Gold World News Flash 2

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Are ETF Flows Sending A Warning Signal On Gold?
Japan: Prepare For The Unthinkable
Riders On The Gold and Silver Storm
Thursday Options Recap
Book Review: 'Conversations With Wall Street'
How Gold, Silver And Platinum Will Respond To ECB's Money Printing
Gold Miner ETFs Look To Catch Up To Bullion In 2012
Collins Stewart's Picks: Best Retail And Consumer Stocks For 2012
“Thin Holiday Trade” Sees Gold Flat as Euro Stocks Rally, Swiss Politicians Reject Negative Rates
Bullish & Bearish Arguments For Precious Metals in 2012
Richard Russell Issues Mega Bearish Warning
Are Guns and Ammo the New Gold and Silver?
Fleeing Greeks bank on new Australian gold rush
Gold and silver the currency of the elite in the Great Financial Crisis - Thunder...
WATCH: InfoWars Nightly News
Gold and Silver The Currency of the Elite
Interest Rates in a Gold Coin Standard
Gold climbing wall of worry just as it did in 70s, Lassonde tells King World News
LISTEN: Philipp Bagus on Moral Hazard & Gold
Bearish Gold Predictions Forget One Important Reality
Over 20 million oz of silver does not exist in SLV vaults
End of America: The U.S. debt crisis just passed a terrible landmark
Gold Prices: Could They Hit $2,500 in 2012?
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 12/22/11
The rise and fall of bitcoin:
Important Update on Gold and Silver …
Markets remain cautious about ECB move
Gold & Silver Market Morning, December 22, 2011
Gold Climbing 'Wall of Worry' Just as it Did in the '70s: Pierre Lassonde
Gold bottoming around $1,600...$2,100 likely early in 2012, Hinde report says

Are ETF Flows Sending A Warning Signal On Gold?

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:50 AM PST

By John Spence:

Technical analysts trying to guess gold's next move are closely monitoring bullion holdings and flows in gold exchange traded funds as key sentiment indicators.

Holdings in bullion-backed gold ETFs hit an all-time high of about 2,361 metric tons on Dec. 14, but fell for a fifth straight day on Wednesday to the lowest level since Nov. 17, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

"Declines in ETF holdings may affect the price in the short-term," Colin Hamilton, an analyst at Macquarie Group, told Bloomberg.

It's difficult to pin down just how much the introduction of ETFs backed by gold and other precious metals in recent years has fueled the dramatic rally. However, there is no doubt ETFs have made it much easier to buy gold and attracted new entrants to the market.

The ETF shares are backed by bullion held in vaults, and remove the need to transport, store and insure precious metals.

Inflows

Complete Story »

Japan: Prepare For The Unthinkable

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:48 AM PST

By Dorsey Wright Money Management:

By Andy Hyer

Not that it could implode (everyone expects that), but that it might be a great buy. Brett Arends writes:

The moment you read the word Japan, I'll bet your eyes glazed over. I'll bet you thought about flipping the page to see if there was something more interesting elsewhere in this month's issue — on Greek bonds, maybe, or Apple. (Or gold?) You're not alone. No one wants to hear about Japan. Fund managers have lost money on Japanese shares every year they can remember, except 2005. Tokyo has been in a bear market for 20 years — about as long as commodities were.
How are the mighty fallen! Twenty-two years ago, Japanese stocks accounted for nearly half the value of the world's stock markets. The land occupied by the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was valued more highly than all of California. The Japanese were conquering the

Complete Story »

Riders On The Gold and Silver Storm

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:48 AM PST

Those of us who are buyers and believers in the long term continuing secular rise in resource equities are going through a time of testing. The marketplace will present participants with years such as 2011.
We reiterate our guiding principles at precisely these times that tests our basic mission statement. First and foremost is the avoidance of margin. Mining stocks are characteristically volatile and subject to turbulent corrections.
Being able to buy and hold in such maelstroms rewards the brave with eventually impressive profits. The commodity arena has never promised us a rose garden. In order to reap the rewards of speculation one must know the territory through which one is passing. This year we have crossed a lonesome valley of mining investments.
The challenges are immense. The rewards are even greater or else why do we endure the slings and arrows of outrageous fortunes if not to enjoy substantial profits.

