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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


One Minute Chart of Gold - 7,501 contracts

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 04:02 PM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] By request of a reader S Roche, I am providing a one minute chart showing the enormity of the trade in gold early this morning (4-30) ...


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 03:54 PM PDT

from Gold Seek:

Take a look at this 5 minute chart and note especially the volume readings posted below each individual price bar. Look just past the 5:00 AM Pacific time hour and you will see the enormous volume spike accompanying the sharp downdraft that occurred in the gold price dropping it $15 in the course of minutes. Analysts are still grasping for an explanation.

The most common is that it was another one of those "fat fingered trades". Have you ever noticed how many fat fingered human beings apparently camp out in the trading community. Last time I checked a skinny finger could hit an "enter" key just as easily as a fat finger could.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com


FOOL: Krugman Claims FED Policy Doesn't Effect Food & Oil Prices, The Dollar Hasn't Gone Down

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 03:31 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: You gotta love Krugman. Allow me to summarize: The Fed is a benevolent public servant and the Bernank has too little power to do any real damage.]

from FederalJacktube6:


In The News Today

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 03:11 PM PDT

The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later, is the people versus the banks. – Lord Acton [1834-1902]

 

Gold has Bottomed, Alf Fields

Elliott Wave Gold Update: In the article "What Happened to Gold" dated 1 March 2012, the "other possibilities" mentioned

Continue reading In The News Today


Picture of the Day – Shredded Federal Reserve Notes!

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:55 PM PDT

Liberty Blitzkrieg

My brother got this brick many years ago when he went on a high school tour of the East Rutherford Operation Center which processes currency for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

This brick consists of approximately 1,000 notes of various denominations and I think really brings the point home of how fleeting and worthless this "money" really is. Not so easy to shred gold is it?

Read More @ LibertyBlitzkrieg.com


Russia Today's 'Capital Account' interviews GATA's Bill Murphy

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:33 PM PDT

9:36p ET Monday, April 30, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed today for about 20 minutes by Lauren Lyster on the cable television network Russia Today's "Capital Account" program. There's a reason why the subject -- gold market manipulation -- can be discussed only in non-Western news media, and the continuing interest shown in it by Russia Today, a creation of the Russia government, suggests that governments not part of the market rigging have long figured it out. While Lyster's skirt is, certainly by design, shorter than JPMorgan's position in silver, she is once again well-versed in the subject and unafraid to press it to its uncomfortable conclusion, unlike the "money honeys" of U.S. cable TV networks. The RT interview with Murphy is posted at YouTube here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moY6bzQ2lY0

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Las Vegas Money Show
Caesar's Palace, Las Vegas
Monday-Thursday, May 14-17, 2012
http://www.moneyshow.com/tradeshow/las_vegas/moneyshow/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
"Money and the Corporate State"
Union League Club, New York, N.Y.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
http://www.cmre.org/

Vancouver World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 3-4, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/world-resource-investment-conference

Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012
J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong
http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome...

Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum
Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012
Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong
http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy
on '21st Century Business' on Fox Business Network

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project.

"21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast.

To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here:

http://www.goldenphoenix.us/company-videos.html



CNBC RATINGS COLLAPSE

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:32 PM PDT

Maybe it has something to do with them being Wall Street shills who spin all news positively. Maybe it has something to do with their vacuous bimbo pundits. Maybe it has to do with the fawning blowjob excuses for interviews they do with Buffett, Immelt, Dimon and the rest of the Wall Street scum. Maybe [...]


Philosophy of Max Keiser Pt. 3: Hackers, Pirates, Hollywood Oligarchs & The Fight for Free Speech

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:27 PM PDT

from Silver Vigilante:

"We hate banks here, but we hate Hollywood even more." – Max Keiser

Alongside his financial and economic analysis, Max Keiser has been a staunch ally of free speech through protestation against current copyright law and the championing of a free market forum for ideas. The philosophical reasons against copyright law as they currently stand – that is a virtual monopoly over a piece of work for lifetime +70-75 years – are fairly simple. In order to have a vibrant society, diversity is a key ingredient. We see this in life on earth, insofar as the environment of the planet thrives on a diversity of life which spurs over time novel environmental niches and, ultimately, novel, new life.

Read More @ SilverVigilante.com


'Fat finger,' Wall Street Journal? No, government's heavy hand on gold

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:12 PM PDT

9:17p ET Monday, April 30, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Wall Street Journal, which back in December published an essay by a recently resigned member of the Federal Reserve Board complaining that "policy makers" were "suppressing market prices that they don't like" and then, despite GATA's many importunings, refused to ask him to specify which prices and to explain whether he knew about this price suppression because of his service at the Fed --

http://www.gata.org/node/10839

-- today committed an equal act of journalistic obtuseness. It's appended.

The Journal noted this morning's strange and seemingly uneconomic smash down in the gold price and strained mightily to attribute it to a mistaken "fat finger" trade -- even though the "mistake" would have involved more than a billion dollars' worth of gold and this sort of thing lately has been happening practically every other day.

A far more obvious and plausible explanation is that the trade wasn't uneconomic at all -- that it was part of a central bank-sponsored defense of a short position in gold or a defense of a competing currency or both, part of the longstanding Western central bank scheme to rig the currency markets and particularly the gold market:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

But at least these odd movements in the gold market have become so blatant as to command even the Journal's attention, to the extent that the newspaper is compelled to contrive excuses and distractions. That's progress.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Gold Shakes Off $1.24 Billion 'Fat Finger'

By Tatyana Shumsky
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, April 30, 2012

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/30/gold-shakes-off-1-24-billion-...

Gold futures ended nearly unchanged Monday, after a large early-morning sell order roiled traders and slashed prices by almost $15.

The CME Group Inc.'s Comex division recorded an unusually large transaction of 7,500 gold futures during one minute of trading at 8:31 a.m. EDT. The sale took out blocks of bids as large as 84 contracts in one fell swoop and cut prices down to $1,648.80 a troy ounce. The overall transaction was worth more than $1.24 billion.

Gold traders buzzed with speculation that the transaction was an input error -- a so-called "fat finger" trade.

"Or a Gold Finger as it might be known in the bullion market," traders at Citi joked in a note to clients.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Prophecy Platinum (TSXV: NKL) and Ursa Major Minerals
Sign Combination Agreement

Company Press Release
Friday, March 2, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) and Ursa Major Minerals Inc. have signed a binding letter of agreement for a business combination through a proposed all-share transaction. In doing so Prophecy and Ursa have acted at arm's length and the transaction has been negotiated at arm's length.

Prophecy will issue one common share in exchange for every 25 outstanding common shares of Ursa. Ursa options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants of Prophecy on an agreed schedule.

Prophecy's offer represents a value of about $0.15 per each common share of Ursa based on Prophecy's share price of $3.70 as at March 1, representing a premium of 130 percent to Ursa's March 1 closing price of $0.065.

