saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- These 3 Trends Lead To Economic Disaster
- New Cyclical Bull Underway in Bullion Stocks
- First Majestic Announces Appointment of VP of Exploration
- “It” Is Still Happening
- Medtronic: Revised $45 Price Estimate Following Earnings
- Gold Mining Stocks Get Healthy
- Debt and Its Discontents: The Depressing World of Collections, Part One
- Propaganda, Politics, and the Gold Standard
- Rick Rule – Artificial Liquidity Propping up Markets
- Steady Goes The Big Ship - An Update On The Progress Of Transforming BP
- Sell The Euro On Spikes
- Gold and silver off to the races?
- Booth - WEEKLY GOLD REPORT
- ECB: gold and gold receivables remain unchanged
- Gold Standard Fare for Precious Metals Markets
- The Collapse & the Ultimate Quadruple Top Breakout for Silver
- History May View ECB’s Draghi As "Currency Forger of Europe"
- Dancing on the Grave of the Keynesian System
- New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks
- Fed & The ECB Are Involved In A Dangerous Game Of Poker
- Internal Discord Leaves ECB’s Threats Toothless
- History May View ECB’s Draghi As “Currency Forger of Europe”
- Jeff Nichols: ‘No Gold Bug – Just Super Bullish’
- Keeping It Light
- The Precious Metals MAJOR Breakout Part II
- Is ECB’s Draghi 'Currency Forger of Europe?'
| These 3 Trends Lead To Economic Disaster Posted: 27 Aug 2012 12:43 PM PDT By Shaun Connell: I love gold. I buy more every month and have since I started investing. Same with silver. I have no intentions on ever stopping until retirement. Of course, some people think this must mean I'm a "gold bug." Gold is an alternative currency that sometimes trades like a typical commodity. It suffers from slight identity crises because the governments of the world have waged war on it as a type of money. They've passed legal tender laws, tax it like a collectible and not capital gains and other attacks. But unfortunately for the leaders of the world economic system, they can't tell the principles of economics to scram, so gold keeps marching on. Right now, there are three economic trends that show how insane the world economic system is, and give us signs of incredible trouble ahead. It's not just possible -- it's inevitable. 1. Debt Complete Story » |
| New Cyclical Bull Underway in Bullion Stocks Posted: 27 Aug 2012 11:29 AM PDT The confirmation of the bottom is obvious. Now what? Well, the question is if the sector will continue to zoom higher similar to 2005 and 2009 or if it will consolidate for months before making a parabolic advance in less than two years. |
| First Majestic Announces Appointment of VP of Exploration Posted: 27 Aug 2012 10:54 AM PDT FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (AG: NYSE; FR: TSX) is pleased to announce the appointment of Guillermo Lozano as Vice President of Exploration who will head all exploration activities at the Company's growing portfolio of projects in Mexico. First Majestic is pleased to create this new role of VP of Exploration for Mr. Lozano. He will lead a team consisting of the Regional Exploration Manager, the Operations Exploration Manager, the NI 43-101 Control Manager, the Mining Claims Manager and the Technical Services team, in addition to a staff consisting of over 50 geologists and over 100 support staff. Mr. Lozano has over 30 years of experience in the mineral resource industry in Mexico with extensive experience in exploration, development and production including open pit and underground operations. Prior to joining First Majestic, Mr. Lozano was with Silver Standard Resources, Inc. for a period of 10 years holding the position of Country Manager for Mexico and later promoted to the senior management team as Exploration Director. Mr. Lozano has also worked as Country Manager for Canplats Resources Inc. and was part of the team who discovered the Camino Rojo deposit which was later sold to Goldcorp. Additionally, Mr. Lozano worked for Kennecott Corp. and the Peñoles group. He holds a B.Sc. degree in Geology from the National Polytechnic Institute in Mexico City, a Degree in M.Sc. Degree in Geology at the Missouri University at Columbia, and a MBA in Finance at the University of Texas at El Paso, in addition to a partial Ph.D. in Geology also at the University of Texas. The Company's 2012 exploration program, which Mr. Lozano is taking over, is budgeted for 133,758 metres of diamond drilling plus 10,000 line kms of Geophysics. First Majestic controls over 170,000 hectares of mineral rights in Mexico and currently has 21 active drill rigs across eleven silver projects. Mr. Keith Neumeyer, President and CEO of First Majestic stated; "Mr. Lozano is a very well-known and respected Mexican geologist who we're very pleased to appoint as VP of Exploration. His years of experience in both underground and open pit mining projects from green fields' exploration to production will be a significant benefit in advancing and growing all of the First Majestic's projects." The Company's exploration activities for the past eight years have been led by Mr. Florentino Muñoz who has decided to retire for personal family reasons. His duties as Director of Exploration are becoming a part of a newly restructured geological department which is being designed to effectively manage a growing portfolio and the technological systems that are currently being implemented as part of First Majestic's hiring of a Chief Information Officer in January. Mr. Muñoz will continue acting on an as needed basis as an exclusive consultant to the Company. Mr. Keith Neumeyer, President and CEO of First Majestic; "wishes to take this opportunity on behalf of our shareholders and employees to express our appreciation and gratitude for the work performed by Florentino over the several years he worked with the Company. Mr. Muñoz managed one of the most aggressive and successful exploration programs in Mexico which resulted in one of the largest silver resources holders in the industry. We all thank Florentino for his hard work and dedication and our best wishes go out to him in his retirement." First Majestic is a producing silver company focused on silver production in México and is aggressively pursuing its business plan of becoming a senior silver producer through the development of its existing mineral property assets and the pursuit through acquisition of additional mineral assets which contribute to the Company achieving its aggressive corporate growth objectives. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION contact info@firstmajestic.com, visit our website at www.firstmajestic.com or call our toll free number FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP.
