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Saturday, December 24, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Silver Update

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:08 PM PST


Gold Price Set For Hyperbolic Increase

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 04:34 PM PST

by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney.com:

Molten gold I recently posted an article for GoldMoney showing how US True Money Supply (TMS) appeared to be growing at a hyperbolic rate, and that gold was also on a hyperbolic course. The difference between hyperbolic and exponential is a hyperbola's rate of growth increases with time, while exponential growth does not. Hyperbolic growth in the quantity of money ends with hyperinflation, while exponential growth can go on for ever. Both TMS and the dollar price of gold are pointing to a hyperinflationary outcome. This article explains why this might be so.

There are five apocalyptic engines pushing the growth in US money supply: they are the government's budget deficit, its debt trap, the financial condition of the banks, the delusion of Keynesian solutions, and lastly simple compounding arithmetic.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com


Why Hold Gold In Deflation?

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 04:28 PM PST

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:

First off, happy holidays. I hope this email finds you in good health and cheer.

Down here in Chile, I intend to spend the weekend (and most of next week) doing absolutely nothing but reading, relaxing, and riding horseback with friends around our new 1,000+ acre farm. I'm excited that many readers will soon be joining me.

Personally I'm not much for the holidays. The last two months of the year (starting with Halloween) feel a lot more like forced consumerism– people buying useless trinkets with money they don't have for the sake of others they hardly know, or for close friends who simply don't care.

I prefer to opt-out of the whole nonsense and simply tell the people I care about that they're important to me. On that note, I'm truly grateful for our daily conversations and the many wonderful relationships that this letter has brought.

Read More @ SovereignMan.com


Will The Coming Economic Collapse Tear America Apart!

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 04:03 PM PST

My views on whether the coming economic collapse will united the American people or tear them apart. I also talk about how I think relationships and communities will transform after the collapse. I address the issue of millions of drug-dependent Americans losing access after the collapse, the care of the elderly and sick. Read more....


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

BaNZai7's SuBPRiMe CHRiSTMaS CaRoL

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 04:01 PM PST

A SuBPRiMe CHRiSTMaS CaRoL

(PaRT I)

SUBPRIME CHRISTMAS
.

E-Bernank Scrooge lived all alone in an old house. The yard was very dark and scary that night and when Scrooge wanted to unlock the door, he had the feeling that he saw John Maynard Keyne's face there.

This was rather spooky, but Scrooge was not frightened easily.

"Bah Munger," he said, opened the door and walked in. He locked himself in, however, which he usually didn't do. But then he felt safe again and sat down before the fire.

Suddenly, Scrooge heard a noise, deep down below, as if somebody was dragging a heavy chain. The noise came nearer and nearer, and then Scrooge saw a ghost coming right through the heavy door.

It was Keynes' ghost, and his chains were long; they were made of cash-boxes, keys and heavy purses.

"Who are you?" said Scrooge

"In theory I am your PhD ghost partner, John Maynard Keynes."

"But why do you come to me now?"

"I must wander through the world and I wear the chains because I was a naive old PhD fool in life.

I only cared about fanciful money printing theories but not about the people around me.

Now, I am here to warn you.

You still have a chance, E-Bernank.

Three spirits will come to you. Expect the first tomorrow, when the NYSE bell tolls open."

When he had said these words, Keyne's ghost disappeared; and the night became quiet again.

E-Bernank Scrooge went straight to bed, without undressing, and fell asleep immediately.

PART II

When E Bernank Scrooge awoke, it was still very foggy and extremely cold, and there was no noise of people on Wall Street.

Keynes' ghost bothered him.

He didn't know whether it was a dream or not. Then he remembered that a spirit should visit him at the opening NYSE bell.

So instead of having a Brazilian butt, head and back wax at the Federal Reserve barbershop, E-Bernank Scrooge decided to lie awake and wait what to see what happens.

Suddenly, the NYSE opening bell struck. Light flashed up on his trading screen and a small hand drew back the curtains of his bed.

Then E-Bernank found himself face to face with the visitor. It was a strange figure – like a child: yet not so like a child as like an old decrepit Randian fool.

"Who, and what are you?" E-Bernank Scrooge asked the ghost.

"I am Maestro the Ghost of Busted Bubbles Past. Rise and come with me."

The ghost took Scrooge back in time, to a place where E Bernank Scrooge studied as a young PhD candidate. There Scrooge could see his younger self playing foolish market equilibrium games with other delusional central banker wannabes.

They were cheerfully running around a cheap imported Chinese Christmas tree; and although they were hopelessly naive in their theoretical assumptions, they had lots of geek fun.

The spirit also took E-Bernank Scrooge to a money printing factory where Scrooge was an apprentice.

Scrooge saw the merry Christmas Eve they spent on the printing presses with his boss Mr Fuzzidice and his family. There was food and music and dancing and everybody was happy.

Then the spirit took Scrooge to yet another place. Scrooge was older now. He was not alone, but sat by the side of a beautiful young girl. There were tears in her eyes.

"It is sad to see," she said, softly. "that yet another moron has displaced me – the love of fools gold. Your heart was full of real gold once, but now …? I think it is full of QE crap. Fiat fraud begets fraud...swindle begets swindle...error begets error and the whole cycle soon becomes woebegotten.

May you be happy in the lunatic path you have chosen."

"Spirit," said Scrooge, "show me no more. Take me home. Why do you torture me?"

"One shadow more," said the ghost.

They were in another scene and place; a room, not very large or handsome, but full of comfort. There was a happy group celebrating Christmas with all their warmth and heartiness. Scrooge recognized his former girlfriend. She was married now and had children.

Sweetheart said her husband with a smile, "I saw an old friend of yours this afternoon. E-Bernank Scrooge it was. I passed his office window; and as it was not shut up, and he had a candle inside, I could see him there. His QE plan to revive the economy is faltering miserably and there he sat alone. Quite alone in the world, I do believe."

"Spirit," said Scrooge in a broken voice, "Take me back! I cannot bear it any longer."

He struggled with the ghost to take him back.

And finally Scrooge found himself in his own bed again. He was very exhausted and sank into a heavy sleep.

GHOST OF BUBBLES PAST

 

PART III

E-Bernank Scrooge woke up in the middle of a snore, just before the CNBC midday report. He sat up in his bed and waited for the second ghost to come.

EBENEZER BERNANK

. .

 

And there it was – the Ghost of Never Ending Banksta Presents. It had a curly brown toupee, sparkling eyes and it wore a simple greenback robe with white fur. Its feet were bare as the theoretical justifications for it's nauseating bloviations. It wore a holy bailout wreath and thick glasses.

CHRISTMAS PRESENT
.

The ghost took Scrooge to his former partner Hank Paulson's house – a not too shabby poor little 12 bedroom penthouse. In the kitchen you could see Mrs Paulson screaming at the maids preparing Christmas bailout dinner. Her spawn were cheerfully running around playing hide and go swindle.

Then the door opened and Hank came in with Tiny Timmah upon his shoulders.

Tiny Timmah was Hank's dumbest protege. The only government salaried employee in the family. He bore a little crutch and had a noose around his neck.

"On our way home, Tiny Timmah told me that he hoped the people saw him in the Harvard Club, because he was a very very very important government employee.

It might be pleasant to them to remember on Christmas Day, who made Bankstas rich and stroked that blind fool Obama to sleep." Hank's voice trembled when he said this.

 SUCK IT UP
.

 

Then the Christmas bailout dinner was ready, and everyone sat down at the table. As the Paulson's were very very very very...very poor by Forbes billionaire standards, it was not much they had for Christmas bailout dinner.

But still everyone was joyful and you could feel that they all had the Bailout Spirit in their hearts.

"A Merry Christmas to all Bankstas my dears! God bless them. Let the rest suck it up and cope!" said Hank.

"God bless Bankstas, each and every one of em!" said Tiny Timmah.

TINY TIMMAH

He sat very close to his mentor's side upon his little stool. Hank held his little hand, as if he feared to lose him.

"Spirit," said Scrooge, who felt sorry for the feckless moron, "tell me if Tiny Timmah will keep his job."