Prophecy is to subscribe for $1 million common shares of Ursa by way of private placement financing at $0.06 per share, subject to regulatory approval. Upon placement completion, John Lee and Greg Hall, current Prophecy directors, will be appointed to Ursa's board.

Prophecy thus will become a mid-tier resource company with a robust and diversified pipeline of platinum nickel projects, including:

-- The fully permitted open-pit Shakespeare PGM-Ni-Cu mine close to Sudbury, Ontario, infrastructure with near-term production capabilities.

-- The flagship Wellgreen (Yukon) PGM-Ni-Cu project with more than 10 million ounces of Pt-Pd-Au inferred resource. Drilling is under way and a preliminary economic assessment study is pending.

-- Manitoba's Lynn Lake Ni-Cu project with more than 262 million pounds Ni and 138 million pounds Cu measured and indicated.

For the complete announcement, please visit Prophecy Platinum's Internet site here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2012_mar02_prophecy_platinum_ursa_major...



One indicator that the transaction was a mistake was its size. At 750,000 troy ounces, such large trades are rarely conducted amid very thin trading volumes. Monday trading was expected to be quiet as market participants in China and Japan are out on holiday and many European traders are preparing for a holidays there.

"No one who has the account size and the money to trade thousands of gold contracts would do it in one transaction -- that's just stupid," said one trader. The collateral required to purchase 7,500 contracts is about $75.9 million in cash that the trader would have deposited with his broker.

Moreover, the likely mistake is symptomatic of the shift to electronic trading. Computer trading systems are vulnerable to input errors, as they do not question the order before executing the transaction. By contrast, when most order flow would pass through the Comex floor where human traders processed the deals, potential errors stood higher chances of being intercepted, traders said.

"You would definitely verify [a trade this big] before you executed it," said one Comex floor broker.

Still, not everyone agreed Monday's slip in gold was caused by a keystroke error. Chuck Retzky, director of futures sales for Mizuho Securities USA, said that silver prices suffered a similar leg down at the same time as gold, tumbling 35 cents to $30.805 a troy ounce, but other markets like Treasurys, currencies, and stocks were unperturbed.

"To do it both in gold and silver tells me that it wasn't a trade done in error," Retzky said. He added that the sale could have been caused by a trader looking to cut back holdings on the last trading day of April, as fund managers often time purchases and sales for particular reporting periods.

Meanwhile, gold prices spent much of Monday shaking off the early-morning losses and finished the day nearly unchanged at $1,664.20 a troy ounce.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Las Vegas Money Show
Caesar's Palace, Las Vegas
Monday-Thursday, May 14-17, 2012
http://www.moneyshow.com/tradeshow/las_vegas/moneyshow/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
"Money and the Corporate State"
Union League Club, New York, N.Y.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
http://www.cmre.org/

Vancouver World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 3-4, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/world-resource-investment-conference

Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012
J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong
http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome...

Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum
Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012
Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong
http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Bond, Stock & Gold Market Update

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 01:03 PM PDT

Mark J. Lundeen [EMAIL="Mlundeen2@Comcast.net"]Mlundeen2@Comcast.net[/EMAIL] 27 April 2012 Sorry for not writing for most of the month of April, but I've been under the weather for the past few weeks. Now that I'm feeling better I should be back writing weekly articles Since I've neglected the debt market for many months, this is as good a time as any to take a historical look at the bond market. Below is the credit spread between the Bond Buyer Municipal Bond Index (40 bond index) and Barron's Best Grade Bonds yields. Both series record bond yields since 1938, but not all bond yields are equal. Barron's Best Grade Bonds are US corporate bonds, and so pay taxable income (state and federal) to US citizens, while income from Municipal bonds is free from US Federal taxes. They are also free from state income tax if the bond buyer is a resident of the state issuing the muni-bond. This is why the mutual funds provide state-specific muni-bond funds, so people from...


MF Global: The Untold Story of the Biggest Wall Street Collapse Since Lehman

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:49 PM PDT

by Pam Martens, SilverBearCafe.com:

There are plenty of lessons to be learned from MF Global, all of which we can count on Congress to ignore at the behest of Wall Street money until the next financial crisis.

Only on Wall Street can you bankrupt a company; misplace $1.6 billion of customers' money; lose 75 percent of shareholders' money in two weeks; speed dial a high priced criminal attorney and get a court to authorize the payment of your multi-million dollar legal tab from the failed company's insurance policies; have regulators waive your requirements to take licensing exams required to work in the securities and commodities industry; have your Board of Directors waive your loyalty to the firm; run a bucket shop out of the UK; and still have the word "Honorable" affixed to your name in a Congressional investigations hearing.

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com


Ron Paul [The Truthsayer] vs. Paul Krugman [US Government Shill]

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:29 PM PDT


Paul Krugman & Ron Paul Face Off on Spending, Inflation, and The Fed


By Ron Haruni Apr 30, 2012, 6:54 PM Author's Website


Sparks flew when Paul Krugman and Congressman Ron Paul faced off today on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson….

Watch below to hear Ron Paul's ideas about staying in the Republican race…whether he would support Romney as nominee…how U.S. monetary policy is like the Roman Empire and why there should be legal competition to the U.S. dollar (yes, gold and silver).

Hear NYT columnist Krugman fire back on the role U.S. government should play in regulating the market economy…what economist Milton Friedman really thought about government stimulus…and what is the right level for debt for U.S. taxpayers (that's you).

Excerpts from the interview can be found below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.

[OR, you can watch entire interview on video at the bottom of this blog post]

Congressman Ron Paul on Professor Paul Krugman's views:

"[Krugman] believes in big government, from what I read and hear, and I believe in very small government. I emphasize personal liberties. I don't like a managed economy, whether it's through central economic planning or monetary policy or even Congress doing it. It's a completely different philosophy that markets are supposed to work, you know, in a natural way."

"I want a natural rate of interest. I don't want the government or Federal Reserve fixing the rate of interest. That's price fixing…This idea that somebody or some group might know what the proper amount of money might be or what the proper rate of interest should be is sort of presumptuous. I don't where they get this knowledge…When we talk about electing a president or a Congress to run the economy better, they're missing the whole point. Governments aren't supposed to run the economy. The people are."

Krugman's response to Ron Paul:

"You can't leave the government out of monetary policy. If you think we're going to let it set itself, it doesn't happen. If you think you can avoid the government from setting monetary policy, you're living in the world that was 150 years ago. We have an economy in which money is not just green pieces of paper with faces of dead presidents on them. Money is a part of the financial system that includes a variety of assets – we're not quite sure where the line between money and non-money is. It's a continuum."

"History tells us that in fact a completely unmanaged economy is subject to extreme volatility, subject to extreme downturns. I know this legend that some people like that the Great Depression was somehow caused by the government or the Federal Reserve, but that's not true. The reality is it was a market economy run amok, which happens repeatedly…I'm a believer in capitalism. I want the market economy to be left as free as it can be, but there are limits. You do need the government to step in to stabilize. Depressions are a bad thing for capitalism and it's the role of the government to make sure they don't happen, or if they do happen, they don't last too long."