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| Posted: 27 Aug 2012 10:13 AM PDT The gold Bull Run of 11 years ("IT") is still happening; make no mistake about that. The fact that the USD gold price has held above the $1525 level is a strong indicator. Seasonal factors and other strong indicators tell me this long gold price consolidation period is nearing its conclusion at last. Gold has formed a new higher base from which it can launch higher. Conditions for gold remain positive because the sovereign debt crisis is still in full swing. The global de-leveraging is still in progress, its capital destruction still offsetting fresh monetary inflation. This deflationary offset is only encouraging governments to continue with their Keynesian printing press 'solution' and thus maintaining a steady long lived incubation period for the eventual parabolic rise in gold. That will be the third phase for gold when the public wakes up and it may happen for longer than most investors imagine. The encouragement of printing press excess I speak of is the current lack of inflation in the face of all that printing. The USD has been gradually losing a once bullet proof status as worlds reserve currency. This is a major event for the world financial system and international trade. Once the transition away from the USD for trade is complete the living standards for my US friends will surely be lower. The value of gold in USD's will be much higher. Gold will go up in all currencies. US citizens need to look at gold and need to look at international gold stock investment to diversify and protect their global purchasing power. It will be highly beneficial for US investors to repatriate cash back home after the USD falls so selling offshore gold stocks will provide a double whammy. Forex flows will be volatile so nimble investors will maximize their profits over the course of the gold stock mania. We are not there yet however we are at a very important point in history for gold so it is certainly time for all investors to be looking at this opportunity no matter where they live. Confusion and indecision still control the broader stock market sentiment and who can blame investors. The 'risk off' safety trade has dominated markets this year to date pushing money into US bonds and to a lesser extent some other markets. Money has flowed into AAA Aussie bonds keeping the Aussie dollar (AUD) higher, even though commodities have clearly come off the boil. The US trade is easy to justify, despite the problems the US faces, the US markets are highly liquid. I would also back the USA any time to eventually get through the major issues because Americans have the proven ability to overcome difficulties. The 'risk off' capital flows I refer to above however are short term and the US faces very serious problems even if we have seen some improvement. What I really like is the Americans never say die attitude and their strategic move towards internal supply of cheaper energy over coming years. What really bothers me are the other headwinds blowing in from Europe (banking and sovereign crisis), Japan (trade, debt levels, demographic issues) and for other reasons the Middle East. Systemic risk is extreme; so much so I actually expect major events to unfold that will change the world as we know it. The abyss does have a bottom, even though we are in a massive cycle transition this is not the end of the world as some would have you believe. Bubbles come and go; at the moment bonds are very expensive compared to shares. Discovering where the capital flows will head next is the basis for sound investing. Markets now rally on some improvement of numbers out of the USA. They rally on added stimulus within China, hope of QE in the USA and that the Euro Zone can somehow solve the structural problems they face despite seemingly impossible odds. Europe has suffered massive outflows of capital. Market conditions there are still excellent for gold, the fundamental picture has strengthened. Interest rates are still tracking well below inflation; this is referred to as negative interest rates. I also argue this is a form of QE. The chase for alpha (yield) is on; this sets up an interesting scenario for gold stocks. As gold rises faster than costs now they will increase dividends and attract more and more attention. Capital growth will be the other driver of upside for gold stocks as gold finally resumes its upward momentum. Funds are chasing a return over the coming months and the beaten down gold sector seems ripe for a good hard rally to provide them with a nice Christmas bonus. The gold bull has paused over recent months and so there has been much debate about this subject. The sovereign debt crisis and the global de-leveraging process rage on and on. Smoke and mirrors are still being deployed to promote hope in the mistaken belief that consumers might return to strengthen growth if their sentiment improves enough. This is an important point as it is at the heart of why gold will continue to rally. Keynesian Failure: gold is not finished Here is an old quote; I have regurgitated it again as it seems very important right now. "The Queen of England famously asked her economic advisors why none of them had seen "it" (GFC) coming." Understanding and adjusting for the evolving market dynamics is apparently beyond Keynesian economics. Otherwise the Queens economists would certainly have seen "it" coming. The