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Friday, October 14, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Martin Armstrong - Lessons from ’87 Crash & What’s Coming

Posted: 14 Oct 2011 07:20 AM PDT

With continued turmoil in global markets, King World News interviewed internationally followed Martin Armstrong, Founder and Former Head of Princeton Economics International, Ltd.. Armstrong's firm rose to be perhaps the largest multinational corporate advisor in the world. When asked what to look for going forward, Armstrong told KWN a fascinating account of what led to the '87 Crash, "When Volcker raised interest rates to crazy levels, the discount rate up to 17% going into 1981, a tremendous amount of capital starts coming from overseas into the United States.  So that drives the dollar up going into 1985 to a point where the (British) pound had fallen from 2.40 to par vs the dollar."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

What Does Current Global Crisis Comparison with Those of ?08 and ?10 Mean for Stocks,

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:19 PM PDT

How*does the current behavior of*the global financial markets compare with*the two recent crises, namely the great financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the minor one in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone developed? [I have analyzed 15 aspects of the markets and have concluded that over the next 2/3 months we should see, among other things,* increased volatility, declining *S&P 500 and MSCI World indices,*a bottoming in the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield, renewed U.S. dollar weakness, renewed*strength in*the price of gold and silver with silver outperforming that of gold.*Take a look at the 19 charts below to see for yourself.] Words: 825 So says Prieur du Plessis ([url]www.investmentpostcards.com[/url]) *in an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below*for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unalt...


You Know That Your City Has Become A Hellhole When….

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 04:10 PM PDT

Did Michael Snyder overlook any examples of Life in the Big Hellhole?  I get the feeling this list is only the beginning. ~ Ilene 

You Know That Your City Has Become A Hellhole When….

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse

All across America there are cities and towns that were once prosperous and beautiful that are being transformed into absolute hellholes.  The scars left by the long-term economic decline of the United States are getting deeper and more gruesome.  The tax base in many areas of the nation has been absolutely devastated as millions of jobs have left this country.  Hundreds of cities are drowning in debt and are desperately trying to survive. 

Last year, city government revenues in the United States fell by another 2.3 percent.  That was the fifth year in a row that we have seen a decline.  Meanwhile, costs associated with health care, pensions and virtually everything else continue to explode.  So what are cities doing to make ends meet?  Well, one big trend that we are now witnessing is that many U.S. cities have been getting rid of huge numbers of employees.  If you can believe it, 72 percent of all U.S. cities are laying workers off this year.  Social services and essential infrastructure programs are also being savagely cut back in many areas of the country. The cold, hard truth is that most of our cities are flat broke and things are going to get even worse in the years ahead.

So how do you know if your own city has become a hellhole?

Well, a few potential "red flags" are posted below....

You know that your city has become a hellhole when most of the street lights get repossessed because of unpaid electric bills.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when it announces that it will no longer prosecute domestic violence cases in order to save money.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when it simply stops sending out pension checks to retired workers.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when it rips up asphalt roads and replaces them with gravel because gravel is cheaper to maintain.

desperateYou know that your city has become a hellhole when it eliminates the entire public bus system.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when nearly half of all the people living there can't read.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when one out of every ten homes sells for under $10,000.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when you can literally buy a house for one dollar.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when you have hundreds of people living in the tunnels underneath your streets.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when three of your past five mayors have been sent to prison for corruption.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when nearly half of the public schools in the city get shut down because of a lack of money.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when you have dozens of young people rampaging in the streets that are thirsty for revenge and that are armed with bats, pipes and guns.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when it is considered to be one of the 10 most dangerous cities in the world. [Note: Capetown came in first, Detroit came in third, and New Orleans came in ninth. - ed.]

You know that your city has become a hellhole when thieves defecate in the back seat after they have broken into your car and taken your things.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when prostitution and drug dealing are two of the only viable businesses that remain in the city.

You know that your city has become a hellhole when the police chief announces that the police department will no longer respond to calls about burglary and identity theft due to very deep budget cuts.

Many of the examples above may seem humorous at first glance, but the truth is that they reveal just how deeply tragic our economic decline really is.

This is one of the reasons why I write about our trade deficit over and over and over.  Every single month, tens of billions of dollars more wealth goes out of the United States than enters it.  Every single month, we are getting poorer as a nation.  Every single month, we lose more jobs and businesses.

Any politician that tells you that he or she can solve our economic problems without fundamentally addressing our horrific trade imbalance is lying to you.  That means that there are a whole lot of liars in both political parties.

If the number of good jobs continues to decline, the plight of the average American family is going to continue to get worse.  Home sales will continue to hover around record lows.  The American people will continue to become increasingly frustrated with the economy.

The signs of decline are all around us.

Quit listening to the politicians and just open up your eyes and look.

So do any of you have any additional signs that a city has become a hellhole to add to the list above?  Please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts below.... 

Second picture credit: Jak's View From Vancouver


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 1% and 3%

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 04:00 PM PDT

Gold fell as much as $27.94 to $1652.76 by about 10AM EST before it rallied back higher in the last few hours of trade, but it still ended with a loss of 0.82%. Silver dropped to as low as $31.447 before it also bounced back higher, but it still ended with a loss of 2.99%.


Silver Shortage? Perth Mint Out of Silver?

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 03:48 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: If anyone can verify or properly dispute this, please leave it in the comments section...]

from silver-shortage.blogspot.com:

Breaking News – My Australian contact got a letter. The Perth mint is out of silver. Here is the actual letter my contact received. Feel free to repost this video on your channel. I've had problems ordering from the Royal Canadian Mint for a week now. Some orders haven't arrived, in particular my Kangaroo at Sunset coin. When I contacted the mint I waited for 45 minutes to get through on the phone and once I spoke to someone the person on the phone said their computers Crashed last week. He also said that it would take until next week to get the problem with my online account fixed.

Read More @ Silver-Shortage.Blogspot.com


Israel & Saudi Arabia Behind Iranian Terror Plot?

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 02:59 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: Seriously, putting Judge Andrew Napolitano on FOX News is like storing gold bullion in an outhouse. At least someone with some sense is on the mainstream media.]


Black Swans May Be Ugly Duckling Investments

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 02:33 PM PDT

from WealthCycles:

All the gloom and doom around the global economy has given rise to some odd duck investment products—what are known as "black swan" and tail-risk hedge funds. Basically, when you invest in these products you are betting that things are going to go very, very wrong. Typically investors use black swan investments to hedge against losses their more traditional investments. For example, if you invest in an index fund that tracks the S&P 500, and the bottom drops out of the S&P 500, you would lose money. But if you also have invested in a "black swan" fund that pays off when the S&P 500, you have offset at least a portion of your losses. If it sounds like you are betting against yourself, well, you are.

