saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Exploring The Relative Value Of U.S. Stocks
- Gold And S&P 500: A Portfolio For All Markets
- S&P 500: Tail That Wags The European Dog
- Nice Little Rally In Silver
- Rothschild – Richer than the Richest on Euro, Gold
- Russia Accumulates Gold As Consolidates Below Resistance At $1644/oz
- It’s “Worth Nuclear War” to Save the Dollar
- John Hathaway: This Financial System is Now in its Final Stages
- Gold & A Nasdaq Stock That Rocketed 117,000% Higher
- How to Cut America’s Healthcare Spending by 50%
- Gold Price and Indian Demand Shifting Trends
- Are Central Banks Cracking a Smile Now?
- Our Coming Rentcropper Society
- Prosperity Goldfields Completes Summer Exploration Program at Kiyuk Lake, Nunavut
- Russia Accumulates Gold During Consolidation
- Silver Hits 2-Month High with 'Bullish' Posture
- Gold & Silver Shine on Weaker US Dollar
- Mild Pullback
- Crisis-hit Italians selling gold jewellery to make ends meet
- This Banker Is Buying Gold: Casey's Daily Dispatch
- Seven King World News Blogs/Interviews
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 21 2012
- Links 8/21/12
- Silver, Solar, Citigroup
- Long-Term Technical Outlook for Gold & Silver
- Rothschild, Paulson, and Soros: All Betting Financial Disaster Coming Soon
| Exploring The Relative Value Of U.S. Stocks Posted: 21 Aug 2012 01:00 PM PDT By William Smead: Everyone wants to wait for the perfect time to buy into the stock market or into any major investment market. They want to enter at historically cheap prices or at "absolute values." We at Smead Capital Management believe that these people are kidding themselves and everybody else. At the time of historical lows and "absolute value," those same folks are too mortified to pull the trigger (think March of 2009) and always come up with the reason that "it's different this time." Inertia rules the day. Therefore, we have to deal in the world of "relative value." Thanks to a recent article in the Financial Times by Peter Tasker, we have access to some terrific long-term graphs on the value of a wide variety of investments and products priced in gold. In fact, Tasker references the website, http://pricedingold.com/, which has a treasure trove of information about where things are priced Complete Story » |
| Gold And S&P 500: A Portfolio For All Markets Posted: 21 Aug 2012 12:06 PM PDT By If you are a Seeking Alpha reader, then you are likely an investor and you know that sometimes you wished you had some extra money to buy a discounted stock. It happens a lot. I wanted to find an investment plan that can be used to buy stocks when there is a selling spree or when the prices are depressed. You can hold cash at all times, but you will be losing value steadily if the market enters into a bull run. As I kept digging, I thought it would be interesting to couple a broad-based market ETF with gold. The results are interesting. The index plus gold portfolio beats the market most of the time, and it's a lifesaver during a recession. For analysis, I used SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the heavily traded gold ETF, and the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500. GLD only started trading in November Complete Story » |
| S&P 500: Tail That Wags The European Dog Posted: 21 Aug 2012 11:45 AM PDT By Jon R. Orcutt: I am often asked about investing opportunities in Europe. With the European debt crisis dominating the headlines over the last two years, savvy investors have been looking for value investment opportunities. Who can blame us after seeing the rebound in our own markets, especially the S&P 500's (SPY), off of the lows reached as a result of our own banking sector meltdown. Although I'm sure there are value plays in Europe, when you look at the returns of broad-basket European equity investments you are not exactly seeing the same carnage as you did with U.S. equities during our own crisis. The S&P 500 has once again established itself as the premier benchmark, with a trailing 12 month total return of 29.05% as of the close on August 20th. This leadership has shown that the U.S. markets still command the world's attention. The strong performance in the S&P 500, I believe, Complete Story » |
| Posted: 21 Aug 2012 11:12 AM PDT |
| Rothschild – Richer than the Richest on Euro, Gold Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:44 AM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: A Rothschild brother, this time Jacob of RIT Capital Partners is in the news again, going short the euro currency with a $200 million position. It is unknown how the position is levered or structured; however, coming from this source, it is a big blow to confidence in the euro currency. Readers understand that confidence is the greatest asset that underpins a fiat currency. The Rothschild family is widely believed to control ownership in parts of the most influential central banks today due to their multi-generational history of understanding the value of, and capitalizing on, government enforced monopoly in currency creation. The "founding father of international finance," as Forbes put it, and patriarch of the family, Mayer Amschel Rothschild said: Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
| Russia Accumulates Gold As Consolidates Below Resistance At $1644/oz Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:40 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Today's AM fix was USD 1,624.00, EUR 1,308.94, and GBP 1,030.26 per ounce. Silver is trading at $28.95/oz, €22.40/oz and £18.44/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,495.75/oz, palladium at $604.70/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz. Gold rose $4.80 or 0.3% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,620.70/oz – its highest level in three months (since June 19). Silver dropped than rallied back to $28.83 ending the day with a gain of 2.64%. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com |
| It’s “Worth Nuclear War” to Save the Dollar Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:19 AM PDT
from beaconequity.com: "Both parties are driven by the neoconservatives ("neocons") who believe that American hegemony over the world is worth nuclear war to accomplish," states former Asst. Secretary of Treasury and Reagonics architect Paul Craig Roberts in his latest blog post of Aug. 20. In his post, titled, Amerika's Future is Death, the 73-year-old former Washington elite-turned-willful-outcast warns readers of fantastic tales circulating American culture, which are meant to serve as an explanation for the economic and social chaos swirling violently within the U.S., including talk of secret Bilderberg meetings, covert plans for a New World Order, and accusations of a crazy cabal of neocons hellbent on sparking a full-blown WWIII. The tale continues with an endgame scenario to secure complete U.S. hegemony with an attack upon Iran, completing a decades-long neocon plan to manhandle the freedom genie back into the bottle. Keep on reading @ beaconequity.com |
