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- Respectfully Disagreeing With Warren Buffett's Recent Views On Gold
- Recent Performance Review Of 7 Canadian Oil & Gas Equities Traded In The U.S.
- Analyzing Noteworthy Insider Buys And Sells In Technology On Wednesday, Thursday
- Will Gold be Paulson's Next 'Greatest Trade Ever?'
- Follow The Money: Silver ETF Fund Flows Up Sharply
- 4 Networking Companies That Are Poised To Move
- Bob Chapman - Gold Radio Cafe - February 24, 2012
- The Coming Storm
- General Motors And Peugeot Discuss 'Sharing'
- Despite Obvious Signs of Recovery, Inflation Marches On
- Updating the Silver Market at Resistance
- Gold Bullion or Cash Shows Buffett, Roubini, Krugman Mistaken…
- The Largest Gold-Accumulation Plan of All Time
- At The Movies
- Gold and silver prices benefiting from liquidity flood
- Milton Friedman on Limited Government
- Silver Price Forecast: Silver Market Update
- Goldline agrees to refund up to $4.5 million to former customers
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 02/24/12
- Gold Juncture: Short- & Long-Term Meet in Rising Prices
- John Embry: The Public Won't Notice Gold Again Until Another Record High is Set
- Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling
- Argentine advice for Greece: ‘Default Now!’
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, February 24 2012
- LISTEN: Andy Hoffman: $1,000 – $4,000 Silver
- Silver Update: “Holding The Bag”
- Spinning Necessity as a Virtue: Families to Stand in for Fragmenting Social Safety Nets
- The Long-Term Fundamental Case for Gold
- Gold, Silver Juniors Should Shine in 2012: Mark Raguz
- Gold Stocks Nearing End of Wall of Worry Stage
| Respectfully Disagreeing With Warren Buffett's Recent Views On Gold Posted: 24 Feb 2012 08:56 AM PST By: Roy Sebag, Founder and CEO of Natural Resource Holdings, Ltd., Feb 17, 2012 After getting a sneak peek at Buffett's Annual Letter, I decided to write this essay as it is my humble o |
| Recent Performance Review Of 7 Canadian Oil & Gas Equities Traded In The U.S. Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:59 AM PST By Zvi Bar: Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil and gas to the United States, and also one of its closest allies, literally and figuratively. In 2011, some Canadian petroleum companies appreciated in the double digits, while others depreciated at a comparable rate. Many Canadian petroleum plays also provided above-average dividends, compared to the broader market. Canadian-based companies pay their dividends in Canadian currency, and are largely natural resource-backed. The Canadian dollar weakened versus the U.S. dollar during the second half of 2011 due to price reductions for various commodities such as gold and oil, and dollar strength due to European sovereign concerns. Below is a recent performance table for seven Canadian oil & gas equities that trade within the United States (listed in alphabetical order): Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE), Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE), Enbridge Inc. (ENB), Enerplus Corporation (ERF), Pengrowth Energy Corporation (PGH), Provident Energy Ltd. (PVX), and Penn West Complete Story » |
| Analyzing Noteworthy Insider Buys And Sells In Technology On Wednesday, Thursday Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:52 AM PST By Ganaxi Small Cap Movers: We present here two noteworthy buys and nine noteworthy sells from Wednesday and Thursday's SEC Form 4 (insider trading) filings in the technology sector, as part of our daily and weekly coverage of insider trades. These were selected by a review of over 790 separate transactions in over 450 different companies filed by insiders on Wednesday and Thursday, and an additional 200 or so filings so far today. The filings are noteworthy based on the dollar amount sold, the number of insiders buying or selling, and based on whether the overall buying or selling represents a strong pick-up based on historical buying and selling in the stock (for more info on how to interpret insider trades, please refer to the end of this article): Riverbed Technology Inc. (RVBD): RVBD provides products and services that improve applications and accessibility of data over wide area networks (WANs). Its WAN optimization solutions liberate Complete Story » |
| Will Gold be Paulson's Next 'Greatest Trade Ever?' Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:50 AM PST When famed hedge-fund manager John Paulson speaks, people listen. And it's no wonder. Paulson made his way into the financial history books thanks to what many now call the "greatest trade ever". |
