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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

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Macro Discussion on FOMC Day

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 04:34 AM PDT

This is a portion of the 'Macro Discussion' segment of the April 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole.  

Here on FOMC day I thought it would be appropriate since the Fed has the power to kick it into gear by pretending to be the guardians of sound financial policy for just one more meeting.  

This could eventually drop markets to technical levels where the plan is activated for both my 'bottom feeder' preferred gold stock sector and for the broad markets.  

Alternatively, if they go 'weak' today on top of the 'Apple relief' pump, you will know their level of desperation or intolerance of anything resembling a bear phase here in this US election year.  In that case, bullish potentials could be activated sooner rather than later.  The Fed is well aware of how tenuous the recovery born of inflation and credit really is.

I 'think' they are not going to blink today, but then again what do I know?  Ben Bernanke is the academic genius with all the answers.  His esoteric formulas on gauging the deflation threat may be telling him something different.  Today should be interesting.

Macro Discussion

This chart shows the Au-SPX ratio, declining within a Wedge to support. Regardless of whether or not stock bulls have one more pump left in them, this is a bullish setup for a pro-gold stance, at least in relation to the stock market.

This is another sign that the macro growth spurt that coincided with ongoing government welfare directed toward the biggest banks (in the form of ZIRP and privileged first mover knowledge of coming Treasury yield policy moves) is setting up to fail. And when a Ponzied up construct fails, it can fail miserably.

As compared to last summer's momentum and the high-risk atmosphere it fomented, it is time now to be a gold bull and though the technicals remain unclear in the near term, a gold stock bull as well. Being a bull does not yet mean being 'all in' and gung ho committed. It just means for me personally, that I do not need to feel a little dirty being a gold bull as was the case last summer when you just knew the dumbest [money] on the planet were long gold right along with the rest of us who are committed to its big picture secular bull for all the reasons carried forward this last decade or so.

When those reasons change, so too will the orientation. But all we see now is a racket in Treasury bonds being played out to keep up an appearance of a sound economic backdrop with little inflationary concern as the Fed buys the long-term T bond market and sells the short-term one. This promotes the illusion that bond vigilantes are driving prudent policy on the short end with rising rates (Fed states intention of selling these bonds) and inflation concerns are contained on the long end (Fed commits to buying these bonds).

It's manipulation and I do not wear any kind of metallic hat when I write that. It is what it is and what the Fed itself has stated it would do; manipulate of the Treasury market.

How shallow. And yet asset management robots seem to buy it hook, line and sinker.  "Don't fight the Fed" is their automatic reply. Well here at NFTRH we are going to use that mantra, because I don't intend to fight the Fed. I intend to have the analysis remain in line with the Fed. The analysis states that the rigging of yields is a temporary thing designed to get everybody over to the right side of the boat before the next inflationary operation. We are now seeing signs that it is time to begin preparing for what comes next.

This is the current plan on what may be coming next:

  • Markets continue downward to a degree sufficient to put pressure on the Fed to ease (i.e. inflate, monetize in a supposedly 'sanitized' manner, debase the currency, flat out QE… what's the buzz phrase du jour?) in this election year. We note that this may not require too much downside market pressure since inflationary signals are already so well contained due to all the sanitizing done on yield curves to date.
  •  During the process, gold out performs all the positively correlated stuff (rising RPG) like stock markets and commodities. This could entail gold declining less than the other things, so do not focus solely on the nominal price. The process of a rising RPG feeds the bottom line fundamentals of at least decently run gold mining operations. This is because their product is outperforming cost drivers like energy commodities, as well as the stock market, which makes gold stocks more palatable to the investing public.
  • In this election year it would probably be unwise to start to think 'Armageddon 08' because with sentiment so well contained in precious metals and commodities, and inflation fears so well muted (again, masterful job working the yield curve by Ben and Co.) the play would be to pull out an epic inflationary macro 'kick save' (it is the NHL playoffs after all – let's go RANGERS!) that could eventually drive markets back up to at least test the March highs.
  • The 'inflation hounds', i.e. the gold stocks should be watched closely. We precious metals players are at Ground Zero to what lies ahead, so if all goes well, NFTRH will not only be positioned properly in that sector, but also have a signal to cast out into commodities, emerging and even developed markets before the general stock bulls momo their way in.
  • This is just a sketch! If you have been with NFTRH for a while you know that I operate to sketches or plans, and that the only reasonable tack for long-term success is to be open to the possibility of being wrong and having to adjust.  There are no real all-seers or gurus. We want to proceed in a lower profile manner, investigating the markets every step of the way to stay on the right side of things.
  • But I think I am right with the plan (1-4) above.  :-)

