Gold World News Flash

CNBC grill Schiff on Gold with Anti-Gold questions
London Precious Metals Catch Up with Indian Slump, China Ban, Fall to 2-Week Low
GoldMoney is no longer Gold Money
Corrections In The Gold Bull Market
Fla.'s Economic Pain, Anger Could Shape 2012 Race
Presenting NSSM 200: “Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests”
This Past Week in Gold
Here's what GATA accomplished in 2011; please help us do more in 2012
Stock World Weekly: Sound and Fury
BIX WEIR: A Look at 2012 – A Free Market in Silver, a Ron Paul Presidency & the Gigantic Ponzi Scheme [a SGTreport Exclusive]
Presenting NSSM 200: "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests"
Peter Schiff : The fundamentals have never been better for Gold
Announcing the Half-Way Winner for Miners Challenge
2011 - So Went Silver...
Trading Physical Gold: Is Gold In A Bubble?
Goldman's Jim O'Neill Is Now Officially A Completely Broken Record
Calling the Bottom in Gold and Silver, Forecast 2012
How Did Gold and Silver Perform in 2011?
Peter Grandich: I Now Have 2 Million Reasons to Be Bullish on Gold
Harvey Organ's Daily Gold & Silver Report

CNBC grill Schiff on Gold with Anti-Gold questions

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 06:45 PM PST

Write on schedule, CNBC meatheads and Goldman/Morgue try to discredit Schiff and Gold on air, then cut him off....

London Precious Metals Catch Up with Indian Slump, China Ban, Fall to 2-Week Low

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 06:03 PM PST

Bullion Vault

GoldMoney is no longer Gold Money

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 04:00 PM PST

Perth Mint

Corrections In The Gold Bull Market

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 03:49 PM PST

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Fla.'s Economic Pain, Anger Could Shape 2012 Race

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 03:46 PM PST

Florida is once again poised to play an important role in selecting the president in 2012. Its Republican primary on Jan. 31 is the nation's fourth nominating contest.

But Florida is a very different state than it was four years ago. It is reeling from the housing collapse — more than 200,000 homes are facing foreclosure — and suffering from an unemployment rate well above the national average. You can see the economic impact firsthand in places such as St. George's Episcopal Church in South Florida's Riviera Beach. The church's soup kitchen is open five days a week for lunch and dinner. The program serves more than 2,000 meals a week — and the numbers are up from last year. Read more......

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Presenting NSSM 200: “Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests”

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 03:12 PM PST

from ZeroHedge:

One of the topics touched upon by Eric deCarbonnel in the earlier article discussing the potential, if not necessarily probable absent further validation, implications of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is that of the nature of AIDS. Which got us thinking. While we won't necessarily go into the implications proposed by none other than Chuck Palahniuk in his book Rant (word search Kissinger, especially what Neddy Nelson has to say on the topic), it made us recall that particular National Security Study Memorandum, aka NSSM 200, better known as "The Kissinger Report" authored on December 10, 1974 and immediately classified under Executive Order 11652 until 1989, titled simply, "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests." What did the report say and why is it relevant, especially in our day and age when so many believe that all important substance – black gold – may have peaked? Well, since it has 123 pages full of very, very curious information as pertains to how US foreign policy is truly styled, we will leave it up to our readers to make their own conclusions, but here are some preliminary observations to help them on their way…

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

This Past Week in Gold

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 01:24 PM PST

Summary: Long term - on major buy signal. Short term - on sell signals. Gold cycle is at levels of previous bottoms, therefore, new buy signals and set ups are actionable if risks are manageable. Read More...

Here's what GATA accomplished in 2011; please help us do more in 2012

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 01:24 PM PST

9:38p ET Sunday, January 1, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA's 13th year, just past, was our most successful year, for many reasons.

