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- “Flat Momentum” Sees Gold in “Contracting Range”, Spanish Bailout “Is in Germany’s Interest”, Government Borrowing “Raises Questions” on UK Austerity
- Gold: Technical or Fundamental Analysis?
- Silver Undervalued
- Silver Undervalued
- Inflation To Rise With Diminishing Impact Of Debt On GDP Growth
- Which Gold Miner ETF Is Right For You? GDX Vs. GDXJ Vs. RING
- Debt As A Percent Of GDP: The One Chart Every Commodity Trader Must See
- Reality Therapy for Abused Investors
- The Missing Collapse in the Art Market
- Summer Doldrums Hit Gold Price
- It's The Numbers, Stupid
- Gold Q2, 2012 - Investment Statistics and Commentary
- Gold discoveries are not keeping pace with mined production
- Making A Gold Nugget From Electronic Waste
- Canada & Miner 'Guilty' but Economy Thrives
- Syria and Iran Under Attack, Families Turn to Gold for Stability
- Fresnillo has a record gold output
- The Greater Good
- Explaining Wage Stagnation
- Nationalizing the Financial Industry
- Corn Price Concerns Increasing
- The sinister nature of inflation – historic droughts push food costs up impacting 46 million Americans on food stamps. What happens when everything gets more expensive and incomes fall?
- Jim Sinclair: An Open Challenge to All Precious Metal Mining CEOs
- Ronald Reagan and Pierre Trudeau’s 1981 Addresses to Parliament in Canada
- Mich store is selling a $ one million gold diamond bra
- Gold and silver markets are extremely tight. Tipping point is close
| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:59 PM PDT
"Flat Momentum" Sees Gold in "Contracting Range", Spanish Bailout "Is in Germany's Interest", Government Borrowing "Raises Questions" on UK Austerity THE U.S. DOLLAR gold price hovered above $1580 an ounce during Friday morning trading in London – in line with where it has spent the last two weeks – while stocks and commodities ticked lower and US Treasuries gained, as market attention returned to the European debt crisis, currently focused on Spain. The silver price dipped to $27.07 per ounce, though it too remained firmly within its range for the last fortnight. Based on Friday afternoon London Fix prices, the gold price has alternated between up and down weeks since the week ended 11 May. A gold fix below $1595.50 per ounce this afternoon would see this pattern extended for a tenth week. "The [daily trading] range is contracting these days," says Standard Bank's Yuichi Ikemizu, head of commodity trading, Japan. "I don't see much encouragement for people to have a big position." "Daily momentum is flat," agrees Tim Riddell, head of global markets research, Asia, at ANZ Bank For both Dollar and Sterling investors, the gold price is at the same level it was two months ago. Over in Europe, Germany's Bundestag yesterday voted in favor of Spain's banking bailout – which would see the Spanish government borrow up to €100 billion to finance banking sector restructuring. The aid may in time be converted so it takes the form of direct loans to banks, subject to conditions such as the creation of a single European banking supervisor. The vote passed by 473 votes to 97. "Any problems in the Spanish banking sector are a problem for the financial stability of the Eurozone," said German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ahead of the vote. "Spain is the fourth biggest economy in the Eurozone," added Andrea Nahles, deputy leader of the main opposition party the Social Democrats. "A couple of its banks need to be stabilized. If we don't do it, the country that suffers most is Germany, so it is in Germany's interests to help Spain." Finland's parliament meantime voted 109 votes to 73 in favor of the bailout on Friday. Spain's parliament meantime voted in favor of a €65 billion austerity package on Thursday. The vote, which was not attended by prime minister Mariano Rajoy, was passed with 180 votes out of 350 seats, newswire Bloomberg reports, suggesting no opposition members supported the package. Yields on 10-Year Spanish government bonds remained above 7% this morning, having risen back above that level yesterday for the third time in just over a month. "[Spain's government] can't survive for long with this sort of pressure," reckons Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at brokerage Intermoney in Madrid. "There is still more fear than anger on the streets but the demonstrations are increasing and as unemployment increases, it will get worse." "They are wrecking the future of a generation," said actor Javier Bardem, quoted by Spanish newspaper El Pais as he attended a demonstration in the Spanish capital. "It's an injustice to take responsibility away from the banking industry and attack the unemployed, the sick and the poor." German producer price inflation meantime fell to 1.6% last month, its lowest level since May 2010. "At first sight, this should boost output," says a note from UBS. "But the exchange rate response is simply part of the bigger, well-known picture of economic stress in the common currency region…although the weaker currency will help the troubled economies rebalance [towards more exports], the weakness is not a trigger for [economic growth] forecast revisions." UBS also notes that the European Central Bank has expanded the size of its balance sheet much faster than the Federal Reserve over the past 12 months, "simply because the eurozone economy and its banks remain troubled". The ECB cut its main policy interest rate to a new record low of 0.75% earlier this month, while on the same day China also cut rates and the Bank of England announced more quantitative easing. "This challenging environment tends to be conducive to gold investment." Here in the UK, government borrowing last month was larger than forecast at just over £12 billion, official figures published Friday show. "It is clear that the recession is leading to a worsening of the UK's underlying fiscal position," says London-based ING economist James Knightley. "[This] raises more question marks over the effectiveness of the government's austerity measures." Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Gold: Technical or Fundamental Analysis? Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:53 PM PDT Gold: Technical or Fundamental Analysis?