methodology is flawed and thus you get false signals for Central Bank and government intervention. Keynes never stated that continual deficits were acceptable, his theory has been misused and he has also been misquoted on gold. The problem is that his radical idea that governments should spend money they don't have passed its use by date long ago. He came along in the 1930's at the beginning of the long wave debt cycle and spearheaded the idea of stimulus and government intervention in the business cycle. His thinking has permeated modern economics and herein lays the problem. This problem now belongs to all of us however it is great for gold. The theory worked in the world of the 1930's at the beginning of the debt cycle. However now we are at the end of the debt cycle, in a debt bubble. Governments became addicted to 'big' government and spending. Keynes did not anticipate that governments would succumb to the intoxicating urge to seek re-election by cherry picking his theory and would be constantly stimulating via deficits for popular effect. The Queens economists were trained in a theory that worked on, or was derived from an old model. Hyman Minsky tried to tell the other economists about the error of their ways. From Wikipedia: "Minsky proposed theories linking financial market fragility, in the normal life cycle of an economy, with speculative investment bubbles endogenous (editor: originating from within) to financial markets." In other words he took greater notice of the business cycle, investor sentiment and crisis. This is more akin to market trader's tools. He later argued against excessive debt accumulation and deregulation – if only he had been more closely followed, yet the main stream Keynesian teaching still persists. Conventional macroeconomics still insists on being 'right' without understanding the model is broken and without incorporating the flaws of politicians and political agendas. They will soon push this debt bubble to an explosion or collapse the way they are going. Gold has to benefit and this is the big "why" it has further to run. Investors that saw this crisis coming over recent years increasingly turned to gold. We all saw it coming however the trick was to get in early and articulate the reasons for your position. Without certainty you can get shaken from a correct position. Every aspect of my analysis highlights that "it" is still happening. From the epicentre currently in Europe to capital flows and government rhetoric / policy "the song remains the same". I cover the debt crisis as the core of my top down analysis and have recently tried to discover how economists could be so wrong. The proof they are hopelessly lost is on the score card in case you have not been watching and analysing this aspect of the world we live in. The Australian RBA was still pushing up rates to manage inflation and the Australian economy in February and March 2008. They did not lower rates at all until September 2008 (25bps) and then October when they started to panic after the event. Since the GFC "ended" (I still have seen no proof of this "end") the Australian government stimulated with massive successive deficits which added drastically to GDP here and yet the RBA had to 'cool' the economy here by putting up rates. This is akin to driving with one foot on the brakes and one on the accelerator. This is just further proof that the current management of economies is flawed and therefore no solution will come until these flaws are addressed. I wonder how long the AAA rating on the UK and Australia can last. Here in Australia we face a housing bubble, constrained bank lending, an unfolding sub-prime crisis and slowing commodity prices. The wider problem is the banking crisis worldwide; banks are going home they are not rolling over syndicated loans or providing the same level of wholesale funding offshore and this has obvious implications. This crisis is still unfolding and this is why gold has a long way to run. The debt bubble has not been resolved. The structural deficiencies in the Euro Zone have not been solved. The sovereign debt crisis is alive and kicking. The mis-valuation of the gold stocks at this time has also been quantified in my work – you can Google "How undervalued Part 1 or Part 2 if you want access to this research. I will also confidently add that this is a major distortion which must resolve in due course. Gold is still very cheap at under two times the peak achieved 32 years ago in 1980. Back to the gold stocks the picture is quite fantastic. During May, on the fall I highlighted for Members that a further fall was coming which I was able to provide a blow by blow prediction and account as it unfolded. This has enabled us to layer in some fantastic trades right on the money over recent weeks and this now continues. Despite beginning our Funds during the most recent highs on the chart below, we are currently up over 10% during this period. The opportunity is stupendous as the following chart indicates. I draw your attention to the RSI indicator in the box below the index. Note the red infill during 2008 preceded the last of the fall which was followed by massive profit gains. We have now completed a very similar pattern and believe the probability now favours that we are at the take-off area once again after an oversold low. The junior index shows a similar picture and the producers look set to rise. We believe we have enough signals and