saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- No Reason To Think Apple Has Reached A Top
- Gold Stock Accumulation Tactics
- Which PM would you prefer in the next up?
- Charlie Munger Versus Gold, History And Himself
- GEAB N°65 est disponible! Crise systémique globale / Second semestre 20012 – Convergence de quatre facteurs explosifs : Banques-Bourses-Retraites-Dettes
- 5 Reasons To Buy New Gold
- Valuation + Monetary Policy = Bullish Stance On Japanese Equities
- Argonaut Gold Announces First Quarter 2012 Revenue of $24.4 Million and Net Income of $7.3 Million
- Gold Losing Battle Versus U.S. Dollar in 2012
- Mining Cost Escalation – Impact?
- Political and Economic Factors Bode Well for Gold
- $1522 “Next Target for Gold”, But Dealers in Asia See “Sudden Surge” in Physical Bullion Demand
- $1,522 ‘Next Target for Gold,’ but Asia Sees Demand Surge
- Precious Metals Rise on Q1 Euro-zone GDP Data
- Three Reasons Silver Prices Will Rally
- Safeguarding Your Precious Metals
- A shift in Indian gold buying patterns?
- Bundesbank Confirms Gold Held by FED & Others
- Putting Faith in Holding Physical Metals: Eric Sprott
- Sell in May and Go Away
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 15 2012
- SRSrocco: 2011 Complete Cost For Mining Silver
- Is Fear of Deflation Sapping Gold and Silver?
- AltInvestors: Debt Time Ticking Bomb
- Forensic Examination of the Gold Carry Trade
- DTS: Open Letter to “Long Term” Silver “Bulls”
| No Reason To Think Apple Has Reached A Top Posted: 15 May 2012 04:34 AM PDT By Jaimini Desai: Apple's (AAPL) price has recently softened, and many are now saying that the stock has topped. In this article, I wanted to compare Apple to two previous parabolic ascents - silver in 2011 and the Nasdaq in 2000. I will be using ETFs, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series1 (QQQ). Although each of these instances came in unique market circumstances with their own fundamentals driving the move higher, there certainly are commonalities in the emotional trajectory of investors. In writing this article, I studied many of these climax moves and was amazed at the similar paths, the price path up and down. Originally, I wanted to compare Apple to all of these bull market climaxes, however it quickly became redundant and I decided to focus on these two, recent examples. I chose silver, specifically because it is the most recent example of a climax top, and the Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Stock Accumulation Tactics Posted: 15 May 2012 03:51 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Which PM would you prefer in the next up? Posted: 15 May 2012 03:48 AM PDT Next run up is going to be a sight to see. Which PM would you prefer for the next leg up? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Charlie Munger Versus Gold, History And Himself Posted: 15 May 2012 03:31 AM PDT Andrew Hepburn writing for Business Insider begins: "It's tough being Charlie Munger. You make an outlandish statement about gold investors and then a little thing called history comes back to bite you. Prior to the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, Vice-Chairman Munger was asked in a CNBC interview about the merits of investing in gold. He replied: ``I think civilized people don't buy gold, they invest in productive businesses." This wasn't the first time Munger has lashed out at the yellow metal. In 2010, appearing at the University of Michigan, he stated: I don't have the slightest interest in gold. I like working on understanding what works and what doesn't in human systems. To me that is my…that's not optional…that's a moral obligation. If you're capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. I don't see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works you're a jerk." – Andrew Hepburn's look at the Omaha Duo continues at the link below and many will consider it worthy of sharing.Below is our chart to go along with Hepburn's article and associated video. Source: Business Insider | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 15 May 2012 03:26 AM PDT - Communiqué public GEAB N°65 (15 mai 2012) -  En attendant que l'Euroland se dote, d'ici la fin 2012, d'un projet politique, économique et social commun de moyen et long termes, suite notamment à l'élection du nouveau président français François Hollande, anticipée depuis de nombreux mois par LEAP/E2020, les opérateurs resteront prisonniers des réflexes de court terme liés aux soubresauts politiques grecs, aux incertitudes sur la gouvernance de l'Euroland et aux risques sur les dettes publiques. Parallèlement, aux Etats-Unis, la dissipation de l'illusion d'une reprise (1) cumulée au renouveau d'inquiétudes sur l'état de santé du secteur financier américain (dont JPMorgan vient d'illustrer la fragilité) et au grand retour du problème de l'endettement du pays conduisent les acteurs économiques et financiers à envisager un avenir de plus en plus inquiétant (2). Au Royaume-Uni, le retour en récession du pays se conjugue à l'échec de maîtrise des déficits et à la montée d'une colère populaire face à une austérité qui n'en est pourtant qu'à ses débuts (3). Au Japon, l'atonie économique et l'affaiblissement des exportations dans un contexte de récession mondiale (4) font ressortir le spectre de l'endettement excessif du pays. Dans ce contexte, selon LEAP/E2020, le second semestre 2012 va être le moment privilégié de la convergence de quatre facteurs explosifs pour les économies occidentales: banques, bourses, retraites et dettes. Pour les opérateurs économiques, financiers ou politiques comme pour les simples ménages, cette convergence va faire peser des risques majeurs sur l'état de leurs finances comme sur leur aptitude à faire face aux défis à venir. Dans ce GEAB N°65, notre équipe développe donc ses anticipations concernant ces quatre facteurs explosifs du second semestre 2012 ainsi que les recommandations pour en minimiser les conséquences négatives. Par ailleurs, LEAP/E2020 présente sa nouvelle anticipation sur les conséquences de la crise systémique globale en matière de langues internationales (au niveau mondial et en Europe) à l'horizon 2030 afin d'aider parents et enfants, ainsi que les institutions pédagogiques, à faire les bons choix d'apprentissage linguistique dès aujourd'hui. Dans ce communiqué public du GEAB N°65, notre équipe a choisi de présenter le facteur explosif correspondant aux dettes publiques et privées.  