Gold World News Flash |
- QE3: Helicopter Ben Bernanke Unleashes An All-Out Attack On The U.S. Dollar
- Norcini - A Violent Wave Of Short Covering In Gold & Silver
- Gold & Silver Extend Gains on Asian Open to $35 & $1775!
- We Are Now Beginning The Last Wave Of Gold’s Major Uptrend
- Things
- Violent short covering in metals, Norcini says, predicting much inflation
- What Does A $4 Trillion Fed Balance Sheet Mean For Gold And Oil
- Satyajit Das: Gold bugs haven’t lost the Midas touch
- MISH: World Sinks, Gold Skys.
- Fed policy isn't stimulus but deleveraging, Brodsky tells King World News
- QE, Zimbabwe, And The Surreptitious 30% Haircut Every Decade
- CPM Group's Jeff Christian on BNN on eve of gold and silver explosion: Go short
- Guest Post: Doug Casey On The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of Today's Journalism
- The Gold Price Gained a Huge $38.40 Overnight Closing at $1,769.50 Silver Gained 4.46 Percent Closing at $34.72
- Miners Catching Up To Metals — Huge Run Coming?
- In The News Today
- Which One would You Want to Own???
- What's UP With Gold?
- If A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words
- The Fed Panicked
- Ron Paul: "Country Should Panic Over Fed's Decision"
- US Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast, the Fate for Gold
- QE3 "Could Push Gold Over $1800"
- Your “Bernanke-Proof” Portfolio
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Benny Has a Printing Press - QE3 Begins
- Buying Bonds vs. Buying Gold, Which Would You Rather Own?
- Email from Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR)
- Silver Liberation Army eyes $150
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 4%
- Gold and Silver Miners Breakout As Open Ended QE3 Announced
| QE3: Helicopter Ben Bernanke Unleashes An All-Out Attack On The U.S. Dollar Posted: 13 Sep 2012 11:15 PM PDT from The Economic Collapse Blog:
Read More @ TheEconomicCollpaseBlog.com
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| Norcini - A Violent Wave Of Short Covering In Gold & Silver Posted: 13 Sep 2012 10:01 PM PDT  Today acclaimed trader Dan Norcini told King World News that in both the gold and silver markets, "... we were seeing a violent wave of short covering." This started taking place immediately after the Fed signaled the additional QE. Just six days ago Norcini correctly predicted that gold and silver would continue this surge. The acclaimed commodity trader had this to say about what is now taking place: "Once the QE announcement came from the Fed, gold and silver immediately soared, but so did the rest of the commodity complex. Anything that was a hard asset was moving higher, along with the stocks that produce those hard assets."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |
| Gold & Silver Extend Gains on Asian Open to $35 & $1775! Posted: 13 Sep 2012 09:45 PM PDT by The Doc, Silver Doctors:
Gold and silver both extended today's massive gains on Friday's Asian open, with silver tapping $35, and gold to $1775. We expect silver to break through $35 on it's 3rd attempt, after which it should quickly run to $35.75-$36. Look for a potential pull-back to occur near $37-$37.50, potentially taking silver back to $35 before the major up-move begins. There is simply no major downside risk for gold and silver at the present with QE∞ now official Fed policy. Let that sink in for a moment. As we mentioned this afternoon, new ALL-TIME NOMINAL HIGH'S ARE LOCKED AND LOADED!! It is simply a matter of time.
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| We Are Now Beginning The Last Wave Of Gold’s Major Uptrend Posted: 13 Sep 2012 09:15 PM PDT from KingWorldNews:
On the heels of the Fed announcing QE3, and the gold market surging higher, today King World News wanted to speak with the firm that is calling for $10,000 gold. Paul Brodsky, who co-founded QB Asset Management Company, had this to say about what what the Fed and other central planners are doing: "What I've noticed about today's move is that the Fed embarked on more QE, but without any pretense, it seems, of economic stimulation. I think this is something that investors, economists and others should take note of." Brodsky continues @ KingWorldNews.com
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 09:05 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 13, 2012 06:14 PM [LIST] [*]Santelli’s Lunch Bag shows end result of all QE’s [*]Germany’s Knows U.S. the next Greece [*]Ron Paul bang-on as usual [*]Sadly, BNN and others will not only still have knuckleheads like Christian and Nadler on, but never require them to explain how they keep getting gold so badly wrong [*] [/LIST] [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Violent short covering in metals, Norcini says, predicting much inflation Posted: 13 Sep 2012 09:01 PM PDT 11p ET Thursday, September 13, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Futures market analyst Dan Norcini tonight tells King World News that the short covering in the monetary metals was violent today but that the whole commodity complex was on fire as the dollar broke down after the Fed's pledge to keep devaluing it. This, Norcini says, augurs for a lot more inflation and the destruction of the middle class. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/14_No... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold. Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order. GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum Intercepts Best Pt+Pd+Au Grades Yet Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) announces more results of its 2012 drill program on the company's fully-owned Wellgreen platinum group metals, nickel, and copper project in southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada. Four surface holes and four underground holes all intercepted significant mineralized widths, ranging from 28.5 meters (WS12-201) and up to 459.5 metres (WS12-193). Highlights include WU12-540, which returned 8.9 metres of 5.36 grams per tonne platinum, palladium, and gold; 1.73 percent copper; and 1.01 percent nickel within 304.5 meters of 0.66 g/t platinum-palladium-gold, 0.20 percent copper, and 0.27 percent nickel. The surface drill program started in June and has completed 16 holes (assays pending for 12 holes) with two rigs now on site. The surface program continues to progress at a steady pace. Prophecy Chairman John Lee commented: "Wellgreen is a very large nickel, copper, and platinum group metals project with near-surface high-grade zones. High-grade intercepts will be incorporated into resource modeling and mine planning in the pre-feasibility study. We expect further positive drill results from Wellgreen shortly." Wellgreen features a low 2.59-to-1 strip ratio, is situated at an altitude of 1,300 meters, and is only 15 kilometers from the two-lane paved Alaska Highway. Those factors significantly minimize the project's indirect costs. For the complete company statement with full tabulation of the drilling results, please visit: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_sep11_prophecy_platinum_drill_results....
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| What Does A $4 Trillion Fed Balance Sheet Mean For Gold And Oil Posted: 13 Sep 2012 08:47 PM PDT from Zero Hedge:
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| Satyajit Das: Gold bugs haven’t lost the Midas touch Posted: 13 Sep 2012 08:30 PM PDT by Satyajit Das, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA, GATA:
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The Federal Reserve is giving the U.S. economy another injection of financial stimulus, and, on cue, gold buyers cheered. The world now remembers financier J.P. Morgan's words to Congress in 1912: "Gold is money. Everything else is credit." Investors have poured money into exchange traded funds that buy gold. Some central banks are now rebuilding their gold reserves. In Germany, gold is available in airports and train stations from "Gold to Go" vending machines. Shoppers can buy a 1-gram wafer of gold or a larger 10-gram bar. Gold bugs speculate about a new age of gold. Since the replacement of the gold standard with the U.S. dollar standard, gold's price has fluctuated widely. In January 1980, gold reached a high of $850 an ounce, reflecting high rates of inflation and economic uncertainty. Subsequently, the recovery of the global economy saw gold prices fall over almost 20 years, reaching a low of $253 an ounce in June 1999. From 2001 gold began to rise due to a mixture of increased demand, especially from emerging nations such as India and China. In 2007 and 2008, gold received an additional boost from the onset of the global financial crisis. Concern about a banking system collapse drove gold prices to a peak above $1,900 an ounce in August 2011. An ounce of the metal neared $1,760 after the Fed announcement on Thursday.
