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Thursday, October 13, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


The Shovel and Hole Maneuver For Hiding Gold, Guns and Other Assets

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 06:39 PM PDT

Shtfplan


TYRANNY OF THE FASCIST STATE: California Gardasil Law Signed – Children to Get Dangerous Vaccine WITHOUT Parental Consent

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 05:33 PM PDT

By Anthony Gucciardi

Thanks to California governor Jerry Brown, Merck's human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine Gardasil will now be given to children 12 years or older without parental consent. Omitting parents from the entire equation, California lawmakers are now leaving 12-year-old children to make their own health decisions.

The decision to be vaccinated with the Gardasil HPV vaccine is a particularly risky decision, a decision that thousands of young girls and boys wish they could have re-made. Gardasil, of course, has wrecked thousands of lives nationwide, even leading to over 49 deaths. Considering these facts, why would legislators and Jerry Brown allow for such an insane bill to become a law?

How Merck used bribery to pass the Gardasil bill

As it turns out, there is an answer to that question: the almighty dollar. Merck used financial power to ensure that the bill would pass by paying off key legislators…

Read More @ Infowars.com

HPV Gardasil Vaccine Proves Lethal – 47 Girls Now Dead


Today?s Financial Realities and Dow:Gold Ratio Strongly Suggest You Change the Way Yo

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 05:23 PM PDT

So says Nick Barisheff ([url]www.bmgbullion.com[/url])**in an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below*for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Barisheff goes on to say: Asset allocation is usually taken for granted as being a mix of the three main asset classes: stocks, bonds and cash. Many investors believe that a broad mix of equities (financials, healthcare, utilities and telecoms), an exposure to foreign stocks, some emerging market plays, some bonds and a foundation of cash, equals diversification. However, this traditional approach is not only outdated, but also completely excludes severa...


PBOC Launches Day Two Of Currency Cold War Offensive

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 04:56 PM PDT

The People's Bank of China set the yuan's central parity rate against the U.S. dollar at 6.3737 on Thursday, a second sequential major drop and down from Wednesday's 6.3598. This follows a weakened fixing of 6.3598 on Wednesday, down from the record high fixing of 6.3483 on Tuesday, just before the Senate decided to launch the first salvo in the Sino-US trade wars. Surely news of the collapse in Chinese exports will merely reinforce the theme that the USDCNY is in sudden need of devaluation and be a loud slap in the face of the Senate which will now come face to face with its utter worthlessness.  In Hong Kong, the offshore yuan spot rate was fixed at 6.4407 against the greenback on Thursday, compared with Wednesday's 6.4923. The fixing is based on an average of bids from 15 participating banks and is calculated by the Treasury Markets Association, a Hong Kong-based industry group. We are hardly the only ones who noticed the escalation in spot USDCNY wars by the PBOC, which now appears hell bent on showing the US its peg can go lower in addition to higher (inflationary consequences be damned) - from the WSJ: "The yuan fell sharply against the U.S. dollar in early Thursday trade, after the Chinese central bank surprised the market by guiding its currency weaker for the second consecutive day despite the dollar's global weakness." So even as the USD is plunging against the hope-driven Euro, which has soared 600 pips in the past week on nothing, the USD is now jumping against the CNY for no other reason than mere demagogic policy. And this environment in which central bank decisions are all that matter is the one in which traders hope to make a living based on rational market decisions (as otherwise one can flip a coin in Vegas)? Good luck.

From the WSJ

Traders said the unusual move by the People's Bank of China to set the dollar-yuan central parity, a daily reference rate, at a higher-than-expected level earlier Thursday indicated Beijing's continued displeasure following a U.S. Senate vote to pass legislation targeting Beijing's management of its currency.

 

But traders said they are curious to see how the yuan will perform later in the day, especially given the dramatic reversal of fortunes it experienced Wednesday.

 

Despite a similarly higher central parity rate Wednesday, the yuan erased all its earlier losses in late trading and ended the session stronger versus the dollar, likely a sign of a continued tug-of-war between the central bank and investors who remain confident in the yuan's long-term appreciation trend.

Bloomberg with more on the reason why this is just the beginning in the inversion direction of the USDCNY move which is sure to generate at least several subdural hematomas in the cranium of one Chuck Schumer:

The risk of a slump in trade may encourage Chinese officials to refrain from further interest-rate increases and add to support for companies after the State Council yesterday announced tax breaks for small businesses. The world is relying on China, the biggest contributor to global growth, to sustain an expansion that was 9.6 percent in the first half of the year.

