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- AngloGold Ashanti Could Jump 20% In 2013
- Pan American Silver Management Discusses Q1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
- After Spain is Italy Next?
- ...gold down to $50 an ounce.
- THE PAPER GOLD AND SILVER GAME IS ABOUT TO END
- Liquidation of “Crowded” Gold Trade Pauses But “Clean-Out of Weak Hands Necessary”
- Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is
- IMF To Buy Gold? Not
- GEAB N°65 is available! Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2012 – Convergence of four explosive factors: Banks-Stock Exchanges-Pensions-Debts
- ECB: gold and gold receivables remain unchanged
- Ghanaian government causing headache for mining companies
- The Bear Facts of the Bullion Market
- ‘Crowded’ Gold Trade Needs to Lose ‘Weak Hands’ Investors
- Soros, Pimco, Paulson & Teachers Buy Gold in Q1
- Commodities Sold on Greece Woes – Fed Minutes Ahead
- Gold will save us
- Gold & Gold Miners Close in on Major Bottom
- India's Temple Of Gold
- Investors favour dollar over gold even as Goldman Sachs sees rally
- Central banks aim to redistribute gold...
- Nasdaq Index Best For Signaling Forecasts And Leadership
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 16 2012
- Checking the Vaults: Germans Fret About Their Foreign Gold Reserves
- Jim Puplava: Keeping the Faith: Holding Onto Your Gold Stocks When Your Emotions Tell You To Sell
- Soros Ramps Up Gold ETF Holdings
- Miners will need $3,000 gold price to be profitable, WGC head says
| AngloGold Ashanti Could Jump 20% In 2013 Posted: 16 May 2012 06:28 AM PDT By Mel Daris: According to the general belief, gold has been the yardstick for major investment decisions as it is the most stable commodity in the market. Thus, it is not surprising that investors in gold usually do well in nearly every fiscal quarter or year barring any volatility induced by stoppages in production. Interestingly, one gold stock that perfectly fits the bill of a rising gold stock is AngloGold Ashanti (AU). The trend starts with the recent announcement of the first-quarter results, which saw the stock rising with adjusted earnings of $429 million. This is about $1.11 per share, which more than doubles the earnings for the same period in the previous year. In essence, the first-quarter results clearly show that AngloGold Ashanti was able to rise even with the fact that production went down 6% to 981,000oz, due to the safety stoppages in South Africa. However, in recent news, the company's Complete Story » |
| Pan American Silver Management Discusses Q1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript Posted: 16 May 2012 06:00 AM PDT Pan American Silver (PAAS) Q1 2012 Earnings Call May 16, 2012 11:00 am ET Executives Kettina Cordero Geoffrey A. Burns - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director and Member of Health, Safety & Environmental Committee Steven L. Busby - Chief Operating Officer Michael Steinmann - Executive Vice President of Geology & Exploration Robert G. Doyle - Chief Financial Officer Analysts Ralph M. Profiti - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Trevor Turnbull - Scotiabank Global Banking and Market, Research Division Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets Canada Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division John D. Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Presentation Operator Good morning. My name is Adam, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pan American Silver Corp. First Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] . Kettina Cordero, you may begin your conference. Complete Story » |
| Posted: 16 May 2012 05:30 AM PDT Why Read: Because now that Spain's economic woes are close to the center of world economic attention you need to focus on Italy – while still keeping Greece, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands squarely on your ever more crowded radar screen. Featured Article: A May 15 article focuses on Italy's current debt levels and debt yields, reporting on:
Commentary: Having suggested some months ago, when Spain seemed to be off most media radar screens when it seemed it should be on them all, it now seems Italy is moving ever closer to joining Greece and Spain as an important 'center of attention'. Consider that France may be several months behind, but given its recent non-austerity government mandate, is nonetheless 'in the theatre', perhaps edging toward 'the wings' and might yet tip-toe toward center stage. Supplementary to the foregoing;
Clearly, increased focus should be directed to Italy going forward. Simply put, Spain may well prove to be 'too big to fail', at least for the time being. If that is true, it has to be even more the case with Italy. If concern is being voiced with respect to possible contagion issues related to Greece, imagine the escalated extent of contagion concern if Spain's and Italy's economies continue to deteriorate. Importantly, watch for escalated discussion and concern over real and nominal GDP growth generally, and country specific real and nominal GDP growth. Simply put, without real GDP growth economic trends in the developed and developing countries are virtually certain not to be positive. That said, pay careful attention to media and other data on Italy going forward as you think about and plan your financial affairs. Italy is definitely something to discuss with your investment advisor(s), and most astute financial friends. Moody's Downgrades Italian Banks Source: The Wall Street Journal, David Enrich, May 15, 2012 Reading time: 3 minutes Italy's banks shaken as economic slump deepens Source: The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, May 15, 2012 Reading time: 4 minutes List of countries by GDP (nominal) Source: Wikipedia Reading time: 3 minutes Source: Trading Economics Reading time: 1 minute Source: Trading Economics Reading time: 1 minute Europe's perpetual 'wasted youth' Source: Business Spectator, Marco Annuziata, May 14, 2012 Reading time: 3 minutes
