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- Mobile Payment Windfall Coming For These Stocks
- Friday Options Recap: Expiration Day
- Gold Radio Cafe - Gold and Silver Financial Review With Bob Chapman
- Essential Knowledge for Maximizing Real Gains
- Gold “Needs to Reclaim $1700″
- Buying Gold at a Discount
- Yesterday In Gold and Silver
- Silver Seen Over $40 oz in 2012
- WGC reportshows steady Q1 gold price rise
- Syrian regime selling gold
- Biderman Knocks Government ‘Statistics’
- Gold Heading to 1% Decline after Turbulent Week
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/20/12
- Silver Seen Over $40/oz in 2012 & Store of Value
- Understanding Gold's Crosscurrents
- Real interest rates and the lack of a gold bubble
- World Gold Council report shows steady Q1 gold price rise
- SHFE Paves the Way for Silver Futures
- COMEX Reduces Silver Margins Yet Again
- Revolutionary Policy and Saving in Silver
- 329,000 Oz of Silver into JPM Vaults Wed
- Syria Liquidating Gold to Mitigate Sanctions
- Moron Bubbles
- April 2, 1792 : The US Coinage Act
- Watch Gold Trading In Streets Of Greece For Similar Action In Other Nations
- The Most Important and Extraordinary Chart for 2012: James Turk
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 20 2012
- Craig Smith: Gold Standard Possible
- The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 4) - Five strategic proposals to modernize the US institutional system
- Bullion Treads Water in Turbulent Seas
| Mobile Payment Windfall Coming For These Stocks Posted: 20 Apr 2012 06:40 AM PDT By David Alton Clark: The mobile payment industry is still in its infancy. I believe the mobile payment industry is a multi-billion dollar, multi-year secular growth market which will have a huge impact to the bottom line of key mobile payment players. eBay's (EBAY) mobile payment business has exploded from a few hundred million dollar business in 2009 to a $7 billion business in 2012. Only a small percentage of smart phone users currently use the service today, I predict that will soon change and eBay's mobile payments exponential growth rate support my thesis. eBay's PayPal exemplifies the exponential growth potential for mobile payments. eBay recently reported revenue for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012, which increased 29% to $3.3 billion, compared to the same period of 2011. eBay President and CEO John Donahoe stated,
Complete Story » |
| Friday Options Recap: Expiration Day Posted: 20 Apr 2012 06:27 AM PDT By Frederic Ruffy: It's options-expiration Friday! A relatively quiet trading so far, with earnings news driving a lot of the action. Microsoft (MSFT) is up 5.5 percent and helping both the Dow and Nasdaq after results topped Street views. GE (GE), McDonald's (MCD), and Deutsche Bank (DB) are also seeing post-earnings gains. Sandisk (SNDK), Riverbed (RVBD) and Tempur Pedic (TPX) are suffering losses on "the dog ate my first quarter earnings" type action. On the economic front, the calendar is empty until Tuesday's reports on housing prices and consumer confidence. Trading was orderly across the eurozone after Spain's IBEX bounced back from 3-year lows and gained 1.2 percent. Crude oil gained $1.15 to $103.87 and gold is seeing a second day of eerily quiet trading. The yellow metal ticked up $1.7 to $1643.1. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was sporting a triple digit gain through the morning session, but is Complete Story » |
| Gold Radio Cafe - Gold and Silver Financial Review With Bob Chapman Posted: 20 Apr 2012 06:12 AM PDT Gold Radio Cafe - Gold and Silver Financial Review With Bob Chapman hosted by... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my blog http://www.bobchapman.blogspot.com for the full Story ]] This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Essential Knowledge for Maximizing Real Gains Posted: 20 Apr 2012 04:42 AM PDT "Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply. And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms." "The Federal Reserve…What Has It Done For You Lately?" Ian Gordon, December 29, 2007, www.axisoflogic.com Pick any period of rising U.S. Equities Markets whether from the September, 2002 lows through the September, 2007 high, or the December, 2011 lows to the late March, 2012 highs. These Highs lulled some investors and several commentators into believing that they had Real Gains as of September, 2007 or March, 2012. Unfortunately, when properly measured, many of these Ostensible Gains actually are not. Deepcaster contends that the Proper Measure for Gains is "Purchasing Power." Consider, specifically, the rise in the U.S. Equities Markets from 2005 through 2006. If one owned shares in the S&P 500 (SPX – the market basket of S&P 500 Securities) for the 12-month period ending April 30, 2006, the value of that market basket of securities would have risen in U.S. Dollar terms. But it would have declined over 30% since the summer of 2005 when measured by the price of Gold. The point is that, from the summer of 2005 until late April 2006 the S&P 500 was in a Bull Market in Dollar terms, but in a Bear Market in Gold terms. Consider also the United States Dollar. From January 2002 through late April 2006; for example, the U.S. Dollar, as measured by the USDX (the U.S. Dollar's value as measured by a market basket of other currencies) lost Purchasing Power in an amount exceeding 25%. Since many, if not most, of the prices of goods and services purchased are determined in an international economy, such a loss of Purchasing Power is quite substantial. Thus, a person whose increases in U.S. Dollar income from January 2002 through April 2006 collectively amounted to less than 25% actually suffered a loss of Purchasing Power in the international economy in that period. Such Purchasing Power losses are even Greater when one takes Account of Real Inflation. Real Inflation in the U.S. for example, is 10.28% (as of March, 2012) per shadowstats.com. Shadowstats measures Inflation the way it was measured in the 1980s before the Official Figures became Politicized and therefore Bogus (see Note 1). One key point is that one must decide what asset or asset class one will use as the "baseline asset" against which to measure one's wealth and income increase or decrease. And one must also take account of Real Inflation. Deepcaster's view is that the Ultimate Measures of Value should be Gold (first), then Silver and the other Precious Metals and Key Strategic Commodities (i.e., generally, Tangible Assets rather than Paper "Assets"). Why? Because the Private-for-Profit Fed, the ECB, and other Central Banks are increasingly Printing/Digitizing Fiat Money and Credit into existence ($Trillions in recent years) well in excess of any increase in Global Production of Goods and Services, thus diminishing Fiat Currencies' Purchasing Power. This is why the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve Note) has declined by over 95% since The Fed was founded in 1913. Another Key point is that this Fiat Currency Creation out of Thin Air continues to increase at an accelerating rate and thus is a sure Precursor to Price Inflation. Even Money of Zero Maturity (MZM) has increased 10-fold since 1980. Thus Gold and Silver Prices should reflect this Monetary Inflation, and indeed they have with the Gold Price increasing five-fold in the past decade, and the Silver Price even more. But owning Gold and Silver is challenging. In other words, one should employ this Golden Tangible Asset "Ultimate" Valuation Measure but with caution because the prices of the aforementioned Precious Metals and other commodities, as well as Equities, are periodically the victims of Interventional Action by a Fed-led Cartel* of Central Bankers and their Allies and Agents. Indeed, some Interventions are conducted quite publicly. Interest Rate Adjustments are the most publicly visible. The August 17, 2007 Fed Discount Rate Cut is one example. Less visible, but not less potent, are the nearly daily Repurchase Agreement (Repo) injections (by The Fed, via their Primary Dealers), used, inter alia, to control the levels of the Equities Markets. And there are other Potential and Ongoing, but barely visible, Interventions as well. *We encourage those who doubt the scope and Power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster's December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled "Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions - III" and Deepcaster's July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the 'Alerts Cache' and 'Latest Letter' Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster's profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these "Interventionals." Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster's recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. Indeed, nearly $470 billion in OTC (i.e. Dark, not Exchange Traded) Derivatives were available to suppress Gold prices alone as of June, 2011 (as reported by the BIS, the Central Bankers' Bank based in Switzerland - www.bis.org. (Path: www.bis.org>statistics>derivatives>statistical tables). Indeed, were it not for active Gold Price Suppression by The Cartel, Deepcaster believes Gold would have exceeded $2500/oz. by now. For example, observing the markets upon arising on Tuesday, August 19, 2008, Deepcaster noted that the two main stories headlined in the Big Financial Media were the prospective collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the July PPI increase of 1.2% -- twice what was expected. Of course, as Safe Havens, Gold and Silver should have rocketed up on this news but, instead, Gold was taken down several dollars at the time and moved very little when the PPI number was announced. Similarly, in mid-March, 2008 when the Financial Crisis culminated (temporarily) with the demise of Bear Stearns, Gold and Silver were smashed down, whereas in a Free Market they would have shot up. Clearly Gold and Silver Prices were and are being capped, as they seem to have been every time negative economic data or market developments are revealed. One insight which we garner, again, from these and many similar observations is that it is essential to consider the Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals when making a Market Forecast or Buy or Sell Recommendation. Thus, for example, the price of Gold and Silver on any given day may not reflect anything near their Ultimate Value. See Deepcaster's March, 2012 Article "Profit, Protection Despite Cartel Intervention" in 'Articles by Deepcaster' at www.deepcaster.com. Unfortunately, there are also ongoing Interventions in Major Markets other than the Gold and Silver markets. They are especially visible in the U.S. Equities Markets via, for example, the (nearly daily) Repo injections. Importantly, this fact of Ongoing Intervention is one major reason a mere "Buy and Hold" strategy increasingly fails, especially as far as Equities are concerned. A Holder of the S&P through the last decade would have lost substantial value when Real Inflation is considered, and will likely lose more as Fiat Money Printing intensifies. And it Surely will. "QE to Infinity is set in cement in the 'European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty'. This is the new European Union and the euro. It will be in place and operative by July of 2012. "The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is a permanent rescue funding programme to succeed the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism in the 17-member Eurozone. The ESM is due to be launched as soon as Member States representing 90% of the capital commitments have ratified it, which is expected in July 2012." Jim Sinclair, Mineset, 04/19/2012 And Ellen Brown eloquently describes the profitable consequences of the ESM bailout coup for private banks. "The Goldman Sachs coup that failed in America has nearly succeeded in Europe—a permanent, irrevocable, unchallengeable bailout for the banks underwritten by the taxpayers." The European Stabilization Mechanism, or How the Goldman Vampire Squid Just Captured Europe Ellen Brown, webtofdebt.com/articles, 04/18/2012, via LeMetropoleCafe.com The Cartel's motivation for takedown attempts of Gold, Silver, and other Tangible Assets is clear: they do not want the further legitimization of Gold & Silver (or Tangible Assets in general, for that matter) as Measures and Stores of Value (i.e. Real Money) to compete with their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies. But, notwithstanding the Interventions, one can still utilize a "comparative valuation" approach. The benefit of the "comparative valuation" approach outlined above is that it actually gives one a different and illuminating perspective on Asset Inflation, Asset Deflation, and Purchasing Power. For example, if the reader chooses not to use Gold (Deepcaster's "baseline asset" of choice) or other Precious Metals as a baseline asset, we invite the reader to consider the consequences of using the Energy Assets Class instead. But again, the Interventional Caveat applies: there exist $Trillions of OTC Derivatives available to manipulate the price of Crude Oil and other Commodities - - see BIS Table referenced above. So long as the private-for-profit United States Federal Reserve and ECB continue to profligately expand the supply of money and credit, we will see continuing debasement of the U.S. Dollar and Euro in Purchasing Power Terms and this virtually guarantees Price Inflation. Thus much of the Financial Asset and Commodity appreciation, in terms of U.S. Dollars, which we have seen in recent years, is really only dollar depreciation. Indeed, the U.S. Dollar has depreciated over 30% between January, 2002 and July, 2008, for example. In sum, therefore, if one holds appreciated (in dollar terms) financial "assets" one must consider "appreciation (or depreciation) vis-à-vis what?" Depending on one's choice, one may find that the ostensible appreciation is really depreciation. [And especially so, if one factors in the tax consequences of being taxed on a larger number of U.S. Dollars which have a substantially decreased Purchasing Power.] Specifically, for example, measured (as of May 1, 2006, just to pick a salient date) against Gold or even other currencies, the ostensible appreciation of financial assets from late 2002 through the end of April, 2006 is arguably only a delusion. That is, it is arguably only an artifact of the Fed's profligate printing of paper money and increase of credit -- enabling an unhealthy "borrowed liquidity" as opposed to a healthy "earned liquidity" (e.g. savings) to use the late Dr. Kurt Richebacher's (R.I.P.) superb distinction. Given this Reality, the ostensible appreciation reflects only the Increasing depreciation of the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar. That is we have Prices Inflation which The Cartel and its Media Allies and Agents try to hide from us. John Brimelow, a savvy long-time observer of Markets writes, "Bloomberg, which in JBGJ's informed opinion is exceptionally top-down directed on an ideological basis even by American mainstream Media standards, has apparently been mobilized to counteract inflation fears: CPI Conspiracy Theories Fail to Die with Banana-to-Haircut Check. The invocation of the "Conspiracy Theory" concept in the context of 21st Century America polemics is the most extreme form of antithematization. Excommunication if this severity suggests alarming inflation data at least at the anecdotal level is looming." JBGJ LLC, 04/18/2012 In the long run, Deepcaster believes one can find no better "Safe Haven" and Measure and Store of Value than in the Precious Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver, and selected other Tangible Assets. BUT, we must reiterate that one essential Caveat regarding finding a "Safe Haven" and Measure and Store of Value in Precious Monetary Metals: in the short run they are subject to the considerable price manipulation Suppression Attempts by The Cartel of Central Bankers*. [Indeed, as long as The Cartel is in a very active interventional mode (e.g. as in taking down the price of Gold and Silver periodically) one should not be lured into thinking that the periodic up spikes in the prices of Gold and Silver necessarily present a "breakout" or a buying opportunity. As a practical matter, technical breakouts are sometimes a lure designed to suck in more "longs" prior to a subsequent deeper Takedown. Consider the parabolic spike up in both Gold and Silver prices in the hours before the Massive February 29, 2012 Takedown began.] However, there is increasingly reason for optimism. The Cartel's ability to sustain Takedowns has been considerably weakened recently largely because of increasing demand for Delivery of Physical Gold and Silver (as opposed to "paper" e.g. Certain Precious Metal ETF shares) – See Below. Moreover, Central Banks have begun to be Acquirers of Physical, and China has become (and India is) a net importer. Therefore, it is essential to study the Fundamentals and Technicals even though the Interventionals can temporarily override the Fundamentals and Technicals. One must study the Fundamentals not only for all the usual reasons but also because Fundamentals somewhat constrain the timing and effectiveness of Interventions by The Cartel. Similarly, one should study the Technicals for all the usual reasons and, in addition, because it is in The Cartel's interest to make its actions seem technically plausible in order to continue to "run mainly under the radar." It is not in The Cartel's interest to make its Interventions any more visible than they already are. Indeed, there is Powerful evidence that The Cartel often uses and/or helps create technical patterns (aka "Painting the Charts") which lure certain investors (such as hard asset investors) into getting "off sides" before Cartel actions