saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Thursday Options Recap
- Public Pension Funds, IPOs: What Will Facebook Tell Us?
- Beware Of The U.S. Healthcare Bubble
- Dear Warren Buffett - Please Consider A Few Facts About Gold Given The Confusion You Have Created
- How Much Of The European Malaise Is In The Currency Markets?
- Asian Gold: Michael Checkan explains how it works
- Understanding Risk in the 21st Century
- Jump in Gold as France Refutes EU Pact, Portuguese Contingency Rumored, Chinese Demand Overtakes India
- When Will The Flight Out Of Euros Benefit Gold and Silver Prices?
- Aden: Gold Still a Buy Despite Correction
- Gold’s GOR Fest
- Gold finally bounces
- I hope you got a little
- China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says (Update 1)
- GEAB N°65 ist angekommen! Umfassende weltweite Krise / 2. Halbjahr 2012 - Vier Faktoren voller Sprengkraft treffen zusammen : Banken-Börsen-Renten-Schulden
- Gold Higher as France Refutes EU Fiscal Pact
- Recovery Begins When Addiction Ends: An Open Letter to Jamie Dimon
- China, ETFs Dominating Bullion Investment: WGC
- Springheel Jack: Gold and Silver Update
- Manipulated Markets Can’t See the Future
- The Devil's Metal: Finding Opportunity in Silver,
- George Soros Spikes Gold Position
- Another Signpost On The Road To Inflation
- Japanese Pension Fund Buys Gold -- But Only the ETF Kind
- Three King World News Blogs
- Greece on brink of collapse
| Posted: 17 May 2012 06:33 AM PDT By Frederic Ruffy: SentimentThe bearish underlying tone continues Thursday and trading in the options market is brisk heading into-expiration Friday. 4 million calls and 5.3 million puts traded in the first two hours. The projected volume of 9.8 million calls and 12.9 million puts yields a put-to-call ratio of 1.31 and would represent the highest since September 28, 2011. The put-to-call ratio for trading in all products across all exchanges has now exceeded 1.0 for three consecutive trading sessions, which is the first time since Nov 8-10. The S&P sits 7.2 percent from its multi-year closing high of April 2, but the high levels of investor anxiety didn't really resurface until recently and amid a five-day 3.1 percent losing skid seen since last Thursday. The S&P 500 has moved lower in 10 of 13 trading sessions in May and is down 5.9 percent month-to-date. VIX is up .67 to 22.94 today and Complete Story » |
| Public Pension Funds, IPOs: What Will Facebook Tell Us? Posted: 17 May 2012 06:29 AM PDT By Public Fund Point: Public pension funds practically have the largest investment portfolios on an absolute dollar basis when compared to most investors, retail and institutional, and consequently are the largest allocators to domestic equities and other asset classes. Due to limited staff and resources, the majority of public pension funds will likely hire professional (and emerging) investment managers to act as fiduciaries and manage assets per specified mandates and investment guidelines, and on behalf of all participants per a respective plan. With the wave of recent IPOs and the hype towards Facebook (FB) going public, knowing the interest in the following companies from a public pension fund perspective may shed light to potential winners and losers: Angie's List (ANGI); Demand Media (DMD); Groupon (GRPN); HomeAway (AWAY); Jive Software (JIVE); LinkedIn (LNKD); Pandora (P); Yelp (YELP); Zillow (Z); and Zynga (ZNGA). The following pension funds, as of March 31, 2012, had interest in these Complete Story » |
| Beware Of The U.S. Healthcare Bubble Posted: 17 May 2012 06:14 AM PDT By Jesse Colombo: What is larger than the U.K.'s entire economy, soaring in price, obscenely profitable, the leading cause of personal bankruptcy, bankrupting America and a colossal economic bubble that nobody yet knows about? Healthcare in the USA. Though everyone is aware of the perpetually soaring cost of healthcare, virtually nobody has put two and two together and realized that healthcare has become the ultimate bubble that will put the housing bubble to shame. While the healthcare industry hoodwinks us into believing that soaring healthcare costs are our own fault and hospital scrub-wearing mini-Madoffs rake in millions by cheating their patients, a modern-day gold rush is on as young Americans frantically look to healthcare careers as one of their last remaining shots at middle class life. Expect to hear much more about the U.S. healthcare bubble in the future as healthcare Complete Story » |
| Dear Warren Buffett - Please Consider A Few Facts About Gold Given The Confusion You Have Created Posted: 17 May 2012 06:11 AM PDT By Drew Mason: Dear Warren, While your investment record is spectacular, last week Charlie Munger made some inflammatory comments about gold and your recent comments completely misclassified the metal. Your sound bites confuse many investors about what may prove this generation's most critical financial topic as your perspective compares vastly different asset classes through the same lens. Your words and Charlie's words left thousands of your followers believing gold is a poor use of capital. Investors believe you endorse the most widely held asset in America, dollar cash, and they hear you denounce its antidote, gold. You do this despite your own admission that dollar cash has been a disaster. If you are wrong on this singular point, as history suggests you will be, your spectacular investment legacy will be tarnished as millions of affluent investors holding concentrated positions in "safe" dollars could be pushed towards poverty. In a recent letter you appropriately Complete Story » |
| How Much Of The European Malaise Is In The Currency Markets? Posted: 17 May 2012 05:31 AM PDT By Ralph Shell: Is there anyone who does not know the Europeans have a severe debt crises, which has the potential to engulf the world in one more financial meltdown? The weeks fly by, but the news and the fears of a Greek exodus from the euro, and the risk of contagion spreading to other counties, remains the central theme of financial markets. Free markets, supposedly efficient, are expected to discount the future. By now you would think even the financial back waters would be aware of the plight. The question arises then, how much of the European mess has been anticipated by the market? Usually markets discount future development but once. Are there still potential revelations that will surprise the markets? The euro has been at the epicenter of the potential crises. Anticipated is a default by Greece and a messy exit from the euro, leaving behind billions of bank debt, and Complete Story » |
| Asian Gold: Michael Checkan explains how it works Posted: 17 May 2012 04:30 AM PDT In this podcast Asset Strategies International's Michael Checkan, and the GoldMoney Foundation's Alasdair Macleod, discuss the role of gold in Asian countries such as Vietnam, China, India ... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Understanding Risk in the 21st Century Posted: 17 May 2012 03:33 AM PDT The mainstream (corporate) media is nothing less than the unofficial accomplice of the banking crime syndicate which is running/ruining our markets and economies. Nowhere is this despicable relationship more apparent than in its deliberate efforts to grossly misinform investors on the critical subject of risk. I partially dealt with this issue in a previous commentary titled "Volatility Does Not Equal Risk". In that article I did something which you will never, ever see the mainstream do: I provided an explicit and detailed definition of the term "risk". I would encourage even those readers who read the original piece to re-read it, as I simply don't have the space to repeat that multi-paragraph definition here, and (as I always stress) definition of terms is a crucial prerequisite to understanding any concept. Equally important, that previous piece clearly distinguishes the entirely distinct concepts of "volatility" versus "risk". In contrast, one of the principle propaganda assignments given to the mainstream media has been to entirely blur the distinction between volatility and risk. In its simplest form, "risk" (in the realm of investing) refers to two interrelated probabilities: the probability of suffering a loss on the investment, and the potential magnitude of such a loss. Conversely, "volatility" (i.e. what an investment does in between the day one buys and the day one sells it) is totally irrelevant. A simple example will illustrate this principle. A hypothetical investment which moved straight to zero in a perfectly smooth, linear progression has (literally) zero volatility, while (by definition) represents maximum risk: a 100% loss. As we see, there is no rational connection or logical relationship between volatility and risk – they are entirely independent concepts. For convenience (and future use), let's label this hypothetical investment "bonds". Critics will argue that I'm being unfair and discriminatory in singling out the bond market with such a label. However, as readers will see shortly, choosing to be a 21st century bond-holder is nothing less than one of the most foolish bets in the history of markets. To illustrate this obvious point it is necessary to provide some historical context. Again, this is something in which the mainstream media never, ever engages. One hundred years ago (roughly at the time the Federal Reserve was created) Western economies were strong and healthy, and their sovereign governments were all totally solvent. Thus when those governments borrowed money (i.e. "issued bonds"), being a holder of that debt was a very safe investment. In addition, the "inflation rate" (i.e. the speed with which our currency is being destroyed by money-printing) was very low at that time, meaning that bond-holders were able to make a real profit on the interest being paid on their bonds. It was a smart time to be a lender. Flash ahead 100 years. Today Western governments are totally insolvent. Their economies are totally crippled (from spending too much on interest payments on debt), and are thus generating woefully insufficient revenues. If Western governments were corporations, nearly every one of them would have already been forced into bankruptcy proceedings, as their soaring debt-levels and collapsing revenues mean that as a simple matter of arithmetic virtually all of these governments are already past the point of no return. Deluded readers and media "experts" will argue that I'm being overly alarmist in my conclusions. Again some historical context is in order: an example I've already used in past commentaries. In the 1980's, as Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio was surging toward 70%, it's Conservative government was seen as a poster-child of fiscal irresponsibility; and Canada was seen to be in an official "debt crisis. Today (with another Conservative government at the helm), as Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio soared above 80%, the same (corporate) media has labeled Canada a model of fiscal prudence and financial stability. How can the same talking-heads talking about the same country refer to a debt-to-GDP ratio below 70% as a "debt crisis", while a quarter century later they refer to a debt-to-GDP ratio above 80% as representing admirable fiscal management? Simple. A quarter century later, all of the other Deadbeat Debtors are now in significantly worse shape than Canada (such as the U.S., with its own debt-to-GDP ratio above 100%) – and the dishonest media is trying to hide that fact. Short of a total restructuring, it is not even theoretically possible for any of these economies to return to solvency – given their rising debt-levels (and debt payments) and declining revenue profiles. Debt-default (i.e. bonds going to zero) has now gone from a question of "if" to the much simpler question of "when". |
| Posted: 17 May 2012 03:05 AM PDT
Jump in Gold as France Refutes EU Pact, Portuguese Contingency Rumored, Chinese Demand Overtakes India THE WHOLESALE MARKET gold price jumped at the start of New York trade on Thursday, cutting the week's previous 3.3% dive to 5-month lows in half as the Euro fell and Eurozone stock markets slumped once again. The gold price touched $1558 per ounce before easing $3 lower. Silver did not follow, failing to break this morning's earlier Dollar high at $27.86 per ounce. German Bund yields fell to fresh record lows, but Spain had to offer investors in new 3-year debt an annual yield of 4.37%, up from the 2.89% charged at the last comparable sale in April. The European Central Bank confirmed it has ceased working with some Greek banks because it believes them to be insolvent, while Portugal's Diario Economico newspaper claimed a joint visit by the ECB, IMF and European Union to assess Lisbon's €78 billion bail-out will also discuss contigency plans should Greece quit the single currency. Greece's interim cabinet of academics, lawyers and diplomats was today sworn in, pending fresh elections in four weeks' time. The gold price in Euros jumped 1.9% from Wednesday's low, trading above last week's closing level. France's new finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, today said the socialist government of Françoise Hollande will not ratify the European Union's fiscal pact agreed by 25 out of 27 member states last December. Gold's Relative Strength Index – a technical measure of the speed and size of price change – "is approaching extreme oversold territory," says the latest technical note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, "but there are no warning signs yet of a change in trend." "Gold is definitely in oversold territory, and there should be some good buying interest around the low in December," Bloomberg quotes Dong Zhuying at Haitong Futures Co. "Paring its losses near key support at $1525," says Ed Meir at Intl FC Stone, the gold price likely saw "a decent amount of short-covering" by bearish traders on Wednesday, if not "fresh buying" after it held that level. European stock markets fell again Thursday, losing value for the 8th session out of 11 in May so far and taking Madrid's Ibex 35 index down to a fresh 9-year low, some 3.4% down on the day. Crude oil slipped to new 6-month lows after data on Wednesday showed US energy stockpiles more glutted than any time since 1990. Commeting on gold's 20% drop from last summr's all-time highs, "I believe gold will become a haven again, especially if you see fragmentation in the Eurozone," said the World Gold Council's Marcus Grubb to Bloomberg TV this morning, launching market-development group's latest Gold Demand Trends report. "Because then you're going to get currency depreciation, you may get inflation in some countries, deflation in others…and you'll see gold's attributes as a hedge come to the fore." In the first quarter of 2012, global gold investment demand rose 13% by weight and 38% by Dollar value from the Jan-March period last year, says the report. In the jewelry sector, "Gold is underpined now by two large markets and China is playing catch up to India," says Grubb, also speaking to Reuters this morning. "Per capita gramme consumption rates are rising in China." Acknowledged as the leading authority on global demand and supply analysis, the World Gold Council says that China's gold demand again beat India in the first quarter of 2012. "You're going to see China become the largest gold market overall by the end of this year for the first time," Grubb believes. "It's worth remembering that growth rates are still in the 7-8% range. So people are getting wealthier, and they will continue to buy gold strongly we believe." Beijing last month halved the rate of import rates on gold jewelry. So far in 2012, India has quadrupled its gold bullion import tax. After last weekend's cut by China's central bank to the reserve ratio requirement – easing credit by enabling commercial banks to lend out more of the cash deposits they take – the State Council of China said Wednesday it will spend CNY36.3 billion ($5.7bn) over the next 12 months subsidizing household purchases of large electrical items, fuel-efficient cars and energy-saving lightbulbs. Despite the cut in the reserve ratio requirement, however, lending by China's four largest banks has "been flat so far this month" says the Shanghai Securities Journal. Both the central and commercial banks were net sellers of foreign currency in April, the People's Bank of China said this week, indicating an outflow of capital. China's 12-month trade surplus has halved from its peak above $300 billion of early 2009, according to data cited by the Financial Times. Adrian Ash Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| When Will The Flight Out Of Euros Benefit Gold and Silver Prices? Posted: 17 May 2012 02:57 AM PDT
WIth the market covered with crimson yesterday it might appear that our natural resource selections in gold, silver (SIL) rare earths (REMX) and uranium (URA) miners are a thin blanket for a cold night. Since when has wealth in the earth not experienced breathtaking corrections as they continue in their upward trajectories? Remember there may have been selling to satisfy a deluge of margin calls.