"I see an empty Treasury Secretary seat," replied the ghost, "and a noose with Timmah's name embroidered on it. If these shadows don't change in the future, the happy moron will get lynched and hung with his chestnuts roasted over a Main Street open fire."

This made Scrooge very sad for a nano-moment, but the spirit went on and took Scrooge to His best friend Lloyd Blankfein's penthouse at 15 Central Park West.

CC

 Lloyd and his slimy friends had a very cheerful party and played squidilious games like suck the buck, subpenny the client and schtup the Kraut banker.

E-Bernank Scrooge really enjoyed their celaphopodic party and wanted to stay for another while but in a second it all faded and Scrooge and the spirit were again on their travels.

They visited many homes in fraudclosure: they saw rich Wall Street financiers and Bankstas who were glad to have QE2 and wanted more in the form of QE3; PIIGS in foreign lands who were close to bankrupt but saved by the ECB bailout clock, poor common people whose bank accounts shrunk smaller every day – all because of the spirit of QE+N..., can-kick-onomics and moron hazard.

Suddenly, E-Bernank Scrooge noticed something strange about the ghost. Two children-like figures were at the ghost's feet – a boy and a girl. But, they looked old and dreadful, like little monsters.

Scrooge was shocked.

"Spirit, are they your creatures?" Scrooge asked.

"They are Wall Street's creatures," said the spirit "The boy is Want, The girl is Want More. Cherish them both, but most of all beware this girl" said the spirit.

"Have they no place they can go?" asked Scrooge.

"There are no prisons for Bankstas just like there no Chinese workhouses for the unemployed?" the spirit turned on Scrooge with his own words.

The NYSE bell struck the close.

The Ghost of Neverending Banksta Presents disappeared.

And at the last stroke of the bell, Scrooge saw the third ghost coming towards him.

PART IV

GHOST OF CRASHES
.

"Slowly and silently the ghost came nearer. It was very tall and wore a deep black piece of clothing, which covered its whole body and left nothing of it visible but one outstretched hand holding a stinking cigar stub.

Are you the Ghost of Crashes Yet to Come?" asked E-Bernank Scrooge, "I fear you more than any other spirit."

The ghost did not say a word, and Scrooge was really scared.

They wandered through lower Manhattan past OWS stragglers at Zuccotti Park and Scrooge heard some men in Guy Fawkes masks talking about a Central Banksta who had jumped.

E-Bernank knew the men and wanted to find out, whom they were talking about. But the spirit moved on.

They next stopped in a swanky uptown area where many pinstriped thieves and liars lived. They had stolen things with them and made fun of the person who once owned those things.

"Ha, ha!" laughed a woman, "He threw everyones money out of the chopper when he was alive, to profit us even more when he was gone! Ha, ha, ha!"

After that, the ghost led Scrooge through streets that were familiar to him; and as they went along, E-Bernank Scrooge looked here and there to find himself, but nowhere was he to be seen.

They entered poor poor poor Hank Paulson's penthouse and found the mother and the Paulson spawn browsing Zero Hedge.

Quiet. Very quiet. The noisy Paulsons were as still as statues.

When Hank came in, the children hurried to greet him.

Then two young Paulsens got upon his knees and laid their little cheeks against his face as if to say, "Don't mind it, father. Don't be sad."

"You went to Maiden Lane today?" said his wife.

"Yes, my dear," returned Hank. "I wish you could have gone. It would have you good to see how well guarded the place is.

But you'll see it annually. I promised him that we would walk there every April Fools Day in his honor.

My little, little Timmah." cried Hank. "My little captive moron."

He broke down in tears. He couldn't help it. If he could have helped it, he and his Banksta loving protege would have been farther apart perhaps than they were.

The ghost moved on and took E-Bernank Scrooge to Trinity Church graveyard.

The spirit stood among the graves and pointed down to one.

E-Bernank Scrooge slowly went towards it and following the ghost's finger read upon the stone "The Great Asset bubbles of QE".

"Spirit!" E-Bernank cried, "hear me. I am not the money printing PhD fool I was!

I will not be the Central Banksta I must have been so far! Why show me this if I am past all hope? Good Spirit, I will honour austerity in my heart, and try to keep it all the year.

I will live in the past, the present, and the future. The spirits of all three shall be within me. I will not ignore the lessons that they teach. Oh, tell me that I may change my fate so I may adorn the cover of Time Magazine yet again!"

VISION OF A FOOL

Full of fear, Scrooge caught the spirit's hand. But the spirit suddenly changed – it shrunk and faded and finally turned into a giant foreclosure sign post...

And the calendar said December 25, 2011.....


Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Mixed on the Week

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 04:00 PM PST

Gold climbed to as high as $1613.63 in Asia before it chopped back lower in London and New York, but it still ended with a gain of 0.16%. Silver slipped to as low as $28.898 by early afternoon in New York before it bounced back higher, but it still ended with a loss of 0.17%.


By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 23

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 03:48 PM PST

COMEX combined commercial futures traders least net short silver in a decade.  See remarkable chart below.  

HOUSTON --  Just below is this week's closing table followed by the CFTC disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) recap table for the week ending December 23, 2011.  We also add a remarkable graph of the lowest combined commercial net short position for COMEX silver futures since December 4, 2001 (lowest in a decade). 

20111223-Closing-Table

If the images are too small click on them for a larger version.

Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by Monday evening, December 26.  Please also note a larger than normal number of changes and new notations in our linked Vulture Bargain (VB) and Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest (VBCI) charts.  We intend continue these unusual notations until tax loss selling season is officially over next week.  We have enjoyed a number of "hits" in our lower-than-low bid ladders, but we have to note that some of the issues are already firming and quite a few are beginning to see bids filing in underneath.  Several saw material moves to the upside this week as well, although not aggressively yet. 

 
Continued…


Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT)

In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.  All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

20111223-DCOT

(DCOT Table for Friday, December 23, for data as of the close on Tuesday, December 20.   Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.)  

Once again, note the record high net long position for the Swap Dealer commercial traders in silver futures of 17,988 contracts net long on the COMEX.   That is in part why the combined commercial net short position for silver futures (the legacy COT report) shows a remarkably low commercial net short position. 

COMEX Silver Commercial Net Short Position Lowest in Ten Years 

As silver fell $1.21 or 3.9% COT reporting Tuesday to Tuesday, the COMEX combined commercial traders reduced their collective net short positioning (LCNS) by a very large 4,940 contracts or 25%, from 19,765 to 14,825 contracts net short.  This is the lowest combined commercial net short positioning in silver futures since December 4, 2001 (13,179 contracts then) with silver then trading at $4.20 the ounce. 

20111223-Commercial-Net-Short-Silver
 

Combined COMEX large commercial net short positioning (LCNS) for silver futures, net of spreads.  Source CFTC for COT, Cash Market for silver. 

*** We will have more in the linked technical charts for Vultures by Monday evening.***  

20111221-Xmas


Why Gold, Why Now!

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 01:05 PM PST

In an interesting note the National Association of Realtors (NAR) corrected its estimates of existing home sales today (December 21st), and 3.54 million previously reported home sales vanished, in revision, since January 2007. Read More...



Financial Advisor/Planner Advisory Alert #2 on Gold

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 12:30 PM PST

If you are tired of spending hours each week surfing the net or even visiting your up-to-now favourite financial site looking for articles that are extremely informative, relatively brief and very well-written, then go no further than munKNEE.com. Here is a sampling of articles posted on the site this past week related to what is happening in the gold market and what the future holds for its price. Words: 1028 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com [B](Your Key to Making Money!)[/B] searches for the latest articles of substance to be found on the internet each day and then presents them in an edited and abridged fashion to provide the reader with a fast and easy read. Also of major merit is the “Related Articles” section under each article that provides titles, introductory paragraphs and hyperlinks to such related articles to provide for as much additional insight into the topic of interest as you have time for without having to search elsewhere. Who in the world is c...


