Sunday, August 5, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Ron Paul's Last Attempt To Avoid Dollar Collapse

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 11:05 PM PDT

Hoard of Crusader Gold Found in Ruins

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 11:05 PM PDT

Charleston Voice


Buying The Summer Lows While Gold Bottoms

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 08:30 PM PDT

by Vin Maru, Gold Seek:

It is our firm belief that the precious metals sector has bottomed out and the downside is very limited from here on out. While there doesn't seem to be an immediate rush back into the sector, now is a great time to be acquiring physical metals, but more importantly producers with growth profiles. That's where we really see the value and upside potential. Now would be a good time to start adding and scaling into any new positions you plan on taking.

If we would have to make a speculative/educated guess/evaluation, by looking at the charts and fundamentals for precious metals and the miners, we believe that the worst is over. We are fairly certain that we have seen the bottom over this past summer and building a good position in the physical, ETFs, and select miners right now is looking very promising.

Support has pretty much held throughout the summer and it's looking good going into the fall. While we still may see one more down wave, it would be more of a fake breakdown below support just to scare the remaining weak hands. If that happens, I would think backing up the truck is a good idea, and start getting aggressive in adding exposure to the sector. Buying at support around $1570 is a good place to start adding to positions. Over the next few weeks we expect gold to trade around $1600 (+ or – $30) in a sideways trading range.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com


GATA secretary appears Tuesday on Russia Today's 'Capital Account' program

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:25 PM PDT

9:27p ET Saturday, August 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Your secretary/treasurer is scheduled to be interviewed about gold market manipulation on the Russia Today television network financial program "Capital Account with Lauren Lyster" live from Washington at 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, August 7.

The Russia Today network is carried by cable TV services around the world but those who don't have access to the network should be able to watch the program not long after its broadcast at the Russia Today Internet site --

http://rt.com/programs/capital-account/

-- and possibly on YouTube as well.

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed on the program on April 30:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moY6bzQ2lY0

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



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http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

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http://www.neworleansconference.com/

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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



2012: A Phelps Odyssey

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 06:46 PM PDT

The 2012 Olympics was shaping up as Ryan Lochte's breakout year, and in many respects it was. But more than anything, the London Olympics turned out to be the swan song of Michael Phelps, who hours ago completed his final Olympic event and retired from the sport of swimming where is now inducted in perpetuity into the swimming hall of fame with not only a record 18 Olympic gold medals, twice as many more as any other Olympian, in a career that stretches from Athens through Beijing and concludes with London, but a record 22 medals of all colors. What was Phelps final tally in the 2012 Olympics, how does that compare to Lochte's total, and how did the London Olympic swim times compare to Bejing? The infographic below will answer all questions.

Some more on Phelps' final blaze of glory in the pool.

 As if 22 medal ceremonies over the last three Olympics weren't enough, Michael Phelps was summoned back to the pool deck for one more accolade.

This time, he received a trophy rather than a medal, an award that sought to sum up a career like no other.

 

"To Michael Phelps," it said, "the greatest Olympic athlete of all time."

 

Too bad it was silver.

 

Gold was the only color for this guy.

 

In a final race that was more a coronation than a contest, Phelps headed into retirement the only way imaginable — with an 18th gold medal. Reclaiming the lead with his trademark butterfly stroke, the one seen in his Olympic debut as a 15-year-old in Sydney a dozen years ago, he capped off a mind-boggling career with a victory in the 4x100-meter medley relay Saturday.

 

"I've been able to do everything that I wanted," Phelps said.

 

When it was done, he hugged his teammates — Matt Grevers, Brendan Hansen and Nathan Adrian — before heading off the deck for the final time in his hip-hugging swimsuit. He waved to the crowd and smiled, clearly at peace with his decision to call it a career.

 

And what a career it was!

 

"I was able to really put the final cherry on top tonight, put all the whipped cream I wanted and sprinkles. I was able to top off the sundae," Phelps said. "It's been a great career. It's been a great journey. I can't be any more happy than I am."

 

Phelps retires with twice as many golds as any other Olympian, and his total of 22 medals is easily the best mark, too. He can be quite proud of his final Olympics as well, even though there were times he had trouble staying motivated after winning a record eight gold medals at the Beijing Games four years ago.

 

The 27-year-old could surely swim on for another Olympics, maybe two, but there's really no point.

 

"I told myself I never want to swim when I'm 30," Phelps said. "No offense to those people who are 30, but that was something I always said to myself, and that would be in three years. I just don't want to swim for those three years."

 

He hugged his longtime coach, Bob Bowman, who was teary eyed as he whispered three words that said it all, "I love you." Their partnership was formed 16 years ago, when Bowman took a gangly, hyperactive kid with an extraordinary gift and helped turn him into a swimmer the likes of which the world had never seen.

 

"Bob and I have somehow managed to do every single thing," Phelps said. "If you can say that about your career, there's no need to move forward. Time for other things."

 

Bouncing back from a disappointing first race in London, a fourth-place finish in the 400 individual medley, Phelps wound up with more medals than any other swimmer at the games: four golds and two silvers.

 

Sounds familiar.

 

"Honestly, the first race kind of took the pressure off," Bowman said. "If it's not going to go too well, we should at least have fun while we're here. That helped us relax a little bit, then he started swimming well in the relays and he picked it up again."

 

Grevers had the Americans in front on the opening backstroke leg, but Kosuke Kitajima put Japan slightly ahead going against Hansen in the breaststroke. Not to worry, not with Phelps going next.

 

He surged through the water in the fly, handing off a lead of about a quarter of a second to Adrian for the freesytle anchor. The Americans won going away in 3 minutes, 29.35 seconds, just off their own Olympic record from Beijing. Japan held on for silver in 3:31.26, with Australia taking the bronze in 3:31.68.

