saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Building A Permanent ETF Portfolio, Part II
- Moolman: Silver Outperforming the Gold Fractal?
- The Bullish Case For Aluminum Stocks
- Examining MidCap Core ETF Choices
- Bonus Bloodbath as European Banker Backlash Continues
- A controlled retreat by central banks in the gold market isnt nearly enough
- Davies sees new interest in gold, fair value at $4,000
- Margin Requirements Lowered for Gold & Silver
- Gold Prices Driven Higher by Europe and China: Greg Weldon and Grant Williams
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 02/10/12
- Rant Topic: Canadian Bullion Storage IRA Update
- How Bull Markets Evolve into Bubbles
- On Borrowed Time & Money
- Gold Prices Fall after ‘Weak’ Greek Reforms Rejected
- Hayek on Money: let the people choose
- Silver Forecast: Silver Premium Update
- The real story on yesterday's "historic" mortgage fraud settlement
- A New Reason Gold Stocks Will Soar
- Buffett: ‘Right To Be Fearful,’ Favors Stocks
- Ted Butler: Enough is Enough
- A 'controlled retreat' by central banks in the gold market isn't nearly enough
- Buffett cautions against bonds and gold
- Diamond prices might outpace gold as demand rises
- Silver Update: “Metals Margins”
- The Gospel of Gold According to Peter: Peter Grandich
- Martin Armstrong on metals manipulation
- Abandoning The Dollar For Gold
- Gold and Silver in 63 languages
- Pennsylvanias Ice Mine And the Lost Silver
- Dangerous Times Ahead
| Building A Permanent ETF Portfolio, Part II Posted: 10 Feb 2012 04:38 AM PST By Scott's Investments: Earlier this week I proposed a 14 ETF portfolio intended to replicate the popular Permanent Portfolio mutual fund, PRPFX. My original 14 ETF portfolio was intended to replicate PRPFX as closely as possible using liquid ETFs. The 14 positions could realistically be reduced to 8 while still maintaining a high correlation to the original 14 ETF portfolio. The original 14 ETFs are listed below:
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| Moolman: Silver Outperforming the Gold Fractal? Posted: 10 Feb 2012 04:04 AM PST by Hubert Moolman, SilverSeek.com: Below, is an extract of my Silver Premium Update for 25 January 2012: Since my last silver articles (here and here), the silver chart has been following the patterns, I have been tracking, quite nicely. Below is an updated version of the gold vs. silver fractal:
I have highlighted the patterns (marked 1 to 10) on gold and silver to illustrate how they are similar. It seems that silver is now just past point 12, and it has broken out at the blue downtrend line. If it follows the gold pattern exactly, it will move along in the channel formed by the two brown lines, just like gold did. If this happens, we could still wait a long time before the $50 level is challenged. Read More @ SilverSeek.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Bullish Case For Aluminum Stocks Posted: 10 Feb 2012 03:59 AM PST By Sammy Pollack: The price of aluminum has been under pressure for a myriad of reasons. Here are the most important.
The chart below shows the price of Aluminum over the past year. The leading producers of Aluminum have tracked the price very closely. Alcoa (AA) 1-year chart Rio Tinto (RIO) 1-year chart Century Aluminum (CENX) 1-year chart Other ALuminum producers with similar charts are Aluminum Corp of China (ACH), Alumina Ltd (AWC), and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU). While headwinds remain, there are reasons to believe that Aluminum prices may have turned a corner. Europe The European situation appears to be stabilizing. Proof of this is the recent rally in the European stock indices. Over the past 3 months, Germany's DAX index is up over 16%. While Europe Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Examining MidCap Core ETF Choices Posted: 10 Feb 2012 03:44 AM PST By Jon Peter: This discussion compares recent year performance of some mainstream well known Mid Cap Core ETFs, as well as the lesser known, lightly traded offerings. We chose the last 4 years as a convenient timeframe for comparison which represents a volatile period for comparison of these MidCap ETF funds' performance. These funds being "Core" Mid Cap slices of the market, will have holdings that exhibit characteristics and holdings of both "Value" and "Growth" companies. This period of course included the 2008 stock market meltdown bust, right through recovery of the full 2009's risk on rally - to the more recent choppiness of 2010 and 2011. From the data table we can readily see the effects of wealth destruction and the eventual recovery in performance for these selected Mid Cap Core ETFs. Some highlights and points worth mentioning about the funds include:
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| Bonus Bloodbath as European Banker Backlash Continues Posted: 10 Feb 2012 03:04 AM PST Bonuses, which first caused widespread consternation in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, have come to the forefront of the debate in Europe again in recent months... Read | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A controlled retreat by central banks in the gold market isnt nearly enough Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:41 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Davies sees new interest in gold, fair value at $4,000 Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:38 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin Requirements Lowered for Gold & Silver Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:36 AM PST The fundamental View | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Prices Driven Higher by Europe and China: Greg Weldon and Grant Williams Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:06 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 02/10/12 Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:04 AM PST Greeks appeared to ratify their deal, but Europe said not so fast. We want more than a letter of intent. We need the Greek parliament to ratify, and guarantee that the deal stands after the Greek elections in April. and by the way you need to find another $400mm in cuts. Still believe a deal will be ratified. In the interim, the markets are softer in line with equity weakness. A lot of news today, which could create a volatile market. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rant Topic: Canadian Bullion Storage IRA Update Posted: 10 Feb 2012 01:56 AM PST Andy Hoffman | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How Bull Markets Evolve into Bubbles Posted: 10 Feb 2012 01:41 AM PST The Daily Gold | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Feb 2012 01:21 AM PST Spot precious metals dealings opened on the weak side with all four principal metals that we track losing more than 1.2% and up to 2.1% percent. Spot gold was down nearly $25 at $1,704 per ounce while silver was bid near $33.25, down 60 more than cents. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Prices Fall after ‘Weak’ Greek Reforms Rejected Posted: 10 Feb 2012 01:04 AM PST Gold prices were heading for their second weekly fall Friday lunchtime in London, as they drifted down towards $1,700 per ounce following European ministers' rejection yesterday of the latest austerity proposals from Greece. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hayek on Money: let the people choose Posted: 10 Feb 2012 12:45 AM PST "With the exception only of the 200-year period of the gold standard (1714 to 1914 in Britain), practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money in order to ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Forecast: Silver Premium Update Posted: 10 Feb 2012 12:30 AM PST Silver Forecast: Is Silver Outperforming The Gold Fractal? Below, is an extract of my Silver Premium Update for 25 January 2012: Since my last silver articles (here and here), the silver chart has been following the patterns, I have been tracking, quite nicely. Below is an updated version of the gold vs. silver fractal: I [...]  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The real story on yesterday's "historic" mortgage fraud settlement Posted: 09 Feb 2012 11:58 PM PST From Washington's Blog: The 50-state settlement with the banks (Oklahoma didn't sign, but supports letting the banks go scot-free) over mortgage fraud is a stealth bank bailout, according to many top observers. This is par for the course... All of Obama's previous "mortgage relief" programs have really been stealth bank bailouts which screwed the homeowner. For example... Read full article... More on fraud: Controversial post: These big lies could cause the dollar to fail "Vaporized": The MF Global scandal just got much, much worse NYT reveals Obama administration is allowing the big banks to repeatedly break the law | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A New Reason Gold Stocks Will Soar Posted: 09 Feb 2012 10:57 PM PST By Jeff Clark, Casey Research There are a number of reasons why many of us believe gold stocks will shoot for the moon before this bull market is over – they've done so many times in the past… the gold price still has a long way to climb… and producers are generating record revenue and profits. But I think there's another reason why gold stocks will soar – one that hasn't dawned on many in the industry yet. The premise for my theory first lies in how gold itself is viewed. Some investors see gold as strictly a commodity or the infamous "barbarous relic." This group sees no compelling reason to buy the metal and so own little to none. Others view it as a play on a rising asset or because of supply and demand imbalances; they buy while those reasons are positive and sell when they turn negative. Still others view gold as a store of value, an alternative currency, or a hedge against inflation; they tend to buy and hold. Ask yourself why you own gold. Is it because it's just another asset that offers diversification? Are you buying because it's going up and someone like Doug Casey thinks it will continue doing so? Or is it due to a genuine concern about the dilution of your currency, both now and in the future? What's interesting to note is the shift in the number of investors wanting exposure to gold. Many who ignored it a decade ago are now buying. Those who started buying, say, five years ago, continue purchasing it today in spite of paying twice what they paid then. Slowly but surely, it's becoming more important to more people. To wit, increasing numbers of investors are viewing gold as a must-own asset. So, what happens when it becomes a must-own asset to a substantial majority instead of a small minority? Sure, the price will rise, probably parabolically, but putting aside speculation on the price of gold for now, have you thought about what happens if you have trouble finding any actual, physical gold to buy? I think what many bullion dealers warned of regarding supply in last month's BIG GOLD could come true. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin insisted that the bullion market "will ultimately be defined by complete lack of available supply." Border Gold's Michael Levy cautioned, "If an overwhelming loss of confidence in the US unfolds, the demand for physical gold and silver will far outweigh all known inventories." And Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com warned that if shortages develop, "physical bullion coins and bars might become unobtainable regardless of price." Here's a trend to consider. The following chart shows the growth in the world's population vs. the total supply of gold from around the world. By this I mean new supply from mines, not the existing holdings of refined gold of various sorts held by governments, institutions, and individuals around the world. Attachment 15366 The population of planet Earth has grown roughly 15% just since the year 2000, while the new supply of gold from all sources (mining, scrap, de-hedging) has fallen 4.2%. The rate of growth in the world's population last year was 1.1%; while this is roughly similar to the increase in annual mine production for 2011, the trend right now is clearly for the growth in population to surpass the global supply of gold coming to market. At the same time, demand keeps growing. China imported 3.3 million ounces of gold last November – and total global mining production outside China is just 6.4 million ounces per month. Gold bullion held by the world's central banks is at a six-year high – but it's