Based on the July 20th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis. Each week we reply to questions from our subscribers and include them in our Premium Updates. Today's essay is dedicated entirely to commenting on one of the letter that we received this week. It touches several interesting points and shows us that there are still some controversies and doubts regarding two most popular approaches to analyzing financial markets, i.e. technical and fundamental analysis, that need clarification. For clarity's sake we decided to put our comments alongside it, in addition to answering the reader's final question. Q: I appreciate greatly your regular analysis, but cannot help but have doubts on one aspect of your technical analysis. It is significantly influenced by the USD index movement, in which when the euro falls, the Index rises and risk assets fall off, including gold (in an environment where inflation is for tomorrow and global growth is slowing). A: Yes, our analysis is currently heavily influenced by the movement in the USD and euro, but the key word here is "currently". There will be a time (as you write below) when gold will move higher whether the dollar moves higher or not. In fact, this has already happened before. At times we have even analyzed currencies and used tops in USD as a signal for tops in gold. Just because USD is currently the key factor for precious metals investors and traders, doesn't mean that it will remain so going forward. That's why we constantly monitor correlations between various markets and see how they change, so that we know when to pay extra attention to the currency markets and when it's only optional. Q: But hiding behind the USD and US Treasuries as an alternative safe haven is a short term game, as real returns on 10 year treasury paper is negative, and US debt is still too high with slowing growth. At some point market players will start to diversify from concentrating so much in the USD and start to simultaneously diversify into gold because of the headwinds visible in the US economy (fiscal cliff, etc.). No market player in this environment will put too many eggs in just the USD because it is also clearly perceived as only the least dirty shirt in town. When this diversification happens, gold and the USD Index could initially both rise. And this will be the first leg of a bigger move in gold when the USD shirt looks even dirtier. A: Agreed. Q: Traditional technical analysis cannot tell us when this will happen in this current environment where traditional technical correlations are more susceptible to macroeconomic/political developments. A: Agreed. Technical analysis cannot currently tell when these fundamental factors will come into play. Again, the emphasis is on "currently". We could also add "directly" to that. Technical analysis will probably tell us that in the form of a bullish formation and the overall strength in the gold market, for instance relative to underlying factors like stocks, currencies and commodities. Support lines, cycles and Fibonacci retracements don't explain why a given move is likely to be seen. They just tell you that it is the case. So you will never know if a given formation is the result of one fundamental factor or another one. The most important comment that we would like to make here is that it is not the point of using technical analysis to detect the timing of the market's recognition of certain factors months ahead. When you buy a sports car you don't complain about it not being a good vehicle for a transportation company – you enjoy the ride. Technical analysis is just one of the tools at our disposal. We put great emphasis on it in our weekly analysis because this is where the biggest changes can be observed. The fundamental picture is bullish for precious metals. And even though we discuss the latest news, our long-term views on gold and silver really don't change (we will make relevant comments on medium-term moves, though). So, we use the technical analysis to predict what can be predicted and we use fundamental analysis (including macroeconomic and political developments) to establish the main trend and position ourselves accordingly. Additionally, we hold some in physical form as insurance against serious financial turmoil. This way, the fact that not everything can be predicted using technical analysis becomes less important. Also, without it, one's forecasting abilities would be much more limited. Q: What most are saying is that to stop the US shirt from getting dirtier, the Fed will intervene again with QE3 and so push the USD Index down and gold/risk assets up. However we all know that this debt problem is structural and requires fiscal reform. More and more monetary easing will push the problem further back, make it worse, and in the meantime incorrectly convey the view that past correlations still hold as in better times. A: If the correlation numbers are significant then the correlation will be in place and analyzing one market will help to analyze another. When the abovementioned factors kick in, the correlation numbers will start to reflect that and we will know not to pay attention to these other markets anymore. Q: With (a) more QE by the Fed, the USD Index goes down and gold instantly up because of the USD/gold correlation. A: Probably yes. and with (b) no QE the USD Index stays strong for the foreseeable future as concern increases about the US economy and traders/investors simultaneously hedge their USD exposures with more gold. A: The USD may not stay so strong for the foreseeable future. It could move higher and then