such as taking down the price of Gold or Silver. So the question is, in the next round, will The Cartel price suppressors win out when it comes to Precious Metals and other Tangible Assets prices, or will increasingly bullish fundamentals propel them further up? Deepcaster provides his most recent Forecasts in his latest Alert posted at www.deepcaster.com. Whatever the answer, the mounting evidence is that the Fed-led Cartel is knowingly creating conditions designed to force the U.S (and, indeed, the entire industrialized world), to eventually choose between a Hyperinflationary Depression and the Cartel's ominous "End Game," which Deepcaster has described in its Alert of 8/13/07 "Massive Financial-Geopolitical Scheme Not Reported by Big Media" and June, 2007 Letter "Profiting From the Push to Denationalize Currencies and Deconstruct Nations" all and 9/23/10 Article "Gold-Freedom versus The Cartel 'End-Game' & A Strategy for Surmounting It" available at www.deepcaster.com. In addition to acquiring Gold and Silver, another way of surmounting the Hyperinflationary Effect of ongoing Fed and ECB QE is to Invest in High Yield stocks such as those listed in Deepcaster's High Yield Portfolio with selections aimed at achieving Total Return (Gain plus Yield) in excess of Real Inflation (10.28% as of March, 2012 in the U.S. See Note 2) In sum, among the key components of Deepcaster's prescription for achieving "Real Gains" are: 1. Locating one's capital primarily in Tangible Assets which are in great and relatively inelastic demand, including in 2. The Agricultural Commodities Sector, and in the 3. Precious Monetary Metals (e.g. Gold and Silver) but, preferably when acquired near the interim bottoms of Cartel-generated Takedowns. Timing and Selection here are key. For further details see Deepcaster's 12/23/07 Alert entitled "A Strategy for Profiting From Cartel Intervention in Gold, Silver, Crude, & Other Tangible Assets Markets" at www.deepcaster.com. 4. Stay informed, daily, if possible, regarding "The Interventionals" as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals. 5. Know the Real News and Real Statistics. Do not rely on often-spun MSM "News" and Bogus Official Data. Ultimately, the authentic stores and measures of value are Gold and Silver and other key Tangible Assets, not paper Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities. But with the Intervenors extremely active it behooves investors to regularly attend to the Interventionals as one acquires, and disposes of, and reacquires Key Tangible Assets. Deutsche Bank assures us that the Worst is yet to come: "The worst may be yet to come in the global financial crisis as the central bank spending that kept defaults low runs out, according to Deutsche Bank AG. "Credit-default swap prices imply that four or more European nations may suffer so-called credit events such as having to restructure their debt, strategists led by Jim Reid and Nick Burns said in a note. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments including Spain and Italy jumped 26 percent in the past month as the region's crisis flared up. "'If these implied defaults come vaguely close to being realized then the next five years of corporate and financial defaults could easily be worse than the last five relatively calm years,' the analysts in London said. "Much may eventually depend on how much money-printing can be tolerated as we are very close to being maxed out fiscally." Deutsche Bank: Worst of Global Crisis Yet to Come as Rescue Cash Runs Out Bloomberg, 04/18/2012 Be Prepared! Best regards, Deepcaster April 20, 2012 Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com) Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported April 13, 2012 2.87% / 10.28% U.S. Unemployment reported April 6, 2012 8.2% / 22.2% U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported March 29, 2012 1.62% / -2.70% U.S. M3 reported April 14, 2012 (Month of March, Y.O.Y.) No Official Report / 3.71% And Official Source Disinformation continues; consider Shadowstats comments on the January 6, 2012 release of U.S. Employment data: "The reported seasonally-adjusted 200,000 jobs surge in December 2011 payrolls included a false, seasonally-adjusted gain of roughly 42,000 in the "Couriers and Messengers" category. That gain was an artifact of the seasonal-adjustment process and will remove itself in the January 2012 numbers. "The problem is that this 42,000 gain is part of a seasonal pattern that fully reverses itself each January…" "December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem" www.shadowstats.com, John Williams, 01/06/12 Note 2: There are Magnificent Opportunities in the Ongoing Crises of Debt Saturation, Rising Unemployment, negative Real GDP growth, 10.28% Real U.S. Inflation (per Shadowstats.com) and prospective Sovereign and other Defaults. One Sector full of Opportunities is the High-Yield Sector. Deepcaster's High yield Portfolio is aimed at generating Total Return (Gain + Yield) well in excess of Real Consumer Price Inflation (10.45% per year in the U.S. per Shadowstats.com). To consider our High-Yield Stocks Portfolio with Recent Yields of 18.5%, 8.6%, 10.6%, 26%, 6.7%, 8%, 10.6%, 14.9%, 10% and 15.6% when added to the portfolio; go to www.deepcaster.com and click on 'High Yield Portfolio'. |
| Gold “Needs to Reclaim $1700″ Posted: 20 Apr 2012 02:50 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Gold "Needs to Reclaim $1700″ for Renewed Buying, with Breach of $1600 "Expected to Cause Liquidation" London Gold Market Report European stock markets were also broadly flat, as were commodities, while government bond prices ticked lower. "Overall, the price action since the February high of $1790 has been quite weak," says the latest technical analysis from gold bullion dealing bank Scotia Mocatta. "We would expect liquidation selling of gold below $1600. We do not see fresh buying emerge until we can reclaim the $1700 level." "Gold prices have been well supported since 2009 by the rapid expansion of central bank liquidity," adds the latest research note from commodities analysts at French investment bank Natixis. "Nevertheless, with the gradual recovery in the US economy beginning to call into question the need for additional quantitative easing from the Fed, gold prices have failed to improve upon their September 2011 peak." US Federal Reserve policymakers are due to announce their latest monetary policy decisions next week. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Posted: 20 Apr 2012 02:48 AM PDT
from wealthwire.com: China has been trying to diversify her foreign exchange reserves for some time. We are all familiar with the figures released by the likes of the World Gold Council about Chinese gold investment demand, as well as statistics showing official gold imports through Hong Kong into the Chinese mainland. Chinese reserves contain only 2% gold, compared to nearly 10% for India and Russia, and figures in the 70th percentile for developed nations such as the USA and Germany. Gold above ground Keep on reading @ wealthwire.com |
| Posted: 20 Apr 2012 02:11 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: All was quiet in Far East trading during their Thursday trading session…and volume was almost nonexistent in both gold and silver. But once London opened, a rally of sorts got under way in both metals…and JPMorgan et al had to throw a lot of paper at it to get it under control. Once they did, gold got sold down to it's low of the day [around $1,630 spot] which was shortly before 1:00 p.m. local time in London…and half an hour before the Comex opened in New York. From that low, the gold price struggled higher, but at 9:00 a.m. in New York a more serious rally got under way…which got stopped in its tracks at the London p.m. gold fix a few minutes before 10:00 a.m. Eastern. That proved to be the high tick of the day…which Kitco recorded as $1,655.20 spot. By the end of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. in New York, the gold price had been sold off about fifteen bucks…but it rallied a hair going into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Silver Seen Over $40 oz in 2012 Posted: 20 Apr 2012 01:58 AM PDT
from goldcore.com: Gold's London AM fix this morning was USD 1,640.00, EUR 1,246.30, and GBP 1,018.25 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,642.00, EUR 1,249.91 and GBP 1,022.73 per ounce. Silver is trading at $31.78/oz, €24.10/oz and £19.73/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,578.00/oz, palladium at $659.90/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz. Gold rose $1.50 or 0.09% in New York and closed at $1,640.80/oz yesterday. Gold traded sideways in a narrow spread in Asia and continued this in European trading climbing up around 0.16%. Gold rose quickly from $1,631/oz to nearly $1,650/oz in minutes on volume with some chunky 3000 lot plus batches of orders going through on the COMEX pushing gold up. A determined seller again appeared and gains were capped at that level. Gold is still firmly within a $27 trading range it has stuck to for most of the week. It is gold's narrowest range since March last year according to Jan Harvey of Reuters. Once gold breaks out of this range it will likely see sharp follow through moves up or down. Keep on reading @ goldcore.com |