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| Aden: Gold Still a Buy Despite Correction Posted: 17 May 2012 02:55 AM PDT Gold remains a premiere investment and will end the year above $1,600 per ounce to mark the 12th consecutive year of increases for the metal, gold expert Pamela Aden of Aden Forecast said in a presentation at this week's Hard Assets Conference in New York. |
| Posted: 17 May 2012 02:50 AM PDT Even after the blow off in silver and gold's euro hysteria-induced blow off I did not expect a repeat of the 2008 crash in the HUI Gold Bugs index to happen given the state of the real price of gold (RPG) today as compared to the run up to 2008. Wrong sir, the black boxes are apparently in control; or are they? Maybe someone is controlling the black boxes. Ben Bernanke has stated that he would control Treasury yield curves. This is not tin foil hat analysis seeking to rationalize, it is merely stating what the world's most powerful monetary policy maker said he would do.  He said he would buy long-term Treasury bonds and sell short-term bonds. You want to manipulate gold? It is simple for an academic scholar with a big brain. Gold reliably follows the 30 year / 2 year yield spread. Right now it is painted to give the impression that 30 year yields are naturally declining vs. short term yields, which in turn tells a story of easy money (on the long end) and fiscal prudence (on the short end) all at once. What a nice little painting. Gold does not like 'nice' and gold does not like Goldilocks. Here is the humorous graph once again from the St. Louis Fed that shows the smooth horizontal line from 2009/2010 (the Fed stopped monetizing debt) and the jagged one of today as the Fed apparently frantically day trades Treasury bonds of various maturities to paint the desired picture.  Gold originally got harpooned by its own greed/fear inspired momentum blowout in the euro crisis last summer, but is now being manipulated by this measure and I suppose it comes down to whether you want to submit to Dear (monetary) Leader and his ability to control the picture indefinitely (or at least through the election?).  "There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to — The Outer Limits." I could not resist pulling that one out again. Who says financial analysis cannot be fun? The situation in gold is that technically, it should not make a lower low to the December low without incurring further technical damage, bringing 1400 into the picture as the next support. Further, it is probably not going to do much of anything bullish until people stop believing (or wanting to believe) that the Treasury yield curve above is a picture of anything real. Gold is very over sold and the sentiment backdrop is extremely (contrarian) bullish. I noted on the blog yesterday that I sat and talked with a local bullion dealer who informed me that people (the public) are absolutely puking gold up whereas last summer the situation was the opposite. Further, he told me that he has never seen anything like last spring when people were falling all over themselves to buy silver on the way up to 50 bucks (he is too young to remember the Hunt Brothers). Dear readers, contrarian sentiment analysis should eventually pay off because The Outer Limits was just a TV show and the current Fed operation is just a magic show. That is the situation in gold. Like it or leave it, but it is what it is. A warning was given here, although as stated, I did not then perceive the scope of the oncoming damage in the gold stock sector. So on that note let's move on to the gold stocks, with a focus on the gold-oil ratio (GOR).  The GOR is one of the most important sub-components of gold's 'real' price (RPG). In NFTRH we noted in Q4 of 2011 that there could be cost pressure coming to gold miner bottom lines due to the state of the GOR, which had been in correction mode for several weeks. Given that it (and gold's ratio to other commodities and markets) appeared then (and still does today) to be in a bullish consolidation rather than the multi year 'sideways to down' trend it had been in during the run up to 2008′s impulsive upside, I expected only 'pressure' on the miners, not Armageddon 2012. We adjusted after HUI lost the neckline at 475 and a target range by cold, uncaring technical analysis was measured down to 315. This was the measurement of the top of the pattern to major support, which doubled as a neckline. 315 is not a prediction. It is a measurement and I respect it. So where are we now? We are in the midst of agony is where we are. Sentiment? It is contrarian mega bullish. Fundamentals? Well, are the GOR above, the Au-CCI and Au-CRB ratios, Au-Cu going to break down or are they going to finish their consolidation and rise again? That is a critical question with regard to gold miners. Are we on a counter cycle or is the smart man at the Federal Reserve really able to manage the financial markets at will? The GOR weekly chart above has just crossed to MACD up trigger for the first time since it began consolidating out of the euro crisis. The ADX line is totally washed of momentum and is at least supportive of a new trend. We will know soon, but my impression remains that this chart, and gold miner macro fundamentals, remain in bullish consolidation. Therefore, the savaging of the black boxes in the gold mining sector remains viewed as an opportunity; one which I worked very hard to have myself and my newsletter prepared for. Could I be wrong? Hey, I just interpret the markets; unlike Dear (monetary) Leader, I do not control them. He apparently wants this picture to break down in Charlie Munger's favor.  It is an intimidating thought to know that the forces of Bernanke and Munger are arrayed against the view of little old me. But that is why we do this my friends. No one said it would be easy and you have got to know what you believe, manage risk ALWAYS, and be prepared to be brave in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. If the picture above breaks down, along with various measures of the RPG, then America truly may feel like a scary place to me as the likely interpretation would be that the financial markets have been completely merged with the Federal Reserve, because I do not see any real fundamental policy change in effect or on the horizon. What I see is a man with a really big brain buying and selling Treasury bonds; i.e. buying and selling the massive debt load of the United States in favor of desired outcomes. We are in Wonderland, but that story – after which my newsletter is named – had a happy ending in spite of some really weird goings on in the meantime. We had a normal correction in precious metals out of the over hyped euro hysterics of last summer. Now it is just plain weird. 'Curiouser and curiouser' you might say. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
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| Posted: 17 May 2012 01:53 AM PDT It's about friggin' time. Up 35 US tamales.1,572. Maybe those Greeks are buying some metal with all the Euros they're pulling out of the banks.  |
| Posted: 17 May 2012 01:36 AM PDT At the bottom! :banana: :23_28_100s: :grin10: I managed to snag a 1/2 sovereign yesterday from my LCS. |