decline again or move sideways. It would depend on what happens with other currencies. After all, currency exchange rates are just comparisons of speeds at which each currency sinks. If other currencies improve somewhat, it could be seen as weakness in the dollar. Also, traders and investors don't have to automatically hedge their USD exposures with more gold. This is likely to be seen at some point in the future, but we can't tell how soon. Q: For me these macro considerations, (a) and (b), will drive the gold wheel going forward more than technical analysis. A: Technical analysis is not the main factor behind the precious metals secular bull market. Macroeconomic problems in the world, massive money supply, artificially low interest rates, BRIC countries' growth and other fundamental factors are. Technical analysis is just a tool that helps to time the best entry and exit points within this major move up. As such it will not drive gold, just as it has not driven it in the past. However, will the short- and medium-term moves continue to be detectable by technical analysis? Most probably yes. Q: Technical analysis is useful in indicating the support levels to watch out for while the USD Index rises. But it may be only that – an indication, because market participants know either way gold will win out. And precisely because of this gold may not fall below USD 1500 (…). I think these considerations need to be more openly discussed even if one argues that gold will eventually win out but may have a technical drop of another, say, 20% before we get there. A: We will be happy to discuss technical factors pointing to higher or lower prices in gold in the short term. However, the above-mentioned factors neither support nor contradict gold's decline in the short run. It is simply something that will likely be seen "in some time," probably months or even years from now. (A detailed analysis of the situation in the gold market along with our price targets can be found in the full version of this article.) Q: There are ways of staying in a gold position and hedging the downside risk, and even making money on the volatility in the short hedged position through playing (in/out) the intraweek volatility in the price ranges, even as they shift going forward. But I understand this may not be everyone's cup of tea! That's what I do currently building up a bigger positive spread between my long/short positions so that I have additional spread to play with when deciding when gold has reached a bottom and I start closing out my shorts. I hope to do this in 2013, if not sooner, and would be surprised if gold loses another 15%. (…). I know it is a tough call as you have customers, and need to position yourselves accordingly, but if you had to call it (based on your view about QE timing, and other economic/political interventions) , do you think that the next big move up in gold will be this year or next and what upside range would you foresee? A: I think that the next big move might start close to the end of this year or in 2013. At this point we see this as a 60/30/9 probability: 60% for this year, 30% for next year and 9% for the following years. The remaining 1% is for the case that we are wrong about the secular bull market in precious metals and that the next big move up in gold doesn't arrive for at least 10 years. To sum up and somehow answer the title question, we would like to stress that we don't choose just one of these methods and shun the other, as we believe that the key to successful market analysis is using them both. However, one still needs to remember that each serves different purposes – fundamental approach is essential in positioning oneself properly and to know what to expect in the long run, while technical analysis is indispensable in tracking day to day changes and short- and medium-term trends as they unfold. Current situation in the precious metals market is probably the best confirmation of the above sentences: an investor using only the fundamental approach would have probably lost serious amounts of money during recent declines, telling themselves "hey, I know the fundamentals are good so I got to go long on gold" while the followers of only technical analysis might have already lost their faith in the precious metals sector, as the technical situation is not as promising now as it used to be. But combining both approaches lets one come up with a coherent strategy that is likely to pay off handsomely in the future. If you're interested in reading our replies to other questions or examining our latest Premium Update (with over 20 precious-metals-related charts), we invite you to join our subscribers. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * *
Sunshine Profits provides professional support for Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:42 PM PDT
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| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:36 PM PDT After being sucked into the general commodities correction, silver has been relentlessly drifting lower since late February. But this weakness has forced the white metal down to a very bullish place technically. |
