Gold World News Flash |
- There are more reasons to be in Gold than ever
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall About 1%
- Gerald Celente: Money Junkies and The Coming "Bank Holiday"
- Finding Hope in a World of Perpetual War
- U.S. Dollar Replaced by China, Japan –Gold Positive!
- Long Term Gold Chart Views
- “Ranting Andy” and the Road to Roota
- Nation Urged To Increase Holdings Of Gold
- The Obama Nation: Even More Debt And Even More Store Closings
- Peter Schiff: 2012 Will Be the Year of Reckoning
- Japan In Serious Debt Problems / Sears / LTRO Euros Heading Straight Back To ECB / Gold And Silver Raid
- Euro-zone Credit Implosion Secret, ECB Cannot Stop Collateral Contagion Collapse
- Gerald Celente: Money Junkies and The Coming “Bank Holiday”
- Peter Schiff - 2012 Will Be the Year of Reckoning
- Devil Deals
- Gold Price Fell Below $1,600, Expect a Move Higher Before the Week Ends
- Equities Unch As Financials Lag
- Bonds About To Plunge? Implications For Stocks and PM's
- End of the Road
- Euro Trades at Almost 11-Month Low Amid Debt-Crisis Concern
- Why ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion
- Can Gold ETF's Push to a New Record High in 2012?
- Twisted Tuesday - Treasuries are not an Option
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex, What Is It Good For?
- One Less Sure Thing
- In The News Today
- Jim's Mailbox
- Guest Post: A Run On The Global Banking System - How Close Are We?
- Pento - Here is Why Gold Price Will Stay Strong & Not Retreat
- How The Bankers Drive Up Bullion Prices, Part II
There are more reasons to be in Gold than ever Posted: 27 Dec 2011 04:45 PM PST | ||
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall About 1% Posted: 27 Dec 2011 04:30 PM PST | ||
Gerald Celente: Money Junkies and The Coming "Bank Holiday" Posted: 27 Dec 2011 03:39 PM PST On the Tuesday edition of the Alex Jones Show, Alex talks with noted trends forecaster Gerald Celente on the latest concerning the MF Global heist. Celente also covers the top 12 trends of 2012. Celente is on the record for accurately forecasting and naming the current "Great Recession" and for forecasting the 1987 Stock Market Crash, the Dot-com bust, Gold Bull Run to Begin, 2001 Recession, the Real Estate bubble, the "Panic of '08", Tax Revolts, and the coming "Greatest Depression." He is the publisher of the Trends Journal. Read more..... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
Finding Hope in a World of Perpetual War Posted: 27 Dec 2011 02:59 PM PST Because I'm free Nothing's worrying me. from "Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head" by Hal David and Burt Bacharach It takes time to steal a wise man's freedom. He can't be talked out of it. But he can be made to give it up for something higher. What's higher? Why, his country, of course. What is his country? He doesn't know exactly. Whatever it means it can't omit the government. The government, he learns in government schools, is a vital part of the better things in life. It started long ago, well before even the oldest among us were alive. Ruthless exploiters had taken over the economy. What was needed was regulation, we were told. Not market regulation - not the profit and loss kind, which only fed the cutthroats of the world - but government regulation, the kind that uses government ways. Free markets, we were assured, meant scoundrels were free to chew up innocents. With government regulations and the institutions they created we would have nirvana. The bad boys would be put in their place. The little guys would be the economy's poster boys. But there was more to it than this. The regulations would come within the framework of a new ideology. The bad boys wouldn't want to be bad anymore. They would shed their shell of arrogant individualism for the enlightened beauty of selfless service. They would repudiate their exploitative ways. They would seek to cooperate. With whom? With the regulatory agencies. The big tycoons and their friends in government would partner to serve the little people. Partners in war What better example of this new partnership than the combined efforts of government and business leaders in getting the country into the 20th century's two world wars. The little people were served by the honor of being conscripted into the military and sent overseas to kill as many of our enemies as possible - the enemies on the battlefields and on the seas, who were also conscripted and ordered to kill by their governments. And when the enemy finally surrendered most of the little guys came home. Many died, but Americans are told they perished for a value higher than themselves, their country, whatever that is exactly. As for the big tycoons, they joined with important officials and ran the war economy by fiat - cheap credit, higher taxes, pro-war cheerleading, and ruthless suppression of anti-war sentiment. As fate would have it, some of the businesses made record high profits. Freedom was outlawed to a great extent but only because of the wars. Freedom cannot be tolerated during war, especially wars that could easily have been avoided. But when the wars ended the little people got most of their freedom back. As long as people have freedom, they can push back when pushed and know that the law will stand by them. Except, as noted, during war. They can start a business, pursue a career, move wherever they want, buy and sell, get married, raise a family, travel - all without getting permission from the government. They can do anything except violate another person's freedom. With the exception being war. And that's precisely the problem. Perpetual war for perpetual control War in the 21st century has achieved a unique status. War now is war without end. Bringing the troops home from Iraq did not end the war on terror. The war on terror is a war on a concept. You cannot negotiate for peace with a concept. If you believe terror is your enemy, your enemies could be anywhere - the North Pole, a soccer game in Africa, or Dr. Seuss Day at your local elementary school. What is terror? Whatever the U.S. government declares it to be. Disagree and you could end up in a FEMA camp. Or dead. Who is to be the judge of whether one is committing an act of terror? The commander-in-chief. We are at war. The commander-in-chief runs the show in wartime. There are three possible ways the war on terror can be stopped. Perhaps the most obvious - and too nuts to consider seriously - is for U.S. agents to kill so many people it would shake the pillars on which government rests. Since government by nature is a parasite, destroying its host - humanity's net producers - would kill the parasite and end the war. There would be no one to produce and thus no one to tax, either directly or through monetary debauchery. Another way is by decree - a president such as Ron Paul says, "Game over." An announcement such as that could be the equivalent of JFK announcing his intention to bring all U.S. troops home from Vietnam by the end