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Sunday, August 19, 2012

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An Options Play On SPDR Gold Shares GLD

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 10:33 AM PDT

By John Mylant:

I am looking at the gold ETF (GLD). I have done some research and I do not believe in the short run gold will be going up in price. From a long-term perspective it is in a consolidating phase that should eventually turn it bullish. Its long-term climb up is not solely dependent upon stimulus money. The unsettling realities of massive debt in much of the industrial world and the continued currency devaluation will play a bigger roll in gold's climb in value. But for now, I am looking at a short-term income play on GLD. Here are two simple reasons my directional play would be bearish.

Gold movement & the U.S. dollar

Generally speaking, gold will always move in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. As long as the dollar is the currency of influence, a negative correlation will exist between the two. Of course sometimes they may


Complete Story »

INTER-MARKET RELATIONSHIPS THAT ARE DRIVING THE STOCK MARKET AND COMMODITIES

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 08:21 AM PDT

This will be a quick post today illustrating what I expect over the next 2 years, and the inter-market relationship between the currency markets, CRB and stocks.

Pay particular attention to the inverse relationship between the dollar index and the CRB; notice how the CRB almost immediately began moving down into its three year cycle low once the dollar formed it's three year cycle bottom in May 2011.


Stocks are driven by not only the dollar but to some extent by commodity prices. When commodities start to surge too high they act as a drag on the economy and consequently the stock market begins to stagnate. When commodities are falling, as they have been for the last year, it tends to act as a mild tailwind for the stock market and this explains why stocks have continued to rise for most of this year despite the dollar moving generally upwards since February.


I think I have mentioned before that virtually every recession since World War II has been preceded by a spike in oil prices of 80% - 100% over a short period of time (usually a year or less).


The surge from $50 a barrel to $100 in 2007 was the straw that broke the camel's back and tipped the economy over into recession, which began in November '07. A further spike to $147 a barrel the next summer guaranteed that the recession would be the worst since the Great Depression, especially considering that the real estate market and debt bubble was imploding at the same time.


Now that the CRB has formed its three year cycle low the dollar index should be at or pretty close to a final top, which should then be followed by a move down into its next three year cycle low sometime in 2014.


If the inter-market relationships continue to hold up, and I don't see why they wouldn't, then we should see commodity prices moving generally north for the next couple of years until the dollar forms its 3 year cycle low in mid-to-late 2014. At some point along the way rising commodity prices are going to begin pressuring the economy, just as they did in 2007 and 2008, and also in 2011 as the CRB surged up into its final three year cycle top.


My current guess is that we will see the stock market start to stagnate in 2013 forming a much extended rounded topping pattern. By late 2013 the stock market should be clearly in a new bear market that will begin to accelerate to the downside as commodities spike into their final top as the dollar bottoms in 2014.

At that point I expect to see a severe deflationary event as the stock market and commodities collapse similar to what happened in the fall of 2008 and early 2009. This collapse and deflationary event should be accompanied by the dollar rallying out of its next three year cycle low in 2014
.

Most bear markets tend to last between 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years so we can probably expect a final bottom in early to mid 2015.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

4 Cash Loaded Basic Materials Stocks Generating High Profits

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 06:46 AM PDT

By ZetaKap:

When a company has both a significant level of liquidity and profits, it is worth noting. Often this can be a sign that a company is operating effectively and has the capacity to achieve further growth. After all, liquidity provides a company with the means to make strategic moves like acquisitions or open new markets. We looked for stocks in the mid cap sector that have ample cash reserves while generating strong profits. Take a look at the list below to see if our findings inspire you to do more research.

The Operating Profit Margin is a profitability ratio that measures the effectiveness of the company's operating efficiency. This metric allows investors to see how much profit is left after all variable costs are covered. If the company's margin is increasing over time this means that it's earning more per dollar of sales. Finding trends in the Operating Profit Margin


Complete Story »

Top 5 Insider Sells Filed On August 17

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 06:09 AM PDT

By Markus Aarnio:

A study titled "Predictive and Statistical Properties of Insider Trading" by James H. Lorie and Victor Niederhoffer reached the following conclusion:

This study indicates that proper and prompt analysis of data on insider trading can be profitable, although almost all previously published studies have reached the contrary conclusion. When insiders accumulate a stock intensively, the stock can be expected to outperform the market during the next six months. Insiders tend to buy more often than usual before large price increases and to sell more than usual before price decreases.