| John Hathaway: This Financial System is Now in its Final Stages Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:18 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: Yesterday in Gold and Silver Once again the gold price didn't do much of anything during the Far East trading session on Monday…and the Far East 'high' came just before 4:00 p.m. Hong Kong time…which was shortly before London opened for trading at 8:00 a.m. BST yesterday morning. From there, gold got sold off all through the early London trading session…and then got hit for a few more dollars about ten minutes after the Comex open in New York. That proved to be the low of the day…$1,609.00 spot…and gold rallied from there, but developed a few more legs starting at 11:00 a.m. Eastern, which also happened to be the close of London trading. Most of the significant gains were in by 11:30 a.m….and from there, gold mostly traded sideways into the close. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Gold & A Nasdaq Stock That Rocketed 117,000% Higher Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:15 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today 40 year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson, wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News. Fitzwilson, who is founder of The Portola Group, put together a fascinating piece which covers everything from the 90s bubble, to gold, silver and energy. Below is Fitzwilson's piece. "In the late '90s, it was not uncommon to be asked by prospective clients 'Why do I need you when I can just buy Cisco?' Cisco was, and still is a phenomenal company and story. On February 28, 1990, Cisco closed at $.07. On March 31, 2000, Cisco closed at $82.00. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| How to Cut America’s Healthcare Spending by 50% Posted: 21 Aug 2012 08:12 AM PDT
from oftwominds.com: The current sickcare system is financially unsustainable. Physician correspondent "Ishabaka" proposes practical ways we could cut costs by 50% while improving care. Since sickcare is fiscally and demographically unsustainable, it will eventually be replaced by something that is sustainable. Our only choice is to either let the current system collapse and then start pondering sustainable alternatives, or begin an honest discussion of sustainable alternatives before sickcare implodes in insolvency. In the spirit of openly discussing a variety of sustainable, systemic healthcare options, we present this essay by correspondent "Ishabaka" M.D. on how to cut our current (18% of GDP) healthcare spending by 50%. Ishabaka received training in Canada, so he has direct knowledge of the Canadian system from the inside. Having spent decades as a primary-care and emergency room physician in the U.S., he also has deep knowledge of the U.S. sickcare system from the point of view of a care provider to under-served (i.e. uninsured) Americans. Keep on reading @ oftwominds.com |
| Gold Price and Indian Demand Shifting Trends Posted: 21 Aug 2012 07:52 AM PDT |
| Are Central Banks Cracking a Smile Now? Posted: 21 Aug 2012 07:06 AM PDT A report by the Xinhua news agency appeared to indicate that the Chinese government might be preparing to stimulate the country's economy soon. Commodities specs ran with this news and pushed gold to $1,640, silver to $29.35 per ounce, and crude oil to $97 per barrel. |
| Our Coming Rentcropper Society Posted: 21 Aug 2012 06:51 AM PDT We are in the midst of a sea change in terms of the relationship of ordinary Americans to the housing market. Policymakers are not only in denial as to its magnitude, but are actively enabling courses of action that are likely to prove destructive. One of the accidental and fortunate discoveries of the 1930s was that a long-dated mortgage, meaning 15 to 30 years, was a good fit with working conditions of that era. The Home Owners Loan Corporation refinanced borrowers who were delinquent and in danger of losing their homes from short maturity mortgages to 20 to 25 year ones, considerably lowering borrower payments. This was considered a radical experiment at the time, and was expected to lose $1 billion, a very large sum in those days. When its operations ceased, it had shown a profit. One of the big reasons was the stability of employment. Job tenures were much longer than now; in fact, being fired was rare, and usually a result of business failure or distress, not management whim or need to meet quarterly earnings targets. And with the exception of some very large corporations that liked transferring managers (IBM stood for "I've been moved"), families were more likely to remain in the same house over the husband's working life. Much of this equation has been turned on its head. A college degree is now an entry requirement for many jobs. 94% of recent graduates borrowed to finance their education and the average debt level across all student debtors is over $23,000. And the fact that student debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy means that young people are less likely to buy a house than in the past, and will take longer to accumulate enough savings to do so. On top of that, the uncertainty of employment makes buying a house a much dodgier proposition than in the past. One of the paradigmatic stories of our day is how people in their 40s and 50s who lose a job either can't find work at all, and join the ranks of the long-term unemployed, or take a large cut in pay. If they haven't paid off their mortgage, that loss of income often leads to foreclosure. Ever shortening job tenures increases the odds of an abrupt, permanent fall in pay. And as Elizabeth Warren described in The Two Income Trap, two earner families are more vulnerable economically than the old working dad, stay at home model. Given this sea change in the stability of middle class income, it seems obvious that home ownership will not be attainable for many workers. Moreover, some may recognize that even if they can afford to buy, that the risk/return tradeoff may still make rental more attractive for them. In some respects, this transition is already underway. Homeownership is now at its lowest level in 15 years. And some societies have much higher levels of renting than the US, most notably Germany. But there is a second major shift underway, which is a planned transfer of large number of homes into the hands of private equity landlords. Fannie and Freddie are now piloting programs for bulk sales of foreclosed home. Historically, they've sold them individually or in geographically dispersed packages, but since February, Fannie has been experimenting with selling homes in large volumes in Phoenix, Atlanta, Chicago, Florida, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. There