The term "black swan" was coined by finance professor and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the best-selling The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The term means an event that has a very low probability of occurring but that, if it were to occur, would have a catastrophic impact. The Japanese tsunami causing a nuclear crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers are two examples of black swan events. (Several WealthCycles.com articles have referred to Taleb and the black swan phenomenon, including The Grand Fallacy of This Time Is Different.)

Read More @ WealthCycles.com


Kevin Michael Grace: Auguries -- Fort Potemkin

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 02:15 PM PDT

10:12p ET Thursday, October 13, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Kevin Michael Grace of Resource Clips comments today on the latest episode of "Brad Meltzer's 'Decoded,'" the History Channel program that examined the secrecy around the U.S. gold reserve said to be vaulted at Fort Knox in Kentucky. Grace's commentary is headlined "Auguries -- Fort Potemkin" and you can find it at Resource Clips here:

http://resourceclips.com/2011/10/13/auguries-fort-potemkin/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Lewis E. Lehrman, chairman of the Lehrman Institute, sponsor of The Gold Standard Now project, has released a plan to restore economic growth through a stable dollar.

The plan, titled "The True Gold Standard: A Monetary Reform Plan Without Official Reserve Currencies," responds to the recurrent economic crises of the last century and outlines a detailed proposal for America's leadership on "how we get from here to there." That is, how we get from the present unstable paper dollar to a stable dollar as good as gold.

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No Need for Panic Over Gold ETFs

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 02:08 PM PDT

by Vedran Vuk, Casey Research:

Dear Reader,

I read an article at Mother Jones magazine titled 6 Big Economic Myths Debunked. It's quite a saddening piece, as it shows the power of confirmation bias. Let's briefly look at these myths one at a time:

1. "The stimulus failed." Oh yes, what a success that stimulus was. This claim is backed by the Congressional Budget Office's and two other private firms' reports. Other reports – as well as the price tag – are ignored. Some have estimated that the stimulus cost $278,000 per job. Even if the stimulus did create the jobs, at that price it's an abysmal failure. The government could have just written checks instead.

The article notes that the stimulus should have been bigger. How much bigger – $2 or $3 trillion? It was already enormous. Myth debunked? I think not.

Read More @ CaseyResearch.com


...and we wonder why Gold and Silver are down

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 01:45 PM PDT

The U.S. dollar index erased early gains today and ended slightly lower as the euro reversed early losses and ended higher on easing tensions over European banks.

...and Gold and Silver are BOTH lower?

S&P downgrades Spain's debt rating on weak economy- AP

...and Gold and Silver are BOTH lower?

Foreigners Dump $74 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks: Biggest Sequential Outflow In History- Zero Hedge

...and Gold and Silver are BOTH lower?

Fitch may downgrade BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman- AP

...and Gold and Silver are BOTH lower?

For how much longer must we endure this bullshit?  The barometer of TRUTH must be set free!

Key regulator calls for limits on speculation in commodities markets

Exclusive: CFTC has votes to pass position limits

CFTC May Finish Curbs on Speculation Oct. 18, Gensler Says

SPECIAL REPORT: Position Limit Scenarios
By Bix Weir
The new Bank Participation Report for September has been posted and it looks like the top 3 or less US Banks that had offside silver short positions are closing in on being under the proposed position limit law just in the nick of time!

Here's the numbers

9/6/2011 = 23,859 net short

10/6/2011 = 14,388 net short.

http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/index.htm


Basically, the top 3 or less banks were able to cover 9,471 short contracts by orchestrating the latest silver slam from $42/oz down near $28/oz. Many suspect the majority of this short position resides at JP Morgan. That may be but if this is split evenly between 3 banks they are now under 5,000 contracts each or quickly nearing the proposed position limit formula of around 4,500 contracts at the moment. The timing of this short position being congruent with the expected position limit proves beyond a doubt that the many delays in implementation of this rule were orchestrated to give the banksters time to cover.


JP Morgan Covered 36 Million Ounces of Naked Silver Shorts Since Sept 6th
From SilverDoctors
We have speculated previously that JP Morgan was attempting to extricate itself from its 120 Million ounce naked short silver position during silver's most recent sell-off.
The CFTC's October Bank Participation Report seems to substantiate this fact.

On September 6th, 4 large US banks held 24,584 short silver contracts, the equivalent of a 122,920,000 ounce short silver position.

The 4 large US banks' silver shorts had grown every month since silver's May smash-down, during which the same 4 banks had massively covered into the take-down and reduced their short position to 20,613 contracts.
The latest CFTC Bank Participation Report for October indicates that these same 4 large US banks (chiefly JP Morgan and HSBC) covered 7,177 silver shorts or 35,885,500 ounces during the September silver smash-down!
This means that effectively, JP Morgan and the other 3 major US banks (mostly JP Morgan) have reduced their naked silver shorts by approximately 29% during the latest PAPER FUTURES take-down.
At 17,407 contracts, the naked short COMEX futures position has now been reduced to 87,035,000 ounces- the smallest short position JP Morgan has held since it acquired Bear Stearns' silver shorts in 2008. While this leaves JP Morgan and the other shorts in a much better position than several weeks ago when they held over 122 million ounces short, obviously this is still nowhere near a respectable cap should the CFTC ever actually implement position limits mandated by the Frank-Dodd act.

...and we wonder why Gold and Silver are down...IT'S OBVIOUS WHY!!!!!


Foreigners Dump $74 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks: Biggest Sequential Outflow In History

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 01:22 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed's custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global). We also proposed a far simpler theory: "the dreaded D-day in which foreign official and private investors finally start offloading their $2.7 trillion in Treasurys with impunity (although not with the element of surprise – China has made it abundantly clear it will sell its Treasury holdings, the only question is when), has finally arrived." In hindsight the Occam's Razor should have been applied. Little did we know 5 short days ago just how violent the reaction by China would be (both post and pre-facto) to the Senate decision to propose a law for all out trade warfare with China. Now we know – in the week ended October 12, a further $17.7 billion was "removed" from the Fed's custodial Treasury account, meaning that someone, somewhere is very displeased with US paper, and, far more importantly, what it represents, and wants to make their displeasure heard loud and clear. Whether it is China – we do not know: we may have a better view in two months when the September/October TIC data hits, but even then it will be full of errors, as Direct Bidder purchases by the UK usually end up being assigned to China at the yearly TIC audit. And the sellers know this all too well. What they also know is that over the next few days (or weeks – ZH tends to be a little "aggressive" in its estimates for popular uptake), as soon as the broader population understands what has transpired, concerns about the reserve status of the greenback will start to resurface, precisely as many have been warning. And what has happened is that in six consecutive weeks, foreigners have sold $74 billion, or more government bonds in a sequential period of time than ever before.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com


Risk Off Trading Today / Gold and Silver Hold Their Own / Earnings at JPMorgan Suspect

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 01:13 PM PDT

by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

It seems that the risk is on today as gold and silver were hit as well as global bourses. The whole world is waiting for results from the G7 on how they are going to handle the Greek problem. Merkel and Sarkozy promised us a definitive plan by the end of the month and a blueprint with this weekend's G7 meetings.

