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Thursday, November 3, 2011

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Euro Bazooka Turning On Itself - Or Is There A Silver Lining?

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 05:02 AM PDT

By Shareholders Unite:

Can we be surprised with the Greek referendum? Consider Greece's plight, as summed up by The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard:

Greece has been subjected to the greatest fiscal squeeze ever attempted in a modern industrial state, without any offsetting monetary stimulus or devaluation. The economy has so far collapsed by 14pc to 16pc since the peak – depending who you ask – and is spiralling downwards at a vertiginous pace. [The Telegraph]

Not only do the Greeks not feel 'rescued,' their democracy has been flattened by the Merkozy/IMF/EU steamroller. And indeed, fighting 'the markets' doesn't provide much time for the democratic process in a world where undersea cables are being build to the tune of several hundred million dollars with the sole purpose of shaving some 7 milliseconds of trading access.

Democracy and financial markets simply move at vastly different speeds and can be at loggerheads, and countries can only ignore their


Complete Story »

Eldorado Gold's CEO Discusses Q3 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 04:50 AM PDT

Eldorado Gold (EGO)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call

November 03, 2011 11:30 am ET

Executives

Fabiana Chubbs - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Risk Manager

Norm Pitcher - Chief Operating Officer

Paul N. Wright - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Nancy E. Woo - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analysts

Anita Soni - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

Josh Wolfson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Eldorado Gold Corporation Third Quarter Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. This call is also being webcast and is available on the Eldorado Gold website at www.eldoradogold.com. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Nancy Woo. Please go ahead, Ms. Woo.

Nancy E. Woo

Thank you, operator. This presentation includes statements that may constitute forward-looking statements or information. Any forward-looking statements made and information provided reflect our current


Complete Story »

Gerald Celente talks Gold with Alasdair Macleod

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 04:17 AM PDT

Gerald Celente, Founder of Trendsresearch and Alasdair Macleod of the GoldMoney Foundation, talk about his work at the Trends Research Institute. Gerald talks about himself and how he started covering global trends. He talks about his experience in politics and how he became a political atheist.

They talk about the role of fiat money in creating our economic problems. Gerald Celente explains that he has been looking at gold since the beginning of the bull market, he missed the low of 250$ per ounce by only 25$. They talk about 1987, the bubble of the 1990s and the money printing that caused it. They talk about the lowering of interest rates after 2001. Gerald calls it cheap money: 'the more you print the cheaper it gets'. He says that digital dollars are not worth the paper that they are not printed on. They talk about the panic of 2008 and how every central bank started printing massively to "keep the Ponzi scheme going".

Gold’s Simplicity Is Its strength

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 03:05 AM PDT

From Gold Money:
Last week saw relief in financial markets. The Greek debt deal – under which private holders of Greek debt would agree to take a 50% "haircut" on their bonds – had supposedly "saved the day", at least judging by the wild rises in stock and commodity prices.

But now here we are, barely a week later, once again facing the prospect of a meltdown in the eurozone, prompted by the news that Greece's ruling party has decided to put the bailout package to the public ballot in a referendum to be held early next year.

So with Greece once again on the rack and the financial situation deteriorating in Italy day-by-day, what is it that has bought Europe to this horrific pass?

In The Tragedy of the Euro, Mr Phillip Bagus explains how European governments and European banks have been able to take advantage of the ECB's monetary production/supply policy. For example, the only reason why European governments have been able to deficit spend billions and billions of euros is because their bonds are in high demand from European banks, who purchase these bonds and then use them as collateral with the ECB in order to obtain short-term loans of newly created euros from the ECB. When the European banks receive the new money from these repo-type deals, they engage in credit expansion. This then leads to more deposits building up at these same banks (courtesy of fractional reserve banking's multiplier effect) which in turn permits the banks to buy more governments bonds in order to place them as collateral at the ECB for even more new money.

That is the vicious cycle. Hence, no amount of summits, economists, or central bankers can fix this broken system.

In fact, the only thing which can fix it is sound money: namely, gold. The reason why is simple: Under a gold standard, the only role of a central bank – if one is present at all – is to make sure that it never issues more bank notes than it can redeem in gold bullion. It cannot engage in endless money creation in exchange for government bonds because its money supply is limited by its gold reserves. Gold demands the central bank maintain fiscal soundness. Simply put, gold forces governments and central banks to act wisely.

