saveyourassetsfirst3

Dollar Tree's CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Meadow Bay Drills 56.39 m of 3.93 g/t Au at Atlanta
Wednesday's ETF To Watch: Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
Herding Greek Cats from Bondage
HUI Gold Bugs Index – Big Picture Monthly View
Bix Weir: “SIlver Is More Precious Than Gold”
British pound drops; losses limited, analysts say
MEDIA RELEASE - GOLD BULLION OR CASH VIDEO LAUNCHED TODAY …
Gold to $8,890, Silver to $517 Says John Williams of Shadow Stats
Cheers or Jeers?
Gold Prices ‘At Risk from New Greek Crisis’
This well-known energy stock just killed its dividend
Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1 - Turk
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 02/22/12
The Fear of Gold
Commodities Surge as Sentiment Lifts
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Chart
Hayek vs Keynes
8 Reasons Greek Debt Default Can't Be Stopped
John Embry: Machinations to Blame For End-of-Year Slide
Rick Rule - Greek Bailout and What it Means for Gold
As Dow Passes 13,000 In Nominal Terms, Here Is The "Real" Picture
Trading Silver with Options to Earn 127% in 4 Months
Silver Wheaton CEO: “Demand for Silver Exploding”
Silver Update: “Greece or Iceland”
President’s Are Not Re-Elected With A Depression On Their Watch
Who's Buying Gold in China?
Links 2/22/12
Ben Subletts Lost Gold Mine
Will Expiration of Tax Break Render Much of Mortgage Settlement Moot?

Dollar Tree's CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call

February 22, 2012 9:00 am ET

Executives

Timothy J. Reid – Vice President, Investor Relations

Bob Sasser – President and Chief Executive Officer

Kevin S. Wampler – Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Charles Grom – Deutsche Bank

John Zolidis – Buckingham Research Group

Matthew Boss – JPMorgan

Adrianne Shapira – Goldman Sachs

Dan Wewer – Raymond James

Edgar Roesch – NOMURA Equity Research

Daniel Binder – Jefferies & Company

Presentation

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Dollar Tree Inc. Fourth Quarter 2011 Earnings Release. As a reminder, today

Complete Story »

Meadow Bay Drills 56.39 m of 3.93 g/t Au at Atlanta

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 05:10 AM PST

MEADOW BAY GOLD REPORTS DRILL RESULTS INCLUDING 56 METERS OF 3.9 G/T GOLD FROM ATLANTA GOLD PORPHRY AND 105 METERS OF 2 G/T GOLD IN SHEAR ZONE IN NEVADA

Meadow Bay Gold Corp. has provided assay results from five reverse circulation and one core drill hole at its Atlanta gold mine project, Lincoln county, Nevada.

Drilling in 2011 discovered porphyry-hosted gold mineralization to the west of the historic Atlanta open pit. The porphyry-hosted mineralization is distinctly different from the gold-silver mineralization within jasperoid breccias in the Atlanta fault that were mined previously. After the discovery was made, drilling was redirected to explore the extent of the porphyry mineralization and determine if gold mineralization extends farther northward.

Gold mineralization has been identified in all five of the porphyry holes for which results have been received to date. This includes hole DHRC-11-RCN03 on northern extent of the Atlanta porphyry, and hole DHRC-11-RCN05 which is close to the centre of the porphyry. Hole DHRC-11-RCN06 also intersected porphyry-hosted gold mineralization but recovery was poor within the target interval. Holes DHRC-11-15C and DHRC-11-RCN07 intersected low-level gold mineralization. The significant intercepts are listed in the table.

Assay results were also received for hole DHRC-11-RCN02. This hole intersected the jasperoid breccia northwest of the Atlanta pit and hit an unusually long intercept of gold and silver mineralization. This hole is 50 m northwest of hole DHRC-11-07C which also encountered a long mineralized intercept but failed to reach the target depth. Results for DHRC-11-07C were previously reported.

The results obtained to date show that gold mineralization occurs within the Atlanta porphyry over approximately 300 metres in an east-west direction and 400 m north-south. The southern margin of the porphyry is terminated by the same east-west high-angle fault that truncates the jasperoid breccia-hosted mineralization in the Atlanta fault. The porphyry butts up against the Atlanta fault on the east and appears to be cut by another high-angle fault to the west. The northern limit of the porphyry has not yet been tested by drilling.

Robert Dinning, chief executive officer, commented: "Following the discovery of porphyry-hosted gold mineralization last fall, the question in the back of our minds was whether we would find gold north of the discovery holes. Confirming that mineralization extends the length of the porphyry has resolved a fundamental uncertainty. Our current focus is gaining a better understanding of the distribution of precious metals within the Atlanta porphyry. On the exploration side, we are looking at areas with similar geophysical characteristics with the intent of finding additional gold-bearing porphyries within the Atlanta district which we control in its entirety."

See Full Release Here

Wednesday's ETF To Watch: Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 04:22 AM PST

By Jarred Cummans:

Investors cheered as European leaders were able to come to a consensus on a Greek debt deal late yesterday to help the severely indebted nation. The terms will total to a 130 billion euro package marking the second relief funding that the country has received in the past two years. Some believe that this may help get Greece back on track, while others feel that the deal is simply prolonging the inevitable and only providing a temporary boost to markets until the same issue resurfaces down the road. No matter what happens, the Street will be happy to focus on something other than Greece for the next few days, as a number of significant data points are slated for the week [see also Why No Investor Should Own GLD].

Today will see data released in the U.S. regarding existing home sales. The housing market has been a major point of

Complete Story »

Herding Greek Cats from Bondage

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 04:21 AM PST

Listen to the empty words of the last bailout for Greece. Credibility with the Jackass was lost back on the third bailout, well over a year ago, out of the six bailouts in total. Perhaps it is seven comprehensive final bailouts. The pattern is clear. The politicians, without popular support, forge agreements on debt coverage with the Greek officials. The deals fall through, hit the ground, and expose the lack of support even from the European bankers, led by the Germans. The pattern has been vividly clear for over a year, enough for my dismissal of new accords right away on the basis that the German bankers will not conform and agree to the deals struck. The political leaders in France (Sarkozy) and Germany (Merkel) are due to lose their offices, yet they continue to march around at useless summits attempting to cut last ditch agreements that mean nothing. The people are not willing in Germany to hand over any more than the $3 trillion to date, from the start of the common Euro currency experiment. The bankers, like at the Bundesbank, should attend the summits, but that would be too obvious on where the majority of power is held. What is unfolding is a comprehensive Greek Govt debt default from the inability to contain the situation, the impracticality of the austerity budgets put in place, the wreckage that has come to the Greek Economy, and the intractable solution.