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Analyzing Tuesday's Noteworthy Insider Trades

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 03:57 AM PDT

By Ganaxi Small Cap Movers:

We present here two noteworthy insider buys and ten noteworthy insider sells from Tuesday's (April 24th, 2012) over 160 separate SEC Form 4 (insider trading) filings, as part of our daily and weekly coverage of insider trades. The filings are noteworthy based on the dollar amount sold, the number of insiders buying or selling, and based on whether the overall buying or selling represents a strong pick-up based on historical buying and selling in the stock (for more info on how to interpret insider trades, please refer to the end of this article):

Danaher Corp. (DHR): DHR is a manufacturer of water treatment and vapor recovery systems, fuel dispensers, digital imaging systems and test products. On Tuesday, CEO Lawrence Culp filed SEC Form 4 indicating that he exercised options to acquire 302,856 shares, and sold those and an additional 123,600 shares for $22.4 million, pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan. In


Complete Story »

Are Diamond Miners The Next Big Thing In Resource Investing?

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 03:30 AM PDT

By Simit Patel:

Since the turn of the century, the market for investing in companies that get stuff out of the ground - in other words, mining and drilling companies - has produced some outstanding returns. Consider:

  • Gold has gone from $250 to its current price of over $1,600
  • Silver has gone from $4 to over $30
  • Uranium went from $8 to over $130 in the uranium bubble of 2007
  • Rare earth miners like Molycorp (MCP) experienced an eight-fold appreciation in 2010-2011
  • And now, a graphite bubble appears to be emerging

So what's next?

Well, while I believe all of the aforementioned are still in bull markets and that the biggest and longest lasting mania will be in gold and select gold mining stocks, I think diamonds may be an area resource investors will increasingly benefit from focusing on. Here's a rundown of the case for higher diamond prices:

  • The sovereign debt crisis

Complete Story »

Some Solar Stocks Offer Great Opportunity But Not Yingli

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 03:03 AM PDT

alex shadunskyBy Alex Shadunsky:

Solar stocks have been crushed ever since the stock market meltdown in 2008. In late 2011 and early 2012 they have taken another hit as there has been a significant cutback in subsidies and overcapacity for the new demand equilibrium. However, there is some upside to this story. Just in an article last week, Bloomberg reported that solar companies will dominate clean-energy mergers. What this means for Yingli Green Energy (YGE) and other solar stocks is that they may be in play and that should set a floor for solar stocks, at least the ones in good financial positions.

The story for YGE doesn't look as promising as only one of the metrics suggests that the stock is undervalued. And that one metric is the trailing valuation, a valuation metric that for all solar stocks comes back as undervalued. There are definitely some values out there for solar companies, the


Complete Story »

ECB: gold and gold receivables remain unchanged

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 02:22 AM PDT

Gold Stocks: Where Is The Bottom?

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 02:10 AM PDT

from news.goldseek.com:

Gold and silver mining stocks have sold off by roughly 30% from their 52-week highs based on the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) and by roughly 32% based on the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI). In comparison, gold is down approximately 14% from its nominal all time high in 2011 while silver is down approximately 37%.

The XAU / Gold ratio suggests that gold and silver miners are oversold. In fact, the shares of some companies are trading below their net asset values.

Metal Price Trends
Despite having come down from their 2011 highs, gold and silver prices have shown stubborn resistance below $1650 for gold and below $30 for silver. When prices have broken through these levels, the metals have rebounded. Unlike the breakdown in gold and silver prices after the 1980 mania, gold and silver prices are currently stabilizing at lower levels.

Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com

The Hierarchy of Collapse

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 01:40 AM PDT

Andy Hoffman

David Quintieri: Making money and preserving wealth

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 01:12 AM PDT

David Quintieri, author of The Money GPS (http://themoneygps.com/), and the GoldMoney Foundation's Alasdair Macleod talk about the state of the economy and how to make money in this environment by using the four asset classes: paper assets, commodities/precious metals, real estate and businesses.

from goldmoneynews:

Quintieri states that governments have put themselves in a tight spot in which money printing is their only option. They discuss how low interest rates lead to market distortions, boom and bust cycles and the destruction of savings. The Money GPS was written to help people navigate this environment and empower them in terms of personal finance.

