saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Dave Skarica 4/28
- Is Silver Finally On Its Way To $40-$50?
- First Majestic Silver 4/27
- A Gold Standard?
- Weekly Market Movers: Apr. 30 - May 4
- DayTradeShow: Sunday Silver Report
- Student of the physical market - demand doesn't drive the gold price
- Morgan Sandquist: Finance in Denial – An Intervention
- Falsifying Bank Balance Sheets
- Sean Brodrick 4/27
- JPM Increases Silver Inventories 500% Overnight
- McEwen cites GATA's work on Bloomberg
- Suggesting that Gold is Set to Break New Highs
- Gold Demand Completely Unsustainable Without Higher Prices
- Silver Doctor: Gold To Silver Ratio Could Hit 5 to 1
- David Freedom: Why Gold and Silver Now
- Silver: What if you have none?
- Duane: The Big Silver Picture
- Silver Commitments of Traders for April 17-24
- Gold Commitments of Traders for April 17-24
| Posted: 29 Apr 2012 04:46 AM PDT |
| Is Silver Finally On Its Way To $40-$50? Posted: 29 Apr 2012 04:34 AM PDT By Avi Gilburt: On February 23, 2012, I provided advance warning of an impending decline in silver to the Seeking Alpha readership, and also provided targets for the decline. On February 28, 2012, we issued a suggestion to ElliottWaveTrader.net members to exit short-term metals positions, and for aggressive traders to even short the market, as the Elliott Wave pattern off the lows had completed. The very next day, on February 29, 2012, Ben Bernanke was in front of Congress providing his semi-annual report on the economy, and the precious metals market entered into what some termed a "flash crash." Some of our members made 500% returns in that one day. However, all Chairman Bernanke did in front of Congress was reiterate the Fed's position on the economy, which was clearly stated on January 25th. He did not provide the market with any news it did not have before, and he did not deviate Complete Story » |
| Posted: 29 Apr 2012 04:31 AM PDT Founder and CEO of First Majestic Silver, Keith Neumeyer discusses the company's pending acquisition and provides an update on the company's operations at La Parilla and Del Toro.
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| Posted: 29 Apr 2012 01:58 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: A Piece Of My Mind, by Jim Grant There are times, my friends Michael Lewitt and Dr. Lacy Hunt agreed today at lunch, when the study of economics is best informed by a sound knowledge of history. Indeed, Michael's son wants to follow his father into the finance world, and Michael is starting him off in history. I have spent hours listening to Lacy stroll through economic history, detailing the path of economic thought from Fisher to Kindleberger to Minsky. The last few days have been one of those times when I realized how much I don't know and how much more there is to learn. Not only Lacy and Michael are here in Florida, but a long list of bright minds to learn from. James Rickards, who has recently written the tour de force book Currency Wars, Harry Dent, Doug Casey, Porter Stansberry, Greg Weldon, and John Williams of Shadow Stats, with whom I look forward to meeting (do I have questions for him!). And so many more. And it is because I simply have to stop, listen and learn (and visit with friends) that this week I will kind of take the weekend off and instead send you one of the more remarkable essays I have read in a long time. It is a speech by Jim Grant to the New York Federal Reserve. The always erudite Grant takes us back in time to the very beginnings of the Federal Reserve, to show us how far we have strayed from the original intent. I really think you should read this. I have perused it several times and intend to read it yet again – and then some more. Grant argued for a return to the gold standard in the very halls of fiat money! It seems the New York Fed is asking some of its critics to come and speak. I have read some of the speeches, but this is the best so far for several reasons, not the least of which is that it contains some very funny lines. If you find yourself invited to the lion's den, Grant seems to think it is best to make fun of their teeth! You really do have to admire his courage. I think I would be a little concerned that I might be on the menu! Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Weekly Market Movers: Apr. 30 - May 4 Posted: 29 Apr 2012 01:55 AM PDT The US dollar retreated for a second week in a row, even though QE3 isn't exactly around the corner. The upcoming week is packed with key US events that will lead to the highly anticipated Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday. Was the weakness in jobs last month temporary or not? Also note expected rate decisions in the eurozone and Australia. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers ahead. According to the initial read, the US economy grew at a slow pace of only 2.2% in Q1 2012. Looking at the components of this figure, the rise of 2.9% in consumption makes the outcome a bit better than the headline figure, Also other data was weaker, but still mixed: US Pending Home Sales leaped by 4.1% suggesting a real improvement in the housing market, but the US labor market continues to disappoint for the third week with a higher than Complete Story » |
| DayTradeShow: Sunday Silver Report Posted: 29 Apr 2012 01:49 AM PDT The Sunday, April 29, 2012 silver report from Don @ daytradeshow. ~TVR |