Congressman Ron Paul on Krugman's idea that inflation is necessary to stimulate the economy:

"You're stealing value from people who save money. If you have a 2% or 10%, the value of the currency is lost. It really destroys an important feature of the economy, and that is savings. Savings tells us something – it tells us if capital is available. This notion that capital can come out of the expansion of money supply is remote."

"Professor Krugman indicates we just want to go back 100 years or so. That's not exactly true. We want to improve on what life was like back then. But he wants to go back 1,000 years or 2,000 years just as the Romans and the Greeks and all other countries debased their currency. They didn't have a computer. This idea that we need a Federal Reserve to run things or a central bank — that is just a modern times."

"What did the Romans do to their currency? The Byzantine Empire had a gold standard for a thousand years and they did quite well and they didn't fight wars. But the Roman empire eventually destroyed their currency. They put in wage and price controls before they diluted the metals. They inflated. They thought wealth could come by fooling the people. Who would want today – if they had 10 years to send their kid to college, would they put their money in gold coins or a Treasury bill making 1% or 2%? They can't keep up with the inflation or the devaluation of the currency."

Krugman's response:

"I'm not a defender of the economic policies of the Emperor Diocletion, let's make that clear."

"I'm a defender of the economic policies that we followed after World War II that produced the best generation of economic growth this country has experienced. We had a set of policies that provided mild inflation, there was effective government regulation of the financial system so it didn't go wild…We had fiscal policy that stimulated the economy when it was needed. We had policies that fostered a strong middle-class instead of using the worship of the supposedly ideal force of the market….I like the America that my parents prospered in. I think we can restore a lot of that."

Ron Paul's response:

"Just remember that Bernanke apologized to Friedman because the Federal Reserve was responsible for prolonging the agony of the depression. You have to liquidate the debt. After World War II, a lot of the debt was liquidated. But guess what else we did? Troops were coming home. 10 million people were coming home. Big government liberals wanted to have job programs. They weren't put into place. We cut spending by some 60%, we slashed taxes. Finally, the Depression ended. So, it was that liquidation of debt that made it available that we could come back to work again."

Krugman's response:

"I want to say something about Milton Friedman here because if you actually read what he wrote in his writing for economists, as opposed to some of his loose popular writings, he actually said that the Federal Reserve was responsible for the Great Depression because it didn't go enough. Friedman's complaint was that the Federal Reserve did not print enough money. I know this. When Ben Bernanke was talking about the helicopter, he was taking that from Milton Friedman. That was really his idea. The state of the economic debate in America right now Milton Friedman would count on the far left of monetary policy."

Ron Paul's response to Krugman:

"The point is, the Fed does either too much or too little and they can't do it. They don't have a good record – they've ruined 98% of the value of the currency since 1913. That's dishonest – that steals value from people. Why should people get 1% for their money for savings in the banks get it for practically free? Why did the Federal Reserve bail out the rich and not give the money to the mortgage holders? If you care about poor people…Why didn't you use helicopters and pass it back to the home builders? That would be more fair."

Ron Paul on what the role of the Fed should be:

"I'll tell you what we could do. Even with my book, it doesn't call for the end of the Fed because it would be chaotic if we ended the Fed. Too many people depend on it. All I want to do is get rid of the monopoly."

"I want to legalize competition. There's legal competition on currencies around the world, so why can't we allow ourselves here the legal competition over gold or silver standard? Why is the Fed so frightened of this? If I'm wrong, who cares? If I'm right — if you want the paper money and I'm wrong, it doesn't hurt anybody. Just allow me to legalize the currency, get rid of the monopoly, take the taxes off gold and silver and get rid of the sales tax and capital gains tax — don't hide behind a monopoly. People today if they use gold and silver, you can go to jail."

Krugman's response:

"That's not my understanding of the law. But do you really think people use dollar bills because the federal government isn't allowing them to use other stuff? That seems like a very strange point of view…You can do barter with all kinds of stuff…The fact of the matter is, we actually have too much currency competition. This crisis was brought on by an expansion of what amounted to private money in the form of things like repo which were uncontrolled and turned into an enormous crisis when it collapsed."

Ron Paul:

"If a private company commits fraud, they go to jail. If the Federal Reserve commits fraud, they get nothing….If you had a private issue of money and you committed a fraud, you would go to jail. But, no, governments can debase the currency and injure a lot of people and cause the business cycle and cause inflation and cause unemployment and get off scot-free."

Krugman:

"I have been pretty harsh on Ben Bernanke, but fraud is not one of the things I would charge him with."

Ron Paul: "You want him to print more money faster."

Krugman: "Well, of course I do."

Professor Krugman on how much higher we could go with debt as a ratio of GDP:

"I don't have a fixed number. But if it takes another 30 points to get us out of this depression, I'm willing to accept that. I'm not going to claim there's no risk, but the risk of not doing what it takes to get out of a depression is a clear and present danger. I don't want us to go up to Japanese levels of debt, even though they turn out to be able to carry those levels of debt. But we're not anywhere close to a red line here, is the point. I can't give you a specific number."

"When John Maynard Keynes was writing, Britain had debt on the order of 130% GDP. That didn't stop fiscal stimulus from being the answer. Trying to reduce that number by slashing spending even now actually makes even the debt problem worse. If you are going to say — my proposal is to actually destroy the economy so we can't afford to carry the debt we already have, that's not a helpful policy."

Ron Paul's response:

"[Krugman] ignores the fact that we did better after World War II when we did reduce the debt and the spending. But we don't know the precise date. It could be tomorrow or some other event because there is a subjective factor involved. We are sort of given a leeway because the world still trusts our dollar. So I sort of agree with him. But it just means a bigger bubble for our bonds and our dollar, so we don't know. But if this were true — if you believe that the world will continue to take our dollars no matter what our debt is, Americans shouldn't have to work anymore."

"We would just print all the money. The worst part about all this is the facilitation of debt. Because the Fed is the lender of resort — not only to their friends on Wall Street and all their banker friends, but also the politicians who get re-elected by running up these debts, and that the Fed always is there. They have to be there. So if you love big government and think it can last forever, I can understand why you love the Fed. But some of us believe in freedom and markets and sound market and no more wars."

Krugman's response:

"I believe in markets. I don't believe in using monetary policy to perpetrate depression."

Ron Paul on whether debt or unemployment is biggest threat to the U.S:

"I think it's the debt that does it because it's a cause of unemployment. All the money is going into government spending and paying the debt, therefore it comes out of the marketplace and that causes unemployment. I think the unemployment is a lot worse than 8% because even the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, when they report the people who don't look for work any longer, it's much higher. We're in a very serious crisis. It's big government, big spending, this idea that the Fed is always there and can bail the politicians out. They are the lender of last resort for the politicians and all the big banks and all the things that they do in this atmosphere that we have today."