My view is the entire charade for two years has been a grand delay to enable the big banks to sell out of their bonds and dump them on the Euro Central Bank. Almost every bailout has been of bank assets in some sort of redemption, not budget assistance. The biggest question posed and not answered is: HOW ANGRY ARE THE OWNERS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND EURO CENTRAL BANK TO ACCUMULATE AND OWN SUCH A MOUNTAIN OF TOXIC PAPER?? My German banker source says the Germans will make what seem like agreements or permit the politicians to make them, but the bankers will consistently obstruct them. He steadily stresses how Germany has wasted $300 billion in savings each year, is exhausted, and no longer is willing or able to provide national welfare for Southern Europe. They will write no more checks except what will successfully grab collateral prize properties. It has become obvious the Greeks will not hand over much of any property without lighting the city on fire. It is the end of the bailout road. A few months ago my firm position, stated in the newsletter, that the bailouts would end when the riots amplify. They have amplified. Conclusion: GAME OVER.

Next comes a planned or unplanned default. Let's see how inequitable they will make it. Obviously it will be inequitable, since all accords have greatly favored the bankers. The TARP Fund was the most egregious, but it only disguised the bigger multi-$trillion grants with zero cost to the many banks, both central bank and private bank. The upshot of the Financial Regulatory Bill is that the USFed must open its books, but only after such loans take place, not to be reversed. Back to Greece. For a few months, some clarity and realism has entered the discussions and analysis concerning the burning nation of antiquity. The new theme has been that Greece will default, must default, and cannot avoid a default. Exactly. So the challenge is to avoid the horrendous collateral damage that will come. The central bankers, regional commissars, and technocrats have been working overtime, but Davos was a missed opportunity for forging potential solutions or at least elements.

A great comment came out of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The comment came from one of the few Economics Nobel Winners who makes any sense at all. The recent parade of prize winners seems either clownish in support of the status quo in disaster mode, or abstruce to the point of irrelevance. Joseph Stiglitz uttered perhaps the only wisdom or story worth reporting from the forum, a country club gathering of bankers and their investment fund cohorts whose mission is to defend the failing system. Stiglitz said, "European leaders repeat the same kind of platitudes, [like] we need to get growth going, [like] austerity will not be enough, but no country has policies that will achieve growth. I have not heard a single thing here in Davos that has convinced me that the European leaders have any sense of what they need to do and will do. Nobody knows who owes what to whom, where the risks of a Greek default are." It reminds me of a premise that the first step in a reconstruction, remedy, and solution is to liquidate the big insolvent banks. But that is precisely where the power lies in controlling the USGovt. If not the banks, the agencies that have evolved into a private sprawling enterprise control much hidden power.

BLUEPRINT FOR DAMAGE CONTROL

One must be serious and grounded in reality. No solution exists for Greece without liquidation of their debt, its restructure with huge writedowns if not total wipeout loss, a return to the Drachma currency, recapitalization of their banks, and a hands off to carpetbaggers. Almost none of these measures will be done, except blockage of the foreigners intending to exploit. Talk is clear about a 70% bond haircut, which does not seem enough even though it is brutal. The biggest practical impediments to the Greek Economy are the austerity plan and the absent ability to devalue the currency. Every single austerity plan to date has been a failure, in every nation attempted. They result in worse economic slowdowns, greater job loss, broad cancelation of projects, reduced pension security, and much wider deficits. Yet they continue in a grand procession of ruin. One must wonder if ruin is the goal, so that another technocrat can be put in power, unelected and with allegiance only to the syndicate. Who selected Papademous and Monti?

The absent path to a currency devaluation hits as the central flaw of the common Euro region. The weakest cannot compete against the strongest. In time the strong nations refuse to provide the higher standard of living at their own domestic expense. The German standard of living has fallen badly, angering many of its citizens. The normal evolutionary path calls for a troubled nation to do debt restructure, to enact broad reforms, to devalue the currency, and to stimulate the economy. The path taken for two years has been to dance around the debt table. No action at all on devaluation, since removal from the Euro currency umbilical would mean enormous debt writeoffs for the major European banks. This is the same obstructive dynamic at work in the United States. Greece needs to go back to the Drachma, devalue it by 30% or more, and enjoy some stimulus. Their list of export items is not in great volume. The austerity budgets are the exact opposite of stimulus. Lunacy has taken root, like with an entire class of public contract workers must work for no pay. The power center of the big banks prevents solutions. So the next phase will be full of risk and intrigue, if not treachery.

LAYERS OF RISK

Big Bank losses: The big banks in Europe face staggering losses. The attempts to make a mere 35% bond loss haircut in past deals was so unworkable as to be laughable. They fooled nobody. Reality has entered the room, as a 70% writedown figure has been proposed on current bailout deals. The big banks are already reeling from credit portfolios damaged by property like home mortgage and commercial mortgage. They are hurt by sovereign debt generally, not just from Greece. The Italian and Spanish Govt debt losses will be higher in volume, lower in percentage loss. The big bank exposure extends also to private debt within the Greek Economy, like with mortgages and commercial loans. They are all at heavy risk. The Basel II rules have forced de-leveraging as a warmup process that weakened many banks. The big European banks should enter failure from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Contagion to Banks outside Europe: The interwoven nature of Western banking does not add to its strength, like in integrated plywood sinews, but rather exposes its weakness. The London banks own a huge amount of Southern Europe sovereign debt. The New York banks own a sizeable portion also. A recent conversation with a sturdy German banker revealed that Citigroup owns an enormous amount of debt in Greece, Italy, and Eastern Europe in the mortgage sector. Most will be written off with big losses. The amount of PIGS sovereign debt owned by banks in France is enormous, well detailed, but under-reported. The cross pollenation will come to the fore as the ripples are felt. The German banks own too much sovereign debt. The big banks outside Europe are at great risk, just like those throughout the Continent. Many non-European banks should enter failure from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Euro Central Bank: Like the US Federal Reserve, these two central banks have served as the buyer of last resort for toxic bonds that both nobody wants and have nearly worthless value. Their owner lords (think castles in London and Switzerland) must be pushing back hard. The new EuroCB head Mario Draghi at first stated a firm position of not wishing to buy Southern European sovereign bonds, since badly impaired. When the Italian and Spanish Govt Bond yields rose toward or past the 7% magic mark, he relented. The stability returned in the bond market, but at the high cost of further wrecking the EuroCB balance sheet. It is hard to know which is more ruined, loaded with toxic paper, the EuroCB or the USFed. Both in my view are wrecked entities and control towers. Neither can serve adequately as a central bank when acting like a proxy for the entire banking system. They must remove the bank reserves held as hostage from private banks. The major central banks should face severe insolvency from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Credit Default Swaps: The bond insurance market is even more corrupt than the mortgage market. At least the mortgage arena contained some hint of regulatory oversight. The derivative market has none at all. Some fine analysts like Chris Whalen stated two and three years ago that without the derivative trade, the US banks would have keeled over dead long ago. They took in huge fees on contracts whose legitimacy and effectiveness are unclear. The ISDA has issued rulings on bond debt default that seem corrupt to the core. The next round of Greece Govt Bond writedowns apparently will feature CDSwap insurance responses in the form of awards in exchange for bond ownership, the inherent asset swap. Like the SEC and CFTC, the ISDA is loaded with bankers from the everpresent Wall Street revolving door. They will serve the banks at the expense of the system and economy. The interwoven nature of Western banking does not add to its strength, but rather exposes its weakness. The claimed offset on derivative ownership is nonsense, as Bank A holds derivatives that cover Bank B, and vice versa. They do not cancel out for net neutral. Both banks are killed, neither able to aid the other. The payouts for Credit Default Swap contracts being enforced should cause tremendous additional damage to the entire financial system, from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Exposure of Profound Fraud again: The strain from any imposed default skein will expose the derivative market. The cast of counter-parties is too diverse. The obligations are too unclear. The nature of the contracts is too untested. The enforcement by the ISDA rulings are too subservient. Like with the mortgage sector, liquidations reveal the seriously putrid underbelly. With mortgages, no widespread liquidation of mortgage bonds could be done, since the process would reveal bond fraud to the extreme. Its mortgage contract fraud is in the open for full view. So patchwork was done, even nationalization of Fannie Mae and AIG under the USGovt wing. The fraud is contained supposedly, but without the basis of a solution. Hyper monetary inflation goes down a Black Hole. So also is the nature of the derivative market. Liquidations will reveal the seriously corrupted core of the business. After the recent MFGlobal, JPMorgan, and COMEX episode, one more log on the raging fraud bonfire. The system's foundation of integrity is burning. The CDSwap contract award process should expose profound fraud in the system from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Recapitalize domestic banking systems: The banking system has operated in the Western nations amidst deep insolvency for three years or more. When the Greek default is begun, that insolvency will be much worse. Some banks will fail. The dominos will fall. The impact will be understood quickly. The need to rebuild the banking system will be an obvious and very painful realization, but the volume will result in shock. The big banks serve as the core for the domestic credit engines, the machinery to pump credit into the many businesses. That engine is sputtering badly. Some measures will be done to enable new Euro Bonds to take senior position, but expect it to backfire since bond dealers and bond funds will resist the favored treatment and retreat. Several $trillion will be needed to recapitalize the banking systems, not just a few banks. With the dependence upon newly printed unbacked money, the banking systems should lose further integrity from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Debt Rating Agencies: Since the autumn months of 2008, the agencies have acted more responsibly. The Standard & Poors downgrade of the USGovt debt was a wakeup call of unprecedented manner. However, the Moodys and Fitch agencies did not follow suit. Worse, the S&P chief executive was forced out of office, probably by a Wall Street phone call, replaced by a Citigroup veteran. In the last several months to perhaps 18 months, the debt rating agencies have been doing their job reponsibly, but their focus is entirely on Europe. They have ignored the United States, even ignored the embattled insolvent US States. They are piling on with European sovereign downgrades, European bank downgrades, even European stability fund downgrades. Instead of putting the debt rating agencies at greater risk from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure, the pressure will be on them as a group to focus more attention on the USGovt and the US States. Their collective financial condition is equally bad as Greece.

