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- Jim Wyckoff: Precious Metals
- Iron Ron Rocks CNBC
- Gold Stocks Continue to Underperform Gold Bullion
- Weighing the Evidence of Oil & Gold Stocks
- Surprise Second-Half Gold Rally Ahead
- Bullion Refiners “Stocking Up” for Europe
- Silver: Bearish pattern of the day
- Chart Appendix for April 21, 2012 (Video) GGR
- Ron Paul Versus The Fed
- The Great Western Revenue Crisis, Part I
- When Should I Be Bullish On Gold?
- Gold and Silver Enter Period of Low Volatility and Disinterest
- Gold, Stocks and Euro All Down after China Manufacturing News, Bullion Refiners “Stocking Up” for Europe but Concerns Over Liquidity “Cap Upside” for Gold
- Europe’s Lunatics Rise
- Gold Prices Hover, Trading Sluggish Ahead of Fed Meeting
- Italy police seize $5 billion of U.S. securities
- Two views on gold – both positive but….
- The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold
- Some Miner & Not-So-Minor Issues
- Bob Chapman: What got me involved in Gold and Silver
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/23/12
- Gold Bullion Falls with Stocks after Chinese Output Data
- How long until silver breaks out?
- 8 Key Charts, Gold, Fed & The Big Picture
- European Splintering Escalates
- Dutch Government on Verge of Collapse After Anti-EU Lawmaker Torpedoed Seven Weeks of Austerity Talks
- USA Single Family Housing Industry Smashed For A Decade
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 23 2012
- Gold/Platinum Ratio & the Coming Depression
- Indicators Predict Gold Trend to Continue: John LaForge
| Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:43 AM PDT Jim Wyckoff talks precious metals with Daniella Cambone on Kitco News. ~TVR | |
| Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:32 AM PDT Ron Paul said Monday he has no plans to end his campaign and is staying in the race since "maybe somebody will stumble" on the way to the convention. Paul told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that even if Mitt Romney secures the delegates needed for the nomination, he would likely continue his campaign "in a modified way." "You don't quit because you happen to be behind," he said. "You want to see how you do. And who knows? Maybe somebody will stumble." When asked whether he believed Romney was a "flawed candidate," Paul replied, "Well, I think the system is flawed." Below: Part One Part Two | |
| Gold Stocks Continue to Underperform Gold Bullion Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:29 AM PDT
from marketoracle.co.uk: I have written (and warned my readers) several times about the weak performance of the HUI index compared to the price of Gold. Keep on reading @ marketoracle.co.uk | |
| Weighing the Evidence of Oil & Gold Stocks Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:26 AM PDT The MSCI Emerging Markets and the S&P 500 indices have increased double digits since the beginning of the year. Investors should be thrilled, but instead of cheers, the only sounds the markets are hearing are crickets. Many have been asking, where are the investors? | |
| Surprise Second-Half Gold Rally Ahead Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:23 AM PDT
from beaconequity.com: he man whose passion for urging investors to load up on gold bullion since the Fed tipped its monetary policy hand following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, has jumped a notch in intensity in his latest update for gold investors. Stephen Leeb, economist and best-selling author, told King World News Washington lawmakers and Federal Reserve Board of Governors have been so reckless with their handling of U.S. budget deficits and monetary policy in response to the collapse of the global credit Ponzi scheme that he wants to move to Canada before the crisis in Europe blows up—because, after all, a repeat of the past will most likely strike again. Sign-up for my 100% FREE Alerts It was Europe that triggered the greatest economic depression in U.S. history—the Global Depression of 1873-96. Then it was the U.S.'s turn to return the favor during the decade of the 1930s following the 1929 U.S. stock market crash which quickly spread to London, Paris and across the rest of continental Europe. Keep on reading @ beaconequity.com | |
| Bullion Refiners “Stocking Up” for Europe Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:22 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: PRICES TO buy gold bullion on the wholesale market dropped to $1630 an ounce during Monday morning's London session – a 2.3% drop from where they started the month – while stock markets and industrial commodities also traded lower following the release of preliminary Chinese manufacturing data. "Gold remains in a short-term bear channel," say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "We would expect a test of support from the long-term uptrend…[which] comes in around $1600." Silver bullion dropped to near 3-month lows, hitting $31.09 per ounce ahead of the US session. European stock markets sold off heavily, with the UK's FTSE down 1.7% by lunchtime, and Germany's DAX off 2.7%. Activity in China's manufacturing sector has continued to contract this month, according to data published Monday. The HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI) for this month came in at 49.1 – up from 48.3 for March (a figure below 50 indicates sector contraction). Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com | |
