Gold World News Flash |
- Economic Collapse a Mathematical Certainty - Top 5 Places Where Not To Be
- Caesar Bryan - Tidal Wave of Gold Buying as Confidence Lost
- Gold Sees 4th Largest Monthly Gain Since 2000
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed
- Nick Santiago – If You Have Some Extra Money Buy Silver – 01-31-2012
- Gresham’s Law and the Venezuela Gold Recovery
- 47 Signs That China Is Absolutely Destroying America On The Global Economic Stage
- January Ends. What Will February Bring?
- Sunday Night Sentiment
- Collapse Confirmation News: Global Economic RESET
- Gold Bullion Coin Sales Soar By 94% In January As Confidence In The Dollar Crumbles
- The Silver Market and Inflation
- Mickey Fulp’s Monthly Market Wrap-Up – 01-31-2012
- Video: A new investigation reveals that taxpayer-owned mortgage giant, Freddie Mac, made multi-billion-dollar investments that profited if borrowers stayed stuck in high-interest mortgages
- Goldilocks Is Back - China PMI Rises To 50.5, Modest Beat Of Expectations, Shy Of Whisper Number
- Gold Surges 13.9% in January
- Calandra – Vancouver Attendees Fear Missing New Bull Run
- ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Assoc.): "Someone is broke"
- Monthly Gold Charts - January 2012
- Rule – Bad 2011 Leads to Good 2012 for Small Miners
- The Gold Price Gained $6.80 Pushing Through $1,740 Resistance
- U.S. Can NOT Avoid Coming Economic Collapse ? No Matter What! Here?s Why
- Gold knocking on the door of resistance at $1750
- The Five Stages Of Collapse
- Gold, Silver Winning 2012 Asset Return Race With 11 Months Left
- Mining Stocks Yet to Go Up Decisively
- Rippling Impacts of Iran Oil Embargoes
- David Morgan, The “Silver Guru” of “The Morgan Report” Explains Why He is “More Bullish on Silver Now” Silver Summit Conference 2011 Video Interview
- Persistent Questions About the Future of the US Economy
- A Vain Search for Yield
| Economic Collapse a Mathematical Certainty - Top 5 Places Where Not To Be Posted: 31 Jan 2012 04:28 PM PST  The dollar collapse will be the single largest event in human history. This will be the first event that will touch every single living person in the world. All human activity is controlled by money. Our wealth,our work,our food,our government,even our relationships are affected by money. No money in human history has had as much reach in both breadth and depth as the dollar. It is the de facto world currency. All other currency collapses will pale in comparison to this big one. All other currency crises have been regional and there were other currencies for people to grasp on to. Read more.... 
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Caesar Bryan - Tidal Wave of Gold Buying as Confidence Lost Posted: 31 Jan 2012 04:01 PM PST  Today King World News interviewed 25 year veteran Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund. Gabelli & Company has $31.3 billion under management and has been around for 34 years. Caesar Bryan has managed the gold fund since its inception in 1994. Caesar had this to say regarding a loss of confidence in the system: "When I started managing gold equities in 1987, gold was in the process of being demonetized. By that I mean central banks were selling. That's changed. After a long and painful experience, central banks are now adding to gold. With the 'Great Moderation' over, people are now beginning to question the money. This is really a very serious situation. Confidence is hard to get and easy to lose, and I hope the authorities are aware of that."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold Sees 4th Largest Monthly Gain Since 2000 Posted: 31 Jan 2012 04:00 PM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com January 30, 2012 04:21 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT January’s rally was the 4th largest since 2000 and largest since August (2011). Of course, the metal plunged the following month (September). One has to go back to November 2009 to find the next best month (13.21%). Guess what? Gold plunged in December 2009. The December high at 1770.50 is the next resistance. A drop under 1727 would shift focus to 1717 and 1706. Bottom Line – flat...
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed Posted: 31 Jan 2012 04:00 PM PST Gold climbed to $1747.60 by a little after 9AM EST before it fell back to $1726.30 by late morning in New York, but it then bounced back higher in afternoon trade and ended with a gain of 0.63%. Silver surged to as high as $34.10 before it fell back to $32.952 and then also bounced back higher in late trade, but it still ended with a loss of 0.99%.
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| Nick Santiago – If You Have Some Extra Money Buy Silver – 01-31-2012 Posted: 31 Jan 2012 03:15 PM PST from The Financial Survival Network:
Click Here to Listen to the Podcast
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gresham’s Law and the Venezuela Gold Recovery Posted: 31 Jan 2012 03:01 PM PST from WealthCycles:
Gresham's Law hasn't been violated since the dawn of money, and any time a government introduces a shaky currency to float alongside precious metals, the precious metals lie in wait (which is what happens when we invest in precious metals) until they revalue at a much higher price.
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| 47 Signs That China Is Absolutely Destroying America On The Global Economic Stage Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:58 PM PST from The Economic Collapse Blog:
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com
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| January Ends. What Will February Bring? Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:50 PM PST from TFMetalsReport.com:
OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things: Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:45 PM PST by Andrew Hoffman, MilesFranklin.com:
MONDAY AFTERNOON MARKET ALERT Way to go, ADMIRAL SPROTT! Less than two weeks ago, our fearless leader announced a $349 million offering of PSLV, the Sprott Physical Silver Trust, and since then gold rocked $5.00/oz higher, Cartel suppression and all. This afternoon, post market close, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, or PHYS, announced an overnight offering of up to $200 million, to purchase PHYSICAL gold tomorrow morning. Unlike the PSLV offering, which was open-ended as to pricing, the PHYS offering memorandum states the deal will be priced at $15.19-$15.24/share, slightly below today's closing price of $15.34/share, which would push its market cap up to $2.3 billion. Today's closing price represented a 5.0% premium to Net Asset Value, so the deal (as has been the case for EVERY offering of the five closed-end bullion funds PHYS, PSLV, CEF, GTU, and SVRZF) will be accretive to current shareholders. Last year, PHYS also closed an offering very near the previous day's closing price, so I am highly confident this deal, too, will be a smashing success. As I described in last week's RANT, Eric Sprott is a man on a mission to destroy the Cartel, much like myself but with the financial firepower to back up his knowledge and passion. Do not underestimate the extent of damage he can cause the Cartel, which in my view is on the verge of breaking down to start with.