In his view, market volatility will persist. If asset prices start falling again, he thinks that the Fed will step in with another round of QE. Quintieri believes that gold and silver should be held for the foreseeable future, as they have a good performance record during periods of crises. He points out the benefit of owning physical metal, as opposed to "paper gold" products. Mining investments should be diversified, so as to spread risk.

Quintieri sees the staggering amount of derivatives — $1.5 quadrillion outstanding in 2011 according to the Bank for International Settlements — as the biggest risk facing the global economy. This mammoth sum compares with total world GDP of "just" $63 trillion.

This video podcast was recorded on April 22 2012.

~TVR

Goldman Sachs Gold ETF in India Sees 11 Fold Surge in Volume

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 01:05 AM PDT

from goldcore.com:

Gold has been in an incredibly tight range – hovering around the $1,640/oz level this morning as markets await the US Federal Reserve's decision regarding maintaining ultra loose monetary policy and further quantitative easing (QE3).

The Fed is due to release a statement outlining its views on policy and the economy at about 1630 GMT, followed by a news conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The Fed is expected to reiterate its stance to keep U.S. interest rates near zero over the next two years, which will continue to make gold an attractive inflation hedging asset.

Bullion struck its 2012 high around $1,790/oz in late February after the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero until at least the end of 2014.

Gold's most recent sell off was precipitated on February 29th after heavy selling was seen when Bernanke suggesting that there would be no more QE.

The renewed almost exclusive focus on gold in US dollar terms in recent weeks is obscuring the fact that gold appears to have corrected and consolidated in other major currencies since August 2011.

Keep on reading @ goldcore.com

MF Global: The Untold Story The Next Lehman

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 01:01 AM PDT

from alternet.org:

There are plenty of lessons to be learned from MF Global, all of which we can count on Congress to ignore at the behest of Wall Street money until the next financial crisis.

Only on Wall Street can you bankrupt a company; misplace $1.6 billion of customers' money; lose 75 percent of shareholders' money in two weeks; speed dial a high priced criminal attorney and get a court to authorize the payment of your multi-million dollar legal tab from the failed company's insurance policies; have regulators waive your requirements to take licensing exams required to work in the securities and commodities industry; have your Board of Directors waive your loyalty to the firm; run a bucket shop out of the UK; and still have the word "Honorable" affixed to your name in a Congressional investigations hearing.

This is not a flashback to the rotting financial carcasses of 2008. This putrid saga has been playing out in five Congressional hearings since December with the next episode scheduled for Tuesday, April 24, before the Senate Banking Committee under the auspicious title: "The Collapse of MF Global: Lessons Learned and Policy Implications." (The title might more appropriately be, "MF Global: Lessons Never Learned and Policy Implications of a Wild West Financial System Just One TradeAway from the Next Taxpayer Bailout.")

Keep on reading @ alternet.org

A plea for sanity

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 12:51 AM PDT

from goldmoney.com:

An article by Professor Lew Spellman has caught the attention of the sharp-eyed, and may indeed be important. Spellman, who in the past has been an economist at the Fed and served as an assistant to the Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors, makes the point that gold is quietly becoming a core banking asset for collateral purposes, at a time when the alternative, sovereign obligations, is becoming dangerously unstable as a bedrock of value. This is an establishment economist suggesting that gold is being chosen by markets as an alternative to money issued by government diktat.

He even suggests that ownership of gold would allow banks to increase leverage of their balance sheets. The London Bullion Market has been lobbying for this for the last six months, and at government level the Chinese have long pressed for gold to have a monetary role on a supra-national basis. Powerful forces recognise the benefits, and if the Basel Committee which is considering the matter agrees to banks using gold as Tier 1 Capital, it would create substantial demand for physical bullion, for any such gold would have to be physically held on an allocated basis.

Anyone who understands gold's historic role will grasp the importance of the argument behind extra bank leverage. Direct ownership of bullion by a bank is superior to holding the fiat money issued by a central bank. It should increase confidence in any bank and the system as a whole. Given relative values, bank purchases of bullion will drive the value of gold as Tier 1 Capital up relative to other qualifying assets, increasing its desirability for regulatory purposes further without a gold-owning bank doing anything.

Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com

SHFE paves the way for silver futures

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 12:34 AM PDT

This is a few days ol,d but still important news.

That's SHFE, not SHTF


SHFE paves the way for silver futures
Global Times | April 18, 2012 22:08
By Wang Fei'er in Shanghai

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), China's largest market for commodities, issued a draft Tuesday, outlining the upcoming launch of the exchange's silver contract, China Securities Journal reported Wednesday.

The launch of silver futures trading on the SHFE will help silver-related companies hedge against silver fluctuations in the world market, give China more sway in determining global silver prices, and offer another investment option for the nation's small investors, experts told the Global Times.

China's miners, manufacturers, retailers and other enterprises, which rely on the precious metal, will undoubtedly welcome the start of domestic silver futures trading, which will allow them to hedge against fluctuating global silver prices, Li Ning, a gold analyst from Shanghai Cifco Futures, told the Global Times.

China's silver producers would likely short sell the contract in order to offset financial losses if global silver prices slump, while manufacturers will naturally turn to holding long positions in the future if concerns about rising silver prices emerge, Li explained.

The daily trading volume of delayed silver product at the Shanghai Gold Exchange skyrocketed by nearly 300 percent between September 2008 and September 2011, according to a report from Everbright Futures Co Ltd.

The country's high trading volume and booming demand for silver - which is a key component in high-end electronics, solar panels and luxury items - make this the perfect time to start silver futures trading in China, Li added.

The launch of domestic silver futures trading would also attract small investors with limited capital to the metal market, Sun Yonggang, a metal analyst from Everbright Futures Co Ltd, told the Global Times.

Unlike the gold futures contract, which is priced beyond the reach of many small investors, investing in silver futures could require a cash outlay of as little as 6,000 yuan ($951.97), Sun calculated based on the draft.

The SHFE's draft sets the minimum margin rate of silver futures contract at 7 percent, and its trading unit at 30 kilograms.

There's Gold (& Platinum Galore) in Them Thar...Stars!

Posted: 25 Apr 2012 12:07 AM PDT

Gold's last/best chance to try for the $1,650 target ahead of the Fed today comes from a lower-than-expected US durable goods orders figure and the flicker of a QE3 hope that such a metric might give rise to among speculators.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/25/12

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 11:44 PM PDT

Markets flat ahead of the FOMC meeting this afternoon. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but the market will watch for any tone change in language. Maybe the Fed will say it is worried about European contagion and put QE3 back on the table, or they may say the US economy although not great is moving along and no further stimulus is needed. The market is desperately waiting for a solid signal to give it direction. Probably wont come today, but safer to be flat ahead of the meeting, than second guess the outcome.

Goldman Sachs Gold ETF in India Sees 11 Fold Surge

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 11:36 PM PDT

Gold has been in an incredibly tight range – hovering around the $1,640/oz level this morning as markets await the US Federal Reserve's decision regarding maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy and further quantitative easing (QE3).

PMs Vulnerable if FOMC Outcome Dents QE3 Bets

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 11:06 PM PDT

If a rosy view is seen emerging among Fed policymakers, that ought to prove supportive for growth-geared commodities including crude oil and copper. Gold and silver prices are likely to suffer.

Is Oil the New Gold?

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 10:14 PM PDT

The dollar's huge fluctuations over the past five years are scaring investors and governments alike. That's why the interest in gold has shot up so fast in the past five years, and why gold prices have climbed just as quickly.

Asia Scoops-Up And Mines Gold With Both Hands; They Are Not Sellers

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:35 PM PDT

Western governments are buying it on the sly after periodically driving the prices down to get in on the cheap. Meanwhile, western gold and silver paper traders have been chopped-up in volatility. Avoid choppy trades and foolish selling. There are ways to circumvent this kind of trading action.

