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- Summer Of Consolidation For The U.S. Dollar?
- 3 REITs With Solid Earnings Trends That Analysts Love
- Large Caps With +2.5% Yields Going Ex-Dividend The 2nd Week Of July
- Silver Paradigm Shift: Devil’s Metal Hits 19-Month Low As Funds Eye Quarter-End Position Shifts
- John Embry on Gold, Silver, Currencies and Commodities
- Gold vs paper money: Which should we trust more?
- Deflation is the Biggest Catalyst for Precious Metals
- When Governments Spend Wealth Instead of Building It
- PRECIOUS-Gold edges down, pauses after EU deal rally
- ‘Perfect Rally’ Eluded Bulls, Slaughtered Bears
- Gold futures decline as Europe glow fades
- Bull's Eye Investing (Almost) Ten Years Later
- An Unusual Week Ahead
- “Conflict gold” trade continues in face of U.S. law
- Three Super Marios, The Debt Monetization Game & Gold
- Gold Market Update
- Trends in Junior Gold Exploration
- Gold & Silver Will Move Higher As Safe Haven
- Ephemeral Markets Euphoria on Europe
- Commerzbank & Barclays Capital Positive on Gold
- View From the Turret: Massive Short Squeeze Doesn’t Change Anything
- Copper & Crude Oil Vulnerable as Risk Assets Reverse
- Bullion ‘Could Benefit’ from Policymakers Actions
- John Embry on Gold, Silver, Currencies & Commodities
- EU bank moves lift precious metals
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 02 2012
| Summer Of Consolidation For The U.S. Dollar? Posted: 02 Jul 2012 04:54 AM PDT By Kathy Lien: The third quarter has officially begun and the sweltering heat indicates that we are well into summer. Thanks to the long hours and hard efforts of European leaders last week, investors will finally be able to relax and enjoy their shorter workweeks and vacations. By announcing a banking union that was clearly enough to satisfy the low expectations of investors, EU leaders effectively neutralized the near term risks in the market. Volatility came crashing down as equities and currencies soared across the globe. Most importantly Spanish and Italian 10 year bond yields dropped back to manageable levels with yields in Spain moving far away from the 7 percent danger zone. On Friday, we outlined all the reasons why the EU announcements have not ended Europe's sovereign debt crisis but as Traders First and Analysts Second, we have to respect the price action. Sentiment shifted with the plans for a banking Complete Story » |
| 3 REITs With Solid Earnings Trends That Analysts Love Posted: 02 Jul 2012 04:26 AM PDT By ZetaKap: When the future of the global economy is uncertain, finding a smart REIT investment can seem like finding a needle in a haystack. Today we aim to find those needles by focusing in on REITs that have a few key traits: strong track records of earnings, and votes of confidence from industry analysts. We came up with a pretty interesting list. The Net Margin is a profitability metric that illustrates, by percentage, how much of every dollar earned gets turned into a bottom line profit. This is just one of many profitability metrics used by investors and analysts to better understand what the company is being left with at the end of the day. Generally, a firm that can expand its net profit margins over a period of time will see its stock price rise as well due to the trend of increasing profitability. Net Margin = Net Income/Total Revenue Complete Story » |
| Large Caps With +2.5% Yields Going Ex-Dividend The 2nd Week Of July Posted: 02 Jul 2012 04:18 AM PDT By StockPandit: Dividend stocks are more attractive to investors these days due to the decline in interest rates and with the recent reduction in the tax rate on most dividends. Also, investors like dividend stocks as long-term investments, as these dividend payments tend to protect the stock price from the market volatility that affects non-dividend paying stocks. However, careful analysis of dividend stocks and choosing the right dividend stocks at the right time is critical for investors. In this article, I will focus on large cap stocks with a high dividend yield and their ex-dividend date within the next week (July 9 to July 13). These stocks are screened based on the following criteria:
1. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX): Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Complete Story » |