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| Collapse Confirmation News: Global Economic RESET Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:20 PM PST |
| Gold Bullion Coin Sales Soar By 94% In January As Confidence In The Dollar Crumbles Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:16 PM PST According to the latest production figures from the U.S. Mint, January sales of American Gold Eagle bullion coins soared by 93.8% over the previous month. A total of 127,000 ounces were sold in January compared to 65,500 ounces in December 2011. The surge in demand for gold bullion coins is now at the highest level [...]
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| The Silver Market and Inflation Posted: 31 Jan 2012 02:15 PM PST
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| Mickey Fulp’s Monthly Market Wrap-Up – 01-31-2012 Posted: 31 Jan 2012 01:55 PM PST from The Financial Survival Network:
The great news is Mickey's Market Wrap-Up will become a monthly feature at FSN, and few people are as qualified to give the opinion as the Mercenary Geologist himself. Click Here to Listen to the Podcast
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 12:11 PM PST Taxpayer-Funded Freddie Mac Caught Betting Billions Against Struggling American Homeowners
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| Goldilocks Is Back - China PMI Rises To 50.5, Modest Beat Of Expectations, Shy Of Whisper Number Posted: 31 Jan 2012 12:09 PM PST China's goal-seeked economy performed admirably in January, and its Manufacturing PMI came absolutely golidlocks at 50.5, an increase from 50.3, previously, just modestly beating Wall Street expectations of a slight contraction of 40.6, yet a less than earlier whisper numbers which put it at 52. As such, thereis absolutely no indication if the PBoC will further tighten or ease in the next month, just as the PBoC likes it, because while many have been demanding easing in the last several weeks, and especially the housing market, the reality is that hot pockets of inflation still remain. Furthermore, the last thing China needs is to proceed with full on easing just as Bernanke goes ahead and launches QE x which will export more hot money, and thus inflation, to China than anywhere else, with the possible exception of gold. And here are some observations from Bloomberg's Michael McDonough:
PMI charted:
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 11:47 AM PST Gold had a rather stellar January, posting a 13.9% monthly gain based on the LBMA PM fixings of 1531.00 on 31-Dec-11 and 1744.00 on 31-Jan-12. That's a bigger gain than the yellow metal achieved for the entirety of last year!
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| Calandra – Vancouver Attendees Fear Missing New Bull Run Posted: 31 Jan 2012 10:34 AM PST Our long-time friend Thom Calandra writes a post-Vancouver-mortem for his BabyBulls.com interation, saying in part: "I attended more show-and-tells by resource chieftains than I ever have at Joe Martin's Vancouver Investment Show. That's why I call it The Joe Show; Mr. Martin is like Ed Sullivan). The conference maestro had a broadcast centre with slick TV talent. (Well, the lady that interviewed me hit nails on the heads with every question — see it.) Joe had a bull from NYC; Zimtu Capital paid part of the cost for that centerpiece. Mr. Martin had debates; a speaker dinner; probably 600 companies exhibiting; and quite a few thousand people, even as rains assailed downtown for 72 hours. "Our biggest show by far," said Mr. Martin, who has been staging natural resources shows since the 1990s. Okay, I still sensed fear there. But this time, I swear, it was fear of missing The Great Resources Run. It was a real scrum, I tell ya." Our ears (eyes?) perked up when we read that next to last sentence Thom. It is uncanny because we have been hearing from a much larger than normal number of our trading brethren and readership in recent days. Most are no longer writing out of fear of what stocks they are in, but instead out of fear that they have missed the bottom in stocks they are out of. We just remind all and sundry that if this is the beginning of a new run, then by definition there is a long way to go. To catch Mr. Calandra's entire Vancouver post-mortem (except there is nothing "mortemous" about it), just follow the hyperlink below. Source: CambridgeHouse.com and BabyBulls.com
Photo: Thom Calandra
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| ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Assoc.): "Someone is broke" Posted: 31 Jan 2012 10:03 AM PST PAY ATTENTION HERE: This even has the potential to cause a second financial crisis that would require significant financial intervention. If you have time to spare, listen to this interview. If you don't have time to spare, listen to it anyway. So Be It By Dave in Denver, The Golden Truth "Fiat:" an arbitrary decree or pronouncement, especially by a person or group of persons having absolute authority to enforce it: The king ruled by fiat - dictionary.comThe big topic of discussion in the cyberworld today was an interview with Jim Sinclair, who discussed an imminent ruling by ISDA - the board of OTC derivatives rules and enforcement - which would pronounce that any massive haircut in value taken by Greek bondholders would not constitute an event of default. This is not new information, as it was reported as far back as October that ISDA would make this declaration once the a Greek restructuring occurred. And it will occur despite the poker game going on, because if Greece defaults, then ISDA will have its fiat powers stripped by market forces when Greek sovereign paper goes offered without any bid (i.e. worthless). You can hear Sinclair's interview at http://www.jsmineset.com/" What bothered me was that Sinclair made ISDA sound like some dark, mysterious force out there that was largely hidden but imbued with supernatural powers. ISDA has been around forever. I used ISDA documents when we would engage in high yield bond swaps with funds like Harvard Investments in order to hide positions from the back office risk Nazis at year-end. It was de rigeur back then. It's rampant beyond control now. The problem with ISDA is that it is governed by the same banks that stand to benefit the most from ISDA rule declarations: the big banks that have been declared by fiat as "too big to fail" by Team Bernanke/Obama (really, just Team Bernanke, but Obama reads the script off the teleprompter like a good circus animal). So, in the Greek bond situation, what you have is a situation where big hedge funds and money market funds have loaded up the boat with short term Greek sovereign paper at high yields (and Italian/Spanish/Portuguese, etc), and bought OTC derivative credit default protection in the even of default. The way this works, if Greece is unable repay its bonds at a minimum of some small discount to face value, or if Greece defaults outright, the issuer of the credit derivative - the big bank in most cases - has to make the investor whole. On $10's of billions in Greek debt with credit protection issued, it can get expensive for the big banks. To make matters even more interesting, there has been been outright speculation on Greek debt in which