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- Why Dollar Tree Is Worth More Than $60 Per Share
- Precipitate to Acquire Dominican Republic Concession Bordering GoldQuest
- Ryan: Boon Or Bane For U.S. Dollar?
- Dendreon: Correctable Limitations On Provenge Sales Are Identifiable
- Soros and Paulson on Track as Gold May Top $2,000
- Massive Imports Of Gold Into China / NY Empire Index Goes Negative For First Time Since Oct
- $12,000 Gold, Paulson, Soros & A Coming Mania In The Shares
- The Hoarding Continues: China Has Imported More Gold In Six Months Than Portugal’s Entire Gold Reserve
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Markets In Monetary Driven Stasis
- Wealth of Nations and the Wizards of Oz
- 41 Years After the Death of the Gold Standard: A Look at “How We Ended Up in This Economic Purgatory”
- Gold Investment Demand and India, China Demand Down; Central Bank Demand Doubles
- Get Ready, Gold Bears To Be Crushed & Silver To Catch Fire
- Global Gold Demand Down in Q2 but Central Bank Buying Hits Record
- 41 Years After The Death Of The Gold Standard, A Look At “How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory”
- Gold Prices, Demand Seen to Increase in Second Half
- Optimize Your Gold Portfolio with Ron Struthers Tips
- Gold Investment &India, China Demand Down
- Gold Runs Out in Lisbon as Price Drop Compounds Money Misery
- Central Banks Add Record Volumes of Gold in Q2
- 41 Years After the Death of the Gold Standard: A Look at "How We Ended Up in This Economic Purgatory"
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 16 2012
- Links 8/16/12
- Global Macro Notes: Falling Bonds, Rising Transports, Vulnerable Aussie
- How to Beat Vulture Debt Collectors
- One Hour with Webster Tarpley: Collapse Coming
| Why Dollar Tree Is Worth More Than $60 Per Share Posted: 16 Aug 2012 12:09 PM PDT By Valuentum: As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Dollar Tree's (DLTR) case, we think the firm is fairly valued at $62 per share, slightly higher than where it is currently trading. For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index, which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. In the spirit of transparency, we show how the performance of our VBI has stacked up per underlying score: If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative Complete Story » | |
| Precipitate to Acquire Dominican Republic Concession Bordering GoldQuest Posted: 16 Aug 2012 11:42 AM PDT VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Aug 16, 2012 (Marketwire via COMTEX) -- Precipitate Gold Corp. (TSX:PRG.V) announces that it has entered into a Letter Agreement dated August 16, 2012 with the shareholders of a private BC registered company ("BC Corp") to purchase the company. BC Corp holds a 100% interest in the rights to acquire two mineral Concessions in the Dominican Republic that are currently under application. The larger concession, Juan de Herrera ("JDH"), totals 15,020 hectares in area and directly adjoins the Tireo belt holdings of GoldQuest Mining Corp (TSX:GQC.V) on their southwest and south sides. The second concession, Higos Blancos is 3,231 hectares and covers part of a large exposure of Tireo formation rocks to the east of the GoldQuest trend. A concession map is available on Precipitate's website. Commenting on the news Michael Moore VP, Exploration states, "It's very impressive how many new discoveries have come out of the Tireo belt in such a short time. The area was clearly subject to a significant regional scale mineralizing event that has left the Trend with a gold endowment that is impressive in terms of both broad areal extent and intensity. There is very little high quality land available in the Tireo belt and we're pleased and excited to be able to acquire over 18,000 hectares of highly prospective concessions." The "Tireo Trend"
The Romero Discovery The Tireo Trend recently gained major prominence when GoldQuest announced its latest discovery, Romero, north of Escandalosa on the las Tres Palmas concession. Three holes have been reported so far from Romero including the following notable intercepts (after GoldQuest website August 15, 2012): Hole 90: 231 metres grading 2.41 g/t Gold and 0.44% Copper Hole 92: 159 metres grading 4.45 g/t Gold and 0.95% Copper Hole 93: 258 metres grading 4.50 g/t Gold and 1.30% Copper Mineralization at Romero, like Escandalosa, is hosted by Upper Tireo dacites. GoldQuest is continuing its drill program with two rigs and plans to add a third rig shortly. The Romero discovery remains open in all directions. Other Discoveries within GoldQuest's Tireo holdings (After GoldQuest website August 15, 2012) Regional Tireo Trend Discoveries In addition to the GoldQuest discoveries recent work by Unigold Inc. has led to several discoveries on its Neita project located to the northwest of GoldQuest within similar geology. Unigold is drilling at Neita in advance of preparation of a maiden 43-101 compliant resource calculation for the Candelones zone. Further to the northwest on the Haitian side of the border JV partners Eurasian Minerals and Newmont are drilling at the Savane La Place prospect on their La Miel project. La Miel is described as epithermal mineralization occurring in the same Tireo rock sequence where previous trenching has returned up to 243 metres grading 1.71 g/t gold (After Eurasian Minerals website August 15, 2012). However, it should be noted that there is no certainty that future exploration will result in discovery of mineral deposits similar to the foregoing descriptions, or in any mineral deposits. BC Corp Agreement Precipitate can earn a 100% interest in BC Corp by meeting the agreement terms which include cash payments totaling $450,000, issuance of an aggregate of 3 million common shares and the completion of $1.0 million in aggregate exploration expenditures. A $60,000 cash payment, as part of the total payments, is due upon execution of a formal agreement and with all other obligations due up to three years after the anniversary date of the final concession being fully granted by the Dominican Republic authorities. A 3% NSR is payable to the BC Corp shareholders, 1.5% of which can be purchased by Precipitate for $2.0 million.Precipitate's management continues to review multiple acquisition opportunities in the Dominican Republic and elsewhere seeking out other projects that can enhance shareholder value. Michael Moore, VP Exploration of the Company and Qualified Person for purposes of National Instrument 43-101 has reviewed the technical information in this news release. On Behalf of the Board of Directors For further information contact: This press release may contain "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein are forward looking information. Generally, forward-looking information may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "proposed", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words and phrases, or by the use of words or phrases which state that certain actions, events or results may, could, would, or might occur or be achieved. This forward-looking information reflects Precipitate Gold Corp.'s ("Precipitate" or the "Company") current beliefs and is based on information currently available to Company and on assumptions it believes are reasonable. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Precipitate to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Such risks and other factors may include, but are not limited to: the exploration concessions may not be granted on terms acceptable to the Company, or at all; general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the concessions acquired by the Company may not have attributes similar to those of surrounding properties; delay or failure to receive governmental or regulatory approvals; changes in legislation, including environmental legislation affecting mining; timing and availability of external financing on acceptable terms; conclusions of economic evaluations; and lack of qualified, skilled labor or loss of key individuals. Although Precipitate has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Precipitate does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except in accordance with applicable securities laws. To view the map accompanying this press release please click on the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/PRGMap816.pdf
Disclosure: Precipitate Gold is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI). Members of the GGR team may hold long positions in PRG.V. The editor of GGR participated in a private placement for Precipitate Gold and holds a long position at the time of publication. | |
| Ryan: Boon Or Bane For U.S. Dollar? Posted: 16 Aug 2012 11:30 AM PDT By Axel Merk: Good news: Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan may put the focus of the presidential campaign on the sustainability of the U.S. budget. Bad news: Ryan's plan delivers some tough medicine; if the European experience is any guide, "austerity" makes bad politics. What are the implications for the U.S. dollar?
