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- Gold Miner ETF Falls To 52-Week Low
- Guyana Goldfields Sees Muted Reaction to CEO Departure
- Time For Gold Miners?
- How I Made Over 900% On Natural Gas, And How You Can Do It
- Gold Mining in West Africa Promises Growth: Mark Lackey
- SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside
- Silver Should Now Work Towards Below $30.00
- South African gold production data disappoints again
- When to Acquire Silver, the Metal of Emperors?
- Seven "five star" dividend stocks you should consider now
- Jim Rogers: Is Gold Money?
- Gold Looks Absolutely Terrible
- Bullion ‘Not Looking Great’ as India Strike Continues
- Battle of Athens, Tennessee, 1946
- Embry: Debt Saturation = Higher Gold & Silver Prices
- Rally Foreseen on US GDP Surprise to Downside
- Oil price gains curtailed by Saudi comments
- Exposing Silver Mythology, Part III
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, March 20 2012
- Chinese Gold Imports Will Keep Increasing
- Gold and Silver in India..the Real Story: Jeff Clark
- U.S. has launched economic nuclear war, Jim Sinclair tells Ellis Martin
- Alasdair Macleod: Eurozone banks and contagion risk
- FT notices 'financial repression' again but still doesn't question central bankers about it
- What's really happening with gold and silver in India: Jeff Clark, Casey Research
- Three King World News Blogs
- Sinclair: The Nuclear Economic Trigger
- Silver Update: “LEAPE2020″
- Rally Has Now Transpired
- Europe’s QE3 Will Boost Gold & Silver
| Gold Miner ETF Falls To 52-Week Low Posted: 20 Mar 2012 06:00 AM PDT By Tom Lydon: An exchange traded fund that invests in gold miner stocks dropped to a new 52-week low on Tuesday, falling along with bullion prices in March. Miner stocks have trailed gold prices in recent years. Investors are walking away from gold producers and moving into bullion ETFs, pushing valuations to a record low versus the overall market, Matt Walcoff said on Bloomberg. "Buying gold and ETFs tracking bullion prices such as the $69 billion SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has become increasingly popular for investors as companies struggle to develop mines in remote locations and pay higher operating costs," according to the article. Within Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index, gold shares lost 28% last week from their high last September. High operating costs are hitting miners where it counts. Agnico-Eagle Mines of Canada lost 43% since October. This was after the company wrote down $644.9 million due to "persistently high" operating costs. "Thus Complete Story » |
| Guyana Goldfields Sees Muted Reaction to CEO Departure Posted: 20 Mar 2012 05:41 AM PDT HOUSTON – From the Chart Book. Vultures who frequent the various technical charts we constantly update in the subscriber pages know we are following Guyana Goldfields (TSX:GUY.T or GUYFF) which has seen a spectacular fall in price following the February 24 release of its initial feasibility study (FS) for the Aurora gold project in Guyana, South America.
Prior to the FS release we believe investors had very high expectations for the 4 million-plus ounce (and growing) deposit, but the engineers working on the project assumed very conservative conditions for the infrastructure and future costs (in our opinion) resulting in initial disappointment and a less than favorable response by the public. Some analysts also lowered price targets for GUY shortly thereafter. Yesterday, Monday, March 19 after the market close, GUY announced the departure of CEO Claude Lemasson, with Chairman Pat Sheridan taking the helm on an interim basis. We thought we would share a short-term volume candle chart today which shows that public reaction to the CEO departure has so far been muted. Possibly a sign that the first wave of disappointment selling may be near an exhaustion point.
The FS may have been disappointing to investors when the stock changed hands for $8.50 each, but with shares of GUY now trading at less than half that today, we would urge our institutional and deep value bargain specialist Vultures to take a good look at what information is available and to put GUY on the near-term radar screen if they have an interest in it at all. In times of Non-Fatal Disappointment Selling (NFDS) it is very difficult to gauge in advance where a company will end up proving what we call "overwhelming support" or OS on our charts. Overwhelming support is the point at which insiders, large bargain hunting speculators, deep value specialists and punters all converge on the bid, each acting in their own self-interest, making it extremely difficult for the issue to trade any lower. When OS forms, the issue has difficulty trading ANY lower even on what should be market moving news and even when gold and silver are very weak. OS is typically a time of consolidation after a large plunge, but it can be very fleeting at times. Especially if there is sudden positive or takeover news. Thus we tend to scale into a part of our positioning during NFDS events on companies we have confidence in. We wouldn't want to get shut out by a gap on unexpected market moving news in the opposite direction. One word of caution: In NFDS events the public can become very panicky or irrational and there is no way to know how far down the issue can trade once panic sets in. Prices can become extremely volatile in both directions. Once the issue "proves up" a bottom we can feel free to add the remainder of the position if we want to then. Obviously this is not a strategy for neophytes, widows or the risk averse. To the contrary, it is a very high risk play at this stage, but one we enjoy attempting from time to time with a reasonably small portion of our SRC gaming line. Our view is that a confluence of events have come together to give us a shot at acquiring an initial stake in a company that has been very good to us in the past at a reasonably inexpensive average basis if we are willing to stick with that position long enough for the disappointment to morph into anticipation again, however long that might take (possibly many months if necessary). Full due diligence a must. We could be early or wrong entirely. Caveat Utilitor.
