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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


Rick Rule - Fear Driving Demand, Moving Gold & Silver Higher

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 04:03 PM PST

With gold, silver and oil on the move, today King World News interviewed Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott USA. Rick spoke with KWN about the significant move in gold and silver and what we are looking at going forward. Here is what Rule had to say: "First, gold and silver were oversold and they are now coming back.  Second, gold and silver move according to fear and you and I both know there is a lot to be afraid of.  Has Greece been fixed?  Of course not.  So gold and silver have moved higher."


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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1% and 4%

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 04:00 PM PST

Gold climbed to as high as $1789.87 by a little before noon EST before it fell back off a bit in early afternoon trade, but it still ended with a gain of 1.04%. Silver surged to as high as $37.204 and ended with a gain of 4.39%.


Dollar to Crash, Unemployment Rise and Stocks Bite Dust: Analysts

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 03:30 PM PST

Despite talk of an improving economy and a surge in stock markets, doomsayers have warned of tougher times ahead for Americans with an imminent financial crash looming in the near future.

Three analysts, with expertise on finance and trends, told the USA Today Monday that the worst of the financial crisis was yet to hit the nation.

Gerald Celente from the Trends Research Institute talked of an impending "economic 9/11" situation, that he believes will result from the shortcomings or lack of control from lawmakers in dealing with economic disasters.

Celente, who is long known for forecasting trends since 1980, predicts that dollar will crash, thereby leading to less purchasing power and unemployment.

"2012 is when many of the long-simmering socioeconomic and political trends that we have been forecasting and tracking will climax," Celente said in the report.

"When money stops flowing to the man on the street, blood starts flowing in the street," the trend setter added.

The publication also profiled Harry Dent, who authored a book titled "The Great Crash Ahead." Dent foresees a stock market crash around 2013 or 2014 and believes stocks are given an "artificial short-term boost". Read more.....


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Reader Poll: With Technical Resistance Indicators Falling Like Dominos, NOW Where Do You Think Silver Is Going In The Immediate Future?

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 03:01 PM PST

[Ed. Note: UPDATED - Take a look at where we are on that "Weekly" chart.]

Your call… Are we there yet? Or is this just another ride?

Where does silver go from here?

(Click to Enlarge)

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart:


Silver Update: 2/28/12 Market Data

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:59 PM PST

Gold Market Of The 70s Was A Dress Rehearsal

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:46 PM PST

by Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com:

My Dear Extended Family,

Please keep focused on the fact that the gold market of the 70s was simply a dress rehearsal. What is taking place right now is the real thing.

The supposed "Curse of 13″ is behind you in the break from $1900 to close to $1500.

The reaction was stopped because the need and use for QE to infinity is real and present in time. There is no other tool in the lender of last resort to the entire Western World's toolbox other than QE which can be applied to create the degree of liquidity required to prevent a global implosion. No other tool can create infinite liquidity in a flash. There is no speculating on what might happen in the future. It has happened now.

Few are looking at dollar utilization falling in international contracting and settlement. That is a key element of 2012. The US dollar has enjoyed demand from settlement and contracting which it is now losing daily. Gold is gaining utilization as a competitive currency.

Enormous utilization was the blessing the dollar had when it was the reserve currency of choice. Utilization and settlement is falling fast as the dollar now is the reserve currency by default.

Read More @ JSMineset.com


Not Your Father’s Annual Letter to Shareholders

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:39 PM PST

from WealthCycles:

Welcome, WealthCycles readers. As many of you already know, Warren Buffet released his annual letter to shareholders for 2012 over the weekend. His letter is lengthy, so we cut it down to a fun report on the most important subject, gold, and let our readers reply.

The insights posited by our readers, such as this gem, "You will have to produce more and more at an increasing velocity," do much to illustrate the central fallacy in Buffet's argument.

Buffet deliberately treats gold as an investment, not as money, keeping stride with the big lie: gold is not money, but merely an inedible commodity.

Yet in the pile A and pile B exercise Warren postulates, he sees both piles as speculative investments–Investments "which will have to produce more and more, at an increasing velocity" to increase in real value, measured in purchasing power.

Read More @ WealthCycles.com


Why Are Precious Metals Bulls Scared?

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:35 PM PST


GoldMoney. The best way to buy gold & silver



Well, first of all, bull markets climb a wall of worry. But second, there are some powerful media forces trying to maintain the status quo. They are constantly disparaging Gold and talking about imminent corrections, bubbles, etc. As a recent example, Warren Buffett did a recent hit piece on Gold published in the Wall Street Journal (video talking head summary here). And, of course, there is always Jon Nadler at kitco.com to make sure you are NEVER bullish on precious metals no matter what.

Actually, specifically, kitco.com having Jon Nadler as its spokesperson is quite revealing and concerning. What is this company, which sells derivative positions in Gold (a la pooled accounts), trying to accomplish? As someone who learned all his lessons the hard way in the precious metals market, I can attest to the fact that this company talked me out of physical metal and encouraged me to buy a "pooled account" position in metal when I first began to try to invest in physical metal back in 2003.

I would like to share some quotes from a recent piece by Jon Nadler. I no longer read his commentary and haven't for years, but Bob Moriarty over at 321gold.com posted one of his pieces, so I assumed it had some value and read it. What a mistake and waste of my time. Nadler is a plague on the Gold community but refuses to go away. How could anyone spend more time trying to disparage the product his company sells? The tone, the anger, the bearishness. It's so over-the-top that it seems beyond intentional and I believe is simply trying to make fun of those who have cast their lot with physical metal held outside the banking system. Anyone who does business with kitco.com knowing that Nadler is their main market commentator is asking for trouble. When the poop hits the fan exactly, I don't know, but this is a firm that should not be trusted primarily because they employ this fellow.

Here are quotes from his most recent piece (link here), with my comment following each quote:

"That the latest round of price increases in gold has been an overwhelmingly fund-engendered phenomenon is quite obvious. More worrisome on the other hand are certain trends in the physical markets (we covered the potential erosion in India's 2012 imports and the decline in USA-based physical investment in 2011 in last week's articles)."


He sounds nervous that this is simply "hot money" chasing metal prices and that people aren't interested in physical metal at current prices. Gosh, maybe I should sell now and beat the herd to the exits.

"Well, you can now add Vietnam to the roster of countries where domestic investors are suddenly 'uncertain' about continued, (some say endless) gains in gold."


Ohmygosh, those Vietnamese are some of the smartest and shrewdest Gold traders out there. If they are 'uncertain,' then I should be panicked!

