saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- August 26 Got Gold Report Courtesy Release
- Do something nice for Australia – short AUDUSD
- Russia , Turkey, Ukraine Add Bullion to Reserves
- Fed Easing Discussion 'Will Push Gold Higher'
- Fed Easing Discussion "Will Push Gold Higher", But Euro Problems "Havent Disappeared"
- Silver: Signaling Monetary Supernova or Cause?
- Silver Market Update
- Flat-Lining Momentum
- Top Ten Forms of Silver and Gold Sold
- Inflation Threat: Causes, Components And Cover
- Smart Money Acknowledges its Big Miss With GATA and Gold
- Alasdair Macleod: The purpose of market intervention
- Peter Brimelow: Is gold heading to $4,500?
- Indian gold buying picks up as festival season kicks off
- Republicans tease with gold standard, but idea seen full of bugs
- Gold Set for Best Year Since 2010 as Stimulus Bets Increase
- 3 Singapore Stocks With Semi-Annual Dividends And No Tax Withholding For A Dividend Growth Portfolio
- Front Running QE3 - Part 2
- Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc., Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. - M&A Call
- 'No QE' Bernanke Will Disappoint Markets Friday
- Top 5 Insider Buys Filed On August 27
- Bullion is Just Getting Started
- ETF Industry Growth Overtaking Stock Market?
- Wink Wink, Nudge Nudge, China
- Central Planning: The Failings of a Nazi Economy
| August 26 Got Gold Report Courtesy Release Posted: 28 Aug 2012 06:50 AM PDT HOUSTON -- On Sunday, August 26, we shared a new video Got Gold Report update with our valued paying Subscribers. Today, after a short delay and as a courtesy to our entire readership, we have added that video update – in its entirety – to our YouTube hub for the general public. We hope you find it worthy of your time. This report takes a look at the changes in large trader positioning for gold and silver futures on the COMEX in New York. Below the new report is an invitation to join us at the fast-approaching New Orleans Investment Conference. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitments of traders report (COT) released Friday, August 24, contained the positioning of the largest traders of gold and silver futures as of the close on Tuesday, August 21, just as both gold and silver were beginning their breakout moves higher last week. Gold advanced more than 3% and silver jumped nearly 10% following breakouts of tight, bottom looking consolidations. Both precious metals have advanced up to challenge long-period flag or pennant consolidation patterns, which we also detail in the report. Just a reminder, the video is best viewed using the full screen option and a high resolution. Both adjustments are at lower right on the YouTube viewer. We don't know how he does it, but Brien manages each year to bring in top financial and resource-related talent. The world is facing very vexing and potentially game changing challenges today and in the near future. Navigating the stormy global seas and protecting our wealth and purchasing power just ahead will be the challenge of a lifetime if the signals we see developing continue. This year's event is billed: "Profits and Safety During Global Chaos." An apt title if you ask us. We believe people would do well to listen to the council and advice that this year's faculty will be sharing with NOIC attendees. According to a note Brien just sent out, this year's faculty includes: "Sarah Palin, Dr. Charles Krauthammer, Rick Santelli, Dr. Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Stephen Leeb. Plus: Bob Prechter, Brent Cook, Adrian Day, Lawrence Roulston, Louis James, Marin Katusa, Mark Skousen, Steven Hochberg, Frank Holmes, Ian McAvity, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Gene Arensberg, Thom Calandra, Scott Gibson, Keith Schaefer, Robert Meier, Bill Murphym, Chris Powell and more. There will also be a large number of resource related companies exhibiting there and your editor will be giving a tour of several that are on our priority target list. The conference gets started on Wednesday, October 24 and runs through Saturday, the 27th. You'll want to reserve early in order to be sure to get a great room in the very elegant host hotel, the New Orleans Hilton Riverside, which has a terrific view of the Mississippi River and is just a short walk from New Orleans' storied French Quarter with all its sights, sounds, great food and quaint classic architecture. One last thing. In years past the NOIC has sold completely out well in advance of the event, so don't wait till the last minute to register. In fact, if you know you are going to attend but haven't yet made arrangements, just click on the link below to secure your spot at the conference and in the host hotel today. You'll be very glad you did. See you all in N'awlins! Reserve for the New Orleans Investment Conference here: |
| Do something nice for Australia – short AUDUSD Posted: 28 Aug 2012 05:24 AM PDT
In Hedge Fund Market Wizards Colm O' Shea talks about how "the great trades are obvious" (see our TW writeup). This is not true of all trades – sometimes they can be totally unexpected – but it is very true in certain cases where the macro is just in-your-face compelling. In hindsight we feel strongly that shorting the Aussie will turn out to be one of these "obvious" style trades, given Australia's extreme leverage to the China story, the commodity supercycle, the attendant down under credit and housing bubble, and so on. Given the "obvious" nature of some of these monster trades, why do so few traders profit? A couple reasons: For one, a lot of traders are focused on short to intermediate term time frames – which is no bad thing at all, but it means they wind up jumping in and out for small bites rather than building a big position over time and catching a monster trend by the tail. For two, it requires real trading skill to time the entry on a potentially excellent trade, even when the drivers are well known, and sometimes you have to stick with the idea for a long period of time as awareness slowly develops. As a general rule of thumb, for instance, if you are "ahead of the curve" on a big macro idea it might take the rest of the world six to twelve months, or even eighteen months, to come around to your point of view, at which point many traders have lost interest, lost too much capital with premature entries and lack of risk control, or otherwise given up. The alternative to this problem is just to put on a big negative carry options position and wait, but that can be problematic too (ahem, Kyle Bass). Bottom line, you have to be willing to trade around your ideas, stay vigilant, and pick your spots to get traction with tight reward / risk points if you want to get a piece of these big waves. (That is what we seek to do in the Mercenary Live Feed, though the big wave type positions are augmented with much more frequent swing trade entries and exits to generate short-term profits as long-term positions slowly build momentum.) NEWS FLOW
Some great write-ups as to why the lucky country is running out of luck… shorting a currency may seem an anti-social act, but ironically right now Australia would be helped by a more competitive exchange rate, given the 'Dutch disease' component of AUDUSD strength (natural resource sector crowding out the rest of the economy) and excessive inflows into Australian government bonds. Not that we make trades with a social well being component, of course… Soros tried that with the ruble and lost a couple billion. We love Oz as a country though (great people, beautiful weather and cities) and look forward to getting back down there one of these days.
