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- Gold and Silver Investors Rotating Into Undervalued Junior Explorers
- Price of Gold in 3 Currencies Since 1971
- Peregrine Financial Group: Another Futures Firm Implodes (And What Regulators Should Do)
- U.S. Retail Collapse Accelerates
- Why Buffett Is Dead Wrong On Gold
- Gold “Could Break Above $1600″ if Bernanke Drops QE Hint, But Investor Interest in Gold “Far from Overwhelming”
- Are Lower Stock Prices in the Cards and What Would it Mean for Gold?
- The Gold Price & Quantitative Easing
- Managed money positions hint at bullish turns for gold and silver
- Brimelow - Radical gold bugs vindicated?
- The End of the Bernanke Put is Here
- How Close Are We to New Great Depression?
- U.S. dollar turns up; Bernanke sticks to script
- Mark Hulbert: Intelligent Bet Remains on Gold
- Marc Faber Says “Gold Is Oversold Near Term”
- Silver Trend Line Update 7.17.12
- Marc Faber Says Bullion Oversold 'Near Term'
- Investor Interest in Gold 'Far from Overwhelming'
- Silver Update: Smoke = Fire – 7/16/12
- Gold versus Fractional Reserves
- Nat Gas Ready To Pop?
- CEOs Responsible For Standing Up Against Manipulation
- Goodbye Greece, Hello Hellenic Socialist Republic
- UK Authorities Give Bullion another Leg Up
- Price Fell through The Bottom
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 17 2012
| Gold and Silver Investors Rotating Into Undervalued Junior Explorers Posted: 17 Jul 2012 01:09 PM PDT
The rule of the casino emphasizes that in order for one to be right in the market, the consensus has to believe that you are wrong. The majority goes home empty handed while the few emerge winners. Today there is extreme volatility, nevertheless the few players emerge as winners despite the daily ups and downs. In fact, our wealth in the earth charts appear to show a transient pullback in an upward long term trajectory, whereby wealth in the ground advances in a major rally as positions mount from bullion (GLD) to miners (GDX). The treasuries (TLT) are trading like a dot-com stock moving exponentially higher and the U.S. dollar (UUP) is reaching long term resistance at overbought conditions. We may be witnessing the 12 month rally in U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar coming near an interim top.
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| Price of Gold in 3 Currencies Since 1971 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 12:38 PM PDT If you REALLY want to see where gold has been/might be headed, in dollars, pounds and euros. Second chart is the end of the first with a wider time scale. WGC-Gold-price1970-present(1).png R. |
| Peregrine Financial Group: Another Futures Firm Implodes (And What Regulators Should Do) Posted: 17 Jul 2012 12:18 PM PDT By AAII: Nine months after the collapse of MF Global, another futures trading firm has imploded. Peregrine Financial Group (PFG), also known as PFGBest, filed for Chapter 7 in federal bankruptcy court on Tuesday. The filing occurred a day after the firm's founder, Russell Wasendorf Sr., attempted suicide. Wasendorf is accused of misappropriating customer funds, making false statements and fraud. Details of what happened are still emerging, but the National Futures Association alleges that PFG claimed to have in excess of $220 million in customer accounts, when it actually only held $5.1 million. Wasendorf is said to have falsified bank statements as far back as February 2010. Regulators discovered the discrepancy while researching the company's possible involvement with a Minnesota Ponzi scheme. The debacle extends beyond PFG. Wasendorf owned several other businesses, including SFO Magazine and W&A Publishing/Trader's Press. These businesses have been shut down. (The Des Moines Register says 125 people Complete Story » |
| U.S. Retail Collapse Accelerates Posted: 17 Jul 2012 11:17 AM PDT Less than two weeks ago I wrote "Crash Warning." It outlined the current economic parameters of the global economy and explained that we were careening toward a particular form of economic Armageddon which I believe was first described by John Williams of Shadowstats.com, when he coined the phrase "hyperinflationary depression" nearly a decade ago. The debt-laden, fraud-saturated paper Ponzi-schemes of Western bankers are now all about to implode in a deflationary (debt-default) collapse – most notably all their fraud-bonds. Simultaneously, the rabidly excessive money-printing of these reckless gamblers is causing (and will cause) the prices for hard assets (i.e. assets which actually have value) to spiral upward, with the most likely final destination being hyperinflation. Because that previous commentary was describing a global economic paradigm, my analysis was necessarily abbreviated with respect to the apex of all economic ills: the United States. In particular, I spent less than a paragraph discussing the collapse of the retail sector in the world's largest economy -- a consumer economy. Before we examine this train-wreck directly, let's take a moment to define the backbone of this consumer economy: the American consumer. The two charts below should be very familiar to regular readers, and describe the American consumer in stark but precise terms: poor and/or unemployed.
