Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 4% on the Week
- Silver Update 12/02/11: Top 5
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 2
- How The U.S. Will Become a 3rd World Country (Part 2)
- Gold: Will it Go to $12,500 ? $24,000 ? or $39,000/ozt. ? by End of Decade? Here?s the Rationale for Each
- James Turk: The transAtlantic panic
- Currency swaps – the beginning of a 'solution'?
- Fed Dollar Swaps Over Time
- Gold Price Rose 3% This Week, it Must Pierce $1,750
- Gold at September-November Trendline
- How Statisticians Scam You
- Saving Gold
- SBM – Sweet Disposition – Seeks Loving Home
- Clearing Houses Are The Mechanism Of All Markets
- Kerry Lutz Interview with Gary Wagner – The Goldforecast.com – 12-2-11
- CME Hikes FX Margins: AUD, CAD, JPY, RMB Impacted
- Mortgage QE?
- Gold and Stocks Possibly on the Brink of Going Up
- New York Sun: Bernanke's forgotten footnote
- Second Biggest Dow Points Week Ever Ends On Weak Note
- Greg Weldon predicts the magic number for gold's breakout
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- Michael Kosares: For nine years gold has yielded 8.5% annually after inflation
- Is Gold Going to Hit $2000 By 2012?
- Kondratiev Is Alive And Well!
- Rubicon Minerals On The Move
- COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - December 2, 2011
- Gold Stocks Should Win Regardless of Economic Turmoil: Chen Lin
- Weldon - Here is the Key Level for a Massive Gold Breakout
- Fooled Again!
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 4% on the Week Posted: 02 Dec 2011 04:00 PM PST Gold climbed $18.41 to as high as $1762.31 by about 8:30AM EST before it fell all the way back to $1741.60 by late morning in New York, but it then bounced back higher in afternoon trade and ended with a gain of 0.12%. Silver rose to as high as $33.655 in early New York trade, but it then fell back off for most of the rest of the day and ended with a loss of 0.55%. |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 03:38 PM PST |
By the Numbers for the Week Ending December 2 Posted: 02 Dec 2011 03:20 PM PST HOUSTON -- Just below is this week's closing table followed by the CFTC disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) recap table for the week ending December 2, 2011.
Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday (18:00 ET).
In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.
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How The U.S. Will Become a 3rd World Country (Part 2) Posted: 02 Dec 2011 02:15 PM PST Submitted by Ron Hera of Hera Research How the U.S. Will Become a 3rd World Country (Part 2) (Part 1 found here) The United States is quickly coming to resemble a post industrial neo-3rd-world country. Unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, falling real wages and household incomes, growing poverty and increasing concentration of wealth are major trends in the U.S. today. Behind these growing problems are monetary inflation created by the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, federal government deficit spending and the dominant influence of "too big to fail" banks and large corporations in Washington D.C., which has altered the direction of law in the United States. To make matters worse, the U.S. government faces a historic fiscal crisis. High unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, low wages, widespread poverty, extreme concentration of wealth, unsustainable government debt, control of the government by international banks and multinational corporations, weak rule of law and counterproductive policies are defining characteristics of 3rd world countries. Other factors include poor public health, nutrition and education, as well as lack of infrastructure—factors that deteriorate rapidly in a failing economy. Apparently ineffective regulation and relatively little law enforcement action by the federal government in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown resulted in widespread speculation that special interests had taken priority over the rule of law. Critics have also charged that the federal government's policies threaten to eliminate what remains of the American middle class. Accelerating Concentration of Wealth In response to the economic downturn that began in 2007 and the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. federal government and the Federal Reserve resorted to a radically inflationary policy intended to save banks and to shepherd the U.S. economy through a recession. Instead, radically inflationary policies greatly increased the concentration of wealth. Under ordinary circumstances, monetary inflation has the effect of redistributing wealth in favor of those who receive newly created money first. The value of money is reduced as a function of the number of currency units in the economy but recipients of newly created money can spend it before it loses value. In a declining economy, however, the wealth redistribution effects of inflation are magnified. When the Federal Reserve or the federal government supports banks and financial markets through liquidity injections, bailouts, asset purchases, quantitative easing, etc., the lion's share of financial support, i.e., newly created money, is captured by the largest financial institutions and by the wealthiest 1% of Americans. Money printing skews the distribution of money over the economy while the value of money, i.e., the purchasing power of wages and savings, is reduced. The overall effect is a wealth transfer from proverbial Main Street to literal Wall Street. Looming Fiscal Crisis U.S. government debt and deficit spending have markedly accelerated over the past decade. For example, The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created and the U.S. military grew to 3 million active duty and reserve personnel, not including contractors. Since 2001, the U.S. spent approximately $1 trillion on military expansion while the total cost of the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has been estimated to exceed $3.7 trillion. Although the U.S. federal government remains in denial, the Congressional debt ceiling debate and subsequent U.S. credit rating downgrade on August 5, 2011 were only the tip of the iceberg. In fact, the United States faces a historic fiscal crisis. As of 2012, the majority of new federal government debt will stem from interest on existing debt. Treasury bond issues totaled $2.55 trillion in 2010, roughly 2x the federal budget deficit of $1.3 trillion. Artificially low U.S. Treasury bond yields, created by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2) programs and by its current "Operation Twist," only slow the rate at which the federal debt balloons. The U.S. federal government's fast growing debt is $14.94 trillion, approximately 100% of GDP. Additionally, future liabilities total $66.6 trillion based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP accounting) and using official data from the Medicare and Social Security annual reports and from the audited financial report of the federal government. 1. Medicare: $24.8 trillion The eventual insolvency of the U.S. federal government cannot be averted through any combination of taxes, budget cuts or realistic GDP growth. Inflationary policies, i.e., increasing deficit spending by the federal government and debt monetization by the Federal Reserve, would devalue the U.S. dollar and potentially trigger a hyperinflationary collapse of the currency. To stave off the inevitable, interim measures might include tax increases, exchange controls, nationalization of pension funds or other measures similar to those taken in 3rd world countries. Dominant Corporate Influence In a 2009 radio interview on Elmhurst, Illinois' WJJG 1530 AM, Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) explained that "…the banks—hard to believe in a time when we're facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created—are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place." Senator Durbin was unequivocal in saying that the federal government of the United States is controlled by banks. Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), had reached the same conclusion one month earlier in his widely read article The Quiet Coup. Johnson explained that the finance industry had effectively captured the U.S. government, a state of affairs typical of 3rd world countries. Corporate influence over the political process, as well as over the tax and regulatory policies of the United States, is at an all time high. The federal government is the largest single customer in the U.S. economy and, through taxation or regulation, the government can grant or deny market access to private companies and can either prevent or mandate the consumption of their products and services. As a result, virtually every large corporation in the United States seeks to win the government's business and to steer government tax policies and regulations in their favor. Naturally, politicians who accede to the wishes of particular corporations are given campaign funds to ensure their reelection. In the past decade, the amount of money spent on lobbying has more than doubled and there are currently 24 lobbyists for every 1 member of Congress. The interdependence of elected officials and the largest U.S. corporations reached a new high with the 2008 bank bailouts. The influence of private corporations and de facto industrial cartels (comprising the largest corporations in each major industry) over tax and regulatory policies creates significant economic distortions that ultimately compromise the sustainability and the stability of the economy. Ideally, the government would be an impartial referee, rather than an active business partner that overwhelmingly favors large businesses over small businesses, despite the fact that small businesses account for the vast majority of American jobs. Impact on the Rule of Law Corruption, cronyism and weak rule of law are typical of 3rd world countries. The United States exhibits a clear corporate influence over elections and legislation and, arguably, relatively little law enforcement action where large, legally well-equipped corporations are concerned. Reports of so-called crony capitalism have appeared in the U.S. news media, but the term "corruption" has been avoided, along with discussion of fundamental reforms. A cursory examination of legal developments over roughly the past decade evidences a pattern in which U.S. federal law systematically favors the largest financial institutions, as well as a paradigm in which financial institutions heavily influence both the regulations that putatively govern their activities and the laws that apply to consumers of their products and services. The financial crisis that began in 2008 and the subsequent response of the federal government appear to follow logically from prior legislative events:
Critics have alleged that, underlying the sub-prime mortgage meltdown that triggered the financial crisis in 2008 was rampant fraud. Fraud has been alleged at virtually every level from the assessment of property values and credit risk; to the loans themselves and to their securitization as MBS assets; to the ratings of MBS assets as AAA; to hedging or betting against MBS assets in the OTC derivatives market (perhaps including financial firms allegedly betting against MBS assets that they themselves created and sold to clients as AAA assets). After the crisis, a seeming pattern of fraud continued apparently unabated in the robo-signing foreclosure scandal where documents submitted to courts were falsified. Despite an avalanche of alleged crimes under existing federal law, no firm or individual of any significance in the financial crisis has yet been prosecuted. President Barack Obama said in October 2011 that the mortgage finance practices leading to the economic meltdown were "immoral, inappropriate and reckless … but not necessarily illegal." Since fraud is, in fact, illegal, critics claim that the U.S. federal government has simply failed to enforce the law. Adding fuel to the fire, the Solyndra loan scandal could be construed to suggest corruption at high levels and the MF Global debacle could be construed as indicative of weak regulation and law enforcement and even of questionable market integrity. In theory, selective enforcement of the law risks the creation of two sets of laws: one for big banks and corporations, and for their executives, i.e., those with connections in Washington D.C. or on Wall Street, and one for everyone else. Among other things, failure to enforce the law could create an environment in which crime pays, but, for ordinary citizens, hard work, prudent financial decision making, saving and investing for the long term do not. More than any other aspect of America's progression towards 3rd world status, the federal government's low level of law enforcement action where "too big to fail" banks are concerned is perhaps the most insidious because it raises questions of legitimacy and of the social contract. A financial and legal system of moral hazard implies that victims face double jeopardy while they are deprived of legal recourse, i.e., those allegedly defrauded might face inflation and tax burdens stemming from preferential treatment of favored corporations or from further bailouts. Destructive Tax Policies In the face of rising government debt, the rapidly shrinking American middle class is the primary target of the U.S. federal government's tax policies. The eventual extinction of the American middle class would be a key milestone along the road to 3rd world status. Current U.S. tax policies favor the largest corporations and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Although tax increases exacerbate economic downturns, several tax options have been or are being discussed. However, none of them are likely to be put in place. • Increasing taxes on corporate profits would result in job losses in the short term and would affect dividends and share prices in the stock market. Lower dividends or share prices would affect pension funds, including government pension funds. Chief among the remaining possibilities is the income tax but, according to the Tax Policy center at the Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, 46% of American households will pay no federal income tax in 2011. The reasons include income tax exemptions for subsistence level income, dependents and nontaxable tax expenditures for senior citizens and low-income working families with children. Assuming that big banks, multinational corporations and the wealthiest 1% of Americans remain off limits in terms of tax policy, the range of income taxed is likely to widen from the current tax on households earning more than $250,000 per year to progressively lower income levels. In fact, the government's intended revenue source is precisely what remains of the once much larger middle class: professionals, small business owners and dual income families in urban areas, etc. These are the households that have managed to stay ahead of inflation, declining real wages and falling household incomes. Among other things, U.S. tax policies will erode capital formation within the remnants of the middle class, which is the engine of small business creation and the source of most American jobs. The eventual result will be a three-tier socioeconomic structure consisting of a super rich wealthy class, a much poorer working class and a massive, politically and financially disenfranchised underclass, similar to that of a 3rd world country. Via Dolorosa The United States increasingly resembles a 3rd world country in terms of unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, falling wages, growing poverty and concentration of wealth, government debt, corporate influence over government and weakening rule of law. Federal Reserve monetary policies and federal government economic, regulatory and tax policies seem to favor the largest banks and corporations over the interests of small businesses or of the general population. The potential elimination of the middle class could reshape the socioeconomic strata of American society in the image of a 3rd world country. It seems only a matter of time before the devolution of the United States becomes more visible. As the U.S. economy continues to decline, public health, nutrition and education, as well as the country's infrastructure, will visibly deteriorate. There is little evidence of political will or leadership for fundamental reforms. All other things being equal, the U.S. will become a post industrial neo-3rd-world country by 2032. |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 01:36 PM PST From questions whether gold is in a bubble to predictions that soaring prices are just around the corner, one thing is clear: a new phase of awareness for gold is upon us. How far might it move before these troubling times are over? [Let's take a close look at a variety of factors and scenarios*before coming to a conclusion.] Words: 5717 So says Bud Conrad ([url]www.caseyresearch.com[/url])*in edited*exerpts from his original article*: [INDENT]Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (
) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the*article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The report’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article r... |