"Rising incomes in China mean that in addition to greater purchasing power for gold jewellery, people are increasingly turning to the precious metal as an investment, particularly given the weakness of the country's property sector." -Photo: EPA

"Gold crash on Fed tightening and Euro salvation looks premature." "Until the rising reserve powers of Asia, Russia and the Gulf regain trust in the shattered credibility of the world's two great fiat currencies – if they ever do – gold is unlikely to crash far or, remain in the doldrums for long. 'Peak gold' cements the price floor in any case." –Ambrose Evans-Pritchard The Telegraph

"The industry body said 770 tons of gold were bought in China last year, 20% more than in 2010. That left the world's second biggest economy trailing only India, with 933 tons bought. Rising incomes in China mean that in addition to greater purchasing power for gold jewellery, people are increasingly turning to the precious metal as an investment, particularly given the weakness of the country's property sector. Worldwide demand for gold last year hit 4,067 tons, worth an estimated $205.5bn – the first time the figure has passed the $200bn mark. Investment buying drove the rise, with demand up 5% on the previous year."

'Germany and Switzerland were the main drivers of growth in gold demand in Europe, as the continued Euro-zone turmoil saw people turning to the metal as a store for their wealth. Central banks remained net buyers of the metal. Their purchases rose from 77 tons in 2010 to 440 tons, seen as reflecting a need to protect national wealth. In terms of the cultural importance of gold, India, followed by China, remained the yellow metal's heartlands, together accounting for 55% of global demand for gold jewellery last year. Marcus Grubb, a managing director at the World Gold Council, said: "What we can see from these 2011 figures is that there were two main factors driving the results: Asian growth and optimism on the one hand, and Western desire to protect assets against uncertainty on the other. Looking particularly at Asia, there was a major boost to the overall figures from an increase in Chinese demand, a trend that we see continuing." -Emma Rowley, 2-16-12 The Telegraph


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Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan Raised Gold Reserves in March

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:19 PM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As has been the case for some time now, the gold price didn't do a lot during the Far East trading session on Tuesday...and was down about four dollars when London opened at 8:00 a.m. BST.  From the open, the gold price rallied slowly but surely...and spiked right at the London p.m. gold fix.  From that spike high of the day [$1,650.50 spot] the gold price then got sold down immediately...and from noon onwards in New York, gold traded flat into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time.

Gold closed at $1,641.50 spot...down $3.20 on the day.  Net volume was very light...around 98,000 contracts.

Silver's price path was pretty much the same as gold's...except for the fact that the sell off after the London p.m. gold fix took the silver price down into negative territory on the day.  The high price tick was $31.25 spot.

Silver closed at $30.83 spot...down 4 cents from Monday's close...and well off its spike high price at the fix.  Gross volume was monstrous, but once all the spreads/roll-overs out of the May contract were subtracted, the volume dropped down to a net 22,000 contracts, which is very light.

The dollar index opened around the 79.35 mark in early morning trading in the Far East...and struggled to maintain that right up until minutes before 9:00 a.m. in New York.  Then, in the space of an hour, the dollar index fell 25 basis points...with its low price tick coming at precisely 10:00 a.m. in New York.  Gold and silver's high tick of the day came about ten minutes after that.

From there, the dollar index gained back a bit of its decline in rather erratic fashion...and finished down about 15 basis points on the day.

The gold stocks didn't rally much going into the London p.m. gold fix...and quickly got sold off after that.  From there they chopped around the unchanged mark for the rest of the Wednesday trading day...and the HUI finished flat, showing no change...0.00%...on the day.

The silver stocks finished mixed...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up/down a tiny 0.41%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report was another quiet one...as it will probably be for the rest of the April delivery month...as only 25 gold and 16 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV...and the U.S. Mint didn't have a sales report, either.

The Zürcher Kantonalbank had an updated report on their gold and silver ETFs at the end of trading last Friday.  Their gold ETF showed a small decline of 2,586 troy ounces...and their silver ETF showed a decline of only 62,761 ounces.

Monday was pretty quiet over at the Comex-approved depositories as well.  They reported receiving only 38,009 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 3,002 ounces out the door.

I have the usual number of stories for a mid-week column...and I hope you have time to go through all of them.

It will be interesting to hear what "Helicopter" Ben has to say for himself...and how the precious metal markets will react, or be allowed to react.
Jim Sinclair: Shorts Now Trapped and Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000. The Shanghai Futures Exchange paves the way for silver futures. Richard Russell: After the calm comes the storm.

¤ Critical Reads

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SEC Officially Files Charges Against Egan-Jones

U.S. securities regulators charged credit-rating firm Egan-Jones and its president Sean Egan on Tuesday with making material misrepresentations to the agency in its 2008 regulatory application to rate asset-backed and government securities.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's administrative charges, which were first reported by Reuters last week after a closed-door SEC meeting, also include allegations of record-keeping and conflict of interest violations.