Today's 'Speak For Themselves' World Headlines Why Read These Headlines: Save Time and Stay Informed. These Headlines have been personally filtered this morning from over 1,200 articles canvassing economic and resource news. Another chart of the day: Greek bank deposits collapse Overview: Discusses Greek private sector deposits and possible Greek bank run Source: Credit Writedowns, Edward Harrison, May 16, 2012 Reading time: 2 minutes Meet the Man Who Controls More Money than Ben Bernanke Overview: Discusses China Central Bank, Chinese inflation, and Chinese bad banking debts Source: Financial Sense, Dan Collins, May 15, 2012 Reading time: 3 minutes Today's Unabridged E-mail includes six other 'Speak For Themselves' Headlines dealing with the following topics:
Prospective Resource Prices? Why Read: Because the author of this article might be right, and it is always worth reading and thinking about an increasingly expressed view. Featured Article: A May 10 article says that as a result of what the author claims to be an expected Chinese economy 'hard landing', that China's "intense demand" for commodities (other than agricultural commodities) is….. (continue reading) Commentary reading time 2 minutes. Referenced article(s) reading time 8 minutes, thinking time much longer. Discussion with investment advisor(s) recommended
President Obama – How Long Is The Straw? Why Read: Because what is said here is something to think seriously about. Commentary: Consider the following:
Commentary reading time 2 minutes.
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| Posted: 16 May 2012 05:18 AM PDT ....don't know what to make of this. Gold to Hit $10,000 an Ounce, Experts Conclude. But . . . A certain "trigger event" will send gold prices to $10,000 an ounce, Chief Investment Officer John Butler told Reuters from his office at Amphora Capital. And despite this incident having NOTHING to do with United States, it would spell doom for the mighty dollar . . . and overnight riches for those invested in gold. Butler isn't alone in thinking that gold will soar. Nick Barisheff, president and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., states the yellow metal "will almost certainly rise to $10,000 an ounce and beyond." With gold trading near $1,650 an ounce, a jump to $10,000 in the next year would hand windfall profits of 500%+ for those who are positioned correctly. However, one economist, Robert Wiedemer, not only predicts a massive rally in gold's price, but also foresees a historic sell-off that will send gold down to $50 an ounce. (Article continues below video.) more at link...http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/...MO_CODE=ECE1-1 |
| THE PAPER GOLD AND SILVER GAME IS ABOUT TO END Posted: 16 May 2012 05:09 AM PDT Paper Gold & Silver Ponzi Exposed Wednesday, May 16, 2012 Anyone watching the gold and silver market understands that something is not right. KSIR Capital objectively looks at the fundamentals to expose that there seems to be no one behind this current move. THE PAPER GOLD AND SILVER GAME IS ABOUT TO END There has been a constant debate over the years on what drives the price of gold and silver. Obviously we have the fundamentals that have put the metals in a bullmarket for the last 10 years. The powers that be have total control over money, asthey set the price for capital via manipulating the interest rates. So it is not a stretchthat they would be concerned with a rising gold price because gold is a threat to howthe current fiat regime functions on a day-to-day basis. Without Mr. Bernake able tostep in and buy US treasury bills, where would interest rates be? How would we fundour deficits? These are just some of the reasons why it is important for the elites topay attention to the price of gold and silver.Knowing this, the powers that be have instructed their banking arms JPMorgan,HSBC, Goldman Sachs and the like, to create paper derivatives to help manage theprice. But what happens when we get to a threshold point where the physical marketbreaks the back of the paper derivatives? We think that time is near. The Accumulation Distribution Line developed by Marc Chaikin is a volume-based indicator designed to measure the cumulative flow of money into and out of a security.Chaikin originally referred to the indicator as the Cumulative Money Flow Line. As with cumulative indicators, the Accumulation Distribution Line is a running total of each period's Money Flow Volume. First, a multiplier is calculated based on the relationship of the close to the high-low range. Second, the Money Flow Multiplier is multiplied by the period's volume to come up with a Money Flow Volume. A running total of the Money Flow Volume forms the Accumulation Distribution Line. Chartists can use this indicator to affirm a security's underlying trend or anticipate reversals when the indicator diverges from the security price.We think this, along with other technical indicators, is screaming BS on the paper gold and silver game. If you take a look at the chart below, you can see that the indicator has confirmed this bull cycle as money has continued to move out of paper assets and into the physical. Currently we see an extreme divergence. continued here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/93775585/P...old-and-Silver (I couldn't get the graphs to post, so to see them you will have to go to the link) |
| Liquidation of “Crowded” Gold Trade Pauses But “Clean-Out of Weak Hands Necessary” Posted: 16 May 2012 04:24 AM PDT