| Silver Paradigm Shift: Devil’s Metal Hits 19-Month Low As Funds Eye Quarter-End Position Shifts Posted: 02 Jul 2012 03:52 AM PDT from silvervigilante.com: By the end of the day Thursday, silver has crossed below its 18-month bottom of $26.25. It broke through this on the bid before 11:30 AM Pacific Standard Time, west coast United States. Therefore, expect possible further weakness tonight on the Globex. Silver fell quickly down to $26.13 for a spike-low that might be the bringer of warning for the future. Calls are being made for a weaker euro, such as is covered here. More pressure is being put on the United States financials, and thus the stock market, as $9 billion is reported lost at JPMorgan. Both of these signal bearish for precious metals, including silver. With $26.75 now a memory since the metals fell Thursday and Friday of last week, and $26.25 barely hanging on, if at all, it is reasonable to conclude that the most recent medium-term paradigm for silver has broken down. Will silver bounce off this low? It very well might. But, finance capital has, through their manipulation of the silver market, demonstrated their awesome patience. Keep on reading @ silvervigilante.com |
| John Embry on Gold, Silver, Currencies and Commodities Posted: 02 Jul 2012 03:48 AM PDT
from 24hgold.com: The Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present the following insightful interview with John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP, where he plays an instrumental role in the corporate and investment policy of the firm. Mr. Embry, who is a world renowned expert on the gold market and on gold and precious metals mining shares, currently focuses on the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund. Mr. Embry has researched the gold sector since 1963 and has more than thirty years of industry experience as a portfolio management specialist. After graduating from the University of Manitoba with a Bachelor of Commerce degree, Mr. Embry began his investment career as a stock selection analyst and Portfolio Manager at Great West Life, where he later became Vice President of Pension Investments for the entire firm. After 23 years with the company, he became a Partner in United Bond and Share, an investment counseling firm acquired by Royal Bank in 1987. At Royal Bank, Mr. Embry was named Vice-President, Equities and Portfolio Manager at RBC Global Investment Management, a $33 billion organization where he oversaw $5 billion in assets, including the flagship $2.9 billion Royal Canadian Equity Fund and the $250 million Royal Precious Metals Fund, which was the #1 ranked fund in Canada for its 2002 net performance of 153%.Hera Research Newsletter (HRN): Thank you for joining us today. Let's talk about gold stocks. John Embry: Gold stocks represent a tremendous value in relation to the price of gold and to the fundamentals of the sector. There has been tremendous shorting activity by hedge funds and, as a result, dedicated gold funds have experienced redemptions. Retail investors, who are natural buyers of these stocks, have been annihilated by the price action. This has created one of the finest opportunities, if not the finest opportunity, that I have ever seen. Keep on reading @ 24hgold.com |
| Gold vs paper money: Which should we trust more? Posted: 02 Jul 2012 03:43 AM PDT
from bbc.co.uk: A popular solution to the financial crisis has been to print more money, but is there another way of fixing our economy? Would the financial system be more stable if each pound, dollar or euro in our pocket was once again backed by gold? Brian from Manchester has lost faith in money. After selling his house, he decided to turn his cash into something he says he can trust: Gold. "I started in 2005 and now I've got £200,000 worth – about half of what I own – in gold. "If I kept all my money in the bank, the value of my work would either devalue over the long-term or it would be wiped out." Brian's worry is that inflation will erode the value of his savings over time, or worse still, that fragile banks and governments will fail to protect them in another financial crisis. nd he is not alone in these fears. Frances, who lives in London, sold her flat in 2008 and invested £40,000 worth of the profit in gold, which she bought via the internet and keeps in a vault in Switzerland. "I don't fear a financial Armageddon," she tells Radio 4′s Analysis, "but I do fear governments, in their desperate search for wealth, constantly printing more money to deal with the debt that they have at the expense of people like me. Keep on reading @ bbc.co.uk |
| Deflation is the Biggest Catalyst for Precious Metals Posted: 02 Jul 2012 03:32 AM PDT Bonds are elevated, gold is rising in real terms and the global economy is disappointing expectations. Although extremely oversold and forming a major bottom in a long-term sense, the precious metals sector is waiting for a catalyst to springboard its next cyclical bull market. |