Capital Account: Max Keiser, America Runs the “Special Olympics for Financial Fraud” (12/23/11)

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 10:52 AM PST

from CapitalAccount:

US congress today approved an extension of the payroll tax cut for two months…putting off a tax increase for millions of workers. So, after much partisan politicking, they did it — saving face for the moment, but could it hurt their stock price headed into the 2012 elections? You heard me right. We'll talk about the political derivatives market a Chicago exchange is betting on. Would it be a continuation of a climate on wall street that encourages special treatment that our guest, fiancial journalist and inventor of the virtual specialist technology, Max Keiser, calls "the special olympics for financial fraud." And speaking of derivatives, those bets added fuel to the fire that engulfed the financial markets in 2008…most famously seen in the explosion and bailout of AGI (backdoor bailout of the big banks like goldman sachs, jp morgan, bank of america, etc.). More recently, MF Global customer money used to trade on these exchanges went missing. So where do futures exchanges come from and where have they gone wrong? From Ancient Greece to MF Global we'll break it down. And, heading into 2012 — will it be a happy new year for the US economy? Maybe not. Economists predict sluggish 2 percent growth, an economy held down by housing troubles, government budget cuts, and a lousy job market. That didn't stop hoards of people from lining up at malls and waiting all night for a chance to buy the 175 dollar "IT" Air Jordans. We'll show you what happened.


The Daily Market Report

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:52 AM PST

Despite Correction, Gold Poised to Register Another Solid Performance in 2011

Bar1
23-Dec (USAGOLD) — Gold is consolidating just above the $1600 level going into the Christmas holiday. The last London gold fix of 2010 was $1405, so barring any dramatic price changes in the last week of the year, the yellow metal is on-track for yet another double-digit gain of about 14%.

That's pretty impressive given the dramatic delveraging sell-off from the 1920.50 record high we saw in September, which prompted all manner of commentary proclaiming the end of gold's decade-long rally. More recently — amid another bout of deleveraging associated with rising uncertainty about the fate of European Union — the yellow metal retested the September low at 1534.06 along with important channel support. While much was made of the technical damage done by the recent move below the 200-day moving average, gold continues to display good resilience, underpinned by solid fundamentals.

Monthly Gold Chart

Daily Gold Chart

Those supporting fundamentals are unlikely to change anytime soon as the world continues to seek solutions for an overwhelming level of debt and anemic growth prospects. Thus far, the focus remains on creating more of what is arguably to primary source of the problem. Debt.

Of course someone needs to buy that debt, so we have also witnessed unprecedented — and in some instances "unlimited" — liquidity pumps to perpetuate the now institutionalized game of "hide the debt." I don't think that anyone really believes that more debt is really the answer to our global debt crisis, but in staving off a complete economic catastrophe several years ago with massive deficit spending and liquidity schemes, the United States effectively set the tone. Actually, the US was simply following the example set by Japan more than 20-years ago; drive interest rates to zero and hold them there by printing currency and buying bonds with it.

In fact, Japanese debt is fast approaching ¥1 quadrillion! That rather ominous benchmark is expected to be surpassed by the end of Japan's fiscal year in March. The BoJ's balance sheet is a startling ¥138 trillion. Meanwhile the Fed's balance sheet has contracted in recent months, but is still in excess of $2.7 trillion. But perhaps most troubling is the expansion of the ECB's balance sheet. Despite their persistent assurances that quantitative measures simply aren't an option, the ECB's balance sheet has grown by nearly a third, approaching €2.5 trillion. Hey Mr. Draghi, if you're not engaged in QE, explain that exploding balance sheet.

There are policymakers in Europe, including ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, that favor true — or at least un-obscured — quantitative easing by the ECB to prevent another recession in Europe. Imagine the implications for the central bank's balance sheet if the objections are ultimately circumvented.

Late in December, the ECB unleashed a wall of money, €489 bln ($638 bln) in 3-year LTROs to 523 eurozone banks. The positive reaction to all this new liquidity was very short-lived. The euro remains under pressure and eurozone spreads have widened back out.

As the FT's Gillian Tett pointed out in a recent column, the hope was that the banks would use this abundance of cheap ECB money to buy European sovereign debt, much in the same way that US banks plowed the proceeds from mortgage backed securities sales to the Fed into US Treasuries. Basically, the private sector ends up financing the government with funds provided by the government. Being in the middle of this financing cycle results in a potential profit bonanza for the banks.

ZIRP and liquidity. Liquidity and ZIRP. From here to eternity…

There are growing rumblings that the Fed is about to extend their ZIRP guidance from mid-2013 out to 2014 and potentially beyond. I'm sure when the BoJ launched their quantitative measures they were expected to last maybe a couple of years. Here it is 20 some years later and Japan still has 0% interest rates. Do you suppose this is our fate as well?

Some of the major financial firms are predicting lofty average gold prices for the coming year: Goldman Sachs $1810, Barclays $2000 and UBS $2050 to name just a few. We maintain that the long-term uptrend in gold is protected as long as we remain in a negative real interest rate environment. This in fact seems all-but assured for quite some time. On top of that, the ongoing expansions of debt, monetary bases and central bank balance sheets, along with broadly positive supply/demand dynamics — highlighted by robust investment and central bank demand — conspire to underpin gold as well in the new year.

On behalf of everyone here at USAGOLD – Centennial Precious Metals, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a most prosperous 2012.


Twas the Friday Before Christmas

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:41 AM PST

Twas the Friday Before Christmas

Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World

Really guys! 

Don't we all have something better to do than watch the markets today?

Even the crooks at the NYMEX are going home at 1:30 pm, sacrificing an entire hour of losing money to us to be with their strippers. That's right we OWNED those people yesterday, hitting play after play on the oil Futures, all based on our very simple premise that if the crooks at the NYMEX want to pretend they want to buy a barrel of oil for $100 - we are very happy to promise to sell it to them! 

Over and over they pretend to want to buy oil at or near $100 and over and over, as soon as we (real people) start accepting their offers, they quickly dry up and retreat.  

This is how you beat the scam artists, call them at their game.  

At 3:00 am this morning, they jammed oil up to $100.23 and at 3:51, in Member Chat, we were able to jump in and short the oil Futures (/CL) at $100 and by 5:30 we were out at $99.60. That may not seem like a lot but, at $10 per penny per contract - it buys a lot of Egg McMuffins! 

As I'm writing (7:35 am), we caught another run up to $100 and already it's back to $99.66 on fake, Fake, FAKE trading. Yes, they are faking it.  ALL THE TIME. It's a SCAM - Oil trading is a scam, a lie, a con - and it's played on the American people every single day and no one does a thing to stop them.  

Screen shot 2011-12-23 at 1.17.21 PM
Do they REALLY want to have 252M barrels of oil delivered to Cushing, OK in February? No, of course not. Aside from the fact that Cushing can only physically handle, if it were empty (which it is not) 40M barrels a month - we are, in fact, EXPORTING oil products out of America as our usage of oil is down 10% from last year (see chart in yesterday's post).  DESPITE a 10% reduction in refiner output, which helps to create an artificial shortage by the US energy cartel so they can charge the American public much more for less - we still are at RECORD levels of oil and product storage in this country.  

So why do the NYMEX traders pretend to want to buy February (front-month) oil for $100 a barrel when December 2014 barrels are trading at $91.37?  Because the front-month pricing determines what US consumers pay at the pump and even if the traders take a $10 loss on 250M barrels ($2.5Bn), that is just a drop in the bucket compared to the relentless price gouging at the pumps committed by the Evil Corporations that employ those traders.  

Americans consume 11Bn gallons of gasoline a month along with 5Bn gallons of distillates and 7Bn gallons of other products. Last year (when we consumed 10% more), a gallon of gas was selling for $2.98 and now it's $3.23, up .25 - that may not seem like a big deal but multiply that by 23Bn gallons and you have $5.75Bn of excess profits (and that's giving them that $2.98 is "fair" in the first place) stolen from the American people EVERY MONTH. And don't worry about the oil cartel - they aren't losing $10 a barrel at the NYMEX, maybe a dollar or two on average but worth every penny of $500M to have an excuse to charge consumers an extra $5Bn each month, right?  

