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Friday, August 10, 2012

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2012-08-06 Morgan Stanley gold price forecast

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 01:35 PM PDT

Morgan Stanley cuts its gold price forecasts for Q4/2012 from $2.011 to $1.750.

Read more: Aug 6, 2012 Wall Street Journal

Earnings Preview: Dollar Tree

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 11:17 AM PDT

By Vytautas Drumelis:

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is scheduled to report its Q2 2012 results on August 16, 2012, before the market opens. The Street expects EPS and revenue of $0.47 and $1.71B, respectively.

In this article I will recap the historical results of the company, its latest EPS estimates vs. surprises, the latest news from DLTR and the news from its closest competitors.

Recent EPS Actuals vs. Estimates

The company has met or beaten analysts' estimates in the last four quarters. In the last quarter it reported $0.50 EPS, beating analyst estimates of $0.49.

The consensus EPS estimate is $0.47 based on 24 analysts' estimates, up from $0.39 a year ago. Revenue estimates are $1.71B, up from $1.54B a year ago. The median target price by analysts for the stock is $54.00.

Average recommendation: Overweight

Source: Marketwatch

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

  • On July 2, 2012, Deutsche Bank downgraded the company from Buy

Complete Story »

To QE Or Not To QE, Disinflation May Be In The Cards

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 10:46 AM PDT

By Jeffrey Lewis:

In its most recent Meeting Minutes for June 19-20, which were released on July 11th, the FOMC gave no indications of another round of stimulus or QEIII. Nevertheless, the monetary policy making committee did reiterate that it would continue its "Operation Twist" program of bond repurchases through the end of this year.

While the immediate reaction to the FOMC Meeting Minutes depressed precious metals prices and drove the U.S. dollar higher, markets corrected afterwards. The price of gold dropped marginally, and the price of silver actually rose by 10 cents per ounce.

The Fed's monetary policy has exerted considerable influence in all capital markets and will continue to be a driving force in the perceived value of the U.S. dollar that is ultimately reflected in the pricing of consumer goods.

Disinflation and its Possible Benefits

Disinflation is typically defined as a drop in the rate of inflation or a decrease


Complete Story »

Joe Foster: Gold's Yearlong Consolidation Complete, Setting Up Rally To All-time Highs

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 10:31 AM PDT

By Hard Assets Investor:

Gold analyst Joe Foster is the investment team leader for Van Eck's flagship gold fund, the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund. He also serves on the investment teams for the Van Eck Global Hard Assets Fund and Van Eck VIP Global Hard Assets Fund, and is an advisor to the Market Vectors ETF Trust - Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). Foster has been in the mining and investment business for more than 25 years and is frequently quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Barron's. He's also a frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. Hard Assets Investor Managing Editor Drew Voros spoke recently with Foster about the gold market as well as the gold mining sector.

HardAssetsInvestor: In your opinion, what is the biggest influence on gold prices right now?

Joe Foster: The biggest would be expectation towards more monetary easing, either out


Complete Story »

The Dumb Money Hates Silver, It’s Time to Go Long

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 09:35 AM PDT

Right now a number of technical, seasonal, and sentiment indicators are pointing upwards for this volatile metal. This could well be the critical turning point silver investors have been waiting for. Let me explain.

Daily Pfennig: Chinese Data Throws Currencies Under The Bus!

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 07:06 AM PDT

from caseyresearch.com:

In This Issue…

* Chinese data prints weak…
* A$ gets hit the worst…
* Tricky headline writers…
* Some technical talk on Gold…

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

Chinese Data Throws Currencies Under The Bus!

Good day…. And a Happy Friday to one and all! I got caught up on my writing assignments yesterday, so, on that basis alone, this should be a Fantastico Friday! How about the U.S. women athletes! Good thing for us, as a Gold medal was taken by the women teams in beach volleyball, water polo and soccer! Don't know about you, but I have been fascinated by these Olympics and have been glued to the TV watching them… And those platform divers, are they nuts are what? These Olympics will be over soon, and there will be a void for me for a few days…

Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com

Cash Out Of Gold And Send Kids To College?