The Ryan budget addresses a key Achilles heel of the U.S. budget: Medicare. Make no mistake about it: no matter who wins the election, Medicare as we know it won't be around for the next generation. Why? Because economists agree that the debt to GDP ratio would explode to unsustainable levels: there are not enough rich people in the U.S. to tax to "fix" the problem. The basic problem: the U.S. healthcare system (before and after the healthcare reform) defines entitlements, but essentially does not have a fixed budget. Not surprisingly, costs are out of control, as Complete Story » | |
| Dendreon: Correctable Limitations On Provenge Sales Are Identifiable Posted: 16 Aug 2012 11:05 AM PDT By McBride: The tepid sales data that is arising from quarterly sales reports is taking its toll on speculative investors in Dendreon (DNDN). With the news of 600 layoffs (many of the layoffs in administrative positions- both full time and contractors, not specifically mentioned as sales positions) and a prudent decision to close a NJ manufacturing facility, attempts to bring COGS down to less than 50% may impact their books as soon as 12 months, per John H. Johnson, current chairman, president and CEO. The original forecast made by Dr. Gold greatly overshot the runway, as he assumed $350-$400 million in sales per year, and seemingly ignored the entire concept of market penetration. In my prior article as contributor, I attempted to show why Gold's dream would never come true, from the office workflow standpoint- there is a learning curve that would make prescribing slow at the outset. That article and debate Complete Story » | |
| Soros and Paulson on Track as Gold May Top $2,000 Posted: 16 Aug 2012 10:04 AM PDT Juerg Kierner, chief investment officer for Swiss Asia Capital, says gold prices may rise above $2,000 an ounce.
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| Massive Imports Of Gold Into China / NY Empire Index Goes Negative For First Time Since Oct Posted: 16 Aug 2012 09:05 AM PDT
from harveyorgan.blogspot.ca: Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up today to the tune of $4.20 to $1603.70. Silver finished the session up 5 cents to $27.81 Today it was a lacklustre day with no real activity to report on. The only big news was the massive importing of gold into China last month. In the last 6 months they have imported 383 tonnes of gold. They have been selling treasuries and purchasing gold with the proceeds. Also for the first time since October, the NY manufacturing area saw a contraction in its index. Early in the session we saw this (if true this will be earth shattering): The Euro was hit due to the following rumour: Keep on reading @ harveyorgan.blogspot.ca | |
| $12,000 Gold, Paulson, Soros & A Coming Mania In The Shares Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:52 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about a coming move in gold to $12,000 and a mania in the gold shares. Leeb, who is Chairman of Leeb Capital Management, had this to say: "It's already been reported that John Paulson and George Soros have just increased their gold holdings. Paulson, in particular, is really betting the house on gold. I believe gold now comprises 44% of Paulson's fund. Soros, who also knows a thing or two about macro-economics, added a pretty big chunk to his gold holdings." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com | |
| Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:46 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: While the highly "sophisticated" traders that make up the gold market continue to buy or sell the precious metal based on whether the Fed will or will not do the NEW QE tomorrow (or just because, like Bruno Iskil, they have a massive balance sheet, and can create margin position out of thin air with impunity), China continues to do one thing. Buy. Because while earlier today we were wondering (rhetorically, of course) what China is doing with all that excess trade surplus if it is not recycling it back into Treasurys, now we once again find out that instead of purchasing US paper, Beijing continues to buy non-US gold, in the form of 68 tons in imports from Hong Kong in the month of June. The year to date total (6 months)? 383 tons. In other words, in half a year China, whose official total tally is still a massively underrepresented 1054 tons, has imported more gold than the official gold reserves of Portugal, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and so on, and whose YTD imports alone make it the 14th largest holder of gold in the world. Realistically, by now China, which hasn't provided an honest gold reserve holdings update to the IMF in years, most certainly has more gold than the IMF, and its 2814 tons, itself. Of course, the moment the PBOC does announce its official updated gold stash, a gold price in the mid-$1000 range will be a long gone memory. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com | |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Markets In Monetary Driven Stasis Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:43 AM PDT
from jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca: I believe that at some point the bullion dealers will abandon spot pricing which is based on a Net Present Valuation of the futures front month. But what would they use instead, the London fix? That is just as dodgy if not more. Let's see if Bart Chilton and the CFTC can do anything to restore confidence and transparency in the futures markets. I am not expecting much if anything from them. Keep on reading @ jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca | |
| Wealth of Nations and the Wizards of Oz Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:40 AM PDT
from acting-man.com: I recently learned that The Wizard of Oz was written as a satiric commentary on the financial crisis of 1893. I am not sure if Frank L. Baum did mean to write his book for that reason. However, the idea that there are people who believe they can lever the machinery of markets has not disappeared. Today, the curtain behind which these wizards used to stand is very transparent. Recently, a very renowned wizard held tenure at the Fed beginning with the crash year of 1987, departing just months before the collapse of the subprime bubble. The collapse was, however, not in just one single class of speculation, but rather an entire edifice of debt created over the last 100 years. In the history of boom and bust, he and his cohorts hold the not so glorious record for the greatest intervention the world has ever known. Keep on reading @ acting-man.com | |
| Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:36 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: Yesterday in Gold and Silver Well, the 9:00 a.m. BST sell-off in London proved to be the low of the day. The subsequent rally was weak…and then the price tailed off once again going into the New York open. The secondary low of the day came about ten minutes before the Comex began to trade…and the rally that followed came to an end at 9:40 a.m. Eastern time…and then traded sideways to down a hair going into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close in New York. The low of the day was a few dollars below $1,590 spot at 9:00 a.m. BST…and the New York high of $1,607.40 was at 9:40 a.m. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com | |
| Gold Investment Demand and India, China Demand Down; Central Bank Demand Doubles Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:35 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Today's AM fix was USD 1,603.50, EUR 1,306.74, and GBP 1,021.34 per ounce. Silver is trading at $27.91/oz, €22.81/oz and £17.85/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,401.00/oz, palladium at $574.40/oz and rhodium at $1,075/oz. Gold rose $4.50 or 0.28% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,604.10/oz. Silver edged off and recovered to a high of $27.99 and finished with a gain of 0.07%. Gold is floating in a tight range at $1,600/oz today and gold continues consolidating at this level. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com | |
| Get Ready, Gold Bears To Be Crushed & Silver To Catch Fire Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:33 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN, "… we have a combination of bullish indicators that may very well signal that the gold bears are going to be crushed and overrun." Norcini also said, "We could very well see silver ignite." Here is what Norcini had to say: "We have a surge in crude oil and gasoline. At the wholesale level, gasoline has already surged more than 20% higher. WTI Crude oil is up near $95 a barrel, and Brent crude is significantly higher. Not only do we have energy on the move, but we also have grains on the move as well." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com | |
| Global Gold Demand Down in Q2 but Central Bank Buying Hits Record Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:32 AM PDT