Dettes : dettes publiques difficilement maîtrisables et dettes privées destructrices… les créanciers s'approchent douloureusement de l'heure des comptes et les peuples d'une explosion de colère LEAP/E2020 l'a annoncé dès 2008 et répété depuis à de nombreuses reprises. Il y avait environ 30 000 milliards USD d'actifs-fantômes dans le système financier mondial. Il en reste environ 15 000 milliards USD qui vont pour l'essentiel s'envoler d'ici la fin 2012. La bonne nouvelle c'est qu'à partir de ce moment-là, on pourra sérieusement envisager de reconstruire un système financier mondial sain. La mauvaise nouvelle, c'est que c'est au cours des trimestres à venir que ces 15 000 milliards USD vont s'envoler en fumée. Cela implique bien entendu, comme nous l'avons évoqué précédemment, la faillite (et/ou le sauvetage par les Etats) de 10% à 20% des banques occidentales. Et cette fois-ci, à la différence de 2008/2009, les actionnaires en seront les premières victimes (y compris aux Etats-Unis), quelle que soit la séniorité de leurs droits (5). Seuls les actionnaires possédant un poids géopolitique important seront traités avec égard (fonds souverain, Etats amis, …). En matière de dettes privées, les ménages vont pour l'essentiel, notamment aux Etats-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, devoir faire face seuls aux conséquences des hausses de taux et d'insolvabilité induites qui vont les toucher. Pris dans la nasse de l'austérité et de la récession, les Etats occidentaux n'ont plus les moyens de porter secours aux classes moyennes tant que la croissance n'a pas repris un tant soit peu. Et hélas, cela ne sera pas le cas d'ici la fin 2012. On voit d'ailleurs actuellement aux Etats-Unis la question de la dette étudiante est en train de se transformer en « subprime bis » (6). Hausse de taux du fait de la fin d'une politique de bonification par l'Etat fédéral et paralysie politique à Washington sur fond de tentatives de maîtrise du déficit fédéral sont en train de créer une situation désastreuse pour des millions de jeunes Américains et leurs parents. En Europe, le Royaume-Uni a déjà décidé de laisser sa classe moyenne faire face seule à son endettement record. Cela revient à la faire chuter dans la classe défavorisée. Les prochains mois vont voir une nouvelle confrontation brutale entre cette classe moyenne britannique et ses dirigeants appartenant presque tous à l'upper-class. Sur le continent, via les votes de rejet des dirigeants adeptes de l'austérité comme seule et unique solution à la crise de l'endettement public, les peuples ont ouvert une confrontation démocratique majeure avec les élites en place depuis près d'une vingtaine d'année, et au service des créanciers. La tentative qu'incarne le nouveau président français, François Hollande, d'ouvrir une voie moyenne entre austérité et relance keynésienne qui toutes deux ont échoué ou sont impossibles politiquement ou budgétairement, va aboutir (car elle est la seule politiquement et budgétairement viable désormais (7)) mais pas avant la fin de 2012 (8). Entre temps, soubresauts politiques comme en Grèce et négociations complexes au sein de l'Euroland vont dominer l'agenda, rendant de plus en plus nerveux les créanciers et leur émanation, les marchés (9). Et cette nervosité des marchés est accrue par la conscience de l'infinie fragilité des institutions financières de Wall Street et la City face au risque de non-paiement des créances : dettes publiques ou privées. Ce sont quasiment les derniers pans de l'actif de leur bilan dont ils espèrent encore pouvoir récupérer une valeur significative.  Dès la fin de l'été 2012, le retour du thème de l'endettement ingérable des Etats-Unis, lié aux réductions budgétaires automatiques imposées en cas de non-accord du Congrès sur la réduction de l'endettement, va déclencher un « Taxmageddon (10) » aux USA. On assistera ainsi au remake du tandem détonateur-bombe que les dettes européennes et américaine ont déjà joué à l'été 2011, mais cette fois-ci dans une version beaucoup plus violente. En effet, si les craintes de voir l'Euro et l'Euroland exploser ont disparu (11), elles seront remplacées par un danger beaucoup plus effrayant pour les marchés : la monétisation massive et brutale de la dette US (12). Cette situation se présentera en plus aux Etats-Unis dans un contexte de paralysie politique complète (13), avec un Congrès qui sera morcelé par l'émergence des factions radicales chez les Républicains (« Tea-Party ») comme chez les Démocrates (« Occupy ») (14). ---------- Notes: (1) Reprise tellement illusoire qu'elle suscite un retour aux pratiques des « subprimes ». Et même le prix du lait, indicateur fiable des ralentissements économiques, pointe vers la récession. Sources : CNBC, 26/04/2012 ; New York Times, 10/04/2012 (2) A ce sujet, rappelons que désormais le gouvernement US et la Fed doivent créer 2,5$ de dette pour générer 1$ de croissance. C'est le problème que rencontre toute économie dont l'endettement devient excessif. C'est le genre de « détail » que les keynésiens comme Krugman oublie de préciser quand ils clament à tort et à travers que les politiques d'austérité sont aberrantes. Comme pour toute approche de bon sens, qui prend en compte le monde réel et non pas les théories économiques, il faut un équilibre entre réduction de l'endettement et soutien à la croissance. C'est d'ailleurs le chemin que va prendre l'Euroland dès cet été ; alors que les Etats-Unis continuent à nier la nécessité de traiter leur endettement incontrôlé. (3) Source : WallStreetJournal, 13/05/2012 (4) Sources : TimesofIndia, 11/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 06/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 28/03/2012 ; Washington Post, 11/05/2012 ; USAToday, 13/04/2012 ; CNBC, 06/04/2012 (5) Source : MarketWatch, 10/05/2012 (6) Source : CERF, 21/04/2012 (7) Depuis Février 2012 et le GEAB N°62, notre équipe a largement détaillé son anticipation sur l'évolution de l'Euroland 2012-2016 et les événements en cours nous confirment dans notre analyse (si vous souhaitez avoir une présentation « live » des perspectives de l'Euroland et de l'Europe, vous pouvez aussi regarder le discours de Franck Biancheri prononcé en Anglais le 2 Mai dernier devant les 1 000 délégués du principal réseau étudiant européen AEGEE-EUROPE). D'ici l'été, après les élections législatives françaises de Juin 2012, un accord à six sur l'équilibre austérité/croissance sera trouvé (France/Allemagne/Italie/Pays-Bas/Belgique/Espagne) qui sera porté par l'Euroland+ (Euroland plus les autres pays impliqués dans le MES). (8) En Allemagne aussi les voix se font de plus en plus nombreuses et fortes pour exiger un chemin plus équilibré car le coût social du succès économique allemand commence à être lourdement ressenti par une partie croissante de la population. Source : Spiegel, 04/05/2012 (9) Par exemple, le fonds souverain norvégien a décidé de se débarrasser de ses actifs en dette souveraine des pays fragiles de l'Euroland. Pourtant, LEAP/E2020 rappelle qu'en ce qui concerne l'Euro, il n'y a pas d'inquiétudes à avoir et bien au contraire, d'ici fin 2012 c'est le Dollar US qui constituera le choc à la baisse. Sources : LeFigaro, 05/05/2012 ; MarketWatch, 09/05/2012 (10) Néologisme créé à partir des deux mots « Tax » et « Armageddon ». Il désigne le chaos fiscal qui va régner fin 2012 au moment où vont s'imposer des choix de coupes budgétaires massives dans le budget fédéral US. Depuis près d'un an, les Etats-Unis et la presse financière internationale a choisi d'ignorer soigneusement ce problème