Lawyers for Egan-Jones have previously said they plan to vigorously defend itself against the SEC's lawsuit.

On Monday Sean Egan told reporters what he had told CNBC Thursday, that the SEC's case will not affect the independence of the company's ratings.

This 4-paragraph story was posted over at the cnbc.com website yesterday...and you just read them all.  The link to the hard copy is here...and I thank West Virginia Reader Elliot Simon for sending it.

'Real' trading in U.S. markets is down to 16 percent; the rest is machines

Trading by "real" investors is taking up the smallest share of US stock market volumes in more than a decade, according to a recent study.

The findings highlight how US trading activity is increasingly being fuelled by fast turnover of shares by independent firms and the market-making desks of brokerages, many using high-frequency trading engines.

The proportion of US trading activity represented by buy and sell orders from mutual funds, hedge funds, pensions, and brokerages, referred to as "real money" or institutional investors, accounted for just 16 per cent of total market volume in the form of buying, and 13 per cent via selling in the final quarter of last year, according to analysis by Morgan Stanley's Quantitative and Derivative Strategies group.

This Financial Times story was posted in the clear in this GATA release late last night...and it's a must read for sure.  The link is here.

Bud Conrad: Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up

Jim Puplava over at financialsense.com interviewed Casey Research's own Bud Conrad. Bud sees large and growing demands for credit from the federal government, which will require the Fed to continue to create a large and growing supply. This will lead to debasement of the dollar, higher inflation, and higher interest rates, all long-term negatives for the US economy. As government debt grows, the interest to be paid grows as well. If rates rise, the scenario becomes much worse.

This audio interview runs a hair over 18 minutes...and is certainly worth your time if you have it.  The link is here.

Jim Rogers: Something Is Wrong In The Stock Market And You Better Be Worried

Commodities guru Jim Rogers was on Fox Business News yesterday afternoon predicting disaster for 2013.

"First of all, we have tax increases January 1," warned Rogers. "Secondly, we've had recession every four to six years...  Next year, it's four to six years."

"Now I've been investing for a long time and I have noticed when good news comes out and stocks go down, something's wrong. So you better be worried," warned Rogers.  "I don't know what's wrong.  But I know we've had a great first quarter.  One of the best first quarters in history.  And now good news is coming out and stocks are going down."

This video interview with Jim Rogers is imbedded in this story that was posted at the businessinsider.com website yesterday...and I thank reader Donald Sinclair for bringing it to my attention.  The link is here.

Marc Faber Discusses Imminent Market Crash, a Recession in China, Says Fiscal Condition of US a 'Catastrophe'

This 6:28 minute video is imbedded in a Mike Shedlock article on this subject that was posted over at the safehaven.com website yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first story of the day.  The link is here.

Nightmare week for Angela Merkel as austerity bloc crumbles

Europe's political centre is starting to crumble, replicating the pattern of the early 1930s as the crisis ground into its third year under a similar mix of fiscal and monetary contraction.

Elected governments have already been swept away - or replaced by EU technocrats without a vote, indeed to prevent a vote - in every eurozone state where unemployment has reached double-digits: Spain (23.6pc), Greece (21pc), Portugal (15pc), Ireland (14.7pc) and Slovakia (14pc).

The political carnage has been striking. Ireland's Fianna Foil, creator of the Irish free state, has lost every seat in Dublin. Greece's Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) - torch-bearers of Greek democracy since the Colonels - has fallen to 14pc in the polls and faces ruin next month.

This week the tornado has smashed into the core, bringing down Holland's government and probably the French leader Nicolas Sarkozy as well in a cacophony of anti-EU diatribes.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard blog was posted in The Telegraph yesterday evening...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day.  The link to this very worthwhile read is here.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel defends austerity in face of open rebellion in Europe

In a rare concession, the German Chancellor admitted that austerity alone would not solve the crisis but she insisted that the wave of political opposition to fiscal discipline was wrong.

"We're not saying that saving solves all problems," Ms Merkel said at a conference in Berlin. "[But] you can't spend more than you take in. You can't live your whole life this way. Everybody knows this."

Mark Rutte, the deposed Dutch prime minister, made a passionate plea to politicians to stick to his proposed budget cuts. "The problems are serious, the economy is stalling, employment is under pressure and government debt is growing faster than the Netherlands can afford," he said. "Those are the facts and nobody can run away from them. I'm standing here without pretences, it is up to parliament and the voters."