from mineweb.com: LONDON (Mineweb) – In its latest Gold Demand Trends report, the World Gold Council estimates, on figures provided by Thomson Reuters GFMS, that global gold demand in Q2 2012 was 990.0 tonnes, down 7% from the 1,065.8 tonnes in Q2 2011. The organisation does point out though that demand in Q2 2011 was exceptionally high. However perhaps one of the most interesting findings of this latest analysis is that gold buying by the world's Central Banks hit a new record of 157.5 tonnes , more than double the level of Q2 2011 and accounting for 16% of overall global demand. This, by our reckoning is also around 22.5% of total gold supply over the period extrapolating from the WGC's own annual figures for 2011. Central banks that significantly bolstered their holdings during the quarter included the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the central banks of the Philippines, Russia and Ukraine. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com | |
| Posted: 16 Aug 2012 08:30 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: Via Kenneth Landon, JPMorgan… Yes, JPMorgan Landon Lowdown: "Brother, Can You Spare $1.37″? As we await the latest developments out of the Eurozone and Washington, I take a moment to look back on this very important day in history. If you want to understand current events, then you first have to understand history. How did we get here? More specifically for financial markets, how did we end up in this mess — this economic purgatory? The answer boils down to a simple proposition on the philosophical level, which I will leave to the reader to identify because my doing so would likely ruffle a few too many feathers. So I will keep the discussion on the concrete-bound level. However, I am willing to say that the political philosophy that drove us to the current state of affairs was responsible for the respective concrete measures implemented over the years. The crisis in confidence that we observe today resulted from cumulative effects of those measures. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com | |
| Gold Prices, Demand Seen to Increase in Second Half Posted: 16 Aug 2012 07:32 AM PDT Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment research at the World Gold Council, discusses the outlook for gold demand and prices. He speaks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg) Mr. Grubb states that the comparison by quarters is biased and that the comparison by 1/2 years gives a more complete picture. He also feels that central bank buying will be at all time high records during the second 1/2 of the year due to the need to deversify against growing currancy risk. A worthy listen. Thanks to our friends at GoldCore.com for the link.Follow the link below to view and listen to the interview: August 16, 2012 (Source: Bloomberg)
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| Optimize Your Gold Portfolio with Ron Struthers Tips Posted: 16 Aug 2012 07:32 AM PDT | |
| Gold Investment &India, China Demand Down Posted: 16 Aug 2012 05:33 AM PDT Gold is floating in a tight range at $1,600/oz. today and gold continues consolidating at this level. The macroeconomic backdrop remains highly supportive with the euro-zone debt crisis far from resolved and the risk of debt crisis elsewhere. | |
| Gold Runs Out in Lisbon as Price Drop Compounds Money Misery Posted: 16 Aug 2012 05:12 AM PDT What does this imply?.......:hmmmm2: Paulo Oliveira and his wife sold their wedding rings to pay the rent after he lost his job as a builder last month. They were the couple's last pieces of jewelry. "We have no more gold to save us from being kicked out this month," the 46-year-old said as he stood in the area of downtown Lisbon popular with cash-for-gold stores. "Everyone I know is struggling, even the gold stores are empty because nobody has any more gold left to sell." Oliveira encapsulates a growing trend in debt crisis- stricken Europe as household gold supplies dry up after record prices and a deepening recession prompted a proliferation of places to exchange the metal for money. In Portugal, the historical home of some of Europe's biggest gold reserves, the number of jewelry stores, which include cash-for-gold shops, increased 29 percent in 2011 from a year earlier, a study commissioned by parliament found. In the first quarter, an average of two new stores opened every day, the report said. Now some of them are closing. "Business has gone from great to terrible in a matter of months," Luis Almeida, whose family has owned a gold store near Lisbon's Rossio Square for more than 40 years, said in an interview. "The sad truth is that most of my clients have already sold all of their gold rings." Market Slump Recycled gold supplies, which are derived in part from melted jewelry, fell 7.7 percent to 363.7 tons in the three months through June from the previous quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Global demand for gold dropped 7.1 percent in the second quarter to 990 metric tons from a year earlier, the London-based industry group said today in a report. Gold for immediate delivery jumped 10 percent in London in 2011, reaching a record of $1,921.15 an ounce on Sept. 6. Since then, the price has fallen 17 percent and traded at $1,602.91 at 8:24 a.m. in London. The market swing coincided with Portugal raising taxes and cutting spending to meet terms of the 78 billion-euro ($96.2 billion) 2011 bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and its European partners. Portugal was the third country to seek aid, following Greece and Ireland in 2010. "That's when I started selling all the gold I had," said Oliveira, who made 800 euros a month working as a bricklayer for construction companies such as Mota-Engil SGPS SA (EGL) and Soares da Costa SGPS SA before being laid off in July. Gold Exports Portugal's gold exports increased by more than five times to 519.4 million euros last year from 102.1 million euros in 2009, according to data published on the Lisbon-based National Statistics Institute's website. Oliveira said he now makes as little as 15 euros a day polishing shoes on a wooden stool in Lisbon's central Barros Queiroz street, where gold traders complain competition is eating profit. "It's like seven dogs for one bone," said Alcina Bernardo, who owns a gold shop 500 meters away in the Rua do Ouro street, once a center for goldsmiths working with metal brought back from Brazil in the 18th and 19th centuries. As a country, Portugal traditionally has guarded that gold. The central bank holds more gold relative to the size of the country's economy than any euro country, mostly accumulated during former dictator Antonio de Oliveira Salazar's 36 years in power, based on data compiled by the World Gold Council. The law prevents proceeds from selling any gold reserves from going toward the government's budget. Already Melted While central banks bought 157.5 tons in the second quarter, compared with 66.2 tons a year earlier, jewelry use slipped 14 percent to 418.3 tons, the council said. Jewelry demand from India, 2011's biggest buyer, plunged 30 percent to 124.8 tons, accounting for 30 percent of the global total. "The loose scrap in the market has already been melted," said Nikos Kavalis, an analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London who forecasts gold prices will fall to $1,250 an ounce by 2015."People are also less willing to sell their jewelry amid lower gold prices." With the Portuguese unemployment rate at a euro-era record of 15 percent in the second quarter, Oliveira is now wondering who will help bail him out now that his job and gold are gone. The government forecasts unemployment will increase to 15.5 percent for all of 2012 and to 15.9 percent next year. An average of 86 people a day sought help for indebtedness during the first half of the year, the Portuguese Association for Consumer Protection said in a report published in July. "It's okay for the gold shops around me to go broke, they've already made their profit," Oliveira said. "What I would like to know is who will help me and my wife when we get evicted?" To contact the reporter on this story: Henrique Almeida in Lisbon at halmeida5@bloomberg.net more at link...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ey-misery.html | |
| Central Banks Add Record Volumes of Gold in Q2 Posted: 16 Aug 2012 04:52 AM PDT Spot market prices for buying gold hovered just above $1,600 per ounce Thursday morning in London, well within their trading range of recent weeks, having risen back above that level amid ongoing speculation over quantitative easing. | |
| Posted: 16 Aug 2012 03:23 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverWell, the 9:00 a.m. BST sell-off in London proved to be the low of the day. The subsequent rally was weak...and then the price tailed off once again going into the New York open. The secondary low of the day came about ten minutes before the Comex began to trade...and the rally that followed came to an end at 9:40 a.m. Eastern time...and then traded sideways to down a hair going into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close in New York. The low of the day was a few dollars below $1,590 spot at 9:00 a.m. BST...and the New York high of $1,607.40 was at 9:40 a.m. Gold closed at $1,603.10 spot...up $4.10 on the day...and back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was around the 107,000 contract mark.