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| Posted: 20 Mar 2012 05:38 AM PDT By Dana Blankenhorn: Whenever you see a stock near its 52-week low, the first thing you ask is whether this is a cyclical or a secular move. A cyclical move is just the normal business cycles. Industries go down, then they go up. Stocks the same. An operating company with a solid business model, treading water, may be just the pickup your portfolio needs. A secular move is different. When the wheels come off, when the stock starts to spud in, it doesn't matter to an investor if it's at a 52-week low. You avoid it. One way to spot the difference is to watch when whole industries reach a low. If the industry has prospects, that's a buying opportunity. Right now the list of lows is studded with gold miners. Harmony Gold Mining (HMY), IamGold (IAG) Eldorado Gold (EGO) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU) are all near their lows for the last year. Complete Story » |
| How I Made Over 900% On Natural Gas, And How You Can Do It Posted: 20 Mar 2012 05:23 AM PDT ChartProphet submit: It's time to buy natural gas. Investing in natural gas not only provides big potential upside, but also offers the best hedge against rising oil (OIL, USO) prices and falling gold (GLD) prices. With rampant and extreme pessimism regarding the future of natural gas, and prices at 10-year lows, the downside is limited and opportunity exists to profit as investors begin to once again look to natural gas as the low-cost, abundant and clean energy-alternative. With oil prices soaring from $75 to over $110 in only five months from October 2011 to February 2012, economies and businesses are severely threatened by higher energy prices and inflationary pressures that increase their costs and endangers their profits. Rising energy prices Complete Story » |
| Gold Mining in West Africa Promises Growth: Mark Lackey Posted: 20 Mar 2012 03:10 AM PDT |
| SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside Posted: 20 Mar 2012 03:02 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Silver Should Now Work Towards Below $30.00 Posted: 20 Mar 2012 02:32 AM PDT |
| South African gold production data disappoints again Posted: 20 Mar 2012 02:27 AM PDT Goldmoney |
| When to Acquire Silver, the Metal of Emperors? Posted: 20 Mar 2012 02:16 AM PDT If we throw in the constant devaluation of currencies worldwide then we start to get the picture of why silver prices have moved up from $4.00/oz to $33.00/oz. Silver is a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation similar to its big brother. |
| Seven "five star" dividend stocks you should consider now Posted: 20 Mar 2012 01:27 AM PDT From Dividend Growth Stocks: Performance and sustainability – that's what investors in Dividend Growth Stocks are looking for. It's very easy to find stocks with a yields greater than 10%, but how many of those will be able to sustain or grow their dividend over 10, five, or even three years? Also, it doesn't take much effort to find a company that can sustain and grow its dividend because it is only paying a nominal amount (low yield and low payout). When picking stocks, there is no such thing as a 'sure thing.' All stocks carry risk and uncertainties. However, there are metrics we can look at that help us to reduce our portfolio's risk by selecting high-quality stocks. In search for five-star stocks, here are the metrics I look at... Read full article... More on dividend stocks: The details on Apple's big dividend announcement this morning Unique new service could allow you to receive your stock dividends in physical gold Three dividend growers with an unusual but powerful advantage over the competition |
| Posted: 20 Mar 2012 01:20 AM PDT Mike Maloney chats with Jim Rogers about markets, Bernanke, the East/West Cycle and more. ~TVR |
| Gold Looks Absolutely Terrible Posted: 20 Mar 2012 01:10 AM PDT
Traders see gold (and all precious metals) as vehicles to go long or short depending on the opportunity set, nothing more. Long term investors are a bit more emotionally committed — they have a thesis involving runaway inflation, government corruption and Central Bank themed moral decay (though admittedly some of the value-minded just like the intrinsic value of gold stocks). Those in the third category — what we're tongue in cheek calling the religious category — see gold as not just a trading vehicle, or even a long-term investment, but a form of capitalist religion. For true believers, gold ownership is a sort of transcendental societal salve: A form of redemption and shelter and cure for all our accumulated ills. For these folks, gold is something to hoard and never let go — or at least, not until the armageddon smoke has cleared and an ounce of gold is worth more than the Dow (perhaps crossing around 7,000 or so).