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 08:23 PM PDT Panic! Investors should prepare, "… for a big plunge in economic growth worldwide." Mish also said that despite the plunge in the global economy, "I expect to see gold breakout to the upside and I think we are starting to … Continue reading
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| Fed policy isn't stimulus but deleveraging, Brodsky tells King World News Posted: 13 Sep 2012 07:34 PM PDT 9:35p ET Thursday, September 13, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: If even today's announcement by the Federal Reserve hasn't convinced you of Jim Sinclair's longstanding prediction of "QE to In-fin-i-tee," you may need to hear fund manager Paul Brodsky's interview with King World News. Brodsky says: "We have been arguing for quite some time now that this really isn't an economic stimulus game that the Fed and other central banks are playing. What they are really trying to do is to de-lever the system. ... We see the $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities purchases as being a way to put your thumb in the dyke. We think it's only going to get larger. There is much more of this to come. The frequency of further QE announcements is going to be greater, and it's going to lead to much higher resource and precious metals prices." An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/13_We... The latest editorial in the New York Sun drives the point home: "Of course we've been easing quantitatively for years now and unemployment is still above 8%, even as an astonishing number of would-be workers drop out of the labor force altogether. Not only is quantitative easing failing to solve the problem it was ostensibly undertaken to solve, but, according to one of our favorite economists, David Malpass, it is actually making things worse: 'In our view Fed bond purchases are weakening the economy's output by misallocating capital -- channeling capital into [mortgage-backed securities], government bonds, gold, and commodities rather than allowing a market-based allocation of capital to job-creating businesses. The stronger the Fed's forward guidance, the more self-fulfilling the economic weakness.'" The Sun's editorial is headlined "The Missing Element" and it's posted here: http://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-missing-element/87984/ CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Special Offer for GATA Supporters from The Calandra Report Financial journalist Thom Calandra, co-founder of MarketWatch.com and a longtime GATA supporter, has revived his weekly market letter, The Calandra Report, which is aimed at believers in natural resources and metals equities. His three recommended stocks so far -- prospectors in Nevada, Portugal, and Colombia looking for gold, silver, copper, and tungsten -- have risen since his recommendation, and he is traveling throughout the world to research more recommendations. Through Sept. 22 the TCR's subscription price is $48 per year and during that time Calandra will donate to GATA $5 for every GATA supporter who subscribes. After that the TCR's subscription price will rise to $54. Calandra will join GATA's Bill Murphy and Chris Powell at the Toronto Resource Investment Conference on Thursday and Friday, Sept. 27 and 28 -- http://cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conference-2... -- and at the New Orleans Investment Conference from Wednesday through Saturday, Oct. 24-27: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home For a sample of a recent edition of The Calandra Report and to subscribe, please visit: http://www.babybulls.com/index.cfm/page/THE-CALANDRA-REPORT:-AUGUST-26,-... Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/.
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| QE, Zimbabwe, And The Surreptitious 30% Haircut Every Decade Posted: 13 Sep 2012 07:31 PM PDT Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com Dizzying QE gobbledygook is upon us once again. It would restart its big 480-volt money printer, in addition to the desktop machine it had been using recently, the Fed said, in order “to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate,” namely “maximum employment and price stability.” Thus, more inflation magically creates more jobs, and “price stability” requires more inflation in order to become more ... stable maybe? The Dallas Fed shed some light on this conundrum. Inflation hounded the Zimbabwean dollar ever since its creation in 1980, when it was worth US$ 1.54. By 1997, when I was in Zimbabwe, the Zim dollar had plummeted to about 10 cents. I’d been traveling solo through Africa by whatever “public transportation” was available. There were days on dirt roads with washed out bridges or no bridges, dry river beds, expressways, rickety railroads, or the sand of the Sahara—and some remaining landmines. By comparison, Zimbabwe was still in decent shape. [That life-changing journey through 24 countries in Africa is subject of a forthcoming book, the third in the series. The first one, Big Like: Cascade into an Odyssey—a “funny-as-hell nonfiction book about wanderlust and traveling abroad,” a reader tweeted—is available now at Amazon.] But inflation steepened. In 2006, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe created the new (second) Zimbabwean dollar by chopping off three zeros. It still wasn’t hyperinflation. Just plain inflation. In March 2007, the Z$ 500,000-note was issued, signaling the official arrival of hyperinflation (more than 50% inflation per month). By 2008, the Zim dollar had become useless for transactions. To keep the country from total collapse, authorities finally allowed transactions to be made in dollars. In January, 2009, Zimbabwe issued the one-hundred-trillion Zim dollar note, the largest denomination banknote ever. It marked the end of the currency. In February, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe—which was still around despite the mayhem it had caused—introduced the fourth Zim dollar, which chopped off 12 zeros. Forget it, the people said, and the currency was abandoned. An ignominious end. The US greenback, the South African rand, and the Botswana pula were given official status, prices “stabilized,” and real GDP per capita turned significantly positive in 2009, the first such reading since 1998. Decades of inflation and two years of hyperinflation left desperation and destitution in their wake; they’d destroyed wealth and the economy, and knocked real per capita GDP down by nearly 50% to a level not seen since the early 1950s. Does the Fed want to create this kind of scenario in the US? Its stated inflation objective is 2% per year, as measured by PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), which understates the already questionable CPI numbers. So perhaps their goal is just under 3% per year as measured by CPI, or just under 30% per decade. They succeeded: 27.5% from 1990 to 1999 and 24.6% from 2000 to 2009. But that isn’t enough anymore: inflation must be higher, the Fed said. 30% per decade perhaps. That’s the surreptitious haircut they impose on all assets every decade. If you live long enough—knock on wood—pretty soon it’ll add up to real money. Make it up with yield? You bet. I mean, forget it. Its Zero Interest Rate Policy will stay in place indefinitely, the Fed reassured us, as it pushed its ZIRP horizon from mid-2014 to mid-2015, to be extended ad infinitum. Make it up with higher wages? Um, no. Wage increases must lag behind inflation ... to make wages competitive with those in China or Mexico. And that’s been happening since 2000 [read.... The Pauperization of America]. That’s the kind of inflation modern central banks collude to create. When it gets out of hand, they know how to slow it down. These folks are smart and powerful, and unlike the guys in Zimbabwe, they know what they’re doing. Governments, the financial industry, and large corporations benefit from “contained” inflation as it pays off part of their massive debts. They’re the constituents of central banks. Others benefit as well, such as homeowners, but they’re just bystanders. And anyone who owns that crappy debt gets a haircut. Once inflation edges towards 10% per year, even the Fed’s constituents no longer benefit from it, but are threatened by it. And a consensus forms among central bankers to act, however painful it will be for everyone else—and suddenly, the “maximum employment” mandate is out the window. So here’s a thought: Gold! “Its pullback a year ago shook out a lot of nervous buyers,” writes Jeff Clark, “but there are signs to watch for.” Read.... When Will Gold Finally Take Off Again? And here are Aussie Comedians Clarke and Dawe who explain once and for all how QE works, in just two-and-a-half minutes ... a hilarious video even if you’ve already seen it.