| When Governments Spend Wealth Instead of Building It Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:41 AM PDT
from dailyreckoning.com.au: "The US seems to have gotten the worst of it," said a French friend this morning. We were taken aback. Everyone knows Europe is in a state of permanent crisis. The US seems solid by comparison, no? "Now that the Supreme Court has approved Obamacare, you have the same problems we have in Europe, social welfare spending with no limits…plus you have your colossal military spending. You have both 'bread and circuses,' just like the ancient Romans. You are doomed." Yes, dear reader, we came to the fork in the road after the 9/11 attack. And the government took it! And now the feds can fork over whoever and whatever they want. No kidding. They just have to think of it as a tax. Here's AP's report: Health care law survives with Roberts' help WASHINGTON (AP) — America's historic health care overhaul, certain now to touch virtually every citizen's life, narrowly survived an election-year battle at the Supreme Court Thursday with the improbable help of conservative Chief Justice John Roberts. But the ruling, by a 5-4 vote, also gave Republicans unexpected ammunition to energize supporters for the fall campaign against President Barack Obama, the bill's champion and for next year's vigorous efforts to repeal the law as a new federal tax. Keep on reading @ dailyreckoning.com.au |
| PRECIOUS-Gold edges down, pauses after EU deal rally Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:30 AM PDT
from in.reuters.com: * Gold retreats with euro, oil after Friday rally (Adds comments; updates prices) Keep on reading @ in.reuters.com |
| ‘Perfect Rally’ Eluded Bulls, Slaughtered Bears Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:29 AM PDT
from rickackerman.com: Explosive rallies like the one we saw on Friday are opportunistic, launched to milk the last ounce of buying power from ostensibly positive news – in this case, word that Europe had come up with yet another plan to deal with its financial crisis. Of course, the very word "milk" implies that there were agents working behind the scenes to stage-manage the rally. This is not exactly correct, although it is close enough to the truth to stand scrutiny. Here's how it works. Although we all "know" that Europe cannot possibly grow its way out of its mess, and that sooner or later the euro currency system will unravel, the mere pretense of doing something about it will always be sufficient to buy more time, at least until the day arrives that the system actually does fail. This means that those who have bet on the collapse of the banking system will continue to lose money until the day they are right, but not before. And while that day may seem inevitable to many of us, betting on it – especially with put options whose value decays with each passing week — presupposes a gift for timing that few humans possess. Indeed, it's possible that perfunctory bailouts of no real consequence could keep the markets afloat for yet more months or years, if not indefinitely. This prospect should not seem farfetched to anyone who has watched the cycles of feigned hopefulness alternate with periods of disappointment and despair. In the lingo of chartists, we might say that waves of mass psychology have been "trading in a range." Keep on reading @ rickackerman.com |
| Gold futures decline as Europe glow fades Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:26 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures declined Monday as the euphoria following Europe's plan to shore up its banking sector wore off and investors cut their bets the metal's prices will go higher. Gold for August delivery GCQ2 -0.37% declined $7.50, or 0.5%, to trade at $1.596.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange. The precious metal on Friday surged $53.80, or 3.5%, to settle at $1,604.20 an ounce, as investors cheered the plan to stabilize Europe's banking sector. The price rise was not accompanied by inflows to exchange-traded funds and investors reduced their bets gold prices will go up. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETF backed by gold, recorded outflows of 2 metric tons on Friday. That is an indication Friday's rally for gold "is likely to have been driven mainly by speculative financial investors," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note to clients Monday. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Bull's Eye Investing (Almost) Ten Years Later Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:22 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Bull's Eye Investing (Almost) Ten Years Later It's been almost a decade since I co-authored with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research some research in this letter that later became chapters five and six of Bull's Eye Investing. Although the ten-year anniversary of the book is actually 2013, the current vulnerabilities in the markets encouraged us to revisit the material a bit early, to prepare you for what lies ahead. Reflecting back to yesteryear gives us the opportunity to assess the accuracy of our insights. I am in Tuscany at the moment, watching the sun set over the Tuscan hills; so I will thank Ed for doing the heavy lifting in this letter while I get to relax, although there is so much going on and I am such a junkie that I am forced to get my current-events fix every day. I must say, the news certainly provides some very pure adrenaline rushes. But more on that at the end. For now we take the longer view of the stock market that I first wrote about at the end of the last century, and to which Ed added some real meat in early 2003. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:22 AM PDT
from tfmetalsreport.com: It's going to be a weird one. A big up day last Friday. CoT Tuesday is ahead of a market-closed Wednesday and then Friday is the next BLSBS report. All in all, it's very hard to predict what will happen. You know what that means don't you? Another hat contest! First of all, today will likely be flat-to-down. As Ranting Andy likes to point out, The Cartel rarely/never allows a second UP day after a big move. So far, that's about how things are playing out. Gold is down $5 and silver is unch, both on light volume. Tomorrow is CoT Tuesday and the last trading day until Thursday (American Independence Day is Wednesday). You'll recall that Friday, June 1 was a $58 UP day. Monday, the 4th was down $8 and CoT Tuesday, the 5th was up $3. Does this gives us any clues following last Friday's $54 UP day? Yes and no. Yes for today, tomorrow not so much because of the Wednesday holiday. I would expect a bit of an UPward bias on Thursday ahead of the BLSBS. Why? To me, there's a pretty strong likelihood that the BLSBS on Friday is going to be a stinker. Last month was +69,000 and this was only because of a 200,000+ birth/death adjustment. Given the economic data since and the uncertainty surrounding the Obamacare SCOTUS decision, the odds to seem to favor a very light number. Something less than 50,000? I can almost hear Hampton Pearson now: "UP 27,000. Non-farm payrolls for June were up just 27,000″. We'll see. Keep on reading @ tfmetalsreport.com |
| “Conflict gold” trade continues in face of U.S. law Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:21 AM PDT from reuters.com: (Reuters) – Gold traders in the eastern Congo district of Ituri have heard of the Dodd-Frank act, or "Obama's law" as it's known here, but don't see why it's got anything to do with them. "I struggle to understand this Obama's law," says George Lobho, one of hundreds of traders operating out of tiny wooden shacks in the muddy streets of Mongbwalu. "What does it mean?" Ituri is one of many areas of the country to have experienced bitter ethnic conflict between rival tribes in recent years. Massacres have left tens of thousands dead. It is this fighting that led U.S. authorities to take the unprecedented step of naming Congo in section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank financial regulation act, which says U.S.-listed companies that source gold, tungsten, tantalum and tin from Congo or its neighbors must assure the U.S. stock exchange regulator that their business is not helping fund conflict. Keep on reading @ reuters.com |
| Three Super Marios, The Debt Monetization Game & Gold Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:17 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: On the heels of a massive rally in stocks, oil & gold, on Friday, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, writes exclusively for King World News to let readers know about the 'Three Super Marios' and 'The Debt Monetization Game.' He also discussed gold and the mining shares, but first, here is what Pento wrote about what is happening with the Three Super Marios: "In the past few days there appears to have been a huge victory scored by Europe's three Italian Super-Marios. But appearances can be deceiving. Mario Balotelli scored two goals for Italy's Azzurri, in a victory against the Germans during Thursday's Euro 2012 semi-final Football game." Michael Pento continues: "Then, Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Monti, stared down his German counterpart at the E.U. Summit and demanded that there be no austerity strings attached to a 500 billion Euro ($630 billion) bailout fund, which he insisted must also be allowed to purchase Italian bonds directly. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Posted: 02 Jul 2012 02:08 AM PDT |