Liquidation of "Crowded" Gold Trade Pauses But "Clean-Out of Weak Hands Necessary" BENCHMARK prices to buy gold for London settlement rallied more than $10 an ounce off new five-month lows beneath $1528 on Wednesday morning, bouncing as the Euro, world stock markets and commodity prices also paused this month's sharp liquidation. Spanish and Italian bond yields also eased back but remaind over 6% after Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy told the parliament in Madrid there is "a serious risk that the markets won't lend to us or lend only at astronomical prices." Over in Greece – where the daily "bank run" of withdrawn Euro deposits is now totaling some €700m per day – president Karolos Papoulias meantime appointed a judge to act as interim prime minister and set the date for an election re-run as 17th June. "[Gold] selling continued in Asia today across all exchanges," says Swiss refinery and finance group MKS in a note. "Market participants have given up waiting for a bounce," says a Singapore dealer. "The market will do what it needs to do to clean out the weakly margined before it becomes healthy once again." Hedge-fund legend George Soros opted to buy gold in the first quarter of 2012, reversing previous sales according to new data from March 31st released yesterday and showing his fund more than trebling its position in the $60 billion New York-listed SPDR gold ETF. Fellow billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson – who represents the largest single holder of SPDR Gold shares – maintained his clients' stake, leaving it unchanged for the first time since June 2011 at the equivalent of 53.8 tonnes. Losing 8% since end-March, prices to buy gold have now lost one-fifth from the record Dollar peak of September last year – "the common definition of a bear market," notes Bloomberg News. "This is an example of our old friend 'the crowded trade'," reckons John Ventre, manager of Skandia's Spectrum and multi-asset funds, speaking to Investment Week. "Very many investors now own the asset, even though the market is in fact incredibly small. As investors – particularly levered ones like hedge funds – take losses in other parts of their portfolio, then selling pressure emerges across the board as investors pull their horns in." The spot-price to buy gold "is not far from our downside target zone at the September and December 2011 lows," says the latest weekly report from technical analyst Axel Rudolph at Commerzbank in Luxembourg. "Over the next few days a minor bounce back towards the breached 2008-12 uptrend line is likely to be seen before another down leg rears its head, probably by next week." Together with gold Wednesday morning, silver bullion also bounced from new five-month lows, adding 50¢ to trade above $27.70 per ounce. Over on the Hong Kong stock exchange, however, shares in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group – the world's biggest publicly listed jewelry retailer – closed 10% down at an all-time record low. Along with the rest of Asia, the Hang Seng Index overall fell for the 9th session in ten, while US crude oil dropped through $93 per barrel and copper contracts dropped another 1.5% on the day. "Gold's slide has to be put in perspective with other commodities," says Walter de Wet at Standard Bank in London, pointing to the 1-month drops in crude oil, platinum and copper. While prices to buy gold have lost 7%, "Even [emerging-market] currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the South African Rand have depreciated 7.9% and 5% respectively against the US Dollar. "Liquidation is taking place irrespective of market fundamentals." "Jewelers don't know what to do," says Ronald Leung, head of Hong Kong's Lee Cheong Gold Dealers, speaking to Reuters. "Maybe when the price has stabilised at some levels, they will start to reenter the market. There's a bit of scale-down buying." Some wire reports said Wednesday that demand to buy gold had picked up despite a fresh record low in the Indian Rupee capping the new lows in the world's #1 consumer market. "Amid drying-up demand in off season," says NDTV – pointing to the traditional summer lull between wedding and festival periods – these lower gold prices "could ease the burden on [India's] import bill." India's gold bullion imports equaled some 2.6% of GDP last year, almost equal to the country's entire balance of trade deficit. On top of 2012′s quadrupling of import duty, "Gold imports could be discouraged by creating opportunities for more productive investments in the economy," writes RV Kanoria, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) – fresh from urging the privatization of India's coal-mining sector – in the Economic Times of India today. "A better investment climate through focus on reforms will steer investors to look towards ventures than just stock up gold." Adrian Ash Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is Posted: 16 May 2012 03:19 AM PDT When we last visited this price area on gold in December 2011, I challenged the loud-mouthed gold bears to wager $1 million dollars on gold hitting $2,000 before $1,000. I offered the world's worst gold forecaster and the "Tokyo Rose" of the gold market to double that bet. |
| Posted: 16 May 2012 02:42 AM PDT |
| Posted: 16 May 2012 02:17 AM PDT - Public announcement GEAB N°65 (May 16th, 2012) -  Whilst waiting for Euroland to equip itself, by the end of 2012, with a medium to long term common political, economic and social project, especially following the election of the new French president François Hollande, anticipated many months ago by LEAP/E2020, players will remain prisoners of the short-term reflexes related to the sudden Greek political tremors, the uncertainties over Euroland governance and to the risks in public debts. At the same time, in the United States, the disappearance of the illusion of a recovery (1) combined with the renewal of concerns over the American financial sector's state of health (of which J P Morgan has just illustrated the fragility) and the big comeback of the country's debt problem is leading economic and financial players to contemplate an increasingly worrying future (2). In the United Kingdom, the country's return to recession is combining with the failure to control deficits and the rise of working-class anger in the face of an austerity which has however only just begun (3). In Japan, economic sluggishness and the weakening of exports in a context of world recession (4) have brought the spectrum of the country's excessive debt back to the surface. In this context, according to LEAP/E2020, the second half of 2012 will be the preferred moment for the convergence of four explosive factors for the Western economies: banks, stock exchanges, pensions and debts. For economic, financial or political players as for simple households, this convergence will cause major risks to weigh on the state of their finances as well as on their aptitude to face the challenges to