| Inflation To Rise With Diminishing Impact Of Debt On GDP Growth Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:34 PM PDT By Faisal Humayun: In one of my recent articles, 29 hyperinflations in the last 100 years, I discussed the probability of hyperinflation or high inflation in the foreseeable future. I had linked the probability of hyperinflation with surging money supply in that article. This article also discusses the prospects of high inflation with a gradually diminishing impact of debt on GDP growth. To build on my case, I would be using the total credit market debt outstanding in the U.S. in different periods and assess its impact on GDP growth during the same period. From 1960 to 1980, the total credit market debt increased by USD3.9 trillion. In the same period, the GDP increased by USD2.4 trillion. In other words, one dollar of debt had an incremental impact of 61 cents on the GDP. From the year 1980 to 2000, the total credit market debt increased by USD20.7 trillion. The GDP in these Complete Story » |
| Which Gold Miner ETF Is Right For You? GDX Vs. GDXJ Vs. RING Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:25 PM PDT By CommodityHQ: By Daniela Pylypczak In recent years, gold miner ETFs have become some of the most popular investment tools, offering "indirect" exposure to gold prices without the headache of futures trading or physically holding the precious metal. Considering today's rocky environment, gold mining stocks can be a more appealing option than investing in physical bullion since these securities tend to generate meaningful cash flows. But like every other company, the profitability of gold miners depends on the price of the products they are selling, meaning that spot gold prices are a major factor in the cash flows of the underlying company. And with the evolution of the ETF industry, there are now a number of products that allow investors to add gold miner exposure to their portfolio with ease. Below, we outline the three most popular gold miner ETFs and which one will fit your investment objectives [see also Jim Rogers Complete Story » |
| Debt As A Percent Of GDP: The One Chart Every Commodity Trader Must See Posted: 20 Jul 2012 12:19 PM PDT By CommodityHQ: By Jared Cummans The past few years have seen the global economy fall on some hard times. At the head of it all has been the U.S., whose fiscal policies and rampant immoralities led to some of the biggest banks in the world bringing down the local economy. In order to keep our heads above water, the Federal Reserve has stepped in on numerous occasions, offering bailouts for hundreds of billions to try and salvage the economy. But the economy has done little to make a solid recovery and instead seems addicted to its regular injections of quantitative easing. As such, the financial situation surrounding the U.S. and our debt policies is beginning to grow concerning [see also Four Commodities To Buy Before Roubini's "Perfect Storm"]. Investors have long been wary of the Fed's liberal spending policies, as many have feared that it is only a temporary solution to issues Complete Story » |
| Reality Therapy for Abused Investors Posted: 20 Jul 2012 11:54 AM PDT "Renewed economic contraction has started to show up in the reporting of major economic series. Headline June retail sales declined by 0.5% versus May, in the context of earlier monthly contractions… "The general outlook remains unchanged …. Official reporting shows a plunge in economic activity from fourth-quarter 2007 to second-quarter 2009, with an ensuing upturn in activity that led to a full recovery as of third-quarter 2011. In contrast, I contend the economy began turning down in 2006, plunging in 2008 into 2009 and subsequently stagnating—bottom-bouncing—at a low level of activity ever since. There has been no recovery, and the economic downturn is intensifying anew. "The official recovery simply is a statistical illusion created by the government's use of understated inflation in deflating the GDP. Use of understated inflation in such a manner results in overstated economic growth. "The long-term fiscal solvency issues of the United States—where GAAP-based accounting shows annual deficits running in the $5 trillion range—are not being addressed… "Neither economic nor systemic-solvency issues have been resolved by U.S. government or Federal Reserve actions. With the economy weak enough to provide cover for further Fed accommodation to the still-struggling banking system, the next easing by the Fed likely will trigger a massive dollar selling crisis and begin the process of a rapid upturn in domestic consumer inflation…" (emphasis added) "Commentary #455: June Retail Sales," John Williams, www.shadowstats.com, 07/16/2012 Unreliable Official Statistics and poor or just flat inaccurate Mainstream Media reporting leaves many Investors in a quite vulnerable position. Investors are thus so disadvantaged by having to rely on such lousy data (or lack of any data) that it is arguably tantamount to financial abuse. Indeed, Key Mainstream Financial and other Media generally have done such an abysmally poor job of reporting lately (indeed, at times distorting or apparently even censoring the most important Developments) that we thought it would be useful to summarize Important Recent Developments because this knowledge is essential to help Investors Profit and Protect. The following Real News is from sources which we have generally found to be reliable. Fortunately, much of the Real News is Good News, but much is Negative. In any event, perhaps most important is the Mainstream Media and Mainstream Financial Media refusal to report on the ongoing suppression of Precious Metal Prices. Knowing the Real News is essential to profiting and protecting wealth. Notwithstanding The Cartel's (Note 1) attempt to demoralize Precious Metals Partisans with their repeated Price Takedowns, one should consider the following Good News which indicates Gold and Silver are setting up to Rally in spite of ongoing Cartel Price suppression attempts.
