saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Fed/Gold headlines reserve status change 6/29/12
- Where we going from here...
- Save the Euro? Who for?
- Junior Gold Exploration 2
- Billionaire John Paulson's Top 5 Picks Paying Dividends
- Gold Gets “Shot in the Arm” from Europe
- Europeans Storing Gold in Switzerland On Concerns About Inflation and Systemic Risk
- Gold Traders Extend Bullish Call on European Debt Crisis
- PRECIOUS-Gold rises on EU pledge; eyes worst quarter in 8 yrs
- Garnering Golden Nuggets from Crisis Investing
- Gold, silver rally as dollar sinks after EU bank plan
- Daily Outlook For Gold And Silver - June 29
- Why Is Silver Losing Its Shine?
- Peter Schiff – Europe, Gold & The Health Care Bill
- Hathaway – Confidence Severely Damaged, Chaos to Accelerate
- Greyerz – Greatest Financial Collapse The World Has Ever Seen
- How much deflation before we get to the hyperinflation of money printing?
- Why Bear Markets Are So Hard to Short
- California Is Not Spain, Uganda, Or Greece; But Stockton Sure Is: Largest US City Bankruptcy Is Now Official
- Silver’s split personality feeds steep price drop
- Welcome to the Currency War, Part 2: Massive Euro Devaluation
- Daily Pfennig: Eurozone Leaders Surprise The Markets..
- Squeeze Play
- Hey Silver Bugs, “Act Like a Man!”
- Financial markets facing a perfect storm as in 2008?
- THE CRB JUST FORMED A FINAL THREE YEAR CYCLE LOW
| Fed/Gold headlines reserve status change 6/29/12 Posted: 29 Jun 2012 05:54 AM PDT According to the draft documents released, when gold is currently held as an asset, it is risk weighted at 15% – that is, a 15% haircut is taken on its current value for capital adequacy calculations. (See page 86 of the attached Federal Reserve document.) However, in this same document, they are proposing that there be no (zero) discount. That would then put gold on the same basis as cash. http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/6709 and another here. http://www.blacklistednews.com/Gold_...38/38/Y/M.html |
| Posted: 29 Jun 2012 05:45 AM PDT |
| Posted: 29 Jun 2012 05:02 AM PDT
from golemxiv.co.uk: This piece was written as part of a debate currently being run by Open Democracy called "Writing on the wall for the Eurozone". You can read the other pieces written for the debate at the Open Democracy site. http://www.opendemocracy.net/freeform-tags/writing-on-wall-for-eurozone The strongest force holding the Euro together is the political force of creditors. Were the currency to collapse, much of the debt would collapse with it. So the question is, who are we saving the Euro for? Once again, George Soros exhorts European leaders to save the Euro. But what does this curious phrase 'Save the Euro' actually mean? The Euro is not like the Giant Panda: a cuddly creature that ornaments our world. The Euro is not one thing. It is different things to different groups. It's a currency used in day to day transactions by people who live in a group of semi-sovereign nations. It is part of the underpinning of the European political experiment we call the EU. It is a settlement currency which rivals the Dollar. As such it is part of Europe's challenge to American hegemony both financial and political. It is the currency in which a huge amount of wealth is denominated. And last but by absolutely no means least it is one of the global currencies in which a truly titanic amount of private and sovereign debt is denominated. Keep on reading @ golemxiv.co.uk |
| Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:52 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Over the course of gold's secular bull the demand for this precious metal has skyrocketed. And as a result gold's primary supply source, mine production, has been forced to respond. Thankfully with the price of gold soaring to all-time highs, there's been no shortage of mining companies hitting the hills to look for the next deposit. As a result of more and more miners looking for gold, more and more gold is being found. And thanks to an industry-wide boost in capex to develop these finds, this bull's exploration cycle has recently started to bear its fruit. This fruit is production growth for three years running, including a 2011 tally that came in at an all-time high. In peeling away the layers of this production growth, it is no doubt interesting to see where in the world gold's mined supply is coming from. And thanks to detailed country-level production data provided by various government geological agencies and private consultancies, we've been able to see exactly how global gold-mining trends have played out. Interestingly from a production standpoint our current gold bull has a radically-different look than those in the past. We've seen powerhouse countries of yore take huge falls from mining grace, while other countries that had not been known for their gold mining have grabbed this bull by the horns to turn out huge production increases. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Billionaire John Paulson's Top 5 Picks Paying Dividends Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:49 AM PDT By Dividendinvestr: John Paulson established his investment firm Paulson & Co. in 1994. His firm's principal investment strategy is based on the merger arbitrage and event-driven investments. The company now also applies a macro-sectoral approach. Paulson became famous after successfully short-selling subprime mortgages in 2007, making as much as $3.7 billion on his bets. According to Forbes, in 2010, Paulson earned $4.9 billion in take-home pay, setting a new hedge fund industry record. With a net worth of $12.5 billion, he is ranked 61st on the list of Forbes Billionaires and 25th richest person in the United States. Paulson & Co. currently manages eight hedge funds: Paulson Advantage Fund, Paulson Advantage Plus Fund, Paulson Partners, Paulson Enhanced, Paulson Recovery, Paulson Real Estate Recovery, Gold fund, and Credit Opportunities Fund. After a successful 2007 and 2008, in which its funds returned 51.74% and 6.28%, respectively, beating the S&P500 by a significant margin, Paulson Complete Story » |