"In any case, gold's "paper" bullish sentiment is approaching certain levels (above 90% according to trade-futures.com's Daily Sentiment Index) from which previous sharp corrections have ensued. Silver has some work left to do as it begins to encounter overhead resistance that extends all the way up towards the $37.85 overhead resistance level. If and when support near $32.62 is breached, the tenor of the market will tilt towards deeper corrections."


Overhead resistance from here to Mars in silver - holy cow! That means the bulls have no chance whatsoever! My gosh, we are so close to breeching $32.62 that I better just sell now...

"That's the best such level of betting [in commodities- GVP] since September of last year. However, this time, the bullish tilt (in gold for example) comes amid expectations for economic recovery (in the USA mainly) as opposed to the economic and financial Armageddon that many had expected to materialize for several years now. In so many words, this is now a niche that simply does not make room for anything but positive news. That's when the worrying should begin…"


Wow! If the world is not coming to an end and bullets and beans are not the investment theme of the day, you're darn right I'm worried! Call kitco and tell them that I want to sell them every piece of physical metal I own and even my neighbor's metal that I don't own, since they understand pooling of resources and derivatives on physical metal better than I do!

"The enthusiasm being seen in commodity futures and options positioning is most certainly not being mirrored in the still poorly performing mining share sector and the type of betting going on is itself being questioned by some: "The latest commodity flow numbers is catch-up with previous positive trends. People are moving into them based on a string of relatively positive numbers. Whether those will continue to carry weight is a little more questionable," said one money flow analyst at EPFR Global in Cambridge, Mass."


CALL MY BROKER! AN UNNAMED BROKER AT SOME FIRM I HAVE NEVER HEARD OF IS BEARISH! Those smart Wall Street guys have been right on Gold since, well... I guess their track record sucks, BUT YOU NEVER KNOW!

{Sarcasm off}

In short, I call "foul" on kitco.com for doing a disservice to the very people they claim to try to represent and/or market to. Nadler is a mouthpiece, albeit a lousy one, for the status quo. And if he doesn't think so, well that is even worse. I have never seen a more bearish Gold analyst unless paperbugs Warren Buffett and Nouriel (half-a-hit sort-of-wonder) Roubini count as Gold analysts. And let's not forget that Buffett would be broke right now if it weren't for government largess coming to his rescue. And Roubini, I assume, has already finished his Spam and has nothing left but paper to eat (try the hot sauce, dude!).

My subscribers and I are long silver and Gold stocks and have been since catching the bottom on February 16th. If you are looking for more reasonable advice than that spewed by Nadler and Buffett when it comes to the precious metals, why don't you give my low cost subscription service a try? And believe me, I can be bearish on the precious metals sector as well when appropriate, just not as a matter of course and not as a religious conviction that clouds every statement I make. Until the Dow to Gold ratio gets to 2 (and we may well go below 1 this cycle), Gold will continue to make Buffett look like the feeble has-been paper permabull that he is (at least until he gets his next tranche of bailout money...).



Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices

[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]


Darryl Schoon Sees the Mother of All Crashes Coming Soon – 02-28-2012

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:31 PM PST

from The Financial Survival Network:

Darryl Schoon was way ahead of the curve when in March 2007 he wrote, "How To Survive The Crisis And Prosper In The Process." This paper was prepared for a private club Darryl had joined, The Positive Deviant Network. The report turned out to be quite prophetic, and it helped launch Darryl's career as a major authority in the precious metals and financial survival investment world.

To quote Darryl, "Today, central bankers, the mandarins of capitalism, are in disarray. Their attempts to contain capitalism's current crisis increasingly resemble the tactics of a defeated army in retreat. Like Napoleon and Hitler's respective 'Moscow moments', the 21st century economic crisis has brought to an end the bankers' spectacular 300 year run at the table of power and wealth."

Since 2007, Darryl has not changed his tune in the least bit. He believes the Buck Minster Fuller was spot on by predicting a transformational global economic collapse. Darryl also believes there will be a much better world once this has taken place.

Click Here to Listen to the Podcast


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Pento: Rampant Inflation Tomorrow Necessary to Avoid Deflationary Depression Today! Got Gold?

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 02:30 PM PST

There is an all out assault on the part of global central banks to destroy their currencies in an effort to allow their respective governments to continue the practice of running humongous deficits. In fact, the developed world’s central bankers are faced with the choice of either massively monetizing Sovereign debt or to sit back and watch a deflationary depression crush global growth. Since they have so blatantly chosen to ignite inflation, it would be wise to own the correct hedges against your burning paper currencies. Words: 740So says Michael Pento ([url]www.PentoPort.com[/url])**in edited excerpts from an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. (This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.) * *[url]http://www.pentoport.com/pentonomics.php[/url] [INDENT][B]Editor's Note...


Another Unintended Consequence: $80 Billion 'Gas Price' Tax On Consumption

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 01:37 PM PST

Although U.S. demand for crude oil has fallen by 1.5 million barrels per day since 2007, anyone spending more than a few minutes on the road, watching TV, or surfing the internet will be more than unpleasantly aware of the rapid rise in gas prices recently. As we noted earlier, following January's record high average gas price, February just surpassed its own record and TrimTabs quantifies the impact of this implicit tax on consumption, noting three key factors that will remain supportive of high oil prices: Central Bank liquidity provision (ZIRP), political tensions, and implicit USD devaluation. Critically, around 70% of the benefits of the payroll tax extension has already been removed thanks to 60-80c rise in gas prices nationwide whose growth has far outstripped wage and salary growth in recent years. As Madeline Schnapp points out, while the latest round of oil speculation is likely to end with a pop, she doubts oil prices will drop much below $100/bbl as the erosion of purchasing power from high energy prices is here to stay.

 

 

TrimTabs Macro Spotlight: Surging Gas Prices Unintended Consequence of Zero Percent Interest Rates and Trillions of Dollars Pumped into Financial Sector.

Spike in Gas Prices Equivalent to $80 Billion Annualized Tax on Consumption. At Current Gas Prices, 70% of Benefit from Payroll Tax Cut Wiped Out.

 

We spent some time recently driving on Interstate 5, the main north/south highway in California. In little more than a month, the price of gas rose from $3.69 per gallon to $4.49 per gallon, an increase of 80 cents, or 22%. After filling our tank the last time, the change from a hundred dollar bill was just 69 cents. Ouch!