| WGC reportshows steady Q1 gold price rise Posted: 20 Apr 2012 01:56 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: Disappointing new unemployment benefits and housing data from the US cast a shadow over markets yesterday, underscoring the still fragile nature of the US economy. Sales of previously owned US homes in March unexpectedly fell for the third time in the last four months, while new claims for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week. Gold and silver had been falling prior to this news, but rallied higher once investors digested this – bearish news grist for the "QE3 is coming" rumour mill. Wednesday saw the release of the World Gold Council's gold investment statistics commentary for the first quarter. The three key themes? Rising prices in all major currencies, with gold up 8.6% in USD terms over the three months. Volatility was generally positive, in contrast to other commodities. And the long-term correlation of gold to equities remains statistically insignificant – despite gold's above avera Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| Posted: 20 Apr 2012 01:00 AM PDT Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime is under increasing financial pressure as the economic sanctions imposed by western states and some Arab nations are hurting the country. According to Western ... |
| Biderman Knocks Government ‘Statistics’ Posted: 20 Apr 2012 12:20 AM PDT Charles Biderman, well known economic analyst and editor of Trim Tabs Research, has much to say about government economic data. And what he has to say isn't very flattering to those in the business of compiling the figures reported in financial media. Biderman is on record saying the government 'statistics' are little better than guesses and ignore hard real time data which tells a more accurate picture – something he has made a business of tracking for clients. The short video below touches one example, of many examples of the statistical charade produced by well paid bureaucrats Mr. Biderman finds sadly amusing. Source: YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzBrJQK010Q&feature=player_embedded |
| Gold Heading to 1% Decline after Turbulent Week Posted: 20 Apr 2012 12:09 AM PDT Little in the way of real change was noted this morning as the final session of the week got underway in New York. Spot gold hovered around $1,645 while spot silver appeared stuck around the $31.75 area. |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/20/12 Posted: 20 Apr 2012 12:05 AM PDT Got the short covering rally yesterday, moving silver up some .80 but no follow through as the markets ended only slightly higher. Lots of things to focus on. IMF meeting on weekend to attempt to raise $899 billion in emergency funds. Spanish yields touching 6% again suggesting continued fear. Dollar slightly weaker. Cant see the market being aggressively short over the weekend. If we get some softness in the morning, I would pick up a small position with the anticipation of a firmer close. |
| Silver Seen Over $40/oz in 2012 & Store of Value Posted: 19 Apr 2012 11:52 PM PDT Gold rose quickly from $1,631/oz. to nearly $1,650/oz. in minutes on volume with some chunky 3000 lot plus batches of orders going through on the Comex pushing gold up. A determined seller again appeared and gains were capped at that level. |
| Understanding Gold's Crosscurrents Posted: 19 Apr 2012 11:33 PM PDT Next Monday's European Union 17 PMI data, the Akshaya Trithiya religious festival which starts on April 24 and next Wednesday's US Federal Open Market Committee meeting are key events to watch for gold investors. |
| Real interest rates and the lack of a gold bubble Posted: 19 Apr 2012 11:32 PM PDT Real interest rates and the lack of a gold bubble - Ross Norman Speaking to Mineweb from the Denver Gold Group's European Gold Forum, Ross Norman explains why gold is not in a bubble and why investors must continue to come to the party Interviewer: Geoff Candy Posted: Friday , 20 Apr 2012 Download this interview GEOFF CANDY: Hello, and welcome to this Mineweb.com Newsmaker podcast and joining me live in Zurich from the Denver Gold Group European Gold Forum is Ross Norman. He's the CEO at Sharps Pixley. Ross, you've just given a very interesting presentation about whether or not the gold market is in a bubble - the answer - well I'll let you give that to us, but I suppose the first question is, is the gold market in a bubble? ROSS NORMAN: Well it's a perennial question that comes up in the media and some speculation, bearing in mind of course that gold has gone up by 17% compound year-on-year over 12 years - that's about a 650% rise over the course of the bull run. So I guess it naturally begs the question whether this is a speculative bubble. The short answer is, no it's not, and the reason for that is, yes, there is a bubble out there but it's not in gold, it's in the other broader financial markets - the US balance sheet more than doubling and indeed the real bubble is in US debt. Gold is merely reflecting those changes and indeed not just gold but actually the broad commodity complex, including oil and foods, so I think there's an illusion going on that these commodities appear expensive. The simple truth of the matter is that it's your cash which is cheap. GEOFF CANDY: I suppose, and you made the point exactly that, it's not the commodities that are expensive, it's the cash that's cheap. What happens when this bubble bursts? ROSS NORMAN: Well it currently depends whether it goes with a bang or deflates slowly. Bubbles can go in all sorts of different ways and that's down to policymakers and that's kind of hard to forecast, particularly in Europe at this moment in time. Gold will respond to that unquestionably. How - if it's a gentle deflation in the bubble I suspect gold will respond positively as wealth increases - more money will be spent on jewellery demand as wealth increases. If it goes with a bang, on the other hand of course, people will be looking to escape stricken currencies and buying gold as a form of safe haven. GEOFF CANDY: I wanted to get into your views on the investment side of the market because there's been a lot of talk about what's going on with the speculative side of the market, with the exchange traded fund (ETF) side of the market, particularly as we've seen people questioning whether or not we're likely to see further bouts of quantitative easing (QE). In terms of the investment side of the market, it has grown significantly strongly over the last few years - how do you see it placed at the moment? ROSS NORMAN: Well, at the beginning of this bull run investment demand accounted for about $3bn worth of sales - today it's $80bn. So yes, investment demand in total is about roughly a third of total demand. So yes, it's grown very strongly on the back of, primarily on the ETF, which has forged a wonderful conduit between the investment community, particularly large-scale pension funds, and the gold market. So it was quite innovative and gold has benefited, and it's a big part of the gold bull run story. I think what still is yet to play out is the more retail investor, the Moms and Pops and the buying of coins and bars. Certainly, in Germany there's been an explosion of demand, almost from nothing to over 200 tons, and the answer there is simply that the Germans not only had the desire to buy gold, the story was great, they also had access to gold because a lot of banks - Sparkasse, the savings banks - do buy and sell gold. That isn't the case in many other parts of the developed world, particularly outside of Germany, so to that extent I think there's an opportunity yet to be gained. You touched on speculative demand - well that's very tidal again, isn't it? The speculative interest, by speculative interest I mean positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or Comex, as it's often referred to, has been declining. That is a large part of the story, while gold has come off in the last short few months, but that's tidal and I'm sure that these investors will be back in the market soon enough. GEOFF CANDY: In terms of the Indian and Chinese demand for gold it's a lot easier there perhaps to buy physical gold than perhaps it is in other parts of the world. That clearly must have attributed to the rising demand there. ROSS NORMAN: Yes, those markets are very efficient, certainly India. The bid-offer spread, for want of a better way of putting it - the difference between the buying and selling price - is very tight. If you're looking to sell gold in India, it's about minus 1% - you