Based on the findings of this encouraging insider trading study I screened for companies where at least one insider made a sell transaction filed on August 17. I chose the top 5 companies with insider selling in dollar terms. Here is a look at the five stocks:

1. Kinder Morgan (KMI) is the largest midstream and the fourth largest energy company


Complete Story »

All that is needed…

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 04:48 AM PDT

All that is needed…
Bill Holter


billionaire.gif
…is just one Billionaire to place an order on the COMEX for Silver and POOF…it's all over! Seriously, this is true, just a single $1 Billion order would basically wipe out ALL deliverable Silver held at the COMEX. Not only that, I suspect that if a huge order came through (which is discouraged by position limits on the long side), much of the supposed "deliverable" Silver would change categories or even evaporate prior to being delivered. Think about how small $1 Billion is. It is equal to roughly a mere 8 hours time of which our government borrows 24/7. It is like going to bed and getting a good 8 hours of sleep…wake up and we borrowed another $1 Billion. Only in this case, once this market gets broken and trust me, $1 Billion will do it, we will go to sleep, wake up, and no Silver will be available.

Years ago, Warren "Gold ain't money, it's barbaric" Buffett held 129 million ounces of Silver (equal to nearly $4 Billion at today's price). It was speculated at the time when he sold it that he had his arm twisted to do so, maybe, maybe not. I bring this up because there are now no hordes of this size available, ANYWHERE and the "threshold" to breaking this market goes down every single day. Have you ever wondered what will happen if (when) this market does get broken? You might at first think "who cares?" but that would be shortsighted. I say shortsighted because any action in Silver will surely spill over into the Gold arena and Gold exploding higher is definitely not a "confidence" builder, on the contrary, fear is THE greatest financial emotion of them all.

Putting the Gold market aside, what really will happen when the COMEX Silver pit gets broken and cannot make delivery? Obviously, the price of Silver will rise. It will rise because the shorts will get scared and buy, the specs will get greedy and buy BUT, the real catapult will be sellers, or lack of! When sellers whether they be paper or physical get a whiff of this, they will pull their offers and create an upside air pocket where anyone who wants in…will have to do so at much higher prices. The physical sellers will probably go into TOTAL hibernation for a spell where they will not accept any amount of fiat paper until they can "trust" what it is that they are getting in return of sale. A busted Silver market will spill over into everything. This one "little white lie" will expose many and far larger lies up to and including the fact that the entire system is a Ponzi scheme. It is really this simple, Silver CANNOT be allowed to be "outed" because it will expose everything else so don't hold your breath for a miraculous CFTC ruling, failure to deliver WILL be the catalyst.

This is all basic stuff but it is important to understand just how little money is now necessary to detonate the global financial system. It could be a Chinese or Russian billionaire, it could be a Carlos Slim or someone else that has mining investments, it could be a coalition or whatever. I will leave you with this thought, "it WILL be done for the simple reason that it CAN be done" and it can now be done with very little money and very little effort. We, the U.S., have made many many enemies over the years, I cannot believe how stupid it is to have left exposed such an obvious and easily attacked Achilles heal to the entire system. …and if a foreign sovereign government were to enter the Silver market? $1 Billion? $5 Billion? Are you kidding me?



blog.milesfranklin.com

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat...llionaire.html
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Why Are Gold, Silver Mining Share Prices Not Moving Higher?

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 04:47 AM PDT

Why Are Gold, Silver Mining Share Prices Not Moving Higher?
Julian Phillips


mine.jpg
"The prime reason that institutional investors and wealthy retail investors are buying gold and silver mining shares now is that these will produce a greater total return than the gold and silver prices themselves."

This is perhaps one of the most asked questions among gold investors today. But the answer is not a simple one. It goes to the basics of which people invest in gold in the first place and what form of gold they buy. In this, the first of a two part article, we delve deeper into this subject.