 

Our experience prompted us to take a closer look at what is driving fuel prices higher. Although U.S. demand for crude oil has fallen by 1.5 million barrels per day since 2007, three factors are likely to remain supportive of oil prices:

 

  • Dictated interest rates are at or near zero in much of the developed world, and central bankers have flooded the financial system with enormous amounts of freshly printed money. One of the logical places for this liquidity to flow are highly liquid, highly leveraged commodity futures contracts. The rising number of outstanding contracts helps push prices higher, which in turn draws more speculators into the market. This speculation was the primary driver of high oil and gas prices in the summer of 2008 and is likely contributing to high prices today.
  • Political tensions are heating up between Iran and the West about Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. The fear premium from this factor is probably $8 to $10 per barrel of oil.
  • There is a strong negative correlation between oil and gas prices and the value of the U.S. dollar. The Fed's money printing puts strong downward pressure on the value of the greenback. While a weaker dollar boosts U.S. exporters, it hurts consumers, who face higher prices for commodities that are produced overseas but are priced in dollars. While the value of the dollar (DXY=78.8 on February 23, 2012) is well above its trough in the past four years (DXY=71.7 on March 17, 2008), it is well below its peak (DXY=88.5 on March 9, 2009).

 

The 60-cent to 80-cent increase in gas prices nationwide over the past two months is equivalent to a $60 billion to $80 billion annualized tax on consumption. Since the payroll tax reduction is estimated to have put $114 billion back in consumers' pockets, the recent run up in oil has negated about 70% of the benefit of this tax cut.

 

Looking at the increase from another point of view, we estimate the annual increase in wages and salaries over the past 12 months is only $185 billion. A $60 billion to $80 billion annualized increase in fuel prices effectively wipes out about 35% to 45% of the increase in wages and salaries.

 

Taking a longer view, gas price increases are far outstripping wage and salary growth. Since 2005, gas prices in the Los Angeles area have more than doubled, rising from an average of a little more than $2 per gallon to $4.35 per gallon in the past week. Meanwhile, wages and salaries rose only 15.4%.

 

While the latest round of oil speculation is likely to end with a pop, we doubt oil prices will drop much below $100 per barrel. The erosion of purchasing power from higher energy prices is here to stay.

 

Real-time income tax withholdings suggest real wage and salary growth was barely positive in January and February. If fuel prices hold steady or rise further, we expect real wage and salary growth to turn negative.

Bottom Line: Rapidly Rising Fuel Prices Put Sluggish Economic Growth at Risk.


Why U.S. Gov’t Confiscated Gold in 1933. Can it Happen Again?

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 01:00 PM PST

More and more investors are asking this question. Many observers and commentators have ridiculed this idea as archaic with the conditions that led to the confiscation being so different as to leave such a possibility as remote as the return of the dinosaurs. In this the first part of a series on the subject we look at the picture that led to the confiscation and look at factors that caused the confiscation to see if there are reasons why it can happen again, today!


Dow Industrials Hit Pre-Crash 13,000 Landmark

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:50 AM PST

The US stock market has reached a major landmark in its journey back from lows hit during the financial crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 13,000 for the first time since 19 May 2008, just four months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Analysts say it reflects a growing confidence in the US economy and solid profit reports from US companies.

The Dow added 23 points, or 0.2%, on Tuesday to close at 13,005. It briefly topped 13,000 earlier this month.

"I think it's a momentous day for investor confidence," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

"What this number implies is that the financial crisis, that we were all losing sleep over, it never happened because now we're back."

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Soros, Paulson, and Buffet: How Three Billionaires View Gold

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:44 AM PST

Recent news accounts have revealed some interesting information about the precious metals investment perspectives of three of the world's richest men.

Two of them, George Soros and John Paulson, are very bullish on gold, and have put their money where their mouths are, while a third billionaire, Warren Buffet, remains as skeptical as ever about gold.

George Soros

Hungarian-born investor, philanthropist, and hedge fund manager, George Soros, is probably most famous for having bet against the British pound in 1992.  His actions allegedly netted him about $1 billion in one trading day.

Mr. Soros' views on the wisdom of investing in precious metals have evolved since last year when he was skeptical about gold's future.

Last year we read that he had reduced his holdings of gold and argued that it is a bubble.  But this year he believes that global economic and financial uncertainty will keep prices high.  He recently increased his investments in the SPDR gold-backed ETF, or exchange-traded fund.

Mr. Soros told CNN on February 12 that the European financial crisis has the potential to be far worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and that it could precipitate a global financial meltdown, if not handled right.

The European Union used to be an idea that inspired him and many others, but he now has serious concerns about its future, especially because European authorities still don't have the tools needed to resolve the crisis.

In an interview in the German magazine, Der Spiegel, he said that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is leading Europe in the wrong direction by focusing too much on austerity and not enough on growth.  He also pointed out that Germany was one of the first countries in the euro zone to break the very rules that have gotten Greece in so much trouble.

John Paulson

John Paulson is a billionaire hedge fund manager, who is probably most known for having bet big against the U.S. housing market.  He is said to have made billions by doing that, and he has since invested a lot of money in bullion, metal company stocks, and other investments.

Last year his hedge fund performed very poorly because of investments in areas other than metals, and it was reported that he lost a lot of money.  But he remained bullish on gold.

Mr. Paulson told French newspapers last year that he believed gold's price would continue to rise as long as the Federal Reserve continued printing dollars.  At the time, though, he said he did not expect another round of QE.

Last year many articles appeared that contrasted the bullish gold position of Mr. Paulson with Mr. Soros' decision to start selling his gold, but this year they seem to be on the same wavelength.

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Greyerz: ‘Gold Will Trade Above $2,000 by the End of March'

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:38 AM PST

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that we will see some major fireworks in both the gold and silver markets by the end of March.  Von Greyerz also discussed the extraordinary increase in world money supply.  Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland.  Here is what von Greyerz had to say about what is happening: "We spoke last week and I said gold would begin a strong move to the upside and that's exactly what we've seen.  I also mentioned we should see this strong move in gold continue for at least a month without any significant correction.  We are about $60 higher this week and that was as expected."

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REAL DATA REFUTES RECOVERY PROPAGANDA

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:37 AM PST

  Jesse's assessment:  Biderman: Real Time Economic Data Shows No Recovery, US Dollar Is a 'Phantom.'   "Gold is not a phantom currency as many say, it is the US currency that is the phantom." Charles Biderman, February 27, 2012 Charles Biderman gives a step by step analysis of the key data that some say [...]


