Gold World News Flash |
- GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek
- Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Value with Gold
- Asian Metals Market Update
- The Gold Price Close Higher 1.5% Today Closing at 1,710.80
- Pento - Money Printing to Cause Significant Gold Move in 2012
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 3%
- Ron Paul Explains His Plan For "Monetary Freedom" And Returning To The Gold Standard
- Ron Paul Explains His Plan For "Monetary Freedom" And Returning To The Gold Standard
- Auerback, Naylor-Leyland cite gold suppression; Turk expects silver blastoff
- $50 Gold Stocks Going to $200
- John Williams Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Wealth Value with Gold
- 22 Reasons Why We Could See An Economic Collapse In Europe In 2012
- Capital Account: Edward Harrison on IMF bailout rumors, Central Bank Gold, and Eurobonds (11/28/11)
- GCN Owner Ted Anderson: The Coming ‘Boom' in Gold & Silver
- MUST LISTEN: Eric Sprott Financial Crisis Worse Than 2008, and More…
- SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting In March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1900 And $8500/Oz
- Is It Finally Japan's Turn?
- Is It Finally Japan's Turn?
- Two Possible Outcomes For the European End Game
- Beware the Party Mood
- Risk on - Everything got fixed overnight
- Guest Post: The Future Of Jobs
- “I don’t think that gold is particularly expensive. I think it’s just the value of paper money that has completely imploded.”
- Water – Still Blue Gold
- Disaggregated COT Data for Week Ending November 25
- Volume Explosion Sends ES Higher As Treasuries End Unchanged
- SocGen: “Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into debasement of the USD. Gold to $ 8500/Oz to catch up with the increase in the monetary base.
- Fitch Revises US Outlook To Negative
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- $70 Silver
| GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek Posted: 28 Nov 2011 07:02 PM PST GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek
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| Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Value with Gold Posted: 28 Nov 2011 06:06 PM PST Among the specters lurking in ShadowStats.com's Editor John Williams' gloomy outlook for the U.S. are the demise of the dollar, hyperinflation and the ongoing lack of political will to take sound corrective measures. Still, as he tells The Gold Report in this exclusive interview, investors have options. Williams contends that turning to gold, silver and strong foreign currencies would protect wealth and position savvy investors to take advantage of extraordinary opportunities likely to flow out of the turmoil ahead.
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 06:00 PM PST Technically gold and silver are in a bullish zone but they need to break $1730 and $33.00 for further gains. Lack of major negative news from Europe will result in further gains in bullion, base metals and energies.
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| The Gold Price Close Higher 1.5% Today Closing at 1,710.80 Posted: 28 Nov 2011 05:43 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,710.80 Change : 25.30 or 1.5% Silver Price Close Today : 3216.0 Change : 115.0 or 3.6% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,538.00 Change : 6.40 or 0.4% Palladium Price Close Today : 578.25 Change : 8.25 or 1.4% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.20 Change : -1.16 or 0.98% Dow Industrial : 11,231.78 Change : -25.77 or -0.2% US Dollar Index : 79.63 Change : 0.61 or 0.8% Franklin Sanders has not published any commentary today, if he publishes commentary later today it will be published here. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. 
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| Pento - Money Printing to Cause Significant Gold Move in 2012 Posted: 28 Nov 2011 04:43 PM PST  With tremendous volatility in global markets, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies writes for King World News to put together the pieces of the economic puzzle and explain why gold will continue to rise. Pento writes, "Europe is providing the U.S. with a serious warning, cut your deficits as soon as possible or face skyrocketing debt service payments and insolvency. So I was hoping, given this valuable lesson currently being taught us, that our government would now be making huge strides towards fixing America's fiscal imbalances."
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 2% and 3% Posted: 28 Nov 2011 04:00 PM PST Gold climbed to as high as $1720.30 by a little before 9AM EST before it fell back off a bit in New York, but it still ended with a gain of 1.86%. Silver shot to as high as $32.30 and ended with a gain of 3.18%.