Ron Paul on why CEOs are not feeling confident about the future:

"I think the real damage is being done by the politicians. They talk about deficit but there were bout 12 of us that started out in the Republican primary and nobody else offered a real cut. I offered a $1 trillion cut in one year. So it's the government that knows the lender of last resort will always buy these Treasury bills, will always keep interest rates lower than the market. If the politicians knew interest rates would get bumped up, if they started hogging up all the credit, they'd have to quit. They wouldn't be able to finance the wars, they wouldn't be able to finance run-away welfare. Politically, it's almost impossible for them to accept that."

"[The Fed] is an accomplice. It's everybody. The people have an appetite for big government. In the Republican primary, they want you to go into Iran and they want you to go into Syria and all these places, even more so than Obama. People still have an appetite for welfare, enough for the politicians not to want to cut back. The people have the appetite, the politicians love to wield power and influence and that's how they can raise money. Also, the Fed is there to accommodate. It doesn't have to come out of savings. This is where the distortions come from. You can get away with this for a while. Really the breakdown in the system occurred in 1971."

Ron Paul on whether cutting spending will make the U.S. the next Spain:

"If you only do the austerity, then you don't correct other problems. In Europe, they are further along in their socialistic welfare programs than we are. Just cutting the spending, if you don't deal with the tax code and the regulatory code and the Federal Reserve, yes, it will be difficult. It's a major, major task. I want to see something competing with the Federal Reserve because one day the dollar will be deserted."

"There's no reason for the world to cling to dollars and use the dollar. Already the other nations are talking about another reserve currency. There's a lot of talk that the countries that got into the most trouble in the Middle East are the ones who didn't want to use dollars anymore. They're talking about even selling and buying gold. Now that we put sanctions on Iran, they're talking about buying and selling oil in gold. One of these days, that's going to to happen and there'll be a rush out of the dollar, interest rates will go up, and this thing will end."

Ron Paul on pegging the U.S. dollar to gold:

"I want the market to decide what to do, but, yes, the Constitution still says the dollar should be pegged to gold and/or silver."

"That's exactly what the purpose is – limit the flexibility [of the Fed]. You want the market to send the indicators because people at the Fed aren't smart enough to know what the supply of money should be….Because of this confusion, for the businessman, once the confidence is lost, it's much better for the banks to get money for free."

Ron Paul on staying in the race:

"Until the votes are counted. Just look at this last week. The news is very favorable to us. We could even end up winning Iowa, ironically enough. In Minnesota, we're doing well, and Maine, Nevada and Missouri. We're doing very, very well. Some of the states we could very well win or come up very much because the delegate process is completely different than these straw votes. We're pleased… It's another month or so until they count all the delegates and we find out where we stand."

On whether he would support Romney if Romney is nominated:

"It depends on a lot of ideas, and what his platform is going to be. If I disagree with every single thing in his platform, it's going to be tough. If it's 100% opposite on everything I have said on civil liberties, on war issues, on spending cuts, on monetary policy, you know, what can I do?

"We have millions of people now supporting our campaign, and millions that haven't been heard from because they're independents and Democrats that are unhappy with Obama. To support somebody that might have 100% opposite views of mine would be difficult. Hopefully [Romney] sticks to his guns about not raising taxes."


Everything is Going Down – Ranting Andy Hoffman

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:28 PM PDT

from FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com:

Andy Hoffman is here for his Monday Rant. Seems the worldwide economy is sinking faster than the standard of living of the average American worker. There's nothing else to blame but the collapsing dollar and the fiat currency based world economy. It is appearing more and more likely there will be nothing left standing in its path, except perhaps the few people that had the foresight to purchase gold and silver. Certainly, if you have any chance of surviving at all, precious metals are the road to salvation. Bu then again, maybe governments will become honest and banks will become non-profit organizations so we can all go back to buying stuff we didn't need anyway, but then again, probably not.

Click here to listen to Kerry Lutz and Ranting Andy

Read More @ FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

GATA's Bill Murphy exposes how the Gold Cartel is Bombing the Market for Precious Metals

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:24 PM PDT

There is a war going between those who favor gold-silver and others who are clinging onto the last remnants of the US Dollar.

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:04 PM PDT

Critical Factors That Will Impact Silver As the lights continue to go out for the world's reserve currency, the US Dollar; trade wars escalate and threats of nationalization and the monetization of the precious metals become increasing probabilities. All these … Continue reading


The Market Calls BS on Spain's Efforts to Cover Its Toxic Banking Debt

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 12:02 PM PDT

In a previous article I began delving into the toxic sewer that is the Spanish banking system. At the root of the problem is the previously unregulated Spanish cajas or regional/ local banks which own as much as 56% of all Spanish mortgages.

 

To give you an idea of how bad things are with the cajas, consider that in February 2011 the Spanish Government implemented legislation demanding all Spanish banks have equity equal to 8% of their “risk-weighted assets.” Those banks that failed to meet this requirement had to either merge with larger banks or face partial nationalization.

 

The deadline for meeting this capital request was September 2011. Between February 2011 and September 2011, the number of cajas has in Spain has dropped from 45 to 17.

 

Put another way, over 60% of cajas could not meet the capital requirements of having equity equal to just 8% of their risk-weighted assets. As a result, 28 toxic caja balance sheets have been merged with other (likely equally troubled) banks or have been shifted onto the public’s balance sheet via partial nationalization.

 

The markets are well aware that this policy has only spread the toxic garbage, not fixed it. Case in point, take a look at the chart for Banco Sabadell which was merged with toxic Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo or CAM for short.

 

 

The merger increased Banco Sabadell’s size by 75%... and the market saw this as a good thing for a total of two weeks: shares are now down 30% from their merger levels.

 

Banco Popular, which acquired failing caja Banco Pastor, has experienced a similar fate, falling to a new low soon after the merger:

 

 

My point with all of this is that merging one garbage bank with another larger slightly less garbage bank doesn’t solve anything. The market knows this, which is why we see these banks continuing to collapse despite being merged.

 

Having addressed all of this, I firmly believe that no one, not even the Spanish Government has a clue how much toxic garbage debt exists in the Spanish banking system.

 

Moreover, it’s not as though the Spanish Government is heavily incentivized to come clean about the true nature of the Spanish banking system even if it did know the facts.

 

Case in point, the Government just admitted that Spanish banks will need another €29 billion in loan loss provisions yesterday, before revealing that  “problem loans” for the Spanish banking system are now at an 18-year high of 8.15% (€140 billion of the total €1.7 trillion in loans within the Spanish Banking System).

 

Put another way, by the Spanish Government’s own admission (read extremely conservative estimate) nearly one out of every €10 leant out by Spanish banks is probably not going to be paid back.

 

And things are only going to get worse. Spanish citizens (at least those that have money) have been pulling their money out of Spain en masse: €65 billion left the Spanish banking system in March 2011 alone.

 

This flight of capital will result in higher leverage levels for Spanish banks (already leveraged at 20 to 1) and smaller capital buffers with which to address future losses.

