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• Update: Top 10 Most-Shorted Solar Stocks
• Trading From a Position of Strength
• The Trillion Dollar Bazooka
• Sprott Positive on Gold
• Gold & Silver Forecasts Pessimistic
• Gingrich Calls for New Gold Commission
• If You Don't Own Gold Yet, What Exactly Are You Waiting For?
• Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/20/12
• "Sneaky" ways to painlessly save more money
• An ideal way to keep some of your physical gold and silver safe
• North Sudan to introduce new gold and commodity trading platforms
• Silver Update: “MF Global2″
• "The Chinese Really Love Gold" - Banks Pushing Citizens to Buy
• John Williams - Gold, Silver, Economy & Inflation
• "A Longer-Term Perspective On Gold" And More, From Nomura
• Sinclair expects European gold to be repatriated from Fed
• Sprott bearish on base metals, positive on gold and oil
• Stephen Leeb - Why Gold & Silver are About to Soar
• Gold & Silver Market Morning, January 20, 2012
• Call Your Attorney General Today to Oppose Big Obama Push to Get Mortgage Settlement Deal Done
• State Bank of Hyderabad offers loans to buy gold
• Russian Gold Miner Mulls IPO to Raise $200 M
• Gold Scams
• A Path to Gold Production: Kwong-Mun Achong Low
• It Looks Like Inflation or Hyperinflation Ahead
• The Lost Swift Silver Mine
• Mitt Romney and the Tax Zombies
• Why Low Interest Rates are Bad for the Economy
• Manson Creek Corporate Presentation for 2012 – Going for the Kill Zones
• More Evidence that JP Morgan Stuck the Knife in MF Global

Update: Top 10 Most-Shorted Solar Stocks Posted: 20 Jan 2012 03:11 AM PST By Neoclassical Economist: After a terrible year in 2011 solar stocks are still grappling with low average selling prices and trying to stay afloat. The slashing of government subsidies in Europe has reduced or eliminated profit margins for many solar companies. Of course, this has been great news for solar bears. Those who predicted this collapse and sold short have profited significantly. This trend seems to now be coming to an end as short ratios are starting to decline. Let's look at the 10 most-shorted solar stocks, based on the number of shares held short divided by total shares outstanding, along with the estimated number of days to cover: Company Ticker Short Interest % of Shares Day to Cover (in mil. of shares) Outstanding 1. LDK Solar LDK 26.5 25.1% 11.7 2. Energy Conversion Devices ENER 11.8 22.2% 11.5 3. Trina Solar TSL 16.3 22.2% 10.9 4. First Solar FSLR 18.7 21.6% 4.2 Complete Story »