The silver price pattern was very similar to gold's, except more 'volatile'. Silver's high [$28.13 spot] also came at 9:40 a.m. Eastern as well...and from there it got sold off and closed 30 cents off its high. Silver's low came at 9:00 a.m. BST...and was somewhere below $27.50 spot. Silver closed on Wednesday at the precise same price as it did on Tuesday...and Monday...$27.83 spot. What are the chances, dear reader, that this was the free market in action? Net volume, once the rolls out of the September delivery month were subtracted, was a tiny 18,500 contracts.
By the way, these price moves were specific to only gold and silver. There was no trace of it in either platinum or palladium. The dollar index opened around the 82.55 mark, with the low of the day coming at precisely 10:00 a.m. in London. Then in the next ninety minutes the index rose to 82.75 before giving back about 10 basis points going in the 5:30 p.m. New York close. In a nutshell, the dollar index didn't do much yesterday...and was never a factor in Wednesday's precious metals price activity.
The gold stocks spiked up a bit at the open, but slid into negative territory as soon as it became obvious that the 9:40 a.m. high in gold was all there was. The stocks traded down about half a percent until about 2:20 p.m. Eastern. Then, like the Dow, they caught a bid...and by the close of trading, the HUI finished in the black to the tune of 0.43%.
For the most part, the silver shares finished in the plus column yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.72%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 88 gold and 4 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Friday. Morgan Stanley and the Bank of Nova Scotia were the two issuers of note, with 50 and 35 contracts respectively. HSBC USA and Deutsche Bank stopped 55 and 32 contracts respectively. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in GLD but, after about 1.6 million ounces was withdrawn from SLV on Tuesday, an authorized participant added 1,356,958 troy ounces of silver yesterday. There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. The Comex-approved depositories did not receive any silver on Tuesday, but they shipped 378,196 troy ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here. After my remarks about First Majestic Silver Corporation yesterday, I was less than surprised to find an e-mail from the company in my in-box when I finally crawled out of bed yesterday morning...and here it is in its entirety... Hi Ed – Hope all is well. Thanks for reading our news release yesterday, however, I'm honestly quite surprised to read your comment below in today's G&S Daily… Mr. Neumeyer (like yourself) is a silver bull and employs the use silver futures to trade the volatility in the market. By utilizing some of the top physical metal traders in the world (whom trade approx.. 70% of the world's silver market), we have access to valuable information. Furthermore, this activity is nothing new… for more than 2 years our shareholders have benefited from this activity. For the first half of 2012, First Majestic has realized a gain of $2.3M; 2011 +$2.4M; 2010 +$2.9M. Quite frankly, I realize your issue is not with the trading activity; it's directed at the use of Comex futures. Your concerns have been received and we always appreciate valuable shareholder feedback. BTW - the use of stops are not practical for professional trading… Regards, Todd Anthony, MBA Investor Relations Manager Toll Free: 1-866-529-2807 I have the usual number of stories for a weekday...and I hope you have time to at least skim the 'cut and paste' portions of each. Silver closed on Wednesday at the precise same price as it did on Tuesday...and Monday...$27.83 spot. The Hoarding Continues: China Has Imported More Gold In Six Months Than Portugal's Entire Gold Reserve. Silver hoard nears record but speculative bulls recoil. SLV takes in 1.36 million ounces. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeJPMorgan, UBS Said Among Banks Queried in Libor ProbeJPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc are among seven banks subpoenaed in New York and Connecticut's investigation into alleged manipulation of Libor, according to a person familiar with the matter and company filings. Subpoenas were sent in recent weeks to five of the banks, Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc in addition to JPMorgan and Barclays, the person said yesterday. Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG received subpoenas earlier this year as part of the investigation. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen are jointly investigating alleged manipulation of the London interbank offered rate by lenders. RBS, UBS, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Deutsche Bank are among the lenders regulators in Europe, Asia and the U.S. are investigating. The U.S. is conducting a criminal investigation. This story was posted on the Bloomberg website yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours. The link is here.  It Has Come to This: Close-to-Death Cash-Strapped Americans Selling Their Life Insurance PoliciesWe have such an eroded public safety net that folks are reduced to selling their life insurance policies for the sake of paying their medical bills. When we think of "innovative financial products," we probably think of credit-default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, and other ghoulish abstractions that we nervously half-remember from that last Michael Lewis book we read. We probably don't think of life insurance. But a fascinating new article in the New York Times Magazine gives a very informative tour through the "life-settlements business:" an emerging marketplace whereby people who need cash near what is ostensibly the end of their life sell their life insurance policies to a third party for a price. As ghoulish as this sounds, the article's writer, James Vlahos, makes the case that this is in fact a pro-consumer innovation in the life insurance marketplace. But what many commenters to the article really find ghoulish is the simple fact that [here in the U.S.A.] we have such an eroded public safety net that folks are reduced to selling their life insurance policies for the sake of paying their medical bills and the other costs associated with old age. This article showed up on the alternet.org website on Tuesday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering of the day. The link is here.  Goldman Non-Prosecution: AG Eric Holder Has No BallsI've been on deadline in the past week or so, so I haven't had a chance to weigh in on Eric Holder's predictable decision to not pursue criminal charges against Goldman, Sachs for any of the activities in the report prepared by Senators Carl Levin and Tom Coburn two years ago. Last year I spent a lot of time and energy jabbering and gesticulating in public about what seemed to me the most obviously prosecutable offenses detailed in the report – the seemingly blatant perjury before congress of Lloyd Blankfein and other Goldman executives, and the almost comically long list of frauds committed by the company in its desperate effort to unload its crappy "cats and dogs" mortgage-backed inventory. In the notorious Hudson transaction, for instance, Goldman claimed, in writing, that it was fully "aligned" with the interests of its client, Morgan Stanley, because it owned a $6 million slice of the deal. What Goldman left out is that it had a $2 billion short position against the same deal. If that isn't fraud, Mr. Holder, just what exactly is fraud? Matt Taibbi, in his usual pithy prose, tees Holder up and drives him down the fairway. This commentary was posted on the Rolling Stone magazine Internet site yesterday morning...and I thank Randall Reinwasser for bringing it to my attention. The link is here.  