are also reports of investors making significant buys in Florida. Bank of America is also experimenting with bulk sales. It's likely that once the Fannie and Freddie programs are up and running, the servicers will copy their template with private label loans. While the bulk sales programs allows not for profits and government bodies to participate, the main target is private equity investors. And the expectation is that fortunes will be made. As one prospective buyer said, "If the government is selling, I want to be on the other side of that trade." Major PE firms are raising multi-billion dollar funds dedicated to this opportunity. There are several grounds for concern. One is that there is no model for large-scale, absentee landlords of single family homes. In the past, institutional investment in residential rental has been in multifamily properties, often apartment buildings. And these almost without exception had property management in place at the time of acquisition or was in dense urban areas where it was easy to find experienced management firms. And even in locales where those services are available, PE firms have too often proven to be bad landlords by design. Consider New York City, which provide considerable protections for tenants (both in rent regulated and market price units) that cannot be waived in a rental agreement (although sneaky landlords are known to try to persuade tenants otherwise). One would think that would make it plenty uninviting for private equity investors, since they have high return targets. But in fact the PE crowd has made acquisitions, and as of 2008 owned 6% of the rent regulated apartments in the city. Their plan was not simply to wait for normal turnover to allow them to increase rents to market rate but to help nature along. As Gretchen Morgenson wrote:
The highest profile example was Stuyvesant Town, a $5.4 billion acquisition by Blackrock and Tishman Speyer that filed for bankruptcy in 2010. This anodyne section of a New York Times story gives a sense of the level of landlord misbehavior:
Similarly, in 2010, the Village Voice listed two private equity firms, Vantage and Cronos Capital, among the ten worst landlords. One name often bandied about as a prospective bulk sales buyer is Fortress. Tenants beware. The model for Fortress appears to be the Gagfah. Some cash-strapped German cities were privatizing housing, and Fortress-controlled Gagfah bought 45,000 rental units from Dresden. Gagfah agreed to give existing tenants the right of first refusal on any sale. It was also criticized in local media for neglecting repairs. Gagfah was sued for €1 billion by Dresden and settled for €40 million What can we expect from our new suburban absentee landlords? First is they don't seem to appreciate how operationally intensive property management is. Second is that they plan to make tenants responsible for maintaining properties. Yes, you read this correctly; we've heard this from various sources. Having both owned and rented, one of the nice things about renting is that when Shit Happens, like a leak, reasonably well run buildings are on top of it pronto. By contrast, what does "renting" mean if you as tenant are responsible for some, potentially a lot, of what would seem to be the owner's responsibility? A comment from a PE investor in a recent post breezily presents their assumptions:
First, the "well qualified providers of ownership services" are the companies services now hire to manage real estate they've foreclosed on. I'm sure readers will elaborate in comments, but there is considerable evidence that their competence level is low: homes that have not been secured properly and were stripped for copper and appliances (even in upscale neighborhoods), death because children fell in pools that weren't drained; squatting; and more mundane problems like overgrown lawns. And what is this "pervasive connectivity" about? So you can text rather than call an emergency service? So what is the line between "capital repairs" and "maintenance"? The subtext is that the PE crowd intends to take as narrow a view of what constitutes required repairs as possible; the reports of PE landlords from hell and underinvestment in Stuy Town would tend to confirm that. Reader Doug Terpstra also begged to differ with the remark quoted above (boldface his):
Now readers might wonder: wouldn't it be in the best interest of these landlords to do at least an adequate job of taking care of the properties? After all, don't they intend to sell the houses, preferably as soon as they seem some price appreciation? Don't be so sure. First, one possible acquirer is the current tenant; you might see financed sales or rent to own structures. And prospective owners would presumably buck the efforts to dump maintenance on them less than those who weren't potential buyers. Second, the mortgage industry has long been keen to securitize rentals, and these bulk sales programs would give them enough properties to move this scheme forward. Imagine the fees! And imagine how well this will work from the perspective of tenants. As with mortgages, you'd presumably have a servicer who'd handle taking and accounting for the rental payments and lease renewals as well as handling whatever in the way of repairs and maintenance they deigned to provide. Given how accountable and responsive servicers have been, I shudder to think how these securitization servicers would perform. So as we indicated, there is good reason to expect that the new PE landlords will undermaintain the properties they buy. That in turn has implications for the neighboring properties. At a minimum, you can expect to see more turnover in those homes (tenants less inclined to renew leases) and/or bad landlords getting a name (in this world of pervasive connectivity, it will be much easier to find that sort of thing out). Thus it is in the interest of homeowners to push for tougher rental standards to help protect property values and encourage long-term stable tenancy (something you see in places like New York where tenants have solid legal protections). This program is troubling not just on its own, but also as another manifestation of the falling status of the American middle class. As Matt Stoller wrote:
The one plus ordinary Americans have in the coming rental conversion is that this is a battle that can be fought on a local level, where major financial players seldom bother buying political favors and can easily misjudge who the key players are. Stronger rental rights, which would discourage absentee rentiers from bidding up properties, would also work to the advantage of local landlords who have been the traditional owners of residential rental properties. This is a battle that can be won, provided homeowners get word soon enough that a quiet battle for their communities is about to be joined.
