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- Gold: A Commodity Or A Currency?
- 6 Tech Stocks Poised For Strong Gains In January
- Gold The Most Explored Mineral Commodity
- Gold price rises again – its 11th consecutive year
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/04/12
- New Parody: Eric Sprott vs Hitler.
- We could be dangerously close to a global bank run
- Year End Review – 2012 Outlook
- Special Pricing on First Allotment of 2012 Silver American Eagles
- Buyers returning to the gold market?
- Special January Gold Offer
- Top strategist Wien predicts another winning year for gold
- These stunning statistics show the middle class is being wiped out
- Gold bugs’ unmerry Christmas
- Simon Black's Forecast is Black or Bleak
- Embry and Sinclair dispel the depression in the gold sector
- As Gold Tops $1,600...Gartman Says 'I Missed the Lows'
- As Gold Tops $1,600...Gartman says ‘I Missed the Lows’
- An exercise in futility -- Thank you for contacting the New York Fed
- Richard Russell - We are Watching Market History in Gold
- 2011: Dud - or Springboard?
- Gold bugs' un-merry Christmas...But Radical Bugs say they know why
- Ann Barnhardt: Living on Borrowed Time
- Silver Update: “By Their Fruits”
- Market Ralley Closes Year
- Argonaut Gold Mentioned in National Post
- Major Bottom in the Precious Metals Sector
- These 8 Analysts See Gold Going to $3,000 – $10,000 in 2012! Here’s Why
- “Stagnation” a Threat to Gold’s Bull Market as Indian Demand Falls 56%, Eurozone Bank Lending “Collapses”
- Gold Resolutions For 2012
| Gold: A Commodity Or A Currency? Posted: 04 Jan 2012 06:34 AM PST By Angad Guglani: Over the last 10 years gold has been on a seemingly unstoppable rally. The effects are everywhere, in cities across the country strip malls have been invaded by a swarm of "we buy gold" stores, the infamous Tupperware parties of suburbia have been replaced by gold buying parities, and a whole new crop of illiterate investors are buying gold. We have seen a resurgence of the gold bugs who have come out of the wood work to preach metal to all who will listen.
Those who are bullish on gold have a few key phrases they use to justify the rise in price. They include: gold has never been worth zero; in a time of crisis gold will retain value; and all investors should hold gold as a hedge. All of these statements fundamentally lie on one assumption, when panic arrives and the forecasted doomsday happens people will want gold. Complete Story » |
| 6 Tech Stocks Poised For Strong Gains In January Posted: 04 Jan 2012 06:28 AM PST By Rougemont: 2011 was a very difficult year for many investors and many stocks ended the year much lower. The constant volatility, concerns over systemic risk of a banking and credit collapse emanating from the European credit crisis has led many investors to give up hope. With so many factors at work that no investor has any control over, it's easy to see why so many investors have decided to hit the sell button and walk away. However, this lack of interest is helping to create some very cheap valuations in the stock market. In particular, it makes sense to look at some tech stocks that have been sold down to bargain levels. Technology will continue to play a big role globally and the average person and business is likely to grow more dependent on technology in the future. I have researched a number of tech stocks that are trading well below Complete Story » |
| Gold The Most Explored Mineral Commodity Posted: 04 Jan 2012 04:10 AM PST Goldchat |
| Gold price rises again – its 11th consecutive year Posted: 04 Jan 2012 03:15 AM PST Gold has done it again. For the eleventh year in a row, the gold price rose in terms of US dollars. Gold's rate of exchange to the US dollar climbed 10.2% in 2011, so an arithmetic average of ... |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/04/12 Posted: 04 Jan 2012 02:12 AM PST I appologize for the late postnig this morning.. All my trader friends are bullish. I would prefer to pay $1,630 for gold, than pay $1,610. Euphoria has ebbed from yesterday. The better economic numbers yesterday were much more bullish for secondary metals, in terms of percentage gains than for gold. How does Europe avoid a recession? How does China not slow down, with 40% of its exports going to Europe?How does the US prosper when CEO's wont make decisions because of the uncertainty in Washington? Hard to step in front of a bullish train in the markets, but cant seem to get too excited about buying a ticket for the ride. Still a traders market, until, IF, gold leaves the $1,630 station. |
| New Parody: Eric Sprott vs Hitler. Posted: 04 Jan 2012 01:20 AM PST I dunno about this one...:biggrin: |
| We could be dangerously close to a global bank run Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:21 AM PST From Gonzalo Lira: Nine weeks after its bankruptcy, the general public still hasn't quite realized the implications of the MF Global scandal. My own sense is, this is the first tremor of the earthquake that's coming to the global financial system. And how the central banks and financial regulators treated the "Systemically Important Financial Institutions" that had exposure to MF Global—to the detriment of the ordinary, blameless customer who got royally ripped off in its bankruptcy—is both the template of how the next financial crisis will be handled, and an accelerator that will make the next crisis happen that much sooner. ... Now, what does this mean? It means that nobody's money is safe... Read full article... More on the MF Global scandal: WARNING: The MF Global "contagion" is quietly spreading Must-read: "The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse" More outrageous details emerge about Jon Corzine, Democrats, and the MF Global collapse |
| Year End Review – 2012 Outlook Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:17 AM PST Analysts and forecasters are saying that 2012 will be the year that gold breaks $2,000 per ounce and that silver will push $70! |
| Special Pricing on First Allotment of 2012 Silver American Eagles Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:17 AM PST Rock bottom pricing available only to our Austin Report readers! |
| Buyers returning to the gold market? Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:15 AM PST Gold and silver prices bounced yesterday, with gold recovering the $1,600 per troy ounce mark and silver approaching $30 per ounce. The sharp, v-shaped rebound in the price of gold in the past month ... |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:13 AM PST Rock bottom pricing available only to our Austin Report readers! |
| Top strategist Wien predicts another winning year for gold Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:10 AM PST From Bloomberg: Gold futures jumped the most in 10 weeks on demand for a haven following a report that Iran produced its first nuclear-fuel rod. Silver surged the most in five months as the dollar's decline spurred a commodity rally. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net. More on gold: This gold story could change your life Casey Research: It could be a great time to buy more gold and silver Eye-opening report reveals how gold could realistically reach $10,000 |