of 1965 - with the same results. I trust Dr. Paul is fully aware of the risks and would manage them accordingly. Finally, the third way is through bankruptcy. A government that can't pay its bills cannot prosecute a war. Led by the Federal Reserve, the western world's central banks are bringing down their governments by doing what governments so desperately want: loaning them more money. Money in this sense is the thin-air variety, the kind that confiscates wealth. Paper money will keep the charade going until the currency becomes so worthless no one uses it, not even the governments' enforcers. With the currency destroyed the wars will stop, at least temporarily. At that point it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. The Keynesians could be in ascendance and force a new paper regime on us, or we could at last achieve monetary freedom and bring government under our control. Ron Paul's election would amount to a second American Revolution. Even with powerful forces opposing him he could, in time and with the aid of an uncompromising constituency, kill the Fed, kill the income tax, stop the wars, bring the troops home, and put government back in its cage. If this sounds impossible consider that it was once normal - a benevolent, prosperous normal. There would be pain but it would be the pain of a doctor administering a needed medicine to treat a deadly disease. The goal would be the restoration of health, rather than the perpetuation of government destruction. Conclusion Our greatest hope lies in the election of Ron Paul. If the establishment somehow keeps him out of the White House, we would have to wait for government to default on its debts and fight for freedom under those conditions. My latest book, The Jolly Roger Dollar: An Introduction to Monetary Piracy, is available in Kindle format on Amazon. | ||
U.S. Dollar Replaced by China, Japan –Gold Positive! Posted: 27 Dec 2011 01:00 PM PST Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said over the holiday weekend. Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of Yuan that leaves China to Japan to remain in China, the Japanese government said. Encouraging direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs. | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 12:51 PM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Unless we get some sort of unexpected fundamental news such as an eruption of tensions in the Straits of Hormuz or some sort of economic news pertaining to sovereign debt-related downgrades, etc., gold looks to go out rather quietly for the year. Trading conditions are EXTREMELY THIN and volume is practically non-existent signifying the lack of interest on the part of the speculative community to take on any positions of size before the year's end in gold, or for that matter, much of anything at this point. Traders seem mostly content to ride what they have into the New Year and reassess things when the full contingent of traders will be back at the start of the New Year. This trader is doing the exact same thing. Quite frankly, these last few months have been so extremely volatile that any sort of break from the incessant up and down, up and down, up and down, is most welcome. Why bother subje... | ||
“Ranting Andy” and the Road to Roota Posted: 27 Dec 2011 11:52 AM PST [Ed Note: This e-blast just went out from Bix Weir of Roadtoroota.com. Our thanks to Bix for helping to bring attention to our must-listen interview with Andy Hoffman. Bix writes:] by Bix Weir, Road to Roota.com: Our friend Sean over at SGTreport.com conducted an excellent interview with 'Ranting' Andy Hoffman (listen HERE) that gives you a great idea of how far we've come down the Road to Roota. "Ranting Andy" has been a fixture over the last couple years at GATA and Bill Murphy's LetmetropoleCafe.com and I think he has really developed a good grasp of the situation. As a matter of fact, this is the first gold/silver manipulation interview that I have listened to where most of his answers are directly in line with the Road to Roota Theory. Oh how far we've come! The only things I would challenge are : 1) I do believe that Ron Paul will be our next President as he is being positioned by the "Good Guys" in order to assist in the transition after the Global Monetary Crash. (Keep a lookout for the Sarah Palin endorsement of Ron at just the right time to help gain the support of "Middle America".) 2) Although I agree that the CFTC is not going to implement the position limits rule BEFORE the crash (because it would cause it), I also believe that they WILL implement the rule AFTER THE CRASH in an attempt to restart the old system. (Although I don't think it will work for long.) The Road to Roota Theory is not what you will hear in mainstream gold and silver commentary but day after day, month after month my theory is being validated. The big difference between my theory and others is that I have shown that it is all being done on purpose and I have run the scenarios to their end game…the RETURN of a real Gold/Silver Standard in the United States! Read and re-read my January 2007 article, The Original Road to Roota, HERE. Bravo to Andy and Sean for seeing through the FOG and exposing the TRUTH! | ||
Nation Urged To Increase Holdings Of Gold Posted: 27 Dec 2011 11:51 AM PST from ChinaDaily.com.cn:
"The Chinese government should not only be cautious of the imported risk caused by rising global inflation, but also further optimize its foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation," said Zhang Jianhua, director of the research bureau affiliated with the People's Bank of China (PBOC). He made the remarks in an article in the Beijing-based Financial News, a newspaper run by the PBOC. The spot gold price declined 16 percent over the past three months to less than $1,600 an ounce last week. It touched a record of more than $1,900 in early September. | ||
The Obama Nation: Even More Debt And Even More Store Closings Posted: 27 Dec 2011 11:50 AM PST from The Economic Collapse Blog: Well, it is time to raise the debt ceiling again. Right now we are about to hit the current limit of $15.194 trillion and the Obama administration is going to ask that it be raised by another 1.2 trillion dollars. Unfortunately, Congress has already promised not to stand in the way, and so soon the debt limit will be raised to a staggering $16.394 trillion. Considering how much debt we have already placed on the backs of future generations, what is another 1.2 trillion dollars? After all, if we are going to sell our children and our grandchildren into debt slavery, we might as well go all the way, right? Such is the thinking in "the Obama Nation". During "the Obama Nation", the federal government has already accumulated more debt than it did from the time that George Washington took office to the time that Bill Clinton took office. Of course the Bush administration was nearly as bad at piling up government debt. Between Bush and Obama (with a big helping hand from the Federal Reserve), they have done a pretty good job of wiping out the financial future of the United States. If there are future generations of Americans, they will look back and curse those that did this to them. It is absolutely immoral to steal trillions of dollars from future generations. Unfortunately, there are very, very few members of Congress that are even objecting to this madness. Today, more debt just seems to be the answer to everything. The truth is that debt is not just a government problem. We are a nation that is addicted to debt. | ||