More short Oz fodder… the way to play the China implosion is through Australia in our view. And the idea that China's new "stimulus" is going to change things is laughable… when the problem is economic slowdown because you already built way too much infrastructure you don't need, building more of it is not going to change a damn thing. Except, perhaps, to reveal to the world just how bankrupt and logic-free your plan is… at some point the world is going to wake up to the fact that the China perma-bulls are dead wrong and that all of the stimulus hope propping up the big three (Europe, US, China) has only set up the global financial markets for an even harder fall (pun intended).
As we tweeted this morning, "Zero Hedge whistling cheerfully as crash season approaches…"
Charles Evans is a dangerous idiot. It continues to boggle the mind… why are these nonsense solutions taken seriously?
As the foreman said in the Springsteen song: "Looks like these jobs are goin', boys, and they ain't comin' back…" Lottery tickets are a good approximation for many boomers' approach to retirement these days. This should prove interesting. Will the negative interest rate trend catch back on? We continue to feel that expectations of runaway inflation are premature… that deflation is still what the world needs to watch out for… and that government bonds in general could come roaring back as stimulus efforts around the globe fail… the real contrarian notion here is being bullish the U.S. dollar, not bearish, and expecting a rude wake-up call for those who think the world's central banks have done too much, with the reality being that the scale of global credit collapse means they may have ultimately done too little… or simply not had the ability to do enough even if they tried…
And in other news, grass is green and water is wet… CHART NOTES
We remain ~40% net short with profits on all positions. Not pressing in this light holiday week, have enough downside exposure for now given possibility for "algo games" (HFT programs pushing stuff around). Significant opportunities will be coming soon enough, with September slated to be a big month. (Jackson Hole upcoming, stimulus resolution, Greek mini-finale though likely not the last, etc.) For more on our positioning, thoughts, trading and portfolio commentary, real-time executions etc., check out the Mercenary Live Feed. JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com)   p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center! p.p.s. If you haven't already, check out the Mercenary Live Feed! p.p.s. follow us on Stocktwits & Twitter! @MercenaryJack and @MercenaryMike
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| Russia , Turkey, Ukraine Add Bullion to Reserves Posted: 28 Aug 2012 05:17 AM PDT Gold edged off of its four month high as some participants may have decided to take profits ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1. Market participants expect speeches by Bernanke to offer clues with regard to further quantitative easing. |
| Fed Easing Discussion 'Will Push Gold Higher' Posted: 28 Aug 2012 04:50 AM PDT Spot market gold prices traded just above $1,660 an ounce during Tuesday morning's London session, a few dollars down on last week's close, while stocks and commodities were also broadly flat on the day and US Treasuries gained. |
| Fed Easing Discussion "Will Push Gold Higher", But Euro Problems "Havent Disappeared" Posted: 28 Aug 2012 04:37 AM PDT |
| Silver: Signaling Monetary Supernova or Cause? Posted: 28 Aug 2012 04:23 AM PDT If the pricing in the world's commodity and financial markets accurately reflected anything but the culmination of decisions made by high frequency trading systems, then the recent price action in the silver market might have something meaningful behind it. |
| Posted: 28 Aug 2012 04:00 AM PDT Clive Maund |
| Posted: 28 Aug 2012 03:22 AM PDT The markets are still waiting on some resolution in Europe and remain somewhat stable on no major news. Closing prices are as of August 23rd. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 13,057.46 -115.30 on normal volume with peaked, toppy pricing. Momentum has also peaked and price dropped below the 20-day moving average. Volumes have been very light and trading activity none-trending. European problems have been a wet blanketing concern on traders and investors world-wide. Some of the largest companies lost ground today as the charts peaked and worries about resolution for Greece, Italy and Spain were the headliners. Further, some of the larger corporations were lowering earnings projectionsfor 2012. Resistance is 13,100 and support is 13,000. It now appears the 50-day average could be the primary price support for Friday at 12,956.40 on today's close. Since tomorrow is the last trading session this week, we would expect a flat to down day on Friday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1402.08 -11.41 on 95% of normal volume on flat-lining momentum. This market topped and peaked right on the 1425 price as we did forecast. While the price fell back to 1400 support, it remains above all the moving averages. Further, it is supported by the 20-day average and the rising channel line touching 1400 even. It is a positive for this market that the selling was mild under current market conditions and that fact is supported by the Nasdaq market telling us stocks look weaker but they remain in the green without any major selling as of this date. I am expecting the 500 index to be supported on Friday holding to 1400 or better. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 644.71 -5.19 on flattening momentum and normal volume. There were some big companies in this group that were sellers on their forecasts of lower earnings for 2012. Yet, support is the 20-day average at 642.69 and the close was higher than all moving averages. This is an election year and those with power involved with moving markets are determined to hold-up the prices until voting day is over. We think that remains a challenge and are still forecasting stronger selling days on September 23-25, but of course that remains to be seen. Resistance is 650 on the peak and the current chart top. I am expecting a mild selling event tomorrow dropping price at the close about two points to 642.69. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2762.02 -21.40. Expect traders to hold onto the 50-day moving average tomorrow, Friday at 2663.92. Momentum is up but peaking. Volume was 90% of normal. Price closed above all moving averages, but has hard resistance at 2800 projected from an old double top at that price near the end of March this year. The 20-day moving average is 2719.36 and is a nearby primary support. A closer support and stronger one is the price of 2750. Today's trading range was very narrow indicating investors did not want to either buy or sell with any conviction. For the next trading cycle we should first expect a normal ABC side to down correction followed by some mild selling at worst taking price down to 2700-2750. We can see a rally in shares from near the end of August to the middle of September. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 148.78 +0.96 on falling but newly supported momentum. The US Dollar and bonds were recently selling as the Euro got some energy from media talk in Europe. As the reality of Europe's sinking problems hit home with more delays, the US Bond market got immediate buying pressures. In fact today, and yesterday price on the 30's jumped from near 146 to nearly 149.00. Today's close is just a few ticks under the 50-day moving average at 148.91, which is new resistance. With the Euro's close very near, today's low looks for more Euro selling on Friday pushing-up the 30-year bonds to 148.91-149.00, or even slightly more to 149.50. Gold: Closed at 1670.40 +14.60 after rising smartly in a new breakout this week. Price is now +$50 above most moving averages and momentum lines crossed to the bull side. There was hard resistance on the 200-day moving average near 1622.50 that suppressed the price for over two months. We are through and past that number with the next higher resistance being 1,708. The 50% retracement from high-low for this year is 1736.50 and is our minimum higher price for the balance of 2012. However, we can see gold rising a lot further than that on negative Euro problems and domestic finance and discontent in the USA. Also, most all of Asia is slipping so gold has become the go-to asset. Expect more Friday buying for gold taking the price to 1675-1685 resistance. Silver: Closed at 30.54 +0.64 on rising momentum and during yesterday's and today's session on a hard up-tick in price from just above 27.50. Silver can move hard and fast and that is what we see today. Our next major leg up should take the price to 34.48 resistance. With the strength of this week, the price has past all moving averages including the 200-day at 30.26, which is now major support. There is some intermediate resistance at 32.48 and some higher at 36.08 and 37.50. With September being the best cycle for silver, watch for new and very strong moves to the bull side through September 7. Expect more nearby gains on Friday with probably +$.48 cents. XAU: Closed at 168.41 +0.36 on rising momentum and the very important metal to shares ratio. The ratio is our best predictor of price and the moving averages crossed over to the bull side during the first week of August. Silver has been selling down gradually since the end of September last year. With new bottoming supports in March and June the pattern set-up is for strong buying for the next two weeks. We could easily see a silver rise of +$5.00 or more in this cycle. Silver bullion could provide a hard incentive for the silver shares. Expect more buying on Friday for the XAU with nearby resistance at 170.99 on the 200-day moving average. I think this resistance can hold us back on Friday, but next week, the price should breakout again with more buying toward 180.00. US Dollar: Closed at 81.37 -0.19 on falling momentum as the Euro has been rising on the inverse trade. Hard support is 80.60 on the 200-day moving average. Price is a few ticks under the 20-day and the 50-day averages. We are near to some reversals in currencies and the Euro-US Dollar is headed in that direction. Stocks fell today primarily as the authorities in Europe are not dealing with their credit problems to the satisfaction of big traders. This knocked back shares in the Dow today over 100 points. While important meetings are being held with France, Germany and others on Greece's condition, we see nothing for Friday propping the Euro currency any more this week. This should cause the Euro to peak for selling and the dollar to support near 81.50, preparing to rise again. Crude Oil: Closed at 96.08 after peaking and selling back from near 98.00. New support and resistance is between 95.50 and 96.50. The trading range is 94.50 to 98.50. Oil came down hard over one dollar today and closed low in the trading range. This means more selling on Friday despite the momentum continuing to rise. Oil reserves were getting tighter and this caused the prices to rise. We have had a strong buying cycle from $77 to $98 and are now in the normal ABC correction cycle. Moving averages are all under the close running between $91 and $94. We think the next nearby low could be $95.00 plus or minus some cents. Look for more selling and a weaker Friday to about $95- $95.50. CRB: Closed at 307.24 +3.76 on crossed over moving momentum averages with a break-through of a hard channel line just above 300.00, which is now new support. There is also stronger support for the CRB on the 43 day moving average at 302.46 and the solidly averaged price of 300.00 itself. We touched 375 about one year ago and are entering the normal fall bull cycle for commodities. We have just beaten the hard resistance prices and averages and will now see some mild corrections. After this corrective cycle is complete, expect more new buying next week. It appears we get about 300-305 for Friday.   This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Top Ten Forms of Silver and Gold Sold Posted: 28 Aug 2012 03:00 AM PDT Silverstockreport |