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| Ron Paul Explains His Plan For "Monetary Freedom" And Returning To The Gold Standard Posted: 28 Nov 2011 03:33 PM PST Ron Paul lays it out: "We know what to do - we did it once after the Civil War period, we went from a paper standard back to the gold standard, and the event wasn't that dramatic. But today the big problem is that both the conservatives and liberals have an big apetite for big government for different reasons, therefore they need the Fed to tie them over and monetize the debt. So if you don't get rid of that appetite it's going to be more difficult, but the transition isn't that difficult. You have to get your house in order; you have to balance the budget, you have to not run up debt, and you have to promise not to print any more money... I would like to have a transition period and just legalize gold money, gold and silver as legal tender, and work our way back... We want to legalize the use of gold and silver as the constitution dictates, rather than punishing the people who try to do that... I am quite convinced that the system we have will not be maintained - that's what these last 4 years was all about, and that's what the turmoil in Europe is all about. The question is are they going to move toward a constitutional form of money. or are we going to go another step further into international money - instead of having an international gold standard based on the market, are we going to go toward a UN, IMF standard where they are going to control with the use of force another fiat standard. I consider that a very, very dangerous move." And precisely due to that piece of phenomenal insight which nobody else in the GOP or Democratic roster is even parsecs away from grasping, is why Paul can never be allowed to be elected, why he must be mocked and ridiculed by a co-opted ADHD media which focuses on how many mistresses some other idiotic presidential candidates has, instead of focusing on the one person who grasps the big picture: the status quo can not be held accountable to a political leader who understand not only how the system is rigged, but why it is broken to begin with and that there actually is a way out. However, to the "status quo's" chagrin, one that involves the wiping out of generations of plundered middle class wealth to keep the richest denizens of 'extremistan' ever richer.
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| Ron Paul Explains His Plan For "Monetary Freedom" And Returning To The Gold Standard Posted: 28 Nov 2011 03:33 PM PST
Ron Paul lays it out: "We know what to do - we did it once after the Civil War period, we went from a paper standard back to the gold standard, and the event wasn't that dramatic. But today the big problem is that both the conservatives and liberals have an big apetite for big government for different reasons, therefore they need the Fed to tie them over and monetize the debt. So if you don't get rid of that appetite it's going to be more difficult, but the transition isn't that difficult. You have to get your house in order; you have to balance the budget, you have to not run up debt, and you have to promise not to print any more money... I would like to have a transition period and just legalize gold money, gold and silver as legal tender, and work our way back... We want to legalize the use of gold and silver as the constitution dictates, rather than punishing the people who try to do that... I am quite convinced that the system we have will not be maintained - that's what these last 4 years was all about, and that's what the turmoil in Europe is all about. The question is are they going to move toward a constitutional form of money. or are we going to go another step further into international money - instead of having an international gold standard based on the market, are we going to go toward a UN, IMF standard where they are going to control with the use of force another fiat standard. I consider that a very, very dangerous move." And precisely due to that piece of phenomenal insight which nobody else in the GOP or Democratic roster is even parsecs away from grasping, is why Paul can never be allowed to be elected, why he must be mocked and ridiculed by a co-opted ADHD media which focuses on how many mistresses some other idiotic presidential candidates has, instead of focusing on the one person who grasps the big picture: the status quo can not be held accountable to a political leader who understand not only how the system is rigged, but why it is broken to begin with and that there actually is a way out. However, to the "status quo's" chagrin, one that involves the wiping out of generations of plundered middle class wealth to keep the richest denizens of 'extremistan' ever richer.