 

Put another way, capital is leaving Spain at the very time when Spanish banks need it the most. Indeed, things have gotten so bad that the Spanish Government has limited cash transactions over €2,500.

 

Simply put, Spain’s banking system is an absolute sewer of toxic debts that no one, likely not even the Spanish Government or Spanish Central Bank, truly has a grip on.

 

The few facts that we do know are:

 

  • Total Spanish banking loans are equal to 170% of Spanish GDP.
  • Troubled loans at Spanish Banks just hit an 18-year high.
  • Spanish Banks are drawing a record €316.3 billion from the ECB (up from €169.2 billion in February).
  • The share prices of Spanish banks that were merged with cajas have broken to new lows.

 

None of this is good news at all. Especially when you also consider that…

 

Spanish banks need to roll over 20% of their debt this year.

 

That’s correct, one fifth of all Spanish bank bonds need to be paid off or renegotiated in 2012. And this is happening at a time in which Spanish interest rates are rising. Indeed, the Spanish ten year is approaching the dreaded 7%: the level at which Greece and other PIIGS sought bailouts.

 

The only problem is: Spain is far too big to be bailed out.

 

On that note, I fully believe the EU in its current form is in its final chapters. Whether it’s through Spain imploding or Germany ultimately pulling out of the Euro, we’ve now reached the point of no return: the problems facing the EU (Spain and Italy) are too large to be bailed out. There simply aren’t any funds or entities large enough to handle these issues.

 

So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now. I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investment (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.

 

This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.

 

And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The Gold Price Needs to Burst Through the $1,682 Resistance to Confirm Next Rally

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 11:16 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1663.40
Change : (0.60) or -0.04%

Silver Price Close Today : 3095.90
Change : 38.80 cents or -1.24%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.729
Change : 0.646 or 1.22%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01861
Change : -0.000226 or -1.20%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1564.30
Change : 19.90 or 1.29%

Palladium Price Close Today : 681.70
Change : 23.45 or 3.56%

S&P 500 : 1,397.91
Change : -5.45 or -0.39%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.21
Change : $ (0.11) or -0.06%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.944
Change : -0.005 or -0.06%

Dow in SILVER oz : 426.81
Change : 4.81 or 1.14%

Dow Industrial : 13,213.63
Change : -14.68 or -0.11%

US Dollar Index : 78.78
Change : 0.075 or 0.10%

The GOLD PRICE showed the sort of action I deeply love. It opened flat, got pounded on the US open, straight down, then fast and steady rose right out of that hole to close nearly unchanged. Well, closed at $1,663.40, down sixty cents. Why do I like that action? $1,645 support, then returned to challenge $1,665 resistance. This maintains the uptrend and thumbs its nose at sellers.

On that gold chart with the falling wedge, gold did no more today than fall back for a final kiss good-bye to the upper boundary. If the GOLD PRICE can resist falling below $1,645, then it has broken out of that falling wedge and begun its next rally. Caution: there's likely to be a lot of very slowly rising mostly sideways action for a while. Remember that in the next week or so gold needs to burst through $1,682 resistance.

SILVER PRICE dropped 38.8 cents today to 3095.9c. Low came at 3057.8c, about where we saw most of the lows last week. After the usual early morning opening attack on silver, it recovered but didn't trade up as high as gold, only to the 3100c level.

This also speaks with forked tongue on that falling wedge chart. The low took silver down through the wedge's upper boundary, but silver closed above it. Silver is laboring to break out.

Last week we saw the lows (I believe) now the SILVER and GOLD PRICE are just breaking free of lower resistance levels before they start leaping.

Whatever hopes stock investors held that stocks would surge ahead today were dashed. Dow dropped 14.68 (0.11%), turned back again by the noxious miasma at 12,300. S&P backed off 0.39% (5.45) to 1,397.91. Only a Dow close above 12,325 can turn this picture positive.

US Dollar Index did nothing today to salvage its reputation. Oh, it rose 7.5 basis points -- mere dandelion fluff in the wind -- to 78.784, but after so clearly breaking down last week, such moves arouse only contempt. Dollar index could rally all the way to 79.25 for a final kiss back to the trendline it broke through, but unless it closes above 79.50, the dollar will drop further.

Euro dropped 0.11% today to $1.3239. Dollar is breaking down, euro is holding up, and only the yen seems to be profiting. Euro does, at least, barely remain above its 62 DMA (1.3206). As Friday's chart plainly foretold, the yen advanced again today. Gained 0.47% to 125.29c (Y79.81/US$1). Will move higher until the Mystic Knights of the Central Bank hit it again.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.


Economics Throw-down!! Krugman vs. Ron Paul on Bloomberg TV --- Helicopters, Gold and More

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 11:15 AM PDT

Sparks flew when Paul Krugman and Congressman Ron Paul faced off today on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson.... Read More...



Monthly Gold Charts

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 11:15 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Isn't it amazing that some are so ready to call for an end to the bull market in gold. From a monthly chart perspective, there is nothing to indicate such an occurrence. In 2008, the CLOSING MONTHLY GOLD PRICE dropped 26.5% from its best to worst level before it renewed its uptrend. More recently, gold has dropped a mere 14.4% from it bests closing monthly level to its worst level reached with a handle of "15" in front of the gold price. Keep in mind that purely from a long term technical chart perspective, the metal remains in a solid uptrend. As a side note - for those of you would never seem to grow tired of castigating me for using the phony government CPI data in calculating my inflation adjusted gold price chart, please make an attempt to restrain yourself. You are always welcome to create one of your own and send it to us for publication which I will gladly to do. ...


Incredibly Bullish ‘Fallopian Tube' Chart Pattern for Gold

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 11:08 AM PDT


"Gold Stocks Are the Cheapest I've Ever Seen"

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 10:50 AM PDT

Synopsis: Some miners are reaping $1,000-per-ounce profit margins on gold… but that's hardly the only reason to hang on to your precious metals stocks. Dear Readers, BIG GOLD's Jeff Clark recently caught up with Charles Oliver, the senior portfolio manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund (SPR003, Series A; unavailable in the US). He made a splash with a gold-price prediction four years ago that didn't quite come true, with consequences that have created a new legend for the man, as you can see below. That amusing episode now behind us, we have to say that we like and respect Charles, so Jeff interviewed him to learn what he sees coming next. Charles also discussed the lag in gold stocks and what may turn them around, the possibility of companies hedging their production, why he's bullish on silver, and more. I'm actually with Jeff now, in Florida at our Recovery Reality Check Summit, where we are both doing o...