| Inflation Threat: Causes, Components And Cover Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:39 AM PDT By Stock Whiz: Through most of the recovery following the collapse of the financial system, policy makers had spent far more time warning about deflation, (led by Ben Bernanke flooding the economy with money), growth in emerging markets, coupled with draft and deleveraging in developed markets -- has shifted market dialogue in a different direction. According to John Maynard Keynes, inflation is a fearsome and stealthy force that could steal and pilfer one's wealth. In this article we seek to understand the major sources of inflation now and how to protect from it. First, deeply indebted developed countries need to grow their way out of debt and inflation remains a powerful tool. I have written about the lengthy deleveraging process which the developed countries need to undergo in my previous article "Ray Dalio's Primer On Deleveraging". While U.S. (SPY) is undergoing a beautiful deleveraging process balancing the options available -- austerity, debt restructuring Complete Story » |
| Smart Money Acknowledges its Big Miss With GATA and Gold Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt wasn't an overly exciting trading day on Monday...as volume was virtually non-existent. The attempted price rally in gold, such as it was, at the Far East open didn't amount to much. From there the price declined back to below Friday's close by mid-morning in New York...but managed to close a few dollars in the black by the end of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. in New York. But then someone came along and was happy to sell off gold in the electronic market...and gold finished the Monday session down $7.10 on the day. Net volume was around 80,000 contracts...but in actual fact, was probably lower than that.
Silver made several attempts to move well above the $31 spot price, but there was always a not-for-profit seller waiting in the wings to make sure that didn't happen. The price moved above the $31 level in all three markets yesterday...the Far East, London...and New York...and as you already know, every attempt experienced the same fate. Once Comex trading ended, the silver priced got sold back below $31...and below Friday's close...and at least 50 cents off its high of the day. Silver closed at the $30.72 spot...down a dime. The roll-overs out of the September delivery month are now in full swing...and once these were removed from the volume data, the real trading amounted to only about 15,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened around the 81.60 mark...and then wandered around either side of unchanged...but finished up about 5 basis points on the day at 81.65. Nothing to see here, folks...please move along.
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price around during the New York trading session. There were trading mostly around unchanged...but were slightly in the black until about 12:45 p.m. From there they began to head south...and really began selling off once the Comex closed at 1:30 p.m. Eastern. The stocks closed just off their lows...with the HUI finishing down 1.33% on the day.
The silver stocks finished lower on the day as well, although there was the odd green arrow amongst the ones that I follow. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.09%.
(Click on image to enlarge) As the August delivery month winds down, the CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 18 gold and 83 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. In silver, it was Jefferies and ABN Amro as the only two short/issuers...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the biggest long/stopper with 76 contracts to be received on Wednesday. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but over at SLV they reported that 1,453,740 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn. Based on the price action of the previous week, it should be obvious that this silver was desperately needed elsewhere. Silver should be pouring into SLV, just like gold is pouring into GLD...but that's not happening. Since August 15th, SLV has only had 1.36 million ounces of silver deposited on at net basis. During the same period, GLD has had about 911,600 ounces deposited. My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that around 5.6 million ounces is still owned to SLV over that same period of time...and that's over and above the 13.7 million ounces that is still owed to SLV by way of the current short position. One small item that I missed in my Saturday column was a minor increase in the silver holdings over at Sprott's Physical Silver Trust on Friday. Their website showed that they received another 30,000 ounces. Nick Laird and I are looking for about one million ounces more. If it has been received, it certainly hasn't been reported on Sprott's website as of yet. There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. The Comex-approved depositories only received one good delivery bar of silver on Friday... tipping the scales at 958.100 troy ounces...but they shipped 949,571 troy ounces out the door to parts unknown. The link to that action is here. Since I don't have a chart for you...here's a doggie dish full of baby Meerkats instead. My daughter Kathleen sent me this too-cute-for-words photo a couple of weeks back, and I've been looking for the appropriate moment to post it in my column...and today's the day.