As traders, all we pretty much know is that gold looks absolutely terrible right now (if you are long). First the chart:
And then the fundamental realities:
We are not gold permabears. If anything we have made more on the long side of gold and gold stocks than the short. And if the charts and macro view tell us to buy gold and gold stocks again in future, we certainly will. A trade is a trade. From a trading point of view right NOW, though, precious metals are clearly a sell (if not an outright short). As are gold stocks. (Seen a weekly GDX chart? Woof!) And from an investment point of view, the macro value is dubious (unless you are waiting for a total Europe meltdown, war with Iran, or some other apocalyptic event). Fade the hype, or at least sidestep it. And be wary of the potential retail deluge if small invesetors finally get sick of "Waiting for Godot," I mean Gold. JS  |
| Bullion ‘Not Looking Great’ as India Strike Continues Posted: 20 Mar 2012 12:44 AM PDT Gold bullion prices fell to $1,643 per ounce Tuesday lunchtime in London – 1.0% down on the week so far – as stocks and commodities also fell and US Treasury bonds gained. |
| Battle of Athens, Tennessee, 1946 Posted: 20 Mar 2012 12:36 AM PDT A great, true story of returning veterans from WWII rising up to take back their local government from a tyrannical political machine is dramatized in this short video clip. It is a testament to one reason why our forefathers saw fit to include the Second Amendment to the Constitution. To guard against tyranny by our own government. Never forget that. Worthy of sharing.
Source: YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5ut6yPrObw&feature=player_embedded |
| Embry: Debt Saturation = Higher Gold & Silver Prices Posted: 20 Mar 2012 12:07 AM PDT John Embry's Presentation at the 2012 California Resource Investment Conference in Indian Wells near Palm Springs California. ~TVR |
| Rally Foreseen on US GDP Surprise to Downside Posted: 19 Mar 2012 11:35 PM PDT Gold dropped in Asia this morning and losses continued in Europe where gold is now trading at $1,649.90/oz. The superficially rosy US economic outlook has dimmed gold's safe haven appeal for speculators and some investors. |
| Oil price gains curtailed by Saudi comments Posted: 19 Mar 2012 10:45 PM PDT Silver and palladium were the top performers in the precious metals space again yesterday, with increasing market optimism and rising inflation expectations resulting in another solid day for ... |
| Exposing Silver Mythology, Part III Posted: 19 Mar 2012 10:00 PM PDT Exposing Silver Mythology, Part III February 26th, 2012 • Related • Filed Under Originally posted at http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/in...ary&Itemid=130 In Parts I and II, we were presented with a shocking perspective on the silver market. The principal record-keepers for the silver sector, and the largest single regulator of the silver market both display not only an abysmal level of ignorance concerning the silver market, but the seeming incapacity to even understand basic arithmetic operations. The result of this display of ineptitude is that the mainstream data and analysis which reaches the market from these official and quasi-official sources has absolutely no basis in reality. It is precisely this sort of vacuous nonsense which is relied upon by mainstream silver bears when they spew their negative drivel. And one cannot say the words "negative drivel" in connection with precious metals without immediately thinking of Kitco's Jon Nadler – the man who has gone through a 10+ year bull market for gold without ever once stating that today was a good day to buy it. Apparently his banker biases simply run too deep. Speaking of Nadler's biases, they were clearly on display in a recent hatchet-job on silver by the Globe & Mail which was so shoddy that it didn't even rank as good fiction. First the context: Some market watchers are warning that silver faces a vicious bear market that could eventually take the price to the mid-teens… Well, we know what the silver-hater who wrote this piece thinks about the silver market. What we don't know is what planet he is writing about, because it obviously has nothing to do with the planet Earth. The near-total depletion of inventories, and the imminent default-event which that portends, suggest nothing other than that the upward move in the price of silver has just begun. What clearly identifies this as propaganda, and not even an attempt at journalism is the following passage: …the problem with the bullish case for silver, at least over the near term, is the threat of growing supplies. A key industry figure highlights the problem. According to the trade association the Silver Institute, the average cash costs at silver mines…worked out to a mere $5.27 an ounce in 2010… Note that this sleazy shill talks about "the threat of growing supplies" without being able to muster even the tiniest kernel of data about actual growing supplies. The implication that the current profitability of silver mining will thus flood the market with silver "over the near term" is the precise opposite of reality. 1) Despite a ten-fold increase in the price of silver off of its 600-year low (spread over a 10+ year period) we have seen no more than a 1% to 2% annual increase in silver production throughout that period. This means there is absolutely zero empirical evidence to support the fraudulent assertion of this writer. 2) The approximate time to bring a new mine into production typically falls into the range of 5 – 10 years. Thus the profitability of silver mining today couldn't possibly have a significant impact on silver production until (at least) the middle of this decade. This means that the ridiculous assertion of a surge in supply "over the near term" isn't even theoretically possible. Indeed this piece of rubbish is so utterly opposite with reality that the writer appears to have demonstrated the perfect qualifications to work for the CFTC. Yet we have Nadler of Kitco claiming in the same piece that "Silver has got a cloudy lining." The Globe & Mail hack who wrote this piece has got an excuse: he's just some media drone who didn't know anything about the silver market to start with, and thus was willing to swallow the first "data" that was handed to him. But what's Nadler's excuse? One would think that after 10+ years of always getting it wrong that any professional might actually