From The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market:

The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market

The underlying problem in the oil market and in the broader market in this country is that ordinary Americans are now seen as a resource to be exploited by those who are in power – by the wealthy and by those with political influence. We're seeing Washington and Wall Street working so closely together that you really can't tell the difference between them anymore. The figureheads of each like to go back and forth between both locations, picking jobs, then switching and going back again. The government officials we are trusting and paying to look out for Americans are using those positions to get really nice, high-paying jobs in private-sector places, including Wall Street, that are effectively being used as bribes. - Leah Goodman, The Asylum

Last night, the White House finally forced Boehner and his Congressional posse to extend the payroll tax cuts (and Boehner's quote: "Why not do the right thing for the American People, even though it's not exactly what we want" is sure to be the official Republican slogan for 2012!) of $140Bn and NO ONE denied that $140Bn is a lot of money yet NO ONE does anything about the $400Bn PER YEAR that consumers are now paying for oil ABOVE what they paid just 2 years ago.  

What's really sickening about being ripped off for $400Bn a year isn't just the 10,000,000 $40,000 jobs that $400Bn a year represents and it's not the $400Bn boost to consumer spending, not even counting the potential new wage earners, that would go to industries that actually do create jobs in this country - it's the fact that at least half of the $400Bn that the crooks at the NYMEX are stealing from us every year ($2,850 per tax-payer) is being sent overseas and tens of Billions of those dollars go to fund the very people who are killing our troops overseas as well as forcing us to spend countless hundreds of Billions of Dollars more to defend ourselves against people who buy our own weapons with our money to use them against us.  And then, THEN THEY USE THE WARS AS A REASON TO RAISE THE PRICE OF OIL - MADNESS!  

So Merry F'Ing Christmas to all the Corporate crooks and their pet politicians, who are selling this Nation and its once-proud people down the river to line their own pockets. Forcing people to overpay for necessities like food, fuel, housing and health care has created the largest wealth gap in recorded history for a developed nation.  Our Gini Score (income inequality) of 41 is certainly better than Botswana's 60 but a far cry from Canada or Japan's 25.  Even Bangladesh scores a 31 while our neighbors in the low 40s include China, Congo, Cambodia, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Mother Russia.  

Even Pakistan manages to score in the low 30s because, they may be poor, but the top 1% don't have all the money.  Our top 1% have 40% of the money - that's pretty bad - that IS NOT SHARING!  Isn't Christmas supposed to be all about sharing? Unfortunately, as sickening as these statistics are, they are getting worse. Our score of 41 was last officially measured in 2000 but the estimates are that things in the US have gotten 10% worse (or better if you are in the top 1%) since then and our score is now 45 - one of the 10 worst on Planet Earth!  

Or, if you are in the top 1% - one of the 10 best, right?  

Go ahead, ask any warlord in Zimbabwe (rank 50) or Congo (47) and they will tell you that NOTHING needs to change.  It's the greatest country in the world when you are the one at the top - just like America!  

Click here for more charts and graphics on America's plutocracyPrinceton political scientist Larry Bartels studied the voting behavior of US senators in the early '90s and discovered that they respond far more to the desires of high-income groups than to anyone else. By itself, that's not a surprise. He also found that Republicans don't respond at all to the desires of voters with modest incomes. Maybe that's not a surprise, either. But this should be: Bartels found that Democratic senators don't respond to the desires of these voters, either.  At all!

It doesn't take a multivariate correlation to conclude that these two things are tightly related: If politicians care almost exclusively about the concerns of the rich, it makes sense that over the past decades they've enacted policies that have ended up benefiting the rich. And if you're not rich yourself, this is a problem. First and foremost, it's an economic problem because it's siphoned vast sums of money from the pockets of most Americans into those of the ultrawealthy. At the same time, relentless concentration of wealth and power among the rich is deeply corrosive in a democracy, and this makes it a profoundly political problem as well.

Whoever loves money never has money enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with his income. This too is meaningless. -  Ecclesiastes 5:10

Have a very Happy Holiday, 

- Phil

Check out Phil's Stock World here >


Recession Crazes

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:37 AM PST

Adam Hamilton December 23, 2011 2973 Words Recession is a four-letter word in the financial markets, striking terror into the hearts of everyone. And if reports since August are to be believed, there is a recession hiding behind every tree. For a myriad of reasons, economists have argued we are due to plunge into the next one any day now. But speculators and investors have to understand how recession talk is spawned, sometimes leading to recession crazes. Often economists revel in obscuring what they are discussing so they can sound learned and wise to laymen. But recessions are simple and easy to understand. A recession is simply a shrinking economy. And an economy is the total market value of all the goods and services produced within a given country during a year. Every last dollar you earn and spend, in addition to everyone else's, adds up to the economy. If we collective...


Paul Brodsky - Gold Could See Five Digits in 2012

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:23 AM PST

On the heels of legendary trader Jim Sinclair's interview regarding the current panic in the gold market, today KWN wanted to speak with the firm that is calling for $10,000 gold to get their take what readers should be focused on at this point. Paul Brodsky, who co-founded QB Asset Management Company, had this to say to KWN readers globally, "I think it's important to keep gold in perspective when we look at gold and how much central banks own vs what is out there in the private sector. It totals less than 20%. Yet, clearly, treasury ministries around the world and central banks that control the flow in the stock of global currencies continue to hold gold and are becoming net purchasers of gold."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:22 AM PST


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Mining Boom in Quebec

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 08:04 AM PST

While many jurisdictions are working hard to prevent mining or mineral exploration, the province of Quebec is encouraging it. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Alain-Jean Beauregard, founder of Geologica Inc., a geological consulting firm based in Val-d'Or, talks about the shining future of gold mining in Quebec.


The Stocking Stuffer Issue

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:49 AM PST

Dave Gonigam – December 23, 2011

  • A pre-holiday edition of The 5, sprinkled with a few "gifts"
  • Jim Nelson on the one sure thing coming out of the payroll tax tug of war in Washington
  • Can you handle volatility? Rick Rule's 2012-13 outlook for precious metals
  • Handicapping who's leaving the euro… the Christmas present no one will receive… Canadians sound off about the Keystone pipeline fracas… and more!

With 11 days before the Iowa caucuses, seven out of 10 of Americans say they "can't wait" for the presidential campaign to be over already.

It's the day before a holiday weekend, and while Addison continues some well-deserved time away, your editor du jour still feels a bit guilty about the mega-downer of an issue we delivered the day before Thanksgiving.

So today, look for a few little holiday "gifts" sprinkled through the issue. They're not big gifts, especially coming from a publication you already get free; consider them tokens of our goodwill.

First gift: polling figures that perhaps will make you feel less alone.

The figures from Gallup speak for themselves:

Those percentages are identical, by the way, among both registered voters and the adult population at large.

Among voters in 12 "swing states" where the campaign is likely to be most intense, the "can't wait" contingent jumps to 75%.

Among people 65 and older — who've already seen more than their share of elections, thank you very much — the "can't wait" number jumps to 80%.

The number of voters registered with one of the major political parties has dropped 3.5% since the 2008 elections, according to research by USA Today.

The number of independent voters is up 1.7%.

"The pattern," says the colorful rag, "continues a decades-long trend that has seen a diminution in the power of political parties, giving rise to independents as Ross Perot and Ralph Nader and the popularity this year of libertarian Republican Ron Paul."

Congress proceeded to validate voter disgust this morning by passing an extension of the payroll tax cut. For two more months. Thus guaranteeing a rerun of this drama in February.

As half-measures go, this is about as half-fast as they get: What would be so hard about either letting it expire or passing it for 12 more months?

While the cable news pundits chatter about who won or who lost politically, "Truly, it's the future retirees who might take the largest hit," says our income specialist Jim Nelson.

"The bill is supposed to be funded through higher collectable fees for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two mortgage giants have been ordered to collect higher fees from lenders for repayment of loans." This will come out of the hide of nearly every homebuyer going forward.

"Total expense of the bill: $32.5 billion. Total expected revenue from these fees: $36 billion." And that's over a 10-year span!

"We'll see if that happens. But someday, this down-to-the-wire game Congress keeps playing with Social Security revenue will end badly."

That's why Jim continues to harp on the need to line up alternative sources of retirement income… and we continue to give him a platform to do so. One of his favorite strategies — a happy accident resulting from a little-known provision in a law Congress passed 25 years ago — is described in detail here. (Readers with more substantial assets might want to give this a look.)