Peter Schiff: 2012 Will Be the Year of Reckoning Posted: 27 Dec 2011 11:44 AM PST from King World News:
Peter Schiff continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 10:59 AM PST by Harvey Organ: Gold closed today at $1594.20 down $10.00 on the day. Silver followed suit down 35 cents to $28.70 Since the MF GLobal scandal the bankers are having full control over the futures on gold/silver as volumes completely dry up. It is very strange that again for the second straight session there have been no updates on inventory movements. The last reporting session was 22nd of December. I checked the CME bulletin and still no updates. This is most unusual. I get the data from the Nymex daily reports under the section of warehouse and depository stocks. The copper inventories were updated today. In the body of the commentary we will witness that most of the LTRO euros are heading straight back to the ECB which probably indicates that one or two European banks are in trouble. Let us head straight to the comex and see how trading fared today: The total gold comex OI fell by 2217 contracts to 422,747. We are seeing more evidence every day of OI and volumes drying up. The front delivery month of December saw its OI fall 599 contracts to 138 from 737. We had 577 deliveries on Friday so we lost 22 contracts or 2200 oz of gold standing and that may be have through cash settlements or an error in Friday reporting. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI fell by around 1000 contracts to 244,098. The estimated volume today was an unheard of 46,261 even though it is still the holiday season. The confirmed volume on Friday came it at 47,497. | ||
Euro-zone Credit Implosion Secret, ECB Cannot Stop Collateral Contagion Collapse Posted: 27 Dec 2011 10:34 AM PST by Gordon T Long, MarketOracle.co.uk: How long can the European media keep the EU credit implosion a secret? The disgraced former IMF Director, Demonic Strauss Kahn said on Tuesday December 12th, 2011 that No 'Firewall' Exists and Europe Has 'Only Weeks'. Of course within minutes of this Financial Times news release which detailed his vent on EU leadership and the perilous situation in Europe, the article disappeared. The details of the European liquidity crisis are generally reported, but for some reason no media source wants to pull the pieces together so everyone can see the magnitude and futility of the crisis. A growing Collateral Contagion is being shrouded in the apparent belief that the solution to the European Financial and Banking crisis is a grand change in Treaty governance. Obviously the European Central Bank (ECB) was well aware of the reality, when it was forced to deploy a historic and unprecedented LTRO (Long Term Purchase Operations) on Wednesday December 21, 2011. 560 banks desperately and immediately grabbed what they could, to the tune of €489B. | ||
Gerald Celente: Money Junkies and The Coming “Bank Holiday” Posted: 27 Dec 2011 10:07 AM PST On the Tuesday edition of the Alex Jones Show, Alex talks with noted trends forecaster Gerald Celente on the latest concerning the MF Global heist. Celente also covers the top 12 trends of 2012. Celente is on the record for accurately forecasting and naming the current "Great Recession" and for forecasting the 1987 Stock Market Crash, the Dot-com bust, Gold Bull Run to Begin, 2001 Recession, the Real Estate bubble, the "Panic of '08″, Tax Revolts, and the coming "Greatest Depression." He is the publisher of the Trends Journal.
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Peter Schiff - 2012 Will Be the Year of Reckoning Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:58 AM PST ![]() This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:50 AM PST Bill Bonner View the original article. December 27, 2011 10:33 AM Occasionally, when we've had too much to drink, we lull ourselves to sleep with the notion that someone like Ron Paul might succeed. Maybe America won't become a police state after all. Maybe it will abandon its empire and its imperial death-wish before it's too late. Maybe it will cut its budget and save the dollar. Maybe the zombies can be brought under control before the nation is ruined by them… Then, we sober up. And make sure our passport is up to date. You've seen our theories… The insiders who run the government will take as much as they can get away with. Gradually, more and more people become insiders. And gradually fewer and fewer people are still adding real value to the economy. The zombies multiply. They vote. The system is "locked in" to disaster. Eventually, war…revolution…or a bankruptcy stop them. The old systems blow up. The incompetent, the corrupt and the zombified ar... | ||
Gold Price Fell Below $1,600, Expect a Move Higher Before the Week Ends Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:30 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1594.20 Change : (10.50) or -0.7% Silver Price Close Today : 2869.70 Change : 34.90 cents or -1.2% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.553 Change : 0.306 or 0.6% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01800 Change : -0.000100 or -0.6% Platinum Price Close Today : 1437.10 Change : 5.10 or 0.4% Palladium Price Close Today : 663.50 Change : 38.05 or 6.1% S&P 500 : 1,265.43 Change : 0.01 or 0.0% Dow In GOLD$ : $159.38 Change : $ 1.03 or 0.6% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.710 Change : 0.050 or 0.6% Dow in SILVER oz : 428.31 Change : 5.06 or 1.2% Dow Industrial : 12,291.35 Change : -2.65 or 0.0% US Dollar Index : 79.80 Change : -0.440 or -0.5% Interpreting the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE moves here lately is a work in progress. The GOLD PRICE gave back much of last week's gains by falling below $1,600 again. Lost $10.50 today to $1,594.20. Before you roll up your shirtsleeve and look for a razor blade, hang on. Last week gold punched through its 200 day moving average (now $1,621.83). It bounced off that, a wholly normal move. Let's guess it might even touch $1,570, then turn around and head for $1,680. Unless it closes below $1,562.50, that's what I expect, a move higher before the week ends. The SILVER PRICE stands nearly on top of its uptrend line connecting the end-September and December lows. It's time to fish or cut bait. Should silver fall below 2800c, it will signal further falls coming, at least to 2600c. Today on Comex silver fell 34.9c to 2869.7. As it now