saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Risk vs. Reward (Au style)
- Perhaps One Of The Best Indicators For Gold
- The Why And How Of Adding Gold To Your Portfolio With ETFs
- The CFTC and Silver
- On Precious Metals Backwardation
- The Bull Market in Gold and Silver Prevails
- Turkish Government to “Transfer” Citizen Gold
- The Gold Sector Is On Sale
- Turk: Hyperinflation Is On Its Way
- The Gold Sector Is On Sale: Michael Fowler
- Demand to Buy Gold ‘At Risk’ from China Slowdown
- "Buy This Gold Dip" As $2,000/oz Possible - Thomson Reuters GFMS
- Ted Butler comments on silver position limits
- Links 3/22/12
- Klapwijk: ‘Buy This Gold Dip’ Before $2,000/oz.
- Why Gold Can Go the Distance
- Precious metal prices weaken on China and Europe concerns
- Catching the "Silver Crusher" Algorithm in the Act
- Many economic numbers don’t account for inflation
- James Turk: Bernanke goes to (my) college
- New York Sun: Bernanke 101
- Four King World News Blogs/Interviews
- British Treasury's reserve boost plan doesn't include gold
- LISTEN: Monty Guild talks with Chris Waltzek
- Ron Hera: Fiat Currencies are Corrupt & Immoral
- The Lost River Gold Mine
- Gold Looks Terrible Part II: Clarifying Thoughts
- A Question Australia Might Have to Answer
- Bernanke's Take on the Gold Standard and the Conceit of Central Bankers
- Gold “Remains Vulnerable” while “Silver Support Threatened” by Downtrend, UK Deficit “Surprises” Ahead of Budget
| Posted: 22 Mar 2012 06:14 AM PDT The broad market, supported by the glorified boiler rooms on Wall Street, the glorified infomercials in the mainstream financial media and the glorified monetary clerks at the Fed, operates to its own set of rules and cycles. For instance, now we have conventional investors who used make cracks about their 401k's becoming 201k's actually becoming hopeful that they will regain all of their lost value. The wonders of inflationary monetary policy has brought this prospect tantalizingly close to becoming reality. Close, but… Over in the gold sector however, where investment is actually a form of revolution (against inflationary fiat monetary systems), it is not so easy. Investors simplymust be mindful of the risk vs. reward setups at all times because the same forces arrayed in support of the stock market are lined up against the barbarous relic. I am not saying this is a conspiratorial cabal, but I am saying that macro manipulation (like the recent 'reworking' of US Treasury yield curves) is just the way it is, whether it is planned out in the shadows to the most minute details, or just the result of embedded 'business as usual' academic myopia in a fiat system. Take today for instance; it is a fine day for precious metals investors who are prepared for it. The caution signals were all there and it is now time to think like a capitalist… like a predator… like a revolutionary… like someone who avoided the worst of what the manipulative entities had to dish out and is now in evaluation mode as to how to proceed. You are a precious metals player? You are at war. Win the friggin' thing. With that, we take a quick reading of two indicators NFTRH and its subscribers have been watching.  Bullish Percent Index on the GDM gold miner index can continue to decline to target. Will this come with a final regurgitation and capitulation? I don't know, so that is why I am slowly picking off individual items as they come on sale. We began watching this one when HUI/GDM failed to make a higher high at the equivalent of HUI 555 in February.  We have been watching for a projected double bottom in the leading HUI-Gold ratio for the better part of a year now, since it broke below an important moving average. This has allowed NFTRH analysis to temper its enthusiasm despite wildly bullish bigger picture projections. We are almost there folks, and I suspect a large portion of the gold 'community' wishes it had more cash reserves in the event this signal registers. When you are at war, you do not personalize the enemy. You plot, you analyze, you gain intelligence and you survive long enough to employ tactical countermeasures. Given the sentiment backdrop, which we have also been keeping a close eye on, one wonders if the massive topping pattern on the weekly HUI (yes, we are factoring that as well) is little more than fodder for trend followers and gold perma bears to scare gold bugs with. What the heck, let's throw up (apt wording, isn't it?) one more graph. Sentimentrader.com's Public Opinion data out just two days ago has finally taken a hard lurch down to where a precious metals bull with cash on hand would want to see it. Unless the rules have changed, you never but never feel actionably bullish when the public is red lining bullish optimism and you never but never get bearish – as long as the secular bull remains intact – when it is green lined.  The working price target for Au is lower, but we are getting there and I am getting more bullish by the week because data points are starting to converge all over the place. There is a level of concern about the technical pattern on HUI, GDM, etc., but in the precious metals, sentiment usually wins and it surely has the power to invalidate a chart pattern; neuter it if you will. We shall certainly see soon enough. You have got to love the markets. You really have got to. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
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| Perhaps One Of The Best Indicators For Gold Posted: 22 Mar 2012 06:14 AM PDT By Oliver Juergens: Gold continues to be one of the favorite assets for many investors and some even have an almost religious believe in the yellow metal but not many investors actually take the time to look for the main drivers of the price of gold. It is often assumed that fear, supply and demand or the threat of hyperinflation drive gold and while there is some truth to any of those arguments, the main driver for the price of gold still remains the real interest rate. Naturally we always look at U.S. rates first (I do too!) when looking at any asset class or when looking for an indicator, but after I did some research it turned out that the Chinese real interest rate and here particularly the inflation rate mattered the most for the price of gold. You can easily explain it by the enormous amount of people and almost all Complete Story » |
| The Why And How Of Adding Gold To Your Portfolio With ETFs Posted: 22 Mar 2012 05:30 AM PDT By Morningstar: By Abraham Bailin Fear and uncertainty have prompted a consistent interest in gold, fueling the metal's decade-long upward tear. Gold's runup has likely left many investors wondering whether they should build a position or keep their distance from the shiny metal entirely. Investing in gold is not necessarily a priority for everyone. Speculators might be attracted by the potential for eye-popping returns, but history has shown that successfully timing a short-run gold investment is not an easy task. When bullion prices are skyrocketing, it's all too easy to jump on the gilded bandwagon. Gold prices soared in the early 1980s, and many speculative investors poured into the market only to lose their shirts after the price of gold collapsed. But beyond being a tool for speculation, gold has some valuable uses in a dollar-based portfolio, and the rise of gold bullion exchange-traded funds has allowed investors seeking the diversification potential Complete Story » |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2012 05:14 AM PDT