| Follow The Money: Silver ETF Fund Flows Up Sharply Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:23 AM PST By Richard Bloch: Money is certainly flowing into precious metals ETFs. I took a look at fund flow data provided by XTF.com for three of these funds, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Here's a comparison of money flowing into each of these funds, showing year-to-date fund flows against the one-year total (going back to February 2011). GLD and IAU together have seen inflows of more than $2 billion against a total of about $7 billion for the entire year. So investors are certainly picking up the pace in putting money into these gold funds. But what's really interesting is that SLV has seen net inflows of $119 million year-to-date. That seems like a pittance, but it certainly beats the $1.2 billion that came out of the fund over the full year. Here's a closer view of the trend. This chart shows the exponential Complete Story » |
| 4 Networking Companies That Are Poised To Move Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:17 AM PST By Cameron Kaine: In part one of this article, we discussed the importance of networking companies - namely Hewlett Packard (HPQ), F5 (FFIV) and Juniper Networks (JNPR). The premise of the article involves the return of technology spending and where large corporations are most likely to spend their money. The first obvious choices are on the companies that specialize in managing data traffic - essentially the lifeblood of most operations. Here are four more to consider. Cisco (CSCO) For quite some time now, Cisco has been considered the gold standard among that group. However there is reason to suspect that the competition for that title is no longer a foregone conclusion. However, I am inclined to look at the entire sector to start to appreciate a little bit more of what each company has to offer in their own right. In its most recent quarter which ended January 28, Cisco reported net income Complete Story » |
| Bob Chapman - Gold Radio Cafe - February 24, 2012 Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:13 AM PST Bob Chapman - Gold Radio Cafe - February 24, 2012 : the gold and silver... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my blog http://www.bobchapman.blogspot.com for the full Story ]] This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 24 Feb 2012 05:55 AM PST
Slow Burn Awakening Crises Carry an Umbrella
Reestablishing Value Tomorrow ~MV |
| General Motors And Peugeot Discuss 'Sharing' Posted: 24 Feb 2012 05:52 AM PST By David Silver: General Motors (GM) is really searching for a way to fix its European operations and get more competitive in the compact car division. This week it was confirmed by the French Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand that General Motors and PSA Peugeot Citroën are in discussions for a potential alliance. The Cruize in the United States has been a good hit (it is light years ahead of the Cobalt and Cavalier), and has helped stabilize General Motors' market share in the United States. However, General Motors is hemorrhaging money in Europe, and aligning itself with the second largest (by volume) automaker in Europe, PSA Peugeot Citroën, behind Volkswagen, seems like a good place to start. The rumors circulating are not for a full-fledged merger or acquisition, but more of a sharing of sorts. It is similar to the deal announced by Ford (F) and Toyota (TM) where both companies would share Complete Story » |
| Despite Obvious Signs of Recovery, Inflation Marches On Posted: 24 Feb 2012 05:49 AM PST Despite obvious signs of economic recovery, including the brisk demand for 'big ticket' machine tools as noted on the blog yesterday, seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims improving, a constructive Silver-Gold Ratio (SGR, chart below), implying improving general market liquidity with SGR's proximity to major support that NFTRH has been following for the last couple of months; despite these positive signs Ben Bernanke and the US Fed hold resolutely to a cautious view of the US economy. As part of this resolution, they have committed to hold rates near zero until late 2014. Huh? What gives? Will this not create inflation?  One might be confused by this easy policy if one believes that organic economic cycles are anything more than a distant memory. As credit and leverage related abuses began to be hard wired into the system at the end of the 20 year secular bull market in 2000, the age of 'Inflation onDemand' began. Inflationary monetary gimmicks of epic proportions are now employed the world over in order to micro manage economies through ever more desperate policy. Evidently, bear markets have been made illegal in favor of a secular inflationary 'asset grab'; now over a decade old and subject to periodic 'deflationary' meltdowns. What NFTRH and indeed this blog have been calling i2k12 (inflationary 2012) is not to be celebrated. It is something to be speculated upon and thankful for if you are on the right side of it. But when it begins to ramp down (my guess is sometime post-US election) and ultimately resolve in another meltdown, it will be time to once again to give Prechter (along with the entire cadre of lesser 'dBoys') his due once again. Presenting again the absolute, number one most important chart in the financial world. The monthly view (AKA the 'Continuum' here in Biiwii land) of the 30 year Treasury yield is a general road map. Within this chart's generalities, we must dial in shorter term analysis for ongoing market management. But in the big picture we are able to lock on to a view that allows us to keep perspective and balance as the cycles play out. These cycles ping between inflationary and deflationary and grind up the best of 'em, like Bill Gross and his T bond short play early last year (most recent red arrow).  