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Thursday, February 23, 2012

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2012-02-22 Morningstar gold price forecast $1,200 long-term

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:07 PM PST

Morningstar, a financial data provider specializing primarily in mutual funds research, has recently published a number of gold price forecasts. In the newest release, Morningstar maintains its bearish long-term outlook for gold.

2012-02-23 Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley gold price forecast for 2012 and 2013

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:57 AM PST

Goldman Sachs maintains its previous prediction of 2012 average gold price of $1,940 despite lowering its return forecast for the broader commodity complex from 15% to 12%.

Looking further into the future, Morgan Stanley expects an average gold price of $2,175 in 2013.

Further reading:

'Am I In A One-Sided Trade?' Gold, Silver Longs Just Might Be

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:40 AM PST

By Paulo Santos:

"Am I In A One-Sided Trade?"

That has got to hit the conscientious trader's mind often, especially if he's trend following. One knows how trades that get too one-sided, with all the market playing the same side, are prone to brutally quick reversals, inevitably catching some of the traders off-guard and inflicting severe pain on them.

An example could be seen last year, when silver first went parabolic in March and April, and then, starting with a 14% plunge on a quiet Sunday afternoon, went on to lose more than 30% in just 5 days.

click to enlarge

Trying to avoid this fate thus requires a trader to try and find data that somehow gives him a representation of the market's positioning.

How to gauge other traders' positioning

Here, he can either find indirect data regarding sentiment - which is expected to reflect other traders' positioning, even if it doesn't


Complete Story »

The Quantitative Easing Illusion: Fractioning The Dollar, Undervaluing The Markets

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:08 AM PST

By Scott Matusow:

On a regular basis, I hear guests on CNBC constantly saying the market is overbought. After awhile, I wonder if these individuals learned about modern finance from a Cracker-Jack box. These same people were screaming at the world in 2008 to buy all the dips as the Dow was heading towards 6500, suggesting to us that the market was undervalued.

Then there was me, who got my family thoroughly out of the markets near the highs of the same year. I saw liquidity drying up, I knew about over leveraging taking place, and the overspeculated housing market that was already well on its way to crashing into the ground.

I'm a High School drop-out who beat these guys and the markets in 2008, and on a consistent basis, I still beat them both. How did I get the call right, when many of these college educated geniuses got it wrong,


Complete Story »

Hertz Global Holdings' CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:00 AM PST

Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call

February 23, 2012 10:00 am ET

Executives

Leslie Hunziker - Staff Vice President of Investor Relations

Mark P. Frissora - Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, Member of Executive Committee, Chairman of Hertz Corp and Chief Executive Officer of Hertz Corp

Elyse Douglas - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer of Hertz Corp

Unknown Executive -

Scott P. Sider - Executive Vice President and President of Car Rental & Leasing The Americas

Analysts

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Michael Millman - Millman Research Associates

Richard M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

Emily E. Shanks - Barclays Capital, Research Division

John M. Healy - Northcoast Research

Adam Silver

Fred T. Lowrance - Avondale Partners, LLC, Research Division

Yilma Abebe - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Bobby


Complete Story »

Miners Saving the Silver Price?

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:57 AM PST

A few months have passed and we were interested to see how silver miners have reacted to Eric Sprott's open letter calling silver miners to arms last November. Mr. Sprott urged the miners to think about bit more deeply about their precious product.

What Are The Potential Outcomes For Silver In 2012?

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:54 AM PST

By Lior Cohen:

I have already written and posted my projections for silver in 2012 along with an analysis for the major events that affected its development during 2011. In this post I will examine the potential outcomes of silver during 2012 along with my estimation of the probability of each scenario occurring.

So what is the outlook for silver in 2012?

See here for the complete analysis on silver outcomes.