majeur. Il ne sera que plus difficile à gérer quand il s'imposera à nouveau dans le paysage. (11) Comme nous le soulignions en Janvier dernier, c'est une des grandes différences entre la crise grecque actuelle et l'hystérie anti-Euro de 2010/2011. S'il est théoriquement possible aujourd'hui d'envisager une sortie de la Grèce hors de l'Euroland sans remise en cause de la monnaie unique, il n'en reste pas moins que dans la réalité cette sortie est impossible. C'est d'ailleurs l'un des problèmes auxquels se trouvent confrontés les dirigeants grecs. Nous soulignons ce point pour rappeler que sur ce sujet les économistes, qui vivent dans des mondes théoriques sans rapport en général avec la réalité, se sont trompés sans arrêt depuis des mois. Les chantres de la fin de l'Euro, de Krugman à Roubini, ont en la matière autant de crédibilité que les haruspices romains qui lisaient l'avenir dans les entrailles des animaux. Pour revenir à la Grèce, LEAP/E2020 estime que tant que les dirigeants des deux principaux partis de gouvernement ( PASOK et ND ) appartiendront aux générations qui ont conduit le pays dans cette crise historique, il n'y aura pas d'issue politique viable faute de confiance populaire... Il appartient donc aux dirigeants de l'Euroland, et en particulier à Angela Merkel via le PPE et François Hollande via le PSE, de faire pression sur leurs « partis-frères » respectifs pour que d'ici Septembre 2012 et de prochaines élections, l'ensemble des dirigeants de ces deux formations soit renouvelé au profit de responsables de moins de 45 ans. Le succès actuel du parti d'extrême-gauche Syrisa tient autant à ses idées qu'à l'âge de son chef : 38 ans. Un processus de ce type a bien été utilisé pour parvenir à faire lâcher le pouvoir à un Silvio Berlusconi en bout de course. Les moyens existent donc. Et en la matière, il s'agit de permettre au peuple grec de retrouver confiance dans des dirigeants neufs, de droite ou de gauche, sans exclusive. Pour bien comprendre pourquoi une sortie de la Grèce hors de la zone Euro est en pratique infaisable, un seul exemple suffira : si vous étiez grec, et qu'on vous propose d'échanger vos Euros contre des nouveaux Drachmes, que feriez-vous ? No comment ! (12) Même l'ancien Secrétaire US au Trésor Robert Rubin joint désormais sa voix à ceux qui avertissent de ce grave risque à court terme. Source : Reuters, 10/05/2012 (13) Que ce soit Barack Obama ou Mitt Romney qui ait gagné l'élection présidentielle. (14) Voir GEAB N°60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 15 May 2012 03:19 AM PDT By Markus Aarnio: New Gold (NGD) is an intermediate gold mining company. The company has a portfolio of three producing assets and three significant development projects. New Gold's most immediate development project, New Afton, is scheduled to begin production in mid-2012, and together with the Mesquite Mine in the United States, the Cerro San Pedro Mine in Mexico and Peak Gold Mines in Australia, the company is forecasting between 405,000 and 445,000 ounces of gold production in 2012. In addition, New Gold owns 30% of the world-class El Morro project located in Chile and 100% of the exciting Blackwater project in Canada. Click to enlarge. I see at least 5 reasons to buy the stock currently. 1. Strong financials and outlook for second half of 2012 The company forecasts gold production of 405,000 to 445,000 ounces at a total cash cost per ounce sold, net of by-product sales, of $410 to $430 per Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valuation + Monetary Policy = Bullish Stance On Japanese Equities Posted: 15 May 2012 03:16 AM PDT By Jeremy Schwartz: Japanese Equity Valuations are Historically Low & Quantitative Easing Could Lead to Further Yen-Weakening vs. the U.S. Dollar Co-authored by Christopher Gannatti, Research Analyst, WisdomTree Expansionary Monetary Policy-Possibly a 2012 Japanese Equity Market Catalyst On February 14, 2012, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a statement that it would target a 1% inflation rate. Compared to the last 20-years when powerful deflationary[1] forces gripped the Japanese economy, a 1% inflation target is a large commitment. At its latest meeting on April 27th, the BOJ took further steps to easing monetary pressures by raising the maximum outstanding amount of financial assets it can purchase through its asset purchase program, specifically through an additional 10 trillion yen in Japanese Government Bonds, 200 billion yen exchange traded funds, and 100 billion yen in equity issued by real estate investment corporations[2]. While true that the majority of the program's capacity is directed at the Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Argonaut Gold Announces First Quarter 2012 Revenue of $24.4 Million and Net Income of $7.3 Million Posted: 15 May 2012 02:57 AM PDT TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – May 15, 2012) - Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) (the "Company", "Argonaut Gold" or "Argonaut") is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012. All dollar amounts are expressed in United States dollars unless otherwise specified. FIRST QUARTER 2012 & RECENT HIGHLIGHTS Financials
Gold Production and Cost
Operational Improvements:
Exploration:
This press release should be read in conjunction with the Company's unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012 and associated management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") which are available from the Company's website, www.argonautgoldinc.com, in the "Investors" section under "Financial Filings", and under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Financial Results – First Quarter 2012 During the first quarter of 2012, revenue was $24.4 million from gold sales of 14,498 ounces compared to $25.7 million from sales of 18,461 ounces in the first quarter of 2011. Cost of sales was $12.1 million for the quarter compared to $14.6 million for the first quarter of 2011. Cash cost per gold ounce sold was $639 compared to $590 in the same period of 2011. (Cash cost per gold ounce sold is a non-IFRS measure, see note below). During the first quarter of 2012, gross profit was $12.3 million compared to $11.0 million gross profit in the first quarter of 2011. During the quarter, profit from operations was $9.7 million compared to $9.1 million for 2011. Net income for the quarter was $7.3 million or $0.08 per basic share versus $5.9 million or $0.07 per basic share in 2011. Cash on hand decreased from $34.9 million at December 31, 2011 to $17.8 million. Capital expenditures in the first quarter were $12.3 million primarily as a result of expanding operations at the El Castillo and La Colorada mines. The 2012 capital expenditures and exploration programs for Argonaut Gold includes $38-$48 million at El Castillo, La Colorada and San Antonio which includes pre-production stripping at La Colorada of approximately $6 million. Cash flow from operations before changes in non-cash operating working capital and other items was $8.1 million during the quarter, compared to $9.3 million for the first quarter of 2011. The cash flow used in operating activities in the quarter was $5.3 million after taking into account the buildup of inventory and other working capital. CEO Commentary Mr. Pete Dougherty, Argonaut's President and CEO states: "The Company continues to benefit from the gold production and cash generation at El Castillo, which has enabled us to fund construction of the La Colorada mine. The developments at La Colorada since acquiring the project have been quite impressive. The mine has been put back into production less than one year after finalizing the acquisition. The startup of gold production at La Colorada will provide growth to the Company's production profile in 2012 through reprocessing the previous run-of-mine material. Expansion of the processing facility continues with final construction taking place on the desorption and recovery plant. 