come. Therefore, in this GEAB issue our team expands on its anticipations concerning these four explosive factors of the second half of 2012 as well as the recommendations to minimize their negative consequences. In addition, LEAP/E2020 sets out its new anticipation on the global systemic crisis' consequences as regards international languages (on a world level and in Europe) out to 2030 in order to help parents and children, as well as teaching institutions, make the correct language learning choices today. In this GEAB N°65 press release, our team has chosen to introduce the explosive factor relating to public and private debt  Debts: difficult to manage sovereign debt and deadly private debt… creditors painfully approach the day of reckoning and people an explosion of anger LEAP/E2020 announced it in 2008 and repeated it many times since. There was approximately 30 trillion USD of phantom assets in the world financial system of which about 15 trillion USD remains, which will mostly fly off by the end of 2012. The good news is that as from then, one can seriously contemplate the rebuilding of a healthy world financial system. The bad news is that is during the quarters to come this 15 trillion USD will go up in smoke. That implies, of course, as we have previously suggested, the bankruptcy (and/or rescue by the States) of 10% to 20% of Western banks. And this time, unlike 2008/2009, the shareholders will be the first victims (including in the United States), whatever the priority of their rights (5). Only shareholders carrying significant geopolitical weight will be treated with consideration (sovereign funds, friendly States…). As regards private debts, households will mainly, in particular in the United States and the United Kingdom, have to face the consequences of the increase in the resulting insolvency rates which will affect them on their own. Caught in the trap of austerity and recession, the Western States no longer have the wherewithal to help the middle class as long as growth hasn't picked up a little bit. And sadly, that won't be the case by the end of 2012. Moreover, in the United States one is currently seeing the student debt issue in the process of turning itself into a "subprime encore" (6). Increasing fees due to the end of a Federal state grants policy and political paralysis in Washington against attempts to control the federal deficit are in the process of creating a disaster for millions of young Americans and their parents. In Europe, the United Kingdom has already decided to let its middle class face its record debt alone. That comes down to causing it to fall into the underprivileged class. The next few months will see a new sudden confrontation between this British middle class and its leaders almost exclusively belonging to the upper-class. On the continent, via votes rejecting leaders who were disciples of austerity as the one and only solution to the public debt crisis, the people have opened a major democratic confrontation with the elite in place for nearly twenty years, and at creditors' beck and call. The attempt which personifies the new French president, François Hollande, to open a middle way between austerity and Keynesian reflation which have both failed or are impossible politically or budget-wise, will succeed (because it's the only politically and budgetary viable one from now on (7)) but not before the end of 2012 (8). Meanwhile, sudden political tremors as in Greece and complex negotiations at Euroland's core will dominate the agenda, making creditors and their exhalation, and the markets increasingly nervous (9). And this market nervousness is heightened by the awareness of the infinite brittleness of the Wall Street and City financial institutions vis-a-vis the risk of non-repayment of debts: national or private. They are almost the last assets on their balance sheet from which they still hope to be able to recover significant value.  From the end of summer 2012, the return of the topic of the United States' unmanageable debt, related to the automatic budget reductions imposed in the event of Congress' non-agreement on debt reduction, will start a "Taxmageddon (10) » in the USA. One will thus witness the remake of the detonator-bomb tandem that European and American debts already played with in summer 2011, but this time in a much more powerful version. In fact, if fears of seeing the Euro and Euroland exploding have disappeared (11), they will be replaced by a danger much more alarming to the markets: the massive and sudden monetization of US debt (12). In addition, this situation will show up in the United States in a context of complete political paralysis (13), with a Congress partitioned by the emergence of radical factions in the Republican ("Tea-Party") as well as the Democrat party ("Occupy Wall Street") (14). -------- Notes: (1) A recovery so illusory that it has given rise to a return to "subprime" practices. And even the price of milk, a reliable signal of economic slowdown, points towards recession. Sources: CNBC, 26/04/2012 ; New York Times, 10/04/2012 (2) On this subject, remember that the US government and the Fed must now create 2.5$ of debt to generate 1$ of growth. It's the problem which any economy whose debt becomes excessive meets. It's the kind of "detail" that Keynesians like Krugman forget to mention when they indiscriminately claim that austerity policies are absurd. As for any common sense approach, which takes the real world into account and not economic theories, a balance is needed between debt reduction and the support of growth. It is, moreover, the path which Euroland will take as of this summer; whereas the United States continues to deny the need to deal with their runaway debt. (3) Source: WallStreetJournal, 13/05/2012 (4) Sources: TimesofIndia, 11/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 06/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 28/03/2012 ; Washington Post, 11/05/2012 ; USAToday, 13/04/2012 ; CNBC, 06/04/2012 (5) Source: MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 (6) Source: CERF, 21/04/2012 (7) Since February 2012 and the GEAB N°62, our team set out its anticipation on Euroland 