 

The U.S. men had never lost the medley relay at the Olympics, and they weren't about to now on the final night of swimming at the Olympic Aquatics Centre, on the final night for such a momentous athlete.

 

How momentous? The governing body of swimming, FINA, broke with Olympic protocol to present Phelps with an award recognizing his entire body of work. While a video montage played on the board, he made one more victory lap around the pool, even stopping off again at the medal podium he spent so much time on during the Olympics.

"Wow," he said. "I couldn't ask to finish on a better note."

Read more here.

We can only hope that unlike Lance Armstrong's retroactive humiliation, that no discoveries are made in the future regarding "collocated" stimulants, which detract from what has otherwise been a spectacular athletic lifetime achievement.


Completely Fabricated Jobs Report/All bourses in the green/risk off trading

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 06:30 PM PDT

by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.ca:

Gold closed up today by $19.30 to finish the comex session at $1606. Silver finished up by 81 cents to $27.79. Gold was immediately smashed on news that the USA had a good jobs number. However, with Europe solidly in the green and with Spanish and Italian 10 yr yields down, gold and silver took off along with the Dow.Europe decided on Friday, that maybe Draghi will get to orchestrate his ESM banking license.

It never ceases to amaze me the total manipulation in these markets and the press just look the other way. The key events to watch for will be the 20th of August, when Greece is scheduled to repay 3.2 billion euros back to the ECB from the ESFS. No doubt the ESFS will lend the money to repay the ECB. They may decide to forgo this and immediately default and issue drachmas. If the money is forked over,
then Greece has enough money to keep them going until the beginning of September and at that point, they will probably leave and the drachma will then be reinstituted. So we are just marking time. The USA jobs number released at 8:30 this morning was nothing but a farce. We will outline to you why. Before delving into those stories, let us head over to the comex and assess trading today.

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.ca


Surf?s Up: Here?s Specific Suggestions on How to Ride the Coming Wave of Higher Gold Prices

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 05:17 PM PDT

By looking at the charts and fundamentals for precious metals and the miners it is our firm belief that the precious metals sector has bottomed out and the downside is very limited from here on out. While there doesn't seem to be an immediate rush back into the sector we believe that the worst is over and that now is a great time to be acquiring physical metals and,*more importantly, producers with growth profiles. That's where we really see the value and upside potential. [Let*us provide you with a specific course of action.] Words: 792 So says Vin Maru ([url]www.tdvgoldentrader.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his original article.* [INDENT] Lorimer Wilson, editor of [B][COLOR=#0000ff]www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor's Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avo...


Low Paying Job? CNN Says Get Used To It.

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 05:15 PM PDT

from Silver Vigilante:

Low paying jobs, production of useless commodities – the new economy offers workers an opportunity to walk away from their low-paying, unfulfilling jobs to live free as entrepreneurs. It is virtually a condition of the economic depression, as increasing workers find themselves out of work or not making enough. Why work for meager wages when you can, with tools like the internet, begin making similar amounts of money as you were before, on your own. With ad revenue, for example, you can be making the same as before – what, $8 an hour – with less work. By producing for ourselves, we no longer sacrifice our own self-improvement for the enrichment of other people. I am not saying there is something wrong with working for others, although I view the hourly wage as degrading and reserved for slaves. What I am however saying is that, as news of a poor labor market grows increasing acute over time, employers will use this condition to justify not paying there workers. You might hear refrains, such as "where else would you make this kind of money?" When, in reality, you are living paycheck to paycheck. The amount of raises workers can expect in the long-term are set to decline as well, as a condition of the current depression paradigm.

Just like we have the opportunity to drain the global banking complex of capital via old world money like precious metals and new world money like digital currencies, we can starve employers of their capital, our labor. Yes, things still need to be produced. Yes, the current infrastructure is likely to be needed in order to produce. But, why not assert the laborers power not with a boycott, asking for higher wages and our old jobs, but by a pro-active immersion into a parallel economy in which we ourselves become the producers of whatever we want/need.

Read More @ Silver Vigilante


In The News Today

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 03:52 PM PDT

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

This is a spoof, but you should listen to it.

It has worked so perfectly that I doubt our intelligence service could have invented it. However, what a great gift to the entire international intelligence world.

Gold to Rally Above $1,900 by End 2012: HSBC Published: Friday,

Continue reading In The News Today


This Is The Next Destructive Move By Central Planners

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 03:48 PM PDT

King World News is continuing to receive extraordinary levels of interest in what has turned into a series of Michael Pento pieces. Today Pento warns, "The developed world's central banks are now foolishly preparing for a full assault on their respective currencies in an attempt to lower unemployment rates."

Pento also issued this dire prediction, "What we will see going forward is a chronically weak currency, intractable inflation, onerous tax rates, a sovereign debt crisis and a depressionary economy." Because of this threat, Pento strongly urges, "... the allocation in your portfolio towards ownership of gold has now become mandatory."