 

"The leading indicators from the developed economies indicate that worse will follow" for exports, said Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale AG.

 

The yuan slipped 0.42 percent to 6.3849 per dollar as of 10:06 a.m. in Shanghai.

 

Appreciation of the yuan has weakened competitiveness and exporters are afraid to accept large or long-term orders, the customs bureau said in a statement. "Serious development problems, high unemployment rates and sliding consumer confidence" in the EU, U.S. and Japan, and slowing growth in emerging economies "present severe challenges," it said.


Richard Russell - CB’s Buying Here, Swapping Dollars For Gold

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 04:19 PM PDT

With tremendous volatility across markets globally, including gold and silver, here are some key points the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, wrote about in last couple of commentaries, "The signs are growing. I can see the signs in the number of vagrants in La Jolla and south in Pacific Beach (California). As I drive by I see little clusters of men and women (mostly men) huddled in doorways or sitting in the bushes beside the roads. These are vagrants, always a sign of a severe recession. Men holding cardboard signs stand by the side of the road. The signs read, 'Vet needs work' or 'Single mom needs food for her three children.'"


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Michael Pento - Gold’s Been The Hedge for Thousands of Years

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 04:06 PM PDT

With volatility in markets globally, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, continues to stress that investors should accumulate gold. When asked about the minutes released today from the FOMC meeting and his thoughts on the new stimulus being proposed, Pento responded, "Keynesians keep telling Americans they need to spend more and now is the time to increase the amount of government expenditures to rescue the economy, but that's a static analysis.  My question is, at what cost?  How many jobs are going to be lost from the reduction of capital that's earmarked for the private sector?"


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1% and 2%

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 04:00 PM PDT

Gold climbed to as high as $1691.75 by about 8:30AM EST before it fell back off a bit in New York, but it still ended with a gain of 1.27%. Silver rose to as high as $33.04 and ended with a gain of 2.28%.


Joe Biden: There Will Be A Huge Increase In Murders And Rapes If The Federal Government Doesn't Spend More Money To Help The Economy

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 02:38 PM PDT

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

An increasing number of politicians and celebrities are openly declaring that if the economy continues to decline, it could lead to civil unrest, more crime and outbreaks of violence all over America. But instead of loudly denouncing the coming violence, many of them are making it sound like the natural response for those that have lost hope in the economy is to resort to violence. This is extremely unfortunate. The truth is that violence is not the solution to any of our problems. Violence is only going to make things worse. But right now a lot of big names are warning that if significant changes are not made soon, the only alternative is going to be civil unrest and violence. In fact, one of the latest to make a bold declaration like this is Vice President Joe Biden. According to Biden, there are going to be a lot more rapes and a lot more murders if Congress does not pass Obama's jobs plan.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com


Slovakia Passes New Version of EFSF / Gold and Silver Hold Steady

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 02:34 PM PDT

by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed today at $1681.30 up a full $21.60 on the day. Silver advanced another 80 cents closing at $32.75. The Euro rose with news that Slovakia had another meeting and they agreed to back the EFSF current bailout format in return for early elections:

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.com


Michael Pento: Gold’s Been The Hedge for Thousands of Years

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 01:04 PM PDT

from King World News:

With volatility in markets globally, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, continues to stress that investors should accumulate gold. When asked about the minutes released today from the FOMC meeting and his thoughts on the new stimulus being proposed, Pento responded, "Keynesians keep telling Americans they need to spend more and now is the time to increase the amount of government expenditures to rescue the economy, but that's a static analysis. My question is, at what cost? How many jobs are going to be lost from the reduction of capital that's earmarked for the private sector?"

Michael Pento continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com


New Gold, Silver Floor –Should I Restructure my Portfolio?

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 01:00 PM PDT

Many have contemplated adjusting their precious metal portfolios in light of the fall of the gold price from $1,900 to the current $1,600+ level. Many gold shares haven't performed as well as the gold price. Why? Will they in the future? Should investors hold just the metal, or will shares now outperform the gold and silver prices? What are the criteria for choosing a share in the precious metals, mining industry? How do I design my own portfolio to suit my investment goals and emotional tolerance?


Chaos in the Land of Oz

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 12:56 PM PDT

Chaos in the Land of Oz

Wizard of Oz: [speaking in a booming voice into microphone] I am the great and powerful...  [then, realizing that it is useless to continue his masquerade, moves away from microphone, speaks in a normal voice] 
Wizard of Oz: ... Wizard of Oz.