But the News is not all positive. Even so, knowing the Negatives is essential to Profitable Investing and Wealth Protection.
Deepcaster agrees with Von Greyerz and Buckler: Get Gold, Physical Gold. "But in spite of all the adversity that gold has encountered in the last 12 years, the yellow metal has still appreciated over 6 times since 1999. "So why is gold likely to erupt in the next few weeks? After a strong move into late August 2011 we have had a correction/consolidation for almost 11 months. During this time, every single fundamental factor in the world economy has deteriorated. The Eurozone countries are in a complete mess and can never recover. The UK economy is in a terrible state but they are just lucky that they can print money which Eurozone countries can't do. The same is the case with the US. Debts are increasing at an exponential rate and there is no attempt by government to stop the spending of money the country doesn't have. Total debts and exposure in the US is approaching $500 trillion. This includes unfunded liabilities and derivatives. The latter are likely to become worthless when counterparty fails, something which is very likely to be the case. Most economic figures are deteriorating in the US. The US has had the fortune of all the focus being on Europe but that will soon change. "Japan has massive debts and the economy is extremely weak. And China with its major credit explosion will also suffer badly when the whole world stops buying their goods. "…Governments will continue to apply the only method they know (with the blessing of economists like Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf) which is issuing unlimited amounts of worthless paper that they call money. This is of course no solution and only adding insult to injury. "A concerted (ECB, FED, IMF etc) money printing bonanza is likely to start in 2012. This will lead to all currencies collapsing in real terms. Collapsing currencies will lead to a hyperinflationary depression. But many assets will deflate in real terms, especially the ones that were inflated by the credit bubble. This includes stocks, property and bonds as well as debt which have all been in a massive bubble for at least four decades. Gold will be a major beneficiary. "Gold will also appreciate because there is a total distrust in governments' ability to govern. The more governments fail, the more they will want to control the system and the citizens and the more regulation they introduce. There is also distrust in the financial system. Lehman, MF Global and PFG amongst others are only the very beginning of a serial collapse of banks and finance houses. "There is also distrust in a system that prints money with the beneficiaries primarily being bankers and the financial system. Bankers and banks keep failing and keep on being rewarded more for each time they fail. No banker is ever penalised for losing billions which the tax payers ultimately are responsible for. "All the king's horses and all the king's men could never hold gold down, Amen!" Egon von Greyerz, GoldSwitzerland.com, 7/18/2012 "Asia is accumulating Gold. Russia is accumulating Gold. (Supposedly) backward nations all over the world are accumulating Gold, on both an individual and a government level. While the (supposedly) developed world has developed an idea of monetary safety which turns all history on its head, the rest of the world is not going along with them. We will leave it to you to decide which are the credulous and which are not." Bill Buckler, editor of The Privateer Australia, 7/2012 Best regards, Deepcaster July 20, 2012 Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster's December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled "Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions - III" and Deepcaster's July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the 'Alerts Cache' and 'Latest Letter' Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster's profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these "Interventionals." Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster's recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. Note 2: Bogus Official Statistics mask the Effects of ongoing QE and related Actions. Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com) Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 17, 2012 1.70% / 9.26% U.S. Unemployment reported July 6, 2012 8.2% / 22.8% U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported June 28, 2012 1.99% / -2.17% U.S. M3 reported July 13, 2012 (Month of June, Y.O.Y.) No Official Report / 2.82% And Official Source Disinformation continues, consider Shadowstats comments on the January 6, 2012 release of U.S. Employment data: "The reported seasonally-adjusted 200,000 jobs surge in December 2011 payrolls included a false, seasonally-adjusted gain of roughly 42,000 in the "Couriers and Messengers" category. That gain was an artifact of the seasonal-adjustment process and will remove itself in the January 2012 