| Trends in Junior Gold Exploration Posted: 02 Jul 2012 01:51 AM PDT Zealllc |
| Gold & Silver Will Move Higher As Safe Haven Posted: 02 Jul 2012 01:41 AM PDT |
| Ephemeral Markets Euphoria on Europe Posted: 02 Jul 2012 12:35 AM PDT Friday's EU news lifted gold prices in a hurry but it appears that the $1,600 resistance level proved to be…resistant to further assaults for the time being. The yellow metal started the abbreviated trading week in profit-raking mode as did the rest of the precious metals' complex. |
| Commerzbank & Barclays Capital Positive on Gold Posted: 02 Jul 2012 12:01 AM PDT Gold ticked lower in Asia prior to a brief bounce in Europe prior to further losses which have seen gold fall to 1,590.40 USD/oz. Gold is marginally lower in pounds at 1,015.80 GBP/oz. and marginally higher in euros and Swiss francs at 1,263.30 EUR/oz. and 1,517.70 CHF/oz. |
| View From the Turret: Massive Short Squeeze Doesn’t Change Anything Posted: 01 Jul 2012 11:45 PM PDT
The second quarter went out with a bang as the S&P 500 tacked on 2.5% in Friday's session, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied a full three percentage points. Given the poor economic picture and the bearish sentiment on the street, it's easy to see how this was the perfect opportunity to roll out a massive short squeeze. Leading up to the end of the quarter, bearish traders were gaining confidence, as a trifecta of major macro issues converged:
With a significant amount of pessimistic sentiment, and the technical picture looking very negative, traders were gravitating to the bearish side of the ledger. German rhetoric was becoming more hard-nosed against shouldering the debt burden – leading to a major showdown for Europe. So when Merkel flipped scripts and offered concessions, traders were caught off guard and leaning too far in the wrong direction. It didn't help matters that this was the last day of the quarter – a prime window dressing session. Seizing the opportunity, institutional long-only investors were able to add pressure, forcing more shorts to cover and driving up prices to be marked-to-market for the quarterly reports. So as we head into the second half of the year, we find ourselves at a very interesting juncture. Short-term, the buying pressure is strong and it would not be abnormal for a major short squeeze to last for several trading sessions. With a holiday-shortened week in the US, lower liquidity could exacerbate the action and allow for a larger price movement. But fundamentally, there still isn't much to get excited about. Europe STILL has a major debt crisis and there is no easy solution. Even Germany's concessions are not going to be enough to turn the tide. China is still a great candidate for a hard landing, and the US is still on course to re-enter a recessionary environment. We're keeping most of our powder dry, but licking our chops at some of the short opportunities that are setting up. If the rally fizzles and fear comes back into the market again, the reset caused by Friday's massive push higher could give us some great entry prices – along with plenty of room for bearish trends to run. Below are a few of the bullish and bearish areas we are focusing on for the first week in this new quarter… Sign Up For the Mercenary Dispatch Get our best content delivered FREE to your inbox! Check out the Mercenary Dispatch page to learn more. Energy Extended – More Short-Term Opportunities As the global economic picture has worsened, energy has been one of the areas that has been hit the hardest. Oil prices have spent the entire second quarter under pressure, with the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude ETN (OIL) remaining below its 20 EMA since the beginning of May. That's a long time for a major commodity to remain under consistent, almost daily selling pressure. But as we neared the end of the quarter, crude found buyers at a major support level dating back to the second half of 2010. Given the bearish sentiment and the short-term extended price action, the energy complex offered a great reward-to-risk opportunity (from the long side).