It is a sad irony in the financial markets that the deflationists and bears tend to look like heroes at the exact moment they should be shunned (green arrows) and goats when they should be heeded (red arrows), for an intermediate down cycle at least. Human beings by their nature are social beings and they tend to look to each other for guidance, comfort and inspiration. This is such a nice quality in life, but it will kill you in the financial markets. Man needs tools… so he will not out think himself! The bottom line that we are leading up to is this; if the yellow shaded area on the chart above holds – and shorter time frame charts of TYX hint that it will – then there is a lot of room left in i2k12 for bears to get out of the line of fire. The interim cycles tend to ping the boundaries and if 2012 unfolds the way I expect, the time to once again shift out of asset markets will not be until a red arrow appears once again at the monthly EMA 100. Meanwhile, I have been expecting an interim (and routine) correction, which thus far has not visited. Bears might take note and at least consider using the next correction to get right with the market gods. Another point to consider is that with the debt and leverage hard wired in to the system (Bernanke is no idiot), a bubble in precious metals is not only technically possible, but could be desirable for global policy makers looking to re-liquefy the monetary system. Or maybe they want a more generalized asset grab, making the rich (asset owners) richer and the poor well, more marginalized and more dependent. This would of course have profound implications on near future tax policy. There is so much more to write about here in Wonderland (the alternate world constructed where relatively normal financial markets once stood), but once again a post that was meant to be succinct got a little out of hand. Luckily, there will be plenty of time to paint in the details going forward. If you would like to join me in what has been a very successful journey so far, consider a subscription to NFTRH. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
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| Updating the Silver Market at Resistance Posted: 24 Feb 2012 04:15 AM PST What silver will do at these resistance areas is a short-term problem. From a longer point of view, it is clear to me that silver is going much higher. Eventually, it will successfully break out of the big flag and spike upwards past the $50 level. |
| Gold Bullion or Cash Shows Buffett, Roubini, Krugman Mistaken… Posted: 24 Feb 2012 03:01 AM PST |
| The Largest Gold-Accumulation Plan of All Time Posted: 24 Feb 2012 02:27 AM PST For more than 30 years China has been selling more goods than it has imported, that's allowed the nation to stockpile trillions of dollars. |
| Posted: 24 Feb 2012 01:11 AM PST Gold prices remained near three-month highs around $1,780 overnight and early this morning as a similarly-sounding achievement was also noted in its most recent tandem trading partner-the euro. The common currency hovered near ten-week highs above $1.34 despite an EU projection of a recession. |
| Gold and silver prices benefiting from liquidity flood Posted: 24 Feb 2012 01:00 AM PST For the first time in three years the slowdown in the eurozone is negatively affecting trade with important Asian exporters such as Japan, China, South Korea and Thailand. Owing to last year's floods, ... |
| Milton Friedman on Limited Government Posted: 24 Feb 2012 12:34 AM PST Originally from a PBS TV program called Open Mind hosted by Richard Heffner of Rutgers University, this black and white video tape interview with Milton Friedman is one of the best interviews we have seen of the Nobel Prize winning economist. Topics of discussion include the minimum wage, trade unions, Social Security, the welfare state, government waste of public funds, rent control in New York, housing subsidies, causes of the Great Depression, the rise of socialist and collectivist thinking and what it takes for a people to become and remain free.The grainy early video tape is of less than perfect quality, but well worth that minor distraction. We deem it worthy of sharing.