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| CPM Group's Jeff Christian on BNN on eve of gold and silver explosion: Go short Posted: 13 Sep 2012 07:11 PM PDT 9:16p ET Thursday, September 13, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: For some reason Jeff Christian, managing director of the metals consultancy CPM Group, long has been getting under the skin of certain GATA folks. But Christian has been a hero to your secretary/treasurer ever since his testimony at the March 25, 2010, hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where he revealed that even the so-called "physical" gold and silver markets in London are mainly just paper shorting operations: When Christian testified, gold was below $1,200 and silver was at $17. But his comments about the phoniness of the "physical" market inadvertently reinforced GATA's urgings to investors in gold and silver to get out of mere paper claims and into real metal and to remove it from the bullion market and banking system. Whereupon the metals rose steadily over the next 18 months, peaking at $1,900 and $47, respectively. On Monday this week Christian appeared on Business News Network in Canada and predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve would announce no substantial bond monetization this week, that the Fed's inaction would smash commodity prices, and that CPM Group had advised its clients to go short gold and silver: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip757705 If they took Christian's advice, CPM Group's clients have not done well this week -- nor, for that matter, over the last decade or so. BNN appears to have banned GATA representatives from interviews on the network: http://www.gata.org/node/11635 But as long as BNN keeps giving airtime to Christian, gold and silver may do just fine. He may have become a bit like the hapless police detective played by the late Leslie Nielsen in the "Naked Gun" movies, whose obliviousness was nevertheless thought-provoking: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/. Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Special Offer for GATA Supporters from The Calandra Report Financial journalist Thom Calandra, co-founder of MarketWatch.com and a longtime GATA supporter, has revived his weekly market letter, The Calandra Report, which is aimed at believers in natural resources and metals equities. His three recommended stocks so far -- prospectors in Nevada, Portugal, and Colombia looking for gold, silver, copper, and tungsten -- have risen since his recommendation, and he is traveling throughout the world to research more recommendations. Through Sept. 22 the TCR's subscription price is $48 per year and during that time Calandra will donate to GATA $5 for every GATA supporter who subscribes. After that the TCR's subscription price will rise to $54. Calandra will join GATA's Bill Murphy and Chris Powell at the Toronto Resource Investment Conference on Thursday and Friday, Sept. 27 and 28 -- http://cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conference-2... -- and at the New Orleans Investment Conference from Wednesday through Saturday, Oct. 24-27: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home For a sample of a recent edition of The Calandra Report and to subscribe, please visit: http://www.babybulls.com/index.cfm/page/THE-CALANDRA-REPORT:-AUGUST-26,-...
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| Guest Post: Doug Casey On The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of Today's Journalism Posted: 13 Sep 2012 06:42 PM PDT Submitted by Doug Casey of Casey Research, Louis: Hola Doug. What's on your mind this week?
Doug: The color yellow. As in "yellow journalism" – which seems almost the only kind we have these days. Of course, to be fair, inflammatory, shamelessly dishonest "man bites dog" journalism has always been the dominant kind, simply because it sells papers. But we'll see more than the usual amount in the next couple of months, simply because elections lend themselves to it; politics seems to stimulate the reptilian part of the brain, the most primitive part. Both politics and the reptilian brain relate well to the yellow press. Anyway, like many people, I watched snippets of the Republican National Convention in Tampa. Maybe, since I'm engaging in punditry, I should have watched the whole damn thing. But I simply couldn't force myself to watch even all the parts that were broadcast, because it was just too boring and degrading. I can't imagine how the people who were there for the whole four days were able to remain awake for the whole thing. Perhaps this is proof that zombies really do exist. What kind of people could take such a charade seriously? It was all canned speeches and scripted events that were basically dishonest. Politics has always been dishonest, of course, but at least it used to be unscripted and mildly entertaining… L: Wait a minute – what about the now much-discussed Eastwood incident? By all accounts, that was unscripted and perhaps even unwelcome among the convention organizers. Doug: I did watch Clint and enjoyed his speech, which appeared to be unscripted. He's a skilled actor and entertainer, so I've got to believe it was really off the cuff. I've read in the papers – which means I don't really know anything except some reporter's guess – but I've read that Clint was only supposed to give a five-minute, canned speech. Romney and the convention organizers were caught off guard when Eastwood asked for a chair to be brought on stage; it was thought he wanted to use it to sit down. But he then proceeded to have a very funny conversation with an invisible Obama. One reason I liked it is that he treated Obama with the respect he deserved. It's about time people stopped treating presidents as if they were Roman emperors. L: I've watched that segment on YouTube and noticed that he used the word "libertarian," which I doubt the RNC would have approved in advance. So I can believe that "Dirty Harry" was shooting from the hip, as it were. Doug: I agree – I'm sure they would not have approved of that. I expect the Republicans will do everything they can to discount, denigrate, and destroy the Libertarian Party candidacy of Gary Johnson for president. They know Johnson is likely to draw more votes from them than from the Democrats. And of course, Ron Paul was made a veritable nonperson. The only mention he got at the convention didn't include any acknowledgment of some of his most important propositions, like ending the drug war, ending foreign interventions and wars, and abolishing the Fed. These people are dishonest and manipulative through and through. The other thing Clint did, as I recall, was only to mention Romney twice, and not in way that was a particularly strong endorsement. It took courage on Clint's part in that forum. L: I noticed that too; his focus was on the people, not the candidate. The biggest cheer he got was when he spoke of the people and said, "We own this country… politicians are employees of ours." Doug: Yes. I'm sure that also rankled the suits running the show. But the fact that Clint's sincere, unscripted comments are so exceptional tells us a lot about the rest of the drivel at such events. It's like he came up with the idea shortly before he went on stage and was truly speaking extemporaneously. It wasn't approved by the Politburo, like absolutely everything else emanating from the convention was. The press coverage of the incident is a good example of the sort of thing that makes me despise reporters. In a way, it's a litmus test of the psychology of the average journalist, how they reacted to that thing… It says more about them than it does about Eastwood, how they reported on it and what they said about it. So many of them focused on how he hesitated, fumbled, repeated himself, and so forth, scoffing at his remarks as being just an old man's rant. The snide comments of Michael Moore, the Evil Party's answer to Jabba the Hutt, are fairly typical. It was clear to me that Clint spoke from the heart, mistakes and all. I believe that 300 million Americans out there are starving for straight talk from the heart of someone they like – and everyone loves Clint. My guess is that most everybody who isn't an ideologue of either the Stupid Party or the Evil Party really resonated with his sentiments. The only downside is they'll wind up helping the feckless Romney. It was night-and-day different from the slick speeches by the horrible politicians. They all sounded like they'd rehearsed their speeches dozens of times. Every one of them sounded phony – which they are. I preferred the old days when you never knew what the outcome of the convention would be, and the speeches could actually tell you something about the men giving them – or at least have entertainment value. When did all this change? My guess is in the '50s, with broadcast TV and the invention of the teleprompter. The whole convention was a flavorless, odorless, sanitized bore – except for Clint. L: I was struck by those criticisms of Eastwood's delivery as well. Clint Eastwood was born in 1930 – give the guy a break! These critics will be lucky to be half as eloquent when they are in their 80s. But even that's beside the point; what should matter most is what he said, not how he said it. These same media hacks would never speak so disrespectfully of a venerable statesman they agreed with. Doug: I have nothing but contempt for these blow-dried airheads on TV news shows. They pontificate and tell you what you're supposed to think – but they're really not journalists. They just read the establishment press releases, thereby helping to prop it up. Instead of being the Fourth Estate – a private-sector watchdog and counterbalance to state power – they just make themselves lapdogs of politicians. If you watch something like The Daily Show, Jon Stewart will often show clips of different so-called journalists in juxtaposition to each other – he did this regarding the Republican Convention – and you can see that the reporters all use the same words. It's like they are all reading the same script or keying off each other – it's a herd mentality. This is one reason print journalism has gone downhill, as well. In the era before the TV, a journalist had to witness things in person and draw an independent conclusion. It wasn't technically feasible to know what everybody else was groupthinking in real time. The noble, lone journalist in the mold of H. L. Mencken is completely gone from the scene today. L: I know what you mean, but a TV news anchor isn't really a reporter. He or she is an attractive actor hired to read the news others research, because their faces increase ratings. Is it fair to criticize such people for not being investigative journalists? Doug: No, I guess it's not. They are hired to look sincere and look good. I believe it's well established that people in general are prone to like and believe people they find attractive – that's the basis for hiring TV news anchors – that and