from Gata.org: Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): Drawing on data collected by Nanex, Zero Hedge tonight calls attention to some high-frequency trading done yesterday to smash the price of silver down: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/catching-silver-crusher-algorithm-act Some steadfast friends of GATA keep sending notes about such stuff to members of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the hope that the commission's 3-year-old (or is it 4 now?) supposed investigation of the silver market will report evidence of manipulation, and we hate to discourage them. But the delay of the investigation signifies plainly enough that the CFTC knows that what is going on in silver (and gold) is essentially a U.S. government operation implemented through a de-facto U.S. government agency, JPMorganChase & Co., and the commission just can't do anything about it. Not just gold and silver price suppression but commodity price suppression generally long has been U.S. government policy. Indeed, it's miraculous that the toasted remnants of CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who got GATA's Bill Murphy and Adrian Douglas into the commission's landmark hearing on silver on March 25, 2010, putting the silver suppression scheme on the public record and sparking the metal's sharp ascent, haven't been discovered in a Bessemer converter somewhere. Anybody who wants to know about the suppression of precious metals prices and the purposes behind it already knows or easily can find out. The bigger question is who dares acknowledge it and who doesn't. Read More @ Gata.org |
| On Precious Metals Backwardation Posted: 22 Mar 2012 04:51 AM PDT
from Zerohedge.com:
Submitted by Keith Weiner of Keith Weiner's Posterous blog, The March silver futures contract first entered backwardation on Mar 9 and with a few zigs and zags has not only remained there but has gone deeper and deeper in. The April gold future just entered backwardation today. See the graph below (backwardation is when (Spot(bid) – Future(offer) > 0). We shall see what the coming days bring for the April gold future, but the fact that backwardation has occurred at all is significant. The fact that it is now a "normal" occurrence since fall 2008 indicates a deep pathology. I have written in the past about gold and silver backwardation (http://keithweiner.posterous.com/debunking-gold-manipulation andhttp://keithweiner.posterous.com/the-decline-and-fall-of-silver-backwardation andhttp://keithweiner.posterous.com/when-gold-backwardation-becomes-permanent). The gist is that one can look at the spread between the price of a future vs. the price in the spot market of the same commodity. Read More @ Zerohedge.com |
| The Bull Market in Gold and Silver Prevails Posted: 22 Mar 2012 04:46 AM PDT
These dramatic forced price falls are fortunately accompanied by heavy buying by China, Russia, India and others. All the elitists are doing is giving long-term investors an opportunity to purchase both metals at prices far below their real value. Official government inflation figures say gold should be selling at about $2,500 an ounce. Real inflation statistics would have gold selling today at almost $9,000. Such deliberate under pricing is accompanied by financial chaos in Europe and England, high oil prices that reflect the possibility of conflict in the Middle East, the results of $1.4 trillion in loans to 800 European banks, England on the edge of bankruptcy and the continual quantitative easing and things such as Operation Twist by the Federal Reserve. The official government line on statistics is all lies. We see one research report after another pandering to these falsities, which is next to worthless. The professionals and investors continue to use these bogus figures and continue to lose money in the process. |
| Turkish Government to “Transfer” Citizen Gold Posted: 22 Mar 2012 04:38 AM PDT Turkish Government "Goes For Gold"; Seeks To "Transfer" Private Gold Holdings Into Bank System
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| Posted: 22 Mar 2012 04:34 AM PDT
The Gold Report: Let's start with the changing risk picture in the gold space. Are there no low-risk companies in the gold space today? Michael Fowler: I think that is correct, Brian. Right now, any gold stock is fairly risky due to a combination of factors. First off, gold stocks and the gold price are very volatile. Second, gold mining is a tough business, subject to unforeseen circumstances. TGR: If investors have to assume risk with gold equities, does it make sense to go with small- and mid-cap companies where the rewards can be higher? MF: Yes, I think investors should be more focused on junior producers and, to some extent, explorers. That is where you will get the most gain. TGR: On March 14, the gold price dropped $40/ounce (oz); in late February it crashed $110/oz in one day. Is this due to the perception of a strong U.S. economy, or is that too simplistic? MF: I think that is correct and somewhat simplistic. Before the recent release of good economic data, the feeling was that the Federal Reserve would enter into a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), to increase its balance sheet and monetary liquidity. Now that the U.S. economy is moving along at a reasonable, although slow, clip, the Fed is hesitant to go the QE3 route. As a result, gold has sold off. TGR: Should we expect more of the same in 2012? MF: While gold will be difficult in the short term, my thesis on gold is very bullish. The whole world is involved in increasing both the money supply and liquidity. Interest rates are very low and it seems as though the Federal Reserve will not increase them for the time being. Countries around the world are engaging in almost competitive devaluation of their currencies. For the longer term, this is very good for gold. TGR: When do you expect that uptick to occur, perhaps when the next battle over raising the U.S. debt ceiling starts? MF: That would help, I suppose. When the U.S. presidential election gets closer, there will be more fuel for gold. For the next month or so, gold will have a problem but after that, it will turn around. |
| Turk: Hyperinflation Is On Its Way Posted: 22 Mar 2012 03:45 AM PDT James Turk discusses how fiat currencies may collapse, and how we will face hyperinflation. from AltInvestorshangout: ~TVR |
| The Gold Sector Is On Sale: Michael Fowler Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:47 AM PDT |
| Demand to Buy Gold ‘At Risk’ from China Slowdown Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:40 AM PDT |