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| Auerback, Naylor-Leyland cite gold suppression; Turk expects silver blastoff Posted: 28 Nov 2011 03:15 PM PST 11:25p ET Monday, November 28, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed this week by Kevin Michael Grace at Resource Clips, Pinetree Capital's Marshall Auerback says central banks are manipulating the currency and bond markets and possibly the equity markets, so they well may be manipulating the gold market too. Auerback says that without a lot of gold lending by central banks, the gold price would be much higher, and he suspects that central banks eventually will reclassify the gold loans as sales and write the gold off as lost. GATA has maintained that only this sort of conversion of irretrievable gold loans to sales can explain gold's steady rise in price over the last decade despite constant announcements of sales by central banks. That is, no gold was really being sold at all and no new gold was hitting the market; rather, gold borrowers were being let off easy, allowed cash settlement on terms that essentially expropriated the publics to which the gold really belonged, because demanding return of the gold would have exploded the price and devastated the currencies of the central banks doing the lending. Auerback also wonders whether U.S. market regulators allowed the MF Global brokerage to fail as a way of punishing investors in commodities. His interview can be found at Resource Clips here: http://resourceclips.com/2011/11/28/gold-at-3000/ Meanwhile, in a video interview today with Bloomberg News that has been posted at the Washington Post's Internet site, Cheviot Asset Management Investment Director Ned Naylor-Leyland, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August, was allowed to mention gold price suppression, if in a very polite way. Bloomberg's reporters have yet to discover this story, but maybe it will be a little harder for them to ignore it now that it has slipped out onto their own video feed: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/naylor-leyland-says-gold-to-hit-2... And interviewed today by King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk, who also spoke at Gold Rush 2011, said silver's price chart is foretelling a relatively quick doubling, even as gold also looks ready to break out again: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/28_J... In any case, fiat justitia et ruant coeli -- and may they fall most heavily on Wall Street, the corner of 20th Street and Constitution Avenue in Washington, and Threadneedle Street in London. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT The United States Once Again Can Establish Lewis E. 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To learn more and to sign up for The Gold Standard Now's free, noncommercial, weekly report, "Prosperity through Gold," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/gata Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme... California Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe... Support GATA by purchasing a silver commemorative coin: https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12 Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. 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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 02:01 PM PST Author: Louis James Synopsis: There's precedent for your favorite gold stock to hit $200 or more, and Casey Research Senior Precious Metals Analyst Jeff Clark proves it. Dear Readers, Welcome to the new Casey Daily Dispatch, starting with the inaugural edition of Metals, Mining, & Money, which will run on Mondays. Our technology and energy teams will contribute weekly editions as well, and Conversations with Casey will take the Wednesday slot, the same day that it has been published all along. Today, the Casey Metals Team has put together a digest of timely information on our sector, plus an upbeat article from BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark… just the sort of thing to shore up contrarian confidence during this downbeat swing in our market. This is not just a "feel-good" piece, but an important reminder of why we buy when others are selling. ROCK & STOCK ST...
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| John Williams Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Wealth Value with Gold Posted: 28 Nov 2011 01:33 PM PST by The Gold Report, MarketOracle.co.uk:
Among the specters lurking in ShadowStats.com's Editor John Williams' gloomy outlook for the U.S. are the demise of the dollar, hyperinflation and the ongoing lack of political will to take sound corrective measures. Still, as he tells The Gold Report in this exclusive interview, investors have options. Williams contends that turning to gold, silver and strong foreign currencies would protect wealth and position savvy investors to take advantage of extraordinary opportunities likely to flow out of the turmoil ahead. The Gold Report: When we talked in May, you predicted that hyperinflation could be a reality as soon as 2014, something you addressed at length in your Hyperinflation Special Report. Have six months of euro debt crises, Middle East revolts and U.S. Treasuries' downgrading altered your outlook? John Williams: Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk
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| 22 Reasons Why We Could See An Economic Collapse In Europe In 2012 Posted: 28 Nov 2011 01:21 PM PST from The Economic Collapse Blog:
Will 2012 be the year that we see an economic collapse in Europe? Before you dismiss the title of this article as "alarmist", read the facts listed in the rest of this article first. Over the past several months, there has been an astonishing loss of confidence in the European financial system. Right now, virtually nobody wants to loan money to financially troubled nations in the EU and virtually nobody wants to lend money to major European banks. Remember, one of the primary reasons for the financial crisis of 2008 was a major credit crunch that happened here in the United States. This burgeoning credit crunch in Europe is just one element of a "perfect storm" that is rapidly coming together as we get ready to go into 2012. The signs of trouble are everywhere. All over Europe, governments are implementing austerity measures and dramatically cutting back on spending. European banks are substantially cutting back on lending as they seek to meet new capital requirements that are being imposed upon them. Meanwhile, bond yields are going through the roof all over Europe as investors lose confidence and demand much higher returns for investing in European debt. It has become clear that without a miracle happening, quite a few European nations and a significant number of European banks are not going to be able to get the funding that they need from the market in 2012. The only thing that is going to avert a complete and total financial meltdown in Europe is dramatic action, but right now European leaders are so busy squabbling with each other that a bold plan seems out of the question. Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com