Today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, writes exclusively for King World News to put global readers ahead of the curve, once again, on what is unfolding as a result of the major unprecedented moves by central banks. Here is Pento's piece: "The developed world's central banks are now foolishly preparing for a full assault on their respective currencies in an attempt to lower unemployment rates. Spurring these central bankers into action is persistently anemic markets and employment data, which they believe can be rectified by creating inflation."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 12:09 PM PDT

There has been much confusion over last week's remarks by Mario Draghi, with the prevailing narrative being that the market first got what Draghi meant wrong (when it plunged), then right (when it soared). The confusion is further granulated by attempts to explain what was merely a desperate attempt at delaying a decision for action, which was inevitable considering the now open opposition by Buba's Weidmann, into a formal and planned plotline: "Inverse Twist" or other such technical jargon is what we have seen floating around. The reality is that, just like all other central bankers, Draghi did what he does best: use big words and threats of action in hope it will buy him a few extra days of time. The reality is also that, just like when the LTRO was announced, the market did get it right initially, when peripheral bonds plunged, and got it wrong over the subsequent 3 months when bond prices rose, only to collapse to new lows (and in the case of Spain - record high yields as of two weeks ago). Back then, the ECB merely bought a few months time with its transitory intervention. This time it has at best bought a few days with the lack of any actual action. And yet, Draghi did leave a way out, for at least another brief respite (where unless Europe expands the available bailout machinery yet again, the respite will have an even briefer half life than that from the LTROs). The way out is simple, and in order to avoid any confusion, we will use an allegory from the movie Batman: Spain and Italy can be saved. But first they must be destroyed.

Why? Because the market may or may note have gotten the desired knee jerk response right - higher - eventually, but what it got absolutely wrong is the fact that in the new normal, attempts to front-run politicians, whose motivations are entirely different from those of the market, are always and without fail self-defeating. In other words, by sending the Spanish and Italian curve short-ends soaring (and yields tumbling), the market just made the only catalyst that would validate the kind of response to Draghi's comment that we witnessed in a few short trading hours, meaningless.

We have already explained why on numerous occasions, so instead we will hand it over to Citi's head Euroearea economist Jurgen Michels, who explains it so simply, even a caveman vacuum tube can get it:

In order to activate the ECB's new facility, Spain and Italy have to ask the EFSF for assistance, and the Eurogroup (backed by the German parliament) has to approve the request....Mr. Draghi was very explicit in respect to the conditions for ECB assistance for governments in bond markets, but Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy and Italian PM Mario Monti ignored that part of the ECB statement.

 

While Mr. Monti, as before, left open whether Italy would requeEFSF/ESM assistance, Mr. Rajoy, also in line with previous statements, declined tostate that Spain would ask for such assistance.

 

To us, this is another example of the Spanish government's poor communication, and highlights the need to restore credibility by getting external monitoring (at least from the EU Commission and the ECB, probably with technical assistance from the IMF).  Given the strong resistance of the Spanish government to asking the EFSF/ESM to activate the primary market purchase facility — although a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the required conditionality is already available with the existing bank support programme — and with no planned issuance in coming weeks, we do not expect that Spain will ask for assistance in August.

 

Forced by a further increase in its funding costs, we expect the Spanish government to make a U-turn and to ask for assistance during September.

And what is true for Spain, is true for its far bigger, and just as financially distressed cousin, Italy.

Therein lies the rub: by pushing the funding costs on the short-end far cheaper, both Rajoy and Monti are now certain to not even consider asking for a bailout - after all the market just validated their failed policies (or so they think)! To the career politician and unappointed technocrat, instead of having to ask for aid, the market's response is one which precludes said aid request... Until, at least such time as the market realizes it was once again manipulated by politicians.

What happens then is the same rinse-repeat cycle we have grown to hate and loathe so well: the Spanish and Italian curves go bidless, in the process inverting once again, followed by the same summit/ECB announcement response with promises that both Spain and Italy will demand a bailout, sending bonds soaring, and making a bailout demand unnecessary.

Of course, this Catch 22 of confounding cause and event can continue seemingly indefinitely, although in reality it can't. Because fundamentally what the bond market does is keep sovereigns "honest" - just as Schauble said a week ago, Spanish yields at 7% are not the end of the world - instead what they are is a signal to the country to get its spending in control in order to reduce its deficit, and fundamentally get its house in order - yes, that means getting government spending to a sustainable level and firing hundreds of thousands of workers, as well as probably raising taxes even more. It also means pain all around, but the pain is inevitable and will only be worse the longer reality is denied.

Thus all the ECB does, with every incremental attempt to manipulate the bond curve, is delay the day when the inevitable hard choices and difficult decisions have to be made. In the process, the deficit gets bigger and bigger, even as the country can still continue to fund itself at seemingly sustainable rates (very soon both Italy and Spain will be forced to keep rolling its debt every several months as anything beyond Bills will be trading at ridiculous rates, while the short-end will be anchored by fears of more brutal Draghi rhetoric). All this comes to a head eventually when the spread between reality and central bank ivory towers becomes so wide not even the most Stockholm Syndrome-addled bond "vigilantes" can continue to ignore it any longer.

As noted previously, there is a simple loophole: both Spain and Italy request a formal bailout, i.e. Gotham Burns. Here is how Citi views this outcome:

"In order to make it politically digestible, the request for EFSF/ESM aid might come together with a cabinet re-shuffle."

Here we completely disagree - the issue is that by formally admitting failure, it means the end for the current administrations, and a career end of many politicians, for whom preserving their jobs is a matter of survival. It also means civil unrest and disobedience, as it means the ascent of the Troika (and implicitly Germany) to the highest level of government control; what it means to the local citizens is one simple thing: relinquishing sovereign control to an external presence. For those who are unfamiliar with European history, the best laid plans which have as their weakest link the assumption that any proud people will willingly cede to foreign control, always are doomed to failure.

Yet this is precisely what the bond market assumed when it sent Spanish and Italian bond yields plunging in the past week.

We give what is left of the market a few more days before the delayed correct re-reaction once again establishes itself, and the push for a formal bailout leads to curve inversion all over again, only this time more jawboning will not be enough, and neither will be Draghi's solemn invocation to "believe him." That bridge has now been burned.

* * *

Finally it is not just the above logic that leads us to this belief. The previously mentioned Jurgen Michels from Citi lays out all the other "weakest links" in what Draghi may or may not have said.