Charles Hugh Smith: We Are All Muppets NowEvery participant in the manipulated, rigged stock market is now a muppet. Just as President Richard Nixon signalled his embrace of endless fiscal stimulus and bottomless deficits by declaring "We are all Keynesians now," it is now apparent that we are all muppets now, willing participants in a fraudulent, manipulated market in the hopes that we will skim the same outsized gains reaped by the manipulators. Actually, Nixon said, "I am now a Keynesian in economics," but the catchier phrase has entered popular history. Using the word muppets to describe credulous investors who could be ripped off at will originated with investment banking giant Goldman Sachs. This piece showed up on the Zero Hedge website yesterday...and I thank reader Marshall Angeles for sending it. It's a short, but very worthwhile read...and the link is here.  More QE coming, Bank of England minutes showMinutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting this month showed that, although the decision to hold rates at 0.5pc and leave quantitative easing unchanged at £375bn was unanimous, the decision was "finely balanced" for some of the nine members. The release of the minutes coincided with separate comments from deputy governor Charlie Bean and fellow rate-setter Paul Fisher, both of whom suggested that QE still has a role to play in helping the recovery. The MPC voted 7-2 in favour of adding another £50bn to QE in July. It is expected to increase that again by £50bn before the end of the year. According to the minutes, some members even considered doing more this month "since a good case could be made at this meeting for more asset purchases". Last week, the Bank downgraded its forecasts for growth to zero this year and the minutes reflected concerns about the economy. The Bank now believes that even long-term prospects may have been damaged. This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site in the very early afternoon BST...and I thank Roy Stephens once again. The link is here.  UK threatens to 'assault' Ecuadorian Embassy to arrest AssangeBritish authorities have "warned" Ecuador that they could raid its embassy and arrest Julian Assange if he is not handed over. The Ecuadorian Foreign Minister responded by saying such a move would be a "flagrant violation" of international law. Ecuador received a "direct" threat from the authorities in London that they are prepared to storm the Ecuadorian Embassy and arrest Assange if he is not delivered to their custody. Ricardo Patino, Ecuador's Foreign Minister, said the "written threat," an aide memoire, was delivered to Ecuador's Foreign Ministry and ambassador in London. The letter received by the Ecuadorian Embassy stated that British authorities have a legal basis, founded in the Diplomatic and Consular Act of 1987, to arrest Assange on the Embassy's premises. "You need to be aware that there is a legal base in the UK, the Diplomatic and Consular Premises Act 1987, that would allow us to take actions in order to arrest Mr Assange in the current premises of the Embassy," read the letter. "We sincerely hope that we do not reach that point, but if you are not capable of resolving this matter of Mr Assange's presence in your premises, this is an open option for us." This story was posted on the Russia Today website early today...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it our way. The link is here.  Standard Chartered and Iran: Hush moneyIt could have been disastrous. Standard Chartered was facing a hearing before New York state's Department of Financial Services (DFS) on August 15th that would have certainly aired embarrassing information. Instead it will be expensive. The bank has acceded to a fast settlement of the charges that it had illicitly processed $250 billion in transactions with Iran, paying $340m in civil penalties and agreeing to various other provisions. As a result of the deal, the bank's management is temporarily off the hook for personal liability. Just as important, they will not have to defend the bank's actions before the regulator. The agreement also appears to cap potential penalties which, in theory, could have included losing a critical license to operate in America and thus provide its vast emerging-markets network with cross-border dollar transactions. Any celebration, however, will be muted. In the agreement, Standard Chartered acknowledged that the scope of its illicit activity was indeed $250 billion, the number put forward by the DFS, and not merely $14m, which the bank initially insisted was the case. Furthermore, the payment does not stop America's other regulators from pursuing their own charges. Ordinarily there is a sorting out process between regulators before a settlement, and often before the announcement of charges. But in this case the DFS moved ahead on its own, much to the surprise of Standard Chartered, as well as officials at the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Justice Department. This very short story was posted in the economist.com website yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it. The link is here.  | |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 16 2012 Posted: 16 Aug 2012 03:00 AM PDT | |
| Posted: 16 Aug 2012 02:43 AM PDT Thanks for your patience. My little talk I think went well (a short talk on chain of title and securitization fail is actually harder than a long talk) and as the only non-attorney presenting, I of course overprepared too. But I got to meet Judge Rakoff, which was totally cool, and sat where judges normally sit in what is usually a big ceremonial courtroom but is currently being used by appellate judges (in fact, I'd watched a hearing not that long ago in the very same room). But the result is I'm even more behind than usual, although I may be able to get more or less caught up later today. Stickleback fish show initiative, personality and leadership PhysOrg (Robert M) Dumb and Dum Dummer: NOAA Clarifies That It Is Not Buying Hollow Points For Weatherman . . . Just Fisheries Personnel Jonathan Turley (Chuck L). Now we know why…those fish with leadership potential, gotta watch them… Here's an Omical Tale: Scientists Discover Spreading Suffix Wall Street Journal (furzy mouse) Snow in August? It's steamy now, but forecasters see a big winter coming Raw Story Ecuador to Let Assange Stay in Its London Embassy New York Times Julian Assange: UK 'threat' to arrest Wikileaks founder BBC (bob) Drought and climate scepticism in corn belt Financial Times (Scott). Agnotology works. Al-Qaeda's 'suicide bombers wanted' ad Times of Israel New Romney Campaign Ad: Ask Not What your Medicare Taxes Can Do For THEM, … Beverly Mann, Angry Bear Summer of gloom for crisis-hit Rome shops AFP Greece Before the Abyss Only Bankruptcy Can Help Now Der Spiegel Paul Ryan's Democratic Fan Club Bloomberg (furzy mouse) Ryan Begins Attacking Romney's Record As Massachusetts Governor Onion Audit Notes: Bill Black on CNBC, LAT eyes Ryan's budget, robosigning Columbia Business Review No Alpha: Bain Capital's Investment Results Barry Ritholtz Bank Deal Rankles Regulators Wall Street Journal (Joe Costello) NASSIM TALEB WARNS: Stay Out Of The Investment Industry Business Insider (Chuck L) The Interchange Settlement Adam Levitin, Credit Slips. It sucks! The Accounting Trick Behind Thirty Years of Scandal Time (Carol B). Grr, I skimmed the beginning (and did link to it yesterday), but I'm late to a paper on my favorite topic…CDOs! "Shadow" & "Ghost" Inventory Quantified Mark Hanson (Michael R) No Criminal Case Is Likely in Loss at MF Global New York Times. If it were not so late, I'd write a disapproving post. And we get the usual bullshit: "sloppiness," not intent. I'm sorry, you don't need intend in Sarbox, all you need is false certifications about internal controls, and it's bloomin' obvious they were deficient. Seven banks in New York Libor probe Financial Times. A year ago, I would have taken this seriously. And there is a possibility Schneiderman will deliver the goods. He now might feel he