a hedge fund will bet on a Greek default by buying a fancy derivative from a big bank such that the hedge fund doesn't even have to own any bonds and it will still get paid. It's like buying a put option on a stock betting it will go down without actually owning the stock. Again, in the event that Greece has to "restructure" its debt at 30-50 cents on the dollar, or outright defaults, the big banks would have to cough up $10's of billions in "default insurance" payments. But there's a way around this. It's called rule by fiat (see the above definition of "fiat"). Since the banks control the rules and procedures of ISDA, if they determine that a Greek restructuring which requires a 50-70% haircut on the debt held by investors is not really a "default" event, so be it. The Greek bond investor will be coerced into receiving a new bond that will be in the range of 30-50% of the face value of the original bond, thereby getting hammered on its investment, and the big bank who got paid a handsome premium to underwrite default insurance on that paper will get to keep the money it was paid and it will not have to make obligatory restorative payments to the investor. Isn't it good to be King in a completely fiat system? The problem with the fiat currency and financial system is that eventually it turns into one giant Ponzi scheme. The politically/socially correct term for this would be "a fractional banking and financial system." It's a system based on "full faith and trust." When the trustworthiness of this system starts to fade, investors will start to move "fiat" money into hard asset currency - that is, gold and silver, the world's oldest and most trustworthy hard asset currency. It's happening now, only it's a lot more prevalent in the eastern hemisphere countries like China, Russia and India. In our own backyard, Venezuela demonstrated this movement by recalling nearly 100% of its sovereign gold that was being "safeguarded" by big banks in NY, London and Zurich: LINK Hugo Chavez, love him or hate him, is one smart hombre. Gold and silver are on the cusp of another big explosive move higher. James Turk in his latest commentary on King World News said it best: Regarding gold, I don't think people realize that gold could explode from current levels. I think the potential for explosion is there and what you are going to see is not only silver on the move, but you will also see gold smash through the $2,000 levelHere's the LINK. If you don't understand why Turk makes these comments, re-read my commentary above. If you still don't understand why, so be it. Unfortunately, by the time the masses understand this, gold and silver will likely be too high in terms of fiat currency price for them to buy enough to matter. It is what it is... Somebody is broke...do you know who? Does it really matter? by Bill Holter, GATA, [lemetropolecafe.com] subscribe! To all; Jim Sinclair did an interview yesterday with Ellis Martin http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/01/30/the-impending-undeclared-default-of-5-major-us-banks/ The subject of the interview is nothing new as we we were already aware that the big banks are broke, what IS news is that Mr. Sinclair believes that THIS week is "when" it happens. Well...not the bankruptcies of course but a "decision" by the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Assoc.) will make regarding the "non default" or "trigger" of Greek debt. This has been written and talked about for months on end, the 5 largest banks in the U.S. have written 97% of the CDS (credit default swaps) on the planet. Think about this for a moment, were one (which would lead to many) defaults occur at the same time, we would have another AIG situation. However, this time it would be "AIG cubed, times 5"! The banking system would then be ..."officially" bankrupt rather than bankrupt for all intents and purposes. It is this decision by the ISDA that Mr. Sinclair believes will be made this week that will (and has already) lead to more massive QE money printing to liquify the system in the hopes of putting enough cushion in ahead of time for whatever reaction comes about. He is talking about 10 or more "MF Globals" in the near future where sovereign debt was purchased, then hedged, yet the "hedges" have been made worthless because ISDA refuses to "admit" that default occured. THIS really is a big problem! Someone, somewhere is broke. Will it be the "writers" of the insurance? Or the "buyers"? Well, let me clear this up for you, IT DOESN'T MATTER! This is like saying you went to an orgy with 20 people and 1 of them had AIDS. Does it really matter who it was? Actually, this is a great metaphor for Europe at present, no bank trusts any other bank and thus interbank lending has basically ceased to exist. Then, going one step further, if the European banks don't trust each other, why would any other non European bank trust them? "Someone is broke" is a fact and because the global financial system truly is "global", this means they, (thus "we") are ALL broke! Period, end of story! Which leads us back to broken record time. Nothing paper has the true value as is perceived today. Either they allow bankruptcies to occur as Mother Nature demands or they print $ Trillions more and throw it on top of the already raging bonfire. We know which choice will be made, TPTB will not ever admit defeat nor give up "power" willingly, they will print until the cows come home and the currencies approach zero. What we do not know is how long investors will leave their heads in the sand. Do they wake up and panic or continue their oblivious ways while $1,000 is not enough to purchase a Happy Meal? I have believed all along that a panic will happen first, then and only then we will get a revaluation of the currencies. Can we go down the Weimar road for 2,3, 4 more years? Yes but I still believe that the "structure" and leverage of the current system makes an "accident" along the way very, very likely. Again though, does it really matter? Matter how? How you will prepare and protect yourselves with "precious metals everything" of course! No, no matter how this plays out, in a currency/debt crisis such as this, REAL MONEY is your best safe haven. Whether it is this week as Mr. Sinclair says or 6 months from now, "they" will have to decide what road we will take. Deny everything, admit to nothing and print...or call reality for what it is and let bankruptcys roll around the planet like atom bombs. It doesn't matter "when or how", what really matters is what you have done and are doing to prepare for it! Regards, Bill H. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), has the final say on whether a "credit event" has occurred, triggering the payment of default insurance taken out on Greek bonds via the credit default swap …Daily Telegraph · 1/21/2012 ___________________________ Bottom line: A declared NON-default is still a default to those that own the bonds that are given a "haircut"...much will be lost in the way of fiat money by many. The only way to make up what is lost, is to print more fiat to replace what is lost. This is bad for the Dollar...PERIOD! ...and great for the Precious Metals! Got Gold you can hold? Got Silver you can squeeze? It is not too late to accumulate! 