stands, though, I expect silver to turn around from here and rise again. It's a roll of the dice, however. I drove down nearly to Birmingham today to swap four shoats for two Great Pyrenees pups, and it was COLD. I think I got the better part of that bargain, but then again, you can't eat dogs. Leastways, better not in Tennessee. Most people will shoot you if you eat their dog, hot dogs excepted. For all the crowing about stocks ending the year in "positive territory," 'tain't much to brag about. Dow closed 2010 at 11,573.42, so today's price brings it up by a not-very-remarkable 6.2% -- not since it has had almost 365 days to do something. S&P500 is up by only 0.63% (yes, the decimal point IS in the right spot). Now why do you reckon that the broader measure of the stock market, the S&P500, would have risen a slight less-than-two-thirds-of-one-percent while the Dow with only 30 stocks rose 6.2%? As Yogurt said in the movie, Space Balls, "Moichendizing!" My guess is the Nice Government Men wanted the widely-watched Dow to look good for the year, but what do I know? Nothing. I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee. Today the Dow dropped 2.65 (0.02%) to 12,291.35. I have repeatedly said I didn't expect the Dow to beat 12,200 -- so call it 12,300. It's all the same resistance level. S&P500 closed 1,265.43, up -- get this -- 0.1. Big day on the trading floor. Here's a little ditty for 2012: Eschew stocks In 2012 Or buy a shovel And learn to delve. Scrofulous US dollar index dropped 0.06% today, 44 basis points, to land at 79.796. Looks like NGM trying to square their books at year end with last year's 79.173 close. Makes no never mind. Dollar remains above the sharply rising uptrend line that began off the late October bottom. Unless it closes below 79.25, buck remains in an uptrend. Scurvy euro profited from the dollar's stumble to rise 0.15% to 1.3068. It headeth still for 1.2000. Scruffy yen gained 0.32% today, hopping off its bottom support line to perch on the 20 DMA. Look at the chart. It's being managed. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||
Equities Unch As Financials Lag Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:27 AM PST Given the low volume day, it is hardly surprising that markets had some unusual actions today but the consistency with which financials lagged on the day, combined with the selling pressure we saw in HYG (which has increasingly seemed to dominate credit markets recently) offers little to 'buy into' from today. ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) oscillated up and back to VWAP all day long in a very narrow range as risk assets rose modestly (helped by the seemingly Iran-driven surge in Oil more than any other). FX carry did little, TSYs rallied (and 2s10s30s dropped) modestly, as Gold dropped on the day but credit (based on the IG and HY credit indices) outperformed equities by a little (more end of day liquidity than risk appetite) as the anchor of BofA (-2.5%) and MS (-2.9%) dragged financial stocks (-0.6%) to close at their lows of the day and seemed the most important factor of the day (even as corp bonds - as thinly traded as they were, saw net buying). Financials (in red) handily underperformed all other sectors with a late-day selling wave seeing volume pick up significantly (and after-hours selling was continuing). VIX jumped back above 22% and stabilized just under 22% as the vol steepeners we discussed last week (seasonals) start to get unwound. HYG opened gap down after outperforming into the close on Christmas Eve as US credit markets closed early. Volumes were not as low as the broad market in the high-yield bond ETF and as is so usual recently, the moment we see HYG start to crack, a miraculous bid reappears (as is clear above) but we do note that the gap was not filled and HYG closed down even as ES was practically unch and IG and HY modestly better. A better sense of the relative performance of assets (SPY-HYG-VXX-TLT), the SPY Arb model (above) shows the relative underperformance of the non-equity (in this case dominated by HYG) green-line portion and the afternoon convergence of this ETF-executable arb. SPY traded (much like ES) close to VWAP (suggesting machines set at low volume mode were providing the liquidity today). All-in-all, an odd day that saw metals crumbling until Europe closed (collateral/liquidation needs?) and then stabilizing in the US afternoon as financials lost significant ground into the close. | ||
Bonds About To Plunge? Implications For Stocks and PM's Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:06 AM PST Are Bonds about to plunge? And if so (or if not), what are the implications for stocks and precious metals? Let's have a look at TLT, which is the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund. Back in 2008, at the climax of the financial crisis, TLT was very stretched above the 200MA, and the RSI was very oversold on a weekly basis.
When we look at TLT until 2010, we can see that price retraced exactly back to the 50% Fibonacci Level, where it found strong support.
If bonds would top here, that would likely be caused by investors rushing out of this (perceived) risk-free asset class, and into more risky assets like stocks. That would probably involve a more sustainable (or at least more sustainable as perceived by the market participants) way out of this Euro Crisis, which has been making headlines in recent months, causing investors to rush out of risky assets and into bonds. We can see from the Commitment Of Traders (COT) reports that Commercials (usually seen as the "Smart Money") have taken on HUGE long positions in the EURO, while Speculators (usually seen as the "Dumb Money") have taken on HUGE Short positions: However, Commercials have deep pockets and can stand the dips (which they usually keep buying)… If bonds haven't topped yet, we can expect a potential top around 132 for TLT, based on Fibonacci Retracement levels.
A continued rise of Bonds would probably mean more worries about the Euro Crisis.
However, on a short term daily basis, the Euro shows (weak) signs of Positive Divergence. If the MACD would fall below the low of last week, this would probably lead to a further decline in the EURO, meaning we should keep an eye on the Head & Shoulders pattern…
I keep finding it fascinating to look at the similarities between now and 2008, as the SP500 still hasn't broken that 200MA and heavy resistance at 1265-1280… Once it does, I think we would see new highs pretty soon. If it doesn't, look out below…
Last but not least, let's think about what will happen to Precious Metals if Bonds top here. We can look at it in 2 ways: * A top in bonds probably means investors become less risk-averse, meaning Gold could also sell-off (as it is often perceived as a hedge against turmoil) Let's have a look at the TLT:GLD chart, which divides the price of TLT by the price of GLD. When we have a closer look, we can notice 5 times where the ratio showed signs of Negative Divergence.