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 07:04 AM PDT

from goldcore.com:

Today's AM fix was USD 1,608.50, EUR 1,310.92, and GBP 1,030.69 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,612.75, EUR 1,307.46 and GBP 1,029.79 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $27.91/oz, €22.84/oz and £17.96/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,405.50/oz, palladium at $576.00/oz and rhodium at $1,060/oz.

Gold climbed $4.90 or 0.03% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,617.70/oz. Silver fell to $27.86 then rallied and finished with a gain of 0.39%.

Gold appears to in lock down mode this week with prices trapped in an unusually narrow 1% or $15 range between $1,603/oz and $1,618/oz.

Keep on reading @ goldcore.com

Will QE3, if it Ever Comes, Be ‘Shaky’ Gold’s Last Hurrah?

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 07:01 AM PDT

from mineweb.com:

LONDON – Quantitative easing (QE) – boosting the economy by printing money to buy bonds – could in theory encourage bullion buying by increasing liquidity while anchoring low long-term interest rates and by arousing concerns over longer-term inflation. These are factors that have supported gold in the past.

Nearly 60 percent of respondents to a Reuters poll in July predicted the metal would exceed its current quarterly record price in the last three months of this year, with QE overwhelmingly flagged as the catalyst.

QE's arrival is not certain, however. Economists surveyed by Reuters this month put the odds at about three in five. Even if it does materialise, its impact on gold may be muted.

Keep on reading @ mineweb.com

BIG NUKE Imminent in Precious Metals

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 07:00 AM PDT

from beaconequity.com:

Something very big is most likely about to be dropped in the global financial markets within a few weeks—like a nuke exploding—and those holding precious metals stand to be the big winners—especially silver investors, who could make a small fortune in a very short period of time.

Here's the overwhelming evidence of something very big coming soon to the financial markets:

". . . evidence points to an upside break for both gold and silver, which is not dissimilar to our Silver – The Coming Bullet – August 2010 'Trend Ready' state," Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies told King World News on Aug. 9.

Keep on reading @ beaconequity.com

Ted Butler: JPMorgan is Screwed Even if CFTC Drops Silver Investigation

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 06:55 AM PDT

from caseyresearch.com:

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It was another basically 'nothing' day in the gold market on Planet Earth on Thursday. But, like Wednesday, gold hit its low of the day just a few minutes before the Comex open in New York.

From there, the gold price rallied…if you want to dignify it with that name… right up until a few minutes before the Comex close. The high tick of the day, around 1:25 p.m. Eastern time, was $1,619.50 spot…up about twenty bucks off its 8:00 a.m. Eastern time low. From there it traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.

Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com

Gold Technicals Portend Impending Breakout

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 06:26 AM PDT

Is a Strong Dollar Trouble for Gold?

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 06:18 AM PDT

The Seasonality Of Gold - The Autumn Effect

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 06:10 AM PDT

Trading Places in Precious Metals Trade

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 06:09 AM PDT

This week's final trading session opened with the precious metals turning lower across the boards. Gold slipped to within $3 of the $1,600 mark once again overnight and it traded with a loss of $10 per ounce at $1607 in New York at last check.

Time to 'Cash Out of Gold & Send Kids to College?'

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 05:53 AM PDT

Gold appears to in lock down mode this week with prices trapped in an unusually narrow 1% or $15 range. Technically, a narrowing wedge pattern suggests a close below or above support and resistance could lead to rapid and sharp moves down or up.

Bullion Market 'Marking Time' to Jackson Hole

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 05:21 AM PDT

US dollar gold prices traded slightly lower Friday morning in London, hovering around $1,610 an ounce for most of the session, as stock markets also edged lower and US Treasuries gained, after trade data from China provided further signs of economic slowdown.