[chart above courtesy of http://nowandfutures.com/index.html]
We see two things in the chart above on average American wages. First we see how (in real dollars) wages for the average U.S. worker have been falling steadily for more than 40 years. Those wages have now fallen by more than 50%, all the way down to the same levels as during the Great Depression. And we see how the U.S. government's lies about inflation have almost entirely concealed this relentless collapse in wages. How convenient. |
| Why Buffett Is Dead Wrong On Gold Posted: 17 Jul 2012 10:53 AM PDT By CommodityHQ: By Jared Cummans Gold investing is one of the most popular aspects of the commodity world. In recent years it has established a cult following that swears by the hard asset as one of their favorite capital allocations. But for every gold bug that exists, there is someone else who writes the precious metal off completely. One of the biggest gold-haters our there is Warren Buffett, as the Oracle of Omaha has been adamant about his lack of interest in the asset as well as its complete lack of use to him as an investor [see also Three Reasons Why Gold Is Overvalued]. Buffett once stated that gold is "dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head". Complete Story » |
| Posted: 17 Jul 2012 10:20 AM PDT
Gold "Could Break Above $1600″ if Bernanke Drops QE Hint, But Investor Interest in Gold "Far from Overwhelming" SPOT MARKET gold prices climbed as high as $1598 an ounce during Tuesday morning's trading in London, their highest level so far this week, with markets looking ahead to Federal Reserve chairman Bern Bernanke's appearance before Congress later today. "Gold is trading in a range between $1550 support and downtrend resistance, currently at $1614," say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "The trend has been sideways since early June, but the downtrend from the March highs remains intact." Silver prices also saw gains this morning, hitting $27.70 per ounce, while commodities in general were broadly flat. European stock markets edged higher – with the exception of the FTSE in London. A day earlier, Dollar gold prices saw a small rally at the start of Monday's US session following the release of US retail sales data, which showed an unexpected month-on-month drop of 0.5% in June. "The slowdown in consumer spending reinforces the overall impression that economic activity has decelerated over the last few months following a relatively strong start to the year," says James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC. "This may contribute to greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to provide additional monetary accommodation." Despite Monday's rally, the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) continued to see outflows. The volume of gold bullion held to back GLD shares fell 3.6 tonnes yesterday to 1266.1 tonnes – 1% down on where it started the month. "Investor interest in gold is far from overwhelming despite ongoing macro uncertainty," says VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. "[Although] many market participants expect the US central bank to initiate another round of quantitative easing given that the momentum of the US economic recovery has been slowing." Fed chairman Bernanke is due to give his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress later today. "The [gold] market seems to have priced in the expectation of more easing," reckons Lynette Tan, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "If there is some sort of hint that there could be quantitative easing [then] gold could break above $1600." "There are still some people that are betting on more [QE]," agrees Rabobank strategist Philip Marey. "[But] I think it's most likely that they are going to be disappointed." Ahead of Bernanke's testimony, US consumer price index inflation data for June are due to be published later today. Consensus forecast among analysts is for a slight drop in CPI inflation to 1.6%, from 1.7% in May. Here in the UK, CPI inflation fell to 2.4% last month – down from 2.8% a month earlier – the Office for National Statistics revealed Tuesday. The Pound fell against the Dollar following the release, while the gold price in Sterling rose, briefly touching £1022 per ounce. Elsewhere in London, Bank of England governor Mervyn King and deputy governor Paul Tucker appear before the Treasury Committee today to answer questions over Libor. On Monday, former Barclays chief operating officer Jerry del Missier told the Committee that he was "passing instructions along" to subordinates when he asked them to lower