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| Capital Account: Edward Harrison on IMF bailout rumors, Central Bank Gold, and Eurobonds (11/28/11) Posted: 28 Nov 2011 12:12 PM PST from CapitalAccount: The Eurozone crisis comes to America's door step, literally. Eu leaders held a summit at the white house today where Barack Obama met with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso today. For those of you unfamiliar with Herman Van Rompuy, we will be playing a part of our interview with European MEP and leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, who explains. And as leaders particularly of the western world prescribe austerity with the one thank, the other is busy printing money. Central banks across five continents have reportedly turned to monetary stimulus to avoid a global economic slump, easing interest rates the most since 2009. Joining us to discuss all of this is Edward Harrison, founder and chief contributor to Credit Writedowns, a financial and economic blog. And lastly, its been 10 years since Enron collapsed, and the giant "E" outside their headquarters in Texas was auctioned off. Who got it? A company called Microcache in Houston. We track them down and tell you all about it.
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| GCN Owner Ted Anderson: The Coming ‘Boom' in Gold & Silver Posted: 28 Nov 2011 11:55 AM PST When it comes to capital preservation, few resources have been able to hold value like gold. Gold and silver have staged one of the best ten year runs in history. In the early part of this century gold prices remained quite stable, but the last decade may soon be written in history as what jump started the revolution in personal finance; utilizing metals as an important hedge against economic fallout. The ability of precious metals to protect against inflation, as well as deflation, and everything in between truly shows how versatile and rewarding gold and silver are as investments.
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| MUST LISTEN: Eric Sprott Financial Crisis Worse Than 2008, and More… Posted: 28 Nov 2011 11:42 AM PST King World News released the audio of their interview with Eric Sprott: Chairman, CEO & Portfolio Manager of Sprott Asset Management. Eric has over 40 years of experience in the investment industry and manages over $10 billion. He has been stunningly accurate in his writings for over a decade, and is one of the most respected industry professionals who accurately foresaw the current crisis. Eric chronicled the dangers of excessive leverage as well as the bubbles the Fed was creating, while correctly forecasting the tragic collapse. Sprott Asset Management is one of the top firms in the world. The firm has become well known not only for its performance, but also for creating a gold and now silver trust. You can listen to the interview HERE. (On the left side of the page, half way down, click on the small purple logo that reads, "Listen to MP3 – CLICK HERE")
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| SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting In March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1900 And $8500/Oz Posted: 28 Nov 2011 11:36 AM PST from ZeroHedge:
SocGen has released its much anticipated Multi Asset Portfolio Scenario/Strategy guide titled simply enough "Patience: bad news will become good news" where, as the insightful can guess, the French bank makes the simple case that the worse things get, the stronger the response by global central banks will be. Here is the key quote for those worried that : "A major liquidity crisis should not occur this time, as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ." We don't disagree and if there is anything that can send BAC higher it will be the announcement of QE3. Of course, BAC will first drop to a $2-3 handle so question is who has the balance sheet to hold on to the falling knife. The next question is "How big will QE3 be"? Well, according to SocGen, the Fed will preannounce it in the January 2012 FOMC statement, the monetization will last from March 2012 until the end of the year, and will buy a total of $600 billion. We believe the actual LSAP total (not to be confused with the "sterilized" QE3 known as Operation Twist) will be well greater, probably in the $1.5 trillion range as the Fed will finally say "enough" to piecemeal solutions. As to what to do, besides going long some financial stock and hoping it is not the one that is allowed to fail, SocGen has some simple advice: "Buy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices" – in other words just as we suggested yesterday courtesy of the Don Coxe correlation chart. Why gold and not BAC? Because, "Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD. Gold = $ 8500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s). Gold = $1900/Oz: to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)." So go long a bank that may well go bankrupt and return nothing before it at best doubles, or go long a real asset, which will always have value and may quadruple in short notice? The answer seems simple to us…
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| Is It Finally Japan's Turn? Posted: 28 Nov 2011 10:40 AM PST Japan is starting to heat up a little in terms of risk and we hope that Noda is watching carefully. While the strengthening trend in USDJPY and JGBs has been a long one, the last few days are starting to worry some traders and most notably, Bloomberg points out that not only are FX options the most USD bullish-biased (JPY-bearish) in seven years, swaptions have screamed to their highest in over seven months at 54bps. The growing concern that the European crisis will spread to Japan is evident in recent underperformance but these option bets support the view that the JPY strength and trade surplus arguments are much less support than they have been recently.