| Student of the physical market - demand doesn't drive the gold price Posted: 28 Apr 2012 11:35 PM PDT Eric Sprott and David Baker has a new article out discussing central bank buying of gold and particularly China. I agree with his conclusion that this is an important demand side shift in the market but then Sprott plays it up way too much with statements like: "... there isn't a physical market on earth that can withstand that type of demand increase without higher prices over the long-run, and the gold market is no different. There are no sellers of physical gold that we know of who can satiate that scale of new demand ..." "Who is going to give up their gold purchases to make room for this scale of new demand? Where is the gold going to come from? We ask because we don't actually know." "We have written at length about the disconnect between the paper gold price and the physical gold market. If the demand changes stated above applied to any other market, the investing public would lose their minds." "The paper market for gold can continue its charade, but demand in the physical market will soon overpower it through sheer momentum - there's only so much physical to go around, and it appears that there are some very large buyers that are eager to take it." If Sprott and Baker "are students first and foremost of the physical market" then they surely are aware that the one thing which makes gold different from all the other physical markets on earth is its huge above ground stocks relative to new mine supply - 170,000 tonnes versus 2800 tonnes. This, I suggest, is a quite material fact and one which may be where "the gold is going to come from". Unlike "any other market", to which conventional supply/demand analysis can be applied, one cannot understand the gold market by just looking at annual supply/demand numbers when there is such a large overhang of stock. What drives the gold price I would therefore argue, is not so much demand, but to what extent existing holders of the 170,000t will withhold it from the market. It is actually supply - the withholding of supply - that matters most. If even a small fraction of these holders decide to sell, then that supply "will soon overpower" the physical market, China or no China. This is not a negative statement. The decade long gold bull market is a message that the existing holders are requiring higher and higher gold prices to let go of their gold and that the new holders are more likely to withhold it. The reason you don't see this approach to analysing the gold market is because there are only sketchy numbers on the flow of gold from existing holders to new holders - say ETF volumes, futures warehouses and scrap - and therefore its difficult if not impossible to get any handle on total real supply so analysts just avoid it. It doesn't mean you should. This unique feature of the gold market, which we can describe as "a stock overhang so large relative to new supply that in any other market would push the price to zero, but for some reason for gold it doesn't", is often referred to as monetary demand or gold as a monetary metal. When you see someone refer to gold as a commodity, it tells you they don't really understand the gold market and you need to exercise some caution with their statements. Gold is monetary in nature, with only a small commodity component. Further proof of this is the fact that central banks hold it as they generally hold only money as reserves. A lot more can be said on this but it is 8:30 on Sunday night. The other thing I find interesting about the Sprott piece, and what I react to negatively, is the use of emotive phrases like "on earth", "lose their minds", "charade" etc. Never a good thing when we are talking about investing and its a point Kid Dynamite has made, that Screwtape dissects, and which Erik Townsend makes quite forcefully in the Martenson/Harvey interview discussion. Speaking of that discussion and Sprott, for those interested in Sprott's silver delivery problem, Jeff Christian has weighed in with some interesting comments at the Martenson/Harvey interview. Warren James has updated Screwtape's post on the issue with the relevant material and it is a good summary and discussion of the "problem" for those new to it (or who want a refresher).  |
| Morgan Sandquist: Finance in Denial – An Intervention Posted: 28 Apr 2012 06:00 PM PDT Yves here. While I applaud the general thrust of this series, I have to take issue with one notion that this essay takes as a given that finance as currently constituted is "core to our economy" and is cautious about the costs and risks of intervention (even though it argues for that course of action). The case for decisive action is far stronger. The largest financial services firms have perpetrated the biggest transfer of wealth in history via the bailouts. They have gone unpunished for perpetrating the greatest consumer fraud in history, namely, the predatory lending in the subprime phase, the destruction of the integrity of title, and continuing abuses of court procedures. As we wrote in 2010:
This means the case for intervention is even more clear cut than this essay suggests. This is the third part in a four-part essay by Morgan Sandquist, a member of the Occupy Wall Street Alternative Banking Group. The previous post are In Denial and The Addiction. Cross posted from mathbabe