Who Buys Gold?

U.S. Demand

It's so easy to become short-sighted in the different facets of the gold market. In the U.S., it's easy to believe that gold price rises seen since 2005 are due to either the economic outlook of the U.S. or the strength and weakness of the USD. There's no doubt that in the short term, gold price movements are driven by traders focused on the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro. But what gold are they buying?

The sophisticated trading operations and tools available in the developed world are able to discount such price moves quickly and dramatically, seemingly providing such gold and silver price dominance. Looked at on a day-to-day basis, the evidence of such dominance is overwhelming. The volumes of gold bought and sold daily are enormous. But are they buying the sort of gold that moves the gold price?

Traders on COMEX buy and sell derivatives in the form of Options and Futures contracts. This is not physical gold. Indeed COMEX officials informed us that only 5% of the volumes traded involve an actual transfer of physical gold.

While the SPDR gold Exchange Traded Fund holds in HSBC vaults more than 1,500 tonnes, only a few tonnes, on average, move each week, reducing the price impact of these investors considerably.

Institutions that do buy gold, allocate an amount to be invested in the gold sector. This amount has as its underlying motive to create profits from these investments. Under the usual risk-reward concept, with the objective of maximum total return, institutions will spread this allocation to the different aspects of the gold market. At times they may feel that the bullion price will produce the most short-term profits, so invest directly in physical gold, perhaps counter-balancing these positions with futures and options which adding a portion of trading to the portfolio. Long-term positions may well be taken in gold mining company shares, provided the higher returns justify the higher risk – this includes the corporate risk and risk of higher costs of production cutting back potential profits. But it's normal to spread the risk of gold shares with a physical gold position. The net result is that institutions may well hold only a 30 to 50% position in physical gold [of the amount allocated to gold investments], with the intention of holding these for the long-term. The result is that when one adds the buying and selling of all the gold instruments together over time and weighs them against the volume of physical gold buying and selling over time, the weight of short-term trading in its various forms, heavily outweighs that of physical gold buying, perhaps 10 to 1. Surprisingly this makes U.S. physical gold activity a tiny proportion of total gold-related investment and trading activity. After all, to the U.S. investor making a dollar profit from their gold dealings and not holding it for the long term, is the thrust of their activity. Gold bullion holding for the long-term is not their primary interest.

Overall, the U.S. accounts for +7% of world gold physical demand only, primarily for the jewelry sector. If it was not for the sophistication of its markets and measured on physical demand alone, the U.S. demand is insufficient to dominate the gold price. But the sheer volume of activity in the short-term does dominate the short-term price, but not the long-term price.


Of this total demand for gold in its various forms, what portion goes into gold mining shares? It is very small.

After the arrival of gold Exchange Traded Funds in the market even this amount was reduced considerably because, for the first time institutions could take positions that would affect the gold price itself as the buying of gold ETF shares caused a purchase of physical gold to happen. Gold share buying had zero affect on the gold price itself.

So the amount usually spent on gold shares dropped dramatically!

Emerging World Demand

Between 65% and 75% of the world's demand for physical gold comes from the emerging world. One hundred per cent of this is for long-term financial security. Even recycled gold is sold with the intention of rebuying again either when the price is lower or when investors are able to afford to buy again. This applies both in China and in India. The investment attitude behind such buying is for the purpose of financial security.

It is both rare and insignificant for investors in the emerging world to buy gold mining shares or Futures & Options or the shares of gold Exchange Traded Funds. The emerging world sees these as speculative instruments related to gold and not gold itself. They are not interested in investing outside their world, usually.

The profit motive is virtually absent from these investors' minds. But when the money volumes spent by these investors is set against the money volumes of the developed world investors in gold instruments, it is tiny because they buy usually once for the long-term and rarely sell. But their demand is insistent and persistent over time. This is why their impact on the long-term gold price is so significant.

However, as to the shares of gold mining companies, the bulk of investors in the emerging world have little, to zero, money invested in them.