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| Monthly Gold Charts - January 2012 Posted: 31 Jan 2012 10:00 AM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] ...
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| Rule – Bad 2011 Leads to Good 2012 for Small Miners Posted: 31 Jan 2012 09:54 AM PST Our good friend and savvy trader/financier Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investments (GRIL) says in an interview with King World News: "I see the next couple of years as being interesting in a positive sense for metals buyers and gold and silver share buyers. … Last year was a dismal market, which is, paradoxically, one of the reasons why this year will be pretty good." Mr. Rule continued: "We're coming off a low base and there are very low expectations and the valuations are extremely reasonable. … It will not take much of a move to generate a pleasant surprise to the upside and get some emotion coming back into this market." We note that Rick's comments dovetail nicely with our post of earlier today. In the post previous to this one entitled Small Miner Reversal Possibly Underway we said: "What we can say with more than a little confidence is that from the very low, panic levels that many of our Guru-chosen small miners and explorers were driven to in the October – December near panic and horrible tax loss selling event; ... from the depths of the hellish negative liquidity event of 2011, it really doesn't take all that much buying pressure to move these promising junior miners – in quite large percentages." Knowing that Mr. Rule is more or less on the same team with us is a great comfort. "This is shaping up to be a very good market," the highly respected veteran trader said. To listen to the full, worthwhile interview, including Rule's views on gold and silver, follow the link below.
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| The Gold Price Gained $6.80 Pushing Through $1,740 Resistance Posted: 31 Jan 2012 09:33 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1737.80 Change : 6.80 or 0.39% Silver Price Close Today : 3323.30 Change : 36.20 cents or -1.08% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.291 Change : 0.766 or 1.49% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01912 Change : -0.000284 or -1.47% Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.80 Change : -40.00 or -2.47% Palladium Price Close Today : 685.35 Change : -3.15 or -0.46% S&P 500 : 1,312.39 Change : -0.62 or -0.05% Dow In GOLD$ : $150.27 Change : $ (0.83) or -0.55% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.269 Change : -0.040 or -0.55% Dow in SILVER oz : 380.12 Change : 3.47 or 0.92% Dow Industrial : 12,632.68 Change : -21.04 or -0.17% US Dollar Index : 79.81 Change : 0.023 or 0.03% Y'all have observed with me, over the last year or so, that a day when silver drops a little and the GOLD PRICE rises a little, is often followed by a day when both shoot up. Today the SILVER PRICE dropped 26.4c to 3323.3c, after making a slightly higher high at 3407c. Now, that might be might form the first half of a key reversal down (new intraday high and lower close, followed by lower close next day), but it might not. Silver still held up at 3300c, and never sank lower than 3292. Cut silver some slack! It's butting its head against a big downtrend line from the August high, and it's still above its uptrend line from the 29 December low. We're warned, it MIGHT drop, but if it works its way through 3400c resistance, y'all can kiss silver good-bye because it will shoot skyward. But silver must hold 3292c. While silver was dropping 26.4c, the GOLD PRICE gained $6.80 to $1,737.80, chugging on up a mighty steep mountain. More, gold pushed through $1,740 resistance to $1,747.32 (knocking hard on $1,750) and easily caught a downspike to $1,725.90, proving that support. Like the SILVER PRICE, should the GOLD PRICE punch through $1,750, all the shorts will flee in panic, clutching their wallets. On the other hand, today also told you that gold cannot afford weakness at $1,725. In bull markets these rallies always climb a wall of worry. People keep asking me if they should buy here, or buy half here and wait to see if metals will drop. First place, I don't know any more than you do. I'm handsome and tall, but I ain't Nostradamus. Second place, as a practical matter I've watched my customers (learned almost as much from them as I have from my children) and those who do best are those who just buy when they have the money, and come back and keep on buying. They don't get too worked up or nervous about where the market is, because they are riding the primary trend for the long term. And that works right well. At least, they're not like me, stuck here sweating that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. One tiny straw in the wind that suggests metals might not have a great day tomorrow is the nearly 1.5% rise in the gold/silver ratio today. Still waiting for 57.5. Musing back over the yen's performance yesterday, and recalling the current buzz among Those Who Must Talk Whether Mentating Or Not, Asian stocks also rose yesterday, "on Greek Debt Deal Talks" and Japanese industrial production grew faster than economists estimated. A statement so obtuse, so wanting in causal connection, stinks of the same Bimbo Financial Journalism that moved that Canadian TV commentatoress to say gold wasn't a good investment "because it wasn't backed by anything like the US dollar is." Point is, tons of hot money slosheth around the world looking for a likely place to light, hungry