Possible?
- Silver and the Myth of Diminishing Returns From QE
- Where Will the Hoards Go?
- QE3, SPR Release and Gasoline Prices
- FX Concepts' John Taylor Will Always Be A EUR Bear
- The Gold Price Broke Support and Fell $13.20 to $1,750.60 Great Opportunity to Buy Gold On Sale
- Maranda Gold–Another Explorer With Good Prospects 26.Sept.12
- Post Correction, The Upside For Gold & Silver Is Enormous
- South African Strikes Halt 39% of Nation’s Gold Output
- Gold Holds As Equity Dead-Cat-Bounce Folds
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Turns It Around - Gold Options Expiration - Ted Butler
- QE3 triggers fear of new currency wars
- iNflation: Americans Spend Less On Food, Movies To Pay For Soaring Cell Phone Obsession
- Death Knells for the USDollar
- LGMR: "Buy the Dips" in Gold & Silver Advise Bank Analysts as South Africa's Mining Strikes Spread
- Its in Your Own Best Interest to Learn Just How Bad America?s Debt Problem Is ? So Read On!
- Gold Will Break Previous High in Near Term
| Gold Breaks Range Only to Snap Back Posted: 27 Sep 2012 12:04 AM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com September 26, 2012 02:33 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT “The decline from the high in gold is impulsive (5 waves) but that decline could just as well complete a flat. As such, it is best to refrain from the short side until a drop below last week’s low (1752). A drop below would shift to 1715 and probably quickly given the crowded nature of this market.” Today’s action is indicative of a market that was too crowded as those late to the game got stopped out only to see the market snap back and close at the former lows. A test of 1715/25 can’t be ruled out as long as price is below 1775 (spot prices) but Wednesday’s intraday action is more suggestive of consolidation before upside continuation. LEVELS: 1687 1715 1735 1755 1765 1775... | ||
| Historic coin collectors strike gold Posted: 27 Sep 2012 12:00 AM PDT Customer interest in historic coins has been sparked by recent issues of products celebrating the Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Max Velocity: Moving by Vehicle in High Threat Environments Posted: 26 Sep 2012 11:00 PM PDT by Max Velocity, SHTFPlan:
The intent of this article is to act as an introduction with some thoughts and primers for moving your family or group in high threat environments. It is not intended to give all the answers and that would be beyond the scope of this short piece. The type of environment envisioned is a post-collapse situation where there has been a breakdown in law and order. To clarify, this article is not concerned with the sort of 'bug-out' movement that families may conduct in response to a localized natural disaster, where you have to get in your car with some basic equipment and move out of the impacted area. Rather, this is directed at those who find they have to move locations after a significant societal collapse has happened. As background it is clear that to read the conventional prepper wisdom to survive any coming apocalypse you need to be in a fortified self-sustaining retreat somewhere out in the boonies, with three years of food in the basement and the ability to grow food plus animals. This is the gold standard; you will be really well positioned if that is where you are with your preparations. The reality for many is that they simply do not have that. For whatever reason, they may be in an urban or suburban environment. They may have nowhere else to realistically 'bug out' to. They may have a goal to achieve the retreat, but not be there yet, or have bug out land that is fairly basic and requires them to move to it following a collapse. So there may be a reality gap between those that have achieved the gold standard of location and preparations, and those that are not there yet. What I am really concerned about here is a collapse of society, the veritable 'TEOTWAWKI', where it all goes to chaos, the 'SHTF'. | ||
| Weak traders out, hedge funds and commercials struggle over gold, Norcini says Posted: 26 Sep 2012 10:35 PM PDT 12:26a ET Thursday, September 27, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Futures market analyst Dan Norcini tells King World News tonight that weak hands were flushed out of gold futures this week, leaving the struggle between commercial traders and hedge funds. Norcini is encouraged by the strength shown by gold mining shares, which, he says, are now leading the metal itself. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/26_Mo... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold. Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order. GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum Intercepts Best Pt+Pd+Au Grades Yet Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) announces more results of its 2012 drill program on the company's fully-owned Wellgreen platinum group metals, nickel, and copper project in southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada. Four surface holes and four underground holes all intercepted significant mineralized widths, ranging from 28.5 meters (WS12-201) and up to 459.5 metres (WS12-193). Highlights include WU12-540, which returned 8.9 metres of 5.36 grams per tonne platinum, palladium, and gold; 1.73 percent copper; and 1.01 percent nickel within 304.5 meters of 0.66 g/t platinum-palladium-gold, 0.20 percent copper, and 0.27 percent nickel. The surface drill program started in June and has completed 16 holes (assays pending for 12 holes) with two rigs now on site. The surface program continues to progress at a steady pace. Prophecy Chairman John Lee commented: "Wellgreen is a very large nickel, copper, and platinum group metals project with near-surface high-grade zones. High-grade intercepts will be incorporated into resource modeling and mine planning in the pre-feasibility study. We expect further positive drill results from Wellgreen shortly." Wellgreen features a low 2.59-to-1 strip ratio, is situated at an altitude of 1,300 meters, and is only 15 kilometers from the two-lane paved Alaska Highway. Those factors significantly minimize the project's indirect costs. For the complete company statement with full tabulation of the drilling results, please visit: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_sep11_prophecy_platinum_drill_results.... | ||
| Silver Update 9/26/12 Austerity Riots Posted: 26 Sep 2012 09:56 PM PDT | ||
| Gold & Central Banks Fearful Of A Depression Posted: 26 Sep 2012 09:00 PM PDT from KingWorldNews:
Today legendary Pierre Lassonde startled King World News by warning, "When you talk about the worldwide slowdown, the central banks are worried about a depression, and that's why they are printing all of that money." KWN has been reporting for some time now that the global economy has been rolling over, but Lassonde took it a step further. Lassonde is arguably the greatest company builder in the history of the mining sector. He is past President of Newmont Mining, past Chairman of the World Gold Council and current Chairman of Franco Nevada. Lassonde is one of the wealthiest, most respected individuals in the resource world, so we take his warning very seriously. But first, Lassonde had a great deal to say about the gold market: "I was very surprised in the summer that gold didn't break the $1,500 level. I say that because Europe is really going into a recession, and I felt the lows were going to be breaking the $1,500 (level). But you know what saved the gold market? The central banks." | ||
| Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble Posted: 26 Sep 2012 08:44 PM PDT | ||
| Key Comex Dates for Gold and Silver To Year End Posted: 26 Sep 2012 08:00 PM PDT from Jesse's Café Américain:
In addition to the end of quarter mark to market boogie woogie, which I think is responsible for quite a bit of the stock market action, there are also a few key things happening in the gold and silver futures markets this week that also provide the occasion for some 'technical trading.' Harvey Organ reminds us that the metals often get 'hit' as an active month rolls over, to discourage speculators from taking delivery on their contracts. This is often marked by the 'first notice day.' In the short term the markets are a bit treacherous because of the lack of enforcement of the basic rules that govern healthy markets. In the longer term these things tend to become just noise. Pick whatever time frames you wish, but know the character of the markets in which you choose to participate. Also bear in mind that during times of excessive market speculation because of hot money and lax regulation, information sources are often used and even co-opted to help to shape 'perceptions.' This may even be unconscious if the information provider does not view stories that are offered with a skeptical eye. | ||
| Chicago Fed Asks "What Are Asset Bubbles" As Its President Calls For Even More QE Posted: 26 Sep 2012 07:40 PM PDT Readers may know the Chicago Fed best for its president: arguably the greatest dove in the history of central banking, Charles Evans, for whom QEternity is so insufficient, it is just the beginning, and he is already looking forward to QEternity∞. In fact, just today he reiterated his support for QE3 for the second time since the program's announcement on Thursday the 13th (a day which will live in infamy), saying the recovery has so far been so "disappointing" (which at least means one can safely ignore all those pundits who claimed over the past 3 years the economy was growing, so roughly 99% of them) that the Fed should do "even more."
Essentially, Evans, and the Chicago Fed, are explicitly stating that the Fed's actions instead of making the situation far more dire (which they have as we showed on Sunday when we demonstrated the ongoing massive deleveraging in the shadow banking system as a result of a total loss of confidence in a Fed-free economy, forcing the Fed to do ever more QE), are improving it. So far so good. But where it gets scary is that just today, the same Fed, which is so sure about the affirmative impact of its actions, asks "what are asset price bubbles" (answer: always and without fail the direct effect of ultra loose monetary policy combined with unleashed animal spirits, but what do we know: we have no Econ PhD), confirming it has no clue what the adverse consequences of monetary policy are. And this is the Fed - one which does not grasp the very simple nature of asset bubbles in a fiat world - that is saying Bernanke should print until he literally runs out of toner cartridge. Why whatever can possibly go wrong? It gets better. The paper acknowledges that "For at least the past 25 years, the Federal Reserve has tended to follow an approach to asset bubble management in which there is little or no restrictive monetary policy action during the bubble’s formation and growth, but there is a prompt easing in the form of quick reductions in market interest rates once the bubble bursts." In other words the Fed is perfectly happy to have its policies result in something known as an asset bubble, which the same Fed admits it can't quantify, but not intervene until the entire economy is on the verge of collapse and then to literally throw the kitchen sink at the problem, an epic misconception which is at the basis of Bernanke's statement that he can cure inflation "in 15 minutes." We also learn something rather amusing about this Fed policy, subsequently known, appropriately enough as the Jackson Hole Consensus: "The intellectual foundation for this approach was the seminal piece by Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler (originally published in 1999)." In other words, years before his infamous 'helicopter" paper, Bernanke was already espousing the free blowing of bubbles, consequences be damned. Here is where it gets fun: the paper next admits: "The Jackson Hole Consensus appeared to work well until September 2008, when the financial system came close to a complete meltdown." Without say so directly, the Chicago Fed, which recall does not know what asset price bubbles are, implicitly admitted that it was the Chairman's own ideology which led to the epic crash that nearly wiped out the financial markets of the "developed" world, and has since pushed the world into the greater depression ever seen, one only offset so far courtesy of the ever greater risk, expected to hit $5 trillion by the end of 2014, that the Fed has onboarded on its own balance sheet. In essence the Fed has become the biohazard repository of only resort. It is this biohazard that is somehow expected to find willing buyers when the time to crash the market, i.e., tighten comes. There are many more pearl of wisdom in the paper, some of which are the following:
And so on. But the punchline is this:
And this coming from the same Fed, whose president concurrently said more QE is needed, i.e., even bigger bubbles need to be blow. Is there, thus, any wonder why nobody has any faith left in the US economy, and why everyone is convinced that the next epic market collapse, when the next bubble bursts, may very well be the final (hopefully this should go some way to explaining the age old question: why are there $2 trillion in cash on the sidelines and why do corporations have zero faith in the economy, and the market, and are unwilling to invest any cash in either capex or hiring). Full Chicago Fed paper: "Asset price bubbles: What are the causes, consequences, and public policy options?" | ||