having completely unremarkable, predictable, "mainstream" views. But it's still not a good thing. To have a system that relies on attractive but ignorant or misinformed people regurgitating reporting written by others is dangerous. The so-called Fourth Estate is dying. You know, that very term – Fourth Estate – is being used more now, at the very time that the institution itself is changing its essence. The idea of a Fourth Estate arose with the Industrial Revolution and the inception of capitalism – the first three basically being the church, the "nobles," and everyone else – the 99%. The Fourth Estate has historically been a bit outside all that, but certainly outside the church and the state. Their purpose was to tell it like it is, keep things in balance, and be impartial truth-tellers. Major cities each had dozens of papers. But now the Fourth Estate has truly been captured by the ruling classes. That's the bad news. The good news is that we have the Internet. The stuff people report there may not always be anymore accurate than the mass media, but at least it's independent – it's not a mouthpiece for the Establishment. As far as I'm concerned, the Fourth Estate has betrayed its basic raison d'être, and no longer serves much of a useful purpose. L: Which brings us back to the people who write the stories or compose the video coverage – the kind of investigators who are supposed to make a show like 60 Minutes deliver hidden truth to a population that needs to know… Doug: Unfortunately, they seem to be cut from pretty much the same cloth as the reporters who write for outfits like the New York Times or, God forbid, USA Today – something I feel sheepish about reading in public. They all went to the same universities, where they were taught the same ideas and values by the same teachers – who are all statists of one stripe or another. They are all so deeply inculcated in this worldview, they don't even know they are in it. It's one reason why I found the ideas of the speakers at our recent Summit so refreshing. They see things from a perspective that's sorely lacking in politics and mainstream American reporting. L: Which is why journalists who don't work for right-wing rags never admit that there is such a thing as "liberal media bias." Their colored glasses have been on for so long, they don't even realize they wear them. Doug: Exactly. The 60 Minutes guys fell flat on their faces when they didn't call Ben Bernanke out for contradicting himself on their show, first saying the Fed was printing money, then saying it wasn't. If these guys are the toughest watchdogs we have, we're in big trouble. The best sources of news on TV are probably The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. As comedians, they serve the role of the court jester and can say things to the king that nobody else dares to. It's a sad testimony. L: But there are exceptions, like John Stossel. Doug: Of course, but again, it's the exception that tests the rule; the fact that Stossel is so extraordinary tells us a lot about what is ordinary. You can see this clearly when you get a bunch of reporters together on an impromptu talk show, like Meet the Press or whatever; what you see is a bunch of opinionated people, some somewhat to the left, some somewhat to the right of center, yelling at each other. It's never an intelligent discussion of ideas and principles at all. For instance, there's never a discussion of whether Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid are correct areas for government involvement – that's completely accepted and a given. Even with Obamacare or Romneycare the discussion is only one of whether it's affordable or efficient, not whether it's ethically defensible. It's just glib one-liners and catch phrases. L: Whoever has the best sound bite wins. Doug: Just so. Political talk shows are frustrating and embarrassing to watch. I just want to wash my hands of the whole mess, but I guess I'll have to watch at least a little of the Democrat's Convention, just to see what kind of charade they put on. I expect it will be more enthusiastic than that of the Republicans, because at least the Democrats actually have some principles... even if they're completely bent, destructive, and statist principles. It should be some show, maybe like the Nuremburg rally. L: Morbid curiosity? Doug: Yes, and very unappealing. It's literally like watching something die. The capacity of the masses to sit on their sofas and watch endless hours of canned drivel on TV is increasingly convincing me that libertarians and other free-thinkers are actually genetic mutants. We can mate with Boobus americanus intellectually about as well as a human can mate physically with a chimpanzee. L: Mutants… or at least an uncommon personality type. Doug: Either way, we are so few – it's hard to have any hope of reason ever winning the day. My friend Jeff Berwick was caught in a spate of optimism the other day, which started with him guessing that maybe 10,000 new people become libertarians every day – a great-sounding number. Then he took out his calculator and realized that even if the population of earth was stable that, even at that rate, it would take something like 2,000 years before everyone stopped thinking like a criminal. Communication is critical, of course. But while that's become easier, in some ways, like the Internet, it may be increasingly difficult in others. The masses are addled by the mind-numbing rays from their TVs, and there are scores of millions more addled by psychiatric drugs, and hundreds of millions more by generations of government miseducation. On the bright side – you know I like to always look on the bright side – the Internet could be bigger than all those things. The big media corporations no longer have a stranglehold on the news. These days, anyone with a phone has audio- and video-recording capability and can be a reporter. With the Internet, any of these people can get word of what they see out to the entire world. L: A new, 21st century version of the Fourth Estate? Doug: Yes; the truth is out there. But as with everything else, it's subject to Pareto's Law. So, 80% of what's out there is crap, and 80% of what's left is merely okay. But that remaining 4% of quality, uncensored, free information flow is extremely valuable. More good news: because people increasingly realize that 80% of everything is crap, they're becoming evermore discriminating – which is a very good thing. People used to slavishly believe everything in the newspapers just because it was written; now they're necessarily more skeptical, which means they're forced to be more thoughtful. But as great as this is, it's like Jesus of Nazareth said: "He who has ears, let him hear." For the distributed and free reporting we now have via the Internet to do much good, people need to question what they're told and look for the truth – that's not going to happen if they only use the 'Net for social media and porn. After generations of government schooling, where critical thinking is the last thing they want to teach, people willing to do this are few and far between. L: You're an atheist quoting the Bible? Doug: Why not? I can read. Everyone should read the Bible, along with Richard Dawkins, of course. L: Indeed. Investment implications? Doug: Nothing I haven't said before, but that doesn't make it any less true. The terminal corruption of the major news corporations and the lack of interest in seeking the truth among the general population augurs very poorly for the prospects of the US and the current world order. This creates speculative opportunities, which we work hard on uncovering in our publications, emails, and events, but prospects for mainstream investments are not good. Western civilization is truly in decline and far down the slippery slope. L: You wrote an article some years ago on how to profit from the coming collapse of Western civilization… Doug: Yes – which brings me back to the color yellow, but in a positive context this time: the yellow metal. Now the collapse is beginning, my advice is the same: accumulate gold – not as an investment, but for safety. For profit, speculate on the various bubbles and other trends government interventions in response to the unfolding crisis bring about. Rational investment is not an option in this context (remembering that investment is deploying capital to create more capital). Hopefully, investment will again be a viable option after the ongoing crisis bottoms; it depends in good degree how most people view the role of government. We all have to be speculators now, if we want to make money, and we have to be "gold bugs" if we want to come through the storm with minimal loss of wealth.
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 06:27 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,769.50 Change : 38.40 or 2.22% Silver Price Close Today : 34.72 Change : 1.48 or 4.46% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 50.97 Change : 1.12 or 2.15% From 7 September through 16 September Franklin Sanders will be away for a family vacation and won't publish a daily commentary during that time, but will return on 17 September. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. 
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| Miners Catching Up To Metals — Huge Run Coming? Posted: 13 Sep 2012 06:25 PM PDT Gold bugs are a generally happy bunch this week. But they'd be a lot happier if precious metals mining stocks kept up with the metals themselves. Since early 2011 the largest gold miners have underperformed gold by about 40%, while the junior miners have done even worse (I'm talking to you, Great Basin). Thanks to this divergence between the metals and the miners, it was possible to clearly understand the monetary destruction endemic in the developed world, conclude that gold and silver were the places to be, make a decisive bet on this thesis — and still end up losing money. There are two possible conclusions to draw from this: Either mining as a business has changed fundamentally and will be unprofitable forever – in which case we should just own physical metal and forget about paper proxies. Or the past couple of years were one of those inexplicable divergences from established relationships that produce huge gains when they snap back to normal. The past month has offered a taste of what the second possibility might look like. The chart below shows that the big miners (represented by the GDX gold miner ETF, red line) have outperformed gold itself (the GLD bullion ETF, blue area) since July. But the two-year gap, like I said, is about 40%, so parity is still a long way off. Now that the miners have some momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if they made up this ground in no time at all.
Gold miners (red line) versus Gold (blue) since mid-June
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 06:16 PM PDT My center has collapsed, my right flank is weakening. Situation excellent. I am attacking. –Arshall Foch (Gold trader's mantra?)