| Gold Gets “Shot in the Arm” from Europe Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:34 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: SPOT MARKET gold prices hit $1584 an ounce ahead of Friday's US trading – a 2.3% rise from the previous day's low – while stocks, commodities and the Euro also rallied following news of an "important" agreement at the European Union summit in Brussels. Silver prices climbed to $27.38 by lunchtime in London – a 4.6% gain on yesterday's low. "Resistance [for gold prices] is at the top of the past week's range in the $1587-88 area," says technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, who add that further resistance is seen at $1625. News of an agreement among European leaders on the use of bailout funds ""has been positive for the Euro and positive for confidence in general," adds Scotia's head of precious metals Simon Weeks. "[This] means that equities and commodities, including gold for the time being, have all received a shot in the arm." European leaders meeting in Brussels have asked the European Council to consider proposals for the creation of a single Eurozone banking supervisor "as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012″, an summit statement issued early on Friday said. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Europeans Storing Gold in Switzerland On Concerns About Inflation and Systemic Risk Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:27 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Today's AM fix was USD 1,569.50, EUR 1,248.01, and GBP 1,006.09 per ounce. Silver is trading at $27.26/oz, €21.25/oz and £17.54/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,420.25/oz, palladium at $576.20/oz and rhodium at $1,190/oz. Gold fell $17.70 or 1.12% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,557.00/oz. Gold climbed over 1% overnight in Asia and maintained those gains in European trading. Gold rose after European leaders agreed a "deal" which has helped bring down soaring borrowing costs in Italy and Spain. Stock and commodity markets have greeted the news with enthusiasm and seen strong gains. Peripheral Euro nations bonds have seen gains in a relief rally and their yields fallen although Italian bond yields remain over 6%. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com |
| Gold Traders Extend Bullish Call on European Debt Crisis Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:23 AM PDT
from bloomberg.com: Gold traders are bullish for a sixth week on speculation that Europe's debt crisis will boost demand from investors seeking to protect their wealth and drive prices higher after moving to within 1 percentage of a bear market. Sixteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect a rally next week and 10 were bearish. Another five were neutral. Investors added almost $2 billion to holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products this month, the most since November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Hedge funds and other speculators have increased bets on a rally for four consecutive weeks, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Spain formally asked for a bailout for its banks on June 25 and Cyprus that day became the fifth member of the 17-nation euro zone to ask for outside help. European leaders agreed today to ease repayment rules for emergency loans to Spanish banks and relax conditions on potential help for Italy. Gold came close to a bear market in May as some investors sold bullion to cover losses in stock markets as $7 trillion was erased from global equities in about two months. Keep on reading @ bloomberg.com |
| PRECIOUS-Gold rises on EU pledge; eyes worst quarter in 8 yrs Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:19 AM PDT
from in.reuters.com: * Gold jumps more than 1 pct, erasing June losses (Adds physical buying, updates prices) Keep on reading @ in.reuters.com |
| Garnering Golden Nuggets from Crisis Investing Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:12 AM PDT "A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers…. "'Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we're in World War II or World War whatever.' "The Rogers solution: 'Let the people who have failed, go bankrupt,' he says. 'The banks and bondholders would lose money, but then you start over.' "That's classic capitalism, Rogers says. 'Bailing out zombie companies and banks has never worked. Look at Japan.' "But free markets alone can't solve the problem, Rogers says. Governments must help choose the winners and losers – and quickly. "'If you wait two years from now, five years from now, when no government has any credibility and nobody will give you any more money, then it's finished. You better get yourself a rifle and head to Asia.'