James Turk: The transAtlantic panic Posted: 02 Dec 2011 01:21 PM PST 9:15p ET Friday, December 2, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: As more debt is offered as the only solution to impossible indebtedness, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk reflected this week on what he called "The TransAtlantic Panic." With negative interest rates and bailouts stretching ahead as far as the eye can see, Turk writes, gold's bull market has just as far to go. You can find Turk's commentary at GoldMoney here: http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/james-turk/the-transatlantic-pani... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Granted Landmark Chandgana Power Plant License Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Coal Corp. (TSX: PCY)(OTCQX: PRPCF)(Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that its wholly-owned Mongolian subsidiary, East Energy Development LLC, has received the license certificate from the Mongolian Energy Regulatory Authority to construct the 600-megawatt Chandgana power plant. This 600-mw thermal power plant license is the first of its size issued by the Mongolian government. To ensure strict compliance with Mongolian laws and regulations in obtaining this license, Prophecy retained Mongolian and international consultants over the past 18 months and spent much effort on community relations. Coal for the Chandgana mine-mouth power plant will be supplied from Prophecy's Chandgana Tal deposit, for which the company has already obtained a full mining license. Tal contains 141 million tonnes of measured coal and is located just 9 kilometers north of Prophecy's Chandgana Khavtgai project, a deposit with more than 1 billion tonnes of measured and indicated coal. Chandgana is 60 km from Underkhann city (East Energy System) and 150 km from Baganuur city (Central Energy System). Construction of transmission lines linking the two cities through Chandgana is seen as a top priority for a much-improved and more efficient national Mongolian energy system. John Lee, chairman and CEO of Prophecy Coal, says: "Prophecy has distinguished itself as the premier candidate to build the next Mongolian thermal power plant. There is an understanding among all stakeholders that Mongolia, being one of the world's fastest-growing economies, needs additional power. With the International Monetary Fund projecting a deficit for Mongolia of more than 600 mw by 2016, this need has become urgent and can no longer be delayed." For Prophecy Coal's full press release, complete with maps, please visit: http://www.prophecycoal.com/news_2011_nov21_prophecy_granted_landmark_ch... Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme... California Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe... Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins: https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12 Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization From a Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling. "We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company." Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered. For the company's complete press release, please visit: http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf |
Currency swaps – the beginning of a 'solution'? Posted: 02 Dec 2011 12:00 PM PST |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 11:13 AM PST Since reading about the central bank dollar swap program announced the other day and that it really isn't anything new, just the resurrection of a 2008-era crisis facility, plotting these swap lines versus everything else on the Fed's balance sheet seemed like a good idea. As shown above, the program "sprang to life" in December 2008 and, based on what's happened in recent days, it looks like it just might spring to life again in the period ahead. |
Gold Price Rose 3% This Week, it Must Pierce $1,750 Posted: 02 Dec 2011 11:02 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,747.00 Gold Price Close 23-Nov : 1,695.90 Change : 51.10 or 3.0% Silver Price Close Today : 3262.1 Silver Price Close 23-Nov : 3188.4 Change : 73.70 or 2.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.554 Gold Silver Ratio 23-Nov : 53.190 Change : 0.36 or 0.7% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01867 Silver Gold Ratio 23-Nov : 0.01880 Change : -0.00013 or -0.7% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 142.22 Dow in Gold Dollars 23-Nov : $ 137.51 Change : $ 4.72 or 3.4% Dow in Gold Ounces : 6.880 Dow in Gold Ounces 23-Nov : 6.652 Change : 0.23 or 3.4% Dow in Silver Ounces : 368.46 Dow in Silver Ounces 23-Nov : 353.81 Change : 14.65 or 4.1% Dow Industrial : 12,019.42 Dow Industrial 23-Nov : 11,280.90 Change : 738.52 or 6.5% S&P 500 : 1,244.28 S&P 500 23-Nov : 1,164.41 Change : 79.87 or 6.9% US Dollar Index : 78.637 US Dollar Index 23-Nov : 79.088 Change : -0.451 or -0.6% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,547.70 Platinum Price Close 23-Nov : 1,552.10 Change : -4.40 or -0.3% Palladium Price Close Today : 642.50 Palladium Price Close 23-Nov : 587.25 Change : 55.25 or 9.4% I keep looking at the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE and closes this week, and my suspicion rises like a Tyrannosaurus rex when he's hungry. Monday and Tuesday before the Fed's trick gold traded in an identical range, virtually to the penny. Then it jumped $32.10, but struggleth still to pierce $1,750. Now if I were the Nice Government Men -- and I thank God I am not -- I would try to stifle gold in anticipation of the Swap Initiative. And of course, tis always easiest to do that by hitting silver with large selling. So Tuesday when the GOLD PRICE rose slightly ($2.60), silver dropped 30.8c. Next day came the announcement and gold leapt $32.10 while silver vaulted 87.8c. Does any of that look suspicious to y'all, or am I just a paranoid-conspiracy-theorist-seeing-evil- government-agents-behind-every-market-move? Mercy, it don't matter two hoots and a holler, because the dimwits trying to manipulate the market will never succeed at it, more than a day or two at a time. If they are so powerful and were really able to keep the gold price down, why has gold risen from $252 in 2001 to $1,745 today and silver from 401c to 3262.1c today? Yeah, boy, they're as adept at that as they are at delivering mail. GOLD closed today up $11.70 to $1,747.00 while silver fell off 7.4c to 3262.1. Now that might be manipulation and conspiracy, but it might merely represent longs taking profits on silver at week's end. Lines are plainly drawn in the sand. Gold must pierce $1,750, silver must pierce 3300c, then 3400c. Down below gold must not drop lower than $1,720 or silver lower than 3150c. I am still hesitating to decide, but as day passes day it looks less and less like silver and gold will hit lower lows than those we've seen. Lift up your eyes to the horizon, and think. The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE are rising, all else falling. If the US government and the Fed wants to offer you a SUBSIDY to buy silver and gold by driving the price down temporarily, why wouldn't you take the subsidy and buy? I based this week's scorecard on last Wednesday's closes, since last Friday was a holiday. What leaps at your eyeballs first? Stocks jumped nearly 7% this week, thanks to the Fed's propaganda move, the swap initiative. The quotation above shows you what I think of that, namely, it will accomplish no more than a brief flash in the pan, then stocks will fall to lower levels than they enjoyed before the Fed's trick. Count on that. The Fed's dog and pony show didn't hurt silver and gold, either, up 2.3% and 3% respectively. Clearly, very few in the public have yet realized what central banks are doing to them, since the Fed has now joined them all in a cartel to inflate even more -- proving once again, as if any of y'all were blind, stupid, and deaf enough to have missed all the previous occasions when they've demonstrated the same, that they have no other remedy but to inflate. And as long as they inflate, silver and gold will keep on rising and the economy will keep on dying. Dow closed at 12,019.42 today, grinding lower all day to end at 0.61 points down. S&P500 dropped 0.3 to 1,244.28. Overhead 12,200 is resistance, below support lies at 11,200. That latter will be the next level broken. US DOLLAR INDEX dropped with the Fed's announcement, but has recovered. Today it rose 30.9 basis points (0.4%) to 78.637. The top of the foregoing trading channel comes in today about 77.50. Truly, though, I will count the dollar as rising and likely to rise much more, as long as it remains above 78.50. There might be some undertaking more inefficient, froward, and moronic that a central bank, but it hasn't been seen since the Soviet Union collapsed. Fed's dancy-dance did almost nothing for the Euro. It rose two days, then today gave back almost 100% of the gain. Closed 1.3394, down 0.52%, and still sinking like a lump in a churn. Yen remains under the thumb of the Nice Government Men. Closed today at 128.320c/Y100 (Y77.94/$1). Y'all enjoy your weekend! - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
Gold at September-November Trendline Posted: 02 Dec 2011 11:00 AM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com December 02, 2011 08:54 AM 300 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT The 3 wave rally from the September low is viewed as a correction of the decline from the record high and should be completely retraced. Gold briefly traded under channel support and the former 1681 pivot low from late October before rebounding. A look at the long term picture reveals that gold remains above long term trendlines but some of those lines are well below the current level. Even a test of the trendline that has defined price since the summer 2010 lows would result in a test of the mid 1500s (52 week average in the vicinity). A drop similar in amplitude to the one that occurred in September would reach the low 1400s. If gold has entered a larger bear market, then price needs to stay below the September-November trendline. Latest Video Other TA Articles... |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 09:30 AM PST Dave Gonigam – December 2, 2011
Unemployment "unexpectedly" dropped to from 9.0% to 8.6% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says this morning. It makes for great holiday-cheer headlines on the radio: "The lowest since March 2009" seems to be the common refrain. But really… what gives? Among dozens of economists polled by Bloomberg, the universal guess was either 9.0% or 9.1%.