| Silver: Bearish pattern of the day Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:19 AM PDT
from silverseek.com: Silver has formed a "Descending Triangle" on the daily chart. A descending triangle shows decreasing demand and an increase in supply with each rally off of a fixed level of horizontal support. When the demand at that level has been depleted, the floor underneath can collapse with new supply (those who were long in the current open interest throwing in the towel) and old supply (the previous sellers piling it on to make it hurt good). We are below the "High Volume Node" on the daily and the 1 hour chart. Putting on a a long or a short position right here with my methodology is playing with fire. False breakdowns are the strongest signals, but I wouldn't count on it happening. It will take strong hands to put Silver back up, which could be a very bullish signal, but I would first wait and then react. The path of least resistance will be lower on a breakdown and my trade plan will only be to the short side AFTER the breakdown until the auction has changed. Being early or anticipating a move before there is a confirming signal is a good way to lose money. Likewise the more bearish it looks, and things don't follow through, the more bullish a trading signal will be to go the other way at the appropriate time. Keep on reading @ silverseek.com | |
| Chart Appendix for April 21, 2012 (Video) GGR Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:19 AM PDT
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| Posted: 23 Apr 2012 06:15 AM PDT Ron Paul CNBC guest host on the Fed and Gold; Part One Part Two | |
| The Great Western Revenue Crisis, Part I Posted: 23 Apr 2012 05:56 AM PDT While some may argue my criticism of the insipid mainstream media is too extreme, my rebuttal is simple: "don't shoot the messenger." It's not simply that these media drones are wrong consistently – indeed, almost unfailingly – but in many instances their reporting on issues is literally 180 degrees opposite to the facts. There can be no more obvious example of the mainstream media's inability to distinguish "black" from "white" than its utterly worthless reporting on the debt crisis sweeping across Western nations. Not only have they been unanimously incorrect in identifying any of the causes of this debt-crisis, but these dolts can't even manage to describe the problem correctly. In this case it is necessary to put the proverbial cart before the horse. First I'll show people what the Western debt crisis is really all about. Then once the problem is clear it will be much easier to understand/accept the real causes. Sadly, while is truly a "Western" problem it will have to be illustrated with U.S. data, due to the lack of availability of "real dollar" data for other Western economies. It is ironic that the U.S. – which has both pioneered and perfected lying-with-numbers with its official statistics – is now the only place to obtain realistic (i.e. "real dollar") economic data in many important categories. This is due entirely to the tireless efforts of John Williams of Shadowstats.com, as well as the efforts of less-visible sites and individuals who have built upon that body work. Williams produces the only data on U.S. inflation (and many other key statistics) using the same methodology for each year's calculation. Conversely, as I have explained on previous occasions the U.S. government is continually "moving the goalposts" with its statistical lies. It is continually changing the methodology of its calculations. Not only are these "changes" comprised of ever more dubious/absurd "adjustments" and "assumptions", but this intentional deceit is compounded by refusing to update old data with the new methodology – the only possible means to produce consistent measurements. Instead, the U.S. government's statistical liars simply string together these disconnected series' of calculations – thus literally comparing "apples" to "oranges". We can see not only proof of the deceit, but a clear indication of the motives for these lies when we examine charts which include both the official government lies along side data produced from Williams consistent (and statistically valid) methodology. The two charts below not only demonstrate unequivocally that the Western "debt crisis" is a revenue crisis (not a "spending crisis"), but we can clearly see the efforts of the U.S. government statisticians to hide the true nature of the crisis – by creating phony data to suggest we are experiencing a spending crisis instead.