My Dear Friends, In the last few weeks you have gotten coordinated international central bank action of an unprecedented nature. The reaction is to an extremely severe international financial problem beyond even Continue reading In The News Today
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| Which One would You Want to Own??? Posted: 13 Sep 2012 05:51 PM PDT [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Now that the Fed has made it abundantly clear that they intend to further debauch the US Dollar so as to keep Wall Street happy, watch for gold to once again begin outperforming against US Treasuries. Notice that each previous round of QE, has sent the yellow metal higher against the price of the long bond as the latter appropriately responds to an increase in inflation expectations by such activity. Compared to previous QE's, this round is relatively modest by comparison as a $40 billion per month price tag still is less than $500 billion annually. Still, there is Operation Twist occuring alongside of this. Either way, I would expect the pattern to resume in favor of gold now that the deed is history. ...
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 05:00 PM PDT By Catherine Austin Fitts For most of 2012, gold and silver have been in a period of consolidation: both US equity markets and agricultural commodities have outperformed precious metals. But, as Franklin Sanders predicted in our report last month, this period of consolidation appears to be over. Gold and silver prices have moved up [...]
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| If A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words Posted: 13 Sep 2012 04:54 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 13, 2012 02:46 PM My reaction to today’s “Hail Mary” pass by the FED? Today * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Year from Now * * * * * * * * * * * Closer Now Than Ever + += More to follow in the coming days and weeks on this historical day and IMHO shall prove to be the straw that broke the Camel’s back to America as the world’s #1 economic power. In the meantime, “when” we go over $2,000 in gold, let’s not forget the greatest contrarian gold signal of all-time and donate to the Tokyo Rose Relief Fund. [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Posted: 13 Sep 2012 04:37 PM PDT This article originally appeared on The Daily Capitalist. Here is the Fed Open Market Committee's announcement of November 25, 2008 announcing the implementation of QE1, a $600 billion bond purchase program:
On March 18, 2009, the Fed announced a second phase of QE1, expanding the program by another $750 billion to bring the Fed's total to $1.25 trillion for the QE1 program. The Fed noted that:
On November 3, 2010 they announced another round of quantitative easing called QE2 in which they purchased another $600 billion of longer term Treasurys:
On September 21, 2011 the Fed announced Operation Twist in which they extended the maturity dates of $400 billion of their Treasury portfolio in order to drive down interest rates and to "support a stronger economic recovery". The Fed's reason:
Recall also that the Fed has kept the Fed Funds rate at almost zero rates (ZIRP) since the beginning of the 2008 crash. Today, the Fed announced an open-ended purchase of "agency" mortgage-backed securities of $40 billion per month at least until the end of the year, which along with its Operation Twist purchases, amount to $85 billion of such purchases each month. Again they wish to "support a stronger economic recovery". Their justification was:
This time the Fed added some significant wording:
The bottom line is that the Fed panicked. It is extraordinary that the Fed would announce an open-ended "we'll print as much as it takes, as long as it takes" policy. Chairman Bernanke is sending a signal to the markets and to government that the economy is bad and getting worse and that the Fed will do its part as everyone expects them to do. This is a clear signal to the markets and the world that the Fed stands for monetary inflation. They don't know what else to do. As we have long been telling readers, unemployment is the key to Fed policy and they have formally made it their policy linchpin. As far back as May, 2011, on Fox Business News I said that Mr. Bernanke has no other real alternatives other than QE and that with rising unemployment, he would be pressured to "do something." One may ask why none of these policies have led to economic recovery. Why didn't QE1 work? After all they told us then that it would promote "sustainable economic growth". By the time QE2 was released we heard much of the same thing: it would "promote a stronger pace of economic recovery". Had QE1 worked as they said, why did they need QE2? Now the Fed tells us again that another round will "support a stronger economic recovery". That begs this question: If QE1 and QE2 and Operation Twist didn't work, why would QE3 work? The quick answer is that it will fail like its predecessors. I discussed this at length in my February 14, 2012 article, "Is This Recovery." In that article I anticipated that the following things would happen: 1. The economic "good news" is largely based on fiat money steroids and will not last without continuous injections of new fiat money into the economy. 2. The last injection of fiat money (QE2) is already wearing out and money supply is most likely declining. 3. A declining MS will result in further economic weakness (stagnation) and flattening-to-increasing unemployment. 4. This is likely to occur in Q2-Q3 2012. 5. As soon as unemployment goes up again, the Fed will announce QE3. 6. The dollar will continue to be weak. 7. It is likely that price inflation will continue to be "modest" (as the Fed sees it) in light of ongoing real estate related asset devaluation. This depends on the amount of QE. The article thoroughly discusses the reasons why the economy is stagnating and why further rounds of quantitative easing will not change it. One of the charts from that article (shown below) attempts to show that each round of QE has been less effective at boosting nominal GDP. The vertical bars show the dates of QE1 (orange) and QE2 (light blue), the money supply (TMS2- aqua-blue line), and GDP (thin black line with its own scale [left]). The result is that economic growth measured by nominal GDP has been largely illusionary.
The truth is that GDP is not a very good measure of economic growth, at least when the Fed increases the money supply through QE. Since GDP measures spending, if new money is injected into the economy, there will be more spending and thus GDP will increase. The second point is that "printing" money never creates organic economic growth. In fact it never has at any time in history. What can we expect the consequences of QE3 will be? 1. Money steroids will give a temporary boost to the financial markets as evidenced by today's euphoric response to the Fed's announcement. 2. The impact on organic economic growth will be nil even though it may slightly increase GDP by Q1 2013. 3. Unemployment will remain high. 4. Economic growth will stagnate, if not decline, through the remainder of 2012 as money supply growth declines (TMS2). 5. Post Q1 2013, economic activity will again stagnate, assuming there are no policy changes or political changes (Romney is elected). 6. Europe and the rest of the world's economies are in decline which will further depress the U.S. economy. 7. Price inflation is a guessing game. My guess is that it will remain within the Fed's parameters. The key to price inflation will be credit creation through lenders and, while lending has shown some life (mainly the big banks with big companies), it is likely to flatten again as the economy stagnates, thus inflation will remain "Japanese." 8. Interest rates will remain around their historic lows. While the housing market is showing some signs of life, its recovery largely depends on job growth which will remain subdued. 9. How much QE is a good question. I cannot see that any Fed chairman would print endlessly to a point of high price inflation. That would require much greater amounts of QE-type monetary stimulus plus it would require banks to lend, which means businesses would be willing to borrow, thus expanding credit and money supply to much higher levels. QE is not an efficient way to price inflation, and in a stagnating economy, borrowing will remain flat. If you are a true believer and feel that the Fed is correct, you have to ask yourself hard questions about your assumptions since the Fed has been consistently wrong in their forecasts and policies. Now they insist on pursuing the same failed policies. Why would they work now? The Fed continues to follow the same wrong policies as it has since the beginning of this depression. We now have one of the longest depressions in history that has been caused by the Fed and the fiscal policies of the Bush and Obama Administrations. They are devaluing the dollar, destroying capital, thwarting growth, and cheating savers out of their hard earned money. It is a cruel blow to the 23.1 million un/under-employed in the U.S. who need economic growth to create jobs. We need a new direction.
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| Ron Paul: "Country Should Panic Over Fed's Decision" Posted: 13 Sep 2012 04:30 PM PDT What took Ben Bernanke sixty minutes of mumbling about tools, word-twisting, and data-manipulating to kinda-sorta admit - that in fact he is lost; Ron Paul eloquently expresses in 25 seconds in this Bloomberg TV clip. Noting that "we are creating money out of thin air," Paul sums up Bernanke's position perfectly "We've Lost Control!"
25-second quick clip
Full 5 minute clip - must watch! from Mal-investment to Bernanke's frustration...
Paul's reaction to more Federal Reserve stimulus:
On potential unintended consequences:
On whether the Federal Reserve needs discipline:
On whether Bernanke should be pulling back liquidity and raising interest rates right now instead:
On whether Romney would do the right thing with the Federal Reserve if elected:
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| US Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast, the Fate for Gold Posted: 13 Sep 2012 04:25 PM PDT The following article was presented to the benefit of subscribers on September 12th, 2012. Rather than mimic a few previous articles I have penned, this one will focus on technical analysis of one Index, with interspersed commentary fitting to what is observed. The most interesting part I found from all of the analysis is how well the Elliott Wave pattern of the US Dollar Index matched initial expectations. At the end of the article, it is hoped that the reader has a better understanding of how economic situations unfolding over the next 8-12 months are going to ultimately hinge on the path of the US Dollar.