roughly 15% below the amount they held in 1980 and has fallen in half as a percent of their total reserves. Silver supply and demand paints an even starker picture: last year, for the first time in history, sales of silver Eagle and Maple Leaf coins surpassed domestic production in both the US and Canada. Throw in the fact that by most estimates less than 5% of the US population owns any gold or silver and you can see how precarious the situation is. A supply squeeze is not out of the question – rather it is coming to look more and more likely with each passing month. This is great for gold owners and speculators, but it has further implications: As increasing numbers of people view gold as a must-own asset, and as supply is not keeping up with demand, where is the next logical place for investors to turn to get exposure? Gold stocks. Imagine the plight of the mainstream investor who calls a bullion dealer and is told they have no inventory and don't know when they'll get any. Picture those with wealth finally becoming convinced they must own precious metals and being informed they'll have to put their name on a waiting list. Imagine a pension fund or other institutional investor scrambling to get more metal for their fund and being advised the amount they want is "currently unavailable." Mining equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand. It's already happening on a small scale. Don Coxe, the Strategy Advisor to BMO Financial Group and consistently named one of top portfolio strategists in the world, stated that, "Gold has in the past decade evolved from being a curiosity, to a speculative investment, to a sound and necessary investment." He then urged investors to "emphasize the miners at the expense of the bullion ETFs." David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, wrote, "If we accept the premise that gold is acting like a currency, in a world where central banks in many countries are bent on depreciating their own paper money, one could conclude that bullion will rally against all these units. Gold miners offer an attractive way to play this bullion rally. Because input costs tend to be heavily concentrated in the early years of a rally, history has shown that gold miners' shares tend to dramatically outperform bullion in the later stages of a gold bull market." And it won't be just investors buying stocks; sovereign wealth funds will buy entire companies. China proposed to buy Jaguar Mining in November – a producer that can barely turn a profit – for a 74% premium, double the typical amount. China National Gold Group purchased five gold mining companies over the past four years, spending almost a half billion dollars to do so. Then there was this from Mineweb last week: "A consortium of Indian companies led by Steel Authority of India has turned its sights to gold and copper exploration." And this: "Afghanistan has now invited bids to develop gold mines in the provinces of Badakhshan and Ghazni…" Keep in mind that the market cap of gold stocks is small – Apple and Exxon Mobil are each bigger than the entire gold sector. The boring water-utilities industry is almost three times larger. The sometimes-hated life insurance industry is more than 11 times bigger. Meanwhile, most institutional investors are underweight gold and gold stocks, if they own them at all. The average pension fund devotes approximately 0.15% of its assets to gold stocks; doubling its holdings – still just one-third of one percent – would represent $47 billion of investment in the gold industry. If they wanted 1% exposure, $117 billion would flood our sector. And don't forget about the needs of hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, private equity funds, private wealth funds, insurance companies, ETFs, and millions of worldwide retail investors like me and you. All these entities could easily view a shift into gold stocks as a viable way to gain exposure to precious metals. It'll be the next logical step to take – maybe the only sensible step available if the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the most natural thing in the world for them to do. Make no mistake: if this bull market continues, gold stocks will truly soar. An increasingly desperate clamor for exposure to gold could light a short fuse for our market sector. It's not here yet, but when the rush starts, it will be both breathtaking and life-changing. Are you positioned? [You can buy deeply discounted gold today, getting yourself positioned for handsome profits ahead. Learn how to do it.] http://www.caseyresearch.com/article...ocks-will-soar | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buffett: ‘Right To Be Fearful,’ Favors Stocks Posted: 09 Feb 2012 10:23 PM PST A pattern of gold trading higher in Asia and falling just before or at the open in Europe continued again today. Gold ticked a little higher in Asian trade prior to sharp falls before the open at 0800 GMT when gold fell quickly fell from $1,729/oz to $1,715/oz. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Feb 2012 09:28 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverNot much happened price-wise in gold in Far East and early London trading on Thursday. There was the usual smallish rally going into the London open, but it got sold off in the same old way, as it does just about every day at about that time. [Including this morning! - Ed] From there, the price slowly declined until about 12:45 p.m. in London, which was the London low. Then a smallish rally developed that gained some real traction at 9:15 a.m. in New York, but the moment that the gold price stuck its nose above the $1,750 mark, one of the usual not-for-profit sellers was there to put things right...and every subsequent rally got sold off before it got a sniff of the $1,750 mark. Then at 12:45 Eastern, another not-for-profit seller showed up...and by 2:15 p.m., the gold price hit its low of the day, closing the electronic trading session barely off that low. Gold finished the Thursday session in New York at $1,729.10 spot...down $2.90 on the day. Net volume was a very chunky 152,000 contracts, so it was obvious that 'da boyz' had to throw a lot of Comex paper at the price earlier in the day to keep it below the $1,750 spot mark.