Source: Google Videos |
| Silver Price Forecast: Silver Market Update Posted: 24 Feb 2012 12:11 AM PST Silver Price Forecast: Silver Market Update Silver is currently trading at key resistance levels. See below, a six-year silver chart (all charts generated at fxstreet.com): On the chart, I have drawn a significant upward sloping resistance line (red line). Silver has now reached that line, trying to breach it and stay above it. It [...]  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Goldline agrees to refund up to $4.5 million to former customers Posted: 23 Feb 2012 11:58 PM PST Goldline agrees to refund up to $4.5 million to former customers Feb. 22, 2012, 9:07 p.m. EST McClatchy/Tribune - MCT Information Services LOS ANGELES _ Santa Monica, Calif., precious metals dealer Goldline International Inc., one of the nation's largest gold retailers, has resolved a criminal prosecution by agreeing to refund as much as $4.5 million to former customers. Goldline agreed to an injunction that requires the company to "change its unfair sales practices" and to disclose price markups in recorded telephone conversations with customers, said Adam Radinsky, head of the Santa Monica city attorney's consumer protection unit. The Santa Monica city attorney in November filed a 19-count criminal complaint against Goldline, accusing the company of running a "bait and switch" operation in which customers seeking to invest in gold bullion were instead sold gold coins that were marked up more than 50 percent. Six current and former employees were also charged. The settlement, approved Wednesday by Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Lisa Hart Cole, resolved a consumer-protection lawsuit that the Santa Monica city attorney's office filed against Goldline this month. As part of the agreement, the city attorney dismissed all of the criminal charges. Goldline, which has used radio talk show host Glenn Beck as a pitchman, issued a statement that said the agreement would help the company "enhance its industry-leading disclosures to prospective precious metals buyers." Radinsky said the settlement of the civil lawsuit "has tremendous benefits for consumers." The agreement calls for a third party to monitor the injunction and make sure the company is disclosing the markups, through undercover buys, recorded telephone calls and meetings with employees. "The company is being forced to change its entire business model from one based on misrepresentations to one providing accurate information, including price markups for each transaction," Radinsky said. "There are extreme benefits to consumers from the injunction in the civil case." http://www.syracuse.com/newsflash/in...13e272368fbc41 |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 02/24/12 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 11:39 PM PST Dow looking at 13,000 again, it soon may look at it from the rear view mirror, Japan's market at 7 month high, Europe still has strong tone. Free money generates risk on trade. from past experience, this will not end well. But if we are in the beginnings of the inflationary cycle, it could easily run 1-2 years. Hard assets will continue higher and then have a surge phase. Remedy, raise rates. Not likely in a meaningful way for a year or so. Traders entered market once silver broke 200 day moving average yesterday and quickly added another .75 to the price. Gold paused but is still solidly above resistance. No bad unemployment numbers or headline news from Europe and the metals should continue to be well bid. |
| Gold Juncture: Short- & Long-Term Meet in Rising Prices Posted: 23 Feb 2012 09:31 PM PST With the Greek drama taking an intermission and the euro strengthening at the US dollar's expense, it looks like gold wants to move higher – and has enough momentum to break through strong technical overhead resistance as we approach and possibly exceed $1,800 an ounce. |
| John Embry: The Public Won't Notice Gold Again Until Another Record High is Set Posted: 23 Feb 2012 09:17 PM PST Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold didn't do a lot in Far East trading...and it briefly touched the $1,780 spot level about two hours after the London open...but fell back to unchanged from Wednesday's New York close by 1:00 p.m. GMT, which was 20 minutes before Comex trading began yesterday morning. From about 8:05 to 8:55 a.m. Eastern, the gold price rose about nine bucks...and then got sold off about eleven bucks by 9:45 a.m....which was probably an early London p.m. gold fix. The subsequent rally lasted until a few minutes before 11:00 a.m. Eastern time...which was also minutes before the 4:00 p.m. London close. From there, the gold price basically traded sideways until 2:40 p.m. in the New York Access Market. Then a not-for-profit seller came along and peeled about nine dollars off the price in minutes. From that short, sharp sell off...the gold price recovered a few dollars into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. The high tick of the day...$1,789.10 spot...came about 12:45 p.m. during the New York lunch hour. The gold price closed at $1,780.10 spot...up $4.30 on the day. Net volume was in the 139,000 contract range, which is still a pretty chunky number, but down substantially from Tuesday and Wednesday's volume figures.
Silver didn't do much either in the early going...and was only up about a dime by the time that London opened. Then the price popped above the $34.50 mark and flat-lined until 8:05 a.m. New York time. From there, silver was pretty much off to the races...except for the slight dip at 9:45 a.m....the same time as gold. Silver's rally came to an end at 2:45 p.m. Eastern time in electronic trading, as the same thoughtful seller that took about nine bucks off the gold price, took the time sell silver off about two bits as well. From that sell off, silver traded flat into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York. Silver closed at $35.37 spot...up $1.11 on the day. Gross volume on Thursday [102,616 contracts] was even higher that it was on Wednesday...and net volume was a very large 43,000 contracts.