start to do their homework – and improve their own dismal accuracy rating. Not Nadler. Doing a superb imitation of a "broken record", Nadler spouts the same, tired rhetoric; over and over, year after year. Like that other infamous propaganda dispenser, Jeffrey Christian, Nadler continues to parrot the bankster propaganda that Western central banks have "no interest" in manipulating the gold market, despite confessions from numerous officials who worked for these banks, including officials from the Bank for International Settlements, and the two most-famous Chairmen of the Federal Reserve in the last half-century: Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. All serious precious metals investors are familiar with Alan Greenspans's infamous promise that "…we stand ready to lease gold in ever-increasing quantities", and it can only be interpreted as intent to squash the price of gold – should its soaring price ever sound the warning that the bankers' money-printing atrocities were mushrooming out of control. More recently Paul Volcker acknowledged the bankers' willingness to use gold as a tool to deal with "exchange rate instability", which is saying precisely the same thing, except framed as a bankster euphemism. Just as the precious metals propagandists simply fabricate their own data and "fundamentals" – since the real facts completely contradict their spurious attacks – they are equally willing to flatly deny words and events which have existed in the public domain (in some cases) for decades. The motive for suppressing the price of silver (as with the price of gold) is maddeningly simple and obvious. What has changed since silver was $5/oz and gold was $300/oz? Nothing has changed with the metals. An ounce of gold in the year 2000 is just the same as an ounce of gold in 2012. Obviously the rising prices for these metals can only mean the paper the bankers are printing has been losing value – and rapidly. This is why anyone/everyone who understand the fundamentals of precious metals refer to these metals as "the canary in the coal mine". If prices for precious metals start to rise rapidly, this is a direct warning to us that our banker-paper is rapidly losing value. The banksters' age-old con of stealing-by-dilution is thus exposed to the masses. Yet we have the CFTC in 2004 and bankster front-men like Jon Nadler today insisting that it's "impossible" to see any genuine motive for suppressing the prices of gold and silver. Meanwhile, we have our insane/incompetent/traitor governments trumpeting the news that they are engaging in "competitive devaluation": racing to see which of them can drive their currency (our "money") toward zero the fastest. Why isn't there rioting in the streets? Why haven't all these idiot-traitors been thrown out of office? Because the apathetic sheep who vote for them (up until now) haven't bothered flicking the "on" switch with their brains to process what competitive devaluation really means. But what happens when gold surges above $2000/oz, and silver surges above $50 (as is inevitable as long as competitive devaluation continues)? Will the switches go "on" then? Or will it take $2500 gold and $75 silver? At some point the canary in the coal mine will wake up the masses, and the "marks" will be aware of the con-men's game. And then it all comes to an end. It is a "motive" which is now worth in the $100's of trillions to the bankers and their minions – in the nominal, fantasy-world of the banksters' paper money. The largest financial motive in the history of humanity. It is a simple, obvious, direct function of arithmetic – beyond any possible contradiction. With respect to any individuals who claim to be unable to perceive this obvious motive there are only two possibilities. Fill in the blanks. http://blog.ml-implode.com/2012/02/e...logy-part-iii/ |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, March 20 2012 Posted: 19 Mar 2012 10:00 PM PDT |
| Chinese Gold Imports Will Keep Increasing Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:39 PM PDT Even if China does not become the world's largest gold importer, the inability of Chinese producers to mine enough metal to meet domestic demand will alone be very bullish for the gold price. |
| Gold and Silver in India..the Real Story: Jeff Clark Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver[Before I begin today's column, I'm still getting quite a few reports from readers that they are not receiving this daily column in a timely manner...as some are receiving it in the afternoon...long after it has been posted on the Casey Research website. It's normally posted there by 6:30 a.m. Eastern time...and if you don't want to wait around for the e-mail version, you can click on the home page here...and then bookmark it.] The gold price gained a few dollar in morning trading in the Far East yesterday...but the moment that London opened at 8:00 a.m. British Summer Time...down went the price...with the low of the day coming moments before trading began on the Comex at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. From there, a tiny rally began that gained strength after the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The price went vertical a few minutes before 11:30 a.m...but there was obviously a not-for-profit seller waiting in the wings...and $1,671.10 spot proved to be the high tick of the day. Even the tiniest rally attempt got sold off after that. Gold closed the New York electronic session at $1,663.50 spot...up only $3.40 on the day. Net volume was very light...around 105,000 contracts.
Silver followed pretty much the same price pattern, although it's low of the day came fairly early in London trading...before recovering a bit going into the Comex open in New York. The silver price then followed the same rally pattern as gold did...and it's more than obvious that the $33 spot price level was the line in the sand for JPMorgan et al. Silver's every attempt to breach the price market during the regular Comex session met with heavy resistance...as did the attempt in the New York Access Market around 2:45 p.m. Eastern time. Silver's high tick at 2:45 p.m. was $33.19 spot...and heaven only knows what silver's price might have ended up at yesterday if it hadn't run into 'da boyz' at every turn. The silver price obviously closed well of its high at $32.92 spot...up only 36 cents on the day. Net volume was pretty light at 27,000 contracts.
