saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- With U.S. Dollar As Carry Currency, Fed Can't Tighten
- Dollar Tree: Discount Is Hard To Find In This Retailer
- Tuesday Options Recap: UTX, INTC, SIRI On The Move
- Ted butler: JPM’s TV Appearance
- In search of the Gold of the Payan King
- Precious Metals Déjà Vu For Morgan Stanley?
- For gold to rise physical buyers must return
- 7 Red Weeks...
- Abigail Field: Hiding the Enforcement Fraud at the Heart of the Mortgage Settlement
- ECB: increase of oz7,4 million in gold and gold receivables over the last quarter
- Japan Keeps Interest Rates Below 0.1% - Further Debasing Japanese Yen
- “Code is law.” Literally.
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/10/12
- Confiscation of Gold and Silver Coins Will Not Happen - so says Greg Hunter.
- Timberline to Acquire 100 Percent Ownership of Butte Highlands Project
- Is There Gold in Fort Knox?
- Keiser: Return of the Silver Liberation Army
- Physical Gold Bullion Demand Picks Up as India Strike Ends
- Japan Keeps Rates Below 0.1%, Debasing Yen
- Crude Oil, Copper May Rise on Fed Officials’ Comments
- Gold bulls cheered by resumption of Indian gold trading
- Charts Point Lower
- JPMorgan...Dutch Crossword Puzzles...and Silver
- Die Zukunft der USA /2012-2016 (3. Teil) - Der Zerfall der sozialen und politischen Struktur
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 10 2012
- Buyer Beware: Counterfeit Silver
- The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 3) - The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric
- Silver Update: “Welfare State”
- Avenir des USA / 2012-2016 (3° partie) - La décomposition du tissu socio-politique US
- Gold Prices Are Set for Further Decline
| With U.S. Dollar As Carry Currency, Fed Can't Tighten Posted: 10 Apr 2012 06:56 AM PDT With the long standing and repeatedly reaffirmed Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) from the Fed since the 2008 crisis, it is safe to assume that USD has replaced the Japanese yen as the carry currency of choice. Likely major destinations of the carry trade include British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and BRICS currencies (Chinese yuan may be diminishing lately). The euro had been the primary destination in the early days of ZIRP era, before PIIGS had a Wikipedia entry, and it might still be a significant destination today given its size, although the risk in exchange rate has risen a great deal considering the ongoing euro crisis. I even suspect that one reason for JPY's stubborn strength is the unwinding of the massive carry trade in the decades prior and the shift to USD. If this is indeed the case, then it is one more trap the Fed has Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dollar Tree: Discount Is Hard To Find In This Retailer Posted: 10 Apr 2012 06:36 AM PDT By Value in Stock Market: Similar to AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, Dollar Tree's (DLTR) business is largely driven by macroeconomic conditions. This is very obvious based on the stock performance of Dollar Tree over the past ten years. It had been stagnant until 2008 when the financial crisis broke out. People were hurting, so they switched to bargain retailers like Dollar Tree. From 2008 to 2012, in the high unemployment environment, Dollar Tree's stock has increased 400%. Click to enlarge: More evidence can be observed when putting the stock price history of Dollar Tree and another bargain retailer, Dollar General (DG) together. The stock market performances of these companies are very well correlated, indicating that the economic situation has been a major driving force behind the bullish run of these companies. Click to enlarge: Interestingly, Dollar Tree's gross margin has not changed much from 2002 to 2011, hovering at between 34.2% and 36.4%. Its operating Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tuesday Options Recap: UTX, INTC, SIRI On The Move Posted: 10 Apr 2012 06:17 AM PDT By Frederic Ruffy: Stock market averages are deep in the red on worries about the debt crisis. Sharp losses across European equity markets after bond yields rose in Spain and Italy set the table for morning weakness on Wall Street. The domestic news flow is light and includes just one sole report on Wholesale Inventories, which rose .9 percent in February. The data had no visible market impact and the volatility seems primarily due to worries about the impact from the debt crisis on the banking industry and global economic growth. Crude oil is down $1.5 to $101 per barrel, but gold caught a late-day safe-haven bid and is now up $17 to $1661 an ounce. The benchmark ten-year Bond is up 18/32nd and its yield has dipped back below 2 percent. CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) gains 2.17 to 20.98 amid defensive trading in the options market, with 8.7 million calls and 8.6 Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ted butler: JPM’s TV Appearance Posted: 10 Apr 2012 05:47 AM PDT JPM's TV Appearance Theodore Butler |April 10, 2012 - 7:35am There was a very interesting and potentially significant development dropped into the silver equation this week. I'm speaking of the appearance of the head of commodities for JPMorgan, Blythe Masters, in a short interview Thursday on CNBC. There has already been widespread reaction to the clip and I must admit that it touched off a whirlwind of different thoughts in my mind. Quite frankly, I'm glad I've had a bit of time to sort them out before commenting. If you haven't had the opportunity to view the segment, here's the link. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46969993 I first discovered and revealed that JPMorgan was the big concentrated short in COMEX silver in the fall of 2008 (having inherited the position from Bear Stearns). http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1226344970.php Since then, Ms. Masters has become somewhat of a lightening rod in the silver manipulation discussion world. Although I don't believe I have ever mentioned her by name, she has been, more often than not, vilified in most Internet quarters. While I can empathize with the extreme sentiments that can arise from the outrage over the lingering silver crime in progress and the damage that it has caused to many, I don't see much benefit in personal attack. Now, more than ever, we need to focus on the facts. Since my thoughts are varied, let me see if I can put them into some semblance of order. First, let me give you my visceral feelings and then settle into a more measured and objective analysis. There were quite a few important statements that did come from the interview that go to the very heart of my allegations of manipulation in silver by JPMorgan. I won't dwell on my knee-jerk reactions, but I do feel I should make them known. There is no doubt that this wasn't a spontaneous event. The presentation wasn't accidental. I've watched CNBC fairly religiously for as long as it has been in existence (but with the sound muted for much of the day) and the last firm recollection I have of any mention of a silver manipulation was more than three years ago, when Joe Kernan commented on the Wall Street Journal article on Sep 25 2008 about a CFTC investigation into silver. I remember him joking about some new Hunt Bros plot to drive prices higher. Never again have I heard the silver manipulation mentioned on that network. CNBC has never seriously broached the subject to my knowledge. So I was taken back when the reporter specifically asked about the allegations of manipulation in silver, as if they were widely recognized as common knowledge. I got a special kick out of the reference to all these allegations coming from the "blogosphere." (As opposed to the mainstream media, I suppose). It would be safe to say that the interview tried to present JPMorgan as a contributor to worthy causes, who would never dream of manipulating silver and as a strong proponent of financial regulatory reform. All of JPMorgan's positions in silver were claimed to be non-directional and only transacted to accommodate legitimate client hedging needs. To the typical CNBC viewer, who has little interest in silver to begin with, I would imagine that the segment appeared little more than a puff piece on an obscure topic. But I doubt that this was all that it was. There was an intent and purpose to this presentation, as many have already suggested.That's what makes it so potentially significant. To my knowledge, this is the very first time that JPMorgan has openly acknowledged the allegations against it for manipulating the price of silver. Please think about that. It's been more than three years, dozens of class-action lawsuits and a ton of reputational abuse (remember "sink JPM, buy a Silver Eagle"?) and this is JPMorgan's first rebuttal? Years ago, I used to wait for process servers and Fed Ex-delivered cease and desist demands; but I had just about given up on JPMorgan ever responding since so much time had passed. Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad not be sued; but I am a little underwhelmed with how JPM finally did respond. I can't help but ask myself – why now and in this tepid a manner? A public relations campaign on CNBC to an audience not remotely aware of the allegations to begin with hardly seems the lasting solution to making the problem go away. So what was the motivation? Here's where all the knee-jerk conclusions come in that just might be correct – they are feeling the heat, maybe they know something may be forthcoming from the CFTC and are trying to stay ahead of the fall-out. My friend and mentor, Izzy Friedman, says they see the physical shortage about to hit, but none of us can be the fly on the wall and know the details. But we agree that the appearance likely means JPMorgan may be in trouble of some sort. JPM sees no other way out than to claim their COMEX silver short position was and is legitimate and they are prepared to stick to that story come hell or high-water. The beautiful thing is that, no matter what, this is great news. The fact that JPMorgan has spoken up first on the allegations of them manipulating the price of silver and not the CFTC, is particularly good news. (More on that later). Best of all, this may and should open a dialogue on this issue. Ms. Masters gave very reasonably-sounding explanations to the allegations of silver manipulation. But they were very simple explanations offered in the blink of a TV sound bite. To those convinced that silver is not manipulated, her words explained all. To those convinced that silver is manipulated, her statements were false and misleading. That's because the questions and answers in the TV segment were prepared and scripted. But because they only barely penetrated the surface, they fell far short of setting the matter to rest. The great thing is that this can be resolved with just a little further explanation. You see this is not an instance of he said, she said. This is a case of fact and commodity law and the right questions and answers. So let's drill down to the answers given to see if they really addressed the allegations. The main theme advanced by Ms. Masters is that JPMorgan holds no unhedged silver positions and all its short positions are a direct result of offsetting client positions in the OTC or swaps market. Therefore, it matters little to JPMorgan whether the price of silver rises or falls. For the sake of argument, let me stipulate for the moment that JPMorgan has offsetting client positions behind their big net short position on the COMEX. I don't believe there are truly legitimate client positions backing JPMorgan's COMEX short position, but let's set that aside for a moment while I try to show that client offsetting positions or not, JPMorgan's COMEX short position is still manipulative. JPMorgan claims they are not manipulating silver, but those are just words. Their actions are quite different. What's more important, words or actions? The allegations against JPMorgan for silver manipulation are centered on their concentrated short position on the COMEX. Nothing more, nothing less (aside from HFT). Claiming there were some unspecified client positions offsetting the concentrated short position doesn't alter, in any way, the fact that the concentration still exists. The point is not the nature of what may be responsible for the concentrated short position, but the concentrated position itself. Even if JPMorgan owned every ounce of silver they held short on the COMEX in physical form, holding 25% or so of any licensed futures market would be manipulative to the price, in and of itself. It doesn't matter what excuse is given for holding an excessively concentrated market share; such a market share would be manipulative. If a single trader held a 25% share of any other major futures market, say in crude oil or corn, there would be emergency meetings and decrees to break that concentration before the sun went down. Farmers would be descending on Washington, DC in tractors if a New York big bank held a short position equal to 25% of the Chicago Board of Trade's corn futures market. It wouldn't matter one wit to the regulators what was behind the position. Such a market share in a major commodity futures market would be unthinkable. But 25% has been JPMorgan's usual share of the net COMEX silver (minus spreads) since it took over Bear Stearns and often it has been much larger than 25%. JPMorgan can't deny that market share in silver as that is borne out in government statistics, so it is doing the next best thing - trying to change the issue into what may be behind the position. What's behind the position doesn't matter; the position itself matters. I've often said that I think JPMorgan is stuck with their excessively concentrated silver short position on the COMEX. This TV attempt to explain it all away strengthens my conviction. The thing about the concentrated short position is that there has always been one big silver short holder on the COMEX. It started with Drexel Burnham, got moved to AIG Trading, on to Bear Stearns and, finally, to JPMorgan. My sense is that it won't be passed on again. JPMorgan is the final holder and I sense them knowing that may be behind the attempt to explain it away. Never, in the 25 years I have been engaged in attempting to end the silver manipulation, has there ever been a public acknowledgement from the big silver short. There is one now. If holding a giant COMEX short position is such a sweet deal, why wasn't JPMorgan holding such a position prior to Bear Stearns' demise? If legitimate client positions stand behind JPM's short position that implies most of the world's silver hedgers only do business with JPM, no one else. Why aren't other banks and financial institutions looking to compete with JPMorgan on the short side of silver and edge them out? That's because no other firm wants to get stuck like JPM is stuck and reduced to offering flimsy excuses to pre-arranged softball questions on TV. The CFTC tracks and reports positions and concentration data by individual trading entities based upon who controls the account. If a legitimate hedger wants to sell short on the COMEX to hedge production or inventory it can do so in its own name and for its own account. It doesn't need to join with others and do it in someone else's name and in concentrated form. There is no legitimate reason why JPMorgan's clients can't hedge in their own names to the extent JPMorgan is claiming, especially since allegations of concentration and manipulation are being lodged against JPMorgan. You would think that JPMorgan would be doing more than pleading their case on TV. One would think JPMorgan would advise clients to hold the COMEX short positions in the customers own names to reduce JPM's concentration. Unless, of course, that there is only one major client behind JPMorgan's concentrated COMEX silver short position. In other words, if JPMorgan is representing only one or a very few related clients and that is what backs the concentrated short position on the COMEX, then that raises the issue to a whole new level of possible criminality. If JPMorgan is facilitating and enabling an unnamed client or clients in holding a concentrated short position by agreeing to put it in JPM's name on the COMEX, then JPM may be the transfer mechanism in what can only be described as hiding the identity of a market manipulator. The terms aiding and abetting and fraudulent conveyance come to mind. In many ways, particularly if the real hidden short is foreign and outside US jurisdiction, that's even worse than JPMorgan holding the position itself. Enabling a foreign entity to evade US commodity law and manipulate a US futures market? This gets worse the deeper you dig. Much is made of the great size of the OTC market when compared to the COMEX. While I think that claim is bogus, many insist that the OTC market (including the LBMA) is much bigger than COMEX. In fact, the client positions that JPMorgan claim backs the concentrated short position on the COMEX, are