What are we to do with our banking industry, sitting there at the kitchen table in its underwear, drumming on the table with one hand and scratching its increasingly coarse chin with the other in an impossibly syncopated rhythm, letting fly a dizzying stream of assurances, justifications, and accusations, and generally spoiling for a fight that can only be avoided by complete and enthusiastic agreement with a narrative that can be very difficult to follow, let alone make sense of? Because this is our kitchen too, we have our legal and moral rights. We would be well within those rights to respond to its nonsense with far more coherent and sweeping condemnations of our own. Throwing the bum out in its underwear without so much as a cup of coffee, taking the children, and keeping our share of whatever might be left could certainly be justified. Though the sense of release offered by those responses is tempting, they're not likely to be of any practical use. We can't win an argument with an irrational person, and our share of an insolvent industry is likely to be very little–certainly not enough to feed the children. We have to recognize the hard truth of our implication in the banking industry and its addiction. This doesn't mean that we're responsible for the addiction and its consequences, or that we can make the choice not to continue that addiction on our own, but it does mean that the problem won't be constructively resolved without our efforts. To the extent that denial is about obscuring the connection between decisions and results, the most effective means of undermining denial is to clarify that connection, and the process of doing that is intervention. Whether or not its participants are thinking in these terms, Occupy Wall Street, to the extent that it can coherently be referred to as an entity, is in many respects functioning as an intervention into the banking industry's increasingly untenable addiction to money and debt. The movement's core values of transparency, sustainability, and nonviolence reflect the clarity, patience, and compassion needed for an effective intervention. This is not to say that all of the efforts directed at banks by the movement have been magnanimous or constructive. We have to remember the terrible suffering that has been inflicted upon so many and offer that clarity, patience, and compassion not just to the addict, but also to ourselves as intervenors and to everyone who has been affected by the banking industry. On the whole, I have been deeply heartened by how this movement has evolved over the last seven months, and though intervention isn't the easiest or most promising process, it's one I recognize and know can work (in stark contrast to political revolution). From the beginning, the Occupiers have shown a fearless, poignant spontaneity that's available only beyond the addiction-centered dynamic of denial, and the banking industry, its enablers, and others still within that dynamic of denial (which, to be fair, has included most of us at one point or another) have responded as would be expected. The determination and wisdom granted to those who see more clearly is profoundly threatening to those seeking to maintain denial, though of course they wouldn't be able to say quite why. The initial objections from the press that Occupy Wall Street was making no demands could be seen as an enabler's yearning for symptoms that can be isolated and addressed, without admitting to or addressing the addiction from which they arise. To keep calmly and patiently pointing to that underlying cause is simultaneously incomprehensible and maddening to those trapped within denial, and their responses have run the gamut from smug certainty that nothing could possibly be wrong to whistling past the graveyard to ill-conceived and unjustified violence. And the Occupiers' patience, diligence, and good nature in the face of that decidedly ill will is as textbook an illustration of the process of intervention as we're likely to see. It would be all too easy to remain passive in the face of our increasingly delusional, erratic, and combative banking industry. Surely there must be a more palatable alternative to undermining the continued functioning of the complex and highly evolved process that is the core of our economy. If we force it to rehabilitate, what will happen during that process? Will our economy collapse? When its rehabilitation is complete, will the banking industry be able to function as well as it once did? Or as the banking industry's enablers would have it: Any attempts to regulate the banking industry will only harm it, making it less effective to all of our detriment; these banks are too important a part of our economy to be allowed to fail; and bankers must continue to receive bonuses for banks to remain competitive. It's true that the banking industry has seized upon the process that's the basis of our economic survival, and that attempts to address the problems of the banking industry cannot be undertaken lightly. But it's also true that the banking industry has perverted that process, and that attempts to address that won't prevent our return to some fantasy of efficiency and plenty, though they might prevent the otherwise inevitable, tragic end of the current trajectory left unchecked. Whatever happens while the banking industry is rehabilitated is unlikely to be worse than what will happen as it continues to indulge in its addiction unaddressed, and it's unlikely to function any worse upon the completion of its rehabilitation than it is now. As Charles Eisenstein puts it, "any efforts