Gold finished the comex session at $1667.30 down $14.00 whereas silver finished at 31.63 down $1.12

Let us head over to the comex and see how trading fared today.

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.com


Factors to Consider When Buying a Gold Bullion ETF

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 12:13 PM PDT

There are many legitimate reasons to trade in gold and its derivatives. Gold has been proven time and time again to be an excellent "safe haven" investment, a holding that will appreciate in value during times of economic uncertainty. As such, gold may offer some valuable hedging and diversification benefits for a long-term portfolio.*A number of exchange-traded products offering exposure to gold prices but not all gold ETFs are created equal. Here's a quick rundown of factors to consider when making an investment in a gold ETF. Words: 1268 So says the Andy Hagans ([url]www.etfdb.com)*[/url]in an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below*for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragra...


THE BIG PICTURE

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 12:12 PM PDT

More often than not we as investors get caught up in the day-to-day action and never take the time to step back and look at the big picture. Today I'm just going to post some long term charts with appropriate annotations.










THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL.




This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Return to Gold Standard? Why Price Would Hit $10,000

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 10:40 AM PDT

All the major countries in the world are in a race to debase their currencies in order to restart their economies. Either economic growth returns or—as some doomsayers predict—the 40-year run of fiat currencies ends.

And if under this worst case scenario the solution was to return to the gold standard of the Nixon years, the price of bullion would be worth $10,000-plus, six-times the current price, according to Paul Brodsky, co-managing member of QB Asset Management company and a self-professed 'Gold Bug.'

To be sure, a return to the exact terms of the Bretton Woods Monetary Agreement is a near political impossibility because of the traumatic devaluation in the U.S. dollar it would cause. Yet, a move away from debt-based currencies to a system somewhat based on hard assets is not out of the picture if the global economy doesn't recover or policy makers don't allow for a painful deleveraging, some investors say.

"Policy makers are holding a burning match," Brodsky said in a speech to a packed crowd at The Big Picture conference Tuesday in New York. "Baseless currencies follow the tyranny of short-term politics and so shall this."

The country's monetary base (currency in circulation plus bank reserves held at the Fed) has tripled to $2.68 trillion, following the completion of QE2. Dividing this monetary base by the approximate 261.5 million ounces gold the U.S. Treasury is believed to own gets Brodsky to the $10,000 an ounce figure.

While "politics are likely to intervene" to stop gold from skyrocketing to this destabilizing price, that doesn't mean bullion can't keep surging from current levels as the devaluations continue, said Brodsky.

Read more

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Gold Vs. Miners: The Wrong Question, Part I

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 10:33 AM PDT

by Adrian Ash BullionVault Thursday, 13 October 2011 You want leverage in gold? Buy bullion. It keeps turning every 1% gain in gold mining stocks into a 2% rise... SO WHY is it that gold mining stocks underperforming the metal so badly? "Gold stocks should be a levered bet on the price of gold...There has been a terrible underperfomance," as one UK forum posting said back in June. "Thought this could be a good hedge against market meltdown but doesn't follow gold price," said another gold mining fund holder in August. "Switched my portfolio to Blackrock Gold Acc in Feb. '11 with the naive thinking it would give me a good exposure to gold prices," said a third. "Gold has jumped 30% since then, but the fund is pretty much at the same price. "I know there must be a lot of people in the same situation." Too true. February 2011 saw retail investors using UK brokerage TD Waterhouse choose Blackrock Gold & General as the top holding in their tax-protected ISA accounts for th...


Working Towards that Maserati

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 10:08 AM PDT

At the bottom of  the front page in our local newspaper today came this Seattle Times report, another one of those human interest stories about people panning for gold in the Great Outdoors, this particular group of prospectors clearly doing it for fun, not the money.

Do I like working for 60 cents an hour?

On a recent afternoon, about seven miles north of Highway 2 in Snohomish County, Chuck and Jim and Rusty and Harold are wading around Olney Creek, looking for gold.

It is quite picturesque, on this cloudy but warm September day, the men standing in their hip waders in this shallow creek that meanders through the forest.

They've got all the necessary equipment: the traditional gold pans, as well as a contraption called a sluice box that speeds up separation of gold from gravel and portable generators to run the equipment.

Still, even with all that gear, time … just … goes … by.

Harold Ogilvie, 57, who lives in Sultan, has been looking for gold in various creeks for seven months. He figures he's put in some 500 hours prospecting, which has yielded him maybe $300 of gold, he says.

Let's see, 300 divided by 500, that's 60 cents an hour. Not enough for the down payment on that Maserati.

Discovery Channel's Gold Rush Alaska returns in two weeks and, based on last year's effort, this group clearly isn't doing it for the money either – at least not the money they receive from selling gold (whatever deal they have as Discovery Channel's top rated show is another matter). After an investment of more than a quarter million dollars and an entire summer's work, they came away with about 15 ounces of gold (~$20,000 at last summer's prices), but they're looking to improve on that this summer working a new claim in the Yukon Territory.


Handout Nation

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 09:41 AM PDT

Bill Bonner View the original article. October 13, 2011 11:37 AM The Dow rose 102 points yesterday. Gold rose $21. Nothing to get excited about…so let's move on. "Ireland is the only country that has been able to pull off any significant amount of austerity," said Chris Hunter, an analyst with the Bonner Family Office here at its Irish headquarters. "And it seems to be working. The Irish are remarkably passive about it. We haven't had any riots. Not even a lot of complaining. "I guess we realized it was a bit of a lark all along. I mean, building big houses all over the country. There was a time when property in Dublin was more expensive than property in London. We knew it couldn't last. We knew we'd have to pay for it someday. So, here we are…and we all seem to accept the fact that it's going to be difficult." We drove up to Kilkenny to have lunch with economist David McWilliams. He gave us a simple explanation of the European economy: "If the Germans expect us to c...