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| When Should I Be Bullish On Gold? Posted: 23 Apr 2012 05:36 AM PDT By John Mylant: Since this is an Election year, it only makes sense that the powers that be will do all they can to make economic conditions favorable to get re-elected. This includes a strengthening economy, low inflation, and a strong dollar. One thing that does not appear to go hand in hand right now is a strong dollar and increasing value of precious metals. The powers that be do not like high gold or silver prices during an election year. That means people are looking for a safe haven for a trouble brewing in the world. No matter what the Feds say, they will act this year if we see our gross domestic product (GDP) slows down of if it doesn't maintain a 2% inflation rate and/or unemployment starts to creep back up. If Operation Twist (which ends in June) does not do the trick, there is a good chance we may Complete Story » | |
| Gold and Silver Enter Period of Low Volatility and Disinterest Posted: 23 Apr 2012 04:59 AM PDT Gold and Silver have been correcting multi-year advances. In this article we illustrate what ultimately develops as these corrections progress into consolidations. Namely, volatility declines, general interest in the market evaporates and this produces sentiment that is conducive for an important bottom. Because these are long-lasting, sustained corrections, the bottoms take time to develop. There are many fits and starts and as a result, most bottoms are not obvious until months after the fact. We provide some charts to help understand what is currently taking place and what we can expect going forward. Let's start with Gold. At the top we plot the average true range (ATR) indicator which is a helpful volatility indicator of sorts. When it becomes stretched or rises too high on the chart, we can expect a reversal in trend. Note that the ATR indicator often hits a low prior to or soon after the start of an impulsive advance. This occurred with every major move with the exception being 2008 when volatility peaked during the financial crisis which sent Gold down 30%. Also, the yellow shows what was an uncorrected two year advance from $900 to $1900. This 25-month advance has been followed by an 8-month correction. Using Fibonacci retracements implies a "time" correction of 9.5 months, 12.5 months or 15.5 months. This indicates that Gold should correct (in terms of time) for at least few more months. Next, we look at the commitment of traders report (COT) for Gold. The bottom rows show the commercial short positions as well as open interest. Note that the commercial short position is essentially near a three low which implies very limited speculation in the market. Moreover, open interest has declined since late 2010 and sits at a multi-year low. Traders are leaving this market en masse. Turning to Silver, we find a similar situation. Periods of low volatility have coincided with the start of major moves in Silver. The examples are 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. Silver advanced from $8 to $49 in about 29 months. The market has been in a correction for 12 months. Applying Fibonacci analysis, we'd expect the correction to last 11 months, 14.5 months or 18 months. Thus, Silver could continue to consolidate for several months. Moving to the COT, we see that commercial short positions are at 26.5K contracts which is relatively close to the 10-year low seen at the end of 2011. Open interest has begun to climb higher but it remains well below the peaks seen from 2009-2011. Markets cycle between periods of advance, correction and consolidation as well as periods of high volatility and low volatility. In the case of Commodities, these states tend to be magnified. Advances can be sharp and fast and the same goes for corrections. Because of this, multi-month consolidations are often required to digest these big moves. When the market finds an equilibrium, which occurs at low volatility, the primary trend can reassert itself. The point is, Gold and Silver made major moves in recent years lasting 25 months and 29 months. Such moves are not corrected and digested in a period of only a few months. As we should know by now, it takes many months. As the market gets deeper into these corrections and they become consolidations, volatility falls, bullish sentiment recedes and general interest abates. These are the conditions that precede important lows.This isn't manipulation or conspiracy. Leave that to others. This is how markets work. It appears to me that Gold and Silver could have a few more months of consolidation before the next big move can develop. Summer is naturally a period of low volatility when these metals make lows so be patient and keep your eyes out for bargains and a potential final low in the summer. For our subscribers we are currently compiling lists of our favorite producers, small producers as well as favorite exploration companies. It will take time for the bottom to form but in a few years you will wish you were buying in 2012 rather than musing over thoughts of a rigged market, conspiracy, manipulation and anything that does nothing to help you make money. If you are a serious investor and you'd be interested in professional guidance then we invite you to learn more about our premium service. Good Luck! Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
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| Posted: 23 Apr 2012 04:20 AM PDT