-- We beat the Federal Reserve in our freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia:

http://www.gata.org/node/9560

We proved that, contrary to its many protests that it hardly has anything to do with gold, the Fed in fact has many gold secrets that it is determined to keep, and we pried two big secrets out of the central bank -- that it has gold swap arrangements with foreign banks and that it was represented at the secret April 1997 meeting of the G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee, at which central bankers conspired to coordinate their gold market policies:

http://www.gata.org/node/9623

http://www.gata.org/node/9628

http://www.gata.org/node/9657

We even compelled the Fed to pay court costs to GATA:

http://www.gata.org/node/9917

-- GATA was a big part of the "Brad Meltzer's 'Decoded'" television program broadcast internationally in October on the History Channel that disclosed how secretive and misleading the U.S. government is about its gold reserves, starting with those at Fort Knox. The program continues to be rebroadcast internationally. A few days ago your secretary/treasurer was interviewed for an hour and a half by a video crew working for another network TV program pursuing the gold reserve issue.

... Dispatch continues below ...

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-- GATA cracked the mainstream financial news media, winning, after great effort, a favorable acknowledgement in the Financial Times:

http://www.gata.org/node/10591

Of course we also had many failures with the mainstream financial news media this year -- many trips, telephone calls, and e-mails that produced nothing at all. But maybe it's just nothing yet.

-- We consulted closely with U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee's Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy, and his staff to get gold-related questions put to the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department

http://www.gata.org/node/9958

http://www.gata.org/node/9980

http://www.gata.org/node/10037

-- We provided crucial assistance to the federal class-action lawsuit brought against JPMorganChase for manipulating the silver market:

http://www.gata.org/node/10448

-- We compelled the Bank of England to admit that it conceals its gold transactions and interventions in the gold market:

http://www.gata.org/node/10635

http://www.gata.org/node/10778

-- We carried the cause of free and transparent markets in the monetary metals to financial conferences all over the world, including, for the first time, the biggest financial conference in Asia, the CLSA Investors Forum in Hong Kong in September:

http://www.gata.org/node/10468

-- We disclosed that the Chinese government knows all about the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme:

http://www.gata.org/node/10380

http://www.gata.org/node/10416

-- We organized our own conference in London in August, presenting, as speakers, most of the top people in gold investing from around the world, whose presence signified the growing respect for GATA's work. Despite some recent technical glitches, we hope to be offering DVDs of the conference proceedings for sale soon.

-- And of course through the daily e-mails of the GATA Dispatch we monitored and interpreted developments affecting the monetary metals and free markets.

But before we pat ourselves on the back too much, we have to admit that, despite all this progress, we have not yet won. As exposed as it has become because of GATA's work, central bank intervention in the gold market continues, more brazen than ever. We may have made the central banks double down, and perhaps cost them more gold than they expected to lose by this point, but they are still destroying markets and democracy everywhere. The struggle continues, and unfortunately the gold mining industry's trade organization, the World Gold Council, won't participate, despite an annual budget said to be greater than $60 million. That leaves the struggle to us -- and to you.

Your secretary/treasurer is a pretty good secretary and a fair enough typist, but a better treasurer would be traveling the world much more often, knocking on the doors of mining companies and investment houses, explaining GATA's work, and seeking financial contributions. We're not quite set up to do that, even as there are more lawsuits to bring against the bad guys; more journalists to appeal to, hector, and berate; more research to commission; and more clamor to raise around the world.

If you think that our accomplishments for 2011 were valuable, please consider helping us financially in 2012, especially if you haven't contributed financially before. We really shouldn't keep going back to the same loyal friends.

If you're an investor in mining companies, please contact their investor relations people and ask them to help us too. This is asking a lot, as mining companies are so vulnerable to the enemies of free markets in the monetary metals -- governments, which control mine licenses and enforce environmental regulations, and big banks and investment houses, which are both the agents of central banking and the main providers of capital for mine construction, mining being the most capital-intensive industry. But if we don't achieve free markets in the monetary metals, the industry that mines those metals will have no future, and it will die along with democracy and free markets.

This still seems to us to be a great struggle -- a struggle determining the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world, a struggle over whether those things are to be valued in free markets in which everyone can participate, the democratic way, or by a few central bankers conspiring in secret, the totalitarian way.

That is, though it may not be fully perceived yet, at stake here is nothing less than the whole world.