Gold 20 Day Average Serving as Resistance

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 09:41 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com October 13, 2011 07:27 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Gold has held up for 2 weeks now but the rally may be failing at the 20 day average. A break below the line that extends off of the September and October lows would warn of a run at the September lows (and 200 day average – currently at 1544). Trend Strength (M,W,D) – 1, 0, 0 Latest Video Weekly Forecast COT...


The Great Crash and Beyond

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 09:25 AM PDT

The worst quarter for stocks since the first quarter of 2009 sent me back to the dusty archives of finance. Amid old tomes, I searched for what I might learn from the dark markets of years past. I found a collection of articles called The Great Crash and Beyond. They date from 1979, put together on the 50th anniversary of the crash of 1929. Only a handful of years before, the market fell by half (1973-74). Inside, I find writers reflecting on the mosaic of Wall Street history and the continuity of markets across the time. There are many useful ideas here to keep in mind as our own potential collapse unfolds. If we did suffer another crash, it would be the third in little more than a decade, following on the heels of the 2000-02 and 2007-09 meltdowns. (As I write, the market is down about 17% from its highs on the year.) A few of my favorites follow. Investors place too much emphasis on economic forecasts. These forecasts are too often in error. They repeatedly miss economic turns an...


Gold Price Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Is Calling For Higher Prices, Comex Closed at $1,667.30

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 09:21 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1667.30
Change : (14.00) or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.633
Change : (1.121) or -3.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.71
Change : 1.376 or 2.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01897
Change : -0.000509 or -2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1540.00
Change : -15.00 or -1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 597.00
Change : -15.00 or -2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,203.66
Change : -3.59 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $142.31
Change : $ 0.70 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.884
Change : 0.034 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 362.85
Change : 11.18 or 3.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,478.13
Change : -40.72 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 76.97
Change : -0.022 or 0.0%

Today, once again, the GOLD PRICE failed to break through $1,675 - $1,680. It's narrowed its range some, and twice defended a $1,655 low. And today's high at $1,681.50 climbed a little higher than Monday's, but that's not breaking through resistance. That's failing. I expect tomorrow will show lower prices, and a lot lower if gold breaks $1,653. On the topside, watch $1,680 resistance. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is calling for higher gold.

On the Comex today, where the black shirts take no prisoners, gold dropped $14 to close at $1,667.30.

The SILVER PRICE chart resembles the GOLD PRICE chart only a little wilder. 3300c resistance has again corralled and hogtied silver. The SILVER PRICE never fell below 3144.4c, but by the time they rang that Comex bell, it has lost 112.1c to 3163.3c. Whole day was one long decline.

Maybe SILVER and GOLD are carving out new trading ranges, $1,650 to $1,682 and 3140c to 3300c. Maybe, but if they fall below those levels, we face more frustrating range trading or new lows.

What might happen if my interpretation of SILVER and GOLD right now is all wrong? What if they've already bottomed, and I've launched myself on another fool's errand, waiting for 'em to drop a little lower?

Might be. We'll know that for sure if the GOLD PRICE trades above $1,800 and stays. The SILVER PRICE is so volatile that I don't want to set any target there, just use gold as a trigger.

Why am I thinking this way? The Long Run came last night to mind. I hear The Media Mighty saying Gold's career is most likely over, and Silver's most surely, and I scratch my head. Folks don't talk that way at market tops, when you can't find a doubter with a telescope, microscope, and Geiger counter. Nor have silver and gold even matched by a third the last bull market's performance. Nor have any of the causes boosting SILVER and GOLD changed. Have any of y'all heard the Federal Reserve will be abolished? That the yankee government will stop trying to run the economy and stop waging wars around the world to make everybody nice like us? Naww, y'all haven't heard any of that, so none of the causes have changed.

Thus I confess I am playing a perilous game, holding out for lower prices -- lower by a few percentage points, even 15%, when I expect silver and gold to treble or quadruple from here. But for all that, markets have been teaching me for years -- with a barbed wire whip to make the lesson sink in -- that sometimes patience and waiting prove wisest.

But y'all need not feel obliged to copy my bad, natural-born- fool example. You might decide, with good reason, that you'd rather trust SILVER or GOLD than to leave you money in those Mothers of All Monetary Mischief and Larceny, the banks. I won't gainsay you a minute.

Did y'all ever notice how little it takes to strip away your veneer of civilization? For me, a rainy autumn day with the wild wet smell of Tennessee woods works just as well as a sunny spring day. If they didn't chain my ankle to this computer, I'd be as scarce around here as Big Foot. I'd run wild in the woods, eat hickory nuts, and drink from the creeks, but here I am so let's talk about markets. (Don't even talk about playing bag pipes or banjo music. Do that, and I'll break the chain.)

Mercy, you'd be in a mess if you had to trade currencies for a living. Today the Franken-currency is trading as I write at 1.3784, down a gigantic 0.01. That doesn't quite paint the picture, though, because it spent most of its day lower, low as 1.3685. Now maybe it was just filling that gap it left two days ago, or maybe its bouncing off that lower boundary of the range whence it broke down. Either way, y'all can HAVE my helping of the euro. I can't abide the taste of it.

Yen barely traded today, but last traded at 130.13c/Y100 (Y76.85/$1), up 0.53% and almost enough to read on the chart that it moved.

US DOLLAR INDEX today sidled between 77.433 and 76.843. Can't argue that 77.40 slapped its

jaws, but not too bad. Dollar's holding tight to 77, but as I've been saying, even if it slides to 76, it has in mind to climb above 80. That may take a while to unfold, but it will come. Only a bad fall below 76 would change my mind.

Mercy! 'Tis awfully easy to let your eyes slip off the horizon and let today's events cloud your mind. The air of unthreatened calm that hangs over us here is a falsehood. I reckon we're like men working in a TNT factory: everything's all right until some fool strikes a match. Tomorrow I'm going to send y'all some suggestions for securing a little more peace of mind.

STOCKS spent the day contradicting themselves. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 rose, while the senior indices fell. Pattern of trading was altogether different. Nasdaq and N-100 fiddled, then about 11:30 took off upside and gained most of the day. Dow and S&P500 stayed underwater all day, and only drew nigh the surface near day's end.

Dow closed at 11,478.13, down 40.75 or 0.35%. S&P 500 lost 3.59 (0.3%) to 1,203.66.

I know lots of folks are singing that the Dow will rally from here, and it may, but it's having a hard time crawling out of the congestion area posted since the August waterfall.

STOCKS -- they are the iron life-jacket Wall Street throws to Main Street, drowning in confusion.