Unless a boatload of Americans decided to up and retire all of a sudden, it's a pretty safe assumption that many of those people simply gave up looking for work. Those who've given up "looking" no longer count. Conveniently… you know, for that holiday cheer.
Oh, well. Here are the other key numbers from the report:
The figures this month are so confounding that John Williams at ShadowStats.com is still assembling his real-world unemployment figure using the same criteria the government used during the Carter presidency. Usually by this time of day, he'd be out with it… but we still wait.
Remember that? It's the substitution effect on steroids. In an economist's mind: Even as prices rise, your cost of living doesn't go up, because you will naturally substitute hamburger for steak…then kidney beans for hamburger… and cat food for beans. Yummy. Chained CPI means the 3.6% cost-of-living increase you're supposed to get with your Social Security check starting next month would instead be 2.8%, according to the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
But in the last 12 months, it's appeared and reappeared in proposals from Serious Policy people with the persistence of a bad rash…
Our point in trotting out the wonks here is that "chained CPI" as a means of trimming Social Security COLAs isn't going away. Somewhere along the line it will be enacted as law — maybe even next year. Impossible in an election year, you say? As Lord Keynes said about the debauching of currency, it's a process "not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
Factor out all statistical fudges dating back three decades and Social Security benefits would be double what they actually are, according to John Williams at ShadowStats. Or to be accurate about it, the whole system would have blown up long ago. That's why we formed our income desk at Agora Financial years ago — to fill in the gaps left by Social Security and private-sector pensions over which you have no control. Jim Nelson's entry-level newsletter Lifetime Income Report is devoted to picking dividend-paying stocks… and its track record has been outstanding. Put together both dividends and capital gains among everything he's recommended since the letter's launch… and the average gain is 25%. But we know some of you are looking to take your retirement income potential to the next level… which is what this week's Overtime Briefings have been all about. Read on for today's final installment… and stand by for an invitation that you'll see first as a reader of our paid publications.
The S&P just crested 1,250. Like the unemployment rate, the S&P's performance this week might well turn out to be the best since March 2009. The S&P's direction delivered a handsome 39% gain for Abe Cofnas' readers… and the moves in Germany's DAX index added up to another 38% gain. All in all, a textbook week for Abe — two wins among three winning plays, everything panning out in four days or less. Want in on the action next week? Check this out.
She's asking for changes to the European Union treaty summed up by the Financial Times as "stricter budget discipline rules, and tougher sanctions, with stricter surveillance of national budgets."
"Here's how I can imagine it playing out, in two rough stages:"
"How this plays out is unpredictable," Dan concludes, "but we know this: that Germany doesn't have much more time to decide whether it wants either a collapse of its banking system and a eurozone depression or to tolerate higher inflation in order to stave off collapse of its banks." Those are mighty high stakes going into a European Union summit next week. On one thing, however, Dan is highly confident: Before the EU leaders get together one week from today, you should strongly consider bracing for either outcome with one simple move.
Seems patients are skipping their twice-a-year cleanings, putting off fillings, forgoing root canals. As a result, dentists are losing money this year… ![]() "A good smile," writes John Robb at Global Guerrillas. "has become so important over the last 30 or so years it has become 'a test' for whether someone is part of the middle class." "What these numbers are telling us is that we are NOT in a recession. These numbers and the attitude shift we are seeing is telling us that we are in an economic depression and it is getting worse."
"That did not set well with the folks on Main Street who began a very vocal campaign to shame the new governor and other legislators into pressuring Amazon to collect taxes. Amazon fought the move at first, but once they realized how much heat the politicians were taking over the issue, they backed down. The same thing happened in California." "Since the move would put them at a distinct disadvantage against other online retailers in those states, they went to Washington and started lobbying for Congress to force all online retailers to collect taxes to keep the playing field level." "Since few politicians are going to vote against more revenue for their home states and the Main Street lobby, the issue is a snowball rolling downhill. The days of tax-free retail shopping online are almost over."
"With the tax cut extended, the Social Security 'fund' will be depleted sooner; i.e., as an accounting matter it will showing a deficit sooner. But if the tax cut is not extended, the additional tax revenue will be spent by the government when received, and the Social Security fund will get only government bonds (promises) for the money." "No matter how you look it, the Social Security system is unfunded. It is backed by nothing more than the promise of the United States government to pay its liabilities as they become due. Undoubtedly, those liabilities will be paid. The only question is how much will the dollars that are used for payment be worth at the time?" The 5: Well said. This is what makes "financial repression" so diabolical. A scheme in which interest rates don't keep pace with the cost of living punishes savers for doing the right thing… and punishes seniors for getting old at an inconvenient time for the government and the banking system. That's why we've said for months you need to seek out vehicles that will give you the return that savings accounts, CDs and Treasuries no longer will. Again, stand by for today's Overtime, below.