Wall St. Journal covers gold and silver manipulation

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 10:20 AM PDT

Today's $1.24 Billion Targeted Gold Slam Down Makes The Mainstream Press Here we are covering the story 4 years ago:


Today's $1.24 Billion Targeted Gold Slam Down Makes The Mainstream Press

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 10:13 AM PDT

For the first time in what may be ages, a phenomenon that has become near and dear to anyone who trades gold, and which at best elicits a casual smirk from those who observe it several times daily, we find that the WSJ has finally picked up on the topic of the endless daily gold slam down, where the seller in complete disregard for market disruption (because in a normal world one wants to sell any given lot without notifying the market that one is selling so as to get a good price on the next lot... but not in the gold market where the seller slams the bid with reckless abandon) ignores market depth and in a demonstration of nothing but brute price manipulation force, slams every bid down just to demoralize further buying. Naturally, that this simply provides buyers with a more depressed price than is "fair" is lost on the seller, but not on the buyers who promptly bid up the metal as attempt to demoralize buying end in failure after failure. Yet it is peculiar that today, for the first time, the intraday gold slam down has finally made the MSM. To wit: "The CME Group Inc.'s Comex division recorded an unusually large transaction of 7,500 gold futures during one minute of trading at 8:31 a.m. EDT. The sale took out blocks of bids as large as 84 contracts in one fell swoop and cut prices down to $1,648.80 a troy ounce. The overall transaction was worth more than $1.24 billion... Gold traders buzzed with speculation that the transaction was an input error — a so-called "fat finger" trade. "Or a Gold Finger as it might be known in the bullion market," traders at Citi joked in a note to clients." Well, no. It wasn't.

Because if it was, by that logic the gold market falls prey to a fat finger every single day, often times 2 or 3 times a day. But because gold market participants have learned that complaining to the CFTC about this kind of manipulation has no impact, and because at the end of the day it merely provides a cheap reentry price, most have grown to love and anticipate these kinds of moves. In fact, we can only hope that the CFTC and SEC ignores this WSJ update, and lets the market keep on keeping on without changing anything. Because otherwise who will provide the depressed price levels that permit conversion of worthless paper into Fed-detested, undilutable barbarous tradition?

From the WSJ:

One indicator that the transaction was a mistake was its size. At 750,000 troy ounces, such large trades are rarely conducted amid very thin trading volumes. Monday trading was expected to be quiet as market participants in China and Japan are out on holiday and many European traders are preparing for a holidays there

Attempts at manipulation are getting so glaringly obvious, not even the MSM pretends to believe them:

"No one who has the account size and the money to trade thousands of gold contracts would do it in one transaction, that's just stupid," said one trader. The collateral required to purchase 7,500 contracts is about $75.9 million in cash that the trader would have deposited with his broker.

 

Moreover, the likely mistake is symptomatic of the shift to electronic trading. Computer trading systems are vulnerable to input errors, as they do not question the order before executing the transaction. By contrast, when most order flow would pass through the Comex floor where human traders processed the deals, potential errors stood higher chances of being intercepted, traders said.

 

"You would definitely verify [a trade this big] before you executed it," said one Comex floor broker.

Sorry Citi, but it was not a gold finger:

not everyone agreed Monday's slip in gold was caused by a keystroke error. Chuck Retzky, director of futures sales for Mizuho Securities USA, said that silver prices suffered a similar leg down at the same time as gold, tumbling 35 cents to $30.805 a troy ounce, but other markets like Treasurys, currencies and stocks were unperturbed.

 

"To do it both in gold and silver tells me that it wasn't a trade done in error," Retzky said. He added that the sale could have been caused by a trader looking to cut back holdings on the last trading day of April, as fund managers often time purchases and sales for particular reporting periods.

Or, it was made by a trader at the BIS, whose job is to crush credibility in gold, and who describes himself as a market maker for central banks for all gold products, and who holds and manages proprietary positions on all currencies including gold (so wait... gold IS a currency according to the BIS? Gotcha).

Where have we seen this before? Oh yes.

As for gold...Dont cry for it Argentina... or try to nationalize it for that matter: that is an honor that is expressly reserved for the second teleprompted coming of FDR, and the second coming of Executive Order 6102.


Gold Short Term Bullish Base?

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 10:01 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com April 30, 2012 01:59 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Last week’s hold above the 4/4 low suggests that gold has been forming a bullish base since mid-March. Exceeding the April high would put bulls in control towards the trendline above 1700 (that line extends off of the September 2011 and February 2012 highs). Bottom Line (next 5 days) – higher?...


Rosenberg Takes On The Student Loan Bubble, And The 1937-38 Collape; Summarizes The Big Picture

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 09:46 AM PDT

Few have been as steadfast in their correct call that the US economy sugar high of the first quarter was nothing but a liquidity-driven, hot weather-facilitated uptick in the economy, which has now ended with a thud, as seen by the recent epic collapse in all high-frequency economic indicators, which have not translated into a market crash simply because the market is absolutely convinced that the worse things get, the more likely the Fed is to come in with another round of nominal value dilution. Perhaps: it is unclear if the Fed will risk a spike in inflation in Q2 especially since as one of the respondents in today's Chicago PMI warned very prudently that Chinese inflation is about to hit America in the next 60 days. That said, here are some of today's must read observations on where we stand currently, on why 1937-38 may be the next imminent calendar period deja vu, and most importantly, the fact that Rosie now too has realized that the next credit bubble is student debt as we have been warning since last summer.

First, Rosie on the big picture:

An Accounting Of The Macro Risks

 

We have been on the receiving end of endless analysis suggesting that double- dip recession risks in the U.S. are either zero or completely trivial. The primary reasons given for this view are: the positively sloped yield curve, negative real short-term rates, no sign of inventory excess and no sign of a flattening in the trend in the leading indicators (aside from the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index).

 

Not too long ago, we were sent one particular Street report that began with a comment on how the analysis incorporated data from the last eight recessions in the United States. But why are these eight recessions in the post-WWII era relevant? This past recession was not just a blip or correction in GDP due to a manufacturing inventory-led recession, it was a traumatic asset price deflation and credit contraction of historic proportions.

 

Take us at our word, if Ben Bernanke is worried, it is not about what drives a post-WWII cycle. He has the 1937-38 brutal downturn in mind and this is actually a much more appropriate template, notwithstanding the changed structure of the economy.

 

Heading into both the 1937-38 and the recent downturn, there was no sign of inventory excess (prior to the '37-'38 recession, inventories contributed 20% to the economic expansion; in 2009, it was over 60%). And, going into the 1937-38 meltdown in the economy and the stock market, the U.S. yield curve was positively sloped to the tune of 240bps. But why do so many cling to the "yield curve" in a credit cycle in any event?

 

Just as the flattening yield curve and tightening Fed (the funds rate did rise 425bps) were no match for the parabolic credit expansion from 2003 to 2007, it would seem foolhardy to revert to the yield curve's steepness today as some bellwether leading indicator when we are on the other (darker) side of the credit cycle. At best it gives the banks another way to generate low-multiple trading profits, and that's about it.

 

Moreover, where were "real" short-term interest rates heading into the unexpected 1937-38 collapse? How about minus 200bps? What was at play in that recession was not inventories, the curve or real rates — it was the sudden withdrawal of fiscal support after years of massive New Deal stimulus.