This is another item that was posted in The Telegraph yesterday evening...and is Roy Stephens third story in a row.  The link is here.

Going Dutch: The Netherlands to abandon the euro?

The Dutch government has collapsed after failing to win coalition support for its austerity plans. Elections are set to be held in September and analysts say one of the EU's strongest economies may bring the unified currency's demise

Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a strong advocate of the Euro, has been trying to get the Parliament to adopt 14-16 billion euros worth of austerity cuts. The deficit slashing is aimed at getting the Dutch budget deficit under the three per cent of deficit to GDP limit established by the new EU fiscal pact.

Rutte was unable to win the support of the far-right Freedom Party, whose leader Geert Welders said his country should not fund the new European Stability Mechanism and, at the same time, be expected to implement Brussels' budget deficit caps.

"We don't want to cut spending by 14 billion euros and at the same time transfer billions of euros to Brussels for the horrible ESM emergency fund and the weak Greeks," Welders noted.

This story was filed from somewhere in Europe in the wee hours of this morning...and is Roy's fourth offering in a row.  It's posted over at the Russian Times...and the link is here.

La Liga debt crisis casts a shadow over on-pitch domination

This past Saturday, all eyes were on El Clasico, the showpiece event of world club football. And what an occasion it was, with the league title up for grabs. However, all is not as it seems in La Liga.

Although it boasts some of the world's biggest stars in Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, Spanish football's debt crisis has put the league on course for economic ruin.

Both Barcelona and Real Madrid have reached the Champions League semi-finals (although both take a one-goal deficit into the second legs), and could meet in the final on May 19 in Munich. Domestic rivals Atletico Madrid, Valencia and Athletic Bilbao are in the Europa League semi-finals.

Real Madrid, which lead the Spanish league by four points, has debts of €589m (£477m), while Barcelona's stands at €578m (£473m) and Atletico's is €514m (£420m). Valencia have sold star players like David Villa, David Silva and Juan Mata to drop its own debt to €382m (£312m).

If you're a football fan [what we call soccer here in North America] this is a must read...and I thank reader Graeme Guthrie for sending me this story yesterday, which was posted over at the dailymail.co.uk website last Thursday.  The link is here.

Three King World News Blogs

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:19 PM PDT

The first blog is from Jim Sinclair...and Eric King has headlined it "Shorts Now Trapped and Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000".  The second blog is with Caesar Bryan...and it's entitled "Asia to Deploy Stunning and Massive QE".  The third blog with Richard Russell was posted on the KWN website shortly after midnight last night.  It's headlined "read more

An Open Letter to President Obama

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:19 PM PDT

Dear Mr. President,

It seems to me that you opened up a very large can of worms last week when you sought to combat price manipulation in the energy markets. Within that now-opened can, I believe you will find one worm made of gold and another cast in silver.

Because I prefer fair markets to the perpetually rigged variety, I do applaud the aspect of your proposal that would combat price-manipulating behavior in the futures markets by the hand of "an irresponsible few." I find it highly questionable, however, that you would limit the scope of such efforts exclusively to the energy markets, while turning a blind eye to similar abuses in other segments of the futures markets.

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SHFE paves the way for silver futures

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:19 PM PDT

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), China's largest market for commodities, issued a draft Tuesday, outlining the upcoming launch of the exchange's silver contract, China Securities Journal reported Wednesday.

The launch of silver futures trading on the SHFE will help silver-related companies hedge against silver fluctuations in the world market, give China more sway in determining global silver prices, and offer another investment option for the nation's small investors, experts told the Global Times.

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Good news for gold bulls - it could be time to start buying again

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:19 PM PDT

The website www.sharelynx.com is a treasure trove of weird and wonderful charts, most of them gold-related.

It's the only site I know where you can find the historical ratio of gold-to-milk prices, for example. Or where you can look at a measure of sentiment in the gold market from, say, 1983.

Nick Laird, who runs the site, pinged me an e-mail last week, which read: "This must be the low. I have rarely seen it so quiet. Normally I get at least a couple of visitors a day looking for a trial of my website. The last ten days, I've had two people asking".