There are several scenarios I think we should consider:

Silver ranging between $30 and $35 (probability of this option - high): This scenario, in my opinion is most likely. It means the silver price will end nearly the same as it reached by the end of 2011. One of the driving forces for silver was speculation around the depreciation of USD due to the QE plans, low interest rates, low return on other investments and the rally of gold. Despite these factors,


Complete Story »

india, largest silver importer, sees demand/price rising

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:15 AM PST

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...ail&id=102055

Silver prices in India are set to surge to $2,033 (Rs 100,000) a kilo (over US$60/ounce) in 2012 given the uncertain global economic situation, according to an official of the Bombay Bullion Association, an apex traders body that deals in gold and silver. The world's largest importer of silver, India, could well import 5,000 tonnes this year as compared to about 4,800 tonne in 2011, the official pointed out.

"India is one of the largest users of silver and is ranked third in the world after USA and Japan. With average silver imports per annum of around 3,100 tonnes, the country's imports jumped to 4,800 tonnes in 2011. The previous year, India imported just 2,800 tonnes,'' said Jitendra Jain of the Association.

He added that though lots of silver was bought last year by retailers and investors, "imports of gold too were heavy. However, this year, gold imports are set to decline for the first time in three years and could well be way below 900 tonnes.''

Manubhai Shroff, bullion retailer added, "India's gold imports were valued at $29 billion in 2011 and were expected to cross $40 billion in the coming financial year. The recent import duties hike has however dampened demand and resulted in a decline. Silver has got much support though despite the duty hikes.''

On Thursday, spot silver rates for 1 kilo of silver in the Mumbai market was trading at $1181 (Rs 58,075) - US$36.73 an ounce. Shroff noted that the price could well rise in the coming months and shoot up with a good monsoon season.

India could import 300 tonnes of silver during the quarter, said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association. Though the country registered a 30% fall in silver imports in May 2011, demand is seen as surging this year and prices are expected to shoot up, he added.

Silver prices in India have more than doubled in the last two years. Kothari said investors are intent on selling silver with every small jump and eager to book a profit. Despite the high prices of silver, Kothari added the consumption of the metal has been rising in India.

India produces around 7.3 million ounces of silver a year (206.95 tonnes). Appetite for the white metal predominantly comes from rural buyers, with normal monsoons boosting crop production with a consequent benefit to incomes.

Around 50% of imports come from China, while recycling makes up some of the supply of the metal. Traders said Indian investors are keen to buy more silver to hedge market losses, since silver is proving to be an ideal investment tool. Though the weak global economic data may dampen the outlook for silver's industrial use, traders said inflation concerns in India are set to bring in more investors.

Technicals: Stocks & PM's In Strong Up Trend

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 03:06 AM PST

Chris Talks about how the SP500 should bounce and rally from this mornings low and for gold and silver to continue to move higher.

from TheTechnicalTraders:

~TVR

Gold/Platinum Ratio Falling

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 02:24 AM PST

from GoldMoney.com:

Platinum bars Platinum prices jumped to their highest level in five months yesterday on the back of strength across the entire commodity complex, and supply concerns owing to an on-going strike at the Rustenburg platinum mine in South Africa. As The Wall Street Journal reports, protracted strike action at Impala Platinum Holdings' Rustenburg mine has spooked the commodity market, with the most actively-traded Comex platinum contract for April delivery gaining $35.90 (2.1%) yesterday, settling at $1,720.80 per troy ounce.

This mine is Impala's second largest platinum deposit; the company accounts for 25% of total world platinum output and estimates that it's already lost 80,000 ounces of production as a result of the strikes, with 20,000 being lost per week. If these labour disputes continue, platinum will continue closing the gap in terms of its price difference with gold. We could soon see it once again becoming more expensive than the yellow metal. If industrial unrest spreads across the country, gold and palladium prices could also be pushed higher, given South Africa's status as the second-largest producer in the world of both of these metals.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

3000+ Tons Of Gold To Be Confiscated

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 02:19 AM PST

Projected PIIGS Pillage: 3233.5 Tons Of Gold To Be Confiscated By Insolvent European Banks

from ZeroHedge:

While hardly discussed broadly in the mainstream media, the top news of the past 24 hours without doubt is that in addition to losing its fiscal sovereignty, and numerous other things, the Greek population is about to lose its gold in a perfectly legitimate fashion, following amendments to the country's constitution by unelected banker technocrats, who will make it legal for Greek creditors – read insolvent European banks – to plunder the Greek gold which at last check amounts to 111.6 tonnes according to the WGC. And so we come full circle to what the ultimate goal of banker intervention in the European periphery is – nothing short of full gold confiscation. So just how much gold will be pillaged by the banker oligarchy (it is amusing how many websites believe said gold is sacrosanct by regional national banks, and thus the EUR is such a stronger currency as it has all this 'gold backing' – hint: it doesn't, as all the gold is about to be transferred to non-extradition countries)? As the World Gold Council shows in its latest update, between all the PIIGS, who will with 100% certainty suffer the same fate as Greece (which has shown that unlike during World War 2, it is perfectly willing to turn over and do nothing) there is 3234 tonnes of gold to be plundered. And likely more as further constitutional amendments will likely make the confiscation of private gold the next big step. how much does this amount to? At today's prices this is just shy of $185 billion. Of course by the time the market grasps what is going on the spot price of the yellow metal will be far, far higher. Or, potentially far, far lower and totally fixed as the open gold market is eventually done away with entirely in a reversion to FDR gold confiscation and price fixing days.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Gold Trading at 3-Month High on Options Expiry

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:42 AM PST

Precious metals rose across the board Thursday morning, extending yesterday's sharp jump in New York trade. Today marks expiry for March options on US gold futures, with the bulk of interest between $1,750 and $1,800 per ounce.

Greece’s Lenders Have The Right To Seize National Gold Reserves

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:38 AM PST

LISTEN: David Morgan talks Silver with Ellis Martin

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:31 AM PST

from OpportunityShow:
In this interview Ellis Martin takes David Morgan to task for misinterpreting Chinese pictography to mean something it's not after being called to task by a Chinese listener/follower. Mr. Morgan claimed this incident to be an honest mistake although he still believes silver is money, even though admittedly he does not speak Chinese nor should he attempt to break down the language for his lecture/workshop audiences.

This editorial staff has given Mr. Morgan this opportunity to apologize to the Chinese people for the unintended slur. Stick to English, David. You're really good at it. Before the interview began Mr. Martin inadvertently called Mr. Morgan" Dave." He's not Dave. He's David. He's never been Dave. Dave is simply not here. The editorial staff of The Ellis Martin Report hereby also apologizes to the Chinese people for this oversight as well. We love Chinese people.
Mr. Morgan continues to stand by his prediction of $60 silver before the end of the year and a proverbial leg up in a bull market for silver as well as gold. Is it all speculative or is industrial demand factored in? Nevertheless, he alludes to a market like none we've never seen for precious metals as fund managers plow resources of their middle class constituents into the bullion in numbers not seen previously….and…. Is IS is? We still don't know. We may never know. Finally Mr. Morgan whips out Old Glory, quotes Patrick Henry and stumps nearly tearfully for freedom. He's clearly got "nothing left to lose" to quote Janis Joplin, or at least the US doesn't. " Give me liberty" and while you're at it, "Give me all the gold and silver bullion and all the gold and silver stocks that I can afford.

Silvers value!

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:14 AM PST

Silver is fair valued at $7.39 ct + or - 10 ct

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:36_11_6::36_1_11:

Case Study - Timberline Double Bottom?

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 12:43 AM PST

HOUSTON -- Following Timberline Resources' (AMEX:TLR) announcement that its expected final mine operating permit for the Butte Highlands underground mine in Montana would be delayed until perhaps mid-2012, shares of the soon-to-be low-cost gold producer dipped in disappointment selling from the $0.60 range to as low as $0.45 on January 13, 2012.  (Our coverage at this link.)