I have the usual number of stories for a Tuesday, which is quite a few. The possibility of another 'in your ear' moment is almost a certainty. It's just a matter of when...and how bad it will be. Eric Sprott Cautions Investors to Fear the Financial System. Labour strife returns in S.Africa's platinum belt. Gold Set for Best Year Since 2010 as Stimulus Bets Increase. SLV reports 1.4 million ounces withdrawn. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeCash Moves by HSBC in InquiryProsecutors investigating the movement of money by global banks suspect HSBC of laundering money for Mexican drug cartels and moving cash for Saudi Arabian banks with ties to terrorists, according to federal authorities with direct knowledge of the investigations. The federal and state prosecutors are also investigating whether HSBC flouted United States law by transferring money through its American subsidiary for sanctioned nations, including Iran, Sudan and North Korea. The weight of the accusations could force HSBC, which has already set aside $700 million to cover the cost of potential fines, to pay at least $1 billion to settle the inquiry, said the authorities with knowledge of the investigation, which would make it the largest such settlement in history. The money-laundering accusations against HSBC so far are more extensive than the potential violation of United States sanctions that is the focus of the investigations against other foreign banks, including Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank of Germany, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole of France and the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the law enforcement authorities, who requested anonymity because the investigations are continuing. No surprises here. As I said many months ago, most of the world's major international banks are into all this criminal activity because there's big money to be made. The fine that HSBC and other banks will, or have already paid, are just a licensing fee. This story showed up on The New York Times website on Friday sometime...and I thank Donald Sinclair for providing our first story of the day. The link is here.  Share wars: how the robots are robbing youThe prevalence of computer-generated trading in the modern share market has created an unpredictable, and sometimes dangerous, environment for investors. Robots don't have to take over the world when they've got share markets in their clutches already. Unlike a mere mortal trading, there isn't even a broker between machine and, well, machine. All that stands between them is a fee the Australian Stock Exchange collects. Self-automated algorithms can generate 150 trades in the blink of an eye and, unlike ordinary investors or even the big funds, have been given the ultimate privilege of plugging straight into the ASX's computer. They're the ultimate inside traders. Here's the high-frequency trading story from a 'down under' perspective. It was in the Sunday edition of The Sydney Morning Herald...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for sharing it with us. The link is here.  Alasdair Macleod: The purpose of market interventionGoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod explains today why big business loves government intervention in the economy: It's a source of subsidy and price fixing and thus is anti-market and anti-consumer. This story was posted over at the goldmoney.com Internet site yesterday...and I plucked it from a GATA release. The link is here.  Argentine leader's image falls as inflation soarsArgentine President Cristina Fernandez's popularity sank to 30 percent in August, less than half of what it was a year earlier, according to a poll published on Sunday that portrayed a country worried about crime and high inflation. Since then the economy has slowed, and the poll suggests most people are not buying Fernandez's argument that external factors, such as Europe's financial mess, are mostly to blame. Annual inflation, clocked by private analysts at over 20 percent, was another worry voiced in the survey. The government fines economists who publish their inflation estimates, which tend to double or triple the official figures. This Reuters story was filed from Buenos Aires on Sunday afternoon...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it along. The link is here.  China announces £800bn stimulus to boost confidenceOne Chinese province after another has stepped forward over the last fortnight to announce their plans, in what appears to be a propaganda effort to reassure the public that the economy is still on track. Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, promised over the weekend that the Chinese government would intensify its efforts to boost the economy in the second half of the year. On a visit to Guangdong, the heartland of China's export industry, Mr Wen warned that "there will still be a lot of problems and uncertainties in exports going forward. The third quarter is a crucial period". Analysts said the government could now steer the value of the yuan lower, after a gain of 4.7pc last year against the dollar. Further export tax rebates could also be used to bail out manufacturers. This article was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early on Sunday evening...and goes on to state that "Many of the new stimulus projects appear to simply be restatements of existing commitments, and there was no indication of how they will be funded." I thank Donald Sinclair once again for providing this story...and the link is here.  At Summit Meeting, Iran Has a Message for the WorldAt the entrance to the convention hall where Iran is sponsoring an international summit meeting are the crumpled wreckage of three cars driven by Iranian nuclear scientists who have been killed or hurt in bomb attacks. Placards with the photos of the scientists and their children stand alongside. The message is clear. As Iran plays host to the biggest international conference the Islamic republic has organized in its 33-year history, it wants to tell its side of the long standoff with the Western powers, which are increasingly convinced that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. Tehran, which denies that it is after the bomb, believes the scientists were killed by Israeli agents, an assertion that Israel has not acknowledged but never fully disputed. This very interesting read showed up on The New York Times website on Sunday...and is another offering from Donald Sinclair. The link is here.  Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact: Ambrose Evans-PritchardBrent crude jumped to $115 a barrel last week. Petrol costs in Germany and across much of Europe are now at record levels in local currencies. Diesel is above the political pain threshold of $4 a gallon in the US, hence reports circulating last week that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves. Barclays Capital expects a "monster" effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight. Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. "It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand," said its oil guru David Greely. This is a remarkable state of affairs given the world economy is close to a double-dip slump right now, the latest relapse in our contained global depression. Yes, dear reader, it most certainly is. As I [and others] have been saying for many years now, we are on the downhill slope of Hubbard's Peak. Peak oil appeared to occur in 2005...and global output has been flat at best ever since. This must read story from The Telegraph on late Sunday afternoon was sent to us by Roy Stephens...and the link is here.  Merkel and Hollande sidestep Greece's plea for breathing spaceAngela Merkel and Francois Hollande pledged to keep Greece in the eurozone, but offered Greece no immediate relief from its current regime of painful austerity measures. Following talks with the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, on Saturday, Mr Hollande said that "Greece is in the eurozone and Greece must stay in the eurozone". But, he cautioned: "It still has to demonstrate the credibility of its programme and the willingness of its leaders to go the whole way, while doing it in a way that is bearable for the population." "Once these commitments, which are not only financial but about structural reforms that the Greeks want, have been ratified by parliament and confirmed, Europe must do its part," the French president added. This story showed up on The Telegraph's website early on Saturday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for bringing it to our attention. The link is Alasdair Macleod: The purpose of market intervention Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod explains today why big business loves government intervention in the economy: It's a source of subsidy and price fixing and thus is anti-market and anti-consumer. This story was posted over at the goldmoney.com Internet site yesterday...and I plucked it from a GATA release. The link is here. |
| Peter Brimelow: Is gold heading to $4,500? Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT  Gold makes its move. The bugs are rampant. The yellow metal made life very difficult for commentators trying to keep a regular schedule on Wednesday. MarketWatch's Claudia Assis could hardly have hit the 'send' button on her story headed "Gold ends lower as other metals gain," which dealt with the close of floor trading -- the December gold contract was down $2.40 -- when the Fed minutes set the market roaring. By the stock market close, gold had risen over $17 to stand 1% above Tuesday's stock market closing level and at the highest since early May. |
| Indian gold buying picks up as festival season kicks off Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT  The lure of the yellow metal seems to be back and gold prices have been growing from strength to strength. On Monday morning, India's benchmark October gold contract extended gains to hit a high of $558.70 (Rs 31,077) per 10 grams, following a rally in the world markets and a weak rupee. On Friday, the yellow metal hit another life-time high in Rupee terms of $564.35 per 10 gram. It seems, however, that high price levels have not really dampened retailers' seasonal buying mood in the run up to the festive season that kicks off this week in India. Bulk purchases for marriages continue, with most retailers stocking up and individuals buying smaller items of gold jewellery. |
| Republicans tease with gold standard, but idea seen full of bugs Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT  This Reuters story showed up on their website on Sunday. They finally got around to mentioning GATA in this article but, as Chris Powell put it in the GATA release on Sunday..."it was just to help disparage the Republican tease about gold." That's probably the truth. Anyway, if you're interested, the story is linked here. |
| Gold Set for Best Year Since 2010 as Stimulus Bets Increase Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:33 AM PDT  Gold is poised to climb the most in two years as prospects for additional economic stimulus by governments from the U.S. to China stoke demand for the precious metal as a bet against inflation, a survey showed. Bullion for immediate delivery may reach $1,800 an ounce by the year-end, extending gains this year to 15 percent, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey of 15 traders and analysts at a conference in Hyderabad in South India on Aug. 25. That would be the most since a 30 percent surge in 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. |
| 3 Singapore Stocks With Semi-Annual Dividends And No Tax Withholding For A Dividend Growth Portfolio Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:21 AM PDT By Investing internationally is one of the best ways to diversify a dividend growth portfolio. In addition to the benefits of diversifying one's assets into currencies other than the U.S. dollar as a hedge against high inflation and high debt in the U.S. economy, some of the most respected and profitable multinational companies in the world are based outside of the U.S. However, dividend growth investors face two common problems when looking for suitable international stocks: 1) Many foreign governments withhold taxes on dividends paid to foreign investors, which often cannot be recovered if the U.S. investor is holding the stock in a tax-deferred account like an IRA. For example, France withholds 30% and Switzerland withholds a whopping 35%! 2) Many foreign companies pay irregular dividends at long intervals. It is not uncommon for foreign companies to only pay annual or semi-annual dividends and for the dividends to fluctuate up and Complete Story » |
| Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:15 AM PDT By Tim Shaw: The last time we addressed a potential QE3 announcement was here on July 22nd. We provided returns on various asset classes and how they were performing year to date up to the last fed meeting and announcement. The whole point was to determine if there would be a QE3 announcement based on the year to date asset class returns of the following, SPY - S&P 500, $WTIC - oil, JJC - copper, JJG - soft commodities, and GLD - gold. As expected there was no QE3 announcement made, as returns have been strong. The Federal Reserve meets again on September 12-13 and will provide us with more QE3 information, if not earlier during the Jackson Hole meeting on August 31st. This article will not focus on whether or not the Fed will initiate a QE3 program ever, but rather if a program will be initiated at the September meeting or Complete Story » |
| Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc., Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. - M&A Call Posted: 28 Aug 2012 02:10 AM PDT Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. (DTG) August 27, 2012 9:00 am ET Executives Leslie Hunziker - Staff Vice President of Investor Relations Mark P. Frissora - Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, Member of Executive Committee, Chairman of Hertz Corp and Chief Executive Officer of Hertz Corp Scott L. Thompson - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Elyse Douglas - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Analysts Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division Yejay Ying - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Michael Millman - Millman Research Associates Richard M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division John M. Healy - Northcoast Research Fred T. Lowrance - Avondale Partners, LLC, Research Division Doug Carlson Presentation Operator Welcome to the Hertz Global Holdings and Dollar Thrifty's Joint Conference Call. The companies have asked me to remind you that certain statements made on Complete Story » |
| 'No QE' Bernanke Will Disappoint Markets Friday Posted: 28 Aug 2012 01:30 AM PDT By Further stimulus from the Fed is highly unlikely in the next few months. So "risk on" markets should be disappointed on August 31 when Ben Bernanke makes his speech in Jackson Hole. The stock market (SPY), (IVV) and gold (GLD) will likely decline. The dollar and bond prices could get a boost. There are three reasons the Fed will not act. First of all, "Operation Twist" is still going on. Furthermore, the monetary and inflation conditions that have prompted quantitative easing in the past do not currently exist. Finally, more easing at this point has a bigger downside risk for the future than the potential near-term benefit can justify. Operation Twist, where the Fed sells short-term Treasuries and buys longer-term Treasuries, has been extended through the end of 2012. So the Fed is still in an easing program. In Bernanke's August 22 letter answering Darrell Issa's question of whether additional Complete Story » |
| Top 5 Insider Buys Filed On August 27 Posted: 28 Aug 2012 01:01 AM PDT By Markus Aarnio: Insider buying is often a sign of potential positive developments within a company, particularly if the insiders who are buying have a good track record with respect to their own buying. This is, however, only a secondary indicator and should not be relied upon solely when making the decision on whether to purchase a security. Insider buying in and by itself will not make a stock move higher, but can provide a further clue if all the other pieces of the puzzle - e.g., earnings, sales, return on equity, profit margins, etc. - are in place. I screened for companies where at least one insider made a buy filed on August 27. I chose the top five companies with insider buying in dollar terms. Here are the five stocks: 1. Sonus Networks (SONS) helps the world's leading communications service providers and enterprises embrace the next generation of SIP-based solutions, including Complete Story » |
| Bullion is Just Getting Started Posted: 28 Aug 2012 01:00 AM PDT Recent price action suggests that hard times may be over for this hardest of all assets. Despite repeated attempts, the yellow metal has failed to break down below the $1,500 support level that I have been broadcasting as the line in the sand. |
| ETF Industry Growth Overtaking Stock Market? Posted: 28 Aug 2012 12:38 AM PDT By Invest With An Edge: by Patrick Watson The S&P 500 will soon be overtaken by its children, at least in terms of trading volume. Bloomberg News tells us this in the article entitled 'ETFs Poised To Exceed Trade in S&P 500 As Spiders Beat Apple'. Combined dollar volume in SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (IVV), and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) averaged $28 billion a day in the past year. This is only slightly less than trading in the index's constituent stocks. If current trends continue, S&P 500 ETFs will soon be more popular than S&P 500 stocks. And these are only three of the 20 ETFs included in the Large Cap Blend category of the ETF Field Guide. Add in the rest, and there's a good chance ETF trading already surpasses that of the underlying stocks. The motivation seems to be trading convenience. The indexed ETFs are the easiest Complete Story » |
| Posted: 28 Aug 2012 12:26 AM PDT We continue our search today for evidence that Australia's commodity boom is over. Of course we could be totally wrong. But that's the establishment position anyway. The establishment position is that Chinese economic growth will moderate and commodity prices will return to trend. But other than the natural maturation of Chinese growth, everything will be fine for the next thirty years. It would be nice if the above scenario was true. But kicking back your heels and accepting that position is remarkable lazy. On top of that, it shows a distinct lack of imagination and a deficit of curiosity. You won't get anywhere in life taking things at face value as you hoover down calories from processed foods. So let's push on. We'll begin with our moody companion Dr Copper again. But this time, we've put him in the same room with the Shanghai Composite for the last seven years to see how they've been getting along. Thick as thieves lately, you could say, although it hasn't always been that way.
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| Central Planning: The Failings of a Nazi Economy Posted: 28 Aug 2012 12:25 AM PDT In the mid-1930s...Germany faced a critical decision. More? Or less? Adam Tooze, a British historian, has written a marvelous book on the Nazi economy, The Wages of Destruction. He shows that, far from illustrating the success of intelligent central planning, the German economy of the Third Reich was a disaster. The National Socialists - or "Nazis" - had their plans for Germany. They were determined to put them into practice, regardless of what the Germans may have wanted for themselves. They fiddled with one sector after another. When one fix failed to produce the desired results, actually bringing unintended and undesired consequences, they tried to fix the fix with a new fix. Most of these fixes involved spending money - if not on actual output, then on bureaucracies that regulated output. And most of them were directed towards a goal that only a demagogue politician or a lame economist would find attractive - making Germany self-sufficient. Imports cost money, they reasoned. Besides, trade forced a nation to behave. Neither was attractive to the Nazis. Like America in the 2000s, by the mid-1930s Germany had already spent too much money - with the military as its biggest single expense. It faced enemies much more real and dangerous than America's 'terrorist' adversaries. And under Adolph Hitler's leadership it had decided to invest heavily in armaments. This created a sense of purpose for many people and a source of 'demand' that got people working again. Germany was still a relatively poor country, with a standard of living only about half the US equivalent. An autoworker in Munich, for example, could not expect anywhere near the same lifestyle as one in Detroit. Henry Ford paid his workers so well they were able to afford large houses with hot and cold running water and electricity. They could buy automobiles too...which gave a huge boost to America's heavy industry. When war began, the US could fairly quickly convert its auto factories to production of jeeps, tanks and trucks. Germany could not. In Germany, automobiles were still a luxury item. Few people owned them; certainly not the people who made them. Military orders made up for the lack of demand from the civilian population. In this regard, many economists looked at Germany and labeled the rearmament program - from an economic standpoint - as a central planning success story. It 'put people back to work.' It 'got the economy moving again.' More stuff was being produced. 