for return, and stupidly harkening to the latest news and commentary, groundless though they be. Investment du jour (IdJ) today is US stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Bernanke's indigestion is improving. Tomorrow the IdJ will be European stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Ferkel and Sarcophagus are no longer miffed at each other. Besides, the planets are lining up and Pisces is ascendant in the Fishbowl. And the Japanese are switching to rice from wheat. I'll be glad when the adults come back and take charge again. Okay, I can't dodge it; let's look at today's markets. Now I've heard of heads and shoulders, upside down and right side up, triangles, boxes, wedges, spikes, and double and triple tops, but I don't recall seeing many Big Ws before. Be that as it may, there 'tis on the US Dollar Index chart, a Big W. Breaks down and begins at 79.50, drops to 78.75, rises to 79.45, drops yet again to 78.75, then today rises to 79.50. Man, that's either a PERFECT double bottom, or it's the Nice Government Men painting the tape. What do y'all reckon? Mattereth not. Implication is that a dollar close above 79.50 turns the dollar higher, a close below 78.75 pulls the plug. Dollar index today rose 11.8 magnificent basis points (0.15%, for those of y'all with magnifying glasses) to 79.285. Could it turn and resume its rally from here? Might, but I think the NGM in Japan, Europe, and the US have the dollar on the run, and want to keep it there. After all, a Greek Debt Deal may be near. Disappointing its partisans, the euro today was chipped and clipped for 0.46%, closing down at 1.3080. It's bouncing off its 62 day moving average, a significant moving average for the euro. Also backed through through the 50 DMA today (131.06). Nothing here suggests the euro is NOT headed higher. As the mysterious schools of investment herring switch from east to west, the Yen rose again today by 0.17% to 131.19c/Y100 (Y76.22/US$1). I am so suspicious it's scary. Scares even me. I keep looking at the dollar selling at about 130 eurocents and about 130 yen, and I keep thinking, "Now isn't that just like Nice Government Men! They pick some silly target number that makes it obvious to a blind man what they're doing, forgetting that nature doesn't round." This looks like a target range ginned up in a meeting over rubber chicken in Basel at the BIS. The smell of the sickroom hovereth yet over stocks. A few indices rose today, but the S&P500 and the Dow were not among them. Dow lost 21.04 points (0.17%) to settle at 12,632.68. S&P500 perched at 1,312.39, down 0.62 point or 0.05%. Folks, y'all lay a ruler across the tops of Thursday, Friday, and on through today. I'll show you a failed breakout attempt today, but nothing else to fertilize respect or optimism. I'll give it this: if the Dow can better 12,700, and the S&P can better 1,320, stocks MIGHT have a chance to creep or crawl higher. Creep or call, not found new inter-generational wealth transfers. But mostly, stocks want to drop. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. 
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| U.S. Can NOT Avoid Coming Economic Collapse ? No Matter What! Here?s Why Posted: 31 Jan 2012 09:30 AM PST [INDENT] [/INDENT] Snyder goes on to say, in part: If the government*suddenly started spending only the money that it actually brought in every year, our economy would be doomed and all of this “false prosperity” would rapidly disappear… [but conversely,] if the U.S. government continues to rack up debt at this pace we are doomed. In fact, every dollar that gets borrowed makes our eventual collapse ever worse. We are heading down the exact same road that Greece has gone. Eventually the rest of the world is not going to lend us gigantic mountains of super cheap money anymore. When the flow of cheap money stops, it*[will] be extremely painful…If we had addressed these problems as a nation a decade or two ago, perhaps we could have found a solution but now there is no way out under our current financial system and a devastating economic collapse is on the horizon no matter what we do. Look at Greece. They were forced by the EU and the IMF to dramatica...
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| Gold knocking on the door of resistance at $1750 Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:53 AM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] One thing in particular that really stands out to me in today's trading session is the resilience of the gold market even as the safe haven trades were being put back on by a decent sized contingent of traders. The Euro got knocked down about 50 points and the US Dollar saw a pop higher as traders were expressing signs of nervousness over both Greece and now Portugal. Additionally, the long bond rallied up nearly a full point and is once again at the top end of a trading range that is now three months in duration. This combined with the fact that Euro Gold is extremely strong tells us that gold is attracting a fairly large amount of safe haven flows itself and is not being impacted all that much by the risk aversion trades which hit silver, copper and platinum today. If this sort of thing keeps up, it will make it much more difficult for the bears to prevent $1750 from being breached. A str...
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:47 AM PST Here is a great article that discusses the 5 stages of a collapse that relates it to gold and silver. Its a long read but worth a scan since there are some great chart. Full article here.