In the very short term volume candle chart just below the second of two downward thrusts is visible.  On Valentine's Day TLR dipped again, but this time fetched up at a slightly higher $0.47, potentially establishing a technical double bottom with a slightly higher low. 

20120223-TLR 1

The double bottom is more visible in this longer-term volume candle chart.

Continued… 

20120223-TLR 2

What is interesting about these charts from our biased perspective (we are long shares of TLR) is that TLR may have just shown us where "overwhelming support" (OS) resides.  For non-Vultures, we use the term "overwhelming support" (OS on our private charts) to indicate the level where an issue finds it extremely difficult to trade below it.  In theory, it is the zone that no matter how much selling pressure comes in, there are ample buyers ready to take all comers at that level.  A price where insiders, deep discount value hunters, low price loving bargain specialists and similar Vulture-style buyers/traders all come in on the bid at OS independently, each acting in their own self-interest.

Although we cannot know if an issue has reached OS until after the fact, we get signs and signals that OS may be forming in the daily and hourly charts sometimes. One of the indicators we look for and take note when we see them is candle stick trading bars that exhibit what we call "rat tails," which are long lower shadows (thin lines at the bottom of the candles) on hourly, daily and weekly trading bars. When we see rat tails consistently we have come to take that as a sign that the stock "wants" to travel in the opposite direction. 

Rat tails (our name for them) don't occur in a vacuum, so they cannot overcome company specific bad news,  exogenous or market wide calamity, or sudden sector sell downs, but all things being equal our experience is that they can be a reliable indicator much (not all) of the time.  Rat tails are sign that bidders are taking most any dip to accumulate, we believe.        

Over the past couple of trading sessions TLR has gradually moved higher, on relatively low volume, indicating that the selling pressure which took it to a 52-week low was exhausted.  It also indicates that some anticipatory accumulation is also underway. 

Below is a much longer-term chart of TLR to put the two charts above into some context. The chart below is the very same one we used to highlight TLR at Brien Lundin's New Orleans Investment Conference in October, updated to February 22.  The disappointment selling managed to take the trading into the very top portion of the zone we have dubbed the "Road Kill Level." 

20120223-TLR 3

Everyone knows how much Vultures love road kill.  

Disclosure:  Timberline Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #4. Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating shares of TLR and continue to hold a speculative long position in the company.  

Silver went above $35

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 12:38 AM PST

Bullish sign.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 02/23/12

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 11:30 PM PST

Gold currently sitting at $1,775, first target. $1,800 in sight. Market needs to keep the upward bias. Silver lagging, but within .25 cents of 200 day moving average. If silver closes above the $34.80 area, a quick move to $35.50 area should follow, with the $37.20 area as initial target. The market has been here before so we should get some two sided trading as buyers are skeptical. A clean break of $1,800 should encourage a new round of buyers, moves can be quick, please refresh screens.

Metals Look to US Inflation Outlook, Dollar Action

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 11:27 PM PST

Gold prices jumped to a three-month high on the back of a widely-circulated article that claimed the Federal Reserve will extend the so-called "Operation Twist" stimulus program beyond June.

Bob Chapman - The Financial survival - 22 February 2012

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:24 PM PST

Bob Chapman - Discount Gold and Silver Trading - 22 February 2012 : what...

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Bob Chapman - Dr Deagle Show - 22 Feb 2012

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:23 PM PST

Bob Chapman - Dr Deagle - 22 Feb 2012 : the Petro dollar is in danger after...

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India Silver Imports May Top 5,000 Tonnes in 2012

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price fell and rose five bucks between the Far East open and the London open...but by 8:40 a.m. in New York, gold was down ten bucks from Wednesday's close.

That proved to be the low of the day...and by 1:05 p.m. Eastern gold was only down a couple of bucks from the previous day.