If you're inclined to help, please visit here for the necessary information:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

And if you do help, please let us know your e-mail address to make it easier for us to acknowledge your generosity. We won't share your address with anyone, and the U.S. government has it already:

http://tinyurl.com/b4wca

Here's to a golden (and silvery) new year.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 22-23, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme...

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing a silver commemorative coin:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

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Stock World Weekly: Sound and Fury

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 01:23 PM PST

Sound and Fury

(Excerpts from this week's Stock World Weekly)

"Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player, That struts and frets his hour upon the stage, And then is heard no more. It is a tale, Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing." (Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)

Shakespeare's famous quote wasn't written about the stock market in the year 2011, but it could have been. Hardly reflecting the tensions in the global economy, and volatility in the financial markets, the S&P 500 ended the year virtually unchanged. But the markets were far from dull. Without the help of the Federal Reserve's free money handouts to the Primary Dealers (in the form of Quantitative Easing and later, Operation Twist), and promises to hold interest rates down through 2012, we suspect the stock market would have better reflected the world's conflicts and the crises du jour.

The Dow and Nasdaq registered a little more life than the S&P, with the Dow up 5.3% and the Nasdaq down 1.8%. It was a traders' market. Playing the ranges, shorting overpriced stocks, hedging effectively, and knowing when to run, were winning strategies for surviving the sound and fury.

As Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker, wrote, "So much screaming and yelling and blogging and digging and questioning and panicking and crying and fighting and analyzing and hand-wringing and soiled diapers – and at the end, the S&P 500 closes down less than 5 tenths of a percent, de facto break-even on the year. Listen closely - the Gods are mocking us; the very heavens and firmament shake with their bellicose laughter....

A portfolio loaded with defensive stocks and Treasuries would've crushed the market. Conversely, a portfolio loaded with Netflix, Green Mountain Coffee, Sina, Baidu, silver, palladium and all the other "can't miss" garbage would've impaled you like a Transylvanian dissident. And the more you "traded the news" this year, the more your portfolio came out of it looking like ground hamburger meat, let's keep it real." (The Most Hilarious Year-End S&P 500 Finish in Market History)

Phil discussed his predictions for 2011, noting his "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future" article from December 19, 2010. In that article, he wrote "Obviously, I am fairly convinced that Global 'leaders' are making all sorts of policy mistakes handling the economy and I believe it will all end in disaster but that does NOT mean I am market bearish.

"Think of it this way: If you come across a fire that is consuming a house and the firemen show up and spray water on the outside, then I will stand there and tell you that the house will burn to the ground. However – I will also tell you that the house is going to be soaked. The two things are not mutually exclusive – just as a slow-moving economic collapse and a booming stock market are not mutually exclusive – especially if that collapse is the result of a transfer of wealth from the working class to the investing class (see the 1920s)."

While the global economy suffered severe financial and social repercussions of the global financial meltdown, the U.S. stock market managed muddle through the year largely unscathed, with the Dow making modest gains, the S&P going nowhere and the Nasdaq ending slightly lower.

The rest of the world didn't fare quite as well. As the New York Times reported "Despite the bruising it took in 2011, Wall Street managed to score one of the better global performances. Major European and Asian indexes lost anywhere from 6 percent (Britain) to 26 percent (Italy) for 2011... Some analysts said investors would most likely be better braced to handle policy changes in the nations that use the euro. 'Investor reaction should continue to get better," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. 'For as lousy as Europe's news is, it has got to be the slowest moving train wreck in the history of the financial world. It's the stuff that comes over the transom that kills us.'" (American Stock Markets End 2011 Where They Started)

The table to the right is by Doug Short, who summarized: "The final tallies illustrate that, although the eurozone financial crisis has garnered all the attention in recent months, the Asia-Pacific was home to the year's biggest losers. The SENSEX had the worst year, with a loss of nearly 25%. But the Shanghai Composite has fallen furthest from its interim high (see the inset in the line chart below). It is down a whopping 36.64% from its 2009 high, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and SENSEX in a near dead heat for next to last, posting declines in the 25%-26% area." (World Markets Year-End Review: Good Riddance to 2011!)