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| Prosperity Goldfields Completes Summer Exploration Program at Kiyuk Lake, Nunavut Posted: 21 Aug 2012 06:29 AM PDT VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Aug 21, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Prosperity Goldfields Corp. (the "Company" or "Prosperity") (tsx venture:PPG) announces the completion of the summer exploration program on its 100% owned Kiyuk Lake Gold Project, Nunavut (the "Property"). The objectives of the summer program were: to field check a new glacial geology map of the Property; to collect till geochemical samples over the entire 590 sq km Property; to grid till sample priority targets; and to prospect and geologically map known targets and new areas of interest to refine drill targeting. "This carefully planned summer exploration program by six geologists, four samplers and the supporting team has exceeded our expectations," commented Adrian Fleming, PPG CEO. "More samples were collected than planned, the early semi-quantitative hand-held XRF results are compelling and a much improved understanding of the geology and controls to mineralization has resulted. We eagerly await the full assay results from this recent work." Highlights Prosperity Goldfields press continues at the link below. Source: Prosperity Goldfields via MarketWatch Link for images: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/ppg821i.pdf Disclosure: Prosperity Goldfields is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI). Members of the GGR team may hold long positions in PPG.V . |
| Russia Accumulates Gold During Consolidation Posted: 21 Aug 2012 05:26 AM PDT Gold continues to be supported by the real risk of European Monetary Union break up and further weakness in the euro, dollar and other currencies. Gold continues to consolidate below its 200 day moving average at $1,644/oz. |
| Silver Hits 2-Month High with 'Bullish' Posture Posted: 21 Aug 2012 05:08 AM PDT Spot market prices to buy silver rose to their highest level in two months Tuesday, hitting $29.09 per ounce – 3.5% up on last week's close – after extending gains from yesterday's trading. |
| Gold & Silver Shine on Weaker US Dollar Posted: 21 Aug 2012 04:03 AM PDT The US dollar is fundamentally weaker than it appears to be based on the USDX. Gold, silver and related mining shares will rally heading into late 2012 and are likely to break out dramatically as current trends develop. |
| Posted: 21 Aug 2012 03:28 AM PDT I believe we are close to a peak and may see a mild pullback for the week. Stats and commentary are as of August 16. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 13,250.11 +85.33 on the fifth touch at this peak price. Momentum was slipping mildly on normal volume. Wednesday's volume was an annual record low. Brokers are on vacation and it seems very little is moving. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. However, 13,250 is a hard number at this peak considered both major resistance and support. Look for channeled trading on very light volume over the next few sessions. We are near or, on a peak where a mild pullback is expected. Expect sideways trading on this Friday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1415.51 +9.99 on normal but higher volume today with gently rising momentum. There is peaky, top resistance at 1425 and we could go there either on Friday, or Monday. There is a possibility of an overshoot to 1450, which would definitely be hard resistance and a price blocker. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. On very light vacation volume, the stock index markets are now in levitation. There might be a few more points upward to 1425. While there is chance for 1450, I would give it a one in three before a sideways, toppy action and pre-selling correction consolidation begins. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 650.58 +4.45 on normal volume and rising but flattening momentum. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. Support and resistance is right on the close at 650. The price bar finished on a higher close signaling there could be more buying above 650 on Friday, or Monday. However, this is such a solid, topping number on the technicals, this could be our high price for this cycle and wave set. If so, a normal ABC consolidation is next. Expect little movement in this index on Friday barring some excellent news. Today's trading took out our previous annual high posted at the end of March earlier this year. Since this is a political year, we can see more price support than normal. However, this does not obviate the normal fundamentals and technicals. It means we'll see abnormal support trading for the last of August and the first two week of September. Look for a flat Friday with a chance at 3-5 points higher. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2768.09 +32.62 as Cisco reported a good quarter for both sales and net profits. Volume was about 115% of normal and momentum was up. All this despite the problems with Facebook shares being released and heavily sold after a lock-up. Our Facebook share price forecast low is $7 to $8.00. This was confirmed to me also by two other top analysts. Current support and resistance is $20.00. The Nasdaq price bar gapped higher in bull mode and finished with a close in the top 1/3rd of trading range. This signals more buying tomorrow. We have to wonder how much longer this can continue as the tech sector continues to come in with problems and weaker numbers. That is not the case for now, so we should see more buying on Friday to a touch at 2800 resistance then, or earlier next week. If for some reason this buying can continue, this market is a leading indicator for more buying in the other stock indexes despite the toppy, or flat technicals we see in those other markets. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 145.81 -0.55 on falling momentum and a selling price that seems to have found support at 145.50. The bonds have sold-off from a peak near 153.00 to an eight point drop, which is large. With stocks rising, bonds have been selling. With a peak in stocks near and new support for the bond market, we can see a role reversal next week beginning to take hold. Resistance is 146.50 and support is 145.00-145.50. There are two strong supports posted in fall 2011 with another one posted in January of this year. Normally, this market is slower to move but the European troubles have roiled the markets throughout the world. There is very solid support on the 200-day average at 144.02. We may go there next on an overshoot before the price turns around and goes higher to settle down. The new go-to magnet number nearby for the bonds is 145.00. We should be there tomorrow on Friday. Gold: Closed at 1614.50 +10.30 on flat momentum as the price rises gently in a longer bull flag. This flag is a 2.5 month continuation triangle with the current price touching support and resistance on 1615.50. Price is being held down by the force of the 200-day moving average at 1622.08. We need some solid closes above that number to breakout and move higher. Support is the 20-day average at 1605.37 and the stronger 50-day average at 1602.89. All of these moving averages, one channel line and the bull flag pattern are working together to squeeze price and soon pop it out and above the flag. This can last another week, or so but the trend is obvious with higher flag lows. John Paulson and George Soros were heavy buyers of GLD this past week. Expect sideways to up pressure over the next few sessions until gold cleanly breaks