A unique and safe way to buy gold and silver 2013 Passport To Freedom Residency Kit
Buy Gold & Silver With Bitcoins!

Monday, December 26, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

Silver Update: 12/24/11 Holiday Deals

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 07:00 PM PST

China Insolvency Wave Begins As Nation's Biggest Provincal Borrowers "Defer" Loan Payments

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 04:07 PM PST

Remember, back in the day, when a bankruptcy was simply called a bankruptcy? Naturally, this was well before ISDA came on the scene and footnoted the living feces out of everything by claiming that a bankruptcy is never a bankruptcy, as long as the creditors agree to 99.999% losses at gunpoint, with electrodes strapped to their testicles, submerged in a tank full of rabid piranhas, it they just sign a piece of paper (preferably in their own blood) saying the vaseline-free gang abuse was consensual. Well, now we learn that as the global insolvency wave finally moves to China, a bankruptcy is now called something even less scary: "deferred loan payments" (and also explains why suddenly Japan is going to have to bail China out and buy its bonds, because somehow when China fails, it is the turn of the country that started the whole deflationary collapse to step to the plate). After all, who in their right mind would want to scare the public that the entire world is now broke. Certainly not SWIFT. And certainly not that paragon of 8%+ annual growth, where no matter how many layers of lipstick are applied, the piggyness of it all is shining through ever more acutely. Because here are the facts, from China Daily, and they speaks for themselves: "China's biggest provincial borrowers are deferring payment on their loans just two months after the country's regulator said some local government companies would be allowed to do so....Hunan Provincial Expressway Construction Group is delaying payment on 3.11 billion yuan in interest, documents governing the securities show this month. Guangdong Provincial Communications Group Co, the second-largest debtor, is following suit. So are two others among the biggest 11 debtors, for a total of 30.16 billion yuan, according to bond prospectuses from 55 local authorities that have raised money in capital markets since the beginning of November." So not even two months in and companies are already becoming serial defaulters, pardon, "loan payment deferrers?" And China is supposed to bail out the world? Ironically, in a world in which can kicking is now an art form, China will show everyone just how it is done, by effectively upturning the capital structure and saying that paying interest is, well, optional. In the immortal words of the comrade from Georgia, "no coupon, no problem."

Our advice: go long Teva, which recently acquired Cephalon, and its wonderful drug Provigil, which is basically legalized cocaine, speed, meth and heroin all in one perfectly legal pill, as the newsflow, up until now only picking up with the idiot headlines out of Europe at 3 am Eastern is about to become one constant 24/7 flashing red rumor/disinformation mill. Also, next time someone wants to make THE drug cocktail of choice for the headline reacting speed trading junkie, please name it appropriately. Jeffrey will suffice.

More on China's piglipsticking:

As local governments delay payments for projects commissioned as part of the stimulus to ward off recession in 2009, less money is available for bank lending even as China is taking steps to inject more into the economy. The central bank has held interest rates at 6.56 percent since July to boost the economy, while the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have kept benchmark rates near zero since 2008.

 

"When companies start to roll over debt they're not retiring debt, and banks aren't retrieving their capital, so you're crowding out new lending," Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said in a Dec 13 interview. "This is a problem that's going to start to bite next year."

 

Local governments had 10.7 trillion yuan in debt at the end of last year, 79 percent due to banks, according to the country's first audit released in June. So-called local financing vehicles that meet collateral requirements can have a one-time extension on their loans, Zhou Mubing, vice-chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a conference on Oct 24 organized by the Internet portal Sina.com.cn, according to a transcript of his comments on the website.

 

Guangdong Provincial Communications Group, Hunan Provincial Expressway Construction Group, Gansu Provincial Highway Aviation Tourism Investment Group Co and Sichuan Railway Investment Group Co owe more than 200 billion yuan to banks, the data show. They plan to defer 34.4 billion yuan in interest payments, according to their bond prospectuses.

Yes, that's a lot, and it's going to get much worse. But not if you listen to Beijing Bob: yes, even communist countries have a department of propaganda:

Lei Wanming, Gansu Highway's deputy Communist Party secretary, said the company's interest payment deferrals do not raise any concerns. "Our company can pay our interest and our principal payments with no problem," he said in a Dec 5 interview. "You can't just consider this issue by looking at a bond prospectus."