… "Rogers isn't alone in predicting such a dire scenario. "Bailouts and loose monetary policy won't create lasting economic improvements but will push up inflation rates that will send the economy tanking and wealthy investors seeing half of their investments wiped out, says Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report…. "The government, however, won't be able to prop up the economy forever, and all that borrowing will come due. When that support fades, the economy and markets will retreat and retreat hard, creating massive losses for investors, especially when inflation rates rise due to the sheer volumes of liquidity in the system. "'I think somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction. That usually happens either through very high inflation or through social unrest or through war or credit-market collapse,' Faber recently told CNBC." (emphasis added) "Jim Rogers: European Bailouts May Lead to Another World War" Dan Weil, moneynews.com, 6/22/12 Rogers' statement – "Bailouts May Lead to Another World War" – sounds extreme but, given the facts it is not, really – repeated Bailouts may result in war. Nor are Rogers', Marc Faber's and Deepcaster's views that QE et al. is driving us toward much Higher Inflation. The indisputable fact is that Piling Debt (in order to continue bailing out the Mega-Banks) upon already unpayable Debt, is Unsustainable. But one can Garner the Golden 'Nuggets' of Information and, indeed, Profit Opportunities, if one correctly forecasts the consequences of certain ongoing Trends. Consider, for example, Rogers' conclusion about the result of continuing this "Bailout" Course of Action, is likely correct: "eventually it just collapses." And his proposed Solution "let the people who have failed go bankrupt" is also reasonable. Indeed, it is a variant of the successful (Iceland is thriving again) Icelandic Solution: Debt Repudiation, i.e., force the Mega-banks to accept Defaults. These "Bankruptcies" (defaults) would rid the system of debt which cannot be paid under any reasonably likely Economic Scenario. Significantly, Deepcaster, Jim Rogers, and Marc Faber all agree on one increasingly threatening consequence fo Bailouts to Infinity: "Bailouts and loose monetary policy won't create lasting Economic Improvements but will push up Inflation Rates. Indeed they have already! The Central Banks grossly excessive Monetary Inflation has pushed up Food and Energy prices around the World. And the recent blip down in Crude Prices will not last, we forecast. N.B. Food Commodity Prices are Rising Again, (Corn has a $6 handle, Wheat a $7 handle, and Soybeans a $14 handle AGAIN! and the elevated Order of Magnitude of these Essential Food Prices is not mainly weather related) notwithstanding other recent Commodities Price Takedowns. This reveals a 'Golden Nugget' Opportunity – essential Food Producers are likely to be Inflation-Resistant and Profitable regardless of Economic Conditions. The Real Numbers, (as opposed to Bogus Official Statistics) show Inflation in the U.S., for example, is already Threshold Hyperinflationary, at 9.3% annualized per shadowstats.com (Note 1). Important to Note also are certain other Mortally Negative Consequences of this policy of Excess Money Printing and Credit Provision. Perhaps the most Negative is that Debt Saturation, or more correctly, Debt Hypersaturation which places an Intolerable burden on Economies. It creates Economic Stagnation. So the result is impending Hyperstagflation – Stagnant Economic Growth and Hyperinflation. This is why Deepcaster's High Yield Portfolio is aimed at achieving Returns in excess of Real Inflation (Note 2). The consequence of Economic Stagnation and Inflation for the Markets was accurately expressed recently by Richard Russell. "I'm fairly convinced that this is a legitimate primary bear market. And it will end the way all major bear markets end -- with good stocks being tossed into the market for whatever price they may bring. The good stocks will be sold last, because there will, at least, be a market for them. They will sell below known value. If I had to guess, I'd say the Dow will sell below 10 times earnings, and the dividend yield will be above 6%. "This bear market will be different in at least one respect. Before it's over, all paper or fiat central bank-created 'money' will be suspect." Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters, ww1.dowtheoryletters.com, 6/18/12 And, By the Way, the Fact that Corporate Earnings have been (and probably will continue to be, when the July reports come in) "strong" (albeit not as strong as in earlier quarters) does not serve as a sufficient durable support for the Equities Markets. Net Corporate Assets/and Earnings are Orders of Magnitude Smaller than the Multi-Trillion Dollar Order of Magnitude of Sovereign and other Unpayable Debt. Durable support for the Equities Markets would require lower unemployment levels, inter alia. The fact that the Markets are Trading on Headlines, (for example, recently they have been trading on Expectations of a Euro Decision or non-Decision) demonstrates that Fundamentals are very weak for the Equities Markets in general. Therefore, a 'Golden Nugget' Opportunity is on the short side of Equities if one's timing is right. However, we have Good News for Gold (and Silver) Partisans. After last week's Cartel-facilitated (See Note 3) Massive Gold Price Takedown, the Good News is that Big Buyers flooded back into the Market Monday this week, taking Gold back up some $20 from the $1560s to the $1580s. Subsequent Takedowns wiped out these gains. But such action is Noise. The Essential Golden Nugget Opportunity results from the fact that Gold and Silver have been bouncing back almost immediately after Takedowns! Big Buyers are buying on dips. This was not typically true after Cartel-generated Price Takedowns several years ago. In other words, even though last week's Takedown generated a short-term sell signal, long term, Gold (and Silver) is still very much in a Bull Trend. And Gold's recent Weakness is due in part to a weak Indian Rupee which has recently lost some 30% of its purchasing power vis-à-vis the $US, but this weakness likely will not continue. The Equities Markets Negatives do adversely affect the prospects, short-term, for the Mining shares however, because they tend to follow the broader Equities Markets. Longer term they are Golden too. Distinguishing underlying Golden Nuggets of Accurate Information from Markets Chaos and Noise facilitates obtaining 'Golden Nuggets' of Profit. Best regards, Deepcaster June 28, 2012 Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com) Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported June 14, 2012 1.70% / 9.30% U.S. Unemployment reported June 1, 2012 8.2% / 22.7% U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported June 28, 2012 1.99% / -2.17% U.S. M3 reported June 18, 2012 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.) No Official Report / 2.52% Note 2: There are Magnificent Opportunities in the Ongoing Crises of Debt Saturation, Rising Unemployment, negative Real GDP growth, over 9.0% Real U.S. Inflation (per Shadowstats.com) and prospective Sovereign and other Defaults. One Sector full of Opportunities is the High-Yield Sector. Deepcaster's High yield Portfolio is aimed at generating Total Return (Gain + Yield) well in excess of Real Consumer Price Inflation (9.3% per year in the U.S. per Shadowstats.com). To consider our High-Yield Stocks Portfolio with Recent Yields of 18.5%, 8.6%, 10.6%, 26%, 6.7%, 8%, 10.6%, 14.9%, 10% and 15.6% when added to the portfolio; go to www.deepcaster.com and click on 'High Yield Portfolio'. Deepcaster's High Potential Speculator Portfolio has provided the following profits in recent months: 56% Profit on Premium Gold Miner on June 1, 2012 after just 2 days (i.e., about 10,100% annualized!) 87% Total Return on Agricultural Blue Chip on April 23, 2012 after just 208 days (i.e., about 152% profit annualized on the remaining half of the original position) 57% Profit on Agricultural Blue Chip on February 24, 2012 after just 149 days (i.e., about 140% annualized!) Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster's December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled "Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions - III" and Deepcaster's July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the 'Alerts Cache' and 'Latest Letter' Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster's profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these "Interventionals." Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster's recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. |
| Gold, silver rally as dollar sinks after EU bank plan Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:07 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rallied on Friday, as the U.S. dollar sank against other major currencies after European leaders put forward a plan to stabilize the region's banking sector. Gold for August delivery GCQ2 +3.00% surged $48.40, or 3.1%, to $1,598.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as high as $1,601.30 an ounce, according to FactSet Research, and weekly gains have reached 1.6% so far. Metal futures shot higher, along with other commodities and equities, after euro-zone leaders unveiled a series of measures aimed at bringing stability to the region's financial markets. A marathon meeting concluded with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy outlining a proposal for a single supervisory mechanism for Europe's banking system and a plan to directly recapitalize the region's banks. The greenback fell sharply, spurring buying in dollar-denominated commodities, which dollar weakness makes cheaper for holders of other currencies. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Daily Outlook For Gold And Silver - June 29 Posted: 29 Jun 2012 03:50 AM PDT By Lior Cohen: Gold and silver tumbled down yesterday along with many other commodities rates and the U.S. stock markets. This negative sentiment is likely to shift as the EU summit concluded yesterday with a decision to establish a united supervisory mechanism for the EU banking system. It was also decided that struggling EU banks (including Spanish banks) will be bailed out by the EU rescue fund. The EU leaders also agreed to relinquish the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks provide their governments preferred creditor status. This news is likely to pull back up not only the euro, but also bullion. Yesterday, U.S. jobless claims nearly didn't change; U.S. GDP also remained unchanged for Q1 2012. On today's agenda: euro area monetary development, German retail sales, Italian 10-year bond auction, euro area flash estimate of annual inflation and Canada's GDP by industry. Gold fell on Thursday by 1.77% to $1,550.4 -- Complete Story » |