2012 is an important step in growth for the La Colorada mine. While much has been accomplished, there is much more work to be done with important milestones expected to be achieved in the second and third quarters."
El Castillo Summary of Production Results Total tonnes mined increased by 25% for the first quarter 2012 over first quarter 2011. The total ounces loaded to the pad were 35,283 in the first quarter of 2012; this represents a 25% increase over the first quarter of 2011. The strip ratio of waste to ore was 0.96 compared to a strip ratio of 0.88 in the first quarter of 2011. 2012 guidance at El Castillo is for 75,000 to 80,000 ounces at a cash cost between $625 and $650 per gold ounce.
La Colorada Summary of Production Results Non-commercial mining at La Colorada began in the first quarter of 2012. Initially, production generated at La Colorada will come from reprocessing of run-of-mine ("ROM") material on site. 2012 guidance at La Colorada is for production of 13,000-17,000 ounces at a cash cost between $625 and $650 per ounce. There was no inventory at La Colorada prior to the first quarter of 2012. Looking Forward – 2012: The Company plans on investing between $38 million and $48 million on capital expenditures and exploration initiatives in 2012. These expenditures are expected to include the following:
Non-IFRS Measures The Company included the non-IFRS measure "Cash cost per gold ounce sold" in this press release to supplement its financial statements which are presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS"). Cash cost per gold ounce sold is equal to cost of sales less silver sales divided by gold ounces sold. The Company believes that this measure provides investors with an improved ability to evaluate the performance of the Company. Non-IFRS measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under IFRS. Therefore they may not be comparable to similar measures employed by other companies. The data is intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Please see the MD&A for full disclosure on non-IFRS measures. Technical Information and Mineral Properties Reports The technical information contained in this document has been prepared under supervision of, and reviewed and approved by Mr. Thomas H. Burkhart, Argonaut's Vice President of Exploration, and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 ("NI 43-101″). For further information on the Company's properties please see the reports as listed below on the Company's website or on www.sedar.com:
About Argonaut Gold Argonaut is a Canadian gold company engaged in exploration, mine development and production activities. Its primary assets are the production-stage El Castillo Mine in the State of Durango, Mexico, the La Colorada Mine in the State of Sonora, Mexico, the advanced exploration stage San Antonio project in the State of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and several exploration stage projects, all of which are located in Mexico. Creating Value Beyond Gold Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements This news release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Actual results may differ materially due to a number of factors. Except as required by law, Argonaut Gold Inc. assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking information contained in this news release. Contact Information
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| Gold Losing Battle Versus U.S. Dollar in 2012 Posted: 15 May 2012 02:52 AM PDT Gold bears are exuberant these days. Their mood is epitomized by a recent Bloomberg headline: "Gold Erases Year's Gain as Europe Concern Boosts Dollar" – which was then dutifully parroted by thousands of mainstream drones. The implication was clear: gold was on its way down and the dollar is on its way "up", so everyone should sell their gold. Such confidence (depending on the source) is a reflection of either serial dishonesty or extreme delusion. The dollar-shills at Bloomberg explained what was happening: …concern that Europe's debt-crisis is deepening strengthened the dollar [emphasis mine]. Let's examine that short statement. Let's totally put aside the fact that Europe's debt-crisis was caused by the economic terrorism of Wall Street bankers. Again it is clear what Bloomberg is implying: the euro is weakening and the dollar is strengthening. I've dealt with this inherently and deliberately dishonest statement by the mainstream media on multiple occasions in the past. In the past 100 years (i.e. ever since the Federal Reserve was given the responsibility of "protecting the dollar") the U.S. dollar has lost 98% of its value. That rate of collapse has increased significantly in the past 40 years (i.e. ever since Nixon eliminated the last vestige of a gold standard). The dollar is not "strengthening" – that is an outright lie. It is simply plummeting a little less slowly than the other (worthless) paper. Example: two people jump off a 100-storey building at the same time. While falling, one of the individuals climbs on top of the shoulders of the other one. Has that individual "strengthened" himself? Obviously not. He will simply go "splat" a millisecond later. (Legitimate) gold commentators have explained this basic fact again and again, yet had little success in penetrating the media's brainwashing. So let me try a personal anecdote which might be more successful in reaching the gastrically-inclined mind of the average North American. Having an unusually hot May day on the West Coast yesterday, I decided to opt for a cool submarine sandwich for dinner, and headed to Subway for the first time in several years. I ordered my favorite foot-long sandwich, and had it prepared exactly as I had done when I used to purchase sub's on a more regular basis. However where my memory clashed with reality was when I went to pay for my sub. The cashier asked for $8.50. I politely informed her that she had quoted the wrong price – and pointed to the $4.50 posted on the wall, the price I used to pay for my favorite sub. She