Trading From a Position of Strength Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:51 AM PST Editor's Note: Today we have a third article from Nathan O. – who is the brain behind our newly launched service, Global Trend Capture.  Over the past several years, Nathan has been perfecting his trend following system and generating some very attractive returns. Today, Nathan offers some great wisdom in terms of setting up a trading system and not allowing emotions or "intuition" lead to poor trading decisions.  Too many would-be successful traders ignore these concepts just enough times to sabotage what would otherwise be a profitable system. If you're interested in learning more about the Global Trend Capture service and how you can receive a risk-free 45 day trial, simply follow this link.  I'm confident that you will find Nathan's comments insightful and applicable to both discretionary as well as mechanical traders. Trade 'em well! MM Trading From a Position of Strength As much as I believe in and cover the merits of risk management, taking profits can also be challenging for many traders. If a trade goes against you quickly and triggers your stop loss then the battle is already over.    There is not anything to do on your part other than chalk up a loss and move on.    If you happen to be stopped out the same or next day that you entered the position you barely even have time to think about the trade. Managing open positions, especially those in profit, is different in my opinion from a trading psychology standpoint.     The larger your account grows (and the corresponding size of open profits) the easier it is to get sucked into bad trading thoughts. If you have just taken a few losses or currently have open positions that are red most people have a natural tendency to claim those open profits.     The idea is "If I close out this profitable position now………." I am up in my account……… It makes up for those losses I just took…… It will make this month a winner….. It will give me confidence…. And so on and so forth!   The interesting thing about open profits vs. losses taken is the time they weigh on your mind. When the market closes on Friday (assuming whatever you are trading is not actively trading during the weekend) you will have the entire weekend to think about those profits.    In a profitable long-term trade you will have months to debate what to do as open profits accumulate. Part of what helped me early on was to change the way I viewed profits and profitable positions in general.   I realize this may seem strange or a little too "power of the mind" for some of you out there, but changing your feelings or thoughts subconsciously is the best way I know to combat poor trading habits. Everyone hears "Let your profits run" and similar mantras, but despite this common knowledge many times trader's actual actions are just the opposite.    They get anxious, fearful and can't stand the thought of watching those profits disappear. I grappled with these same issues early on, but solved them in two ways. One, I quit viewing actual dollar amounts and began looking at everything in terms of percentages.   Up 2%, down 1%, a monthly return of 6% replaced the words up $20,000, down $10,000 and a monthly return of $60,000". Two, I designed my system to take partial profits and to use advanced momentum trailing stop strategies to protect more open profits.     For me, this conquered the "watching profits disappear" concerns to an acceptable level yet still kept me around for really big moves.      It enabled me to trade from what I call "A Position of Strength". Though self-explanatory there are countless examples of doing something from "A Position of Strength". On the battlefield the army that is on higher ground is fighting from "A Position of Strength".    If a job opening has 400 applicants, the employer is working from "A Position of Strength".     If we disagree about who gets the parking spot and I have a grenade launcher while you have a rubber band………..well you get the point!! Before we get too excited, let me be the first to admit my approach is not a perfect one, nor do I believe such a thing exists.     It is only perfect from the standpoint that it fits my trading personality and system. With partial profit targets you give up some return on the really big moves, though I have combated that to a large degree with the Momentum Trailing Stops.    Still, it is always give and take with any profit taking strategies.    Same with initial stop loss strategies – using larger/wider stops will keep you in more trades, while a tighter stop will get you stopped out more. The reason I term it trading from "A Position of Strength" is that barring any catastrophic event I have locked in profits now (whether through Momentum Trailing Stop adjustments or Partial Profit Targets). Trading from "A Position of Strength" does not mean I now have some unfair advantage over the markets or they are at my mercy.    It means only that I now have a guaranteed (with normal disclaimers, i.e. major gap opening against my position) profit with potential for more. I view it the same as pushing a boulder up a hill and finally getting over the top.   No guarantee it will now go down all the way to the bottom but the heavy lifting has been done and there should be no stress at this point.    Worst case maybe you have to climb down and nudge it past a sticking point but you are done pushing it up any more hills. The simple process of viewing profitable trades from this perspective should help you manage them better and avoid closing out for the wrong reasons.    Closing out a profitable trade just because it has open profits, to offset a losing position or for any other reason than your trailing stop or partial profit target was hit shows a lack of discipline. Enjoy that your trade has locked in profits, knowing full well you are not going to nail the top or bottom.      Avoid looking at your account balance and booking those profits in your mind on the part not locked in.    Let's use a real world example below on CRBC that many of you have a position in right now: Price is in the $13.30 range, but $12.28 is our locked in price.    Don't start spending those open profits on this position.   We are operating from "A Position of Strength" but we will always have open profits to give up now that our PPT (partial profit target marked by green diamond) has been hit.    There is no way around this. You must be willing to give up a portion of open profits to allow breathing room for further price advances on this position.    I am however not willing to give up the amount of open profits that standard trend following systems would allow as marked by the purple rectangle. To me trading from this position should cause no stress or anxiety.    Under normal trading conditions worst case we get stopped out at $12.28 on the remaining position.   This is why the most important part of exits/profit taking is having a plan.    That goes for trading in general! While you can never control what happens with price, if you know under what conditions you will adjust stops or take profits there is no reason to be nervous.    If you are in this position right now and you are suffering from any anxiety you really have to question whether trading is for you.   Nervous excitement, impatience and emotional instability are ingredients that don't make a very enjoyable trading experience.    It is typically not a good idea to fly a kite when tornados are present.   You are probably better suited for snail racing. All joking aside, don't discount your emotional state and how it can sabotage your trading regardless of your approach.    Having defined exit strategies will help you handle open profits and trade from "A Position of Strength". ~~~ Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a Donkey from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the Donkey the next day. The next day he drove up and said, 'Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.' Chuck replied, 'Well, then just give me my money back.' The farmer said, 'Can't do that. I went and spent it already.' Chuck said, 'Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.' The farmer asked, 'What ya gonna do with him? Chuck said, 'I'm going to raffle him off.' The farmer said 'You can't raffle off a dead donkey!' Chuck said, 'Sure I can. Watch me. I just won't tell anybody he's dead.' A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, 'What happened with that dead donkey?' Chuck said, 'I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $998.' The farmer said, 'Didn't anyone complain?' Chuck said, 'Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.' Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs. Carpe Trendum! Nathan

The Trillion Dollar Bazooka Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:22 AM PST QE3, $2,200 Gold, and the Trillion Dollar Bazooka With the IMF facing a trillion dollar necessity for its bailout funds, big gold price increases should not be ruled out. by Peter Krauth, MineWeb.com: It's the beginning of a new year, and there's no shortage of big headlines… Europe is on the financial brink, Iran is a powder keg, and precious metals like gold have retreated. It's also a time when there is no shortage of financial forecasts. Even though these kinds of predictions about the future can be tough to make, I'll admit it's kind of fun to look forward and see what the future may hold. Read More @ MineWeb.com

Sprott Positive on Gold Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:20 AM PST Sprott Bearish On Base Metals, Positive on Gold, Oil by Frank Tang, Reuters: (Reuters) – Prominent Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott said on Wednesday he was bearish on cyclical commodities such as industrial metals because of the economic slowdown, though he remained positive on gold and crude oil. Sprott, a long-time gold bull who last week filed to launch a platinum and palladium product allowing investors to redeem the physical metals, said he expects that business to grow in the wake of MF Global's collapse. "I am not bullish on cyclical commodities such as iron ore, coal, steel, lead and zinc because I am worried about this economic contraction that everybody is talking about," Sprott told Reuters in a phone interview from his Toronto office. He expects gold to hit a record above $2,000 an ounce this year, with silver also rallying to an all-time high at more than $50 an ounce. On Wednesday, gold traded at $1,660 an ounce and silver at $30.50. Read More @ Reuters.com