2012-2016 in detail and the events in progress confirm it to us in our analysis (if you wish to have a "live" presentation of Euroland and Europe's prospects, you can also take a look at Franck Biancheri speech in English on the 2nd May to 1,000 delegates of the principal European student network AEGEE-EUROPE). By this summer, after the June 2012 French legislative elections, a six-handed agreement on a austerity/growth balance will be found (France/Germany/Italy/Netherlands/Belgium/Spain) which will be carried out by Euroland+ (Euroland plus the other countries involved in the EMS). (8) In Germany also increasingly numerous and loud voices are demanding a more balanced way because the social costs of German economic success are starting to increasingly weigh on a growing part of the population. Source: Spiegel, 04/05/2012 (9) For example, the Norwegian sovereign fund has decided to dispose of its sovereign debt assets in the weak Euroland countries. However, with regard to the Euro, LEAP/E2020 points out that there is no reason to worry and, on the contrary, by the end of 2012 it's the US Dollar which will account for the downwards shock. Sources: LeFigaro, 05/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 09/05/2012 (10) A buzz word created from the two words "Tax" and "Armageddon". It indicates the tax chaos which will reign at the end of 2012 at the time when choices for massive budgetary cuts in the US federal budget will be required. For nearly a year, the United States and the international financial press have chosen to carefully ignore this major problem. It will only be more difficult to manage when it makes its presence felt on the landscape again. (11) As we underlined last January, it's one of the big differences between the current Greek crisis and the anti-Euro hysteria of 2010/2011. If, today, it's theoretically possible to consider Greece exiting Euroland without a questioning of the single currency, the fact remains that in reality such an exit is impossible. Besides it's one of the problems with which the Greek leaders are confronted. We emphasise this point to recall that on this subject economists, who live in theoretical worlds with little or no relationship to reality, have been constantly wrong for months. The champions of the end of the Euro, from Krugman to Roubini, have as much credibility on the matter as the Roman haruspices which divined the future from animals' entrails. To return to Greece, LEAP/E2020 takes the view that whilst the leaders of the two major government parties (PASOK and ND ) belong to the generation which led the country into this historic crisis, there will be no viable political exit absent popular confidence… Therefore, it's for the Euroland leaders, and in particular Angela Merkel via the EPP and François Hollande via the PES, to put pressure on their respective "parties-in-arms" so that by September 2012 and the next elections, the whole leadership of these two parties are replaced by one less than 45 years old. The current success of the extreme-left Syrisa party is due as much to its ideas as at the age of its leader: 38. A process of this type has been used to manage to get an end of the road Silvio Berlusconi to give up power. The means thus exist. And whilst on the subject, it's a question of making it possible for the Greeks to find confidence in new leaders, from the right or left, inclusive. To really understand why a Greek Eurozone exit is impossible in practice, only one example is needed: if you were Greek, and it was suggested that you exchange your Euros for new Drachmas, what would you do? No comment! (12) Even the former US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has now joined the chorus of those who warn of this serious risk in the short-term. Source: Reuters, 10/05/2012 (13) Whether it is Barack Obama or Mitt Romney who wins the presidential election. (14) See GEAB N°60 |
| ECB: gold and gold receivables remain unchanged Posted: 16 May 2012 02:16 AM PDT |
| Ghanaian government causing headache for mining companies Posted: 16 May 2012 02:00 AM PDT Ghana is one of the most resource-rich countries in West Africa, and is especially well-endowed as far as gold is concerned. After the abolition of apartheid, South African mining companies in ... |
| The Bear Facts of the Bullion Market Posted: 16 May 2012 01:36 AM PDT The uber-critical $1,527 line of gold's price defense came into play overnight as we had recently pondered here, and this time around, despite all the denials of the fact and protestations to the contrary, the gold market entered the cave of the bear |
| ‘Crowded’ Gold Trade Needs to Lose ‘Weak Hands’ Investors Posted: 16 May 2012 12:10 AM PDT Benchmark prices to buy gold for London settlement rallied more than $10 an ounce off new five-month lows beneath $1,528 on Wednesday morning, bouncing as the euro, world stock markets and commodity prices also paused this month's sharp liquidation. |
| Soros, Pimco, Paulson & Teachers Buy Gold in Q1 Posted: 15 May 2012 11:34 PM PDT Gold traded off in Asia hitting a low of $1,526.80/oz. then recovered as the market opened in Europe and is now trading near $1,537.25. Support at $1,550 has been breached and gold is now testing support between $1,523/oz. and $1,533/oz. |
| Commodities Sold on Greece Woes – Fed Minutes Ahead Posted: 15 May 2012 11:14 PM PDT Commodity prices are trading broadly lower in European hours as risk aversion grips financial markets, weighing on sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices while boosting the safe-haven US dollar to put de-facto downward pressure on gold and silver. |
| Posted: 15 May 2012 10:49 PM PDT
from thepreciousindex.com: I don't think most people get it yet, how quickly the debt snowball is rolling through the wallets of our country, how fast it will gain speed over the next decade, and what this will do to our country. As it moves faster and gets larger it will change the standard of living for every hard working American. The only solution government officials will have, will be to put the United States through bankruptcy or to monetize the debt by printing money. Printing more fiat paper will be the most popular and likely option. Our experiment in fiat currency and the complacency that went with it has run its course. Keep on reading @ thepreciousindex.com |