The 5: We'll do you one better. At the conclusion of today's Overtime, follow the link and you'll get a thorough, plain-English explanation of all three income strategies Jim Nelson's been writing about this week. Have a good weekend, Dave Gonigam P.S. "We'll tell you what we expect to get done and we want you to figure out how to do it," says Agora Inc. CFO Bob Compton of the unique work atmosphere at all the divisions of our firm. We were pleased to see our parent firm turn up in a Baltimore Sun survey of "Baltimore's Top Workplaces 2011." Among "large companies" — not exactly how we think of ourselves, but that's OK — we turn up as No. 2. "If restored 19th-century mansions appeal to you," reporter Alan Dessoff writes, "you'd enjoy working at Agora, where 408 employees occupy nine such beauties in Baltimore's historic Mount Vernon district." ![]() We've gotten a tremendous response to this week's Overtime Briefings from Jim Nelson, detailing three alternative income-generating strategies. For this final briefing of the week, he offers one note of caution… |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 09:26 AM PST |
SBM – Sweet Disposition – Seeks Loving Home Posted: 02 Dec 2011 09:18 AM PST We've spent the last few months in search of a corner of the country to call home. A place that has it all, as far as our particular idiom was concerned… Someplace urban enough…but not too urban…someplace pleasant and full of nice architecture…preferably, someplace we would only need a car every great once in a while… We have repeatedly expressed our commitment to finding our personal Shangri-La within the borders of the United States. But just before Thanksgiving, we found ourselves wondering if it didn't make sense to get ourselves — and our gold and silver — out of Dodge while the getting was still good — and possible! We sent our concerns to fellow Agora Financial managing editor, Joel Bowman, of The Daily Reckoning. Joel is from Australia, but has hopped the globe a bit and is currently making his home in the continent below our own. "Go where you're treated best," he counseled. "And when that changes," he continued, "go somewhere else." We took a look around and figured that we're still being treated pretty well here…despite ominous developments… But a few days ago, Joel sent us an article that reminded us that nowhere in the world is truly safe from the wild, desperate grasps of our dying empire. From Infowars: The Senate is set to vote on a bill today that would define the whole of the United States as a 'battlefield' and allow the US Military to arrest American citizens in their own backyard without charge or trial. "The Senate is going to vote on whether Congress will give this president — and every future president — the power to order the military to pick up and imprison without charge or trial civilians anywhere in the world. The power is so broad that even US citizens could be swept up by the military, and the military could be used far from any battlefield, even within the United States itself," writes Chris Anders of the ACLU Washington Legislative Office. Under the 'worldwide indefinite detention without charge or trial' provision of S.1867, the National Defense Authorization Act bill, which is set to be up for a vote on the Senate floor this week, the legislation will 'basically, say in law, for the first time, that the homeland is part of the battlefield,' said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who supports the bill. The bill was drafted in secret by Senators Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) before being passed in a closed-door committee meeting without any kind of hearing. The language appears in sections 1031 and 1032 of the NDAA bill. "I would also point out that these provisions raise serious questions as to who we are as a society and what our Constitution seeks to protect," Colorado Sen. Mark Udall said in a speech last week. 'One section of these provisions, section 1031, would be interpreted as allowing the military to capture and indefinitely detain American citizens on US soil. Section 1031, essentially, repeals the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 by authorizing the US military to perform law enforcement functions on American soil. That alone should alarm my colleagues on both sides of the aisle, but there are other problems with these provisions that must be resolved.' This means Americans could be declared domestic terrorists and thrown in a military brig with no recourse whatsoever. Given that the Department of Homeland Security has characterized behavior such as buying gold, owning guns, using a watch or binoculars, donating to charity, using the telephone or email to find information, using cash and all manner of mundane behaviors as potential indicators of domestic terrorism, such a provision would be wide open to abuse. "American citizens and people picked up on American or Canadian or British streets being sent to military prisons indefinitely, without even being charged with a crime. Really? Does anyone think this is a good idea? And why now?" asks Anders. The ACLU is urging citizens to call their senators and demand that the Udall Amendment be added to the bill, a change that would at least act as a check to prevent Americans being snatched off the streets without some form of congressional oversight. We have been warning for over a decade that Americans would become the target of laws supposedly aimed at terrorists and enemy combatants. Alex Jones personally documented how US troops were being trained to arrest US citizens, in the event of martial law, during urban warfare training drills back in the '90s. Under the National Defense Authorization Act bill, no declaration of martial law would be necessary, since Americans would now be subject to the same treatment as suspected insurgents in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. If you thought that the executive assassination of American citizens abroad was bad enough, now similar powers will be extended to the 'homeland,' in other words, your town, your community, your backyard. Yet it's not as easy as leaving the borders of the United States. The empire, in its hubris, believes the entire world lies within its jurisdiction. The American president recently assassinated an American citizen, whose words supposedly constituted a threat to the United States… How long will it be before dollar-ditching expatriates are declared "deserters," "traitors"…whose very actions undermine the United States…and who must be dealt with as examples? If this doesn't make you want to run for the hills, we don't know what will. But if you hope to make it to the hills, walk; don't run. By running, you may appear to be a domestic terrorist, deserving incarceration. Regards, Gary Gibson, SBM – Sweet Disposition – Seeks Loving Home originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over 400,000 readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. |
Clearing Houses Are The Mechanism Of All Markets Posted: 02 Dec 2011 09:13 AM PST My Dear Extended Family, We all know bank's balance sheets are cartoons due to FASB's capitulation on the fair market value issue, that the euro financial leaders do not deserve the title leader, and that the Fed is the source of liquidity for Euroland in unlimited cheap dollar swaps, but there is more. That Continue reading Clearing Houses Are The Mechanism Of All Markets |
Kerry Lutz Interview with Gary Wagner – The Goldforecast.com – 12-2-11 Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:59 AM PST from The Financial Survival Network: Gary Wagner has been a trader and a market technician for over 25 years. In early in 2009 he began to focus his attention on one market: Gold. The yellow metal, gold, began to rally in 2008, but Gary knew the best was yet to come. He believed that gold was poised for an incredible and explosive upside move. Thus the GoldForecast was born. Gary's daily video newsletter is always interesting and often profitable. He uses a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. We talked about the invention of paper money by the Chinese in the 10th century and their invention of inflation in the 14th century. Perhaps history doesn't always repeat itself, however, it is rhyming in many chords at the present time. Too many promises have been made without any regard to the abilities of governments to honor them. Gary is by his own admission, A half full kind of guy, and he believes that humanity will find a way to avert out and out global economic, social and political disaster. However, he believes that the solution will be hard won and very difficult to attain and will be done in the face of disaster. Hopefully, Gary is correct in his assessment, but he's still intent in his belief that everyone should be buying to gold as it will continue to dramatically appreciate in price. Click Here to Listen to the Interview This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
CME Hikes FX Margins: AUD, CAD, JPY, RMB Impacted Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:56 AM PST Barely has the USD/Renminbi (or RMB) contract started to trade on the CME and already the exchange decided to hike the margin by 18.5%. And not only: in a broad action across the board, the CME hiked margins in some key FX contracts, including Aussie Dollar, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Forint, Zloty, and the Koruna. In addition, CME hiked two Interest Rate products including EM and I3. So if anyone was wondering why the AUDXXX dropped after hours, now you know.