Gold & Silver Forecasts Pessimistic Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:18 AM PST Gold and Silver Price Forecasts for 2012 Probably Too Pessimistic by Peter Cooper, Arabian Money via GoldSeek: If anything gold and silver forecasters are probably too cautious about the outlook for 2012. This is not surprising after the volatility of 2011 which saw record highs for both metals but a collapse later in the year that left gold up 10 per cent and silver down around the same amount for the year. The worry for precious metal investors is that deflation and recession will overcome the inflationary forces of money printing in 2012 and limit the upside for prices. Correction done? But while it is certainly possible to see a 2008-style drop in commodity prices in another global financial crisis, most likely with the eurozone at its epicentre this time, the correction that we have already seen in precious metals probably shields them from a copycat correction. In short the correction is largely behind us, whereas in late 2008 it was well overdue. Read More @ GoldSeek.com

Gingrich Calls for New Gold Commission Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:15 AM PST from GoldMoney.com: More encouraging US economic data again led to gains in copper futures yesterday. Successful Spanish and French debt auctions also saw the euro move higher against the dollar; as The Wall Street Journal reports (and was noted in our article yesterday) given copper's industrial utility, gains in copper usually coincide with improving economic sentiment. Precious metal prices had a quiet day yesterday, though this may not last long. Economists are predicting that the Federal Reserve will announce more quantitative easing measures within the next couple of months. Estimates vary from $750 billion to $1 trillion of asset purchases, targeted at mortgage-backed securities. Market analyst Andrew Wilkinson comments at CNBC that the amount of equity American homeowners have as a percentage of their disposable household income has fallen to 54%, which he calls "unprecedented" territory. In his words: "This simple fact represents uncharted territory for the Federal Reserve… Despite a recovery in growth and employment, the crippling damage inflicted by the subprime warhorse continues to play a worrisome role behind the scenes." Read More @ GoldMoney.com

If You Don't Own Gold Yet, What Exactly Are You Waiting For? Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:02 AM PST QE3, $2,200 Gold, and the Trillion Dollar Bazooka.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/20/12 Posted: 20 Jan 2012 12:23 AM PST Metals still in range but appear to want to test the support line today. Equities giving a little back putting some pressure on the metals, bit overall this is a market of no conviction. Unless you are receiving a yield, non convicted markets tend lower, traders are awaiting a headline event to break the trading range, but barring something new the drift looks slowly lower. Note: An industry colleague of mine is seeking user feedback for an exciting new web application he is developing. The app allows users to track the performance of their precious metals. A free demo is available here: https://www.bulliontracking.com/en/try/ Candid feedback is welcome!

"Sneaky" ways to painlessly save more money Posted: 20 Jan 2012 12:20 AM PST From Get Rich Slowly: Have trouble saving money? Time for some mind games. Hide cash via direct withdrawals. Get free money from banks. Name an account for a goal. Make your savings "one-way," i.e., really hard to tap. The unemployed and underemployed may feel — with good reason! — that they can't afford to save. Even those with decent salaries might feel squeezed by the rising cost of basic needs like food and utilities, especially if they're repaying student loans. Here's a cold, hard fact: You need to save anyway — and not just for an emergency fund, but also to augment your eventual retirement. (And when you're my age, "eventual" is closer than it may appear in the rear-view mirror.) Maybe you really do need need every dime to keep creditors at bay. Or maybe a little budget-tweaking could free up some extra bucks for your "someday fund." Even if it's just a tiny amount at a time, it's something. The simplest way to save is to... Read full article... More on saving money: A fail-proof retirement plan for the "unwealthy" A simple guide to know if you own enough gold Protect your wealth now: A step-by-step guide anyone can follow

An ideal way to keep some of your physical gold and silver safe Posted: 20 Jan 2012 12:17 AM PST From Resource Investor: I consider gold and silver to be the bedrock asset of an investment portfolio. In other words, it is the foundation stone upon which the rest of a portfolio is built. Given this important role in which I hold the precious metals, it is essential to keep them safe. Safety can mean different things to different people. Until recently, for example, many investors believed that Switzerland was isolated from the world's monetary turmoil. They, therefore, thought that the Swiss franc was a safe place to keep their money... but the illusion of safety vanished instantly when the Swiss National Bank announced that it would not let the Swiss franc strengthen beyond 1.2 Swiss francs per euro. U.S. government debt instruments are another asset class that, in reality, offer only the illusion of safety. Scottish author and historian Niall Ferguson has warned that T-bonds and T-bills are a safe haven like Pearl Harbor in 1941. Gold and silver are safe havens because they are tangible assets. Therefore, they do not have counterparty risk. In other words, there is no risk of default... but only if you own physical metal. Paper gold and paper silver are financial assets and therefore have counterparty risk. They only offer the illusion of gold and silver ownership. So how does one keep their physical metals safe? Read full article... More on gold and silver: A simple guide to know if you own enough gold The best gold-buying opportunity of the year could be coming soon Silver alert: Unusual development could cause a repeat of last year's explosive rally

North Sudan to introduce new gold and commodity trading platforms Posted: 20 Jan 2012 12:15 AM PST Ever since Christian South Sudan declared its independence in July 2011, the Islamic government of North Sudan has urgently been looking for new sources of income. With South Sudan's independence, ...