| "Buy This Gold Dip" As $2,000/oz Possible - Thomson Reuters GFMS Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:37 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Ted Butler comments on silver position limits Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:09 AM PDT Via Ed Steer at Casey Research http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edi...-algorithm-act Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary for his paying subscribers yesterday...and here are a couple of free paragraphs... "For more than 30 years, I have noticed that on unique U.S. holidays, when Europe is open for business and the US closed, worldwide trading almost stops altogether in gold and silver. That wouldn't seem to be the case if the COMEX were [smaller than the LBMA]. Further, the most dominant COMEX traders are also the most dominant traders on the LBMA and the OTC markets...and the allegations of manipulation are principally aimed at these traders anyway." "If there is such massive trading taking place away from the COMEX in gold and silver, then why are those big dominant players, such as JPMorgan, fighting so bitterly to prevent position limits from coming into law? After all, if there are such big liquid gold and silver markets apart from the COMEX out there, then why don't these commercial crooks just go trade there and avoid the CFTC and position limits completely? I'll tell you why – there are no big liquid markets elsewhere that the commercials can run to; they know they can't just pick up and leave the COMEX or the price of silver would explode. That's because the long side of COMEX silver is not concentrated and, therefore, not potentially restricted by position limits as the short side is." "Specifically, the big COMEX silver short, JPMorgan, can't just move its concentrated and manipulative short position elsewhere...and because of this, it's forced to fight against silver position limits to the bitter end. To abandon the COMEX would create a void on the short side that must be met by short selling by others. If the short side were currently attractive to others (to the extent of JPMorgan's current position), the other sellers would have already sold short, which has not occurred. The only possible inducement for others to replace JPMorgan on the short side is higher prices. In fact, this is the clearest proof of all that JPMorgan has manipulated the price of silver. In any alleged manipulation, the key question is always what the price would be if the manipulator didn't hold its concentrated position. If the answer is that the price structure would most likely be radically different without such a concentrated position, then the conclusion must be that the concentrated position is manipulative to the price. In silver, it's simple; without JPMorgan's concentrated short position on the COMEX, the price of silver would be sharply higher. Surely, no one would argue that if JPMorgan eliminated its COMEX short position that would cause the price of silver to fall." |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:36 PM PDT Marmageddon: New Zealand runs out of unique spread AP Something not wholly uninteresting happened the other day at the EFSF Yanis Varoufakis Corruption threatens China's future Ed Chancellor, Financial Times. True but why does no one make the same observation about the US? The Dallas Fed Is Calling For The Immediate Breakup Of Large Banks Business Insider (furzy mouse) How the German Economy Became a Model Der Spiegel Ox Carts and No Coffee Building a Monastery the Medieval Way Der Spiegel The ex-FBI informant with a change of heart: 'There is no real hunt. It's fixed' Guardian (hat tip reader May S) Obama to order expedited action on Keystone pipeline's southern piece The Hill (hat tip Lambert) Study finds no link between oil drilling, gas prices AP Speculation Responsible for Portion of Oil Price Run-Up, But Administration Looks Elsewhere for Solutions Dave Dayen, Firedoglake Determinants of banking system fragility: A regional perspective VoxEU JPMorgan Joins BofA in Cutting Mortgage Traders Bloomberg House Subpoenas MF Global's Assistant Treasurer O'Brien Jesse SUV Burning Spurred Internal Debate at DHS on Its Role Regarding Occupy, First Amendment Activity Truthout (hat tip Lambert) Soviet Leader: Chernobyl Nuclear Accident Caused the Collapse of the USSR George Washington Bolivia has transformed itself by ignoring the Washington Consensus Guardian (hat tip reader May S) Afghan villagers say shootings were revenge Christian Science Monitor (hat tip reader May S) Israel 'turning blind eye' to West Bank settlers' attacks on Palestinians (hat tip reader May S) Supply side economics and human nature mathbabe Antidote du jour (hat tip reader furzy mouse). This cat has a future in banking:
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| Klapwijk: ‘Buy This Gold Dip’ Before $2,000/oz. Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:29 PM PDT Gold has broken below recent support at $1,640/oz. and reached as low as $1,632.45/oz. this morning – below its recent low and its lowest price since January 16. Gold looks like it will go lower on technical weakness and the next level of support is $1,600/oz. |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2012 10:05 PM PDT Gold's been knocked down lately, but several enduring factors have conditioned the yellow metal for a comeback. The yellow metal will go the distance, and with bullion below its long-term average, it makes for a rare and attractive entry point for investors today. |
| Precious metal prices weaken on China and Europe concerns Posted: 21 Mar 2012 10:00 PM PDT Growth concerns about China and Europe have stung markets again this morning - pushing the dollar back up towards 80 on the USDX and hurting precious metals. The gold price has fallen below ... |
| Catching the "Silver Crusher" Algorithm in the Act Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price traded in a ten dollar range yesterday...and the Kitco chart for gold looks pretty similar for the last three trading days...with the gold price getting sold off during the London trading day...the low coming at the Comex open...and the price being capped sometime before lunch in New York. You can tell that gold wanted to rise more than it did again yesterday, but there were willing sellers present in both the London and New York morning trading sessions. Once the high was in, the price wasn't allowed to get far after that. Gold closed the electronic trading session in New York at $1,650.10 spot...down 70 cents on the day. Net volume was only 112,000 contracts, which was even lighter than Tuesday.
Here's the New York Spot Gold [Bid] chart on its own. The low of the day came at precisely 8:30 a.m. Eastern...and then there was the seller waiting to peal about twelve bucks off the price once gold got too frisky to the upside at 10:15 a.m.
The price pattern in silver was identical...and you can see that silver really wanted to fly by the saw-tooth pattern during the New York trading session. The silver price made more than half a dozen attempts to move sharply higher...and all met the same fate. Silver closed at $32.17 spot...up a whole penny. Net volume was around 34,000 contracts.
Here's the New York trading day on its own...and all the rally attempts stand out more clearly on this chart.
The same price pattern occurred in gold as well, but it was more subdued. The dollar index spent virtually the entire trading day within 25 basis points of 79.60...basically closing unchanged from Tuesday. I think it's fair to say that the dollar index and the gold price were in tight sync with each other pretty much most of the Wednesday trading day. Almost too tight.