PRICES TO buy gold bullion on the wholesale market dropped to $1630 an ounce during Monday morning's London session – a 2.3% drop from where they started the month – while stock markets and industrial commodities also traded lower following the release of preliminary Chinese manufacturing data. "Gold remains in a short-term bear channel," say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "We would expect a test of support from the long-term uptrend…[which] comes in around $1600." Silver bullion dropped to near 3-month lows, hitting $31.09 per ounce ahead of the US session. European stock markets sold off heavily, with the UK's FTSE down 1.7% by lunchtime, and Germany's DAX off 2.7%. Activity in China's manufacturing sector has continued to contract this month, according to data published Monday. The HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI) for this month came in at 49.1 – up from 48.3 for March (a figure below 50 indicates sector contraction). The slight rise in the PMI figure "suggests that the earlier easing measures have started to work and hence should ease concerns of a sharp growth slowdown," according to HSBC's Chief Economist for China Qu Hongbin. "The pace of both output and demand growth [however] remains at a low level in an historical context and the job market is under pressure. This calls for additional easing measures in the coming months." The international community has pledged a total of $430 billion in additional IMF contributions – a move that would almost double the Fund's lending capacity – IMF managing director Christine Lagarde revealed at the IMF's Spring Meetings, which ended at the weekend. The US however declined to increase its contribution. IMF money will not be earmarked for any particular country, an official statement said, although its latest World Economic Outlook last week carried a section on sovereign funding stresses in the Eurozone. The report advises that the European Central Bank "should lower its policy rate while continuing to use unconventional policies to address banks' funding and liquidity problems." "None of the advice of the IMF has been discussed by the Governing Council," said ECB president Mario Draghi on Friday. The government debt of Eurozone nations rose to a Euro era high of 87.2% of gross domestic product last year – up from 85.3% a year earlier – according to official European Union data published Monday. Reports on Monday morning suggested Netherlands prime minister Mark Rutte was on the verge of resignation, after the Freedom Party walked out of talks on austerity measures and said it was ending its agreement to support Rutte's minority government. The Netherlands is expected to record a government deficit of 4.6% of GDP this year, compared to a target of 3%. Over in France meantime, Socialist Party candidate François Hollande led the first round of the French presidential election, the results of which were announced Sunday. Hollande received 28.6% of the vote, compared to 27.1% received by incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. Marine Le Pen, leader of Front National, came third with 18.1%. "The first round may offer a glimmer of hope for Sarkozy," says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. "But it also entails a risk that he could pander to right-wing sentiment on European issues in the next two weeks. Stronger calls for a 'growth mandate for the ECB' and the like may not go down well in Berlin and Frankfurt." Calls for economic growth as well as price stability to form part of the ECB's mandate have become a campaign issue in the French election, and form part of Hollande's manifesto. Gold bullion refiners have been stocking up on small gold bars popular with European gold buyers, in preparation for an escalation in the Eurozone crisis, according to John Dizard at the Financial Times. "Somewhere near Geneva airport," writes Dizard, referring to a major hub of the gold refining industry, "candles are being burned in front of the image of François Hollande. I think that simple faith will be rewarded soon." However, "concerns over Europe are capping [gold's] upside," says Tobias Merath, head of global commodity research at Credit Suisse. "The situation in Europe has the potential to lead to deteriorating liquidity conditions…as we saw at the end of last year, gold is a hedge against all kinds of crises, but not against a liquidity problem, when people are liquidating assets to raise much-needed cash. They also sell gold in this environment." Over in India meantime gold dealers have reported a pickup in business ahead of tomorrow's Akshaya Tritiya festival – traditionally seen as an auspicious day to buy gold. On New York's Comext exchange meantime, the difference between bullish and bearish contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders – the so-called speculative net long – rose 2.2% in the week ended last Tuesday, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published late Friday. Although spec long positions fell by the equivalent of almost 11 tonnes of gold bullion, noncommercial Comex traders reduced their aggregate short exposure by nearly double that, with short positions falling by the equivalent of 20.7 tonnes. "While investors are not overly bullish," says Standard Bank commodities strategist Marc Ground, "the drop in short positions is somewhat encouraging as a sign that investors are cautious of running too short." Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Posted: 23 Apr 2012 04:09 AM PDT By Delusional Economics, who is horrified at the state of economic commentary in Australia and is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from MacroBusiness. Back in December last year while discussing the ongoing woes of Europe, I suggested tha the fiscal compact may never actually be enacted because attempts to do so would have such a disastrous outcome that European nations will inevitably give up. I also mentioned in February that one of the things that could potentially effect any implementation was the European people themselves when they got to have a say about what was going on. Over the weekend round one of the French presidential elections took place, and the results certainly aren't pro-compact. In fact, I am not even sure they are pro-Europe:
Le Pen's policies are as you would expect from a far-Right candidate. Patriotism, protectionism, state control all being high on the list. Le Pen has stated she is determined to re-industrialisation of France, reduce immigration to just 10,000 a year, scrap the European common Agricultural Policy and pull France out of the passport-free Schengen zone amongst many other policies. Latest results are Hollande 28.8%, Sarkozy: 26.1; Le Pen 18.5%. The big question now is how the votes of failed far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen will fall. A first round poll suggested that 48% of Le Pen supporters will transfer their vote to Sarkozy, while 24% will opt for Hollande. However, 83% of Mélenchon voters prefer Hollande. At this stage Hollande and Sarkozy are very close going into the final round, but it is the far-Right's Le Pen that holds the key. France, however, is not the only nation in Europe where the Right is resurgent. Although the latest polls in Greece show that Antonis Samaras's New Democracy is likely to win over all, it will be unable to get anywhere near the required 151 seats to form government. In fact, the latest polls show that even if New Democracy and PASOK, the current ruling party, joined forces they may not get there. That being the case, a larger coalition will need to be formed, and the latest polls are predicting that will mean eight parties in the parliament many of them towards the extremes of the political spectrum:
The Greek election will be held on May 6. As I stated above, I mentioned both of these elections back in February calling them "black cygnets", meaning that they were events that people knew about but may have not have fully appreciated the potential consequences of them. Black Swan events are those that come completely out of the blue, and in those terms what occurred over the weekend in The Netherlands probably fits the bill: The ruling Dutch minority government was on the brink of collapse Saturday after anti-EU lawmaker Geert Wilders torpedoed seven weeks of austerity talks, saying he would not cave in to budget demands from "dictators in Brussels
This Dutch government has been relatively unstable since the last election when a majority coalition was formed including the Freedom Party, which runs far-Right immigration policy but is Left-leaning on state policy. The government was attempting to push through €14.2 billion in cost cuts in order to speed up the country's transition to a 3% deficit in 2013 instead of the forecast for 2015-16 under existing projections. After week long negotiations the cuts were sent to the government's economic agency for analysis (report available here if you can read Dutch ) and it was determined that they would result in a loss of economic growth which would mean that the overall effect of the cuts would only be about €6 billion as the rest would be lost in falling government income due to the negative effects of the cuts. Upon seeing this analysis, the Freedom party pulled the pin on the coalition and the country must now hold new elections in September. It is widely expected that the country will be downgraded from AAA to AA by the ratings agencies given the on-going political instability. The other thing of note is that the Dutch housing market appears to be popping. In February prices were 3.4% lower y-o-y, in March this rose to 4.7% y-o-y and prices are now down 11.8% from the peak. The Netherlands currently allows mortgage interest as a tax deduction, however , under a new government this deduction maybe reduced or removed altogether. Geert Wilders's new book "Marked for Death. Islam's war against the West and Me" will be launched shortly in the US. As I have stated previously in reference to austerity.
Obviously, I'm still concerned.
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| Gold Prices Hover, Trading Sluggish Ahead of Fed Meeting Posted: 23 Apr 2012 01:34 AM PDT gold.ie | |
| Italy police seize $5 billion of U.S. securities Posted: 23 Apr 2012 12:42 AM PDT
from reuters.com: Italy financial police have seized U.S. securities with face values of about $1.5 billion and gold certificates worth above 3 billion euros ($3.96 billion) as part of an investigation into a possible international financial scam. The police said on Saturday the "million dollar" operation was a last step in the probe, which centered on the use of bearer Federal Reserve debt securities dating back to the 1930s as a guarantee for loans or other opaque cross-border transactions. Rome police seized the securities from a 70-year-old man, who held them in a briefcase along with documents about financial operations, the police said in a statement. Police said they were carrying out checks, helped by the U.S. Central Bank and the U.S. embassy in Rome, over the authenticity and origin of the securities, as well as over possible links between the man and criminal organizations. Keep on reading @ reuters.com | |
| Two views on gold – both positive but…. Posted: 23 Apr 2012 12:26 AM PDT
from mineweb.com: wo keynote speakers at Mining Journal's Gold Day on Friday both purported to be positive on gold, but one's 'positive' pronouncements raised some decided worries for gold miners – notably for gold juniors, while the other suggested a far more bullish path for the metal price. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com | |
| The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold Posted: 23 Apr 2012 12:21 AM PDT