Silver Update: “MF Global2″ Posted: 19 Jan 2012 11:32 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: BJF on potential silver prices, MF and more in the 1.19.12  Silver Update. Got Physical ? ~TVR

"The Chinese Really Love Gold" - Banks Pushing Citizens to Buy Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver [Note to Readers:  The chances are better than 50/50 that I won't have a column on Saturday, but I haven't completely ruled it out at the moment.  Ed] The high of the day was the brief spike up at precisely 9:00 a.m. in London yesterday morning...and it was all down hill from there, with the low of the day coming about two minutes before 3:00 p.m. Eastern time in electronic trading in New York. From that low, the gold price recovered a bit into the 5:15 p.m. close.  The final price was $1,656.60 spot, down $2.20 on the day.  Net volume was a very light 95,000 contracts. Silver didn't do much during Far East trading on Thursday...and hit its high of the day at 9:00 a.m. in London as well.  The price made a few attempts to make it through the $31 dollar level after that, but finally got turned back for good when it got sold down 40 cents at 8:40 a.m. Eastern time. After that, the silver price didn't do a lot...and closed the day at $30.64 spot...up 12 whole cents.  Volume was only 29,000 contracts. The dollar index continued its relentless decline...and lost about 40 basis points yesterday.  Since the dollar opened on Sunday night in New York, it has lost 150 basis points...a cent and a half.  Any attempts by gold or silver to rally in the face of this almost 2% decline in the dollar have been turned back. The gold stocks opened in the black, but that didn't last long...although they managed to hold their own up until about 11:00 a.m. in New York.  Then a relentless sell-off began that continued until precisely 3:00 p.m. Eastern...gold's low price tick of the day.  The sell-off was out of all proportion to the smallish decline in the gold price that occurred during that four hour time interval.  One has to wonder what the real motive for the sell-off was, as the Dow wasn't doing much of anything. From that low, a smallish rally began that took the HUI back above the 500 mark.  It closed down 2.12% on the day. Nick spent so much time talking to me on the phone [again] this morning that he forgot to update his Silver Sentiment Index. [And this just in from Nick at 6:09 a.m. Eastern: The SSI closed down 0.47% on Thursday.  Nick's excuse was that he has the flu...which he does...but I know the real reason was the four beers he drank.] (Click on image to enlarge) The CME Daily Delivery Report was a surprise, as 11 gold and a rather large 114 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday.  As has been the case all month, Jefferies was the only short/issuer in silver...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the big long/stopper with JPMorgan coming in second by default.  Come to think of it, it was exactly the same for gold...Jefferies, Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan.  I sure don't know what to make of all this.  The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday...and no sales report from the U.S Mint, either. But the big surprise of the day, courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com, was the news that Zürcher Kantonalbank in Switzerland added a whopping 8,160,120 troy ounces to their silver ETF last week.  Their silver ETF now holds 89,905,909 ounces.  Between Sprott and ZKB, almost 18 million ounces of silver have been taken off the market within the last week.  That's more than nine days of world silver production. The Comex-approved depositories showed that 300,366 ounces of silver were received on Wednesday...and a tiny 2,994 ounces were shipped out the door.  The link to that action is here. Here's the Total Precious Metals Pool chart courtesy of Nick Laird...and the big additions by SLV and Sprott are more than obvious. Reader Scott Pluschau has provided another T.A. commentary on his website...this one regarding gold equities.  It's headlined "Are the Gold Miners showing a threatening price pattern?"  The link to that is here. I've kept the stories down to the bare minimum...at least for me. Email Print With volume very low yesterday, it wasn't hard for any interested party to shove the price of both gold and silver in any direction they wished. ZKB Silver ETF added 8.16 million ounces last week. Sinclair expects European gold to be repatriated from Fed. Sprott bearish on base metals, positive on gold and oil. TSA Compliant Cupcakes! ¤ Critical Reads Subscribe MF Global Commodity Customers Must Be Paid First, CFTC Says MF Global Inc. commodity customers must be paid before all other claimants, including the bankrupt parent company, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Court papers by the trustee for MF Global Holdings Ltd., Louis Freeh, contain "errors and misstatements of law" in arguing that commodity laws, which require that customers be "made whole" first, don't apply to brokerage liquidations, the regulator said in a court filing today. Freeh, representing the parent company creditors, has said money due to them shouldn't be "diverted" to customers. If Freeh was right, "the senseless result would be to render inapplicable the key regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the largest commodity broker bankruptcy in U.S. history," the CFTC said. The result would "strip" customers of a remedy, after they entrusted their assets to the brokerage relying on rules for segregating customer money, it said. This businessweek.com story from Wednesday was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and it's more than worth your time.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Rates now negative on inflation-protected and regular Treasuries Investors bought inflation-protected Treasury securities at a negative interest rate for the first time on Thursday, demonstrating the depth of concerns that Federal Reserve efforts to stimulate the economy could lead to higher inflation in the future. The $15 billion in Treasury inflation protected securities, or Tips, were sold at a negative yield of about 0.046 per cent. Investors could still make money on their holdings because the principal of such securities increases if inflation rises. Bill O'Donnell, strategist at RBS Securities, said that investors were accepting "a short-term cost for a potential long-term gain." Treasury securities of all kinds are finding favour as a haven as investors flee the market turmoil in the eurozone. This subscriber-protected story appeared in yesterday's edition of the Financial Times...and it's posted in the clear in this GATA release. View full GSD edition U.S. Charges Programmer with Stealing Code Federal prosecutors have charged a computer programmer with stealing software code valued at nearly $10 million from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to a criminal complaint filed in United States District Court on Wednesday. A contract programmer who worked at the Fed, Bo Zhang, was charged with illegally copying software to an external hard drive, according to the complaint. Both the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve board in Washington declined requests for comment. The authorities said the software, owned by the Treasury Department, cost about $9.5 million to develop. This story was posted in The New York Times on Wednesday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Sweet Victory: TSA Compliant Cupcakes! You can't make this stuff up...redux. A bakery in Providence, R.I. has take the recent TSA scandal, dubbed Cupcakegate, and turned it into a clever marketing scheme.  The saga began last December when airport security confiscated a cupcake in a 8-ounce jar at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. Although regular frosted baked goods aren't seen as a national security threat, the packaged cake had a thick layer of icing that violated that administration's 3-ounce carry-on limit for liquids, gels and aerosols, according to a post on the official TSA blog. Casey Research's own Doug Hornig sent this around to the CR crowd yesterday...and I thought it worth sharing.  It was posted on the businessinsider.com website on Tuesday...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Price Manipulation: Look for Motive Regulators haven't been able to keep up with price manipulation in the commodities markets or any other market. Why do games persist? The short answer is because they can, and because they can be very profitable in the short run. If you've Googled gold or silver, you've probably come across sites that are breathless about the possibility of manipulation of metals prices. The problem with the internet is that it's new, too new to capture the rich history of the financial markets. Manipulation of metals prices--and the prices of many other commodities--is an old tradition. Here's one example adapted from An Alchemists Road: My transition from medicine to business, by Dr. Henry Jarecki (Dr. Jarecki is currently Chairman of Gresham Investment Management LLC.), October, 1989. This publication is not available on the internet. This Huffington Post column from yesterday is a must read in my opinion...and I thank reader Scott Pluschau for sharing it with us...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Stephen Leeb - Why Gold & Silver are About to Soar Eric King sent me this Stephen Leeb blog yesterday morning.  I haven't read it yet, but I'm sure it's worth your time.  It's posted over at the King World News website...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Sprott bearish on base metals, positive on gold and oil Prominent Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott said on Wednesday he was bearish on cyclical commodities such as industrial metals because of the economic slowdown, though he remained positive on gold and crude oil. Sprott, a long-time gold bull who last week filed to launch a platinum and palladium product allowing investors to redeem the physical metals, said he expects that business to grow in the wake of MF Global's collapse. "I am not bullish on cyclical commodities such as iron ore, coal, st