analysis to support our view to go public now; that this index is either just past it's low or has extremely limited down side risk. As you see above we are oversold. You make money investing by buying cheap and being patient. It is a case of trusting your analysis and waiting for over valuation where you then need to sell. Clearly this is an attractive entry point. We have followed the weighted XGD here and the picture is also clear. Our educational portfolio has shown Members how important weightings and stock selection are. We run two Funds; one conservative and the other aggressive. As you would expect the aggressive Fund has done worse during the long downward spiral since they both began in February 2011. Capital preservation techniques have enabled us to stay invested right through the fall registering a profit to this date on both Funds. They started at slightly different dates yet FundA "Aggressive" is up 7% (XGD down 23.2% during same period) while FundB "Conservative" is already up 10.67% (XGD down 25.7% during same period). These returns have been achieved to the bottom of this long bear market; imagine what they will look like at the next top. We believe the global set up for gold stocks is exciting right now and the same goes for gold. Our Memberships are on special for the first time in a long time to celebrate this opportunity, until the end of September. Details are on the front page of our site if you have interest. We see some extra special set ups for major capital appreciation in the coming months and years in some cases. Good trading / investing. GoldOz has now introduced a major point of difference to many services. We offer a Newsletter, data base and gold stock comparison tools plus special interest files on gold companies and investment topics. We have expertise in debt markets and gold equities which gives us a strong edge as independent analysts and market commentators. GoldOz also has free access area on the history of gold, links to Australian gold stocks and miners plus many other resources. Neil Charnock is not a registered investment advisor. He is an experienced private investor who, in addition to his essay publication offerings, has now assembled a highly experienced panel to assist in the presentation of various research information services. The opinions and statements made in the above publication are the result of extensive research and are believed to be accurate and from reliable sources. The contents are his current opinion only, further more conditions may cause these opinions to change without notice. The insights herein published are made solely for international and educational purposes. The contents in this publication are not to be construed as solicitation or recommendation to be used for formulation of investment decisions in any type of market whatsoever. WARNING share market investment or speculation is a high risk activity. Investors enter such activity at their own risk and must conduct their own due diligence to research and verify all aspects of any investment decision, if necessary seeking competent professional assistance.
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| Medtronic: Revised $45 Price Estimate Following Earnings Posted: 27 Aug 2012 09:56 AM PDT By Trefis: Medtronic (MDT) announced its quarterly earnings for Q1 2013 on Aug. 21, registering a decline in its key Pacemakers and Defibrillators and Spinal divisions, in line with our expectations. However, growth in Cardiovascular, Diabetes and Surgical Technologies businesses more than offset the decline as overall revenue grew by 5% to $4.14 billion. Gross margins declined slightly mainly due to foreign exchange fluctuations. The company maintained its 2012 earnings outlook. In the wake of its earnings announcement, we have increased our price estimate for the company from $41 to $45, which is about 15% ahead of the market price. On a quarterly basis, the company recorded a 5% (2% excluding currency effect) decline in revenue from Pacemakers and Defibrillators due to a decline in overall demand for implantable defibrillators. The silver lining was that the company's defibrillator sales outperformed (excluding currency effect) the overall market. The business is stabilizing after being Complete Story » |
| Gold Mining Stocks Get Healthy Posted: 27 Aug 2012 09:39 AM PDT Things are finally looking up for gold stocks. In fact it's likely a new major rally has begun. The reason is that major corrections in secular bull markets produce the best buying opportunities. They are the biggest dips for those looking to "buy the dip". |
| Debt and Its Discontents: The Depressing World of Collections, Part One Posted: 27 Aug 2012 09:00 AM PDT This series is by Patrick Sahr, a Naked Capitalism reader and a former debt collector. Sahr is a graduate of Buffalo State College's Print Journalism Program. This series is running because it's important to understand the culture of debt collectors, who are increasingly a form of policing in our society. One in seven Americans is currently being pursued by a debt collector. Admittedly, my perspective on the Great Recession is especially negative. My excuse is that I'm from Buffalo, the nation's third poorest city, where I've set fire to my career in the miserable business of debt collections. I have no future business plan in place other than avoiding the grim, dull and brutal world of third party debt collection. The