Economies suffer from Austerity: The impact of every austerity plan is to put in place what appears to be a more rigid spending process. But the dependence of the domestic economies is so great upon the public sector for jobs and projects and grants and subsidies, that the damage is instant and deep. No austerity budget plan has resulted in improved finances in the first two years of emplacement. None! The economists seem blind to the effect. The politicians seem ignorant. The corporate leaders are frustrated. No solution exists for remedy short of a five year period. Many economies in the West should suffer even worse and more painful recessions from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Amplified Inflation Risk: All solutions proposed involve the disposition of new money, either from outright printing without backing or from grander fiscal deficits. The austerity plans result in worse deficits, thus worse pressure on inflation. Any banking system recapitalization would be the crown jewel of monetary inflation. Imagine the effect of $1 trillion or $2 trillion in recapped banks, only to find they require another $1 trillion several months later. The inflation impact could be enough to push the water level over the bunker banker walls. Those walls have prevented the staggering hyper monetary inflation from spilling over into Main Streets across the nation. The bank sector has enjoyed 98% of the bailout benefits. The public has been told to tighten belts and to eat cake. Look for the bank recapitalization project, if it occurs, to finally push the inflation process in such a way that price inflation hits the USEconomy in force. Refer to rising wages and rising prices, not just costs. Tremendous pressure should come on systemic price inflation from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Interest Rate Swap Risk: If price inflation rises in unexpected fashion, the pressure put on the USTreasury Bond market will be greater than any time in the last ten years. So far, the abuse of the Interest Rate Swap contract has provided outsized leverage in keeping down the USTBond yields generally, by creating artificial bond demand. The financial press is totally oblivious to this phenomenon. Investors do not flock to USTBond as safe haven. The Wall Street leverage machinery has created bond demand from the basement working overtime for over two years. The smoking gun was the 1Q2011 report on derivative growth by the Office of the Comptroller & Currency. It revealed $8 trillion in notional derivatives put on by Morgan Stanley alone. So much for investor bond demand and contradiction of the S&P downgrade of USGovt debt. What a clever tactic. However, the Greek Govt debt unraveling could place tremendous strain on the IRSwap device, even to expose it during a time of increased foreign creditor isolation. The US sovereign bond market inner circle hidden devices should be brought into the open from an imposed Greek Govt debt default and restructure. The Greek losses will strain the system to the hilt.

Unintended Consequence Risk: The last risk to cite is the risk of the unknown, the unexpected, that which cannot be properly planned. The potential unintended outcomes and pressures emanating from a comprehensive planned Greek Govt debt default defy description. In my view, it is like herding 100 cats freed from bondage on a truck in an open field. The Jackass loves cats, but never have they been captured in a yard when attempted. They jump fences, crawl under fences, disappear in holes under houses, even hide in car engines. They are fast and elusive, changing directions with extreme quickness and agility. So will be the consequences to a planned Greek demolition of their indebted edifices. The Powerz must realize the challenge that lies ahead, and look upon each with some trepidation.

GOLD & SILVER

The battle has been waged in the 1750 to 1800 price corridor for almost a full month. It is critically important. A smaller battle to overcome the 1650 mark was a success, thus making the Gold price recovery firm and recognized. As a solution is worked out in Greece, or the absence of one with another in a series of grand missteps, watch the Gold price cast a vote. The system's integrity lies in the balance. The pressure points are across the entire financial and economic systems. The solutions are elusive since the basic initial step of big bank liquidation is refused, too much damage to be doled to the banks that control the power. The zinger is the recapitalization of the banking system, an urgent need and requirement, the understood impact from the imposed Greek comprehensive solution. Expect more favored treatment to the banks. However, as they are put back on solvent feet, a process only possible with vast hyper monetary inflation directed specifically at the banking pillars, the retribution from within the system will possibly be the first serious price inflation leakover. For over three years, the monetary inflation leakover has been contained, to the detriment of the economy.