| More Incredibly Important Developments In The Gold Market Posted: 26 Sep 2012 06:52 PM PDT Today King World News is reporting on important developments taking place in the gold market. Acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN that many of the small speculators have now been "flushed out" of gold. Norcini has been stunningly accurate in his predictions of the movement of the gold and silver markets. Now the acclaimed trader discusses the latest important developments in gold: "As I mentioned over the weekend, the small specs were at a record level in terms of their long positions, but the important thing is many of them had bought near the top of the market when the bullish enthusiasm for QE3 was at its peak." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| The Miraculous Decoupling Of Reality, For Now Posted: 26 Sep 2012 06:14 PM PDT Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com A veritable chorus of large US corporations has chopped their forecasts down a few sizes, citing the China slowdown, wobbly demand from emerging markets, the ongoing fiasco in Europe, or weakness in the US. Among the usual bellwether suspects: Caterpillar raised eyebrows on Monday when it lamented “fairly anemic” global growth and a slowdown in China, not just for the quarter or the year, but through 2015. FedEx cut its outlook on September 18 due to lower shipping volumes and a shaky global economy. On September 7, Intel slashed its third-quarter revenue outlook, ominously on weakness in the enterprise segment and in emerging markets. On August 30, the International Air Transport Association announced that July air-freight was down 3.2% worldwide from last year. And in July, UPS lowered its guidance. But you wouldn’t know it from the stock markets, which are supposed to predict future turns in the economy better than any other measure, based on the collective wisdom of innumerable astute market participants—or rather computers, algos, and fat fingers. The S&P 500, for example, is up 22% over the last 12 months. A phenomenal run. And so today, the Business Roundtable (BRT), an association of CEOs from the largest US corporations, made an ugly trend much uglier: CEOs believe the next six months are going to be tough; and they’re reacting to it by slashing capital expenditures and jobs. The BRT CEO Economic Outlook Index plunged to 66 in the third quarter, from 89.1 in the second quarter. That was not only “the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009,” when the US economy was still in the trough of the Great Recession, but also “the third largest single quarter drop in the survey’s history.” And the largest drop? From 78.8 in Q3 2008 to 16.5 in Q4 2008. Off a cliff. These CEOs were caught off guard by the financial crisis, ensconced in their own hunky-dory world. Incredibly, the index had edged up from 74.5 in the prior quarter even though the financial crisis had been making headlines for a year, the housing bubble had blown up, financial institutions were cracking for all to see, and Bear Stearns had already collapsed. These CEOs have zero predictive capabilities. From its recent peak in Q1 2011 of 113, it has been a steep and bumpy slide to today’s 66. Above 50 in this diffusion index means growth, so 66 is still in positive territory, if barely so. The three sub-indices—sales, capital expenditures, and employment—didn’t help. In the sales index, 58% of the CEOs expected sales to increase over the next six months, down from 75% in the prior quarter. A low number: six months after the Bear Stearns collapse, and just before the collapse of Lehman and AIG, 78.8% of our prescient CEOs had expected sales to grow—only to see them nosedive weeks later. The index for capital expenditures was worse: only 30% of the CEOs said they would increase capital expenditures, down from an already low 43% in the second quarter. The lowest score since Q3 2009—when the world was scrambling to get out of the trough of the Great Recession. The employment index took the biggest hit: only 29% expected to create jobs, down from 36% in Q2; but 34% expected to cut jobs, a jump from 20% in Q2. Hence, more CEOs are planning job cuts than job increases. For a worse figure, you have to go back to Q4 2009—when the unemployment rate hit 10%! These trends “reflect global demand flattening out, particularly in Europe and China,” said BRT Chairman and Boeing CEO Jim McNerney during the news conference. On top of that are “domestic policy issues” that could have “negative impact on the economy and business climate,” he added, including the fiscal-cliff of tax increases, spending cuts, and a failure to raise the debt ceiling. That uncertainty throws “cold water on long-term planning.” That the CEO Economic Outlook Index evokes the dark days of double-digit unemployment is not a particularly good sign. It crowns a pile of slashed forecasts from bellwether companies. The old-fashioned among us would expect stock markets to have anticipated that corporate downdraft. But that hasn’t happened. If QE, QE2, QE3, the bubbly expectations of QE4, and of course QEx have accomplished anything [read... “Forceful and Timely Action” to Nowhere], it is the miraculous decoupling of the stock markets from reality. Gravity can be turned off, apparently, in this new QE world of ours where no one has gone before. But then, gravity has the nasty habit of reasserting itself at the worst possible moment. John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics is a bit jittery too. Republicans and Democrats will have to hold hands and walk off the cliff together, he says; and Europe is only left with choices that range from bad to disastrous. And yet, there are possibilities. Read the excellent interview.... John Mauldin’s Prescription for Avoiding Economic Catastrophe. | ||
| Special Vulture Bargain Update for September 26, 2012 Posted Posted: 26 Sep 2012 05:08 PM PDT Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please log in to the password-protected GGR subscriber pages for an important Vulture Bargain Update posted today, Wednesday, September 26, 2012. We share an interesting new presentation from one of our fully fledged Vulture Bargain companies. To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership | ||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2012 04:26 PM PDT From Deutsche Bank's Daniel Brebner: A Future Gold Standard? A common theme in discussing the gold market is the prospect for a new gold standard in the future. That such a topic is now common says much about the change in attitudes by investors, many who would have ridiculed the mere mention of such a thing as little as five years ago. It also, perhaps, gives a hint as to the desperation of investors in their search for assets which they believe may protect their wealth over the long-term, a period which may experience more than its fair share of event risk. If gold were to regain its crown as the primary medium of exchange it would dramatically change the way that governments manage their economies – which some would say is a good thing given the results of their management skills thus far. Nevertheless, the imposition of a gold standard would limit the ability