| China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says (Update 1) Posted: 17 May 2012 01:24 AM PDT Gold demand in China may surge as much as 30 percent this year as rising incomes boost consumption, helping the country topple India as the world's largest bullion market on an annual basis, according to the World Gold Council. Demand, which rose to a record in the first quarter, may gain to between 900 metric tons and 1,000 tons this year, from 769.8 tons in 2011, Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the producer-funded group, said in an interview. Indian usage may drop to 800 tons to 900 tons, from 933.4 tons, he said. Higher demand in the world's largest gold producer may help arrest a slump in prices, which have plunged from last year's record as investors favored the dollar amid concern Greece may quit the euro. Global gold demand fell 4.6 percent to 1,097.6 tons in the first quarter, the council said in a report today. "We are confident China will become the largest source of demand for gold this year," Cheng said in Singapore, restating a council forecast made earlier in 2012. "Over the next two to five years, China and India will go neck to neck and may account for more than 50 percent of world demand." Immediate-delivery gold traded at $1,548.19 an ounce at 4:03 p.m. in Singapore. That's down 1.2 percent this year, and 18.5 percent from the record close on Sept. 5. The price touched $1,526.97 yesterday, the lowest level since December as the Greek debt crisis sent the euro to a four-month low. 'Seek Cash' "Investors are selling gold now to seek cash and rebalance their investment portfolio because of concerns about the euro- zone sovereign-debt crisis," said Cheng, who's been in the gold industry since 1985. "The fundamental reasons for investing in gold remain very strong, so these investors will return." Bullion has rallied for 11 years, gaining through the financial crisis that started in 2008, as investors bought the metal to protect their wealth from currency debasement and inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said in a May 9 report the precious metal remains the so-called currency of last resort. Demand in China totaled 255.2 tons in the three months to March 31 from 232.5 tons a year earlier, the council said in the report. Investment demand gained 13 percent, while jewelry demand increased 7.9 percent to 156.6 tons, making China the world's largest jewelry market for a third quarter. The council's outlook for increased consumption in China this year contrasts with the view from Lao Feng Xiang Co. (900905), the mainland's biggest gold-jewelry maker, which said this month the country's demand growth may stagnate in 2012. 'Increasing Wealth' "The increasing wealth of the middle class is very important in China," Cheng said. "In the past 10 to 15 years, it had reached first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. We expect such wealth to reach 600 million people in third-tier cities such as Dongguan, Zhuhai, Mianyang and Tangshan." In India, demand fell to 207.6 tons in the first quarter, from 290.6 tons a year ago, after the government hiked taxes and import duties, the council said. Investment demand dropped 46 percent and jewelry demand fell 19 percent, it said. A drop in annual demand this year would be the second straight fall. "Consumers will adjust to the changes over time," Cheng said, adding that purchases in India are improving this month. "In India, people buy gold for cultural and religious reasons - - that won't change." To contact the reporters on this story: Madelene Pearson in Mumbai at mpearson1@bloomberg.net; Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-wgc-says.html |
| Posted: 17 May 2012 12:49 AM PDT - Pressemitteilung des GEAB vom 17. Mai 2012 (GEAB N°65) -  Euroland macht sich, insbesondere dank der Wahl des neuen Präsidenten Frankreichs Francois Hollande, die LEAP/E2020 schon seit vielen Monaten vorhersagte, daran, sich bis Ende 2012 ein mittel - und langfristiges politisches, wirtschaftliches und soziales Gemeinschaftsprojekt zu geben. Währenddessen bleiben die Operateure an den internationalen Finanzmärkten Gefangene ihrer Reflexe, mit denen sie nur auf die kurzfristigen Aspekte wie die Kapriolen der griechischen Politik, die Zweifel am Entstehen einer Eurolandgovernance und auf die Staatsschuldenrisiken reagieren. Zur selben Zeit verflüchtigt sich in den USA die Illusion vom Aufschwung (1), verstärken sich erneut die Sorgen über die Solidität des amerikanischen Finanzsektors (die Verluste von JPMorgan haben dies eindrücklich vor Augen geführt) und den Grad der öffentlichen Verschuldung. Angesichts dieser Problemanhäufung fürchten immer mehr Banker und Unternehmer, dass dem Land äußerst schwere Zeiten bevorstehen (2). In Großbritannien sieht es nicht besser aus: Das Land steckt wieder in einer Rezession, die Eindämmung der öffentlichen Defizite ist gescheitert und die Menschen beginnen, gegen die Sparpolitik aufzubegehren - obwohl ihnen das Schlimmste erst noch bevorsteht (3). In Japan geht angesichts einer stagnierenden Wirtschaft und nachlassender Exporten vor dem Hintergrund der weltweiten Rezession (4) wieder das Gespenst einer Überschuldung des Landes um. Angesichts dieser allgemeinen Lage geht LEAP/E2020 davon aus, dass im 2. Halbjahr 2012 mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit vier Faktoren zusammentreffen, die für die Volkswirtschaften der westlichen Staaten viel Sprengkraft enthalten: Banken, Börsen, Renten und Schulden. Für Banker, Investoren, Spekulanten, Unternehmer und Politiker wie auch für die große Masse der Menschen bringt dies bedeutende Risiken für ihre Finanzen wie auch ihre Fähigkeit, für zukünftige Herausforderungen gewappnet zu bleiben, mit sich. In dieser 65. Ausgabe des GEAB stellen wir unsere Antizipationen zu diesen vier Faktoren voller Sprengkraft für das 2. Halbjahr 2012 vor; auch bringen wir Ratschläge, wie ihre negativen Folgen minimiert werden können. Weiterhin präsentieren wir unsere neue Antizipation zu den Folgen der umfassenden weltweiten Krise auf die internationale und europäische Sprachenlandschaft bis 2030, um somit Eltern und Kindern wie auch Bildungseinrichtungen zu ermöglichen, schon heute bei der Fremdsprachenwahl die richtige Entscheidung zu treffen. In dieser Pressemitteilung der 65. Ausgabe des GEAB stellen wir Ihnen unsere Analyse des Faktors "öffentliche und private Verschuldung vor".  Schulden: Staatsverschuldung, die aus dem Ruder läuft, und private Schulden, die Existenzen zerstören - die Menschen könnten in ihrem Zorn den Gläubigern ihre ganz eigene Rechnung aufmachen Wir haben es schon seit 2008 angekündigt und seitdem mehrfach wiederholt: Zu Beginn der Krise wies das globale Finanzsystem Scheinwerte in Höhe von 30.000 Milliarden USD auf. Davon verbleiben aktuell ungefähr noch 15.000 Milliarden, die sich weitgehend bis Ende 2012 verflüchtigt haben werden. Das Gute daran ist, dass ab diesem Zeitpunkt der Wiederaufbau eines Finanzsystems auf gesunden Grundlagen möglich sein wird. Das Schlechte daran ist, dass das Weltfinanzsystem durch diese schwierige Phase in den nächsten Quartalen erst noch durch muss. Das heißt natürlich, wie wir schon in vorhergehenden Ausgaben des GEAB schrieben, dass 10% bis 20% der Banken in den westlichen Staaten in Konkurs gehen werden oder von den Staaten auf Kosten des Steuerzahlers gerettet werden müssen. Und diesmal, anders als 2008/2009, werden die Aktionäre die ersten Opfer dieser Entwicklung sein, auch in den USA und unabhängig davon, wie lange sie schon in Banken investiert hatten (5). Lediglich Aktionäre, die über großen geopolitischen Einfluss verfügen, also Staatsfonds, befreundete Staaten usw., werden in den Vorzug einer Besserbehandlung kommen. Die Privathaushalte hingegen werden weitgehend und insbesondere in den USA und Großbritannien mit ihren Schulden und der durch Zinsanstieg verursachten Zahlungsunfähigkeit allein gelassen werden. Die westlichen Staaten, im Zangengriff von Sparpolitik und Rezession, verfügen nicht mehr über ausreichende Mittel, um die Mittelklasse zu unterstützen, solange die Wirtschaft nicht wieder auf Wachstumskurs ist. Und das wird leider bis Ende 2012 sicherlich nicht der Fall sein. Übrigens kann man gegenwärtig beobachten, wie in den USA sich die Frage der Studentenkredite allmählich zu einer Zweitauflage des Subprimeskandals auswächst (6): Anstieg der Zinsen wegen des Auslaufens der staatlichen Förderung und politische Lähmung in Washington vor dem Hintergrund der Bemühungen um die Begrenzung des Bundesdefizits sind dabei, Millionen junger Amerikaner und Eltern in eine Katastrophe zu stürzen. In Europa hat Großbritannien bereits beschlossen, seiner Mittelklasse in ihrer Rekordverschuldung nicht beizustehen. Als Ergebnis davon werden viele Mitglieder der Mittelklasse in die Unterschicht abstürzen. In den nächsten Monaten werden in Großbritannien wieder brutale Konflikte zwischen dieser britischen Mittelklasse und den Regierenden, die fast ohne Ausnahme der Oberschicht