saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Research In Motion: Lessons Learned
- Don't Buy Silver, Buy Platinum
- 5 Dividend Stocks To Shield Your Portfolio From Inflation
- Onyx Pharmaceuticals And Jaguar Mining: Are Either Worth A Gamble?
- WATCH: Final attempt to save Eurozone?
- Gold vs The Dollar as the Eurozone Wilts
- Collapse of Gold and Silver Points to Skullduggery: John Embry
- Auerback, Naylor-Leyland Cite Gold Suppression; Turk Expects Silver Blastoff
- Why Your Favorite Gold Stock Will Someday Sell for $200
- A Crude Awakening: Alasdair Macleod
- SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting in March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1,900 and $8,500/Oz
- CFTC Data Shows Total Gold Futures and Options Positions Back at 2009 Levels
- Gold Prices May Reach $2,000 by March 2012
- The Euro: Destroying the Village in Order to Save It
- Keiser Report: Kleptocrats Go for Gold
- The Dollar Is Likely to Spur Precious Metals to Move Higher
- Thailand’s Gold Rush
- Europe Stands on Verge of Apocalyptic Crisis
- Venezuela Celebrates Gold Repatriation
- Money Printing to Cause Significant Gold Move in 2012
- Preserve Wealth Value with Gold
- 22 Reasons For Economic Collapse
- Volatile silver up 18% in 12 months lagging gold’s 25% gain, can silver catch up?
- Trader alert: Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar
- This dominant commodity stock is nearly as cheap as it was in 2008
- Ron Paul explains his plan to save the U.S. dollar
- Got Gold Report – Season of Blue
- No Free Markets Anymore, Just Manipulations: Marc Faber
- German Bond Failure
- LISTEN: Arch Crawford talks Gold with Chris Waltzek
| Research In Motion: Lessons Learned Posted: 29 Nov 2011 05:01 AM PST By Cameron Kaine: It's a foregone conclusion that Research In Motion (RIMM) has lost the battle in the smart phone and devices market to Apple (AAPL) and alternatives on Google's (GOOG) Android platform. But what lessons can investors learn from a demise that seems inevitable? In a recent article, I suggested that the company is Palm 2.0. But in searching for lessons, this comparison is more relevant than you might otherwise think. Because RIM did to Palm exactly what Apple is now doing to RIM – this is what ultimately allowed Palm to then be scooped up by HP (HPQ) for pennies on the dollar. There have been many companies who have largely invented markets as RIM did and then allow others to steal away the business. You don't have to look farther than the aforementioned companies as prime examples. Apple has claimed that Microsoft (MSFT) stole away Windows or the graphical user Complete Story » |
| Don't Buy Silver, Buy Platinum Posted: 29 Nov 2011 04:35 AM PST By Geoffrey Ching: Since silver peaked in April of this year, it has declined considerably from around $50 an ounce to $32 today. During the same period, gold has continued its consistent uptrend. Given this, it may seem like silver is a good relative value play right now. While it may be so, I think that platinum offers an even better value. First of all, we can look at platinum's price relative to gold and silver historically. By using the ratio of platinum to other precious metals, we can see how the metals are trading relative to each other and to their historical ranges. Currently, the platinum to gold ratio is below one, an indication that platinum's price is lower than that of gold. This is quite rare as platinum's price usually stays above gold's price Complete Story » |
| 5 Dividend Stocks To Shield Your Portfolio From Inflation Posted: 29 Nov 2011 03:44 AM PST By Stock Croc: No one wants to lose money to be sure, but burying it in a coffee can does not insulate it from the ravages of inflation. The only option available to preserve and grow wealth is to invest it. While there is a universe of investment options out there (some really out there), my passion is the equities market. Stock! What a world of diversity! Do you like real estate? Invest in REITs. Like gold? Invest in gold stocks. Art or antiques your passion? Buy stock in Sotheby's (BID). For me, it's all about stock. That said, I've ferreted out 5 stocks I believe will, at best, grow your wealth and, at worst, preserve it against inflation. I selected U.S. large caps that pay a dividend and have an average daily trading volume in excess of 1 million shares. In terms of fundamentals, I screened for price/earnings, past 5 year sales Complete Story » |
| Onyx Pharmaceuticals And Jaguar Mining: Are Either Worth A Gamble? Posted: 29 Nov 2011 03:31 AM PST By Bert Wilkison: Two very different companies in different sectors find themselves in somewhat similar situations: They both make for interesting potential buyout plays. The primary difference is that Jaguar (JAG), a diverse gold mining company in Brazil, received an unsolicited $1B buyout offer from China Shandong Gold recently, while Onyx (ONXX), a U.S. biopharmaceutical company specializing in cancer treatments, confirmed yesterday that it is considering putting itself up for sale and has hired Centerview Partners LLP to assist in the exploration of "strategic alternatives." Both would likely be bought at a significant premium to today's prices, but are either worth a buyout play gamble at this time? What we know (and don't): Jaguar Withstanding a bidding war for Jaguar, the current offer for the company, as reported by Reuters, represents a 36% premium to current levels. It is noteworthy that it recently lowered production guidance for FY 2011 to 155,000-163,000 ounces of Complete Story » |
| WATCH: Final attempt to save Eurozone? Posted: 29 Nov 2011 03:12 AM PST The Eurozone crisis seems to be spiraling out of control. In an attempt to try to control the downward spiral in the Eurozone, President Obama met with the members of the EU to try to come up with a solution to the failing Euro. Three counties have already been bailed out and now Italy and Spain may be next in line. Will the Eurozone's collapse affect the global economy? Lauren Lyster, host of Capital Account, joins us to analayze the situation. ~TVR |
| Gold vs The Dollar as the Eurozone Wilts Posted: 29 Nov 2011 03:06 AM PST
During the past week the debt crisis in the Eurozone took another turn for the worse. Italian yields hit an all-time high; Spanish, French and Portuguese yields soared and Germany battled to sell their bonds. In Europe, it is clear that Greece is toast as they are not going to be able to pay back its debt meaning that Greek bonds are pretty much worthless. Until last month the European crisis was limited and a hope of being contained. Since then interest rates on French bonds, which had been following Germany, began following Spain and Italy higher. The 10-year yield on French bonds has surged in the past six weeks from about 2.50% to nearly 4%. Last week Italy managed to sell the maximum target of EUR 8 billion of six-month T-bills. Italy sold 8 billion euros of 6-month bills at a rate of 6.504%, a 14-year high and nearly double the 3.535% rate it received from a similar auction last month. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 1.47, showing weaker demand than prior auction with 1.57 bid-to-cover ratio last month. Yields on both two- and five-year bonds jumped to new euro era high in the secondary markets, at 7.70% and 7.80% respectively. The yield for the 10-year bonds remained above the 7% level, a level that is seen as unsustainable to Italy. Greece, Ireland and Portugal all had 10 year yield above 7% before seeking bailouts. Read More @ MineWeb.com |