we make today to 'raise bottom' for our collectively addicted civilization–any efforts we make to protect or reclaim social, natural, or spiritual capital–will both hasten and ameliorate the crisis." Once an addict has reached the point in his or her descent where an intervention is necessary, there's no realistic possibility of a return to some pre-addiction Golden Age. The apparent paradox that an addict's life must be destroyed to save it is, stated in those terms, false. The addict's life only appears to be as yet undestroyed through the lens of denial, and a future life without substance abuse or consequences is an illusion. But the more gently stated paradox that intervention will cause the addict suffering in the short term to help him or her in the long term is accurate. There are, however, deeper, more intractable paradoxes, and they are those of the psychology of addiction. The process of intervention is often crucial to an addict's entering rehab and beginning recovery, yet only the addict can decide to enter rehab. The addict must understand the damage he or she has done in order to stop using but mustn't succumb to shame, which would simply cause a retreat to the substance. The addict must admit that he or she is powerless over the substance and that life has become unmanageable, but mustn't surrender to hopelessness and despair, which would sap the considerable motivation needed in the process of recovery. An intervenor must do something, but there's nothing that can be done. There is no single act, no grand gesture or magic bullet, that can accomplish anything meaningful or lasting. Intervention is a long, unpredictable process requiring superhuman compassion and patience of everyone involved. Prior training or practice in commitment to a process without regard to the outcome of that process is invaluable. Yes, we can answer the banking industry's petulant invective in kind, but that won't fix the problem; the industry will become more defensive and reckless, and we probably wouldn't end up feeling any better anyway. Our encyclopedic harangue would be cogent, compelling, and convince our friends in the retelling, but no matter how loud we shout it over the banking industry's coffee cup into that sullen, bloodshot face, it will simply be brushed aside with the wave of a shaky hand and a hoarse grumble, or, worse, it will hit home, and rattled, the banking industry will glare at us and we'll know that tonight will bring another nihilistic binge of leverage and derivatives, and maybe this time there will be no tomorrow morning. The industry will tell us that we don't understand, that the pressure it's under is unimaginable, that life is grim, and that even though it can't fix that, it should be thanked for what it has accomplished, and that that's the best it can do. What more could we want? What more could it do? And we can only sigh and shake our head, because we know the simple, honest answer would just fall on deaf ears, and even if it were understood and accepted, the broken soul sitting across the table is in no shape to do anything constructive. The confrontations shown on television or in the movies, or that you have perhaps participated in yourself, are just part of the larger process of intervention, but they illustrate the themes that inform that larger process. Those themes can best be summarized as connection: the connection between the addict's choices and the suffering of the addict and those who are around him or her; the connection between addiction and the addict's choices; and the unbreakable, always available connection between the addict and the intervenors. Where denial seeks to divide and conquer, intervention seeks to unify and transcend. Intervention doesn't respond to denial on denial's terms, but rather reflects reality as it is. It doesn't engage in the petty distractions of accusations and recriminations, nor does it seek escape from the addict and his or her problems. Intervention shows the addict his or her choices as they're made, how those choices are determined by addiction, and the consequences that follow from those choices, but it also shows the redemption that's always available despite those choices and their consequences. Where denial is deceptive, impulsive, and selfish, intervention is clear, patient, and compassionate. Intervention finally presents the addict with an unavoidable choice between continued deluded suffering and real, sustainable sanity. The addict may or may not respond positively to that choice, but it must continually be presented on the same terms until the addict surrenders his or her denial. And to induce that surrender, it's crucial that the addict be offered an alternative to his or her addiction, whether it's formal rehab, a twelve-step program, methadone, or a recovery dog. It's important to recognize that even before the addict became physically or emotionally dependent on the substance, that substance met an otherwise unmet need, and leaving it unmet will lead only to relapse.
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| Falsifying Bank Balance Sheets Posted: 28 Apr 2012 04:00 PM PDT Gold University |
| Posted: 28 Apr 2012 03:15 PM PDT Sean Brodrick is Editor of Red Hot Global Resources and Global Resource Hunter at Weiss Research. Check him out at UncommonWisdomDaily. Sean discusses the gold stocks, junior producers and junior explorers as well as Gold and Silver. Great thoughts from Sean.