implied to be OTC positions. But if the OTC market is so much bigger than the COMEX and JPM is the acknowledged leader in OTC trading, then why doesn't JPMorgan just hedge its client's OTC positions with other OTC positions? Why resort to selling short so excessively on the COMEX where it gets picked up in CFTC data? If JPMorgan offset their clients' OTC positions with other OTC positions, we wouldn't be having this discussion. All these positions wouldn't be included in the COT and Bank Participation Report data and I wouldn't be able to analyze and write about it. This is also what makes all the threats about traders abandoning our listed and regulated exchange traded markets to the regulatory-free big international OTC markets a pile of junk. Because the COMEX is the most important derivatives market in the world for precious metals, any large silver derivatives position must be reflected in COMEX positioning. If JPMorgan could just make this COMEX concentrated short position disappear by dealing instead on the OTC market, they would have done so long ago. The simple answer is that they can't because the OTC market is smaller than the COMEX. JPM is reduced to trying to convince anyone who will listen that the COMEX concentration doesn't matter because the real big short is someone else hiding behind a tree that you can't see because of client confidentiality. It's no wonder many folks are coming to hate the banks, because the banks always have a slick answer to what we all know is simply bad behavior. How about the reporter asking JPMorgan what the heck are they doing trading in silver in the first place? Shouldn't they be out taking deposits and making loans like banks are supposed to? The real problem is that the COMEX sets the price of silver for the world. Therefore, JPMorgan's concentrated short position, by its size, unduly influences the price of silver. Manipulation aside, this gives JPMorgan control of what price its clients transact in the supposed private silver hedges with JPM. This is a serious conflict and certainly not in the clients' best interest. What fair and open good business practice would permit JPMorgan to first set the price on the COMEX and then use that price to transact hedges with clients at the "set" price? It is because I go so far back with this silver manipulation that I see it in a different perspective than most folks. Eight years ago, on May 14, 2004, the CFTC made public a long letter which denied that any silver manipulation existed. The letter took aim at me (not mentioning me by name) and concluded that investors had best be very careful before investing in silver. On the day of the letter, the price of silver was around $5.60. http://www.cftc.gov/files/opa/press0...lverletter.pdf Almost to the day four years later, the CFTC released another long public letter, dated May 13, 2008, which basically re-iterated that there was no silver manipulation or undue concentration on the short side on the COMEX. On the date of this letter, the price of silver was $16.66. http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...report0508.pdf I'm not much for cycles, but it would appear that we may be at the anniversary of a four-year cycle that began in 2004. The question is if we will get yet another long-winded and soon disregarded public letter from the CFTC assuring us there is nothing wrong in silver or will it play out differently this time? The remarkable thing is that the first two CFTC letters had absolutely no effect on persuading growing numbers of observers that silver wasn't manipulated. Even more remarkable is that the basic issues haven't changed over the past 8 years. The only thing that changed was the big silver short. In 2004, it was AIG Trading; in 2008, it was Bear Stearns. Today, it is JPMorgan. One thing I am encouraged by in JPMorgan's breaking of the silence is that it may indicate real change. Prior to now, the CFTC always did the dirty work for the silver manipulators. By publicly denying that a silver manipulation existed in 2004 and 2008, the CFTC automatically protected and coddled the silver manipulators, who didn't have to answer to anyone. This CFTC cover also protected, effectively, the silver crooks from civil litigation. The COMEX commercial crooks, including the CME Group, could always hide behind the CFTC's skirts and proclaim that they were highly regulated and if they were doing anything wrong, the CFTC would say so. If the CFTC protecting the silver crooks didn't cause your blood to boil, you need new blood. Please don't get me wrong; it is shameful and deplorable that the CFTC has taken no action against the silver manipulators for so long. But one possible advantage to that delay now is that it may be forcing JPMorgan to speak out instead. That's much better. Particularly given how hollow JPM's words were in their first public defense. Of course, the CFTC can still manage to cover themselves with additional shame if they do decide to side with JPM and the CME once again. For the sake of everything that is still good with the US, let's hope they don't. Let's hope that the CFTC continues to allow JPMorgan to explain its concentrated short position. Ted Butler http://www.silverseek.com/commentary...-tv-appearance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In search of the Gold of the Payan King Posted: 10 Apr 2012 05:35 AM PDT BC alter | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Precious Metals Déjà Vu For Morgan Stanley? Posted: 10 Apr 2012 04:50 AM PDT In the middle of 2007, Morgan Stanley paid out $4.4 million to settle a class-action lawsuit initiated against it by its own clients. Why were Morgan Stanley's clients suing it? They alleged that Morgan Stanley took money from them for buying precious metals on their behalf, took money from them for "storage" of these precious metals accounts, but only pretended to purchase the bullion. Morgan Stanley (reading from the standard Wall Street script) denied the allegations, but settled the case "to avoid the cost and distraction of continued litigation." Before moving on to Morgan's Stanley's latest exploits in the precious metals market, this deserves a few comments. First of all, if Morgan Stanley did only pretend to purchase bullion on behalf of its clients, while charging them for the "bullion" and storage fees on that imaginary bullion, we have a word for such actions: fraud. So if Morgan Stanley was guilty of swindling its own clients in this manner then why wasn't it required to acknowledge its guilt? The answer is simple. Morgan Stanley is based in The Land of Fraud (aka the United States of America). In The Land of Fraud swindling people (whether total strangers or long-term clients) is a way of life – just ask a former Goldman Sachs employee. Thus the Wall Street banksters can commit fraud without ever having to admit fraud. Indeed, Bloomberg explicitly confirmed that the SEC's commit-but-never-admit policy has been standard practice for more than four decades, with such settlements then rubber-stamped by the U.S. judiciary. Bloomberg noted this institutionalized corruption when it criticized a (lone) U.S. judge who has had the temerity to challenge the commit-but-never-admit doctrine: …As part of the agreement, New York-based Citigroup neither admitted nor denied the allegations, a clause which has been standard in such settlements for at least four decades. But it gets better for the Wall Street fraud factories. Not only can they commit acts of fraud with impunity while never having to admit to them, but the "fine" they receive after being caught in the act is rarely more than 10% of their proceeds of crime – and often much, much less. A classic example was the travesty of American Justice when Wachovia Bank was caught laundering nearly $400 billion dollars of drug cartel profits. It paid less than $200 million in fines and penalties. This was less than 2% of the bank's 2009 profits, and less than 0.05% of the drug-money it laundered. Given the colossal size of the crime, given the hundreds (if not thousands) of people who would have been murdered to produce those profits, given the tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people who would have become addicted to the drugs which produced those profits; one would have thought that Wachovia would have faced the maximum possible wrath of the law. After all, this crime occurred in the country which has foisted its hypocritical "War on Drugs" upon the world. Yet what we saw (and what we always see in The Land of Fraud) was something far less than "a slap on the wrist." The analogy would be a group of serial-rapists who go around buggering their victims with impunity, because not only do they never have to admit to the act of rape; but the "punishment" for their crimes (no matter how frequent, or how aggravated) is never anything worse than a pat on the bum. The implication here is clear with a commit-but-never-admit doctrine which goes back at least 40 years: in the United States the word "fraud" is considered redundant. The presumption of the so-called regulators can only be that all of Wall Street's transactions are fraudulent, and thus classifying any individual Wall Street business deal as a "fraudulent transaction" would be like referring to "wet water" or "cold ice". | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| For gold to rise physical buyers must return Posted: 10 Apr 2012 04:45 AM PDT
from mineweb.com: Since its 2012 peak at the end of February at $1,786.1, gold has lost over $140 an ounce. Much of this fall is on the back of an increasingly firm belief that another bout of quantitative easing in the US is unlikely. Keep on reading @ mineweb.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Apr 2012 04:15 AM PDT I was looking at the netdania weekly silver chart and I noticed we are on the 7th red week in a row, 6 red weeks is very rare and for 7 red weeks I couldnt locate a spree like that back to mid 90s, then the chart was out. Anyone know when the last time we had 7 down weeks in a row?   | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abigail Field: Hiding the Enforcement Fraud at the Heart of the Mortgage Settlement Posted: 10 Apr 2012 04:00 AM PDT By Abigail Caplovitz Field, a freelance writer and attorney who blogs at Reality Check Update: When reading about how "our" government sold us the servicing standards as the big prize in the deal (along with the $25 billion that isn't) even as they agreed the standards wouldn't be meaningfully implemented or enforced, remember that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be rulemaking on servicing during the settlement's duration, with its rules set to take effect in 2013 and 2014, well before the 2015 expiration date of the deal. So the "standards" in this deal are even more useless than they otherwise appear. On Thursday, April 5th U.S. District Court Judge Rosemary M. Collyer announced she had decided to sign off on the "$25 billion" Mortgage Settlement. By "announced", I mean she signed the consent orders all our major law enforcers and the biggest bankers had agreed to, and entered them into the record. Judge Collyer didn't actually say anything about the deal. She didn't let anyone else say anything, either: she didn't hold a public hearing on the deal. In acting silently, Judge Collyer not only okayed the deal's lousy terms, which institutionalize servicer theft and foreclosure fraud, she reinforced the incredibly poor public process that's kept the enforcement fraud at the heart of the deal hidden. Deliberately hidden. Magical Misdirection To understand just how deceptive "our" government and "our" law enforcers have been with us, imagine them as a Shakespearean magician, confessing his thoughts to us as he tries to trick an audience seated just off stage. Hear the magician, as he secretly pleads for his misdirection to work: 'Please, keep focused on this hand, the one with the wand waiving above the shiny new servicing "standards." Pay no attention to what I'm doing with my other hand. Please don't notice me transforming the "standards" into empty promises through the 'magic' of metrics. I must succeed at controlling and guiding your attention, so you fall for my trick! Otherwise, my trick is obvious-my 'magic' is all there in black and white, in Exhibits E and E-1. So don't look there…stay with me, stay focused on the new servicing "standards" and that big sounding "$25 billion"… Think I'm overstating the deliberate deception in selling the Mortgage Settlement as something other than the enforcement fraud it is? Let's review the history. Keeping People Focused on the Servicing "Standards" From the very beginning, the initial deal announcement a year ago, the government tried to sell the premise of the sleight-of-hand to come: Tough law enforcers, banding together, would force the bankers (wearing their mortgage servicing hats) to transform their abusive and illegal standard operating procedures into the basic, 'thou shalt follow the law and deal fairly, in good faith' standards ultimately embodied in Exhibit A. Here's how the Washington Post presented what was happening on March 7, 2011: "The state attorneys general investigating abuses in the mortgage servicing industry said Monday that as they hammer out details of a massive settlement with banks, their main objective remains fixing a system that has subjected consumers to confusion and financial strife." What we're really trying to do is change a dysfunctional system," said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, the point man for a 50-state effort." (bold mine) Fixing servicing, folks, that's what we're doing, fixing servicing. But the Post reported that people wanted more. At the same time Miller was making those statements, protesters organized by the National People's Action network were telling law enforcers to "stiffen their backs", "do justice", and "make Wall Street pay." But the AGs kept guiding everyone's attention back: "Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan sought to comfort the protesters. 'For those consumer advocates who are rallying, we hear you,' she said. 'Laws are not being followed by the servicers. That absolutely has to change.'"Keep your eyes on those shiny new servicing standards we already leaked, folks. At the start, it wasn't clear the misdirection would work. Here's my coverage of those initial leaks. Yves Smith also wasn't buying. We weren't alone; skepticism abounded. But still the misdirection efforts continued. Throughout the year of negotiations leaks regarding servicing, the "$25″ billion, principal reduction, and vague statements of strong enforcement provisions dripped out. We skeptics knew the banks' word is no good, so we hammered on the enforcement issue, confident that at least some of the AGs understood. Heck, Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto sued BofA for breaking its word, and Massachusetts's Martha Coakley sued all five bailed out banks, because they weren't negotiating in good faith. Naive us; in the end all the AGs took the deal, except Oklahoma's, who rejected this enforcement fraud as too harsh. Worst, our demands for transparency and accountability were so ineffective that when the deal was announced on February 9th, with great fanfare and consumer group support, the enforcement terms, particularly the metrics, hadn't seen the light of day. "Our" government's magical misdirection machine was that powerful. On February 9 the government also launched a slick website, www.NationalMortgageSettlement.com that, for the month between deal announcement and deal submission to Judge Collyer, had only an "Executive Summary", a "Fact Sheet", a "Benefits to Servicemembers and Veterans", a "Servicing Standards Highlights" and some "FAQ". That is, only the 'good' stuff–nowhere on the website were the metrics or any other meaningful discussion of the enforcement terms. Servicing Abuses Institutionalized, Not Ended Can you imagine the brouhaha if people had a month to really look at and consider the enforcement terms? The flaws aren't limited to how pathetically weak the compliance metrics are. To recap: no one yet knows which servicing "standards" will take effect when, or if the deadlines will be extended as the deal allows. Until a standard is in effect, there's nothing to measure compliance with. Worse, the the measuring process itself still has to be negotiated, so standards may take effect without a compliance process to verify implementation. Worst, the metrics let the servicers systematically steal from you and defraud the courts without risk of consequence. Heck, even if all servicing standards take effect before the deal expires, and all the work plans are finalized so that all the metrics are being computed, and banker theft rises to the level that a bank fails a metric, no penalty kicks in unless it's the second quarter in a row that the bank failed that metric. How's that for a show of brute law enforcement power by our big bad government? "Our" Justice