from forbes.com: Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China's imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices. On the last day of 2011, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. The NDAA, as it is called, attempts to reduce Iran's revenue from the sale of petroleum by imposing sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting transactions with Iranian financial institutions in connection with those sales. This provision, which essentially cuts off sanctioned institutions from the U.S. financial system, takes effect on June 28. The NDAA gives the president the power to waive the sanctions depending on the availability and price of supplies from non-Iranian sources. He can also exempt financial institutions from countries that have significantly cut back purchases of Iranian petroleum. Last month, the State Department announced waivers for Japan and ten European countries. China, which has received American waivers in the past under other Iran legislation, is now Tehran's largest oil customer and investor as well as its largest trading partner. Given the new mood in Washington, Beijing cannot count on getting more exceptions in the future. Keep on reading @ forbes.com | |
| Some Miner & Not-So-Minor Issues Posted: 23 Apr 2012 12:09 AM PDT Precious metals markets started the new week with a bit of a mixed picture last night in overseas trading. Spot dealings showed gold falling $2.40 to $1,640.00 and silver down a dime to $31.60 per ounce. Platinum and palladium each advanced $1. | |
| Bob Chapman: What got me involved in Gold and Silver Posted: 22 Apr 2012 11:48 PM PDT Bob Chapman: What got me involved in gold and silver related assets in the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my blog http://www.bobchapman.blogspot.com for the full Story ]] | |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/23/12 Posted: 22 Apr 2012 11:45 PM PDT Sarkozy loses first round in the French elections. This creates the scenario that the French/German alliance on fixing the European debt issue is at risk. PERCEPTION: Euro drops, equity markets globally take a hit. I think it was more the Euro zone manufacturing index which was weaker than expected. Its an uneasy market that prompted the excuse to take money off the table. Metals did not avoid the weakness as investors are generating cash. Gold again is testing the $1,632 level for the third time. If we break through, a move to the $1,608 level is in the cards. The dollar will be key to determining golds direction. Handy tracking tool for your precious metals - check it out: bulliontracking.com | |
| Gold Bullion Falls with Stocks after Chinese Output Data Posted: 22 Apr 2012 11:21 PM PDT Gold bullion prices fell to $1,630 per ounce during Monday morning's London trading – 2.3% down on where they started the month – while stock markets and industrial commodities also sold off following the release of preliminary Chinese manufacturing data. | |
| How long until silver breaks out? Posted: 22 Apr 2012 10:31 PM PDT
from silverseek.com: f you look at the graph below you can clearly see the mini-spike in silver prices last April and the sideways consolidation since then. There was no true spike in prices because there has been no subsequent collapse. Indeed, the silver price has been well supported in the $30-35 an ounce range. However, the price has taken some very gradual steps lower. It may be that we see at least one more of these steps before the price decline is done. You do not need to be the greatest brain in the sector to imagine what would cause silver to decline from this point. Gold demand should pick up this week due to the Indian religious calendar and silver prices do tend to follow gold upwards. In fact silver almost always outperforms gold by a factor of two to the upside, and offers reverse disappointment when things go sour. Turning point? Keep on reading @ silverseek.com | |
| 8 Key Charts, Gold, Fed & The Big Picture Posted: 22 Apr 2012 10:29 PM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: With gold near the $1,650 level, King World News was given exclusive distribution rights to this outstanding piece which has eight excellent graphs, by superstar John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.. John is without question one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today regarding gold, and his fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating by Morningstar. By John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. During the first quarter of 2012, precious metals equities, as measured by the XAU index, declined 2.4% to 175.46, while gold bullion rose 6.7% to $1668.35. In our opinion, the first quarter consisted of an important test of the low made by the metal in December at $1522.65. Precious metals shares have been marking time during this testing phase. We previously commented that precious metals equities represented outstanding value at year end 2011. In light of first quarter action, the value proposition is, to us, even more compelling for precious metals shares. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com | |
| European Splintering Escalates Posted: 22 Apr 2012 10:27 PM PDT European Splintering Escalates: Dutch Government Falls; Slovakia Government Collapsed in March; Czech Government Collapse Coming Right Up
from globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca: The Netherlands government has officially collapsed in a dispute over austerity measures. Elections likely in September. Meanwhile, the Czech government is also on the verge of collapse, for the same reason: austerity measures. The Financial Times reports Dutch government falls over budget talks EU-imposed austerity measures have cost leaders in southern European countries, including Greece, Italy and Spain, their jobs. With the fall of the conservative Dutch government, and the possibility that Nicolas Sarkozy may lose the French presidential election that begins on Sunday, the damage seems to have spread to Europe's prosperous north. Keep on reading @ globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca | |
| Posted: 22 Apr 2012 09:49 PM PDT The Netherlands has been one of the staunchest proponents of forced austerity on Greece. However, now that Brussels has demanded the Netherlands hit its fiscal targets, Dutch politicians can't get the task done and the government is poised to collapse. New elections are coming up... Read | |
| USA Single Family Housing Industry Smashed For A Decade Posted: 22 Apr 2012 09:32 PM PDT People have to live somewhere. Now they rent and multi-family housing demand is higher. Existing properties are filling to the maximum. There is demand for new multi-family product in several urban markets. The only way to finance is sell multi-family bonds. Developers will borrow and build. When the credit smash comes again this newer idea will be in serious big trouble. Lead time to borrow and build means many projects get half-built and stopped mid-stream. That is our lastest multi-family housing prediction on this beaten down industry. Multi-family Bonds Surging to Record In U.S.A. People Gotta Live Somewhere. "Bonds backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tied to apartments soared to a record as the government-supported mortgage companies made low-cost loans on rental properties amid a continued slide in home values. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae sold $13.5 billion of securities tied to the buildings in the first quarter of 2012, an 81% increase from the year-earlier period and up from $5.2 billion issued in all of 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It's the highest quarterly issuance since records began in 1993." "The mortgage companies, rescued by the government after taking losses on home loans, are increasingly packaging apartment debt into securities for sale as regulators instruct them to aid housing and shrink their balance sheets. Wall Street banks are benefiting from selling the deals as Europe's sovereign fiscal crisis has fueled volatility in credit markets and restrained transactions without the guarantees." "The sheer volume of financing opportunities has grown tremendously," said Mitchell Resnick, a vice president at Mclean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. "This avenue permits us to do that without putting more assets on the balance sheet and more taxpayer dollars at risk. The U.S. government has spent $190 billion to shore-up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 2008, when they were taken into conservatorship as they teetered on the brink of collapse after investing in risky mortgages." "Demand for rental properties is increasing as rents rise amid a 10-year low in vacancies fueled by a homeownership rate that's at about the lowest level since 1998. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell -3.8% in January from a year earlier and is down more than -34% from its peak in 2006. Landlords are seeking the loans to lower borrowing costs and fund purchases of apartment buildings. Sales of multifamily properties totaled $3.8 billion in January, a +53% increase from a year earlier and the strongest start to 2012 among all types of commercial real estate, according to Real Capital Analytics." "Apartment construction is rebounding from a 50-year low reached in 2009 even as falling home prices and low interest rates begin to attract buyers back to the purchase market. Building permits for U.S. apartments rose +56 % in the 12 months ended in February from the low in 2009, more than doubling in five of the six most-active construction markets — Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Washington and Seattle –according to Axiometrics Inc. and Census Bureau data. In the sixth, New York, permits rose +73%." "Agency debt, which accounted for less than 5% of total commercial-mortgage bond issuance at the peak in 2007, grew to more than +50% of total supply last year, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) said in a presentation last month, with the heading "Agency CMBS: too big to ignore!" The loans are buoying the price of apartment buildings to the point that buyers may not be able to refinance once interest rates rise, Sam Chandan, a real estate economist, said in the report. "Take into account that home ownership is decreasing and on top of that, the obsolescence of the existing stock," Resnick countered. "None of that would point you to the conclusion that there is a major oversupply." Apartment rents climbed +4.1% in the 12 months through December, according to Axiometrics. Multifamily landlords are projected to see their rental revenue increase by +6.7% this year, as little new supply comes to market. "As long as we have stress in the single-family market, we're going to see renting as a viable alternative to more people," said Fannie's Johnson." -Sarah Mulholland 4-9-1 Bloomberg.net
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| Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 23 2012 Posted: 22 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT | |
| Gold/Platinum Ratio & the Coming Depression Posted: 22 Apr 2012 08:09 PM PDT Although commodities, like platinum, will outperform most asset classes over the next years, they will still depreciate significantly as compared to gold and silver. | |
| Indicators Predict Gold Trend to Continue: John LaForge Posted: 22 Apr 2012 07:00 PM PDT Many forces influence the gold markets today, sometimes producing confusing indicators of what may lie ahead. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John LaForge, commodity strategist at... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter |
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