of government to affect the supply of money in the economy. The supply of money would rest entirely with the volume of gold holdings that a country would possess and grow in line with its trade balances plus domestic gold production (depending on domestic resources and whether these resources in fact became state property – which we expect should be of consideration). Why it can work Many economists shudder at the notion of a gold standard; this is understandable given the school of thought to which most adhere: Keynesian or Keynesian derivative. Keynes saw flexible monetary policy as an important tool in optimising an economy. Gold ostensibly removes this flexibility – and was therefore derided as a 'barbarous relic' by Keynes himself. In fact we agree that during certain periods of extreme economic imbalance, such as the Great Depression, substantial monetary flexibility may be required. Most economists see the great problem of gold as twofold: 1) there is insufficient supply and 2) there is insufficient supply growth. The first argument is spurious. The volume of gold is not important; instead it is the value that is ascribed to this gold that is important. A zero can easily be added to a paper bill to change its value; similarly it can be added to the value of an ounce of gold. Absolute values are in fact unimportant. As we have already asserted, gold is infinitely divisible. Does it matter that a paper bill is backed by a gram or a kilogram of gold? Theoretically it shouldn't matter in our view. The second argument, in addition to being fallacious, shows a certain lack of humility. In order to achieve reasonable price stability within a growing economy money supply also needs to grow. The critical question is, how fast. The rate is important, grow the money supply too quickly and inflation results, too slowly and deflation is the consequence (assuming money velocity is constant in both situations). We believe there are two key elements which are needed to approach an appropriate rate of money supply growth. The first: population growth – as the number of users of money changes, a money supply adjustment is needed to prevent the distortions in pricing that this would create. The second: unleveraged productivity – an estimate of the increase in per capita productivity (or value creation) that a society experiences over time – without the assistance of credit growth. We start by using general metrics for economic activity. There are several, including GDP and trade figures. The difficulty however is stripping out the impact of significant credit growth on these figures to get the genuine, unassisted, growth for a specific economy. For example, over the past 32 years real US GDP has averaged 2.7% (CAGR). Over the same time frame the US population has grown by 1.1% on average. On this basis average US GDP growth after a population adjustment is around 1.6%. Of this rate, what has been the debt contribution to growth? If, to keep things simple, we assume that credit has contributed roughly 0.5% per year, this leaves an average 1.1% per annum increase in value or productivity for the US. For this reason we believe that humility is a necessity – there is considerable evidence to suggest that the impressive growth rates and productivity advances experienced over the past several decades have been temporarily boosted by the assumption of unprecedented quantities of debt, on a global level. Perhaps we are not the geniuses we think ourselves to be. On this basis our expectation would be that the US would need to grow its monetary base by only about 2.2% or so. Long-term gold supply growth trends show a CAGR of 1.6%. While this is close to the necessary 2.2% rate needed to avoid deflationary pressure, it could still be asource of concern for those looking at gold as a viable currency alternative. However this need not invalidate gold as a preferred medium of exchange for while volume growth may remain a challenge, the exact value is still determinable by government – in fact periodic valuation adjustments for gold could conceivably be an ongoing option. Thus a low growth rate in gold volumes could be offset by a small revaluation of the metal itself, thereby preventing deflationary price pressure in an economy. The problem with the above solution for gold's apparent excessive scarcity is that it puts government monetary policy makers back in a position whereby they can misprice money with consequential capital distortions a possibility. This is something that market purists would rather not see, but may make a transition to gold more palatable for those accustomed to the flexibility that a fiat currency affords. Why it probably won't While a gold standard could work, we remain sceptical that it will be considered (barring a serious financial crisis, perhaps associated with highly volatile inflation). In large part we blame the low probability on culture. The world economy has, over the past century, morphed into a highly integrated, government dominated system guided by conventional wisdom (group think). The self-reliant, individualism of the free market has been left behind in favour of a 'new age' of coddled consumerism. Culturally this represents a very powerful force in our view, one which minimises creative options/solutions to economic impasses. On this basis we are cautious of predicting such a radical solution to monetary imbalances. | ||
| Silver and the Myth of Diminishing Returns From QE Posted: 26 Sep 2012 04:23 PM PDT | ||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2012 04:21 PM PDT September 26, 2012 [LIST] [*]Honduras' cojones: one experiment "to be the most economically free entity on Earth"... [*]Spain sticks another foot in the grave... riots in South Africa... gold production cut by 39%... [*]The U.S. "economy doesn't run on corn" (but close!)... why the word "bubble" doesn't mean anything anymore... [*]Patrick Cox's flu drug makes big waves... Indian clothing store named after evil... The 5 sits idly as one reader vents... why we're still thinking about manufacturing... and more! [/LIST] "The future will remember this day as that day that Honduras began developing," says MKG Group CEO Michael Strong,. "We believe this will be one of the most important transformations in the world, through which Honduras will end poverty by creating thousands of jobs. "Our goal is to be the most economically free entity on Earth." We're thankful a reader brought a Fox News report on the U.S. development firm to our attent... | ||
| QE3, SPR Release and Gasoline Prices Posted: 26 Sep 2012 04:14 PM PDT
By EconMatters
With crude oil accounting for 65% of the price of gasoline, there's typically a high correlation between the price of oil and gasoline. However, there's been a disconnect between the two for the most part of this year. The main reason for the disconnect is the divergence of supply market fundamentals.