Marshall Auerback: Central Banks Will Need to Recover Their Gold

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 05:19 AM PDT

If the Rothschild's are Expecting Collapse…

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 05:11 AM PDT

Rothschild history no longer applies, protecting your bank and business by international "salt and peppering" no longer works. Reuters is now running a "story" that a secret program instructs banks to have liquidation plans for "worst case scenarios" in which the government would not be able to effect a bailout.

from wepollock:

I provide commentary on unverified statements calling for the restoration of banking safeguards, which in turn would imply that the Rothschild bank sees game over in total. The downside of a global world being that it becomes impossible to hide through international diversification and "salt and peppering." Salt and Peppering between nation states being a key historic feature of the Rothschild bank. (comments have been disable because of the sensitivity to this topic) Lord Myners Calls For Full Glass Steagall

In an interview with Jon Snow on this evening's Channel 4 News, Lord Myners called for full Glass Steagall legislation to deal with the corruption of the banks, a policy I have been demanding for years.

Yes, I do agree with that. I think the evidence of the last few weeks, and Diamond himself said that many of the problems that emerged in Barclays were within the ringfence as envisaged. Now the government has already diluted the ring fence that was proposed by Vickers, but the ring fence doesn't go far enough. We need to go to what is known as a Glass Steagall model, which is a complete separation … Lord Myners.

~TVR

Silver Update: 401K Doomsday

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 04:52 AM PDT

brotherjohnf with Silver Update from 8/08/12 titled 401k Doomsday.

from brotherjohnf:

~TVR

Central Bank Stimulus Hopes Underpin Gold Price

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 04:49 AM PDT

Gold prices have been moving up in tandem with risky assets and commodities. Stimulus expectations from global central banks have underpinned gold price at a level above $1,600 and several pieces of economic data have been supporting sentiment.

Looking for a silver lining

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 04:45 AM PDT

Investing in precious metals hasn't been much of a fun ride lately. In late April of 2011, silver spiked to its still standing nominal high of $50, last reached over 30 years ago, back in 1980. ...

Three King World News Blogs/Interviews

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 03:22 AM PDT

The first is with Ben Davies...and it's headlined "There is a Massive Buyer in the Gold Market".  The second blog is with Bill Haynes.  It's entitled "We Are Now Seeing Huge Orders For Physical Gold & Silver".  And lastly is this audio interview with Peter Schiff...and according to Eric

read more

Silver Pricing: Helicopter Ben & the COT

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 12:21 AM PDT

This central bank has virtually complete control over inflation in the United States, and hence it can strongly influence the future price of your metals. Silver may well be the poster child that will lead the way to higher prices.

Links for 2012-08-09 [del.icio.us]

Posted: 10 Aug 2012 12:00 AM PDT

Get Everyone You Know in Palm Beach County to Vote for Lisa Epstein for Clerk of the Court Next Tuesday

Posted: 09 Aug 2012 11:39 PM PDT

Readers may know I don't do political endorsements. I'm making an exception because I've worked with Lisa Epstein and am extremely impressed with her knowledge, energy, and tenacity. And separately, readers may have come to recognize that county clerks and registers of deeds can be very important guards of the integrity of property records and legal processes. But only a very few, such as Jeff Thigpen in Guilford County, NC, and John O'Brien in Southern Essex County, Massachusetts, have bothered to investigate their own files and speak up about the large-scale problems they have unearthed.

Lisa is an oncology nurse who has become a self trained and formidable mortgage document and foreclosure procedures (as in abuse) expert. When I was invited by the Pew Charitable Trusts to pitch on a grant opportunity to do research on foreclosures, I asked Lisa to join the proposal team because I had already seen the caliber of her work and her ability to ferret out information and devise analyses quickly (short version of long story: we got approved but turned down the grant due to, among other things, Pew's contract. For instance, they insisted on the right to audit my books and records even though this was a fixed dollar amount, and pretty modest grant, and I told them they could pay us in arrears, after we had submitted the final report and they had accepted it).