Thus, there is no need for any "crisis-summits" under a gold standard. Only gold.

Read more @ GoldMoney.com

LISTEN: The Fundamental Drivers Of Silver

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 02:52 AM PDT

From Jim Puplava and Financial Sense:

Ross Hansen: It now costs the US Government eight cents to mint one penny

Ross Hansen on the Fundamental Drivers of Silver: Investment Demand and Industrial Demand

Jim welcomes Ross Hansen, CEO of Northwest Territorial Mint, the largest private mint in the US, to discuss the supply and demand characteristics of the silver market and assess the price outlook.

Much More @ FinancialSense.com 

US Mint Sales Show Buyers Want Silver

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 02:51 AM PDT

From Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of silver coin investor:
The US Mint released its silver sales figures, relaying to investors what was already known—investors want silver, and silver only. The Mint ran into problems during September, taking more orders for coins than it had available in uncirculated condition. As of October 21, the problem in supplying the market with uncirculated coins has been smoothed out, and the market remains hungry for silver coins of all types, except those closest to numismatic coins.

The American Silver Eagle proof coins proved best in the most recent tally. Suspended during September, the coins boasted a 2% increase in sales as investors flock to anything silver. To see such incredible demand for a proof coin shows that there may be a fundamental change in the silver market.

Silver for Retirement
Silver investors aren't picky when it comes to their silver. Seeking to preserve their purchasing power or profit on a rising silver price, investors seek out the coins that provide the most possible silver for the smallest cash outlay. Traditionally, proofs and other coins have been slow sellers with collectors because they offer some of the highest premiums.

The rise in sales for American Eagle proofs also contrasts in light of weak sales for another mostly numismatic coin, the 9/11 commemorative silver medal produced by the US Mint. The coin launched into a market that wasn't exactly ready to buy with open wallets as it was willing to purchase silver Eagles.

These two data points may show a growing rift in the market. The commemorative proof coin can't seem to find the volume that the silver eagle finds, even on a percentage basis. Eagle proof demand rose, while 9/11 coins couldn't find enough traction to avoid a sales decline.

This should lead careful analysts of the silver market to think that silver coins may be going institutional—economically institutional, that is.

There are only a few choices for bullion investments in retirement accounts. Through the tax code which unfairly punishes bullion investors, the US government also makes certain that retirement savers don't get their moneys' worth in bullion purchases. Modern IRAs, which can be invested in just about anything, cannot be invested in physical metals outside of a few choice silver bullion pieces—American Eagles, Canadian Maples, and Austrian Philharmonics—as well as bars from approved mints.

Knowing that most every coin dealer has a special selection of IRA approved products mostly filled with proof US Mint coins, it appears that IRA buyers are finally picking up steam. If it weren't for the IRA, demand for all proofs would likely be constant—the market gives us numbers large enough that we would see a normal distribution in silver purchases. Proofs are proofs, and silver is silver.

When one proof coin sees improving demand while another falters, one must think that it is retirement savers that are driving the market. Coin dealers rarely add temporary silver medals or coins to their IRA stock, as there's no way to be certain that supplies will exist for orders. Production is usually limited.

While IRAs may not be the best investment account to hold silver, it is encouraging to see more people rely on the savings power of metals to fight an inflationary climate. Past the numismatic premium, expensive silver is still better than expensive paper.

Gold Spikes Above Resistance at $1,750 – Higher in All Currencies on Contagion Risk

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 02:41 AM PDT

US Mint's Gold Bullion Coin Sales At Lowest Level In October

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:25 AM PDT

From: Commodity Online:
The United States Mint witnessed lowest monthly sales of the year in OCtober while Silver bullion sales remained at elevated levels. However, silver bullion coin sales marked a decline from the strong numbers of the previous month.

The United States Mint offers 22 karat American Gold Eagles in one ounce, half ounce, quarter ounce, and tenth ounce sizes. Their other gold bullion option is the 24 karat American Gold Buffalo coins available in one ounce size only. For the month, total sales across all options reached 62,500 ounces. This was comprised of 46,000 one ounce Gold Eagles, 12,500 one ounce Gold Buffaloes, and the balance in fractional Gold Eagles.

Read more @ commodityonline.com

Extorre Increases Gold-Silver Resources at Cerro Moro

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:17 AM PDT

Extorre Gold Mines Limited (NYSE-AMEX:XG; TSX:XG; Frankfurt: E1R, "Extorre" or the "Company") is pleased to provide an updated National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate for its Cerro Moro Project, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina.