whole experience has given me a seemingly incurable case of existential paralysis, where the future appears bleaker than the past and the past was pretty bleak. From this vantage point, while shopping for careers, it appears the entire economy has adopted the characteristics of the collection agency: rude, short-sighted, greedy, corrupt and pathetic. The clipped nature of customer relations, the constricting focus on short-term profits and the sarcastic vulturing of remaining wealth have long been features of the collections industry in good times and bad. Now we see these features in the "race to the bottom" with cost-cutting regional airlines and in the arbitrary fees assigned to our cable and electric bills. Is it only in a recession where these features of corporate behavior divine themselves in other industries? The General Function of the Collection Agency and Individual Commission Structure A little about collections for the unfamiliar. The collection agency purchases or leases debt from banks, credit card companies, virtually any company that issues financing as well as debt purchasers, companies that act as debt wholesalers to collection agencies. The agencies then load the individual account information into a software program linked to an automated dialer. An army of phone drones in comfy cubicles then extract money from these delinquent accounts. This is labor intensive as you only make contact with maybe fifteen targets out of 200 calls or more. Of those fifteen only three will agree to pay. Of those three, one will bounce a check and avoid future calls. The business model is pretty simple. The accounts are purchased for pennies on the dollar and you turn a profit once you've collected more than you paid for the portfolio of debt. Your overhead is mostly the army of collectors, whose starting base pay is low and bonus is generally 2 percent of the overall collected at larger agencies. The agency usually pays 5 to 20 percent of "fee" to the collector, which is usually 20 to 40 percent of the overall amount collected. So if the collector collects $35,000 in one month, generating (at 35%) $12,250 fee for the agency, the final payoff is anywhere from $800 to $1350 for the collector depending on the agency. Not bad. That's why people in Buffalo do it. In addition to the hourly wage, they pay a bonus that you're not going to earn as a security guard or a bus driver no matter how much overtime you put in. Buffalo: Former Manufacturing Mecca Turned Collections Capital of the World The debt collection industry is huge in Buffalo and has been for almost twenty years. There are approximately 5,000 bill collectors and over 100 agencies in Buffalo. Buffalo, a working-class legacy city with a population of 260,000 and falling, is not the manufacturing mecca it was in the 1940s. Manufacturing has slowly disappeared over the last thirty-five years and the city has struggled to find a new identity and defined purpose. Buffalo is a remarkable place with many and varied cultural attractions, distinct architecture and great restaurants, but the high cost of doing business along with high taxes, corrupt poltics and inhospitable winters outweigh the less obvious virtues and discourage industries from situating here. At its peak, Bethlehem steel employed almost 20,000 people in a massive facility not far from the shores of Lake Erie. That facility is a brownfield now and Buffalo's economy is scattered and unmoored, corralling a large working-class with dim prospects, low income and less resources to fund the aging and oversized infrastructure in the absence of large-scale manufacturing. The call center economy proliferated in Buffalo largely because of cheap and available workers and office space, the sorts of incentives that don't entice reputable, growing industries to the area. Collection agencies and call centers have replaced some of the jobs vacated by manufacturers, but the compensation is far less and the jobs themselves are unstable.
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| Propaganda, Politics, and the Gold Standard Posted: 27 Aug 2012 08:40 AM PDT |
| Rick Rule – Artificial Liquidity Propping up Markets Posted: 27 Aug 2012 08:35 AM PDT Our friend Rick Rule had some face time on CNBC this morning. Unfortunately CNBC's Joe Kernen was a bit too glib to get the most out of the interview, but Rule's comments about artificial liquidity propping up equity markets make the interview worthwhile. The segment is below. The topic was on energy. Among the highlights, Mr. Rule said: "… the national oil companies have been diverting a lot of their free cash flow away from sustaining capital investments to politically expedient domestic spending problems so countries like Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, have been diverting more and more sustaining capital from production to domestic spending programs, and we've had a bit of a supply constraint. … I think the level of production - the production declines that you're seeing in countries that have national oil companies like Mexico, Venezuela are dangerous. The point is you can't turn around and begin to spend next year, when you have underinvested for ten years in the industry. It takes a long time to turn around those production declines so I think there will be a problem three or four or five years out, a real supply problem - on a global basis." More at the link below and in the video.