To be right in the market, the consensus has to believe that you are wrong. Everything is down across the board in the junior mining (GDXJ) sector, yet we begin to detect what we forecasted a few months ago. Bernanke and the European Central Bank has arrows in their quivers, but in 2011 they have certainly chosen questionable ones.
The markets have voted to criticize their choices as being inadequate. Now we have seen the investors vote a resounding "No!" to both Obama, The Federal Reserve and The European Central Bank.
What is needed is debt reduction, entitlement reform and a coherent approach to taxation that does not punish the entrepreneur and the middle class in order to correct the market malaise. Until the leaders adopt rational policies instead of making empty speeches and blaming one another, such ambivalence will be regarded as just what it is, bromides and banalities. All the rest is commentary.
Plain talk and common sense are required here. Beware of making decisions based on panic and fear. There are monsters aplenty to frighten and confuse us off of our course. Precisely now we reiterate our basic motif.
1)Margin is to be avoided at all costs. We can not repeat this enough.
2)Mineral resources will continue to represent value and essentials for the survival of modern, industrial societies.
3)Mankind has not come this far in order to reenter the caves from which we came. Truly we are endowed by Our Creator with "certain inalienable rights".
4)Rare earths (REMX) will continue to be needed for its manifold uses. It should be represented among the winners in the next market rally. Downtrends feel like they will never end, but they do.
5)Gold (GLD) and Silver(SLV) will continue as standards of value as they have for the past millennia.
6)Nuclear energy (NLR) will stand as the central pillar of energy provision alongside solar and wind power.
7)The ascent of civilization continues to progress upwards.
With the above provisos firmly in mind, how do we apply these halcyon concepts to the here and now? The battlefields of mining equities (GDX) are awash in a sea of red. Yet we detect some positive developments to be used as milestones. Gold (GLD), Silver(SLV) and mining equities (SIL) are finding support despite all the doom and gloom and year end tax loss selling. This may qualify as a valid divergence from which a turnaround may occur. Whether such a turnaround represents a new bull market in mining stocks or just a relief rally remains to be seen.
Rallies do occur even in the most negative of markets. In early October, the advance-decline ratio on the NYSE was almost 10 to 1. This may have marked a selling climax at our confirmed October 4th low in the Dow Industrials (DIA) and the S&P 500(SPY).
It remains to be seen how our chosen select sectors will act in this ongoing rise. It is hoped that the recent negative action of gold and silver represent forced selling by marginal players who frequently throw in their winning positions to offset their tax loss selling. It will not be too long before the European Central Banks recognize the store of value of gold that they will add to their coffers.
As for uranium miners (URA), we feel they are priced far below value. Nuclear plants continue to be built all over the world. In fact Russia stated that not only are they building new plants but that they are increasing the lifespan of their existing reactors by fifteen years. Moreover, the Japanese Premier Noda is actively pushing for the restarting of Japan's nuclear plants in order to avoid industrial collapse.
Technically, the uranium and rare earth charts look extremely oversold as they test 2011 lows. It gives dispirited holders reason to walk away, exactly at the wrong time in view of the positive aspects noticed above.
Our mission statement to encourage investments in long term wealth in the earth situations that are significantly undervalued. Short selling is a perilous pursuit. Bonds(TLT) and the U.S. dollar (UUP) are dangerous investments in light of record debt levels. Difficult as it may seem we continue to be riders on the storm.
At this time our sectors are down, margin calls abound and tax loss selling continue to skew most stocks and precious metals to the downside. Do not be dismayed, one does not go short now. Our wealth in the earth stocks are inexpensive, undervalued and oversold and once again reason will prevail and sanity will return to the marketplace as it always has.
Subscribe to my free newsletter to get up to the minute updates on rare earths, uranium, gold and silver.

Thursday Options Recap

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:40 AM PST

By Frederic Ruffy:

Sentiment

A hefty dose of economic data failed to stir market volatility and trading is slow ahead of the holiday weekend. Many players have already hit the exits and overall equity volume is running at 70 percent the normal. Data was in focus early and included a host of numbers, including better-than-expected readings on Weekly Jobless Claims, Univ of Michigan Sentiment, and Leading Indicators. However, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the third quarter, GDP fell .2 percent below expectations. The data didn't move the market and trading has been orderly following a round of gains across Europe's equity markets. The euro is not much changed at 1.304 against the buck. Meanwhile, crude oil added 82 cents to $99.49, but gold lost $7.3 to $1606.3 an ounce. Trading is uneventful on Wall Street as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47 points and the tech-heavy NASDAQ

Complete Story »

Book Review: 'Conversations With Wall Street'

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:12 AM PST

By
Complete Story »

How Gold, Silver And Platinum Will Respond To ECB's Money Printing

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:00 AM PST

By Avery Goodman:

Today, about 490 billion euros ($637 billion) worth of ultra-low interest "loans" will be delivered to European banks. This cash has been provided courtesy of the ECB, which denies that it will ever engage in printing money, like the Americans, Britons and Japanese have now done for many years. The "loans" are for a 3-year period. In return for the cash, the ECB accepts various forms of "collateral," which includes the debt of insolvent southern European sovereigns. This is the largest uptake of cash in the history of the European Union, including the cash given out by the ECB after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

This is merely the first of a series of so-called long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) the ECB is going to undertake. These are unlimited tenders of cash. The banks call the shots. Any amount they ask for will be given to them, subject only to the

Complete Story »

Gold Miner ETFs Look To Catch Up To Bullion In 2012

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:49 AM PST

By Tom Lydon:

Gold miner exchange traded funds have lagged the price of bullion in 2011 and are poised to end the year with losses. Will 2012 be the year that miner stocks can finally close the performance gap with gold prices?

Many gold mining companies are expecting the price of gold to hit new highs in 2012. They are also busy raising dividends and looking for takeover deals that will help put them in a favorable position.

"In the face of substantial macroeconomic uncertainty and the threat of currency devaluation, gold has continued to increase in value," wrote Abraham Ballin on Morningstar
Complete Story »

Collins Stewart's Picks: Best Retail And Consumer Stocks For 2012

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:44 AM PST

By Insider Monkey:

Collins Stewart is a London-based independent financial advisory group. On December 19 Collins Stewart published an initiation report entitled "Retail & Consumer Products" where they argue that the valuation of dollar stores has been fully priced in, rent to own operators ((RTOs)) will benefit from tough credit environment, home related names will be hit because of weakness in housing whereas the "health customer base" in case of home furnishing names will support these stocks. From the retail space they have rated 6 stocks as buys and below we will discuss their investment thesis on these stocks along with a neutral-rated company.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) is a retailer of products for homes, and it operates brands such as Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, and West Elm. Currently, it is the market leader in online retail with $1.2 billion in revenue which was three times higher than that of its next competitor.

It has been

Complete Story »

“Thin Holiday Trade” Sees Gold Flat as Euro Stocks Rally, Swiss Politicians Reject Negative Rates

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:31 AM PST

Thurs 22 Dec., 07:45 EST

"Thin Holiday Trade" Sees Gold Flat as Euro Stocks Rally, Swiss Politicians Reject Negative Rates

THE PRICE OF spot gold bullion was little changed Thursday morning in London, easing back from $1610 per ounce after yesterday's sharp spike and pullback in what dealers again called "thin" trade ahead of Christmas.

European stock markets reversed Wednesday's drop to trade near two-week highs.