Discussing China and the new year, Phil wrote, "Another big question for 2012 is 'Will China avoid a hard landing?' I'm a more concerned that the real question should be 'Does the Emperor actually have ANY clothes at all?' We've already seen how well avoiding the hard landing went for the US and Europe – despite our 'leaders' and 'top economists' assuring us they could soft-land this puppy. Now the 787/A380 that is China is coming in for a landing and by all accounts, it's a very short runway."

One country to watch for signs of problems in China is Australia. Australia is China's biggest trading partner and a primary supplier of raw materials to Chinese factories. The Wall Street Journal reported, "(Chinese) demand is powering a mining and investment boom Down Under that's accounting for roughly 14% of gross domestic product and the lion's share of growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia says that mining-related capital spending grew by more than 50% this year. But dependence on Beijing's demand for resources, which accounted for most of the 64 billion Australian dollars (US $66 billion) of total exports to China in the 2011 fiscal year, makes Australia vulnerable." (Australia Risks China Hard Landing)

According to the Financial Post, "China's economic growth has slowed down for three consecutive quarters and economists widely expect full-year growth in 2012 to be below 9% for the first time since 2001 as business feels the impact of weakening demand from American buyers and Europe's festering debt crisis... Evidence has grown that the real economy — especially private businesses that create most new jobs — is being starved of affordable credit. Those concerns in part triggered a net outflow of capital from China in October — the first such outflows in four years — when worries about the global economy prompted some investors to withdraw speculative funds." (Risk of China hard landing rising)

Between the "Black Debt" plaguing the eurozone, the social upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, troubles in Japan, a probable "hard landing" in China, and the continuing malaise in the U.S. economy, it is difficult to make an optimistic case for the economy in 2012. If the stock market actually reflected economic conditions in the real world, there would be little reason to be bullish. However, the stock market is subject to a variety of manipulations, and the biggest manipulation of all is intervention by the Federal Reserve.

To quote Jesse's Cafe Americain: "Tell me what the Fed and ECB will do and I will tell you how stocks will perform. That is the nature of this market. The pricing of stocks remains largely inefficient, and often with a fraudulent intent." (The Most Significant Developments of 2011 with Trends in 2012)

When the Fed initiates programs such as quantitative easing, designed to give free money to the Primary Dealers to prop up the stock market, the stock market responds, at least for a while. (Arguably its response grows weaker with continued interventions - much as a drug addict becomes tolerant to his drug of choice.) With the Fed's unofficial "third mandate" to keep stock prices higher, we believe the Fed may intervene again, print more money, send the Dollar lower, and launch commodities and stock prices higher. Sadly, that scenario is the basis of our most bullish premise - events that are so destructive to the economy that the Fed may take action and turn the tide in favor of the bulls.

Phil gave us three bearish "disaster hedges" - ideas he shared at Phil's Stock World on Wednesday... We also have a new trade idea and several repeated ones this week from Pharmboy. (To read more details on the option trade ideas, sign up for a free trial. Pharmboy's updated ideas and an explanation of his favorite strategy - buy/writes - are here.)

2012 promises to be eventful. We are looking ahead to another Presidential election in a highly charged political environment. In the social arena, we expect worldwide outbreaks of violence, and massive protests, including more from the "Occupy Wall Street" movement after the weather gets warmer. We expect the global economy to be tepid at best, and ridden with crisis after crisis at worst. We anticipate more unemployment in the West, and a slowing export market in the East. While we're not bubbling over with optimism, we believe the New Year will be anything but boring.

Note: Our friends at Sabrient Systems are bringing in the New Year with their annual Baker's Dozen stock picks for 2012. Since 2009, Sabrient has published its Baker's Dozen – 13 top-ranked stocks expected to outperform - at the beginning of each year. Check out Sabrient's free, live interactive Webcast on January 5.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

BIX WEIR: A Look at 2012 – A Free Market in Silver, a Ron Paul Presidency & the Gigantic Ponzi Scheme [a SGTreport Exclusive]

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 12:13 PM PST

SGTbull talks to Bix Weir of RoadToRoota.com about 2011 and what lies ahead in 2012.

Part 1:
A Free Market For Silver & Ron Paul Presidency?