A deadly epidemic is quietly spreading across the U.S.

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:08 AM PDT

From Newsmax:

The United States is facing an epidemic of lethal overdoses from prescription painkillers, which have tripled in the past decade and now account for more deaths than heroin and cocaine combined.

The quantity of painkillers on the market is so high, it would be enough for every American to swallow a standard dose of Vicodin every four hours for one full month, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"The unfortunate and in fact shocking news is that we are in the midst of an epidemic of prescription drug overdose in this country. It is an epidemic but it can be stopped," said CDC chief Thomas Frieden.

"Now the burden of dangerous drugs is being created more by a few irresponsible doctors than by drug pushers on street corners."

The CDC Vital Signs report focused on...

Read full article...

More Cruxallaneous:

Jim Chanos: China's "hard landing" has officially begun

An outrageous new scandal could bring on a "Lehman 2.0" collapse

Must-read: This "devastating critique" could put an end to the global warming debate

These are some of the best stocks to trade right now

Posted: 03 Nov 2011 01:06 AM PDT

From Bespoke Investment Group:

For traders with a more short-term time horizon, we have compiled a list of the S&P 1500 stocks trading above $10 that have the largest intraday high-low ranges (based on the average percent spread between the intraday high and low over the last 50 days).

We then grouped the stocks based on whether they have a rising or falling 50-day moving average. Stocks highlighted in gray are new to the list this month.

As shown in this month's list, the 50 most volatile stocks above $10 per share all have an average daily move in excess of 6%! Following last month's strong rally, there are now...

Read full article...

More trading ideas:

The U.S. dollar is back at a critical level

Why it could be a great time to short the euro again

Trader alert: Stocks are extraordinarily overbought

Gold price consolidates in face of euro uncertainty

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 10:30 PM PDT

Gold and silver prices moved higher in trading yesterday, supported by a weakening dollar and confirmation from the US Federal Reserve of its continuing easy-money policies. Equities also enjoyed a ...

Gold & Silver Market Morning, November 3, 2011

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 10:00 PM PDT

FAQs: I Want to Buy Gold, but Where Do I Start?

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 09:30 PM PDT

During our 23-year history, Austin Rare Coins & Bullion has worked with tens of thousands of clients just like you. We've helped them discover that financial strength comes through successful planning, balance, and full diversification. The vast majority profited handsomely from our relationship. Over that time, we've noted several frequently asked questions from those who [...]

Bernanke & The Fed Will Ignite Gold & Oil

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:59 PM PDT

From KWN:
With gold, silver and stocks all having big up-moves today, King World News interviewed Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital. KWN asked Schiff about gold, oil and more, but to start we wanted to get his thoughts on the mining shares, "Yeah, I think if you look at the underperformance relative to bullion, they (mining shares) are the cheapest they have ever been. To me this is more evidence that this talk of a gold bubble is just that, talk, because if it was real you would see it in the performance of the mining stocks."

Peter Schiff continues:
"The fact that so few people are willing to buy these stocks is evidence that this is not a bubble. It's a bull market climbing a wall of worry and there is a lot more worry than normal because there is more fear in the bull market than there is greed and that is the antithesis of a bubble. Gold is going higher. You had Ben Bernanke talking today and that's always a good catalyst for gold.

Continue reading @ King World News

Louise Yamada: Special Gold & Silver Report

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:52 PM PDT

From KWN:
With gold still near the $1,750 level and silver roughly $34, today King World News was given the ability to share an extraordinary piece of legendary technical analyst Louise Yamada's "Technical Perspectives" report. This information is not available to the public and we are grateful to Louise for sharing her incredible work with KWN readers globally.

Gold – Hugged the Uptrend Line
By: Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC ("LYA")

November 3 (King World News) – As the dollar pulled back, Gold spot price (GOLDS-1,743.75) has rallied into resistance near 1,760-1,800, having hugged the daily 2008 uptrend line on each pullback (see Figure 32). The 1,600 support has held well over the month as a necessary consolidation came into place. There is a minor positive divergence in the daily momentum, which is slightly higher on the late October price decline to 1,600 than on the late September price move down to 1,600 (see rising arrow on the momentum) presaging the rally potential, as we move into a seasonally positive time of year for Gold.