Talking about tight syncs...the gold stocks followed the gold price like a shadow yesterday...and the HUI finished down a smallish 0.33%.
Virtually all the stocks that make up Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index were down on the day...and it closed down as well...0.21%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 114 gold, along with 121 silver contracts were posted for delivery yesterday. The only short/issuer was JPMorgan in its in-house trading account...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the long/stopper on all of them. In silver, as I predicted, Jefferies was the short/issuer on all 121 silver contracts...and 110 of those contracts were received/stopped by JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is linked here...and it's worth a look. There was no reported change in GLD yesterday...but an authorized participant withdrew 825,549 troy ounces of silver from SLV yesterday. There was no sales report from the U.S Mint. The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 300,679 ounces of silver on Tuesday...and shipped 65,386 ounces out the door. Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary for his paying subscribers yesterday...and here are a couple of free paragraphs... "For more than 30 years, I have noticed that on unique U.S. holidays, when Europe is open for business and the US closed, worldwide trading almost stops altogether in gold and silver. That wouldn't seem to be the case if the COMEX were [smaller than the LBMA]. Further, the most dominant COMEX traders are also the most dominant traders on the LBMA and the OTC markets...and the allegations of manipulation are principally aimed at these traders anyway." "If there is such massive trading taking place away from the COMEX in gold and silver, then why are those big dominant players, such as JPMorgan, fighting so bitterly to prevent position limits from coming into law? After all, if there are such big liquid gold and silver markets apart from the COMEX out there, then why don't these commercial crooks just go trade there and avoid the CFTC and position limits completely? I'll tell you why – there are no big liquid markets elsewhere that the commercials can run to; they know they can't just pick up and leave the COMEX or the price of silver would explode. That's because the long side of COMEX silver is not concentrated and, therefore, not potentially restricted by position limits as the short side is." "Specifically, the big COMEX silver short, JPMorgan, can't just move its concentrated and manipulative short position elsewhere...and because of this, it's forced to fight against silver position limits to the bitter end. To abandon the COMEX would create a void on the short side that must be met by short selling by others. If the short side were currently attractive to others (to the extent of JPMorgan's current position), the other sellers would have already sold short, which has not occurred. The only possible inducement for others to replace JPMorgan on the short side is higher prices. In fact, this is the clearest proof of all that JPMorgan has manipulated the price of silver. In any alleged manipulation, the key question is always what the price would be if the manipulator didn't hold its concentrated position. If the answer is that the price structure would most likely be radically different without such a concentrated position, then the conclusion must be that the concentrated position is manipulative to the price. In silver, it's simple; without JPMorgan's concentrated short position on the COMEX, the price of silver would be sharply higher. Surely, no one would argue that if JPMorgan eliminated its COMEX short position that would cause the price of silver to fall." I have the usual number of stories for you today...and I hope you have time for the ones that interest you. That zerohedge.com piece should wake you up to the ugly truth about these markets...and how they are managed. British Treasury's reserve boost plan doesn't include gold. Deutsche Bank to open London gold vault. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Recovery Not Real, Crisis Dead Ahead. New York Sun: Bernanke 101. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeAnnuity Case Chills Insurance AgentsLast month, Glenn Neasham, an independent insurance agent, was ordered to spend 90 days in jail on a felony-theft conviction for selling a complex annuity to an 83-year-old woman who prosecutors alleged had shown signs of dementia. The agent's conviction, by a state-court jury in Lake County, Calif., is sending shivers down the spines of Mr. Neasham's peers across the country. They can't recall another case where an agent was sent behind bars for selling an annuity. Agents "who steal from vulnerable seniors will not get away with their shameful tricks," Steve Poizner, the state's then-insurance commissioner, said in a statement in 2010 when Mr. Neasham was arrested. Mr. Neasham, 52 years old, maintains the woman appeared fine and wasn't confused at the time of the 2008 transaction and that he acted appropriately. His lawyer has filed notice of appeal, and a bail hearing is scheduled for this week. This Wall Street Journal story showed up on their website on Sunday...and I thank Casey Research's own Alex Daley for sending it along. The link is here.  Geithner's last Debt Ceiling Request would "make you feel uncomfortable""If this were the last debt ceiling increase you could ask for, the final one, and you had to make it large enough for all current and future obligations, what would the request need to be?" Congressman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) asked Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner at a Capitol Hill hearing on Wednesday. I bet it would be a lot...and no surprise that he won't provide it in writing! This 3:09 minute youtube.com video clip was posted over at the realclearpolitics.com website yesterday...and I thank reader Brian Doyal for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  Many economic numbers don't account for inflationNow that inflation is beginning to pick up, it is vital to distinguish between what is real and what is just an illusion caused by inflation. If one does not, one might very well come away with the impression that the economy is shifting into higher gear when, in fact, it is not. Take retail sales, for example. On the surface they are encouraging, since February's sales gain was the most in five months. And since retail sales are one-half of consumers' spending, which in turn makes up two-thirds of overall economic activity, one might be tempted to conclude that the worst is over. One would be wrong. First of all, these are dollar figures, adjusted for the time of year but not for inflation. Second, most of the rise reflected a 6% surge in gasoline prices. This marketwatch.com story was posted on their Internet site on Tuesday...and I lifted it from yesterday's King Report. The link is here.  Goldman loses bid to end lawsuit over risky CDOGoldman Sachs Group Inc lost its bid to dismiss a lawsuit accusing it of defrauding investors by selling risky debt linked to subprime mortgages that it planned to bet against. The decision by U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero in New York keeps alive a hedge fund's claims over a $2 billion offering of collateralized debt obligations, amid intense scrutiny over Goldman's activities before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Marrero said the hedge fund Dodona I LLC may pursue nearly all its claims against Goldman, including that the Wall Street bank recklessly or intentionally sold the Hudson Mezzanine Funding CDOs to offload subprime risk on unsuspecting investors. Roy Stephens sent me this Reuters piece that was posted on their website last evening...and the link is here.  