| Collapse of Gold and Silver Points to Skullduggery: John Embry Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:56 AM PST  Here's a piece that John wrote for the monthly Canadian publication, Investor's Digest of Canada, which was posted on November 18th. Here are a couple of short paragraphs from his column. "I've always believed that the real move in gold and silver wouldn't occur until price discovery moved from the fraudulent paper market to the physical market...and now there's abundant evidence that we're on the cusp of just such a development." "When that happens, I can assure you that many of the current non-believers in gold and silver will increasingly put their saving in these precious metals." |
| Auerback, Naylor-Leyland Cite Gold Suppression; Turk Expects Silver Blastoff Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:56 AM PST  This GATA release contains three separate links to three different stories. All of them are worth your time. But you can decide which ones are of interest to you once you've read Chris Powell's introductions to each. The link to the GATA release is here. |
| Why Your Favorite Gold Stock Will Someday Sell for $200 Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:56 AM PST  BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark has a very long, but very wonderful commentary in yesterday's edition of Casey'Daily Dispatch. If you're not on the mailing list for this free publication, you should be. It's an absolute must read...and there's lots of it. The link is here. |
| A Crude Awakening: Alasdair Macleod Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:56 AM PST  Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod's new commentary, posted at GoldMoney, argues that world oil demand will start exceeding declining supply so much that a devastating inflation will result, against which gold should be a pretty good hedge. Macleod's commentary is headlined "A Crude Awakening". |
| SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting in March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1,900 and $8,500/Oz Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:56 AM PST  SocGen has released its much anticipated Multi Asset Portfolio Scenario/Strategy guide titled simply enough "Patience: bad news will become good news". Here is the key quote for those worried that : "A major liquidity crisis should not occur this time, as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ." |
| CFTC Data Shows Total Gold Futures and Options Positions Back at 2009 Levels Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:41 AM PST |
| Gold Prices May Reach $2,000 by March 2012 Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:39 AM PST Report from The Times of India. |
| The Euro: Destroying the Village in Order to Save It Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:05 AM PST from GoldMoney.com:
Gold and silver also recorded gains yesterday, with the gold price nudging $1,715 per ounce and silver breaking back above $32 per ounce. Some may, though, be troubled by the fact that gold seems to be acting as less a safe haven, and more as a risk asset – that is, its price is boosted on good news, with declines on bad news. Don't I buy gold to hedge against risk? Read More @ GoldMoney.com |
| Keiser Report: Kleptocrats Go for Gold Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:03 AM PST This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss lunatics for Italian gold and another failed debt auction in Germany. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Mark O'Byrne of Goldcore.com about the European debt crisis and Ireland's gold. ~TVR |
| The Dollar Is Likely to Spur Precious Metals to Move Higher Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:00 AM PST SunshineProfits |
| Posted: 29 Nov 2011 01:00 AM PST According to figures recently released by the International Monetary Fund, Thailand seems to have taken advantage of the recent correction and consolidation in the gold price to continue its long-term ... |
| Europe Stands on Verge of Apocalyptic Crisis Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:59 AM PST Financial Red Alert: Europe Stands on Verge of 'Apocalyptic' Debt Crisis With Only Days Remaining by Mike Adams, NaturalNews.com:
After years of working diligently to raise the alarm on the precariousness of the global financial system, it has become clear to me that most people still do not grasp the reality of where our global financial system really stands. We are on the verge of a systemic financial implosion that could very nearly wipe out the currency holdings (bank accounts) of hundreds of millions of people, and with each passing day, that long-postponed day of financial reckoning inches ever closer. "If the European summit could reach a deal on December 9, its next scheduled meeting, the eurozone will survive. If not, it risks a violent collapse," writes Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times (www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d9a299a8-17…). Two years ago, such language would have been spat upon as "doom and gloom fear mongering." Today it is the mathematical reality across the European Union. Read More @ NaturalNews.com |
| Venezuela Celebrates Gold Repatriation Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:56 AM PST by Roman Baudzus, GoldMoney.com:
The repatriation of Venezuelan gold reserves has caught the attention of those who accuse the US and other industrial states of not being in possession of all the gold they officially claim to hold. Therefore, the steps taken by the Venezuelan government have been interpreted as a vote of mistrust towards western governments and their central banks. An increasing number of investors have been asking themselves if the central banks of the western hemisphere are really storing all the gold that they claim to own. Read More @ GoldMoney.com |
| Money Printing to Cause Significant Gold Move in 2012 Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:55 AM PST Michael Pento: Money Printing to Cause Significant Gold Move in 2012 from King World News:
With tremendous volatility in global markets, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies writes for King World News to put together the pieces of the economic puzzle and explain why gold will continue to rise. Pento writes, "Europe is providing the U.S. with a serious warning, cut your deficits as soon as possible or face skyrocketing debt service payments and insolvency. So I was hoping, given this valuable lesson currently being taught us, that our government would now be making huge strides towards fixing America's fiscal imbalances." Continue reading @ KingWorldNews.com |
| Preserve Wealth Value with Gold Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:50 AM PST John Williams Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Wealth Value with Gold