angehören, ausbrechen. Auf dem europäischen Kontinent haben die Menschen mittels Wahlen, in denen sie Regierungen, die als einzigen Ausweg aus der Krise der Staatsverschuldung auf eine rigide Sparpolitik gesetzt haben, mit Abwahl abgestraft haben, den Eliten, die seit 20 Jahren allein die Interessen der Reichen und Gläubiger vertreten, den demokratischen Fehdehandschuh hingeworfen. Die Wahl des neuen französischen Präsidenten Hollande verkörpert einen Versuch, einen Weg zwischen Sparpolitik und keynesiansischer Konjunkturförderung zu finden; denn beide Wege sind entweder gescheitert oder politisch oder haushälterisch nicht durchsetzbar. Und dieser Versuch wird Erfolge zeitigen, denn er ist der einzige, der nunmehr noch politisch und haushälterisch machbar ist (7), wenn auch nicht vor Ende 2012 (8). Bis dahin werden politische Achterbahnfahrten wie in Griechenland und komplexe Verhandlungen innerhalb Eurolands die Tagesordnungen bestimmen, wodurch die Gläubiger und ihre kollektive Institutionalisierung, die man "die Märkte" nennt, immer nervöser werden (9). Deren Nervosität wird noch verstärkt werden vom Wissen der Märkte um die imminente Konkursgefahr der großen Banken der Wall Street und City, wenn Zahlungen der Schuldner, private oder öffentliche, ausfallen sollten. Forderungen an Private oder Staaten sind gewissermaßen die letzten Bilanzpositionen der Banken und Finanzinstitute, mit denen sie noch hoffen können, Einkünfte zu generieren.  Ab dem Sommer 2012 wird das Thema der ausufernden Verschuldung der USA, verbunden mit den automatischen Haushaltskürzungen als Folge der gescheiterten Einigung des Kongresses über Maßnahmen zu Schuldenreduzierung ein wahres "Taxmageddon" (10) in den USA auslösen. Es wird zu einer Neuauflage der Wechselbeziehung "Zünder zu Bombe", also europäischer Schulden zu amerikanischen Schulden kommen, die bereits 2011 für recht viel Aufregung gesorgt hatte, doch die Version 2012 wird deutlich brutaler sein. Denn zwar sind die Sorgen über einen Zusammenbruch des Euros und einer Auflösung von Euroland weitgehend zerstreut (11), bald werden jedoch die Märkte von einer für sie viel größeren Gefahr in Panik versetzt werden, nämlich die massive und brutale Monetisierung der US- Schulden (12). Wenn es soweit sein wird, werden die USA sich einem Zustand der vollkommenen politischen Lähmung befinden angesichts eines zersplitterten Kongresses (13), in dem sowohl bei den Republikanern (Tea Party) wie auch den Demokraten (Occupy) radikale Fraktionen entstanden sein werden (14). --------- Notes: (1) Dabei ist die Hoffnung auf Aufschwung so illusorisch, dass sogar die Subprime- Kredite wieder in Mode kamen. Und sogar der Milchpreis, immer ein verlässliches Indiz für eine wirtschaftliche Abschwächung, deutet auf eine Rezession hin. Quellen : CNBC, 26/04/2012 ; New York Times, 10/04/2012 (2) Wir möchten hierzu in Erinnerung rufen, dass inzwischen die US- Regierung und die Fed 2,5$ Schulden machen müssen, um Wachstum in Höhe von einem Dollar zu generieren. Das ist das Problem aller Volkswirtschaften, deren Verschuldung ausgeartet ist. Das ist eines dieser "Details", das überzeugte Keynesianer gerne ausblenden, wie z.B. Krugman, wenn sie überall mit ihrer Einschätzung hausieren gehen, dass Sparpolitik des Teufels sei. Jeder vom gesunden Menschenverstand getragene Lösungsversuch, der sich also nicht nur auf volkswirtschaftlichen Theorien stützt, sondern auch die Wirklichkeit berücksichtigt, erfordert ein Gleichgewicht zwischen Schuldenreduzierung und Wachstumsimpulsen. Dies ist im Übrigen die Richtung, die Euroland mit Beginn diesen Sommers einschlagen wird. Die USA hingegen weigern sich zur Kenntnis zu nehmen, dass sie nicht weiterhin so vollkommen entfesselt auf Pump leben können. (3) Quelle : WallStreetJournal, 13/05/2012 (4) Quellen : TimesofIndia, 11/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 06/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 28/03/2012 ; Washington Post, 11/05/2012 ; USAToday, 13/04/2012 ; CNBC, 06/04/2012 (5) Quelle : MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 (6) Quelle : CERF, 21/04/2012 (7) In der 62. Ausgabe des GEAB vom Februar 2012 haben wir ausführlich unsere Vorhersagen zur Entwicklung Eurolands in den Jahren 2012 bis 2016 vorgestellt. Die gegenwärtigen Ereignisse bestätigen unsere Analysen (wenn sie eine "live"- Präsentation der Perspektiven für Euroland und Europa sehen wollen, können sie sich den Vortrag von Franck Biancheri (auf Englisch) anhören, den er am 2. Mai vor 1000 Delegierten des größten europäischen Studentenverbands AEGEE- EUROPE gehalten hat). Bis zum Sommer 2012, nach den Parlamentswahlen in Frankreich im Juni 2012, werden sich die sechs Länder Frankreich, Deutschland, Italien, Niederland, Belgien und Spanien auf einen Mittelweg zwischen Sparpolitik und Wachstumsförderung einigen, der zur Richtschnur der Politik in Euroland+ (Euroland plus die weiteren EU- Staaten, die sich am ESM beteiligen) werden wird. (8) Auch in Deutschland mehren sich die Stimmen, die ein besseres Gleichgewicht zwischen Wachstum und Sparpolitik forden, denn die sozialen Kosten des deutschen Wirtschaftserfolgs spürt ein wachsender Anteil der Bevölkerung immer härter. Quelle : Spiegel, 04/05/2012 (9) Zum Beispiel hat der norwegische Staatsfonds beschlossen, seine Staatsanleihen der finanziell angeschlagenen Euroländer abzustoßen. Dennoch erinnert LEAP/E2020 daran, dass kein Anlass zu Sorgen um den Euro besteht, dass vielmehr und ganz im Gegenteil bis Ende 2012 vom Dollar die Baisse beschleunigt werden wird. Quellen : LeFigaro, 05/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 09/05/2012 (10) Wortschöpfung aus den Worten "Tax" und "Armageddon (Weltuntergang)". Es steht für das Steuerchaos, das Ende 2012 herrschen wird, wenn die massiven Haushaltskürzungen umgesetzt werden müssen. Seit nunmehr einem Jahren hat die Wirtschafts- und Finanzpresse in den USA wie auch weltweit dieses Riesenproblem mit Nichtbefassung gestraft. Wenn es zwangsläufig wieder auftauchen wird, wird es noch schwieriger zu meistern sein. (11) Wie wir schon im Januar 2012 schrieben, ist dies einer der großen Unterschiede zwischen der gegenwärtigen Griechenlandkrise und der anti- Eurokrise von 2010/2011. Wenn auch theoretisch ein Ausscheiden Griechenlands aus dem Euro möglich ist, ohne dass dies eine Auflösung des Euros mit sich brächte, so ist er in der Praxis schlichtweg unmöglich. Das ist übrigens eines der Probleme, vor dem die griechischen Politiker stehen. Wir unterstreichen diesen Punkt, um daran zu erinnern, dass die Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, die in einer Welt der Theorie ohne Bezug zur Realität leben, sich in dieser Frage über Monate kontinuierlich geirrt haben. Die Weissager des Eurountergangs von Krugman zu Roubini haben insoweit genau so viel Glaubwürdigkeit wie die römischen Seher, die die Zukunft aus den Eingeweiden der Tiere lasen. Aber um zu Griechenland zurückzukommen: LEAP/E2020 geht davon aus, dass solange die Verantwortlichen der beiden großen Regierungsparteien (PASOK und ND den Generationen angehören, die das Land in diese historische Krise geführt haben, ist ein politischer Ausweg aus der Krise nicht möglich, da die Menschen den Politikern kein Vertrauen entgegen bringen werden. Es ist daher die Aufgabe der anderen Regierungen Eurolands, insbesondere von Merkel über die EVP und Hollande über die SPE, auf ihre jeweiligen Schwesterparteien Druck auszuüben, damit bis zum September 2012 und den nächsten Wahlen die gesamte Führungsmannschaft beider Parteien ausgewechselt und durch neue Führungspersönlichkeiten, die höchstens 45 Jahre alt sein dürfen, ersetzt wird. Der gegenwärtige Erfolg der radikallinken Partei Syrisa erklärt sich genauso mit ihrem Programm wie mit dem Alter ihres Vorsitzenden (38). Etwas vergleichbares wurde doch schon gemacht, um Silvio Berlusconi dazu zu bringen, endlich seine Macht abzugeben, bevor sie ihm genommen wurde. Die Möglichkeit besteht also. In Griechenland geht es darum, dass die Griechen Vertrauen in ihre neuen Politiker, ob von rechts oder von links, fassen. Um zu erklären, warum wir davon ausgehen, dass ein Ausscheiden Griechenlands in der Praxis unmöglich ist, möchten wir nur ein Beispiel anführen, das unseres Erachtens ausreichend sein sollte: Wenn Sie Grieche wären, und man würde Ihnen vorschlagen, Ihre Euros gegen neue Drachmen einzutauschen, was würden Sie machen? Mehr ist dazu eigentlich nicht zu sagen. (12) Sogar der ehemalige US- Finanzminister Robert Rubin warnt inzwischen vor dieser schon kurzfristig großen Gefahr. Quelle: Reuters, 10/05/2012 (13) Unabhängig davon, ob Barack Obama oder Mitt Romney die Wahl gewonnen haben werden. (14) vgl. 60. Ausgabe des GEAB |