Swaption spreads are their highest in seven months - traders are paying more now to lock in cost of future JPY funds on the expectation of rising rates...
and at the same time, the difference in prices for puts and calls in the FX option market are the most bearishly biased in over seven years. The so-called risk-reversal is positive for the first time since 2004. The combination of the bet on JPY weakness and rates rising at the same time as ratings, fiscal sustainability, and trade surpluses come into question is rather notably concerning. Charts: Bloomberg Some notable sections from the Bloomberg report 'Swaption Surge Signals Euro Contagion in Yen Debt: Japan Credit' include:
Following S&P's recent 'downgrade' chatter, the IMF's decidely negative perspective on fiscal sustainability, and the market action of the last week or so, it seems perhaps Noda was right to keep watching. Perhaps the sad inevitability of the real endgame of Richard Koo's balance sheet-recessionary view of Keynesianism is closer than many believe.
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 10:40 AM PST
Japan is starting to heat up a little in terms of risk and we hope that Noda is watching carefully. While the strengthening trend in USDJPY and JGBs has been a long one, the last few days are starting to worry some traders and most notably, Bloomberg points out that not only are FX options the most USD bullish-biased (JPY-bearish) in seven years, swaptions have screamed to their highest in over seven months at 54bps. The growing concern that the European crisis will spread to Japan is evident in recent underperformance but these option bets support the view that the JPY strength and trade surplus arguments are much less support than they have been recently.
Swaption spreads are their highest in seven months - traders are paying more now to lock in cost of future JPY funds on the expectation of rising rates...
and at the same time, the difference in prices for puts and calls in the FX option market are the most bearishly biased in over seven years. The so-called risk-reversal is positive for the first time since 2004. The combination of the bet on JPY weakness and rates rising at the same time as ratings, fiscal sustainability, and trade surpluses come into question is rather notably concerning. Charts: Bloomberg Some notable sections from the Bloomberg report 'Swaption Surge Signals Euro Contagion in Yen Debt: Japan Credit' include:
Following S&P's recent 'downgrade' chatter, the IMF's decidely negative perspective on fiscal sustainability, and the market action of the last week or so, it seems perhaps Noda was right to keep watching. Perhaps the sad inevitability of the real endgame of Richard Koo's balance sheet-recessionary view of Keynesianism is closer than many believe.
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| Two Possible Outcomes For the European End Game Posted: 28 Nov 2011 10:25 AM PST With the European End Game now in sight, the primary question that needs to be addressed is whether Europe will opt for a period of massive deflation, massive inflation, or deflation followed by inflation.
Indeed, with Europe's entire banking system insolvent (even German banks need to be recapitalized to the tune of over $171 billion) the outcome for Europe is only one of two options:
1) Massive debt restructuring 2) Monetization of everything/ hyperinflation
These are the realities facing Europe today (and eventually Japan and the US). Either way we are talking about the destruction of tens of trillions of Euros in wealth. The issue is which poison the European powers that be choose.