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Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:40 AM PST Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors, There has been more and more speculation that the Fed is getting ready to launch a new QE program, this one targeting residential mortgages. With the data coming in better than expected, stocks back up, and Plosser and Bullard both chiming in that improving data would make them hesitate or question the need for more QE, there is some fear that it is off the table. I don't think it is off the table, and if anything see growing signs that they are trying to create the political will to get it done. Obviously some Fed members have been vocal about doing more, so the dissenters do have competition. Some of the usual "leak" sources have been indicating that it is possible, but that is not what got me more curious. Today at least 5 commentators on Bloomberg were downplaying good data and stating that things can't get much better without housing. I agree, but it seemed like a weird day for so many people to refer to housing. There was no housing data out today, and the jobs report was okay so it wasn't obvious to point out the continued weakness in housing. Maybe after weeks of Europe and deficit talks, it was time for a new subject, but it just struck me as odd how often it came up. 2008 was easier, back before Bill Gross fell out of favor with the White House, because you knew whatever he said was an attempt to prepare people for a new policy. It is harder now to figure out who is setting the market up, but I find it hard to believe that it is a co-incident that "the need to fix housing" was on everyone's lips. So I think Bernanke is trying to lay the groundwork of why it is so important to buy mortgages. Politically unpopular There is a strong belief that more QE is politically unpopular. That is true but it also makes sense that the Fed would push more people into talking about how the key to real recovery is the housing market. I am also reasonably sure that Bernanke will do what he wants if he believes it is the difference between turning the corner into real recovery or risk slipping back into daily double dip talk. My guess is the job is less fun than he thought, but he has gone so far, he is not going to be scared by politicians (who have proven their ineptitude) from doing something he believes strongly in. Even if he backs down from full on QE, maybe operation twist can be twisted to purchase mortgages rather than treasuries? Clearly the transfer mechanism from 10 year bond yields into cheap mortgages for everyone is broken. He is creative and seems to get what he wants, so I wouldn't place too much faith in political will stopping him. Maybe it should, and maybe the Fed needs more accountability and some strict limits beyond which he needs Congressional approval, but for now I think he can do what he wants to a large degree. That scares me, but doesn't seem to bother him. The politicians might be against QE, but many citizens would be less offended by the fed by US residential mortgages than they are by offering global swap lines (and even that didn't seem to generate public outrage). The one asset class that the Fed could buy and make citizens happy is mortgages - especially if it helps create new origination. Mortgages - liquidity or solvency problem? I think residential mortgages are now much more of a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. GNMA vs FNMA spreads hit a recent record wide. Many investors seem to be interested in residential mortgages but are waiting for prices to come to them. European banks, who will continue to shed assets in the US do have lots of RMBS paper, they could use a nice aggressive bid. So the current mortgage market has many of the same characteristics that made QE1 so successful (I liked QE1 but hated QE2 and don't like operation twist). There is a pool of potential investors who won't buy because they think it is getting cheaper. There is a group of quasi-forced sellers. They need to shrink balance sheet and this area is an obvious choice as the losses are in the manageable range and some banks may even be almost properly reserved against the losses. There is no natural buyer. US banks, in spite of a massive rally this week in CDS spreads, still see their bonds lagging (another liquidity problem?) and aren't aggressive adding risk. If the Fed comes into this market it could make a diifference. It puts a floor on the market, as it chases prices up, and European banks have less to sell than is feared, then private investors may chase the market. Investors are talking about 12-14% loss adjusted yields in the sector. It wouldn't take much to spur them to action. Heck, you can almost hear the ETF guys cranking out some new ETF's so retail investors can jump on the bandwagon. If the Fed can use their balance sheet to spur private capital to work, that makes sense. If US banks get comfortable there is a buyer of mortgage paper, they can maybe be a bit more aggressive on generating new mortgages. They are concerned about the solvency of each individual mortgage, and that has made them possibly too conservative. Freeing up some balance sheet, seeing hedge funds buying up secondary market product, may generate the kick in the behind, that they need. Operation twist was too smart for its own good. This is simple and direct and could be politically popular in the end. Personally I don't love the idea, but it makes more sense than many other proposals out there to improve the situation, and it helps deal with the European bank liquidity problems in a way that is less obvious than lending them money. How likely? I'm guessing it is about 75% likely we get something relatively soon. I prefer changing operation twist to buy mortgages rather than outright purchases, but maybe we need another dose of dollar weakness (or it would offset the dollar strength we might see if Draghi turns his printing presses up a notch or two). I think Draghi is 100% likely to cut rates, probably the day after we get another hand holding moment stating that some agreement in principle has been reached on treaty changes. I think he is only about 50% likely to start printing, but the sterilization is getting more difficult to manage and frankly may be draining liquidity from other parts of the system that could use it. If they start printing, I'm not sure that it can end. Their situation is much more complex than ours. We are playing with some scenarios, but most end up with a realistic chance that more debt of each country and more countries need to get monetized. Weird, and maybe there is a way to stop printing and not go right back to bigger problems, but it isn't obvious to us. I think there is about a 25% chance that the EFSF raises a slug of money next week, so it can join in the party. The 275 billion euro doesn't fix anything on its own, but maybe it is time to get started. Get 25 billion or so to work in the primary and secondary market and spend less time have intellectual debates on the best way to leverage (without any structured credit intellectuals even involved). They should do something like this, but given how disorganized they are on EFSF, I doubt anything happens. Who knows what the IMF will do, but I suspect they are ready with some positive announcement after the photo op treaty agreement announcement (the treaty won't ever get changed but no one will care for a week or so). A group of conservatives is out there trying to stop the IMF. I don't understand why the IMF is so big or has so much of our money at our disposal, but I find it hard to believe that we won't need to pass something to stop money from going to them under prior commitments and congress passing anything is hard to imagine right now. In any case, it should be another fun filled week. At some point i would love to find out if the swap line cut and china rate cut were co-ordinated or just happened. I think it may have been dumb luck but the central bankers are now clearly aware how much markets liked the idea and will use it again to get cheap thrills. |
Gold and Stocks Possibly on the Brink of Going Up Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:33 AM PST |
New York Sun: Bernanke's forgotten footnote Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:33 AM PST 4:30p ET Friday, December 2, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The New York Sun today notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remarked nine years ago that the Fed had promised Congress that it would not bail out foreign governments, even as the Fed now seems to have undertaken to do just that and become central bank to the world. This is, the Sun says, a pretty big policy question, in which Congress, except, of course, for Ron Paul, seems oblivious. The Sun's editorial is headlined "Bernanke's Forgotten Footnote" and it's posted here: http://www.nysun.com/editorials/bernankes-forgotten-footnote/87588/ CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization From a Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling. "We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company." Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered. For the company's complete press release, please visit: http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme... California Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe... Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins: https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12 Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Granted Landmark Chandgana Power Plant License Company Press Release VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Coal Corp. (TSX: PCY)(OTCQX: PRPCF)(Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that its wholly-owned Mongolian subsidiary, East Energy Development LLC, has received the license certificate from the Mongolian Energy Regulatory Authority to construct the 600-megawatt Chandgana power plant. This 600-mw thermal power plant license is the first of its size issued by the Mongolian government. To ensure strict compliance with Mongolian laws and regulations in obtaining this license, Prophecy retained Mongolian and international consultants over the past 18 months and spent much effort on community relations. Coal for the Chandgana mine-mouth power plant will be supplied from Prophecy's Chandgana Tal deposit, for which the company has already obtained a full mining license. Tal contains 141 million tonnes of measured coal and is located just 9 kilometers north of Prophecy's Chandgana Khavtgai project, a deposit with more than 1 billion tonnes of measured and indicated coal. Chandgana is 60 km from Underkhann city (East Energy System) and 150 km from Baganuur city (Central Energy System). Construction of transmission lines linking the two cities through Chandgana is seen as a top priority for a much-improved and more efficient national Mongolian energy system. John Lee, chairman and CEO of Prophecy Coal, says: "Prophecy has distinguished itself as the premier candidate to build the next Mongolian thermal power plant. There is an understanding among all stakeholders that Mongolia, being one of the world's fastest-growing economies, needs additional power. With the International Monetary Fund projecting a deficit for Mongolia of more than 600 mw by 2016, this need has become urgent and can no longer be delayed." For Prophecy Coal's full press release, complete with maps, please visit: http://www.prophecycoal.com/news_2011_nov21_prophecy_granted_landmark_ch... |
Second Biggest Dow Points Week Ever Ends On Weak Note Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:26 AM PST A 787 point gain on the Dow this week, second only ever in absolute points gained to w/e 10/31/08, ended on a disappointing note as equities gave back significant early gains around the NFP print to end the day practically unch (128pts off the highs). Equities underperformed credit on the day with another strangely impressive (given NAV and HY spread differentials) outperformance by HYG. On a medium-term basis, equities began to revert back to where broad risk assets are more supportive but on a short-term intraday basis, risk assets (most notably EURJPY, AUDJPY, and TSY levels and curves) were in a more aggressive derisking mode. ES definitely maintained strength for longer than many expected today before giving it all back into the close, but financials (especially the majors) were surprisingly positive even after such a good week - quite a squeeze.