has to prove his manhood, both after being upstaged by Lawsky and after having been treated badly by the Obama administration, and worse, exposed in the media for having cut a lousy deal for himself in the mortgage settlement. But Elizabeth Warren demonstrates that people who spend too much time in close proximity with Team Obama develop Stockholm syndrome. And Schneiderman's conduct on the mortgage front has shown that me may be too slow moving and cautious to be an effective prosecutor. * * * lambert here: D – 24 and counting* "There is no act too small, no act too bold. The history of social change is the history of millions of actions, small and large, coming together at points in history and creating a power that governments cannot suppress." -- Howard Zinn Capitol occupations. MT. "Coal giant Arch Coal last month quietly submitted an application to state regulators for a strip mining permit for the proposed Otter Creek Coal Mine. The news comes as demonstrators have taken up residence in the state Capitol rotunda to protest Otter Creek development and the possibility of coal exports in MT." Montreal. Silent majority: "[Premier Charest] constantly mixes protesting with violence and wants to do away with both. See for yourself: 'We don't want protests, do you hear? We don't want violence. We created a law specifically to put an end to these things', he said before a group of young Liberals." Occupy. March on Wall Street South: List of DNCon organizing centers for transport, etc. … OccupyMemphis: "Ideas are bulletproof.Memphis knows that. OM is here to stay, in one way or another." Great statement. … OccupyOakland: "About 7 a.m. Monday, activists took over a vacant building in East Oakland's San Antonio neighborhood. [Volunteers stocked it with donated books and cleared out] grime, old mattresses, graffiti and other markings of abandonment. A bilingual banner welcomed passers-by to the 'Victor Martinez People's Library." … "Late Monday evening, a group of Oakland police officers busted into the city's newest library, kicked everybody out and put bars on the doors." … OccupyStockton: "Also, Occupy believes the city of Stockton is inhumane to its homeless. Occupy has opened its camp to them. Some homeless use the camp as a sort of day shelter. There were more homeless occupying the park than Occupiers." Snarky, Fukuyama-quoting reporter, interesting situation. … OccupyEvanston: "The Occupy Evanston movement remains uncertain whether the [Evanston] government will follow the group's suggestions and cut ties with [JPMorgan Chase]." … OccupyMaine: "Occupy Maine has been out of Portland's Lincoln Park since February, but the group has continued to meet and work on social justice issues. They held a public forum Tuesday night where people could share their personal struggles with foreclosure." CA. Health care: "For poorer Californians, the [ObamaCare Health] Exchange is still too expensive." Shocker! … Top two primaries: "101 out of 113 is a pretty impressive record for open seats. I'd guess that this record is on par with party machine success rates in anointing candidates in conventions in the days before direct primaries." CO.Water: "Driven by drought, Gov. John Hickenlooper is urging Obama and federal engineers to speed decisions on proposed water projects designed to sustain urban growth" (MR). Let's just invade Canada. …Fracking: "The volume of water required annually to develop new oil and gas wells in the state could supply up to 79,000 CO households for a year based on average residential use." … Fracking: "Among the parts of the Longmont ordinance the state objects to are requirements for groundwater monitoring, a ban on oil and gas operations in residential zones,and setbacks from streams and protecting wildlife" (MR). … Fracking: " An explosion at an Encana Corp. natural gas well east of U.S. 85 between Platteville and Fort Lupton killed one man and injured three other workers just before 1 p.m. Wednesday." DC. Family Research Council shooting: "A law enforcement official said at one point in the scuffle, the shooter expressed views that differed from those of the Family Research Council. The official also said the shooter was carrying a bag that had a Chick-Fil-A bag inside." I don't support the violence (George Till) so but and something like this was bound to happen some day; Gal 6:7. FL. Poll: "Romney's ticket is deadlocked with Obama's over Medicare, 44-45%, even though Ryan is the father of he so-called 'Ryan plan,' which Democrats hae villified for two years for 'ending Medicare.'" … Tea party: "[Tea partier] Ted Yoho, political newcomer and Central Florida veterinarian, narrowly leads 12-term Rep. Cliff Stearns in a redistricted House primary with 100 percent of precincts reporting." GA. Accountability: "Indeed, it appears that [Environmental Protection Division] Director Judson Turner largely ignored concerns that area citizens raised June 12 during a public hearing on the draft permit. About 300 people showed up at Effingham County High School that night. Nearly all who spoke urged the EPD to stop King Finishing from polluting the Ogeechee. If Mr. Deal's EPD is going to rubber stamp these 'draft' permits, the least it can do is be honest about it." KY. Test of compassion: "'The theory of evolution is a theory, and essentially the theory of evolution is not science — Darwin made it up,' [Rep. Ben Waide, R-Madisonville] said." NH. Tinpot tyrants: "A New Hampshire blogger who last year was acquitted in Greenfield District Court of charges that he illegally filmed inside the Franklin County Jail was found guilty in Manchester, NH on charges that he recorded conversations with three public officials without their permission." NY. Legacy parties: "A private reception for D Assembly candidates was held at Destiny USA, developer Robert Congel's newly expanded mall. [Congel,] a Republican, aggressively sought federal, state and local tax breaks for Destiny" (Bob), One big happy! OH. Voting: "On August 15, U.S. District Court Judge Peter Economus heard oral arguments in Obama for America v Husted, 2:12-cv-636. The issue is whether OH must let all voters participate in early voting during the weekend before the general election." … Voting: "The three-day stretch was viewed by many as a key factor in Obama's turnout operation four years ago, when he won Ohio by 4 percentage points." OR. Sustainability: "The first non-profit pub in the United States, maybe even the world, will be opening soon in Northeast Portland.The pub will be called The Oregon Public House." PA. Voting: "PA Commonwealth Court Judge Robert Simpson this morning refused to issue a preliminary injunction to block the state's new Voter ID law, which will require voters to show state-approved identification at polling places during the Nov. 6 general election." "With Justice Joan Orie Melvin suspended, the state's highest court has just six members, an even split of Ds and Rs." (BradBlog comments.) … Fracking: "Marcellus is poised to become the top producing gas field in the country. Now questions are less about the production capability of the Marcellus (at least over the short term) and more about where all this gas coming on line will go." Good capacity survey. … Transparency: "Trainers are telling state workers learning a new phone system that they can use an instant-messaging feature to avoid citizens' public record requests, the state's open records director told Gov. Tom Corbett in a letter." TX. Mass incarceration: "During the prison boom of the 1990s, a belief pervaded that the construction and operation of new lockups would stimulate a surrounding community's economy. This assumption has been largely unsupported, but the prisons remain." … Public good: "Activists seeking to repeal a new law requiring City Hall's permission to serve charitable meals on city-owned land turned in 34,000 petition signatures on Monday asking that the issue be put to voters in