Said otherwise, all is good, and China's 'relatively fast' growth is still on the agenda:

National leaders set a goal of "relatively fast" economic growth for 2012 at a major conference in Beijing that ended on Dec 14, according to the Xinhua News Agency. The global outlook "remains very grim", Xinhua cited the leaders as saying.

What is most ironic is that Meredith Whitney will be right... just wrong about the country.

The extra yield required to hold Hunan Provincial Expressway's 900 million yuan in 2012 bonds has increased to 308 basis points from 151 basis points on June 21, when they were issued. That compares with a current spread of 11 basis points on Shenzhen's five-year direct municipal bonds. 

 

Yields on local government financing company bonds will remain high next year as selling debt becomes a main channel for raising funds, China International Capital Corp analysts led by the fixed-income analyst Xu Xiaoqing wrote in a Dec 16 research note. Most of the bonds are sold at yields of 8 percent, or 144 basis points more than the benchmark bank lending rate, according to the report. Five-year top-rated corporate bonds yield 4.98 percent, according to Chinabond, the nation's bond clearing house.

 

"Although the China Banking Regulatory Commission has recently eased loan restrictions to help liquidity, recent supply has been increasing, causing the secondary market to pay attention to systemic risks," they wrote. "The credit quality of recent financing vehicle bonds continues to get weaker."

For those who refuse to swallow China's lies, there is one way around it:

Five-year credit-default swaps insuring against default on China's sovereign debt rose 3.2 basis points recently to 149.66 basis points, according to data provider CMA...

As more and more scratch their heads, the math is clearly not your friend:

Even after the reduction in interest payments, Gansu Provincial Highway said that interest and principal payments in 2011 will amount to 3.33 billion yuan, more than its 2010 cash flow of 3.04 billion yuan, according to bond-marketing materials.

 

"This prospectus is telling us that banks can expect to only receive roughly half of what would have been expected in interest payments," Charlene Chu, a Beijing-based banking analyst with Fitch Ratings, said of the Gansu disclosure.

And as for what happens when an entire continent is stuck fighting simple math and failing, we refer you all to the case study that is Europe.

So as we all prepare for what is set to be, without doubt, a relentless barrage of headlines, lies, innunedo, rumors, media counterrumors, more lies, propaganda, from Europe, the US and now Asia, here, again, is Jeffrey.

There are five apocalyptic engines pushing the growth in US money supply: they are the government’s budget deficit, its debt trap, the financial condition of the banks, the delusion of Keynesian solutions, and lastly simple compounding arithmetic.

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 03:40 PM PST

Gold price set for hyperbolic increase


World's Second And Third Largest Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 03:24 PM PST

[Ed Note: The cracks in the world's reserve currency will soon become giant fissures, causing an epic seismic financial event sure to shake unsuspecting Americans to their very core.]

from Bloomberg:

Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said.

Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi that leaves China during the transactions, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday. Encouraging direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs, Japan's government said.

China is Japan's biggest trading partner with 26.5 trillion yen ($340 billion) in two-way transactions last year, from 9.2 trillion yen a decade earlier. The pacts between the world's second- and third-largest economies mirror attempts by fund managers to diversify as the two-year-old European debt crisis keeps global financial markets volatile.

"Given the huge size of the trade volume between the Asia's two biggest economies, this agreement is much more significant than any other pacts China has signed with other nations," said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based economist with IHS Global Insight Ltd.

Read More @ Bloomberg.com

World's Second And Third Largest Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 02:56 PM PST

To all who still think that in the war of attrition between the USD and the EUR (because contrary to what some have "discovered" only recently, currency wars have been going on for a long, long time and will continue to do so, before morphing into trade and real wars), in which both currencies are doomed, and where the winner takes it all, if only for a few minutes, we bring to your attention the following most recent update out of the Pacific Rim (where incidentally the Shanghai Composite has resumed its relentless track lower with the obvious intention of closing 2011 at its 52 week low) in which we find i) that the dollar's hegemonic control over the world is ending, and ii) that the mercantilist relationship so long sustained between China and the US, may be shifting and reversing, and in its next metamorphosis will see Japan buying the bonds of... China (although probably not for long - see next post). As Bloomberg reports, "Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for the exchange, to cut costs for companies, the Japanese government said. Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday." And before someone blows it off as merely more foreign relations posturing, ""Given the huge size of the trade volume between the Asia's two biggest economies, this agreement is much more significant than any other pacts China has signed with other nations," said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based economist with IHS Global Insight Ltd." As for China's reverse mercantilist move, one which will stun anyone who believes that Yuan is still undervalued, "Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Dec. 20 buying of Chinese bonds would be beneficial for Japan because it would help reveal more information about financial markets in China, the world's largest holder of foreign currency reserves." Speaking of, has Albert Edwards gloated yet that given enough time, he always ends up being proven right, in this case about the CNY's upcoming devaluation?