| These stunning statistics show the middle class is being wiped out Posted: 04 Jan 2012 12:03 AM PST From The Economic Collapse: Once upon a time, the United States had the largest and most vibrant middle class that the world has ever seen. Unfortunately, that is rapidly changing. The statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the U.S. middle class is dying right in front of our eyes as we enter 2012. The decline of the middle class is not something that has happened all of a sudden. Rather, there has been a relentless grinding down of the middle class over the last several decades. Millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas, the rate of inflation has far outpaced the rate that our wages have grown, and overwhelming debt has choked the financial life out of millions of American families. Every single day, more Americans fall out of the middle class and into poverty. In fact, more Americans fell into poverty last year than has ever been recorded before. The number of middle-class jobs and middle-class neighborhoods continues to decline at a staggering pace. As I have written about previously, America as a whole is getting poorer as a nation... and as this happens, wealth is becoming increasingly concentrated at the very top of the income scale. This is not how capitalism is supposed to work, and it is not good for America. Sadly, if you look at the long-term numbers, some very clear negative trends emerge.... Read full article... More on the economy: Why next year could be even worse than 2008 Ten U.S. economic facts that are too crazy to believe Mind-blowing chart shows the government could be responsible for high unemployment |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2012 10:16 PM PST Gold bugs' unmerry Christmas Commentary: But radical bugs say they know why By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Santa brought the gold bugs quite a present last week. It was very big and extremely nasty. But maybe they can send it back. From the previous Friday's close to the low on Thursday, the CME February gold contract GC2G -0.05% plunged $82.10 or 5.1%. The gold shares, as tracked by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index XX:HUI +4.71% , were down 6.6% at their worst. Recoveries into the week's end enabled gold to finish down only 2.44% and the HUI down 2.54%. But by then, no doubt, most gold bulls were disgustedly drowning their sorrows. This was the reverse of what was supposed to happen. Thus, on the Friday before Christmas, the Japanese bullion dealer Mitsui remarked: "The gold price has gone up during the period between Christmas and New Year in 8 of the last 9 years (2004 being the exception), by just over 2% on average. If this trend continues, gold would stand around $1,650 by the year's end." Gold had in fact staged a nice $70 rally from the beating it took earlier in the month — a possibility that veteran gold bugs anticipated. ( See Dec. 19, 2011, column. ) What happened? The group I like to call the "radical gold bugs" (because they make not merely the traditional inflation argument, but also claim gold's price has long been artificially repressed by public and private interests) cried foul, of course. For example, Thursday's remarks at the website Jesse's Café Americain referring to "…this obvious bear raid on the paper precious-metals market over past four weeks. … One has to be a bit naive or disingenuous to ignore the blatant bombing of the market with large numbers of contracts for sale during thinly traded markets. This is the not the sort of trading that a profit-seeking trader would do." Click to Play Greeks fear 2012 will be even worse than 2011 Greeks fear 2012 will be worse than 2011 as their debt-laden country enters its fifth year of recession. With soaring unemployment and further cuts expected to wages and pensions, the mood is bleak. (Video: Reuters / Photo: Getty Images) What now? The technical damage, of course, is tremendous. Chartist Martin Pring says in his weekly: "Gold has now completed this upward sloping head-and-shoulders top and re-confirmed the break by tracing out a new low. … [Momentum measures] are getting oversold, and we may see a bounce. However, I think precious metals are in a primary bear market, and that is probably where we should keep our focus." Pring may be right about gold's being oversold. On Thursday, MarketVane's Bullish Consensus for gold fell to 56%, the lowest since Dec. 5, 2008. The lowest reading in that tumultuous year was 49% a couple of weeks earlier, so this really is extreme. An influential observer noted this. On Friday, The Gartman Letter (TGL) said: "We did not expect to see gold hold as well as it has or did in the past 24 hours, and we were not prepared yesterday to issue buying orders as soon as we shall be doing so. … We've been neutral of since mid-November. We are about to become bullish once again. ... This is a warning." TGL sold its large gold holdings earlier this month in its perhaps best-timed gold exit ever. Although widely denigrated by gold bugs (it's mutual), TGL actually has a pretty good gold purchase record. Another equally surprising bullish voice was raised on Friday by analyst Frank Veneroso, reporting on Lemetropolecafe.com. He said: "I think what we may be seeing right now is a bunch of traders trying to break a multi-year trend line in gold during the thinnest trading of the year in order to hit stops." "I have a hunch that some big central banks who are under-positioned in gold are buying into this break." Veneroso has an important place in gold history for conceptualizing, in the 1990s, the importance of Eastern physical demand to the gold price, then a new factor. But for several years he has dismayed gold enthusiasts by ignoring the metal. On Friday, however, he concluded forcefully: "If my hunch is right, after the current year-end chart-manipulation games, and with the turn of the year, gold will rise sharply in price." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...=home_carousel |
| Simon Black's Forecast is Black or Bleak Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:36 PM PST Another forecast worth reading is from Simon Black of SovereignMan.com. His approach deals with what he considers near-certainties in the next or next several years and is presented below. He presents six of near-certainties. Numbers 1,4 and 6 seem as close to certainty as one gets, especially if you don't constrain your forecast to a [...] |
| Embry and Sinclair dispel the depression in the gold sector Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:30 PM PST |
| As Gold Tops $1,600...Gartman Says 'I Missed the Lows' Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price began to rise the moment that trading began in New York on Monday evening...reaching its London high shortly before lunch local time. From there it sold off until Comex opened in New York at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. Then it began to rally anew...and hit its New York high at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern time. That was it for the day...and the gold price traded sideways from there. Gold closed the Tuesday trading session at $1,603.60 spot...up $37.20 on the day. Net volume was a fairly quiet 94,000 contracts.