| Gold Higher as France Refutes EU Fiscal Pact Posted: 17 May 2012 12:09 AM PDT The wholesale market gold price jumped at the start of New York trade on Thursday, cutting the week's previous 3.3% dive to 5-month lows in half as the euro fell and euro zone stock markets slumped once again. |
| Recovery Begins When Addiction Ends: An Open Letter to Jamie Dimon Posted: 17 May 2012 12:00 AM PDT By the Alternative Banking Working Group of Occupy Wall Street Dear Jamie Dimon: We, the Alternative Banking Working Group of Occupy Wall Street, are staging an intervention on your behalf. Unlike many in the financial industry and press, we will not be deceived by attempts at misdirection and we are not intimidated by complexity. Your days of gambling with taxpayers' money and pressuring the regulators to let business go on as usual are over. It's not good for you, it's not good for us, and it's not good for our country. It's been a good ride, and we've been impressed with how long you have managed to keep it up. The incredible complexity of the financial system helped, of course, just as it helped obscure countless other crimes and frauds. It's truly a work of art how you and your enablers have created a system that nobody fully understands. It's the perfect cover for your continuing addiction to risk, power, and money, and it keeps everyone confused just long enough, well past any statute of limitation for criminal prosecution. Now your addiction is out of control. Rather than quitting while you and JPMorgan Chase were ahead (if you ever were), you've been driven to inhale every last dollar, no matter the risks involved for you and for all of us. What has really worked for you personally, and has allowed you to remain credible for so long, is your intense denial as to the underlying question of what year it is. You seem to live in a time warp where it is still 2004, the housing market is booming, along with the associated securities market, and you and your friends are printing money with no downside in sight. But it turns out that '04 model was a bit of a lemon — or, to borrow your words, "poorly conceived, poorly vetted, and poorly executed." Here is some sobering news: You are, in fact, living in 2012, leading an enormous, too-big-to-fail bank, which is being continuously bailed out by the Fed's unlimited loans at 0% interest, on the taxpayers' dime. In a reasonable world, under these conditions, JPMorgan Chase would be a utility bank focused on the public good, and you would be merely its custodian. You would not be incentivized to take crazy risks to chase yield. Your job would be incredibly boring and your bank only very mildly profitable. But, sadly, the addiction is still doing the talking. So we're here to say "no more." It's time to put down that fifth drink and walk away from the baccarat table, because no matter how many martinis you have and no matter how much money you lose, you're still a glorified accountant, not a secret agent. And that's fine. There's nothing that JPMorgan Chase, and the world economy for that matter, needs more than a very good accountant. Perhaps you will protest that you don't need this intervention. In fact, over the past few days you have repeatedly acknowledged your sloppiness, stupidity, and bad judgment. And though that sounds compelling and humble, as we know you expect it to, you haven't gone far enough to demonstrate that you understand just how deeply in trouble you are. And don't claim stupidity – "stupid" isn't a word associated with Jamie Dimon. You need to admit that you are powerless over your addiction and that your bank has become unmanageable. Here is what we ask of you: First, stop gambling with our money and our futures. Stop lobbying for deregulation — we are way past that now. Stop lying to us all by doing silly things like pushing proprietary trading into the treasury office and renaming it, or by pretending that there are no losses when there very clearly are, to the tune of $2,000,000,000 and growing. And, please, stop trying to convince us that nobody at JPMorgan Chase saw this coming. Ina Drew was offering to resign in April but you kept telling the world that nothing serious was amiss, a lie which could get you serious jail time. Second, admit that your bank is too big to take risks that neither you nor anyone in your bank understands or is able to handle, and that the only thing that will stop you from misbehaving is strong, enforced, and uncompromised regulation. Third, resign as Director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It is inappropriate, and dangerous to us, for you to oversee the banking system or the economy when you have proven incompetent at overseeing your own bank — particularly since the Federal Reserve is investigating your bank and your behavior. Because this in an intervention, you're going to need to get used to a lot of new folks who will challenge the bad decisions that have become habit for you. The SEC should be facilitating the first step by getting you into a full in-patient rehab program, where the Fed, the FDIC, and every other regulator who has an interest in your bank's good health can help you make a searching and fearless moral inventory of your bank and its choices. Although the "revolving door" connecting Wall Street to the Beltway has turned our regulatory agencies into the Keystone Kops of the 21st century, your crisis should serve as a wake-up call and put an end to their denial as well. When you reach your twelfth step, you can help the regulators write tougher regulations based on the knowledge you acquired during your efforts to undermine them. After all, if you can't manage the risk, then nobody can. And you've taken the first step by admitting that you can't. Now take the other eleven. Best regards,
|
| China, ETFs Dominating Bullion Investment: WGC Posted: 16 May 2012 11:36 PM PDT Gold climbed during volatile trading in Asia having recovered from the NY close yesterday. In European trading the yellow metal is hovering near the $1,548/oz level. Technically, gold's trend remains down but gold looks increasingly oversold. |
| Springheel Jack: Gold and Silver Update Posted: 16 May 2012 10:41 PM PDT
from slopeofhope.com: Just a quick update to cover the gold and silver charts I didn't have time to post this morning. On gold my second level of support has broken, the possible IHS forming is close to being eliminated as an option and my third level of support is possible declining channel or bull flag support in the 1500 area. There's some good support in the 1500 area and just below. If that fails then we are potentially looking at a fall much lower and I have the next key support levels just over 1300 and in the 1150 area:
On silver the immediate technical setup looks very clear, with the obvious next target at very strong support in the 26.15 area. That is an intersection of strong horizontal support, with the last two lows at 26.15 and a previous one at 26.30, with rising support from the 2008 low. This level is make or break for silver. It is the most likely area to see a reversal back up, and on a break below my next big support level is in the 19.50 – 20 area, with a possible declining channel support target in the 16.50 area:
In summary both gold and silver are now within reach of testing big support levels that I would expect to hold. If they don't hold then the technical outlook for both looks bleak over the next few months. Keep on reading @ slopeofhope.com |