Some more on the direct FX bypass, something which should piss of USD traders quite a bit, from Bloomberg:

Encouraging direct yen-yuan trades will aim to reduce currency risks and trading costs, Japan's government said. Currently, about 60 percent of trade transactions between the two nations are settled in dollars, according to Japan's Finance Ministry. China is Japan's biggest trading partner.

 

Then-finance minister Noda said in September 2010 that Japan should be able to invest in China's market given that China buys Japanese debt. Japan holds $1.3 trillion of foreign- currency reserves, the world's second largest.

 

Austria has already been granted the eligibility to buy Chinese bonds, according to the Japanese government official. Central banks from Thailand to Nigeria plan to start buying yuan assets as slowing global growth has capped interest rates in the U.S. and Europe.

 

Investing in Chinese debt has become easier for central banks as issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong more than tripled to 112 billion yuan ($18 billion) this year and institutions were granted quotas to invest onshore.

So while the US and Europe bicker over just who it is that will first end up bailing out one then the other, those who are supposedly doing the bailing, have decided to gradually move away from the interminable financial sink hole that is the developed world. All that needs to happen next is for Russia and India to join this compact, and Jim O'Neill will be proven 'right', although with a 100% inverse outcome to the one desired by the Goldmanite, as globalization proceeds merrily on its way... just without the US and Europe.


How The FAZ-Mobile Promises To Lose 99.6% Of Your Money Even If The Market Crashes By 60%

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 12:45 PM PST

Three years ago, when it first became largely adopted by the mass investing population as a hedge to a collapsing market, the 3x levered ETF known as the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares, or FAZ in short, was the hottest thing since sliced bread. Subsequently, it has transitioned form being an object of affection to one of infinite scorn, hatred and outright homicidal urges, for one simple reason: it, like many of its other levered bearish peers, is anything but a way to profit from a collapsing market. In fact, as a recent proxy filing by Direxion indicates, it is virtually impossible to make money in the long-term using FAZ... or medium-term... or, as many would say, even intraday as well. The reason for this is simple: while nobody gets the true inner workings of these inverse x-levered ETFs, certainly not the "experts" who post three times a day on Seeking Alpha, one thing everyone should understand is what the following table straight from Direxion is saying: namely that even if the market collapses by 60%, one could lose up to 96.1% of their entire investment in the FAZ, if for some ungoldy reason, annualized vol surges to 100%. Because, you know, vol only occasionally rises when the S&P plunges by more than half. The same is applicable on any time frame: in essence the FAZ only works if the two massively contradictory Venn diagrams overlap: a market plunge and not rise in vol. Uhm, maybe they should have disclosed that a little bit sooner...

This Direxion explains as follows, just so readers can do a text search in their favorite "short" ETF to confirm that it is nothing but another disguised instrument designed to lose money no matter what the market does:

Over time, the cumulative percentage increase or decrease in the value of the Fund's portfolio may diverge significantly from the cumulative percentage increase or decrease in the multiple of the return of the Fund's underlying index due to the compounding effect of losses and gains on the returns of the Fund. It also is expected that the Fund's use of leverage will cause the Fund to underperform the compounded inverse return of three times its benchmark in a trendless or flat market.

 

The effect of compounding becomes more pronounced on the Fund's performance as the Index experiences volatility. The Index's volatility rate is a statistical measure of the magnitude of fluctuations in the returns of the Index. The table below provides examples of how Index volatility could affect the Fund's performance. The chart shows estimated Fund returns for a number of combinations of performance and volatility over a one-year period. As shown below, this Fund, or any other 3X Bear Fund, would be expected to lose 31.3% (as shown in Table 1 below) if its Index provided no return over a one year period during which the Index experienced annualized volatility of 25%.