Part 2:
The Gigantic Ponzi Scheme & The Road To Roota

Presenting NSSM 200: "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests"

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 09:58 AM PST

One of the topics touched upon by Eric deCarbonnel in the earlier article discussing the potential, if not necessarily probable absent further validation, implications of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is that of the nature of AIDS. Which got us thinking. While we won't necessarily go into the implications proposed by none other than Chuck Palahniuk in his book Rant (word search Kissinger, especially what Neddy Nelson has to say on the topic), it made us recall that particular National Security Study Memorandum, aka NSSM 200, better known as "The Kissinger Report" authored on December 10, 1974 and immediately classified under Executive Order 11652 until 1989, titled simply, "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests." What did the report say and why is it relevant, especially in our day and age when so many believe that all important substance - black gold - may have peaked? Well, since it has 123 pages full of very, very curious information as pertains to how US foreign policy is truly styled, we will leave it up to our readers to make their own conclusions, but here are some preliminary observations to help them on their way...

The basic thesis of the memorandum was that population growth in the least developed countries (LDCs) is a concern to U.S. national security, because it would tend to risk civil unrest and political instability in countries that had a high potential for economic development. The policy gives "paramount importance" to population control measures and the promotion of contraception among 13 populous countries, to control rapid population growth which the US deems inimical to the socio-political and economic growth of these countries and to the national interests of the United States, since the "U.S. economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad", and these countries can produce destabilizing opposition forces against the United States. It recommends the US leadership to "influence national leaders" and that "improved world-wide support for population-related efforts should be sought through increased emphasis on mass media and other population education and motivation programs by the U.N., USIA, and USAID."

Thirteen countries are named in the report as particularly problematic with respect to U.S. security interests: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Turkey, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. These countries are projected to create 47 percent of all world population growth.

The report advocates the promotion of education and contraception and other population control measures. It also raises the question of whether the U.S. should consider preferential allocation of surplus food supplies to states that are deemed constructive in use of population control measures.

Some of the key insights of report are controversial:

"The U.S. economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less developed countries [see National Commission on Materials Policy, Towards a National Materials Policy: Basic Data and Issues, April 1972]. That fact gives the U.S. enhanced interest in the political, economic, and social stability of the supplying countries. Wherever a lessening of population pressures through reduced birth rates can increase the prospects for such stability, population policy becomes relevant to resource supplies and to the economic interests of the United States. . . . The location of known reserves of higher grade ores of most minerals favors increasing dependence of all industrialized regions on imports from less developed countries. The real problems of mineral supplies lie, not in basic physical sufficiency, but in the politico-economic issues of access, terms for exploration and exploitation, and division of the benefits among producers, consumers, and host country governments" [Chapter III-Minerals and Fuel].

Whether through government action, labor conflicts, sabotage, or civil disturbance, the smooth flow of needed materials will be jeopardized. Although population pressure is obviously not the only factor involved, these types of frustrations are much less likely under conditions of slow or zero population growth" [Chapter III-Minerals and Fuel].

"Populations with a high proportion of growth. The young people, who are in much higher proportions in many LDCs, are likely to be more volatile, unstable, prone to extremes, alienation and violence than an older population. These young people can more readily be persuaded to attack the legal institutions of the government or real property of the 'establishment,' 'imperialists,' multinational corporations, or other-often foreign-influences blamed for their troubles" [Chapter V, "Implications of Population Pressures for National Security].

"We must take care that our activities should not give the appearance to the LDCs of an industrialized country policy directed against the LDCs. Caution must be taken that in any approaches in this field we support in the LDCs are ones we can support within this country. "Third World" leaders should be in the forefront and obtain the credit for successful programs. In this context it is important to demonstrate to LDC leaders that such family planning programs have worked and can work within a reasonable period of time." [Chapter I, World Demographic Trends].

The kicker:

The report advises, "In these sensitive relations, however, it is important in style as well as substance to avoid the appearance of coercion."

And much more...

So just what do you call when Dr. Mengele applies the principles of eugenics, only not to his own population, but to everybody else's? We have no idea although it certainly sounds like yet another crack pot, tinfoil conspiracy theory.