| Manipulated Markets Can’t See the Future Posted: 16 May 2012 10:26 PM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Right now we are all in the unfortunate position of being hostage to the dubious forecasting abilities of the Fed and other Central Bankers, as if they are not proactive in putting in place another round of easing, just about every financial market will plunge. Even though it seems like they've done so much already — and there is political pressure on them to let up — once they started down this path then there was no choice but to keep increasing the flow of new currency. This is a big monetary experiment spiraling out of control. There is little doubt that gold will be much higher into the cycle peak scheduled for mid-2013, but there is cause for concern about a hyper-deflationary episode prior to that run up, similar to the Lehman debacle in late 2008. Of course markets will rally right back when the Fed reacts with Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| The Devil's Metal: Finding Opportunity in Silver, Posted: 16 May 2012 10:10 PM PDT
from theaureport.com: The Gold Report: Chris, Haywood Securities' estimated silver price for 2012 is $36/ounce (oz), but the "devil's metal" has averaged less so far in 2012, closing above $36/oz only once. Are you expecting a significantly stronger second half for silver? Chris Thompson: Silver performed relatively well in Q1/12. We hope that the silver price will find support at current levels of ~$28/oz through Q2/12 and Q3/12, with potential for a strong Q4/12. Looking at the silver price right now, I see that it's struggling to hold its head above $28/oz. If we do see a significant breakdown from $28/oz, it may somewhat compromise our forecast for this year averaging $36/oz. TGR: Do you think investors shy away from the silver space given its overall size and susceptibility to manipulation? CT: Silver is often referred to as the most volatile of all precious metals. In that sense, it's not for the faint-hearted investor. However, with volatility comes opportunity as long as timing is right. The benefit that silver provides is that it finds value as a store of wealth, as well as an ingredient used in industrial applications, so it offers investors a dual benefit where silver fundamentals benefit from economic growth as well as economic uncertainty. TGR: In an April 23, 2012, research report, you told investors to "look for quality over quantity" when it comes to silver equities. What makes quality? Keep on reading @ theaureport.com |
| George Soros Spikes Gold Position Posted: 16 May 2012 10:09 PM PDT Billionaire George Soros Spikes Gold Position; Yahoo Says Gold in Bear Market
from beaconequity.com: On the day GoldCore reports George Soros' nearly quadrupled his holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD in his latest SEC filing, Yahoo posts a front page article titled, Gold Tumbles Into Bear Market on Concern Greece May Leave Euro. As the latest example of media working with Washington to bamboozle the public, the reader of the Yahoo piece won't find an amplification of its salacious headline. On the other hand, gold specialist firm GoldCore reports on the same day that global insider George Soros told the SEC he raised his stake in GLD, dramatically. "Billionaire investor George Soros significantly increased his shares in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter. Soros Fund Management nearly quadrupled its investment in the largest exchange-traded gold fund (GLD) to 319,550 shares – compared with 85,450 shares at the end of the fourth quarter," stated gold market consulting firm GoldCore in an open letter to the public. In addition to its hit-and-run article title, Yahoo slyly touches on a significant talking point of the Fed's tactic of conditioning the uninformed investor into eschewing the only lifeboat available to most middle class investors during the global financial crisis—gold—by seducing the reader into believing that the U.S. dollar is a safe haven and that gold is merely another commodity vulnerable to terrible economic prospects. Keep on reading @ beaconequity.com |
| Another Signpost On The Road To Inflation Posted: 16 May 2012 10:05 PM PDT
from dollarcollapse.com: Europe's leaders — that is to say German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the bureaucrats running the various eurozone agencies from Brussels — have looked into the abyss and don't like what they see. Specifically, a default and departure by even a relatively insignificant country like Greece might start a contagion that cripples or destroys the whole eurozone. So despite the posturing now going on about a Greek exit being manageable and that there should be no give in core country demands for peripheral austerity, that's just for show. The bureaucracy will do just about anything to avoid finding out what's on the other side of a Greek departure. Today the hints of a softening began: Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials Calling talk of a Greek pullout from the euro "nonsense" and "propaganda," Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said only a "fully functioning" Greek government would be entitled to tinker with the conditions attached to 240 billion euros ($308 billion) of rescue aid. Keep on reading @ dollarcollapse.com |
| Japanese Pension Fund Buys Gold -- But Only the ETF Kind Posted: 16 May 2012 09:16 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold hit its low price tick of the day [about $1,525 spot] shortly after the London open yesterday morning...and by 9:40 a.m. in New York, the gold price was up about fifteen bucks off that low...and then spiked over fifteen bucks going into the London p.m. gold fix. That was the New York high at $1,553.50 spot. From there, it got sold off to its New York low [$1,530.10 spot] about twenty minutes after the close of Comex trading. The gold price then rallied about eight dollars going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Gold closed down four bucks on the day at $1,540.30 spot...but would have obviously closed substantially higher if it had been left to its own devices once the London p.m. gold fix was in...which it wasn't. Net volume was an absolutely astounding 200,000 contracts.
Silver was also under selling pressure in the Far East and London yesterday...and also set a new low shortly after the London open as well. From there it followed almost an identical price path to gold. The New York high [$28.10 spot] came about 10:30 a.m. Eastern...but once that high was in, the engineered sell-off continued anew...and by the time the carnage was over about six or seven minutes after the close of Comex trading, silver had hit its low of the day...and printed another low for this move down...$26.68 spot. The recovery off the bottom was instantaneous...and only a few minutes later, silver was back over the $27.00 mark...and closed the trading day at $27.27...down another 45 cents on the day...but 59 cents off its low price tick. Net volume was a stunning 55,000 contracts. From its New York high to its New York low, the silver price was savaged for $1.42...a hair over 5 percent. If you think that this sort of price activity was the free market in action, then you obviously only need to follow the daily precious metals advice that you will find at this link here.
The dollar index peaked around 81.58 just moments after the London open...and then declined a bit before spending the rest of Wednesday trading within 15 basis points of 81.35. The index finished up about 20 basis points on the day.
Not surprisingly, the gold stocks opened in the plus column...and then peaked at the 10:30 a.m. Eastern time, which was the high tick in the gold price. From there the gold stocks pretty much followed the metal's price...with the low coming shortly before 2:00 p.m...which was the low price tick for gold in New York. Even though gold finished down four bucks...the HUI finished in the black, but only by 0.20%.
There were some green arrows in the silver stocks yesterday...but with silver down as much as it was during the New York session, most of the silver equities were brutalized once again...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 0.68%.