Y'all won't believe this, but I was working at home today and got a phone call from Nielsen, the company that tracks TV viewership. Nice lady asked me how much TV I watched and I said -- nicely, now -- I said there wasn't anything I wanted to watch. She asked if she could send me a notebook to track my TV watching for a week, and I said, sure, if it's got asbestos pages and you don't mind my writing down what I really think, minus the cusswords. She was very sweet, but those folks have no idea who they're messing with.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


Dollar Printing Uses 9.7 Tons Of Ink Per Day, And Other Fast Facts About The US Dollar

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 09:01 AM PDT

Just like goldbugs know the serial number of every single gold bar held (allegedly) in the GLD by heart, so the Federal Reserve carries a soft place in its corrupt,  evil heart for fiat and the assorted trivia surrounding it. For example did you know that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing has two facilities, one in Washington, D.C. and the other in Fort Worth, Texas.  Together they use approximately 9.7 tons of ink per day. So while paper money may or may not a disappearing species, here are, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, some "fun" facts about the US Dollar that readers may not be aware of as they make funeral arrangements for the endlessly dilutable combination of 75% cotton/25% linen.

From the Federal Reserve's indoctrination segment.

  • The Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces 26 million notes a day, with a face value of approximately $907 million.
  • Over 90 percent of U.S. currency is Federal Reserve notes.
  • A stack of currency one-mile high would contain more than 14.5 million notes.
  • Currency is actually fabric composed of 25 percent linen and 75 percent cotton.  Currency paper has tiny red and blue synthetic fibers of various lengths evenly distributed through out the paper.
  • The $2 bill first originated on June 25, 1776, when the Continental Congress authorized issuance of the $2 denominations in "bills of credit for the defense of America."
  • The first dollar coin was issued in 1782.
  • The dollar was officially adopted as our nation's unit of currency in 1785.
  • The largest bill ever printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing was the $100,000 gold certificate.
  • The U.S. Secret Service was created during the Civil War to fight counterfeiting.
  • The motto "In God We Trust" did not appear on paper currency until 1963.
  • The Bureau of Engraving and Printing has two facilities, one in Washington, D.C. and the other in Fort Worth, Texas.  Together they use approximately 9.7 tons of ink per day.
  • The approximate weight of a bill is one gram.  Since there are 454 grams in one pound, there are 454 notes in one pound.
  • The largest note produced today is the $100 bill.
  • It costs approximately 6.4 cents per note to produce U.S. currency.
  • About 45 percent of the notes printed each year are $1, and 95 percent are used as replacement notes.
  • About 4,000 double folds (forward and backward) are required before a note will tear.
  • The average life of a Federal Reserve note depends upon its denomination:
    $1 bill - 21 months
    $5 bill - 16 months
    $10 bill - 18 months
    $20 bill - 2 years
    $50 bill - 4.5 years
    $100 bill - 7.5 years


Gold still being held by $1680

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 08:41 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] The battle for $1680 is increasing in intensity as bears dig in to prevent what they know will be a defeat if they allow the metal to move convincingly through this level. The factor allowing them to push a bit harder against the bulls today (and unnerving the bulls somewhat) was increasing doubts concerning the European bank recapitalization plan. Get used to this - One might as well pick a Flowering Daisy and pull the petals one at a time: "She loves me; she loves me not". That is what "investing" has been degraded to nowadays. Tomorrow brings the end of the trading week. If gold can go out over $1680 into the weekend, it will be "GAME ON" for the bulls. If not, we remain trapped in the range trade that has been the model for the last few weeks. Silver was whacked for a 3% loss today as the Risk Aversion trades came back on the heels of the concern over the European bank plan deal. If ...


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 08:17 AM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The Daily Market Report

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 08:16 AM PDT

Slovakia Passage of EFSF Initiates Relief Rally in Euro


The euro rebounded and the dollar came under renewed pressure after Slovakia passed the ESFS expansion a day ahead of the expected vote on Friday. The passage comes at the expense of the government itself, which collapsed earlier in the week when the initial ESFS vote was tied to a confidence vote.

While the ESFS bailout fund may now end up with additional fire-power, the details remain up in the air. Nonetheless, bailouts have proven over the last several years to be nothing more than a delaying action, as they do nothing to fundamentally alter the underlying problem. In fact, they may make things worse; as evidenced by the fact that Greece continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency despite multiple bailouts. The US economy too remains moribund despite a huge stimulus in 2009 and extensive and ongoing monetary easing.

The euro rebounded on the latest glimmer of hope that the end is not necessarily nigh. The dollar and gold retreated into their respective ranges as the need for a safe-haven was seen to have diminished; although arguably the greenback is no safe-haven at all. However, movements in all these markets have been generally tepid, amid persistent doubt that debt crisis can indeed be contained.

Now focus is truly on the grand Franco-German deal to save Europe. Details on this as yet undefined plan have been promised by the end of the month. The plan is widely expected to involve bank recapitalization and perhaps a final solution for Greece. They'll call it a restructuring of Greek debt, but at best it will be a controlled default. Estimates of the haircuts that will be required on Greek debt continue to vary widely, but they're all generally higher than the 21% haircuts that were promised just in July. Most current estimates are in the 30-50% range, although some still believe they may prove to be as high as 90%.

If the haircut is ultimately closer to that 90% then the low end of the range, the EU is going to have to do some serious recapitalization to prevent the European banking system from imploding. Where the money will come from remains in doubt, but as the 'too-big-to-fail' mentality continues to rule the day, they'll find the liquidity somewhere. Much of it may in fact come from the Fed; and the requisite swap lines are already in place.

One thing we can be reasonably assured of, is that a massive liquidity-pump to save Greece and/or the European banking system and prevent contagion to core-Europe will elevate gold; both as a result of the heightened systemic risk and due to the resulting devaluation of fiat currencies.


Attack on China’s ‘Currency Manipulation’ More Western Hypocrisy

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 07:20 AM PDT

I apologize to readers if it seems that I overuse the term "hypocrisy" in my writing. My defense is simple, if I was reporting on a massacre it would be impossible to do so without regularly using the word "murder" (or some synonym). Similarly, living in an age of rampant hypocrisy on the part of our governments, it is impossible to accurately report on the outrageous conduct of Western governments without frequently invoking the accusation of hypocrisy.

The examples of such hypocrisy are too numerous to list in full, but I'll offer a small sampling. While these political stooges regularly criticize the rapacious Western multinational banks, there has been zero in the way of "punishment" or even regulation. Instead, all our hypocrite governments have done is reward the crimes of these bankers with ever-larger hand-outs – with European governments now taking their turn to shower bail-out dollars on their own banking crime syndicate.