 

If the Index's annualized volatility were to rise to 75%, the hypothetical loss for a one year period for the Fund widens to approximately 96.6%. At higher ranges of volatility, there is a chance of a near complete loss of value even if the Index is flat. For instance, if the Index's annualized volatility is 100%, the Fund would be expected to lose approximately 100% of its value, even if the cumulative Index return for the year was only 0%.

With that table in mind, perhaps the next table is far more palatable: it shows the "performance" of the FAZ-mobile... straight to the poorhouse.

We dread to even calculate what an investment of $100 on January 1 2009 would be worth today.

And here are some other pearls of brilliance from the Direxion proxy:

Shorting Risk — The Fund may engage in short sales designed to earn the Fund a profit from the decline in the price of particular securities, baskets of securities or indices. However, there is a risk that the Fund will experience a loss as a result of engaging in these short sales.

Mmhmm, you go long an inverse leveraged ETF which guarantees to lose you money in the long-run, yet the fund, which works by synthetic and actual shorting, warns you of risk associated with... shorting?

But the kicker undoubtedly is:

Income and capital gain distributions you receive from the Fund are subject to federal income taxes and may also be subject to state and local taxes. Distributions for this Fund may be significantly higher than those of most exchange-traded funds.

Oh, something tells us the likelihood of FAZ being the source of actual taxable income, and thus having to worry a whole lot about this particular risk factor, is not all that high.

In other words: anyone who believes that market may go up or collapse, with vol exploding, should probably consder not going long the FAZ. Or any other levered ETF, all of which effectively guarantee to lose most if not all of your capital. Because apparently America never learned its lesson with synthetic CDOs in the aftermath of Abacus et al.

China, Japan to back direct trade of currencies, sidestepping dollar

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 12:38 PM PST

By Toru Fujioka
Bloomberg News
Sunday, December 25, 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-25/china-japan-to-promote-direct-t...

TOYKO -- Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for the exchange, to cut costs for companies, the Japanese government said.

Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday.

The deals between the world's second and third-largest economies come as the 2-year-old European debt crisis keeps global financial markets volatile. Japan will start to buy "a small amount" of China's bonds, a Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity because of the ministry's policy, without elaborating on when and how much of the debt the nation plans to purchase.

... Dispatch continues below ...


ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Drills 384.9 Meters Grading 0.623 g/t PGM+Au,
0.3% Ni, 0.15% Cu (0.45% NiEq) From Surface At Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
Thursday, December 8, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) has announced the final drill results from 2011 drilling at the company's fully owned Wellgreen platinum group metals, nickel, and copper project in the Yukon Territory.

Borehole WS11-192 intercepted 384.9 meters of 0.45 percent nickel equivalent starting from 9.45 meters depth. Included in this greater interval of continuous mineralization is a platinum group metals-rich zone with a combined platinum-palladium-gold grade of 1.358 grams per ton over 19.23 meters (nickel equivalent 0.74%).

The final drilling results for 2011 have shown the Wellgreen Central-East and Central-West deposits to be one contiguous body, whereby there is good potential to broaden significantly the Central-West resource base, which currently contributes only about a quarter of the current 43-101 compliant resource at Wellgreen. Overall the drilling program met with good success in expanding the resource to the east and south. The long drill intercepts suggest the deposit remains very much open in those directions.

For the complete drilling results and the full company statement, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2011_dec08_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_dril...


"Given the huge size of the trade volume between the Asia's two biggest economies, this agreement is much more significant than any other pacts China has signed with other nations," said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based economist with IHS Global Insight Ltd.

Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Dec. 20 buying of Chinese bonds would be beneficial for Japan because it would help reveal more information about financial markets in China, the world's largest holder of foreign currency reserves.

Encouraging direct yen-yuan trades will aim to reduce currency risks and trading costs, Japan's government said. Currently, about 60 percent of trade transactions between the two nations are settled in dollars, according to Japan's Finance Ministry. China is Japan's biggest trading partner.

Then-finance minister Noda said in September 2010 that Japan should be able to invest in China's market given that China buys Japanese debt. Japan holds $1.3 trillion of foreign-currency reserves, the world's second largest.

Austria has already been granted the eligibility to buy Chinese bonds, according to the Japanese government official. Central banks from Thailand to Nigeria plan to start buying yuan assets as slowing global growth has capped interest rates in the U.S. and Europe.