Index arbitrage activity was noted in HY but we fear some over-exuberance in retail buying of HYG - especially given how rich it is trading to NAV. It is interesting though that on an intrday basis, HYG-SPY-VXX-TLT all clung very tightly to their empirical-based relationship (which perhaps also helps explain the outperformance of HYG over HY). But on a broader basis, risk assets in general were more positive - being dragged upwards towards equity and it reverted back towards support. Whether pre-bailout regime of CONTEXT is applicable is questionable but it does provide a perspective on equity's move this week relative to FX carry, commodities, rates, curves, swaps, and spreads. On a short-term basis, CONTEXT was more negative today (based on the very recent market microstructure) as EURJPY and TSY (levels and curve shape) were more in a derisking mode. The following chart shows TSYs performance this week - certainly doesn't looks like the step function uptrend we saw in equities. Although the long end rose 10bps (which we suepect is more repatriation flows), the short-end ended the week only marginally higher in yield and all dramaticaly off their highest yields of the week. Modest USD with swissy weakest versus the USD and SEK strongest among the majors, was interestingly ignored as Oil and Copper managed gains on the day with Gold unch and Silver down (almost exactly matching USD's move on the day).
All-in-all, following Europe's weak close, it seems the midweek exuberance is wearing off and the reality that is December 9th's deadline and the near-impossibility of the task ahead is leading to some different asset allocation decisions into year-end. Financials' strength is surprising, but we ponder the magnitude of TLGP maturities they faced this week and next and maybe this was a helpful distraction. And for those curious how the biggest rally ever looked like from the perspective of October 31, 2008, here it is courtesy of the NYT's Floyd Norris. Little did he know what was about to ensue in the world:
It was the former, and unless the global central banks had unleashed the most epic period of global moral hazard and financial bailouts, we would be living in a totally different world right now. Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context |
Greg Weldon predicts the magic number for gold's breakout Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:25 AM PST 4:22p ET Friday, December 2, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Fund manager Greg Weldon today tells King World News what he thinks is the magic number for gold's breakout in U.S. dollars. Reaching it, he says, is a matter of central bank efforts to persuade the markets that they'll succeed in reflating -- that is, devaluing currencies. (Gold is always ready to help them. All the central banks have to do is get out of its way.) An excerpt from Weldon's interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/2_We... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT For Continuous Wealth Creation, the Hera Research Newsletter The life cycles of companies that produce natural resources allow investors to allocate assets among companies at different stages of development and to profit from transitions between stages. Based on natural resource company life cycles, the Hera Research Newsletter maximizes profits through deep, fundamental analysis at each stage of development and by moving gains back to earlier-stage companies in a continuous wealth-creation process. Hera Research covers a pipeline of high-quality natural resource companies at different stages of development. The companies span discovery and production of gold, silver, and platinum group metals, select base metals, oil and gas, green energy, agriculture, rare earth elements, uranium, and more. Discover the unique value of the Hera Research Newsletter by visiting: http://www.heraresearch.com/newsletter.html Or call Ron Hera at 360-339-8541x101. Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme... California Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe... Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins: https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12 Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Golden Phoenix Signs Definitive Agreement Company Press Release SPARKS, Nevada -- Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 60 percent interest, with an option to buy an additional 20 percent interest, in the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, now owned by Silver Global S.A., a Panamanian corporation. Santa Rosa produced more than 100,000 ounces of gold from 1996 to 1998 before being closed in part to low gold prices, which are now more than five times higher. Golden Phoenix intends to acquire its initial 60 percent interest in Santa Rosa by acquiring 60 percent of the share capital of a recently created company under the name Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., formed to hold and operate the mine. Tom Klein, CEO of Golden Phoenix says: "The agreement establishes a solid framework from which we can advance Mina Santa Rosa to production-ready status." For Golden Phoenix's complete statement, please visit: http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-signs-definitive-ac... |
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:17 AM PST |
Michael Kosares: For nine years gold has yielded 8.5% annually after inflation Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:15 AM PST 4p ET Friday, December 2, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): Michael Kosares of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver today charts gold's performance for the last decade in ordinary percentage terms and in terms of a "real rate of return," when inflation is deducted. The "real rate of return," Kosares writes, "has been the stuff of portfolio planners' dreams. Even when you take into account the two off-years of 2004 and 2008, the average real rate of return over the nine-year period was a stellar 8.5 percent. If I were to use a single word to define gold's performance over the past decade, it would be 'stalwart.' The other word that comes to mind is 'consistent.' These two words are near and dear to the heart of those who wish to hold on to their hard-earned wealth." Kosares' report is titled "Saving Gold" and is posted at Centennial's Internet site, USAGold, here: http://www.usagold.com/amk/savinggold.html CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Golden Phoenix Completes Operating Agreement Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (GPXM) has entered a joint venture operating agreement with Silver Global S.A., a Panamanian corporation, governing the operational and management aspects of their new joint venture company, Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., a Panamanian corporation formed to hold and operate the Santa Rosa gold mine in Canazas, Panama, and explore the mine's adjacent property. Golden Phoenix will be manager of the joint venture company. Silver Global will handle all social programs, political and community relations, and human resource matters for the joint venture company in Panama. Golden Phoenix and Silver Global also have agreed to work together on all future acquisitions within Panama and to bring such new opportunities to the joint venture company. Golden Phoenix will be earning in to a 60 percent interest (and potentially an 80 percent interest) in the Santa Rosa mine. Upon signing the joint venture agreement and completing the corresponding acquisition payment, Golden Phoenix will earn an initial 15 percent interest in the joint venture company. Tom Klein, CEO of Golden Phoenix, says the agreement "creates a solid foundation for the development and planned re-opening of Mina Santa Rosa." For Golden Phoenix's full statement on the joint venture operating agreement, please visit: http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-completes-joint-ven... Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme... California Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe... Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins: https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12 Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT For Continuous Wealth Creation, the Hera Research Newsletter The life cycles of companies that produce natural resources allow investors to allocate assets among companies at different stages of development and to profit from transitions between stages. Based on natural resource company life cycles, the Hera Research Newsletter maximizes profits through deep, fundamental analysis at each stage of development and by moving gains back to earlier-stage companies in a continuous wealth-creation process. Hera Research covers a pipeline of high-quality natural resource companies at different stages of development. The companies span discovery and production of gold, silver, and platinum group metals, select base metals, oil and gas, green energy, agriculture, rare earth elements, uranium, and more. Discover the unique value of the Hera Research Newsletter by visiting: http://www.heraresearch.com/newsletter.html Or call Ron Hera at 360-339-8541x101. |