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| QE3 "Could Push Gold Over $1800" Posted: 13 Sep 2012 04:15 PM PDT WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices traded around $1730 an ounce Thursday morning in London, a few Dollars below where they started the week, while stock markets ticked lower ahead of today's policy announcement by the US Federal Reserve. Silver prices hovered around $33.10 per ounce – 1.8% down on the week – while other commodities were also broadly flat and US Treasuries gained.
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| Your “Bernanke-Proof” Portfolio Posted: 13 Sep 2012 03:35 PM PDT September 13, 2012
Sometimes, The 5 is a civilized publication, meant for "family viewing." Sometimes, events of the day get away from us. "The Wall Street Journal blog says of the Fed's actions today," continues the IM from a colleague following Mr. Bernanke's speech this afternoon. "'This is the ultimate demonstration of independence from politics.' "WTF?'"
Probably fitting given the early footage of young Benny practicing his trade early in life dug up by our friends at SilverDoctors.com:
"'We will create unlimited amounts of money forever', say the Fed 54 days before an election." Jeffrey Tucker comments "And the WSJ congratulates the Fed for being independent of politics?" Heh.
"Since past rounds of printing have failed to improve the labor market, most investors will interpret this as the Fed embarking on unlimited QE, with almost no chance of a reversal in the future. Hold your inflation hedges, which does not include most stocks. Most business owners and managers will be busy fundamentally rethinking their belief in the integrity of paper money; they will not be looking to hire more employees. "Given the timing of this decision, the Fed also just took a giant leap further into the political arena by increasing President Obama's re-election chances." {Ed note: Reelection chances aside, if you haven't "Bernanke-Proofed" your money yet, what are you waiting for? We've laid out a total of 47 different ways to avoid the shrinking dollar, right here.}
Now, you could say the market is nursing a hangover and trying to figure out who it was in bed with… and why… Chris is punching the clock today with two investment trends for a sobering market — hotels and banks. Both of them emerging from one overlooked revival: housing. "U.S. housing is a buy," Chris extols. "It is a cheap asset. Look to buy a house and rent it. (I've done it myself.) By the time the mainstream gets onto the idea, the bottom will be years behind us."
"Bankers funded lavish loans to buy hotels based on a sunny outlook that turned instead to rain," Chris explains. "The terms of these loans usually had maturity dates of five-seven years from issuance. In 2012, about 27% of these loans from the boom years come due. "According to Morningstar," he writes, "this pool of hotel loans was about $70 billion at the end of 2011. About 10% of them are already delinquent. About a third of them are on a 'watch list' — which is banker talk for 'I'm worried about the ability of the hotel to pay.' In short, there are a lot of troubled hotels. "So what's happening is that those maturing loans from that bubbly era can't support the debt based on today's lending standards," Chris explains. "If you are a borrower, you have two choices. You either cough up the cash to pay the debt down or you sell. "If a borrower chooses the latter, then there is a great opportunity for a well-funded buyer to come in and get a deal," says Chris. "This is a lesson I've been pounding away at in these pages this year. The best deals come from people who have to sell."
Supply: "Looking at the pipeline for new hotels beyond 2012," Chris forecasts, "there is not much new supply on the horizon. Over the next five years, the number of new hotels that could open represents less than 7% of total supply. To put that in perspective, consider that in boom years, hotel supply can grow 4% in just one year." Demand: "Demand for hotels generally follows the economy. If times are good, hotels fill up. If times are bad, they go half-empty. Easy enough. It is this rubber band action that makes hotels cyclical." "However," Chris says, "we again come at the scene after the storm has done its work. The two-year drop in demand from 2008-09 was the steepest and largest in the history of the lodging industry. The last two years have been strong on the demand side such that occupied rooms at the end of 2011 were the highest ever. So while it is true that room demand follows the economy, demand has always recovered and moved higher. "Mix the growing demand with the bulge of bad loans coming due and tepid supply growth and you get a good recipe for rising hotel occupancy rates and room rate increases. "As with the U.S. housing bust, so with the hotel bust," Chris says. "There is extraordinary opportunity in the rubble." Dig in, if you can.
Just last week, Matt muddied his boots with Big Oil producer Statoil in the Bakken oil formation. Now he's back and filled to the brim with updates on the latest in America's biggest boomtown. "Drill rigs are spinning 24 hours a day," Matt writes, "and well pumps are bringing oil to the surface every second, giving North Dakota a stronghold as the second-highest oil-producing state in the country. "With oil still perched well above $90 a barrel, there's plenty of money to be made in the hills of the Roughrider State," he assures. "By now, you've probably heard the shale story, but just to make sure we're on the same page, the enabling technology came in the form of two breakthrough techniques: horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. "Today, over 600,000 barrels per day are flowing from the ground in North Dakota. But soon, this number could be closer to a million. According to the Oil & Gas Journal, 'If the 2010-11 pace of well development continues and average well production holds, then North Dakota Bakken oil production reaches 1 million b/d in 2018.' "I think we could see 1 million b/d sooner than 2018," Matt predicts. "Heck, in January of 2010, the state was producing a mere 238,000 b/d — and since then, it's been a near straight-up level of production. We could see 1 million by the end of 2014… just you wait."
"This will mean great things for resource investors — especially those hunting for yield in a no interest world. Statoil is right in the thick of things, too. "With Statoil," Matt avers, "we're talking about a massive, diligent, safe, efficient, innovative company that is incrementally making money in America's shale patch. The Bakken is just one example of this. "As the energy boom surges ahead," he concludes, "Statoil will offer you a solid, safe way to play America's bountiful future."
"Follow the facts," he advises. "We're witness to an unfolding political-diplomatic-military debacle of historic proportions. Indeed, centuries from now, people will look back and say of our era, 'The two big things were when the Chinese landed on the moon, and the Middle East collapsed into utter turmoil and chaos.' "Geopolitical disaster is obvious in North Africa," he goes on, "and — just wait — it will ripple outward to other parts of the Middle East. It's all destined to knock global energy supplies for a loop. Trade patterns will change, while oil prices spike. "You need to invest ahead of this world-bending transformation."
"Basically," Byron recounts, "in January 2011, I told OI readers that Egypt is broke, due to lack of exportable oil. Also, for the past generation — actually, much longer — there's been essentially no economic growth in Egypt (let alone across much of the rest of the Middle East). "Everywhere you go in Egypt and across the Middle East, the bulk of people have no jobs. Part of it is that, for the past 25 years, most of the world's low-wage employment growth occurred in China, with a few other Asian lands picking up scraps of growth. "For the past 18 months in Egypt," he writes, "it's been only a question of time before the wheels fell off. And now the wheels are falling off. The future is now. "In 'our' collective world, the U.S.-Canadian-European-Asian economies do what they do. In developed nations everywhere, politicians and macroeconomic gurus pull their levers and sprinkle their magic fairy dust. Stock markets go up and down. We have our investment cycles in North America and Europe."
"In addition to the 30,000 drones the government wants in the air in the next five-10 years," our reader continues, "and 1.4 billion rounds of hollow-point ammunition (750 mm rounds purchased by the DHS, and 174,000 rounds by — uh — the Social Security Administration), we have this: creepy robotic land drones that could march around the cities with infrared cameras and shoot mounted weapons at selected human targets. "This is not from the laboratories of Darth Vader. Rather, it a DARPA-funded robotic army initiative. Currently, robots are playing a game they call 'follow the leader' — but could actually 'pursue' human prey. "The self-appointed elite," our reader concludes, "after having had 2,000 years — STILL have not answered Roman satirist Juvenal's question: 'Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?' Who will watch the watchmen?"