Investing in Chinese debt has become easier for central banks as issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong more than tripled to 112 billion yuan ($18 billion) this year and institutions were granted quotas to invest onshore.

China sold the second-biggest net amount of Japanese debt on record in October as the yen headed for a postwar high against the dollar and benchmark yields approached their lowest levels in a year. It cut Japanese debt by 853 billion yen ($11 billion), Japan's Ministry of Finance said on Dec. 8.

Separately, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, JGC Corp., Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., the Export-Import Bank of China, and other Chinese companies will establish a $154 million fund to invest in environment-related businesses such as recycling and energy, the Japanese government said.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 22-23, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme...

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf

A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 08:31 AM PST

By EconMatters

Goldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012. 

 

Export Growth Could Drop to Zero in 2012 

 

The General Administration of Customs released November trade figures showing export growth continued to decelerate and was at their most sluggish in two years.  At a news conference, China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson warned,

"The overall trade environment next year for China will be complicated, partly due to the economic uncertainties in the European countries, and I should say that the export situation in the first quarter of next year will be very severe."

Wang Tao, an economist at UBS Securities noted China's growth is expected to "drop to zero in 2012," which will have a "sizable negative impact on the economy," and that the export figures underline "shifts in the export structure - some traditional lower-end and labor-intensive sectors may be losing market share to cheaper producers." (See Chart Below) 

 

Chart Source: ChinaDaily.com, 14 Dec. 2011

 

FDI Sees Its First YoY Drop in 28 Months 

 

Part of China's recent explosive growth has to do with foreign investments pouring into the country to capitalize on the expected burgeoning middle class income growth. But in November, China experienced its first year-on-year dip of 9.76%  in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 28 months primarily from a sharp drop in inflows from the United States, while investments from the European Union -- China's single largest trading partner -- were essentially flat.  (See Chart Below).

 

Moreover, this drop came on top of the first net capital outflow from China in four years in October, asinvestors fled emerging markets due to Europe's festering debt crisis.

 

 

Chart Source: ChinaDaily.com, 16 Dec. 2011

 


Manufacturing Tanks To Near Three-Year Low

 

China's manufacturing contracted for the first time since February 2009 with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November from 50.4 in October.

 

The December number did not bode well either as the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI an early indicator of China's industrial activity, showed China's factory output shrank again in December after new orders fell. (See Chart Below)

 

Chart Source: HSBC, 15 Dec. 2011

 

PBOC Reversing Course - How Bad Is The Economy? 

In early December, PBOC (The People's Bank of China), China's central bank, announced the first cut in banks' reserve requirements since 2008, just two hours before the U.S. Federal Reserve led a global dollar liquidity injection to ease Europe's sovereign debt crisis.  And there could be more easing on the way, as Reuters reported that data showed Chinese banks made 562 billion yuan of new loans in November, a shade more than forecast as Beijing gently eases tight credit conditions.

 

China has made controlling prices a top priority this year and implemented a series of tightening measures.   Inflation fell from a three-year high of 6.5% in July to 4.2% in November, which is still above Beijing's current inflation target of 4%.  And China's inflation battle is far from over as rising labor costs and higher input prices are among the factors that will continue to push up consumer price levels.

 

So the more interesting question is how bad is the real economy for China to reverse course taking on the risk of re-surging inflation pressures?

 

Escalating Social Unrest

 

Inflation and social unrest goes hand-in-hand and has toppled quite a few governments in the history book.  Judging from the recent Wukan Siege, the social unrest in China (due to disputes in wages, land grab, etc.) seems to have escalated in both scale and duration.  This could suggest a more serious mid-to-long-term undercurrent that would be challenging and delicate to handle for the central government.

 

Conclusion

 

From what we discussed so far, it is evidenta pronounced China slowdown in the next year or so is inevitablewith the nation's export-centric economy struggling with waning global demand, while undergoing domestic structural economic and demographic shifts.  Moreover, there could besome hidden debt bombsas a recent Bloomberg finding suggests that China's banks may be understating their exposure to runaway local borrowing by possibly billions of dollars that is raising fears of a government bailout.