Just as a point of interest...the not-for-profit seller that showed up in gold and silver at 2:45 p.m on Wednesday, did not put in an appearance in the platinum and palladium markets yesterday. The other thing worth noting is that, despite the dollar antics I mention in the next paragraph, both platinum and palladium did absolutely nothing yesterday...and both closed down a hair on the day. The dollar index opened around 79.20 on Wednesday night and within a few hours was rolling over and heading south at a goodly clip. Then the dollar rallied 30 basis points over a 5-hour period between 9:30 a.m. in London...and 9:40 a.m. in New York, with the top of that rally coinciding almost exactly with the low in gold and silver prices in New York. From that point, the dollar index resumed its plunge...hitting its nadir at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. By the time the market closed, the dollar index had shed about 55 basis points, closing around 78.65. Well, dear reader, except around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, if you can find any solid co-relation between the moves in the dollar index and the precious metals yesterday, I'd love to hear from you.
The low in the gold stocks came fifteen minutes after the markets opened yesterday morning, which corresponded exactly with the lows of the day in both metals. By 11:30 a.m...all the gains were in for the day...and the appearance of the not-for-profit seller in both metals at 2:45 p.m. is also very obvious on this chart. The HUI finished up only 0.64% on the day when all was said and done.
Considering the big move in silver, most of the large cap silver stocks didn't do all that well...and a lot of the juniors certainly out-performed their larger cousins. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index only gained 1.52%...which was barely higher than its Wednesday gain when silver actually close down 9 cents on the day.
(Click on image to enlarge) It was another quiet Daily Delivery Report from the CME yesterday, as only 95 gold contracts were posted for delivery...along with 70 copper contracts...and zero silver contracts. This was not really a big surprise, as February is not a traditional delivery month for either gold or silver, and we're only days away from month end...and most contracts were delivered early in the month But the drama in silver continues unabated...and the pressure got ramped up a bit more with Thursday's preliminary volume report from the CME. Another 50 silver contracts were added to the February delivery month, bringing the number of silver contracts still open in February up to 175 in total. 175 contracts is 875,000 troy ounce of silver. Where is the short/issuer [Jefferies?] going to get it from on such short notice...and how much will it cost them? Or maybe they already have it...and are just posting the delivery notice now. There are only three business days left to do whatever they're going to do...and you can bet your last nickel that contracts added this late in the month are for physical delivery of the metal itself. As I said yesterday...stay tuned for further details. The GLD ETF reported that an authorized participant added 38,871 troy ounces of gold yesterday...and over at the SLV ETF a very large 1,991,784 ounce of silver was deposited. That's one full day of world silver production...and after yesterday's big price gain, I'm sure that this particular silver ETF is probably owed even more. The U.S. Mint had no sales report. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported taking in 213,413 ounces of silver...and shipped 426,072 ounce out the door. The link to that action is here. I'm delighted to report that I don't have all that many stories for you today...and I hope I've posted some that you'll find of interest. I was also happy to see that both silver and the HUI index broke above their respective 200-day moving averages yesterday. Jim Sinclair: Gold will fly so much it will become untradeable for ordinary investors. Goldline agrees to refund $4.5 million to former customers. Leniency sought in sentencing of Liberty Dollar founder. Critical ReadsFollowing Abysmal 2011, Only 10% Of Hedge Funds Are Outperforming The S&P In 2012Too bad not every hedge fund can be long Apple (even if as Goldman points out, they sure are trying - "One out of five hedge funds has AAPL among its ten largest long positions" - a truly stunning observation and one which means that if Apple, which is priced to absolute perfection, has even one hiccup, we would see an absolutely epic bloodbath in the market). Because if 2011 was a horrible year for hedge funds which closed the year well below, or -10%, their respective benchmark - the S&P (unchanged for the year), the last thing hedge fund LPs can afford is another year in which they pay 2 and 20 to generate a return lower than the S&P. Yet to their horror, this is precisely what is happening. The story that was posted over at the zerohedge.com website yesterday was brought to my attention by readers U.D...and the link is here. Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is FallingPanic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs. Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren't high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be "normal". And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more. At this point, we can be certain that, unless gold prices come down, gasoline prices are going to go up—by a lot. And, because the dollar is currently a floating, undefined, fiat currency, there is no inherent limit to how far the price of gold in dollars can rise, and therefore no ultimate ceiling on gasoline prices. Ah, the voice of sanity and reason! This 2-page article showed up over at the forbes.com website on Wednesday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us. The link is here. Markets at a Glance: Unintended ConsequencesThis months Market at a Glance commentary from Eric Sprott and David Baker over at Sprott Asset Management was posted on their website late yesterday. It's always a must read...and February's offering certainly falls into that category as well. The first paragraph reads as follows... "2012 is proving to be the 