borrowing cost estimates submitted to the Libor panel, which sets the benchmark interbank interest rate. "I fully expected the Bank of England's views would be incorporated in the submission," said Del Missier, referring to a conversation in October 2008 between the Bank's Tucker and Del Missier's boss at Barclays Bob Diamond. German investor confidence has fallen for the third month running, according to the ZEW economic sentiment index, which has dropped from -16.9 last month to -19.6. "Germany's export prospects to Europe are in the doldrums," says ING economist Carsten Brzeski in Brussels. "The US and China cooling doesn't bode well either…a stronger domestic economy can't offset that, so we are looking at a long period of stagnation, albeit at a high level." In the Far East meantime, sales of gold jewelry by Hong Kong Resources Holdings were up 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, the company reports. Gold jewelry sales to mainland China saw a 5% annual rise in Q2. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Are Lower Stock Prices in the Cards and What Would it Mean for Gold? Posted: 17 Jul 2012 10:04 AM PDT
The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day policy meeting on July 31 that is expected to yield no change in U.S. interest rates, but markets will analyze and dissect every word of Chairman Ben Bernanke for any clues that the central bank will do more to promote economic growth. Already it seems that three top Federal Reserve policymakers on Monday laid the groundwork for a third round of bond purchases by saying the U.S. recovery was weak and unemployment too high, but at the same time they said the situation is not bad enough to warrant another QE right now. In the June 22, 2012 Premium Update we wrote that Bernanke's speech could be interpreted in the following way: the economy is not yet weak enough for QE III and we want to see lower stock and commodity prices before we make another move. Lower stock prices appear more probable from here. This is certainly up-to-date. To see whether lower stock prices really are in the cards, let's turn to today's technical part with the analysis of the S&P 500 Index. We will then discuss the impact that this can make on gold and silver in the following weeks. Let's start with the long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com) In the chart (if you are reading this essay on sunshineprofits.com, you may click the above chart to enlarge), we saw a bearish indication last week and we continue to see it today. Stocks did not verify the move above the 2011 highs and moved below this level once again. The lack of strength in holding above this level is a bearish sign for the weeks ahead. In fact, the way stocks topped – the reversal candlestick provides us with a bearish confirmation. On the other hand, price is still above the rising black support line and the declining red ones, so one could say that the trend is still up. All in all, we view the above chart as moderately bearish at this point. Let's see how the financials did recently. After all, they have been a leading indicator for the general stock market for more than 4 years now. In the Broker Dealer Index chart (a proxy for the financial sector) we see bearish implications once again. The financials have been consolidating for several weeks now. After a breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the situation is now clearly bearish. The breakdown has been confirmed and with several weeks of consolidation behind it, the index is likely to now move lower. This will further contribute to the bearish outlook for the general stock market. Now, let's have a look at our own tool, that gauges the intermarket correlations, to see how the stock market can influence precious metals' prices. The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. The short-term coefficients were a bit unclear last week, especially those between the general stock market and the precious metals. Traditional values were seen in the medium-term, 90-day column with positive values between stocks and gold, silver, and the mining stocks. The overall picture based on the general stock market is bearish for the precious metals sector, because the outlook for stocks is bearish in the medium term. Summing up, the situation in the general stock market is a more bearish than not based on the above charts. The most bearish factor that we currently see is Fed's approach suggesting that stocks didn't fall low enough to justify another round of QE. The implications for the precious metals market are rather bearish based on inter-market correlations. The most recent trends, however, suggest that the most important link to monitor is the one between precious metals and currencies: USD and EUR. The full version of this essay includes our detailed thoughts on that important topic. We also tell our subscribers what how to trade this tough environment. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski
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| The Gold Price & Quantitative Easing Posted: 17 Jul 2012 09:56 AM PDT Consider that the physical gold price arguably ought not to parallel the financial equity market indexes – short of purely being "traded on the same parameters." I suggest you think hard about this statement, and determine whether you agree with it. |
| Managed money positions hint at bullish turns for gold and silver Posted: 17 Jul 2012 09:45 AM PDT |
| Brimelow - Radical gold bugs vindicated? Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:55 AM PDT Commentary: Theory is getting MSM attention Veteran gold market watcher Peter Brimelow (who happens to write for MarketWatch.com) begins a Monday offering: "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold rebounds — and the radical bugs are on a roll. First, a proprietary purr. Let the record show that MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert wrote before Friday's bounce: "Someday, gold will wake up from its dreary, listless state and take off. "And, if contrarian analysis is right, that day will come sooner rather than later." ( See July 13 column ) Hulbert reported that the average reading over the last four months of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure of a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, was minus 3.3%.He noted: "You have to go back as far as 1991 to find another four-month period in which the average HGNSI reading was this negative. Gold at that time was trading around $360 per ounce — or around $1,200 an ounce lower than where it stands today." Gold for August delivery /quotes/zigman/676896 GCQ2 -0.94% obliged by jumping $26.70 or 1.71% on Friday to $1,592 basis. That meant gold actually made a gain on the week. (But the HGNSI remained 2.3% negative as of Friday night.) When Hulbert wrote on Thursday night, things were looking pretty dismal. At its low of $1,554.40, the August gold contract looked headed to a new low for the year. Gold shares were doing even worse. On Thursday, a chart on Trader Dan's Market Views ( see website) demonstrated that the ratio between gold and the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index /quotes/zigman/6015494 XX:HUI -2.36% was almost back to its May low — which in turn was the lowest since the lows seen in the late 2008 global financial meltdown. Junior shares were atrocious. In a comment emailed out on Sunday afternoon, the GotGold Report ( see website ) grimly noted: "As of July 13 the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index /quotes/zigman/1478847 XX:JX -0.68% has retreated even further, to levels first reached way back a decade ago, in 2002. That's right. Back when gold was struggling to hit $350 and silver was well under $5 the ounce." But GotGold announced the courageous decision to sell more gold from its model portfolio to buy shares." ... To continue reading Peter Brimelow's offering please follow the link just below. Source: MarketWatch.com http://www.marketwatch.com/story/radical-gold-bugs-vindicated-2012-07-16 |
| The End of the Bernanke Put is Here Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:48 AM PDT
from gainspainscapital.com: For well over a year, even after Ben Bernanke admitted that the consequences of QE outweighed the benefits, the financial media world is awash with claims that QE 3 is just around the corner. It doesn't matter than it's been over a year. Nor does it matter that the Fed has staged 10 FOMC meetings without launching more QE, everyone claims QE is coming. Guess what? It's not. And I'm going to lay this idiotic theory to rest right here and now. First off, the Fed cannot launch QE because of the political climate in the US. In case you missed it, the last time the Fed engaged in a large monetary move (outside of just extending some pre-existing policy) was in November 2011 when it facilitated a coordinated Central Bank move to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements. The political response to this was extreme. Every GOP candidate under the sun began to target the Fed. Some began calling for Bernanke to be fired. Meanwhile, Obama became totally silent on defending the Fed. Let that sink in for a moment. Obama, who reappointed Bernanke, didn't defend Bernanke's actions. In fact he acted as if nothing had happened. Keep on reading @ gainspainscapital.com |