Personally, I believe we are going to see a combination of the two with deflation hitting all EU countries first and then serious inflation or hyperinflation hitting peripheral players and the PIIGS.
In terms of how we get there, I believe that in the next 14 months, the following will occur.
1) Germany and possibly France exit the Euro 2) ALL PIIGS defaulting on their debt 3) Potential hyperinflation in the PIIGS and peripheral EU countries
Regarding #1, we are already beginning to see hints of this development in the press:
DEATH OF THE EURO: SECRET PLOT TO WRECK THE CURRENCY
Ministers are understood to be deeply concerned that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel are secretly plotting to build a new, slimmed down Eurozone without Greece, Italy and other debt-ridden southern European nations.
Well-placed Brussels sources say Germany and France have already held private discussions on preparing for the disintegration of the Eurozone.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/283060
FRENCH AND GERMANS EXPLORE IDEA OF SMALLER EURO ZONE
German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve setting up a more integrated and potentially smaller Euro zone, EU sources say.
"France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels," a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
"We need to move very cautiously, but the truth is that we need to establish exactly the list of those who don't want to be part of the club and those who simply cannot be part," the official said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-Eurozone-future-sarkozy-idUSTRE7A85VV20111109
With no one willing to foot the bill for the EFSF the markets are hoping Germany will step in and save the day. However, the German constitution forbids Germany from backing Euro-bonds.
German EconMin: court verdict rules out Euro bonds
German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said on Thursday the constitutional court's ruling on Euro aid made it clear that joint Euro zone bonds were not an option.
Addressing left-wing opposition parties in the Bundestag lower house of parliament, Roesler said: "You continue to talk up Euro bonds although the constitutional court yesterday made it clear that as transfer union such as the one you propose on the left will never be possible, never be allowed."
"We don't want it politically, either, and we will not let the German taxpayer be obliged to pay for the debt of other countries," he said in a parliamentary budget debate.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/Eurozone-germany-Eurobonds-idUSB4E7K600L20110908
Moreover, Germans will simply not permit the monetization of debt. Weimar's hyperinflation happened in the early 1920s and is still fresh in the memories of the German people (those who lived through it undoubtedly told their children and grandchildren about it). So the German people will not tolerate price instability in any form.
Germany is not alone in having little or no desire to attempt to backstop the system. Indeed, NONE of the G20 countries wish to support the EFSF from a monetary standpoint (yet another sign that the bailout game is ending).
No new Euro zone money for debt crisis at G20
The Euro zone won verbal support but no new money at a G20 summit on Friday for its tortured efforts to overcome a sovereign debt crisis, while Italy was effectively placed under IMF supervision.
Leaders of the world's major economies, meeting on the French Riviera, told Europe to sort out its own problems and deferred until next year any move to provide more crisis-fighting resources to the International Monetary Fund.
"There are hardly any countries here which said they were ready to go along with the EFSF (Euro zone rescue fund)," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a news conference.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-g-idUSTRE7A20E920111104
So… everyone claims they want to support the EFSF… but no one wants to commit the money. Moreover, Germany's constitution forbids the backing of Euro bonds… and the EFSF itself has failed to stage even a three billion Euro bond offering under normal market conditions.
Again, the bailout game is ending. Under these conditions, I believe Germany and France will push to either:
1) Leave the EU 2) Draft legislation that allows countries to leave the Euro but remain in the EU 3) Propose kicking out the PIIGS from the Euro
Whichever one of these options Germany opts for, the Euro will collapse. Indeed, the primary reason the Euro has been rallying since October is due to French banks and others selling assets (buying Euros) to recapitalize themselves.
Put another way, the Euro rally is in fact NOT a sign of currency strength. Instead, it is a sign that the major players are moving to cash (Euros) in an attempt to lower their exposure to PIIGS' debt.
Indeed, if we look at the bond or credit markets, it's clear we're into a Crisis far greater than 2008. Forget the stock market rally. Stocks ALWAYS get it last (just like in 2008). And before the smoke clears on this mess we're going to see sovereign defaults, bank holidays, riots, and more.