John Williams - Gold, Silver, Economy & Inflation Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST John Williams - Gold, Silver, Economy & Inflation Eric King sent me this John Williams blog just before midnight.  It's another piece I haven't had the time to read yet, but I'm sure it's worth your time as well.  It's posted on the King World News website...and the link is here.

"A Longer-Term Perspective On Gold" And More, From Nomura Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST "A Longer-Term Perspective On Gold" And More, From Nomura Below we present Nomura's just released Gold Sector Initiation, which is a must read for new entrants to the field of physical and paper representations of gold, as well as a timely reminder for everyone else that in the past three years, nothing has changed with the fundamental thesis and, in fact, recent actions have merely reinforced it (and if we indeed have a €1 or €10 trillion LTRO, then watch all resistance levels in the metal get blown off). This rather longish read includes a copy of the 105 page Nomura  forecasts on future gold prices, supply and  demand trends, and what this means for gold equities. read more

Sinclair expects European gold to be repatriated from Fed Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST Sinclair expects European gold to be repatriated from Fed Mining entrepreneur and market analyst Jim Sinclair told King World News yesterday that there likely will be much repatriation of European gold reserves held in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Sinclair expects that there will be attempts to discourage repatriation but he doesn't expect the Fed to refuse. I thank Chris Powell for providing the introduction to this KWN blog...and the link is here.

Sprott bearish on base metals, positive on gold and oil Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST Sprott bearish on base metals, positive on gold and oil Prominent Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott said on Wednesday he was bearish on cyclical commodities such as industrial metals because of the economic slowdown, though he remained positive on gold and crude oil. Sprott, a long-time gold bull who last week filed to launch a platinum and palladium product allowing investors to redeem the physical metals, said he expects that business to grow in the wake of MF Global's collapse. "I am not bullish on cyclical commodities such as iron ore, coal, steel, lead, and zinc because I am worried about this economic contraction that everybody is talking about," Sprott told Reuters in a phone interview from his Toronto office. read more

Stephen Leeb - Why Gold & Silver are About to Soar Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:07 PM PST Stephen Leeb - Why Gold & Silver are About to Soar Eric King sent me this Stephen Leeb blog yesterday morning.  I haven't read it yet, but I'm sure it's worth your time.  It's posted over at the King World News website...and the link is here.