Based on Sentiment in Gold (but especially Silver) and the recent decline, I would assume this time Gold is seen as a "risky" asset, and should thus profit from a top in TLT/Bonds, although the risk of further declines still exists. For more analyses and Trading Updates, please visit www.profitimes.com! | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 09:00 AM PST Before stumbling upon the trailer, I hadn't heard anything about the upcoming documentary End of the Road by Tim Delmastro, but, it appears to have real potential, what with the growing realization that all the bailout efforts from a few years ago simply kicked the can down the road and that, someday, that road will come to an end. The film is basically a compilation of interviews with eleven individuals, most of the names being familiar to readers of this blog including G Edward Griffin , Jim Puplava, James Turk, Jim Rickards, Peter Schiff, Eric Sprott, and Bill Murphy. My guess is that the Federal Reserve, fiat money, and gold come up quite frequently. | ||
Euro Trades at Almost 11-Month Low Amid Debt-Crisis Concern Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:53 AM PST Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) — The euro traded at almost its lowest level since January against the dollar as concern lingered that Europe's debt crisis will slow regional economic growth. "The European peripheral bond markets are still looking quite fragile and we'll be watching that," said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group of 10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. "People are going to be quite cautious in terms of trading events. It's going to be a quiet week." Ten-year bond yields in Italy advanced six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7.04 percent, above the 7 percent level that spurred Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts. "The major theme going into 2012 is going to be the euro zone still," said Mark McCormick, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. "There's going to be some large bond supplies coming from some of the periphery countries, Italy and Spain in particular, and that's going to be the focus." | ||
Why ECB's LTRO Won't Stop Collateral Contagion Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:47 AM PST Via Gordon T Long of GordonTLong.com, How long can the European media keep the EU credit implosion a secret? The disgraced former IMF Director, Demonic Strauss Kahn said on Tuesday December 12th, 2011 that No 'Firewall' Exists and Europe Has 'Only Weeks'. Of course within minutes of this Financial Times news release which detailed his vent on EU leadership and the perilous situation in Europe, the article disappeared. The details of the European liquidity crisis are generally reported, but for some reason no media source wants to pull the pieces together so everyone can see the magnitude and futility of the crisis. A growing Collateral Contagion is being shrouded in the apparent belief that the solution to the European Financial and Banking crisis is a grand change in Treaty governance. Obviously the European Central Bank (ECB) was well aware of the reality, when it was forced to deploy a historic and unprecedented LTRO (Long Term Purchase Operations) on Wednesday December 21, 2011. 560 banks desperately and immediately grabbed what they could, to the tune of €489B. The LTRO bought the EU private banks some time. It did nothing to solve the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis. After less than one week, the cash held at the ECB surged €133B to a new record €347B. Since the net LTRO was only €210B, it tells you that the EU banks not only have a cash problem, but more specifically, as ECB President Mario Draghi says : "hoarding at the ECB signals that the problem afflicting the Eurozone is not so much about the amount of liquidity but that this liquidity is not circulating around the region's banks". I would argue that the problem short term is a shortage of real collateral and that US dollar cash, versus 'encumbered' cash flow, is now king. It is clear that the rampant advancing Collateral Contagion will quickly eat this futile attempt like ravenous wolves. A well circulated Tweet from PIMCO bond king Bill Gross said it all: " What does LTRO stand for? 1- A shell game; 2-Cash for trash; 3 Three-card Monti; or 4. All of the above." Here is the stark reality of what forced the ECB to offer unprecedented three year loans at absurd rates and most alarmingly, the acceptance of collateral that no other financial institutions will accept. The ECB has sacrificed its balance sheet in yet another EU "kick at the can".
The list is even longer, but it will need to suffice for this shorter article. The above issues suggest, minimally, an immediate €4-8 Trillion EU problem. The EU has no ability to solve this problem short of simply printing Euros, which unlike the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, the ECB presently (I stress presently) refuses to do. Let's briefly discuss a few of these so we can appreciate the seriousness of the EU problem and what lays behind a first half 2011 surge of $107 TRILLION in derivative SWAPS.