The silver price action was a bit more interesting. The price rallied until very early in the morning in Hong Kong...and then basically traded sideways until 9:00 a.m. in London. Then it caught a bit of a bid until about 11:30 a.m. GMT...before trading sideways until 10:00 a.m. in New York...the time of the London p.m. gold fix. Then the silver rally really got serious...and at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, just like gold, the rally ceased...and from there it, also like gold, traded sideways into the close. Silver closed at $29.71 spot...up a chunky $1.85 on the day. Net volume, net of roll-overs, was pretty large at 30,000 contracts.
All the precious metals did well on Tuesday. Gold was up 2.37%....platinum up 2.29%...palladium up 1.53%...but silver was the star of the day, up a whopping 6.64%. There was a short note, including a neat chart, posted over at zerohedge.com yesterday on this big price move in silver. It was headlined "Biggest Silver Surge in Over 3 Years". It will take one minute of your time to run through it...and the link is here. It's worth the trip...and a 'tip of the hat' goes to Australian reader Wesley Legrand for digging up that short piece. The dollar got sold off right from the open on Tuesday night...with the low of the day coming around 2:00 p.m. Eastern time in New York yesterday afternoon. The dollar recovered a bit from there, but not much...and it closed down about 60 basis points.
With gold on a tear, the gold stocks gapped up...and stayed up, although they did close off their highs by a bit. However, the HUI finished up a very robust 4.71% on the day.
With silver up as much as it was, I was expecting the silver stocks, as a group, to do much better than they did. That didn't turn out to be the case, as Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was only up 4.96%. Even a lot of the smaller junior producers didn't do all that well.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 2 gold and 59 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday. Although there were only 59 silver contracts up for delivery, it's worth noting that the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan were the only stoppers. Jefferies was the short seller that had to deliver. The link to what little action there was, is here. Despite the horrific declines in both silver and gold last week, there were no changes reported in either GLD or SLV yesterday...and there haven't been any withdrawals from either ETF since before Christmas...so all of last week's action was the usual paper b.s. on the Comex. What panic selling there was, was probably gobbled up by the big SLV and GLD shorts. I'm awaiting the next report from the shortsqueeze.com website with great interest, as all this trading activity from last week should be in it. Well, the big surprise came from the U.S. Mint. But, in actuality, it came as no surprise at all to either Ted Butler or myself. The mint had a monster sales report for the first business day in January...and both Ted and I feel that these are sales that were done in December, but not reported until the new year. They pulled this stunt in December 2010/January 2011 as well. I guess they didn't want to show silver eagles sales over the 40 million ounce mark for 2011. Anyway, here are the sales figures. The mint sold 37,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes and...wait for it...3,197,000 silver eagles. The Comex-approved depositories had a fairly busy day for the last day of 2011. They reported receiving 1,179,202 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 568,913 ounces out the door. The final inventory number for silver for these five warehouses as of the end of December was 117,909,484 troy ounces. Silver Analyst Ted Butler posted his commentary to his paying subscribers on Saturday...and here are a couple of free paragraphs... "In Wednesday's article I described the latest 35% price smash since September and how it was solely attributed to the deliberate speculative selling tripped off by the commercials that resulted in the commercial buying of at least 33,000 net contracts (165 million ounces). This is such an extraordinarily large amount as to defy comparison with any other commodity (save perhaps gold). At the equivalent of 22% of the world annual silver mine production, it is so large that it would be impossible for any group to buy such a net futures equivalent position in any other commodity. That's because anyone trying to buy an equivalent futures position in copper, crude oil or corn of 22% of world production, would need to buy more than the current total open interest in any of those markets." "That the commercial crooks were able to pull it off in silver...and with prices falling 35%...proves beyond a doubt that the COMEX futures market still dominates and controls the price of real world silver. All the real producers and consumers in the world are held hostage by a handful (15 to 20) of commercial operators on the COMEX. There's never been a clearer case of the tail wagging the dog, or of a futures market operating illegally. Contrary to commodity law, the COMEX silver futures market is setting and not discovering the true price of silver. US futures markets were designed to allow for legitimate hedging. The 165 million net silver ounces of futures contracts that changed ownership on the COMEX since September 6 had absolutely nothing to do with legitimate hedging; it was all commercial speculation and manipulation." Washington state reader S.A. sent me this 10-year graph for gold...and I thought it worth posting.