Finance council should speed up speculation curbs, Chilton saysA council of U.S. financial regulators should speed up Dodd-Frank Act rules needed to limit speculation on oil, natural gas, and other commodities, Bart Chilton, a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. The CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission, having delayed adopting regulations stemming from the 2010 financial-regulation overhaul, should consider asking the Financial Stability Oversight Council to complete the regulation defining which derivatives are swaps, Chilton said in a speech prepared for his appearance today before the Exchequer Club of Washington. The speculation limits rely on the definition. The speculation limits are among the most controversial requirements in Dodd-Frank and spurred more than 13,000 comments to the CFTC from supporters such as Delta Air Lines Inc. and opponents such as Barclays Plc's Barclays Capital. CFTC commissioners voted 3-2 at an Oct. 18 meeting to approve the final regulation, with Jill E. Sommers and Scott O'Malia, both Republicans, voting in opposition. A huge chunk of those 13,000 comments were about position limits in the Comex futures market in silver. This Bloomberg story was one I found posted in a GATA release yesterday. It's well worth reading...and the link is here.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Recovery Not Real, Crisis Dead AheadHere's something you don't see every day...an interview with The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. The interview runs 31:13...and the link pops up on the screen during the 1:47 introduction. It's posted over at the mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com Internet site...and I thank reader Dennis Meredith for sharing this interview with us. I haven't heard it yet, but once I've finished this column, I'll be listening...and I would suggest you do the same. The link is here.  "End of the Road" Film/Documentary TrailerThis documentary film obviously covers the big key issues that the mainstream bulls, bankers and politicians always conveniently fail to address... which they can continue doing for a time, until these issues destroy them, and the system. It features some big guns with proven track records; Peter Schiff, Eric Sprott, James Turk, Bill Murphy, Alasdair Macleod, Jim Puplava, G. Edward Griffin, Mike Maloney, James G. Rickards, Adam Fergusson MEP, Dimitri Speck. The link to the 2-minute must watch trailer, posted at youtube.com, is here...and the link to the film's website is here. I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to our attention.  British Treasury's reserve boost plan doesn't include goldThe Treasury said on Wednesday there were no plans to add to gold reserves, after Chancellor George Osborne said in a presentation of the budget that he would take the opportunity to rebuild the country's reserves. "What the Chancellor is talking about here is rebuilding the official reserves, so it's not gold-specific. It's just over financing the deficit this year by 6 billion pounds ($9.51 billion) in 2012-13 to build up the official reserves," a Treasury spokesman said. Osborne said in presenting the country's budget for fiscal 2012-2013: "We are also taking the opportunity to rebuild Britain's reserves, which had fallen to historically low levels. I can confirm our gold holdings have risen in value to 11 billion pounds." I dug this short Reuters piece out of a GATA release yesterday. It's posted over at the uk.news.yah |
| Many economic numbers don’t account for inflation Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT  Now that inflation is beginning to pick up, it is vital to distinguish between what is real and what is just an illusion caused by inflation. If one does not, one might very well come away with the impression that the economy is shifting into higher gear when, in fact, it is not. Take retail sales, for example. On the surface they are encouraging, since February's sales gain was the most in five months. And since retail sales are one-half of consumers' spending, which in turn makes up two-thirds of overall economic activity, one might be tempted to conclude that the worst is over. One would be wrong. First of all, these are dollar figures, adjusted for the time of year but not for inflation. Second, most of the rise reflected a 6% surge in gasoline prices. |
| James Turk: Bernanke goes to (my) college Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT  Talking back last night to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's lecture at George Washington University, and with particular expertise, is GoldMoney founder, Free Gold Money Report editor, and GATA consultant James Turk, who throws Austrian economics at Bernanke pretty hard, perhaps harder still because he is a graduate of that university. I borrowed the headlined and preamble from a GATA release last night. Turk's longish commentary is headlined "Bernanke Goes to College"...and it's posted at the fgmr.com Internet site. The link is here. |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT  Replying to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's lecture on Tuesday at George Washington University defending central banking against a gold standard, the New York Sun asks concisely: "The question is why, if the Federal Reserve and the system of fiat money are so superior to sound money, has our country been in such a pickle these past few years?" |
| Four King World News Blogs/Interviews Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT  The first is a Richard Russell blog entitled "Silver now outpacing Gold and Fed Frightened". The second is the must listen audio interview with John Hathaway. I posted the KWN blog of this in this column yesterday. |
| British Treasury's reserve boost plan doesn't include gold Posted: 21 Mar 2012 09:24 PM PDT  The Treasury said on Wednesday there were no plans to add to gold reserves, after Chancellor George Osborne said in a presentation of the budget that he would take the opportunity to rebuild the country's reserves. "What the Chancellor is talking about here is rebuilding the official reserves, so it's not gold-specific. It's just over financing the deficit this year by 6 billion pounds ($9.51 billion) in 2012-13 to build up the official reserves," a Treasury spokesman said. Osborne said in presenting the country's budget for fiscal 2012-2013: "We are also taking the opportunity to rebuild Britain's reserves, which had fallen to historically low levels. I can confirm our gold holdings have risen in value to 11 billion pounds." |
| LISTEN: Monty Guild talks with Chris Waltzek Posted: 21 Mar 2012 08:55 PM PDT From GoldSeek Radio: About Gold Seek Radio: More interviews @ radio.goldseek.com |
| Ron Hera: Fiat Currencies are Corrupt & Immoral Posted: 21 Mar 2012 08:52 PM PDT
Ron Hera of Heraresearch.com joined us today to share his latest opinions on why paper money is often equivalent to theft. While there are many things wrong with fiat money, the main thing is it enables government to easily pick winners and losers. If you want to take advantage of an opportunity and you're part of the in-group, all you need to do is contact your connections, get a government license or a cheap government loan/subsidy and you're in. If you're an insolvent banker who doesn't know how you're ever going to get all those mortgages paid off, you call your friendly Fed and the next thing you know, you've gotten a generous bailout and the bonuses are flowing. Obviously such inequities increase resentment among the not-so-connected group. This group is being fleeced for the benefit of the elites and cons, and they want justice. Judging from the aftermath of the financial collapse, this group is never going to get vindication because the elites look after each other and keep one another from being held accountable. Therefore, it becomes necessary for the average citizen to invest in places where he/she will not be subject to government confiscation. Ron Hera is a master at this fine art of evasive investing. This was a far ranging but extremely relevant discussion. Much more @ KerryLutz.com or @ 347.460.LUTZ |
| Posted: 21 Mar 2012 05:56 PM PDT SunnyOkagan |
| Gold Looks Terrible Part II: Clarifying Thoughts Posted: 21 Mar 2012 04:15 PM PDT
Given that, it makes sense to provide some clarification:
So ok – let's roll up our sleeves on this again… As some of you have pointed out, "it's all about time frame." There is a difference between a short-to-medium term time frame — that which applies in trading — and one that lasts for years. Even still, though, we find the investment case questionable. (More on that in a moment.) Technically speaking, right now gold is in "no man's land" (though oversold gold miners may be ripe for a tradable bounce). The daily chart for gold is in a shortable downtrend, with GLD threatening to submerge below its 200 day EMA (exponential moving average). That is not a condemnation or a guarantee of doom, but a warning sign.