Among the specters lurking in ShadowStats.com's Editor John Williams' gloomy outlook for the U.S. are the demise of the dollar, hyperinflation and the ongoing lack of political will to take sound corrective measures. Still, as he tells The Gold Report in this exclusive interview, investors have options. Williams contends that turning to gold, silver and strong foreign currencies would protect wealth and position savvy investors to take advantage of extraordinary opportunities likely to flow out of the turmoil ahead. The Gold Report: When we talked in May, you predicted that hyperinflation could be a reality as soon as 2014, something you addressed at length in your Hyperinflation Special Report. Have six months of euro debt crises, Middle East revolts and U.S. Treasuries' downgrading altered your outlook? Continue reading @ MarketOracle.co.uk |
| 22 Reasons For Economic Collapse Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:44 AM PST 22 Reasons Why We Could See An Economic Collapse In Europe In 2012 from The Economic Collapse Blog:
Will 2012 be the year that we see an economic collapse in Europe? Before you dismiss the title of this article as "alarmist", read the facts listed in the rest of this article first. Over the past several months, there has been an astonishing loss of confidence in the European financial system. Right now, virtually nobody wants to loan money to financially troubled nations in the EU and virtually nobody wants to lend money to major European banks. Remember, one of the primary reasons for the financial crisis of 2008 was a major credit crunch that happened here in the United States. This burgeoning credit crunch in Europe is just one element of a "perfect storm" that is rapidly coming together as we get ready to go into 2012. The signs of trouble are everywhere. All over Europe, governments are implementing austerity measures and dramatically cutting back on spending. European banks are substantially cutting back on lending as they seek to meet new capital requirements that are being imposed upon them. Meanwhile, bond yields are going through the roof all over Europe as investors lose confidence and demand much higher returns for investing in European debt. It has become clear that without a miracle happening, quite a few European nations and a significant number of European banks are not going to be able to get the funding that they need from the market in 2012. The only thing that is going to avert a complete and total financial meltdown in Europe is dramatic action, but right now European leaders are so busy squabbling with each other that a bold plan seems out of the question. |
| Volatile silver up 18% in 12 months lagging gold’s 25% gain, can silver catch up? Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:36 AM PST Precious metal investors have little to complain about with gold up 25 per cent and silver by 18 per cent in the past 12 months. By comparison many equity investors have lost money. But behind this gain has been some pretty staggering volatility. |
| Trader alert: Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:27 AM PST From Kimble Charting Solutions: Stocks and commodities are moving a good deal higher today... wanted to check the action of the U.S. dollar today, which may have had a good deal to do with a hard down week last week. The dollar continues to find its 38% Fib level important. It broke above this resistance level last week... and this morning, declined to test the breakout. On a single day, the dollar created a rather bullish wick as it tested dual support! The dollar is now getting wedged between... Read full article (with chart)... More trading ideas: Stocks could be approaching a major breakout Surprising charts show a bottom in stocks could be forming Top strategist Ritholtz: Euro crisis could cause stocks to "grind up" |
| This dominant commodity stock is nearly as cheap as it was in 2008 Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:21 AM PST From South of Wall Street: Despite the concerns over whether or not China is going to collapse, I like BHP in here. CLSA included the graphics below in a note out of Australia discussing the impact of Shale gas on BHP's valuation. Its a good note, and they speculate that gas will likely be spun out. DB commented on the same issue last week, noting: BHPB's challenge continues to be convincing investors that buying a potentially loss-making business today, is good for returns over the longer term. This simply highlights the dichotomy of investment horizons in the equity market versus that of a capex intensive company. However, it is BHPB's size that allows them to take on this risk.. I hold BHP, sell calls on it, and buy more every time... Read full article... More on commodities: This China gold story could literally change your life This country could see the next huge shale gas boom Casey Research: Stay away from these popular income stocks now |
| Ron Paul explains his plan to save the U.S. dollar Posted: 29 Nov 2011 12:14 AM PST From Zero Hedge: Ron Paul lays it out: "We know what to do – we did it once after the Civil War period, we went from a paper standard back to the gold standard, and the event wasn't that dramatic. But today, the big problem is that both the conservatives and liberals have a big apetite for big government for different reasons. Therefore, they need the Fed to tie them over and monetize the debt. So if you don't get rid of that appetite, it's going to be more difficult... but the transition isn't that difficult. "You have to get your house in order, you have to balance the budget, you have to not run up debt, and you have to promise not to print any more money... I would like to have a transition period and just legalize gold money, gold and silver as legal tender, and... Read full article... More from Ron Paul: This is the biggest Ron Paul news of the year Ron Paul killed in last night's presidential debate Six reasons why Ron Paul should NOT be president |
| Got Gold Report – Season of Blue Posted: 28 Nov 2011 11:55 PM PST We 'enjoy' multiple 'hits' on our lower-than-low super negative liquidity blue panic targets to take meaningful positions on some of our resource company 'Faves.' HOUSTON (Got Gold Report) – Monday's snap rally notwithstanding, gold and silver have come under pressure from yet another rush to liquidity and we note with no small measure of concern that this past thin-liquidity, holiday-influenced week saw almost all commodities under material selling pressure. When just about everything is selling off and only the U.S. dollar index is sharply higher, it is a sure signal that the world has gone into a heightened fear mode again. For reference, the charts below were as of Friday's close. Fear may not be very good for commodities, but it is 'good' for Vulture Bargain Hunting. As imperfect and unsatisfactory as it may be, the U.S. dollar is still the place people flee to in a time of crisis. We may sound like a broken record, but we wonder how much longer the dollar holds the lead in that role over gold metal. Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) will find much more about the gold and silver markets on our technical charts located on the password-protected subscriber pages. For this particular GGR we wish to focus on the small miners and explorers we love to 'game' once more. Why? Because quite a few of them are nearing or already at the 'panic targets' we have chosen and we are heading into the peak of the retail tax loss selling season right now. So, what are those panic targets all about, anyway? Season of Blue It doesn't take very much study of the capital markets to reach a foundational conclusion all speculators should understand. The notion has been expressed in many ways over the years in relation to all kinds of markets. The concept is as elegantly simple as it is extremely powerful. Simply stated: Market extremes are nearly always temporary and nearly always reversed in time. Look at the trading history of any market or most any stock on long term charts and the price record reflects periods of positive and negative liquidity. Bull market or bear, there are peaks and valleys in all of them. Invariably when periods of extreme exuberance or panic show they are corrected by the market. That is the raw essence of positive and negative liquidity in a visual record. When we look down the list of small junior mining and exploration companies we have taken an interest in, in November of 2011, we get a full lesson in how volatility can increase to extreme levels in periods of high anxiety and uncertainty. With capital flight from Europe, fear of Eurozone contagion, Big Market and commodity weakness, tax loss selling in the U.S. and Canada and a rush to liquidity underway simultaneously, we all find ourselves in the midst of another heavy negative liquidity event, a bargain hunter's paradise. It was only eight months ago that we lamented in these pages that small resource company bargains were few and far between. That was while we were still reducing size in our positioning, raising speculation ammunition in what we call our Bargain War Chest. Back then sellers were few and buyers were many. Today, by contrast, bargain hunting for small miners and explorers is a target-rich environment. Relative to then there are bargains galore, a testament to how much this current market is dominated by fear. Today buyers are few and sellers are many. (CDNX 4-year, weekly. This has already been the second largest correction of the CDNX ever. As much as 47% as of October 5.) James Carville's voice: "It's the Liquidity, Stupid" At times like this we think it is worth the time to review a basic tenant of what we do as speculators. Asset prices are always a function of liquidity. Indeed we can boil most any market down to that one idea. No matter the market, the price is dependent on whether liquidity is flowing in or out of that market. If more wealth is flowing into a market than leaving it, prices rise … and vice versa. When investors/speculators are excited and energized they are prone to bid assets higher in price. They buy today on the expectation of higher prices in the future. They buy today because they fear that if they don't buy today the price will be higher tomorrow. If investors/speculators become euphoric, they can bid prices up out of proportion to reality. Sellers are rewarded for waiting. Buyers are punished for waiting because in a positive liquidity event prices tend to rise and keep rising. It takes more wealth entering an issue or market to have a positive liquidity event. The flip side of the resource market coin is when investors/speculators are worried, fearful and uncertain. When the majority of potential buyers are scared prices tend to fall as liquidity is consistently wrung from the issue/market. In a negative liquidity event traders sell today because they fear that if they don't sell today the price will be lower tomorrow. If enough people become panicky in that process they can sell the issue/market down all out of proportion to reality. Buyers are rewarded for waiting because by waiting they see consistently lower prices. Sellers are punished for waiting for the same reason. Such a scenario feeds on itself up to a point. It only takes the absence of buying for a market to move lower. In a negative liquidity event more wealth is leaving the market than entering. Value Irrelevant In both cases, extreme fear or euphoria, "value" becomes an abstraction. There is nothing "real" about the price of something at extremes of positive or negative liquidity events. In extreme events prices merely reflect the imbalance of buyers and sellers, nothing more or less. Indeed, our experience is that for smaller, less liquid and more speculative miners and explorers "valuation" is fairly difficult to measure, but in the end is not really all that important. Much more important for speculators is to discover and to exploit increasing or decreasing liquidity or money flow. In a panic scenario, for example, a portion of the investors/speculators succumb to irrational fear – even when the issue has already been trounced by 75%, 80% or 90% as if they fear the issue could go "no-bid" (to zero). Nothing else explains why an issue that the actor thought was a "good buy" at $2.00 per share is summarily thrown overboard during a panic negative liquidity event even though the price has fallen to 10% to 25% of $2.00 ($0.20 to $0.50). That's assuming nothing has affected the company in a material fundamental way and the selling pressure is sector or market wide. Vultures Provide Liquidity in Extreme Negative Liquidity Events Enter the bargain hunting specialists. We call ourselves Vultures. If nothing has changed for the company or its prospects, but it has come under extreme or panic selling pressure, due to non-company specific (outside) influences – so much so as to drive the price down to irrationally low bargain pricing (relative to the history of the issue) we Vultures are energized to take a position or to add to the positions we have already established. We do so in the secure knowledge of two important driving forces – market extremes are temporary; the market cannot stay in a hyper negative or panic state for very long, and reversals out of extremes tend to be initially violent, then self-reinforcing – in both directions. Successful Vulture speculators develop the courage and confidence to do the opposite of the market at extremes. As much as possible they (we) strive to buy when there is extreme negative liquidity and reduce exposure when there is euphoria or irrational exuberance. (Easy to say, not always easy to do, especially for new, fledgling Vultures who have not yet experienced a full reversal of sentiment and liquidity. Most especially difficult for people who aspire to be a Vulture, but have not yet developed the patience required to be one.) Targets Need Not Be Perfect, but We Need Targets We operate our own business of position taking in the small junior miners and explorers in areas or zones where we expect strong support to form under a set of market assumptions, using the technical trading history of the stock itself as one guide. That works especially well in "normal" markets with "normal" ebbing and flowing liquidity. Our Vulture readers will know intuitively that we are referring to our purple "op boxes" on the individual charts of the Vulture Bargain issues for those expected zones of normal support. Somewhere below the purple box we also usually employ a green price range target box, meant to attempt to predict where very strong support might form in an ordinary negative liquidity event, either for the issue itself or for the markets. We rely on our experience with the small resource company "sector" in the placement of those green "op boxes." The green boxes are intended