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| Gold, Silver Winning 2012 Asset Return Race With 11 Months Left Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:37 AM PST Gold outperformed (+0.5%) today (as the rest of its commodity peers lost ground on USD strength today) and Copper and Silver underperformed. But for January, Silver is the clear winner in the global asset return race (at almost a 20% gain) with Gold in 2nd place at around +11.2%. JGBs and the DXY (USD) along with UK Gilts and Oil lost the most ground among the major assets we track. The outperformance of the precious metals as the dollar ebbed along with the general 'last year's losers were January's winners' and vice-versa was evident as Asia Ex-Japan and EM equities surged along with Nasdaq (and Copper). Long-dated Treasuries have just limped into the money for the year as they rallied dramatically today - ending the day at their low yields (new record 5Y lows) with 30Y now -12bps on the week. FX markets gave a little of the USD strength back in the afternoon but the rally in stocks was almost entirely unsupported by risk assets in general (as it seemed like a desperate low-volume try to push ES back to VWAP into the close to hold the 50/200DMA golden cross in SPX) after this morning's dismal macro data. Financials rallied to fill some Friday close gaps but gave some back into the close as CDS inched wider and Energy underperformed as Oil came almost 3% off its early morning highs (managing to crawl back above $98 by the close). IG credit outperformed as HY and stocks were largely in sync but open to close, credit outperformed stocks on a beta basis (after overnight exuberance in stock futures faded).
Selected asset returns YTD (leaving Silver out due to its significant outlier nature on the y-axis at almost 20%) shows the reds (last year's losers) have tended to outperform and the greens (last year's winners) have underperformed in January. The dotted lines tended to be assets that moved only modestly and its clear that SPX and NDX have done well among that group.
A little tighter focus just on the US and precious metals shows an interesting limping lower post Bernanke in Stocks while PMs and Bond surged (perhaps QE was priced in or simply losing its mojo).
ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) managed to inch back up to VWAP (red oval) and then sell-off modestly into the close as heavy volume came in.
Once again we see ES tickled up by the algos to enable heavy institutional sell orders (much higher average trade size) at VWAP. This rally of the afternoon was not supported by any broad risk driver as Treasuries closed at low yields (and flattest curves), FX carry only just off its lows, and commodities weak with only credit (which we suspect was just being virtuously reracked as we heard volumes were thin in CDX). This dislocation is evident from the CONTEXT chart below, where correlations had been very high all day and fell apart as stocks rallied in the afternoon:
HYG and VXX also underperformed SPY but despite a surge in volumes in cash at the very close today, volumes in January for stocks were ridiculously low on average.
Gold pushed higher all afternoon as its peers stabilized in the red for the day. Copper and Silver have resynced for now and Gold has become much less correlated.
Chart of the day goes to Treasuries in our view though as the sell-off yesterday afternoon and overnight was entirely rejected as macro data in the US along with desperation in the Greek PSI drove safe haven flows (and perhaps some month-end rebalancing) into the entire complex with the long-end (duration baby) benefiting most.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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| Mining Stocks Yet to Go Up Decisively Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:36 AM PST According to Goldman Sachs, gold provided the best returns of all commodities in the past five years when adjusted for volatility and says the rally will continue as options traders signal no change in the metal's relatively low risk. Read More...
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| Rippling Impacts of Iran Oil Embargoes Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:35 AM PST Synopsis: The effects of European and American embargoes on Iran's oil will extend far beyond global oil prices.
There's no doubt that the price of oil is important and deserves comment. But as both embargoes take effect, they will create a ripple of impacts across the oil markets that go beyond just price. From European refinery closures to a Greek default, the impacts of the embargoes would spread far beyond Iran. Let's start with Greece. Athens has been vocal in its concern about the embargoes, as Iran has become a key supplier to the economically beleaguered country. Greece's existing contracts with Iran do not require financial guarantees, providing Athens with much-needed flexibility. To date, none of Greece's other suppliers have been willing to work on such terms, which left Greece buying 100,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day to feed 30% of its demand. Greece's reliance on Iran is the main reason that the EU embargo does not take full effect until July 1; the bloc intends to find alternate suppliers in that time. That seemed like a workable solution until Tehran started threatening to cut off supplies to Europe immediately. No one really expects Iran to stop selling oil to its major European customers unless it absolutely has to do so, which means supplies heading to Italy and Spain are fine. Halting sales to Greece, though, is a weapon Iran could decide to fire. Iran could handle losing a 100,000-barrel-per-day customer in exchange for the financial mayhem that could ensue: The loss of access to 30% of its supplies and its only highly flexible supplier could well prove the final straw for Greece, and as we all know the consequences of a Greek debt default would spread far and wide, across the European sovereign bond market and to the euro. So Greece is definitely a concern with respect to the Iranian sanctions. Europe's refiners are also losing sleep over the looming EU embargo, which threatens to accelerate refinery closures in Europe. Piero de Simone, head of Italy's refiners' lobby, said this in an interview with Reuters: Asian countries not applying the embargo could buy the Iranian oil at a discount and sell cheap refined products back to us. Italy already risks the closure of five refineries and at a European level we're talking about 70 possible shut downs. The problem is not only that Asian refiners might take advantage of exclusive access to cheaper Iranian oil to undercut Europe's refiners, but also that the playing field is becoming uneven at a time when Europe's refiners are already struggling with overcapacity and falling fuel demand. Petroplus Holdings AG, a refiner with five plants across Europe, declared insolvency last week after banks called in loans. De Simone says unless the EU creates a protection mechanism for its refiners the bloc will face a "precipitous end similar to Petroplus' for many European refineries." Small refineries will be hit the hardest because they do not benefit from economies of scale when margins fall. Refining margins from processing Brent crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products already fell to a loss of 26₵ a barrel in December from a profit of 51₵ a month earlier, according to a mid-January report from the International Energy Agency. Keeping on the infrastructure theme, another industry that will struggle with the Iranian embargoes is the shipping industry. EU sanctions on Iranian oil will extend to about 95% of the world's tanker fleet because they are insured under rules governed by European law. The International Group of P&I Clubs insures all but 5% of the world's tankers, and its 13 member clubs use European rules to govern their claim-sharing pool. Carrying Iranian oil would invalidate ships' coverage against risks such as spills and collisions. This is an aspect of the EU embargo that certainly spreads the effects far beyond the bloc's 27 member states. Another talking point starting to surface with some regularity around the Iranian issue is whether EU countries will tap into their strategic reserves to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil. We mention this here only to emphasize that strategic reserve releases can only ever have limited, short-term effects. According to the European Commission – which coordinates maintenance of these emergency stocks – the bloc's 25 nations excluding Romania and Bulgaria had total oil reserves of 134.5 million tonnes. That is equivalent to just 120 days of demand if the stocks were totally drained, which countries would never do. An announcement that Italy or Spain were tapping strategic reserves would likely push Brent crude oil prices down, but the impact would be relatively small and within a few weeks would have worn off completely. And finally, let's talk about oil supply, demand, and prices. Iran sells 2.6 million barrels of oil per day into the global markets, representing 3% of world supply. The embargoes may be aimed at halting that flow completely, but the more likely scenario is that much of Iran's crude oil will continue to flow to customers willing to violate or find ways around the rules. The two biggest such customers? China and India, who as Iran's only major clients will be able to buy oil at reduced prices. India recently declared publicly that it will not cut back on oil imports from Iran, because its emerging economy needs the supply. As for the rest of the world, prices will rise somewhat because Iran will not be able to find buyers for all of its available crude, decreasing world supplies. Oil-industry executives meeting in Davos said energy markets could afford to lose half of Iran's exports (an amount roughly equivalent to the supplies lost during Libya's civil war) because OPEC members officially have about 2.85 million barrels a day of spare crude oil production capacity. Outside of OPEC, Russia stands to gain from the sanctions – even though many Europeans still carry misgivings about relying too heavily on Russia for oil and gas after its gas transit disputes with Ukraine led Russia cut off supplies in 2005, Russia is still an obvious source of increased oil supplies if needed. Oil embargoes against Iran will hurt the Iranian economy. The government in Tehran relies on oil exports for half of its budget and, even though President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly assured the world that his country can survive any sanctions, even he had to backtrack on those assurances last week. Ahmadinejad's government raised the banking interest rates to 21% from 15% and devalued the rial by 8%; these moves are intended to help stabilize the currency market. The rial has plunged 30% in the last month as many Iranian looked to sell rials for gold and other currencies. However, oil embargoes against Iran will not only hit Iran – the global oil machine is global indeed, which means a limitation on one part sends shudders through the rest. Hold onto your steering wheels, 'cause we're in for a bumpy ride. [All this turbulence in the oil markets adds to the challenge of investing profitably in the energy sector. As the world is running out of oil, other sources of energy will take center stage. Be prepared to profit from these changes by positioning yourself now.]
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:29 AM PST "Here's what you must know, as bullish as I was from 2000 to 2010 I am MORE BULLISH on Silver No€w…" — David Morgan on silver-investor.com
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| Persistent Questions About the Future of the US Economy Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:26 AM PST We've covered a lot of ground over the past few months. Not much action in the markets yesterday, so let's stop here and take stock. What we know so far… First, it was clear from the get-go that there was a bubble in finance and housing. The only people who couldn't see it were the people in finance and housing…and the feds. It reached its peak in '05-'07…then, exploded. Second, it was obvious that the US economy entered a period of debt destruction — a Great Correction, we called it. There was never really any hope of 'recovery.' Once it blows up, you can't put the pieces of a bubble back together. Third, the question then was how long the Great Correction would last…which depended on what it was correcting. No one knows. We're still correcting the debt bubble, which could take another 10 years or so. But this correction could be tough; there are other things going on. Which led us to start asking questions about what we don't know: Can any government in the developed world survive? Will there be enough growth to keep them from going broke? Was the growth of the post-war period a fluke? Was the Industrial Era driven entirely by cheap energy…a 'growth spurt' that is now played out? Are the developed economies so burdened by zombie institutions that they can never hope to compete with the emerging markets? How do governments shuck off the zombies? Those questions gave us something to think about. We saw, for example, that the theories of government were mostly wishful thinking, apologia, and claptrap. Government is raw force…used to transfer wealth and status to the insiders who control it. The reason for the triumph of democratic government is that it gives more people the illusion of power…and welcomes more people as insiders (however modest their participation). As time goes by, more and more groups get special privileges, contracts, jobs, tax breaks, bailouts, protections and redistributions. Eventually, there are more insiders collecting wealth than there are outsiders producing it. Then, reform is practically impossible. The political system is entirely under the control of the zombies. The only resolution of this is catastrophe — either in the form of bankruptcy, hyperinflation, war, revolution, or some combination. Zombies are expensive parasites. The more political power they gain, the less flexible and adaptable the economy and the society become. Capitalism is corrupted. The 'system' cannot correct itself. Politicians may talk about cutting spending, balancing the budget, and protecting the nation's finances. But they can't do it. The leeches want more and more blood. Sooner or later, the host goes broke. But bankruptcy is not the biggest menace — not for the US. An empire risks losing its soul as well as its money. That is the drama we are watching in the