'More' worked! From all over Europe, people came to admire the revival in Germany. American Congressmen praised Hitler. So did many magazine editors and other leaders in France and Britain too. Besides, compared to what was going on in Russia, Japan and Italy... Germany looked positively benign, if not a perfect role model. Stalin was purging or starving his enemies - millions of them. Benito Mussolini had invaded Abyssinia and was busily massacring the locals. The Japanese were beginning their bloody war against the Chinese. Hitler may have sounded mad from time to time, and he may have murdered many of his rivals on the 'night of the long knives,' but now - by 1935 - he was beginning to sound reasonable, at least in comparison. But vast spending on the military brought problems for the Nazi leadership. The German economy was still recovering from the destruction of WWI, the loss of the Ruhr heavy industrial area, the Great Depression and the reparations payments. While other economies had been forced off the gold standard, Germany held to its strong mark policies. It lacked the raw materials needed to build heavy military equipment and the fuel needed to power a modern economy and modern war machine. Those could only be bought with foreign currencies, which it could earn by trade, or by drawing down its own hard currency reserves of gold. By 1936, it was clear that the government would run out of money in just a few months. The Nazi leadership had already 'fixed' the farm sector - with various jury rigs and many unintended consequences. The market system had largely been replaced by a system of bureaucratic meddles and price controls which, naturally and predictably, led to shortages that had to be reconciled by rationing. Now, this same sort of meddling was causing shortages in the manufacturing sector too. If something were not done, the whole rearmament effort could come to a halt. Germany was not rich enough to be able to afford guns and butter - at least not on the scale promised by the Nazi Party. And with their spreading system of bureaucratic management, neither the guns nor butter were likely to last long. At the time, Mr. Hitler was lucky to have at least one economist with a clearer head than most of his other advisors and henchmen. Carl Friedrich Goerdeler came from a tough, conservative Prussian family. He was smart. He was a good organizer. He was persuasive. Goerdeler seemed like a decent sort, too. After all, in 1933, as mayor of Leipzig, he refused to enforce the national boycott against Jewish businesses and ordered the police to release several Jews who had been taken hostage by the S.A. Goerdeler may not have been impressed with Adolf Hitler in every respect. Still, as late as 1936 he believed the Fuhrer was an "enlightened dictator" and that if he could only explain to him what was going on, he might be led to make the right choice. He saw readily that you can't continue to spend more than you earn; Germany would have to adjust its priorities. 'More' would no longer work. While he knew Hitler was dead-set on military expansion, Goerdeler urged the Fuhrer to forget the whole thing. Germany could not afford both guns and butter, he argued, and the German people would be better off with butter. Devalue the mark, he urged. Abandon the program of breakneck re-militarization. Come to terms with England, France and America. Drop the hard-line anti-Jewish claptrap. In short, become a civilized nation with a market economy, rather than a centrally-planned war economy. He wanted to take this message to Hitler personally, to talk to him, to try to persuade him. But his friends talked him out of it. Hitler had put Hermann Goring into a position as his chief economic advisor. But Goring was very unlike Helmut Schacht at the central bank, who was also calling for a more 'normal' free market economy. Goring was a central planner...and a Nazi...through and through. So, Goerdeler prepared a memo for Hitler and passed it to Goring. The latter annotated it before passing it to the Fuhrer, marking critical passages "nonsense!" Instead of embracing Goerdeler's plan, Hitler came up with his own 4-Year Plan, released in 1936. It rejected a free-market economy altogether. Instead, Germany would have a war economy, in which all economic and financial decisions were subordinate to the interests of the military. Like today's neo-cons, Hitler told his followers that Germany was in a fight for its very survival. Therefore, the laws that applied to normal societies - including the laws of economics - no longer applied to Germany:
In the age-old battle between force and persuasion...civilization and barbarianism...the market and politics...central planning and individual planning...the winner was clear. Germany had gone over to the dark side. Hitler had chosen more military spending...more central planning...and more war. Politics was triumphant. War was inevitable. And Carl Goedeler was soon history. He began to conspire against Adolph Hitler...including the attempt to kill him in 1944. For his trouble, Goedeler was hung in 1945. Regards, Bill Bonner From the Archives... The Gold Sub-Standard and the Inflation Cake BHP and Rio: Just Following the Followers How Media Regulation is Just a Clamp Down on Freedom of Speech Monarchs, the Masses and Democratic Mayhem Why China's Crack-Economy Needs a New Fix
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Tues Aug 28th – We've been beating the short AUDUSD drum for a while now, but big macro themes can take a while to play out. We have been short the Aussie on and off a few different times over the past six months to a year, booking modest profits on some occasions and taking scratches on others. But at some point this trade will be huge… at moment we are short from 1.05ish average price (AUDUSD) with one pyramid already.
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