Source: CNBC
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| Steady Goes The Big Ship - An Update On The Progress Of Transforming BP Posted: 27 Aug 2012 08:26 AM PDT By Yale Bock: A company with close to $400 billion of annual revenue is massive, which international oil company British Petroleum (BP) most certainly qualifies as. Yet, the stock of BP remains stuck at the 40-42 dollar price per share. The current quote is nearly 30% below the $59.88 point when the Macondo oil spill occurred on April 20, 2010. Let's take a look at recent developments at the British oil giant in its effort to recover from the Gulf of Mexico disaster. 2nd Quarter 2012 Results It may be hard to believe, but BP's management is trying to 'transform' it's huge operations to become more efficient. As it relates to that effort, BP's second quarter 2012 results were, in it's own words, "weak." Replacement cost profit was $3.7 billion, down 35% from the same period in 2012 and 23% from the first quarter of 2012. The quarter includes Complete Story » |
| Posted: 27 Aug 2012 08:19 AM PDT By Joe Gelet: Based on an overwhelming bearish negative bias on the euro (FXE) from multiple sources (individuals, banks, analysts, and fund managers) we believe selling the euro on any run-up is a viable strategy. This last move to a near 1.26 provides a good example. Fundamentally, nothing changed with euro last week. But a combination of central banker news, both from the Fed and the ECB, contributed to the euro rise from 1.23 to nearly 1.60. Much of this news, such as the Spain bailout news, was all talk and no action. In the case of the Spain news, the report from CNBC said:
The keyword here is negotiating -- and Complete Story » |
| Gold and silver off to the races? Posted: 27 Aug 2012 08:10 AM PDT Goldmoney |
| Posted: 27 Aug 2012 07:54 AM PDT Brian Booth of Long Leaf Trading writes: "After three months of a painfully rangy trade, Gold Bugs were finally rewarded for their patience. Last week, after December Futures traded above $1630, the technical buy was on. Not only did the futures price test the 200 day moving average (what I suspected would be the short term target), it traded straight through before finally topping out over twenty dollars an ounce higher! Furthermore, we begin this week with Gold printing another new high overnight. It seemed last week that Gold prices were once again trading the fundamentals that once dictated direction. Here are a few factors that were baked into last week's rally:
This week is fairly light on economic news that would produce anything close to Ben Bernanke's speech from Jackson Hole on Friday. From this same event in 2010, QE2 was announced and in 2011, Operation Twist was laid out. There is speculation that the FOMC's "supportive stance" last week proves that the US will again announce a large scale idea after concluding. All eyes will be on this announcement and traders will stand ready to act. If the meeting provides nothing new to the market, one would expect most of the anticipatory buying to turn into heavy liquidation until Europe finishes their meetings the following week. I expect this week to stay light in volume with a choppy trade until we have a final decision from Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the week. Once a decision is final, the directional trade should be back in play. Good luck this week and as always, feel free to contact my office directly if you have any comments or questions regarding the material provided. Additionally, if you are interested in trading Gold futures or options, I would be happy to provide a detailed list of all of the trading tools available at Long Leaf Trading Group. My direct line is (888) 272-6926 and email is bbooth@longleaftrading.com " Brian Booth Senior Market Strategist P: (888) 272-6926 L: (312) 274-1470 F: (773) 751-2103
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| ECB: gold and gold receivables remain unchanged Posted: 27 Aug 2012 07:44 AM PDT |
| Gold Standard Fare for Precious Metals Markets Posted: 27 Aug 2012 07:39 AM PDT The new trading week started with small losses in the precious metals complex despite a 0.14% drop in the US dollar and a near-$1 advance in crude oil. Small-scale profit-taking was cited after gold market players attempted a test at the $1,680 resistance area. |
| The Collapse & the Ultimate Quadruple Top Breakout for Silver Posted: 27 Aug 2012 07:36 AM PDT Andy Hoffman |
| History May View ECB’s Draghi As "Currency Forger of Europe" Posted: 27 Aug 2012 07:29 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Dancing on the Grave of the Keynesian System Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:46 AM PDT
from lewrockwell.com: The collapse of the Soviet Union in December of 1991 was the best news of my lifetime. The monster died. It was not just that the USSR went down. The entire mythology of revolutionary violence as the method of social regeneration, promoted since the French Revolution, went down with it. As I wrote in my 1968 book, Marxism was a religion of revolution, and Marxism died institutionally in the last month of 1991. Yet we cannot show conclusively that "the West" defeated the Soviet Union. What defeated the Soviet Union was socialist economic planning. The Soviet Union was based on socialism, and socialist economic calculation is irrational. Ludwig von Mises in 1920 described why in his article, "Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth." He showed in theory exactly what is wrong with all socialist planning. He made it clear why socialism could never compete with the free market. It has no capital goods markets, and therefore economic planners cannot allocate capital according to capital's most important and most desired needs among by the public. Keep on reading @ lewrockwell.com |