| Gold & Gold Miners Close in on Major Bottom Posted: 15 May 2012 10:25 PM PDT The "wall of worries" permeates the financial landscape as risk at present seems unprecedented. The list of macroeconomic concerns ranges from the European sovereign debt crisis to escalation of military action in the Middle East. |
| Posted: 15 May 2012 10:22 PM PDT
from zerohedge.com: India is known for its historically high per capita demand for gold, particularly before festivals and the wedding season, which peaks in the months of October to December. With more than ¼ of the entire global world market for the metal, the country has long been leading world demand, though fellow BRIC member China is catching up. But recent developments in India have gold bugs stirring – protests, boycotts, and a proposal for a tax on the sale on gold jewelry has severely dampened demand ahead of one of the most lucrative festivals in the country. And with global gold prices down more than 10% since their February high of $1,787.75, there seems to be good reason to worry about India's role in the decline. But a longer-term analysis of Indian demand, global gold prices, and global GDP yield some surprising results about the country's connection to the metal. While acceleration in gold prices and Indian GDP seem to link up as do Indian demand and global GDP growth, increases in demand have little correlation to gold price growth. Similarly, rampant inflation has almost no role in stifling demand for the metal. If these correlations hold true in 2012, gold investors might be able to sleep a little easier. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Investors favour dollar over gold even as Goldman Sachs sees rally Posted: 15 May 2012 10:20 PM PDT
from mineweb.com: Investors are reducing gold holdings for a third month, the longest stretch since 2004, and favoring the dollar as a haven from Europe's debt crisis, even as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts record prices for the metal. Bullion erased its gains for 2012 this week as the dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a record 12 straight days. Gold held in exchange-traded products fell 30.8 metric tons since reaching a record 2,410.2 tons on March 13, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, ABN Amro Bank NV and Barclays Plc cut their forecasts in May, though Goldman expects prices to rise 25 percent to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com |
| Central banks aim to redistribute gold... Posted: 15 May 2012 09:58 PM PDT ...and push it way up http://www.gata.org/files/QBAMCO-May2012.pdf Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In their May letter, Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance of QB Asset Management in New York argue that the investment case for gold is to a great extent a matter of its likely official revaluation upward to support confidence-based currencies that have lost the market's confidence. |
| Nasdaq Index Best For Signaling Forecasts And Leadership Posted: 15 May 2012 09:12 PM PDT Good common sense on fundamentals and technicals say we should be selling. Artificial propping and other types of manipulation say "Look At The Support," after all, this is an election year.
"The NASDAQ rallied Friday despite down days from Apple and Starbucks. Despite what our consumer culture tells us from the ubiquity of iPhones and those coffee cups with the familiar logo, two stocks don't make an index. Instead, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished higher on reports of positive corporate earnings (which is seemingly rational), and the likelihood of a Socialist Party victory in France (which is seemingly insane)." "The TV talking heads were spinning the story that we may see European economic stabilization because Francois Hollande, the socialist party candidate, is now leading in the French polls." "The last time a socialist was elected president in France was 1981, when Francois Mitterand unseated Valery Giscard-d'Estaing. The French stock market lost -33% of its value within a month of the election and bond yields rose by 250 basis points (from below 14% to about 17%). By 1983, Mitterand was backpedaling on his socialist policies and trying to undo the damage they had inflicted on the French economy." "But history doesn't matter, because suddenly austerity is "out", which means that spending is back "in." "Of course spending requires money and since most of Europe has none, the ECB needs to crank-up the printing presses so the French socialists and the other fledgling European regimes can try to spend their way out of not only a recession, but impending governmental collapse." "But we know the fallacy of those policies. Hollande has pledged his allegiance to a "growth compact" in the ECB which means nothing more than the ridiculous notion of forced liquidity. Bonjour Ben, meet your French friends." larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com Trading Advantage
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| Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 16 2012 Posted: 15 May 2012 09:00 PM PDT |
| Checking the Vaults: Germans Fret About Their Foreign Gold Reserves Posted: 15 May 2012 08:58 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold set another new low for this move down about an hour before London opened yesterday. From that low, the gold price rallied right a bit right up until the Comex open...and was under a bit of selling pressure from that point onward. But the major selling pressure came once the Comex was through trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time...with the low price tick of the day [$1,540.70 spot] coming just moments before 4:00 p.m. in New York in the very thinly traded electronic market. From that low, gold recovered a few dollars going into the close at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Gold finished the Thursday trading day at $1,544.30...down another $12.20. Net volume was pretty decent at around 143,000 contracts.