The anticipation of that systemic price inflation event could be seen in the Gold price. The direct response to the imposed Greek debt solution could be some sort of capitulation, a recognition that the Western financial and monetary system cannot be fixed. Any perception that bank system reconstruction would assure another powerful bout of price inflation as the heavy cost could be a major unintended consequence. The Gold price could explode past $2000 per ounce if that were to occur. If the planned demolition of the Greek Govt bond building does not go according to plan, look to the Gold price for a powerful upward response. The list of unintended consequences and collateral damage is very long indeed. The risk is staggering acute and not easily measured. Gold should serve as the effective pressure valve. Most every attempt to push down the Gold price in the last few weeks with yet more naked shorting has been thwarted and opposed by the Eastern Coalition, their new project.

home: Golden Jackass website
subscribe: Hat Trick Letter
Jim Willie CB, editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

From subscribers and readers:

At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

"Your monthly reports are at the top of my list for importance, nothing else coming close. You are the one resource I can NOT do without! You have helped me and countless others to successfully navigate the most treacherous times one can possibly imagine. Making life altering decisions during tough times means you must have all the information available with direct bearing on the decision. Jim Willie gives you ALL the needed information, a highly critical difference. You cant afford to be wrong in today's world."

(BrentT in North Carolina)

"You have warned over and over since Fall of 2009 that Europe would come apart and it sure looks like exactly that is happening. You have warned continually about the COMEX and now the entire CME seems to be unraveling. You must receive a lot of criticism regarding your analysis, trashing the man, without debate. Your work is appreciated. I do not care how politically incorrect or how impolite your style is. What is happening to our economy and financial system is neither politically correct or polite."

(DanC in Washington)

"The best money I spend. Your service is the biggest bang for the buck."

(DaveJ in Michigan)

"As the nation screams down the mountain out of control into the abyss, it is good to have a guide. Jim Willie helps to understand what is happening and more important, why. With that information, you can make the right decisions to protect yourself from the current apocalyptic catastrophe. Forget the MSM propaganda. Here is offered good in-depth actionable reports that are the most insightful and valuable."

(AlanS in New Mexico)

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at

HUI Gold Bugs Index – Big Picture Monthly View

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 04:17 AM PST

NFTRH175 took an extensive look at the HUI, ranging from a 15 minute (in-day, in-week) short-term management chart to a daily chart, a weekly chart and finally on out to the biggest – and most compelling of pictures – a this monthly chart.

The nearer time frames generally look okay, with some caveats; notably including the over bought, over loved state for the broad US market. These time frames must be managed on an ongoing basis, but throughout all of the ups and downs, euphoria and agony, there is and has been the monthly chart and its Cup & Handle target of 1000, which has been active since 2010.

Here is an excerpt of the final segment of the precious metals analysis:

Time again for the HUI monthly chart with Cup & Handle and measured upside target. To this point we have followed the '3 Snowmen (888)' because I think it is a cute way to keep HUI's huge upside potential on radar. But the target is actually more like 1000. If you are a gold stock bull – and please don't take my word for it, NFTRH is just one publication with its own viewpoints, among many and disciplined research should consider many different angles – then you probably find this big picture compelling. You view the Handle consolidation (if that is indeed what this is) as an opportunity to be
positioned for that unknowable time in the future that it may break upward.

An easy way to look at this is to put a mental 'STOP' just below the confluence of the Handle, the moving averages and the visual shaded support area. So how about this for a range of perspective on the HUI? 15 minutes all the way up to monthly.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm

Bix Weir: “SIlver Is More Precious Than Gold”

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 03:20 AM PST

from SGT:
SGT talks to Bix Weir of RoadToRoota.com about about the $6 TRILLION in seized Bonds, the Ben Fulford and David Wilcock information and the mounting evidence that there are stores of gold on the planet which have never been revealed, making SILVER far more rare and precious than the yellow metal. In Part 2 we discuss the very real possibility of a Spring 2012 financial CRASH – and Ron Paul restoring our Constitutional form of government once he's seated in the White House. Guess what?! The world is waking up and the idea of Liberty is more popular than ever.

Part One
Silver More Precious Than Gold – Are Fulford & Wilcock Correct?
SGT talks to Bix Weir of RoadtoRoota.com about the $6 TRILLION in seized Bonds, the Ben Fulford and David Wilcock information and the mounting evidence that there are stores of gold on the planet which have never been revealed, making SILVER far more rare and precious than the yellow metal. Guess what?! The world is waking up and the idea of Liberty is more popular than ever

Part Two
A Spring 2012 CRASH – and a Ron Paul White House
SGT talks to Bix Weir of RoadtoRoota.com about the very real possibility of a Spring 2012 financial CRASH. Bix is predicting that it could come in the March – May 2012 timeframe.

Bix also predicts that the good guys are working to ensure Ron Paul stays in the race and makes it all the to the White House to restore our Constitutional form of government. Guess what?! The world is waking up and the idea of Liberty is more popular than ever.

~TVR

British pound drops; losses limited, analysts say

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 02:59 AM PST

The British pound tumbled Wednesday, falling against the U.S. dollar to its lowest level in about a month and dropping against the euro, after minutes from the Bank of England's latest policy meeting showed some participants wanted to expand its bond-purchase program even more than the central bank did...

Read

MEDIA RELEASE - GOLD BULLION OR CASH VIDEO LAUNCHED TODAY …

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 01:57 AM PST

Gold to $8,890, Silver to $517 Says John Williams of Shadow Stats

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 01:45 AM PST

I think it is laughable when analysts go on television and claim that precious metals are in a bubble that is about to pop. Get out of this barbarous relic while you still can!

These same people claimed that gold at $800, $1,000 and $1,500 were tops as well. If these sages keep at [...]

Cheers or Jeers?

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 01:34 AM PST

Gold and silver prices headed lower this morning while platinum and palladium extended their Tuesday rally with fairly hefty additional gains. Gold retreated towards the $1,750 area while silver fell back to near the $34 level as profit-takers moved in following yesterday's Sino-Euro-news-induced euphoria.

Gold Prices ‘At Risk from New Greek Crisis’

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 01:28 AM PST

Gold prices hovered just below $1,760 per ounce during London's Wednesday morning trading, after a rally in Tuesday's US session saw gold gain 1.3%. Silver prices softened slightly but held above $34 per ounce.

This well-known energy stock just killed its dividend

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 12:31 AM PST

From The Dynamic Dividend:

Transocean Ltd. (RIG) has announced that it will not propose a dividend at its 2012 meeting of shareholders in May.

The provider of offshore contract drilling services proposed the reinstatement of its payout at least year's meeting. Shareholders approved the move, ending a nine-year dividend drought, and the company distributed $0.79 per share each of the last four quarters...

Read full article...