| Why Is Silver Losing Its Shine? Posted: 29 Jun 2012 03:39 AM PDT By Qineqt: Silver is losing its shine as a safe haven as well as an inflation hedge. Slower global economic activity, and the view that American and European policymakers are not going to take further monetary easing steps, have led to a decline in commodity prices, with silver prices currently dropping to 19-month low levels. Bloomberg reported that 'the silver futures for September delivery dropped 2.6% to $26.291 per ounce on the Comex, after touching $26.105, the lowest level since November 28, 2010". The silver prices have rebounded today. However, even though the market is currently bearish regarding silver and its stocks, we are bullish on this sector because we expect its demand to increase in future, especially in industrial applications, currently accounting for more than 55% of its demand. Its demand is projected to increase significantly due to its technical proficiency limiting the ability to switch to low-cost alternatives.
The considerable Complete Story » |
| Peter Schiff – Europe, Gold & The Health Care Bill Posted: 29 Jun 2012 03:01 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today in his King World News interview, Peter Schiff was discussing Europe, gold, and the health care bill. Schiff, who is CEO of Europacific Capital, said there will be even more problems for Europe if Europe does what George Soros wants them to. But first, here is what Schiff had to say about the situation in Europe: "I doubt there will be any major resolution out of Europe any time soon. Will Germany cave and make the problem worse by bailing everybody out? Do they want short-term pain or long-term gain? Those are the choices." Peter Schiff continues: "I think there are more problems if Europe does what Soros wants. If they want to prevent any short-term problems, they have to do a major bailout. They have to basically put the full faith and credit of the Northern European economies behind the debts of the South. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Hathaway – Confidence Severely Damaged, Chaos to Accelerate Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:57 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Four-decade veteran John Hathaway told King World News, "Let's face it, the euro is a lot bigger deal than Lehman Brothers and the subprime credit mess." The prolific manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund also warned, "Confidence has been severely damaged" and "…investors need to be prepared for the chaos to accelerate." Here is what Hathaway had to say about the ongoing crisis: "To me the big picture hasn't changed. We have ongoing paralysis in Europe. I was there for the past ten days, and most people I spoke with just threw up their hands. I think to expect that there is going to be any resolution of this situation any time soon is a far-fetched dream. I just don't see it happening." John Hathaway continues: "So I think that mess is going to say with us for a very long time. I don't know how it's going to be resolved, but I do think it is very constructive for gold because what you are seeing is the demotion of a reserve currency from a safe status, to something less than that. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Greyerz – Greatest Financial Collapse The World Has Ever Seen Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:47 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: With global stock markets trading in the red, today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that investors are going to witness the greatest financial collapse the world has ever seen. Egon von Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, also said, "…investors are under the illusion that the system will continue, but it won't." Here is what Greyerz had to say about the the financial collapse: "As always, Eric, I'm focusing on the big picture. We are in a crisis, and the outcome is absolutely certain. What is not certain is how we get there. The problem is it's not only one crisis, it's a number of crises. We have the first one which is the sovereign crisis." Egon von Greyerz continues: "Almost every single major country in the world is bankrupt, and no one has the tools or a plan to get these countries out of this crisis. So countries will go bankrupt by default or by printing excessive money. This situation will continue to get worse and ultimately lead to a hyperinflationary depression. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| How much deflation before we get to the hyperinflation of money printing? Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:35 AM PDT
from arabianmoney.net: Look around the world as ArabianMoney always does in the summer because the excessive heat of the Middle East drives us all to seek out cooler climates, and you very quickly realize this year that the main issue is deflation, not inflation. Gas prices are falling with the oil price. Indeed, falling commodity prices are taking the pressure off input prices across the board. Demand destruction The demand destruction of widespread economic contraction is doing the rest. Shop discounts are deeper to sell goods. Hotels are struggling to sell rooms. Upgrades are cheap. Hire car companies can only give away their more expensive models. Pricing muscle is low. Customers who overpaid in advance will not do so again, or certainly not next time. Yet central banks are not unaware of this situation, or in any doubt about how dangerous a deflationary spiral could be to the global economy. Keep on reading @ arabianmoney.net |