It's been four days since my last column, so I have quite a few stories for your reading pleasure. I hope you have the time for ones that you consider important. A lot of these traders have now been tricked onto the short side of the market...and it will be interesting to see how they react as the silver price continues to rise. Negativity in Gold Reaches Epic Levels: Jim Sinclair. Gold Will Not Trade Below $1,500 Ever Again: John Embry. Silver gains 6.64%..Biggest Silver Surge in Over 3 Years. U.S. Mint sells 3.2 million silver eagles yesterday. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeFor 2012, Signs Point to Tepid U.S. Consumer SpendingAmerican consumers are running out of tricks. As the weak economy has trudged on, they have leaned on credit cards to pay for holiday gifts, many bought at discounts. They are dipping into savings to cover spikes in gas, food and rent. They are substituting domestic vacations for international trips, squeezing more life out of their washing machines and refrigerators and switching to alternatives as meat prices have risen. That leaves little room for a big increase in spending in 2012, economists say, a shaky foundation for the most important pillar of the American economy. "The consumer is far from healthy," said Steve Blitz, senior economist for ITG Investment Research. This story was posted in The New York Times on Monday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it along. It's a 2-page article that's worth skimming...and the link is here.  MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse: sourcesMF Global unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of securities to Goldman Sachs in the days leading up to its collapse, according to two former MF Global employees with direct knowledge of the transactions. But it did not immediately receive payment from its clearing firm and lender, JPMorgan Chase & Co , one of the sources said. The sale of securities to Goldman occurred on October 27, just days before MF Global Holdings Ltd filed for bankruptcy on October 31, the ex-employees said. One of the employees said the transaction was cleared with JPMorgan Chase. At the same time MF Global, which was run by former Goldman Sachs head Jon Corzine, was selling securities to Goldman to raise badly needed cash, the futures firm was also drawing down a $1.2 billion revolving line of credit it had with JPMorgan, according to one of the former MF Global employees. This Reuters story was picked up by yahoo.com yesterday evening...and I thank reader David Ball for sending it along. The link is here.  Global Bond Issuance To Top A Staggering $8 Trillion In 2012As households are supposedly deleveraging and European nations face austerity, one might suspect that global debt levels were stabilizing or even dropping. Think again. It will likely come as no surprise when we point out that the G-7 nations alone face a massive $7.3 Trillion (with a T) of sovereign-only maturities (and a further $566 Billion in interest payments) in 2012 alone. This incomprehensible number is worsened only in historical comparison as it's current level is 125% higher than was 'expected' at the end of 2010 (and 238% higher than was expected for 2012 at the end of 2009). This story was posted over at zerohedge.com yesterday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing it to my attention. The link to this very worthwhile read, is here.  U.S. Treasury ETF in FocusAs you are aware, reader Scott Pluschau is a regular contributor to this column. Scott is also a technical analyst...and here he is raising a flag on U.S. Treasuries using the IEF ETF as a proxy. If this sort of thing is your bailiwick, then the link to this thestreet.com posting is here.  Eurozone Debt Crisis: Leaders Warn of dangers facing economy in 2012German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she expects turbulence "The path to overcoming this won't be without setbacks but at the end of this path Europe will emerge stronger from the crisis than before," Merkel said in a New Year's television speech yesterday. She also said 2012 "will no doubt be more difficult than 2011". Merkel defended the euro, saying it had made "everyday life easier and our economy stronger". This story was posted on The Telegraph's website on New Year's day. It's Roy Stephens first offering the day...and the link is here.  Eurozone manufacturing falls for fifth month in a rowMarkit's eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly in December to 46.9 from November's 46.4, but marked its fifth month below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction. The level of manufacturing activity contracted in Germany, France, Italy and Spain as well as Greece, separate polls for Markit showed today. "Despite the rate of decline easing slight |
| As Gold Tops $1,600...Gartman says ‘I Missed the Lows’ Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST  Gold bulls are feeling more comfortable as the precious metal rose more than 2½ percent on positive economic data, but is it time to get in the trade? "I got unlucky in not turning bullish properly," noted investor Dennis Gartman said Tuesday. "It's still a long-term bull market, and I'll get bullish again. It looks like I missed the lows. Those things happen." This story was posted over at cnbc.com yesterday afternoon...and I thank Elliot Simon for sending me this story. It's a short read...and the link is here. |
| An exercise in futility -- Thank you for contacting the New York Fed Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST  The German journalist Lars Schall tonight recounts his recent futile efforts to get the central banking and treasury agencies of the U.S. government to answer questions about their likely involvement with the gold reserves of Germany and about their involvement in the gold market generally. If only mainstream financial journalists had the same interest in the issue and the stamina to challenge the unaccountability. In any case Schall's efforts add to the evidence that the U.S. government and the German government have many gold secrets. |