At the point, a serious buyer showed up...and away the price went to the upside.  Surprisingly enough, this rally continued well into the New York Access Market.  But at precisely 2:30 p.m. Eastern someone stepped in and put an end to the fun.  At the 2:30 p.m. high, gold hit $1,783.00 spot.

From there, gold got sold off a few bucks and closed the Thursday trading session at $1,775.80 spot...up $15.50 on the day.  Net volume, although quite a bit lighter than Tuesday, was still pretty chunky at 158,000 contracts.

Silver's price action was the same...but different.  The Far East high came about ten minutes before the London open, which is the standard time for silver to get it's first smack of the day...with the low of the day coming shortly after 8:30 a.m. in New York.

Then, like gold, silver rallied higher.  But before it could build up a real head of steam, it got sold off for a couple of hours between 11:15 a.m. and 1:15 p.m. Eastern.  You can see from the Kitco chart below, that silver's two attempts to launch skyward after that were dealt with in the usual fashion.

The spike rally at 2:20 p.m. in New York blasted silver to its $34.60 spot high of the day.  From there, silver got sold down and closed at $34.26 spot...a loss of 9 cents on the day.  Gross volume  was a staggering 93,555 contracts...but once the spreads and roll-overs out of the March contract were subtracted from the total, net volume fell to a far more reasonable 31,000 contracts.

The dollar index is still range bound...and spent all of Wednesday hanging onto the 79.00 mark by its fingernails.  It's obvious that the movements in the dollar index had nothing to do with yesterday's price action in the precious metals.

The 1:15 p.m. price spike in gold is pretty easy to pick on the HUI chart below...as was the absolute high tick in gold at 2:30 p.m.  It's obvious that if a not-for-profit seller hadn't shown up at that time, both gold and the HUI would have finished much higher than they did.  But the HUI finished up 1.68% regardless.

Well, the silver shares didn't pay too much attention to the 9 cent loss in the metal yesterday...as the vast majority of the silver equities finished well in the black.  Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 1.31%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that only 43 gold contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.  But the big surprise was that another 31 silver contracts were added to the February delivery month yesterday.  That brings the number of open contracts in February silver up to 125...which is a lot.  If all these contract holders stand for delivery, it has to happen within the next four business days...including today.  Will Jefferies be the short/issuer once again?  Stay tuned!

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Wednesday.

The U.S. Mint reported selling 300,000 silver eagles, finally breaking the million mark on silver eagle sales at 1,250,000.

There wasn't a huge amount of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday.  They reported receiving 7,615 ounces of silver...and shipped 57,025 ounces out the door.

Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary to this paying subscribers...and here are three free paragraphs...

"If the agency does the right thing and finds that the silver market had been manipulated, the silver world would change overnight. Suddenly, the world would come to realize that silver had been a crooked market from no less of a source than the US Government itself. No more vague suspicions or arguments about far out conspiracy theories about people (me) who didn't know what they were talking about. No more anything of that sort. The matter would be settled for all time. Yes, I will derive immense personal satisfaction from such an outcome, but there is a lot more to it than that."

"In the event that the CFTC does what is correct...and what is required of them to do by the rule of law, then you better own some silver. A sudden announcement that a US Government agency found silver to have been manipulated to the downside would likely trigger off reactions from world silver producers, consumers and investors that are impossible to fully comprehend. Miners would be angry for having been cheated by artificially low prices. Industrial users and investors would rush to buy before others did so. This event alone could quickly spiral into the silver bubble I wrote about recently. The legal repercussions are also hard to fathom for a manipulation that lasted for many years. But the bottom line is that it would likely set off a buying wave never seen before. Please remember this is a highly unique situation specific only to silver; as there is no gold, or corn, or crude oil investigation underway. Therefore, any price impact should be primarily confined to silver. This outcome is not the only reason to buy and hold silver, but it would be enough if it were the only one."