Durable goods orders came in way above expectations this morning, according to the Census Bureau. Orders for goods expected to last three years or longer jumped 3.8% in November — twice the guess of the "expert consensus."

However, nearly all the increase was driven by transportation goods — especially civilian aircraft.

Take away aircraft and defense goods… and shipments are down the last three months, while orders are down two of the last three months.

Personal income and consumer spending both rose 0.1% last month, in the estimation of the Commerce Department.

The meager income gains were driven by rental income and dividends. Wages and salaries actually fell as payrolls in both the manufacturing and service sectors shrank.

The Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation is contained within this monthly report: "Core personal consumption expenditures" are up 1.7% year over year. That's right within the Fed's sweet spot.

New home sales ticked up 1.6% in November, continuing a weak growth curve in place since midsummer.

Prices of new homes, meanwhile, are down 2.5% year over year.

The stew of data has simmered into a mild rally as the trading week winds down. Major U.S. stock indexes are up about half a percent.

At 12,240, the Dow is back toward the high end of the trading range where it's been stuck since early August.

Gold is drifting toward week's end, the spot price currently $1,607. Silver is rallying modestly, but nowhere near enough to reclaim $30; at last check, the bid is $29.29.

"I think the gold price goes higher and the silver price goes higher over the next two years," says perennial Vancouver favorite Rick Rule, delivering another small gift, "but I think it goes higher in extremely choppy fashion."

"I think," Mr. Rule tells radio interviewer Eric King, "you are going to see some temporary solution to the problems facing the eurozone, in terms of public debts. When I say temporary, I really do mean temporary because those economies are overindebted. But you're going to see a bit of confidence returning to the system, which I think will be bad for the gold and silver prices."

"That is good for people who have a long- or intermediate-term interest in gold and silver because it gives you the opportunity to add to your positions at advantageous prices."

"For people who aren't good at dealing with volatility, it's going to be a rough couple of years. For people who are good at dealing with volatility, it's going to be a very good couple of years."

"A year, two years or three years from now," reflects our Dan Amoss, "the eurozone will consist of just a northern European 'core.'"

"This crisis is not the result of the PIIGS countries being unable to 'inflate their way out of debt'; it's the result of excessive government spending and bureaucratic red tape leading to sclerotic, uncompetitive economies that favor consumption over production."

Result: "The supply of both euro and noneuro paper money will keep growing in Europe through this restructuring process. The peripheral countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) will likely withdraw from the euro and reintroduce their own currencies."

We'll explore more of Dan's euro-scenario next week. He cautions, by the way, this outcome is not a lead-pipe cinch. Matters could change on a dime depending on, for instance, the outcome of February elections in Greece.

That's why he's developed a strategy to profit from euro-turmoil that's set to move big no matter the short-term noise. During the market meltdown of late 2008, he laid on a similar strategy good for 334% gains in a little over three months. The best time to move on it is now.

Or since the euro crisis isn't going way — sorry to say — you might wish to consider an array of strategies to protect and grow your wealth. That's why we're reopening membership to the Agora Financial Reserve.

It's lifetime access to darn near everything we publish… for a one-time price lower than you'd pay for one year's access if you signed up for our services individually. A full listing of the privileges and benefits of membership is available here.

And now for a musical interlude. Consider this another little "gift." Alas, the song happens to be about a present none of us will receive.

"As a Canadian who works in the Alberta oil patch," a reader writes, "I believe the best outcome for us was your government's poor decision to shelve the Keystone XL pipeline. Although pumping our unrefined oil through Nebraska and into Oklahoma City's 'refinery row' is a very simple and profitable business."

"The real profit, however, is in building our own refineries and pumping our own refined, value- added product through the Rockies and off to Asia."

"You see, with most of OPEC's oil being exported to the American ports, all of Asia is anxious to secure a refined product they can depend on. Who is more dependable than a Canadian, eh?"

"We as a country are beginning to realize that we do not need Oklahoma City to refine our oil. We can do it ourselves."

"For a while there, I was worried about the fruits of my people's labor being shipped away stateside for pennies on the dollar. Thanks to Obama and pals, our industry is being forced into adding value to our already valuable resources. This is a terrible outcome for Americans, but the best thing that could of happened to us Albertan oil workers."

"It's too bad," writes another Canadian reader, "that the USA, Canada and similar countries are being controlled more and more by single-minded radical environmentalists and leftistas. Those people don't really care about the environment — they just hate free enterprise and the thought of anyone making (gasp!) a profit — unless they are the ones making a profit."

"Now that the enviro-left has blocked new oil pipelines from Canada to the USA, Canada will sell oil to Asia — and get $10-30 per barrel more than what we got from the USA. We have been happy to help our good old friend (the USA) by providing reliable ethical oil at a discount price, but it looks like those days are over."

"Oh, well, at least the enviro-left will be happy that the USA will be buying more higher-cost oil from degenerates like Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, where women are treated like livestock, nobody cares about the environment the 99% have real reasons to protest and they absolutely HATE Americans."

The 5: Hold on. Part of the two-month extension of the payroll tax cut includes a requirement that the White House decide on the Keystone expansion within 60 days, rather than put it off for a year.

"It is a stinging defeat," says a Reuters analysis, "for environment groups that have lobbied fiercely against the Keystone extension, and comes little more than a month after the president had sought to take the heat out of the issue by postponing approval beyond the next election pending a review of alternative routes through Nebraska."

"As always, another interesting issue," a complimentary reader writes after yesterday. "The chart of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows a very interesting, if not disturbing, long-term trend line."

The reader even drew it for us. We put it in red to make it stand out…

"Does this have any significance or interpretation worthy of comment?"

The 5: Eek… Seems to speak pretty well for itself. Good catch!

"For what it is worth, I used to be an avid reader and subscriber to your publications, and while I consider The 5 Min. Forecast to be required daily reading, I doubt that I will ever repurchase or spend any more money with your good selves, because the vast majority of your output is now on video."

"I regret this move of yours to primarily video as I have never, and will never, watch one of these. It might be an unfair comment, but these appear to be 'geared up' to those who cannot gather enough brain cells in one place in order to read something. I am sure that those with poor eyesight, etc., will appreciate this, but still… I cannot shake off the thought that this is just more 'dumbing' down."

"When you can offer the CHOICE of watching and/or reading, I will reconsider. Until then, I am content to sit with my cash in my wallet and look elsewhere."

The 5: Tell you what: We have one more little "gift." For your holiday reading pleasure, here are text-only versions of some of our most popular research reports…

If you're already familiar with many of our services, you might wish to peruse our "full buffet" offering of the Agora Financial Reserve.

This too is in text form, so you'll have plenty of time to chew on it next week along with your leftover turkey sandwiches. Save this email and follow this link. Membership will be open throughout the holidays.

Enjoy!

Merry Christmas,

Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. U.S. and Canadian markets will be closed on Monday for the "official" observation of Christmas Day. The 5 returns on Tuesday.


COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - December 23, 2011

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:32 AM PST

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - December 23, 2011


Santa takes the S&P positive YTD

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:32 AM PST

The S&P ran right thru the 200D SMA, and not by coincidence the S&P is now in positive territory for the year.  There is an outside chance that we get a monster, no-volume, lift thru year end.  Come 2012, we'll find that Mr. Claus' present was coated in lead paint from a Chinese factory.  Europe is feeding the ducks with news flow, but it won't be enough to support the 100 S&P points we've been gifted since Thanksgiving.  That being said, GOOG is within 10 points of its 52W high, and could break higher as managers panic into 'defensive growth' to squeeze a few more basis points out of any lift to juice their YTD numbers. 