| Richard Russell - We are Watching Market History in Gold Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST  Here's a Richard Russell blog that Eric King sent me on Monday night. "This year's close for gold marks the 11th year for higher year end gold closing. To my knowledge this is the longest bull market of any kind in history in which each year's close was above the previous year. This fabulous bull market will not end with a whisper and a fizzle. I continue to believe that the upside gold crescendo of this bull market lies ahead." It's posted over a the King World News website. It's a must read of course...and the link is here. |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST  Monday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch had a lot of information about gold and silver...and if you're not signed up for this free daily product from Casey Research, here's your chance. You can read everything the Louis James, Alena Bialevich and Jeff Clark have to say about the precious metals at the link here...and sign up for the free daily service at the same time. |
| Gold bugs' un-merry Christmas...But Radical Bugs say they know why Posted: 03 Jan 2012 09:14 PM PST  Santa brought the gold bugs quite a present last week. It was very big and extremely nasty. But maybe they can send it back. From the previous Friday's close to the low on Thursday, the CME February gold contract plunged $82.10 or 5.1%. The gold shares, as tracked by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI), were down 6.6% at their worst. Recoveries into the week's end enabled gold to finish down only 2.44% and the HUI down 2.54%. But by then, no doubt, most gold bulls were disgustedly drowning their sorrows. |
| Ann Barnhardt: Living on Borrowed Time Posted: 03 Jan 2012 08:48 PM PST
From Jim Puplava and Financial Sense: Jim welcomes back Ann Barnhardt for another compelling conversation. Going beyond the MF Global collapse, Barnhardt believes that the financial system is at risk, and we are living on borrowed time. She also adds that it's time to go on strike against the big Wall Street firms. Much More @ FinancialSense.com |
| Silver Update: “By Their Fruits” Posted: 03 Jan 2012 08:45 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: Got Physical ? ~TVR |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST Here is our view of the year's closing numbers. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12217.56 -69.48 on 60% of normal volume on the last trading day of 2011. Momentum has been flat for two months. Traders strained to create a new bonus rally this week but the price was resisting at 12,250 producing a bear triple top. With higher lows in the past three trading sessions and our price closing above all moving averages, there is good chance for the delayed "Buy Monday" being extended to the 2012 first day opening next week. Support is 12200 on the open on Tuesday, 1-3-12, with resistance at 12,500. A new bull break out is common on the third try against upper resistance. However, in today's case, I think the traders simply ran out of time on calendar and yearly cycles. Watch for new buying in stocks next Tuesday with the Dow taking a run at 12,500 resistance. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1257.60 -5.42 on 50% of normal volume on this pre-holiday weekend. Momentum was mildly up and the close was above all moving averages. Price hit upper resistance against a down-sloping channel line. It briefly got above that line resistance but then settled right down on it to end the year. We are also progressing through a huge continuation triangle. The chart patterns being what they are now, we project a bull market opening for 500 traders next Tuesday. New support is 1250 and resistance is 1275. If follow-on upper resistance at 1275 is achieved, we would see 1300, and 1325-1350. This time last year, the 500 index in January-February rallied 1250 to 1335. It could very easily repeat that performance. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 570.79 -2.36 with the price moving up in a bull continuous triangle. Momentum is flat and volume was 70% of normal. Price is above all moving averages and has been on or above the upper trading channel line each day this week. This is very bullish forecasting a breakout. The next upper resistance is 580 and then 588. We forecast both of those numbers to be achieved in a new rally next week. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2277.83 -7.24 on 55% of normal volume and flat momentum. The close finished directly on the 50-day moving average of 2277.41. The close finished just three points above the 20-day moving average. The 200-day average is back and below at 2258.31. With convergence of three moving averages, two channel lines and being squeezed into a triangle apex, we forecast a rally breakout next week taking the price to 2300 resistance. Last year at this time, the Nasdaq rallied two hundred points from 2200 to 2400 by mid-February. This index is our leading indicator for the broader stock markets. Look for a strong rally to begin next week lasting at least six weeks with one pull-back profit-taking correction about January 16th. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 144.81 +1.30 with the 5th touch against upper resistance since the second week of September. We can see a modest head and shoulders developing in the bonds from Thanksgiving to the end of this month. Price remains above all moving averages with the 20-day just below at 142.96. The 50 –day is 141.84. The bonds normally peak and sell off in December through the first of February. This year, we see them selling with stocks rising and finding a supporting floor near 140.00. That price would place them on a 50% retracement between the 200-day average at 135 and nearby tops at 145. We forecast the bonds sell back in choppy markets for the next month between 144.50 and 140.00 support. Should the stocks continue the January rally into February, and we think they will, then the bonds could break-down under 140 in February to 137.50 support for about two weeks. XAU: Closed at 180.64 +1.21 on falling momentum and a flat-lined metal to shares ratio. Price is under all moving averages but supported at 180. We expect gold and silver and the related shares to be in a correction for most of January on a firm dollar at 80.00 amid a mixed bag of choppy prices within the CRB Index. January is not much of a seller or a buyer for the XAU. Consequently, we see straining choppy prices trying to reach up but not getting much follow-through buying. However, near the third week of January, the first of two rallies begin on the cycles and seasons. Those last about six weeks each and the first one begins at the end of February with the second beginning in the middle of March. On this Friday we closed on a down bar telling us no buying next Tuesday and perhaps some