Central Bank Demand

The pattern of behavior of central banks is similar to that of the emerging world. They buy only gold bullion for the long-term and are not particularly interested in the price of gold itself only the number of ounces they hold. They have zero interest in buying the shares of gold mining companies.

Silver Prices and silver mining company shares

We've followed the silver price for some considerable time and seen that the silver price moves with the gold price, more on the rise and more on the fall, but they move together because they're treated as a long-term investment that counters the falling value of currencies as a whole. We have no reason to see why this well established pattern change. Therefore it's reasonable that we should talk about gold and silver shares together, in the context of this article.

Who Buys Gold and Silver Shares?

Apart from a small number of cosmopolitan investors in the emerging world, only investors in the sophisticated markets of the developed world invest in the shares of gold and silver mining companies. It's quite sobering to realize this.

In the emerging world, the reasons for buying relate as much to ownership of those companies as to sound long-term investments. It is not part of their investment culture to try to profit from the gearing gold and silver mining company shares can offer.

The culture of short-term trading in the emerging world is related more to gambling than to wise investment trading and has not taken hold to nearly the same extent as it has in the developed world.

Institutional investors and the wealthy retail investor are among the buyers of gold and silver mining company shares. The criteria they use is only partially related to the price of gold and silver. The prime reason for them buying gold & silver mining shares now is that these will produce a greater total return than the gold and silver prices themselves. Why else would they take on the added risk that comes with these corporate investments?

Equities Have Added Risks & Costs

It is easy to assume that gold and silver mining shares will move with the gold and silver prices, but they haven't. They have underperformed precious metal prices by a wide margin over the last few years.

We will go into more detail on why this is so in the next article we produce on the subject, but suffice it to say now that mining company shares come with a lot more baggage than just prices that dominate the performance of the companies.

Julian Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Gold Forecaster / SilverForecaster

Legal Notice / Disclaimer
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina only and are subject to change without notice. Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina assume no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, we assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information, provided within this Report.



ww2.dowtheoryletters.com

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat...ingshares.html
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China in talks to buy 74% stake in African Barrick Gold

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 04:23 AM PDT

from guardian.co.uk:

China is in talks to buy a 74% stake in the African arm of Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner, amid soaring demand for jewellery from an increasingly wealthy middle class. However, the $2bn (£1.3bn) move is likely to revive concerns about the country's expansionist role on the continent.

Shares in the London-listed African miner soared 13% after China National Gold said it was in a "preliminary stage of contact and discussion" with the company, which has mines concentrated in Tanzania.

Rapid industrialisation has led to an enormous demand for grain, oil and precious metals in China, triggering a surge in acquisitions throughout Africa, a continent rich in natural resources.

Keep on reading @ guardian.co.uk

Nancy Grace Points the Way to Gold Confiscation?

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 04:14 AM PDT

from thedailybell.com:

We received a YouTube video address from a friend of the Daily Bell, and the power elite meme popped right out.

At the end of this article, I'll provide a video address, so you can see for yourself how Nancy Grace positions this particular analysis of "justice."

We've written in the past about how gold and silver confiscation might take place if the price becomes intolerably high from the point of view of the power elites that want to remain in control of central banking and fiat money.

The chances are slim but the possibility remains. When we hear outrageous rhetoric like this, I think we should point it out.

Keep on reading @ thedailybell.com

Nowhere To Run: The Correlation Bubble

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 03:26 AM PDT

ByVeritas Research:

Fundamental analysis of "buy and hold" companies is a quaint, Warren Buffetish notion that probably works in the long term. But as Keynes said, in the long term we're all dead. The big risk in today's über-correlated markets is systemic shock. One can practice due diligence on a company and buy at a reasonable valuation, but if global markets collapse the next day and don't recover for years, one has paid a lot in opportunity cost. In other words, tail risk is not reflected in fundamental analysis.