Continue reading @ King World News

LISTEN: Derivatives Are Destroying The World

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:37 PM PDT

From SGT Report:
My interview with Ranting Andy Hoffman about Derivatives, the MF Global debacle, silve & gold and current events.

Casey Research's David Galland Interviews Tocqueville's John Hathaway

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price rose in fits and starts during the entire Wednesday trading day.  The high price tick came at precisely 11:00 a.m. Eastern time...which was about two minutes before the precise low for the U.S. dollar.  Funny how that works, isn't it.

From that 11:00 a.m. high, gold got sold down to almost unchanged on the day by 1:15 p.m. Eastern time...but then rallied a bit into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York.

Gold finished the day at $1,737.40 spot...up $17.50 on the day. Net volume was nothing special at 133,000 contracts.

The silver price didn't do much of anything until the London open at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time...and even then, a rally of some sort of substance didn't get started until shortly after the London silver fix was in at noon local time.

The high price in silver came at 11:10 a.m. Eastern time, about ten minutes after gold's high.  From that point, the silver price followed a very similar path to gold's right into the end of trading in the New York Access market.

Silver closed the day at $34.27 spot, up 82 cents.  Net volume was around the 29,000 contract mark.

From Tuesday's close, until 11:02 a.m. Eastern time yesterday, the dollar shed about 85 basis points.  From that low, the dollar rallied sharply...and one hour and twenty minutes later the dollar had regained about 55 points of that loss...before trading a hair lower into the Wednesday close.

The gold shares gapped up at the open...and the high price for the stocks came shortly after the high was in for gold.  Then they got sold off as the gold price gave up almost all of it's Wednesday's gains by around 1:15 p.m. Eastern time.  But once the selling pressure disappeared, the gold stocks rallied a bit...but came nowhere near their earlier highs of the day.  However, the HUI finished up respectable 2.27% nonetheless.

With the exception of the odd tiny junior producer, the silver stocks put on a pretty decent show yesterday as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index reflect that by posting a gain of 2.30%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 55 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday.  I wasn't kidding when I said that November was historically a slow delivery month.

Once again there was no reported change in GLD...but over at SLV, a small withdrawal of 130,772 troy ounces was reported, which was probably a fee payment of some kind.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

The Comex-approved depositories showed that they received 327,849 troy ounces of silver on Tuesday...and only shipped out 10,000 ounces.  The link to that action is here.

Silver analyst Ted Butler published his mid-week commentary yesterday...and here's a purloined paragraph for free...

"The first point about MF Global that I would like to make is that I believe the event was primarily responsible for the sudden take down in the price of silver and other commodities yesterday and Monday. Here's my reasoning. MF Global was one of the largest clearing (guaranteeing) firms of all, including being the largest on the NYMEX/COMEX (according to MFG's web site). Since we know that JPMorgan and other large commercial clearing firms on the COMEX are the big shorts in silver and therefore wouldn't rely on MF Global for clearing purposes since they clear their own trades, it is most probable that MFG held a net long position for its customers in COMEX silver. Since the immediate fall-out of the race to bankruptcy was customer account freezing and then an order for liquidation only, it stands to reason that long silver contracts would be among the first to be liquidated, especially if prices started off lower just prior to the freeze (which they did). The resultant fall in the silver price fueled more silver long contract liquidation by MFG customers. As is the case in times of emergency and panic, more attention is given to those leveraged positions which continue to generate loss. Any short contracts held in liquidation-only accounts would tend not to get liquidated withy urgency, since they weren't incurring losses on the downdraft in prices. This would explain why selling occurred even in commodities without a big speculative net long position, like copper."

As you can imagine, I get a fair amount of material in my in-box on a daily basis.  One of the things that caught my attention was this announcement by Endeavour Silver Corp.  It was tucked away in their financial and operating results and unaudited financial statements for the Third Quarter of 2011...that were just released yesterday.  Here's the pertinent paragraph...

"Management elected to not to sell all the silver and gold produced during the 3rd quarter due to the falling precious metal prices. As a result, precious metals held in inventory at quarter-end [were] 270,536 ounces of silver and 2,420 ounces of gold. Given that silver and gold prices are already rebounding in the 4th quarter, these inventories should substantially enhance our future financial results when sold."