politely corrected me that I had (carelessly) quoted the price for a six-inch sandwich, not the foot-long. I had yet another experience with 21st century "sticker shock": in just a few years my paper had (literally) lost half its value. Then there is gold. A hundred years ago, a man could purchase a fine suit for an ounce of gold. Two thousand years ago, stylish Romans could purchase the finest toga for an ounce of gold. And today, despite the fact that gold has been pushed more than 20% below its recent high, one could still buy a more-than-adequate suit for the $1550 currently quoted for an ounce of gold. Yet for 100 years, as the U.S. dollar has been relentlessly losing virtually all of its value, while gold has virtually perfectly preserved its entire value we have been hearing a consistent message from the mainstream media: the U.S. dollar is a "safe haven", while gold is a "barbarous relic". How can the media tell us that the bankers' paper, which has already lost almost all of its value is "safe"? How can the media tell us that gold, which perfectly protects the wealth of the holder century after century is "too risky"? The media lies. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mining Cost Escalation – Impact? Posted: 15 May 2012 02:20 AM PDT Some of the issues facing not just gold miners, but miners generally, going forward, will impact the cost structure and the share prices of those companies from what they otherwise might be. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Political and Economic Factors Bode Well for Gold Posted: 15 May 2012 01:38 AM PDT
Based on the May 11th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis. So far, 10 European political leaders out of 17 have been ousted out of office like a falling dominos in a little more than a year. The issue that has angered voters other than unemployment is austerity. We know from personal finances that when we overspend, we must cut back, pay our debts and rebuild our savings. That's the prudent thing to do and that's what the austerity school preaches. But what happens if the financial hole is so deep that there is no way to climb out by reasonable cutting back and saving? That's when you declare bankruptcy and your creditors share the pain. The laws of capitalism decree that if you don't assess risk correctly, you lose money. The conclusion is that austerity has to come with a mechanism for default, which is not the case in Europe. The growth club, represented eloquently by New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, believe that borrowing and spending will spur growth and consumption and that austerity will begat only more austerity. In other words, the European Central Bank (ECB) should print money and then Greece and the others can service their debts with cheaper euros due to the inflation caused by money printing. Is this not a kind of default, since you are paying back your debts with devalued money? We believe that the massive printing of euros will eventually take place and please keep in mind that unlike Fed, EBC has still room to lower its main interest rate. Once markets believe that this is the likely (or even inevitable) outcome, the gold price will soar not only in terms of euros but also in terms of other currencies. The ECB recently lent money at concessionary rates to European banks in an effort to co-opt these nearly bankrupt institutions into financing the nearly bankrupt European sovereigns. They offered loans against dubious collateral, to tempt commercial lenders to play the "carry" game, namely, buying Spanish and Italian debt of varying maturities yielding up to 7% while paying a mere 1% for a three year loan. The prospect of a devastating run on banks was avoided, for now. We wonder if this is not pushing the can down the road. There are certain things that look to be almost inevitable. The eurozone is in trouble, in particular Spain, Portugal and Italy. (We don't even talk about Greece, that country is already just about bankrupt in more ways than one.) The longer this crisis will take to play out the deeper it will get with more countries caught in the net, with Belgium, France and Netherlands not far behind. The proportion of young people between the ages of 15 and 25 who are now without a job is 51 per cent in Greece and Spain, 36 per cent in Portugal and Italy and 30 per cent in Ireland. In France "only" one in five young people are out of work. History has shown over and over again that when there are deep economic problems, the monsters that lurk in dark, dank corners come out brazenly into daylight looking for victims or scapegoats. It wasn't so long ago when this is precisely what happened in Europe. This week in Greece a Neo Nazi party took 21 out of 300 seats and 7% of the popular vote – the first neo-Nazi party to enter a European assembly since the Second World War. This is enough to give us shivers. The center seems to be falling apart and the extremes of left and right are gaining power. Even Somali pirates preying on merchants ships are having a hard time due to the economic downturn. On the one hand, things couldn't be better for them. Shipping companies have reduced ship speeds through the highest-risk area to save on fuel, making the ships easier targets. But the companies have switched to relying on guards, rather than speed, for protection, which will make for shoot outs on the high seas. The math is simple. A single day at lower speeds can save $50,000 in fuel at current prices – enough to pay the guards for the entire journey. The image reminds us of Europe, a cumbersome ship overgrown with barnacles, trying to make its way in pirate-infested waters. Instead of finding a solution to the problem, and perhaps there is no simple or fast solution, European leaders keep finding stop-gap, make-do, arrangements. So, do you put on speed with the hope of creating jobs and growth and outrunning the pirates, or do you cut back and hire armed guards? So why do we focus on these political and economic factors that much? Well, we do feel that there is a need to separate short-term turmoil from the long-term fundamental picture. Markets are intrinsically emotional and prone to a sudden change of mood. Sometimes even seemingly unimportant events can spark an abrupt move, yet in the long term the fundamentals make the decisive impact. And these are indeed favorable for gold and the whole precious metals sector. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * *
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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| $1522 “Next Target for Gold”, But Dealers in Asia See “Sudden Surge” in Physical Bullion Demand Posted: 15 May 2012 01:21 AM PDT