out. Silver: Closed at $28.21 +0.35 on rising but flattening momentum. However, the suppressed silver price has a big bull parabolic pattern with the 50-day average supporting at $27.99. Resistance is the 200-day moving average at 30.30, which is hard resistance. When silver begins to rally and we think it's even closer to that than gold, watch for a quick run to $30.30 against the 200-day moving average. Hard lower support is $27.48 on price. The price of $34.56 would be a 50% positive retracement. That number was previously at $38.85, but since that older forecast, posted averages and trading have pulled it back. Expect lighter buying on Friday for this market. XAU: Closed at 160.65 +5.03 on rising momentum (strong) and a crossed-over bull move in the all important metal-to-shares ratio. This five point up-move for the PM shares was long overdue and welcome. With a close on the trading range top, we see more buying on Friday. Support and resistance is the 160.00 close being a higher number above two moving averages. Usually the XAU lags the gold and silver markets. This time it appears to be the leading buying indicator, signaling abnormal strength due to being so oversold. Next resistance is the 200-day average at 171.33 where we go next. US Dollar: Closed at 82.39 -0.27 after the Euro got support and the dollar closed at the bottom of the trading range. The Euro should be selling but political and banker media talk has given it support and capped the dollar to begin selling. The dollar is under the 20 and 50 day averages with the 200-day being big support at 80.53. With falling momentum and a supporting Euro, we see the dollar selling back to a close near 82.00-81.50 very quickly. The dollar is in a down pattern for Friday. Crude Oil: Closed at 95.13 +0.93 on rising momentum. The current trading range is 92.50 to 96.50. Price closed on an up-bar signaling more buying on Friday. Resistance is 95.00-96.50, which could trap price near the open in the morning on Friday. The very strong 200-day moving average offers nearby support. The pattern is set-up for more buying on Friday and maybe Monday, taking the price to 96.50 resistance. Fundamentals signal more buying and a clean breakout rally above 96.50 should take the price to 98.50 resistance. With more inflation coming, and war drums beating in the Middle East, we see hard pressure toward rising prices. Look for Friday gains of $1.50, or so to $96.50 resistance. CRB: Closed at 302.39 +0.68 with the close just above the 200-day moving average at 301.83. There is also very strong CRB support at 300.00 price. The other moving averages are below 300.00. We are in price congestion right now as grains, metals, and oil sold, and then came back in to buy. Expect more sideways choppy trading as the price works its way around and through a nearby up-trending channel line. CRB trades should stay between 300.00 and 305.00 for most of next week barring unforeseen news. –Traderrog   This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Crisis-hit Italians selling gold jewellery to make ends meet Posted: 21 Aug 2012 03:24 AM PDT  Times are now so tough that Valerio Novelli, a ticket inspector on Rome's buses, is planning to sell his old gold teeth. In a country suffering from economic crisis, buying gold off desperate people has become one of the few boom industries. City centres are being transformed as traditional shops go out of business, their signs replaced by ones that announce "Compro Oro", or "I Buy Gold". The Eurispes think tank estimates the number of "Compro Oro" shops has quadrupled in the last two years. The growth of the industry is "a very good indicator of the level of hardship in the country," said Gian Maria Fara, the think tank's president. |
| This Banker Is Buying Gold: Casey's Daily Dispatch Posted: 21 Aug 2012 03:24 AM PDT  Jeff Clark interviewed Chuck Butler, senior vice president of world markets at EverBank at our last Summit, and even though a few months have passed, the information is just as valid today, if not more so. In this twelve-minute video, Jeff asks Chuck about inflation vs. deflation, why the US dollar is still holding up, how much gold and silver to own, the best currencies for diversification, and his best advice for investors. This was the introduction that Louis James gave in yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch...and the interview with Chuck runs 11:51 minutes. The link is here. |
| Seven King World News Blogs/Interviews Posted: 21 Aug 2012 03:24 AM PDT  The first blog is with John Hathaway...and it's headlined "This Financial System Is Now In Its Final Stages". The second is with John Embry. It's entitled "Apple, Gold, Manipulation & Financial Implosion". |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 21 2012 Posted: 21 Aug 2012 03:00 AM PDT |
| Posted: 21 Aug 2012 02:29 AM PDT The Laughs Were on Her, by Design New York Times Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women? Michael Shedlock How Google autocompletes 'why is?' question about news outlets and media people Jim Romenesko (Lambert) WikiLeaks and Free Speech Michael Moore and Oliver Stone, New York Times The War in the Shadows Chris Hedges China's July electricity usage rises MacroBusiness Grexit looms again MacroBusiness E.C.B. Rejects Speculation About Its Bond-Buying Intentions New York Times. So much for believing rumors from Der Spiegel. But we do have this: Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph EU Probes Cigarette Deal That May Have Aided Syria Wall Street Journal UN Investigator to US: End 'Conspiracy of Silence' on Drone Strikes Common Dreams (furzy mouse) Judge questions new curb on detainees' lawyers SCOTUSblog (Lambert) Investors in Health Care Seem to Bet on Incumbent New York Times. Further proof of ObamaCare as pork to Big Pharma and insurers. 'Americans For Inequality' Facebook Group Endorses Romney-Ryan Ticket Huffington Post (Warren B) Krugman Slams Newsweek's "Unethical" Obama-Bashing Cover Alternet (furzy mouse) Buffett's Move Raises Red Flag Wall Street Journal (Joe Costello) Uncle Sam Needs YOU for a Bailout: 6 Reasons Another Big Banking Crisis Is Coming Our Way Alternet Citi chief rejects calls for bank splits Financial Times. Duh! Good due diligence is defined by the deals you walk away from John Hempton (Richard Smith) Warren Pollock and Ann Barnhardt On the Increased Risk to Customers In the US Financial System Jesse (Francois T) Why So Few Mega-Credit Card Class Action Settlements? Adam Levitin ART CASHIN: A Gigantic Cauldron Of Geo-Political Risk Is Bubbling Clusterstock Top Marginal tax rates: 1916-2011 Barry Ritholtz (furzy mouse) * * * lambert here: D – 20 and counting* "… and laugh At gilded butterflies, and hear poor rogues Talk of court news …" –William Shakespeare, King Lear Occupy. Coalition to March on Wall Street South: "For the next two weeks leading up to the March on Wall Street South on Sunday, September 2, we will release at least one video each day featuring an organizer from our Coalition who lives, works, and calls Charlotte, NC or a nearby city home." … CMWSS: "'This is a safe, permitted, family-friendly demonstration that we're building,' said organizer Ben Carroll." … CMWSS Solidarity Center: "Solidarity Center will serve as a place for several local organizers to meet and network with other activists and hold workshops before and during the Democratic National Convention." …. Occupy Tampa: Ariel Fernandez helped organize Occupy Tampa and did the same with Occupy St. Petersburg. "I'm 33, and everywhere I go, everything I do, I know there could be a