Is Gold Going to Hit $2000 By 2012? Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:12 AM PST Quoted In Barron's "The world is navigating troubled waters," observed Jeb Handwerger, editor of Gold Stock Trades. "What we … witnessed the day after the rally (yesterday's session) was a technical day of rest before the upward move of the DJIA and the S&P 500 resumes their upward trends." At its current pace today, GLD's headed to a 3%-plus weekly gain. Likewise, SLV's working on a better-than 4% advance for the week. But consider the small-cap focused Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ). At last check, it was falling by 0.5% on Friday. Still, it's looking at around a 10% gain on the week. By contrast, the large-cap dominated Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which was falling 2.7% on the day, was moving towards more than a 5% weekly uptick. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) was trading down 0.9% this morning, but still looking at a better-than 9% advance on the week. In futures markets, gold for February delivery — the most actively traded contract — was trading up by $14.20 to $1,754 an ounce. Silver for March delivery on the Comex was up 54 cents at $33.30 an ounce. "Gold bullion appears to be forming a bullish symmetrical triangle (technical pattern) on the verge of breaking out to the upside," Handwerger told clients today. "After 12-weeks of consolidation, a move above the descending resistance line on strong volume could indicate a potential upswing to the $2150 (an ounce) area." Read the full article at Barron's by clicking here… Subscribe to my free 30 day trial to my daily bulletin by clicking here… Check out recent chart analysis. |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:50 AM PST No matter how one looks at it, the current Kondratiev winter has several years to go. Things may well get worse before they get better. The stock market could fall to new lows. Gold could soar to new highs as the crisis deepens. The current solutions are band aids when what is required is a cleansing that allows the debt to be written off and deleveraged. |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:40 AM PST It seems Rubicon Minerals is on the move. Nov 29th at market open on the TSX a block of 500,000 shares moved, no corresponding activity on RBY stateside. It's moved up since that date but nothing in the new or announcements until the Raymond James new today, mentioned on BNN this morning that Rubicon Minerals would be worth $8/share in a takeover. The interesting point to note today isn't price but volume, yes it did open over $4.35 and has settled back to $4.00-4.10 range but the volume is significant. On the TSX is 4 times the average (2 million vs 549,000 average shares/day) and on the AMEX there seems to be even more interest with over 9 times the normal average volume (4.6 million vs 570,000 average daily/day). Something is definitely up and I think a takeover would be a nice outcome, $8.00/share would be the minimum I'd be interested in. |
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - December 2, 2011 Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:35 AM PST |
Gold Stocks Should Win Regardless of Economic Turmoil: Chen Lin Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:27 AM PST The Gold Report: When you last spoke with The Gold Report in August, the gold:silver ratio was about 40:1. Today it's about 53:1. In August, you were looking for a lower gold:silver ratio that you thought would probably be more reasonable under the circumstances. Yet it seems to have gone the other direction. What do you think has happened here? Was silver drastically overpriced or not able to keep up with the gold? Chen Lin: In the last interview, I was pretty evenly bidding between gold and silver. I don't have a particular preference. At that time, there were some major funds buying silver. Historically it has been loweras low as 10:1 a very long time ago. But, right now, it's in a reasonable range. So, I'm not saying that one is overvalued and the other is undervalued. Silver has some industrial components to it while gold is mainly monetary. I'm personally looking for the silver:gold ratio to go lower over the long run. Right now, the financial crisis has pushed central banks to... |
Weldon - Here is the Key Level for a Massive Gold Breakout Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:26 AM PST ![]() This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:14 AM PST The pattern is by now so familiar that it deserves a place beside other technical indicators like moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. It begins with part or all of the global economy appearing to implode under its five-decade accumulation of debt. The public sector/central bank nexus responds with a liquidity injection, leading the markets to rally explosively and the pundits to declare the problem fixed. Then the markets gradually remember that liquidity and solvency are two different things, and that the mortgage lenders/money center banks/PIIGS countries/hedge funds/State and local governments, etc., are insolvent, not illiquid. And the cycle begins again. But what to call it? "Sucker rally" seems a little too benign and prosaic for a process that looks more like fraud perpetrated on a learning-disabled, desperately-credulous victim. "Death throes of a decadent system" is accurate but too pretentious and doesn't convey the cyclical (and cynical) nature of the process. "Financial terrorism" is better, since the regularity of the cycle — and the fact that central banks have absolute control over the timing — imply that there's massive insider trading going on, possibly as part of a scheme by the (name your favorite elite conspiracy group) to suck as much wealth out of the system as possible before finally letting it collapse. Still, the term doesn't convey the comic aspect of rich, supposedly-astute players getting suckered over and over. Incompetent money managers are funny. In the end, what it's called is less important than the fact that it's a great trading indicator. Starting in 2007, if you'd gone long risk when the markets were falling apart — on the assumption that panicked governments would quickly intervene — and then taken profits and gone short a few weeks after the intervention, you'd have made a fortune from all the volatility. The current market looks like another perfect set-up: A week ago, Europe was collapsing, China was slowing down and the US budgeting process was paralyzed. Stocks around the world had fallen hard, and a Euro-zone breakup was being actively planned for by governments and trading exchanges. Armageddon, in other words. So the central banks inject another hit of liquidity and Germany and the ECB appear to embrace the commingling of the continent's balance sheets. And voila, the bulls are back in charge. Now, trading strategies work until they don't, and there's always the risk that this latest bailout will actually fix the world's problems and usher in a new era of consumer-led growth with soaring corporate profits, low inflation, and rising share prices. But…nah, why even give this possibility serious consideration? Nothing that was promised this week will make much of a near-term difference. Lower reserve requirements in China and cheaper dollar-denominated loans in Europe are just tweaks to already existing programs. More fiscal integration in Europe is inevitable if the common currency is to function as promised. But think for a moment about what this implies — Germany and France getting to micromanage Italy's pension and tax system — and it clearly isn't happening this month. Getting from here to a German-run Europe will take maybe five more near-death experiences, and in any event won't address the fact that even Germany's balance sheet (when you include its unfunded liabilities) really isn't AAA. So, the pattern should hold: "Risk-on" trades work this week, then things get choppy for a while. Then the markets grow cautious and finally terrified. The most likely catalyst for the panic stage is the massive, front-loaded refinancing schedule that Italy and Spain have unwisely set up for early 2012. But it could be anything. The point is to be short risk when it hits but not to marry the position, because more liquidity is on the way. The con will keep working as long as the world continues to see fiat currencies as valuable. |
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