For those who enjoy factual historical documents, here are some other of the good Doctor's (Kissinger, not Mengele) observations:

Because of the momentum of population dynamics, reductions in birth rates affect total numbers only slowly. High birth rates in the recent past have resulted in a high proportion the youngest age groups, so that there will continue to be substantial population increases over many years even if a two-child family should become the norm in the future. Policies to reduce fertility will have their main effects on total numbers only after several decades. However, if future numbers are to be kept within reasonable bounds, it is urgent that measures to reduce fertility be started and made effective in the 1970's and 1980's. Moreover, programs started now to reduce birth rates will have short run advantages for developing countries in lowered demands on food, health and educational and other services and in enlarged capacity to contribute to productive investments, thus accelerating development.

U.N. estimates use the 3.6 billion population of 1970 as a base (there are nearly 4 billion now) and project from about 6 billion to 8 billion people for the year 2000 with the U.S. medium estimate at 6.4 billion. The U.S. medium projections show a world population of 12 billion by 2075 which implies a five-fold increase in south and southeast Asia and in Latin American and a seven-fold increase in Africa, compared with a doubling in east Asia and a 40% increase in the presently developed countries (see Table I). Most demographers, including the U.N. and the U.S. Population Council, regard the range of 10 to 13 billion as the most likely level for world population stability, even with intensive efforts at fertility control. (These figures assume, that sufficient food could be produced and distributed to avoid limitation through famines.)

Growing populations will have a serious impact on the need for food especially in the poorest, fastest growing LDCs. While under normal weather conditions and assuming food production growth in line with recent trends, total world agricultural production could expand faster than population, there will nevertheless be serious problems in food distribution and financing, making shortages, even at today's poor nutrition levels, probable in many of the larger more populous LDC regions. Even today 10 to 20 million people die each year due, directly or indirectly, to malnutrition. Even more serious is the consequence of major crop failures which are likely to occur from time to time.

Countries with large population growth cannot afford constantly growing imports, but for them to raise food output steadily by 2 to 4 percent over the next generation or two is a formidable challenge. Capital and foreign exchange requirements for intensive agriculture are heavy, and are aggravated by energy cost increases and fertilizer scarcities and price rises. The institutional, technical, and economic problems of transforming traditional agriculture are also very difficult to overcome.

In addition, in some overpopulated regions, rapid population growth presses on a fragile environment in ways that threaten longer-term food production: through cultivation of marginal lands, overgrazing, desertification, deforestation, and soil erosion, with consequent destruction of land and pollution of water, rapid siltation of reservoirs, and impairment of inland and coastal fisheries.

Rapid population growth is not in itself a major factor in pressure on depletable resources (fossil fuels and other minerals), since demand for them depends more on levels of industrial output than on numbers of people. On the other hand, the world is increasingly dependent on mineral supplies from developing countries, and if rapid population frustrates their prospects for economic development and social progress, the resulting instability may undermine the conditions for expanded output and sustained flows of such resources.

Rapid population growth creates a severe drag on rates of economic development otherwise attainable, sometimes to the point of preventing any increase in per capita incomes. In addition to the overall impact on per capita incomes, rapid population growth seriously affects a vast range of other aspects of the quality of life important to social and economic progress in the LDCs.

The universal objective of increasing the world's standard of living dictates that economic growth outpace population growth. In many high population growth areas of the world, the largest proportion of GNP is consumed, with only a small amount saved. Thus, a small proportion of GNP is available for investment - the "engine" of economic growth. Most experts agree that, with fairly constant costs per acceptor, expenditures on effective family planning services are generally one of the most cost effective investments for an LDC country seeking to improve overall welfare and per capita economic growth. We cannot wait for overall modernization and development to produce lower fertility rates naturally since this will undoubtedly take many decades in most developing countries, during which time rapid population growth will tend to slow development and widen even more the gap between rich and poor.

And why all this is relevant for good ole' humanitarian Uncle Sam:

The political consequences of current population factors in the LDCs - rapid growth, internal migration, high percentages of young people, slow improvement in living standards, urban concentrations, and pressures for foreign migration ?? are damaging to the internal stability and international relations of countries in whose advancement the U.S. is interested, thus creating political or even national security problems for the U.S. In a broader sense, there is a major risk of severe damage to world economic, political, and ecological systems and, as these systems begin to fail, to our humanitarian values.