camera on me. People who go to these events, they can't act out because the whole world is watching. There are eyes on you." IA. Polls: "The final count of corn kernels cast by 2012 Iowa State Fair visitors: 39,714 for Romney, 32,502 for Obama. I'm surprised it was that close. " LA. Corruption: "[F]ormer Mayor Ray Nagin has been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury later this week. In June, a former city contractor said the former mayor took a $50,000 payoff and free granite for his family's business." … Media critique: "[S]ome of the seven people arrested in a fatal shootout with LA deputies have been linked to violent anarchists on the FBI's domestic terrorism watch lists, a sheriff said. [T]he suspects were heavily armed adherents to an ideology known as the 'sovereign citizens' movement." AP, FBI: Clever up. Anarchists and "sovereign citizens" are like chalk and cheese. MA. Voting: "[MA AG] Galvin explained that he felt an investigation by the DA's office was necessary because in the course of his office's investigation into reports of hundreds of absentee ballots requested on the behalf of unsuspecting residents, many of whom were registered Ds." … Money: "In January, Warren and Brown agreed to a voluntary enforcement system to keep interest groups from running ads aimed at influencing the election. If an outside group runs a [non-print] advertisement, the campaign that benefits must pay a penalty to charity. [W]hen two groups spent small sums on Brown's behalf, [Brown quickly donated] $1,000 and $34,545 checks [and] helped erase doubts that the candidates would comply." MI. Corruption: "A MI State Police detective said he believed House Speaker Jase Bolger and state Rep. Roy Schmidt may have conspired to commit perjury when they recruited a fake D candidate to run for a Grand Rapids House seat, records obtained by the Free Press show." NV. Voting: "U.S. District Court Judge Robert C. Jones will hear Townley v State of Nevada. This is the lawsuit over "None of the above" (actually, in Nevada, it is "None of These Candidates"). Plaintiffs argue that if that [if] NV is going to have a 'NOTA' then if 'NOTA' gets the most votes, no one is elected." NY. Fracking: "Cuomo's administration is pursuing a plan to limit the controversial drilling method known as hydraulic fracturing to portions of several struggling New York counties along the border with PA [Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Steuben and Tioga], and to permit it only in communities that express support for the technology." Sacrifice zones. … Fracking: "A group of 76 lawmakers sent a letter to Cuomo today asking him to ban the recycling of wastewater before allowing any drilling in the state, among other concerns." … Protest: "Over 100 people, organized by the left-leaning Community Voices Heard, marched on the suburban residences of Gov. Cuomo and Senate Majority Leader Skelos to protest the state's inaction on proposals to raise the minimum wage and tighten the state's campaign finance laws." OH. BoF: "Akin is currently in Ohio at the offices of Rex Elsass, Republican media consultant. Elsass is also John Kasich's campaign media consultant and was paid nearly ten million dollars by Building a Better Ohio to help protect Senate Bill 5." TX. Horticulture: "The low watering requirements are just one reason why Hermann Park intends to install its third pocket prairie. Meanwhile, the second is being renovated to feature a walking path and signs with QR codes so visitors can find out information on the plants with their cellphones." VA. Land use: "'We would like the officials of the Greater Richmond Chamber, Venture Richmond and the Richmond Flying Squirrels to understand that there will be no baseball stadium or any other sports venue constructed on the land where hundreds of thousands of African women men, children and even babies were sold like chattel animals in order that the wealthy white businessmen of that era could profit from their unpaid labor and suffering." WI. Ryan: "[Rob] Zerban thinks he has what it takes to supplant Ryan [who's running for VP and for re-election in the district]. He cites his impoverished childhood, in which he ate "government cheese" and relied on federal loans to fund his higher education. Zerban ran two food service businesses, retiring at age 40 for a career in public service. … Public goods: "A Burlington Area School District Board member has been censured for commenting that 'school personnel were like cattle and should be struck with a 2-by-4 so as to get their attention,' according to board meeting minutes." WY. Fracking: "A former researcher who says he left the Colorado School of Mines due to pressure from the oil and gas industry has now lost his university job in Wyoming after an industry association complained to his superiors about comments he made about fracking." Outside baseball. Drones: "It's a national census for government drone usage, and we need your help." … Market state: "[Teach for America] was launched to serve public schools so poor or dysfunctional they couldn't attract qualified teachers [and] now sends fully a third of its recruits to privately run charter schools, many with stellar academic reputations, flush budgets and wealthy donors." … Fracking: "[C]ompanies with cash needs — such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Encana Corp., and others including Cecil-based Consol Energy Inc. and Downtown-based EQT Corp. — [have shifted] more focus to liquid-rich [ethane, propane and butane] areas." … Ethanol: "The governors of NC and AR asked the [EPA] last week to temporarily waive the U.S. quota on ethanol made from corn, because the worst drought in 50 years has driven corn prices higher and hurt livestock producers who depend on the grain for feed." …. Go die: "While the unemployed population has fallen by less than 10 percent in the past year, the [unemployment] insurance rolls are down by nearly 25 percent." Grand Bargain™-brand Cat Food watch. VA interview: "[OBAMA: ] 'Ds have to understand we're going to need some additional spending cuts, and Rs have to understand we're going to need some additional revenues.' By Sept. 6, the Obama administration will issue a report to Congress about how the cuts would be implemented." Off the table: Aircraft carriers "that do the job," SEALS. Not mentioned: Medicare, Social Security. The trail. What It Takes: "Mix chicken broth mixture and turkey with spaghetti. Top with remaining cheese. Bake for 1 hour 15 minutes in the preheated oven, until surface is lightly browned." The final step in "Mike" Dukakis's recipe for turkey tetrazzini. Go read. … Polls: "Obama, who in 2008 became the first African American elected president, maintains a slight lead over challenger Romney in the battleground states likely to decide the election, 47%-44%. That's better than his standing in the non-battleground states, where Romney leads 47%-45%." … Money: "Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee ended July with $126.9 million left in the bank, a notable disadvantage for an incumbent president compared to Romney's $185.9 million, including money stocked away by the national GOP." Conventions. Deciding: "18.1 million voters decided their votes at the time of the 2004 conventions and 26.3 million decided then in 1988." RNCcon. Pre-positioning: "Yet [Mayor Bob Buckhorn] also rarely speaks of the convention without mentioning security and his concerns about 'anarchists' provoking violence. He and other officials have scrutinized reports from past conventions, a recent NATO conference in Chicago and