Fundamental analysis is valuable so long as the basic fabric of capital markets remains intact. In an insane world (where U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds are considered "risk-free," of infinite rehypothecation, where MF Global's John Corzine walks off with $200M segregated assets, of the London Whale, LIBOR, Goldman's muppets, regulatory capture of SEC and Fed, U.S. / China animosity and the dollar's loss


Complete Story »

Buy Gold Like The Central Banks Do

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 03:02 AM PDT

By Arie Goren:

In my previous post here, I recommended buying gold. On that occasion I explained that one main reason for expecting a long term rise in the price of gold is the behavior of the Central Banks. Ever since 2010 the Central Banks have become net buyers of gold after many years of only net selling. On August 16, 2012, the World Gold Council published its report, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2012, where it was clearly expressed that this trend is even expanding. According to the report:

The second quarter was another period of significant purchasing by official sector institutions, with demand accounting to 157.5 tonnes. This was a record quarter for central bank buying since the sector began recording net purchases in Q2 2009 and was more than double the 66.2 tonnes of purchases made in the same period of 2011. Purchases in the first half of the year totaled


Complete Story »

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Posted: 19 Aug 2012 02:11 AM PDT

By John Mylant:

The biggest influence on gold prices right now is the monetary easing policy that the market has been anticipating in the U.S. and/or Europe. If the central banks were to initiate another monetary stimulus designed to encourage growth in the economy, gold would be one of those benefactors. This would increase the pressure on long term interest rates, possibly fuel inflation fears, and weigh in the value of the dollar. All these things fuel gold prices. LGT Capital Management analyst Bayram Dincer shared this view on what central banks will do:

My general view is that for the time being major central banks will let go of the mandate of price stability in favor of spurring growth figures. This means that the central banks in an explicit or implicit inflation targeting regime will try to anchor inflation expectations around 3.0 percent," he said. "This change would be gold price supportive.


Complete Story »

Central Bank Stimulus Hopes “Give Boost to Gold”, Merkel says ECB’s Draghi “Completely in Line” with Euro Politicians

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 10:59 PM PDT

Central Bank Stimulus Hopes "Give Boost to Gold", Merkel says ECB's Draghi "Completely in Line" with Euro Politicians

SPOT MARKET prices for buying gold bullion traded just below $1620 per ounce during Friday morning's London session, very slightly below where they ended last week, while stock markets also gained, amid renewed speculation over central bank stimulus measures.

Silver bullion traded around $28.30 per ounce, slightly up on where it started the week, while other commodities were also broadly flat.

The volume of gold bullion held by the world's biggest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), rose to a one-month high of 1263.6 tonnes Thursday, a day which saw gold continue its recovery from Wednesday's lows.

"Hopes that central banks will launch more bullion-friendly stimulus measures boosted the yellow metal [on Thursday]," says a note from Swiss refiner MKS.

On the currency markets, the Euro managed to hold its ground against the Dollar this morning after rallying above $1.23 yesterday, following comments from German chancellor Angela Merkel that appeared to endorse the position of European Central bank chief Mario Draghi.

Last month, Draghi said that the ECB would do "whatever it takes to preserve the Euro", comments that were followed immediately by rallies in stocks, precious metals and the single currency itself.

"What he said is something we repeated time and again since the beginning of the Greek difficulties more than two years ago," Merkel said yesterday, speaking during a visit to Canada.

"We feel committed to do everything we can to maintain the common currency. The European Central Bank, although it is of course independent, is completely in line with what we have said all along."

Reporters asked Merkel her thoughts on the possibility that the ECB might start buying government bonds again, as it did in the case of Spain and Italy last summer.

"[Recent ECB actions] have made it clear that the European Central Bank is counting on political action in the form of conditionality as the precondition for a positive development of the Euro."

"It is becoming clear," says a note from Citigroup, "that the ECB purchases [of a country's sovereign bonds] have to be conditional on the implementation of austerity and structural reform measures in that country."

Spanish lender Bankia will soon begin receiving funds as part of an agreed €19 billion rescue, a spokeswoman for Spain's economy ministry said Thursday. Spain agreed a credit line of up to €100 billion in June to fund the restructuring of its banking sector.

The European Commission meantime will propose next month that the ECB meantime be given supervisory powers over all major European banks, German newspaper Handelsblatt reports, citing sources at the Commission.