"Because the price stakes are so potentially explosive in the event the CFTC moves against the silver manipulators, I think that may go a long way to explaining the agency's foot-dragging to this point and why they need to be pressured to do their job. I know that many, perhaps most of you believe, that the silver manipulation is run by the government (thru JPM) to protect the dollar or maintain some semblance of normalcy in the financial markets. Given all the facts, that's certainly a plausible explanation. My take is different - I think the agency knows full well that a crime is in progress but is afraid to set off what would likely be a major silver market reaction. But it's time for the Commission to man (and woman) up...and uphold their most important responsibility of all concerning manipulation."

I have the usual number of stories again today...and I hope you have the time to spend on the ones you think are worth your while.

If 'da boyz' hadn't been messing with the silver price yesterday, it might have taken out its 200-day moving average to the upside.
Jim Sinclair: Big events and volatility in gold are imminent. James Turk: Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1. Rio Tinto Unearths Australia's Largest Pink Diamond.

¤ Critical Reads

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The Volcker Rule, Made Bloated and Weak

The Volcker Rule, named after Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is meant to bar financial institutions that are protected and subsidized by the federal government from trading for their own accounts. That is, it's pretty simple: Traders shouldn't speculate for their own personal gain using the money you and I pay in taxes.

Yet bank lobbyists with complicit regulators and legislators took a simple concept and bloated it into a 530-page monstrosity of hopeless complexity and vagueness.

They couldn't kill the rule. Instead, they are getting Congress and regulators to render it morbidly obese and bedridden.

Reader Phil Barlett sent me this story from yesterday's edition of The New York Times, in the wee hours of this morning.  The link is here.

NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From +5% to -0.5%

And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR: December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million).  Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked.

This story was posted over at the zerohedge.com website yesterday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it along.  The link is here.

From China: To the indebted nations of Europe

Here's a couple of paragraphs from an op-ed piece that was posted on the chinadaily.com.cn website earlier today.

To be frank, some of us don't understand why the rich are holding out their hands to the poor and asking for money. For common Chinese people, the wealth of your nations is unimaginable. The average monthly income of your citizens - at around $4,000 in countries such as Germany and Belgium - is 12 times that of the average Chinese citizen. The Chinese workers in the factories in coastal cities have to work 12 hours or longer each day with basically no days off, while workers in France enjoy two months of paid vacation, national holidays and regional festivals each year. If we can save 50 percent of our earnings, surely it should be possible for you to save just 1 percent of yours. 

The cause of the crisis is simple: You have spent more than you earned. If we are injecting our hard-earned money into Greek, Irish, Portuguese or Italian government bonds, you should show the political resolve to clean up your own backyard. You have to stop bickering and dragging your feet over the urgently needed austerity measures. It is time to roll up your sleeves and get the job done.

Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me this scathing indictment late last night...and even though the writer was talking to Europe, he was also talking to America as well.  It's a must read...and the link is here.

Japan uses commercial banks to disguise currency market rigging

The Bank of Japan's disclosure Tuesday that it secretly sold yen for several days in November has been followed by relative stability in the yen's exchange rate. That has prompted analysts to suggest an invisible-hand approach might be a better alternative to massive interventions that ultimately fall short.

On Oct. 31st, the BoJ -- acting at the behest of the Ministry of Finance, which sets currency policy -- entered markets to sell yen after it surged to a record high against the dollar. But analysts were caught off guard by MoF's admission that between Nov. 1 and Nov. 4, it conducted an additional $13.3 billion worth of "stealth intervention" by using a limited number of commercial banks sworn to secrecy.

Gee whiz...that sounds exactly like what the Commercial banks are doing in the gold and silver markets as well.  This story showed up in The Wall Street Journal on February 7th...and bears the headline "Japan's Secret Yen Interventions Could be Template for Future".  It's printed in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.

UN nuclear inspectors declare Iran mission a disappointment

The diplomatic options for a solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis narrowed on Wednesday after a team of UN nuclear inspectors returned from Tehran without agreement on visiting a suspect site.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to issue its latest report on the Iranian nuclear programme on Friday, but took the unusual step of criticising Tehran's approach in a statement issued while the inspectors were still flying back to its headquarters in Vienna.