| How Close Are We to New Great Depression? Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:43 AM PDT
from cnbc.com: The risk of a new depression — a sustained, severe recession — has struck fear into the heart of markets and driven monetary policy in developed economies since the current financial crisis began. "When we broke the link between money and gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This explosion of credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there's a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression," he argued. "If this credit bubble pops, the depression could be so severe that I don't think our civilization could survive it." Keep on reading @ cnbc.com |
| U.S. dollar turns up; Bernanke sticks to script Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:41 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar turned up on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the central bank remains ready to take further action, but he declined to give details. Traders had been bracing for some hints of another round of monetary stimulus to support the economy. The dollar index DXY +0.32% , which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, turned up to 83.356 from 83.088 late in North America Monday. The euro EURUSD -0.41% fell to $1.2229 from $1.2274 Monday. Bernanke said economic data was "generally disappointing," but the lack of specific references to further quantitative easing gave some relief to the dollar. Additional QE is seen as a negative for the currency as it is considered akin to the creation of new money by the central bank. Read more on Bernanke's testimony. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Mark Hulbert: Intelligent Bet Remains on Gold Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:28 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: The gold price did very little in Far East trading on their Monday…and by the time London open rolled around at 8:00 a.m. BST, the price was pretty much unchanged from Friday's close. But right from the London open, the gold price developed a negative bias, with the low of the day [$1,576.90 spot] coming just minutes after the Comex open in New York. Then away the price went to the upside…with most of Tuesday's gains in by 9:10 a.m. Eastern time. From there it traded sideways, with the high tick [$1,596.10 spot] coming shortly before 11:30 a.m. Eastern. Almost from that point, the gold price began a slow decline that lasted all through the electronic trading session…and gold finished the Monday trading day at $1,588.60 spot…down the magnificent sum of 80 cents. Net volume was basically vapour at around 84,000 contracts. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Marc Faber Says “Gold Is Oversold Near Term” Posted: 17 Jul 2012 08:01 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Silver Trend Line Update 7.17.12 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 06:18 AM PDT |
| Marc Faber Says Bullion Oversold 'Near Term' Posted: 17 Jul 2012 05:40 AM PDT Gold inched up on Tuesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony today and Wednesday which should provide the market with information as to whether the US central bank will flood the market with more US paper. |
| Investor Interest in Gold 'Far from Overwhelming' Posted: 17 Jul 2012 05:18 AM PDT Spot market gold prices climbed as high as $1,598 an ounce during Tuesday morning's trading in London, their highest level so far this week, with markets looking ahead to Federal Reserve chairman Bern Bernanke's appearance before Congress later today. |
| Silver Update: Smoke = Fire – 7/16/12 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 05:15 AM PDT BJF discusses why silver supply is short, JPM, and Jamie D. in Silver Update 7/16/12 Smoke = Fire from brotherjohnf: from brotherjohnf: ~TVR |
| Gold versus Fractional Reserves Posted: 17 Jul 2012 05:10 AM PDT Mises.org |
| Posted: 17 Jul 2012 04:34 AM PDT By: Chris Vermeulen – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com Nat gas (UNG) has recently caught my attention. While it was in a significant downtrend for the better part of a year it has recently been consolidating right under the $20 level. A look at the daily chart shows a long move down and then recently a sideways consolidation pattern. While this is typically a continuation pattern I am beginning to believe think that the next move may be up rather than an extension of the previous down trend.