to capture an additional tranche of the issue in the event of an anomalous sell/buy imbalance. The green box is where, under non-extreme panic conditions we would expect insiders, deep discount bargain specialists and large bargain loving Vultures to soak up all comers on the sell side. In "normal" negative liquidity events the green box is where we usually become more aggressive on the buy side. CDNX Still Discounting $400 Gold (CDNX, 10-year, monthly.) Right now is anything but a "normal" market, however. We are without question in the midst of the second strongest negative liquidity event for the small junior miners in our memory. We need only look at the graph above to confirm that notion. The graph is of the Canadian Venture Exchange Index or CDNX a reasonable proxy for The Little Guys (data as of Friday, November 25). Notice, please that the CDNX is currently trading at about the same level as it did in September of 2003, back when the price of gold had not yet taken out $400 and the price of silver was below $5. Notice also that measured from the previous peak, we are involved in the second largest "correction" for the CDNX since the precious metals bull markets began. This is not, repeat not, a "normal" market correction, which will come as no surprise to Vultures. Instead, this is one of those rare market events where extreme sell/buy imbalances are to be expected – for a time. Therefore we cannot rely on the "normal" zones of where we expect strong support to form on our Little Guy charts. Rare periods like now, when people lock up in fear; when there is an overabundance of negative liquidity, virtually all of the small resource companies in our universe are affected. Under these conditions we can expect and position for extreme bargains. That is why a couple months back we chose to temporarily abandon our "normal" opportunity boxes and chose extremely low, panic event target pricing. Vultures know we are referring to the target zones on our tracking charts in blue. The "Temporary Panic Targets" for most of the issues we track on technical charts here at Got Gold Report. The blue panic event targets are an attempt to position where we would expect support to form even in a panic event such as the one now. Our object is not, repeat not, to guess where the lowest trade will occur on an issue, or to "pick a bottom." In a panic negative liquidity event no price is "safe." It is extraordinarily difficult to gauge in advance how much irrational selling pressure will occur for a particular issue or how low the price might go in extremis. It will neither surprise us nor disappoint us should the price actually travel beneath our chosen blue targets for some issues. Just one very large last minute tax loss seller can wreak temporary havoc on any of these thinly traded issues and that just comes with the territory from October to December. Instead, the object of the blue target boxes is to acquire a tranche of the issue of meaningful size that we are as reasonably sure as we can be under the circumstances, that will look very low priced 6 months, a year or two years hence – once the conditions that prompted the extreme negative liquidity event have faded to the background. It really is as simple as that. Just below is one example (of 35 that we share with Vultures) of the target boxes, including our temporary blue panic event target box. This one happens to be for Argus Metals (AML.V), a junior explorer operating in the Yukon. The Yukon area play issues have been particularly hard hit in this panic negative liquidity event. In part because they were irrationally bid up in late 2010 and early 2011 and there has been general disappointment selling due to backlogs in assays and not enough discovery news to offset the market wide rush to liquidity. In short, the Yukon issues went too high and are now over-correcting too low in our estimation. Excellent Vulture fodder in other words. (Argus Metals, 2-year, weekly. Note that Argus enjoyed popular enthusiasm at the beginning of the year but has now been decimated by an extreme negative liquidity event. On our actual charts the purple and green op boxes have been colored light gray, meaning they are no longer in play. They are shown here to illustrate where we would have looked for support to form under more normal conditions. Note that the extreme negative liquidity event underway now has rendered Argus down to all time lows although there has been no material change to the company we are aware of.) Two months ago 500,000 shares of AML.V changed hands for $92,500 (at $0.185). On about October 5, one could have been on the bid and acquired 500,000 shares for less than $25,000 (more than 70% lower). The chart for Argus is not unique, it is representative of a group of Yukon explorers similarly situated. We believe it to be an opportunity, but we are getting ahead of our message for this report. With that introduction, let's pause here and move directly into the full Got Gold Report. Got Gold Report First things first, the Got Gold Report – the full report – is published biweekly at least 24 times per year. Between reports we communicate more regularly on the GGR web log, which is always free and open to the public, or in our COT Flash reports and Vulture Bargain Hunter reports reserved exclusively for subscribers. COT Flash reports appear on off weeks for the Got Gold Report when there are what we consider important changes in the commitments of traders reports which cannot wait until the next full report. Vulture Bargain Hunter offerings appear ad hoc as there are developments we feel merit comment for and in the resource company issues we track closely. Our aim is to briefly summarize our positioning for the gold and silver markets, and also to highlight a few of the dozens of indicators, ratios and graphs we keep in constant touch with. Vultures, after logging in, please see the commentary in our numerous technical charts located in their own section of the password-protected subscriber pages. We update most of the Got Gold Report linked charts each week, sometimes even the weekends when we don't publish the full report. Changes to the linked charts are almost always completed by 6:00 pm ET on Sunday evening (except when Monday is a holiday) and occasionally during the week as events unfold. To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership. |
| No Free Markets Anymore, Just Manipulations: Marc Faber Posted: 28 Nov 2011 09:13 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverI was more than happy to see gold spike up at the open of trading in New York on Sunday night...along with another quick jump in the price when trading began in the Far East on their Monday morning. There was also another tiny rally at the London open...and again shortly before 1:00 p.m. That last rally ran into a buyer at the $1,720 level [gold's high price tick of the day] just before 9:00 a.m. in New York...and from there, gold drifted gently lower into the close. The gold price closed at $1,709.90 spot...up $29.60 on the day. Gross volume was an immense 332,200 contracts. A lot of it was roll-over and spread related. Ted Butler said that Monday [not Friday, like I said in my Saturday column] was the last day for the large traders to exit the December contract. They obviously did...and in droves.