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Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:03 PM PDT

from stltoday.com:

When the dreaded hyperinflation arrives, the Missouri House wants Missourians to be ready.
Last week, the legislative body passed the Missouri Sound Money Act of 2012, which declares U.S. gold and silver coins to be legal tender in the state.
That sounds a bit odd, especially since the federal government already recognizes its bullion coins as legal tender. It's just that nobody's going to pull out a $50 gold piece to pay for snacks at QuikTrip, because the ounce of gold in the coin is really worth $1,600.
Backers of the Sound Money Act envision a system in which you could deposit gold and silver coins in a vault and get a debit card tied to their metal value. If the Federal Reserve debases the value of the dollar – a favorite prediction among the gold-bug set – gold and silver would rise in value, and prescient Missourians could brag about their enhanced purchasing power.
Utah passed a legal-tender law last year, and South Carolina's legislature is considering one this year.
Rich Danker, economics director of conservative lobbying group American Principles in Action, said a couple of institutions in Utah are working to create the gold debit-card system. Until that's in place, sound-money advocates have to spend out of bank accounts denominated in dollars, just like the rest of us.

Keep on reading @ stltoday.com

Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 25 2012

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT

$1.6 billion in missing MF Global funds traced

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 08:58 PM PDT

from money.cnn.com:

Investigators probing the collapse of bankrupt brokerage MF Global said Tuesday that they have located the $1.6 billion in customer money that had gone missing from the firm.
But just how much of those funds can be returned to the firm's clients, and who will be held responsible for their misappropriation, remains to be seen.

James Giddens, the trustee overseeing the liquidation of MF Global Inc, told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that his team's analysis of how the money went missing "is substantially concluded."
"We can trace where the cash and securities in the firm went, and that we've done," Giddens said.

MF Global failed last year after its disclosure of billions of dollars worth of bets on risky European debt sparked a panic among investors. About $105 billion in cash left the firm in its last week, Giddens said, as clients withdrew their funds and trading partners called for increased margin payments, leaving the firm scrambling to make good on its obligations.
It has since emerged that MF Global tapped customer funds for its own use during this crisis and failed to replace them, in violation of industry rules.

Keep on reading @ money.cnn.com

IMF: Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 08:56 PM PDT

from bloomberg.com:

Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal, International Monetary Fund data show.
Mexico raised its reserves to 122.6 tons last month when gold averaged $1,676.67 an ounce, data on the IMF's website showed. Turkey added 11.5 tons, Kazakhstan 4.3 tons, Ukraine 1.2 tons, Tajikistan 0.4 ton, and Belarus 0.1 ton, according to the IMF. The data shows Russia boosted gold reserves by about 16.5 tons after its central bank said on April 20 they were higher. The Czech Republic reduced bullion reserves by 0.1 ton.
Central banks are expanding reserves after the metal climbed the past 11 years and holdings in exchange-traded products are about 0.7 percent below last month's all-time high. The banks added 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades, and may buy a similar amount in 2012, the London-based World Gold Council estimates. Gold reached a record $1,921.15 in September.

Keep on reading @ bloomberg.com

Rick Rule: Golden Opportunities

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 08:43 PM PDT

Rick Rule: Why gold stocks have underperformed.. they are but golden opportunities.

From Jim Puplava and Financial Sense:

Jim is pleased to welcome back Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investments Ltd. Rick discusses the reasons behind the correction in the gold market, why selected gold stocks represent a golden opportunity, as well as the ideal junior take-out candidate.

Rick has dedicated his entire life to all aspects of the natural resource industry. His contacts and knowledge of this market are unmatched. At Global he leads a team that features professionals trained in resource related disciplines, such as geology and engineering, who work together to evaluate investment opportunities. Founder of Global Resource Investments, Ltd. Rick began his career in the securities business in 1974, and has been principally involved in natural resource security investments ever since. He is a leading American retail broker specializing in mining, energy, water utilities, forest products and agriculture.

Much More @ FinancialSense.com 

Steve Keen: “All Ponzi Schemes Collapse”

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 08:41 PM PDT

Vincent Browne talking to Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the financial crisis we are in now.

from trident01101:

~TVR

Gold Stocks Continue to Underperform Gold

Posted: 24 Apr 2012 07:54 PM PDT

Despite general stock markets approaching pre-crisis highs and gold holding up quite well so far, the HUI index has dropped quite substantially. The combination of weak performance of HUI stocks and the relatively "strong" action of gold, caused the index to underperform.

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