Department, "our" federal regulators, and "our" attorneys general really transformed the servicers business practices, right? Ironically, on the day that Judge Collyer silently sent the deal into the public record, Bankruptcy Judge Elizabeth Magner issued a stunning indictment of both Wells Fargo's systematic theft from borrowers and its bad faith in negotiations. See Yves Smith on Magner's opinion here, and David Dayen here. One judge wrung more out of Wells for stealing from a single homeowner–$3+ million in punitive damages–than Wells faces for a whole quarter of similarly stealing from many of its borrowers. But let's not get caught up in how bad the deal is; I want to stay focused on the magician's telling us to where to focus our attention so we think he really did pull a bankers-will-obey-the-law rabbit out of his hat. Four days after the deal was announced, the Wall Street Journal published drafts of some of the deal documents. Notably a draft of the metrics or any other part of the enforcement section was missing. The Journal only linked to the deal parts it was given, the ones the power structure magicians wanted us to see: the "Servicing Standards," the "Borrower Relief", and the "Menu of Credits." That is, promises the banks would follow the law going forward, that homeowners would be helped, and for the sophisticated, that the help would be even greater than $25 billion. Just one sentence on enforcement– "Also included in the final deal: terms spelling out what powers are given to the independent monitor overseeing the deal, and rights of action for states if banks are found to run afoul of the terms." No sneak peek at what that the magician's other hand was up to. The very first time that the public had a chance to see that the promise of banker law-abiding going forward was a lie was March 9, 2012, the day the deal documents were filed in court. Even then the misdirection continued. Hiding In Plain Sight Even though the text of Exhibits E and E-1 were now available for viewing, the government steered attention elsewhere, toward the complaint. The complaint is the easiest to read, and it is featured most prominently on lead "negotiator" Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller's website of deal documents. See? "Complaint (PDF)" is in bold, and perhaps larger font, than all the other linked documents below it. Similarly, now that the mortgage deal website is updated to reflect the Judge Collyer-okayed deal, this is how the information is presented to the public: SETTLEMENT DOCUMENTS USDOJ Filing News Release (pdf) Complaint (pdf) Ally/GMAC Consent Judgment (pdf) Bank of America Consent Judgment (pdf) Citi Consent Judgment (pdf) JPMorgan Chase Consent Judgment (pdf) (Note, I can't find JPMorgan Chase's signature on it–the other banks signed on the last pages of theirs, but hey, Judge Collyer signed it and it's uploaded on the official site as JPMorgan's Consent Judgment, so it must be so.) Wells Fargo Consent Judgment (pdf) Consent Judgment Exhibits A-I (pdf) Self-congratulatory press release, the complaint, the bare seven page agreements to the deal (followed by tons of signature pages) and then, at bottom, the no-content labelled "Consent Judgment Exhibits A-I (pdf)". 'What are Exhibits A-I?' someone might wonder. Doesn't sound like important reading. How likely do you think it is that someone will click through, scroll down, find Exhibits E and E-1 and read them? AG Miller's site, complaint highlighting aside, is much better on this point, breaking out each exhibit by bank with labels that tell you what they are. The Justice Department's presentation is in the middle; the complaint tops the list of documents, but isn't bolded; however, the critical exhibits aren't identified in any way. They're simply included with each consent judgment. Since the audience is being steered to the complaint, what do they get if they read it? Well, here's my take, which is basically that the complaint's so harsh sounding it's impossible to understand why we haven't seen a single indictment of a big banker. The harsh language is part of the misdirection: boy do they sound tough on the banks, so surely the deal struck is tough right? Some facts, besides enforcement, were apparently so risky to let the audience see, they weren't included in the complaint though naturally they would have been. That is, the complaint says only something vague about all the origination fraud the banks committed, though it details other kinds of wrongdoing: "67. In the course of their origination of mortgage loans in the Plaintiff States, the Banks have engaged in a pattern of unfair and deceptive practices." (see page 28 at B) To understand how badly the bankers abused consumers when making loans, you need to read the relevant section of the federal release … "D. The United States further contends that it has certain civil claims based on the … following conduct: … [lists 13 different kinds of bad stuff] Why is detailing origination fraud in the document the public is most likely to read risky? Well, consider origination fraud type (e): (e) Valuing the properties used as collateral for such loans… (e) is talking about appraisal fraud, a topic that deserves much pointed attention at a time when so many borrowers are deeply underwater. But for the rampant, lender controlled appraisal fraud inflating the original principal balances, fewer people would be underwater, and those that are would be closer to the surface. …I mean, it might be very difficult to maintain the irresponsible borrower stereotype if millions of people started focusing on origination fraud. And solving the underwater problem doesn't pose such a moral hazard if all those balances were fraudulently inflated by the lenders, does it? Sticking all the origination fraud detail in the complaint looks like an effort to hide truth that could impact policy if only people knew it. So there it is–for over the last year, "our" government has carefully steered your attention where it wants it, maintaining its tough on bankers, fair to the public illusion. Now Judge Rosemary Collyer has played magician's assistant, signing off quietly, not risking redirecting the public's carefully guided attention. So here's the bottom line: will the media and grass roots groups let the trick work all the way through election day? Or will they snap the public out it, break the spell? I mean, just imagine how angry voters would be if the enforcement fraud is seen clearly for what it is. And then the big question is: will the new servicing standards promulgated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau be yet another exercise in misdirection and enforcement fraud? Or will Americans finally get some change we can believe in?
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| ECB: increase of oz7,4 million in gold and gold receivables over the last quarter Posted: 10 Apr 2012 02:53 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Japan Keeps Interest Rates Below 0.1% - Further Debasing Japanese Yen Posted: 10 Apr 2012 01:35 AM PDT gold.ie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Apr 2012 01:18 AM PDT By Lambert Strether, who blogs at Corrente. The Law is the true embodiment –The Lord Chancellor, Iolanthe, Gilbert and Sullivan We can look at the foreclosure crisis as the pre-emininent law enforcement crisis of our time: Elite impunity for crimes committed and still being committed by lenders and servicers (“banksters”) on a massive scale. We can also look the foreclosure crsis as an issue of jurisprudence, where a revolutionary oligarchy seeks to change the nature of law itself. Let’s start with “code ["the stuff that software writers write"] is law,” a terrific meme successfully propagated by Lawrence Lessig in the '90s. From The Industry Standard:
Lessig revised and refined his thinking here in Version 2. From his keynote presentation to the ABA-Tech conference in 2011 starting at 10:36:
I’d like, respectfully, suggest that Lessig has the right meme, but the wrong content backing up the meme. As I hope to show, code is indeed law — and, increasingly, literally — but not in the clean, elegant, hip, candy-colored (and triumphal) world of "the Valley" and the Internet, but in the world of huge honkin’ crufty proprietary information systems run by major corporations. Especially those used by banksters (including MERS and LPS). Is the foreclosure crisis a law enforcement crisis? Yes. Yves Smith:
Yes. Abigail Field:
Yes. Barry Ritholtz:
Maybe so. Now let’s look at law and code together. Here’s an extract from The Honorable Elizabeth W. Magner’s recent decision busting Wells Fargo [PDF], In Re Jones. It starts:
That is, code. I’ve reformatted Magner’s text into a table with two columns, which can be read left to right, top to bottom.
First, this arrangement of Magner’s text makes one possible “theory of the case” clear: The incentives for fraud — the costs, the fees, and the interest — are all coded green, and are all in column B; the world of Wells Fargo's proprietary information system. Follow the rents. Every time Wells makes a “mistake,” Wells makes money! After mistakes were incentivized, mistakes were made! (Could Wells Fargo’s home mortgage loan administation system actually have been a profit center?) Now, it is true that this scheme — if it is a scheme — does not conform to William Blacks’ “recipe” for optimized accounting control fraud, but it’s a nice little revenue stream all the same, and it falls within Black’s definition: “Control fraud is a term that criminologists use to refer to cases in which the persons controlling a seemingly legitimate entity [here, Wells Fargo's proprietary computer software] use it as a weapon to defraud.” Proprietary information systems like Wells Fargo’s do not magically appear. These systems are not purchased in shrink-wrapped boxes. They are custom-coded and glued together with immense effort by people in cubes, and they cost money. Lots of money. They are also risky to develop. For these reasons, corporations establish formal processes for systems development, deployment, and maintenance of information systems. These processes are heavy-weight. “Agile” they will not be. Scrums will not figure largely in them. There are many methodologies for such processes, but there will be two common feature shared by all: They will be documented, each step of the process will be documented, and major documents — for example, accepting a requirements analysis or a decision to deploy — will be agreed and signed off on at the executive level. CYA is the order of the day. (And if none of that is true, so much the better.) So, if I were a lawyer and looking to sue Wells Fargo for accounting control fraud (or better, a prosecutor who wanted to see banksters in orange jumpsuits doing the perp walk) I’d make sure to include all software development documentation in my discovery, including all email and conversations with outside contractors and consultants, as well as training materials and documentation for end users. Because, from the 30,000 foot level, Wells Fargo executives signed off on a ton of documents while building a proprietary software system that enabled and incentived fraud, and fraud took place. Lots of fraud. So, the executives either signed off knowingly (book 'em under, say, RICO) or they signed off unknowingly (book 'em under, say Sarbanes Oxley). Like I said, I’m not a lawyer. But the systems development process just could be the banksters’ soft underbelly, and I’d like to see a smart legal team with a penchant for software forensics try to rip it open. All this is bad (or good) enough. But what if things are worse? What if the appropiate frame were not law enforcement, but jurisprudence? That is, what if the stakes were not "the rule of law," but the nature of law itself, and hence the nature of the State? Let’s take another look at Table I. Suppose I were a bankster, or a bankster’s lawyer, and I liked the green stuff in column B and wanted to keep what I've taken and take more of it. I might see Magner’s decision as a sort of “one from column A, one from column B” mish-mash that prevents me from doing God’s work. So why not get rid of that Column A entirely? Why not make code, law? That’s a clean solution, since all those pesky accountability issues go away. "Incorrect amortization" would become "
With MERS, code replaced law. Going forward, code is law. Returning to In Re Jones, this layperson can see two ways forward to the same happy, oligarch-friendly outcome as with MERS. The first: Wells Fargo’s failed, first shot: Just call it good. In a third-world country, such tiresome bureaucratic obstacles as judges are easy to clear away. But Magner wasn't having any: "There is nothing in the record supporting Wells Fargo's assertion that it has corrected its past errors." The second: Suppose Wells Fargo's proprietary system just can't support Judge Magner's order? What happens th | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/10/12 Posted: 10 Apr 2012 01:16 AM PDT News from the RCM conference. Everyone complaining about the slow markets. let me re-state. People that are new to the market ( last 7 years) complaining. The long of tooth have seen this before and consolidating. They understand dynamics. Eric Sprott calling for $300 silver and raising his tone condemning the banks for manipulating the silver market. It took a lot of self control to keep my mouth shut. First he markets a silver fund, usually bad business practice to be bearish (read: sarcasism). Secondly the two largest gold banks HSBC and Scotia/Mocatta in the room. I was tempted to ask their opinion on the conspiracy charge. I still have a cut on my lip for biting down so hard. The "players" see a tough market this year but are not convinced the secular bull is over. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Confiscation of Gold and Silver Coins Will Not Happen - so says Greg Hunter. Posted: 10 Apr 2012 01:10 AM PDT An interesting and informative read and included video. Warns that the "low hanging gold fruit" - such as ETF holdings - would be a likely first target in any confiscation scenario rather than physical coins, which would be the last (and hardest to implement and execute). I'd consider it a recommended read imho. http://usawatchdog.com/confiscation-...-not-happen/?s FYI, R. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Timberline to Acquire 100 Percent Ownership of Butte Highlands Project Posted: 10 Apr 2012 12:50 AM PDT • TLR signs non binding LOI with its JV Partner, a principal of which is a major TLR shareholder and director (Mr. Ron Guill), to acquire the 50% of the Butte Highlands gold project Timberline does not already own, for $7 million in cash and equity; plus a Net Smelter Return or royalty on future production from the soon-to-be low-cost high-grade gold mine 15 miles south of Butte, Montana. • TLR to control 100% of the project, taking over remaining development and permitting. • TLR to receive 100% of future mining proceeds rather than 50%, with Highland Mining's $24 million of up front development costs "forgiven," save for the royalty on future production to Mr. Guill. • Mr. Guill to remain TLR's largest shareholder and member of the TLR board of directors.
According to the company, Butte Highlands is in the advanced permitting stage. Production infrastructure has already been completed except for water treatment facilities. Once in production, probably later this year, Timberline has estimated daily production rates of 400 to 500 tons of material. (We estimate the ore will contain roughly a third of an ounce of gold per ton on average in the first few years of production.) By our calculation that would equal production of roughly 45,000 to 50,000 ounces of gold per year in the first four years of operation. The mine is expected to be in operation for up to a decade. Timberline previously estimated cash costs in the neighborhood of $500 per ounce. Continued... Assuming the LOI is finalized TLR would control 100% of Butte Highlands and would be entitled to all of the future revenues, less the new royalty interest. As of this writing the amount of the royalty is undisclosed. We believe there are no other royalties payable at Butte Highlands. A source familiar with the matter said that Mr. Guill initially proposed the "consolidation" of his company's half interest into TLR and did so "in a way that Timberline could afford to do it without doing harm to the share structure." By taking a portion of the transaction in cash and part in Timberline stock (proportions as yet undisclosed), Mr. Guill is certain to remain the largest individual shareholder in TLR. According to Timberline executives, Mr. Guill and Highland Mining have expended about $24 million in up-front development costs at Butte Highlands, including a headquarters, equipment barns, some water treatment facilities and driving a 16' tall by 14' wide development ramp thousands of feet into Nevin Hill - very close to the beginning sections of the high-grade gold "pay zone."