Gold November High within Earshot

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:29 AM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com February 28, 2012 03:20 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Continue to look higher towards the November high as long as price is above Monday’s low. A break above the November high shifts focus to the 61.8% extension of the December-January rally low near 1850 and the channel that defines the multi month advance. Monday’s low is key. Bottom Line – higher? (respect the channel)...


The Gold Price Gained $13.47 to Close Comex at $1,787 a New High Close for the Move

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 10:50 AM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1787.00
Change : 13.47 or 0.76%

Silver Price Close Today : 3714.00
Change : 161.6 cents or 4.55%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 48.115
Change : -1.810 or -3.62%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02078
Change : 0.000753 or 3.76%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1716.80
Change : 12.20 or 0.72%

Palladium Price Close Today : 721.75
Change : 19.00 or 2.70%

S&P 500 : 1,372.18
Change : 4.59 or 0.34%

Dow In GOLD$ : $150.44
Change : $ (0.85) or -0.56%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.278
Change : -0.041 or -0.56%

Dow in SILVER oz : 350.16
Change : -15.26 or -4.18%

Dow Industrial : 13,005.12
Change : 23.61 or 0.18%

US Dollar Index : 78.25
Change : -0.321 or -0.41%

Once again today the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE followed a day with higher silver/lower gold by jumping skyward.

The GOLD PRICE gained $13.47 to close Comex at $1,787, a new high close for the move. Gold is pushing through tough thickets here. High at $1,789.34 wasn't much higher than last Thursday's $1,787.18. Clearly resistance is growing as gold moves toward 1805. Gold is tolerably overbought, but shows no sign of breaking yet.

SILVER leapt a huge 4.6% today, 161.6c, to 3714c. Will silver rage forever?

Silver hit the November high about 3960c and never looked back until it closed Comex 161.6c higher at 3714c. Mercy! It's above its 50, 20, 300, and 200 day moving averages, how much more UP could momentum point?

Has silver hit tall cotton permanently? This move might carry as high at 3950c - 4000c, but hard to imagine it rising higher than that.

Arguing against further rise soon is that rising wedge-ish shape on silver's chart, built since mid- and end-December. Today's price hit the upper boundary of that wedge, which stretches us to assume that silver will also punch thru that boundary and keep on rising to 3950c or better. Might, but will have to trade higher that 3745 (today's high) all day tomorrow and hath not the odds on its side.

GOLD SILVER RATIO today dropped to 48.115. Folks keep on writing to ask me if I am still waiting for 57.5 to swap silver for gold. Answer is, I am. Maybe we missed it back in December when it ALMOST traded at 57.5, but I never made money chasing any market. Besides, y'all are in gold now, and it's rising a-plenty. Be patient. When a market is boiling over like silver right now, it tends to soften your brain and cloud your judgment. BICBW, and I often am.

I will be out of town tomorrow and so will not publish a commentary. Back Thursday, D.V.

On Wall Street today jubilators jubilated jubilantly because the Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time since May 2008 when the crisis "began" (I pass over this universally swallowed canard in the interest of time, but y'all understand that the crisis "began" with the real estate bubble bursting, or was it with Greenspan pumping up the money supply to make up for the stock market bubble bursting, or and so on and so on back to the Fed's founding in 1913).

On the other hand, Un-jubilators will notice the large rising wedge in the Dow, sure harbinger of a breakdown to come. Dow gained 23.61 today (0.18%) to close at 13,005.12. S&P500 added 4.59 (0.34%) to 1,372.18.

SPECIAL OFFER

RE-ESTABLISH YOUR OWN GOLD STANDARD.

Back in the days of the gold standard, one US gold dollar virtually equaled two Mexican gold pesos (0.04834 vs. 0.04823 oz), and both were struck in 90% fineness (21.6 karat).

The Mexican Mint, Casa de Moneda de Mexico, has been striking gold and silver coins since 1535, and although Mexico went off the gold standard ages ago, they still mint all the gold coins of the old peso series: 50 pesos, 20 pesos, 10 pesos 5 pesos, 2-1/2 pesos, and 2 pesos.

I like these small Mexican coins because they are small enough to be useful in barter, they're widely traded and recognized, and they carry a low premium over gold content, unlike most small coins. Usually dealers want to charge a high premium for the smaller Mexican coins, too, but I just buy cheap when I can and throw them back until I have a pile.

Now I have a pile, of 2-1/2 pesos (0.0603 oz, about 1/16 oz), 5 pesos (0.1206 oz, about 1/8 oz), and 10 pesos (0.2411, about 1/4 oz).

With spot gold at $1,787, I can sell these at a premium of only 3% over gold content.

Now pay close attention and don't let this confuse you. I am selling these in lots of SIXTY (60) gold pesos (contains 1.4469 oz pure gold). That's 24 each 2-1/2 pesos, or Twelve each five pesos, or Six each ten pesos, or ANY COMBINATION THEREOF amounting to sixty (60) gold pesos (1.4468 oz fine gold),

plus $25 per order shipping.

So 24 ea. Gold 2-1/2 pesos @ $111 ea. = $2,664 + 25 = $2,689.00

Also 12 ea gold 5 pesos at $222 ea. = $2,664 + 25 = $2,689.00

Also 6 ea. Gold 10 pesos at $444 ea. = $2,664 + 25 = $2,689.00

If you want to order a specific mixture, I will fill those orders as they come in, but reserve the right to send any mixture of coins totaling 1.4468 oz fine gold (60 gold pesos) per lot, and will try to put some of the smallest coins into each order.

Yes, you may order as many lots as you please, but I'm sorry, no re-orders or back-orders at these prices. Offer ends when my supply runs out.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will enter orders based on the time I receive your e-mail at .

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. If you want faster shipping, please send a wire.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,787.00. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to . No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and I stumbled and dropped my crystal ball, smashing it to pieces, so we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

7. Mention goldprice.org in your email.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


BeRKSHiRe HaTHaWaY 4-1-9

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 10:27 AM PST

AMERIKAN OLIGARCH

 

.
BULL SHIT RAM

 

.
THE ORACLE

 

.
MEET THE ORACLE

 

.
THE ORACLE 2

 

Warren is out for a stroll

Soon to be swinging the pole

He seems so inflated

His bra over-weighted

This dance will turn into a roll

The Limerick King

.
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY 4-1-9

.

AMERIKAN OLIGARCH (w/Limerick)

 

Warren is talking his book
A guy who sure knows how to cook
A thousand lies told
About owning gold
Another American crook!