Silver's price action was much the same...and despite the best efforts of JPMorgan et al...silver blasted through the $34/ounce price level with some authority, but that slip-up was taken care of before the New York trading session ended. Silver closed the day at $33.90 spot...down four cents on the day. Net volume was rather hefty as well at 40,000 contracts...give or take a thousand or so.
For the second day running, the dollar index was virtually comatose, finishing unchanged on the day...so it's obvious that the price action in the precious metals was not influenced by what was going on in the currency markets on Thursday.
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price...and the HUI finished down 0.20%.
As you can imagine, the silver stocks didn't do particularly well, either...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 0.72% yesterday.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 229 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. The short/issuer of all 229 contracts was Deutsche Bank...and the long/stoppers were the Bank of Nova Scotia, JPMorgan...in both client and in-house accounts...and Citigroup. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. Authorized participants made additions to both GLD and SLV yesterday. GLD took in 38,875 ounces...and SLV received 1,166,143 troy ounces of silver. There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint. It was also very quiet at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, as they didn't receive any silver...and only shipped 1,955 ounces out the door. Here are a couple of charts courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. The first shows the horrendous state of affairs of the shadow housing inventories. With this kind of overhang, the entire U.S. real estate market will be dead in the water for many, many years to come. Back in early 2007 I mentioned that I would talk about the bottom of the real estate market in 2013. Well, we're barely into the 2012 year...and I can say without fear of contradiction that this forecast I made five years ago is out by at least five years, so let's revisit this issue in 2018.
(Click on image to enlarge) The second chart from Washington state reader S.E. is titled S&P Tech Earnings Outlook with, and without, Apple. Not very impressive, is it?
This last chart is courtesy of reader "Tom in BR". There are a lot of estimates in this chart...but it's a good bet that the supply statistics [in red] are close to the mark, as production out to 2017 is pretty much baked in the cake already. We are at what is called "peak gold"...and unless there are some major [with a capital 'M'] discoveries brought on stream in the years to come, this is just about as high as gold/scrap production will ever get in our, or our descendents, lifetimes. The question that's posed on the chart..."Where will investors get their gold?"...is well worth pondering...and I just hope you're getting your share, dear reader.
I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you at least read the few paragraphs from each that I've cut and paste below each headline, so you at least get the flavour of the news item. It was another day where the gold and silver prices were held in check...and break-out attempts got squashed once again. A 'controlled retreat' by central banks in the gold market isn't nearly enough. CME Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum And Copper Margins. Davies sees new interest in gold, fair value over $4,000. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeWhy the Foreclosure Deal May Not Be So Hot After All: Matt TaibbiIt feels an awful lot like what happened here is the nation's criminal justice honchos collectively realized that a thorough investigation of the problem would require resources they simply do not have, or are reluctant to deploy, and decided to accept a superficially face-saving peace offer rather than fight it out. So they settled the case in a way that reads in headlines like it's a bite out of the banks, but in fact is barely even that. There will be little in the way of real compensation for struggling homeowners, and there are serious issues in the area of the deal's enforceability. In fact, about the only part of the deal we can be absolutely sure will be honored in full is the liability waiver for the robo-signing offenses. Really this looks like America's public prosecutors just wilted before the prospect of a long, drawn-out conflict with an army of highly-paid, determined white-shoe banker lawyers. The message this sends is that if you commit crimes on a large enough scale, and have enough high-priced legal talent sitting at the negotiating table after you get caught, the government will ultimately back down, conceding the inferiority of its resources. I agree totally. It was a sell-out of biblical proportions. This Matt Taibbi piece was posted over at the rollingstone.com website early yesterday afternoon...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. If real estate matters to you, it's well worth the read...and the link is here.  Bill Gross: Twilight of the Bond King - Special ReportOver more than three decades, Bill Gross, co-founder of asset-management giant PIMCO, has made so much money for clients that he has become the barometer by which other bond traders are judged. His West Coast perch, prescient calls on the U.S. economy and devotion to yoga only added to the mystique. But the very recipe that enabled Gross to dominate his industry may now be conspiring against him. He's coming off his worst year in the business after making a huge bet against U.S. Treasuries that backfired. Last year, for the first time in nearly two decades, investors pulled more money out of PIMCO's flagship fund than they put in. Reader Phil Barlett sent me this very short Reuters piece yesterday...and it's a must read in my opinion...and the link is here.  Greece Reaches Austerity Agreement: German Finance Minister Doubts Deal Will Be EnoughAfter days of difficult negotiations, the leaders of the parties that comprise the Greek coalition government agreed to implement new austerity measures required in order for the country to receive additional aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the office of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos announced on Thursday. The highly indebted euro-zone country is close to insolvency, and the government in Athens appears to be willing to meet most of the demands made by the troika, comprised of the EU, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB), responsible for determining if Greece has fulfilled its aid requirements. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said on Thursday evening, however, that he did not anticipate that a final decision would emerge from the meeting. He also expressed skepticism that the agreement reached in Athens would be enough to secure funding. "The agreement, as far as I understand, is not at a stage where it can be signed off," Schäuble said according to the Associated Press. He said that any deal had to be sufficient to bring down Greek debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 and limit the need for bailout money to the previously agreed €130 billion. "Those general requirements are not fulfilled yet," he said. This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday evening...and is another offering from reader Roy Stephens. The link is here.  Railing against the 'Fourth Reich' - Anti-German Mood Heats Up in GreeceNazi flags are hardly a rarity at Greek demonstrations these days. Anti-German tirades on primetime television have likewise become a staple. In Greece, a consensus has developed as to who is to blame for the country's economic misery. Age old stereotypes are flourishing. Georgios Trangas had launched into a tirade -- yet again. He seemed to have completely forgotten his four studio guests. Trangas stared into the camera and turned to his favourite subject: the Germans, and how they are cold-bloodedly shoving Greece into the abyss. "Germany doesn't care that 3 million pensioners are dying here," he raged. The sentence is one of his more harmless utterances on this evening. But such verbal artillery is hardly out of the ordinary on the Athens television broadcaster Extra 33, a channel full of angry broadsides against the "German occupiers." "Choris Anästhetiko" is the name of the program, and it lives up to its name: "Without Anaesthesia." Politesse is an alien concept on the show as it offers ruthless analysis of the economic and debt crisis gripping Greece. On this evening, the show is set to examine the problems facing taxi drivers in Athens and the suffering shipping industry. But the experts invited to appear on the show serve little more of a purpose than providing the moderator with additional excuses to launch into a diatribe. This very interesting read showed up at the spiegel.de website yesterday as well...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.  Greek death spiral accelerates: Ambrose Evans-PritchardAnother normal day at the Hellenic Statistical Authority. We learn that: Greece's manufacturing output contracted by 15.5pc in December from a year earlier...Industrial output fell 11.3pc, compared to minus 7.8pc in November...Unemployment jumped to 20.9pc in November, up from 18.2pc a month earlier. I have little further to add. This is what a death spiral looks like. It is what can happen if you join a fixed exchange system, then take out very large debts in what amounts to a foreign currency, and then have simultaneous monetary and fiscal contraction imposed upon you. Ambrose is up on his soap box once again...telling it like it really is. This short blog was posted at the blogs.telegraph.co.uk website yesterday...and is a must read as well. I thank Roy for bringing this to our attention...and the link is here.  Irish want debt concession if ECB aids GreeceA 'controlled retreat' by central banks in the gold market isn't nearly enough Posted: 09 Feb 2012 09:28 PM PST  In his commentary this week, "Gold Cars and Gas Stations," posted at GoldSeek, 24hGold, and 321Gold -- financial letter writer Stewart Thompson remarks that "banks likely are manipulating gold, and manipulating it higher, with central bank buy programs" and that gold investors should take a break along with the gold price rather than keep "screaming that you're being manipulated to death." That Western central banks may be working the gold price higher is not a new idea to readers of these dispatches and followers of market analysts like GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and GATA consultant James Turk, founder of GoldMoney. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buffett cautions against bonds and gold Posted: 09 Feb 2012 07:25 PM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Diamond prices might outpace gold as demand rises Posted: 09 Feb 2012 06:57 PM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Update: “Metals Margins” Posted: 09 Feb 2012 06:16 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Gospel of Gold According to Peter: Peter Grandich Posted: 09 Feb 2012 06:00 PM PST Peter Grandich believes that we're in the midst of a stealth gold bull market. Grandich, editor and publisher of The Grandich Letter, recently penned the book Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid,... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Martin Armstrong on metals manipulation Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:00 PM PST Below are some relevant extracts from Martin Armstrong's The Analytical Shill. The article is generally about how research and analysts are conflicted and how analysts and investors and gurus can be blinded by their biases. The paragraphs below are straight from the article and will jump around a bit because I've just pasted them in order they appeared without all the extraneous stuff. Martin Armstrong: The metals were one favorite sector where they were constantly bullish – never bearish for 19 years. But hey, the market manipulators always needed cheer-leaders to get people to buy every high so they could sell. On the Buffett Silver Manipulation, it was PhiBro who had a shill call the Wall Street Journal and tell them I was trying to manipulate silver down because I was short. When the WSJ & I argued and they refused to print the name Buffett they demanded I give them, that forced the CFTC to act calling me to ask where was it taking place. I told them London and they called the Bank of England. When they in turn ordered all silver brokers to show up the next morning, Buffett was forced to come out and admit he bought $1 billion worth of silver but