'Year of the Central Bank'. It is an exciting celebration of all the wonderful maneuvers central banks can employ to keep the system from falling apart. Western central banks have gone into complete overdrive since last November, convening, colluding and printing their way out of the mess that is the Eurozone. The scale and frequency of their maneuvering seems to increase with every passing week, and speaks to the desperate fragility that continues to define much of the financial system today." As I said, this is a must read. It's posted over at the sprott.com website...and the link is here. EU creditor countries poised to micromanage GreeceEuropean creditor countries are demanding 38 specific changes in Greek tax, spending, and wage policies by the end of this month and have laid out extra reforms that amount to micromanaging the country's government for two years, according to documents obtained by the Financial Times. The reforms, spelt out in three memoranda of a combined 90 pages, are the price that Greece has agreed to pay to obtain a E130 billion second bail-out and avoid a sovereign default that the government feared would throw Greek society into turmoil. They range from the sweeping -- overhauling judicial procedures, centralising health insurance, completing an accurate land registry -- to the mundane -- buying a new computer system for tax collectors, changing the way drugs are prescribed, and setting minimum crude oil stocks. This story was printed in the Financial Times of London yesterday...and is posted in the clear in this GATA release. It's well worth reading...and the link is here. Growing Air of Concern in Greece Over New BailoutEven as the European Union signed off Tuesday on a sweeping new arrangement to help avert a Greek default and stabilize the euro, many people here on the streets saw no end to their country's woes. "They don't want to kill us but keep us down on our knees so we can keep paying them indefinitely," said Eva Kyriadou, 55, as she stood in a square in downtown Athens where the smell of tear gas and the smashed facades from last week's violent riots still lingered. Indeed, the deal was reached amid a growing air of stalemate and concern. Greece's foreign lenders expressed doubts that the new austerity measures the Greek Parliament passed last week — including a 22 percent cut to the private-sector benchmark minimum wage — would actually be carried out, at least before early national elections as soon as April. This story appeared in The New York Times on Tuesday...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here. German showdown with IMF looms as Bundestag blocks rescue fundsGermany's ruling parties are to introduce a resolution in parliament blocking any further boost to the EU's bail-out machinery, vastly complicating Greece's rescue package and risking a major clash with the International Monetary Fund. "European solidarity is not an end in itself and should not be a one-way street. Germany's engagement has reached it limits," said the text, drafted by Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and Free Democrat (FDP) allies. "Germany itself faces strict austerity to comply with the national debt brake," said the declaration, which will go to the Bundestag next week. Lawmakers said there is no scope to boost the EU's "firewall" to €750bn, either by increasing the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) or by running it together with the old bail-out fund (EFSF). This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering showed up very late last night in The Telegraph. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and it's well worth skimming. The link is here. Argentine advice for Greece: 'Default Now!'Here in Argentina, when we watch the terrible things that are happening today in Greece, we can only exclaim, � |
| Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling Posted: 23 Feb 2012 09:17 PM PST  Panic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs. |
| Argentine advice for Greece: ‘Default Now!’ Posted: 23 Feb 2012 09:17 PM PST  Here in Argentina, when we watch the terrible things that are happening today in Greece, we can only exclaim, "Hey!! That's exactly what happened in Argentina in 2001 and 2002…!" A decade ago, Argentina too went through a systemic Sovereign Public Debt collapse resulting in social turmoil, worker hardship, rioting and street fights with the police. Some months before Argentina exploded, then-President Fernando de la Rúa – forced to resign at the height of the 2001 crisis – had called back as finance minister the notorious pro-banker, Trilateral Commission member and Rockefeller/Soros/Rhodes protégée Domingo Cavallo. |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, February 24 2012 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 09:00 PM PST |
| LISTEN: Andy Hoffman: $1,000 – $4,000 Silver Posted: 23 Feb 2012 08:55 PM PST from SGT: Part 1: Part 2: ~TVR |
| Silver Update: “Holding The Bag” Posted: 23 Feb 2012 08:41 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: ~TVR |
| Spinning Necessity as a Virtue: Families to Stand in for Fragmenting Social Safety Nets Posted: 23 Feb 2012 07:51 PM PST An anodyne seeming article at VoxEU, which I reproduce in full below, makes a straightforward seeming case for policies that bolster family ties in the face of a nasty combination of aging populations and high unemployment among the young. It isn't hard to see that this line of thinking is the policy equivalent of getting in front of a mob and trying to call it a parade. We can already see that in bad economic times, many people turn to relatives for help. Kids leave home later, and my impression is having parents help with buying a home is far more common than when I was young. It was unheard of for someone middle aged to move in with his parents; now that sort of story is a human interest staple. I suspect that we will see a partial reversion to the living arrangements of 50 to 100 years ago, when it was more common for multiple generations to live together (which will increase average household sizes and might make better use of McMansions at the expense of new home construction). And even the wealthy worry about