The Limerick King

 

.
TODO


When People Come to Believe that Deficits DO Matter

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 09:34 AM PST

Here's a headline for you, Fellow Reckoner:

"Blood and spittle on pub floor, to little avail"

That was on the front page of the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday. No joke. Yep, we're back on Terra Australis. At least we were for a couple of hours. Then we hopped the Tasman for the Land of Birds and/or Long White Clouds, depending who you ask. We've barely slept a wink since we left on Monday.

More on all that when our mind (stuck in a humid Tuesday afternoon reverie back in Argentina) catches up with our body (now floating around somewhere on a rainy Wednesday morning in Auckland).

For the moment, let's just stick to what we know. And what we all know, as anyone worth asking should well know, is that we know nothing at all. But still we guess. Still we reckon…

Stocks continue moving steadily higher. Back in the US, the Dow crept past the 13,000 mark this week…a threshold beyond which it hasn't been seen since May of…gulp…2008. We all remember what happened next, don't we?

By October of that year, despite the rosy predictions of the world's over-degreed, jowl-flapping experts, markets worldwide were in free fall. Wall Street was a mess and getting messier. Bankers weren't yet jumping from the windows…but you got the feeling they were beginning to eye up the best spots on the ledge. The mainstream media, as per usual, was frantically trying to figure out what the Hell was going on. "News" just isn't the correct term for what they peddle. Everything they write about has already happened. "Olds" would be better.

Meanwhile, John Q. Citizen was left standing agape. He had, perhaps, begun to sense that something wasn't quite right in the months and years leading up to the collapse. The house he bought for $250K at the turn of the century had suddenly turned him into a millionaire. Or close. He took the kids on a holiday to Europe and bought a new 4WD. He didn't worry about the price of gas or the cost of milk anymore.

But there was always a suspicious feeling at the back of his mind. He still didn't feel well off. The rich — the real rich — were still way ahead of him, buying things he couldn't afford. And all the middle class people on his street, those he had hoped to leave behind, had been to the same euro-destinations. They had the same SUVs in the driveway and the same plasma televisions hanging on the wall.

"What's the point of being rich if everybody else is rich too?" he might have thought. "How am I supposed to enjoy what everyone can afford? And how come even people with low-paying jobs are living in McMansions not so dissimilar to mine?

"No," he concluded. "Something's not right."

Of course, Johnny and Jannie Citizen were right to be leery. Their questions were understandable. It's the answers that were — and still are — bogus.

The public was told America was the most robust, dynamic economy on earth. They were told that housing prices would rise forever…that deficits didn't matter…and that spending and splurging — rather than saving and capital formation — was what made a nation great. And when he began to doubt the spin, when he made to look behind the curtains, the same mainstream media read aloud to him blockbuster consumer confidence statistics and bumper holiday spending numbers…as if the road to the Mall represented a path to progress…and not the ruin of a nation.

But, as Bill never tires of pointing out, man will come to believe what he must, when he must. Call it the incentive for denial. A powerful motivation. It must have been tough to admit that the riches of the past ten years were largely purchased with earnings from the next decade (and possible the next, too). It's hard to admit the success was phony, the extravagance a scam, the pride a necessary, well-trodden step before the fall. But the check always comes due in the end.

In the US, politicians are currently fighting over who is going to pay for it…or, more accurately, who will not.

Can't cut the euphemistically-named "defense" budget, says the Pentagon. Any such action might imperil "homeland security." Can't cut welfare benefits, say politicking candidates on both sides. The mere mention of such might imperil their own election bids. Healthcare subsidies? Nope. Too many vested interests and greasy palms. Energy initiatives, farm subsidies, education grants, extended unemployment benefits? Nope, nope, nope and nope. Same deal. Too many wolves and too few sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

So who's gonna pay? Nobody. And when nobody pays, everybody does…everybody, that is, except those running up the tab.

Joel Bowman
for The Daily Reckoning

When People Come to Believe that Deficits DO Matter originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.


Darryl Schoon Sees the Mother of All Crashes Coming Soon–02-28-2012

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 09:22 AM PST

Darryl Schoon was way ahead of the curve when in March 2007 he wrote, "How To Survive The Crisis And Prosper In The Process." This paper was prepared for a private club Darryl had joined, The Positive Deviant Network. The report turned out to be quite prophetic, and it helped launch Darryl's career as a major authority in the precious metals and financial survival investment world.

To quote Darryl, "Today, central bankers, the mandarins of capitalism, are in disarray. Their attempts to contain capitalism's current crisis increasingly resemble the tactics of a defeated army in retreat. Like Napoleon and Hitler's respective 'Moscow moments', the 21st century economic crisis has brought to an end the bankers' spectacular 300 year run at the table of power and wealth."

Since 2007, Darryl has not changed his tune in the least bit. He believes the Buck Minster Fuller was spot on by predicting a transformational global economic collapse. Darryl also believes there will be a much better world once this has taken place.

Please fill out the subscription box on KerryLutz.com to receive your free Financial Survival Toolkit.


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2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 09:15 AM PST

Submitted by Mark Grant author of the "Out of the Box" financial commentary

2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

It is a curious world that we live in these days. America bumping along, China grinding down, Europe gaming the system, bonds trading off Treasuries compressing significantly, equities buoyed by new cash and the dearth of decent places to put capital and a risk factor that increases with each ratchet up of the great European pyramid scheme. It was on January 13, 2010 that I said Greece would default and yesterday S&P placed them in default which was so widely expected that the market yawned and turned its attention to the coming European LTRO. I think the markets will be surprised, during the next few weeks, with the consequences of the Greek default but that remains to be seen. In the meantime, despite the ECB's open spigot, one of the major banks in Austria needed to be recapitalized yesterday with Austria not only injecting new capital but taking an almost one billion dollar hit.

We are living in a world these days of semi-transparent "knowns" and great "unknowns" that provide a complexity for investing far past any normal scenario. Not only could the markets be turned on the proverbial dime but they could be violently ratcheted down the cliffs of Dover by any number of possible and not outlier events. Knowing about something and understanding the intended and unintended consequences are two different turns of the screw. As the last several years have unfolded I have noted a progress of events where markets rally on manufactured headlines, calm down and then react negatively as the entire story is understood. A pattern has developed in fact which is why I point out the grave dangers lurking now in the Great Game and why I continue to advise caution and cash as we veer off the bumpers in some strange pinball game that sometimes seems to have been mechanized by some hallucinating artist such as Salvador Dali. Europe continues to just barely pull the cat out of the hat but I shudder at the consequences when the trickery no longer produces the desired effects and the audience catches on to the magician's deceit.