More on dividends:

Don't make this common dividend investing mistake

This beaten-up gold stock just approved a BIG dividend increase

Obama's new budget proposal is terrible news for dividend investors

Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1 - Turk

Posted: 22 Feb 2012 12:08 AM PST

Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1 - Turk

GoldMoney founder James Turk, believes, while one can't predict what the catalyst is going to be that will force gold and silver higher, the bull market remains intact

Posted: Wednesday , 22 Feb 2012

Download this interview GEOFF CANDY: Welcome to this week's edition of Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly podcast. Joining me on the line all the way from Spain is James Turk - he's the founder of GoldMoney. James after a sharp fall in December, gold prices have been recovering fairly nicely over the past month and a bit. What's been driving that, do you think?
JAMES TURK: Yea they bounced from the lows but the reality is that both gold and silver remain in a trading range. The peak in silver goes back to April of last year, the peak in gold goes back to the summer of last year, and since then we've been in this broad trading range. But the interesting this is that we're now back at the high of the trading range and after moving from $1520 at the end of December to early January up to around $1750. We're still around that $1730/$1725 area so that actually demonstrates in my mind a lot of strength in gold and silver doing basically the same thing, so there's a lot of strength in silver and I think this correction we've been in over the past several months in both metals is about to end and you're going to see much higher gold prices and silver prices as we work to the end of the first quarter.
GEOFF CANDY: I want to talk to you about that because a number of commentators have pointed out that the peak that we saw in September last year was driven predominantly by the US debt ceiling talks. Obviously aided and abetted by the crisis in Europe and a number of other factors, but there does seem to be a sense from some people now that perhaps what's going on in Europe is having less of an effect on gold than it perhaps should or would have done in previous crises and the next likely jump forward is potentially... it needs a catalyst of some sort and that catalyst is likely to come from the US.
JAMES TURK: Yes it's an interesting point because in this world of floating currencies they all bop up and down against each other depending on what's happening in any one country or compared to other countries. A couple of years ago the euro was strong and the US dollar was weak. This past year the dollar was strong and the euro was weak, but over that period of time both the dollar and the euro have been sinking relative to gold which I think is the more relative point. The problems in Europe have not been solved. The debt problems in the US have not been solved. Mr Obama just put to Congress a massive over $1tr deficit spending plan. This cannot go on forever. Governments seem to think that it can and central banks are trying to make it last for ever. The reality is, is all of this money printing, all of this debt is going to end up badly and in that kind of environment, gold and silver will both soar and that's what we're about to see here with the way the metals are trading. I think something quite spectacular is about ready to happen over the next few months.
GEOFF CANDY: Now you are on record calling significantly higher prices than the ones we have at the moment, what are you looking for at the moment to be a catalyst for higher prices, if such a catalyst were to happen?
JAMES TURK: You really can't predict what event or what catalyst will occur to cause the metals to move higher, it's just an ongoing bull market. You know my long-term forecast going back to an interview in Biarritz in 2003 when gold was about $350/oz was that sometime between 2013 and 2015 gold would be $8000/oz and I' sticking to that forecast. And that forecast is not based on crystal balls or anything of that nature, it's basically just mathematical that when you go into a financial bust, and one began in 2000, people prefer tangible assets over financial assets because in a financial bust a lot of promises that have been made are broken, and when those promises are broken, confidence in the system falls and people move to tangible assets because they want to own things like gold because gold doesn't have counterparty risk. We're still very much in this major trend and as the problems in Greece continue to unravel because I don't think this parliament bill that's been approved is going to have any long-term positive effect, and other problems in Europe - in Italy and Spain continue to unfold, and recently now the bond-raising agencies have marked the united kingdom for a possible downgrade which would take it from its AAA status. All of these cumulatively are providing reasons for people to move out of financial assets, to move into tangible assets, so I expect this trend to continue. But what event it's going to be you can't really predict that, you just have to play the bull trend, continue to accumulate the metals - I've been recommending a dollar cost averaging programme to do that and focus on much higher prices in the years ahead, as all these problems come to a head.
GEOFF CANDY: To argue the other side of that point though, there are commentators that say that the main reason for buying gold is, as you say, as a tangible asset. But it doesn't necessarily provide a yield and if we see a return to real interest rates, we're likely to see some fall off in investment in gold, and that's where a lot of the price action has come in, from the investment side, on the margins in the gold market and that if we do see a change in real interest rates people will see a decline in gold prices.
JAMES TURK: Yes, gold doesn't provide yield because it doesn't have counterparty risk. If you want to put your gold at risk and lend it to someone you can generate yield on that. So right now people don't want that counterparty risk because they don't know whether their gold is going to be returned or whether the euro's they haven't deposited in their bank is going to be returned, if the bank goes belly-up, or the purchasing power of the euros they put on deposit will be returned because of inflation as a result of all the quantitative easing and money printing that's going on around the world. So you can't really look at some of those "straw man" arguments against gold because they don't think they carry any weight. The more important thing is what's been actually happening in over the last 11 years - the gold price has risen in US dollar terms at an average annual rate of appreciation of 17%. Now have you been earning 17% on your dollar deposits or euro deposits every year? You haven't and so gold is going to become more and more attractive as people understand that gold is still undervalued and still very much useful, and you know, valuation is more important than price. They are different things - as long as an asset is undervalued you should continue to accumulate it and by all my historical measures, gold is still undervalued.
GEOFF CANDY: You talk about the financial systems going bust and those kinds of things - it's very much a case of "be careful what you wish for". How do you see the situation looking in a few years?
JAMES TURK: If you have gold you can weather the storm - that's the basic premise and what I'm looking at here is 5 000 years of history for gold. Gold preserves purchasing power over long periods of time. This experiment with FIAT currency, currency backed by nothing but government promises, is only 40 years old. That pales in comparison to a 5 000 year history of gold used as money. And what's more important is that it's quite clear from all of the imbalances and problems that we're seeing globally with FIAT currency, that this experiment is going horribly wrong. So when FIAT currencies collapse which is what I think will inevitably happen, and most governments and central banks do an about face and go back in the right direction toward sound money, FIAT currencies will indeed collapse if they continue down this road. And in that environment we're going to go back to gold eventually anyway. To think that 5 000 years of history of gold has disappeared just because governments say that gold is no longer money, is not very logical to make that kind of assumption, particularly given that gold still buys the same amount of crude oil that it does today as it did 50 years ago. Gold preserves purchasing power - that's what money is all about.
GEOFF CANDY: I take it then that you would be preferring gold bullion over gold equities?
JAMES TURK: Well they're two different things - in a portfolio you have investments where you put your money at risk to generate some kind of return, and you also have liquidity which is after selling an investment you've got your cash, and you hold onto your cash until you're ready to purchase a consumer good or make another investment. So when you're talking about gold bullion you're talking about money, in other words the liquidity part of your portfolio. When you're talking about mining stocks you are talking about the investment part of your portfolio. They're two different things. Everybody needs money, but not everybody is willing to make an investment, be it in mining stocks or any other kind of stock for that matter. But generally speaking here, the mining stocks have been underperforming gold but I think that's about ready to change. If you look at the cash flow that's been generated by some of the mining companies, and if you also look at the increase in dividends that have been coming as a result of this increase in cash flow, you can see that the mining companies here are basically pretty cheap by their historical comparisons. And markets don't like undervaluation, so my expectation is that eventually the mining stocks are going to go back into the more customary outperformance relative to bullion itself. So if I'm right about bullion this year, I think the mining stocks are probably going to even do better than bullion.
GEOFF CANDY: Moving quickly from gold to silver, clearly the price has been performing as well. What do you make of that in comparison to gold?
JAMES TURK: Well my long-term view is that I've always been more bullish on silver than I have been on gold and the reason is that even though gold is cheap, silver is even cheaper than gold. The ratio is still in the 50s when the historical ratio is 16 ounces of silver equal to one ounce of gold, and I expect before this bull market is over, we're going to get down toward that area. But the problem with silver is that it's much more volatile than gold. Last year the ratio was at 31 and a few months later it was at 57/58. That volatility is not for everybody, but if you can handle the volatility - own some silver. My general recommendation is that two-thirds gold, one-third silver and by the time this bull market is over, the silver component of your portfolio will have a higher currency value than the gold component of your portfolio because of the outperformance as a result of the decline in the gold-silver ratio.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...tail&id=92730