Base metals and energy prices were little changed. Silver bullion traded just shy of $29.50 per ounce in London's professional wholesale market – a level first breached 13 months ago on the way up.

"Thin volume [in spot gold] on the way up proved to be a weakness," says one London dealer, "and as soon as Euro sentiment turned bearish the precious metals followed suit."

"A drying up of liquidity poses a serious risk to all commodities, including gold," says today's commodities note from Standard Bank, noting the "elevated level" of interbank interest rates in Europe.

"There has been a lot of disappointment with gold in the fourth quarter, especially from those who were banking on the metal's safe haven properties, given the escalating situation in Europe," says UBS strategist Edel Tully, quoted by the Financial Times.

Wednesday's 3-year loan of €489 billion from the European Central Bank to 523 commercial lenders was much larger than banking analysts forecast, suggesting greater funding problems in the money market.

"It appears that a very large majority of the large financial institutions participated," says Morgan Stanley's head of European interest-rate strategy, Laurence Mutkin.

"They've taken a lot of their [2012] issuance needs out of the market."

RBS economist Nick Matthews reckons that European banks face some €230 billion of maturing debt between Jan. and March next year.

The Spanish government sold €5.6bn of new debt on Tuesday at a surprise interest-rate of 1.7%, down from 5.1% in November because – some analysts now think – small and mid-sized banks wanted the bonds to offer as collateral to the ECB in yesterday's loan operation.

"Despite all the uncertainty in Europe we are not witnessing a credit event just yet," notes analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov at VTB Capital in London.

"Policy makers are constantly seeking to boost market sentiment and the Euro's credibility."

"If we don't see any change on the policy front, the tight liquidity will extend into the new year," reckons Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in China – adding to Reuters, however, that anticipation of more central-bank action will likely boost commodity and gold prices later in 2012.

China's National Social Security fund last week spent CNY 10 billion ($1.6bn) buying domestic-listed shares, according to Shanghai Securities News.

In the Swiss parliament Wednesday, politicians from all sides demanded that the central bank in Zurich do more to weaken the Franc against the Euro, thought to be hindering Swiss exports after attracting "safe haven" flows throughout the Eurozone debt crisis.

The Swiss National Bank this month repeated its target exchange rate of €1.20. Politicians called for that the Franc's value to be lowered to €1.40, with close "monitoring" of foreign inflows should the Euro crisis flare again.

Parliamentarians voted against a proposal, however, to allow the Swiss National Bank to take its key target interest rate below zero.

The gold price in Swiss Francs has risen 13% from the start of 2011, only just shy of the US Dollar gain, hitting a series of new all-time highs in July and August.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen's Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Bullish & Bearish Arguments For Precious Metals in 2012

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:25 AM PST

After the sharp drop in precious metals recently, many people (including me) wonder what will happen next with Gold & Silver (& other PM's).
To be honest, I don't know where gold will be in 1 week or a 1 month from now. However, there are some facts that are compelling, which can help us in our decision-taking process.
In this article, I will describe both the Bullish & Bearish arguments for Gold, Silver and PM Stocks.

Fundamentally, the outlook for precious metals has never been better: the crisis seems to be far from over, and a lot of money needs to be printed. This should bode well for precious metals.
Also, the fact that we haven't had a "mania" fase in Precious Metals yet (perhaps we had some of it earlier this year with Silver) is also supportive for the PM sector.

Short term, sentiment in Gold is pretty bearish, as the charts from Sentimentrader show us: Sentiment is below the green dotted line.
Those charts use a relative measure of extreme, that being 1.5 standard deviations from a one-year moving average. So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line or below the green dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, we're seeing a statistically extreme value.

However, back in 2008, Public Opinion on Gold was even more bearish, which should hold us back from concluding that we are at the bottom for Gold.

(Chart courtesy Sentimentrader)

Public Opinion for Silver however, is at extremely bearish levels and has been bearish for some time now. Back in 2008, a similar situation occured.

(Chart courtesy Sentimentrader)

However, the commodity sector is still very much influenced by the US Dollar. When people panic, they tend to rush into the US Dollar, as they perceive it to be a "safe" currency as it is very liquid. The following chart from Sentimentrader shows us that Public Opinion about the US Dollar is extremely Bullish, meaning a top in the US Dollar could be within a hand's reach. Whenever Public Opinion was this bullish over the last 5 years, the US Dollar was close to – or in the process of – setting a top.

(Chart courtesy Sentimentrader)

A lot of this "US Dollar Strength" is due to the weakness in the European currency. Please notice that Public Opinion for the Euro is at extreme Bearish levels, indicating that the Euro could be close to or in the process of setting a bottom, which would be bullish for precious metals (and stock markets).

(Chart courtesy Sentimentrader)

When we look at the weekly chart of the Gold Price during this bull market, we can see that price ALWAYS found support at the 50EMA (50 weeks Exponential Moving Average), except for 2008 when Deflation was the bogeyman. I marked all those events on the price chart, but also on the indicator on the bottom of the chart, which shows us the % difference between price and the 50 weeks EMA. Right now, price is very close to this 50EMA, meaning Gold might be in the process of bottoming.

(Chart: Prorealtime)

Historically, the Bullish % index for Precious Metals stocks has been a good indicator. Currently, it stands at only 13.79, which is a very depressed level. The only times it reached these bearish levels was back in 2008 and recently in early October.

(Chart courtesy stockcharts.com)

The factors above tell us Gold (and especially Silver) might be in the process of setting a bottom.

When we compare the Bull Market in Gold with the Technology Bubble in the 1990′s, we can see that Gold is still far away from topping…

(Chart: Prorealtime)

Serge from ETF-Corner made a similar analysis a couple of months ago, which shows us gold could even drop as low as $1,250 without doing any harm to the bull market:

Let's now have a look at the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) chart.