 

How Beijing steers its economic and monetary policies in the next 2-3 years will be key to balance the country's inflation, growth and stability.  While we see a very low probability of a hard landing case for China, but if Jim O'Neill is right about how much the world depends on China's growth, then don't count on that much world prosperity, at least in 2012.

 

©EconMattersAll Rights Reserved | Facebook| Twitter| Post Alert| Kindle

Gold price set for hyperbolic increase

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 08:09 AM PST

Goldmoney


A SWIFT Denial - How In Europe, Even Admission Of A "Plan B" Is Equivalent To Failure

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 07:27 AM PST

While we have long known that the drachma, and recently the lira, have seen significant "when issued" interest by institutional clients desiring to hedge their currency collapse exposure, and thus early markets by various trading desks, little did we realize just how destabilizing this fact to the system would be, at least according to SWIFT. According to the WSJ, this organization, best known for making an abrupt appearance any time one wishes to do a wire transfer, then promptly disappearing until the next such instance, ended up promptly shutting down any Plan B optionality when "at least two global banks took steps to install back-up technology systems that could handle trades in old European currencies like drachmas, escudos and lire... quickly found, is not so easy in a financial world that is trying to both exhibit confidence in the ailing euro and—just in case—plan for its possible demise. Technology managers at the banks contacted Swift, the Belgium-based consortium that manages the network used in financial transactions, said people familiar with the matter. The banks wanted Swift's technology support and the currency codes that would be necessary to set up the backup systems." And got promptly rejected: "Swift declined to provide some information for such contingency planning, including whether old codes could be used in the system, said the people familiar with the matter." The reason is that in Europe, the mere admission that Plan B is a possibility, apparently set off a chain of events that makes Plan B an inevitability: "...officials there feared that releasing the information could fuel further doubts and instability in the euro zone."

And so Europe is left to fend on its own, with the mere mention of the possibility of failure being completely ignored, as the mere contemplation of failure is not only no longer an option, but apparently an outright admission of defeat. Needless to say, the fact that European banks have no way to hedge anything any more, CDS trading having been killed, thank you ISDA, and now supervisory bodies themselves telling banks to not even consider Plan B, is enough reason why the LTRO will be an abysmal failure.

Because one does not need to be a rocket scientist to realize that when everyone is telling you that even Plan B is improper, then it is all too clear there is absolutely no Plan Whatever.

As the WSJ captions it best:

It is a relatively minor setback for banks, as they look at everything from loan agreements to the safety of their branch staff in the event of one country's withdrawal from the euro currency.

 

But it illustrates the road blocks that politicians, banks and companies in Europe face as they attempt to simultaneously prepare for a euro-zone break up while assuaging market fears.

 

"As soon as you start contingency planning   . . . it can become a foregone conclusion," said Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura PLC.  "But if things go wrong and you don't have plans in place, you're in trouble."

Kinda like Jon Corzine, who bet it all on double zero, and found out the hard way that the lack of hedges coupled with the realization that one is either not Too Big To Fail, or, even worse, Too Big To Save, can lead to very hazardous consequences for one's health.

In the meantime, the doomed European continent can best be described by the following bird, which in our opinion should become the Eurozone's failed neo-globalist symbol.

Why?

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi this past week said that such speculation about the euro's demise is "morbid."

 

Nevertheless, governments, finance firms and corporations have been quietly stepping up plans in the past several weeks to prepare for a worst-case scenario.

 

The Financial Services Authority, the U.K.'s bank watchdog, has sent letters to the country's major banks asking for updates on their level of preparedness, and a similar dialogue has begun between banks and regulators in the U.S. in recent weeks, said the people familiar with the matter.

 

The U.K. Foreign Office has begun making contingency plans to evacuate U.K. residents from Spain and Portugal in the case of bank meltdowns in those countries, said a person familiar with the matter. In a sign of concern over stirring panic, a spokesman was tight-lipped about details apart to say that office is always preparing for all types of scenarios.

 

In another sign of escalating fears, some corporate firms with operations in Greece and elsewhere in Southern Europe have begun transferring their cash out of Greece on almost a daily basis—compared to the normal two-week interval—as a precaution against a sudden loss in value if currencies are revived, said a banker familiar with the companies' transactions.

 

Prepping their systems to handle codes for old European of currencies is one way banks are taking steps to buffer themselves against major business disruptions if any country suddenly leaves the euro zone.