You will recall the days leading into the sub-prime meltdown; easy money, loans without documentation, a massive leveraging up of assets and then the crack in the Earth's surface and the abyss that we faced. When I regard Europe these days I see a repeat of this cycle which now involves sovereign credits and European banks and easy money and loans without documentation and a massive leveraging up of assets and liabilities with unhampered capital provided by the printing presses at the European Central Bank. The similarities are there for all of us that would like to stop and look, which clearly is not many, but then that was also the case during the heady days of the subprime funding madness. First it was Greece and then Ireland and Portugal and now Spain is sinking into the quicksand and asking for better terms so it doesn't have to plunge into even greater fiscal controls and austerity measures and the pressures on the fault lines are increasing dramatically in my opinion.

I point specifically to the reasons for my increasing concern; the European banks are three times larger than the European sovereigns, the ECB is not the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the leading economy in Europe, Germany, is 22% of the economy of America, that there are ever and always consequences for providing free money, that Europe is in a recession and it will be much deeper than thought by many in my view, that the demanded austerity measures are unquestionably worsening the recession and increasing unemployment, that nations become much more self-centered when their economies are contracting and that the more protracted all of this is; the more pronounced Newton's reaction will be when the pendulum reverses course.

Now I am quite used to being ballyhooed. It was on December 27, 2007 when I identified the risks of subprime mortgages and CDO's, my early call on Greece was when their ten year yield 4.38% and while perhaps not of giant intellect I am a reasonably good sleuth. I tout nothing but I warn plenty in an effort to keep all of you out of some gaping hole that is squarely in front of the path that we are taking. It is not gloom and doom that I pull around like Pig Pen's black cloud but a giant warning sign that I plant firmly in the ground which says, "Don't step here." Today I point at Europe and intone once again, "Don't step here."


Norcini – Silver Shorts Literally Panic, Gold Shorts Now Worried

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 09:01 AM PST

Dear CIGAs,

With silver breaking above the $37 level and gold trading $20 higher, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair's chartist Dan Norcini.  Norcini told KWN what we are seeing today is a major breakout in the silver market and panic from the shorts: "Today we are seeing a strong move higher

Continue reading Norcini – Silver Shorts Literally Panic, Gold Shorts Now Worried


The Best Way to Bet Against the Dollar, Richest Man Explains

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 08:52 AM PST

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Tuesday, February 28, 2012 When Warren Buffett speaks about the stock market, I listen. He made his fortune by buying shares of great businesses. And right now, he thinks they're cheap. But in a rare television appearance yesterday, Buffett explained a simple way Americans can bet against the dollar… that has absolutely nothing to do with stocks. He called it, "as attractive an investment as you can make." And yet, you don't need a brokerage account or any real prior investing experience to take advantage of this opportunity… Here's what the greatest investor in history had to say… and why you should seriously consider if this investment is right for you. Warren Buffett became the world's richest man simply from his investment ideas. Now in his 80s, he's fallen a few slots on the list. He's the world's third-richest man. And he loves stocks. So I was surprised by the answer he gave on CNBC when asked whether he'd recommend peop...


Silver Explodes As DJIA Closes Above 13,000

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 08:51 AM PST

After 22 crosses yesterday, and 12 more today, the Dow managed to close above 13000. Transports were lower but less so on Oil's modest retracement (though the Brent-WTI spread remained around $15). While stocks closed modestly higher, volatility and correlation markets remained considerably higher than would be expected and along with quite considerable relative weakness in HYG (the high yield bond ETF) into the close as well as a clear up-in-quality rotation was evident as investment grade credit outperformed notably (not exactly a high-beta risk-on shift). Apple's meteoric rise helped drag Tech to first place overall today and also YTD followed closely (YTD) by financials both up around 14%. The last week or so of slow bleed higher in stocks has notably not been led by a short-squeeze in general - based on our index of most shorted names - but as is becoming more and more clear, divergences (and canaries) are appearing all over the place but we suspect can be traced back to Apple in many cases for its over-weighting impact. Treasuries slid lower (higher in yield) after Europe's close but remain better on the week and modestly flatter across the curve. Aside from a hiccup around the macro data this morning, EUR pushed higher all day against the USD shifting into the green by the US close as JPY stabilized. The USD weakness helped Copper and Gold leak higher but Silver was the massive winner, now up an impressive 4.3% since Friday and 30% YTD as WTI lost $107 and is now down over 3% on the week. The IG rotation coupled with vol decompression makes some (nervous) sense heading into the LTRO results but it seems the new safe-haven trade is Apple (whose option prices are now the most complacent since early 2009).

 

12 more crossovers today and finally we get the much-heralded Dow 13000 close...

with stocks overall led by Apple (tech) and Financials both of which overall remain the best performers YTD...

...but while stocks limped along in a narrow range on 'average' volume, investment grade credit rallied handsomely this afternoon and HYG (the high yield bond ETF) sold off quite significantly (relative to the risk-on sentiment in stocks)...

...and while VIX managed a small down day, overall the vol trend is negative or less exuberant than stocks would infer - especially if we look out across the term structure and wings of the vol surface (and implied correlation)...

It would appear that the momentum-driven excitement has slowed this last week or so and much of that seems to be due to the short-squeeze fanaticism being largely wrung out. Our most-shorted index (in which we took profits) has pulled back to 'fair' with the overall market (orange oval) since inception suggesting much less squeeze pressure (of course that is outside of AAPL).

...and while Treasuries leaked lower (higher in yield) this afternoon and the USD also leaked lower driven mainly by EUR strength, the dispersion in commodities was again the big story with Oil dropping considerably on IAEA chatter and SPR rumors and Silver exploding higher on, well who knows other than high beta catch-up ahead of the LTRO perhaps.

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus chart: Apple's option prices imply the most complacency with regard to downside concerns since May 2009. This chart tracks short-term and long-term options prices implied distribution skew - i.e. how different from a normal distribution are the prices of Apple's options saying its expected returns are going to be... the answer is - the most skewed to the upside (with little concern for downside) in almost 3 years. As an aside, the kurtosis (or fat-tailed expectations for long- and short-term are in line - often a sign of a trend stalling).