get 1% below the spot price. If you're looking to buy fabricated jewellery products you're paying about 2% above spot and that's for a very intricate product, whereas in Europe the spread is roughly more than double that, so the European market is less efficient. And the Chinese market you alluded to is the new market and that's growing in efficiency. It's a relatively new market, it only liberalised in 2004 for the first time for over 40 years, but it's showing remarkable growth and the present time while demand in India seems to be stalling, the Chinese seem to be picking up the baton and running with it, because as we've seen, imports of gold into Hong Kong have been remarkably strong and the outlook seems to be that that will be maintained. GEOFF CANDY: In terms of the Indian side of the market there've been a few issues from the government in terms of trying to rein in their current account deficit. Do you see those factors as having an impact longer term on gold investment? ROSS NORMAN: I think for a lot of long-term gold bull watchers, when the government sought to double the import duty from 2% to 4% they might have regarded it as one of those 'uh oh' moments. India is a major player in the world gold market as you rightly point out and it seems as if the Ministry of Finance may be backtracking somewhat on this duty. I don't think it's one of those moments that we're beginning to signal the beginning of the end for gold. I think that we've seen successive all-time highs of gold in rupee terms and it's just a question of adjusting to the higher level and I think, not unnaturally, a lot of jobs in India are based around the gold sector. So the strike that took place over the best part of two or three weeks I think was a one-off. I think that they will come to accommodate this higher level of tax. I think on the other hand that it will spur significant smuggling into India - it already happens to some extent, but it may well at this level make it more attractive. GEOFF CANDY: Do you see the Western markets making it easier, or if the Western markets make it easier to buy gold, do you see people taking up the offer? ROSS NORMAN: Absolutely. At the moment if you want to get a measure of the fear in the markets there's a gauge called a Vix (volatility) index and that's currently holding above 20 - and that's regarded as a level which signifies you're in a very high state of tension, if you like, within the financial markets and that reflects very much what's happening in Europe at this point in time. Presently, with the clamp down on overseas havens for money laundering and such like the governments are doing, the only real alternative to holding your money in domestic assets is to buy gold, which effectively takes you out of that market. So gold is a safe haven for those in these very straitened and difficult times, but it needs to be remembered that gold is a very, very small lifeboat. If you could sell all the world's gold production at the spot market price, then it has a market cap less than Vodafone and yet it's compared to the US dollar, the S&P and Dow Jones. It's a very small lifeboat, so for those that need to get into it, you'd need to be aware of that and to get into it early, really. GEOFF CANDY: Ross, just to close off, coming back to real interest rates, because you did make the point that it's definitely a related indicator to gold, most of the big markets at the moment are in negative real interest rate territory - firstly, do you see them going back to positive interest rates any time soon and if so, what would likely happen then? ROSS NORMAN: In most consumer countries real interest rates are below minus 2% - that's because of the effects of inflation in those countries. So do we see interest rates rising into positive territory, which would signal to us the beginning of the end for gold? Well the Federal Reserve has indicated that they're planning to hold interest rates at the current levels certainly until the end of 2014. The short answer is the interest rate cycle will turn when things get a little better. Our expectation is that won't be for another three to five years. In point of fact our expectation is that at the run rate of gold price increases that we've seen over the last decade, continuing for three to five years would suggest to us that gold is actually only half way through its bull run in price terms. We think it could top out at $3 500 an ounce around 2016 and 2017. Looking beyond that, I think, is a mug's game. One can take a view over the next short few years but we generally feel that the market remains supply constrained, the investment demand remains robust, the dire economic situation will remain in place for a short few years and the compound effect of the increases we've had would suggest, as I say, a gold price of $3 500 in a short few years. GEOFF CANDY: What would the make-up of the gold market look like in that scenario? Say we get to 2017, the gold price is around $3 000 an ounce - clearly that's quite a high price to pay for gold jewellery. What are we likely to see as a split between investment, jewellery and other types of sectors of the market? ROSS NORMAN: Well clearly as investment demand comes to the fore, as I mentioned earlier it's rising very, very sharply - currently over $80bn worth investment gold sold last year - at those levels, yes, there'll be a significant throttling off of jewellery demand at those higher levels compensated for, and more, by investment demand. So it will be very much an investment-led business. Having said that, should the market settle a little lower we would expect that jewellery demand will pick up some of the slack, particularly in markets which are, shall we say, more price sensitive such as India and China whereas of course in Western Europe there are significant margins attached to gold jewellery. So those markets in particular will struggle more than most, so we would expect the emerging market nations' jewellery demand to cushion any possible fall in the gold market should it get to that $3 000 level. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...tail&id=92730 |
| World Gold Council report shows steady Q1 gold price rise Posted: 19 Apr 2012 11:00 PM PDT Disappointing new unemployment benefits and housing data from the US cast a shadow over markets yesterday, underscoring the still fragile nature of the US economy. Sales of previously owned US homes ... |
| SHFE Paves the Way for Silver Futures Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:42 PM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: While another paper futures exchange, with 7% margins and the prospects for actual rule of law, look for the SHFE to take business and volume Eastward and away from the COMEX and the dollar markets. The launch of silver futures trading on the SHFE will help silver-related companies hedge against silver fluctuations in the world market, give China more sway in determining global silver prices, and offer another investment option for the nation's small investors, experts told the Global Times. China's miners, manufacturers, retailers and other enterprises, which rely on the precious metal, will undoubtedly welcome the start of domestic silver futures trading, which will allow them to hedge against fluctuating global silver prices, Li Ning, a gold analyst from Shanghai Cifco Futures, told the Global Times. China's silver producers would likely short sell the contract in order to offset financial losses if global silver prices slump, while manufacturers will naturally turn to holding long positions in the future if concerns about rising silver prices emerge, Li explained. The daily trading volume of delayed silver product at the Shanghai Gold Exchange skyrocketed by nearly 300 percent between September 2008 and September 2011, according to a report from Everbright Futures Co Ltd. Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com |
| COMEX Reduces Silver Margins Yet Again Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:40 PM PDT
from silverseek.com: After raising margin requirements for silver futures contracts eight times last year, the CME Group has decided to lower margins yet again, after having last lowered them on February 13th. Last year's margin requirement hikes increased the cost of holding silver futures positions by 80 percent and was one of the key factors contributing to silver's sharp decline last May. On April 16th, margin requirements for COMEX 5,000 ounce silver futures contracts were reduced from $21,600 to $18,900, while maintenance margin was lowered from $16,000 to $14,000. Members of the exchange and traders denominated as hedgers margins were reduced from $16,000 to $14,000. The CME Group Position on Margins Despite the official position taken by the CME Group, that they have no intention of influencing the market with their margin requirements, the fact is that by making positions harder to maintain, an influence on the market is inevitable. Keep on reading @ silverseek.com |