Many people will lose everything in this mess. Yes, everything. However, you don't have to be one of them. Indeed, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 10:24 AM PST November 28, 2011 [LIST] [*]Holiday cheer: Retail and eurozone jubilation... The 5 deigns to interrupt with a few facts that don't fit in [*]$601 trillion time bomb grows to $708 trillion in only six months [*]Money-grubbing local governments' latest scheme: Decades-old parking tickets come back to haunt drivers trying to renew their licenses [*]Byron King on why gold supply simply can't keep up with demand [*]Readers lament the onset of the police state... castigating your editor for the sins of decades ago... a unique source of yield in a world of near-zero interest rates... and more! [/LIST] The S&P's up 30 points in the first three minutes of trading. The Dow has recovered to 11,500. "Strong Black Friday sales add fuel to investor sentiment," reports MarketWatch, "as does perceived progress on EU crisis." Indeed, Thanksgiving weekend retail sales are 16% higher than a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation this morning. Real dispos...
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| Risk on - Everything got fixed overnight Posted: 28 Nov 2011 10:21 AM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Talk about potential IMF loans to Italy had everyone feeling slap-happy in today's trading session, especially seeing that the finanical world did not come to an end over the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Back on came the risk trades; up went the equity markets; up went the commodity markets in general and down went the US Dollar. Both gold and silver moved higher with silver leading the way in this "risk environment". If you note the gold chart below, it ran to $1720, the next resistance level noted on the chart, where it then encountered some selling pressure which kept it from getting too far out from that level. I would like to see this market stay above $1725 for at least one bar before thinking it can mount a run back towards $1750 with its first stop on that journey near $1735. Gold did manage to claw its way back above the upper tine of the bearish pitchfork which should now serve...
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| Guest Post: The Future Of Jobs Posted: 28 Nov 2011 09:54 AM PST Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith via ChrisMartenson.com The Future of Jobs That the American and global economies are being transformed by the forces of globalization, demographics, and over-indebtedness is self-evident. What is less self-evident is the impact this transformation will have on the future of work, earned income, and financial security. The key question an increasingly vulnerable workforce is asking is: What skills will be in demand once this transition occurs? In order to answer this question, it's necessary to understand the macro trends that will shape the nature of employment in this new era. In our previous look at The Future of Work, we focused on the US economy's dependence on debt as a driver of growth and found that debt saturation was correlated with declining employment. But there are many other long-term dynamics influencing the economy, and no survey of the future job market would be complete without considering these other factors. The Trends That Will Determine the Future of JobsMost cultural and economic trend changes begin on the margin and then spread slowly to the core, triggering waves of wider recognition along the way. Thus some of these long-wave trends may not yet be visible to the mainstream, and may remain on the margins for many years. Others are so mature that they may be primed for reversal. The key here is to be aware of each of these, think on which are most likely to impact your current profession and how, and estimate when that impact is likely to be expressed so that you can position yourself wisely in advance:
While these trends will cause harsh disruption to the Status Quo economy resulting in job loss and/or lost relevance for many of today's workers, there is good news here for those who remain flexible, open-minded, and adaptable. For those individuals, making the best use of the gift of having time to re-focus and re-skill professionally -- while the shock waves have yet to hit the Status Quo in earnest -- should be a top priority. In Part II: The Skills Most Likely To Be In Demand, we explore the opportunities that this long-term transformation opens for those willing to adapt to the new realities of "work", including the business models that are likely to thrive, and what type of skills will offer the greatest job security. Click here to access Part II of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 09:50 AM PST Marc Faber – No Free Markets, Just Government Manipulation
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 09:22 AM PST I was in Bangkok while the floods were raging. I also visited Cambodia. The floods were in the news there as well. Though it did not affect Phnom Penh, where I was, the remote villages were dealing with a lot of water. That's the curious thing about water. There always seems to be either too much of it or not enough. What follows is another look at my favorite commodity and the opportunities of investing in it. At breakfast at the Raffles in Phnom Penh, I read a story about how Levi Strauss is trying to minimize its water use. A pair of blue jeans will consume over 900 gallons of water in its lifetime. That includes everything from the water to irrigate the cotton crop to multiple washings of the jeans. The pressure is mounting on Levi, and other companies, to reduce their water footprint. Miners, food companies, tobacco companies and beverage makers all face pressure to use less water. In many places where they operate — such as India or China or Africa — fresh water is in short su...