It was pretty much the same price pattern in silver...except the engineered sell-off was far more intense. Silver's low price tick [$27.51 spot] came at the same time as gold's...and the silver price recovered about 20 cents going into the electronic close. Silver closed the day at $27.72 spot...down 46 cents from Monday. Net volume was pretty high at 37,000 contracts, more or less.
The dollar index traded in a narrow 10 basis point range of 80.60 for a goodly portion of Tuesday. That lasted until shortly before 9:00 a.m. in New York...and then away it went to the upside until about 3:20 p.m. Eastern time where it traded sideways into the close. The dollar index closed up about 65 basis points.
The gold stocks started off in positive territory...and then got sold off...but recovered back to unchanged just before lunch in New York. It was all down hill from there. The HUI got smacked for another 3.83%.
The silver stocks really got crucified again...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index took it on the chin for another 5.95%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 1 gold and 123 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. The big short/issuer was Merrill with 113 contracts...and the short/stoppers were a mixed bag. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday. Ted Butler and I were discussing the big 1.6 million ounce surprise deposit in SLV on Monday...and Ted figured it probably had something to do with covering a short position in SLV shares. We'll know more when the new report is posted over at shortsqueeze.com a week from today. The U.S. Mint had a sales report worthy of the name yesterday. The sold 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 150,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 34,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,135,000 silver eagles. It was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. They reported receiving 1,526,942 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 305,421 ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that action is here. German gold analyst Dimitri Speck was kind enough to send me several of his excellent charts...and I'm more than happy to post them here. I'll post the gold charts today...and the silver charts tomorrow. The first chart shows the "Intraday Price Movements" in gold over about eighteen years. The high at the London open...and the low at the London p.m. gold fix...are the most prominent features.
(Click on image to enlarge) The second chart shows the intraday price movements for the first quarter of 2012...and there are subtle differences, but the overall price pattern is the same...and only the times of the highs and lows have shifted.
(Click on image to enlarge) And lastly, here's the chart for 2011 on its own...the same, but slightly different once again. The negative price bias in London really stands out in this chart.
(Click on image to enlarge) I have a lot of stories again today...and I hope you have time to read through most of them You have to ask yourself why the precious metals are getting trashed in the face of one of the biggest financial crisis of our lifetimes. Soros Ramps Up Gold ETF Holdings. Gold Slides to New 2012 Low: Buying Opportunity or Bull Market Breakdown? Central banks aim to redistribute gold and push it way up. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeThe "London Whale" Swamps JPMorganBloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle reports on Jamie Dimon's disclosure of JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss, how regulations may have forced his hand in revealing the loss and that there may be further losses yet to come. This 1:36 minute video was posted over at the bloomberg.com website on Monday...and Casey Research's own David Galland sent it around to everyone yesterday morning. It's a must watch for sure...and the link is here.  JPM Losses already $3-4 bln; Europe's Core Emergency Ongoing bank runs: Greece to Re-default: Eric SprottMy friend Aaron Krowne over at ml-implode-explode.com reported on the highlights of Eric Sprott's speech at the New York 2012 Hard Assets Conference that's going on now. It's a short must read...and the link is here.  Dodd-Frank Swaps Legislation Delayed After JPMorgan Trade LossesU.S. House lawmakers, acting after JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) announced $2 billion in derivatives trading losses, delayed a committee vote on legislation easing Dodd- Frank Act swaps rules. The U.S. House Agriculture Committee postponed a May 17 committee meeting to vote on the measures, which would limit the international reach of the 2010 regulatory-overhaul law's swaps regulations and allow more derivatives trading to occur in federally insured banks. "As always, Washington has a tendency to overreact. While the news of JPMorgan's trading loss is unfortunate, the bipartisan legislation the committee was scheduled to consider is unrelated to the cause of the trading loss," Representative Frank D. Lucas, an Oklahoma Republican and chairman of the committee, said in a statement. "However, this committee will take the time to gather all relevant information before we proceed to ensure there are no unintended consequences of the legislation that would encourage recklessness in our financial institutions," Lucas said. This Bloomberg story from yesterday is courtesy of Australian reader Wesley Legrand...and the link is here.  