Meanwhile, what these same governments are doing to their own people can only be described as the economic equivalent of "raping and pillaging". The combination of near-zero interest rates and savage (real) inflation rates severely punish anyone with savings, and is nothing less than an economic "crime against humanity" against our swelling retired populations.

These people no longer have the capacity to generate incomes to even partially protect themselves from this economic rape. Then to add further "insult" (and hypocrisy) to the injuries inflicted upon us by our own traitor-governments, we have to listen to lectures from these hypocrites about how individuals are taking on too much debt. The same governments who are the biggest deadbeat-debtors in the history of the world, and punish "savers" more than any governments in history have the audacity to criticize their own peoples because we have been forced to emulate their own reckless behavior.

It would seem that these governments have already "set the bar so high" when it comes to their hypocritical behavior that nothing could compare to these past outrages. However underestimating the hypocrisy of Western political leaders would be just as foolish and naïve as underestimating the greed of the banksters whom they serve.

One of the most-repetitive themes of Western hypocrisy is to call China a "currency manipulator". Follow the "logic" of these serial liars. It is our own morally, intellectually, and economically bankrupt governments which began the game they have themselves dubbed "competitive devaluation" – literally a race to see which of these traitor-regimes can drive the value of their currency (our money) toward zero the fastest.

There can be absolutely no mistake about who is the instigator here, as there is abundant objective proof. Neutral countries like Brazil are very explicit in pointing the finger at Western central banks as the source of the vast majority of the new money-printing flooding global markets and destroying the global economy.

In an era of permanent near-zero interest rates across the Western world, the only possible way to further devalue one's currency is via excessive money-printing. Thus Western printing presses alone provide us with the "smoking gun" as to who are the real "currency manipulators". However the proof gets even more obvious. For the vast majority of the time that Western hypocrite-governments have been criticizing China as a "currency manipulator" China's currency was literally "pegged" to the U.S. dollar.


The Day They Banned Cash

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 07:07 AM PDT

Addison Wiggin – October 13, 2011

  • Coming soon to a state near you? A ban on selling your used junk for cash… and the ominous implications
  • Stocks slide… Chris Mayer on why you're better off thinking about equities the way you would about real estate
  • Byron King's golden guidance as the metal holds well above $1,600
  • "Borrow-and-spend" Tea Partiers and other ripostes to the readers offended by our comparison to Occupy Wall Street
  • Editors convene for our Safety & Survival Summit… If you can't attend, we have the next best thing

"Is this just stupid? Or sinister by design?" We couldn't help asking the question when confronted by a law that took effect in Louisiana on Aug. 15, 2011.

The short of it: In Louisiana, if you sell clothes or toys that your kids have outgrown for cash — more than once a month — you're now breaking the law.

And… the why: Over the summer, Louisiana lawmakers decided that mere laws against theft might've been good enough for Moses and his people back in the day, but not for the Pelican State.

The state legislature crafted and passed a new law designed to target copper and scrap thieves specifically… but entrapped a host of housewives and flea market aficionados in the process.

Given the tenor of the public debate these days, we're not sure what to make of the following details. You decide…

"Louisiana," reports New Orleans CityBusiness, "is among a handful of states and cities to ban junkyards from purchasing scrap with cash as police crack down on copper and metal thefts."

Unfortunately (perhaps), they've done much more than that.

"What sets the Louisiana law apart is its breadth," CityBusiness goes on. "Louisiana law bans cash purchases for all secondhand goods."

The letter of the law: "Anyone, other than a nonprofit entity, who buys, sells, trades in or otherwise acquires or disposes of junk or used or secondhand property more frequently than once per month from any other person, other than a nonprofit entity, shall be deemed as being in the business of a secondhand dealer."

"A secondhand dealer," the law continues, "shall not enter into any cash transactions in payment for the purchase of junk or used or secondhand property."

Huh?

[Ed note. One of the questions raised by the film we're screening in Baltimore this evening: "When, in our culture, did 'profit' become a bad thing? When did the nonprofits become the good people... and 'for profit' mean that you're bad?" We'll let you know how our Reserve audience responds to the themes in the film later...]

"The broad scope of the definition [of the law]," writes a gentleman named Thad Ackel, "can essentially encompass everyone; from your local flea market vendors and buyers to a housewife purchasing goods on eBay or Craigslist, to a group of guys trading baseball cards, they could all be considered secondhand dealers."

"The added restrictions under this recent legislation have come about under the pretense of cracking down on crime and helping the government take care of you, all at the cost of your individual privacy, economic, civil liberty and freedom."

Mr. Ackel's article has gone viral in the last 24 hours.

It appears he is a principal in a Louisiana auctioneer and has a vested interest in overturning the law. But in this case, his interest coincides with that of, well, just about anyone except nosy government officials who want a way to track your transactions.

"If you wish to be paid in cash, you're a criminal," says attorney Danielle Waterfield of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, representing more than 1,600 scrap dealers nationwide. "We have a problem with that."

But if Ms. Waterfield hopes to challenge the statute in court, she'll have an uphill climb. Federal courts have upheld similar statutes in New York, Mississippi and Tennessee. Those laws were more narrowly tailored to scrap metal, but in each case, they were challenged on the grounds that states and cities can't ban transactions in legal tender, i.e., Federal Reserve Notes.

Each time, the challenges were thrown out.

"States are saying, 'We have the right to specify the form in which the payments are made, then you can tender the check for any legal tender you want,'" explains Mark Beebe of the New Orleans law firm Adams and Reese. "They're not saying this is the only medium you can use and that's where it ends."

It gets worse.

"For every transaction," Ackel writes, "a secondhand dealer must obtain the seller's personal information such as their name, address, driver's license number and the license plate number of the vehicle in which the goods were delivered."

"They must also make a detailed description of the item(s) purchased and submit this with the personal identification information of every transaction to the local policing authorities through electronic daily reports."

Many scrap dealers do this already. Most people selling their odds and ends on Craigslist do not. So not only are cash transactions banned — the better to create a paper trail — the transaction must also be reported to law enforcement in real-time.

Questioned about the breadth of the Louisiana law, its sponsor, State Rep. Clifton Richardson (R-Baton Rouge), says, "I'm always open to improving it, but I don't want to weaken it."

Really?

[Editor's note: This law is far more ominous than the "new taxes and weird fees" we've been carping about. Or even the relentless law enforcement against kids who operate lemonade stands without a permit from the proper authorities. We have several suggestions to help you prepare should this trend begin to manifest in your town, right here.]