Last week we ended up taking short-term bullish trades on both Penn Virginia (PVA) and Swift Energy (SFY). The snap-back action allowed us to capture quick profits as documented in real-time via the Mercenary Live Feed. With natural gas improving significantly over the second quarter, and crude oil bouncing off long-term support, we could continue to see strong bullish opportunities in energy producers as well as transmission, storage, and refining stocks. Financials For a Bounce…  The financial sector represents another short-term bullish area that we are active in. As traders react to the prospects of a temporary European resolution (key word being temporary), sentiment levels for banks could be in for a dramatic shift. PE ratios for regional and national banks are at levels that reflect a significant amount of uncertainty for the industry. But meanwhile, bank profits have continued to hold up well, and most bank stocks are paying attractive dividends. There is still too much balance sheet (and off-balance sheet) risk for these stocks to once again be considered "widow & orphan" safety investments. But a decent yield and relative value, along with a shift in the Europe perspective, should be enough to keep bank stocks in an uptrend at least for the next few weeks. On Friday, we took a long position in both Wells Fargo (WFC) as well as U.S. Bancorp (USB). Both positions were set up and communicated to Live Feed subscribers before the open. Both WFC and USB gapped through our stop / limit buy orders but pulled back during the session to hit our limit prices before trading higher to close out the quarter. As long as the major banks avoid an ugly earnings season, and barring any immediate reversal of fortune in Europe, banking stocks should continue to melt higher. We're not expecting a major long-term trend to hold up, but given the attractive yield and sentiment shift, we should be able to capture a number of profitable trades.
High-Profile Retail Stocks Still Weak On the retail side, there are a number of popular growth stocks that are tracing out major topping patterns. Many of these names have held up well as the higher-end US consumer has continued to spend. But as the economy grinds back towards a recessionary environment, these stocks are now coming under pressure. Panera Bread (PNRA), Coach Inc. (COH) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) are all good examples of formerly strong growth stocks that are now breaking down. We have been short COH for more than a month now, with half profits already taken off the table and a trend position continuing to run for the second half. The luxury handbag maker sliced through a key support level last week before rebounding Friday in-line with the rest of the market. With partial profits already taken off the table, and 14% unrealized profits on the second half, we have the ability to give this trending position some elbow room, while still guaranteeing an even larger profit on the second half if we are stopped out. LULU looks particularly interesting after breaking sharply below the 200 EMA last week, and then staging a half-hearted rally on Friday. If the stock can hold up for another session or two, we should have a good opportunity to enter with a relatively tight risk envelope and plenty of room for the stock to drop.
Heading towards the open, S&P futures are pointing to a flat start to the second quarter. Trading desks will likely be manned by second string professionals this week as record heat and a holiday week gives most traders an excuse to hit the Hamptons early. We're keeping our exposure light as well, and watching to see if the market's new strength has legs, or simply sets up better entries for our short candidates. Trade 'em well this week! Mike McD (mike@mercenarytrader.com) p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center!  |
| Copper & Crude Oil Vulnerable as Risk Assets Reverse Posted: 01 Jul 2012 11:09 PM PDT Commodity prices are correcting broadly lower overnight as markets correct after Friday's sharp surge in risk-linked assets and tumble in the US dollar, a move driven by an unexpected outcome to the EU leaders' summit. |
| Bullion ‘Could Benefit’ from Policymakers Actions Posted: 01 Jul 2012 10:51 PM PDT US dollar gold bullion prices hit $1,597 an ounce during Monday morning trading in London – in line with where they ended last week – while European stock markets ticked higher following the release of better-than-expected European manufacturing data. |
| John Embry on Gold, Silver, Currencies & Commodities Posted: 01 Jul 2012 10:03 PM PDT The chief investment strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP doesn't mince words and his track record speaks for itself. A defender of the gold standard, John Embry sees gold and silver as currencies competing against the US dollar and the euro. |
| EU bank moves lift precious metals Posted: 01 Jul 2012 09:45 PM PDT Gold and silver prices surged on Friday on market hopes of a "breakthrough moment" in the eurozone debt crisis, following the conclusion of the latest European Council meeting in Brussels. ... |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 02 2012 Posted: 01 Jul 2012 09:00 PM PDT |
Welcome to the third quarter of a genuinely nutty trading year…
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