| Revolutionary Policy and Saving in Silver Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:37 PM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: entral America has been on the rise when it comes to strong leadership with good ideas on money. Earlier this year, agroup of top Guatemalan businessmen spoke with Hugo Salinas Price, a Mexican Billionaire graduate of University of Pennsylvania's Wharton school of business, telling him of their plans for great improvements to their country, with a desire to increase the unity of their people. Salinas Price said that this desire to put citizens first makes these businessmen statesmen of Guatemala, and that they should circulate silver coin for the best interests of the people. In an interview with Hera Research, Hugo Salinas Price comments: "In México we have a Congress that is quite well aware of the importance of this [type of] legislation and it has broad support both in the Senate and in the Chamber of Deputies, which is like the House of Representatives in the U.S. The idea is well understood and approved, but there is a problem." Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
| 329,000 Oz of Silver into JPM Vaults Wed Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:35 PM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: Yesterday we advised readers that JP Morgan had reported a nearly impossible exactly 720,000.000 ounce physical silver deposit into eligible vaults, which in reality was likely merely a paper deposit. Our friends in JP must be a hurtin for the phyzz, as today's COMEX warehouse update reveals a 329,000 ounce silver transfer from HSBC to JP Morgan vaults was completed Wednesday. Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com |
| Syria Liquidating Gold to Mitigate Sanctions Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:25 PM PDT
from israelnationalnews.com: Syria is moving to liquidate its gold reserves to raise revenue as Western and Arab sanctions targeting its central bank and oil exports cut into its cash reserves. Syria's foreign exchange reserves have been halved from about $17 billion, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Tuesday. "Syria is selling its gold at rock bottom prices," he said after a meeting with about 60 nations aimed at coordinating measures against President Bashar al-Assad's government. On February 27, the European Union agreed more sanctions including prohibiting trade in gold and other precious metals with Syrian state institutions, including the central bank. According to reports Syrian officials have been offering to sell gold at a 15 percent discount in discret amounts of 20-30 kilograms, which are easier to move in private sales and online auctions. Keep on reading @ israelnationalnews.com |
| Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:23 PM PDT
from truthingold.blogspot.ca: The bubble is in paper assets, particularly sovereign debt. Historic lows in interest rates mean that prices are at historic highs as rates and prices move inversely. Take into account the solvency factor, and the conclusion is inescapable that such paper assets are in the biggest bubble in history. Sadly, the vast majority of people will not understand this until it is too late and their savings have been destroyed. – Robert Fitzwilson on King World News (link below) Keep on reading @ truthingold.blogspot.ca |
| April 2, 1792 : The US Coinage Act Posted: 19 Apr 2012 10:00 PM PDT History of Gold |
| Watch Gold Trading In Streets Of Greece For Similar Action In Other Nations Posted: 19 Apr 2012 09:22 PM PDT "The hundreds of gold traders and pawn shops that have sprung up across Greece over the past three or four years are rapidly making it into the police's crime bulletins on an almost daily basis." "Behind many of the garish store signs advertising "I buy gold," found on almost every main street in every neighborhood in the country, what is abundantly clear is that laws and regulations stay at the door, as authorities in Greece find themselves stymied by the massive trade in gold and unable to get a grip on the number of such stores that are cropping up or the manner in which they go into business." "The Bank of Greece, which is responsible only for gold traded for investment purposes (in the form of coins, slabs and ingots), has been taken by surprise by the surge in the domestic gold market, but there is little it can do as the street trade in gold is beyond its jurisdiction. What is under its jurisdiction is the "protection of credit," and according to the interpretation of this task in Law 3601 from 2007, this also includes pawn shops, as it is the duty of the Bank of Greece to issue licenses only to certified professionals." "People actually practising the trade, however, and even those doing so legally, evoke a regulation issued by the police in 1996 that allows the Greek police to issue licenses for shops that buy or trade in gold or act as pawnbrokers, differentiating between those who hold valuables for one month and those who can hold them for up to six months." "Even so, the number of licenses issued by the police in recent years in no way justifies the number of stores that are operating in the country, with a recent survey showing that in Attica alone there are currently more than 4,500 establishments trading in gold. Even more obscure than the actual number of such stores operating in Greece is the manner in which they set up shop and do business, as it appears that the only thing most proprietors do is declare their business with the tax authority. The police, meanwhile, appear to conduct spot checks only on the establishments it has on its list. The fact is that the majority of these new pawnbrokers rarely follow the rules, not even in a rudimentary manner, such as keeping the item for the agreed period in its original condition, informing the customer prior to a sale or maintaining a record of the item the customer handed over." "The anarchy that prevails in this newly booming sector also raises questions as to whether the standards of the gold trade are being adhered to when the precious metal is sold or purchased in the form of valuables or melted gold, and whether certificates of quality are issued (and if so, whether they are accurate). Last Monday, Finance Minister Filippos Sachinidis presented Parliament with evidence showing that 674 violations were recorded at the 58 of the 93 businesses audited by the Financial Crimes Squad (SDOE) recently. In 2011, SDOE conducted 1,700 spot checks in which it recorded 1,200 violations." "Responding to a question by two deputies of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) party, Kyriakos Velopoulos and Angelos Kolokotronis, Sachinidis said that the ministry is exploring issuing a framework by ministerial decree to improve the way transactions at pawnshops are recorded in order to better monitor their activities and ensure that all transactions are properly taxed. Meanwhile, police reports are increasingly featuring cases of large shipments of gold and silver being intercepted as they leave Greece for other countries without being accompanied by the proper documentation. The long list of sins that prevail in the gold market is compounded by complaints showing a trend of rising crime related to the businesses, whether these crimes are thefts or even more serious ones such as kidnappings that have been linked to people active in the sector." http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_23569_08/04/2012_437056
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| The Most Important and Extraordinary Chart for 2012: James Turk Posted: 19 Apr 2012 09:17 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverAll was quiet in Far East trading during their Thursday trading session...and volume was almost nonexistent in both gold and silver. But once London opened, a rally of sorts got under way in both metals...and JPMorgan et al had to throw a lot of paper at it to get it under control. Once they did, gold got sold down to it's low of the day [around $1,630 spot] which was shortly before 1:00 p.m. local time in London...and half an hour before the Comex opened in New York. From that low, the gold price struggled higher, but at 9:00 a.m. in New York a more serious rally got under way...which got stopped in its tracks at the London p.m. gold fix a few minutes before 10:00 a.m. Eastern. That proved to be the high tick of the day...which Kitco recorded as $1,655.20 spot. By the end of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. in New York, the gold price had been sold off about fifteen bucks...but it rallied a hair going into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading. Gold closed the Thursday trading day at $1,642.60 spot...up the magnificent sum of sixty cents. Net volume was immense, up 45% from Wednesday at 147,000 contracts.