What are the stakes? We do not know whether technological developments will make it possible to feed over 8 much less 12 billion people in the 21st century. We cannot be entirely certain that climatic changes in the coming decade will not create great difficulties in feeding a growing population, especially people in the LDCs who live under increasingly marginal and more vulnerable conditions. There exists at least the possibility that present developments point toward Malthusian conditions for many regions of the world.

But even if survival for these much larger numbers is possible, it will in all likelihood be bare survival, with all efforts going in the good years to provide minimum nutrition and utter dependence in the bad years on emergency rescue efforts from the less populated and richer countries of the world. In the shorter run -- between now and the year 2000 -- the difference between the two courses can be some perceptible material gain in the crowded poor regions, and some improvement in the relative distribution of intra- country per capita income between rich and poor, as against permanent poverty and the widening of income gaps. A much more vigorous effort to slow population growth can also mean a very great difference between enormous tragedies of malnutrition and starvation as against only serious chronic conditions.

And it gets even better:

There is an alternative view which holds that a growing number of experts believe that the population situation is already more serious and less amenable to solution through voluntary measures than is generally accepted. It holds that, to prevent even more widespread food shortage and other demographic catastrophes than are generally anticipated, even stronger measures are required and some fundamental, very difficult moral issues need to be addressed.

Dot dot dot...

Full memorandum (link):

Peter Schiff : The fundamentals have never been better for Gold

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 08:40 AM PST

The rising dollar has pushed gold back into bear...

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Announcing the Half-Way Winner for Miners Challenge

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 06:19 AM PST

What a difference a year makes!

One year ago at this time when we announced the first-half winner in our first miners' contest it was "party time" as the sector was flying high – and it was difficult to find any precious metals miner (inside or outside the contest) which was struggling. Today, as we reach the halfway point of the 2011-12 Great Panther Silver Miners Challenge things are much different.

Heading into this fall, expectations were that we were headed for a similar performance to 2010. Such expectations were entirely reasonable. Valuations of the miners (in comparison to bullion prices) were already compressed, meaning the rational direction for valuations to go was significantly higher rather than lower.

However, as veteran investors in these miners know only too well, throughout this 10+ year bull market for gold and silver (and the companies that mine those metals) there have been several episodes where valuations hit improbably bearish extremes. What makes such pull-backs "improbable" is that there is obviously no rational reason for investors to shun companies reporting record profits, in a sector which is in the middle of a long-term bull market.

Ultimately, whether we choose to brand such episodes as this as examples of market-manipulation, or simply periods of "irrational volatility" is irrelevant. Irrespective of what is holding these companies down at the moment they are certain to break out of their current "funk" – and likely sooner than later.

There are two facts which make this a certainty. First of all there is no other class of equities which can compete with the favorable fundamentals enjoyed by these gold and silver miners. Secondly, absolutely nothing has changed with respect to current fundamentals and future prospects for this sector – other than that they continue to steadily improve.

With that overview of the sector behind us, it's time to look at our contest standings and announce our half-way leader, and winner of the prize package offered by our generous sponsor, Great Panther Silver. As a reminder, here's a complete breakdown of the prizes offered for this year's Miners Challenge, from Great Panther's own inventory of bullion products:

2011 - So Went Silver...

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST

On any given year the market has chapters and plot lines as thick as any melodramatic soap opera. Less we forget, emotions are the heartstrings that drive these seemingly random and whimsical dances. Read More...

Trading Physical Gold: Is Gold In A Bubble?

Posted: 01 Jan 2012 05:16 AM PST

gbi-_gold_bullion_international

Happy New Year to all on this first day of January, 2012! This is the 4th installment (of 5) of my interview of the CEO of GBI (Gold Bullion International), a unique firm located on Wall Street that allows investors (retail & institutional) to actually buy, sell, trade and store physical gold in the investor's own name. The previous installments (listed below) feature some very tough questions. BoomBustBlog interviews are not pushovers or advertisements. You must be able to hold your own.

Save Your ASSets First

Monday, January 2, 2012