I salute them for this...and I hope they continue to add more silver to their stockpile on a quarterly basis until the silver price are allowed to rise to something resembling free-market pricing...which is many multiples of what it's currently selling for.  I hope this idea gains traction with other silver companies as well, as it doesn't hurt the bottom line of any company that does it...and it doesn't have to be a lot of silver, either.  Up to five percent of physical silver production tucked away for a rainy day will sit well with all shareholders.  My congratulations to Endeavour Silver Corp. for leading the way.

Washington state reader sent me this very interesting chart yesterday, which I thought was well worth sharing.  Foreign investors own almost half of US Treasury debt outstanding...and the graph says the rest. Note the selling by foreign holders in recent years...and the corresponding increase in purchases by the Fed.  That's Q.E. in action.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you have time to plough through all of them.

It's just a matter of time before this resolves itself to the upside in a big way, despite whatever short term price b.s. we have to go through in the interim.
Top Gold Forecasters See Rally to Record by March. Your #1 Gold Risk - Jeff Clark. Bernanke: More Stimulus 'on the Table'. This Has Only Happened Twice in the Last Decade - Rick Rule

¤ Critical Reads

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The MF Global Gamble and Jon Corzine's Lost Weekend

How about that Jon Corzine, eh? It seems New Jersey's finest self-bought ex-Senator bet heavily on European debt, got walloped by a cavalcade of AIG-style collateral calls streaming in from outraged creditors, and tried to stave off the inevitable by commingling client cash with his own account.

From what I gather, Corzine essentially reached into the company cash register to pay off his gambling debts. He didn't have enough money of his own to fight off the wolves, so he took the money he had access to, in a desperate, insane hope that his bets would eventually turn around and he could replace the missing cash later on.

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi rips Jon Corzine a new one in this short blog over at the RS website.  It's a must read for sure...and it's Roy Stephens first offering of the day.  The link is here.

Corzine Forgot Lessons of Long-Term Capital: Roger Lowenstein

There are few people on Planet Earth more qualified to write about Jon Corzine and MF Global than the above writer.  Roger is the author of the book "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management"...and knows Corzine like few others.

Thirteen years ago, when the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was desperately negotiating with Wall Street banks for a bailout, Jon Corzine, the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., called John Meriwether, LTCM's founder, and read him the riot act. Wall Street would invest, Corzine said, but "JM" would have to accept more controls, including strict supervision over his firm's trading limits.

Corzine, I wrote soon after, "understood the flaws" at LTCM better than anyone. The firm had no controls over risk limits, no accountability to anyone who wasn't a trader.

If you had to pick only one story to read in today's column...this would be the one.  This absolute must read Bloomberg item was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A...and the link is here. [By the way, if you haven't read Lowenstein's book...you owe it to you to do so! - Ed]

MF Global accounts shock leaves clients scrambling

MF Global Holdings Ltd failed to protect customer accounts by keeping them separate from its own funds, said a top U.S. exchange regulator, another shock for commodity markets scrambling to contain fallout from the brokerage's bankruptcy.

The revelation on Tuesday by CME Group Inc suggests Jon Corzine's MF Global violated a central tenet of futures brokerages. It could erode confidence in a market that for decades has enjoyed a sterling reputation for safety.

MF Global cannot account for a large amount of customer money that was supposed to be kept separate from other funds, sources said, and regulators are scrambling to review the broker's accounts. The cause of the shortfall -- including whether the company pilfered client funds or merely cannot account for the money -- was not clear.

This Reuters piece was posted over at news.yahoo.com yesterday...and I thank reader "h c" for sharing it with us.  It's on the longish side, but definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Where Was the CFTC?

How are the regulators going to explain this one?

MF Global, the failed firm whose chairman and CEO is Jon Corzine, has already destroyed the wealth of its investors and roiled the banking world. But now we are learning that it may have lost customer funds as well.

A major Wall Street broker in derivatives markets with $41 billion in assets, MF Global filed for bankruptcy on Monday after Mr. Corzine made disastrous bets on bonds issued by European governments. It initially appeared he was (only) gambling with his firm's own capital, but a federal official tells the Journal that MF Global has admitted diverting money out of customer accounts, which may be a violation of federal law.

May be a violation of federal law???  No kidding!  The whisper number is that $1.5 billion of customer money may be missing.  If that's the case, I wonder how Jon will look doing the perp walk?  This is Washington state reader S.A.'s second offering in a row...and I thank GATA's Chris Powell for posting this Wall Street Journal story in the clear.  The link to the GATA release is here.