numbers. "The problem is that this 42,000 gain is part of a seasonal pattern that fully reverses itself each January…" "December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem" www.shadowstats.com, John Williams, 1/6/12 Note 3: We have described Crude Oil as the "Truth Teller" because it is an Essential Commodity that gets used up. Thus its Price is very difficult to manipulate over the mid to long term, and it therefore serves as a fairly reliable Real Inflation indicator. So, it is very significant, that in spite of recent US$ strength, Crude Prices have begun to move up off of $80/bbl resistance and are trading around $90 earlier this week. Indeed, anticipating this move UP we recommended a Long Energy Play in early June, which is up nicely since then. Looking at the Real Inflation Numbers (e.g. 9.3% U.S. Inflation per shadowstats.com) allowed us to make this Call. Considering the Real Inflation Numbers leads us to recommend another stock in our recent Alert with a Recent Yield of 10.7%. And it is selling at under $10.50/share. Our High Yield Portfolio is aimed at achieving a Total Return well in excess of Real Inflation. Considering Inflation and other Real Numbers, plus Fundamentals, Technicals, and Interventionals leads us to conclude that certain other Key Sectors are about to begin Major Price Moves. Our recent recommendations Position our Portfolios well for these Moves. To consider them, read our most recent Alert, "10.7% Yield Buy Reco; Mega-Moves Impending; Forecasts: Key Commodities incl Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; Equities, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates," recently posted in the 'Alerts Cache' at deepcaster.com. Note 4: Amid all the uncertainty in the Markets and Economy there are three "Fortress Asset" Sectors which will likely return profits regardless of Boom or Bust, Inflation or Deflation. To understand why we select just these three Sectors first consider "The Bureau of Labor statistics reported the increase/decrease in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for June 2012 on Friday, July 6th. Stocks plunged on the news. Why? The BLS reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 80,000 new jobs in June. Isn't that good? Well first of all, it is a false figure. The true figure is there was a net loss of 44,000 jobs in June. The BLS decided in their infinite wisdom that they think, they guess, they pretended that new businesses that started up in June created 126,000 new jobs. They have no idea what new businesses started, nor did they count new jobs in these phantom new businesses. This 126,000 phony figure was added to the loss of 44,000 jobs to fudge a positive number for the release of the June jobs report. This phony figure is called the CESBD adjustment, or the Birth/Death adjustment. Birth/Death refers to businesses, not people. The truth is the economy lost 44,000 jobs in June. This is abysmal. This is recession. This is an indictment of government fiscal policy, of Fed monetary policy, of tax policy and regulation of businesses. We need a true increase of 150,000 new jobs each month just to break even with population growth, and need millions more to put displaced workers back in a job. "The truth is, the economy is falling off a cliff, housing transactions are essentially non-existent, jobs are declining, growth is shrinking." "Current Weekend Report" Robert McHugh, Main Line Investors, 7/7/12 There is a War going on between the forces of Inflation (e.g. Central Bank Money Printing) and the forces of Deflation (e.g. several contracting Economies around the world resulting in increasing Unemployment and a slowing Velocity of Money). The Central banks will ultimately "Win" via QE-to-Infinity but that "Win" will be a Pyrrhic victory because it will bring Hyperinflation. But the Real Numbers are being Masked by the Bogus Official Ones. Consider Adrian Douglas' point: "There are frequent claims that the U.S. economy has entered a period of "deflation." These claims are totally unfounded and are false. Deflation can only be a persistent state of general price decline. In fact, in examining price trends, the U.S. is experiencing shocking price increases of over 15% per annum. To illustrate this, …the Continuous Commodities Index, CCI over the past ten years. "Deflation – Nowhere to be Seen" Adrian Douglas, Market Force Analysis, 7/7/12 Fortunately there are three "Fortress Profit Sectors" which should suffice to Protect and Profit. We identify these, including a Mini-Sector with Spectacular Profit Potential. One other category can serve to Protect Against Inflation – To consider our High-Yield Stocks Portfolio with Recent Yields of 18.5%, 8.6%, 10.6%, 26%, 6.7%, 8%, 10.6%, 14.9%, 10% and 15.6% when added to the portfolio; go to www.deepcaster.com and click on 'High Yield Portfolio'. For this and more, read Deepcaster's August Letter, "3 Fortress Profit Sectors & 1 Not; Forecasts: Key Commodities: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; August Letter", posted in 'Latest Letter', at deepcaster.com. |