Whatever U.S. stocks gained yesterday, they've given up today. The Dow is down nearly 1%. The S&P 500 is back below 1,200.

J.P. Morgan's numbers managed to disappoint. So did the weekly unemployment claims, still above 400,000. China's trade surplus fell last month, fueling fears the Chinese juggernaut is running out of steam.

"Some things never change," says Chris Mayer, assessing the market's ups and downs of the last two months.

The choppy action has sent him back to his library, where he found a 1979 volume called The Great Crash and Beyond, marking the 50th anniversary of the 1929 crash.

"Today," money manager Robert Kirby wrote in one of the collected essays, "we make it look as though we are 'investing' through our extensive research and computers." But at the end of the day, many people still flip stocks based on "recent price behavior, rather than a careful assessment of what the company's future operating performance is apt to be."

Are things any different now? "This is evident today, in which the average holding period for stocks is scarcely eight months."

"Kirby also said you should think about investing in stocks as you would think about investing in real estate. Then you would focus on the asset itself and the return it generates."

"If people thought of stocks as real estate, they would be more careful about what they bought. They would think longer term and be better owners. Their results would be bound to improve."

Gold is pulling back after climbing within $20 of $1,700 yesterday. At last check, the spot price was $1,662.

Silver is proving itself more volatile as usual — down more than 2.5%, to $31.73.

"Despite the pullback in precious metal prices," says Byron King, "I'm still bullish for the long term. You can and should buy physical metal, of course."

"I'm bullish for precious metals because I'm bearish on the prospects for the dollar, as well as the euro and most other national currencies. Long term, it's just a question of which ones will decline the most, and in what order."

"How much of your portfolio should be in precious metals? At least 10%. That's the absolute bottom-line number. Any less, and you're really taking your financial situation for granted. In my view, metal holdings of 15% or 20% of your total portfolio are better. Or hold more, if your circumstances warrant it."

Byron will share some more speculative resource ideas tomorrow at our Safety & Survival Summit here in Baltimore. Strangely, he discovered all of them around the same latitude, in three far-flung spots across North America.

Reserve members in attendance will be clued in first about the "54 North" phenomenon. They'll also hear first about Chris' favorite picks "in case the world doesn't end."

But you won't be far behind if you sign up for the audio recordings of tomorrow's sessions. The price goes up as soon as the conference closes tomorrow afternoon, so it's best to move on this now.

"You were spot on in your comparison of Occupy Wall Street to the Tea Party," writes the first of many reactions we got to what has proven to be a very contentious proposition. "I never cease to be amazed at the cluelessness of Americans."

"People just don't listen to what is actually being said."

The 5: That or they read whatever they want into what's being said. Normally, we try to organize the mailbag in a coherent fashion. Sometimes we even orchestrate them to make a point of our own.

Today, however, we present the responses in no particular order, because they're all over the place:

"No reason why the Tea Party can't unite with Wall Street protestors and really sock it to those nervous suckers who occupy the Hill. 2012 is already shaping up to be an especially dramatic year."

"I am very happy to see such an outpouring of citizens involved in OWS, however misguided they are."

"Life is about timing, and I believe that the OWS group serves to attract attention to Wall Street at a time when I believe the requests for another bailout are almost upon us. As long as the OWS are in place, then the requests for a bailout will be put off, as such a request would surely outrage the citizenry and incite and grow the OWS to record levels."

"I can almost visualize the 'Too Big to Fail' bankers wringing their hands wondering when all this will blow over so they can ratchet up the fear-o-meter and have us all bend over for another round of Wall Street welfare."

"The Tea Party was instantly co-opted by the borrow-and-spend Repugs," a reader writes. "It doesn't look like the OWS will be as easily co-opted by either of the major parties. They're rightfully fed up with both of them."

"There was an excellent round-table discussion on Charlie Rose last night about OWS, which included a representative from the movement who said that it has reached the point where it doesn't matter what face occupies a position of power in the government or what party that face is from, they're all corrupted by the need for huge sums of money to run their campaigns. He also said that they're not anti-business or anti-corporation; they're anti-corruption and anti-bought government.

"Maybe you should spend more time finding libertarian values within the movement, which I strongly believe is our last hope, rather than finding fault. OWS is bringing the widespread outrage against crony capitalism and bought government into the headlines. Don't assist in the mainstream media's attempts to marginalize them."

"Are you truly prepared for the return to constitutional government?" writes a reader addressing Tea Partiers directly. "Do you live in debt?"

"If so, you yourself have fully participated in the greedy and corrupt practices of these four-plus decades. How so, you say? Simply, the borrower is servant (slave) to the lender. That is, you have willingly participated in a corrupt system by spending beyond your means (and that includes a home mortgage) to acquire possessions."

"And in doing so, you have willingly enslaved yourself. You cry for freedom and yet do not perceive your complicity in your bondage. Given this, your rebellion, then, is against the oppressors to whom you have been willingly beholden. 'The gravy train has crashed, give us new and different oppressors,' should be your mantra.

"You speak of freedom and know nothing of it. I'm voting for Ron Paul. God help us when he wins. We'll need it."

"OWS and Tea Party battling in the streets," a reader muses over our closing remark yesterday. "The government would not only love it, they would send out instigators to encourage it, if they haven't already done so."

"Such chaos would keep the mindless media babbling with bleeding heart analysis for weeks and take the focus away from the government that both groups want to discredit."

"I am not sure," writes another, as if fulfilling our prophecy, "you really understand how well prepared many of us Tea Party persons are for any potential 'battles.'

"We will not go to some park to seek out a fight with anyone. However, we will do whatever is necessary to defend and protect our families, friends and property… with lethal force, if necessary. It is not a threat, it is a promise."

"OWS and China," muses another reader over our writings the previous two days. "You should put the two together and see what you get.

"Take a militant OWS group that is nationwide and can communicate instantly with each other and a trade war with a China that refuses to buy Treasury bonds."

"Your responses to the Tea Partiers who disagreed with your comparison of them to the Wall Street protesters," writes our final correspondent, "shows that your main attribute is not intelligence, but intellectual arrogance.

"Making your money from gullible people, like me, does not require brilliance — but merely a basic dishonesty."

The 5: Thanks for playing along, then?

Cheers,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. "There is a bona fide reason for the protests on Wall Street," says our newest analyst, Michael Pento. "Of course, the egalitarian socialists in the crowd offer a cure that would be worse than the disease."

"But their anger emanates from a genuine realization that there is a growing wealth gap in the U.S. The American middle class is being slowly wiped out. The main culprit is the inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve, which has steadily eroded the purchasing power of the dollar.