Silver more or less followed the same price path as gold...except silver's high tick of the day [$32.41 spot] came moments after the close of Comex trading...around 1:45 p.m. Eastern time. From that high, the silver price got sold off a hair over two percent going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. The spot silver price closed at $32.06...up $1.08 on the day. Gross silver volume was in the neighbourhood of 75,500 contracts. Like gold, the vast majority of that volume was roll-over or spread related...all of which will be in Friday's Commitment of Traders report.
The dollar gapped down about 60 basis points right of the chute on Sunday night...and then flopped around until just before 3:00 a.m. Eastern time. Then it fell some more...with the low tick of the day occurring about 5:20 a.m. Eastern. From there, the dollar spend most of the rest of Monday trying to recover its earlier losses, but still finished down 60 points. The gap up in gold...and the gap down in the dollar that occurred at the Sunday night open, is just about the only time that there was any co-relation between the dollar and the gold price. If you can find any other relationship during the Monday trading day, I'd love to hear from you.
The gold stocks peaked shortly after the equity markets opened...and then trended lower until 3:15 p.m. in New York when gold caught a bit of bid in the electronic market...and the stocks rallied a bit into the close. The HUI finished up 2.44% on the day. INO's HUI chart is still MIA...and I thank reader Scott Plushau for providing this substitute for our viewing pleasure. The 'click to enlarge' feature might prove useful here.
(Click on image to enlarge) The silver stocks did particularly well yesterday but, like their golden cousins, they did not finish on their highs. But, having said all that, Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was up a very healthy 4.33%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 1 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. Except for a small handful of contracts, that should pretty much do it for the November delivery month. The CME will post November's final numbers...plus the delivery figures for First Day Notice in the December delivery month...on their website later this evening. Neither GLD nor SLV reported any changes yesterday. There was another sales report from the U.S. Mint on Monday. The sold 5,000 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 300,000 silver eagles. With only two reporting days left in the month, the U.S. Mint has sold 41,000 ounces of gold eagles...8,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,284,000 silver eagles. Not surprisingly, last Friday was a very slow day over at the Comex-approved depositories. They reported receiving 4,041 ounces of silver...and shipped 25,917 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The Commitment of Traders report, for positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday, November 22nd, was released yesterday. The silver numbers looked about right. The Commercial net short position declined by 4,561 contracts. About two thirds of that was the small Commercial traders [Ted Butler's raptors] going long as the price was engineered lower...and the balance was the '1 through 8' covering short positions. One thing that I was looking for, was any sign that the technical funds were going short during the reporting week, but the COT put an end to that speculation, as there were no signs of it at all. As soon as I saw the gold numbers, I knew that something was amiss...and silver analyst Ted Butler confirmed that when I spoke to him on the phone shortly after the report was posted on the CFTC's website. Rather than me explain it...here are Ted's comments to his paid subscribers... "In gold, while we did have a reduction in the total commercial net short position of 11,700 contracts to 192,400 contracts, my guess is that it should have been double that. In short, some numbers in this week's gold report looked "hinkey" or strange and unusual. The big 4 reduced their net short position by a whopping 24,000 contracts to the lowest level in years, while the big 5 thru 8 remained unchanged. In addition, the gold raptors added 12,000 contracts to their short position, making this the first time in memory that they added big to shorts on a big down move in price. I don't think that occurred. Topping it off, there were also very strange increases in the non-reportable gross short category of 13,000 contracts and a similar size decrease in the gross short category of the other reportable in the disaggregated report. Finally, in the disaggregated report, the decrease in the swap dealers' gross long position of almost 12,000 contracts looked odd. In short, the gold COT looks off. Maybe it has to do with the MF Global mess; maybe just too much turkey and pumpkin pie over the holiday by the compilers. In any event, there should be a correction offered...or maybe just a snap back in this coming week's report. And if I'm completely wrong to suggest some kind of data mess-up and the big 4 did reduce their net short position while the gold raptors added big to the short side, it's a double-cross we can all live with." Here's an interesting chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way yesterday. If gold and silver aren't your bag, then how about wine? Win or lose, you can still drink the stuff at the end of the day. I'm going long six cases of Amarone and ten cases of Châteauneuf-du-Pape as soon as the markets open this morning!