November." … Transparency: "The Austin American-Statesman obtained an official email from July 13 showing that Kenneth Stock, assistant to the chief of staff of the department, ordered the department's technology staff to prevent emails from people affiliated with Texas Watch, an insurance advocacy group, from being delivered." Outside baseball. Fracking: "[T]here's no official national database of fracked wells." Good survey. … Police state: "The recent chalk arrests might just be a warm-up for a chalk-pocalypse at the upcoming Democratic and Republican national conventions, which in past years have been targeted by a wide range of chalk terrorists." Kee-rist on a crutch! Chalk washes off! What's wrong with these people? … Police state: "Literally every day, someone is being arrested for doing nothing more than taking a photograph in a public place. It makes no sense to me. Photography is an expression of free speech." … Police state: "The Army defines full spectrum operations as the combination of offensive, defensive, and either stability operations overseas or civil support operations on U.S. soil)." Good to know. … Police state: "What has gone largely unremarked upon is the role played by little-known networks of telecom companies and international government agencies, which have been quietly collaborating to reform surveillance laws so that they are 'harmonized' to a similar standard from country to country." … Public goods: "What other public services might be subject to a 'trigger' law? Should 51% of the riders on a public bus have the power to seize control of the bus and privatize it?" …. Trust: "Government requires trust. Reagan trusted the Soviets more than the modern GOP (and their base) trusts Ds." … Legacy parties: "The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) has been around for 37 years." And only afer 37 years did the Ds make an issue of it. Grand Bargain™-brand catfood watch. Vice President Joe Biden [to mostly over 60] cafe patrons in VA[:] 'I guarantee you, flat guarantee you, there will be no changes in Social Security. I flat guarantee you.'" Let Obama say it himself, then. And to everybody, not just over-60s. The trail. Chelsea Clinton, Vogue: "I believe that engaging in the political process is part of being a good person." Wrong article. … DISemployment: "Presidential campaign focus turns to Medicare, not jobs."Translation: The two legacy parties have co-operated to successfully normalize permanent 8% nominal unemployment. They will now argue about whether Medicare should be destroyed sooner (Rs) or later (Ds). … DISemployment: "Ten [of 14 swing states] have lower unemployment rates than the current national average, which hit 8.3 percent in July.Only three swing states saw their unemployment rates increase more than the nation's did during the last four years. Eleven have lower foreclosure rates than the nation, and eight have seen stronger property values than the national average since 2008. And since the end of 2008, eight swing states have watched their economic growth outpace the nation's."…. Voting: "Obama leads Romney by 43% to 14% among the nearly 2 in 5 Americans who are likely to sit out 2012. More of these people — 23% — say they would vote for a third party candidate rather than vote for Romney." …Voting: ""But right now, the ["negative"] attacks are working on swing voters. The other 90 percent of the public are pretty much fixed in their preferences. They may be unhappy about them [the ads], but they are not driving the marketplace, [said John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University.]" In what sense is an election a "marketplace"? Well, in every sense, these days. … Corruption: "A D committee chairman overrode his own subpoena three years ago in an investigation of former subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. to exclude records showing that he, other House members and congressional aides got VIP discounted loans from the company, documents show. [CA Rep. Darrell Issa], in a statement to The Associated Press on Wednesday, said, 'It was a long fight to expose how Countrywide used its VIP program to advance its business and policy goals.'" CountryWide is a lot more interesting than Solyndra, Darrell. … Senate, Nate Silver: "The battle for control of the Senate looks like a tossup, just as it did in May." Robama vs. Obomney watch. Jeffrey Sachs: "Still, American liberals (those to the left of the political centre), who are now vehemently blasting Mr Ryan's budget should take note. Their candidate has also already accepted a brutal shrinkage of government programmes in coming years. The similarities of the Obama budget and Mr Ryan's are striking." Green party.Jill Stein is hiring. Campaign HQ in Marison, WI which is pretty cool. Libertarian Party. Gary Johnson: ""We should readdress how the (election, polling and debate) system works, but the Commission on Presidential Debates is run exclusively by Ds and Rs and they have no interest in reworking presidential debates." Romney. Ryan pick: "You can pretend like you have this thing in the bag, but you know good goddamn well that this race just got real interesting, real fast." Do click through for source. … Ryan pick: "Although Rubio received the most coverage out of any VP candidates, Ryan had the greatest portion of statements that were either attacking Obama or praising Romney among the other VP candidates." … Ryan pick, losing the political class: Ryan wears funny looking clothes like Al Gore wears earth tones. … Ryan pick, losing the political class: "[RYAN:] You get your hand inside the fish and they kind of, they come up on your hand. Then you just squeeze wherever you are on that fish and pull it out. I know it sounds crazy, but it's really exhilarating." It's called "noodling." … Banksters: "Paul Singer, the billionaire hedge fund manager who is one of the Republican party's most influential donors, is pressing Mitt Romney, presidential candidate, to make the case for tougher bank regulation that would go beyond the Dodd-Frank law." … Medicare teebee ad: ""You paid in to Medicare for years every paycheck. Now, when you need it, Obama has cut $716 billion dollars from Medicare. Why? To pay for Obamacare! So now the money you paid for your guaranteed healthcare is going to a massive new government program that's not for you. " (The wording seems to be re-engineered as a response to critiques like this.) Critique of the re-engineered wording: "[T]he majority of the money that the ACA takes from Medicare doesn't go directly to seniors. Instead, it goes to help non-elderly Americans get health insurance…. The ad implies that transferring money in this way is wrong, but keep in mind that the money coming out of Medicare isn't coming out of benefits. It's primarily coming out of payments to health insurers and the rest of the health care industry, both of whom should be able to absorb it." Absorb? Surely they'll cut back care to preserve profits? Obama. Here we go: "A group of former special operations and CIA officers says the administration has endangered lives by leaking information about the successful U.S. military raid that killed Osama Bin Laden last year." … Biden: "The nation's first elected black governor, Doug Wilder of VA, has lambasted Biden on national television for his comment Tuesday about banks keeping people 'in chains.'"… Biden, 2006: "[Delaware was a] 'slave state that fought beside the North. That's only because we couldn't figure out how to get to the South. There were a couple of states in t | |
| Global Macro Notes: Falling Bonds, Rising Transports, Vulnerable Aussie Posted: 16 Aug 2012 02:12 AM PDT Overbought conditions can be resolved in one of two ways: Either through price or through time. The major U.S. indices appear to be resolving through time, grinding sideways rather than correcting lower. The potential for a fear-induced sell-off catalyst remains high, but bulls are gaining traction.