denied he was manipulating the price. You can ask the guys at GATA. They were well aware of the first 1993 Manipulation by PhiBro (Philips Brothers). They got in bed with Buffett when he stepped in to run Salomon Brothers after they got caught MANIPULATING the US Government bond auctions. They began buying silver and the CFTC stepped in demanding to know who their client was. Now if it had been anyone else, PhiBro's reply was they refused to tell the name of the client. Forget the law. That does not apply to New York firms. The CFTC responded saying if they could not know who their client was, then PhilBro had to exist the trade. They did and of course made a fortune for the hawkers had all the little guys buy silver just in time for PhilBro to sell it to them. This is WHY the manipulations began to move to London. Not only did PhiBro try to get me on board, their broker walked across the floor and SHOWED my broker Buffett's orders at the low! To create the fundamental, they moved inventory from New York to London. They were manipulating silver as always. Playing games with the inventories. They were moving silver from New York to London where the Buffett orders were being executed. This made the US warehouse inventories drop sharply. Go look at the analysts who talked silver up on that very fundamental. If they said there was a shortage of silver and you better buy it is going to $100, then you may be dealing with a shill or a biased analyst. Many of the metals analysts with an agenda back then hated my guts. How dare I say there was a manipulation when it was at last silver was going up instead of down. Now I was part of some covert conspiracy hell bent on suppressing the metals because I dared to say "they are back" (manipulators) and the target was $7 by January 1998. To this crowd, a manipulation is always to the downside and never up. Go check the recommendations of analysts back then. See where they stood. The best one I heard was silver was in demand in London because it was .9999 there instead of .999 in New York. GATA began to see the same nonsense that I did during the early 1990s. It was just that I saw the manipulations as being UNBIASED. In other words, they did not care what they manipulated as long as there was a guaranteed profit. They manipulated even base metals such as rhodium. They manipulated platinum in league with Russian politicians who strangely recalled all platinum to take an inventory. Hell, Ford Motor Company filed suit over that manipulation. How do you distinguish a REAL bull market from a bullshit manipulation? Most manipulations can be seen easily when you look at a market in terms of a Basket of Currencies. Why? Because a REAL bull market must take place ONLY when it rises in terms of ALL currencies. Unless that takes place, investors in some countries will be sellers while others are buyers. Here is a classic example as to why we were bearish on gold for 19 years despite the hate mail and the best attacks of the shills. The manipulators ALWAYS need to get the metals guys worked up into a fever to sell to them to make their profits and big bonuses. So when analysts only espouse one side, be very careful. For no matter what the market, there is always a time to rally and a time to pause. Nothing is ever straight up or straight down. Anyone who portrays that is either ignorant of the market behavior, or a shill – paid cheer-leader. Putting out bogus research has been the name of the game. Unfortunately, there are just some people who are hardcore. Markets are the same mix as politics. There are people who simply believe in a given position and no matter what you say or what evidence you present to the contrary, they will never believe it. Thus, I have NEVER been interested in preaching to the choir. I have always preferred the independent thinker – the investor who wants to really learn about market behavior and not read someone who simply supports their never changing view of the world. Nor am I interested in exchange words with those who may not be shills, but are just part of a particular hardcore group. I am cheered only when I agree, and if I disagree, I am despised. But that is expected in the retail world – NEVER in the professional institutional world. There cannot be a perpetual bull market in anything anymore than you can stand there with your arm straight up in the air. Oh shore, you can do it briefly. But then your arm will feel so heavy you can no longer keep it up. Everything takes a pause for the same reason you sleep at night. Nothing can maintain the same energy output all the time. People come up with all sorts of excuses why they are right yet the market declines. Usually it is some conspiracy of a mythical group so powerful that they just win. Markets collapse because EVERYONE who ever thought of buying has bought. They are now counting their profits for the next eternity. Something happens and scares the herd. Suddenly, the long try to sell but there is no bid. The market collapses in the blink of an eye. Why, because the majority has already bought and there are no new buyers to keep the momentum going. It is never some mythical short player preventing the upward advance. It is just not time yet. Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, has been following the so called experts for some 25 years studying primarily the institutional forecasting skill of political experts. He had signed up nearly 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists keeping track of more than 82,000 forecasts plotting them against real-world results. He analyzed not just what the experts said but how they reasoned and how quickly they changed their mind in the face of contrary evidence. He also tracked how they reacted when they were wrong, which was of course the majority of the time. Most could not even beat a random forecast generator. Tetlock's research did discover that there was one kind of expert turns out consistently more accurate forecasts than others. The most important factor he discovered was not how much education or experience the experts had but how they actually thought. The best forecasters were those who were self-critical, eclectic thinkers who were constantly updating their beliefs when faced with contrary evidence instead of clinging to dogma. He found the best were suspicious of grand schemes and