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 02/22/12

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 11:36 PM PST

Nice move yesterday as convergence of news lifted the metals complex. Again at the $1,755 level. Must clear this level for an assault of the $1,800 number. The Dow touched 13,000 and backed off. This is to be expected, as a big figure level normally takes a few attempts to clear. As a trader flat would be my call, with a re-entry albeit maybe higher, if $1,755 is taken out and the equities resume their upward momentum.

The Fear of Gold

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 11:18 PM PST

from DollarVigilante.com:

I was on a panel at the recent California Investment Conference in Palm Springs and the question was asked, "What percentage of your portfolio should be in gold bullion?"

The first panelist answered 20%. The second panelist said, up to 30%. Then it came to me.

"I have no problem with someone having 100% of their portfolio in gold," I stated bluntly. Many in the crowd laughed. Their laughter confused me. What's so funny about that, I thought?

I went on, "I think it's weird that people find my answer weird."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

By 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong on their Tuesday afternoon, gold was up about seven dollars...and from there until shortly before the Comex opened in New York, the gold price gave back about half of that gain...such as it was.

But the moment that trading began in New York, it was a whole new ball game. In four separate steps, gold rose another twenty dollars...and closed virtually on its high of the day.

Gold closed at $1,760.30 spot...up $26.20 from Monday's close. Net volume, which was pretty chunky around the London open...checked in around 188,000 contracts. A bunch of that volume was from Monday, so it wasn't as heavy as it seemed, but heavy enough nonetheless.

As I pointed out in 'The Wrap' in yesterday's column, the rally going into the London open on their Tuesday morning ran into some real resistance...and it's obvious that the $20 rally in New York ran into heavy resistance as well.

It was pretty much the same price action in silver. Nothing much happened until shortly before 2:00 p.m. in Hong Kong on their Tuesday afternoon. The subsequent rally ran into a lot of resistance...and every penny of those gains...and a few cents more...disappeared by 12:30 p.m. in London.

Then, in a manner very similar to gold, away silver went to the upside when the Comex opened less than an hour later. The high of the day [$34.58 spot] came moments before the Comex trading day ended at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. Silver then got sold off about two bits into the close.

Silver finished the Tuesday trading day at $34.35 spot...up 74 cents. Net volume [after removing the roll-overs and Monday's trading volume] was around 36,000 contracts. I was expecting a much higher volume number than that...and was happy that it was 'only' that much.

The dollar index spent Tuesday in a wild 40 basis point trading range around the 79.00 mark...which is exactly what it was doing when I wrote about it twenty-four hours ago as well.

The gold stocks gapped up...and then added to their gains for the next hour or so. But by 11:00 a.m. Eastern..more or less...they traded basically sideways in a very tight range, despite what the gold price did after that. The HUI finished up 3.08% on the day.

It almost goes without saying that the silver stocks put in a robust performance as well...helped along immensely by the Hecla Mining announcement of silver-linked dividends. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 3.35%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 24 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday.

The GLD ETF showed a small increase yesterday as an authorized participant shipped in 9,718 troy ounces. But it was a different story over at the SLV ETF yesterday, as 680,164 ounce were reported withdrawn.

Obviously the silver was more desperately needed elsewhere, as there was nothing in the price activity during the last two or three trading days that would warrant such a withdrawal. Since February 9th, there has been 4.1 million ounces of silver withdrawn from SLV, even though the silver price has basically traded sideways for the last month, at just under $34 the ounce.

The U.S. Mint started off the week with a sales report...but a very small one. They sold 1,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 115,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date sales are pretty pathetic...16,000 ounce of gold eagles...4,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 950,000 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 930,708 ounces of silver on Friday...and shipped 457,876 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.

I have slightly fewer stories today than I did yesterday, which suits me just fine...and you as well, I would suspect.

Since February 9th, there has been 4.1 million ounces of silver withdrawn from SLV, even though the silver price has basically traded sideways for the last month.

Nick Barisheff: Bullion Management Group Interview. Rick Rule - Greek Bailout and What it Means for Gold. Nigel Farage - Catastrophe Imminent & Gold to Break $2,500.

¤ Critical Reads

Some Doubt a Settlement Will End Mortgage Ills

Even as government officials prepare to unveil new standards this week for how banks treat millions of Americans facing foreclosure, housing advocates and homeowners are skeptical the rules will be able to do something past efforts have not: provide a beleaguered borrower with one individual to help them navigate the mortgage maze.

While the entire process of seeking a mortgage modification is complicated and time-consuming, few elements are as maddening as the inability to get through to a representative at the bank, or being asked for the same documents again and again.

So the promise of a single point of contact has emerged as a crucial element in the much-ballyhooed $26 billion settlement reached earlier this month involving state attorneys general, the federal government and the five biggest mortgage servicers. These rules will apply nationwide and come with commitments of strong enforcement by federal and state authorities, but they carry a familiar ring for those experienced in the foreclosure process.

This story was in the Monday edition of The New York Times...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

As Dow Passes 13,000 In Nominal Terms, Here Is The "Real" Picture

Three charts that perhaps will calm the nominal euphoria as Dow 13,000 screams across the screens. Since May 2008, the Dow is unchanged in price and down 50% in 'real' gold terms. The picture is just as disheartening from the start of 2011 and 2012. Next stop Dow 20,000 and Gold 20,000?

From May 2008, the Dow priced in Gold is down 50% while we have nominally recovered unchanged. From the start of 2011. The Dow is up 11.35% while in real terms it is down 12.4%...and from the beginning of this year, the Dow is up 4.8% while in gold 'real' terms, it is down 4.25%.

This short zerohedge.com piece from yesterday is another Phil Barlett offering. The charts are certainly worth the trip...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Under Volcker, Old Dividing Line in Banks May Return

The Volcker Rule, and its limitations on bank trading, may have the unintended effect of dividing the world back into investment banks and commercial banks. The unusual twist here is that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley may end up stuck on the wrong side of the fence, treated under the law as commercial banks instead of the investment banks they once were.

The backdrop to this issue is that it is increasingly clear that banks are simply unable to make as much money from proprietary and other trading businesses as they did before the financial crisis. Take Goldman Sachs. In 2007, Goldman had revenue of $7.6 billion from traditional investment banking, but $31.2 billion in revenue from trading-related operations. Last year, Goldman had just $17.3 billion in revenue related to trading operations.