WHOLESALE MARKET gold bullion prices dipped below $1550 an ounce for the first time since December on Tuesday – a fall of 7% since the start of this month – before regaining some ground by lunchtime in London. "The bear channel support had been at $1581," say technical analysts at Scotia Mocatta, the bullion banking division of Bank of Nova Scotia. "The next target is a full retracement to December's low of $1522 and there does not appear to be much standing in the way." "Gold bugs[are] hiding deep in their gold caves pondering why gold isn't rallying in spite of [the] sharp spike in risk-off sentiment," said NYU professor Nouriel Roubini on Monday via the medium of Twitter. Asian dealers however report a pickup in physical gold bullion demand. "At the moment supply is a bit tight for immediate delivery," one Singapore dealer tells news agency Reuters. "Refiners can't deliver immediate gold because there's a sudden surge in demand. We're seeing demand from India, Thailand and Indonesia." Silver bullion meantime dipped below $28 per ounce for the first time since January 1 on Tuesday, before bouncing slightly, while European stock markets also regained some ground after Monday's heavy losses. Commodities were broadly flat on the day, while major government bond prices eased. The president of Greece is today expected to ask politicians to agree to the formation of a technocrat government, as the stalemate following last week's election continues. The left-wing Syriza, which came second in the election and currently leads opinion polls, has indicated its opposition to the proposal. "We don't want to consent to any kind of bailout policies, even if they are implemented by non-political personalities," said Panos Skourletis, spokesman for Syriza, referring to austerity measures such as public spending cuts, agreed by Greece's previous government as part of its bailout package. Any Greek government "would have to stand by the [austerity] program," said Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg prime minister and chairman of the Eurogroup of single currency finance ministers, speaking on Monday. "If there are dramatic changes in circumstances, we wouldn't close ourselves off to a debate over extending the deadlines." "The Euro breakup story is gathering steam again," says Marchel Alexandrovich, London-based senior European economist at Jefferies International. "If Greece were to ever exit the Euro, no amount of reassuring comments will convince investors that other countries won't soon follow." Greece has meantime said it will meet €430 million in bond payments due today, Reuters reports. "It's looking alarming right now," says Luke Spajic, senior fund manager at world's largest bond fund Pimco. "The market is effectively trying to price in a disorderly exit for Greece." In contrast with Spanish bonds, yields on 10-Year German bunds sank to record lows Monday, hitting 1.43%. Germany's economy meantime grew 1.7% in the year to the first quarter of 2012 – up from 1.5% annual growth to Q4 2011 – according to provisional estimates published Tuesday. Growth in the Eurozone as a whole was flat, showing 0.0% year-on-year GDP gain in Q1 – down from 0.7% to the previous quarter – Tuesday's provisional estimates show. Germany's Federal Court of Audit is to report to the Bundestag its objections to the way the nation's gold bullion is stored, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Court is expected to ask the Bundesbank to check that gold stored abroad is still there, the WSJ adds. Over in India, "gold smuggling has increased drastically because of the increasing value of the metal," Indian customs commissioner PM Salim told Indian press Tuesday. "Most of the money used in gold smuggling is hawala money," added another customs officer, referring to transfers of wealth that occur outside traditional channels so as to avoid leaving a trail. India's government has twice this year doubled the import duty on gold bullion, as well as proposing to extend gold jewelry sale taxes. The latter measure was dropped following a three-week long protest by Indian gold jewelers. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| $1,522 ‘Next Target for Gold,’ but Asia Sees Demand Surge Posted: 14 May 2012 11:54 PM PDT Wholesale market gold bullion prices dipped below $1,550 an ounce for the first time since December on Tuesday – a fall of 7% since the start of this month – before regaining some ground by lunchtime in London. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Precious Metals Rise on Q1 Euro-zone GDP Data Posted: 14 May 2012 11:09 PM PDT Gold and silver prices are on the upswing in European trade after the preliminary set of euro-zone GDP figures showed output growth stalled in the first quarter amid expectations for a second consecutive contraction. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Three Reasons Silver Prices Will Rally Posted: 14 May 2012 10:08 PM PDT
from moneymorning.com: With the recent volatility and lows in the gold market, many investors also have been wary of silver prices. Silver on Friday closed down 0.4% to $28.87 per ounce. For the week, prices dropped 5.1%. Not the prettiest picture, but for the year silver has increased more than twice the price of gold thanks to growing confidence that the global economy will dodge another recession bullet. David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals Inc., recently said to Bloomberg News, "A greater amount of confidence in the global economy generally means higher growth and that means more silver demand. If you look out beyond the end of the year, you can still see reasons to be bullish." Why Silver Prices Will Rally Increased Demand: The global head of metals analytics at Thomas Reuters GFMS, Philip Klapwijk, has forecast silver sales to increase as end-users expand inventories that thinned at the end of 2011. A large portion of silver demand – 80% – comes from fabrication, which is expected to rise about 3% to 5% this year to roughly 900 million ounces. Also helping is China's manufacturing expansion and an increased electronics industry demand. Klapwijk also sees current monetary policy increasing investors' appetite for silver and triggering a subsequent price rise. He expects "a continuation of very loose monetary policy," he wrote in a report earlier this year. "We also see rates likely being cut in some of the emerging-market economies such asChina, India and Brazil." This means current silver market lulls are great buying opportunities since the long-term outlook remains bullish. Keep on reading @ moneymorning.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Safeguarding Your Precious Metals Posted: 14 May 2012 10:02 PM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: With the recent Eurosis-driven bout of dollar strength, hopefully many of our readers are proud owners of hard money (gold and silver). Many such folks save in quite creative places. Mattresses come to mind; caves have been in the media recently; and we see videos of wall safes with paintings hung to conceal hinges used for easy access to the obscured cache. In his book, Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, Mike Maloney says the need to find a safe place to store gold and silver is "a good problem to have, but there is no easy answer." He warns against using bank safe deposit boxes for rent. One issue with that method is that, should the Fed and the government decide to extort citizens for more capital as they did in 1933, confiscation of your safe deposit box contents is almost guaranteed. As Huertas and Silverman tell it: This was the Banking Holiday of 1933. Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A shift in Indian gold buying patterns? Posted: 14 May 2012 10:01 PM PDT