One example of her skill level: Adam Levitin, who is generally regarded as the top legal scholar in the US on mortgage securizations, asked a question in passing in a June post:

The irony here is that even if the GSEs lose the litigation and pay Illinois, they might still be evading paying millions of dollars of state and local taxes due by operation of their servicing guidelines. The GSEs claim that when a loan defaults, the property is automatically transferred to the servicer, so that the servicer can foreclose in its own name (and Fannie and Freddie's names never appear, which would be bad for P.R.). It's not clear how this automatic transfer actually works–I don't know of any legal mechanism that blesses it, but maybe it can be brought into the scope of UCC Article 9 (other than in South Carolina). Irrepsective, in title theory states, the transfer might consistute a transfer of real estate, and thus be subject to taxation, even if the GSEs don't record a deed. If I'm right on this, there could be a lot more tax liability for the GSEs coming out of foreclosures.

I had seen Lisa mention servicers flipping properties to Fannie and Freddie, so I thought she might have some insight. This was her reply:

I'll put a list together now, there are about five flipping methods that are used by servicers. The flips go to securitized trusts or GSEs or in occasional instances, some shadowy entity or scratch-and-dent debt buyer.

I'll just send F/F examples of the following methods where I have them on hand.

In Florida, it is extremely commonplace for one bank to serve a family a foreclosure lawsuit and then during the case (whether contested or not) the foreclosure mill lawyers change the name of the financial institution from one to another. This changes the name of the bank who is foreclosing or who gets the title to the home from one bank to another.

There are five total ways that the name of the foreclosing bank gets changed in a Florida foreclosure lawsuit (have no idea about other judicial states or how this is accomplished in non-judicial states)

1. Start case in one bank name, motion to substitute party plaintiff
2. Start the case in one bank name, motion to correct the name of the foreclosing bank due to a "typo" (scriverners error) -
3. Start the case in one bank name, get foreclosure judgment, bid at auction & win or no other bids (win by default), assign that winning bid to another bank
4. Start the case in one bank name, get foreclosure judgment, assign that judgment and right to bid at auction to another bank
5. Start the case in one bank name, get foreclosure judgment, bid & win or no other bids at auction so win by default, get title to home, immediately or sometimes months/years later flip the title to another bank (Quit Claim deeds from one bank to another)

In little more than an hour, she sent an example of each of the five types. With each, she provided backup and some narrative: docket information, scanned copies of filings, links to appraisal (which show the name of the property owner), etc.

Scary. I'm a little embarrassed not to have posted her findings but she sent so much material that it would be daunting to get it all into ScribD and then explain it.

Fellow Palm Beach county resident and foreclosure fraud investigator Lynn Szymoniak gave some other reasons to prod anyone you know in Palm Beach County to go to the polls next Tuesday and vote for Lisa:

Lisa will work to hold the banks, mortgage servicers and MERS accountable for their destruction of property chain-of-title. Lisa will work to prevent the banks from claiming a homestead exemption long after the qualifying residents move out. She would prevent Fannie and Freddie from wrongly claiming tax exemptions….

Only one candidate – Lisa Epstein – has sat through hundreds of foreclosure hearings and trials and has spoken out about the abuses by the foreclosure mills.

Only one candidate – Lisa Epstein – has combed through the court files to expose sewer service, robo-signing, forgeries and MERS fraud.

Only one candidate – Lisa Epstein – has worked tirelessly to protect Palm Beach County homeowners and citizens.

Only Lisa has the support and respect of this country's most prominent and respected county recorders and court clerks because she has worked hard to earn that respect.

Lisa has also been endorsed by Alan Grayson and Neil Barofsky.

This is likely to be a low turnout race, so rousing the locals you know can tip the balance! Please forward this message and push your friends and relatives to vote in a race where their participation can make a difference.


Deflation: As Good As Gold?

Posted: 09 Aug 2012 10:36 PM PDT

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