Below we present Michels' latest musings on why, much to the chagrin of all those who are long peripheral bonds on hope and prayer, the market's initial selloff reaction to the Draghi statement was in fact the correct one.

From Citi:

Uncertainty about ECB Measures and Activation of EFSF/ESM Support Mechanism

 

ECB Council supports Draghi's statement on irreversibility of the euro...

 

By saying that "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough," in his speech in London on July 261, Mario Draghi created a big market rally and puzzled many observers, including us, about the reasons for that speech. In the ECB press conference, he said that he deliberately used the strong wording to highlight the irreversibility of the euro and added that "there was not one word [in the London speech] that has not been discussed with the Council before". While not using the same strong language as in Draghi's London speech, the unanimously supported ECB August statement says "Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible."

 

but Bundesbank is against the extension of bond purchases, even conditional ones

 

Predictably Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann opposed the Governing Council statement that "The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfillment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures." In the Q&A session President Draghi explicitly said that governments have to go to the EFSF/ESM first (necessary condition) before the ECB would consider using the new facility, but stressed that being under an EFSF/ESM programme is not sufficient (ECB independence).

 

ECB managed to find a face-saving way to continue sovereign bond purchases

 

With this kind of conditionality the ECB found a face-saving way to continue its support. After setting up the SMP in May 2010, the ECB used it as a bridge to support bond markets (mainly Greece) until the EFSF became fully operational. And the re-activation of the SMP programme for Italy and Spain in August 2011 came after euro area governments agreed to expand the EFSF tools with primary and secondary market purchase facilities. Once the new facilities were operational, at the end of November 2011, the ECB reduced its purchases substantially (see Figure 3). Since then, ECB officials have stressed the need to activate the EFSF to address the countries' high funding costs. By announcing the new facility at the August Council meeting, the ECB can continue with the purchases based on countries' meeting the conditions required under the EFSF/ESM programmes.

 

 

Spain (in particular) and Italy not ready to ask for EFSF/ESM assistance quickly

 

Mr. Draghi was very explicit in respect to the conditions for ECB assistance for governments in bond markets, but Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy and Italian PM Mario Monti ignored that part of the ECB statement. In their remarks at a press conference after the ECB meeting, the Spanish and Italian PMs focused only on the point that the ECB regards the current bond market prices of their countries as unacceptable.3 While Mr. Monti, as before, left open whether Italy would request EFSF/ESM assistance, Mr. Rajoy, also in line with previous statements, declined tostate that Spain would ask for such assistance. To us, this is another example of the Spanish government's poor communication, and highlights the need to restore credibility by getting external monitoring (at least from the EU Commission and the ECB, probably with technical assistance from the IMF).  Given the strong resistance of the Spanish government to asking the EFSF/ESM to activate the primary market purchase facility — although a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the required conditionality is already available with the existing bank support programme — and with no planned issuance in coming weeks, we do not expect that Spain will ask for assistance in August. But, probably forced by a further increase in its funding costs, we expect the Spanish government to make a U-turn and to ask for assistance during September. The statements by PM Rajoy suggest that the government is moving slowly in that direction. In order to make it politically digestible, the request for EFSF/ESM aid might come together with a cabinet re-shuffle.

 

German government also has no interest in activation of additional EFSF packages in August

 

Spain and Italy are unlikely to be the only countries holding back any quick activation of the EFSF's primary bond purchase facility. In our view the German government has no interest in pushing Spain and Italy under EFSF programmes quickly for two reasons. First, after calling back all Bundestag MPs from their holiday to approve the Spanish bank bailout package, calling the MPs back for a second time during the summer to approve a Spanish (and maybe Italian) EFSF package would be seen as poor crisis management by Merkel. Second, an activation of additional EFSF measures before the interim verdict of the German constitutional court on September 12 on German participation in the ESM could increase the chance of the court saying that Germany cannot participate in the ESM, until the court makes its final decision, which probably will take another couple of months.

 

ECB has to provide details of the CGBPP

 

In addition to requests from Spain and Italy, and approval by the Eurogroup, the ECB has also to set up the details of the Conditional Government Bond Purchase Programme (CGBPP), for which the ECB's risk, market and monetary policy committees will make proposals. So far, we learned from Mr. Draghi only that the CGBPP would be transparent in respect to countries and amounts. He also said that the secondary market purchases would focus on the shorter end of the yield curve. The ECB has to address the question of sterilization, with which we expect (unless there is a complete U-turn in respect to risks of deflation) the ECB will continue, but probably with longer dated, ECB bills rather than one-week term deposits. In our view the key questions from investors will be 1) how large is the ECB package is (what does the ECB understand by "adequate"?), 2) over what time frame the purchases will be conducted and 3) if the ECB will pre-announce the targeted size of the purchases at the beginning of the programme. Another big unknown is how the ECB wants to address investors' concerns on the ECB's de-facto seniority status.

 

EFSF/ESM and ECB purchases have at least to match gross debt issuance in order not to disappoint markets

 

To us, the minimum for an adequately sized bond market support facility, in order not to completely disappoint markets, has to be the full amount of a State's planned gross bond issuance. While we do not have a financial assistance facility agreement for the ESM, such an agreement exists for the EFSF. According to this, while exceptions are possible, the EFSF can generally purchase no more than 50% of the targeted issuance at an auction. Based on this amount of EFSF (and probably ESM) primary market purchases, the ECB would then have to purchase at least the same amount of bonds in the secondary market, probably concentrated around auctions.