from mineweb.com: Gold ETF holdings in India have reached stratospheric numbers. Sliding close to the $2 billion mark for the first time as of April 30, Indian investors appear to be veering towards paper gold, shunning the stock markets and the purchase of physical gold with equal ease. Assets in gold electronic traded funds (ETFs) increased to Rs 103.06 billion ($1.91 billion) as of April 30, from Rs 98.86 billion as on March 31. During the one month period from March to April 2012, assets grew 3.4%. According to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India, assets under management (AUMs) under gold ETFs more than doubled from a year ago, from $815 million (Rs 44bn) reported in March 2011, showing a year on year growth of 124%. While assets in gold ETFs grew 1.9% in February this year, it was just 0.9% in March given the reduced safe haven appeal at that time. Data showed the share of gold ETFs to total AUMs rose to 2% from 1% last year. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bundesbank Confirms Gold Held by FED & Others Posted: 14 May 2012 09:52 PM PDT Gold edged up in early Asian trading to $1,560/oz. prior to renewed selling that saw the price fall and gold briefly pierced below support at $1,550/oz. prior to a slight bounce higher in early European trading. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Putting Faith in Holding Physical Metals: Eric Sprott Posted: 14 May 2012 09:43 PM PDT A Q&A with the chairman of Sprott Inc., chief excutive officer, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager for Sprott Assett Management LP and chairman of Sprott Money Ltd., on his "Call to Action" to silver producers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 14 May 2012 09:00 PM PDT He is a look at the extended "Sell in May and Go Away" cycle and the effects on markets. Data is from end of the day May 10. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12855.04 +19.98 on normal volume and a bear triple top pattern. We can see firm support at 12750 on the bottom of the trading channel. The channel top resistance is 13,250. This market should have sold-off before now on the previous double top posted in March and April, but the PPT has been busy with supports to keep it propped-up in the middle of all this European credit mayhem in Southern Europe. At this time of year, we have seen the "Sell in May and Go Away" cycle extended to as long as mid-June, which is five weeks away. Keep in mind, the powers that be want stocks up for this election year. I think mild corrections are permitted to occur but nobody wants to see a hard correction. That event we think arrives in September. For now, look for the Dow to be sideways, or slightly up tomorrow on Friday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1357.99 +3.41 with a chart similar to the Dow Jones. Both of them have mild down-turning momentum (pausing) but this 500 index has more volatility. The trading channel resembles the Dow's but we see four higher moves above the channel on buying overshoots and one recent one on the downside this week. That is just trading volatility. The trading channel is 1350 support and 1400 resistance. Since we closed up today, eight points above 1350 support, I forecast something similar for the close tomorrow, staying above 1350. If some good earnings news is posted tomorrow, we could rise to the 50-day moving average at 1375.25. Most earnings left to report are in the retail sector, which has been struggling. We have to wait and see. Spain is the larger dire problem but that can linger for weeks. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 618.05 +1.92 on normal volume and selling momentum. This index is channeled also with a top resistance at 640 and support at 620. There is a triple top and a sloppy triple bottom with today's close barely hanging onto the 620 lower support. Tiny signals in the S&P 100 are telling us there is more weakness than you see in the Dow and/or the S&P 500. This is a good index to watch for trend, as a detailed chart check shows-hints at more selling. Since tomorrow is Friday, we would expect a flat day with a close above 620 plus, or minus one point or two. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2616.24 -5.11 on 120% of normal volume with some serious selling this month including a big gap down. The gap has hard upper resistance at 2665.81 on the 50 day average. This index is getting weak in the knees and with three days of higher volume, it could easily break-down and sell with more power. Cisco's warning today was a big event, and with a poor, showing today, Friday might sell down to 2600 support first, with 2590 next. The close remains on the bottom edge of the bearish flag trading channel. A break under 2600 would be negative, especially on a Friday. Price is under two moving averages with the 200-day average further below at 2500-2479.66. I would expect a weak Friday trading session with a minimum of -16.00 points to a 2600 supported closing. It might even sell more as those two gaps show volatility and uncertainty. 30-Year Bonds: Closing at 144.34 +0.24 as bonds stay higher on very weak European credit and an indecisive stock market. Goldman Sachs sold Spanish bonds and bought Italian bonds in a spread trade. It appears they think Italy is a better risk, but both are in big trouble. The bad news has not hit Italy as yet but the forthcoming Moody's downgrade of 100 European banks could open Pandora's Bank Box with a big smash. Support is 144.00 and resistance is 144.50. Higher top end resistance is 145.50. Expect the 30's to rise even more to 145.00-145.50 resistance and stay near there until the USA stock market corrects and then begins to buy again in the next up cycle. At that point bonds get toppy and sell back, probably in the last half of June; next month. For now the bonds should rise in price. XAU: Closing at 153.42 -0.04 after finding new lower support on index 150.00 per our forecast. The momentum signals are slow and are still showing negative. However, the most important metal to shares ratio hit the basement and has turned-up with a tiny but visible move. The 50% retracement number for the entire past twelve months would take the index back to 190 resistance. It can achieve that price in June but the 190 forecast is more liable to arrive in the first week of September. This slowness can be attributed to the very hard oversold condition in this market. Look for a flat Friday with a close on, or near 150.00. Gold: Closing at 1594.90 +3.90 and