The 5: Before we get to the question and response, I'd like to take a slight detour and express my gratitude to Dave Gonigam. This has been a tough year in the Wiggin household. We've been dealing with some family health issues and have been unable to dedicate the time necessary to meet the strident daily deadline The 5 requires. Dave has heroically stepped in and kept The 5 running on a very tight schedule… paying close attention to a myriad of moving parts. Daily. And on weekends. At one point, not two weeks ago, I received a message on my Facebook page [link] saying "I'm not sure if I trust The 5 anymore without Addison writing it." The reader went on to criticize thematic choices made in that day's episode. [Hypothetical picture of Addison biting his tongue.] To put it mildly, I was offended. Dave Gonigam has spent his summer deftly connecting the dots from the [expletive deleted] tripe you get from the mainstream to the analysis we provide throughout the Agora Financial universe on a consistent basis… day in, day out through heat waves in Baltimore… a few power outages… and less-than-helpful direction from his erstwhile writing partner. (Ahem). In my mind, you should thank Dave for the effort he's put in, right here: 5minforecast@agorafinancial.com (Go ahead, we'll wait.) Mr. Gonigam has earned a much-needed rest. For the next two weeks, at least, you're stuck with me again. OK, back to the mailbag: "At the beginning of 2009," our patient reader observes, "the 30- year Treasury yield hit a low of 2.5% and the Dow hit a low of 7,000. At present, the 30-year yield is at 2.5%, but the Dow is topping 13,300! "What gives? "What happens when the 30-year yield goes negative?" The 5: Since we're fresh back on the page, we turned to our income specialist Jim Nelson for today's response: "As 30-year Treasuries are currently yielding 2.9%, it is extremely unlikely that they will ever go negative," Mr. Nelson writes." Ten-year notes have gone negative a few times, after accounting for inflation. But not 30-year bonds. "The question does bring up a couple things worth talking about. "Bonds have not fallen out of favor for stocks…" Nelson points out, "they've been bought up just as much. Treasury yields are now trading near historic lows, which seems impossible considering stocks have doubled over the past few years. There's a lot at play here, obviously. But two main themes continue to keep these securities in favor with investors. "First, the Fed is forcing rates down every way it can. Zero-bound fed funds rates through 2014 — probably into 2015, at least if you look at what has been said of late… and round after round of 'quantitative easing,' in which the Fed directly buys Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Throw in 'Operation Twist' and it's clear the Fed is trying to bolster riskier investments… specifically stocks. On that front, it's done its job. "If that were the whole picture," Jim continues, "we'd probably see some of these rates on Treasuries go up. They haven't, because that's not the whole picture. Where else are you going to go for safe yields? Europe? Japan? "The U.S. is the last government investors still (somehow) trust. And that's not going to change, even with a potential Moody's downgrade. S&P did it last year. And while the stock market reeled for about two weeks, Treasury yields actually went down. Meaning they had more buyers, even though they were just downgraded for the first time ever. "If you're right and we somehow see negative yields on long-dated Treasuries, it won't change any of this. Investors have already been willing to pay governments to protect their money," Jim points out. "Yields in Japan, Germany and Switzerland have all been negative in the recent past. And after inflation," he concludes, "so have certain ones here in the States." [Negative interest rates are the reason Jim recommends his readers devote s substantial amount of their portfolio towards high dividend paying blue-chip companies.] "Some investors have already started moving into these stocks," says Jim. "But we think a lot more are about to begin piling in." If you haven't made your move yet, now would be a good time. Cheers, Addison Wiggin The 5 Min. Forecast P.S. We're glad to see some of our favorite themes have continued to gain traction in our absence. We've got some catching up to do, for example, on the impending (and ongoing) collapse of China, the mainstreaming of the "gold standard" in the wake of the political conventions… and a plethora of new investment solutions worked out by our crack team of analysts. I don't know if you've seen our report on the Oil War in the Middle East before, but given the days' events in Libya and Egypt, I urge you to reread it now. Here's a description:
(Breaking news: As we speak, we're tracking new information that indicates Israeli military action against Iran before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Imagine what that would do to oil prices?) You can get a free copy of Byron's prescient forecast by enrolling in our Equity Reserve program today. And… if you do… you'll also get a free copy of our special forecast on the housing market called, Becoming a $14 Landlord: How to Cash in on Distressed Properties, Without Fixing a Single, Leaky Faucet due out next Tuesday and Jim Nelson's latest report, Income You Can Count On: A "Personal Pension" Strategy Anyone Can Follow… For complete details, follow this link or call John Wilkinson at (866) 361-7662.
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Benny Has a Printing Press - QE3 Begins Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:51 PM PDT | |
| Buying Bonds vs. Buying Gold, Which Would You Rather Own? Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:39 PM PDT This past week was a major catalyst for the precious metals, as they closed the week up strongly based on strong fundamentals for the sector. We have been anticipating the next catalyst for the PM sector to start making a strong advance ... Read More...
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| Email from Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:38 PM PDT September 13, 2012 Mogambo Guru I was immediately intrigued with a particular email I recently received when I noticed that it was, for a pleasant change of pace, not venom-spewing hate mail or a death threat, like, for example, this other one from this morning. It reads "Dear Stupid Mogambo Idiot (SMI), I think you should just shut up your stupid loud mouth, like your wonderful wife tells you. And help out around the house sometimes, too, but you never do because you are just an irritating, lazy old man who spends his time complaining about the stupid Federal Reserve creating so much excess money that We're Freaking Doomed (WFD) to be destroyed by inflation in consumer prices, like I care about any of that monetary crap when I am up to here in laundry." The writer, obviously a blubbering nutcase, continued "If I was your wife, what I would really want is for you to take the garbage out and wash the damned car, and maybe stop being such a distant, ineffective father and an annoying, worthless husband who only did one good thing in his whole life, which was to buy gold, silver and oil because the evil Federal Reserve was creating so much money, and the prices of gold, silver and oil zoomed just like you said they would, and they will surely continue to rise, just like you said they will, but which has nothing to do with your being such a lousy father and crappy husband. (Signed) Anonymous Person." You can see the kind of abuse I get from total strangers, which is, now that you mention it, highly reminiscent of the crap I take around here, too. Instead, I am happy to say that the better email was from Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Burt L., who sent some interesting news. Beginning with the standard salutation of groveling subservience "Magnificent Mogambo Master", he went on to write "I went to the Enterprise Florida web site and found the attached 2009 through 2011 chart of (primarily gold) exports to Switzerland," which he dutifully included so that I could see for myself. Sure enough, the Florida-Origin Exports to Switzerland show that "Gold (Incl Plat Plated), Unwr, Semifr Or Powder" increased from $42.2 million in 2010, to $201.6 million in 2011, almost a five-fold increase in one year! One state to one country! And little ones, at that! Now, $201.6 million in exports, of what appears to be gold, is certainly a lot of money, and it is just about enough to get me the through the weekend, anyway. I laugh at my own joke "Hahahaha!" Perhaps you noticed that I am laughing through my tears, as, in fact, in no year did anyone ever give me $201.6 million, while almost every year nobody gave me anything but a hard time and/or a Royal Screw Job (RSJ), which is kind of like an ordinary "hard time," but with an additional punishment that you pay out lots of dollars, that you don't believe you needed to pay, but there is nothing that you can do about it, and nothing that you can prove. All you can do is go down there, storming in, blabbering incoherently in an indignant rage and yell at the manager "Well, you gave me a Royal Screw Job (RSJ) that time! But the joke's on you! Hahaha! All those dollars you choked out of me are losing purchasing power with each tick of the clock -- tick, tock, tick, tock! -- because the horrible Federal Reserve keeps creating so much excess money and credit, which dilutes each one of those dollars! Hahahaha! Chump! "And," continuing in hysterical outrage, "the only satisfaction that I get from this whole disagreeable episode is the knowledge that you are obviously too stupid to understand the need to buy gold, silver and oil when the money supply is being so