 

Spanish sovereign funding requirement for remainder of 2012 would probably require an increase in the size of the existing bailout programme

 

To be concrete, based on our calculations of the public deficit — assuming that the deficit is equally distributed over the year — and assuming that Spain remains able roll over its treasury bills, the total funding requirement for the remainder of 2012 is around €92bn. This would mean that, of the existing €100bn programme, the funds of around €35bn to €40bn currently not earmarked for bank-recapitalization would not even be enough to cover 50% of the targeted auction volume up to the end of the year. We consider that to assume that there will be any unused funds from the bank bailout programme is anyway very optimistic. As a consequence, there has to be an immediate extension of the size of the Spanish programme, which probably will increase the hurdles for Spain and Germany to agree to such a programme, or the ECB has to become willing to buy a larger amount in the secondary market than the EFSF would do in the primary market.

We hope by this point readers realize why the market was very correct in its initial selling response... But let's continue onward to our favorite, and Europe's most hated, topic: math.

Spain and Italy would require around €700bn of support for a two-year support programme

 

The market will likely be disappointed by a purchase programme up to the end of 2012 only. We think that it will require at least a programme for one year (end 2Q 2013) or better for two years (end 2Q 2014) to make investors feel more comfortable. For Spain, a programme matching the full debt issuance for one year would have to have a volume of around €177bn for one year and €306bn for two years. Italy (also assuming that the programme starts immediately) would require a volume of €197bn for one year programme and €397bn for two years (see Figure 4). So both countries under programmes for two years would require funds as large as €703bn, which would have to be covered by the EFSF/ESM and the ECB, as in our view the IMF is unlikely to participate in such bond support programmes.

 

And so we finally get back to the crux of the issue, and to the Deja Vu topic of just where the money to fund Europe will come from. Recall that the EFSF leverage, to get it to €1 trillion, was the sticking point of European hollow promises in September of 2011. That entire line of thinking promptly disappeared after it was made very clear that not only can such a structured vehicle ever be completed, but that there is nowhere to fund said vehicle from. In other words Europe still needs between €700 billion (just for Spain and Italy) and €1 trillion to prefund itself for two years. This is an issue that will not go away on its own if people simply close their eyes. All Europe has done now is to shift the rhetoric to one where the ECB may, potentially, if Germany ever agrees to it, pay for some of the prefunding fees, even as the final invoice still says €1 trillion give or take. So far Germany has not agreed to anything and will not until Spain and Italy admit, loud and clear to everyone, they are broke, in the process allowing Germany to slowly commence establishing sovereign oversight.

Which in turn brings us back to square one.

If the ECB takes half of the bond purchases, the EFSF/ ESM would be able to support Italy and Spain for 2 years, but not much longer

 

The maximum combined lending capacity of the EFSF and the ESM (assuming it gets the green light from the German constitutional court on September 12) is only €700bn and out of this, €192bn have been already committed to the existing programmes for Greece, Ireland and Portugal and around €65bn to recapitalize Spanish banks. Furthermore, around €10bn will be probably needed for a Cyprus Programme, which is likely to proceed in September (see Figure 2 on the front page). Ignoring the need for further funding for Ireland and Portugal, which in our view are likely to request second bailout programmes, and a smaller use of the Greek programme (as the Troika in our view is likely to halt the programme soon) this would leave the EFSF/ESM with a lending capacity of around €433bn. This would be large enough to cover 50% of the expected €703bn of gross bond issuance of the Spanish and Italian sovereign, but is unlikely to last for much longer. This would mean that the size of an ECB CGBPP for Spain and Italy would be at least around €350bn, but in order not to exhaust the EFSF/ESM completely in a short period of time, the CGBPP probably has to be larger.

Going back to our favorite topic: subordination - Citi once again makes it all too clear that any suggestions by wild eyed optimists that the ECB, or any other rescue mechanism, can ever be pari passu with existing sovereign debt, is idiotic.

Difficult to change the ECB's de-facto seniority status

 

After setting a precedent in the Greek PSI that Eurosystem government bond holdings purchased under the SMP are senior to the existing bondholders, it will be very difficult to change that perception. Around the Greek PSI, ECB officials said that they would not be part of the private sector that was covered by the PSI. Even if the ECB participated fully in a second Greek restructuring programme, or unilaterally accepted haircuts on its Greek bonds, it would not change the fact that in a first round of debt restructuring the ECB was not pari passu. To us it is hard to believe, that the market would lose these fears, if the ECB puts a new name on the programme — CGBPP instead of SMP — without becoming more explicit on its seniority status. Even in the case that the ECB explicitly said that it would be pari passu with existing bond holders — which the ECB's risk committee would probably try to prevent — it is uncertain if the market would accept this. The market has learned that while the euro area member states accepted quite a substantial reduction in the NPV of the bilateral loans to Greece (through interest rate reductions and maturity extension) the bilateral loans did not get the haircut of the outstanding volume of the liabilities that the existing bond holders did in the PSI. By giving up its de-facto senior status, the ECB probably will get more criticism from creditor countries like Finland and Germany.

Finally, the ECB lawsuits begin.

Question of time before ECB is before the ECJ for bond purchases

 

Particularly in Germany the criticism by politicians and the media of the ECB has increased substantially since Mr. Draghi's London speech. Former ECB Executive Board Member Jürgen Stark stressed in a radio interview on July 31 that it would be difficult to distinguish between primary and secondary bond purchases. In his view the SMP purchases had the only target of reducing the funding costs of the periphery sovereigns, which was a contribution to prohibited sovereign funding. Mr. Stark added that, at least for the last two years, the ECB has breached the EU treaties, but that so-far no one has brought the issue to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). While we do not expect that the German government, which is unlikely to comment much on the ECB's new bond buying plans, will follow the advice of some FDP politicians to bring the ECB to the ECJ for breaching Article 123 of the TFEU, to us it is just a question of time before such a complaint is made. A recent article published by the newspaper Die Welt provided a guideline on how to bring the ECB to the ECJ or the German constitutional court.