conspiracies and were more practical about their predictive ability. The less successful forecasters clung to the same ideas never wavering pushing the same idea to the breaking point of absurdity. These types of people were more often embraced by the media because they loved to articulate and persuade as to why their idea explained absolutely everything. Tetlock uncovered widespread forecasting failures. Of course, there is the herd of followers who for some reason want a GURU and unrealistically expect infallibility. This may reinforce the pundits that like to put on a show and claim why they are personally better than everyone else and only their ideas are correct and when wrong, it is the result of some giant conspiracy, not their lack of ability to forecast. The key to the future lies in the UNBIASED view of whatever it is. You cannot be married to a single position EVER! Tetlock points out that a successful analyst always qualifies their arguments with "however" and "perhaps," while the dangerous analysts build up momentum with "moreover" and "all the more so" as they try to be more entertaining. The dangerous analyst wants to keep the clients happy and to a large extent preaches to the choir telling them what they want to hear. The one thing about markets is that the MAJORITY just have to be wrong! Why? They are the fuel that drives the market up and down. Trap the majority either long or short and you create the fuel for the next move in the opposite direction. So for now, it is far better to let the markets speak. As I stated at just about every conference I have ever given, there is ONLY one analyst that is never wrong – that is the market itself. The key to successful trading & forecasting is to learn how to let the market speak to you and go with the flow. It does so in both TIME as well as PRICE. Turning points are NEVER specific events, but inflection points where highs and lows take place. It would have been nice to have a low first and a more orderly advance afterwards. But markets like to create the worst of all worlds. So for anyone who thinks he can beat the game as an analyst or trader, must remember one thing. The market is always right. To survive, we have to align ourselves with the market and listen when it speaks. This is not a game for arrogance and prognostications fixed in stone steeped in bias and dogma. History repeats – but also with a slight twist. So how high will gold go? It is a question of CONFIDENCE. You will ALWAYS be your greatest adversary, for to succeed you must conquer your own biases, fears, and doubts. You cannot do that as Philip Tetlock has keenly demonstrated with fixed ideas. If you are married to a philosophy and will not yield and blame everyone else for conspiring against you and that is the reason something has not yet unfolded, you better see a shrink.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abandoning The Dollar For Gold Posted: 09 Feb 2012 04:56 PM PST Jan Skoyles looks at the recent stories of countries abandoning the dollar for gold in international transactions. This will have implications for the gold price, but will it have an impact on further debates involving the gold standard. At The Real Asset Co we promote a return to sound money and so developments such as those discussed below always grab our attention. Last month the papers were full of reports stating Iran had agreed to sell their oil to India in exchange for gold. The agreement to trade in gold sidesteps the sanctions issued by the EU and US law which prohibit all new oil contracts and have frozen the Iranian central bank's assets in the EU. Soon after the India/Iran story there were reports of both Russia and China making similar deals with the Iranians. This isn't the first time international payment agreements have been rumoured to be taking place. In 2009, there were reports of the Arab states, along with Russia, China, Japan and strangely, France, to start trading oil using a new basket of currencies. This basket was rumoured to include the Japanese yen and Chinese Yuan, the euro, a new, single currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council and of course, gold. Nothing has come to light in any of these instances. But such rumours do impact upon both the gold price and further discussions of a return to some form of the gold standard. Gold tactics These sanctions on Iran are also not new 'nor is the use of gold as a response to certain actions. Back in late 1979, Iranian student Revolutionary Guards stormed the US Embassy, in Tehran, taking several US Hostages. The Americans responded by freezing Iran's gold which was held in Fort Knox. The Iranians responded by panic buying gold from Zurich. The freezing of gold assets by the US Federal Reserve made other countries realise their gold was no longer safe, sparking a gold buying spree by the Middle East. This was enough to push the gold price above $850. This act of lawlessness by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was of course wrong – in the same way starting a nuclear war would be wrong. However the actions by the US government in 1979 was also wrong, as it is today for both the US and the EU to implement sanctions. They may, possibly, prevent a nuclear war, but an economic war seems likely. This reoccurring issue of abandoning the US dollar, in order to push a political motive, for another national currency, a basket of currencies or even gold raises the question of whether it is ever a sensible idea to have one national currency as the international reserve currency. Bad money Canadian economist Robert Mundell argues no national currency should ever be used as a leading reserve currency. He argues precious metals were used as international money over the centuries 'because they were more efficient than other instruments in fulfilling the required functions of money.' Mundell goes onto argue that currencies which are controlled at the whim of a government tend to weaken over the long term as supply begins to outweigh demand. For Mundell, currencies in which there are opportunities to exploit and overvalue due to the monopoly of government, is 'bad' money. This has been no more the case than with the United States and the dollar. It now seems countries which are growing rapidly and have significant trading weight, are rapidly losing confidence in the US dollar