Few new jobs, falling incomes and rising prices are what face the middle class. The only condition holding the country together is the teaser interest rate we are paying on our national debt. Thanks to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, we now pay just about 2% on our $10.1 trillion publicly traded debt.

"Once rates normalize — as they must, due to inflation and massive supply issuance of Treasuries — it will be game over. And the number of those protesters will increase exponentially."

Reserve members in attendance at our Safety & Survival Summit tomorrow will get to hear from Michael in person for the first time. He'll tackle the most urgent financial question you face: Will that "game over" scenario be a deflationary depression or a hyperinflation?

Your net worth rides on the answer. Michael's talk alone will be worth the price of the recordings of every session tomorrow. And you can have them on a handy MP3 file in your inbox next week by signing up at this link. Just remember that as soon as the conference wraps up a little over 24 hours from now, the price goes up 40%. Here's where to lock in the lowest possible price right now.


Are Commodity Prices About To Collapse?

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:24 AM PDT

Today I was looking at some interesting charts.

The first one was the CRX index (Commodity Related Index). I noticed that price has been moving sharply lower over the last couple of months, and is below the 50MA.
I then noticed a similar pattern in 2008.

I therefore placed todays price action on top of the price action in 2008:

Looks similar, right?

Well, then I was wondering why SLW (Silver Wheaton) has been such a bad performer. Of course, Silver took a big hit from $50 to $31 right now, but still, SLW underperformed silver this year, as can be seen in the following chart:

The chart above shows the ratio of SLW divided by SLV (iShares Silver Trust, which represents about 1 ounce of silver).
I then noticed a similar pattern today as in 2008, as price and the 50MA are both moving below the 200MA.

For those of you who don't see what I see:

Last but not least, have a look at the following chart of Silver:

Could it be that commodity prices have further to fall (CRASH)?

Charts above courtesy stockcharts.com

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Grassroots distrust of banks powering gold, Hathaway tells King World News

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:19 AM PDT

2:15p ET Thursday, October 13, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway today tells King World News that grassroots demand for metal is powering gold and silver higher because of distrust of banks and the inevitable monetary debasement that will result from bank "recapitalization" by central banks. An excerpt from the interview has been posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/13_J...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Platinum Drills 120.9 Meters
Grading 1.26 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
Monday, September 26, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) has announced the drill results received from its 2011 drilling Wellgreen platinum group elements, nickel, and copper project in the Yukon Territory.

Borehole WS11-188 encountered 457 meters of mineralization grading 0.47% nickel equivalent (including 0.72 grams per ton platinum, paladium, and gold) from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization, the hole encountered a high-grade section of 17.8 meters of 3.14 grams per ton platinum, palladium, and gold, 1.03% nickel, and 0.74% copper (1.77% nickel equivalent).

The hole was drilled completely outside of current resource boundaries, between the East Zone resource and the West Zone resource that was reported in the company's press release no July 14, 2011.

The high-grade intercept located between the two resources not only demonstrates that the East and West Zone resource form a single, geologically contiguous body but also indicates that the higher-grade material in the East Zone continues to the west and at depth at Wellgreen.

For drill result tables and maps, please see the company's full press release here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_sep26_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Marc Faber: Long The Dollar, But Occupy The Federal Reserve

Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:00 AM PDT


 

By EconMatters

 

Marc Faber, asset manager at the Gloom, Doom & Boom Report, popped in at CNBC (Clip Here) on Oct. 11 while visiting in Montreal, Canada (He is usually based in Thailand.)

 

Faber expects volatility to continue (not necessarily means a downside to the markets), but dollar should be a long trade as whenever there's a bubble, e.g. tech bubble, housing bubble, stocks bubble, and commodities bubble, usually after the bubble bursts, there typically will be a 10-15 years of volatility before markets settle down to reignite an uptrend. 

"Despite the fact that the [European Central Bank] and the European government will flood the market with liquidity to bail themselves out, global liquidity is tightening.....Whenever global liquidity is tightening it is bad for asset prices but good for the U.S. dollar, as was the case in 2008."

He thinks there had been far too many "interventions" by the Western governments, where the total share of the economy that's government owned or sponsored have grown tremendously,.  Add to that, the high levels of debt, it is almost impossible for the developed countries including Japan, the U.S. and Western Europe to grow.  

 

When the economy stagnates over a long period of time, people ("the 99%) seeking answers start to go after the "top 1%" minority like Wall Street, which took advantage of the system for profits.  However, it was Washington and the lobbyists who created the system to begin with.  So from that perspective, Occupy Wall Street should move to DC and Occupy the Federal Reserve on the way, Faber laments.

 

His solution for the U.S. economy - Flat tax on everybody "would be a good measure", and reducing the restrictive regulatory environment to encourage business to start investing again.  Moreover, the lack of savings is the biggest problem of the U.S.  Essentially, the U.S. will have to work more, and get paid less to get out of this mess.

 

EconMatters Commentary 

 

Dollar, despite the Federal Reserve's continuous QEs and twist, is still holing up well attesting to the dangerous state of the world's finance and economy.  So in the near term, dollar could be still king, but with a high degree of uncertainty longer term, depending on how the Euro, the closest competing currency, will come out from this seemingly ever expanding EU sovereign debt crisis.

 

As to the economic and fiscal state of the U.S., we are not as pessimistic as Faber, but have written many times that the U.S. has many structural issues in the labor market, and the vital decisions of the country are  and will be made based on politics, and by politicians who can't walk the talk.  If the U.S. does not start to make some fundamental changes, it could eventually prove Faber right.  

 

Towards the end of the interview, Faber made reference to Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of the Republic of Singapore for three decades.  Lee Kuan Yew retired in May 2011, but has remained one of the most influential political figures in South-East Asia.

 

In the three decades during Lee's tenure as PM, the country has been transformed from a developing economy to one that's the most developed in Asia.  However, the "Singapore Model" is based partly on a socialistic structure (e.g., single political party, state planning, and state-owned enterprises).

 

Dr. Doom Roubini, in an interview with Business Day less than a month ago, also noted Singapore could be one country that he was not averse to state involvement in the economy and held up Singapore as an economy that might be shielded from global shocks.

 

So we find it quite interesting that as a result of the global financial crisis, more and more Western economists are now moving towards socialism, while the more socialist countries such as China are becoming more capitalistic.  Could this be the New World Order underway? .

 

Further Reading:

Wall Street Bailout: Fed's $1.2 Trillion Secret Loans

Occupy Boston - Day One 


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