The dollar index did virtually nothing in Far East and early London trading on Monday. But moments after 10:00 a.m. Eastern time...and once the London p.m. gold fix was done...the index fell off a 40+ basis point cliff. The bulk of the losses were in shortly before 12 o'clock noon in New York...and from there the dollar index moved sideways into the close. It's a pretty good bet that the gold and silver rallies that began shortly after 10:00 a.m. Eastern time had little to do with the London p.m. gold fix...and everything to do with the face-plant in the dollar index. And it's equally obvious that both metals wanted to run higher in price, even though the dollar's fall was done for the day...and that's when the not-for-profit sellers stepped in. During the last three trading days, the dollar index has declined by 130 basis points...and gold has struggled mightily to gain $30 bucks. During the three days prior to that, the gold price had no trouble plunging about $85 dollars when the dollar index rose by the same amount.
The gold stocks peaked just about the same time as the gold price did...and then slowly got sold off, with the HUI finishing down 0.57% on the day. This is the third day in a row that gold has finished higher and their associated equities finished down on the day. It's no stretch for me to think that someone is selling into this rally to keep a lid on prices. The HUI is now down seven days in a row. But it's also possible that someone is selling into this tiny rally for other reasons, so I'll leave it up to you to pick which scenario you believe to be true.
Even though the silver price is up over a dollar off its lows of last week, the stocks continued to get sold off as well. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was down again yesterday as well, shedding a smallish 0.26%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 20 gold, along with 60 silver contracts, were posted for delivery tomorrow. Once again in silver it was Jefferies as the big short/issuer with all 60 contracts to be delivered by them. The big long/stoppers were JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Monday. The U.S. Mint had another small sales report. They sold 2,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 215,000 silver eagles. On Friday, the Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 906,875 troy ounces of silver...and for the first time in a while, some of it ended up in JPMorgan's warehouse...a total of 589,020 ounces to be exact. The link to Friday's activity is here. Here are three free paragraphs from silver analyst Ted Butler's Weekly Review to his paying subscribers... "In silver, there was a scant reduction of less than 200 contracts in the total commercial net short position, bringing that total position to 35,700 contracts. It's almost not worth breaking down the category change, as they were also in the hundreds and not thousands of contracts change. The main reason for the lack of big change in the silver COT was because prices were remarkably subdued during the reporting week, trading and finishing higher, not lower in price. However, as a result of Wednesday's deliberate and high volume sell-off, I would guess the total commercial net short position declined by 5,000 contracts or more." "The big COMEX silver short, JPMorgan, still holds at least 22,000 contracts net short. This is almost 5 times larger than the proposed position limit according to the formula used by the CFTC. There is no other such mismatch between the proposed level of position limits in any other commodity and the actual positions that are currently held. No wonder there is such stiff legal opposition by JPMorgan to any type of positions limits. I'll let you in on a dirty little secret. The securities industry (read JPMorgan) is not really opposed to position limits for commodities in general; they are only opposed to position limits in silver. It's just that the weasels will never admit that openly." "After removing all the spread transactions listed in the disaggregated COT report, JPMorgan's share of the total net COMEX open interest is still over 26% of the entire market. That level of concentration, in and of itself, is manipulative to the price of silver. I know I'm preaching to the choir here in repeating this fact, but it is still widely unknown away from here. As this fact becomes more widely known, I believe it will take on greater investor interest and regulatory response. That's the trouble with facts and truth; they can get very stubborn for those trying to subvert and obfuscate." Here's an interesting chart that 'David in California' sent to me on the weekend. One has to wonder why bankers are jumping ship in record numbers. I'm sure some of its through lay-offs, but it certainly isn't all of them.
(Click on image to enlarge) Here's a chart that reader David Schonbrunn sent me over the weekend. He also sent me a Barron's article headlined "Bond Yields Break Out to the Upside". It's 'subscriber protected'...so the chart will have to do. But, as they say, "a picture is worth a thousand words."
Today's last chart is courtesy of reader Phil Barlett...and needs little explanation from me. As you can see, gold needs to be massively re-priced to keep up with the M1, 2 and 3 money supplies. But that's why the precious metals prices are being managed, just so they won't show that.