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| Disaggregated COT Data for Week Ending November 25 Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:43 AM PST HOUSTON -- Just below is our recap of last week's disaggregated commitments of traders data (DCOT) from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending November 25. Positioning and closing data as of Tuesday, November 22, as released by the CFTC at 15:30 today, Monday, November 28. The report was delayed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. We will include commentary about the DCOT in our full Got Gold Report scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday, November 29. We will also be adding commentary about the COT and DCOT reports in our technical graphs for gold and silver, available to Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) on the password-protected GGR Subscriber pages either late this evening or sometime Tuesday morning. That is all for now, but there is more to come.
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| Volume Explosion Sends ES Higher As Treasuries End Unchanged Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:35 AM PST
30Y Treasuries rallied 14bps from high to low yield today peaking at the US equity day session open and troughing just prior to the late day vertical ramp-fest that managed to turn what was heading to be a mediocre day into a headline-grabbing risk-fest. Unfortunately, stocks were the only asset class enjoying this exuberance as Oil lost over 2.5% from its highs, AUDJPY and FX in general drifted lower all day and copper and silver slid after Europe's close. The huge burst in volume which ripped us back to VWAP in ES and several of the financials (as BAC was heading towards a $4 handle) was very notable and dragged ES back away from a critically risk-off performance day in CONTEXT.
The TSY curve ended practically unchanged with the short-end modestly lower in yield and the long-end very modestly higher in yield. The very notable rally and compression in 2s10s30s from the start of the US day session was a major driver (along with the general risk-off sentikent of the TSY rally for today's CONTEXT move).
ES and CONTEXT (dark blue line above) converged all day - from the 13+ point differential when we posted earlier - to as narrows as 7pts in the final hour. ES moved in our direction by 10pts or so only to give most of it back with the last minute volume spike. Risk, broadly speaking, was off all day - and even as we pointed out in the sectoral and financials performance, was lagging badly from only 1 minute after the open. Credit underperformed equity's close to close shift massivley by completely ignoring the late-day ramp. HYG, for a change, tracked equities very closely, and held pace with equities late day surge with its own high volume ramp up to VWAP (light blue line above).
In corporate bonds, we saw net selling all day long with financials by far the most net sold (29% more buy-side sellers than buy-side buyers). HY secondary bonds were net sold - despite very strong perrformance in HY credit indices - which tracked ES most of the day. Evidently, duration risk seemed to be removed in general in both TSYs and Corps today. All-in-all a very odd day that will make for some very sanguine headlines but from a professional's perspective, the underperformance all day along with the lack of any follow-through from any other asset-class into equity's last minute surge is worrying. Very heavy volume spikes in financial stocks along with significant net selling by bond managers is worrisome but a +3% day for ES is touigh to argue with when the margin-man comes calling. 1160 remains our HY-based relative-value view of fair S&P cash currently and with the relative outperformance of VIX and implied correlation today, it certainly didn't feel like professionals were re-risking today. Charts: Bloomberg UPDATE: By request - updates to our earlier sector post charts:
Sector's performance post 0931ET - nothing odd here at all into the close.
...and the 2% ramp in the majors made perfect sense.
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| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:22 AM PST SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting In March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1900 And $8500/Oz
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| Fitch Revises US Outlook To Negative Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:18 AM PST
French Fitch strikes back at the US for not pushing the Fed to do more to bail out Europe. Now it is US Moody's and S&P's turn... Fitch Affirms United States at AAA; Outlook Revised to Negative FITCH AFFIRMS UNITED STATES AT 'AAA'; OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:11 AM PST |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2011 08:09 AM PST James Turk – Bullish Flag Pattern to Quickly Send Silver to $70
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