Gold & Silver Market Morning, January 20, 2012 Posted: 19 Jan 2012 09:00 PM PST

Call Your Attorney General Today to Oppose Big Obama Push to Get Mortgage Settlement Deal Done Posted: 19 Jan 2012 07:30 PM PST We put up a few more stories on the mortgage mess tonight for a reason. It isn't that we had a sudden explosion of new information on mortgage abuses. It is instead to remind readers that we could turn this blog entirely over to covering mortgage chicanery and not even scratch the surface. And the latest bit of corrupt behavior is that the Obama administration has a full court press on to push the heinous "multi-state" settlement deal over the line. We've pooh poohed previous reports from Iowa state attorney general Tom Miller that a deal is just around the corner, since he's been doing his variant on a Chicken Little act for a full year. But it appears the President wants a talking point, ideally for the State of the Union address or as shortly thereafter as possible. So this time is different: the administration is putting far more pressure on the dissident and skeptical Democratic attorneys general. And precisely because Tom Miller's efforts have appeared to be going nowhere, particularly after California AG Kamala Harris left the talks, the grass roots effort to oppose the talks has slackened off. The lack of active opposition leave the AGs feeling more exposed, particularly in light of often misleading press stories (for instance, the Wall Street Journal implied over the summer that Harris was wavering when all it was doing was repackaging stale information under a new headline). Similarly, the Administration is ramping up "a deal is almost cinched" reports with Obamabot news outlets like NPR. This is a classic deal/salesmans' tactic: to create the impression of momentum when there is fact is often none. The Democratic attorneys general have been invited to meet in Chicago on Monday, and Shaun Donovan of HUD and a member of the Department of Justice will be putting the heat on. The Republican AGs are getting the same documents the Democrat AGs will receive and will confer by phone. We posted that the Democratic AGs unhappy with the deal has actually enlarged, with 14 apparently meeting (a Huffington Post story said "up to 15″ and we gather that Oregon and Montana participated in addition to the dozen named. However, only 5 so far have officially left the talks: New York, Delaware, Nevada, California, and Massachusetts. In addition, there are at least four Republicans who have said they will not join in any settlement. Here are some of the reasons to oppose a settlement: 1. There have been virtually no investigations, and the Administration has engaged in cover-ups rather than trying to get to the bottom of the mortgage mess 2. The big argument made in favor of the deal, that it will help borrowers, is patently false. Remember, Countrywide entered into a deal with attorney generals just like this, where they agreed to do mods in return for a settlement on abuses. Guess what? They didn't do the mods. To add insult to injury, they actually abused homeowners who should have gotten mods. Nevada AG is suing Countrywide now over its failure to comply with the terms of its settlement. And even if some mods miraculously did get done, the settlement is designed to have banks hit a dollar amount. That means they will focus on the biggest loans, which means any relief will go to a comparatively small number of people in (originally) big ticket houses. 3. The Administration has only one chance to get this right. Now you might argue that Team Obama has no intention of getting the mortgage mess right, but the tectonic plates suddenly seem to be moving in elite circles. The Fed realizes that housing is a BIG problem and has even started making noise about it. Yet Obama is moving forward with a plan cooked up in late 2010 that is completely out of whack with the urgency and severity of the problem. Note that this settlement will NOT stop private actions, such as borrowers fighting foreclosures. And we will continue to banks refuse to take losses and drag out foreclosures to maximize fees. That will lead to continued pressure on housing prices in many markets as buyers stay on the sidelines, fearful of buying before a large shadow inventory clears. Leaving the AGs free to investigate and increase the pressure that is already building up in the system is the best chance we have to deal with widespread fraud. The attorneys general really need your support. It helps them to hear that their constituents appreciate them standing up to the banks and the Obama administration. PLEASE call them TODAY. Here is a list of phone numbers. If you can't get through, send an e-mail. Please also sign this petition from Campaign for America's Future (it has some talking points if you need them for the AG calls). Note you can opt out of being put on their mailing list (I know that has been a sore point with some past petitions). I know it is futile to ping Obama, but they will collect the number of people who sign, and that will in turn bolster the dissident AGs. Please call today. Unlike Congresscritters, who get a lot of constituent mail and phone calls, AGs get much less in the way of messages from state citizens, so your calls will make a difference. Thanks for your help.

State Bank of Hyderabad offers loans to buy gold Posted: 19 Jan 2012 07:19 PM PST

Russian Gold Miner Mulls IPO to Raise $200 M Posted: 19 Jan 2012 07:13 PM PST

Gold Scams Posted: 19 Jan 2012 07:00 PM PST I've got a post up on the corporate site you will like about gold scams - hat tip Kid Dynamite for the lead story. I've included three real life examples of scam emails that the Perth Mint has received. You will (or won't) be surprised that it is not just average people fooled by this stuff - we have been contacted by suburban accountants and lawyers trying to facilitate a $100 million deal without pausing to think why a legitimate buyer wouldn't just come to us directly and save themselves a 1% commission.

A Path to Gold Production: Kwong-Mun Achong Low Posted: 19 Jan 2012 06:00 PM PST Kwong-Mun Achong Low, an analyst with Northern Securities in Canada, thinks that copper and gold juniors are in for a better run this year. He's ferreted out the juniors with the most promising... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter

It Looks Like Inflation or Hyperinflation Ahead Posted: 19 Jan 2012 04:36 PM PST Do Not Miss the Audio Below! Ultimately the debate as to whether this crisis ends in a deflationary or inflationary collapse will be decided by the outplay of several forces. While it is impossible to determine which way this drama plays out (it could go either way), there are reasons to believe either position. Ultimately [...]