has found support at 1592.50-1596.50. Price is under all moving averages but, is moving around-near a very important support and resistance number of $1,608. Goldman Sachs predicted $1840 gold within six months. We think this is achievable and conservative. Should the gold price back-up and sell some more, it could touch hard support at $1550. We would consider that a hard oversold condition that would be followed by stronger recovery buying. Fundamentally, gold should be doing better but paper gold has been hit with the entire commodities group selling, including the most important crude oil. The gold futures chart signals more buying but we think it just goes back to $1608 and stands still there for now. Silver: Closing at 29.09 -0.13 on both precious metals and commercial usage weakness. Commercial silver users are showing some weak numbers. The commodities sector as a group has been weaker as well for several months now on slower demand from Asia, Europe and others. Silver is under all moving averages, which is negative. The 20-day average is 30.62 resistance with nearby resistance at 29.85. Support is 29.08. The way this market has been behaving, we could easily see the price slide down further to major previous support at 26.58-27.48. Friday trading should take the price lower with a close of at least -$.48 or more from the Friday open. US Dollar: Closing at 80.15 +0.08 above major support at 80.00. With the weaker Euro currency this week, the US Dollar had to go higher and was joined in a rally by the Japanese Yen. All of these currencies are weaker but measured in degrees; the dollar remains the stronger currency. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. Price had a continuation triangle rally breakout with two solid closes out of and above the pattern. New support and resistance is 80.00, but we forecast the US Dollar to rise with more buying to larger upside resistance at 82.50. There are three support and resistance prices between 80.00 and 82.50. The higher number should be the sector market high for this month of May with a chance at something higher in June or July, before a normal correction pullback. Crude Oil: Closed at 97.08 +0.66 on falling momentum but a newly rising price. Oil sold back to $95 or so and then turned around after touching that number for support. The close is under all moving averages. New hard resistance is 99.06 on the 200-day moving average. We are passed the spring refinery repairs and shutdowns. Now, these facilities are building unleaded gasoline for the summer driving season. Oil reserves are abnormally high on less recessionary demand. Unleaded gasoline prices have peaked and started down. An over-supply of natural gas has been curtailed by producers shutting some wells on too low prices. With a cooler summer in the weather forecast natural gas may not get the expected power plant demand for air conditioning some have expected, including us. Throughout the summer, crude oil prices might go much lower unless demand picks-up (unlikely). The next seriously lower oil price is $90 support, which we might see next month. For now, the trading range is 94.50 to 98.50 with 95.00 at support. CRB: Closed at 294.59 -0.24 near our forecast of 295.00. Next, with most commodities having weaker markets, expect the CRB to touch and support at 290. This is a primary support and resistance number for this entire market. The CRB needs a rising stock market, better commercial sales, more demand from Asia and India and the inflation we expect. Top analyst David Rosenberg on Bloomberg Television this morning said he does not expect any inflation for two years under current cycle conditions. New support is 290 and resistance is 295. Expect the CRB to sell and support on 290 next. -Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 15 2012 Posted: 14 May 2012 09:00 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SRSrocco: 2011 Complete Cost For Mining Silver Posted: 14 May 2012 08:57 PM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: MY BALLPARK FORMULA FOR CALCULATING COMPLETE MINING COSTS FOR SILVER Last year, I wrote an article titled THE COMPLETE COST OF MINING SILVER. In it I used a quick formula to figure what a more true cost would be for an ounce of silver than the CASH COST. This is an update of the complete cost for mining silver in 2011. Miners use the CASH COST to compare just how cheap it is to mine silver. They arrive at their CASH COST by adding all the by-product revenue against an ounce of silver. For example, if a miner has some Gold, Lead and Zinc in a ton of ore, they take the revenue received from those by-product credits and get an INSANELY LOW CASH COST. In 2011, HECLA had a CASH COST of only $1.15 an ounce for silver. To the layman they would think that they would have all this wonderful profit – but they don't. Hecla actually had TOTAL REVENUE of $477.6 million with a NET INCOME of only $151.1 million. You would think with such a low CASH COST that they would be making nearly $350-$400 million. That is why I came up with my COMPLETE COST for getting a truer figure. Before I put out the CHARTS… let me give you my DISCLAIMER. After I came out with the article last year, I had several emails telling me why my formula was incorrect. While it is true, that my COMPLETE COST is not the best way to get a accurate estimation, it is the simplest way. I like KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID — KISS. First, this is last year's formula for getting the Complete cost from HECLA's 10-K:
And this was last year's COMPLETE COST CHART for (4) primary silver miners:
I did the calculations for 2011, and this is what I found to be the COMPLETE COST PER OUNCE for mining silver at this time: Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is Fear of Deflation Sapping Gold and Silver? Posted: 14 May 2012 08:55 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AltInvestors: Debt Time Ticking Bomb Posted: 14 May 2012 08:48 PM PDT In this podcast: from altinvestorshangout: ~TVR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forensic Examination of the Gold Carry Trade Posted: 14 May 2012 08:40 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DTS: Open Letter to “Long Term” Silver “Bulls” Posted: 14 May 2012 08:37 PM PDT You want more silver? Is that what you want? Man, silver is just a hunk of metal. It's just a thing. An idol. A distraction. Silver is an analogy. And, guess what? If you really do want more, you have the ability to make better decisions. You can have more silver AND more "worthless fiat" with which to buy more. Do NOT let ANYONE tell you it's "too hard," or that "every day" is a "buying opportunity". YOU CAN DO MORE. You can BE MORE. You can rise above the mediocrity of the cult of personality. Start your own -cult- and buy or sell based on what's smart, not what the herd stampedes you into. from daytradeshow: ~TVR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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