Ultimately the question is how long will the German people agree to an open-ended rescue fund sourced primarily by Germans. If the recent pick up in media rhetoric is any indication - not long.

German parliament has to approve Government decision in respect to ESM

 

Based on German national law, the Bundestag (at least through a 9-MP sub-group) has to be involved in ESM decisions, meaning that the German representatives in the ESM Board of Governors have to vote "no", unless they have specific Bundestag approval. So far, there has always been a broad majority in the German parliament for government proposals in respect of the Euro area rescue mechanisms. In our view this is no longer assured. The first big test of Germany's willingness to do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro" will probably be the change in the number of ESM instruments (Article 19 of ESM Treaty), which would empower the ESM to recapitalize banks directly. As the SPD wants to have much stricter conditions for giving the ESM the right to recapitalize banks directly as foreseen in the June 29 Summit agreement (single bank supervisor established), they probably will not agree to a change in the tool box.

 

SPD and Greens are open to give ESM right to get funding from the ECB

 

In the ECB funding-related and ESM leverage-related questions, the SPD and the Greens probably will be in favor of giving the ESM additional rights, because they want to introduce a system that makes the rescue mechanism larger and more transparent. As Jürgen Trittin, the head of the Greens' parliamentary group in the Bundestag, regards a leveraged ESM as an alternative to their preferred option of a Debt Redem


Gold and Silver Continue Marking Time

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 11:00 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Both Gold and Silver remain in consolidation patterns with tightening ranges as speculative HOT money flows which are exiting are being met by value-based buying and accumulation by stronger hands. The loss of speculative interest in the precious metals over the last few months can be seen by the steady decline in overall open interest (the number of contracts open). Generally speaking, whenever speculators are interested in establishing positions in a particular market, the open interest will rise. When they are not, the open interest will fall. Look at the following open interest chart of gold and tell me which of the two above-mentioned possibilities is occuring? Answer - speculative interest has been drying up in the gold market. The reason for this is simple - the hot money crowd has no clear conviction as to whether or not the two big Central Banks of the West are going to move forw...


BULLS HAVE 3 WEEKS LEFT

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 10:45 AM PDT

3 weeks, that's how long the bulls have left before stocks roll over and begin the next intermediate degree decline. That being said, the next 2-3 weeks should yield some very healthy gains in virtually all asset classes. Why is that you wonder? Well, it's because the dollar has begun moving down into an intermediate degree correction which will, in the next few weeks, fuel the 'risk-on' trade.

As of Friday the dollar was on the 11th day of its current daily cycle. The normal duration of a the dollar index daily cycle is 18 to 28 days, with the average being about 23 or 24 days. This suggests that the dollar should bottom somewhere around August 21st or 22nd. As you can see in the chart below whenever the dollar moves down into an intermediate degree trough it generates strong gains in asset prices.



What follows, once the dollar bottoms and its next intermediate degree rally begins,  is not going to be pretty. Stocks are going to start to struggle and ultimately move down hard in September and probably October if the Fed doesn't unleash QE3 at the September FOMC meeting.  


By the end of August and certainly by the time we get into September the markets are going to call the central bankers bluff, and it is going to take more than words and the threat of quantitative easing to keep asset prices propped up.


I have covered the rest of the forecast in depth in the weekend report available to premium subscribers.


I will again offer the $1 two day trial subscription to traders that would like to sample the premium newsletter. If you decide you would like to continue having access to the daily and weekend newsletter after the two day trial, it will automatically convert to a monthly subscription when your two day trial expires. 
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Gold and Phony Market Action

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 10:37 AM PDT

The wiseguys would like to take the equity markets up a little higher in order to short them. The problem they are facing is that most of the non-professionals are sitting this action out. The metals markets are meaningless in the short term, given the corruption in the trade that pushes prices around the plate without any respect to genuine price discovery.


General Outlook for Gold and the Mining Stocks

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 10:12 AM PDT

General Outlook for Gold and the Miners - It is our firm belief that the precious metals sector has bottomed out and the downside is very limited from here on out.  While there doesn’t seem to be an immediate rush back into the sector, now is a great time to be acquiring physical metals, but more importantly producers with growth profiles. That’s where we really see the value and upside potential.  Now would be a good time to start adding and scaling into any new positions you plan on taking.


ECB Saves Greece From Certain Bankruptcy. Again

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 09:09 AM PDT

A few days ago we wrote that "Greece Runs Out Of Money. Again" because it did. The country, which is permanently locked out of the bond markets, would be down to a negative cash balance as soon as its August bond payment to the ECB was made. The reason is that the Troika continues to delay its decision. whether or not to hand over Greece its next monthly allowance. So with the country threatening to once again be on the front page as math rears its ugly head, the ECB has decided to take the bold step and admit that in lieu of even remotely credible collateral pledged and repledged in the ponzi repo system, the ECB has no choice but to expand the universe of eligible "collateral" against which it will provide cash. From Reuters: "The ECB's Governing Council agreed at its meeting on Thursday to increase the upper limit for the amount of Greek short-term loans the Bank of Greece can accept in exchange for emergency loans, the newspaper said in an advance copy of the article due to appear in its Saturday edition."

As a reminder, on July 20 the ECB pretended to act in a prudent fiduciary capacity and halted the acceptance of worthless Greek bonds as eligible ECB collateral. Naturally, this was merely an epic case of sweeping under the rug, because bonds eligible for traditional collateral had already ran out, even as the ECB greenlighted the continued provisioning of funding via the Emergency Liquidity Assistance, or ELA, in which the pathway of repledging a liability as a money good asset took on one extra step by using a national central bank as an unnecessary intermediary. The reason: merely to obfuscate the fact that actual money good collateral, and by implication, assets, no longer exist, allowing the Eurosystem to accept more and more worthless "assets" in exchange for frashly printed euros.