By Friday lunchtime in London, the gold price in Euros looked set to end the week down around 0.8% following the Euro's gains against the Dollar.

"The market is still moving on changing expectations of central bank actions," says Nick Trevethan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

"[Gold in Dollars] is so far unwilling to push prices out of the $1590 to $1630 range."

Over in the US, the benefits of another round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve are "very dubious", Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser said this week.

"There are diminishing returns to these actions," Plosser said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Wednesday.

"The evidence is not strong that somehow more [QE will] help the unemployment rate move faster to where we'd like it to be. I don't see that there is much benefit."

By contrast, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president John Williams said last Friday the US economy is "at the point where it is definitely tilting toward [the Fed] taking further action".

The Philadelphia Fed is not due to become voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which decides US monetary policy, until 2014, with San Francisco becoming a voting member the following year.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao meantime said Thursday that China has "the conditions and capabilities" to meet economic and social development targets this year, despite recent data suggesting China's economy is slowing down.

"We continue to think that more policy support will be announced soon," says Qinwei Wang, economist at London-based consultancy Capital Economics and a former employee of China's central bank.

"A further cut to the required reserve ratio, and…more infrastructure projects proposed by local governments will be given the go-ahead."

"For the time being, major central banks will let go of the mandate of price stability in favor of spurring growth figures," reckons Bayram Dincer, analyst at LGT Capital Management.

In South Africa meantime, more than 30 people have died after police opened fire on striking mineworkers at the Marikana platinum mine Thursday, which is operated by London-listed Lonmin.

Gold's premium over platinum prices, which hit an all-time high earlier this week, has narrowed after platinum rose by more than 3% since the start of Thursday's trading to hit $1450 per ounce by this morning.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Sunshine Profits: Can We Expect a Short-Term Rally in the Euro Index and Temporary Strength in Precious Metals?

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 08:31 PM PDT


Based on the August 17th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.

The summer dog days are upon us leaving investors cooling off in the shade waiting for a refreshing breeze of market-moving news. They are anticipating something important that will energize the gold price for an upward move, perhaps another round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve that could possibly be announced at the Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual gathering in late-August, or at the next meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee in September. Several U.S. economic reports released Wednesday failed to significantly impact the precious metals.

At least two heavyweight investors are not waiting on the sidelines to see what the Fed will do. Doing some bargain shopping, billionaire investors George Soros and John Paulson increased their holdings in the gold-backed exchange traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust. According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing for second-quarter, Soros Fund Management more than doubled its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust to 884,400 shares as of June 30, compared with three months earlier. Paulson & Co. increased its holdings by 26 percent to 21.8 million shares.

However, hedge funds have cut their net-long position by 66 percent from a record in August 2011. So who is the "smart money" in this case? We'll find out soon enough.

To see how precious metals are expected to fare in the August heat we now turn to the technical portion with the analysis of the Euro Index – after all the latter often moves similarly to gold. We will start with the long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

We begin this today's essay with a look at the long-term Euro Index chart. This week we've seen a move higher which appears to have resulted in a breakout above the declining short-term resistance line. "Appears" because the week is not over yet, but unless the Euro Index declines below the 122 level, the short-term breakout will be a fact. This is not a major bullish factor medium term, but we could see further strength here in the short run.

A major medium-term resistance line is close at hand and could very well stop the recent move to the upside. Both the black and red lines in our chart could serve as resistance (the neck of the previously completed head-and-shoulders pattern).

Now, let's see if there's been any reaction of the USD Index on the Euro Index behavior.

In the medium-term USD Index chart (if you are reading this essay on sunshineprofits.com, you may click the above chart to enlarge), we do not see any invalidation of the bullish trend at all. The breakout above the long-term resistance line continues to be verified, and the medium-term direction appears to be to the upside.

If the short-term rally in euro is indeed seen, then the dollar could move lower and retest one or both of its long-term support lines.

To see how precious metals would probably react, should a short-term rally in the Euro Index and a short-term decline in the USD Index occur, let's take a look at our own tool intended for measuring intermarket correlations.