In late 2011 TLR discovered via test wells that the underground workings would produce more water than initially expected, causing a delay in the final permitting process to design water handling facilities. An informed source tells Got Gold Report that the new water discharge permit deals with the additional water issue, the disposition of the water to be pumped into sediment ponds and treated to strict Montana standards prior to discharge into the environment. They said that plans call for a typical modular water treatment plant that is scalable or expandable by units or modules to handle expected flows of underground water. • Impact – we believe mostly constructive, as all future revenues, less the royalty to Mr. Guill will bear to TLR rather than the previous 50/50 JV. Instead of only a partial interest in first year net revenues TLR will receive 100%. TLR on a faster path to positive cash flow.
We note that Mr. Guill reportedly holds 5.6 million TLR shares before giving effect to the new transaction and we can speculate that after the transaction he will hold ~10 million shares or more of the company (about 16% of the shares outstanding, 15% fully diluted if our estimate is close). We note also that Mr. Guill is approaching retirement age. Independent sources confirm that Mr. Guill also recently sold his very successful contract mining company, Small Mine Development. We believe Mr. Guill's decision to accept TLR equity in the transaction, and relying on a royalty to be paid out of future mining proceeds to recoup his $24 million development investment, shows confidence in the project, in the project's ability to obtain the final operating permit and in TLR management. We consider it a positive that TLR's Chairman, Paul Dircksen, and CFO Randal Hardy will now become more directly involved in the development and permitting process at Butte. Mr. Dircksen, a 35-year industry veteran geologist, is responsible for bringing at least seven economic mineral deposits into production and is widely known and respected in the mining business. Having met and spent time with Mr. Dircksen, and Mr. Hardy we reiterate our confidence in this management team to bring Butte Highlands into production as soon as practicable. Although timing of the final operating permit remains uncertain, management remains very confident that the permit is a matter of "when" not "if."
With the markets being tentative and nervous, and with gold mining shares in general and TLR in particular "on sale," now seems to us a particularly good time for Mr. Guill to be taking shares of TLR in trade for part of his company's portion of the project. We view this transaction as having rare win-win potential, serving the needs of both parties to the deal and TLR shareholders over time. We know from other TLR disclosures that the company expects a new resource estimate to come from the South Eureka project in Nevada in the near future. Expectations are for the new resource estimate to show an increase in the gold resources at Lookout Mountain (currently estimated at just under 500,000 ounces of gold in all categories). As of March 1, 2012 there were 61.4 million shares outstanding, 67 million fully diluted. TLR closed Monday, April 9 at USD $0.50 in New York for a market capitalization of about $31 million. By our back of envelope calculation, that means that TLR is currently valued about 38% of one year's expected revenues from Butte Highlands figured at $1,600 gold. That is with nothing at all figured for their flagship exploration project at South Eureka. We understand that management will be presenting at conference in New York today, Tuesday, April 10, 2012. For more information the TLR website is at this link. http://www.timberline-resources.com/index.php That is all for now, but there is more to come. Image: Timberline Resources, underground operations at Butte Highlands.
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| Posted: 10 Apr 2012 12:17 AM PDT CBS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Keiser: Return of the Silver Liberation Army Posted: 09 Apr 2012 11:57 PM PDT In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss the return of the Silver Liberation Army as JP Morgan's Blythe Masters claims the bank does not manipulate silver prices. from RussiaToday: They also discuss JP Morgan's 'London whale' breaking the credit default swap (CDS) index market with massive prop position. In the second half of the show Max talks to author, Pierre Jovanovic, about Blythe Masters role at JP Morgan and the similarities between the world today and France of the 18th century on the eve of revolution. ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Physical Gold Bullion Demand Picks Up as India Strike Ends Posted: 09 Apr 2012 11:51 PM PDT Gold bullion prices drifted down to $1.642 per ounce during Tuesday morning's London trading – though still slightly up on last week's close following gains in Asia – while stocks fell and commodities were flat. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Japan Keeps Rates Below 0.1%, Debasing Yen Posted: 09 Apr 2012 11:33 PM PDT Gold rose in Asian trading prior to falls as Europe opened after the Easter break. Gold appears to have risen on safe haven buying due to concern about global economic growth after China's import growth missed forecasts in March. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Crude Oil, Copper May Rise on Fed Officials’ Comments Posted: 09 Apr 2012 11:14 PM PDT Commodity prices continue to reflect sour global growth expectations coupled with rebuilding hopes for additional Federal Reserve stimulus. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper on the defensive while gold and silver edge higher. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold bulls cheered by resumption of Indian gold trading Posted: 09 Apr 2012 09:45 PM PDT Comex gold futures closed higher yesterday, with the June contract up 0.9% to settle at $1,643.90 per troy ounce - buoyed by news that Indian gold imports are to resume following a 20-day strike ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Apr 2012 09:28 PM PDT A look at the charts after April 5th closing suggests lower markets this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 13060.14 -14.61 after forming a triple top pattern against the price of 13,250 resistance. Volume was down about 10-15 % and momentum is flat and turning down. Price is above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but under the 20-day at 13,144.56. The price is channeled between 13,250 and 13,000 on support and resistance. The trading range was tight today but 13,000 support appears very strong on the chart. Since tomorrow is Good Friday; markets are closed. We would expect a weaker to flat opening on Monday unless there is some good news. Also, keep in mind we next begin to see new first quarter earnings reports. Those reports, if positive, could give stocks some reason to open-up and buy with so many potential buyers sitting on the sidelines. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1398.08 -0.88 on flat to lowering momentum and 90% of normal volume. The chart pattern remains mildly higher but, the lows are going lower and today's close sits right on a lower channel support line for a prop. The closing price is two points under primary support of 1400 but, remains close enough to call 1400, both support and resistance. If the S&P's show signs of skidding on the Monday open, I would expect PPT buying support, otherwise it sells toward 1380-1385, which could accelerate. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 635.84 -0.35 on 90% of normal volume and flat to down-trending momentum. The price is supported by 5 moving averages and channel lines, which is positive. S&P 100 fund managers are not selling, they are just not buying waiting in a new pause. Like the other stock indexes, this one is flat for Good Friday and it remains to be seen on Monday, if fresh buyers come in or, a new round of selling begins after posting this peaky, toppy chart. On the calendar, this cycle ends in new selling near the middle of April, but it seems the highs are in and a pullback is now in order. Watch the Nasdaq Index on Monday for leadership as to, which way we go next. Its advanced signals shows a selling breakdown but it's mild. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2782.50 +17.50 in 88% of normal volume and flat to down momentum. The chart posted a bear double top and sold down in gapping break on Tuesday. On this Thursday, price came back up in new support after Wednesday's trading, bounced-off the 20-day moving average (lower) and a lower supporting channel trading line. This week's trading pattern could be a pivot reversal with more buying on Monday just to fill that gap and then proceed lower with more selling. Or, it could support near 2750 and then resume new buying after the price settles slightly lower about April 15th. In any event, we think any new selling would just be a mild, normal, spring cycle correction of about -50 points and then resume new buying back to early April highs. Last year, the Sell in May and Go Away cycle arrived in mid-May. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 137.68 +1.06 after momentum was scraping along a chart bottom and has now crossed moving averages to resume new buying in a tiny up-trend. There's lots of tugging and pulling in both directions now as weakening stocks drive-up bonds. However, the Euro-bonds are failing and so is that general market for other sovereign debt. Even some smaller government and corporates can go bad overnight. Junk bonds are big again in the USA as buyers chase yield. In our view, they better be careful as that stuff is toxic and can hit the trash very quickly…hence the name junk bonds. The 30's touched 135.00 support last month and rose to resistance on the 200-day moving average at 137.46. That average is now new support and resistance with a down bias for about one trading week. Bonds should regain some strength next week knocking back the price to 137.00 plus or, minus. Expect little movement next week in either direction. XAU: Closed at 165.30 -1.80 with a close under all moving averages. The broader stock markets were manipulated and pumped and the precious metals shares received nothing but more selling pressures. The PMO moving averages are still trending down as are the metal-to-shares ratio. The latter is the best trend signal in the pile and its saying more selling ahead. Today, the XAU tried to rise but fell back down and closed in the lower third of the trading range saying more selling on Monday. The price cannot get much worse technically as it closed beneath five moving averages and channel lines. Last week we thought 170 would hold but, it did not and 160.00 is the next lower support expected on next Monday. Gold: Closed at 1630.30 +10.20 on slipping momentum with a close under the 200-day moving average at $1650.93. The close is under all moving averages and that could signal more selling until gold touches $1608 support next, followed by a new rally to 1750 from about April 9th to the 27th. We were hoping for $1850 as a spring minimum but the chart still looks quite weak to see that recovery before the next two and one-half months. We forecast $1,607 next week followed by a three week rally to April 27, topping at $1,748.50. Silver: Closed at 31.66 +0.36 on falling but supporting momentum. All the moving averages are above the close but remain nearby as resistance. Silver can rise in the last cycle of this month but we can see all the moving averages just above today's close being in the way. The first goal after 34.48 is 36.48 and then 38.85. The top channel down sloping line is at 36.48, which is our objective for this month. For now there is no reason for the precious metals to rise much on a fear and security move as the credit and stock markets have been settled down for at least all of April and perhaps longer. US Dollar: Closed at 80.09 on 80.00 support and resistance. The dollar is rising as the Euro sinks on poor bond auctions in Spain and Portugal and now apparent no-near term resolution to Greece's on-going troubles. Further, it was reported this week that Southern European credit problems are migrating north toward Germany. Next, with Germany digging in their political heels to save Euro-land and the Euro currency, they are perceived to be headed toward a major slump like all of Southern Europe. The USDX index number of 80.00 is tough to move through, but we forecast that it will over the next 2-4 weeks touching a new and higher trading range of 80.50 to 81.50. Crude Oil: Closed at 103.14 +1.07 after the price slipped under 104.50 major support and beneath the trading range of 104.50 to 108.50. Momentum is still slipping lower, but today's close was higher with an exit near the top saying more buying in the next trading day on Monday. Resistance is now 104.50 with support at 100.50. The 200-day moving average is back at 98.20 with the 20-day and 50-day averages above today's close. Reserves are plentiful on cut-back recessionary driving and flying. We forecast oil to sell back to 100.50 support first, followed by new buying back up to $108 resistance by the end of April. CRB: Closed at 306.49 +1.53 sliding down in a jerky gapping motion. Momentum is still selling and new major support is 300.00. All the moving averages and channel lines are above the close, which is negative. Should the price slip under 300.00 support, we next see 294.00 support on an old channel line. March and April are normally stronger months for the CRB but it has slipped backwards on selling crude oil prices and over-supply. We had expected more support and it is coming, but could very well take another ten trading days to regain some new footing to buy. Expect the CRB to be selling next week with support at 300 and 294 as a final first half low. –Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JPMorgan...Dutch Crossword Puzzles...and Silver Posted: 09 Apr 2012 09:20 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold blasted higher the moment that trading began in New York on Sunday night, but JPMorgan et al were lying in wait. Within four hours of the open, they had the gold price back under 'control'...but they had to throw a lot of paper at it to get the job done. Almost 20% of yesterday's net volume figure was expended during that time period, which is normally the quietest time of the trading day. Not much happened in London trading...and both smallish rally attempts in the New York Comex session were turned back in the same old way. Gold closed at $1,641.30 spot...up $10.20 on the day. The volume yesterday was exceedingly light...only about 69,000 contracts.
The silver price followed the same path as gold on Sunday night' New York open...straight up. It took about 10% of yesterday's net total volume in silver to put out that fire...which they did in four hours flat. The price took off again shortly after 12 o'clock noon in London...which was twenty minutes before the Comex open in New York. By 8:40 a.m. Eastern, silver had gained about 70 cents...and hit its high of the day at $32.18 spot. It then took 'da boyz' about two and a half hours to take back all those gains, plus set the low price tick of the day, which was $31.51 spot. The subsequent rally ran into a seller shortly before 3:00 p.m. in electronic trading, which once again took the silver price below Friday's closing price. But at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, the seller vanished...and silver managed to struggle back into the plus column before the end of the Monday trading day. Silver closed at $31.76 spot...up a nickel. Net volume was vanishingly small...about 22,000 contracts...and as I said a couple of paragraphs ago...10 percent of that came shortly after the New York open on Sunday night, which is a time of day [and week] where normally only a few hundred contracts trade...if that.
The dollar index made a couple of feeble attempts to break above the 80.00 level...but neither lasted for more than a few minutes...and the dollar index closed basically unchanged from Friday.
The gold stocks gapped up a bit...and then rallied a bit more...and then sold off a bit...and then traded sideways for the rest of the day. The HUI finished up 0.64%.