The Lost Swift Silver Mine Posted: 19 Jan 2012 04:30 PM PST wvc

Mitt Romney and the Tax Zombies Posted: 19 Jan 2012 03:55 PM PST Dow up 96 yesterday. Gold up $4. Oil above $100. Nothing special to report, in other words. Mitt Romney has revealed his effective tax rate. "About 15%," he says. That seems like more than enough to us. But it's not enough to satisfy the zombies. Romney has made a lot of money. They want more of it. It turns out that 15% is lower than average. The AP reports: At 15 per cent, Romney's federal income tax rate would still be higher than the rate paid by many Americans. On average, households making between $50,000 and $75,000 will pay a federal income tax rate of 5.7 per cent this year, according to projections by the Tax Policy Centre, a Washington think tank. However, when Social Security and other taxes are included, that same household would pay an average federal tax rate of 16.6 per cent. Overall, the average American household will pay 9.3 per cent in federal income taxes - and 19.7 per cent in all federal taxes. Romney's wealth - he is worth between $190 million and $250 million - puts him among the richest Americans. But if most of his income is from investments, it could help him to significantly lower his federal tax bill compared to people who make money in other ways. While the top federal tax rate for investment income - qualified dividends and long-term capital gains - is 15 per cent, the top tax rate for wages is 35 per cent on taxable income above $388,350. Wages are also subject to Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, while investment earnings are not. Newt Gingrich has suggested a flat tax rate of 15%, which he now proposes to call the "Romney Tax." But the zombies not only want a higher rate (so they can squeeze the producers a bit harder) they also don't want a flat tax. They prefer a confusing, complex, and ever-changing tax code, with 10,000 rules and 20,000 exceptions. Why? Three reasons: First, complexity provides rich cover in which to hide special favours and privileges. Second, the more special favours available, the more campaign contributions, donations, job offers and speaking fees Congress can count on. Third, and don't forget the lawyers and accountants - the corrupt insiders - who make money by helping lay the mines...and then helping taxpayers get through the minefields without blowing up. Sure, you could replace the government's revenue with a much simpler tax system...but you'd inconvenience the zombies. In short, the tax system is completely corrupt. It is a drag on the whole economy...but it serves the zombies well. Regards, Bill Bonner for The Daily Reckoning Australia Similar Posts: The US Empire: Home of the World's Biggest Zombies Zombies Born of Government Spending Trust Funds Con GE Cuts Itself Tax Free US Wealth Distribution: Where Zombies Go to Feast

Why Low Interest Rates are Bad for the Economy Posted: 19 Jan 2012 03:54 PM PST Hmmm, it appears employment stalled in Australia during 2011. Following a loss of around 40,000 jobs in the last few months of the year, the economy shed 100 jobs in 2011. That's not good. And you can bet a cut in interest rates will follow. The growing global economic slowdown just reached our shores. Well, it's actually been here for a while. But China and chunky government deficits have served to 'insulate' our economy. Up until now. China is past its peak growth rate. The Western world is in a low-growth debt bog. And the government, trying to hold on to the credibility it has left, thinks rushing the budget back into surplus by 1 cent in 2013 is a good idea. For the record, that projected budget surplus is as good as gone. It was only ever a political pipedream. It relies nearly entirely on the mining tax. And with the heat still to come out of the Chinese asset boom this year, revenue projections will prove way too optimistic. The reality is the global credit boom created a massive misallocation of resources. That includes labour. According to the Bank for International Settlements, Australia's household debt rose from around 45 per cent of GDP in the 1980s to peak at 157 per cent of GDP in December 2007. The increase in credit built a consumer society. It also buoyed asset prices, which built a financial services society. Clearly the credit/debt boom created overcapacity in these industries. Now, with the credit boom over, it should not surprise you to see job losses in the retail sector and, more recently, in financial services. It's the economy's way of adjusting to a new level of demand. And because this is a structural change in demand, not a cyclical change, you should expect these job losses to continue. Although many hailed the government's 2008 stimulus package as a 'success', all it did was perpetuate the imbalance and prolong the adjustment phase. By handing out a wad of cash to those with a bent to consume, the economy fired off a false price signal to those in the retail industry. It was fleeting, artificial demand. Making matters worse, the government pumped money into the residential housing market via grants and buying up mortgage-backed securities. Again, it created distortions in the market by setting off false price signals. Now the government can't afford to throw more money at ailing industries, so the adjustment that is already underway might gather pace. The financial services industry in particular suffers from overcapacity. For decades, universities churned out finance, commerce, accounting and economics graduates to feed on the ever-growing credit bubble. Because finance was always the closest industry to the source of the economy's money and credit, it has a legacy of high wage rates. The industry is labour, not capital intensive. Without 'human capital' these businesses have no value. So what do you do when the flow of credit - and revenue and profit - slows? Cut jobs. This bad news on the employment front means you can just about guarantee another cut to official interest rates in February. And another...and another in the months that follow. A year ago, the RBA and the horde of market economists who hang on its every word expected interest rates to be higher by now. Even as late as September 2011 the RBA was sitting on its hands, unsure which way to move. The direction of interest rates seems pretty certain now. But before you rejoice, here's something to think about... As an economy's debt load grows - and that debt turns bad - interest rates must fall to historically low levels... even zero. Japan has endured (not enjoyed) zero interest rates for over a decade. Following the credit crisis, the US, UK and Europe all have very low interest rates. And it will stay that way for a long time. This is not a positive. It's a sign that these economies are full of bad debt. The only way to prop up the bad debt is to bring its servicing costs down. But ultra-low interest rates discourage saving and distort the whole economic process. Australia is not there yet. Our interest rate suggests we're still in relatively healthy shape - as a whole. But the direction is a concern. We're following the Western world down. What could Australia's source of bad debts be? How about mortgage debt. And rising unemployment is about the last thing the property market needs now. Regards, Greg Canavan for The Daily Reckoning Australia Similar Posts: Is Australia's Economy Decoupled From the Rest of the World? Housing and Unemployment Are Weaknesses in the U.S. Economy Why I Would Have Raised the Interest Rates Why Choose Gold When Real Interest Rates Sink? The Problem With Artificially Low Interest Rates