Silver followed almost the same price path, although it appeared that the low price tick of the day [$31.26 spot] came about 8:40 a.m. in New York. The 9:00 a.m. rally in New York ended at the London p.m. gold fix...and at the precise moment that the silver price blasted through the $32 spot mark. Kitco reported that high tick as $32.16 spot. At that point an eager not-for-profit seller showed up and smacked the silver price down almost 50 cents in about half an hour. Every subsequent rally attempt over the $32 spot mark met with the same fate...and from 12:30 p.m. Eastern time onwards, the silver price traded pretty flat. Silver closed at $31.80 spot...up 17 whole cents from Wednesday's close. One can only image how high it would have gone if 'da boyz' hadn't shown up to do what they do best. Net volume was up an astonishing 40% from the previous day at 37,000 contracts...and as I said earlier, it's obvious that they had to throw a lot of paper at these metals to keep them under control.
The dollar index didn't do a lot until about 6:40 a.m. in London when it began to roll over...and by 9:40 a.m. BST the index was down about 25 basis points. That was its low of the day...and from there it rallied until 7:30 a.m. in New York...and that proved to be the high of the day. It more or less held that high before heading south shortly after the Comex trading session began...and by 10:20 a.m. in New York it had bottomed out after dropping about 30 basis points. From there it recovered a bit going into the close...and closing at the same number it closed at every day this week...about 79.57. The dollar index was almost the inverse of what happened in gold and silver...which is what one would normally expect, with all other external factors being the same. But it doesn't explain why 'da boyz' had to throw so much paper at it in London and New York when the dollar index was heading south. It's obvious, at least to me, that the precious metals prices were going to 'overreact' to the upside to these down-side moves in the dollar...and that was obviously a no-no.
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price action, but could not hold their early gains...and they declined until 12:30 p.m...which was the end of the New York sell-off in the gold price after the high at the London p.m. gold fix. The HUI traded sideways from there...finishing down a smallish 0.13%.
The silver stocks finished mixed to down...but Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index managed to eke out a miniscule gain of 0.17%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 48 gold and 35 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan were the long/stoppers of note on both metals. The link to that action is here. There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but over at SLV, an authorized participant withdrew 1,456,278 troy ounces of silver...which came within a 105 ounces of the exact amount that an authorized participant deposited on Monday. Go figure! Since the silver price has traded virtually sideways all week, I would assume that this silver was moved because it was needed more urgently elsewhere. There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 328,996 troy ounces of silver on Wednesday...and also shipped 351,095 ounces of the stuff out the door as well. The link to that action is here. Before getting into the stories for today, here are three graphs that were sent my way by Washington state reader S.A. yesterday. The first one is headlined "Federal Surplus or Deficit"...and it goes back a hundred years or so. You can see where the wheels started falling off when Nixon yanked the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971.
(Click on image to enlarge) The next two charts show the ratio of the gold price vs. the euro and the yen over the last three years.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge) Later yesterday evening, Nick Laird added to the list of graphs with this one...along with the following comments... "Just noticed these numbers and thought I'd plot them up. "They show the new depository for JPM and their silver holdings. And amongst all the depositories it stands out loud - 10 million ounces [added] in a month. "One can only presume that they are stocking this silver on behalf of their clients. But then that might be wrong...."
(Click on image to enlarge) Nick's timing on this graph is perfect, because I mentioned in my Thursday column that JPMorgan's silver stash in its Comex-approved depository had just passed the 13 million troy ounce mark...and more was added on Thursday as well. What I wasn't aware of, was how fast it was being added during the last thirty days. I'm impressed. I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you find something of interest in the ones I've selected. In the precious metals, JPMorgan and HSBC USA hold 99.9% of all the gold and silver derivative contracts held by U.S. banks. A Return to the Gold Standard, or Gold Behind Currencies: Julian Phillips. QE3 is now 80%-90% guaranteed...and I'm Going All-In Gold if it Dips: Stephen Leeb ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeShareholders Strike BackAt Citigroup's annual meeting, owners of the stock voted 55 to 45 against a $50 million executive pay package, including $15 million for CEO Vikram Pandit. Shareholders have every right to be upset with Vikram. Over the last decade, Citigroup has had the worst stock price performance of the big banks, but consistently had some of the highest executive compensation. Now, the vote is non-binding, but the chairman of Citigroup Dick Parsons said he took it seriously, and promised the board would consider it carefully. This story was posted over at the foxbusiness.com website on Wednesday...and I thank reader George Findlay for sending it along. The link is here.  Sean Egan: No Basis for SEC to Accuse Ratings FirmSean Egan told CNBC Thursday the Securities and Exchange Commission had no reason to charge his credit-rating firm with intentional misstatements when it applied to be a "nationally recognized'' rating agency. Egan spoke before Egan-Jones counsel Alan Futerfas told Reuters later Thursday the SEC had voted to file civil charges against the agency. Futerfas said the SEC did not indicate what relief it is seeking as part of the enforcement action, which has yet to be formally filed. West Virginia reader Elliot Simon, who sent me this story, was wondering out loud if this "could be retaliation for their having lowered again the credit rating of dear old Uncle Sam?" Nothing would surprise me. This story was posted over at the cnbc.com website late yesterday afternoon...and the link is here.  Derivatives: The Unregulated Global Casino for BanksSo you think you know what a trillion dollars looks like? Then try to imagine $228 trillion. That's the amount of derivatives held by the nine largest U.S. banks. A derivative is a legal bet (contract) that derives its value from another asset, such as the future or current value of oil, government bonds or anything else.Here's a pictorial of the derivatives held by the nation's largest banks...and the pile of money they have bet in the derivatives market. This is a must read for sure...and I thank Nick Laird for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours. The link is here.  Derivatives Lobby Has U.S. Regulators on the RunThe derivatives industry is squeezing Washington like a python. Desperate to control the tone and thrust of derivatives regulation, industry lobbyists have been swarming over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which is writing derivatives rules as mandated by the Dodd-Frank reform law. In case their lobbying falls short, the industry -- largely dealer banks and commodities firms -- has been pushing legislation that would preempt the rulemaking process and tie the agencies' hands. So far, no fewer than 10 such derivatives bills have been introduced in the House; two have passed and several more have cleared committee. Not satisfied with that, influential lawmakers have been not so subtly warning regulators to go easy on derivatives. This is incredibly intimidating: Congress controls the agencies' budgets, and the increase in workload mandated by Dodd-Frank leaves them woefully short on funds. This Roger Lowenstein piece was posted over at the bloomberg.com website on Tuesday. And in light of the previous story, is another absolute must read as well. I pulled this story out of yesterday's King Report...and the link is here.  French-German Relations: What a Hollande Victory Would Mean for MerkelGerman Chancellor Merkel has made it clear that she would like to see French President Nicolas Sarkozy win a second term. Indeed, if his challenger François Hollande emerges victorious in the country's upcoming election, she could face isolation in Europe. But a Sarkozy re-election might be problematic, too. As Europe continues to integrate both economically and politically, the outcomes of national elections have grown in importance to reach beyond their own borders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel knows that, and it's why she will travel on Sunday to Paris, where voters will be heading to the polls in the first round of the French presidential elections. For Merkel, this is an election like no other, and one that is even more important to her than many German state elections. Whoever wins in France will help drive European policy by her side. If the victor proves to be Hollande, who differs with Merkel's closely allied partner Sarkozy on many issues, not the least of which involve rescuing of the euro, things could become uncomfortable for her, both in Brussels and at home in Berlin. This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is Roy Stephens' first offering of the day. The link is here.  