Most silver stocks got it in the neck again yesterday...and quite a few made new low prices for this move down. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down another 1.08%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report was very unexciting, as only 37 gold contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV. The U.S. Mint had a small sales report. They sold 500 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 240,000 silver eagles. There was a lot of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 1,314,733 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 775,228 ounces out the door. For the second time in as many weeks, all five warehouses reported movement. The link to that action is here. Silver analyst Ted Butler had an extensive commentary over the weekend...and a lot of it had to do with the JPMorgan interview on CNBC last week. Here are three free paragraphs... "There is no doubt that this wasn't a spontaneous event. The presentation wasn't accidental. I've watched CNBC fairly religiously for as long as it has been in existence (but with the sound muted for much of the day) and the last firm recollection I have of any mention of a silver manipulation was more than three years ago, when Joe Kernan commented on The Wall Street Journal article on Sep 25, 2008 about a CFTC investigation into silver. I remember him joking about some new Hunt Bros. plot to drive prices higher. Never again have I heard the silver manipulation mentioned on that network. CNBC has never seriously broached the subject to my knowledge. So I was taken back when the reporter specifically asked about the allegations of manipulation in silver, as if they were widely recognized as common knowledge. I got a special kick out of the reference to all these allegations coming from the "blogosphere." (As opposed to the mainstream media, I suppose). "It would be safe to say that the interview tried to present JPMorgan as a contributor to worthy causes, who would never dream of manipulating silver and as a strong proponent of financial regulatory reform. All of JPMorgan's positions in silver were claimed to be non-directional and only transacted to accommodate legitimate client hedging needs. To the typical CNBC viewer, who has little interest in silver to begin with, I would imagine that the segment appeared little more than a puff piece on an obscure topic. But I doubt that this was all that it was. There was an intent and purpose to this presentation, as many have already suggested. That's what makes it so potentially significant. "To my knowledge, this is the very first time that JPMorgan has openly acknowledged the allegations against it for manipulating the price of silver. Please think about that. It's been more than three years, dozens of class-action lawsuits and a ton of reputational abuse (remember "sink JPM, buy a Silver Eagle"?) and this is JPMorgan's first rebuttal? Years ago, I used to wait for process servers and Fed Ex-delivered cease and desist demands; but I had just about given up on JPMorgan ever responding since so much time had passed. Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad not be sued; but I am a little underwhelmed with how JPM finally did respond. I can't help but ask myself – why now and in this tepid a manner?" You just know that JPMorgan et al's price fixing operation in silver has become blindingly obvious when the following question showed up in a crossword puzzle in a major daily newspaper in the Netherlands this past weekend....18 Across: "The price of this precious metal is kept artificially low by the business bank JP Morgan Chase." In Dutch that reads as follows..."De prijs van dit edelmetaal wordt kunstamtig laag gehouden do"or de zakenbank JP Morgan Chase."
(Click on image to enlarge) You can't make this stuff up! The 'click to enlarge' feature works wonders here...and I thank reader John Gillies for digging up this absolute gem on our behalf! Too bad it's not as equally obvious to all the silver companies out there who keep throwing away our silver at $32 the ounce, when it should be priced at least five times that amount. Being Tuesday, I have the usual plethora of stories for you today. After the breakout attempts when New York opened on Sunday night, gold and silver prices weren't allowed to do much of anything after that. China to maintain golden focus. If gold isn't money, why did Vietnam just outlaw using it as such? Gold crash on Fed tightening and euro salvation looks premature. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeNegative news means more Fed actionNegative surprises for the U.S. economy are mounting. The latest was the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, but many worse-than-expected reports have been percolating to the surface in recent weeks in matters ranging from manufacturing output to home prices. The Federal Reserve, to its credit, has been warning that employment in recent months was improving at a faster pace than the fundamentals merited. So what is its next move? My expectation is that it will hit the gas, and hard, to lower real interest rates and improve liquidity despite recent protests from regional presidents." It's many market observer's opinions [including mine] that sometime before summer is out, some form of QE3 will be on its way. This rather short marketwatch.com story is from yesterday...and I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending it. The link is here.  US set to kick the can further down the roadDuring the first few months of 2010 and 2011, America showed encouraging signs of robust economic growth. In both years, though, by the spring or early summer, hopes of the world's biggest economy mounting a meaningful and sustainable recovery were snuffed out. That's why figures showing only a 120,000 rise in US employment in March, released on Friday, have sparked a wave of investor angst. This is the lowest payroll gain since the autumn and just half the previous month's total. Are we to see a repeat of the "false start" pattern of 2010 and 2011? Surely, this number raises significant questions, again, about the strength of this US recovery. This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk website on Saturday...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.  John Williams: Unemployment rate at a staggering 22.2%It's obvious that Mr. Williams is rather underwhelmed by Friday's employment numbers...and doesn't mince words in the King World News blog from yesterday. It's not overly long...and there are some great graphs. It's worth the read...and the link is here.  MF Global: The Big Fix Was In; How Corzine Threw a Mid-Level Operations Assistant Under the BusIn the December 2011 testimony to Congress, when Jon Corzine was asked exactly who assured him that transfers were not from any customer funds, he answered: John Corzine: "explicit statements that we were using proper funds, both orally and in writing, to the best of my knowledge…The woman that I spoke to was a Ms. Edith O'Brien." With that...and within seconds, an obscure back office employee with the title of Assistant Treasurer, came to the center of what is emerging to be not only one of the largest bankruptcies in U.S. History, but one of the most momentous, as it reaches beyond the financial district of New York into the heartland and creep into the corners of regulatory offices and our judicial system. The growing web around the bankruptcy now brings uncertainty to the very foundations of regulation and judicial oversight in the United States. And with those words, fiduciary culpability for taking client funds was squarely placed onto 46 year-old Edith O'Brien. This zerohedge.com story was posted on their website last Friday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for bringing it to my attention. The link is here.  JPMorgan Trader Iksil Fuels Prop-Trading Debate With BetsJPMorgan Chase & Co. trader Bruno Iksil's outsized bets in credit derivatives are drawing attention to a little-known division that invests the company's reserves and fueling a debate over whether banks are taking excessive risks with federally insured and subsidized money. Iksil's influence in the market has spurred some counterparts to dub him Voldemort, after the Harry Potter villain. He works in London in the bank's chief investment office, which has assembled traders from across Wall Street to its staff of 400 who help oversee $350 billion in investments. While the firm describes the unit's main task as hedging risks and investing excess cash, four hedge-fund managers and dealers say the trades are big enough to move indexes and resemble proprietary bets, or wagers made with the bank's own money. The trades, first reported by Bloomberg News April 5, stirred debate among U.S. policy makers over the Easter-holiday weekend as they wrangle over this year's implementation of the so-called Volcker rule, the portion of the Dodd-Frank Act that sets limits on risk-taking by banks with government backing. The law passed after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. This story was all over the Internet on the weekend. Who knows, maybe Bruno Iksil's name will show up in a crossword puzzle as well some day. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing this rather longish Bloomberg story to our attention...and the link is here.  Union Pension Underfunding Time-Bomb Soars By 75% In One Year, Nears $400 BillionThe shortfall in US labor union pension funds is huge and growing rapidly. The latest data, from 2009, from the PBGC showed that these multi-employer plans were 48% underfunded with $331bn of assets to support $686bn of liabilities - and it has hardly been a good ride for those asset values since then. Critically, as the Financial Times noted yesterday, recent changes by FASB has enabled Credit Suisse to estimate shortfalls more accurately and it paints an ugly picture. Yes, it certainly does. I thank reader Bob Fitzwilson for sharing this zerohedge.com piece from yesterday with us...and the link is here.  U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With IranThe Obama administration and its European allies plan to open new negotiations with Iran by demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling of a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain, according to American and European diplomats. They are also calling for a halt in the production of uranium fuel that is considered just a few steps from bomb grade, and the shipment of existing stockpiles of that fuel out of the country, the diplomats said. That negotiating position will be the opening move in what President Obama has called Iran's "last chance" to resolve its nuclear confrontation with the United Nations and the West diplomatically. The hard-line approach would require the country's military leadership to give up the Fordo enrichment plant outside the holy city of Qum, and with it a huge investment in the one facility that is most hardened against airstrikes. This sounds very much like the "Hull Note" delivered to Japan on November 26, 1941...less than two weeks before the outbreak of hostilities on December 7, 1941 at Pearl Harbor. The Americans knew perfectly well that Japan could not live with this ultimatum...and that war would result. That was the plan...and it worked like a charm. The above New York Times story from Saturday was something I dug out of yesterday's King Report...and the link is here.  & | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Die Zukunft der USA /2012-2016 (3. Teil) - Der Zerfall der sozialen und politischen Struktur Posted: 09 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT - Auszug GEAB N°60 (17. Dezember 2011) -  Der Niedergang der wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und politischen Struktur der USA ist seit vierzig Jahren im Gang. In vorhergehenden Ausgaben des GEAB haben wir auf die bedeutsamen Brüche in der amerikanischen Entwicklung in den siebziger Jahren hingewiesen: Aufgabe des Goldstandards, Niederlage im Vietnamkrieg, Watergate. Auch waren die siebziger Jahre die letzten Boomjahre der großen Erfindungen und wissenschaftlichen Projekte in den USA wie Raumfahrt, Internet usw.  Insbesondere ein Aspekt scheint uns besonders bedeutend zu sein für die neue Epoche, die jetzt einsetzt, nämlich der Zerfall des Bildungssystems (1). Um nicht zu sehr in die Details zu gehen, kann man sich auf den Hinweis beschränken, dass mit der Einführung von Multiple Choice Prüfungen von der Grundschule bis zur Universität sich die Qualität der Bildung so verschlechtert hat, dass die Amerikaner, die heute jünger als 40 Jahre sind, nur noch eine sehr minderwertige Bildung genossen haben. Gleichzeitig führte es dazu, dass sich in der Bildung ein Zweiklassensystem entwickelt hat, das den Eliten des Landes, die sich die besten Schulen und Universitäten trotz steigender Kosten leisten konnten, ermöglichte, sich weiter von der Mittelschicht abzugrenzen. Zuletzt versetzte die zunehmende Profitorientierung (2) des Bildungssektors, gepaart mit der Zunahme von Fern- oder Heimunterricht, der Idee von der Notwendigkeit allgemein verbindlicher hoher Bildungsstandards im amerikanischen Bildungssystem einen tödlichen Schlag (3). Amerikaner, die heute jünger als vierzig Jahre sind, sind viel weniger gebildet, viel weniger gut ausgebildet und sozial schlechter integriert als die älteren Generationen (4). Damit sind sie auf dem Arbeitsmarkt schlechter einsetzbar, sie kommen in einer globalisierten Welt mangels sprachlicher, geschichtlicher und kultureller Bildung schlechter zurecht und sie sind nicht in der Lage, vor den Herausforderungen moderner Wissenschaft (5) und Technik (6) zu bestehen. Das hat sogar Auswirkungen auf die so sehr beschworene Verteidigungsfähigkeit des Landes (7). Das hat auch negative Auswirkungen auf das Funktionieren der Demokratie und der Politik des Landes. Denn die Bürger sind immer weniger in der Lage, Lüge von Wahrheit zu trennen, Information von Propaganda, Kompetenz von Demagogie (8). Die Vorwahlen der Republikaner für die Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012 ist dafür geradezu ein Schulbeispiel, wie Marc Pitzke im Spiegel vom 01/12/2011 über die Kandidatenriege schreibt: „Ein Verein von Lügnern, Demagogen und Dummköpfen." Es ist eigentlich nicht vorstellbar, dass ein solcher Haufen vor dreißig oder vierzig Jahren das Kandidatenaufgebot einer der beiden großen Parteien hätte sein können. Gerade weil in den siebziger Jahren die Qualität des Bildungssystems nach unten reformiert wurde, ist heute der Zerfall der demokratischen und politischen Struktur des Landes ist so weit fortgeschritten. Diese Entwicklung, gepaart mit den Folgen der Krise, die wie jede Krise die Ungleichheiten noch verstärkt, da sie die Schwachen stärker in Mitleidenschaft zieht als die Starken, führt verstärkt zu einer Fragmentierung der amerikanischen Gesellschaft. Die Hoffnung, dass die Wahl eines schwarzen Präsidenten die Integration der Afro-Amerikaner befördern könnte, war sehr schnell vergangen. In der Krise sind die rassischen Minderheiten Latinos und Schwarze stärker betroffen als die Weißen (9). Während die Afro-Amerikaner, wie es jedenfalls scheint, vermehrt wieder in die südlichen Staaten zurückkehren (10), gelingt es den Latinos im Süd- Westen der USA immer präsenter und einflussreicher zu werden. In dieser Region herrscht heute ein Krieg der mexikanischen Drogenbanden gegen die staatlichen Autorität. Auf beiden Seiten der Grenze werden mehr Morde begangen, breitet sich Korruption und Drogenhandel aus. Weiße und Latinos grenzen sich voneinander ab. Und die amerikanischen Grenzbundesstaaten verabschieden zunehmend rigide Gesetze zur Bekämpfung der illegalen Einwanderung. Auch der Kampf um die wenigen Arbeitsplätze ist zwischen den Ethnien entbrannt. Die Tatsache, dass die Infrastruktur des Landes zerfällt, begünstigt auch den Zerfall der sozialen und politischen Struktur der Gesellschaft (11). Brücken, Straßen, Gleise, Flughäfen, Deiche, Dämme, Atomkraftwerke, Pipelines sind in einem so erbärmlichen Zustand, dass allein ihre Instandsetzung 2000 Milliarden Dollar verschlingen würde (12). Und alle wissen, dass der Kongress, in dem die Ideologen die Entscheidungen blockieren, diese Gelder nicht zur Verfügung stellen wird und angesichts finanziellen Schwierigkeiten des Landes es auch nicht könnte, wenn er wollte. Die Lage ist nicht neu. Aber während nichts passiert, zerfällt die Infrastruktur des Landes weiter.  