Commercials are still holding low Net Short positions. This should be a bullish sign for Silver.
However, we can see that in the past they have held even smaller Net Short Positions:

Commercials are considered to be "Smart Money", while NonCommercials are considered to be "Dumb Money".
If we combine both, we get a good view of the general market. Bullish Commercials (=low Net Short Positions) combined with Bearish NonCommercials (=low Net Long Position or even Net Short Positions) would be a very Bullish sign, as the Smart Money would be set for a rise in prices and Dumb Money would be expecting a drop in prices.
Currently this "indicator" is pretty low, although it went even NEGATIVE in 1997. This was because in 2007, Commercials held a low Net short position, while NonCommercials held Net SHORT positions (which doesn't happen often). Right now, we are still pretty far away from that situation.

What followed was an amazing run up in Silver prices, as Silver rose more than 80% over the next 6 to 7 months:

(Chart: Prorealtime)

In what follows next, I will show some worriesome charts.

Silver dropped below support at $30 and still has not managed to close back above it. Below current prices there is little support on the way down to the high teens (18-19$).
We are still far away from a buy signal on both the RSI and MACD.

(Chart courtesy stockcharts.com)

Gold could be in an ABC down wave, which could take it as low as $1,400.

(Chart courtesy stockcharts.com)

Back in April 2011, when silver was close to hitting my target of $48, I shared the following Quarterly Silver chart with my readers:

(Chart: Prorealtime)

We all know what happened afterwards. Perhaps it's time to get worried about the Quarterly Gold chart:
We now have 2 possible Exhaustion Candles, and Quarterly RSI is EXTREMELY overbought, which is unsustainable.

(Chart: Prorealtime)

A larger correction is needed for RSI to cool down. Perhaps Deflation will show up again in 2012?
Take a look at the following chart which compares the SP500 (currently) to the SP500 in 2008.
The similarities are striking.
IF (and yes, that's a big IF), the pattern holds, we would expect the SP500 to be catching its last breath right now before plunging in 2012.

(Chart: Prorealtime)

I'm not saying it will, but if it does, what should we expect from Mining Companies?
Just like in 2008, they would most likely sell off, even more than physical gold, which can be seen in the HUI/GOLD ratio.
Notice that the HUI/GOLD ratio is showing the same pattern now as in 2008 (a bearish flag), and that the MACD is about to break out of a flag pattern. If it breaks to the downside, watch out…

(Chart courtesy stockcharts.com)

Based on the analysis above, I would conclude that Precious Metals are in the process of bottoming right now.
However, if the bottom falls out, look out below, as we could then be headed for a 2008-like CRASH.

I wish everybody a Merry Christmas, and a Prosperous, Healthy and Happy New Year!

If you would like to read more Analyses, receive Trading Updates (we invest REAL CAPITAL) and get access to Nightly Reports, feel free to consider signing up for our services at www.profitimes.com!

Richard Russell Issues Mega Bearish Warning

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:17 AM PST

from Total Investor:

Here are some deep thoughts from the great Richard Russell that will give the bears something to chew on for a while:

"I talked with my good friend, Joe Granville, over the weekend, and Joe is as bearish as I've ever seen or heard him, based on his OBV volume figures. This checks with my own work and studies.

While fundamentalists scour the news for indications of bullish news, the internals of the stock market continue to deteriorate. Even the action of the stock market is bearish as the market rallies on dull volume but declines on higher volume. Furthermore, rising breadth is narrow on rallies while declining breadth is broad when the market heads down.

I don't know what more I can do or say to convinced subscribers that we are seeing the resumption of the bear market. This means that we should be OUT of all stocks. As for gold mining stocks, this is a personal choice. In due time, I expect gold to fully express itself with a huge upside blow-off. At that time I expect gold mining stocks to follow, but between now and then gold mining shares will probably be hit like every thing else by the fury of the bear market.

I should add that I am expecting this bear market to be far worse than most people expect or are prepared for. The fact is that I don't believe that Americans expect any thing more than a temporary spate of difficult times, an annoying patch that should be over in a year or so. This is not what I am expecting or predicting.

Once the Dow breaks under 10,000, I believe that the analysts and the PUBLIC will become frightened and start to cut back on their buying. The newspapers will halt their bullish stance, and a great stillness will envelope that land. That stillness will be the result of shock as it dawns on Americans that they are seeing something far different than what they were expecting.

By the way, the Dow is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which stands at 11,938. The 50-day MA is bearishly below the 200-day MA (50-day is 11,811).

Spiritual — While in rehab and after my hip operation I had a lot of time to think. And I wondered why I was still alive. I had survived combat in World War II. I had survived two heart attacks and a stroke. I had survived a mastoid infection and operation. I had survived 50 years of riding motorcycles with one dangerous crash. I had survived two divorces. I have survived (and believe me it was survival) a severely autistic daughter who almost drove me mad. I have survived the years, since I will be 88 (the Chinese lucky number is 8).

So why, I ask myself, am I still here with my brain still functioning. My conclusion, arrived at after a lot of hard thinking, is that I'm supposed to be the messenger of changing times. I have 8,034 subscribers. What percentage of these ladies and gentlemen take me seriously and follow my advice, and what percentage of this group think I am a self-opinionated loonie I don't know.

In other words, some body wants me to hang around. I know this based on e-mails and kind letters I have received from many subscribers. My advice over the years on gold and various bull and bear markets has resulted in changing some lives for the better. Which is a source of great satisfaction to me.

So that's my story. I'm afraid it may sound prideful or mystical, but it is what I think, and when a man is 87 years old, he's long past the need or the desire to lie. "

Are Guns and Ammo the New Gold and Silver?

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 04:18 AM PST

Shtfplan

Fleeing Greeks bank on new Australian gold rush

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 03:03 AM PST

Gold and silver the currency of the elite in the Great Financial Crisis - Thunder...