German tempers boil over back-door euro rescuesControversy is raging in Germany over soaring "payments" by the Bundesbank to shore up Europe's monetary system and cope with a tidal wave of capital flight from southern Europe. Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany's IFO Institute, said German taxpayers are facing a dangerous rise in credit risk from a plethora of bail-out schemes. "The euro-system is near explosion," he told Austria's Economics Academy on Thursday. Dr Sinn said Germany is on the hook for much of the €2.1 trillion (£1.72 trillion) in rescue measures for EMU debtors - often by the back-door - that will saddle Germans with ruinous losses one day. "It is a horror scenario," he said, warning that the euro system is splitting friendly countries into blocs of mutually hostile creditors and debtors, exactly the opposite of what was hoped. This offering from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was posted on The Telegraph's website early in their evening. The story is courtesy of Roy Stephens, of course...and the link is here.  German 'hypocrisy' over Greek military spending has critics up in armsA few months before submarines became the talk of Athens, Yiannis Panagopoulos, who heads the Greek trade union confederation (GSEE), found himself sitting opposite Angela Merkel at a private meeting the German chancellor had called of European trade unionists in Berlin. When it came to his turn to address the leader, he instinctively popped the question that many in Greece have wanted to ask. "After running through all the reasons why austerity wasn't working in my country I brought up the issue of defence expenditure. Was it right, I asked, that our government makes so many weapons purchases from Germany when it obviously couldn't afford such deals and was slashing wages and pensions?" Merkel's reaction was instant. "She immediately said: 'But we never asked you to spend so much of your GDP on defence,'" Panagopoulos recalled. "And then she mentioned the issue of outstanding payments on submarines she said Germany had been owed for over a decade." Greek profligacy may be blamed for triggering the debt crisis that now threatens to tear the eurozone apart, but if there is one area where Berlin is less excoriating of state largesse it is in Athens's extravagant taste for arms. This is a very interesting |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 20 2012 Posted: 19 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT |
| Craig Smith: Gold Standard Possible Posted: 19 Apr 2012 08:46 PM PDT Alt Investors interviews Craig Smith who suggests a Gold Standard Possible. from altinvestorshangout: ~TVR |
| Posted: 19 Apr 2012 07:16 PM PDT - Excerpt GEAB N°60 (December 16, 2011) -  LEAP/E2020 is a think-tank that certainly has a good knowledge of the United States, with contributors and subscribers there... and nearly two million American readers of its GEAB public announcements, but it is a European think-tank, not American. So we hesitated long and hard before responding positively to the request of many of our US subscribers that we should make some recommendations to help the country out of the impasse in which it finds itself. We are often highly critical of the absurd and unjustified advice that US leaders and experts offer to Europeans. It is therefore important for us not to do what we criticize in others. So we decided, first, to be brief, secondly, to limit ourselves to the institutional system and, finally, we bring to mind that each political entity has its own internal logic, its specific constraints, a base of values and ideals which belong to its citizens ... and it is often unrealistic for outsiders to pretend to understand them and integrate them into advice. These limits having been set, here are some ideas that may be useful in the debate that is beginning in the United States on the institutional future of the country. 1st proposal: Make the debates and discussions on the Constitution universal It is neither a sacred, nor a perfect text. It embodies the political ideas of the United States founders and is necessarily marked with the seal of its time: the late eighteenth century. These same "founding fathers" would certainly be the first today to advise Americans of the twenty-first century to reconsider the whole of the institutional structure they have been devised. Two hundred years is very old for a constitution and the world of 2011 has almost no relation to that of 1787. Those who sanctify the political texts in the name of tradition or respect for the "founders" are usually the biggest current beneficiaries of the system and quite simply don't want to lose the privileges it hands out to them. 2nd proposal: Reconsider institutions' geographic location The geographical location of places of power and the nature of this power are always linked intimately. Contradictory to the country's federal concept, the United States actually has a hyper-centralized structure of political power: everything happens in Washington. Here we find a trait shared by two other old Western institutional systems: the British system where everything happens in London; and the French system where everything happens in Paris. This used to reflect the state of the transport infrastructure and communications of the eighteenth and nineteenth century (horses, stagecoach, steam train, mail) and is, therefore, very poorly adapted to twenty-first century societies characterized by the Internet, planes, high speed trains and satellites. On the other hand, hyper-centralization facilitates the capture of political power by the elite who self-renew, closed to the rest of the country, and developing incestuous relationships with the most powerful private interests because it encourages the emergence of an atmosphere of a "power bubble" cut off from the rest of the country. It is very surprising that a country as vast as the United States continues, in the twenty-first century, to see all its institutions concentrated in a city in the East of the country, thousands of kilometres from 75% of the population (West Coast , South Coast, the South of the East Coast...). The polycentrism of the federal state, that's to say, the distribution of major government institutions in a number of the country's major cities, would overcome this handicap and thus bring the country's political and administrative elite closer to all of the population. Two arguments are generally used to oppose institutional polycentrism: "too high a cost" and a marked "inefficiency". They can be very easily scanned from the back of the hand: on the one hand, all large companies now operate in a network based on this polycentric model... and they are not known to look to increase operating costs; on the other hand, efficiency is a relative concept in political terms based on the relevance and success of decisions taken. Current hypercentralized systems, such as Washington, are characterized almost unanimously as now being truly incapable of taking informed decisions and successfully driving the chosen policies: there again, functioning in a network characteristic of polycentric systems, demonstrates its effectiveness in our societies on a daily basis as opposed to the pyramid functioning of centralized systems. 3rd proposal: Reduce the situations for potential decisional deadlock It's useful to eliminate from the system the maximum of procedures that enable small minorities to block general progress. In the case of the United States, this means reducing the discrepancy between demographic representation and States' representation: it would be useful to increase the number of members in the House of Representatives to strengthen the people's representation and, on the other hand, reduce the ability to lock down the Senate by States with a small population. This latter option can be done either by adding a demographic variable to the number of senators per State, or greatly reducing the qualifying majorities required for decisions, so as to limit the potential for blockage by a small minority. 4th proposal: Sharply reduce the influence of money in Federal elections Payment of candidates' campaign expenses by the Federal state and the introduction of selection via the requirement of a minimum number of citizens' or elected officials' signatures to become a candidate would prevent most of the current distortion practiced for the benefit of large corporations and the super-rich. 5th proposal: Integrate education into Federal jurisdiction As analysed in this issue, LEAP/E2020 considers that the collapse of US educational system is at the heart of the current crisis in the country. And we think that it's impossible for the United States to exit this crisis other than with long term weakness if the education system is not put back on its feet. Under the pretext of avoiding a "Federal grip", the current institutional situation leaves, de facto, education as no-one's political responsibility, or rather it is left in the hands of those who make financial gains from education. This is the worst of situations as it consists of leaving the country's future in anyone's hands. The country must slice through this: either there is in fact a Federal jurisdiction and the president and Congress become directly responsible for the success or failure of the US educational system, or he entrusts it to the States and clears the Federal level of any responsibility making each state accountable for the quality of education to its own citizens. We hope that these ideas may be useful to some of our American subscribers. |
| Bullion Treads Water in Turbulent Seas Posted: 19 Apr 2012 06:44 PM PDT Gold has been somewhat of a disappointment to many analysts and investors who, as of a few months ago, were still anticipating higher prices again this year. But the year is not over, nor is gold's long-term secular bull market. |
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