| The Missing Collapse in the Art Market Posted: 20 Jul 2012 10:06 AM PDT Cash, trash and treasure have switched purpose as the credit bubble turns to bust... |
| Summer Doldrums Hit Gold Price Posted: 20 Jul 2012 09:37 AM PDT Long-term analysis of the stock-market shows that the adage "Sell in May" is based on hard fact, if not quite a fail-safe timing strategy. Gold investors and traders should note the seasonal pattern to bullion prices, as well. |
| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 08:32 AM PDT Most people have no idea of the unsustainability of government spending. The path which the government blindly follows ensures a complete and total collapse of the US. What has happened in Greece (and things will get much worse there) is exactly what will occur in the US. A complete and total economic collapse is inevitable. |
| Gold Q2, 2012 - Investment Statistics and Commentary Posted: 20 Jul 2012 07:25 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Gold discoveries are not keeping pace with mined production Posted: 20 Jul 2012 07:13 AM PDT |
| Making A Gold Nugget From Electronic Waste Posted: 20 Jul 2012 07:08 AM PDT |
| Canada & Miner 'Guilty' but Economy Thrives Posted: 20 Jul 2012 07:02 AM PDT The final trading session of this once again indecisive week in gold commenced with a price drop. The yellow metal erased Thursday's gains and retreated to under $1,575 in slow pre-market action as the US dollar picked up some steam. |
| Syria and Iran Under Attack, Families Turn to Gold for Stability Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:54 AM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: Escalating tensions and sanctions in Syria and Iran have led those nations to the brink of currency collapse and left families to deal with skyrocketing prices. Seeking shelter from financial ruin as well as bullets, many families are moving their assets into gold. Hours after UK Prime Minister David Cameron pleaded with Russian President Vladimir Putin to help the UN Security Council send "clear and tough messages about sanctions" to Syrians, the East bloc nations did just that. China and Russia both vetoed the UN resolution for further sanctions. China's ambassador denounced what he called an uneven resolution, while Russia's representative pointed out that the resolution would have opened the path to UN military involvement in Syria's affairs. Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
| Fresnillo has a record gold output Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:48 AM PDT |
| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:47 AM PDT
from blog.milesfranklin.com: Last week at Freedom Fest, I met many interesting people. "Free money" is my focus, but the conference was about "free everything," from politics, to religion, to medicine. Thus, presenters and attendees alike emanated from diverse backgrounds, with the common goal of pursuing "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" in their own personal way. During the show, I met an interesting woman named Leslie Manookian. We struck an immediate bond, as she, too, deserted a successful Wall Street career – at Goldman Sachs, no less – due to growing disgust for Wall Street corruption, and – equally importantly – to pursue interests closer to her heart. In my case, I abandoned stock analysis at Salomon Smith Barney for what I truly believe will PROTECT investors – PHYSICAL gold and silver, while in Leslie's case, her passion was the dangers of un-researched – and often mandatory – VACCINATIONS. Consequently, she devoted a considerable amount of time to researching – and eventually creating – a comprehensive documentary on the topic. Titled "The Greater Good," this award-winning film discusses all relevant issues, a veritable primer to the growing debate as to whether vaccination represents a net positive for society, particularly when mandated by various municipalities and health organizations. Keep on reading @ blog.milesfranklin.com |
| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:45 AM PDT
from azizonomics.com: Why? Well, my intuition says one thing — the change in trajectory correlates very precisely with the end of the Bretton Woods system. My intuition says that that event was a seismic shift for wages, for gold, for oil, for trade. The data seems to support that — the end of the Bretton Woods system correlates beautifully to a rise in income inequality, a downward shift in total factor productivity, a huge upward swing in credit creation, the beginning of financialisation, the beginning of a new stage in globalisation, and a myriad of other things. Some, including Peter Thiel and James Hamilton, have suggested that there is data to suggest that an oil shock may have been the catalyst that put us into a new trajectory. Keep on reading @ azizonomics.com |
| Nationalizing the Financial Industry Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:44 AM PDT