| New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:41 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Three weeks ago we wrote that the short-term outlook in precious metals was bullish. Quoting our conclusion: "The bottom line is this sector is very close to a breakout which would likely confirm the May bottom. The price action has started to improve and the sector has not been deterred by the aforementioned bad news which, in normal conditions would have caused a selloff. In the meantime, the public has been bearish the entire year and the dumb money has started to exit the market. It is this combination of factors that lead us to a firm bullish posture over the rest of the summer." In terms of weekly closing prices, GDX and SIL closed last week at a four month high, while GDXJ closed last week at a three month high. Silver closed at a four month high while Gold closed at a five month high. From that it would seem that these markets are overbought. However, a quick study of the long-term charts, sentiment and valuations confirms that we are in an absolute sweet spot. Markets have bottomed, a new cyclical bull has begun and there is substantial room to move over the coming months and year. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Fed & The ECB Are Involved In A Dangerous Game Of Poker Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:40 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today Michael Pento writes exclusively for King World News to put readers ahead of the curve on what is happening with central planners. Pento noted the struggle in Europe, "… the EU 17's unemployment rate now stands at a Euro-era record of 11.2%." Pento also warned, "… gold and oil ETFs should provide the best protection if war breaks out in the Middle East or if central banks decide to launch another significant attack on fiat currencies." Here is Pento's piece: "The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have both telegraphed that another round of currency depreciation is in the offing. The ECB's Mario Draghi has pledged to do 'whatever it takes' to save the Euro currency, by setting specific targets for Italian and Spanish bond yields." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Internal Discord Leaves ECB’s Threats Toothless Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:36 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: LONDON (MarketWatch) — A central bank's ability to intimidate the financial markets through active, targeted intervention is directly proportional to its ability to deliver on promised action. Exactly as in the Cold War. Imagine if Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower or John F. Kennedy threatened the Soviet Union with nuclear retaliation in the event of intrusion on NATO territory. The next day, the president is called to order by his defense secretary who says deploying nuclear weapons is illegal. The deterrent would lose all credibility. Very likely, West Germany would have been overrun in the 1950s or 1960s by the Red Army. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| History May View ECB’s Draghi As “Currency Forger of Europe” Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:32 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Today the London Bullion Market is closed for a national holiday. Friday's AM fix was USD 1,666.50, EUR 1,329.16 and GBP 1,051.88 per ounce. Silver is trading at $30.91/oz, €24.77/oz and £19.62/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,550.00/oz, palladium at $647.90/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz. Gold climbed $0.80 or 0.05% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,669.80. Silver surged to as high of $30.71 and finished with a gain of 0.52%. On the week gold climbed 3.3% and silver gained a whopping 9.3%. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com |
| Jeff Nichols: ‘No Gold Bug – Just Super Bullish’ Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:29 AM PDT
from mineweb.com: LONDON (Mineweb) – Mineweb readers may have seen, from time to time, articles by Jeff Nichols of American Precious Metals Advisors – in this writer's opinion one of the more measured commentators on gold. In his latest remarks on the yellow metal he tells his followers that he is not a gold bug, but nevertheless he is still unwaveringly bullish on the precious metal's prospects for at least a few more years yet. So what is the difference between a gold bug and someone like Nichols who is just bullish on gold. The key is that as Nichols says, he actually sees nothing magical about gold, he does not attribute miraculous powers to it and doubts that it can return to its onetime historical role as providing the backing for the word's major currencies. He says that he is just a dispassionate economist, analyst, and observer of the U.S. and global economic, political, societal, and demographic trends – and it is only as such does he see a super-bullish long term future for gold. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com |
| Posted: 27 Aug 2012 06:17 AM PDT
With Labor Day weekend on deck, and two central bank speeches the focal point (ECB's Draghi and later Bernanke at Jackson Hole), there won't be a whole lot to sink one's teeth into. The strength of Apple's sweeping win over Samsung could sustain a pop for AAPL stock, which in turn could translate to further risk appetite, but counter to that is growing awareness that stimulus hopes are fading (the law of diminishing returns) and long-term investment rationales (e.g. being long past September) are getting thin on the ground. In the Mercenary Live Feed we remain substanially net short — some solar on the long side — with open profits on all positions. Our highest conviction position remains short the Aussie (AUDUSD), which just keeps looking better and better by the day, fundamentally… we are also closet dollar bulls, given our strong and growing suspicion that the impact of CB stimulus is way, way, way overrated and that the threat of global slowdown – in which the United States is the 'least bad' option – is still underrated / temporarily deterred by QE3 hopes which could soon evaporate. It's a good week to keep it light (in accordance with volume) and watch for elbows… there will no doubt be excellent opportunities in the upcoming weeks (and on into the 4th quarter) to really press for an advantage. NEWS FLOW
Germany is still meaningfully divided on eurozone rescue plans. In calling central bank stimulus "addictive like a drug," Bundesbank President Weidmann is breaking a taboo of sorts (by speaking actual truth about the situation). It remains to be seen how long investors can hold out the fiction that enough unity exists in the eurozone to push a crisis solution through. "Denial aint' just a river in Egypt," as the saying goes, but it is a powerful market force, which explains many trends… still, though, at some point painful awareness leads to a forced reality check.