terrifyingly expanded by the foul Federal Reserve like this, and so you won't buy any, and you will end up broke and busted-out like all the other losers. Loser! Then I shall laugh at YOU! Hahahaha!" As you can probably tell, after getting another Royal Screw Job (RSJ) in what seems to be a long line of RSJs, I could use $201.6 million right about now, but, unfortunately, we are not talking about me. And we are not even talking about the $201.6 million in Florida gold exports to Switzerland, but we have moved on, and are now talking about the category of "Waste & Scrap of Prec Metal Or Other Cont Prec Mtl" which was #1 on the list of exports out of Florida to Switzerland. I am not exactly sure what "Waste & Scrap of Prec Metal Or Other Cont Prec Mtl" is, but I figure it seems to be the "We Buy Gold" people registering a staggering $6,811 million ($6.811 billion!) in precious metals-related exports to Switzerland, which alone represent almost all the Florida 2011 exports to that country, which totaled $7,291.0 million ($7.291 billion). And this $7,291.0 million in "2011 total Florida exports to Switzerland" was up massively from a paltry $5,011.6 million in 2010, and up more than double from the $3,244.0 million total exports in 2009, two years previous! Wow! What is going on here? This chart from eFlorida.com is full of interesting stuff, like about silver, exports of which increased to $10 million in 2011, up from (according to the chart) literally zero dollars in 2010. This is all pretty amazing, as JMR Burt realizes, too, and says "Amazing, since Florida has no gold or silver mines." "Well," I was tempted to say, "If you think THAT is amazing, then what do you make of exports of 'Silver (Incl Prec Plated), Unwr, Semimfr Or Powder' increasing from literally zero in 2010 to $10 million in 2011, yet which is, according to this report, an increase of an odd 45,494.4%? You would think going from zero to 10 million would be an infinite increase, wouldn't you? Not 45,494.4%! Pretty odd, huh? Huh? Pretty odd, wouldn't you say?" And this is not the only odd thing! To prove such a provocative statement, listen as I say "Oddly enough, silver exports from Florida to Switzerland in 2009 show a dash ('-') instead of a zero! Oddly enough, a dash! What is a dash supposed to mean, except as some secret, coded message, probably from a sinister, secret government agency watching your every move, or maybe spies at the corrupt commodity exchanges are communicating with alien space creatures from beyond the solar system?" And the next two biggest percentage-increases in Florida exports to Switzerland are chump change, being "Lifting, handling, Loading & Unload Machines" (although only $800,000 in 2011, but up an odd 1,755.5% from the zero exports in 2010) and "Screws, Bolts, Nuts, Washers Etc, Iron Or Steel" ($1.1 million in 2011, up 505.9% from 2010 and zero in 2009, which is pretty odd, too). And oddly enough, Florida exports to Switzerland of "Citrus Fruit, Fresh Or Dried" was only $1.1 million, despite citrus products being The Thing for which Florida is supposedly known. As a guy who is naturally paranoid and sees conspiracies everywhere, I am instantly on the nervous alert at these odd, and thus scary, goings-on. I find myself constantly re-evaluating my situation in terms of the nearest exit and where to take cover in the event of a full-scale, all-out, guns blazing, urban-warfare, us-versus-them, dog-eat-dog shoot-out, if it comes to that, and it probably will, if any of those dark, Hollywood post-apocalyptic movies or invasions of space monsters are even REMOTELY true. Fortunately, one thing I know --for a fact! -- to be true, and not odd, is that gold, silver and oil stocks are the place to be when the government is doing such massive deficit-spending and allowing the Federal Reserve to create so incredibly, impossibly, catastrophically much money and credit. And, in light of that, for a last bit of "oddly enough" incidents, it is odd that very few people are buying gold, silver and oil at these absolute bargain prices, here at the beginning of the inflationary horror that awaits us. But for those who do, however, it is "Whee! This investing stuff is easy! And not the least bit odd!" 
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| Silver Liberation Army eyes $150 Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:30 PM PDT $150 Silver & An Ocean Of Paper Money To Flood The System "Max got us into Silver at $11."
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 4% Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:21 PM PDT Gold dropped down to $1720.80 by a little after noon EST, but it then rallied to as high as $1772.29 after the fed's statement and ended with a gain of 1.98%. Silver soared to as high as $34.781 and ended with a gain of 4.34%.
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| Gold and Silver Miners Breakout As Open Ended QE3 Announced Posted: 13 Sep 2012 02:10 PM PDT The Fed has announced the next round of QE after the Europeans, Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans make stimulative moves to devalue their currencies and boost their economies. This is very bullish for gold and silver. Gold and silver is extending its rally from early August while the miners breakout being led by the silver miners We have reiterated for some time that the Fed's solitary success has been in inflating U.S. debt assets to create the feeling of wealth through record low interest rates in order that consumers with deep pockets will spend and invest in quality companies which in turn will create capital expenditures for an ongoing recovery. So far this has not happened. Record low interest rates until mid 2015 and open ended QE means the government is manipulating the market in order to lend money very cheaply. This capital was not flowing to the undervalued resource stocks but was being kept by institutions in cash or in large cap dividend paying stocks, which have improved earnings per share at the expense of laying off thousands of workers. Money sitting in banks at 0% interest was not a solution to this economic malaise. The Fed acted aggressively surprising savers with open ended QE which gives the Central Bankers a tool to devalue the dollar on a monthly basis according to how they see the economy. The Fed is forcing cheap dollars into the economy, small businesses and into the resource sector, which is critical for high paying and indigenous jobs. Even within the Democrat Party pressure was put on the Federal Reserve director to make increased asset purchases right here and now before the election. A few weeks ago, Senator Schumer from New York makes no bones at being quoted, "Get to work…Mr. Chairman!". This is especially pertinent as Schumer states that because of the Congressional impasse the Fed is the "only game in town". It must be noted that the spinmeisters know that when the general equity markets rally to new highs, then the probability favors the incumbents who usually win by a landslide. The S&P500 and Dow Jones is breaking into new two year highs which may make the voters feel that the economic storm has passed and good times are here again. These accommodative moves will be quite painful to savers who have been sitting on a record level of cash and U.S. debt and have been shaken out of their gold (UGL) and silver (AGQ) holdings which are exploding to the upside.  The precious metal charts are forming bullish formations as their 50 day moving averages are moving to penetrate the 200 day moving average to the upside. Let us look at the gold miners (GDX). At $52 (GDX) has broken out and formed a strong bottom, our near term target is $60. The (GDXJ) is also breaking out at $24 and breaking through resistance. Our next target on the GDXJ is $30. (SLV) has made an important breakout and our next near term target is $38. The silver miners (SIL) which have been the best performer since our silver breakout alert made an important breakout at $23 and we should see a move off the double bottom in July upward to $30.
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You can't accuse Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke of not living up to his nickname. Back in 2002, Bernanke delivered a speech entitled "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here" in which he referenced a statement by economist Milton Friedman about fighting deflation by dropping money from a helicopter. Well, it might be time for a new nickname for Bernanke because what he did today was a lot more than drop money from a helicopter. Today the Federal Reserve announced that QE3 will begin on Friday, but it is going to be much different from QE1 and QE2. Both of those rounds of quantitative easing were of limited duration. This time, the quantitative easing is going to be open-ended. The Fed is going to buy 40 billion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities per month until they have decided that the economy is in good enough shape to stop. For those that get confused by terms like "quantitative easing" and "mortgage-backed securities", what the Federal Reserve is essentially saying is this: "We're going to print a bunch of money and buy stuff for as long as we feel it is necessary." In addition, the Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels all the way through mid-2015. The course that the Federal Reserve has set us on is utter insanity. Ben Bernanke can rain money down on us all he wants, but it is not going to do much at all to help the real economy. However, it will definitely hasten the destruction of the U.S. dollar.
Earlier 
"Hey, look at this s#!t." read an IM that popped up on my screen this morning.
Ben's early years: G'head, call him "Spanky"
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