The Dow Transports were previously non-committal, a fly in the ointment of the bull case for the major U.S. indices. On Wednesday the Trannies resolved bullish.
In further bullish confirmation, long bonds are accelerating to the downside, suggesting a rotation out of safe havens and into risk assets. What is some possible reasoning for this? In addition to the central bank "wrapper" – bad news gets stimulus, good news means equities still king in a zero-interest world – general perception may be sinking in that Europe has stabilized. This could be a completely wrong perception, but absence of a fear-mongering macro catalyst (at least in the short run) lends a strong argument to equities. Conditions remain hostile with macro risk elevated and the VIX at low extremes. The counter to this is that the VIX can stay low for extended periods of time, as equities grind higher in the absence of fear catalysts. Notable piece from WSJ on reaching for yield down under. In-flows into Australian bonds have kept the currency strong.This phenomenon is interesting for multiple reasons:  CLICK TO ENLARGE The source of AUDUSD strength explained. This present a clearer picture of why the Aussie dollar short-term bottomed on July 1st 2012. Incoming capital flows buoyed the currency. Dangerous assumptions re, China revealed. Those 'reaching for yield' via Australian debt are implicitly assuming China's hard landing will not destabilize Australia's heavily natural-resource-leveraged economy (with housing bubble to go with). This could prove an exceptionally bad assumption. Potential double negative for AUDUSD moving forward. If the global slowdown grows more serious, strongly impacting base metals prices – as others have noted, copper looks very vulnerable – then assumptions of China avoiding hard landing could be proven false, severe decline in base metals prices could follow, and the double down Aussie carry trade could unwind in severe fashion. On the other hand, if the "risk on" rally in Western assets appears sustainable, AUDUSD could decline anyway as foreign capital withdraws from Australian debt holdings and returns to local opportunities. In this low conviction macro environment, we still very much like the big picture drivers for short AUDUSD.
China continues to look like a train wreck in slow motion – fiscal crisis delayed but not denied. The ripple effects will be felt.
Tame CPI numbers and economic weakness around the edges support the possibility of Fed QE, at least in stimulus hopers' minds. A further interesting factor in the possibility that options sellers are seeking to pin the S&P to 1400, thus providing more incentive to maintain an extremely dull range.
Europe is still a disaster in waiting. The question is how long of a reprieve we get before the shit hits the fan again. How crappy has forex been as a return generator these past few years? Epically crappy:
This is just ridiculous:
It makes me want to shout, WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO RISK MANAGEMENT? Does Paulson somehow get a pass on risk management, just because he manages billions? And now he is "doubling down" on his gold bets… already down +20%… What is wrong with these guys? What is wrong with their investors? More Bullish Setups Part of our process involves scanning hundreds of charts (typically 400+), both mechanically and visually, on a daily basis. The feedback of this scan gives additional flavor as to the character and positioning of the market. We are starting to see more bullish setups pop up now, and more winning stocks separate themselves from losing stocks. The picture is consistent with bulls gaining traction as overbought conditions resolve through time rather than price. Notable technical developments:
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| How to Beat Vulture Debt Collectors Posted: 16 Aug 2012 01:51 AM PDT In a bit of synchronicity, last weekend I had dinner with a buddy whose sibling recently was dunned by a buyer of junk debt. For those not familiar with this dark underbelly of the credit markets, these vultures buy consumer debt from banks (mainly credit card receivables) that the bank has written off. That means they don't think it's worth pursuing. At best it's too close to the statute of limitations expiring or the documentation is questionable or the amounts are all wrong. Most of the time. it's worse than that: the debt was never owed (they are going after the wrong person), the debt was paid off or discharged in bankruptcy, the statute of limitations has long passed. The buyers of this debt pay pennies on the dollar and treat it like a lottery ticket. They sue, but have NO intention of spending any money on the case beyond making that filing. Their fond hope is that the borrower fails to respond, and they win a default judgment. With that in hand, they can garnish wages or bank accounts. The flip side is any minimal credible response will beat back these claims. And remember, the burden of proof is on the debt collector to demonstrate that the consumer agreed to the debt, to provide a full record of principal, interest, payments, and fees, and to prove a complete and unbroken chain of title (sound familiar?). An article by law professor Peter Holland is a superb guide on how to beat these cases. While the intended audience for this article is lawyers, it is highly accessible, and gives a sense of what an utter swampland this area is. He also stresses that it takes diligence rather than experience to pursue these cases:
The article warns, however, that fewer than 1% of the consumers who respond in court are represented by counsel, and that they are typically not treated equitably, since debt collectors have convinced many judges that borrowers are deadbeats and that the rules of evidence don't hold in small claims (as the article stresses, that is not accurate). Holland does not intend his article to be a guide to pro se defendants, but it can serve as a great guide for newbie lawyers or even law students to take on these cases. And he also points out that in the wake of the robo-signing scandal, many judges are more sensitive to assaults on the integrity of the courts than they once were, and it's not difficult to depict some of the issues presented by these actions as being similar to those in robosigning cases. Nathalie Martin of Credit Slips recounts some of the recommendations Holland makes:
And there's lots more, like investigating whether the plaintiff had a checkered history (felons on staff? violations of the Fair Debt Collections Practices Act? FTC fines? evidence of past use of fraudulent affidavits?) and putting the judge on notice of any findings. Holland concludes:
Amen.
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| One Hour with Webster Tarpley: Collapse Coming Posted: 16 Aug 2012 12:53 AM PDT Something really strange appears to be happening. All over the globe, governments and big banks are acting as if they are anticipating an imminent financial collapse. from thealexjoneschannel: Unfortunately, we are not privy to the quiet conversations that are taking place in corporate boardrooms and in the halls of power in places such as Washington D.C. and London, so all we can do is try to make sense of all the clues that are all around us. Of course it is completely possible to misinterpret these clues, but sticking our heads in the sand is not going to do any good either. Last week, it was revealed that the U.S. government has been secretly directing five of the biggest banks in America "to develop plans for staving off collapse" for the last two years. By itself, that wouldn't be that big of a deal. But when you add that piece to the dozens of other clues of imminent financial collapse, a very troubling picture begins to emerge. Over the past 12 months, hundreds of banking executives have been resigning, corporate insiders have been selling off enormous amounts of stock, and I have been personally told that a significant number of Wall Street bankers have been shopping for "prepper properties" in rural communities this summer. Meanwhile, there have been reports that the U.S. government has been stockpiling food and ammunition, and Barack Obama has been signing a whole bunch of executive orders that would potentially be implemented in the event of a major meltdown of society. So what does all of this mean? It could mean something or it could mean nothing. What we do know is that a financial collapse is coming at some point. Over the past 40 years, the total amount of all debt in the United States has grown from about 2 trillion dollars to nearly 55 trillion dollars. That is a recipe for financial armageddon, and it is inevitable that this gigantic bubble of debt is going to burst at some point. ~TVR |
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