(Click on image to enlarge) It was a nothing day for deliveries...and the CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. The GLD ETF showed a tiny withdrawal of 16,253 troy ounces, which was probably a fee payment of some kind...and there were no reported changes in SLV. Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank, both their gold and silver ETFs showed minor withdrawals of metal as of the close of trading on Tuesday. Their gold ETF showed a decline of 80,814 troy ounces...and their silver ETF declined 44,368 troy ounces. The U.S. Mint had another sales report. They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles...4,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 275,000 silver eagles. This brings the mint's month-to-date sales up to 36,000 ounces of gold eagles...5,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,410,000 silver eagles. There wasn't a lot of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. They reported receiving 300,253 ounces of silver...and shipped a smallish 13,894 ounce of the stuff out the door. The link to that action is here. Silver analyst Ted Butler was at the top of his game with his mid-week market commentary...headlined "In Search of the Bottom"...to paying subscribers yesterday. Here are three free paragraphs...and the first three from his report... "I can't call it unique, nor can I claim to be unfamiliar with the present circumstance of silver and gold price weakness. I didn't predict it, but that doesn't mean I can't see what caused it. The fact that the situation is so familiar makes it depressing in many ways; yet understanding what will occur at some point is encouraging. Of course, I'm speaking of the bottom in the price of silver and gold that is being established." "I believe that the most plausible and verifiable explanation is usually the correct explanation. Since the top of silver prices on Feb 28 at $37, the $10 price decline (so far) has allowed the commercials on the COMEX to buy back and reduce their total net short position by 30,000 contracts (150 million ounces), as speculators sold that same net amount. The biggest commercial silver short, JPMorgan, bought back almost half that amount. In gold, the commercials bought back 100,000 net contracts (10 million oz) on the $150 price decline from the top on Feb 28." "Not only are these figures verified by CFTC COT data, the amounts of metal represented in the COMEX maneuvering since Feb 28 dwarf any other verifiable gold and silver ownership changes throughout the world. In fact, the world's holdings in gold and silver ETFs (the largest privately held stores of metal) have been quite stable over the past six months or more. Therefore, the most obvious and plausible and verifiable explanation for the price decline has to be COMEX maneuvering. The next obvious question is who was doing the maneuvering; the commercials or the speculators? Since it is unthinkable that independent speculators would collude for the purpose of losing money, it is clear that the commercials were doing the maneuvering. This is old stuff, of course, but I repeat it because it is important to understand how any market works." Here's a nifty chart of all the big New York money center banks. It shows the decline in their respective share prices since the end of March. The 'click to enlarge' feature will be useful here. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along.
Here are two more charts from Washington state reader S.A. They put the current engineered price declines in both gold and silver in some sort of long-term perspective.
Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me this 3-year chart of the HUI...along with the following comment..."Incredible HUI Chart: You'd think that gold is under $1,000!"
(Click on image to enlarge) Reader Scott Pluschau has posted a blog over at his Internet site that's headlined "Target 2 reached in silver [Copper target reached]"...and you can read all about it here. I have the usual number of stories today...and a lot of them are well worth reading. The lows we saw in all the precious metals just after the Comex close looked like a final capitulation to me...not only in price, but in volume World Gold Council: 1Q Gold Demand Falls 5% From Year Ago; Jewelry Demand Dips But Investment Up. Grandich, Sinclair do hand-holding for monetary metals investors. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeJP Morgan's $2 Billion Trading Loss Is Already $3 Billion (And Counting)Jamie Dimon said it could get worse...and it is. The JP Morgan trading loss that was $2 billion four days ago is now $3 billion, report Nelson Schwartz and Jessica Silver-Greenberg in The New York Times. Why? Because every hedge fund in the world knows JP Morgan is stuck in a position so big that it can't unwind it... and they're taking the other side of the trade. Great shades of LTCM...as this is precisely what happened to them when they tried to get out of all their losing trades. Eric Sprott's comments about further loses by JPMorgan in his New York speech yesterday were prophetic. This story was posted on the businessinsider.com website late yesterday evening...and it's worth the read. I thank Roy Stephens for sending this...and the link is here.  "Jon Corzine - What's Going On?"It pays to be rich, powerful and a Democrat with friends in Washington. While Anna Gristina, a Connecticut mother accused of being a New York "madam" sits in a cell on Riker's Island, Jon Corzine, the former CEO of MF Global sits at home in his New Jersey mansion. MF Global had been a publically traded securities firm with $40 billion in assets, but with liabilities even larger, filed for bankruptcy late last year, after being accused of co-mingling customer funds with its own, a flagrant violation of securities law. This most excellent essay showed up over at The Daily Reckoning yesterday...and is a hoot to read! Corzine was also involved in the LTCM debacle as well. As one of the 'rescuers'...he knew all their positions...and he and his firm [Goldman Sachs] were betting heavily against them. This guy is a real piece of work, dear reader. Once again I thank Roy Stephens for sharing this with us...and the link is here.  Has The Simple Retail Investor Become Smarter Than Sophisticated QIBs?There was a time when retail investors were mocked and derided by all: after all whenever the big boys needed to unload they jest blew the whistle, and like obedient lap dogs retail would buy at the very peak of the market because "stocks are a once in a lifetime buy", leading to what some call distribution, and others, a plunge. Not any more. In spite of the recent 20% surge in stocks, following a pattern absolutely identical to the one from September 2010 to March 2011, for the entire 32 week duration of the artificial central bank induced rally beginning October 5, there were a total of 3 weeks of inflows into the market, totaling a whopping $2.8 billion. The outflows: 29 weeks for a total of $96.6 billion, with $2.4 billion pulled out in the most recent week. This short but worthwhile read was posted over at zerohedge.com yesterday...and the graph is worth the trip all by itself. Make sure you click on it so you can view the whole thing. As reader U.D. said..."Has the electronic casino, a.k.a. the stock market lost a key play...the sheeple?" The link is here.  That Ugly Market Pattern Keeps On HappeningA pattern that we've observed before is how pathetic the stock market has been behaving these days. Each day we see periods of downs and ups, but in the end, the market ends down, usually fairly near the lows, with miserable performance in the final hour. Today was no exception, as a nothing day (that at one point was decently higher after the FOMC minutes came out at 2:00 PM ET), turned into a 0.4% loss. You've just read three of the four short paragraphs of this businessinsider.com piece from yesterday evening. The graph that accompanies the article is definitely worth a quick look. This is another story courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.  Fed minutes: More members open to stimulus measuresMinutes of the central bank's April 24-25 meeting released Wednesday stated that "several members" thought additional Fed support could be needed if the recovery lost momentum or if the risks to the economy became great enough. The minutes did not spell out what circumstances would trigger further Fed efforts to lower interest rates to boost the economy. But they did note some threats to the U.S. economy. One is Europe's debt crisis. Another is the risk that spending cuts and tax increases that could take effect at year's end if Congress can't reach a budget agreement could slow growth more than expected. The comments stood in contrast to the previous minutes, which said that only "a couple" of members expressed support for further bond purchases. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has pursued two rounds of bond purchases to try to push down long-term interest rates, with a goal of encouraging borrowing and spending. This usatoday.com piece was posted on their Internet site early yesterday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. The link is here.  Greece on brink of collapseEurope's financial crisis lurched into a perilous new phase as dire predictions emerged of a collapse in Greece's economy, with a run on its banks bringing an inevitable end to its membership of the euro. As leaders in Athens accepted the need for a new general election to end a national stalemate, the International Monetary Fund said Europe's leaders should prepare for the possibility of a Greek departure from the single currency. Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, warned she was "technically prepared for anything" and said the utmost effort must be made to ensure any Greek exit was orderly. The effect was likely to be "quite messy" with risks to growth, trade and financial markets. "It is something that would be extremely expensive and would pose great risks but it is part of options that we must technically consider," she said. This story was posted on The Telegraph's Internet site on Tuesday evening...and I dug it out of yesterday's King Report...and the link is here.  Posted: 16 May 2012 09:16 PM PDT  The first is with Rick Santelli...and it's headlined "Traders Taxing JPMorgan to Exit Losing Postions". The second is with technical analyst Louise Yamada. It's entitled "We Now Have Massive Tops on Global Markets". And lastly is this blog with Caesar Bryan of Gabelli & Company...and it's headlined "read more |
| Posted: 16 May 2012 09:16 PM PDT  Europe's financial crisis lurched into a perilous new phase as dire predictions emerged of a collapse in Greece's economy, with a run on its banks bringing an inevitable end to its membership of the euro. As leaders in Athens accepted the need for a new general election to end a national stalemate, the International Monetary Fund said Europe's leaders should prepare for the possibility of a Greek departure from the single currency. |
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