| Why Bear Markets Are So Hard to Short Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:32 AM PDT
from rickackerman.com: Recall that a little more than a week ago, in a headline atop one of these commentaries, we invited you to "Join Us as We Short Every Stupid Rally." And why not? Stocks are probably in a bear market now, and making money on the short side should be as easy as stringing beads, right? Well, not exactly. In the several years that have passed since we last experienced a full-blown bear, we'd forgotten how devious he can be. Expecting the worst, we somehow still put out advice to Rick's Picks subscribers Wednesday night that had them looking for a last-gasp rally to get short. We even gave them a go-ahead to get long cautiously, based on a buy signal in the E-Mini S&Ps that had been triggered a day earlier. When stocks opened Thursday morning, however, what we saw instead was a 170-point collapse in the Dow on news that the Supreme Court had upheld Obamacare. The funny thing is, even bears who stuck to their guns could have lost money, since stocks came roaring back in the final hour. Keep on reading @ rickackerman.com |
| Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:28 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: The longest foreplay, well except what they have going on over in Europe these days, is now over: STOCKTON, CALIFORNIA, FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY COURT PROTECTION What next: Stoxit? And what is the Bloomberg text symbol for the Confederate dollar? Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Silver’s split personality feeds steep price drop Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:28 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver's split personality as an industrial and precious metal contributed to a steep drop for the second quarter, as the metal's economic demand prospects and safe-haven appeal duel for investors' attention. "Silver had more froth in the price to work off versus other commodities," after its "'bubble-esk' run up in 2011, where it almost doubled over the course of three months," said Elliott Orsillo, co-founder and portfolio manager at Season Investments LLC. Futures prices for silver SIU2 +4.00% peaked above $48 an ounce in April of last year. It traded above $37 at their peak this year so far. But after the September contract closed Thursday at $26.29, silver's on track for its biggest quarterly loss in almost four years, down 19% quarter to date, according to data from FactSet Research, as of Thursday. That compares with a 7.2% decline in gold futures over the same period. "The slide in silver prices mirrors the stubbornly sluggish global economy, and the strength of the U.S. dollar," said Keith Newcomb, portfolio manager at Full Life Financial LLC. "Both have led investors to be more willing to sell silver than buy it." Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Welcome to the Currency War, Part 2: Massive Euro Devaluation Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:25 AM PDT
from dollarcollapse.com: As everyone knows by now, Greece, Spain and the rest of the PIIGS countries can't fix their economies because they can't devalue. If they were still using their old national fiat currencies, so goes the conventional wisdom, they could just mark them down by 30% and instantly see their exports surge and their deficits shrink. Et voilà, they'd once again be fully-functioning members of the global economy. But the euro is beyond their control, leaving them with only austerity, which in this context is another word for Depression. Hence all the speculation over radical-but-suddenly-conceivable ideas like a Greek or Spanish exit, fiscal integration with Germany in charge, and eurobonds guaranteed by the eurozone as a whole. This is all wasted effort, however, without the final piece of the puzzle: The ECB will have to flood the system with newly-created currency, which is another way of saying that the euro itself will have to be devalued. Acknowledging this inevitability, Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and former chairman of Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, calls explicitly for a euro devaluation in today's Street Journal: Keep on reading @ dollarcollapse.com |
| Daily Pfennig: Eurozone Leaders Surprise The Markets.. Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:20 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: In This Issue… * A Risk On Day! And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts! Eurozone Leaders Surprise The Markets.. Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm dragging the line this morning for sure, so I doubt I'll be my normal self as I write this morning… By missing yesterday, I missed out wishing, what was once my little buddy, Alex, a Happy 17th Birthday! And… a Happy Anniversary to darling daughter Dawn and husband Jerry… Yes, they got married on Alex's birthday… he thought the reception that night was his birthday party! Well… Front and Center this morning, there's been a development in the Eurozone Summit that needs to be addressed… In a move that surprised the markets… The Eurozone leaders agreed to allow the bailout funds to recapitalize banks… This has been a real bottleneck for the Eurozone, and now that it's behind them, they can go about shoring up the troubled banks of Spain and Italy. Hey! Don't look at me that way! No, this isn't what Chuck would do… but, the markets seem to love it as the euro has rallied from 1.2444 yesterday to 1.2580 this morning… Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:20 AM PDT