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 02:59 AM PST

WATCH: InfoWars Nightly News

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 02:58 AM PST

InfoWars Nightly News: 21.Dec.2011
FEMA Continuity of Government Plans Prep Total Takeover of Society, Dispatching Military Domestically Under Economic Collapse Emergency

Part One

Part Two

~TVR

Gold and Silver The Currency of the Elite

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 02:54 AM PST

Gold and Silver The Currency of the Elite in the Great Financial Crisis – Thunder Road

Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report always makes for fascinating reading and his take on the global economy, gold and silver is frightening and disturbing. Read, learn and inwardly digest.

by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:

I have a particularly soft spot for Paul Mylchreest's occasionally published Thunder Road report. The basis for the best read article ever on Mineweb, which on its own picked up almost 100,000 page views, came from an edition in 2009 – (see: China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses) . The information and insights in these reports is invariably controversial, illuminating and extremely prescient. I urge you therefore to beg, borrow or steal a copy of Paul's latest 52-page document which primarily looks into the politics and history behind the current financial crisis – indeed you don't have to do that – just download the report from Mineweb here – Thunder Road Report December 2011. As a window into Paul's view of what is happening to global politics and the economy, it makes for fascinating and disturbing reading from which you can then draw your own conclusions. We may not agree with everything in it, but it is certainly food for thought on the way the world order is changing.

Read More @ JSMineset.com

Over 20 million oz of silver does not exist in SLV vaults

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 02:00 AM PST

Maybe everyone but me already knows this - maybe not

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...44586-3-1.html

End of America: The U.S. debt crisis just passed a terrible landmark

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:23 AM PST

From Zero Hedge:

With precisely one year left for the world and all of its inhabitants, at least according to the Mayans, not to mention on the day of the Winter Solstice, it is only fitting that U.S. debt, net of all settlements for all already completed bond auctions, is now at precisely $15,182,756,264,288.80.

Why is this relevant?

Because the latest annualized U.S. GDP, according to the BEA, was $15,180,900,000.00. Which means that, as of today, total U.S. debt to GDP is 100.012%. Congratulations America: you are now...

Read full article...

More on the "End of America":

Powerful Op-Ed: The U.S. government has gone rogue

This could be the most frightening - and important - thing you'll read this month

Must-read: "The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse"

Gold Prices: Could They Hit $2,500 in 2012?

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:17 AM PST

No letup in investor interest.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 12/22/11

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 11:40 PM PST

It took gold a week to scratch above the 200 day MA. The euphoria of the European bailout lasted about five minutes, when the market suspected that the size of the borrowing from the banks, about $500mm Euros may have indicated that a problem really did exist, The now new support line didn't have a chance as traders blew past it without even a bounce. Much of the movements are due to very thin markets. By noon today most of the primary players will have called it a week.

The Santa rally looked initially like his sled was hit with a missile, but the markets managed to close unchanged. This was quite the year but I suspect 2012 will turn out to be the watershed.

Happy Holidays and I wish everyone a Healthy and Prosperous 2012.

The rise and fall of bitcoin:

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 10:33 PM PST

The rise and fall of bitcoin: Inside the virtual currency you can actually spend
By Benjamin Wallace
12 December 11
Attachment 13713
This article was taken from the January 2012 issue of Wired magazine. Be the first to read Wired's articles in print before they're posted online, and get your hands on loads of additional content by subscribing online.

On November 1, 2008, a man named Satoshi Nakamoto posted a research paper to an obscure cryptography listserv describing his design for a new digital currency that he called bitcoin. None of the list's veterans had heard of him, and what little information could be gleaned was murky and contradictory. In an online profile, he said he lived in Japan. His email address was from a free German service. Google searches for his name turned up no relevant information; it was clearly a pseudonym. But while Nakamoto himself may have been a puzzle, his creation cracked a problem that had stumped cryptographers for decades. The idea of digital money -- convenient and untraceable, liberated from the oversight of governments and banks -- had been a hot topic since the birth of the internet. Cypher-punks, the 90s movement of libertarian cryptographers, dedicated themselves to the project. Yet every effort to create virtual cash had foundered. Ecash, an anonymous system launched in the early 90s by cryptographer David Chaum, failed in part because it depended on the existing infrastructures of government and credit-card companies. Other proposals followed -- bit gold, RPOW, b-money -- but none had got off the ground.

One of the core challenges of designing a digital currency involves something called the double-spending problem. If a digital dollar is just information, free from the corporeal strictures of paper and metal, what's to prevent people from copying and pasting it as easily as a chunk of text, "spending" it as many times as they want? The conventional answer involved using a central clearing house to keep a real-time ledger of all transactions. The ledger prevents fraud, but it also requires a trusted third party to administer it.

Bitcoin did away with the third party by publicly distributing the ledger, what Nakamoto called the "block chain". Users willing to devote CPU power to running special software would be called miners and would form a network to maintain the block chain collectively. In the process, they would also generate new currency. Transactions would be broadcast to the network, and computers with the software would compete to solve irreversible cryptographic puzzles that contain data from several transactions. The first to solve each puzzle would be awarded 50 new bitcoins, and the associated block of transactions would be added to the chain. The difficulty of each puzzle would increase with the number of miners, keeping production to one block of transactions about every ten minutes. Also, the size of each block bounty would halve every 210,000 blocks -- first from 50 bitcoins to 25, then from 25 to 12.5 and so on. Around the year 2140, the currency would reach its pre-ordained limit of 21 million bitcoins.

When Nakamoto's paper came out in 2008, trust in the ability of governments and banks to manage the economy and the money supply was at its nadir. The US government was throwing dollars at Wall Street and the Detroit car companies. Many central banks in the west were introducing "quantitative easing", essentially printing money in order to stimulate the economy. The price of gold was rising. Bitcoin required no faith in the politicians or financiers who had wrecked the economy -- just in Nakamoto's elegant algorithms. Not only did bitcoin's public ledger seem to protect against fraud, but the predetermined release of the digital currency kept the bitcoin money supply growing at a predictable rate, immune to printing-press-happy central bankers and Weimar-style hyperinflation.