other high-profile events." Another D mayor…. Protester housing: "Closest to the action is Romneyville, a hive of mostly pink tents set up on N Tampa Street. Bruce Wright, who runs the site under the flag of the Poor People's Economic Human Rights Campaign, said he expects the 30-person camp to grow to up to 300 people when the convention arrives. A few miles away is the Occupy Tampa site, at the Voice of Freedom Park in West Tampa, owned by strip club proprietor Joe Redner." DNCon. Streaming: "Protesters during the Democratic National Convention are by law allowed to photograph, videotape and audio-record anything in plain site, without restriction, said city attorneys during an online forum Monday night. The only instance where it could become a problem would be if someone's photography or videography were impairing police from making an arrest on a third party, [City attorney] Newbold said." Interesting detail. … The terrain: "Police are confident the layout of the city will be their biggest asset (convention-related activities will take place in the heart of the [Charlotte] business district, which is flat and ringed by expressways)." … Unions: "Sanitation workers picketed outside the Government Center. Some workers said they hope national activists would pressure the state to repeal its ban on collective bargaining by public employees. Romney. Squee: "After the closing prayer, which asked for God's guidance through the rest of the day, Mr. Romney wiped his eyes." John 11:35. … Mr. Warmth: "The campaign aides are determined to overcome perceptions that Mr. Romney is stiff, aloof and distant. So they have built one of the most intricate set pieces ever designed for a convention ." Alrighty then. … Voting: "Like the purloined letter pinned prominently in plain sight, what Romney's really hiding might be something more mundane: the home address written on the top of the tax form. Tax returns require taxpayers to state their residence address. So here's the question: did Romney put his son's basement's address on the returns he filed in 2009 and 2010? Or did he truthfully use his real (non-Massachusetts) address, thus implicating himself in voter fraud?" Obama. Squee: "The newest photo of the Obama family was released on Monday, of the Obama family going to church on Sunday here. Malia and Sasha are growing up; the girls are back from a month at a New Hampshire summer camp." Akins flap. So dire Obama holds a presser: "[OBAMA: 'Male politicians] shouldn't be making decisions on behalf of women for their health care decisions or qualifying forcible rape versus non-forcible rape. Those are broader issues and that is a significant difference in approach between me and the other party.'" … The timing, Lynn Sweet: "The remark puts Rs up and down the ticket on the defensive to start the week as the Ds are pushing out the science-defying comment of the MO lawmaker." … The timing: "We'll see if this is a one-day story or the beginning of a pre-convention political firestorm." … Firestorm: "Kansas City's KCTV5 replayed Akin's comment twice and interviewed a rape victim at the top of the 10 p.m. news: "I heard that comment, and I just began to shake," the rape victim says, her face off-camera." … Best headline EVAH: "Akin rape comment doesn't help GOP with women, experts say" … A gold star for trying: "[CONNIE MACK: ] "Like Joe Biden's comments last week, I find Todd Akin's comments made Sunday to be just as outrageous and offensive." … Withdrawal: "The MO deadline to withdraw from a ballot is 5 p.m. Tuesday." … Defenestration: "[JOHN CORNYN (NRSC chair): "Over the next 24 hours, Congressman Akin should carefully consider what is best for him, his family, the R Party, and the values that he cares about and has fought for throughout his career in public service." ... Even Karl Rove: "Crossroads GPS said on Monday that it would withdraw a new slew of ads on the MO Senate race." ... Even the Tea Party Express: "He should step down and give conservatives a chance at taking back the Senate in November." ... Refenestration: "Just before 8 p.m. Eastern time[, Akins tweeted:] 'I have just begun to fight and I'm in this race to the end!'" … Polls, PPP (D): "[O]nly 6 percent of R women polled intend to vote for McCaskill and that although 75 percent of voters say Akin's comments were 'innappropriate,' most still will vote along party lines." … Best laid plans: "The R party needs to win a net four seats to gain control of the Senate. It had identified Missouri as an easy target." * 20 days until the Democratic National Convention ends with haggis for everyone on the floor of the * * * Antidote du jour:
And a bonus. Some people in OWS are looking for simple, effective ways to counter anti bank reform messaging. Do you like this sort of thing? Do you think it's effective?
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| Posted: 21 Aug 2012 02:26 AM PDT
Monday was largely quiet in respect to the major indices, but market internals are improving. AAPL surpassing the milestone of "most valuable company of all time" (in nominal terms) also surely added to positive sentiment. We spend less time looking at things like A/D lines and, through a combination of automated and human screening processes, digest the gestalt input of hundreds of charts each day (in addition to the few dozen bellwethers we track). The overall message continues to be, "bulls gaining traction." This does not speak to what may happen in September. But it speaks loudly to right now. Giving a sense of tone and tenor, three notable breakouts on Monday:
Silver has been threatening further decline via bearish weekly chart for months now, but is showing clear sign of resolving to the upside instead. Silver bulls, who held through a significantly challenging period, may have passed a psychological 'Soros test' of sorts in which their base of conviction now converts to confidence and further buying. We are not long silver at moment, but will be watching for inflection points both in the metal and in select individual silver stocks. In the silver space, Couer D'Alene (CDE) has already taken off but many other silver names are still just waking up from sluggish sleep and preparing to clear their bearish descending weekly channels. Solar stocks have been a long-time whipping boy for bears, which creates substantial upside opportunity via short-covering alone. For example First Solar (FSLR), one of the highest profile solar names, showed a recent short interest (via Wall Street Journal data) of nearly 49%! In addition to major short interest build-up, solar stocks have been depressed by supply gut and a bearish outlook for crude oil. Both of those factors could now be shifting. We have an established long position in TAN – all positions documented in the Mercenary Live Feed – and will be incrementally looking to add via individual names if the trend lasts. Regardless of whether this is a false trend, it is a false trend with potential staying power via the short positioning of bearish hedge funds who are more investors than traders. (The type to hold on to their shorts too long, 'fight the tape,' and then blow out at higher and higher levels of uptrend as their thesis, and P&L, gets eaten by price.) Citigroup (C), the bank that so many love to hate, is interesting in what its surge potentially has to say for the financials. Could blue skies for the financials finally be returning? A rise in long-term yields could actually be a POSITIVE for financials, if such indicates a return of risk appetite and an ability for banks to start lending again (thus making money in the classic 'borrow short / lend long' model that created financial institutions in the first place.) In addition to the above, the euro is surging overnight (below circa 5 hours prior to NYSE open):