In small cap land, I'm watching the move in Odyssey Marine (OMEX) – as there looks to be some pressure on the shorts.  Given Craig-Hallum Capital's $5 target and multiple catalysts – this could be an epic squeeze.  For example, one recovery could result in excess of 4 tons of gold coins ( Page 37).   Seeking Alpha lays out some of these catalysts.  Very interesting to see how this plays out.

www.southofwallstreet.com


Morgan Stanley On Why 2012 Will Be The "Payback" For Three Years Of "Miracles" And A US Earnings Recession

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:26 AM PST

Yesterday, we breached the topic of the real decoupling that is going on: that between the macro and the micro (not some ridiculous geographic distribution of the US versus the world), by presenting David Rosenberg's thoughts on why Q4 GDP has peaked and why going forward it is energy prices that are likely to be a far greater drag on incremental growth than the preservation (not the addition as it is not incremental) of $10 per week in payroll taxes (which only affects those who are already employed), even as company earnings and profit margins have likely peaked. Today, following up on why the micro is about to return with a bang, and why fundamentals are about to become front and center all over again, albeit not in a good way, is, surprisingly, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who has issued his loudest warning again bleary eyed optimism for the next year: "Think of 2012 as the "payback" year….when many of the extraordinary things that happened over the past 3 years go in reverse. I am talking about incremental fiscal stimulus, a weaker US dollar, positive labor productivity, and accelerated capital spending." Said otherwise, 2012 is the year when everything that can go wrong in the micro arena, will go wrong. And this is why Morgan Stanley being bullish on the macro picture! As Wilson says, his pessimistic musing "tells the story for what to expect in 2012 assuming the situation in Europe doesn't implode. In other words, this is not the macro bear case." If one adds a full blown European collapse to the mix, then the perfect storm of a macro and micro recoupling in a deleveraging vortex will prove everyone who believes that 2012 will be merely a groundhog year (in same including us) fatally wrong.

Lastly, when it comes to predictions Morgan Stanley (which called the EURUSD short the hour Goldman put it on as a long) should be taken far more seriously than Goldman, which merely wants to be on the other side of its clients.

The complete very troubling forecast from Morgan Stanley:

With thin markets at year end, changes at the margin can have maximum impact on asset prices. This includes policies like the LTRO as well as the Taiwanese government directly buying stocks! Knowing this, many pundits are keeping the dream alive for a Santa Claus rally. Unfortunately, I think time has run out in 2011 and the best we can hope for at this point is to limp across the finish line without breaking any bones. Having said that, I think there is one more positive catalyst for 2011 that could lead to a final surge. The headline would read something like this: "Merry Christmas! Congress delivers gifts by passing full year payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits extension." No doubt, this would be good news for stocks since there is enough skepticism on Washington's ability to get anything done before year end. Of course, it could be bittersweet because it would also likely be the perfect rally to sell into and short.

 

Whatever the next few weeks brings, I think it's safe to say that everyone is sick and tired of trading headlines and trying to decipher the next statement/rumor surrounding Merkozy, central bank policies, Washington politics, etc. Whatever happened to getting paid for channel checks or betting on a unique product cycle that isn't appreciated by the market? Ironically, while all this meddling by the authorities has helped prop up  asset prices, it has also made it harder to trade and invest. In my view, this is one reason why volatility remains so elevated. According to our Quantitative and Derivative Strategies team, 5, 10, 22, and 60 day realized volatilities are all in the 26-29% range. This is unusual historically, as realized vol has typically fallen by this point in the year. It's quite possible this higher volatility has compressed multiples and raised correlations, both of which are counterproductive to central banks' objectives.

 

The good news is that the fundamentals are about to take front and center stage once again. The bad news is that it is likely to be negative. Specifically, there has been a distinct increase in negative earnings results, preannouncements and/or guidance…..ORCL, RHT, GIS, BBY, WAG, ACN, TIF, ANF, DRI, NTAP, TXN, XLNX, ALTR, AMZN, CRM just to name a few. This is very much in line with my thesis for 2012 that we are likely to avoid an economic recession in the U.S., but we are also very likely to experience an earnings recession. Importantly, consensus estimates do  not reflect this reality with bottoms up forecasts still modeling 10% EPS growth for the S&P500 next year and top down consensus in the +4-5% range. While it is a rare outcome to experience positive GDP and negative earnings growth in the same year, it is also just as rare to experience record margins in a world of 9% unemployment and lackluster organic revenue growth. Think of 2012 as the "payback" year….when many of the extraordinary things that happened over the past 3 years go in reverse. I am talking about incremental fiscal stimulus, a weaker US dollar, positive labor productivity, and accelerated capital spending. Exhibit 7 tells the story for what to expect in 2012 assuming the situation in Europe doesn't implode. In other words, this is not the macro bear case.

 

The first chart in Exhibit 7 (top left) graphically shows the real deterioration we are now seeing in earnings. I have discussed the rollover in earnings revision breadth many times in prior notes and now we are seeing it meaningfully hit the numbers. We looked at the 20-25 companies that that typically report prior to Alcoa (the official kick off to earnings season) and as you can see in the chart, the trend is disturbing and is  now showing outright misses in aggregate. For more details on this, see our Trading Insights out this morning. Second (top right) is just a simple leading indicator for the US ISM mfg index.

 

It is the y/y change in the S. Korean stocks market (KOSPI). As you can see, while US economic data has persistently surprised to the upside in 2H2011, this trend is likely coming to an end and will begin to rollover again in the new year, perhaps driven by the anniversary of last year's significant payroll tax cuts. God forbid if Congress doesn't pass the extension next week. Third (bottom left) is a chart showing the y/y change  in the US dollar (DXY) and then a "projected" y/y change assuming various scenarios for DXY over the next 6 months. As discussed here many times, the US dollar has been one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) drivers of SPX earnings growth. For the next 6 months we are potentially facing a much different currency environment that could shave as much as 5-10% off SPX earnings growth on its own. Finally, the last chart shows the relative strength of semiconductors (SOX Index) versus the absolute performance of the SPX. I like this because the SOX/SPX tends to lead the SPX by about 3 months and it suggests the next 3 months is likely to remain rough for US stocks broadly. Since Semis are ultra sensitive to growth, it really suggests that growth is going to struggle in the near term at least from a rate of change standpoint and versus expectations. All of this lines up with my conclusion that while everyone is feeling a bit relieved about the tail risk in Europe being taken off the table, we are about to get a reality check from the micro.


TF Metals Report: Christmas Eve Eve

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:24 AM PST

Here are your updated hourly charts. You can clearly see that both gold and silver have found some price stability in their current trading ranges.


Mining Boom in Quebec: Alain-Jean Beauregard

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:22 AM PST

The Gold Report: The province of Quebec where Geologica is based offers some of the best infrastructure and mineral exploration incentives of any state or province in North America. Why has Quebec embraced mining when so many other jurisdictions are working hard to prevent mining or mineral exploration at all? Alain-Jean Beauregard: Like forestry, mining has traditionally been a region developer in the province of Quebec. Native land issues have already been settled for large parts of the province. Mining is an important job creator—one of the most important in the province. It's good income for the province because of revenues from taxes. Quebec is happy to have mining companies in the province. The highest salaries are now in mining. Mining regions have the lowest unemployment in the province and a lot of young graduates are back from the larger cities to their families, to the great satisfaction of their parents. Also, a large world-class, web-accessible Quebec Ministry of Natural ...


Another great year for people who took our advice in 2003

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 07:00 AM PST

We went 90% silver and gold in 2003 and have stuck to our position since. We advise to stay the course for the next 5 – 10 years. Our $10,000 gold and $500 silver target is still on! Get some!!!


Fibonacci Supports Gold Market

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 06:58 AM PST

Morris Hubbartt Weekly Market Update Excerpt posted Dec 23, 2011 US Dollar Fibonacci Resistance Chart Analysis [LIST] [*]Money is being created worldwide, but not through work and investment. I’m referring to money printing. Assets are being held at above market value with accounting techniques, to protect bank balance sheets. This new “state of the union” requires ongoing money creation to maintain itself. [*]When the US government speaks of a strong currency, what they really mean is a competitive currency. The European crisis is causing a rally in the dollar and negatively affecting gold. [*]That very rally is making the United States even less competitive than it already is, and nothing significant has changed in regards to the US debt crisis. [*]Use the dollar rally as an opportunity to build your position in the ultimate currency, which is gold. [*]Do you believe that a crisis in Europe just solved Amer...