from tfmetalsreport.com: It's hard to tell just who got squeezed first and the hardest. The equity shorts? The crude shorts? The gold shorts? Nope, those short the Euro are the ones really getting squeezed today. Take a look at this chart of the $/Euro. Yes, that's 2.5 points (2+%) in about 10 hours overnight, while the U.S. slept. And once the ball got rolling, it was only a matter of time until it smashed into everything dollar-priced. As I type, crude is up $4.21 to $81.90. The S&P 500 is up 23 points to 1352. And, of course, our precious precious have jumped higher, as well. And just in time, too! Yesterday in silver was pretty scary. Price hung on the edge of support for most of the day. Had the area between 26 and 26.25 failed to hold, silver would have fallen very quickly. There is still the possibility that a stop-clearing, vomit-inducing drop may materialize if the coming days but it doesn't necessarily have to. Just pay attention and don't panic IF it does. Keep on reading @ tfmetalsreport.com |
| Hey Silver Bugs, “Act Like a Man!” Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:13 AM PDT
from beaconequity.com: Godfather: You can act like a man! So "toughen up" as Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com said to wimpy precious metals investors who were calling him and crying about the precious metals market earlier this year. Act like a man! Need a slap to the face, too?! At the time of the making of the movie, silver had dropped to $1.37 per ounce in November 1971, after falling from a high of $2.57 per ounce in 1968, a drop of nearly 50 percent in more than two years. But by December of 1972, the silver price cracked $2.00 once again, on its way to $50 eight years later in Jan. 1980. Today, after only half the time of the 1968 to 1971 fall in the price of silver, silver bugs are crying like women—like a finocchio (gay). After 13 months, the silver price has dropped from nearly $50 in late April to $26.20. Big deal. That's typical silver market action. Look at the chart, above, and see the 40-times move in the price of silver through the next eight years. The 1968-71 price decline looks tame within the overall picture in the year 1980. Keep on reading @ beaconequity.com |
| Financial markets facing a perfect storm as in 2008? Posted: 29 Jun 2012 02:07 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: The parallel most analysts draw with this summer is the summer of 2008. Nobody then could fully appreciate the carnage to come in financial markets but there were plenty of warning signs. It was trouble in the banking sector that gave us the biggest warning then, namely subprime lending and the first bank run in the UK for more than a century at Northern Rock. JP Morgan This time we have the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, and headlines like JP Morgan's $9 billion loss on its 'London Whale' trading book and a half-billion dollar fine for Barclays Bank over interest rate fixing. The economic backdrop is also equally fragile if not considerably worse because global central banks have orchestrated so much in terms of massively expensive bailouts in the interim. Their efforts are ever bigger and each shot of heroin for the global economy delivers a shorter and shorter period of calm. European summits come and go, promising final solutions that never quite seem to work. Germany will not pay for euro bonds but then this is an unworkable solution and would only rack up more debt. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| THE CRB JUST FORMED A FINAL THREE YEAR CYCLE LOW Posted: 29 Jun 2012 12:56 AM PDT I think it's clear by the action in the dollar index this morning and the response by risk assets in general, that the bottom I have been looking for is here.  Today will be the first day in a commodity rally that should last roughly 2 years topping in mid-to-late 2014 when the dollar puts in its next three year cycle low. The next two or three weeks should produce an exceptionally violent rally from extreme oversold conditions followed by a consolidation period as the dollar bounces weakly out of its intermediate bottom and rolls over quickly signaling that the three year cycle has topped.  The last two three year cycle lows in 2006 and 2009 generated a 20% and 32% rally during the initial move out of the final low.   This is day one of what should be roughly a two year rally into a massive parabolic spike sometime in 2014. Let me reiterate that the initial rally out of one of these major cycle lows is always extremely aggressive. Today you have a chance to get in on the first day of this initial move. Those that wait will end up chasing into overbought conditions very quickly. As is often the case, gold sniffed out this bottom early in May. The rally today confirms that we have a daily cycle bottom in place and a new cycle beginning that should last 15-20 days before the next short-term correction.  Miners confirmed this major bottom with a 24% initial rally on huge volume. This should be a multi-year low that will not be violated until the secular bull comes to an end.  To find out how cycles analysis enabled me to predict this major bottom I have reactivated the one week trial subscription to the premium newsletter.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
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