The EURUSD breakout is technically significant and, if it holds, another significant positive driver for risk assets. Note that a sustained move above the 50, if it happens, would be the first one since March! In the Live Feed we have a handful of select shorts, but are increasingly leaning towards pressing our "rented longs." Our bullish view does NOT extend out for multiple quarters, and may not last more than a few weeks – come pale September, much of the present positivity could quickly reverse. But we are traders, and being traders, we have the ability to respond to catalysts and inflection points as they arise. (It is sometimes important to point out the distinction between a trading point of view and an investing point of view, as investors will sometimes wrongly assume that a trading perspective, with a max shelf-date of weeks or months, extends out longer than it does. When it comes to what will happen in the next three months, six months, twelve months etcetera, we remain resolutely agnostic.) In addition to above mentioned areas of opportunity (silver, solar stocks where we already have a base position, possibly financials), we are increasingly drawn to energy stocks. While the current trends in energy and crude oil look moderately overbought, there are still many energy names with relatively low valuations and attractive technical patterns. Such names will call out to money managers who are 'not long enough' and looking for safe places to inject more cash into this rally. And of course, if you want to see exactly what positions we are taking, how we are sizing them, handling risk etc., all is made transparent (and time-stamped) via our real money executions in the Live Feed. NEWS FLOW
Consider the following socio-economic contrast: AAPL just became the most valuable company of all time, in nominal terms, even as desperately poor Italians sell their gold teeth (literally, read the article) in the hopes of scraping up whatever cash they can. A great historic theme is the growing divide between rich and poor. In the second half of the 20th century that gap was narrowed somewhat by the rise of a Western middle class. Now the gap is widening again furiously. Wall Street (and the majority of corporate earnings) is driven by the spending power of the top 30%, along with 'up and comers' (those not yet maxed out on debt) in developing world countries. As for the dying middle class, and the large 70% or so majorities in the United States and Europe who are scraping to get by, feeling more and more pinched by 'austerity' programs, lack of employment, and rising food costs day by day… they simply don't matter. No one cares about them at all. The stock market certainly does not. The markets will care, however, when the political dynamic turns explosive… What the above represents is another major macro crisis in the making, on par with any of the predicted crises involving government debt, demographics, and so on. It is just a matter of when we reach a civil unrest tipping point, and or a political demagoguery acceleration point as the poor and disenfranchised realize they still possess a voting majority… Anyone see the irony in Goldie telling clients to 'get out' of stocks even as the bullish internals look more favorable than they have in a long time? Of course, any forecasts longer than inflection point short-term in this environment are just silly guesses. The talking head investment strategists who go on CNBC and talk about what they foresee in six months, twelve months and so on are just wasting everyone's time. There is flexible response to developments and opportunities as they unfold, and then there is hot air. It will be interesting to watch bank lending levels. If we see those accelerate, then a rising inflation / higher yields recipe could really be locked in, which would have all sorts of interesting implications (not all of them purely bullish for markets). On the other hand, if the long-term bond bulls are right — and they do exist, and are credible — then the current decline in USTs is only temporary, as is this short-term burst of economic optimism, and the worst (along with the lowest yields) is yet to come… Die-hard China bulls, who have found every excuse to reiterate their optimistic stance over and over, in spite of the facts, have proven themselves the worst sort of cheerleaders. More long-only types who can't sell, because it would hurt whatever form of long-only product they are ideologically handcuffed to, and can't stop talking their biased book. China is still a major risk factor for implosion. Temporary improvements in the China situation are not cause to think China has "bottomed," but instead potential bull traps in our view.
Good riddens to a god-awful flash in the pan business model that will look embarrassing from the perspective of history – yet another in the endless string of examples of over-enthusiastic investors swallowing hype and taking full leave of their senses. CHART NOTES
In final note, it may be little more than hunch but, after a slow summer, we are developing the sense that something 'big' is going to happen this fall. Someone is likely to make a lot of money (hopefully us) in the final four months of the year… JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com) p.s. Institutional allocator seeks talented traders and money managers. Potential allocation amount: $2 to $10 million. See if your track record qualifies... 
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| Long-Term Technical Outlook for Gold & Silver Posted: 21 Aug 2012 12:51 AM PDT Knowing that it's very likely that gold and silver have bottomed, we feel it is time to look at the charts and assess what may or may not be in store over the next year or two. |
| Rothschild, Paulson, and Soros: All Betting Financial Disaster Coming Soon Posted: 21 Aug 2012 12:42 AM PDT
from theeconomiccollapseblog.com: Are you willing to bet against three of the wealthiest men in the entire world? Jacob Rothschild recently bet approximately 200 million dollars that the euro will go down. Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson made somewhere around 20 billion dollars betting against the U.S. housing market during the last financial crisis, and now he has made huge bets that the euro will go down and that the price of gold will go up. And as I wrote about in my last article, George Soros put approximately 130 million more dollars into gold last quarter. So will the euro plummet like a rock? Will the price of gold absolutely soar? Well, if a massive financial disaster does occur both of those two things are likely to happen. The European economy is becoming more unstable with each passing day, and investors all over the globe are looking for safe places to put their money. The mainstream media keeps telling us that everything is going to be okay, but the global elite are sending us a much, much different message by their actions. Certainly Rothschild, Paulson and Soros know about things happening in the financial world that the rest of us don't. The fact that they are all behaving in a consistent manner right now should be alarming for all of us. Keep on reading @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com |
Aug 21st – Market action continues to be constructive. Bulls have a firm grip and are not loosening it for now.
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