lighter selling. For the next month of January, look for the XAU to rise to the 20-day moving average and then eventually make it up to the 200-day moving average in about 2-3 weeks. That top resistance would be 200.00 on the index price. Gold: Closed at 1563.40 +17.00 on falling momentum that should begin to support next week. New support is 1550-1565 with resistance at 1585. Since a wave two corrective wave is due next week, watch for gold to sell back to 1555 support followed by a new rally during the last week of January. A normal 50% retracement for gold should take the price back to 1738.50 in later February. The larger rally for gold in the first half of 2012 could take the price to a double top at 1923 before more selling. Technically, we are expecting 2050 for gold in the first half of 2012. If so, the price will have to build off the trading range in 1738.50 to 1923. first; and then correct. If we cannot make 1923 by the middle of March, the 2050 might be delayed until the August-September highs on normal cycles. Silver: Closed at 27.71 -0.07 on falling momentum with a price resting on support on the bottom channel line. Silver has been trading in a very wide range of about $10 since last May. Currently the top is $38.85 with a bottom at 27.75. Next month is a seller during most years and this year should be no different. The floor has been established at $26.48. We can see silver at $42.85 by the end of April, 2012. It is terribly oversold and should be able to regain most of the lost ground during the next four months of trading. New support is $27.48 with resistance at $28.85. We should be flat to lower in a range of $27 to $30 during January. US Dollar: Closed at 80.24 -0.13 on peaked and flattening momentum. The dollar took a run at 81.00 but has settled back on 80.00, the very long running moving average. Support is the 20-day average at 79.71 with the 50 and 200 day average further below. New support and resistance is 80.00. With the Euro closing under 130.00 support today, we can expect it to drop more, to 129.50 next week. This supports the dollar and could push it up to 81.00-81.50 again on the March most active futures contract. Normally, the dollar would begin to sell-off in February through April, but with the inverse trade, the Euro, continually under pressure, the dollar should stay supported and trade in an index range of 79.50 to 81.50. This, until something happens at the March, ECB Brussels's meeting with central bankers to untangle their debt problems. Crude Oil: Closed at 99.70 +0.03 with the price above all moving averages. Momentum was skidding but has supported and appears ready to turn up. Oil prices trade in a choppy range each year from January 1 to the last week of February when refinery demand changes. Also the summer gasoline build runs from the end of February to the first of May. This annual rally last year gave us a run from $85 to a high of $115. The Middle Eastern fear premium goes in an out with politics and news. I think $5 of it is in the price right now with more to come. I can see a new floor at $92.50 support with a higher high of $102.50 through mid-February. Then the prices should pressure to the higher side on inflation, the gasoline build, refinery repairs and $5 more on fear. This combo should take oil to $120 by March or April. CRB: Closed at 305.30 +o.75 on flattened but now rising momentum. The funds oversold the CRB sector and are now coming back in with new buying. Grains have been firm to up on dry weather in South America, Oil has been firm to up and precious metals have regained stronger footing. Base metals should begin to rise when commercials in China come back in to buy before prices go up once again. The chart double bottomed at 295 and supported. Now, we are beginning a new rally. The next higher resistance on a 50% retracement is 330. We have the 50-day resistance at 309.78, the 200-day at 321.09 and a former top channel line at 318. Watch for a small rally to 310 on the 50-day average next week. -Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Argonaut Gold Mentioned in National Post Posted: 03 Jan 2012 07:14 PM PST Here is the mention: We used the FP Infomart's Corporate Analyzer to search through 409 metals and mining companies to identify those with some production, sales and earnings, whose shares have been climbing steadily – up at least 15% over the past year, 10% over the past 40 weeks and 2% in the past 13 weeks. To ensure the companies were big enough to be liquid yet small enough to be nimble, we required our candidates to have a market capitalization of at least $100-million but no more than $1-billion. The search turned up three companies: Argonaut Gold Inc., Foraco International SA and La Mancha Resources Inc. Argonaut Gold Inc. (AR/TSX), which went public at the end of 2009, now trades around $7, up from the $4 level a year ago, giving it a market capitalization of $640.9-million. It has no debt. Based in Reno, Nev., it holds an assortment of mines, properties and prospects throughout Mexico. Among them is the producing El Castillo (The Castle) open-pit gold mine in Durango state; San Antonio, an advanced exploration gold project in Baja California Sur state; the formerly producing La Colorada gold-silver property in Sonora state; and about a dozen more prospective properties in Mexico. Six analysts follow Argonaut and all see the stock as a buy. Their average 12-month target price is $9.53. "Argonaut continues to be one of a select few gold mining companies that has consistently achieved operation results," said John McClintock, an analyst at Mackie Research Capital. In a November report, Mr. McClintock, who calls the stock a buy and has a $10.30 target price, estimates Argonaut's production should grow to 199,900 ounces in 2013 from 70,800 ounces in 2011. Earnings should grow to $1.10 per share from 28¢ over the same period, he said.
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| Major Bottom in the Precious Metals Sector Posted: 03 Jan 2012 06:37 PM PST
Several Wall Street firms have recently published their gold price forecasts for 2012. Goldman Sachs predicts the price of gold will peak at $1,900 per ounce and average $1,810 per ounce in the coming year. Goldman attributes its bullish gold price outlook to further net buying by central banks and strong physical demand from investors, the ongoing negative real interest rate environment in the U.S., and continued European sovereign debt and global recessionary concerns.