Jim Sinclair – The Gold Panic & What to Expect in 2012

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 06:44 AM PST

A clear sign that the gold market is moving into an outrageously oversold position


Guest Post: The Economic Solutions Of Vampires

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 05:59 AM PST

Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt-Market.com

The Economic Solutions Of Vampires

 

The vampire bat is a horrifying pig-nosed wart of a creature which feasts in a manner that, believe it or not, is a rather familiar scene to those of us who closely study alternative economics.  After erratically flittering about in the sinking evening sky, it targets the warmth of a sleeping farm animal and latches onto it with its claws.  Carefully, it inserts a fang into a vein dense region of the creature's body, and laps away at the blood.  Normally, the oblivious livestock are completely unaware and helpless to the attack.  The tiny parasite does not inflict an immediately mortal blow to its host, but over time, disease and physical debilitation result.  The vampire has destroyed the animal, and, pathetically, the animal has no idea. 

Just as in nature, the economic world has its own bloodsucking vermin in the form of banking elites which are a wretched drain on the whole of the human race.  Without their vicious and predatory presence, I envision a world so rapturously above and beyond what we wallow in today that it is impossible to describe.  The disgust many feel when considering the virulent feeding habits of the common mosquito or the slithering leech does nothing to compare to the utter gut churning revulsion I feel when studying the financial habits of banks like the Federal Reserve and the "too big to fails".  They are without a doubt the most malignant form of social cancer imaginable.

And yet, after nearly four years of ongoing fiscal exsanguination, a sizable portion of the American populace is still looking to these pests for economic comfort and reassurance, just like farm animals consistently grazing near the entrance of a vampire bat cave, as if it is a shelter from harm.  Worst of all is the willingness by which investors still, to this day, commit their savings and their livelihoods to the stock market meat grinder.  Let's be honest; the typical American daytrading investor is a complete moron.  They have absolutely no sense of the fundamentals of our financial structure nor the eccentric rules by which it operates.  They only have the faintest inkling of the functions of the highly manipulated stock market.  They foolishly believe that what little money they make today riding the wave of an illegitimate liquidity driven rally they will actually get to keep.  For them, stock investment is no different from buying a scratch-off lotto ticket at a hillbilly gas station; it is a cheap and tawdry game rife with failure but exciting to play, if only for a fleeting guilt addled thrill.

To be fair, they play because the game is indeed "rewarding", at least, initially.  The first taste is so sweet that it soils the plasma; the very skin of the cellular membrane of the financial mind becomes saturated.  It swells within the weakening heart of a culture, and overrides its sense of logic.  It makes us do terrible and stupid things, and we clasp our hands together and pray that it will never end.  But, of course, an ending is painfully inevitable.  The more we indulge, the more it takes down the road to satisfy us.  We become an addict nation, riding the chemical wave of a pharmaceutical roller coaster fed by the opiates of fiat and fantasy.

The bottom line; we are being drained of our lifeblood as a country.  However, the mainstream media is rife with talk of "recovery", and one might ask how this could be possible.  An overwhelming spectrum of solutions has been presented over the past 3-4 years, and each one has given the stock market a little push towards the green, so what's the problem?

The problem is, the actions taken by our government and banking elites have built the connecting strands of a spider's web, instead of a safety net. 

Let's examine some the most common solutions presented to the increasingly desperate American public and why these delusions have lulled us into the role of victim in the most elaborate monster movie of all time…

Centralization As a Solution To…Centralization…?

Europe's current disintegration is a perfect example of this strange and ultimately destructive policy.  The EU as an experiment is an utter disaster.  Once the jewel of the open border dynamic and a bastion of the "merits" of globalization, the economic union has been exposed as a kind of waxwork museum; a tourist trap curiosity filled with illusions of life, but rather hollow upon closer inspection. 

Half of the countries committed to the EU are burdened with liabilities well beyond the 60% debt to GDP ratio outlined in the 'Growth and Stability Pact'.  Some countries, including Greece, met few if any of the presented criteria for membership and were allowed to join anyway.  The only reason the system was able to function at all was due to the imaginary wealth of the toxic derivative framework which now no longer exists. 

The problem with globalization is that it requires assimilation; it demands that sovereign nations adopt the fiscal character of their neighbors in order to present the face of a single entity.  Of course, when these countries are unable to do this because of their cultural differences, or their incongruent economies, something has to be slapped together instead.  Artificially tying together societies by forcing them to financially harmonize is, in my view, a criminal act of collectivism.  Now that this crime is being unveiled for all the world to see, though, the corrupt governments and banking puppeteers of Europe have suggested even MORE of the same!  That's right…their solution to the collapse of the EU is a harmonization not just of finance, but of politics and law.  A single governing body which would dictate every nuance of the union.   

The claim that Europe was not centralized enough, and that this is what caused the breakdown, is absolutely preposterous.  Globalization makes a system inflexible and weak.  If any portion of that system fails, it sends shockwaves through the rest.  This is because centralization removes the protections of independently insulated structures and allows corrupt policy to spread like a plague.  As the economic situation grows more dire, the end result will always be a reduction in the common citizen's standard of living.  In harmonization, It is far easier to make everyone equally poor than it is to make them equally rich.  With a single, narrow minded leadership, especially one that is completely unaccountable to the people, the EU will become the most fragile makeshift empire in history, and a model for a global government that hopefully will never exist.

Print To Avoid The Pain…

I can't tell you how truly exhausted I am with the constant rehashing of bailout bills and cheap lending windows as if they have ever or will ever change anything.  Let's make this clear; Keynesian stimulus measures are useless.  They will always be useless.  Governments do NOT create jobs, they destroy them.  Central banks do NOT create wealth, they dilute it.  Quantitative easing and zero interest lending does NOT diminish debt, it displaces it; removing it from the shoulders of private corporate banking institutions where it belongs and dumping it in the laps of taxpayers.  I'll say it again; the debts created by major banks have not been paid.  They have been handed to you, and your children.  Forget the December Santa Rally and the temporary holiday job boost.  Nothing has changed since 2008.

The process of transferring private debt into public obligation is a tool of economic vampires.  The utility in this is obvious.  A program of wealth transference has the ability to prolong full collapse while at the same time giving the impression of stability.  The dollar itself characterizes this conflict.  The currency has been overprinted since the credit crisis began by some estimates in the ten's of trillions.  Not only has it been devalued to temporarily stave off a purging in the U.S., but now also in Europe.  And yet, the dollar index, which supposedly measures the Greenback's global value, has spiked.  We are lulled into a sense of safety by such arbitrary measurements, but our buying power is being subversively annihilated.  In less than a year's time, those who dove into the dollar as a safe haven will discover their bones picked clean by predatory banks and hidden flesh eating inflation.  Count on it…

Create A New Currency…

Globalists love currencies, as long as they aren't tied down by a commodity.  For central bankers, each fiat currency is a stepping stone to something more sinister.  They are disposable.  They are expendable.  Like toothbrushes.  Yes…even the dollar.  And in this rests the key to economic control.  A currency is a symbol of trade and labor; if you can create and destroy that symbol at will, then you can dominate trade and labor.  Through a mere piece of paper, you manipulate the very breath of social life.  No one should be given that kind of power without uncompromising transparency and constant public governance, but the Federal Reserve is free from both. 

The suggestion that we can solve our current financial despair with the formation of a whole new currency, or a global currency, is like suggesting to a slave that he would be much more free with a shinier set of chains.  Any solution that purports to undo the crisis by doing more of the same was probably devised by an economic vampire. 

This includes digital currencies like the failed "Bitcoin", which swagger about in the classy looking threads of technology and diversity while flashing us impromptu peace signs.  Digital currencies are a Star Trek theme park distraction, and just like any paper fiat currency, they make promises they cannot keep.  Any trade system that depends upon good faith in ones and zeros traveling across a network of machines that can be hacked or rendered useless by collapse is doomed.  We have already tasted the danger of digital through the debauchery of credit cards.  Why tempt fate even further? 

More Regulation And Control…

Regulation is not the problem in America's economy; the REGULATORS are the problem with America's economy.  The SEC is given thousands of potential investigations a year to pursue, but rarely do they ever follow through, and when they do, it's to throw the angry masses a Bernie Madoff or two; an act of insincere appeasement in light of much greater fraud.