The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. The traditional correlations are in place at this time, meaning that gold and precious metals are negatively correlated with the USD Index and positively correlated with the general stock market.

Consequently, the change in the short-term situation on the USD Index makes the short-term case for metals a bit more bullish than not. The influence remains negative in the medium term, though.

Summing up, the medium-term outlook for the dollar is unchanged and remains bullish. The short-term picture has become mixed and a bit bearish based on this week's Euro Index move. This could in turn translate into short-term improvement in gold and other precious metals. However, we advise caution, as the medium-term uptrend in the USD is still in place. More in-depth analysis of the currency market as well as the critical situation in the general stock market and their possible influence on precious metals are discussed in the full version of this article.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


Weekend Update

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 05:27 PM PDT

Daily Newsletter
-
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Argonaut Gold Corvus Gold Huldra Silver Inc.

In this issue…

- Podcasts

- Sponsor News

- Bonds

- Premium Snippet

Podcasts…

There are three things for you to listen to or watch:

We were interviewed by Alt-Investors. We discussed Precious Metals and Bonds.

We interviewed Greg Weldon who provided another stellar update on the macro-economic situations in the US and Europe. He also has some actionable views on Gold & Silver.

Also, the following video is an excerpt of Greg Weldon's work from his Metal Monitor service. He's been kind enough to allow me to pass it along to my readers and viewers.
 
Greg offers a free, one-time, 30-day trial of three different research publications:
1)  Weldon's Money Monitor (global macro);  2) The Metal Monitor (precious metals markets) and 3) The ETF Playbook.

Click here to sign up for a free trial and gain immediate access
to Greg's latest Macro-Market Metal Monitor which covers Silver, Global Central Bank Balance Sheets, and this week's release of the World Gold Council's 2Q Report on Gold Demand.

For investment professionals and those who want to keep a leg up on macro analysis, I highly recommend Greg's work. I think he is the top macro analyst among those who focus on Gold and Silver. John Mauldin's letter goes out to one million readers each week and he frequently includes samples of Greg's work.

Sponsor News…

Argonaut Gold reported record numbers across the board.

Bonds…

Here is one chart from our update just sent out to premium subscribers. It shows the 10-year Bond price having made a slight double top. It has more room to decline which means there could be more room for precious metals to rebound.


Premium Snippet…

Today we sent out an update which covers the usual including some technical thoughts on our current favorite positions. We also provide commentary on how and when to buy into these companies and we use two current holdings as a case study. Professionals scale into positions with multiple buys. They don't put 100% in at one moment. They also do not chase strength. Two of our five favorite stocks have risen substantially in the past six weeks. Yet we know its not wise to chase strength. We must exhibit patience and wait for a better entry point.

Our previous commentary on our seven rules for investing and speculating in this sector was well received by premium subscribers. I hope the current thoughts generate a similar response.

Subscribe to our Premium Service

Wishing you health and profits,

Jordan

Disclaimer: Sponsor Companies are only sponsor companies of TheDailyGold.com. Do not construe sponsorship with a recommendation. We are not a registered investment advisor and information and analysis provided is for informational and educational purposes only.  
Argonaut Gold Corvus Gold Huldra Silver Inc.


Vintage Sterling Indian seed locket.

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 03:43 PM PDT

I was told they were seed lockets from India. Got both for $10 , they weigh about 30gs together. Anyone got any info on these? And yes those seeds came with it. Writing on back. Even the screw is sterling, nice pieces definitely ain't junk.



Big Changes Ahead: Gold Just Became Money Again

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 01:59 PM PDT

CME Clearing Europe will take gold as collateral

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 01:43 PM PDT

Gata

First Majestic Recognized as a Leader in Corporate Social Responsibility

Posted: 18 Aug 2012 01:30 PM PDT

FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (AG: NYSE; FR: TSX) (the "Company" or "First Majestic") is pleased to announce that the Company has been recognized with three awards reflecting the Company's continuous efforts with respect to our corporate citizenship practices as a socially responsible company.