 

Let's look at the situation from a top-down view. During this statistical recovery from the 2009 bottom, real U.S. GDP growth averaged 2.4% at an annual rate, and of that, 0.7 percentage points came from inventories. Excluding inventories, otherwise known as "real final sales" average annual real GDP growth was 1.7%, on average — is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. This despite a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, a government debt-to-GDP ratio rapidly heading to 100%, a near zero Fed funds rate, record low mortgage rates, an unprecedented tripling in the size of the Fed balance sheet, shifting accounting rules to help rejuvenate profit growth in the financial sector, cheap and easy FHA financing to virtually anyone who wants to buy a home, relentless government pressure on banks to modify defaulted loans and bailout stimulus galore.

 

Well, what's past is past. Where are we going? It's pretty clear from the manufacturing components of the last payroll report and the latest ISM index that the inventory cycle is either reaching its peak or it already has.

 

We can see from the latest auto sales report and auto buying plans in the confidence surveys that the bolstering economic impact from the revival in the motor vehicle sector has run its course.

 

As for housing, sales and mortgage purchase applications are still languishing despite mortgage rates at record low levels and this also attests to the degree of excessive demand from the prior bubble that is still being worked off. Moreover, commercial construction is beset by high and still-rising vacancy rates in the office and shopping centre space.

 

It would be nice to see an export boom but the overseas economies, to varying extents, are feeling the effects of last year's tightening in monetary policy (emerging Asia) or the current tightening in fiscal policy (submerging Europe). And, although the U.S. consumer is not exactly rolling over, spending fatigue seems to be setting in, along with a natural rise in the personal savings rate.

 

Perhaps U.S. capital spending will be a lynchpin, but at only 7% of GDP, it will contribute a handful of basis points to headline growth.

 

Then we come to the near-20% chunk of the U.S. economy, the government sector. Two-thirds of that comes from the beleaguered state and local government sectors, which are in a full-fledged retrenchment mode as it cuts services, raises taxes, and lays off civil servants to the tune of 10,000 month in and month out, to reverse the flow of red budgetary ink.

 

After contributing about one percentage point annually to OECD growth over the past three years, fiscal policy in the industrialized world is set to subtract the same amount in the coming year. In a world of small numbers, that's pretty big.

 

In the U.S., the fiscal withdrawal will be closer to four percentage points of GDP next year, unless more cans are kicked down the road after the November election. So, if the peak of inventory contribution is behind us, and all we have left is a baseline growth trend in real final sales of less than 2%, then economic contraction next year becomes a very distinct possibility. Besides, for any president, new or incumbent, it makes perfect sense to get the bad news out of the way in year-one of the election cycle than year four.

How the Gluskin Sheff strategist makes sense of it all:

What we have on our hands right now is a recovery built of straw instead of bricks. An economic expansion and bull market built on rampant expansion of the Fed and Federal governments' balance sheet is neither sustainable nor desirable. I am convinced that we will, before long, be replaying something along the lines of the reversal of the tech mania and the reversal of the housing mania, which were equally unsustainable.

Most importantly, Rosie's take on the student debt bubble.

The Next Credit Bubble

 

Could well be in student debt, where outstanding loans surged $117 billion last year to over $1 trillion. More than 80% of 18-24 year olds that have taken out college loans still have a balance and 30% have more than 20% owing. This overhang has far-reaching implications beyond Sallie Mae's balance sheet — it is also a reason why the young first-time homebuyer is notably absent from the real estate market and why this may well remain the case for some time to come as this key demand group works off the mountain of student debt before applying for a mortgage loan. For a sense of how this student loan saga is unfolding, also have a look at Trying to Shed Student Debt on page A3 of the weekend WSJ — as the deleveraging cycle is about to take on an entirely new deflationary dimension.

 

The lack of demand from the traditional first-time homebuyer group (the U.S. real estate market is really getting most of its underpinnings from investors buying up distressed units to then rent out) is compounding the inventory overhang that is, in turn, maintaining downward pressure on home prices in the vast majority of markets.

 

Take a look at page A2 of today's WSJ (Housing Ends Slide but Faces a Long Bottom): banks still own 450,000 foreclosed properties, there are another 2 million units right now in the foreclosure process and there are an additional 1.7 million homes in some form of delinquency. This means total supply (actual and potential) of over 4 million units and that does not include the near-record 3.6 million vacant units being held off the market for "unspecified reasons". This means a total vacancy rate in the owner-occupied sector of between 5% and 10% which is huge excess supply and likely a dead-weight drag on housing values for some to come, even if demand does manage to soon outstrip depleted rates of new construction.

Source: Gluskin Sheff


Citibank analyst expects higher gold, oil, AND dollar

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 09:19 AM PDT

5:16p ET Monday, April 30, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

King World News today interviews Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick and finds him bearing charts that give him confidence that gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar are going higher. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/30_Ci...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy
on '21st Century Business' on Fox Business Network

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project.

"21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast.

To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here:

http://www.goldenphoenix.us/company-videos.html



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Paul Vs Paul Post-Mortem

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 09:09 AM PDT

By way of post-mortem of this afternoon's epic Paul vs Paul cage-match, we reflect on the various headlines the two gentlemen made during the event and in the context of the credibility with which one of the gentlemen discusses his ability to manage the world and the 'ease' with which he and his henchmen can control inflation (and that an unmanaged economy is subject to 'extreme volatility'), we remind readers of the post-WWII years and the extreme swings in purchasing power that their so-called managed economy created - a period which Krugman explicitly pointed out as golden years for the post-depressionary period.

Summarizing the words and thoughts of a megalomaniacal Keynesian dream-maker is hard but the following effluent effusive comments via Bloomberg will provide the much-needed color on this afternoon's Bloomberg TV appearance:

  • *KRUGMAN SAYS FED SHOULD ACCEPT HIGHER RATE OF INFLATION
  • *KRUGMAN: FED SHOULD KEEP RATES LOW UNTIL "WELL PAST" 2014
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS INFLATION EASIER TO CONTROL THAN DEFLATION
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS U.S. WOULD BE BETTER OFF WITH 4% INFLATION RATE
  • *KRUGMAN: CONTINUED MASS UNEMPLOYMENT "RECKLESS". NOT INFLATION
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS "PERSISTENTLY DEPRESSED"
  • *KRUGMAN SEES "MASSIVE FAILURE" OF SYSTEM WITH  8% JOBLESS RATE
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS "NO REASON TO PANIC" OVER U.S. DEBT NOW
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS U.S. DEBT NOT "ANYWHERE CLOSE TO A RED LINE"
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS SLASHING SPENDING MAKES DEBT PROBLEM WORSE
  • *KRUGMAN SAYS UNMANAGED ECONOMY SUBJECT TO "EXTREME VOLATILITY"

US CPI in the 1940s...Zee Stabilitee

And from the more open-minded of the two 'Pauls' - it appears his statements lie somewhere in the credible (and not at all psychotic and narcissistic) regions of the mind:

  • *RON PAUL SAYS GOVERNMENTS AREN'T SUPPOSED TO RUN THE ECONOMY
  • *RON PAUL SAYS `THE PEOPLE' ARE SUPPOSED TO RUN THE ECONOMY
  • *RON PAUL: FED HAS DESTROYED 98% OF DOLLAR'S VALUE SINCE 1913
  • *RON PAUL SAYS FED SHOULDN'T HAVE A MONOPOLY OF CURRENCY

and while he does note that:

  • *PAUL SAYS FED IS LENDER OF LAST RESORT FOR POLITICIANS

he also adds more pragmatically that

  • *RON PAUL SAYS WOULD BE "CHAOTIC" TO END THE FED RIGHT AWAY


A Defensive Portfolio Is the Best Offense: Paolo Lostritto

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 08:40 AM PDT

The Gold Report: Paolo, a lot has changed since we talked in January 2011. Specifically, National Bank Financial purchased your former employer, Wellington West Mining. More generally, the once-rebounding world of precious metals equities is now decidedly bearish. What is your take on precious metals equities? Paolo Lostritto: We are seeing two things. One is ongoing cost creep and eroding margins. The second is a dampening of valuations as the market tries to assess the resurgence of sovereign debt risk and the potential of an unorganized breakup in Europe, as signaled by bond yields. TGR: How have those factors changed your thesis for gold equities? PL: This situation is ultimately a positive for gold as there are only two ways out. One, you can try to devalue your currency, which a lot of are countries are trying to do and should lead to an inflationary recession. The second is having the multiple layers of debt collapse onto itself, leading to a deflationary recession. The gol...


Catastrophically Successful Life Extension

Posted: 30 Apr 2012 08:39 AM PDT

Truly historic discoveries and therapies are coming online right now that will radically decrease the threat and cost of autoimmune disorders, cancers, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's, arthritis, obesity and diabetes, as well as dangerous influenzas, HIV and other virus-borne diseases. Regular readers know that I'm referring to companies in our portfolio.

Clearly, this is good news both for humanity in general and investors specifically. However, these changes will be, by definition, enormously disruptive. As is always the case when big changes create new winners and dethrone the old ones. How big will these changes be?

Consider the fact that already, life extension is our No. 1 public-policy challenge. It is, in fact, the root cause of our current mortgage and debt fiascos — both only symptoms of successful life-extending technologies. The technologies that have precipitated these crises, however, will soon be overshadowed by the wave of revolutionary biotech innovation.

Even those who have no personal interest in life-extension strategies, beyond those supplied by conventional medical networks, will have to deal with the social and economic problems they cause. Our lives will be profoundly affected by emerging biotechnologies that will push maximum healthy life spans up much faster and further than ever before.

Typically, when I say that life extension brings problems, the default assumption is that I'm referring to traditional fears of resource depletion and overpopulation. I'm not.

There's not room here to deal with the Malthusian impulse. Nor, however, do I feel as if I need to. Innovation has never yet failed to find solutions to changing resource challenges, as our current situation testifies. Obesity, not starvation, is for the first time in history mankind's major challenge. Peak Oil has proven yet another overblown panic attack, as will various other resource fears — unless they are enforced via regulatory agencies. Current drug shortages, caused in large part by government price controls and regulatory morass, offer a good example.

Likewise, the fallacy of overpopulation fears was clear as far back as 1929, when demographer Warren Thompson observed that the transition from preindustrial to industrial economies was inevitably accompanied by significantly lower birth and death rates. Lower birth rates were a matter of choice, given lower infant mortality. Longer lives came from science and capitalism. The life-extension technologies they delivered included clean water, infrastructure and improved agricultural productivity. Medical and nutritional discoveries also contributed.

As was predicted by rational demographers, two direct consequences ensued from the demographic transition: shrinking younger populations and growing aged populations. Nevertheless, Warren's predictions were largely ignored until very recently. The assumption of continually growing populations persisted long after the actual trends had reversed. As a result, serious policy errors were made based on assumptions of permanently increasing demand for both housing and education. The resultant housing bubble has already collapsed. The education bubble has not yet burst, but it's quivering.

Though we've not yet seen the inevitable magazine covers trumpeting the depopulation apocalypse, there's been a sort of intellectual sea change. Decades of overpopulation horror stories are quietly being taken off the shelves, replaced by other cataclysmic boogeymen.

While Al Gore and few other stalwarts are still calling for population controls, policymakers increasingly recognize low fertility rates are the real problem facing the West. One meaningful example came in a 2000 UN report titled Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations? Though the United Nations has long supported efforts to lower birth rates, the authors admitted that the demographic transition threatens the West's economic health and the ability to care for elderly populations.

While US birth rates have dipped recently, as they usually do during periods of economic distress, there are reasons to believe that the United States may escape depopulation when the economy improves, based on recent population figures. Even so, new life-extension technologies will nevertheless result in a much-higher ration of older to younger people.

Thus far, the current debt and entitlement crises, domestic and international, are only a few consequences of increasing life spans. Without a major rethinking of society's core spending programs, the dynamic that created our already unsustainable debt loads is going to worsen as life spans head up the hockey stick.

To be clear, there is nothing about longer lives that is inherently adverse. Personally, I'm completely in favor of much longer health spans. Rather, the problem has been the failure to recognize and adjust to accelerating increases in life expectancies. This failure has led to ballooning expenditures and unsustainable debt. I should clarify and restate this thesis: Obsolete actuarial tables and expectations about the length and cost of retirement, especially on the medical cost front, are the proximate causes of the international fiscal meltdown.

Though many people portray the crisis as ideological, especially if their proposed solution is raising taxes, it's actually about math. And it's pretty simple math at that. The working young, who have always paid a disproportionate portion of the retirement and medical costs of the older and generally wealthier population, cannot bear that load in a demographically transforming world. Three basic solutions have been proposed.

Recently, in fact, the IMF published research that validates my position — that governments have utterly failed to adjust to accelerating increases in life spans. You can access the most-relevant data here, but the first few paragraphs should be required reading for anyone with pretensions of making good public policy.

Keep in mind that this study completely fails to recognize the accelerating aspect of increases in life spans. While it does point out, indirectly, that we are headed for a demographically driven financial catastrophe, it addresses only the current gap between actual needs and plans to meet those needs. In reality, new biotechnologies are going to catapult life spans so far beyond their current state; it is impossible to deal with the added costs of the aged without radical restructuring of expectations and institutions. A lot of the old assumptions and practices are going to perish. They have to, in fact, to allow society to adjust to very different conditions.

I've often pointed to the Great Depression as the era, historically, of the greatest innovation and investor opportunity. We are now in a period of far greater innovation and far greater investor opportunity. Yes, there's smoke in the air and fires in the distance, but the flames are clearing the fields for new growth.

Regards,

Patrick Cox,
for The Daily Reckoning

Catastrophically Successful Life Extension originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Recently Agora Financial released a video titled "What Causes Gas Price to Increase?".


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