 Natural Gas Trading UNG
If we zoom in a bit and take a look at the hourly chart we are presented with two scenarios
 Natural Gas ETF Trading I'm leaning towards option one but will be waiting for a breakout confirmed with volume in either case. Get our Free Weekly Trade Ideas and Trading Education Videos: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com |
| CEOs Responsible For Standing Up Against Manipulation Posted: 17 Jul 2012 04:26 AM PDT
from jsmineset.com: My Dear Friends, The justice department has been quoted by MSM concerning their desire for jail sentences for those that are directly involved in Libor Manipulation. Barclays has said there are 17 in the US banks. This is a major change, and would mean a great deal to the unquestioned manipulation of the gold/gold shares and silver/silver shares market. The CEOs of those gold and silver companies suffering from unabashed manipulation could very well have new legal precedent to recover lost capital value for their shareholders. It is the responsibility of every gold and silver share company CEO to seek justice for their shareholders. It will take courage but that is what they are paid for. Keep on reading @ jsmineset.com |
| Goodbye Greece, Hello Hellenic Socialist Republic Posted: 17 Jul 2012 04:23 AM PDT
from johngaltfla.com: The disaster known as the Greek economy and corrupt political system is about to come to a thunderous conclusion where decades of hard Western loyalties and values purchased via post-colonial assistance from Great Britain and the willingness of U.S. President Truman to fund and support the pro-Western elements during the post World War II period. Fifty plus years later, here the world is on a brink of a collapse of modern day central bankster inspired crony capitalism and the ultimate re-establishment of a new model based on Lenin's principles. The news from Greece is getting more dire by the day. The mainstream media wants to promote the idea that everything in the world is intact, the central banking model is infallible, and the United States along with the European Union will ensure stability regardless of geopolitical circumstances and financial reality. However, the experience of a tiny nation compared to the mighty GDP's of the U.K., Germany, and the U.S. is about to remind the world that political-economy is alive and well along with the incompetent greed of those souls who insist that people are numbers and the masses will submit for basic needs versus the perceived ancient ideas of nationalism and freedom. Keep on reading @ johngaltfla.com |
| UK Authorities Give Bullion another Leg Up Posted: 17 Jul 2012 03:45 AM PDT The reason gold bullion investment specifically within the alternative asset class will benefit investors is due to gold's historically proven role as a diversifier in portfolios. Research just out from the WGC once shows what gold can add to a portfolio during good and bad times. |
| Posted: 17 Jul 2012 03:11 AM PDT Comments on what I see from looking at the markets as of July 12. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12573.27 -31.26 on falling momentum and normal volume. Most markets are moving sideways in choppy trading. The pattern is liable to continue like this for the balance of July. Investors and traders are fully aware the world at large is going weaker and selling in most markets. However, most of the pending bad news decisions have been moved to the fall of 2012 where influential people, politicians and traders hope to stay invested until at least after the national election. Price fell through the bottom of bull flag pattern today but is supported on the 200-day moving average at 12510.39. With one day left to trade this week in these weaker conditions, I would not expect much more than staying even on Friday. Resistance is the 50 day average at 12691.13. This earnings reporting season does not look promising. Watch out for July 24 and July 27 for some potential selling days. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1334.76 -6.69 on normal volume and flattening momentum. Support is the 200-day moving average at 1319.19 and the nearby bottom channel of the rising bull flag. Resistance is the 20-day average at 1342.31, which can hold down the longs trading efforts on Friday. If an important larger company reports some poor earnings, the index could quickly skid back to 1319.19 on the 200-day moving average. We forecast traders will keep the price supported, but have difficulty breaking up and through the 50-day moving average at 1341.79. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 612.65 -3.12 on normal volume and flattening momentum. Price is on support and resistance at 613.19 near a bull flag channel support line. The chart is weak but soundly supported with little movement expected tomorrow, or for the rest of this month. For July, the price has been falling on rising momentum. The nearby price of 615 is resistance with support being 610. Depending upon how negative the tone from new earnings reports, we might see flat, choppy support for another few days followed by some stronger selling in August. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2545.30 -25.69 on normal to higher volume and crossing-over-to-sell momentum. This is the leading directional index and the pattern is more negative than the other stock index charts. Today's close broke 2550 major support but not by much. There is now major support for the Nasdaq on the 200-day moving average at 2508.27. This chart, more than the other stock indexes, is showing us a general stock markets breakdown moving toward a correction. In the third week of July last year, the prices of these indexes fell hard. The Nasdaq was down over -300 points in August, 2011 skidding from above 2400 to below 2100; landing near 2050 support. That event may not happen again but we could easily sell down -175 points from 2500 on a technical correction. It could be even more depending upon earnings news and European news. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 151.62 -0.06 on previously falling momentum, now flattening and supporting the price. Today's close above 150.00 hard resistance at 151.62 signals Europe is unraveling and the US Dollar should be rising some more. We cannot see anything to help Europe for now so we expect 151.00 is new long bond support that could move higher to 152.00-152.50 resistance. New price support is 151.00. Should some of the bond auctions in Europe improve even a little, the 30-year bond could move back toward 150.00 support. We think this happens on jaw-boning news not on actual trades. This market is supported and sideways for July with potential for even higher prices next month. XAU: Closed at 147.88 -0.65 with three selling chart patterns. Price is headed to 145.00 support. Momentum has crossed to sell and moving lower. The important metal to shares ratio has turned down. The next lower support is 145 with a possibility for a touch and support at 140.00. Resistance is 150.00 with one channel line and all three moving averages above the close as nearby resistance. Those four signals are all bearish. More selling on Friday to 145.00, or more is just ahead. Gold: Closed at 1571.90 -4.00 on flat-lined momentum but with a price that has been strongly supported at 1550. We show two wide spread touch points for basing in December, 2011 and in May, of 2012. There are more nearby attempts at new bases on 1550, but the latest attempts have been higher closes than the two lows. What we are seeing is higher lows, which are bullish. Yet, the price continues to travel sideways in choppy trading. We might see this trading action continue all the way until the first of August like last year when the new rally began with some real power. Gold wants to be a buyer but other market factors are suppressing the price for now. Watch for more attempts in selling trying to touch between $1,550 to $1,565, in an extended choppy price range, until the end of July. Silver: Closed at 27.20 +0.08 on flat-lined momentum. Silver is bottom-bouncing around 27.48 to 28.45. The old major low of 26.62 lurks nearby and is drawing the price toward that number. Like the gold, the summer months for trading precious metals are not a good cycle until we can reach the trading weeks of August into early September. Last year, silver moved up in July after the first week. September is a good month for higher silver prices on the cycles and seasons. Keep in mind silver has a commercial-industrial component and price suppression can be a factor of lower electronics goods sales. Primarily, the lower prices are normal cycles and seasons and a market hit hard with severe over-selling. This trading action takes some time repair but we still see the price near $38.48 after Labor Day this fall. US Dollar: Closed at 83.61 +0.14 on crossing over to buy side momentum with a rising price. The falling Euro has caused the Dollar to rise. The current chart moved up and through a potential bear double top. Instead, the price keeps rising. As the Euro currency is the inverse dollar trade, the dollar could be headed for 90.00 should the Euro collapse down to 108-110 major support, which we expect over time. A rising dollar makes USA goods more costly including grain and other commodity exports. USA commercial exports being more expensive in a tough recession, puts more pressure on American companies exporting to other nations. We see no relief on this problem until after the November 6 election. New support is 83.50 with resistance at 84.50. Price is far above all moving averages, which is bullish. Expect higher prices that could flatten but not sell under 82.50 for several weeks. Crude Oil: Closed at 86.08 +0.05 on rising momentum with trading currently in an extended sideways choppy pattern. Crude oil on the cycles passed through the spring changeover and strong selling. More importantly, global recession is now obvious with skidding numbers coming in from all over the world. Asia was the last bastion of stronger economies but no longer. As a result, oil sold down on higher supply and weaker demand. The price on a low was near the higher $70's in later June. For now, new buying appeared on an oversold condition. The Saudi's prefer the price at $85.00; right where it is for now. Iran wants $100 as they are broke and suffering sanctions tantamount to a blockade of their exported oil. However today, it was reported Turkey traded Iran gold for oil and Iran got some relief. The trading range is 84.50 to 88.50. Look for prices to weaker and sell down with some milder rallies until later August when the heating oil contracts begin to move on the buy side. Oil is flat to down for now. CRB: Closed at 290.27 -0.52 on rising momentum but with price selling lower in a tighter trading range. With grain topping out on being overbought, crude oil and natural gas going sideways, and precious metals doing the same, we expect the CRB to trade between 285 and 295 for the rest of July. The price of 290.00 is both support and resistance. Expect the summer doldrums for July with more selling in August until fall buying markets can get a grip in early August. – Traderrog   This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 17 2012 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 03:00 AM PDT |
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