Some 15% of U.S. Uses Food Stamps

Nearly 15% of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in August, as the number of recipients hit 45.8 million.

Food stamp rolls have risen 8.1% in the past year, the Department of Agriculture reported, though the pace of growth has slowed from the depths of the recession.

Mississippi reported the largest share of its population relying on food stamps, more than 21%. One in five residents in New Mexico, Tennessee, Oregon and Louisiana also were food stamp recipients.

This story was in the Monday edition of The Wall Street Journal...and I lifted it from yesterday's King Report.  It's a short read...and the interactive graph imbedded in the story makes it worthwhile.  The link is here.

Your #1 Gold Risk - Jeff Clark

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

While we're convinced that our gold and silver investments will pay off, they don't come without risk. What do you suppose is the biggest risk we face? Another 2008-style selloff? Gold stocks never breaking out of their funk? Maybe a depression that slams our standard of living?

Though those things are possible, we at Casey Research don't see that as your greatest threat:

read more

John Hathaway: Senior Managing Director, Tocqueville Asset Management

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

Yesterday's edition of Conversations with Casey headlined this interview between John Hathaway and CR's own David Galland.

They discuss the disparity between gold stocks and bullion, as well as the general economic picture in the short term.  This absolute must watch interview runs 8:32...and the link is here.

Bernanke & the Fed to Ignite Gold and Oil - Peter Schiff

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

The Fed can't ease anymore because rates are already at zero, and you can't get any easier than that.  As far as quantitative easing, when are they going to announce more of that?  I don't know, they are going to do it, they are probably already doing it quietly.  But at some point they will be more vocal about it....

This is another blog posted over at King World News...and the link is here.

Top Gold Forecasters See Rally to Record by March

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe's debt crisis is unresolved.

Futures traded in New York may rise 13 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.

"There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment," said Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, the second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months. "The environment for gold is just perfect."

read more

Greece on brink of collapse in euro crisis

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 08:12 PM PDT

Uncertainty in Greece raised fresh fears that the single currency crisis will spread. European stock markets plunged and the Italian government's borrowing costs hit record highs as investors warned that efforts to save the euro were "unravelling".

George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, faced calls by members of his own government to step down amid fears that Greeks will vote against the bail-out package and the deep cuts in public spending its sponsors are demanding. As Greek politics grew ever more chaotic, there were strong political protests as the government moved to replace military chiefs with officers seen as more supportive of Mr. Papandreou.

read more

Australia, France… Wherever You Are, Demand For Physical Gold And Silver Is Soaring

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 07:03 PM PDT

Perth Mint

The Politics of Gold Investment

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:58 PM PDT

Euro Pacific Capital

Gold ready to attack prior highs in the 1900’s

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:52 PM PDT

Market Trend Forecast

The Saga of the Naked Boogieman

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:00 PM PDT

Gold University

Government Bonds Plagued by Doubt

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:57 PM PDT

The Dow dropped 297 points yesterday. October may have been the best month for stocks in 37 years. But November could be the worst.

Gold fell a little yesterday, too, down $13. Oil is still over $90.

The newspapers tell us that investors are disappointed over the European deal. They thought they had that problem wrapped up with a bow. Apparently not...

First, Italian government bond yields rose. All of a sudden the problem wasn't solved at all. It was bigger than ever.

And then the Greeks said that they were going to have to vote on any further austerity measures. And you know what that means. They're going to vote no. No sensible people would agree to give up their ill-gotten goods so that they could be given to investors, speculators and the banks.

Ambrose Bierce described an election as an "advance auction of stolen goods." But today's elections auction off goods that haven't even been created yet...and probably never will be. A government bond is really a promise that the government will steal enough money to pay the interest and principle. Investors don't doubt its willingness. They doubt its ability.

So do we. Every government in the developed world is deeply in debt. Most countries have little margin to increase taxes, without hurting economic growth. You can only squeeze so much blood out of a population of turnips. When you get to the pulp...you have to find a new source of revenue. And few voters are willing to accept austerity just so rich, greedy capitalist bond buyers get what they've been promised.

The betting is that Greece will run out of juice sometime in the next few months. Greek bond prices have fallen so low that you can now buy Greek 1-year notes with a 200% yield. If all goes well, you will double your money in a year. If it doesn't go well...

..well, you take your chances!