The rest of the interesting and unusually complete article can be found here: | ||
Can Gold ETF's Push to a New Record High in 2012? Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:46 AM PST 12/27 (ETF Trends ) This is very healthy for further gains in 2012, especially if we hold above $1,500. We could see the market trade in a range through mid summer," John Person, president of NationalFutures, said in the article. Person predicts gold to peak between $2,200-$2,400 by late October 2012. Over the long-term, gold bulls point to the loose monetary policies of the Federal Resrve and European Central Bank that will eventually debase their currencies and contribute to the attractiveness of gold. "$2,000 gold can be delayed in the short term, but the fundamentals will carry it there sooner or later," Mladjenovic added. "2012 has very bullish conditions so higher gold prices are more plausible." | ||
Twisted Tuesday - Treasuries are not an Option Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:08 AM PST Twisted Tuesday - Treasuries are not an Option
Remember Operation Twist? Last week, Freddie Mac reported record lows on rates, with the 30-year notes at 3.91%. This has not, of course, encouraged many people to go out and buy homes but it has DISCOURAGED people from putting their money into bonds and ENCOURAGED them to put their money into stocks. There is, however, a problem with this. When people put money into Treasuries, it is "locked up" for a period of time but stocks are more liquid so, as soon as rates begin going up (and they will when the panic in Europe subsides despite the Fed's efforts), then money can come out of stocks as quickly as it went in and move into 5% paper. See, I said 5% paper and you were thinking "Yeah, I'd like some of that." So are Trillions of Dollars worth of other investors and that means, sorry to tell you, that this little Federally-funded rally is full of holes you can drive a truck through. The Fed's stimulus plan is the central bank's third definitive attempt to aid the U.S.'s patchy economy since 2008. As expectations grew that the Fed would act in the weeks leading up to the bank's actual announcement, which came Sept. 21, 10-year yields dropped nearly 0.30 percentage point. Since the Fed's official statement, yields have already risen modestly, to 2.026% on Friday, from 1.95% on Sept. 20. The program's final debt purchase of the year was Thursday, when the Fed bought $4.6 billion in long-dated securities. The final sale Wednesday targets $8 billion to $8.75 billion worth of notes due in 2014. It will be a holiday-shortened week: The bond market was shut Monday and will close early, at 2 p.m., on Friday. The problem is some corners of the market think the Fed's tools are losing their punch. The financial system is already flush with money from the bank's previous easing programs, and analysts argue that the Fed's extra money is increasingly less useful. Borrowing costs, for instance, are at all-time lows and yet many investors aren't taking advantage. If Operation Twist isn't enough to get us through 2012 - what's going to be left in the Fed's tool belt once the Global panic into Dollars begins to subside? You can see, on the above chart, where the Fed announced Operation Twist in September as it allowed the oil crooks to borrow cheaply and jam prices back from $80 to $100 (25%) and that took money OUT of consumers' pockets into Q4 but at least they were able to increase their debt load as borrowing costs came down so it all works out - for the oil companies... Banks in Europe paid attention to my cash call this weekend and parked a record $540Bn in the ECB's overnight deposit facility, up from $500Bn the day before. The previous record overnight deposits were $501Bn, at the onset of the Greek crisis in June of 2010 so - DESPITE all the nonsense to calm the markets - the European banks are as panicked now as they have ever been and the inter-bank lending system (LIBOR) is less liquid now than it was in the crash of 2008. The ECB's so-called benchmark allotment pointed to a major liquidity overhang in the euro zone's financial system Tuesday. Benchmark allotment, which is the ECB's estimate of the liquidity banks need to conduct routine operations, was minus €493 billion. The negative allotment figure indicates the presence of excess liquidity in the financial system. The ECB further said banks borrowed €6.13 billion from the ECB's overnight lending facility, compared with €6.34 billion borrowed Thursday. When markets are functioning properly, banks only use the facility to the tune of a few hundred million euros overnight.
I'm still gathering my evidence so I don't want to jump the gun but, as you can see from this post - I'm very much in macro mode at the moment, looking out at the bigger picture as we prepare to re-allocate our capital for 2012. Barring some immediate disaster this week (and we are short already), our Secret Santa Hedges for 2011 are 4 for 4 with all 4 of our trades up well over 100% and XLF and XLE both at max returns with DBA just off our $29 target at $28.60 but that only applies to very greedy people who didn't take this trade off the table in August, when DBA was $34 and we soured on the sector. I'll do a full write-up as we officially close out that portfolio this weekend but I can't in good conscience replace it with 4 more bullish positions for 2012 as I'm not finding 4 things to be bullish about. We'll see how Europe acts this week but already they are not acting "fixed" and, if a Trillion Dollar commitment can't cheer them up - what will it take? Let's be careful out there! Top picture credit: thestreet.com Cooling Off chart from the Wall St. Journal Cartoon credit: Bizarro Comic Check out Phil's Stock World's Stock World Weekly free trial here. | ||
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex, What Is It Good For? Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:04 AM PST | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 07:20 AM PST December 27, 2011 [LIST] [*]Amid a quiet week, some disquieting news: A “sure thing” investment that isn’t, and another sign the “robust” retail season is just as illusory... [*]Santa Claus rally as the Dow hits a post-summer high: Jonas Elmerraji on why this looks more like a “Krampus rally.” Plus, short-term trading guidance going into the new year [*]Dividends becoming sexy again? Jim Nelson on the dividend-payers’ outperformance in 2011, and why it’s set to grow in 2012 [*]The most credible reason gold dropped from $1,750... and evidence buyers are swooping in at $1,600 [*]Readers chime in on the Keystone XL pipeline... “environmentalists”... and (uh-oh) “those videos” [/LIST] Welcome to a week’s respite. After a year in which U.S. stocks have gone nowhere, but with staggering volatility... in which eurozone leaders played endless rounds of kick the can... in which the mi... | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 06:54 AM PST Jim Sinclair's Commentary In the midst of significant MOPE about improvement in housing, prices again dropped. Specialty retailers have high inventory and are floundering. Consider this in the dollar argument of the interview with Ellis Martin carried this morning here.