As the two charts below illustrate, while domestic crude oil supply remains way above the 5-year average, the gasoline supply is actually a lot tighter by historical norm, primarily due to some domestic unscheduled refinery accidents/outages, refinery closures in the Atlantic Basin leading to an increase in gasoline exports from the US.
To make things worse, on top of the already tight domestic gasoline supply, Fed picked a nice "political" timing to launch its infinite QE3. On September 13, 2012, Helicopter Ben has pledged an open-ended $40 billion a month MBS bond purchasing program, while holding the fed funds rate near zero at least through mid-2015.
The likely eventual consequence of this unlimited money printing operation – Dollar debase and the artificial price inflation of almost everything from commodities (including Oil and Gasoline) to stocks, and consumers end up paying the price.
For now, Brent dropped 4.5% last week, while U.S. WTI crude also lost 6.2%. Oil has been held down primarily by slowing global economic growth and the dismal demand outlook.
Meanwhile, the national average gasoline price also saw a nickel a gallon decrease from a week ago, according to the AAA automobile club. Nevertheless, the current national average --$3.805 a gallon for regular gasoline -- is still 8% above a year ago level and fairly close to where they were in 2008 before the financial crisis.
Gasoline has always been a hot topic during any election year. In fact, interesting exchanges have already taken place between White House, G7, and the IEA regarding a potential SPR (strategic petroleum reserves), with a clear divide between the oil industry experts (IEA) and politicians (White House, G7, et al). IEA's position was that oil markets were currently well supplied and there was no reason to release SPR.
With Obama's re-election on the line, and to counter the potential effect of artificial price inflation by QE3, an SPR release attempting to bring down oil and gasoline prices would be the politically correct move by the White House.
As predicted in our previous analysis, domestic crude oil inventory could continue to build even from the current high level. From a global supply standpoint, Saudi Arabia reportedly has pledged to pump around 10 million barrels of crude a day in a bid to cut the price of Brent crude to around $100/bbl. These factors should further weaken the justification of an IEA-coordinated oil release like the one from last year.
However, even if there's an SPR release, unilateral by the U.S. or not, it will unlikely have as significant impact as people might expect on gasoline prices due to the diverging supply fundamentals discussed here. Think it could be a good idea to cosider a strategic gasoline reserve as well?
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| FX Concepts' John Taylor Will Always Be A EUR Bear Posted: 26 Sep 2012 03:56 PM PDT John Taylor, founder and CEO of the world's largest FX hedge fund, spoke with Bloomberg TV this morning and was his typically clarifying - if not sanguine - self when it comes to prospects in Europe and the US. Stating that he'll "probably always be a bear on the Euro", Taylor added that it is "hard to look at the European situation and see a cloudy sky become clear," and while there has been noisy swings in the movements of currencies of late, "the reason the euro is up is because the dollar is down - two guys have done this: Draghi and Bernanke." Ranging from FX to volatility, Taylor opines on the time-varying correlation of the weak euro with a strong US equity market and notes, however, that "the equity market is not showing any legs."