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| JPM Increases Silver Inventories 500% Overnight Posted: 28 Apr 2012 02:29 PM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: Something BIG is going down. First Blythe appeared on CNBC 2 weeks ago claiming that JP Morgan holds its metals positions on behalf of clients, then the CFTC moved 1 step closer to finally implementing position limits last week with their meeting discussing swaps, and today we have the kicker: JP Morgan adjusted 5 million ounces of silver into dealer (registered) vaults Thursday, increasing their registered inventories 500% OVERNIGHT!!! Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com |
| McEwen cites GATA's work on Bloomberg Posted: 28 Apr 2012 02:27 PM PDT
from gata.org: n its struggle against the gold price suppression scheme and surreptitious market rigging by governments generally, GATA long has failed to win support from major gold and silver mining companies, despite our frequent solicitation, perhaps because mining companies are so vulnerable to the scheme's instigators — governments, which control mining licenses, royalty requirements, and environmental regulations — and to the scheme's agents and profiteers — big investment houses, which control mine finance, mining being the most capital-intensive industry. But this lack of support doesn't mean that GATA isn't being watched closely by some major miners, as was suggested Friday when Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan interviewed McEwen Mining CEO and Goldcorp founder Rob McEwen on her program "Street Smart." Also interviewed was Philadelphia Trust Co. CEO Michael Crofton. The program's issue was whether the United States should return to a gold standard, and while the discussion was a bit disjointed, it made plain that the gold issue is a conflict between, on one hand, the international political power amassed by the United States and imposed through its issuance of the only world reserve currency, and, on the other hand, the desire for more limited government and free markets. Keep on reading @ gata.org |
| Suggesting that Gold is Set to Break New Highs Posted: 28 Apr 2012 02:26 PM PDT A Basket of Goodies to Suggest Gold is Set to Break New Highs from 24hgold.com: Over the past weekend, China announced that they would purchase Iranian oil through sale of gold beyond June 28 2012 in order to get around US sanctions that states no nation can sell oil in US Dollars This has profound implications going forward, as this will be the first time in nearly 70 years that the US Dollar as a reserve currency has been challenged. The article I penned back in 2003 titled "Whose Gonna Say Uncle" mentioned that block currencies will likely form due to localization of economies due to energy constrictions etc. The BRICS nations have primarily been the target of sabre rattling through the US government, so actions taken by China is likely to be conducted on a massive scale going forward as other nations seek better control over their own destiny. The BRICS nations are a force to be reckoned, with, from a financial and military perspective. Sabre rattling coming out of Washington is merely that…there is not much that they can do to save the US Dollar, as other nation blocks slowly attempt to create localized currencies. All major wars being fought at present are economically related as each country tries to stay afloat in an environment where an ever increasing amount of debt is created daily to prevent deflation (Note: This can only be put off for so long as the CFS cycle reaches its next downward turning point). Keep on reading @ 24hgold.com |
| Gold Demand Completely Unsustainable Without Higher Prices Posted: 28 Apr 2012 02:25 PM PDT Current Gold Demand Completely Unsustainable Without Sharply Higher Prices: Eric Sprott and David Franklin
from caseyresearch.com: It was a very quiet day both price and volume wise in gold on Planet Earth yesterday. The gold price didn't do much through all of Far East and London trading…and the tiny rally that gold had, didn't begin until 8:30 a.m. in Comex trading in New York. Over the next hour, the gold price ran up about ten bucks…and expect for the momentary high tick of the day at $1,669.00 spot around 10:40 a.m. Eastern…the gold price developed a slight downward bias for the remainder of the New York trading session. Gold closed at $1,662.80 spot…up $5.70 on the day. Net volume was a very light 88,000 contracts. The silver price action was more or less a variation of the gold price action…with the high of the day coming at 9:40 a.m. in New York…the same moment that gold's rally ran out of gas. The high tick at that point was $31.55 spot…and from that high, silver sold off about two bits going into the close of Friday trading. Silver closed at $31.27 spot…up 18 whole cents. As has been the case all week, gross volume in silver was immense, but net volume was tiny…around 17,000 contracts. Except for deliveries, May is now off the board…and the new front month for silver is July. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Silver Doctor: Gold To Silver Ratio Could Hit 5 to 1 Posted: 28 Apr 2012 02:10 PM PDT Alt Investors latest interview with The Doc at Silver Doctors. They discuss the following: from altinvestorshangout: ~TVR |
| David Freedom: Why Gold and Silver Now Posted: 28 Apr 2012 12:28 PM PDT Financial industry veteran, analyst, consultant, and author David Freedom discusses the ongoing collapse, why it's about to get considerably worse, why 2012 will require unparalleled stimulus, why it's time to act on a plan that includes hard assets, and Why Gold and Silver and Why Now. from thevictoryreport1: ~TVR |
| Silver: What if you have none? Posted: 28 Apr 2012 12:27 PM PDT How high can Ag's price ultimately go? Does it matter? from daytradeshow: ~TVR |
| Posted: 28 Apr 2012 07:18 AM PDT The latest silver documentary from silver guru Chris Duane of Don't Tread on Me. from truthnevertold: ~TVR |
| Silver Commitments of Traders for April 17-24 Posted: 28 Apr 2012 05:30 AM PDT Commercials added 3,821 long contracts and covered 323 shorts to end the week with 48.66% of all open interest -111,765,000 ounces net short, a huge decrease of over 20,000 ounces, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. |
| Gold Commitments of Traders for April 17-24 Posted: 28 Apr 2012 05:30 AM PDT Commercials bought 3,264 longs and covered a whopping -5,590 2,669 shorts to end the week with 58.83% of all open interest and now stand as a group at 16,723,700 ounces net short, a decrease of close to -1,000,000 net short from the previous week. |
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