Nakamoto himself mined the first 50 bitcoins -- which came to be called the genesis block -- on January 3, 2009. For a year or so, his creation remained the province of a tiny group of early adopters. But slowly, word of bitcoin spread beyond the insular world of cryptography. It has won accolades from some of digital currency's greatest minds. Wei Dai, inventor of b-money, calls it "very significant"; Nick Szabo, who created bit gold, hails bitcoin as "a great contribution to the world"; and Hal Finney, the eminent cryptographer behind RPOW, says it's "potentially world-changing". The Electronic Frontier Foundation, an advocate for digital privacy, eventually started accepting donations in the alternative currency.

The small band of early bitcoiners all shared the communitarian spirit of an open-source-software project. Gavin Andresen, a coder in New England, bought 10,000 bitcoins for $50 (£32) and created a site called the Bitcoin Faucet, where he gave them away for the hell of it. Laszlo Hanyecz, a Florida programmer, conducted what bitcoiners think of as the first real-world bitcoin transaction, paying 10,000 bitcoins to get two pizzas delivered from Papa John's. (He sent the bitcoins to a volunteer in England, who then made a credit-card order transatlantically.) A farmer in Massachusetts named David Forster began accepting bitcoins as payment for alpaca socks.

The faithful tried to solve the mystery of the man they called simply Satoshi. On a bitcoin IRC channel, someone noted portentously that in Japanese Satoshi means "wise". Someone else wondered whether the name might be a sly portmanteau of four tech companies: SAmsung, TOSHIba, NAKAmichi and MOTOrola. It seemed doubtful that Nakamoto was even Japanese. His English had the flawless, idiomatic ring of a native speaker. Perhaps, it was suggested, Nakamoto wasn't one man but a mysterious group with an inscrutable purpose.

"I exchanged some emails with whoever Satoshi supposedly is," says Hanyecz, who was on bitcoin's core developer team for a time. "I'd get replies maybe every two weeks, as if someone would check it once in a while. But bitcoin seems awfully well designed for one person to crank out." Nakamoto revealed little about himself, limiting his online utterances to technical discussion of his source code. On December 5, 2010, after bitcoiners started to callfor WikiLeaks to accept bitcoin donations, the normally terse Nakamoto weighed in with uncharacteristic vehemence. "No, don't 'bring it on,'" he wrote in the bitcoin forum. "The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the way. I make this appeal to WikiLeaks not to try to use bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."

hen, as unexpectedly as he had appeared, Nakamoto vanished. At 6.22 pm GMT on December 12, seven days after his WikiLeaks plea, he posted his final message to the bitcoin forum. His email responses became erratic, then stopped. Andresen, who had taken over the role of lead developer, was now one of just a few people with whom he still communicated. On April 26, Andresen told fellow coders: "Satoshi did suggest this morning that I (we) should try to de-emphasise the whole 'mysterious founder' thing when talking publicly about bitcoin." Then Nakamoto stopped replying even to Andresen's emails. Bitcoiners wondered plaintively why he had left them. But by then his creation had taken on a life of its own.

more here guys:
http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/arch...all-of-bitcoin

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Important Update on Gold and Silver …

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 10:27 PM PST

Important Update on Gold and Silver …

Larry Edelson | December 19, 2011

Gold has plunged through many of the support levels I've previously provided you. It's dropped through the $1,730 level … the $1,610 level … and has thus far reached as low as $1,564.

Once it closes below $1,610 on a Friday, which it will likely have done before you even read this column — the stage will be set for gold to collapse to at least $1,435 and, very possibly, as low as the $1,100 mark.

And silver, precisely as I've been warning you, has started to crash again — losing more than $4 last week and shattering support at the $30 level … then the $29.16 level — and is now ready to make a beeline down to $25 and, very possibly, much lower to $22 to $23 an ounce.

As a result, suggestions I made previously to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) are now paying off very nicely. GLL has already soared as much as 29.8%. ZSL, as much as 37.8%.

I've taken a lot of flak over the last couple of months for being bearish on commodities, especially because of my forecast for much-lower prices for gold and silver. Some even treated me as if I were some kind of traitor.

But that's OK. I will never succumb to the crowd that believes markets can go up forever and that bull markets always have blue skies overhead. I've been around too long to fall into that trap, which causes nothing but blindness and losses.

And most importantly, I will never, ever tell you anything but what I believe … or what my indicators tell me. I can assure you that I'll never report on what anyone wants to hear.

There are way too many pundits in this business who tell you what you want to hear, all in the hope of keeping you as a customer or a subscriber. Not me. I refuse to do anything but report on what I see … and what I would do with my own money.

Are the Precious Metals
Really Losing Their Luster?

So why are gold and silver falling? Why could they fall much more? Why are they plunging in the face of a crisis as bad as Europe's?

This is where you need to separate fact from fiction, and use critical thinking skills to understand markets. And the truth is that most gold (and other metals) bugs don't have a clue when it comes to what really drives the precious metals.

They figure gold and silver are all about inflation. When inflation is escalating, gold and silver do well. Sounds good, right?

But nothing could be further from the truth! Inflation is a very minor force driving the prices of gold and silver. And at that, inflation isn't even a force. Rather, it's a symptom of a much-deeper issue, which is none other than what I call a "crisis in confidence." That's the true underlying force behind the precious metals' behavior.

Simply put, when confidence in government or in fiat currency is falling, precious metals do well regardless of whether inflation is at hand or not!

Once you understand that, then you have a better understanding on what really drives gold and silver.