Gold Should Be $2100-$2200 RIGHT NOW - Jim Puplava

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 08:47 AM PST

Gold Should Be $2100-$2200 RIGHT NOW - Jim...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website http://goldbasics.blogspot.com for full Content ]]


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Three Less-Obvious Reasons Energy Prices are Rising

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 08:21 AM PST

Addison Wiggin – February 28, 2012

  • Besides Iran and the Fed, three more reasons Byron King says the price of energy is rising
  • Boomtown USA: A micro example from the "Rust Belt" that illustrates the macro revival Byron sees all around
  • Consumers confident, investors itching for more gains: Dan Amoss with a word of caution and a chart to back it up
  • Chinese lawmakers richer than American ones… Wyoming reels in its aircraft carrier plans… give-and-take with Byron King about Keystone XL… lessons from Silly Putty… and more!

The average American is paying 13 cents a gallon more for gasoline than he did a week ago. Gasbuddy.com says the national average price for regular unleaded is $3.67.

A barrel of oil goes for $108.33 this morning — up nearly $12 in February alone.

There is, of course, a "fear premium" caused by the prospect of a New War… and an "inflation premium" caused by the Federal Reserve's monetary promiscuity….

But there are some more onerous factors at work, too. Bureaucracy among them.

A word of warning, if you've got any strains of "free market" blood coursing through your veins, be prepared for those platelets to begin boiling…

"In North America," Byron King explains from his perch in Pittsburgh, "refiners are already processing summer blends of gasoline that meet 'clean air' mandates. There are a multitude of blends, each required in a specific region."

"You can't sell 'Chicago' gasoline in Philadelphia, for example, or 'Seattle' gasoline in Los Angeles. The U.S. is a patchwork of chemically dissimilar fuel blends. It makes for a logistical mess, having to transport specific blends to specific regions."

"That, and every year, we see a late-winter or early-spring spike in oil prices because the 'clean air' gasoline blends require more oil as feedstock. That is, 'clean air' reduces refinery yield."

"So perhaps we have 'cleaner' air (and perhaps not), but at a significant overall increased cost at the pump."

One more less-onerous, less-predictable factor leading to hire gas prices: Europe's bitter-cold winter.

"You may be tired of reading about economic issues in Greece and Italy," says Byron, "but that doesn't mean that they're not still using oil when it's cold."

On a related note: All but three of Japan's 73 nuclear reactors remain offline after Fukushima. "The Japanese," says Byron, "are using more oil to generate electricity and run their industries."

And that's on top of China's exploding consumption. "Just take a look," says Byron, "at one trend that's driving demand (so to speak), namely the skyrocketing numbers for vehicle registrations in China. There's huge growth."

"The only limiting factor for China will be the world's future oil supply — or I should say China's future oil supply from the rest of the world."

In the face of these factors, falling U.S. demand and rising U.S. supply become irrelevant. "You compete for your gallon of gasoline with people from every other nation across the world," says Byron, returning to a theme from last week.

"That is, it's 'your' gallon if you can afford it. When the price of oil goes up and the other issues are factored in — like a cold winter in Europe, and rising Asian demand — the U.S. demand decline pales in significance."

"The bottom line is to expect higher oil prices over the next few years, and higher pump prices as well. Sure, we'll see oil prices rise and fall, because nothing goes up in price forever (except for the cost of medical care and college educations in the U.S., perhaps)."

"But you had better get used to living with oil price volatility and prepare to live your life accordingly."

And invest accordingly.

"There's no doubt there's an energy surge in Washington County," says Jeff Kotula, president of the Washington County, Pa., Chamber of Commerce.

Washington County is smack in the middle of the Marcellus Shale. The Chamber is bragging about 45 economic development projects during 2011… and 24 of them were energy-related. The county is third in the nation in employment growth.

County Commissioner Harlan Shober got a chuckle during a news conference yesterday when he mentioned Gasland, the documentary that's highly critical of the "fracking" process that pulls shale gas from the earth. "Washington County could also be called jobland," he said.

Add Washington County to the long list of U.S. communities seeing a revival thanks homegrown natural gas and oil. Byron says it's not too late for your portfolio to snag a piece of this prosperity, no matter where you live. But for reasons he makes clear, it's best if you move on this in the next two months.

Oddly, U.S. consumers are taking an Alfred E. Neuman approach to gasoline prices.

The Conference Board is out this morning with its numbers on consumer confidence… and the headline figure spiked big this month to 70.8.

That's almost as good as the year-ago figure of 72, which marked a post-2008 high.

Gas prices this time last year averaged $3.35.

Consumers are not alone in their ebullience.

"The idea that we're in an 'economic recovery' has now fully taken hold of investor psyches," says our short strategist Dan Amoss. "As it fades, much of the recent rally will be repealed."

"The recovery idea," Dan says, "is based heavily on coincident and lagging indicators, while the best leading indicators are still negative."

Dan drew our attention back on Sept. 30 to the recession call by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Since then, the economic data that matter to ECRI have gotten worse.

"The economy is weaker today than it has been in 21 months," according to ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview. "In 50-plus years of history… economic growth has never slowed this far without a recession following in short order."

Achuthan's best-case scenario: A "mild recession" on the order of 2001.

"The ECRI model," Dan points out once again, "doesn't issue false alarms. It relies on a robust series of economic metrics. The growth rate is still negative":

"The bullish bandwagon is crowded," Dan surmises. His guidance: "Stick to a contrarian view by holding short positions and accumulating gold mining stocks."

[Ed. Note: Jonas Elmerraji recommended a gold miner this morning to readers of Penny Momentum Trader. He's looking for a short-term gain of 10%, and the gains could be even bigger for more aggressive readers who pursue a call option.]

Gold is pushing toward a four-month high this morning, up to $1,784. Silver's on another tear, up nearly 3%, to $36.52.

"I think this move will continue and we should see at least $2,000 by the end of March," says our friend and Gold Switzerland proprietor Egon von Greyerz in an interview he passed along via email this morning.

"What central banks around the world are trying to do, the Titanic, the world economy, is sinking," he says, "and they can't even rearrange one deck chair. The one deck chair is Greece. Greece isn't solved. In the end, Greece will default."

"In the last 18 months, world money supply has gone up by $10 trillion. There is massive money printing taking place worldwide. So central banks are doing this, but it is the wrong remedy because we are not going to solve anything by printing."

"The forest fire actually needs to burn the whole forest down. This is what needs to happen to the whole world economy. We need to reset the world economy and start again. Iceland is the best example of that, and this is what needs to happen to the whole world."

Meanwhile, John Paulson is telling investors his gold fund will be the best performer in his hedge fund family over the next five years.