Accidentally Released - and Incredibly Embarrassing - Documents Show How Goldman et al Engaged in 'Naked Short Selling'It doesn't happen often, but sometimes God smiles on us. Last week, he smiled on investigative reporters everywhere, when the lawyers for Goldman, Sachs slipped on one whopper of a legal banana peel, inadvertently delivering some of the bank's darker secrets into the hands of the public. The lawyers for Goldman and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch have been involved in a legal battle for some time – primarily with the retail giant Overstock.com, but also with Rolling Stone, the Economist, Bloomberg, and the New York Times. The banks have been fighting us to keep sealed certain documents that surfaced in the discovery process of an ultimately unsuccessful lawsuit filed by Overstock against the banks. Last week, in response to an Overstock.com motion to unseal certain documents, the banks' lawyers, apparently accidentally, filed an unredacted version of Overstock's motion as an exhibit in their declaration of opposition to that motion. In doing so, they inadvertently entered into the public record a sort of greatest-hits selection of the very material they've been fighting for years to keep sealed. This Matt Taibbi blog was posted over at the Rolling Stone website yesterday afternoon. It's a long, but very interesting read...and I'm sure this issue isn't going away. I thank Roy Stephens for sending me this...and the link is here.  Foreigners Boost Buys of Long-Term U.S. Securities: TreasuryForeigners increased purchases of long-dated U.S. securities, including government bonds, in March, the U.S. Treasury said on Tuesday, but lightened up on short-term assets such as bills. Overseas investors bought a net $36.19 billion in long-term assets in March, above February's inflow of $10.14 billion. They increased Treasury holdings by $20.47 billion after buying a net $15.35 billion the prior month. China, the largest foreign U.S. creditor increased its Treasury holdings to $1.170 trillion from a downwardly adjusted total of $1.155 trillion in February. Brazil increased its holdings by $9 billion to $237.4 billion. This story from yesterday's New York Times was posted on their website yesterday morning...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.  Homebuilder Confidence Rises To 5 Year High As Actual Sales Remain Near All Time LowsAmerica may not sell many new homes (read - sales are near or at all time lows), but that does not prevent homebuilders from having a dream, or in this case confidence that soon, soon, SOON, things will finally improve. Sure enough, in May the NAHB homebuilder confidence soared to 29, from 24, on expectations of a 26 print. Of course, these numbers are completely meaningless, and only serve to get the algos ramping momentum in an upward direction. In the meantime, the reality of actual sales, can be seen on the chart below. These two paragraphs comprised the entire zerohedge.com article yesterday...but the graph mentioned is well worth looking at...and the link is here. I thank Phil Barlett for his second contribution in a row.  Scottish pensions crisis: Scots born today 'will retire at 77'Scots infants will be forced to work until they are 77 years old before they become eligible for a state pension, according to a new report that paints a grim picture of aged toil. The age at which the public becomes eligible for a state pension is set to rise to 77 for today's children, with the following generation likely to work until they are 85. As the UK government announced in the Queen's Speech that the state pension age will now be linked to how long the average person lives, and will rise to 67 in 2028, the new study predicts it will go up again to 68 by 2031, adding an extra year of work for those aged 48 or younger. This story showed up over at the scotsman.com website yesterday...and I thank Andrew Holland for sending it along. The link is here.  New Elections in June Markets Fall after Greek Talks CollapseIt was the final act in the tragedy surrounding the attempts to form a Greek government -- and it had a dramatic ending. Greece will hold a new election in June after politicians failed to form a government on Tuesday, nine days after a vote that produced a stalemate. After a third day of failed talks with political leaders, a spokesman for President Karolos Papoulias said the process of seeking a compromise had failed and a new vote must be held. Elections rules suggest it will be in mid-June, possibly June 17. A caretaker government is to be formed on Wednesday to lead the country until the new vote can be held. This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for sending it along. The link is here.  Jim Puplava: Keeping the Faith: Holding Onto Your Gold Stocks When Your Emotions Tell You To Sell Posted: 15 May 2012 08:58 PM PDT  This 50-minute audio commentary was posted over at the financialsense.com website on Saturday...and if you have the time, it's worth the listen. I thank reader Howard Brown for sending it along...and the link is here. |
| Soros Ramps Up Gold ETF Holdings Posted: 15 May 2012 08:58 PM PDT  Soros Fund Management picked up a new stake in J.P. Morgan Chase in the first quarter, sold out of Google and nearly quadrupled exposure to the SPDR Gold Trust, a quarterly portfolio disclosure shows. This very short story was posted over in Barron's late yesterday afternoon...and the link is here. |
| Miners will need $3,000 gold price to be profitable, WGC head says Posted: 15 May 2012 08:58 PM PDT  Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable, World Gold Council chief executive Aram Shishmanian said on Monday. Miners currently needed a gold price of $1,300 to survive, Shishmanian said, but faced steep rises in mining costs, along with the cost of dividends and host nation taxes. "If this continues for the next five years the gold price needs to be at least $3,000 just to stay in the business," he said. However, he was optimistic sustained demand would drive prices higher over the long term. |
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