The firm cautions that the biggest risk for the yellow metal is further strength from the U.S. dollar. As has been the case in recent months, investors could continue to view gold as more of a commodity than money and as a risky asset. Nevertheless, Goldman states that the factors influencing the yellow metal continue to point to higher prices in 2012.
Gold prices will rally again in 2012 to reach $2,000 to $2,500 per ounce according to a commodities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. UBS have reiterated their bullish outlook for gold and believe gold will average $2,050/oz in 2012.
Barclays Capital says gold will average $2,000/oz in 2012 – which is 25% above today's spot price.
John Embry, chief investment strategist of Sprott Asset Management, said the price of the yellow metal could possibly exceed $2,500 in the next 12 months.
At Sunshine Profits we also went out on a limb and guesstimated gold's high for 2011 at $1,800 and $45 for silver.
Australia's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics forecast in its December quarterly report that gold prices in 2012 would still go up 17 per cent to $1,850 an ounce.
A survey of the Professional Numismatists Guild (www.PNGdealers.com), a non-profit organization composed of the country's top rare coin and bullion coin dealers, almost unanimously points toward price increases. Coin dealers' predictions of where gold will close at the end of the first quarter in 2012 ranged from a low of $1,475 per ounce to a high of $2,155, with a mean average of $1,759.57. Their estimates for gold at the end of 2012 varied from $1,450 up to $2,575 with the average $1,976.22.
Predictions about silver in the first quarter varied from $24.35 per ounce to $57.50 with a mean average of $34.04, and from $23 to $130 with the average of $48.73 by the end of 2012.
The recent declines have left some gold investors feeling beaten, battered and bruised. But we have to keep in mind that over the long haul, gold is the ultimate safe haven and we believe that based on the underlying fundamentals which have not changed, it will go up in 2012. Our guesstimates for 2012 are $2,200 for gold and $50 for silver (silver is likely to outperform once it breaks through $50). Gold has risen 645% while the Dow Industrials has only gained 13% over the past decade. Gold has maintained its safe haven status for thousands of years and there is not another investment that can make that claim. No one ever mentions that in spite of the recent and much publicized decline, gold is still up $220.30/oz or 15.91% for the year. That's almost double the gains in the Dow.
To have a sneak peak at the possible short run developments, let's begin the technical part with the analysis of gold itself. We will start with the very long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)
This week, we begin our gold section with a look at the very long-term chart (if you're reading this essay at www.sunshineprofits.com, you may click on the above chart to enlarge it). Very little has changed since last week and for now it seems that gold quite often consolidates in a way similar to what we've seen in the past months. We're not in uncharted waters – we're seeing a quite common pattern in play.
The fact is that "breakdowns" similar to the one we're seeing just now have been (in all cases seen on the chart) followed by the final bottom of the consolidation (not too far below the line that is has broken), which was in turn was followed by a strong rally. In these cases, lower prices were never seen thereafter. Consequently, from both fundamental and technical perspectives, gold remains in a bull market, and what we're seeing right now may be the best buying opportunity that we'll see in the coming years.
The pattern has not been invalidated and a move to the level of previous lows is quite normal behavior during a period of major correction. At this time, the situation truly does not appear to be bearish. Gold's price is still above the September lows and no breakdown has been seen. Although prices did try to move below this level last week on Thursday, the attempt was unsuccessful. It did not hold, and gold reversed in intra-day trading and closed the day just above the $1,540 level.
We have adjusted our analysis due to the significance of the current consolidation pattern. Without any change in our long-term bullish outlook for gold, right now it seems that we may be on the brink of a change in the way gold trades. The current medium-term pattern is no longer viewed by us as a continuation of the 2011 rally – that rally ended and we're likely to see a new one start. This new behavior needs to be analyzed from more than one angle – a thing we continually do in our full analysis.
In the short-term GLD ETF chart, we first note the significant volume levels of the past two days. Price levels have reversed intra-day on significant volume and this is a short-term bullish signal. We have recently commented on the situation in gold – we wrote that bottom in gold may be in and that the subsequent rally in gold is just about to start. In the latter we stated:
(…) the situation in the USD Index is more bearish than not. The breakout above the declining long-term resistance line may be seen at some point, but until it is seen and verified, this situation here will not turn to bullish. The currently bearish outlook for the dollar translates into o rather bullish outlook for precious metals.
At present, data coming from the market seems to confirm this point of view.
Summing up, it seems that we have just seen a major bottom in the precious metals sector.
Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * *
Sunshine Profits provides professional support for Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| These 8 Analysts See Gold Going to $3,000 – $10,000 in 2012! Here’s Why Posted: 03 Jan 2012 06:25 PM PST www.PreciousMetalsWarrants.com Back in 2009 I began keeping track of those financial analysts, economists, academics and commentators who were of the opinion that it was just a matter of time before gold reached a parabolic peak price well in excess of the prevailing price. As time passed the list grew dramatically and at last count numbered 140 such individuals who have gone on record as saying that gold will go to at least $3,000 – and as high as $20,000 – before the gold bubble finally pops. Of more immediate interest, however, is that 8 of those individuals believe gold will reach its parabolic peak price in the next 12 months – even as early as February, 2012. This article identifies those 8 and outlines their rationale for reaching their individual price expectations. "No wishful thinking here! As I see it gold is going to a parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 for very good reasons: sovereign debt defaults, bankruptcies of "too big to fail" banks and other financial entities, currency inflation and devaluations – which will all contribute to rampant price inflation." Bock wrote another article in March, 2011 entitled Get Ready for Financial Crisis 2.0 in 2012 – It's Inevitable! Here's Why in which he expanded on his observations of the economic climate by saying in his opening comments: "2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion." Porter Stansberry: $10,000 "Our target for Gold since October 2010 has been US$6000 by December 2012… thru Q2 2013… Excess money printing will cause debasing of the mighty US Dollar. In this scenario of hyperinflation, wherein the…US Dollar is collapsing, the only way to protect your wealth is holding on to 'Physical Gold'. Please start thinking on the lines of "wealth protection" and "preservation". Physical Gold is the only financial asset in the world that is not simultaneously somebody else's liability. That is the reason why we have been advising everyone since 2009 to buy 'physical Gold' [and recommending that they] store the bars outside the commercial banking system as most commercial banks in USA and Europe will be "insolvent" by December 2012. We repeat – Physical Gold is the only asset which will give "best returns" from 2009 through 2012." Goldrunner: $3,000+
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| Posted: 03 Jan 2012 06:10 PM PST Tues 3 Jan., 08:35 EST WHOLESALE MARKET prices to buy gold rose Tuesday morning as dealers in London – heart of the world's professional bullion trade – returned from the New Year's holiday. Gold recovered almost all of last week's 5% drop before edging back to $1592 per ounce – a price first reached in July 2011, when investment demand to buy gold jumped amid the worsening Eurozone debt crisis and a looming downgrade to the United States' credit rating. Tokyo and Shanghai remained closed Tuesday, but other Asian markets led Europe in rising some 1% on average after new data showed a strong rebound in China's non-manufacturing output last month. Base metals rallied together with the Euro currency, which rose back above the $1.30 level first crossed 7 years ago. Silver bullion prices also rose, gaining more than 10% from last Thursday's near 12-month low to trade at $28.87 per ounce. Crude oil held near $100 per barrel, supported by a "risk premium" according to Commerzbank analysts, as the French foreign minister called for Europe to follow the United States in tightening sanctions against Iran over its nuclear development program. "Gold is still trading on risk appetite, rather than acting as a safe haven," Reuters quotes Ong Yi Ling at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "Gold is a unique hedge against the debasement of all fiat currencies," says Douglas Hepworth at Gresham Investment Management, which holds $1 billion of its $13bn commodities portfolio in gold, speaking to the Financial Times. "However in a period where you're not having stagflation but stagnation…it will do badly." In the 17-nation Eurozone, "The money multiplier has collapsed," says Societe Generale's interest-rate strategy team, pointing to last year's 46% jump in European Central Bank money holdings compared with just 1.7% growth in private-sector bank loans. "In other words the ECB is printing money but the transmission to the real economy is extremely weak." New debt issuance by Eurozone member states will total €740 billion in 2012 according to Swiss bank UBS – equal to almost 6% of the 331-million citizen region's gross domestic product. Speculators in the currency market last week raised their betting against the Euro to record levels, according to data from US regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The "net long" position of bullish minus bearish bets in US gold futures and options meantime fell back to is lowest level since late 2008, down by 3.5% to the equivalent of 422 tonnes. Including private investors trading gold futures and options, the speculative net long position has almost halved from its record peak of early August. The gold price has lost 4.1% since then. "As a percentage of open interest," says today's note from Standard Bank in London, "net speculative length is currently around 21.8%. This is well below last year's average of 31.8%, indicating a market that is far from overstretched." "Since the [gold price] peak on September 9th," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta in New York, "we have had lower highs and lower lows, and thus gold has entered a downtrend. "[But] while the long-term uptrend off the October 2008 low was breached during [last] week, it held on a closing basis on the weekly chart. Trendline support sits at $1538." Gold investment holdings in the world's exchange-traded trust funds crept 0.6% lower in the week ending Dec. 27th, according to analysis from the VM Group here in London, compared with a 2.7% drop in the metal's price. Latest data from India – the world's heaviest consumer of gold, which has no domestic mine output – meantime said Monday that imports of gold bullion fell by 56% year-on-year in the last 3 months of 2011, dropping to 125 tonnes and pulling full-year imports some 8% lower compared with 2010. "Imports were very bad in October to December," said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, in an interview yesterday. "People were even selling gold in November" – typically a strong time to buy gold during the Hindu festival of Diwali and then the wedding season which follows – because for some, "it was an investment," says Kothari, rather than the religious and social necessity more typically associated with India's world-leading demand. After raising its key interest rate 13 times since March, the Reserve Bank of India held rates at 8.5% in December, following the worst drop in manufacturing output since March 2009. Price inflation in consumer goods was last seen falling slightly to 9.3% on the official measure in November. Adrian Ash Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen's Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Posted: 03 Jan 2012 05:41 PM PST |
Ann Barnhardt discusses why the financial system is at great risk and why time is short.| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
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