The main stumbling block was Iran's refusal to allow the IAEA team to visit a military site at Parchin, where the last agency report, issued in November, said there was a steel chamber which could have been used for testing explosives of a type performed in the development of a nuclear warhead.

This story showed up at the guardian.co.uk website yesterday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us.  The link is here.

What Iranian Elites Think: An Inside Look at Views of the West

Israeli hawks are threatening a military strike in order to stop Iran's nuclear program and many Republican presidential candidates in the US also support action. A loose survey of students and academics in Tehran shows that even among opponents of President Ahmadinejad, anti-Western sentiment is strong.

Of course, it's difficult to ascertain the views of Iranians. State censorship is tight, and foreign journalists are rarely allowed into the country. Nevertheless, it is possible to make contact with some Iranians. And when you speak with them, you learn something quite surprising: Even if they oppose Ahmadinejad, their radical president, most of these Iranians still view their country as the victim in the current circumstances. They also view the West as an enemy and fail to consider or acknowledge that th

Jim Sinclair: Big events and volatility in gold are imminent

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

Last night Jim Sinclair provided a detailed summary of his view of the world financial situation and writes that big events in gold are imminent, with a lot of volatility.

Sinclair's commentary is headlined "Companies with Mineable Ounces Soundest Investment for Coming Volatility".  I borrowed the introduction from a GATA release, but the first one through the door with this story was reader U.D.  It was posted at over at the JSMineset.com Internet site last evening...and the link is here.

James Turk: Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

GoldMoney founder James Turk believes that while one can't predict what the catalyst is going to be that will force gold and silver higher, the bull market [in both] remains intact.

The audio and text version of this interview was posted over at the mineweb.com yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second-to-last offering in today's column.  The link is here.

India silver imports may top 5,000 tons in 2012

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

India's silver imports may top 5,000 metric tons in 2012 due to strong investment demand, Prithviraj Kothari, the president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said Tuesday.

The country imported around 4,800 tons of silver last year, he said.

"Silver demand is expected to rise on firm industrial and investment demand," he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

Though demand for silver may not pick up in the next few weeks as returns from debt instruments are better than that from silver, investment interest in the white metal is expected to grow as and when the country's central bank starts lowering lending rates, Mr. Kothari said.

read more

Commodity pool operator should have stuck to gold or silver

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

Yesterday, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the filing and simultaneous settlement of charges against commodity pool operator D.E. Shaw & Co. L.P. of New York for exceeding speculative position limits in soybean and corn futures contracts in trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The order requires D.E. Shaw to pay a $140,000 civil monetary penalty and cease and desist from further violations of section 4a(b) of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulation 150.2.

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The Fear of Gold: Jeff Berwick

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

I was on a panel at the recent California Investment Conference in Palm Springs and the question was asked, "What percentage of your portfolio should be in gold bullion?"

The first panelist answered 20%. The second panelist said, up to 30%. Then it came to me.

"I have no problem with someone having 100% of their portfolio in gold," I stated bluntly. Many in the crowd laughed. Their laughter confused me. What's so funny about that, I thought?

I went on, "I think it's weird that people find my answer weird."

read more

Two King World News Blogs

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:19 PM PST

The first one is headlined "Stephen Leeb - Expect $6 per Gallon Gas and Huge Surge in Gold and Silver"...and the second blog with Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund, is entitled "Asia's Gold Buying Continues, Japanese Next."

Bill Murphy: High Gold Prices Bad for Business

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:00 PM PST

GATA's Bill Murphy joins us from the California Resource Investment Conference for this special Kitco News/ Cambridge House joint-production. In the interview, conducted by Tommy Humphreys, Murphy explains why high gold prices are "bad for business". Feb. 21, 2012.

~TVR

Gold & Silver Market Morning, February 23 2012

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 09:00 PM PST

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