What about the investment case — and the longer term chart? Let's take a look at GLD weekly:
Without getting into esoterics, it is easy to see the steady, stair-step bull run in gold has stalled out — and possibly climaxed after the sharp acceleration in 2011. Following that acceleration, we have seen a stair-step process lower and a possible double-top, leaving gold in the middle of nowhere. From a trading perspective, gold looks terrible because there is no clear read on it now. This goes for the fundamentals too. Revisiting the investment case: Let's focus a little more on why some folks are extremely long-term bullish on gold, and what has set the stage so far: Gold has been in a secular uptrend for a decade. Many arguments for gold as a long-term investment relate to the yellow metal's strong run since 2002. One could argue that gold's great run is firmly tied in to central bank trends. Gold "woke up" around the time Alan Greenspan, aka The Maestro, decided to cure the overhang of the dot com bubble by inflating yet another bubble, lowering interest rates to 1% and leaving them there for nearly a year. In addition to Greenspan's folly, the 2000′s saw the "conundrum" of falling long-term U.S. interest rates, as Chinese manufacturers and Middle East oil exporters took on a "vendor finance" relationship with the United States:
As a general backdrop to all this, emerging markets boomed, and saved money, even as the developed West gorged on leverage and debt. Thus was born the famous "global savings glut" — Bernanke's way of blaming the savers — a product of aggressive Western spending and a dollar surplus feedback loop, resulting in artificially suppressed long-term rates to go with Greenspan's suppressed short-term rates. Voila: Conditions for a cheap money boom that were also extremely supportive of gold. The whole of the '00s as a decade, in fact, was characterized by paper asset inflation, and broad currency debasement, driven by easy money policy and exacerbating macro factors. This was a goldilocks environment for gold. But how long do such goldilocks environments prevail? All good things come to an end… and most bad things too. As traders, the charts are enough to make us wary of gold. But the fundamentals are a concern too because the conditions that supported gold's rise may no longer exist. Consider:
Bullish gold and bearish long bonds? Really? Here is another funny thing: Many of those who are staunch long-term bulls on gold, are also anticipating a ferocious bear market in U.S. treasury bonds. They are rubbing their hands and waiting for the collapse of the long-bond market, at which point U.S. interest rates will be forced to sharply rise. We too like the long bond short trade (and have said as much repeatedly). But can you really expect sharply rising interest rates and rising gold simultaneously? Rising interest rates (and tanking bonds) make sense to us in the context of three scenarios:
The thing is, none of these scenarios are bullish for gold. Why? Because they all imply a monetary tightening bias of some kind. But surely it will all end in tears… won't it? We are very familiar with all the long-term arguments for being a secular bull on gold: Monetary velocity problems… the inevitability of a new Minsky moment and a worse crisis than 2008 following on the heels of our folly… the inability of the central banks to withdraw liquidity fast enough when recovery actually happens… the likelihood of another global slowdown and deflationary spiral leading to QE3, 4, 5, and so on. And to be clear, we fully accept that one of those scenarios could come to pass!
But are either of those really a sure thing, or anywhere close? And what if the price of gold falls $500 an ounce BEFORE one of those things happens? Will all those who are still committed gold bulls in the $1600s, still be gold bulls if we get a touchback to $1,000? And what happens if the economic recovery is real… or, at the very least, a long-lasting enough mirage for central banks to step back, or to allow for a rising U.S. interest rate / strengthening $USD trend? What lets us sleep at night As an example of the type of thinking that runs counter to ours, there is a Seeking Alpha article titled "Why I Sleep Better With 50% of My Money in Precious Metals." That seems crazy to us because there are multiple plausible scenarios in which gold declines by a substantial amount — $500 per ounce or more — over the next 12 to 18 months. (This possibility is heightened, as we mentioned, by the extremely heavy retail weighting in GLD.) As traders, the thing that lets us "sleep at night" is risk management and the use of stop losses. I don't know about you, but if I had half my net worth in something that could quite plausibly lose 30% of its value or more at statistically non-trivial probability, I would not be sleeping well at all. This is not a PREDICTION that gold will fall dramatically, by the way, but rather a recognition that 1) the charts are a warning sign (muddled at best), 2) the 2011 price acceleration runup may have been exhaustion, and 3) even if gold is destined to climb the mountain to $5,000 an ounce or whatever, there may well be a "Death Valley" between here and there. Happy to be long — if the price and the macro act right As a final note, as mentioned we are not gold permabears. (We are not perma anything.) Right now the gold charts are a muddled mess, and the macro environment looks distinctly disfavorable. If both those conditions change, however — if the charts again look favorable and the macro environment shifts in a clear and powerful way — then we will have no problem whatsoever buying gold again. For the moment, though, it looks "terrible" in the sense of being a directionless asset (with a near-term bearish bias) that has non-trivial risk of falling substantially in price, even if longer term monetary policy disaster scenarios come true with a lag. Flexibility is a virtue… as is the ability to hold any thesis at arm's length, rather than become married to it by dint of the demands of one's investment style. Clear as mud? Comments as always welcome… JS |
| A Question Australia Might Have to Answer Posted: 21 Mar 2012 03:51 PM PDT Can you imagine, for one horrifying second, a world with no sushi and no vodka? We can't. We can imagine a Hell of such description, yes. A fire and brimstone purgatory of infinite and unbearable pain. But not a world…at least not one in which we'd choose to live. Well, get used to it anyway, say demographic trends. By 2050, according to an ambitiously speculative forecast by TIME Magazine, "declining birth rates in two of the world's most economically and politically influential countries, Japan and Russia, will cause them to fall from their current positions as the 9th and 10th most populous nations, respectively, to 16th and 17th." The Russian population, 142 million souls strong, will collapse by some 40 million people by the middle of this century if current demographic trends continue. The Japanese population, it is well known, has been shrinking (in numbers, not height…although that may also be true) since the middle of the last decade, when it topped out around 125 million. By 2050, assuming