LEAP/E2020 wies schon 2006 auf diesen unsäglichen Zustand der amerikanischen Infrastruktur und seine mittelfristig sehr negativen Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft und die die soziale Struktur des Landes hin. Seither sind sechs Jahre vergangen und 2016 werden es zehn sein. Das ist ausreichend Zeit, um brüchige Brücken einstürzen und leckende Pipelines explodieren zu lassen. Menschen haben die Fähigkeit, sich an den schlechten Zustand der Dinge, die sie umgeben, zu gewöhnen und diese Situation für normal zu halten – bis zu dem Tag, an dem die Dinge tatsächlich zusammenbrechen. Wir gehen davon aus, dass es in den Jahren 2012 bis 2016 soweit sein wird. Spannungen zwischen den verschiedenen Ethnien, Verfall der sozialen Bindungen, Demagogie, « Verunbildung » der Massen, Arbeitslosigkeit, Verarmung (13). All das lässt eine Entwicklung sehr leicht vorhersehen, die sich auch an den Ereignissen des Black Friday 2011 ablesen lässt: An dem Tag, der eigentlich nur die Zeit der Weihnachtseinkäufe einläuten soll, kam es zu Schießereien, Schlägereien, Krawallen, Menschen kamen ums Leben (14). Aber besonders Besorgnis erregend ist, dass der Verkauf in einer Warenkategorie im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um sagenhafte 32% zulegen konnte – Schusswaffen! Was kann ein solcher gefühlter Bedarf an Schusswaffen in einem Land, in dem schon mehr als 200 Millionen im Umlauf sind, bedeuten? Für uns ist es der klare Nachweis, dass immer mehr Amerikaner (15) sich auf das Schlimmste vorbereiten (16). In der Massenpsychologie gibt es Phänomene, die eine sich selbstverstärkende Eigendynamik entfalten. Die Angst vor einem Abgleiten des Landes in eine allgemeine Gewalttätigkeit speist sich auch aus dem Wissen um die reduzierten Finanzmittel für die Polizei und der Vorahnung, dass die anwachsende Zahl der Armen auch ein Anwachsen der Gefahr für die Besitzenden mit sich bringt (17). Wir haben schon von den Schockwellen geschrieben, die eine weitere Serie von Bankinsolvenzen 2012 durch die Gesellschaft jagen wird. Ab 2013 gehen wir davon aus, dass aufgrund der hier geschilderten Entwicklungen sich eine allgemeine Atmosphäre unkontrollierter Gewalt über dem Land bilden wird. Das wird auch ein wesentlicher Grund sein, warum dann der Ruf nach einem starken Mann, der Gesetz und Ordnung wieder Geltung verschafft, lauter werden wird. Wir treffen hier keine Aussage zu der außenpolitischen Lage der USA in den Jahren bis 2016. Wir haben bereits in der vorhergehenden Aussage des GEAB den Abzug der US-Truppen aus Europa für 2017 vorhergesagt. Wir erinnern daran, dass wir in den kommenden Jahren nicht davon ausgehen, dass die USA einen weiteren Krieg beginnen werden. Denn das Land hat heute nicht mehr die politischen, finanziellen und außenpolitischen Mittel, um sich in ein solches Abenteuer zu stürzen; bald wird es auch nicht mehr eine ausreichend schlagkräftige Armee besitzen. Wir sehen auch nicht, dass ein anderer Staat den bewaffneten Konflikt mit den USA suchen sollte. Wir gehen also davon aus, dass die Entwicklung in den USA unabhängig von geopolitischen Bedingungen und Veränderungen ablaufen wird. Das heißt aber nicht, dass sich für die USA eine Zeit ohne außenpolitische Konflikte einsetzt. Dafür gibt es zu viele Spannungen mit Ländern wie Iran (18), China, Russland und anderen. Aber sie werden nicht militärisch ausgetragen, sondern mit geringerer Intensität (Cyberangriffe, Spionage, Sabotage usw.) Die aktuellen Bemühungen der Regierung Obama, einen Mini- Kalten Krieg mit China (19) anzuzetteln, wird aus zwei Gründen nicht von Dauer sein: . Hintergrund dieser Bemühungen sind wahltaktische Überlegungen: Obama soll im Wahljahr als großer Staatsmann in Erscheinung treten. . Es ist geradezu absurd, dass ein Land, das vor der Pleite steht, glaubt, es könne gegenüber seinem „Banker" mit Drohgebärden auftreten; und der Banker ist zu allem Überfluss auch noch extrem gut bewaffnet.  Wir gehen zuletzt auch davon aus, dass 2013 bis 2015 die US- Verfassung unter dem Ansturm der Ereignisse, die im bestehenden Verfassungsrahmen nicht bewältigt werden können, verstärkt Ziel von Kritik und Reformforderungen wird. Die innenpolitischen Spannungen des Landes, seine außenpolitischen Probleme und der Grad an Misstrauen, Hass gar zwischen den verschiedenen Ethnien, sozialen Gruppen und religiösen Gemeinschaften machen ein Funktionieren der Gesellschaft nach den Regeln, die die Verfassungsväter vor 200 Jahren entworfen haben, immer schwieriger. Wie Großbritannien und Frankreich sind die USA eines der Länder mit der ältesten politischen Struktur und den ältesten Institutionen, die über Jahrhunderte nicht den modernen Entwicklungen angepasst wurden. Das ist nicht etwa ein Vorteil dank eines Systems das sich über Jahrhunderte bewährt hat, sondern in Zeiten der Krise und des Übergangs in eine neue Epoche eine Behinderung, da nicht mehr zeitgemäß (20). Es ist daher auch kein Zufall, dass seit zwei Jahren eine Debatte über die Notwendigkeit verfassungsrechtlicher Reformen eingesetzt hat. Davor war dies ein Tabuthema. Die Verfassung war ein heiliger Text, und wer sie kritisierte, sah sich sehr schnell dem Vorwurf ausgesetzt, anti-amerikanisch zu sein. Heute wird von TP gefordert, den Geist der Verfassungsväter, der angeblich verschüttet ist, in einer wörtlichen Auslegung des Verfassungstextes wiederzuentdecken, während linke Strömungen wie OWS dafür eintreten, die Verfassung an die Bedingungen des 21. Jahrhunderts anzupassen. Die Debatte ist damit eröffnet. In privaten Unterhaltungen wäre dieses Thema vor gerade einmal drei oder vier Jahren undenkbar gewesen. Heute wird es in gebildeten Kreisen zu einem gängigen Thema. Mittel- und langfristig ist dies auf jeden Fall gut für das Land, seine Entwicklung und notwendige Anpassung (21); aber kurzfristig trägt diese Diskussion zu den wachsenden Zweifeln der Amerikaner an ihrem System bei, da es offensichtlich macht, wie den Eliten die Kontrolle des Landes entgleitet. Wenn dann bestimmte Ereignisse die Menschen in Zorn versetzen, ist damit der Boden für einen Umsturz der bestehenden Ordnung bereitet. Und wir sagen voraus, dass es an Gründen für Volkszorn in den nächsten Jahren keinen Mangel geben wird in einem Land, das zahlungsunfähig und unregierbar ist. -------- Noten: (1) Quelle: NPR, 16/03/2010 (2) Die Qualität der von den Universitäten vergebenen Abschlüsse ist keinerlei ernsthaftem Prüfungsverfahren unterworfen. Quelle: New York Times, 22/11/2011 (3) Was die « Eliteuniversitäten » angeht und das immer wieder genutzte Argument, sie wären die besten weltweit, verweisen wir auf unsere Antizipation aus der 18. Ausgabe des GEAB : „Wert der internationalen Universitätsabschlüsse: Welche Wahl ist heute zu treffen, um einen Abschluss zu machen, der auch noch in zwanzig Jahren international anerkannt ist?" Vier Jahre später sind wir der Auffassung, dass diese Vorhersage heute noch richtiger ist als damals. Sie wird auch unterstützt von anderen Studien wie z.B. die, die am 26.10.2011 von der hervorragenden Webseite criseusa veröffentlicht wurde. Sie trägt den Titel: „Die Krise und die Universitätsausbildung in den USA: Die Mythen von der amerikanischen Intelligenzökonomie". (4) Dieser Aspekt umfasst zwei Elemente: Die weniger privilegierten Schichten, die heute die große Mehrheit der Mittelklasse umfassen, können sich nur unter immer größeren Anstrengungen leisten, ihre Kinder auf die besten Universitäten zu schicken. Die Lage verschlechtert sich noch in der Krise, weil die Einkommen zurückgehen und die Studiengebühren steigen. Damit nimmt auch die soziale Vielfalt der nachwachsenden Mitglieder der Elite ab. Und weil der soziale Aufstieg über die Schule nicht mehr funktioniert, bleiben dem Land viele Talente unentdeckt. Die USA sind aber nicht der einzige westliche Staat, der vor einer solchen Entwicklung steht. Aber neben Großbritannien ist er sicherlich dasjenige, in dem diese Entwicklung vor so langer Zeit eingesetzt und damit solche Ausmaße erreicht hat. (5) Der wachsende Glaube an den Kreationismus, nach dem Gott die Welt in sieben Tagen erschaffen habe, und das Leugnen der Evolutionstheorie ist ein weiteres bezeichnendes Beispiel für die um sich greifende Verunbildung. (6) Die Tatsache, dass die Zahl der Studenten in wissenschaftlichen und technischen Fächern zurückgeht, während sie bei Finanz- und Management- Studiengängen und Jura zunehmen, entlarvt die offiziellen Reden über die Bedeutung der Wissenschaften als reine Lippenbekenntnisse. (7) Im Irakkrieg hat man mitverfolgen können, was passiert, wenn Soldaten bis in die höchsten Ränge keinen blassen Schimmer von der Kultur eines fremden Landes oder der Komplexität einer fremden Gesellschaft haben. Als Ergebnis davon verlassen die Amerikaner ein Land, das sie überwiegend als Besatzer wahrgenommen hat und nicht als Befreier. Die Art und Weise, wie die USA im Irak aufgetreten sind, hat dem Ansehen Amerikas in der Region dauerhaft und weitgehend geschadet. Dabei ist doch der Mittlere und Nahe Osten doch für Washington von hoher strategischer Bedeutung. Quelle: Washington Post, 12/12/2011 (8) Andy Xie schreibt in einem hervorragenden Artikel in Caixin vom 09/12/2011, dass das amerikanische Bildungssystem schon seit mehreren Jahrzehnten die unverdienten Privilegien bestimmter sozialer Schichten festigt und dafür die Allgemeininteressen schädigt. (9) Quelle: New York Times, 28/11/2011 (10) Quelle: New York Times, 24/03/2011 (11) Bei genauer Betrachtung ist Bildung auch Teil der Infrastruktur eines Landes (12) Quelle: Greenbiz, 19/05/2011 (13) Quelle: New York Times, 18/11/2011 (14) Quelle: MSNBC, 25/11/2011 (15) Seit Beginn der Krise haben Waffenkäufe zugenommen. (16) Quelle: Guardian, 15/12/2011 (17) Um der Arbeitslosigkeit zu entkommen, wandern inzwischen viele Amerikaner ins Ausland ab. Quellen: CNBC, 06/12/2011; RT, 08/12/2011 (18) Bis 2016 werden die USA gezwungen sein, ihre bedingungslose Unterstützung für Israel zu überdenken. Zum einen, weil insofern die Forderungen von TP und OWS sich überschneiden, die beide das Militärbudget und Auslandseinsätze begrenzen wollen; zum anderen, weil das Ende des Dollars als Weltwährung für den Kauf von Rohstoffen, einschließlich Erdöl, dazu führen wird, dass sich die USA diese auch finanziell bedingungslose Unterstützung nicht mehr leisten können werden. (19) Quellen: William Pfaff, 22/11/2011; People's Daily, 01/12/2011 (20) Man kann mitverfolgen, wie Großbritannien angesichts der Lockungen eines auf dem Kontinent entstehenden neuen Staatsgebildes auseinander zu brechen droht; die Regierungskoalition steht vor dem Aus und Schottland und Wales drohen mit Austritt (Quellen: Scottish TV, 12/12/2011; Wales Online, 07/12/2011). Und was die Aussichten für Frankreich angeht, stimmen wir vollkommen mit den Analysen und Vorhersagen Franck Biancheris in der französischen Ausgaben seines Buchs Nach der Krise – Auf dem Weg in die Welt von Morgen über die Lage und die Entwicklungen Frankreichs überein (die entsprechenden dreißig Seiten fehlen in den anderen Sprachversionen): Er sagt bis 2020 ein schwere Krise des französischen politischen Systems voraus, wenn es dem Land nicht gelingt, seinen Pariser Zentralismus zu überwinden und die Machtpole über das ganze Land zu verteilen und in die großen regionalen Hauptstädte zu verlegen. Eine wachsende Mehrheit der Franzosen gestehen den Pariser Eliten, deren effektive Macht angesichts der europäischen Integration nur noch sehr relativ ist, nicht mehr das Recht zu, selbstherrlich zu definieren, was Frankreich ist und was die Franzosen wollen. Und dieses ineffiziente System ist darüber hinaus auch noch sehr kostspielig. Das System, ein Erbe der Revolution und des Empire, also wie die Verfassung der USA Ende des 18. Jahrhunderts entworfen, ist den Herausforderungen einer modernen Welt, die sich unter dem Ansturm der Krise schnell verändert, nicht mehr gewachsen. (21) Auch wenn die Mitarbeiter von LEAP/E2020 überwiegend Europäern sind, erlauben wir uns dennoch in der Rubrik Empfehlungen, gewisse Ideen für die Verfassungsdiskussion in den USA vorzulegen; dies insbesondere, weil uns viele unserer amerikanischen Leser dazu ermutigt haben. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 10 2012 Posted: 09 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buyer Beware: Counterfeit Silver Posted: 09 Apr 2012 08:45 PM PDT As money continues to be debased the frequency at which stories like the one presented in this video will continue to grow. Buyer Beware. from thevictoryreport1: Related: From eBay: ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 3) - The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric Posted: 09 Apr 2012 08:42 PM PDT - Excerpt GEAB N°60 (December 16, 2011) -  The breakdown of the United States' socio-economic and socio-political tissue is a phenomenon that started some forty years ago. In previous GEAB issues, we emphasized the importance of the breakdown of the 1970s turning point in the US dynamic: end of the fixed link between the Dollar and gold, defeat in the Vietnam War, "impeachment" of President Nixon, the last period of great inventions / US scientific adventures (the conquest of space, Internet...), etc...  