But that's not nearly enough either. You have to delve deeper and determine where the crisis in confidence is manifesting itself.

Right now, the crisis in confidence is clearly in Europe. Though the United States certainly has many problems — many of them bigger than those affecting Europe — right now, it's all about Europe, and it's making the United States look like an island of safety.

Put another way, plunging confidence in Europe is bolstering the United States and, most importantly, the U.S. dollar. Since the euro is NOT the world's reserve currency, that means that the capital that's fleeing Europe right now is heading, guess where?

To the U.S. dollar, for safety and liquidity … which is, by default, bearish for the precious metals.

Should You Get Sold
On Selling Silver, Gold?

So you see, plunging gold and silver prices are not so hard to understand when you delve a little deeper and view the world in international terms and with no biases.

No biases about inflation, one currency or another, what markets can or cannot do. Just pure, simple, logical reasoning — unaffected by emotion. That's all it takes.

Don't get me wrong. There will come a time when a massive crisis in confidence hits the United States. The time is coming, and that is when you will see the next leg down in the U.S. dollar and the next big bull market in precious metals. But it is not here yet!

Which is precisely why I continue to recommend that all precious metals investors be very careful now. Gold and silver can fall much further than you think possible.

And odds are they will. Because their next bull market legs higher will likely not form until most gold and silver investors have thrown in the towel, and there are very few left to sell. That's when the precious metals will violently turn back to the upside, leaving most investors in the dust.

If you've acted on my suggestions to hedge your gold holdings, or take outright speculative positions in inverse ETFs like those mentioned earlier, hold those positions. There's a lot more downside potential in gold and silver right now.

Ditto for most commodities. As Europe continues to go down in flames, capital will pour out of Europe and into the U.S. dollar for cash and liquidity purposes … boosting the dollar higher, and forcing the prices of nearly all commodities lower.

My Real Wealth Report members have been way ahead of these moves, and I've had them hedge up their gold holdings and take some speculative short positions well ahead of time, and they're doing great.

My more-speculative service, Resource Windfall Trader, is doing fantastic. Every one of my closed trades over the last 12 consecutive months has seen an average 45% gain in market price. That includes all seven of my losing trades over the last year.

The average hold time for those trades is just 44 days — or about a month and a half. Some examples include big wins such as 233.3% gains on a bearish gold position … 118% and 354% on a bearish silver bet … and much more, including 101.85% gains on a bearish S&P 500 play.

You might want to consider cranking up your profit potential by becoming a member of my Resource Windfall Trader. You can do so now at a full 30% off the regular membership price by clicking here to read my special report.

Best wishes, as always …

Larry

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/i...437?FIELD9=321

Markets remain cautious about ECB move

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 10:15 PM PST

Gold and silver prices rallied during the early part of yesterday on news of a large uptake in three-year loans from the European Central Bank to Europe's embattled banks. Gold was trading above ...

Gold & Silver Market Morning, December 22, 2011

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 09:00 PM PST

Gold Climbing 'Wall of Worry' Just as it Did in the '70s: Pierre Lassonde

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 08:59 PM PST

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price was up about ten bucks during early Far East trading on Wednesday...and then didn't do much of anything until a smallish rally began around 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time, which is 2:00 a.m. on the east coast.

This rally lasted until the London a.m. gold fix at 10:30 a.m. GMT...and the moment that 'the fix was in' there were not-for-profit sellers there to smash the price down. By the time Comex trading opened in New York yesterday morning at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time, the powers-that-be had the gold price down five dollars from Tuesday's close. Every rally attempt after that, no matter how small, got sold off before it could develop into anything.

Gold closed the New York trading session at $1,615.00 spot...down just twenty cents from Tuesday's close. Volume was around 124,000 contracts.

It was almost an identical situation in the silver market...although the price didn't do much during Far East trading before its 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong rally began.

Once the London a.m. fix was in, the silver price suffered the same fate as gold, except that the silver price finished down 24 cents to $29.32 spot. Volume was around 26,000 contracts.

The dollar index declined about 55 basis points from the New York open on Tuesday night, with the low of the Wednesday trading session coming around 5:20 a.m. Eastern time...which, wonder of wonders, also coincided with the London morning gold fix at the precise same moment. Coincidence, you ask? No chance of that.

From that point, the dollar index blasted higher...and gained back 50 basis points of its earlier loss. The rally ended right at the open of Comex trading at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. Another coincidence? Not bloody likely.

From there the dollar index basically traded flat for the rest of the New York trading session. The gold price followed the dollar almost exactly yesterday, which I find suspicious in and of itself. However, it does explain the price moves in gold and silver...but not the size of the moves...which were out of all proportion to the associated dollar price action.

The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price during the New York trading session...and the HUI finished basically unchanged...down a microscopic 0.09%.

The silver stocks also finished down a bit on the day. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down a smallish 0.42%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that only 31 gold and 21 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

The GLD ETF showed a rather large withdrawal of 388,951 ounces...and there were no reported changes in SLV. Here's the link to that activity.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday.

On Tuesday, the Comex-approved depositories showed that 310,327 troy ounces of silver were added to their inventories...and 359,783 ounces were withdrawn.

Silver analyst Ted Butler had a few things to say about the raptors...the smaller commercial traders other than the 'Big 8'. As of the last Commitment of Traders Report there were between 25 and 30 of them.

"The raptors may continue to rig the silver market short term, but it is important to recognize that they don't sell on the way down, only on the way up. That means the raptors are likely to rig prices lower only when they can buy more, with the intent of selling out at higher prices to make a profit. When there is no more of an opportunity for the raptors and JPMorgan to buy to the downside, both will stop trying to rig prices lower. What determines when there is no more to buy is whether there are any more speculative longs to scare out of the market, or other speculative short sellers which can be tricked into selling short. There's no way to precisely measure that beforehand, but when we get into historical extremes in the COT, with both the raptors big net long and JPMorgan small net short, with the speculative long position also low, then we are usually close. That's where we are right now, with Friday's COT likely to confirm."