their ability to take care of their kids. I saw someone today whose joked that his wife's car was in a list published last weekend of the 100 most expensive cars in Connecticut. He said that even though his kids were smart and would probably go to good schools, he was not sure they'd be able to get jobs. Normally, if push came to shove, he'd be able to get them quietly hired by a friend if the employment market was terrible when they got out of college or grad school, but many of his colleagues were retiring or downsizing their businesses. And even though they'd never starve, he thought it was very important that they work so as not to become trust fund wastrels, or worse, druggies. This VoxEU piece tries to put a positive spin on this trend, but I would not view it as happy. While our atomized society in the US is highly neurotic, my sense is that the weakening of community ties and short job tenures (meaning tenuous social relationships in the workplace) are bigger culprits than nuclear families, which became the new normal in the 1950s and 1960s. Yet economists are deeply weeded to the idea of isolated individuals acting in markets, and it also suits politicians. Napoleon remarked that he was keen on promoting individualism, since it made people easier to control. Similarly, Emile Durkheim described the difference between primitive societies, which he called "mechanical societies" (reversing the industrial metaphor) because people were interchangeable parts, with advanced, "organic societies," which have a great deal of specialization and role differentiation. It isn't hard to see that a necessity-borne emphasis on family bonds will force women back into more traditional roles of caretaking whether they want that or not. Consider this selection from Wikpedia:
And to the post that produced these musings, and hopefully further reader discussion: By Edoardo Campanella, Economist at the Fiscal Affairs Department of the Italian Upper-House. Cross posted from VoxEU Western countries with ageing populations are in the grip a cruel irony. At the same time as having more old people than ever to support, youth unemployment is at its highest levels for a generation. As many of these countries go into elections this year, this column warns against populist politics that panders to the grey vote, and instead calls for leadership that puts the family first. Deep economic crises encourage a radical rethinking of the socioeconomic model that generated them. The combination of shrinking economies, political stalemate, and growing social resentment is inducing people, especially the younger, to question a model of society that is prone to generate huge inequalities as well as great instability but is incapable of providing a long-term direction in difficult times. With general elections approaching in most European countries over the next 12 months, there are all the ingredients for populism to emerge. If so, Europe, not just the common currency, will be under serious threat. To avoid this scenario, it is imperative for aspiring, reliable candidates to speak hard truth to their voters by explaining that sacrifices are not over yet and that more are necessary to tackle the challenges posed by the global market forces that are undermining Europe's prosperity. To persuade their fellow citizens to accept new cutbacks, politicians have to inspire their voters with a shared long-term goal – one that is capable of strengthening social cohesion, motivating common efforts, and justifying reciprocal concessions. In the past, political ideals or religious precepts projected a country into the future by treading the path towards a common goal of justice, equality, or fairness. The end of ideologies, following the fall of the Berlin Wall, along with a growing tendency toward secularisation, multiculturalism, and individualism, has left our society with no driving values. Therefore, what begs asking is whether today's leaders can find a new driving force to revive common interest in their societies. Family and political consensus Nowadays, politicians should look at family, meant as a socioeconomic institution, to replace ideologies or religion in creating political consensus. Across time and space, it has always been the cornerstone in building a sense of community and creating the commitment to the common good. As acknowledged by the European Parliament in 2010, family produces assets and factors for development by promoting peace, stability, and cohesion as well as freedom, responsibility, and solidarity. And in time of crisis, like the current one, it acts as 'shock-absorber'. In greying Western societies, where old people rig political and economic life for their benefit, family is the only institution able to build a bridge between young and old, merging opposite individual interests into a common general one. By creating strong and natural intergenerational links, family projects society into the future by charting a path towards an ideal of fairness between generations that benefits everyone regardless of economic status, religious view, or political affiliation. Yet the countless spiritual virtues, material benefits, and political implications accruing from kinships have long been unnoticed by politics, if not in appearance, surely in practice. In recent decades, myopic leaders, not realising the importance of these intergenerational links, have created consensus and maximised their chance of election just focusing on the most numerous group, the elderly. In several advanced economies, the accumulation of explosive public debts, soaring youth unemployment rates, and dual labour markets are side effects of this political approach. An enlightened leader should realise that people, at least with their close relatives, are altruistic, not selfish. Parents care about the opportunities of their offspring, and the youngsters wish their old relatives to live an untroubled retirement with the assistance of the state. This intra-family altruism spreads out to society as a whole, making policymaking more far-sighted. Focusing a political campaign on the democratic minority, the youth, will capture the votes of many old fathers. And the elderly will be happy twice over.