again that current trends continue, that number will fall to around 100 million. Apparently, the Russians and the Japanese have better things to do with their time than to reproduce. "But…but…who's going to make our robots?" we hear some Reckoners wondering. "And from where will we order our matryoshka dolls?" whines another. Obviously we won't have to go without these things…especially now that the rather populous Chinese can make knockoffs for half the price. Of course populations rise and fall. That's what they do. Indigenous tribes succumb to the aspirations of conquering marauders. Then, when looters turn incumbents, when foreigners set up camp and become "locals," they in turn open themselves up for conquest from abroad…or from within. Such is the natural course of events. That's not to say politicians won't try to stop it. The political class never met a situation they didn't perceive as a problem…one in desperate need of their own unique and priceless solution. This time it's Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The newly "re-elected" Russian president has pledged to "reinvigorate" the Russian population by coaxing young couples into having more sex…or at least, more babies. We were considering all this when we returned to the sparsely populated country of our own birth. With just over 20 million souls spread over her 7,682,300 square kilometers, Australia has one of the lowest population densities in the world. Compare those figures with Hong Kong, for example, which has 6,349 people per square kilometre…or Monaco, which jams 16,923 men, woman and children into the same tiny area. Before Russians stopped having little Vlads and Natashas, the Motherland experienced many an attack from resource-hungry powers abroad…Bonaparte and Hitler being only the last two in a long line of would-be conquerors. Thus far, Australia has avoided serious challenges to her claim on golden soil and wealth for toil, on nature's gifts of beauty rich and rare. Australia "suffers" from an enticing embarrassment of riches. Flying over this vast land, we wonder for how long she'll be able to hold onto these gifts of abundant natural resources …and who might try to make them their own. Regards, Joel Bowman for The Daily Reckoning Australia The "After America" Archives... Debt-onomics and the Coming Debt-ocalypse The End of Empires Are Investment Ideas Useful? A Chinese Mini Communist Revolution The Final Countdown |
| Bernanke's Take on the Gold Standard and the Conceit of Central Bankers Posted: 21 Mar 2012 03:50 PM PDT Is there any such thing as the truth? If two people view an incident, chances are you'll get two different versions of that one event. Truth is subjective...open to interpretation, recollection and prejudice. One person's fact is another's fiction. We raise the topic because Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is back on the lecture circuit. He recently gave the first of four lectures to the poor kids of George Washington University, giving his version of how the Fed came into existence and what the Fed's purpose is. He also gave his version about the gold standard. Is it a truthful recollection of events? Before we try to answer that question - giving our own subjective version of the role of the gold standard - let's take a quick look at the bond market. Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks. When yields rise, prices fall. Many are now proclaiming an end to the great bond bull market, which got underway in the early 1980s. Is this really the case? We think the bond bubble will eventually pop. But thinking it is happening now might be jumping the gun. Check out the following chart of the US 10-year bond yield. In recent weeks, yields have jumped from around 2 per cent to 2.3 per cent. Yet in early 2011, the last time everyone was bullish on the prospects of the US and global economies, yields were nearing 3.75 per cent. And a year earlier, when the 'green shoots' from the coordinated 2009 stimulus were, apparently, everywhere, yields hit 4 per cent.  Treasury yields are meant to reflect a country's nominal economic growth potential. If you think the bond market is overvalued, you think the US economy is starting to recover and inflation will be an issue later this year and beyond. With yields just over 2 per cent, the bond market is saying the US economy is not recovering and inflation won't be a problem for the foreseeable future. The Fed's latest QE experiment is due to expire in June. The prospect of more monetary stimulus in the lead up to an election is very slim. Despite the recent sell-off, it looks to us like the bond market is still betting on renewed economic weakness ahead. The US bond market is much bigger and usually much smarter than the equity market. At the moment both have diametrically opposed views of US and global economic prospects. Who is right? We guess bonds. Right, let's get back to Bernanke and his interpretation of the gold standard. If you click on the link above, all the action starts around the 28-minute mark. Bernanke wastes no time in cracking the standard joke favoured by gold ignoramuses. That is, a whole lot of resources are wasted in digging gold up from South Africa or somewhere and putting it into another hole in a New York vault. Boom-tish! He also says a problem with the gold standard is that when economic activity heats up, the money supply increases and interest rates go down - 'the reverse of what the central bank would normally do today'. Bernanke needs to read Bastiat's What is Seen and What is Unseen. Bernanke sees the cost of the gold standard, but doesn't see the benefit. In this case, the benefit is having the market set the price of money, NOT central bankers. (So it's hardly surprising he chooses not to see that.) Under a gold standard, when economic activity heats up, gold migrates to the growing economy. Because gold is money under a gold standard, the money supply increases, which pushes the price of money (the interest rate) down. Bernanke thinks this is a bad thing. It's the opposite of what he'd do. That's why the world is in such a mess. But his thinking is completely wrong. You see, Bernanke ignores the other side of the equation. If gold migrates to the growing economy, it is fleeing somewhere else. If gold pushes up the money supply and pushes the market rate of interest down in one country, it is contracting the money supply and forcing interest rates up in another country. Bernanke does see the truth of the gold standard...that it is a natural balancing mechanism imposing constant discipline on countries. It helps establish a market rate of interest, which bestows no favours on any special interest group...be it bankers, farmers, consumers or savers. When the money supply increases (as a result of gold inflows) it represents an increase in savings. When savings are abundant, of course interest rates should fall. This is to encourage the spending of those savings, or discourage further saving and investment. On the other side of the coin, the country with gold outflows and higher interest rates experiences an economic contraction. The higher rates discourage excess consumption and encourage a rebuilding