Being that true free markets have not existed for at least a century, the insinuation that free markets are the root of the collapse is a bit absurd.  The guidelines for government oversight of business in the U.S. already exist; government has just refused to implement them.  Adding new restrictions to an already restricted market will change nothing.  Therefore, the only solution that makes any sense whatsoever as far as regulation is to wipe the slate clean entirely.  Remove the Federal Reserve, replace the SEC, and replace the current establishment leadership. 

I have heard it said that the philosophy of our economic system is the problem.  This is an ignorant cop-out.  The principals of free markets are not the issue; the men who abuse them and diminish them, on the other hand, are.  Anyone who suggests that we as a country focus our anger on the idea of the system rather than the men behind the misuse of that system is, without a doubt, an economic vampire. 

Lurking in the Shadows
...

The question of solutions is difficult, not because there aren't any, but because those that will actually succeed require pain, sacrifice, and incredible hard work.  Most people don't like to think about that sort of thing.  This is why global banks and their proponents have been able to maintain the recovery magic act for the past few years (just barely), and it is why the useless concepts they put forward are still given public consideration.  We WANT to be sold on the proposal of an easy way out.

One rule to never forget when considering any solution is to take into account who benefits most from its implementation, and who has to labor for its success.  If average people are forced to exert all the effort, and an elite few reap all the substantial benefits, this contradiction outweighs any assertion of practicality.  It is not worth our time, nor our energy, to shadowbox reality.  Unfortunately, this is all we have been doing as a nation since 2008.

The creeping terror that lay ahead is not the economic collapse, but the men who would use it to their favor.  The stakes are high.  With the NDAA and similar bills in place, fiscal distress is no longer just a matter of economics, but a matter of personal liberty.  Without a doubt, a collapse will be used as a rationalization for totalitarianism.  If we do not make the hard decisions now, and take it upon ourselves to construct our own localized economies separate and insulated from the mainstream, we will, indeed, find ourselves one day cowering in the dark of a long drawn night infested with fiends, and desperate enough to actually ask them for help.  They will be happy to give it, at a very bloody price…

 


Gold Tilts Towards a Short-term Move Up

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 05:32 AM PST

Why anyone would rather stuff their Christmas stockings with fiat currency than with physical gold is beyond understanding. To us "dash for cash" seems rash. There has certainly been very little Christmas cheer for gold bulls recently. The beating is tough, but it's not the first time we've experienced it, nor is it likely to be the last in a secular bull market that has still has years to run. Gold takes four steps forward and then three back. We just have to stay in the game.


The Perfect Heist: Why Government Theft Continues to Go Unnoticed

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 05:21 AM PST

Today, we doff our caps to the folks at the European Central Bank. They've pulled off the perfect heist.

The euro-feds have opened the valves…turned on the spigots…and let nearly a half trillion euros worth of liquidity flow directly into the very same banks that have proven they can't be trusted with a penny.

But that's how a zombie system works. The living give. The monsters get.

And since, at this stage of the credit cycle, the living don't have much to give, the feds turn on the printing presses.

Then, from whom does the money come?

Gotta come from someone, no?

That's right… When you borrow it, it comes from the people who lend it. When you tax it, it comes from the taxpayers. But whom does it come from when you just print it up?

Well, at first it appears to come from no one. Nobody reaches in his pocket and finds fewer dollars. Nobody's pocket has been picked. But how could that be? Nothing comes from nothing. You add a zero to a zero and you still have a zero.

And yet, the zombie banks now have 489 billion more euros in their vaults. That's what it said in yesterday's Financial Times.

"Banks snap up 489 billion euros in ECB loan offer."

This money certainly seems real. The banks can lend it. Spend it. Toss it out the window or down the drain. They can light cigars with it. They can use it to wrap gold coins before sending them out as Christmas presents.

Let's see, we saw an ad. Mercedes Benz CL class 2011-2012 autos are selling, in round numbers, for $100,000. With this money, you could buy about 6 million of them. Which is probably more or less what will happen to the money.

But what concerns us today is not where it goes but where it came from. Did it come from space? From another galaxy? No? Then, isn't all wealth on earth owned by someone? Yes? Then, it must have come from some humans somewhere on Earth.

But who?

Here's an answer: Each unit of currency represents a claim on resources. Now, there are enough new units to claim 6 million new Mercedes. We infer that people who had claims on them previously have less of a claim now, because there are only so many new Mercedes available. And since those claims arose from the value of the currency they earned and saved, we further infer that the value of the new money must have been stolen out of the value of the old money. What else can you call it but theft? People who had euros previously now have less purchasing power (at least theoretically). They never agreed to let their money be clipped. They never even knew what was happening to them.

But since we're in a Great Correction…and since Europe is entering a recession…and since recessions and corrections are basically deflationary (prices fall as demand eases)… the old currency holders aren't likely to notice…or raise a stink about it.

It may be larceny, but it's grand larceny. Heck, it's great larceny. The perfect heist. The poor victims don't even know they are victims. They have as much money in their pockets and bank accounts on Friday as they had on Monday. And if prices rise slightly, not one in a hundred will blame the ECB.

Meanwhile, over in the USA, the criminal gangs can't seem to get organized.

Late yesterday came a report that a deal had been struck to extend the payroll tax by 2 months. But a bigger problem is coming up. Just wait 'til next year. Here's Bloomberg with a full report:

Payroll Tax Tiff Times 25 Awaits Congress in 'Utter Dysfunction'

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — The brinksmanship in Congress over a payroll tax-cut extension may end up looking like a quaint disagreement by next December, when lawmakers must grapple with a fiscal policy debate at least 25 times more costly.

Unless Congress acts by the end of 2012, income tax cuts will expire, automatic reductions in defense and domestic spending will start and the alternative minimum tax will ensnare millions more taxpayers. The same Congress that can't find a way to extend the widely supported payroll tax cut beyond Dec. 31 will be seeking to bridge long-held ideological differences.

"The prospects are bleak," said Leonard Burman, a former Treasury Department official who teaches public affairs at Syracuse University in New York. "I've never seen such a high level of dysfunction in the 25 years or so that I've been paying attention to government."

The year-end 2012 series of deadlines on tax and spending policy stems from Congress's tendency to push problems into the future with temporary solutions. This year alone, lawmakers have flirted with a federal government shutdown three times, almost defaulted on the US debt for the first time in history and allowed aviation taxes to lapse for two weeks.

Trillions at Stake

The $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in potential spending cuts dwarf the $200 billion at stake in the current fight over the payroll tax cut and other provisions, including expanded unemployment insurance. Those items, if extended for another year, would expire at the end of 2012.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

The Perfect Heist: Why Government Theft Continues to Go Unnoticed originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.


Gold chart

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 05:15 AM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Gold is stuck in a broad trading range between $1550 on the bottom and $1750 on the top. In the abscense of any fundamental news, it will more than likely end the year within this range. ...


The Gold Panic and What to Expect in 2012

Posted: 23 Dec 2011 05:10 AM PST

Click here to listen to the audio interview…

With escalating fears from gold and silver investors around the world, including professionals, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair.  When KWN asked if he has ever seen this kind of fear and panic in the gold market, Sinclair responded, "Not in the first gold market (1970s), not in the gold market we are in now, not in the correction (in '08 & '09), which took us down after the first move through $1,000 and back under $800."

Jim Sinclair continues:

"The amount of discontent and bearishness among people who know better is enormous.  It's moved from bearishness to some form of anger.  (This is a) historical bottom, capitulation.  A clear sign that the gold market is moving into an outrageously oversold position, most certainly in anything that's a common share.

You must not allow your emotions to direct your decisions.  Your emotions will always be your best contrary indicator you have.  You have to examine the circumstances and ask whether or not the reasons why you've committed to something have changed.  And if they haven't changed, you simply need to buck up and go the course because you're right.

People are beginning to literally crack, defined as shifting their total focus to their emotions and away from their intellect.  I've seen emotionalism in areas where it doesn't belong, where it's never existed before.  I'm in total shock.

When I see people who have distinguished themselves under pressure, over years, let their emotions cloud their judgement, actually letting their emotions break over them like a tidal wave, it puts me in total shock….

Continue reading the Jim Sinclair interview on KingWorldNews.com…

Source: JSMineset

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