This is a trend likely to accelerate. Under the Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul, derivatives are to be traded on central clearing agencies rather than between investment banks as before the financial crisis. Heightened bank capital requirements prevent warehousing large amounts of securities and increase the cost of financing. Then there is the Volcker Rule, which is likely to substantially reduce much of the banks' profits from their trading businesses.

This is the third story in a row from The New York Times...and the third in a row from Phil Barlett. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

As US Debt To GDP Passes 101%, The Global Debt Ponzi Enters Its Final Stages

Yesterday, without much fanfare, US debt to GDP ratio hit 101% with the latest issuance of $32 billion in 2 Year Bonds. If the moment when this ratio went from double to triple digits is still fresh in readers minds, is because it is: total debt hit and surpassed the most recently revised Q4 GDP on January 30, or just three weeks ago.

Said otherwise, it has taken the US 21 days to add a full percentage point to this most critical of debt sustainability ratios: but fear not, with just under $1 trillion in new debt issuance on deck in the next 9 months, we will be at 110% in no time.

This short piece was posted over at zerohedge.com yesterday...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to my attention. It's worth the read...and the graphs are great. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

New Bailout Is a Reprieve for Greece, but Doubts Persist

Greece may have dodged a default with its last-minute bailout deal, but longer-term doubts over its ability to repay its staggering debts remain, raising questions about whether even more rescue money will eventually be needed.

European leaders were to sign off on Greece's second bailout of about 130 billion euros ($172 billion) at their summit meeting in Brussels next week — subject to Greece's taking immediate steps to put into effect the deep structural changes that they agreed to.

Greece must also persuade, if not actually force, its private sector bondholders to accept a higher-than-expected loss of more than 70 percent on their holdings to reduce Greece's debt stock by the targeted amount of 100 billion euros.

This is another Phil Barlett offering from The New York Times yesterday...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

How Goldman Sachs Helped Mask Greece's Debt

Nick Dunbar, author of The Devil's Derivatives, reveals how the country turned to investment bank Goldman Sachs for help getting around the deficit rules in order to join the Eurozone.

In his report for BBC's Newsnight, some of those who did the deal, talk publicly for the first time.

This 10-minute video was posted over at bbc.co.uk website on Monday. I thank reader 'T. Unger' for sending this my way...and it's well worth watching. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

A Political Establishment in Freefall: Greece Lurches to Left Amid Radical Austerity

There are many uncertainties in Greece today: whether the country can remain in the euro zone, whether the €130 billion ($171.8 billion) second bailout package will sufficiently reduce the insolvent country's staggering debt load, and whether the Greeks will ever implement the reforms their international creditors are demanding of them. At the moment, only one thing seems predictable: that nothing will remain the same. "Everything is changing, and everything is frightening," writes the newspaper Kathimerini.

Only with great difficulty was the transitional government of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos able to commit last week to the reforms that the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had demanded -- and its commitment came at a high political price. The nationalist right-wing Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) withdrew from the government, and the heads of the two large

Rick Rule - Greek Bailout and What it Means for Gold

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 09:10 PM PST

Rick Rule - Greek Bailout and What it Means for Gold

Here's another blog that Eric King sent my way yesterday. It's posted over at the KWN website as well...and the link to that is here.

As Dow Passes 13,000 In Nominal Terms, Here Is The "Real" Picture

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 09:10 PM PST

As Dow Passes 13,000 In Nominal Terms, Here Is The "Real" Picture

Trading Silver with Options to Earn 127% in 4 Months

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 09:01 PM PST

Soaring investment demand, continued industrial use, a growing supply shortage, and falling ore quality all signal a sharply bullish outlook for the "poor man's precious metal." So, how can you position yourself to profit from silver's coming advance without exposing yourself to the excessive risk?

Silver Wheaton CEO: “Demand for Silver Exploding”

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 08:52 PM PST

From Jim Puplava and Financial Sense:

Randy Smallwood: Demand for Silver Exploding; Gold/Silver Ratio Favors Silver

Jim is pleased to welcome back Silver Wheaton CEO Randy Smallwood this week. Randy believes that investor demand is the key to the silver story, and the gold/silver ratio will shift to favor silver. In terms of Silver Wheaton, Randy expects growth in silver production to advance by 70% and the dividend payout to triple by the fourth quarter of this year.

Much More @ FinancialSense.com

Silver Update: “Greece or Iceland”

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 08:43 PM PST

from BrotherJohnF:
BJF examines metals charts, and compares Greece to Iceland in the 2.21.12 Silver Update.

Got Physical ?

~TVR

President’s Are Not Re-Elected With A Depression On Their Watch

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 08:32 PM PST

We think Obama will be an exception. He has a 1$ Billion in a political war chest for re-election. Plus, anyone receiving government aid, votes for a food stamp president. In our view more then 55% of the USA is not working right now and its going worse. Socialism and communism flourish in bad times.

Hoover in a 1932 election speech and a "Hoover Wagon" pulled by horses not a motor.

"Herbert Hoover was a businessman trying to retain free markets and capitalism in a depression. Things were so bad with no public safety nets, he was voted out and FDR arrived with the New Deal."

'Although Hoover had come to detest the presidency, he agreed to run again in 1932, not only as a matter of pride, but also because he feared that no other likely Republican candidate would deal with the depression without resorting to what Hoover considered dangerously radical measures."

"Hoover was nominated by the Republicans for a second term. He had originally planned to make only one or two major speeches, and to leave the rest of the campaigning to proxies, but when polls showed the entire Republican ticket facing a resounding defeat at the polls, Hoover agreed to an expanded schedule of public addresses. In his nine major radio addresses Hoover primarily defended his administration and his philosophy. The apologetic approach did not allow Hoover to refute Democratic Party nominee Franklin Roosevelt's charge that he was personally responsible for the depression."

"In his campaign trips around the country, Hoover was faced with perhaps the most hostile crowds of any sitting president. Besides having his train and motorcades pelted with eggs and rotten fruit, he was often heckled while speaking, and on several occasions, the Secret Service halted attempts to kill Hoover by disgruntled citizens, including capturing one man nearing Hoover carrying sticks of dynamite, and another already having removed several spikes from the rails in front of the President's train. He lost the election by a huge margin, winning only six out of 48 states."

"Hoover suffered a large defeat at the election, obtaining 39.7% of the popular vote to Roosevelt's 57.4%. Hoover's popular vote was reduced by -26% from his result in the 1928 election. In the electoral college he carried only Pennsylvania, Delaware, and four other Northeast states to lose 59–472. The Democrats also extended their control over the U.S. House and gained control of the U.S. Senate." -Wikopedia Text & Photos

"After the election, Hoover requested that Roosevelt retain the Gold standard as the basis of the US currency, and continue many of the Hoover Administration's economic policies. Roosevelt refused." Meanwhile, with drought, dust storms and manipulated crop prices, farmers went broke. -Editor

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Who's Buying Gold in China?