Jim Sinclair's Commentary Until you feel there is a route to some cure Continue reading In The News Today | ||
Posted: 27 Dec 2011 06:53 AM PST Folks, Consider yourselves among this very small group: "Let me tell you that when this year is over, the only hands left holding physical gold and gold shares are the strongest hands on the planet. Every possible weak hand has been shaken out. Every person with emotions even latently capable of overwhelming their intellect, Continue reading Jim's Mailbox | ||
Guest Post: A Run On The Global Banking System - How Close Are We? Posted: 27 Dec 2011 06:45 AM PST Guest Post via Gonzalo Lira Nine weeks after its bankruptcy, the general public still hasn't quite realized the implications of the MF Global scandal. My own sense is, this is the first tremor of the earthquake that's coming to the global financial system. And how the central banks and financial regulators treated the "Systemically Important Financial Institutions" that had exposure to MF Global—to the detriment of the ordinary, blameless customer who got royally ripped off in its bankruptcy—is both the template of how the next financial crisis will be handled, and an accelerator that will make the next crisis happen that much sooner. So first off, what happened with MF Global? Simple: It went bankrupt—because it made bad bets on European sovereign debt, by way of leveraging positions 100-to-1. Yeah, I know: Stupid. Anyway, they went bankrupt—which in and of itself is no big deal. It's not as if it's the first time in history that a brokerage firm has gone bust. But to me, the big deal in this case was the way the bankruptcy was handled. Now there are several extremely serious aspects to the MF Global case: Specifically, how their customers were shut out of their brokerage accounts for over a week following the bankruptcy, which made it impossible for those customers to sell out of their positions, and thus caused them to lose serious money; and of course how MF Global was more adept than Mandrake the Magician at making money disappear—about $1 billion, in fact, which still hasn't turned up. These are quite serious issues which merit prolonged discussion, investigation, prosecution, and ultimately jailtime. But for now, I want to discuss one narrow aspect of the MF Global bankruptcy: How authorities (mis)handled the bankruptcy—either willfully or out of incompetence—which allowed customer's money to be stolen so as to make JPMorgan whole. From this one issue, it seems clear to me that we can infer what will happen when the next financial crisis hits in the nearterm future. Brokerage firms hold clients' money in what are known as segregated accounts. This is the money that brokerage firms hold for when a customer makes a trade. If a brokerage firm goes bankrupt, these monies are never touched—because they never belonged to the firm, and thus are not part of its assets. Think of segregated accounts as if they were the content in a safety deposit box: The bank owns the vault—but it doesn't own the content of the safety deposit boxes inside the vault. If the bank goes broke, the customers who stored their jewelry and pornographic diaries in the safe deposit boxes don't lose a thing. The bank is just a steward of those assets—just as a brokerage firm is the steward of those customers' segregated accounts. But when MF Global went bankrupt, these segregated accounts—that is, the content of those safe deposit boxes—were taken away from their rightful owners—that is, MF Global's customers—and then used to pay off other creditors: That is, JPMorgan. (The mechanics of how this was done are interesting, but insanely complicated, and ultimately not relevant to this discussion. To grossly simplify, MF Global pledged customer assets to JPMorgan, in a process known as rehypothecation—customer assets which MF Global did not have a right to. Needless to say, JPMorgan covered its ass legally. Ethically? Morally? Black as night.) This was seriously wrong—and this is the source of the scandal: Rather than being treated as a bankruptcy of a commodities brokerage firm under subchapter IV of the Chapter 7 bankruptcy law, MF Global was treated as an equities firm (subchapter III) for the purposes of its bankruptcy. Why does this difference of a single subchapter matter? Because in a brokerage firm bankruptcy, the customers get their money first—because after all, it's theirs—while in an equities firm bankruptcy, the customers are at the end of the line. In the case of MF Global, what should have happened was for all the customers to get their money first. Then everyone else—including JPMorgan—would have picked over the remaining scraps. And the monies MF Global had already pledged to JPMorgan? They call it clawback for a reason. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which handled the bankruptcy, should have done this—but instead, the Merc was more concerned with making JPMorgan whole than with protecting the money that rightfully belonged to MF Global's 40,000 customers. Thus these 40,000 MF Global customers had their money stolen—there's no polite way to characterize what happened. And this theft was not carried out by MF Global—it was carried out by the authorities who were charged with handling the firm's bankruptcy. These 40,000 customers were not Big Money types—they were farmers who had accounts to hedge their crops, individuals owning gold (like Gerald Celente—here's his account of what happened to him)— —in short, ordinary investors. Ordinary people—and they got screwed by the regulators, for the sake of protecting JPMorgan and other big fry who had exposure to MF Global. That, in a nutshell, is what happened. Now, what does this mean? It means that nobody's money is safe. It means that regulators care more about protecting the so-called "Systemically Important Financial Institutions" than about protecting Ordinary Joe investors. It means that, when crunchtime comes, central banks and government regulators will allow SIFI's to get better, and let the Ordinary Joes get fucked. So far, so evil—but here comes the really troubling part: It is an open secret that there are more paper-assets than there are actual assets. The markets are essentially playing musical chairs—and praying that the music never stops. Because if it ever does—that is, if there is ever a panic, where everyone decides that they want their actual asset instead of just a slip of paper—the system would crash. And unlike with fiat currency, where a central bank can print all the liquidity it wants, you can't print up gold bullion. You can't print up a silo of grain. You can't print up a tankerful of oil. Now, question: When is there ever a panic? When is there ever a run on a financial system? Answer: When enough participants no longer trust the system. It is the classic definition of a tipping point. It's not that all of the participants lose faith in the system or institution. It's not even when most of the participants lose faith: Rather, it's when a mere some of the participants decide they no longer trust the system that a run is triggered. And though this is completely subjective on my part—backed by no statistics except scattered anecdotal evidence—but it seems to me that MF Global has shoved us a lot closer to this theoretical run on the system. As I write this, a lot of investors whom I know personally—who are sophisticated, wealthy, and not at all the paranoid type—are quietly pulling their money out of all brokerage firms, all banks, all equity firms. They are quietly trading out of their paper assets and going into the actual, physical asset. Note that they're not trading into the asset—they're simply exchanging their paper-asset for the real thing. Why? MF Global. "The MF Global scandal has made it clear that the integrity of the system has disappeared," said a good friend of mine, Tuur Demeester, who runs Macrotrends, a Dutch-language newsletter out of Brugge. "The banks are insolvent, the governments are insolvent, and all that's left is for the people to realize what's going on—and that will start a panic." He hit it on the head: Some of the more sophisticated people—like Tuur, like some of my acquaintances, (like myself, frankly)—have realized that the MF Global scandal means that there is no safety for any paper