and beginning to realise there is an alternative. Paul Fabra states that whichever country's fiat money you use, it will be dangerous; 'in a world where real money is replaced by fiat money and monetary reserves increasingly consist of other countries' fiat money, the monetary system resembles a house of cards.' To have power of a monetary system is to remove democratic rights from those participating in that monetary system. This applies to both citizens of the currency and those who trade with them. Gold money is danger money For those who abandon the US Dollar in the oil trade, the future does not look bright. In 2003 a Middle Eastern oil producing nation abandoned the dollar in favour of the Euro. A few months after their president joyously announced his decision the Brits and American invaded, toppling Saddam Hussein from power. It was not long after this Iran, in 2009, also announced their foreign currency reserves would also be kept in euros, rather than US dollars. Is this how wars begin? Is it in fact not about human rights or oil but is in fact about whose currencies are the toughest? There are reportedly other factors at work here, which are apparently the cause of these currency wars – namely the nuclear threat from Iran. But it is worth discussing the undemocratic nature of using a country's currency as an international currency. Jan Skoyles looks at the recent stories of countries abandoning the dollar for gold in international transactions. This will have implications for the gold price, but will it have an impact on further debates involving the gold standard. The Libertarian Dr Tim Baker once said to me, he doesn't know which currency is the right one but whatever currency is chosen by thepeople is the correct one. This was no more the case than is seen in the period of the Classical Gold Standard. The Classical Gold Standard is the most famous commodity standard in history. The decision to move onto the gold standard around the late 1870s was not the result of an international treaty or summit as we so often see on the news. There were no group photos taken of our great leaders announcing they had decided on this brand new way to trade. No, it happened gradually and by choice. Great Britain, at the time was the great economic and political power, and had operated on a gold standard ever since 1717. By 1880 Great Britain's trading partners had realised that due to the influence and power of the Commonwealth, it would be advantageous to move from their own metallic standards to what is now known as the Classical Gold Standard. We then saw the US take advantage of its position as the wealthiest, least scathed country to come out of both World Wars. This was its opportunity to exert its power over the global financial system. Through several stages, the Americans removed gold completely from the international monetary system. Now, with their trillion dollars of debt and more supply to meet demand – the house of cards that is dominated by the joker US dollar is beginning to wobble. Jan Skoyles looks at the recent stories of countries abandoning the dollar for gold in international transactions. This will have implications for the gold price, but will it have an impact on further debates involving the gold standard. As we alluded to in a recent article, the Chinese economy has astonished us all with their economic performance since the 1970s. The majority of the measures which useless economic groups such as the WEF use to assess countries, are met by the Chinese. The Chinese are hoarding gold, they're rumoured to be partaking in gold payments with Iran. Are we beginning to see the next stage of a global currency change? These countries, Iran, India, China and Russia have a lot of what we want – oil and manufactured goods. It is also worth noting, Venezuela has, in the last week, received the last of its $11bn worth of repatriated gold. The head of Venezuela's Central Bank told the press on Monday, " [during periods] of global financial crisis and turmoil in the developed economic centres, gold becomes one of the principal safe assets because it is the only means of international payment that has its own intrinsic value — in other words it is not a debt of other countries." The relationship between Chavez and the US is commonly known to not be a good one. Chavez once famously stated, 'I hereby accuse the North American empire of being the biggest menace to our planet.' His moves to repatriate the country's gold may be seen to be making a point to the American government, which has long coerced the South American continent, but is Chavez also making a savvy move towards self-sufficiency. Gold and democracy Gold is a way of expressing your democratic right – your right to choose- why should these countries operate with the US Dollar as the reserve currency? Growing economic powers such as China are likely to become the next world leaders, if they're preparing to abandon a national currency for gold then maybe we're beginning to see a second phase of the a gold standard. History repeats. Jan Skoyles contributes to The Real Asset Co research desk. Jan has recently graduated with a First in International Business and Economics. In her final year she developed a keen interest in Austrian economics, Libertarianism and particularly precious metals. The Real Asset Co. is a secure and efficient way to invest precious metals. Clients typically use our platform to build a long position and are using gold and silver bullion as a savings mechanism in the face on currency debasement and devaluations. The Real Asset Co. holds a distinctly Austrian world view and was launched to help savers and investors secure and protect their wealth and purchasing power.
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| Gold and Silver in 63 languages Posted: 09 Feb 2012 04:30 PM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvanias Ice Mine And the Lost Silver Posted: 09 Feb 2012 04:30 PM PST coudy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 09 Feb 2012 04:19 PM PST Once the stock market begins moving down into its intermediate cycle low it will almost certainly force another rally in the dollar, possibly (probably) back to new 52-week highs. That should, at the very minimum, pressure gold to retest the December lows. |
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