This is precisely what just happened:

Until now the Bank of Greece could only accept T-Bills up to a limit of 3 billion euros ($3.70 billion) as collateral for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) but it has applied to have this limit increased to 7 billion euros, the daily said, citing central bank sources.

 

The ECB Governing Council gave this wish the green light, the paper said.

 

The move should enable the Greek government to access up to an extra 4 billion euros of funds, the paper said, adding that this should ensure the country keeps its head above water until the "troika" of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund decide on the disbursement of the next tranche of money from its aid program in September.

So does this step-wise increase in the pool of eligible collateral mean that eventually each peripheral country will run out of assets pledgable for cash (which in turn is used to pay interest to the ECB and various other "Official" institutions)? Yes, at least under the current regime. Because when all possible assets that Greece has have been handed over to the ECB for safekeeping just so the country is "allowed" to stay in the Euro and continue to pay its institutional interest, all the while allowing for "privatization" asset sales to take place for various Western banks.

Sadly, even if the ECB were to lower it eligible collateral threshold to zero, the fun will eventually end in a world of finite assets, because while one can print electronic money with the push of a button, an "asset" by implication takes at least some effort, and cost to create.

This is just what we explained back in May, when we quantified just how much borrowing capacity unde rthe ELA Greece, which is now less than a shell of a real economy, truly has.

From Quantifying The Plan Z Dry Powder - This Is The Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity

We already posted a full run down from JPM on what the immediate costs from a Greek EMU exit would be (starting at €400 billion and going higher), but one point that bears repeating is just how much borrowing capacity Greece has under the ELA in the aftermath of today's news that the ECB is leaving Greek banks to fend for themselves until such time as the Greek recapitalization payment is wired over to Greece, which the ECB has defined simply as "soon." The answer: woefully inadequate, and certainly not enough to backstop the remaining Greek deposits of €170 billion as of the end of March (likely far less now), at €65 billion. And that's an upside estimate: as JPM says "The true maximum amount that Greek banks can borrow via ELA is likely though to be significantly smaller because not all loans are accepted as collateral via ELA." Remember: this is all just one giant game of chicken - Greece's Syriza has bet the farm that the cost from a Greek fallout is just too big to Europe and the terms of the hated "Memorandum" will be adjusted, while to Europe, on the other hand, the outcome to Greece, at least according to Europe and the IIF's Dallara will be "between catastrophic and armageddon." So... Who blinks first?

From JPM:

Greek banks have run out of ECB eligible collateral already and can only access Bank of Greece's ELA, but even with ELA, the collateral,typically loans, is not unlimited. They have already borrowed €60bn via ELA which, assuming 50% haircut corresponds to around €120bn of loan collateral. Outstanding loans are €250bn, so Greek banks have a maximum of €130bn of remaining loan collateral which allows for a maximum of €65bn of additional borrowing from Bank of Greece's ELA. This corresponds to around 40% of Greek bank deposits which stood at €170bn as of the end of March. The true maximum amount that Greek banks can borrow via ELA is likely though to be significantly smaller because not all loans are accepted as collateral via ELA. The alternative is for Greek banks to be allowed to issue more government guaranteed paper but the ECB can, with a 2/3rd majority, block a steep and unsustainable increase in Bank of Greece's ELA. This would effectively cut Bank of Greece off from TARGET2.

Once TARGET2 starts unwinding, with a massive €644 billion claim on the Eurosystem by the Bundesbank, and the realization that an imploding heretofore "contingent" and suddenly all too real liability amounting to 25% of German GDP means an in-kind collapse in living standards, then the simmering German anger will go truly parabolic.


Bullion banks shedding shorts ahead of price explosion, Turd Ferguson says

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 08:58 AM PDT

10:58a ET Saturday, August 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed for GoldMoney by the economist Alasdair Macleod, gold and silver market letter writer Turd Ferguson remarks that recent declines in gold and silver have been manufactured to help relieve bullion banks of their short positions, a development he thinks will soon will lead to an explosion in prices. While recommending continuing acquisition of the monetary metals -- real metal in hand -- Ferguson warns against short-term trading in the metals because their markets are so manipulated. Ferguson believes that "the great Keynesian experiment" in fiat money is ending and will be replaced with some form of gold backing for currencies. The interview is 27 minutes long and is posted in audio format at GoldMoney here:

http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/turd-ferguson-and-alasdair-macleod-on-t...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Gold in backwardation and about to soar, Turk tells King World News

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 08:21 AM PDT

10:19a ET Saturday, August 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News that gold is in backwardation and probably about to soar amid an environment of interest rate manipulation by central banks. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/3_Tur...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



GGR finds confirmation of gold's rally in 'managed money' short covering

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:03 AM PDT

9a ET Saturday, August 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Analyzing gold futures market data, the got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg finds confirmation that short covering by "managed money" was responsible for last week's rise in the the gold price, fulfilling his prediction from the last GGR:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/08/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-r...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



American Liberalism: The Infantile Disorder

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 05:37 AM PDT

 

"The approach of a great storm was sensed everywhere. All classes were in a state of ferment and preparation. Abroad, the press of the political exiles discussed the theoretical aspects of all the fundamental problems of the revolution. Representatives of the three main classes, of the three principal political trends -- the liberal-bourgeois, the petty-bourgeois-democratic (concealed behind "social-democratic" and "social-revolutionary" labels), and the proletarian-revolutionary -- anticipated and prepared the impending open class struggle by waging a most bitter struggle on issues of programme and tactics. All the issues on which the masses waged an armed struggle in 1905-07 and 1917-20 can (and should) be studied, in their embryonic form, in the press of the period. Among these three main trends there were, of course, a host of intermediate, transitional or half-hearted forms. It would be more correct to say that those political and ideological trends which were genuinely of a class nature crystallised in the struggle of press organs, parties, factions and groups; the classes were forging the requisite political and ideological weapons for the impending battles."