The need for Merkel to rein in her own coalition, and face pushback from Germany's key financial institution, even as Germany stares into the face of recession, illustrates how high the stakes are becoming.
The geopolitical fear premium is always a presence in oil markets, at some times moreso than others. Another one of the embedded macro risks to markets is an energy supply shock at a time when the global economy is extremely weak. A severe spike in oil prices now, tied to a major supply disruption brought about, by, say, a successful strike on a Saudi Aramco facility would be the potential equivalent of a deflationary heart attack, as energy costs (which filter into everything) spike against a fragile earnings outlook and discretionary spending backdrop.
The massive victory for AAPL translates into a risk appetite positive as traders find reason to bid the most valuable and beloved company in the world ever higher. The next challenge for AAPL will be delivering on the iPhone 5, a bar that will be even higher (in terms of share price) as the stock gets bid up further in the Samsung aftermath. AAPL will now also have an edge in its battle with Google (GOOG) over smartphone related patent issues.
The Bundesbank President's characterization of central bank spending being "addictive like a drug" has already become a reality on both sides of the Atlantic. The question now is how juice is left in stimulus efforts given increasingly fierce macro headwinds and the law of diminishing returns. As with any recreational drug, the more you use, the more you need just to get the same high – eventually you find yourself "running to stand still" as various heroin addicts have described it. This week we get to see what will come of Jackson Hole speech hopes, and the market is about ready to start discounting the possibility of disappointment and/or post-partum stimulus depression after September stimulus is implemented. All in all, hope for stimulus is a weak trading rationale at best, and ultimately a terrible reason for investment optimism.
The outlook for U.S. households is terrible, and the U.S. is the best looking house in a bad neighborhood (to use one of the popular FX memes). A controversial study by the Bank of England lays bare the reality that common sense already made clear – quantitative easing is a form of "socialism for the rich, capitalism for the rest" that improves the standing of those with outsized exposure to paper assets, while screwing over everyone with nominal exposure to paper assets and heavy exposure to cost of living increases via food and energy inflation (which the Fed both perpetuates, via its paper-pushing policies, and arrogantly ignores). The most frightening aspect of the current food situation is tail risk – the possibility that things could get much, much worse. Will markets have to adopt to an agricultural fear premium, similar to the geopolitical fear premium embedded in oil prices? CHART NOTES
Thanks for reading, and if you'd like to ride along with us check out the Feed. JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com)   p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center! p.p.s. If you haven't already, check out the Mercenary Live Feed!
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| The Precious Metals MAJOR Breakout Part II Posted: 27 Aug 2012 05:57 AM PDT It has been a year since the price of gold bullion topped out and even longer for silver. Many traders and investors have been patiently waiting for this long term consolidation pattern to breakout and trigger the rally for precious metals and miner stocks. Most of gold bullion is used for investment purposes. As a result, it rises when there is economic weakness and investors lose confidence in the fiat currency of a country. With continuing economic weakness in the United States it will almost certainly lead the Federal Reserve to act in way that is more powerful than Operation Twist which is the selling of short term securities to buy those with a longer term. Based on the most recent data, economic growth in the United States is falling as the unemployment rate rises. A recent statement by the Federal Reserve was unusually clear in calling for greater action in the future.
Gold, Silver and Dollar Weekly Price Chart: Take a look at the weekly charts below which compare gold and silver to the US Dollar index. You will notice how major resistance for metals lines up with major support for the dollar. As this time metals are still in consolidation mode (down trend) and the dollar is in an uptrend.  Weekly Metals Outlook
Gold Miners ETF Weekly Chart: Gold miners have been under pressure for a long time and while they make money they have refused to boost dividends. That being said I feel the time is coming where gold miner companies breakout and rally then start to raise dividends in shortly after to really get share prices higher.  GDX - Gold Miner Stock ETF
On August 13th I talked about the characteristic's and how to trade the next precious metals breakout and where your money should be for the first half of the rally and where it should rotate into for the second half. Doing this could double you're returns. Read Part I: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/gold-mining-stocks-continue-to-disappoint-but-not-for-long/ Overall I feel a rally is nearing in metals that will lead to major gains. It may start this week or it still could be a couple months down the road. But when it happens there should be some solid profits to be had. I continue to keep my eye on this sector for when they technically breakout and start an uptrend. If you would like to get my weekly analysis on precious metals and the board market be sure to join my free newsletter at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen |
| Is ECB’s Draghi 'Currency Forger of Europe?' Posted: 27 Aug 2012 05:31 AM PDT Gold hit a high not seen since mid-April on Monday, continuing the momentum from last week's gains as investors expect further monetary stimulus from central banks and become increasingly concerned about inflation. |
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