"The billionaire," Bloomberg reports, "at a meeting yesterday at the Metropolitan Club in New York, said the metal is the best hedge against currency debasement as countries inject money into their economies, said [a person with knowledge of the matter], who attended the event and asked not to be named because the information is private."

Gold as a hedge against currency debasement? Wow, that's really proprietary information he's got there!

OK, there was one interesting nugget that emerged: Paulson says his own money makes up 55% of the Gold Fund's $1.2 billion in assets.

That's only 5.2% of the $23 billion Paulson's firm manages. At least for now. The percentage will be much more substantial by the time all's said and done.

Once again, major U.S. stock indexes are drifting today. The Dow is playing footsie with 13,000, but could easily be rebuffed, rebuked or rejected outright by day's end.

The S&P has gotten past resistance at 1,365 and as of this writing has reached second base at 1,372

Yesterday, Abe Cofnas suggested a binary-option play on the Dow: Buying a Wall Street 30 12,925 binary and selling-to-open a 12,825 binary.

As I type, the underlying Dow futures are at 12,998. That means one half of Abe's recommendation is in the money — and poised for a $100 payout on Friday! Stay tuned.

In addition to the consumer confidence numbers, traders are chewing on these figures…

  • Durable goods orders: Down huge in January, 4.0% according to the Commerce Department. That's the biggest slump in three years. True, a tax credit expired at year-end 2011 allowing full depreciation on equipment purchases… but this will bear watching
  • Case-Shiller home price index: Down 4% in December to the lowest level since its peak in 2006. That's the 20-city composite. The national figure is even worse, with prices now back to mid-2002 levels.

Along with business savvy and Western fashion, it appears China is adopting another all-American trait: graft for those at the top.

The Hurun Report, a magazine catering to China's wealthy, finds the richest 70 members of the National People's Congress have a combined net worth of $89.8 billion.

That's more than all 535 members of the U.S. Congress… plus the president and his cabinet… and all nine Supreme Court justices. Put together, they're worth a paltry $7.5 billion.

"It is extraordinary to see this degree of a marriage of wealth and politics," says Kenneth Lieberthal of the Brookings Institution.

And he ought to know, working in the belly of the beast.

Wyoming is one step closer to being braced for the apocalypse… but without an aircraft carrier.

As we mentioned yesterday, the Wyoming House passed a bill setting up a committee that would prepare the Equality State for an economic and/or political collapse — including provisions for an alternative currency.

But an amendment that would plan for a military draft, standing army and purchase of an aircraft carrier was stripped from the bill before a second vote.

Too bad.

"My son lives in Wyoming," a reader writes. "I wrote him yesterday to suggest Lake DeSmet [between Sheridan and Buffalo] for the aircraft carrier base."

"When Byron King gets a bug up his 'ear,'" a reader writes from ground zero of the Keystone pipeline debate in Nebraska, "his normally cold logic seems to disintegrate.

"Keystone XL has stated publicly that they already have contracts to sell abroad a huge amount of the oil they wish to get to Houston. Byron's 'maybe' to the fact that a significant amount will be exported shows he has lost his analytic neutrality. So it is utterly ridiculous for him to state that every barrel of Canadian oil satisfies U.S. demand."

"Hello? The oil will go to the highest bidder, period. If the Chinese have a greater thirst for oil — and with our recession, that's likely — then it's a done deal and it's not our oil. Byron, in a moment of rationality, then says we will at least make a few bucks loading it onto the tankers going elsewhere. This will be a spit in the ocean."

"One other point: Keystone XL itself cut a done deal with the Nebraska legislature to plan a safer route. After this deal was completely finalized, and both sides said they were satisfied, it was Congress as a political election year gambit that demanded a virtually immediate decision by the president before the alternate route was even defined. Byron needs to take his uncharacteristic blinders off on this one."

The 5: "One thing's for sure," Byron says in reply. "If the Canadians build the Northern Line to the Pacific Ocean… ALL that oil is getting exported to Asia. All of it. Every last freaking drop."

"The U.S. will never get a chance to buy it… NONE of it, ever… and the U.S. refiners won't refine it… and the U.S. port stevedores won't load it at Houston."

"Face it… like it or no, the U.S. will need lots of oil in the decades to come. Where will we get it? Bakken or no… Marcellus or no… Eagle Ford or no… we're going to import lots of oil. That's the fact, Jack…"

"Thus Keystone (or no) is all about prompting the Canadians to route a large trunk pipeline for the world's largest near-surface hydrocarbon deposit to the Pacific Ocean, instead of the Gulf of Mexico."

"As for Congress tying Obama's hands…. well, who's quoting from the Democrat talking points now??? That's a pretty lame argument… Really. C'mon…"

"In fact, per the Social Security payroll tax extension that Obama signed at the end of 2011, the environmental issues regarding Keystone are legally ended."

"And isn't it rich that the Keystone people have now figured out their own way to play the game. They're 'just' going to build the stretch from Cushing, Okla., to Houston. Very clever, those Canadians. Apparently, there's some adult supervision somewhere."

Indeed, TransCanada plans to go ahead with the southern leg of the pipeline. That ought to add a few more jobs to the U.S. revival Byron sees coming along.

Regards,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. "The legend of the lone inventor in his lab is a myth," writes Jeffrey Tucker, drawing five lessons from the story of Silly Putty in his latest essay for Whiskey & Gunpowder.

"In fact," he writes, "if you look at the history of just about anything from the cotton gin to the telephone to flight itself, you find a raging dispute over who was first. Patents settle nothing: The bureaucrats approving those things mix things up constantly, and much depends on how the lawyers write them."

Mr. Tucker is here in Baltimore today, recording Tucker's Take — the first in a series of videos reviewing some of the most important books in the economic canon of Laissez Faire Books. Think of it as a video guide through the most important ideas in economics — the same ideas that guide, inspire and lead our editors to their best investment recommendations.

If you're wondering, the video of Jeffrey's debate with Dean Baker on the proper role of the Federal Reserve is now available for your viewing pleasure. Just scroll down on the Laissez Faire Books homepage.

We expect Mr. Tucker to be a rousing addition to our regular crew this summer in Vancouver. Early registration is already available. Details here.


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Roars Higher

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 08:18 AM PST


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If Gold Coud Talk

Posted: 28 Feb 2012 07:58 AM PST

Have you ever had any doubts about gold? Does it sometimes feel like it should be performing better? Are you concerned about its volatility? Do you worry about how it might perform in the future? Read More...



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