It's precisely because investors don't want to take chances that the yield on America's 10-year note has fallen to under 2% again. The Greeks may not be good for the money. The Italians may be untrustworthy. And who knows what the French are up to! But you can count on good ol' Uncle Sam. He may be a rascal and a scalawag...but he's got a printing press.

Besides, the way things are going, it looks like the dollar...and US government debt...may be the only things you can count on. That is, until they blow up.

But we're beginning to think it could be long time before this show is over. The world's financial system lurches from one crisis to the next. Risk assets go down. People seek the safety of the US government bond market. And the feds get to finance their deficits at low rates. What's not to like?

Besides the fact that everyone gets poorer and poorer...

Man may fight for his country or his family or his religion, but for the cause of honest capitalism he will take a dive every time. That is as true of the fighters as it is of everyone else. They may pretend to defend the nation, but in the absence of a real enemy, they're happy to take the money and fall to the mat.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Australian Debt – The Deleveraging Has Not Even Begun

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:21 PM PDT

While global leaders (we use the term very loosely) gather in the trendy French town of Cannes to ruminate on the myriad problems caused by too much debt, Aussie banks are still reaping the benefits of an increasing Australian debt.

Over the past week or so, NAB, Westpac and ANZ have all reported record annual earnings. The Commonwealth Bank, with a June 30 reporting date, delivered a $6.8 billion cash profit a few months ago.

How do the banks continue to make such healthy profits in the face of the weakening economy? Aren't households saving income at the highest rate in decades and paying down debt?

Well, you would be forgiven for thinking this way. But a quick glance at the balance sheets of the big four banks (and data from the Reserve Bank) suggests anything but.

The process of deleveraging Australian debt has not even started yet.

According to statistics from the RBA, in the year to September 2011, seasonally adjusted total credit outstanding (which is a measure of total debt in the economy) was $2.03 trillion. At the end of June, Australia's economic output was $1.31 trillion, putting the total debt-to-GDP ratio at around 155 per cent.

A year ago, total debt outstanding was $1.97 trillion. And the year before that, $1.92 trillion. No evidence of deleveraging there.

And if you look at the big banks, they are continuing to grow their assets. Banks' assets are equal to the debts of households and businesses. So if their assets are growing, so too is debt. Banks make a profit margin on every dollar of asset growth they enjoy, so higher assets mean higher profits.

In the year to June 30, the Commonwealth Bank's assets grew 3.3 per cent to $668 billion. The other banks that rule off the books at the end of September also expanded. Westpac grew assets 3.4 per cent to $628 billion.

The 'smaller' two of the big four - NAB and ANZ - appear to be sacrificing profitability for growth. They expanded their asset base by a sizable 10 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

On average, the big four grew assets faster than the overall market. This indicates the majors continue to grow at the expense of smaller competitors. The concentration of financial power in Australia is ongoing.

What about Australian housing debt? In aggregate, that's not being paid off either. In the two years to 30 September, owner-occupier housing debt has increased from $740 billion to $846 billion. Investor housing debt has increased from $316 billion to $360 billion.

So if you've been thinking that Australia's high savings ratio, which hit 10.5 per cent in the June quarter, is going towards paying down debt, you'd be wrong. In fact Australia has been doing the opposite. Australian debt levels continue to grow.

The savings rate may be a little misleading too. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

Household saving is not measured directly. It is calculated as a residual item by deducting Household final consumption expenditure from Household net disposable income. As the difference between the two aggregates is relatively small, caution should be exercised in interpreting the Household saving ratio in recent years, because major components of household income and expenditure may be subject to significant revisions.

Anyway, the point we're making here is that Australia's period of deleveraging, unlike the rest of the Western world, has not yet begun

That could change soon though. China's economy and demand for raw materials is beginning to slow noticeably. Steel inventories are building. Those with a penchant for wishful thinking are not worried. They believe the central planners will be able to 'finetune' the economy and prevent a hard landing.

They ignore all lessons of history. They even ignore an event that has hardly passed into the history books - the US sub-prime crisis. Once a credit bubble pops, it's all but impossible to reinflate.

The China slowdown will hit Australia's terms of trade and national income. The RBA can offset this to some extent through interest rate cuts. But it may be the catalyst that forces Australia to join the rest of the developed world in the process of deleveraging.

In the meantime, expect uncertainty and more volatility. As Murray Dawes says in his just released YouTube Stock Market Update, 'everything is now set up perfectly to see the markets fall over in the near future'.

Here we go again.

Greg Canavan
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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