Manson Creek Corporate Presentation for 2012 – Going for the Kill Zones Posted: 19 Jan 2012 03:34 PM PST Manson Creek Resources (TSX:MCK.V)  has posted its new corporate presentation for 2012 on their web site, likely in preparation for the winter conference season.  Their focus is, as one might expect, on the Tell property and the seven undrilled natural spring gossans and related vegetation kill zones identified there in the Yukon.  According to MCK, the Tell gossan, located immediately south of ATAC's Rau block, has never been drill tested, but early testing has found up to 4.95% zinc in soils.    Base metals in soils at a very similar gossan/kill zone was one of the pathfinder elements which led to ATAC's nearby discovery of the Ocelot zone.  Manson Creek says that there are "significant lead and various pathfinder elements present for gold."  A 2,000m drill program is being planned for the 2012 season in addition to other early stage work. – More in the presentation at the link below.  Shares of MCK.V closed at C $0.065 Thursday, January 19.     Source:  Manson Creek Resources http://www.manson.ca/pdf/presentation/January%202012%20MCK%20Webpresentation.pdf Disclosure:  Manson Creek Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and one of the issues we have dubbed a Cheapie with a Chance (CWC).  Members of the GGR team hold long positions in MCK.V or MCKRF.

More Evidence that JP Morgan Stuck the Knife in MF Global Posted: 19 Jan 2012 02:15 PM PST The death of MF Global and JP Morgan's role in its demise is starting to look like a beauty contest between Cinderalla's ugly sisters. As much as most market savvy observers are convinced that there is no explanation for how MF Global made $1.2 billion in customer funds went poof that could exculpate the firm, JP Morgan's conduct isn't looking too pretty either. Reader Michael C sent a link to a Reuters investigative piece on the MF Global collapse, and it's a doozy. While in proper journalistic form it is careful about reaching firm conclusions on a post mortem that is still underway, the pattern it has uncovered is not surprising to those of us who are onto JP Morgan. As many, including this blogger, have pointed out, it was JP Morgan that did in the doomed Lehman by withhold $7 billion of cash and collateral. And we've written how it used one of its best private clients, billionaire investor and industrialist Len Blavatnik, as a stuffee for toxic subprime debt in summer 2007, when every financial firm was desperate to offload US housing dreck. The short form of the Reuters story is that JP Morgan, by virtue of being both a lender to MF Global as well as clearing its trades, has a big information advantage and could see how distressed the firm was. MF Global drew down the full amount of a newly-syndicated $1.3 billion credit facility, a huge warning sign. The Reuters story makes clear that JP Morgan went into "possession is 9/10ths of the law" mode, calling for full compliance with transaction procedures when normal business practice was to be more forgiving. The New York bank offers up the excuse that it lost money to MF Global, but that is not the issue. Any creditor to a bankrupt company will lose money. The issue is whether JP Morgan did anything irregular or impermissible to cut its losses, which in this case appears to have come in no small measure out of the hides of customers. The story is worth reading in full, but this incident gives a picture of the sort of behavior JP Morgan was engaged in: MF Global also decided to sell $1.3 billion of IOUs known as commercial paper. The short-term debt was part of some $7 billion of securities the firm sold that week. But this sale was critical, people familiar with the situation said, because MF Global had used customer funds to invest in the short-term debt and now badly needed to liquidate the IOUs and move cash into the customer accounts to meet their demands. The investments in the IOUs were allowed by industry regulations, these people said. For help, Corzine turned to his old employer, Goldman Sachs, which specializes in trading the short-term paper. Corzine phoned Goldman President Gary Cohn to ask him to buy the IOUs, offering a slight discount, according to people familiar with the situation. Cohn agreed, and Goldman traders made the purchases, these people said. Because it needed the cash immediately, MF Global sought to settle the deal that day, according to Corzine's testimony in Congress. JPMorgan, in its role as middleman, was able to control the speed with which MF Global's asset sales were processed, according to people familiar with the situation. Two people familiar with the transaction say that JPMorgan was slow to process the trade…It remains unclear exactly whether cash from the sale was ultimately routed to MF Global. This was not a time of generalized market stress. Goldman was clearly good for the trade. JP Morgan hanging on the money had nothing to do with that trade and everything to do with it trying to lower its credit exposure. I don't know why there isn't more noise about how this situation illustrates the dangers of having a bank be both a major clearing firm and a lender (ex via clearing exposures) to the same customers. Either JP Morgan should hive off its clearing business or there needs to be much stricter regulation about these conflicts of interest. It's also pretty clear that a lot of customer money is sitting at JP Morgan, but JP Morgan will argue in bankruptcy court that it should not have to disgorge it (it almost doesn't matter what the facts are, JP Morgan will lawyer up to make the case). Unfortunately, since most of the counterparties hurt don't have the political clout of TBTF bank, JP Morgan is unlikely to take a reputational hit anywhere close to what it might deserve.

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