Republican presidential race. The devil has already laid his trap — the Pentagon budget, Homeland Security, Patriot Act, the Defense Authorization Bill, sidelining Congress, torture, the use of drones at home and abroad, the pre-meditated murder of Osama bin Laden. It is probably just a matter of time until it springs shut. "Wait, Bill," writes a reader. "You keep going on and on about the Pentagon. But the military is going to take the budget bullet, if you know what I mean. That's where the automatic cuts are focused." Oh yeah? More below… Of course, we don't know what will happen. We're just watching, wondering…guessing…like everyone else. We're also probably a bit more 'pessimistic' than most observers. Because we have a lower opinion of our fellow man than most people do. Not that he is bad. But he is subject to influence. And sometimes the influences upon him are rotten. The average person we meet is a decent enough character; we almost always like him. But the average Roman in Caligula's reign was probably a decent fellow too. Sometimes people get trapped…where the worst take over…and decent people can't stop them. Remember the meeting at Davos with the "remodeling capitalism" theme? We were suspicious and dismissive. After all, no one ever modeled capitalism in the first place. It seemed vain to talk about remodeling it. Besides, we've seen these architects and decorators at work before. We wouldn't want to live in a house they designed. Stephen Roach, an economist with Morgan Stanley and Yale, took part in the discussion. His account of the conference confirms our guess: this was the most prestigious meeting of dumbbells on the planet. One speaker urged a repudiation of materialistic values. Another wanted to confront human rights abuses. Another wanted to make some point about the Arab Spring. Two thirds of the participants, writes Roach in The Financial Times, "felt capitalism was not working." But none seemed to have any idea of what capitalism really is…or what might be wrong with it. A group of Occupy agitators broke into a chant: "No speeches. No stage. Join us!" Join us? Why? "We simply cannot continue to cut our defense budget if we are to remain the hope of the Earth," says Mitt Romney. Where do candidates get this sort of stuff? Who writes lines like that? Who takes them seriously? According to Romney, the Earth itself longs for more US military spending. His adversary, Newt Gingrich, says he thinks that Obama's Pentagon cuts will make the US as vulnerable to attack as it was before World War II. But the Pentagon won't really have less money to spend. They're not really talking about cutting defense spending; they're talking about cutting projected military spending increases. Even after the 'cuts,' the US military will still be spending more than the next 10 biggest spenders put together. While Republican candidates try to out-Rambo each other, the president himself sends teams of Navy Seals to rescue American hostages…and never fails to remind Americans that he was the one who ordered the killing of Osama bin Laden. All the candidates think the American people want war. Or…what? Actually, Americans don't want war. The latest Pew Research polls show them more opposed to foreign military adventures than at any time in the last 15 years. They're more interested in getting a job…and protecting their retirements. Given the choice, they would probably want to see military spending cut back and the money put into their own pockets. But they won't be given the choice. The system is rigged. Between them and the outcomes are 10,000 lobbyists and millions of zombies. This is why representative democracy doesn't work. Decent people will generally have decent responses to decent questions. Put to a ballot, how would American's vote? 1. Should the US balance its budget…or continue to spend $1.50 for every dollar in revenue? Our guess is that the voters would do the right thing. But they'll never get the chance. The system is in the hands of the zombies now. Lobbyists, lawyers, connivers, chiselers, contractors, layabouts and scalawags and world-improvers — each one takes a little piece of the old republic…until there's nothing left. Tomorrow: how the zombies work… Regards, Bill Bonner, Persistent Questions About the Future of the US Economy originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2012 08:21 AM PST January 31, 2012 [LIST] [*]Making sense of a "strange stock market": Chris Mayer on what to do when investors flee equities in a vain search for yield [*]Jim Nelson on where to go as income investors step further out on the risk curve [*]Central bankers convene, hilarity ensues... until the proverbial punch bowl is drained: Two charts with stunning parallels [*]LSD pioneer has visions of a return to the gold standard... seriously [*]A reader's excellent book tip... an inquiry into bank failures... a photo that explains a lot (or not)... and more! [/LIST] "This is a strange stock market we are dealing with," observes Chris Mayer, writing from a 777 en route to Santiago, Chile, in search of investing opportunities far from home. Not much is happening in the U.S. market today. The major indexes lurched up at the open, a move attributed to the latest misplaced hopes about a solution to the eurozone crisis. Then they settled back down. The S&P 500 is still about eight...
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Kerry Lutz talks to Nick Santiago about silver.
Gresham's Law states that when a government (or governments) forcibly overvalues one money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will disappear, and the overvalued money will flood into circulation. The popular simplification of Gresham's Law is simply "bad money drives out good money." When a crappy currency impersonates a solid money (and they are equally valued), the solid money will usually disappear as people begin saving the solid money and spending the crappy currency.
Have you ever watched a football game or a basketball game where one team dominates the other team so badly that calling it a "blowout" would be a huge understatement? Well, that is what China is doing to the United States. China is absolutely destroying America on the global economic stage. Once upon a time, the Chinese economy was a joke and the U.S. economy was the most powerful the world had ever seen. But over the past couple of decades the U.S. economy has decayed and declined while the Chinese economy has skyrocketed. Today, China makes more steel, more automobiles, more beer, more cotton, more coal and more solar panels than we do. China has the fastest train in the world, the fastest computer in the world and they export twice as much high-tech equipment as we do. In 2011, our trade deficit with China was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world, and China has now accumulated more than 3 trillion dollars in foreign currency reserves. Every single day, we lose more jobs, more businesses and more of our national wealth to China. In technical economic terms, China has "taken us out behind the woodshed" and has beaten the living daylights out of us. Unfortunately, most Americans are so addicted to entertainment that they don't even realize what is happening.
Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!
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