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 06:53 PM PST

China's massive trade surplus is fast shrinking, however. The rate of foreign-currency hoarding is slowing right alongside, but its gold imports just overtook domestic mine output for the year as a whole.

Links 2/22/12

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 06:45 PM PST

Are Pets Psychic? A Cambridge Scientist Believes So Wake Up World. I'm not impressed by the science, but the stories are still nice.

Kim Dotcom wins bail in fight against U.S. extradition Reuters (hat tip Lambert)

Facebook's nudity and violence guidelines are laid bare Guardian (hat tip reader John L)

Secretive Navy SEALs take starring role in new film Yahoo. Lambert: Wow! How secretive is that! Me: They must be having trouble with recruiting.

Steve McQueen blames US fear of sex for Michael Fassbender's Oscars snub Guardian (hat tip reader John L)

Midwest Farmland Prices Update for the Year 2011 Big Picture Agriculture

China's Flash PMI remains weak MacroBusiness

Greece races to meet bail-out demands Financial Times

Greece Bailout 2.0 BNN. Our Marshall Auerback gives a useful overview.

Standby for the third Greek bailout Bill Mitchell

Greek debt accord hostage to political passions Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Photo Gallery: Germans Go Nuts at Carnival Der Spiegel (hat tip furzy mouse)

Experts Say Iran Attack Is Irrational, Yet Hawks Are Winning the Debate Daily Beast (hat tip reader May S)

Iraq: This Year's Official Executions Already Surpass 2011′s AntiWar (hat tip reader May S)

The American Century Is Over—Good Riddance The Chronicle (hat tip reader May S)

THE EXILED'S FREE CAMPAIGN ADVICE FOR MITT ROMNEY: "BAPTIZE AYN RAND"

The Tea Party's war on mass transit Salon (hat tip reader May S). From last week, still relevant.

Obama Offers to Cut Corporate Tax Rate to 28% New York Times

EXCLUSIVE: The Memo that Larry Summers Didn't Want Obama to See Noam Scheiber, The New Republic

Justice Kagan sides with the Right on Miranda Glenn Greenwald

We need to know who funds these thinktank lobbyists Guardian (hat tip reader May S)

"No unemployed need apply" McClatchy (hat tip Lambert)

Has America Lost its Drive? Part 2 Angry Bear

National Mortgage…Fiasco? The Investigative Fund

Legal Fees Mount at Fannie and Freddie Gretchen Morgenson, New York Times

Case collapse hits efforts to curb bribery Financial Times. No wonder Lanny Breuer keeps saying it is tough to prosecute executives. He sucks at it.

Under Volcker, Old Dividing Line in Banks May Return New York Times (hat tip reader Michael C)

Creepy model watch mathbabe

Antidote du jour:

Ben Subletts Lost Gold Mine

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 05:33 PM PST

Sonofthesouth

Will Expiration of Tax Break Render Much of Mortgage Settlement Moot?

Posted: 21 Feb 2012 05:25 PM PST

Even though the mortgage settlement deal was without a doubt massively lawyered from the bank end, and should have received similar levels of scrutiny from the Federal and state officials, a major fly in the ointment may have been overlooked. The tax rule allowing a reduction in mortgage debt not to be counted as income expires at the end of this year. As the Seattle Times explains (hat tip Lisa Epstein):

Before 2007, all cancellations of debt by creditors — whether on auto loans, personal loans or mortgages — were treated as taxable events under the federal tax code. If you owed $200,000, but paid off only $150,000 through an agreement with the lender, the $50,000 difference would be ordinary income, taxable at regular rates.

Under the debt-relief law for qualified homeowners, you can avoid taxation on forgiven mortgage amounts up to $2 million if married filing jointly, or $1 million for single filers. To be eligible, the debt must be canceled by a lender in connection with a mortgage restructuring, short sale, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure or foreclosure. The transaction must be completed no later than Dec. 31…

Picture this scenario: You negotiate for months with your lender, realty agents and potential buyers. Finally you pull together a short-sale package calling for the bank to forgive $100,000. But the deal runs into hitches and doesn't go to closing until after the Dec. 31 expiration date. Now your house is gone, your credit is shot, you're looking for a place to rent, and the IRS demands taxes on your phantom "gain" of $100,000 on the sale.

The Seattle Times article estimates the odds of renewal of this program at less than 50%, since Republicans claim a two-year extension would cost $2.7 billion and would help deadbeats.

Consider how this interacts with the mortgage settlement deal. $10 billion of the total headline amount of $25 billion is to come from mortgage mods, which the Administration expects to come to a much bigger number in actual value, since banks are expected to get a credit of only 50% for mods of securitized mortgages. Since the Administration estimates that 85% of the mods would be on mortgages not on bank balance sheets, that would give a total value of $18-$19 billion. Another "up to $7 billion" is for "forbearance of principal for unemployed borrowers, anti-blight measures, short sales, and transition assistance."

Look at the timetable. The mortgage deal is supposed to be finalized by the end of the month and submitted to court for approval by a Federal judge. We have been told the great unwashed public won't see the actual terms prior to its submission. Given that various press leaks have indicated that some items are less nailed down than the officialdom would have your believe, there is good reason to think the court filing will come after the planned date of the end of this month.

Let's assume the filing is made by the Ides of March. Since there is not a precedent for this sort of deal, I would hope the judge would allow for an adequate amount of time for interested parties to submit amicus briefs on the filing. The Administration, of course, will press for fast track approval. Let's assume 60 days from a mid March filing, so mid May approval. The banks are given three years to accomplish the required principal mods, with 75% to take place in the first two years. Let's assume the other $7 billion is on the same timetable.

If the banks are to be on track for their 75% in two years, you could expect them to do 37.5% in the first year. That's actually likely to be generous, since they'd be ramping up in the first year, plus it will take time to get any mod or short sale done (the article said that short sales take four to twelve months).

Take (7.5 months/12 months)N x 37.5% and you get less than 25%. So the bank are likely to be at the very best a bit over 20% of the way though their required mods and other forms of relief, and given start-up and lead time factors, may be well below even that level.

What happens as of December 31? What borrowers will remain interested in short sales and principal mods if they will be hit with large tax bills? The benefit of the mod will take place over time, but the adverse tax consequences will be immediate.

With the old tax rules in place, foreclosure is likely to wind up being the least bad of poor choices for most underwater borrowers who are under financial stress. Even if they would like to reduce the damage to their credit record via a short sale, the tax consequences may make that unaffordable.

And what does this mean for the banks? A substantial portion of the value of the settlement was to come in the form of mortgage mods and short sales. Even though the banks are supposed to be liable for the dollar amount in the settlement, what happens if they can legitimately argue that demand for principal mods and short sales has evaporated thanks to the expiration of tax relief? Is there any penalty or Plan B in the deal if the banks fail to produce the required level of mortgage modifications? I have a sneaking suspicion that this scenario is not reflected in the pact, and it gives the banks a perfect excuse for underperforming on an agreement that was already badly skewed in their favor.