"I've never seen the raptors panic and sell out at a loss at lower prices, only at a profit to the upside. They did panic a bit near the top in April when they bought, as did JPMorgan, but conditions are the opposite of that currently. The only question is where the raptors will sell on a silver price rally. Will they be content to book a profit of a few dollars an ounce or will they hold out for more? I don't know, but future COT reports will tell us. I can tell you that the stage is possibly set for a real conflagration to the upside if JPMorgan tries to buy aggressively from the raptors and/or the raptors decide to hold out for really high prices. It wouldn't take much in the current illiquid trading conditions to ignite an upside price event."

I have a lot of stories today, so I hope you at least have the time to skim the few paragraphs that I've cut and paste from each one,

The brief flurry of price excitement in both gold and silver at the London a.m. gold fix on Wednesday morning certainly wasn't allowed to last long.

London trader explains desperate twists in metal price suppression. Lawrence Williams: Gold the protector as democracies move toward totalitarianism. Ron Paul's stock portfolio.

¤ Critical Reads

US Housing Market Was Artificially Inflated By 14% In 2007-2010 NAR Reports

Thank you NAR for proving what everyone knew: that the US housing market is one big lie. Odd: no mention of the primary reason for the "re-benchmarking", namely that the NAR is nothing but an advertising front for the US housing industry.

This is a short read with three most excellent charts. It's definitely worth reading...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending me this zerohedge.com piece. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

The Financial Crisis on Trial: The SEC fingers the government-backed mortgage buyers

The Securities and Exchange Commission's lawsuits against six top executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, announced last week, are a seminal event.

For the first time in a government report, the complaint has made it clear that the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) played a major role in creating the demand for low-quality mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis. More importantly, the SEC is saying that Fannie and Freddie—the largest buyers and securitizers of subprime and other low-quality mortgages—hid the size of their purchases from the market. Through these alleged acts of securities fraud, they did not just mislead investors; they deprived analysts, risk managers, rating agencies and even financial regulators of vital data about market risks that could have prevented the crisis.

This story was posted in yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

European Bank in Strong Move to Loosen Credit

After long resisting the kind of financial force Washington used at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, European central bankers on Wednesday pumped nearly $640 billion into the Continent's banking system. The move raised hopes that the money could alleviate the region's credit squeeze.

American officials and global economists have long urged the Europe's central bank to take just such an aggressive stance — even as European political leaders have repeatedly failed to devise concrete near-term plans to address Europe's debt problems and deteriorating finances.

Some analysts suggest the central bank's new lending program represents a kind of back door to the easy-money policy pursued by the Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, which is widely credited with averting a broader economic disaster.

This story was posted in The New York Times early yesterday morning...and is another Phil Barlett offering. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

Herr Draghi or Signor Draghi, and the ECB's Santa Rally

The ECB's back-door bail-out for Italy, Spain, Belgium, and… France? …is €489bn.

Roughly €300bn of today's eagerly awaited LTRO tender is recycled old money from earlier support operations. The new money is €200bn. This alone is not going to shore up the sovereign states of southern Europe as they grind deeper into recession/depression.

Enjoy Mario Draghi's Santa Rally while it lasts. The euphoria is likely to dissipate once markets remember the sheer scale of the task at hand.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted in The Telegraph...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. It's worth reading...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

ECB's €489bn loan to eurozone banks fails to calm markets

Banks gorged on €489.19bn of cheap loans offered by the European Central Bank (ECB) - but the gargantuan refinancing effort still failed to decisively address the raging debt crisis.

A total of 523 banks scrambled to take up the ECB's offer to exchange illiquid assets for cut-price funding in the first of two three-year refinancing operations. The record half-trillion euro take-up – which was far greater than the market had expected – initially triggered a "sugar rush" of euphoria as the move was hailed as a decisive "game changer". But stock markets fell as economists and financiers recognised that while the imminent danger of another credit crunch had been averted, the threat of sovereign defaults had not.

More proof that the current economic, financial and monetary system is a dead man walking...regardless of where on Planet Earth you are. This story was posted in The Telegraph last night...and is another Roy Stephens offering. It's a must read...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Massive Lending Operation: ECB's Risky Plan to Flood Banks with Cash

The European Central Bank has launched the biggest lending operation in its history, and banks pounced on the offer on Wednesday, borrowing almost a half-billion euros for three years at a low interest rate. Governments hope the banks will use the cash to buy sovereign bonds, but critics warn the ECB's strategy is risky and could stoke inflation.

It will be a tough year for banks. In 2012 overall they will have to pay back €725 billion ($953 billion) in debt, of which €280 billion will fall due in the first quarter alone. They will have to borrow fresh money to service this debt, but it's almost impossible for them to raise that money in the private market. Most of them have large holdings of European government bonds on their balance sheets, so they don't have the mutual trust necessary to lend each other large sums of money.

"The interbank market is pretty shut," said Dieter Hein, a finance expert at Fairesearch, an independent research company for institutional investors, banks and brokers. "Virtually no one outside is lending any money to euro-zone banks any more."

This story gives the perspective on the ECB's massive lending program from Berlin's point of view. For that reason alone it's a must read as well. It's another Roy Stephens offering that was posted over at spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Gold bottoming around $1,600...$2,100 likely early in 2012, Hinde report says

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 08:59 PM PST

Gold bottoming around $1,600...$2,100 likely early in 2012, Hinde report says

Hinde Capital's new report on the gold market surveys a number of indicators and concludes that gold is bottoming at around $1,600 and that a price of $2,100 is likely early in 2012.

This 6-page report is posted on the hindecapital.com website...and the link is here.

Save Your ASSets First

Thursday, December 22, 2011