(Click on image to enlarge) Before heading into today's long list of stories, here's a little tidbit that south London reader "Mel" sent me yesterday about the British silver bullion coin, the "Britannia". The 2012 bullion coins are now available...and this is what Mel had to say about them... "The mint's website now shows the UK Royal Mint's 2012 price for a one-ounce silver bullion coin. In previous years, this price has been anywhere from 5-15% higher than the price at which you could purchase a single bullion coin from a coin dealer, and around a 20-30% premium to spot. Now the Royal Mint has priced for 2012 at a 187% premium to the current spot price, and around a 100% premium to the dealer price for a single coin." And in an e-mail from Mel in the wee hours of this morning, he advised that the premiums on the new British gold sovereigns are just as bad. Well, they won't be selling many at that price...at least not to me. I think I'll just stick with what I've always bought...generic rounds and bars...the best value for the money. It was a busy weekend for stories and, once again, you get to pick and choose. The law of diminishing returns applies in spades at this point...but you just never know what these crooks are going to do next. Collapse of gold and silver points to skullduggery: John Embry. Why Your Favorite Gold Stock Will Someday Sell for $200. Auerback, Naylor-Leyland cite gold suppression; Turk expects silver blastoff. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeFitch Revises US Outlook To NegativeThe Negative Outlook indicates a slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Fitch will shortly publish its revised economic and fiscal projections for the U.S. and will conduct a further review of its sovereign ratings in 2012. However, in the absence of material adverse shocks, Fitch does not expect to resolve the Negative Outlook until late 2013, taking into account any deficit-reduction strategy that emerges after Congressional and Presidential elections. Let's call a spade a shovel, here...U.S. bonds should be rated junk, just like everyone else's...as they're never going to be repaid...ever. And if they are repaid, it will be in dollars that are only worth a tiny fraction of what they're purchasing power is today. This story was imbedded in a zerohedge.com posting yesterday...and I thank reader Matthew Nel for sending it along. The link is here.  Secret Fed Loans Undisclosed to Congress Helped Banks Net $13 BillionThe Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing. The Fed didn't tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn't mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed's below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue. This Bloomberg story was posted on their website late Sunday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to my attention. The link is here. This story was also posted in a GATA release yesterday as well...and this is what Chris Powell had to say about it in the preamble to the story..."Most of the Federal Reserve's gold records, sought by GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit, remain secret. Outside the Fed itself, only two people claim to know everything the Fed is doing secretly in the gold market -- Kitco gold market analyst Jon Nadler...and CPM Group Managing Director Jeff Christian. And they say the Fed is doing nothing secretly there. We are to believe that the gold market is the only market in which the Fed doesn't intervene secretly."  Citigroup's $285 million SEC settlement rejectedA judge rejected a proposed $285 million mortgage securities fraud settlement between Citigroup and the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, saying the deal was "neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest." Judge Jed Rakoff said that the settlement announced last month, under which Citi neither admitted nor denied the SEC's allegations, deprived the public "of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importance." He instead ordered Citi to face trial over the allegations in July 2012. The SEC's pattern of allowing big banks to reach settlements without admitting or denying wrongdoing, Rakoff added, has been "hallowed by history, but not by reason." I get a warm feeling all over knowing that there's at least one judge out there that's not bought and paid for by Wall Street and the banks. This story was posted over at money.cnn.com yesterday...and I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending it. It's well worth the read...and the link is here.  No free markets anymore, just manipulations, Faber tells King World NewsMarket analyst and financial letter writer Marc Faber told King World News yesterday that there aren't any free markets anymore, just manipulations by governments, a theme of GATA's for 3 1/2 years. A summary of Faber's interview has been posted at the King World News blog here...and it's well worth the read.  MF Global Canada forex clients to get money back by Dec. 2ndForeign-exchange clients of MF Global Canada Co. will get all their money by Dec. 2 after having been excluded from an earlier agreement, said the trustee for the bankrupt brokerage. The Ontario Superior Court of Justice has authorized cash payment to MF Global's 2,500 foreign-exchange clients, KPMG Inc., the court-appointed trustee, said Friday. KPMG had said a week ago that it aimed to make the |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:58 PM PST Market update as of November 25, 2011. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 11257 -236.17 on normal volume and falling momentum. Support is 11250 and resistance is 11,500. Technically, the Dow broke down and through a support channel line at 11,550 this week. Next lower, major support is 11,000. German bond sales' failures created selling in most all markets today as this sector was supposed to be solid. Bond traders are ruthless on price and yield and today's fallout demonstrated what they can do. Friday markets will be open until two pm; closing two hours earlier than normal. Expect light volume on Friday and lots of non-decision unless some good news pops-up in Europe. Most traders and investors will stand aside until next week's Monday open. We recommend no trading until Monday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1161.79 -26.25 on 90% of normal volume and falling momentum. All moving averages and supporting channel lines were broken on harder selling, just like the Dow. New support is 1150 and resistance is 1175-1180. Price is way under the 200-day moving average at 1234.87. I can see this index selling down to 1125 and maybe even 1100 over Friday and Monday. Stay out of this index until Monday. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 524.03 -11.33 on normal volume and falling momentum. Support is 520 and resistance is 540. The closing bar like the other indexes, signals a hard selling event with more to come. A worst case here in our view would be 500.00 unless more, very nasty European news arrives. These are big stocks and they are being sold; fearful of something worse just ahead in the markets. However, we expect new rallies in all the indexes on December 5-7 next month. November, for the most part is ruined on selling and a holiday time out. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2166.54 -49.79 on 95% of normal volume and falling momentum. Support is 2150 and resistance is 2200. This market is the index leader and probably sold-off with more power than the others. This tells us more selling on Friday, or at least most investors and traders simply staying out and going flat. If the selling velocity continues, the next major support is 2050, signaling another 100 points down, or more. Europe had better find a solution, or the very serious selling could quickly occur ever faster ruining the forecast Santa's Rally. I have faith in the market-proppers to provide some media solution. Happy news is the usual way out; genuine or not. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 145.34 +1.61 as traders sold Europe and bought USA paper. Momentum is up and should remain so until the stock markets base and recover for new buying. I now see a bear triple top in the making with perhaps one more buying event remaining for the bonds producing a quadruple top…a double in September-October and another one in the making for November-December. I do not expect the 4th leg double top to materialize but rather expect some kind of happy Europe news to prop-up hope, creating a buy stocks and sell bonds environment. There is very hard resistance nearby at 146.00. Support is 142.50. Stay out. GDXJ Junior Gold Miners and XAU: The XAU closed at 189.71 -5.50 on falling momentum and a flat to down metal-to-shares-ratio. This is very accurate and signals more selling until probably 12-5-11. Support and resistance is 190. Price is under all moving averages near 200. There is a wide and broad continuation triangle forming, which I think is a prelude for a major rally beginning next month. This might produce the most upside from later January to April 1 with two major corrective cycles in the middle. When Euro-land settles down, at least briefly, and stocks rise with selling bonds, the XAU should begin to rally, taking price back up to 210 by December 15th. Wait on new positions and be sure the floor is in before new buying begins. We will alert. The GDXJ is showing a similar chart but seems to be selling-off even faster. The close was 27.26 -1.00 on falling momentum and normal volume. All of our recommendations were in the red today as was our 11 market real time trading screen. Only the US Dollar and 30-year bonds were buyers on this day. We can see nearby GDXJ support at 26.00; not too far away. We prefer this index over the XAU and trust its accuracy. Look for junior miners to support and begin buying by 12-5 or 12-7 early next month. Gold: Closed at 1692.90 -5.80 after selling down to 1677 earlier in the session. Momentum has turned down but pressures remain to the buy side. There was very little selling before this holiday weekend. We suspect traders want to be in and long over what could be very interesting markets during the next four days. Keep in mind, while we enjoy turkey day, other nations are busy trading against what happened in this mess today. Support is 1692.50 with resistance at 1699, say 1708. We have hard channel support at 1650 and smaller intermediate support at 1665-1675-1685 and then 1692.50 just under the close. Hold your positions but wait to purchase any new ones. Silver: Closed at 31.73 -1.00 after selling back to 31.22 with a high of 32.87 resistance. Silver is firm above $30. Momentum is down mildly but not too strongly. Silver wants to be a buyer but was stopped with this Europe stuff today. Yesterday silver was up over +5%. Today it went down -3.7 %. Price is just under moving average resistance points at 32.85, 33.19, 34.12 and 34.51 with the last three numbers moving averages. We need the price to move up and through $35.00 and hold, to continue on the next run to 38.85 resistance. We ought to see at least $35-$36 next month and most probably meet harder resistance at $38.85. US Dollar: Closed at 79.10 +0.83 with futures at 79.29. We are very close to a recent high on October 1 just under 80.00. This 80.00 number on the dollar index is a very long term moving average magnet number. New support is 79.00 with resistance at 80.00. The dollar made a major advance of over +1.1% today on a falling and selling Euro. Today's breakout is a new wave one telling us we could see four more waves up to the buy side. This could turn out to be smaller than expected, or overshoot to harder resistance at 80.00 to 81.00, 81.50 or even 82.50 as a hard top. Watch for the US dollar to stall at 80.00 and the Euro to regain some ground after being over-sold. If more bad news arrives this weekend, or next week, there is more Euro selling to 132.50 from today's close at 133.40. Then, the dollar would make its move on 80.00 and perhaps overshoot to a higher resistance number we just listed. Crude Oil: Closed at 96.17 -1.48 with the close resting on 95.00-96.00 major support. Oil hit $103 resistance on our forecast and began to sell. Momentum peaked and turned down. Price fell a touch under the longer range bull rising channel line, rolling up from October 1 to November 15th. The close is above all moving averages and appears well supported on the 20-day moving average at 95.80. Oil is still in the bull mode with demand and reserves in line for more buying. We might go back to 92.50 support but then a new rally can begin with another assault on higher prices toward $106.50 resistance. Our forecast is $120.00 on a high during the first quarter of 2012. CRB Index: Closed at 306.73 -4.20 on falling momentum and closing on a bear down bar. The trading range is getting smaller telling us a new base is near. New support is 300.00. Resistance is 310. Moving averages are higher at 315, 317, and 324.48. The highest being the 200-day moving average. We are nearing the annual larger bull cycle that last year took price from 290 to too a May 1 high of 370. Get ready for higher prices on inflation, more taxes, and intense market pressures. -Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| LISTEN: Arch Crawford talks Gold with Chris Waltzek Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:36 PM PST
About Gold Seek Radio: More interviews @ radio.goldseek.com |
by David Levenstein, 
News yesterday of possible support for the eurozone from the International Monetary Fund sent investors scurrying for equities and commodities, with decent gains on stock markets around the world. Details from the mainstream press of how the IMF will help are vague at the moment though, 
A few months ago the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez announced that he intented to repatriate the country's gold reserves from abroad. Last Friday the first gold bars arrived at Caracas airport. Chavez dramatised the transportation of the gold bars by having his political supporters cheer the motorcade on its journey from Maiqueta airport to the central bank. Venezuela's repatriation caught international attention. Global investors interpret Chavez's move as a snub to countries such as the US and the UK, which have been storing Venezuelan gold in vaults in New York and London.
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