Taylor on the euro:
On whether the Swedish Krona has more room to gain:
On FX volatility being the lowest it has been since 2007 and whether that makes it more difficult for currency traders:
On whether he agrees with those why say that Bernanke signaled last month that Fed actions are tied to equity markets and what that means for those buying and selling currencies:
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| The Gold Price Broke Support and Fell $13.20 to $1,750.60 Great Opportunity to Buy Gold On Sale Posted: 26 Sep 2012 03:47 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1750.60 Change : -13.20 or -0.75% Silver Price Close Today : 33.883 Change : -0.003 or -0.01% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.666 Change : -0.385 or -0.74% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01936 Change : 0.000143 or 0.75% Platinum Price Close Today : 1634.40 Change : 2.60 or 0.16% Palladium Price Close Today : 624.70 Change : -15.00 or -2.34% S&P 500 : 1,433.34 Change : -8.25 or -0.57% Dow In GOLD$ : $158.39 Change : $ 0.69 or 0.44% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.662 Change : 0.033 or 0.44% Dow in SILVER oz : 395.88 Change : -1.26 or -0.32% Dow Industrial : 13,413.59 Change : -43.96 or -0.33% US Dollar Index : 79.90 Change : 23.800 or 42.42% As yesterday I feared, the GOLD PRICE broke $1,755 support and tumbled. Today gold lost $13.20 to $1,750.60, while silver curiously refused to follow, closing on 3/10 cent lower at 3388.3. Odd. The GOLD PRICE never broke $1,760 until nearly 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, then played the waterfall until 8:30, hitting the bottom pool at $1,738.58. It climbed on to vibrate between $1,750 and $1,740 until about 1:30 when it gapped up above $1,750, then closed 60 cents above $1,750. High came at $1,765.35. That $1,740 level is the first small support below gold, and stretches to $1,720. Then comes $1,700 support, and beneath that the 200 day moving average ($1648.23) and 150 DMA (1,641.64). Also, the downtrend line, which coming down from above will act as support, stands now about $1,650 and dropping. For the Fibonacci-minded, a 38.2% correction happens at $1,712.66, a 50% at $1,688.77. Any of those might catch gold's fall and end it. However, this shouldn't last too long, maybe a couple of weeks. The upcoming US election also clouds the outlook, since it's never quite clear how the public might react, although it will be clearly illogical. The SILVER PRICE broke support above 3360c and on gold's same timetable dropped to a 3334 low. Oddly, it refused to capitulate, and after trading sideways until 11:00 a.m., gapped up about 1:30, made a high at 3402c, and ended the day only 3/10 cent lower. Support around 3350c is proving stronger than expected. Expect silver to catch and stop falling around 3250 or 3100c. SILVER has been hugely overbought, so this correction is normal, predictable, and natural. Don't panic. Markets go up, markets go down, our job is to identify and ride the primary trend, the tide, and not to let the little waves and storms confuse us. This correction merely offers us an opportunity to buy silver and gold On Sale. Bailing out the banks is not a quiet or an easy business. Some of the "realizers" who see what's coming are raising a ruckus. In Greece, where an ECB/IMF dictated austerity "reform" has already been put in place, people are desperate. Hundreds of thousands marched today in protest. In Spain, the moment draweth nigh when the Spanish government must tell the ECB how much it needs to bail out Spanish banks and itself. Whoops -- but first, it must agree to the ECB-dictated austerity "reform." Tens of thousands of Spaniards, nervously eying what's happened in Greece, marched in protest. Head of the northwestern region of Catalonia is calling for a referendum to secede from Spain. (Why isn't he governor of Tennessee?) Of course, bailing out the banks creates many new jobs, for more policemen are needed to beat up protestors. Bailing out the banks is not easy, but it must be done. I forget WHY, but it must be done. I like it better the way we do it in the US, where the Fed just keeps on printing money and sends us all down the drain quietly and without a lot of fuss and fanfare. Y'all know what I'd like to see? I'd like to see one of those pointy-toed bankers or pointy-headed central bankers forced to put in one single day's real work. I think throwing hay would do it, following a trailer in the field picking up 80 lb. hay bales and throwing em up on the trailer to be stacked. Say, from about 7:30 a.m. till about 11:30 p.m., on a 95 degree day, but with breaks for dinner and supper, of course. I'm not inhuman. They could even wear gloves. Time they got finished, they'd know better than to call what they do "work." Wait, come to think of it, we need to give them an altogether new career breaking rocks permanently. And a bright orange jumpsuit to go with the job. Enough of this fun, there's serious news to face. A group in England warns that the widespread drought in Russia and the US threatens a world wide bacon shortage. And those central bankers think a financial crisis is bad. Wait till they live through a bacon shortage! I'm not worried. We've got hogs galore, and make our own bacon -- no chemicals. On the longer term chart the US dollar index has spent the last 9 days rallying up to the mid-channel support it fell through mid-September, about 79.75 today, It rose 23.8 basis points (0.31%) today to 79.90, but every gambler and his cousin will be selling the dollar at 80. Since the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan have all recently announced more money printing, sanitized under the newly invented name of "Quantitative Easing," they are most likely co-ordinating their currencies' exchange rates so that they all lose value at about the same rate. That way you ignorant hoi polloi won't catch on what they're doing and avoid it by buying silver or gold or goats or anything that can't be debased by central bankers. Here's something remarkable, witnessing to the manipulation I imply above. Remember I told y'all some time ago that central bankers' minds work in target ranges, and I bet their target range for the euro/$ and Yen/Dollar was 75 - 80. Today the yen closed at 128.69 cents to Y100, and the euro at $1.2857. Yep, that means $1 = Y77.71= E0.7779. Sharp marksmanship, Nice Government Men! That rioting in Greece and Spain just depresses the tar out of stock