of savings and therefore investment. When interest rates rise in a free market, it's sending a signal that something is wrong. It's saying there is a lack of real savings in the economy. Higher rates and an economic contraction is the market's way of rebuilding savings, encouraging a new round of investment and innovation and setting the foundations for the next expansion. Bernanke thinks he can promote constant expansion by fiddling with the money supply. His perpetually low rates discourage saving and investment. They encourage consumption. He's doing precisely the opposite of what the market would do under a gold standard. Is one person smarter than the collective wisdom of millions? As Bernanke's lecture continues, he discusses how the 'gold standard' caused a run on the Bank of England in 1931. Fellow Daily Reckoning editor Nick Hubble tells me George Washington University is one of the most expensive uni's to go to in the world. Well, after listening to this bit - if we were a student - we'd ask for a refund. There was a 'run' on the Bank of England because after WWI, England created a 'gold-exchange standard' to replace the old gold standard. This new system ensured that England could print money to prop up its ailing post-war economy. The system effectively made the pound 'as good as gold' and other nations accumulated pounds (instead of gold) for payment of goods. The gold-exchange standard contained none of the discipline required by the traditional gold standard. It facilitated the boom of the late 1920s and when the bust came, countries holding too many pounds wanted to exchange them for gold. Of course, the Bank of England didn't have enough gold to make good on its promises so Britain went off the gold standard. And of course, Bernanke blames gold. He doesn't even distinguish between the two types of gold standards...a crucial factor in any study of depression-era economics. We suppose when an inanimate object can do your job, you may as well disparage it. That Bernanke does it so badly in front of a bunch of kids is a sad indictment on our financial and education systems. Ignorance breeds ignorance. Regards, Greg Canavan
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| Posted: 21 Mar 2012 03:34 PM PDT
Gold "Remains Vulnerable" while "Silver Support Threatened" by Downtrend, UK Deficit "Surprises" Ahead of Budget WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices rose to $1660 an ounce Wednesday morning London time – more or less where they ended last week – before easing ahead of US markets open, while stock, commodity and government bond prices held broadly steady following news that the UK government deficit rose sharply last year. Silver prices meantime dipped below $32 per ounce around lunchtime – a 1.8% drop on the week so far. "Silver is in a short-term downtrend and is likely to breach support…at $31.81," says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, who add that the next target would be $30.48. Over in India, the strike by Gold Dealers in protest at last week's gold import duty hike entered its fifth day Wednesday. "We harbor little doubt that gold remains vulnerable," says a note from UBS precious metals analyst Edel Tully. "Upside drivers are lacking and physical markets have yet to show a convincing response to lower prices." Here in the UK, the latest Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes published on Wednesday show that two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of expanding the Bank's quantitative easing program by £25 billion when the MPC met earlier this month. The majority voted to maintain the size of the program at £325 billion. The decision to leave interest rates at 0.5%, where they have been since March 2009, was unanimous. The MPC minutes noted significant risks to economic activity that might result in inflation falling materially below the [MPC's 2%] target in the medium term". MPC member Spencer Dale however, who voted to six times for a rate increase in 2011 – said in a speech Tuesday that in his view "inflation is just as likely to be above as below the inflation target in the medium term". The UK government deficit meantime rose to £12.9 billion last month – more than double consensus estimates – figures published hours before Wednesday's Budget show. Lower tax receipts contributed to the deficit growth, the Financial Times reports, with HM Revenue & Customs data showing an 8% fall in self-assessment tax revenues compared to February last year. "The fact there has been a worsening on this scale is a big surprise." Britain is expected to issue the second largest amount of government debt – known as gilts – on record this coming fiscal year, according to a Bloomberg survey of primary bond dealers. "The government has a tough balancing act," says John Wraith, London-based fixed-income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Growth is going to be at best anemic, and it's going to take a long time to reduce gilt issuance. They need to reduce debt, but if they stick rigidly to their fiscal consolidation plan, they risk killing growth." The FT argued this week that UK policymakers are engaged in financial repression, holding interest rates below inflation and creating a captive market for government bonds in an effort to lower the real value of national debt. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will warn of the US financial system's exposure to Europe when he appears before the House Oversight Committee today. "US financial firms and money market funds have had time to adjust their exposures and hedge their risks to some degree as the European situation has evolved, but the risks of contagion remain a concern for both these institutions and their supervisors and regulators," Bernanke will say, in prepared remarks published ahead of the testimony. On Tuesday, Bernanke gave the first in a series of four college lectures on the Fed's role in the economy, in which he described a gold standard as a "waste of resources" and a "far from perfect monetary system". "Since the gold standard determines the money supply, there is not much scope for the central bank to use monetary policy to stabilize the economy…Under a gold standard, typically the money supply goes up and interest rates go down in a period of strong economic activity—so that's the reverse of what a central bank would normally do today." Congressman Ron Paul last year asked Bernanke if he though gold was money, to which the Fed chairman replied 'No'. Last month, Paul held up a silver coin while questioning Bernanke, saying that it "is what the market has always said should be money". Russia's central bank gold holdings 3.1 tonnes of gold last month, equivalent to 0.35% of its official reserves, data published Tuesday show. Over in the US meantime, holdings in the world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), fell 3 tonnes to 1290.2 tonnes yesterday, having held steady for one week. Silver bullion holdings in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world's biggest silver ETF, remained steady at 9752.7 tonnes. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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