from financialsense.com: When government proposes to nationalize a major industry, it is a loudspeaker blaring the message that the country is abandoning the market economy, moving from capitalism to full socialism. So it has been in Venezuela as socialist President Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil-drilling, gold-mining, coffee producing, and other companies. When nationalizations begin, capital flees a country, businessmen despair, and socialists cheer the death of private property. But no one is talking about nationalizing American business, right? There are no decrees transferring businesses from private ownership to government "ownership." And no panicked flight of capital or despairing businessmen. Keep on reading @ financialsense.com |
| Corn Price Concerns Increasing Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:42 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: Rising commodity prices are back in the news in a big way, with many column inches being devoted in particular to rising crop prices. Corn and soybean prices hit new record highs yesterday, with half the continental US in the grip of the worst draught since 1956. The US Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of the size of the corn crop by 12%. Nymex crude oil and gasoline futures also had another strong session, with WTI gaining $3 to settle at $92 a barrel, while gasoline continues what has been a relentless march higher since the start of this month. Interestingly, a report yesterday from the US Energy Information Administration reported American gasoline use as being at a 13-year low for July! Imagine what the price would be if the Fed had started another round of quantitative easing. The continuing tensions surrounding Iran and Syria are not helping as far as crude oil and gasoline shorts are concerned. Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:28 AM PDT
from mybudget360.com: Inflation is an odd sort of economic beast. People take it for granted that inflation will always be a part of our life sort of like a quite humming background noise. The Federal Reserve is doing all it can to increase inflation so banks can essentially inflate their debts away. Yet the impact for most Americans is negative. The debt based system built on access to easy debt has seen a perpetual system of bubbles. We had the housing bubble now followed by the higher education bubble. While prices in the two most expensive pursuits for Americans went into bubbles, the average American has seen their net worth and incomes go negative. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of every dollar you have in your pocket. At the moment, the process of deleveraging is so large that inflation is muted in some categories. Yet items like college that are decoupled from income are soaring to stratospheric levels. Keep on reading @ mybudget360.com |
| Jim Sinclair: An Open Challenge to All Precious Metal Mining CEOs Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:24 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: Gold began to rally in fits and starts just before 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time…and hit its zenith less than fifteen minutes after Comex trading began in New York yesterday morning…and that, as they say, was that. The gold price got sold off, but began to rally again shortly before 10:00 a.m. in New York. That rally also failed to get very far above the $1,590 spot price level. From there it traded more or less sideways until a thoughtful soul decided to sell it down into the Comex close. The New York low came at precisely 2:00 p.m. in electronic trading. From that low, gold rallied a bit before trading almost ruler flat into the 5:15 p.m. close. Gold finished the Thursday trading session at $1,581.70 spot…up $8.20 on the day. Net volume was around 113,000 contracts, which was a few thousand contracts higher than Wednesday's volume. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Ronald Reagan and Pierre Trudeau’s 1981 Addresses to Parliament in Canada Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:23 AM PDT Fourth in a series: Addresses of President Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau of Canada before a Joint Session of the Parliament in Ottawa on March 11, 1981. Powerful, long lasting wisdom expressed by both leaders, regardless of one's political bias. Please comment if one knows the identity of the eloquent woman speaker near the end of the recording. (Audio only, but very worthy of sharing. 41:32) Source: Reagan Foundation via YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkF53Lb3Pno&feature=player_detailpage Comment: From a time when the person who occupied the White House was presidential. It has been while since that was true. |
| Mich store is selling a $ one million gold diamond bra Posted: 20 Jul 2012 06:10 AM PDT |
| Gold and silver markets are extremely tight. Tipping point is close Posted: 20 Jul 2012 05:47 AM PDT |
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