Ramon Davila, Chief Operating Officer, has been honoured with the "Miner of the Year" award, presented by Mexican Mining Engineers, Metallurgists and Geologists Association; the San Martin Silver Mine was awarded the "Clean Industry Certificate" regarding its environmental activities, and First Majestic received the "Socially Responsible Business Distinction Award", presented by Centro Mexicano para la Filantropia (CEMEFI) for the fourth consecutive year.

These accomplishments continue to represent the key building blocks of First Majestic's vision toward social responsibility. Through dedication and ongoing commitment to environmental sustainability and social responsibility within the Company's operations and its projects, the Company intends to continue to elevate its reputation for outstanding corporate citizenship.

Ramon Davila Awarded "Miner of the Year"

First Majestic is pleased to announce that on July 7, 2012, Ramon Davila, Chief Operating Officer, was recognized with the distinguished "Miner of the Year" award. This award was given by the Mining Metallurgists and Geologists Engineers Association of Mexico during the national celebration of Miner's Day in Guanajuato, Mexico. Mr. Davila is a member of theMexican Mining Engineers, Metallurgists and Geologist Association, and is a member of the Board of the Mexican Chamber of Mines, and is also currently the President of the Education Committee. Mr. Davila received this distinguished award for his outstanding professional contributions and achievements in the Mexican mining industry.

Mr. Davila comments, "It is an honor to be recognized in this ceremony; however, I feel that the award is in recognition of the hard work of all the members of the First Majestic team. In the end, it all happens because of the efforts of our people. The successes of First Majestic are a team effort."

San Martin Awarded "Clean Industry Certificate"

On July 3, 2012, the Mexican Environmental Authority PROFEPA (Procuradoria Federal Proteccion al Ambiente) awarded the Clean Industry Certificate to one of the Company's wholly owned subsidiaries, Minera El Pilon, S.A. de C.V. regarding its environmental activities at the San Martin Silver Mine. This Certificate is a significant milestone for the Company and was granted after 36 months of voluntary environmental audit work. This Certificate recognizes the following activities undertaken by First Majestic:

  • Control of all machinery exhaust and dust emissions
  • Control of on-site water use to the highest environmental standards
  • Remediation of soil where necessary
  • Effective handling and disposal of bi-product residues
  • Construction of containment walls and rain water drainage systems at the mill site
  • Upgrade of leaching tanks and thickeners and general improvement of the mill equipment.
  • Reclamation and reinforcement of the old tailings dam and construction of a new tailings area.

Due to First Majestic's dedication to excellence in both sustainability and operations, the Company has made significant progress in environmental activities at San Martin. Continuing with this campaign of upgrading to cleaner and more efficient systems, the Company is installing two new large leaching tanks currently under construction at San Martin, replacing some of the older and smaller tanks. In addition, the Company plans to install new clarification filters and tailings filters to recirculate water back through the process.

First Majestic Earns Socially Responsible Business Distinction Award for 4th Consecutive Year

First Majestic's social and environmental efforts in the communities in which it works have earned the Company the "2011 Socially Responsible Business Distinction" award (2011 Distintivo Empresa Socialmente Responsable) for the fourth consecutive year. Presented by Centro Mexicano para la Filantropia (CEMEFI), this annual award recognizes First Majestic for its corporate ethics and good governance practices and also recognizes the Company for its dedication to the social and environmental landscapes in which it operates. The award affirms First Majestic's position as a leader in corporate social responsibility, and was achieved through demonstrating continued transparency, environmental stewardship, and sustainability within its operations and projects in Mexico.

Corporate social responsibility and environmental sustainability are the foundation on which First Majestic prides itself. The Company shows an appreciation for each of the communities in which it operates by promoting sustainability, education and well-being.

First Majestic is a producing silver company focused on silver production in México and is aggressively pursuing its business plan of becoming a senior silver producer through the development of its existing mineral property assets and the pursuit through acquisition of additional mineral assets which contribute to the Company achieving its aggressive corporate growth objectives.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION contact info@firstmajestic.com, visit our website at www.firstmajestic.com or call our toll free number 1.866.529.2807.

FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP.

"signed"

Keith Neumeyer, President & CEO

SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION


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