 

The years of preparation for revolution (1903-05) 

Left-Wing Communism: an Infantile

Disorder

V.I. Lenin

April-May, 1920

 

Grand Lake Stream, ME:  Had good fishing yesterday even as temperatures rose steadily as the group converged on Leens Lodge for evening activities.  Dinner last night featured a brief presentation by ME Governor Paul LePage and also a discussion of Weimar Germany by Madeline Schnapp of Trim Tabs.  The two discussions were good complements for the larger evening discussion.  But sad to say for Persian Economists, there were no Power Point presentations.

 

Governor LePage started his discussion with a very frank appraisal of the state's fiscal situation, namely that the Democrats spent and stole the state broke.  Voters in ME recently gave control over the governor's office and both houses of the state legislature to the Republican Party.   Suffice to say that the main theme of Governor LePage's comments to the audience at Leens Lodge, which included a number of advisers who own the state's debt, is that the State of Maine is going to pay its bills and keep its promises.

 

One interesting part of the Governor's remarks involved how ME is clearing up the many years of arrears of Medicare payments to hospitals around the state.  He noted thatthe Democrats in the legislature wanted to "negotiate" a settlement for the arrears of 50 cents on the dollar with the state's hospitals, which would doom many of them to failure.  The consistent objective of American liberals is to destroy the free enterprise system and make the US a monolithic socialist state a la France.  That battle is underway in ME right now.  

 

Contrary to the Fabian scenario, Governor LePage has insisted on paying the hospitals in full.  "Then we can spend money on other things," he told the audience.  But more to the point, LePage's promise to pay the hospitals will thwart Democratic designs to decimate private health care institutions and drive more and more Mainiacs into the arms of the state.  But don't look for Governor Le Page or anyone in the northern part of ME to go along quietly. 

 

The evening discussion was set up by Madeline Schnapp, who provided a brief but entirely chilling review of the financial stairway to hell of hyper-inflation in Weimar Germany.  In an extraordinary and succinct discussion, Madeline talked about the timing and duration of the appearance of different denominations of paper money used in the Weimar period.  Suffice to say that as the paper lost value, the printing became less and less attractive.  

 

From the start of WWI in 1914 through until 1923, the cost of a loaf of bread went from 0.10 Deutsche marks to 1 trillion marks in December 1923.  The hyperinflation in Weimar Germany, Schnapp noted, wiped out all of the accumulated wealth and savings of the German middle class and left most of the population in poverty.  Attendees at the dinner received examples of Weimar money and a brief presentation showing the rate of inflation during the Weimar inflation.

 

The juxtaposition of Paul LePage and his battle against the downstate, apartment dwelling socialists over spending and debt, and then Schnapp's reminder about the death of money in Weimar Germany is a powerful pairing.  At the start of 1924, let us recall, Germany wiped out all existing financial assets and introduced a new currency back with real estate and other tangible assets.  When Paul Krugman and his ilk talk about the need for more deficit spending, more fiscal stimuli, they are taking you down the road to Weimar America.  There is nothing at the end of Paul Krugman's road to borrow and spend save national destruction and personal disaster.  

 

On Monday this scribe will be taking the Bat mobile to Chautauqua, NY, to give a talk on Tuesday evening regarding the morality of regulation in America -- or perhaps the lack thereof.  In an age when the entire framework of left wing liberalism, "the infantile disorder" to paraphrase V.I. Lenin, lies in tatters, maybe it is time to ask why we all don't do the right thing.  Or if the future of economics is merely a free-for-all for an existing pie of resources, perhaps we should just dispense with the civilities?  

 

Whether you are a Krugmanite progressive-socialist or a classical liberal lost in the 21st Century, in both cases we rely upon a consensus called the rule of law.  But is that assumption still valid?  Many conservatives believe that the left has lost its collective mind and embraced hyperinflation a la Weimar Germany, not to help people in any meaningful way but to simply preserve Democratic political power.  

 

If the political tsunami underway in Maine is any indicator, the November 2012 election will be fascinating and unpredictable.  But while there may be conservative uprisings at the local level, in Washington at the Fed a decidedly orthodox form of state socialism continues to reign supreme.  

 

"If you consider that John Law's main intellectual error was thinking that shares of stock were just as good as money," AIER scholar Walker Todd noted recently.  "Ben Bernanke's error is thinking that derivatives and math models are as good as a scarce commodity in restraining the quantity and promoting the value of money." 

 

But the beliefs of mere Fed economists are a sublime concern compared to the naked inflationism of Paul Krugman and his fellow travelers in American liberalism.  The battle now is between people like ME Governor Le Page, who want to restore fiscal sanity to American life, and those who merely wish to destroy the private economy and monetary system.  By ensuring that as many people as possible are dependent upon government for their livelihoods, liberals in states like ME are treading the path blazed a century ago.  by V.I. Lenin.  What a shame most of them do not appreciate this irony of repeating the same mistakes over and over again.    


High Frequency Trading & the price you pay for your gold.

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 02:20 AM PDT

- In the U.S., High-Frequency trading (HFT) now accounts for 70-80% of all equity trades. If these figures sound alarming, consider for a moment that HFT is merely a sub-class of automated trading, often referred to as algorithmic trading, black-box trading or robo trading. Hence, algorithmic trading, where trades are executed automatically often at high [...]


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