As to the specific nature of the problem at hand, which very soon will come front and center:

One question banks have, and have not been able to clarify, is whether codes for now-defunct currencies, such as GRD for the Greek drachma, will be valid in the current Swift system.

 

A Swift spokesman said the company is ready to take whatever actions are required to maintain normal operations, but that "it is not appropriate this time for Swift to comment on issues specifically associated with the euro zone."

 

If a new currency emerges, it is handled by a maintenance agency affiliated with the International Standards Organization. A spokesman for that agency, SIX Interbank Clearing Ltd., said the agency has several projects looking at "dire scenarios" but the contingency plans for such scenarios have so far remained confidential.

Unfortunately by the time it "is appropriate to comment" it will be too late, as by then it will be merely the latest confirmation that everything the world's voodoo priests (f/k/a economists) have taken as gospel and sacred writings for so many decades, has been dead wrong. Only instead of quietly admitting their failure and exiting stage left in complete humiliation but with some hope for fixing the system, they would rather leave the proverbial flood in their wake, and a world completely destroyed out of blind adherence to a broken economic "theory."

HSBC: The World’s Dirtiest Bank

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 06:46 AM PST

[Ed Note: I've always wondered why, out of all the banks, it was HSBC that conspires with JP Morgan to constrain the prices of physical precious metals. JP Morgan is the custodian of the SLV 'Trust', while HSBC maintains control over the GLD 'Trust'. This piece explains a lot.]

by Dean Henderson:

(excerpted from Chapter 2: Hong Kong Shanghaied: Big Oil & Their Bankers in the Persian Gulf…)

In late July, First Niagara Financial Group announced that it would buy 195 retail bank branches in New York and Connecticut from HSBC for around $1 billion. [1] HSBC acquired the branches when it bought the spooky Marine Midland in 1980. According to Global Finance, the UK-headquartered HSBC Holdings is the world's 3rd largest bank with $2.36 trillion in assets. [2] Formerly known as Hong Kong Shanghai Bank Corporation, HSBC has served as the world's #1 drug money laundry since its inception as a repository for British Crown opium proceeds accrued during the Chinese Opium Wars. During the Vietnam War HSBC laundered CIA heroin proceeds.

In Saigon the opium junta which Lucien Conein and Ed Lansdale had installed instructed the South Vietnamese military to dole out heroin to Chinese Triad syndicates who moved it to Hong Kong. The CIA's Thai Generals used the same Chui Chao Triads as mafiakingpin Santos Trafficante. The Thais often sent morphine to Hong Kong, which was refined into heroin by the Hong Kong police. [3]

Deak & Company was the major gold dealer in Hong Kong and its operations were crucial to the CIA guns for heroin trade. Founded by OSS operative Nicholas Deak, it became the largest currency and gold trader in the US after WWII. Deak financed CIA adventures in Vietnam, the Mossadegh coup in Iran and the CIA's assassination of nationalist Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba in the Congo. Deak used a Swiss subsidiary, Foreign Commerce Bank of Zurich, and its US Deak Perera branch to lure flight capital from wealthy Third World elites, mainly cocaine money from Argentina. When Deak suddenly went bankrupt in 1985, its Hong Kong depositors were left in the lurch. [4]

Long before the Vietnam War, the British elite had made a healthy living smuggling opium from the region. Lord Shelbourne launched the Chinese opium trade in 1783 with Scottish merchants from the East India Company and members of the House of Windsor-allied Knights of St. John Jerusalem.

Read More @ IntelHub.com:

And Now, A Present: "Are The Brokers Broken" - A Reprise

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 03:22 AM PST

Often times we are asked "why does Zero Hedge prefer to provide information in piecemeal increments and isolated snapshots (of irregularity) rather than write comprehensive articles (or even a book) that explain, from beginning to end why everything is broken - the end?" There are two answers - a short and a long one. The short answer is that finance, more so than any other field, changes so rapidly that the nuances are always and constantly on the margin, which in turn is stable only for the period of time that it is observed, and then it becomes part of "technical analysis." (Indeed, the Schrodinger wave function collapse is just as alive and well in finance as it is in the quantum arena). As such, we adhere to the paradigm describing the distinction between giving a man a fish and teaching a man to fish: we believe that it is far more useful to demonstrate all that ways in which the market (and global economy) works, or rather doesn't, than engage in extended exercises of vanity, which serve as much to stroke the author's ego, and demonstrate one's knowledge of SAT words, as they do to elucidate the matter at hand. By sharing our own views of events as they transpire in real time, be they right or wrong, we hope to provide our readers with the "connect the dots" patchwork required to evaluate relevant financial events as they occur in real time, instead of describing them in the in vitro vacuum of moody brooding. (As for a book, we are more than confident enough "independent" bloggers out there will succumb to the very system their protest against, and pen a few hundred pages on the goal-seeked topic of their choosing - the last thing the vast upcoming book pyre needs is our own intellectual self-pleasuring). The long answer is far longer, and, ironically, deserves a post of its own. But this is neither the time nor the place. What then is the purpose of this post is to break away from our tradition, but also not to recreate the wheel, as many others find delight in doing. Instead, as a special present to our readers, we share the seminal analysis by Citigroup's Matt King from September 5, 2008, titled "Are The Brokers Broken?" which in one place explains, better than anyone else has ever done, why the system is terminally broken, and why the best anyone can hope for is to keep kicking the can down the road until it all comes crashing down.

The report, which came out ten days before the Lehman collapse, was according to some, one the primary catalysts for the collapse of Lehman and the subsequent near collapse of the entire house of cards, as it explained better than anything to that point (and arguably since), just how hollow and broken the one all important component of modern finance - the multi-trillion shadow banking system is.

Sure enough, once the majority of analysts and traders out there, who for the most part are simple automatons who only push buttons all day and can barely see beyond the 8th screen on their Bloomberg terminal, comprehended the irreparable nature of the systemic break in terms even they would understand, the panic commenced, and resulted in a full blown run on every form of liquidity which also happens to be synonymous with quote unquote bank: yes, Lehman, on the simple visible side, but far more importantly, on money markets, that primary conduit (along with repos) of the shadow banking system. It was this, far more than the Lehman collapse (whose end they had greenlighted), that stunned the powers that be, who did not anticipate any of the aftershocks that would start cascading through the US shadow banking system which according to our estimates is about $15 trillion most recently (well above total traditional liabilities which are still below $14 trillion) , while according to others when one adds the rehypothecation "value" of various commingled assets, could be up to $4-6 trillion larger.

So while we all partake in the spirit of goodwill to man and festive joy (however brief), if for no other reason than because "we should", our present to our readers is that most important gift - knowledge, and the understanding of the truth behind the headlines which the traditional media will never provide, for fear of the all out panic that would ensue if the general public, just like the specialized financial industry, in the days after September 5, 2008, were to understand just how futile the actions of the Fed and the global banking cartel are when presented with all the facts.

In summary: the following report was 100% correct when it first came out and predicted the Lehman, and all other collapses; it is even more correct now, as nothing has changed, only the stakes have now gotten that much ('infinitely' some would say since every central bank is now all in on preserving the fake reality that is artificial central planning) greater. Unfortunately, because nobody listened and nobody learned from the events in late 2008, the next time around there will be no redo.

To understand why, read on (pdf).

 

Jim Sinclair: The Gold Panic, What To Expect In 2012, Last Man Standing & More

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 03:19 AM PST

Listen to the KingWorldNews broadcast here

Share

Spoiling for a Fight with Syria and Iran

Posted: 25 Dec 2011 02:19 AM PST

by Steve Lendman:

Syria remains the region's only independent secular state. Washington aims to replace its regime with a client one.

Libya's model was replicated. Months of externally generated violence followed. So far it's short of war. For how long is uncertain. Obama can't wait to wage another one to keep ravaging the world one country at a time.

Months of violence, sanctions and isolation have taken a toll. Deaths mount. No one knows how many. Western media reported numbers come from opposition forces, not independent observers. Nothing they say is reliable.

Assad's government says 2,000 security forces have been killed. "Terrorist gangs" are blamed. Whatever the actual number, they've been many. Heavily armed insurgents are responsible. Conflict resolution isn't imminent.

Syria's economy deteriorates steadily. In 2011, its GDP collapsed 30% – from around $55 billion to $37 billion. Its currency also plunged from 47 to 62 to the dollar. Basic goods and services are in short supply. Heating and cooking oil are scarce. Electricity is on and off.

Read More @ SJLendman.Blogspot.com
at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)