One particular aspect seems strategically important and crucial to the coming period: the collapse of the education system (1). In simple terms, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the change in the 1970s to an education system based on student assessment via multiple choice questions, from primary school to university, has generated a far-reaching and lasting weakening of the education of US generations under the age of 40 today. At the same time, it has accentuated the establishment of a two-speed education system, alienating the country's social elite from the middle class even further, because of the rising costs of access to quality education. Finally, the all-out marketing (2), combined with online or home education, has dealt a fatal blow to any consistency or general requirement for quality in the US education system (3). In general, without being responsible for the situation, those less than forty years old in the United States are much less well educated and less socially integrated (4) than their elders. This has consequences, of course, on their "employability", their ability to act in a world where globalization is everywhere and requires varied knowledge (such as languages, history and geography, for example), their ability to relay, in practice, talk of the country's re-industrialization, or the need to address the country's scientific (5) and technological challenges (6), even the country's military capabilities (7). It also generates a decline in the quality of democratic life and political discourse because the citizen is less able to distinguish between lies and truth, between information and spin, between competence and demagoguery (8).The Republican primaries for the 2012 presidential election is a case study on the subject as Marc Pitzke outlined in the Spiegel of 01/12/2011 with the headline about the competing candidates: "a club of liars, demagogues and ignorants". It is unlikely that such a "club" would have constituted the candidates for the primary of one of the two parties thirty or forty years ago. The breakdown of the country's democratic and political fabric is well under way, particularly because of this generational "dumbing-down of education" started in the 1970s. This development, coupled with the very unequal impact of the current depression which, like any crisis, affects the weakest the most rapidly, increases the fragmentation of the United States' population's identity. The illusion that the election of a black president in the United States would help the integration of African-Americans was quickly dissipated. And instead, the crisis shows that Blacks and Latinos are most affected (9). If African-Americans seem to be starting a return to their "historical territories" in the South of the country (10), Latinos in turn continue to take control of the entire South-West of the United States. In this area, there is now a real war, brought by drug traffickers. On both sides of the US-Mexico border, killing, corruption, trafficking is growing, strengthening each other's identity reflexes, and pushing for the adoption of increasingly severe laws against illegal immigrants. The decrease in the number of available jobs thus generates a real war for "jobs" between different communities. If the socio-political fabric is breaking up, it's also due to the collapse in the quality of the country's infrastructure (11): bridges, roads, railways, airports, dikes, dams, nuclear power plants, pipelines... need more than USD 2 trillion just to be repaired (without any new investment) (12). But everyone knows that such funding is impossible to get from a locked-down Congress and from a high deficit budget. This isn't new either, but as with anything, the passage of time doesn't help, quite the contrary.  Since 2006 LEAP/E2020 has highlighted this dire infrastructure situation and its very serious medium-term consequences for the country's economy and social fabric. Six years have passed and in 2016 it will be ten years: long enough for bridges in poor condition to collapse or leaking pipelines to eventually explode. People tend to get used to the poor state of things thinking, little by little, that it's their normal state... until the day they break completely. As regards infrastructure, we believe that the period 2012-2016 will see such a development. Inter-community tensions, breakdown of social cohesion, political demagoguery, massive "dumbing-down of education", lack of jobs, rapid rise in poverty (13),... it all leads to a very predictable development that marked the 2011 "Black Friday; sales: the pictures not only showed the whole world an aberrant level of violence on what's supposed to be a day of sales (dead, gun shots, fist fights, riots...) (14) , but Black Friday 2011 is especially remarkable for a product that has experienced the largest increase in sales compared to 2010 (+32% (15)): firearms. What could such a phenomenon be the sign of in a country that already has more than 200 million firearms in circulation? LEAP/E2020 believes that this is one more sign that the American public is preparing for the worst, and preparing for it more and more (16). In terms of collective psychology, there are self-sustaining phenomena. The fear of a development in the crisis towards violence is also fuelled by budget cuts in the police and the feeling that the increase in the number of poor will constitute a growing threat to the wealthy (17). We have already discussed the social impact that will generate the new series of bank failures in 2012. Thus, from 2013, we believe that uncontrolled violence will break out because of all the constraints set out in this anticipation. Incidentally, that will be one of the arguments used to search for a "savior" able to restore law and order: a general-sheriff. Finally, we won't examine the geopolitical situation of the United States for this period here. We have already, in GEAB N°59, anticipated the US military withdrawal from continental Europe for 2017, adding more analyses on the progression of US military presence in the world. Remember that we do not anticipate a major conflict initiated by the United States for the period in question. In fact, the country no longer has the political, fiscal, diplomatic, and soon military means, to embark on such an adventure. As we do not expect direct aggression against the United States from another country, this option seems irrelevant to us for anticipating the events of the 2012-2016 period. This will not prevent "clashes", sometimes violent, taking place between the United States and countries like Iran (18), China, Russia... but they will likely be infra-conflicting in nature (software and hardware attacks, spying, sabotage...). The current attempt by the Obama administration to trigger a mini Cold War with China (19) will fail for two reasons: . it is only meant for an electoral aim of giving credibility to Obama's stature as a statesman a year from the elections (20) . it's the fact of a penniless country who "threatens his banker" (a banker who is better armed), which can't go very far.  Last but not least, we consider that 2013/2015 will be a period that is likely to see the constitutional order of the United States upset by events. Internal tensions in the country, outside pressures and the degree of distrust even hatred of the different communities between each other (ethnic, social, religious...) will make the unfolding of the process created more than two hundred years by the country's Founding Fathers all the more difficult. Like the United Kingdom and France, the United States' political structure and institutional system are amongst the oldest in operation. Far from being a term guarantee it is, in a time of great historical transition, rather a major handicap, as the bearer of obsolescence (21). Moreover, for about two years, the debate on the country's Constitution in the United States has opened. It was previously a taboo subject: the Constitution, the sacred text, was not questionable unless being an "anti-American". Today, whether to return to the spirit of the founders or the letter of the text, both considered lost (an argument particularly of the TP), or conversely to adapt it to the twenty first century (a more leftist argument, an OWS trend), the debate exists. And in private conversations, this topic, unthinkable only three or four years ago, is authorized. In the medium and long term, it's a good thing to allow the country to evolve and adapt (22), but in the short term, it reflects the growing confusion of public opinion and the always increasingly dangerous fragility of the ruling elite. This combination is traditionally conducive to a calling into question of the institutional order, once there are severe shocks to the collective psyche. And, as we anticipate, it's not shocks we're going to be short of in the next five years; in an ungovernable and insolvent country. -------- Notes: (1) Source: NPR, 16/03/2010 (2) Degree quality is not reliably controlled. Source: New York Times, 22/11/2011 (3) As for the "elite universities" and the perennial argument that they are the best in the world, we refer to our 2007 anticipation published in GEAB N°18: "The value of international academic degrees: What choices to make today to have an international degree which is still valid in ten to twenty years?;. Four years later, this analysis seems to have gained even more credibility. And it ties in with other studies like that published on 26/10/2011 by the excellent website criseusa under the heading: "The crisis and higher education in the United States: Misconceptions about the parsimony of intelligence in the United States". (4) This aspect covers two things: those of less advantaged backgrounds, which now includes most of the middle class, have met with increasing difficulties in finding places for their children at the best universities. This phenomenon is, of course, strongly reinforced by the crisis which has seen registration fee increase and income fall. This reduces the social diversity of the country's future elite. And conversely, the country is deprived of multiple skills by breaking this social ladder that is education. The United States is not the only Western country to be met with such developments. But, along with the United Kingdom, it's the only one to be as hard hit by this trend and for as long. (5) Another illustration of it is the rise in strength of creationism. (6) The fall in scientific and technical education in favour of finance, law or management is thus going in the opposite direction to official speeches. (7) We have seen in Iraq what a company (and its officers) without knowledge of a country's culture or the complexity of a foreign society could do. The result is that the Americans leave Iraq being perceived primarily as occupiers and not liberators, thus forcing the complete departure of US troops. And the mismanagement of the Iraqi adventure leaves lasting negative marks throughout the Middle East, a region of strategic importance to Washington. Source: Washington Post, 12/12/2011 (8) As Andy Xie wrote in an excellent article in Caixin of 09/12/2011, for decades the US system has strengthened undue privilege at the expense of the general good. (9) Source: New York Times, 28/11/2011 (10) Source: New York Times, 24/03/2011 (11) Education is also an infrastructure in fact. (12) Source: Greenbiz, 19/05/2011 (13) Source: New York Times, 18/11/2011 (14) Source: MSNBC, 25/11/2011 (15) And it's still possible that this figure will reach +50% because many sales were not taken into account pending validation of their status by the competent authority. Source: USAToday, 01/12/2011 (16) Firearms sales are on the increase since the beginning of the crisis. (17) It also fuels, with the scarcity of jobs, a growing exodus of Americans overseas. Sources: CNBC, 06/12/2011; RT, 08/12./2011 (18) In 2016, the United States have been driven to review their unconditional alliance with Israel. First, because the TP and OWS agree on this point, wishing to drastically reduce the military budget and refusing overseas interventionism and, secondly, because the end of the Dollar monopoly over the price of raw materials, of which oil will make the cost of this unconditional alliance too high for Washington. (19) Sources: William Pfaff, 22/11/2011; People's Daily, 01/12/2011 (20) The name of the future President of the United States is of little importance because he will be a lame President and, de facto, a simple transition against a backdrop of chaos. The competing personalities illustrate the situation: Obama in which everyone, including his supporters, has seen the lack of stature and political will, Mitt Romney of whom even the Republicans (especially the TP) don't know quite know what think and Newt Gingrich is a complete demagogue without any conviction. The three are, in any case, the reflection of the powers in place in Wall Street and Washington, chosen because they are controllable... therefore irrelevant in a time of serious crisis. Sources: Reason, 12/09/2011 (21) We see how the UK is in the process of falling apart, in hitting the emerging continental sovereign which is Euroland with full force: a coalition on the verge of breaking-up and especially stepped up threats of separatism by the Scottish and Welsh leaders (sources Scottish TV, 12/12/2011, Wales Online, 07/12/2011). And, as regards France, our team fully shares the anticipations of Franck Biancheri in the French version of his book "The World Crisis: The Path to the World afterwards; (the relevant thirty or so pages do not appear in the versions published in other languages). He anticipates a major crisis in the French institutional system by 2020 at the latest if the state is not able to "break its Parisian centralism" and to be "polycentric" using the country's regional cities. A growing majority of French people no longer recognize in the Parisian elite in increasingly weak actual power (due to European integration) the legitimacy to decide what France is and what the French want, all at an increasingly unbearable cost. Here also, the model inherited from the Revolution and Empire (late eighteenth century like the United States Constitution) is coming to an end under the attacks of a world that the crisis is changing at high speed. (22) Our team, mainly European, has taken the liberty of suggesting the courses of constitutional development in the Recommendations section, particularly because, in recent months, a large number of American subscribers have asked us to do so. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Update: “Welfare State” Posted: 09 Apr 2012 08:38 PM PDT BJF discusses Ag, Hunt brothers scenarios, and an article by Gary North in the 4.9.12 Silver from BrotherJohnF: Got Physical ? ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Avenir des USA / 2012-2016 (3° partie) - La décomposition du tissu socio-politique US Posted: 09 Apr 2012 08:01 PM PDT - Extrait GEAB N°60 (15 décembre 2011) -  La détérioration du tissu socio-économique et socio-politique des Etats-Unis est un phénomène qui s'est engagé il y a déjà une quarantaine d'années. Dans de précédents GEAB, nous avons souligné l'importance des ruptures du tournant des années 1970 dans la dynamique américaine : fin du lien fixe entre le Dollar et l'or, défaite dans la guerre du Vietnam, « impeachment » du président Nixon, dernière période des grandes inventions/aventures scientifiques US (conquête spatiale, Internet,…), etc…  Un aspect en particulier nous semble stratégiquement important et déterminant pour la période qui s'ouvre : l'effondrement du système éducatif (1). Pour simplifier, LEAP/E2020 estime que le passage au cours des années 1970 à un système éducatif fondé sur l'évaluation des élèves via des QCM, du primaire jusqu'à l'université, a généré un affaiblissement radical et durable de la formation des générations américaines aujourd'hui âgées de moins de 40 ans. Parallèlement, cela a accentué la mise en place d'un système éducatif à deux vitesses, éloignant encore plus les élites sociales du pays de la classe moyenne, du fait des coûts croissants d'accès à un enseignement de qualité. Enfin, la commercialisation (2) tous azimuts, cumulée avec l'enseignement à distance ou à domicile, a porté un coup fatal à toute cohérence et exigence générale de qualité dans le système éducatif américain (3). D'une manière générale, sans qu'ils soient responsables de la situation, les moins de quarante ans aux Etats-Unis sont beaucoup moins bien éduqués et socialement moins intégrés (4) que leurs aînés. Cela a des conséquences bien entendu sur leur « employabilité », leur aptitude à agir dans un monde où l'internationalisation est partout et requiert des connaissances variées (comme les langues, l'histoire et la géographie par exemple), leur capacité à relayer dans la réalité les discours sur la ré- ou la nécessité de relever les défis scientifiques (5) et technologiques (6), voire même dans les capacités militaires du pays (7). Cela génère aussi une baisse de qualité de la vie démocratique et du discours politique car le citoyen est de moins en moins capable de faire le tri entre mensonges et vérité, entre information et manipulation, entre compétence et démagogie (8). La primaire républicaine pour l'élection présidentielle de 2012 est en la matière un cas d'école comme le souligne Marc Pitzke dans le Spiegel du 01/12/2011 en titrant à propos des candidats en lice : « un club de menteurs, de démagogues et d'ignorants ». Il est peu probable qu'un tel « club » aurait pu constituer les candidats à une primaire d'un des deux partis il y a trente ou quarante ans. La dégradation du tissu démocratique et politique du pays est donc bien engagée, en particulier du fait de cette « dés-éducation » générationnelle entamée dans les années 1970. Cette évolution, couplée avec l'impact très inégalitaire de la dépression actuelle qui, comme toute crise, touche plus fortement les plus faibles, renforce rapidement la fragmentation identitaire de la population des Etats-Unis. L'illusion que l'élection d'un président noir aux Etats-Unis allait aider à l'intégration des Africains-Américains s'est vite dissipée. Et la crise montre au contraire que Noirs et Latinos sont les plus affectés (9). Si les Africains-Américains semblent entamer un retour vers leurs « territoires historiques » du Sud du pays (10), les Latinos quant à eux continuent à prendre le contrôle de toute la partie Sud-Ouest des Etats-Unis. Dans cette zone, on assiste désormais à une vraie guerre dont les narcos-trafiquants sont les vecteurs. Des deux côtés de la frontière USA-Mexique, tueries, corruption, trafics sont en expansion, renforçant les réflexes identitaires des uns et des autres ; et poussant à l'adoption de lois de plus en plus dures contre les immigrants illégaux. La diminution du nombre d'emplois disponibles génère ainsi une vraie guerre pour les « jobs » entre les différentes communautés. Si le tissu socio-politique se dégrade, c'est aussi du fait de l'effondrement de la qualité des infrastructures du pays (11) : ponts, routes, voies ferrées, aéroports, digues, barrages, centrales nucléaires, pipelines, etc… auraient besoin de plus de 2 000 milliards USD pour être juste réparés (sans investissements nouveaux) (12). Or, tout le monde sait qu'un tel budget est impossible à obtenir d'un congrès bloqué et d'un budget ultra-déficitaire. Cette situation non plus n'est pas nouvelle ; mais comme pour toute chose, le temps qui passe n'arrange rien, bien au contraire.  LEAP/E2020 soulignait dès 2006 cette situation désastreuse des infrastructures et ses conséquences très graves à moyen terme pour l'économie et le tissu social du pays. Six ans sont déjà passés et en 2016 cela fera dix ans : un temps suffisant pour que des ponts en mauvais état s'effondrent ou des pipelines qui fuient finissent par exploser. Les gens ont tendance à s'habituer au mauvais état des choses pensant peu à peu que c'est leur état normal… jusqu'au jour où elles cassent complètement. En matière d'infrastructures, nous estimons que la période 2012-2016 va voir une telle évolution. Tensions inter-communautaires, détérioration du lien social, démagogie politique, « dés-éducation » massive, absence d'emplois, augmentation rapide de la pauvreté (13),… tout cela conduit à une évolution très prévisible qui a marqué les ventes du « Black Friday » de 2011 : non seulement les images ont montré au monde entier un degré de violence aberrant pour ce qui n'est censé être qu'un jour de soldes (morts, tirs d'arme à feu, pugilats, émeutes,…) (14), mais surtout le Black Friday 2011 est remarquable pour l'un des produits qui a connu la plus forte augmentation des ventes par rapport à 2010 (+32% (15)) : les armes à feu. De quoi un tel phénomène peut-il bien être le signe dans un pays qui a déjà plus de 200 millions d'armes à feu en circulation ? Selon LEAP/E2020, c'est un signe de plus que la population américaine se prépare au pire (16), et qu'elle s'y prépare de plus en plus (17). En matière de psychologie collective, il existe des phénomènes qui s'auto-entretiennent. La peur d'une évolution de la crise vers la violence se nourrit aussi des coupes budgétaires dans les forces de police et du sentiment que l'augmentation du nombre de pauvres va constituer une menace croissante pour les possédants (18). Nous avons déjà évoqué le choc social que va générer la nouvelle série de faillites bancaires de 2012. Ainsi, dès 2013, nous estimons que cette période de violence incontrôlée éclatera du fait de l'ensemble des contraintes présentées dans cette anticipation. Ce sera d'ailleurs l'un des arguments qui sera utilisé pour chercher un « sauveur » capable de restaurer la loi et l'ordre : un général-shérif. Pour conclure, nous n'examinerons pas ici la situation géopolitique des Etats-Unis pour cette période. Nous avons déjà, dans le GEAB N°59, anticipé le retrait militaire US hors d'Europe continentale pour 2017 en ajoutant plusieurs analyses sur l'évolution de la présence militaire US dans le monde. Nous rappelons que nous n'anticipons pas de conflit majeur initié par les Etats-Unis pour la période en question. En effet, le pays n'a plus les moyens politiques, budgétaires, diplomatiques et bientôt militaires pour se lancer dans de telles aventures. Comme nous n'anticipons pas d'agression directe contre les Etats-Unis provenant d'un Etat, cette option nous paraît donc non pertinente pour anticiper les événements de la période 2012-2016. Cela n'empêchera pas des « heurts » parfois violents de se dérouler entre les Etats-Unis et des pays comme l'Iran (19), la Chine, la Russie,… mais ils resteront de nature infra-conflictuelle (attaques informatiques, espionnages, sabotages,…). L'actuelle tentative de l'administration Obama de déclencher une mini Guerre Froide avec la Chine (20) tournera court pour deux raisons : . elle est à vocation électorale pour crédibiliser la stature d'homme d'Etat d'Obama à un an des élections (21) . elle est le fait d'un pays désargenté qui « menace son banquier » (un banquier bien armé qui plus est) ; ce qui ne peut pas aller bien loin.  Last but not least, nous considérons que 2013/2015 est une période susceptible de voir l'ordre constitutionnel des Etats-Unis être bouleversé par les évènements. Les tensions internes du pays, les pressions extérieures et le degré de méfiance voire de haine des différentes communautés entre elles (ethniques, sociales, religieuses, …) vont rendre de plus en plus difficile le déroulement du processus inventé il y a plus de deux cents ans par les Pères fondateurs du pays. Comme le Royaume-Uni et la France, les Etats-Unis comptent parmi les pays dont la structure politique et le système institutionnel sont parmi les plus anciens en activité. Loin d'être un gage de durée, cette caractéristique est, en période de grande transition historique, plutôt un handicap majeur, car porteur d'obsolescence (22). D'ailleurs, depuis deux ans environ, le débat sur la Constitution du pays s'est ouvert aux Etats-Unis. C'était auparavant un sujet tabou : la Constitution, texte sacré, était non questionnable sauf à être « anti-américain ». Aujourd'hui, que ce soit pour revenir à l'esprit des fondateurs ou à la lettre du texte, tous deux jugés perdus (thèse notamment des TP), ou au contraire pour l'adapter au XXI° siècle (thèse plus gauchisante, tendance OWS), le débat existe. Et dans les conversations privées, ce thème, impensable il y a seulement trois ou quatre ans, a droit de cité. A moyen et long terme, c'est une bonne chose pour permettre l'évolution et l'adaptation du pays (23) ; mais à court terme, cela traduit le désarroi croissant de l'opinion publique et la fragilité toujours plus dangereuse des élites au pouvoir. Cette combinaison est traditionnellement propice à des remises en cause de l'ordre institutionnel, à l'occasion de graves chocs affectant la psyché collective. Et comme nous l'anticipons, ce ne sont pas ces chocs qui vont manquer dans les cinq années à venir ; dans un pays insolvable et ingouvernable. --------- Notes: (1) Source : NPR, 16/03/2010 (2) La qualité des diplômes ne bénéficie d'aucun contrôle sérieux. Source : New York Times, 22/11/2011 (3) Pour ce qui est des « universités d'élite » et de l'éternel argument qu'elles sont les meilleures au monde, nous renvoyons à notre anticipation de 2007 publiée dans le GEAB N°18 : « Valeur des diplômes universitaires internationaux : Quels choix faire aujourd'hui pour avoir un diplôme international toujours valable dans dix à vingt ans? ». Quatre ans plus tard, cette analyse nous paraît avoir encore gagné en crédibilité. Et elle recoupe d'autres études comme celle publiée le 26/10/2011 par l'excellent site criseusa sous le titre : « La crise et l'enseignement supérieur aux USA : Les fausses idées sur l'économie de l'intelligence aux USA ». (4) Cet aspect recouvre deux choses : les milieux moins favorisés, qui incluent dorénavant l'essentiel de la classe moyenne, ont rencontré des difficultés croissantes à faire accéder leurs enfants aux meilleures universités. Ce phénomène est bien entendu fortement renforcé par la crise qui voit les droits d'inscription augmenter et les revenus baisser. Cela réduit la diversité sociale des élites à venir du pays. Et à l'inverse, le pays se prive de compétences multiples en cassant cette échelle sociale que constitue l'éducation. Les Etats-Unis ne sont pas le seul pays occidental à faire face à de telles évolutions. Mais, avec le Royaume-Uni, c'est le seul à être aussi fortement touché par cette tendance et depuis aussi longtemps. (5) La montée en puissance du créationnisme en est une autre illustration. (6) La chute des formations scientifiques et techniques au profit des secteurs de la finance, du droit ou de la gestion va ainsi dans le sens contraire des discours officiels (7) On a vu en Irak ce que pouvait donner une troupe (et des dirigeants) sans connaissances sur la culture d'un pays ou la complexité d'une société étrangère. Le résultat est que les Américains quittent l'Irak en étant perçus essentiellement comme des occupants et non pas comme des libérateurs : cela a ainsi obligé au départ l'intégralité des troupes US. Et la mauvaise gestion de l'aventure irakienne laisse des traces négatives durables dans tout le Moyen-Orient, région d'importance stratégique pour Washington. Source : Washington Post, 12/12/2011 (8) Comme le remarque Andy Xie dans un excellent article de Caixin du 09/12/2011, le système américain renforce depuis plusieurs décennies les privilèges indus de certaines catégories au détriment de l'intérêt collectif. (9) Source : New York Times, 28/11/2011 (10) Source : New York Times, 24/03/2011 (11) L'éducation est aussi une infra-structure en fait. (12) Source : Greenbiz, 19/05/2011 (13) Source : New York Times, 18/11/2011 (14) Source : MSNBC, 25/11/2011 (15) Et encore, il est possible que ce chiffre atteigne +50% car nombre de ventes n'était pas comptabilisé dans l'attente de la validation de leur statut par l'administration compétente. Source : USAToday, 01/12/2011 (16) Source : Guardian, 15/12/2011 (17) Puisque les ventes d'armes sont en hausse depuis le début de la crise. (18) Elle alimente aussi, avec la raréfaction des emplois, un exode croissant d'Américains vers l'étranger. Sources : CNBC, 06/12/2011 ; RT, 08/12/2011 (19) En 2016, les Etats-Unis auront été conduits à revoir leur alliance inconditionnelle avec Israël. D'une part parce que TP et OWS s'entendent sur ce point en voulant réduire radicalement le budget militaire et en refusant l'interventionnisme extérieur ; d'autre part parce que la fin du monopole du Dollar sur le prix des matières premières, dont le pétrole, rendra le coût de cette alliance inconditionnelle trop élevé pour Washington. (20) Sources : William Pfaff, 22/11/2011 ; People's Daily, 01/12/2011 (21) Le nom du futur président des Etats-Unis n'a que peu d'importance car il sera un président paralysé et qui de facto sera une simple transition sur fond de chaos. Les personnalités en lice illustrent bien la situation : Obama dont tout le monde, y compris ses supporters, a pu constater l'absence d'envergure et de volonté politique ; Mitt Romney dont même les Républicains (surtout les TP) ne savent pas trop quoi penser et Newt Gingrich qui est un démagogue complet sans aucune conviction. Les trois sont de toute façon l'expression des puissances en place à Wall Street et Washington, choisis parce qu'ils sont contrôlables… donc sans importance en période de crise grave. Sources : Reason, 12/09/2011 (22) On voit comment le Royaume-Uni est en train de se disloquer en heurtant de plein fouet le souverain continental émergent qu'est l'Euroland : coalition au bord de la rupture et surtout menaces renforcées de séparatisme formulées par les dirigeants écossais et gallois (sources : Scottish TV, 12/12/2011 ; Wales Online, 07/12/2011). Et pour ce qui est de la France, notre équipe partage complètement les anticipations de Franck Biancheri dans la version française de son livre « Crise mondiale : en route pour le monde d'après » (la trentaine de pages concernées ne figure pas dans les versions parues dans d'autres langues). Il anticipe une crise majeure du système institutionnel français d'ici 2020 au plus tard si l'Etat n'est pas capable de « casser son centralisme parisien » et de se « polycentrer » en utilisant les métropoles régionales du pays. Une majorité croissante de Français ne reconnaît plus à des élites parisiennes aux pouvoirs réels de plus en plus faibles (du fait de l'intégration européenne) la légitimité de décider de ce qu'est la France et de ce que veulent les Français ; tout cela pour un coût de moins en moins supportable. Là aussi, le modèle hérité de la Révolution et de l'Empire (fin XVIII° siècle comme la Constitution des Etats-Unis) touche à sa fin sous les coups de boutoir d'un monde que la crise fait changer à grande vitesse. (23) Notre équipe, bien qu'européenne pour l'essentiel, se permet de suggérer des pistes d'évolution constitutionnelle dans la partie Recommandations ; notamment parce que, au cours des derniers mois, de nombreux abonnés américains nous ont demandé de le faire. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Prices Are Set for Further Decline Posted: 09 Apr 2012 07:55 PM PDT The first primary concern for gold bugs should be the price behavior of the US Dollar Index recently. The dollar has rallied sharply higher after carving out a higher low on the daily chart. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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