investment: The integrity of the systems has been completely shattered. If in the face of one medium-sized brokerage firm going under, the regulators will openly allow ordinary people to be ripped off for the sake of protecting the so-called "Systemically Important Financial Institutions"—in this case JPMorgan—what will happen if there is a system-wide run? What if two or three MF Globals happen simultaneously? Will they protect the citizens' money? Or will they protect the "Systemically Important Financial Institutions"? I think we know the answer. And I think we all know the answer to the question of whether there will be crisis flashpoint in the near-term future: After all, as Demeester pointed out, all the banks and all the governments are broke. Thus it's only a matter of time before they come for your money. At SPG, we've been putting together Scenarios for other black swan events which are becoming increasingly likely: What to do if the eurozone breaks up, what to do if you have to leave America, what to do if there is an Israeli-Iranian war, what to do if there is forced dollar devaluation, and so on. Now, because of this open kleptocracy and cronyism being shown by the financial authorities in the wake of the MF Global bankruptcy, we've been obliged to put together a new Scenario, devoted exclusively to preparing for a run on the markets: What to do in order to protect your assets from regulatory malfeasance, if there is a system-wide MF Global-type breakdown and a subsequent run on the entire financial system. And there will be such a run on the system: It's only a matter of time. In fact, the handling of the MF Global affair has sped up the timeframe for this run on the system, because the forward-edge players—such as Demeester, myself, and my other acquaintances who understand the implications of the bankruptcy—realize that the regulators will side with the banksters, and not the ordinary investors: So we are preparing accordingly. Once there is a full-on panic, anyone with money in the system will lose at least a big chunk of it, in one of two ways, or a combination thereof: • One, the firms—commodities brokerage firms, equity firms, investment banks and commercial banks—will not allow people to withdraw the totality of their money, and/or they will put a withdrawal cap of some sort, enforced by the central banks and other regulatory bodies. (Like they did in Argentina.) • Two, the central banks will "provide liquidity"—that is, print money—while simultaneously declaring a banking holiday to, quote, "calm the markets". During that bank holiday, the currency will be devalued by double digits—which will mean that your cash holdings will essentially be taxed to save the banksters—again. (Like they did in Argentina.) Thus apart from proving that the United States really is Argentina with nukes, the MF Global bankruptcy has proven something crucial: The central banks and government regulators have completely fallen into the trap of confusing the welfare of the "Systemically Important Financial Institutions" with the welfare of the system itself. They don't seem to realize that the SIFI's are actors within the system—not the system itself. We critics of the current, corrupt state of affairs also sometimes confuse the SIFI's with the system itself, whenever we say, "The whole system is corrupt!" But the system is not corrupt—it's the regulators and SIFI's who are corrupt. If nothing else, the handling of the MF Global bankruptcy has proven that, once and for all. That's why we're pulling out our money now—while we still can. Because once the general public catches on to what we already know . . . oh boy.
If you're interested, check out the SPG preview page. The various Scenarios I discussed above ("When the Euro Breaks", "Exit America", "An Israeli-Iranian War", etc.) are currently available. The Scenario discussing how to protect assets from a system-wide run will appear on January 20. | ||
Pento - Here is Why Gold Price Will Stay Strong & Not Retreat Posted: 27 Dec 2011 06:35 AM PST ![]() This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
How The Bankers Drive Up Bullion Prices, Part II Posted: 27 Dec 2011 06:29 AM PST In Part I, I observed that if we really wanted to understand how the short-term manipulation/suppression of the gold and silver markets leads to even higher longer term prices we needed to focus on the relentless attacks by the bankers against the miners. I explained why the bankers have such a pathological hatred toward the miners: 1) Higher valuations for the miners are seen as a bullish "buy" signal for the sector as a whole. 2) Gold and silver miners are certain to decouple (to the upside) from all other classes of equities. However, by suppressing the share prices of the miners even more ruthlessly than they suppress the bullion market itself, the bankers are not only ensuring even higher long-term bullion prices but ultimately better/higher valuations for the miners as well. The mechanics of this progression are yet another illustration of the "irresistible force" represented by the principals of supply and demand. I was tempted to include a chart of bullion prices versus miner share prices. Unfortunately, the only proxies available for miner share prices are one of the miner indices: either the HUI or XAU. However, those indices are dominated by the larger cap miners, and more importantly are comprised almost entirely of producers. This distorts our picture of the gold and silver miners in several respects. First of all these companies at the top of the "food chain" represent only a tiny minority of the total number of gold (and silver) miners. Secondly they understate the level of suppression taking place, since whenever these troughs in the sector occur the junior miners are punished much more severely in markets than the larger-cap companies. The global mining industry is not powered by multinational mining giants like BHP Billiton or Freeport McMorran. It may be dominated by these large-cap miners, but they in turn are utterly dependent upon the diligent (and efficient) exploration and development of the junior miners, who locate/develop almost all of the world's new and important mineral deposits. The gold and silver miners are no different. The average large-cap gold miner wouldn't know a gold deposit if it tripped over one. Rather, these clumsy behemoths simply wait for the expertise of the juniors to identify large and lucrative deposits – and then they place a phone call to their bankers and set in motion a take-over. The reality here, however, is that most of the value (for shareholders) is generated in the finding-and-development stage – and not through these buy-outs followed by mine construction and eventually production. The proof here is the long term performance of the juniors versus the seniors. Even with the relentless suppression of the bankers, long term investors in this sector have been able to reap excellent returns from quality junior miners. Meanwhile, the performance of the seniors has been nothing less than abysmal. Not only have the large-caps failed to provide any leverage on the price of bullion (as they are supposed to), but as a class they have provided only a small fraction of the return of bullion itself. Only part of this dismal under-performance can be attributed to lost $billions due to their ill-advised (banker-driven) hedging and other gold derivatives. Focusing on gold, the problem for the seniors is that they are too lazy to develop the smaller gold deposits, while the 5+ million ounce deposits which they covet are naturally yielding top-dollar when they are sold (living in an era of permanently rising gold prices). Unfortunately for the senior producers, the serial currency-dilution of the bankers (otherwise known as "competitive devaluation") means that prices are rising for everything. So after paying dearly to buy these gold deposits, the seniors are then faced with soaring construction costs. Exacerbating this problem, because of their focus on large deposits, and because of the additional permitting and development time required for these larger projects, it is the senior producers who suffer the maximum profit erosion due to these cost overruns. |
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