Thus, by playing on family ties, politicians could persuade older voters that an increase in the retirement age or other fiscal austerity measures are not a dolorous renunciation, but a way to relieve their offspring from unfair obligations. And today's young people, once old, will follow suit in honouring the social contract. This is the political approach adopted by Mario Monti's government to persuade Italians to accept today's sacrifices in exchange for tomorrow's benefits. The role of family-friendly policies But passively appreciating the social, economic, and political benefits accruing from intra-family altruism is not enough to strengthen social cohesion. European leaders should actively promote family as a fundamental principle of our society by adopting a wide set of policies:
Conclusion The next round of voting in Europe presents a great opportunity to rebalance the current socioeconomic model, providing people with a direction in their daily life and avoiding the enormous costs associated with a transition to a yet unspecified alternative model. A family-based approach to politics could sweep away the bleak shadow of populism.
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| The Long-Term Fundamental Case for Gold Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:15 PM PST Ultimately, I am very bullish of gold and silver in the intermediate to longer-term, but in the immediate short-term frame gold could consolidate or pullback before breaking out to the upside. |
| Gold, Silver Juniors Should Shine in 2012: Mark Raguz Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:00 PM PST After a tough 2011, Mark Raguz and his colleagues at Pinetree Capital are looking at the junior resource sector with renewed optimism. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he names some of the... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter |
| Gold Stocks Nearing End of Wall of Worry Stage Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:42 PM PST
Gold Stocks have quietly rebuilt momentum. GDX reversed its breakdown in January and has steadily climbed back. One thing of note, the daily RSI has not pierced 70 since May 2010. Momentum has subdued for almost two years while the gold stocks have not had a rip roaring breakout to new highs since early 2006!
Though GDX is trading above its 2008 levels, it has never pulled away from or sustained a breakout through that level of 55. We are essentially looking at a multi-month consolidation but a potential breakout from a multi-year base. Should GDX rally back to 66 it would setup a potential cup and handle pattern which would project to 82. By the time the market breaks 66 it should have some serious momentum behind it and of the character that we haven't seen since early 2006. We believe there are a variety of driving forces (aside from the obvious) for a continued advance and break to new highs. First, the stock market is nearing long term resistance. It could fail at resistance coinciding with precious metals challenging new highs. Second, the combination of low valuations and a move in Gold to new highs would be very explosive. The market would realize that earnings are growing rapidly yet valuations are near a floor. Third, the large gold producers are increasing their dividends. According to Bloomberg: Agnico and Kinross said Feb. 15 they will increase their payouts to investors. Barrick, Goldcorp and AngloGold have also announced dividend increases in the past year. Newmont Gold, the second-biggest gold miner by sales, said yesterday it's more than doubling its quarterly dividend, 10 months after announcing it would link payments to the gold price. Increased dividends will attract more mainstream investors who can achieve income, inflation protection and exposure to a bull market. However, the real gains will be in juniors who can grow their production or juniors which outline significant discoveries. If you'd be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the best mining stocks for 2012, then we invite you to learn more about our service. Good Luck! Jordan Roy Byrne, CMT
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