investors. European indices all dropped. In the US stock indices tried to bounce, but were only as successful as an anvil dropped from 6 inches. Shockwaves from the economic quakes in Europe rattled windows on Wall Street today. Something about seeing police beating hundreds of protestors with truncheons saps investors' optimism. Dow lost 43.96 (0.33%) to 13,413.59 while the S&P500 trotted along even faster, losing 8.25 (0.57%) to 1,433.34. In spite of this, the Dow in Gold Dollars is signaling that it intends to rally just a little. Today it rose to but not through its 200 DMA, and its MACD indicator turned positive. That hints gold has some tough days in front of it. Overnight Rhode Island and Wyoming finally ordered At Home In Dogwood Mudhole, along with Croatia and Andorra. That concludes my Special 2 for 1 offer, and I deeply appreciate your response. Don't misunderstand: we are still selling the book before its 15 October publication date, and hope the rest of y'all will order. If you don't, how will you ever learn about "The Yankee Christmas Gift," "The Rights and Wrong of Southern Barbeque," "Thanksgiving in Jail," or "The Great Chicken Slaughter." I will personally autograph all pre-publication orders. Once again, I warn y'all: At Home In Dogwood Mudhole will make you snort, wince, laugh, weep, and jump up and down. It won't bore you, and I'm willing to put my money where my book is: you buy it and read it, and if you can truly say it didn't move you to do anything but keep turning pages waiting for something to happen, I will refund your money and you can keep the book to throw at mad dogs. For some reason we're having problems with that bitly link. Instead, you can order the book at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1 Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. | ||
| Maranda Gold–Another Explorer With Good Prospects 26.Sept.12 Posted: 26 Sep 2012 03:27 PM PDT www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents Maranda Gold is a prospect generator. They've partnered with some big names in the business and they're on a world wide hunt for economic deposits. This was a natural progression for Ken Cunningham. While others were out partying or racing their cars around town, Ken was content to examine rocks and looking for those with special properties. He's still looking at rocks, but now they have special mineralization and hopefully contain vast amounts of gold. While explorers are the riskiest segment of the mining sector, when they hit, they often really pay off. And the key is seasoned management that knows where to look and what to look for, of which Ken is one of the best. Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Post Correction, The Upside For Gold & Silver Is Enormous Posted: 26 Sep 2012 03:04 PM PDT Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News that "... once gold gets past this reaction, the upside is enormous and the same is true for silver." Leeb also spoke about the dire situation in Europe and the US. Here is what Leeb had to say: "The story in Europe has really taken a dramatic turn for the worse. You now have Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland signing pacts opposing what the ECB wants to do. They are arguing for austerity." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| South African Strikes Halt 39% of Nation’s Gold Output Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:35 PM PDT 26-Sep (Bloomberg) — South African gold mine strikes halted about 39 percent of output, including at AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (ANG) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI), as unofficial walkouts spread in the country amid demands for above-inflation pay increases. AngloGold, the world's third-largest gold producer, today said all of its South African mines have been stopped. Gold Fields lost a metric ton, or about 32,000 ounces, of output because of strikes at its KDC and Beatrix sites. Gold-mine workers have been encouraged by the pay increase prompted by a wildcat strike in the platinum industry. [source] | ||
| Gold Holds As Equity Dead-Cat-Bounce Folds Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:23 PM PDT 10Y Treasuries hit a 1.60% handle as yields fell without a bounce all day. Equities managed a post-European-close bounce (notably to VWAP and unable to break above it) off pre-FOMC levels but that faded rapidly into the close of the US day session as volume and average trade size picked up. VIX traded over 17% (up over 1.4vols on the day). Gold held up better than stocks - especially given the strength in the USD - and remains well above pre-FOMC levels (holding its bounce into the close). Of the major US equity indices, only the Dow remains green from pre-FOMC as CRAAPL sees its worse 3-day slide in 5 months dragging NDX down (and high-beta Russell dropping fast). MS and GS are down 4.2% from pre-FOMC levels now as Financials are the biggest losers (just trumping Energy and Industrials) from when Ben opened his book. Healthcare remains the clear winner. WTI dived into the EU close but recovered to close at $90 (-3% on the week) but in general risk-asset correlations with US equities are extremely high (with risk suggesting more downside to come).
Gold remains a solid winner post FOMC as stocks are now below those levels. The USD and Treasuries are tracking each other strongly...
The Dow remains green from pre-FOMC but the rest of the indices are fading...
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are suffering post FOMC...
Interestingly, commodities bounce off the European close dive was sustained (as opposed to stocks fading)...
Correlations across asset-classes are extremely high (lower right) and broad risk assets led stocks lower (upper right) from lunch onwards. ETFs held together (upper left) with some noise from VXX and HYG but that faded rapidly into the close. On a super-long-term basis, stocks remain significantly over-priced relative to risk-assets (though we do not use this to trade it remains a useful pre-ECB/Fed indication of status quo)...
Bottom-line - this kind of flow suggests end of quarter rebalancing as the relative outperformance of stocks has been extraordinary. It certainly doe snot suggest a pre-amble to high beta chasing (as we dismissed last week) or a QEternity-inspired risk appetite into Q4...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context Bonus Chart: How much further for equities? hhmmm, bonds say quite a way...