(Click on image to enlarge) Well, reader Scott Plushau is still bearish on the dollar...and so am I, actually. You can read all about it in his blog...which is headlined "COT Report in Dollar is Still Bearish". It's well worth reading in my opinion..and the link is here. I have an embarrassingly large number of stories today...and in circumstances such as these, I'm always delighted to turn the final edit over to you. It beats me as to what might happen during the rest of Tuesday's trading day...but it certainly hasn't started out on a positive note. Court overturns order to slash Dutch pension fund's gold allocation. Central banks pounce on falling gold, buying it through BIS. Rick Rule: Oil Super-spike will take gold and silver higher. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeHussman: The Market Looks Exactly Like It Did Before The Last CrashIn his latest weekly note, fund manager John Hussman is... bearish on the market. This has been his stance for a couple years now, and this week he looks at a technical indicator showing signs of excessive optimism: "As of Friday, the S&P 500 was within 1% of its upper Bollinger band at virtually every horizon, including daily, weekly and monthly bands. The last time the S&P 500 reached a similar extreme was Friday April 29, 2011, when I titled the following Monday's comment Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes . I observed when the market has previously been overbought to this extent, coupled with more general features of an "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome", the average outcome has been particularly hostile." This short businessinsider.com article was posted over on their website early yesterday morning...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link to this must read is here. Reader U.D. sent me the entire Hussman weekly note...and I'd say it's worth the read as well. But it's a very long read...and the link is here.  Class Dunce Passes Fed's Stress Test Without a Sweat: Jonathan WeilThe most important thing to understand about the Federal Reserve's latest stress tests is what they were not intended to do. Their purpose wasn't to test whether the nation's biggest banks could survive a financial blowup like that of 2008 without government assistance. Rather, the Fed designed its tests to measure the effects a hypothetical crisis would have on banks' regulatory capital. Capital is the financial cushion a company has available to absorb future losses. While the Fed would like for us to believe that regulatory capital is the same thing, it's quite different. And too often it bears little resemblance to reality. That's why the results of the Fed's "comprehensive capital analysis" are more about public relations and manufacturing confidence than they are about disseminating reliable information on banks' health. Bloomberg reporter Jonathan Weil takes no prisoners in this op-ed piece from last Thursday. It was originally headlined "Stress tests pass Fed's flim-flam standard"...and that pretty much sums it up. It's certainly worth your time...and I stole it from yesterday's King Report. The link is here.  Banks Buy Treasuries at Seven Times Pace in 2011U.S. banks bought more government and related debt in the first two months of 2012 than they did in all of last year, an endorsement of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's assessment of the economy that's boosting demand for bonds even with yields near the lowest on record. Commercial lenders purchased $78.2 billion of Treasuries and securities of agencies in January and February, compared with $62.6 billion in all of 2011, bringing their holdings to $1.78 trillion, Fed data show. Deposits exceeded loans by a record $1.63 trillion last month, up from $1.17 trillion in January 2011, providing scope to buy more bonds. The Fed's low-rate policy "has been a plan to buy time for the banks to take free money and invest it, and make some kind of spread, and work their way out of the hole they were in," said Mark MacQueen, a partner and money manager in Austin, Texas, at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $10 billion, in a telephone interview on March 6. "Banks are trying to clean up and improve the appearance of their balance sheets and buying Treasuries accomplishes this." Yep, the last paragraph pretty much says it all. Borrow from the Fed at zero percent...and buy treasuries yielding something higher than zero. The result is that the money the banks borrowed out of thin air, makes 'out of thin air' interest as well and...voilà, instant recapitalization! Too bad we can't get away with that. I thank Casey Research's own Chris Wood for passing this around yesterday...and the link to this Bloomberg story is here.  Former Merrill Worker: Greg Smith Was Right...and it's Not Just GoldmanYes, firms like Goldman have always run very profitable principal trading operations, buying stocks and bonds for their own accounts and reselling them to either other brokers or to their own clients. By definition, any time you run a principal trading operation you're on the other side of trades with clients. These trading operations have generated huge profits for the likes of Goldman. But it needs to be recognized that these firms' trading operations also provide the marketplace with much needed liquidity by putting huge amounts of their own capital at risk. Customers trade with these firms because they understand that providing liquidity adds value. However, in recent years, advances in technology and regulatory changes ushered in the era of virtual stock exchanges, decimalization, and trade through rules, and the entire game changed. Just look at the floor of the New York Stock Exchange – the place is empty. These firms were forced to reinvent themselves. So the Goldmans of the world turned to derivatives, structured products and synthetic securities. These highly illiquid securities are literally created out of thin air. At Merrill Lynch, where I worked for many years in equity sales, we were suddenly expected to sell CDO equity, the illiquid highly leveraged toxic leftovers of the Collateralized Debt Obligation creation process. We were told that if we expected to get paid, we had to sell these "high margin" products, regardless of the fact that selling CDO equity was akin to selling your accounts financial poison. We were constantly reminded that Goldman was doing it, and that was why their ROE was so much better than Merrill's. This story was posted over at the businessinsider.com website on Saturday...