Bonus Bonus Chart: AAPL's 3-day 5% slide is the largest in over 5 months... | ||
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:12 PM PDT Gold dropped $24.60 to $1736.80 by a little before 11AM EST before it bounced back higher midday, but it still ended with a loss of 0.57%. Silver slipped to as low as $33.32 by a little after 8AM EST, but it then rallied back higher throughout most of the rest of trade and ended with a gain of 0.56%. | ||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Turns It Around - Gold Options Expiration - Ted Butler Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:08 PM PDT | ||
| QE3 triggers fear of new currency wars Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:00 PM PDT 26-Sep (Financial Times) — Fear has crept into the foreign exchange markets: fear of central banks. Currency traders are rapidly shifting assets to countries seen as less likely to try to weaken their currencies, amid concern that the fresh round of US monetary easing could trigger another clash in the "currency wars". Fund managers are rethinking their portfolios in the belief that "QE3" – the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing – will weaken the dollar and trigger sharp gains in emerging market currencies. Such moves would cause a headache for central banks worried about the domestic impact of a strengthening local currency, leading to possible intervention. Some investors are allocating money towards countries with beaten-up currencies, such as India or Russia, or those with more benign central banks, such as Mexico, that do not have a history of frequent forex intervention. [source] PG View: Then of course there's gold; which has historically proven to be a pretty appealing alternative to debased fiat currency… | ||
| iNflation: Americans Spend Less On Food, Movies To Pay For Soaring Cell Phone Obsession Posted: 26 Sep 2012 01:46 PM PDT As America's mania with cell phones as an aspirational status fad hits new records every day, this borderline addiction to "thinner, longer" mobility and a sub-1 year upgrade cycle, is starting to extract its pound of flesh: average cell phone bills that have risen by over 10% in one year (from $1,110 to $1,226), even as total household spending rose by half, or $67. In a word: iNflation. It gets worse. As the WSJ reports, "spending on food away from home fell by $48, apparel spending declined by $141, and entertainment spending dropped by $126." Like a true faux status/gadget junkie, Americans don't care what other discretionary items are cut, even such "American staples" as eating out and watching movies, just so they can keep up with all the other Joneses sporting a brand new iPhone X+1, while everyone's credit card bill just gets larger and larger, and the collective wealth evaporates.
None of this is surprising. The real question is how much more discretionary spending can the US cell phone junkie forego before there is a collectivist yell of revulsion, and the mobile PDA fad is as dad as, well, all those other fads that came before it?
For those who look for iNflation and can't find it, perhaps they should look deeper:
Some people are very confused:
No Scott, it isn't. It's the consequence of your choices. But as long as one has the ability to do what every other borderline insolvent entity in the world does, namely to "charge it", sweep it under the rug, and hope to never have to repay it, this confusion will continue. And now excuse us while we swipe our corporate credit card to buy that gold Vertu phone we have had our eyes on for so long: surely it will make everyone else think so highly of us... | ||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2012 01:46 PM PDT by Jim Willie CB September 26, 2012 home: Golden Jackass website subscribe: Hat Trick Letter Jim Willie CB, editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER" Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to contaminate the financial body until it responds favorably was the last straw in my book. ... | ||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2012 01:26 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Weds 26 Sept, 08:00 EST WHOLESALE gold prices in US Dollars dipped beneath $1760 per ounce for the 3rd time this week in London on Wednesday morning, gaining against the Euro and Sterling as those currencies fell faster and rising back towards last week's new all-time high versus the Swiss Franc. World stock markets extended Tuesday's late plunge in US equities, knocking 2.4% off the French CAC40 index as the Euro dropped to a 2-week low beneath $1.2850. After anti-austerity protesters clashed last night with police in Madrid, a general strike in Greece brought the country "to a standstill" according to BBC reports, with tens of thousands of people gathered outside parliament in Athens. Commodity prices fell, with crude oil dropping to a 7-week low. Silver bullion held below $34.00 per ounce, trading just above Tuesday's 8-session low. "It's bullish when gold goes up in other currencies than the Dollar," Bloomb... | ||
| Its in Your Own Best Interest to Learn Just How Bad America?s Debt Problem Is ? So Read On! Posted: 26 Sep 2012 01:21 PM PDT Mathematically, the debt problem of the U.S. can not be solved, regardless of economic policies. That, unfortunately, is written. For it to be serviceable would be to violate the laws of mathematics and that cannot happen. [As such,*[B]America is quickly approaching a catastrophic economic collapse.*As repelling as that sounds, it's in your own best interest to learn just how bad the situation is. This article is an attempt to do just that.]*[/B]Words: 310 So says*Monty Pelerin (www.economicnoise.com)*in edited excerpts from his original article*. [INDENT]Lorimer Wilson, editor of*[B]www.munKNEE.com*(Your Key to Making Money!) andwww.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com*(A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds)*has edited the article below for length and clarity see Editor's Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.[/B] [/INDENT]Pelerin goes on to say, in part: Electing Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, no... | ||
| Gold Will Break Previous High in Near Term Posted: 26 Sep 2012 01:05 PM PDT Brien Lundin expects money printing by the Federal Reserve to raise gold above its $1,920/oz high, and as editor and publisher of Gold Newsletter, he considers it his job to show people how to profit. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, Lundin explains why he believes it is time to be aggressive in equity positions. |
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