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day. The link is here.  Barriers to Change, From Wall St. and Geneva: Gretchen MorgensonMr. Smith's Op-Ed article — and the resounding response to it — provide yet another reminder of why it is crucial that we remake our financial markets so that they are safe for investors and taxpayers. And yet, the snail's-pace progress of this effort is worrisome. Financial institutions, eager to maintain their profitable status quo, have lobbied hard against change. As a result, too-big-to-fail institutions have become even bigger and more powerful. In addition to lobbying, big financial players have another potential weapon in their battle against safety and soundness. This one is more hidden from view and comes from, of all places, the World Trade Organization in Geneva. This story appeared in The New York Times on Saturday...and is a must read. I thank Phil Barlett for sending it along...and the link is here.  U.S. has launched economic nuclear war, Jim Sinclair tells Ellis Martin Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT  Interviewed on Sunday by financial broadcaster Ellis Martin, trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair remarked that gold recently was knocked down to distract from the Greek bond default, that he sees no significant downside risk to investing in gold at the moment, that there is a huge movement away from the U.S. dollar as a trade settlement currency, that the United States is waging economic nuclear war against Iran and threatening to do the same against India, that the United States is likely to suffer similar counterattack against its own vulnerabilities, and a lot more. |
| Alasdair Macleod: Eurozone banks and contagion risk Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT  Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, writing at GoldMoney, predicts that not just the debt of the marginal European Union nations but all government debt will soon be impugned by Greece's bond default. This is another story I borrowed from a GATA release. Macleod's commentary is headlined "Eurozone Banks and Contagion Risk" and it's posted at the GoldMoney.com website. The link is here. |
| Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT  The concept of financial repression has been on the edge of investors' minds for a while. It ought to move to the centre, for it is becoming a reality. In essence, the process involves governments using their muscle to force down the real value of their debt. It can take many forms, but they boil down to two. As Chris Powell said in his introduction..."Maybe in another 10 or 20 years news organizations like the Financial Times will try to interview central bankers about the specific mechanisms of "financial repression," including intervention in the gold market." |
| What's really happening with gold and silver in India: Jeff Clark, Casey Research Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT  Why should we care about the gold market in India? Well, let's face it; the nation is one of the biggest consumers of the metal, a major driver that can give us hints about demand and investment trends, along with what to perhaps eventually expect here in North America. But reading third-party reports about India is very different than getting information firsthand from a credible source in the country. I wanted to get to the bottom of what's really going on in India by talking to a reputable bullion dealer who could give me the inside scoop, an up-to-the-moment dispatch from the front lines, as it were. So I did just that. |
| Posted: 19 Mar 2012 09:26 PM PDT  The first one is from James Turk...and is entitled "Physical demand for precious metals cuts short-sellers off". The second one is headlined "Gold off-take far greater than suggested in press, London trader tells KWN". And lastly, here's a Rick Rule blog that states "Oil Super-spike wi |
| Sinclair: The Nuclear Economic Trigger Posted: 19 Mar 2012 08:53 PM PDT In this week's interview with Ellis Martin, noted analyst and gold guru James Sinclair outlines not a scenario but a reality that is here now. The US has pulled the nuclear economic trigger on India and Japan in the interest of coercing them to cease trading for oil with Iran. The gun is actually pointed at ourselves. Listen and hear why the dollar is ultimately doomed as these countries now look to the Yuan and Euro as a trading tool instead of the dollar. That's India and Japan…Russia….China…..Europe….etc. ~TVR |
| Silver Update: “LEAPE2020″ Posted: 19 Mar 2012 08:47 PM PDT from BrotherJohnF: BJF discusses the Leap 2020 report and examines best deals to stack, in the 3.19.12 Silver Got Physical ? ~TVR |
| Posted: 19 Mar 2012 08:45 PM PDT A rally and correction were expected. See comments an the data as of closing on March 15th. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 13252.76 +58.66 on 124% of normal volume as stocks had a rally on specious news. The PMO momentum was sinking but has leveled off, and crossed over to rise in a new rally. We did forecast and expect this rally and it has now transpired. It was truly man-made in every respect as the fundamentals and technicals had been signaling a correction was due. Tomorrow on Friday, the central bankers, politicians and authorities will sign the next Greek debt extension and all will congratulate themselves. This kicks the can for another few weeks-months and might even take the upside to and beyond the November 6 election in the USA. New support is 13250 and resistance is 13500. Expect more manufactured buying on Friday and Monday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1402.60 +8.32 on 120% of volume, rising momentum and a price pushing against the upper inside of the trading channel. Price is above moving all averages just like the DJIA. New support and resistance is I 400. We fully expect this index to rise higher for probably all of Friday and Monday. Tuesday is a normal correction day with bonds up and stocks down but only mildly. Expect more positive trading on the upside. Much of the buying is expected to be driven by positive news on the Greek bailout in Europe from the ECB in Brussels. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 637.31 +3.45 on abnormally high volume and rising momentum. Support is 635 and resistance is 640. We are seeing a technical pause as price strains to punch through the upper trading range channel. Price is far above all moving averages. Normally, this index will guardedly follow the S&P's as it requires buying in larger volumes with big company shares. We do not expect any massive trading or buying but do expect this index to touch and hold on mildly higher numbers over the next two trading days. There is a chance for 650 next week but that is a stretch to expect. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2714.79 +6.38 on normal volume and slightly peaking-up momentum. While this index is rising, the pattern is one of acting toppy and weak showing small vertical price bars on the open and close. Since this is the leading indicator, watch this action very closely on Friday for trend hints and any signs of a stall in price. Support is 2700 and resistance is 2715. It appears we have two more up waves for Friday and Monday but they are not guaranteed with a large price gap up that must be filled, which occurred earlier in the week. Tepid buying for the next two days unless there is a very strong, immeasurable response from Brussels when they approve and sign the Greek loans. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 136.53 -0.09 as the bond price finally collapsed on higher yield and falling momentum. Price slipped under major support at 137.50. Price is now under all moving averages, which is bearish. New resistance is the 200-day moving average at 137.56. New and lower support should be found next Tuesday at 135.00. Watch for further bond selling on Friday and Monday with some supporting stabilization next Tuesday at 135.00, plus or minus a few ticks. XAU: Closed at 177.68 +0.45 on falling momentum and a falling metal to shares ratio. As negative as this is, the chart has now based at 175.00 as we did predict. It make take 1-2 days to fully support and turn around but it now appears the XAU can finally rise higher on new rallies in gold and silver and the broader stock markets. The price remains under all moving averages but we can see it rising to at least 187 or higher within the next month or so. Faster traders should watch the metal to shares ratio very carefully for hints of this next rally that could begin next week. Gold: Closed at 1658.90 +16.70 on falling momentum. The US Dollar touched 81.00 and change today and then sold off giving gold some buying power. The 200-day moving average for gold is 1650 and that is exactly where it supported today. In after hours trading, June futures are near 1660 and flat, and slightly in the red. We have just completed a full five waves down in correction. Technically, the next move can go anywhere in three directions; up, down or sideways. We now expect a new gold rally with the dollar selling mildly lower on a rising Euro for Friday and Monday. This presumes the Euro-land agreements are signed supporting the Euro Currency. Support is the 200-day average at 1650 and resistance is 1665. Our next spring objective is 1807 over the next six weeks cycle. Silver: Closed at 32.49 +0.35 after falling closely beneath all three moving averages at 33.00 and change. That is very formidable resistance and it is close by; just above today's closing price. Silver oversold on the lower side, more than gold. While support is strong, momentum continues to fall and sell. We are back where we were a few days ago with the price having to breakout up and through five hard resistance levels to come up and out of $34.48. Silver can trade very fast in both directions but it is going to take some power to surpass these resistance points. Silver is in buy mode coming off stronger support. However, the initial moves will be guarded and gradual. Expect soft upside buying moves over the next few days until silver is higher than $34.50. US Dollar: Closed at 80.20 after touching above 81.00 on the futures index. Momentum remains up but the dollar has peaked and closed in the lower 1/3rd of the price bar signaling selling on Friday and Monday as the Euro currency rises on good news from Brussels. Support and resistance are both on 80.00, a very strong many years long number for the dollar index. The chart pattern is a very sloppy and wide head and shoulders. The newly formed right shoulder is so far over, we probably should not even call the pattern. We think the Euro-land relief can last a few weeks producing a rising Euro and falling dollar. Look for the US Dollar to sell back to the 200-day moving average at 78.19. Crude Oil: Closed at 105.11 on turning down momentum. Support is 105 and resistance is 106. There were rumors in the trading pits today that the U.K.'s Cameron and Obama would be releasing oil reserves from the Strategic Oil Reserves to drive down the prices for elections. They are just rumors, but you never know and true, or untrue the price of crude oil was suppressed in trading. In after hours trading on the May futures, oil is up slightly at 106.03 at +$.38. The 20-day average is resistance at 105.50. The 50 and 200 day prices are behind today's close. Technically and cyclically we are in a spring bull market, but other factors as we have mentioned are holding the prices back. Expect some flat pricing for Friday with a mild up tick on Monday. CRB: Closed at 315.90 +0.73 on mildly falling momentum. The chart produced two wide-ranging bull signals. The PMO momentum had a bull inverted head and shoulders pattern covering several months. The price had a bull double bottom in October and December. The price since those dates has gone up and moved to 325, or so above all moving averages. Today the price is under all the moving averages, but just one point under the 50-day average. What we are seeing today is a pausing, corrective rally with the price stuck in the middle of several moving averages and producing a larger continuation triangle. Watch for a spring breakout rally, probably next week.         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Europe’s QE3 Will Boost Gold & Silver Posted: 19 Mar 2012 08:27 PM PDT Gold and silver which has in the past represented risk off is still in consolidation mode. Eventually investors will realize that the monetary metals can do well in both a deflationary risk off environment as well as an inflationary risk on environment. |
There are three mentalities for those with an interest in gold:
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