Last week, Elliott and I interviewed Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner about his take on the markets and the economy.   Here's part I. ~ Ilene

Ilene: Hi Russ. So, tell us about life in the world of finance. 

Russ: Right now, I'm very much focused on a phrase I call "The Wizard of Oz." The Wizard of Oz is the Federal Reserve, the governments, the U.S. Treasury, and the "Troika." You need to understand these organizations to invest today. You need to hire old apparchiks from the old Soviet Union, because the basis of the 2009-2011 bull market is massive government intervention. 

For instance, the spending of the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. government, right now is 25% of GDP. The norm is 18%. So that means 7% of GDP can be attributed to the government propping up this economy. You have huge transfer payments used for paying off banksters and keeping the system going. A lot of the transfers go to the wealthy "kleptocrats." That's one of the reasons we had a 400% increase in the price of Tiffany's, while Wal-Mart is on it's butt. Is it any mystery that protests against Wall Street and kleptocrats are on the rise? 

So that's the effect. You really have to be an old apparachik Russian guy; those guys would do really well in an environment like this. 

Elliott: I remember back in the 70s, there were people who were "Kremlinologists" and "Kremlin watchers" and so it seems now that in order to be an investor you have to be a "Fedologist."

Russ: Yeah, it's ridiculous. Everybody is extremely focused on the Fed, every utterance, every rumor, every shill that they run. And they end up being pump-and-dumps a lot of times.

Elliott: There's Jon Hilsentrath with the Wall Street Journal, Bernanke's favorite "sounding board."

Russ: Absolutely, and Steve Liesman. He's a shill, and you can actually quote me on that. They run the rumors, the pump-and-dumps, that they need to operate. The problem for investors, small investors especially, is that if you're too tied in to what they're saying, you end up being victimized by the gaming. For instance, CNBC is a good source for figuring out what the current pump-and-dump schemes are. 

Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw. 
Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain? 
Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they? 

CNBC spent the last six, nine months pumping up emerging markets and commodities, and look what's happened to the investors who followed that? Emerging markets are now down on the order of 30%. There's a good sized commodity correction going on. It doesn't pay to buy these guys hook, line and sinker. It's dangerous. As a result of pumping up a massive Treasury bubble, the system has been able to maintain this 7% extra spending. But neither the Bubble nor the spending can be sustained. 

Government borrowing is highly dependent on the Fed. It's not a real market, it's rigged. The Fed is far too much of a presence, and now we have an enormous unsustainable debt. And everybody's trading around what the Fed says, what they're gonna do, how they will interfere with the market. 

Another aspect of this treasury bubble is that the government is going to be subjected to credit downgrades. Same thing that happened in Europe. Look at European yields, two, three years ago, look at the yields of Portugal, Ireland and Greece. The yields were two and three percent. Now they're double digits. Nobody can convince me that the US is immune to that. These are debt traps. You get into a situation where you can't borrow any more at these low interest rates. Once the interest rates start spiking, they'll lose control of the situation. It's a major game-changer. 

And so I think investors and speculators need to put this into their thinking, tattoo it on their foreheads: the potential exists for the United States government to completely lose control of these ultra-low interest rates. The low interest rates don't really do any good. They punish savers. It's not good policy anyway, and when you get into a debt trap and credit downgrades, it spirals out of control. I think that's on the horizon.

The key to helping Europe is to shrink the banking sector. The banking sector is too large in all these countries. It's a parasite. The large banks provide no social good. But these interests, the interests of "banksters," have captured governments. The banksters control the governments and loot them endlessly. That's what these bailouts are about. 

The old-style, regional small banks aren't the problem. The problem is we have a "too big to fail" system, and they just run these dynamite strapped routines, and they own the government. 

So if you look at the discussion going on in Europe, it centers around the idea of debt forgiveness, maybe starting with Greece, writing off debt. But the banksters won't go along with that. That's the political battle going on in Greece. 

Elliott: It sounds like the immovable object running into the irresistible force. 

Russ: They control these governments. Even though there are popular movements, which may eventually vote these guys out, at the present time, we'll send Turbo Timmy Geithner over to Europe and he'll just run the same programs. He's totally corrupt, dangerous, and he'll pressure these guys to save the banking sector. That's a "dynamite straps" theory. They'll show up and say, "If you don't bail us out and save us, we'll blow up the world." 

Ellott: Right, they were saying that back in '08, how if we didn't do the bailouts, we'd end up with martial law. 

Russ: So here we are, three years later repeating the pattern. Now we have sovereign debt problems that are out of control.  There has to be a major restructuring of debt in Europe, probably not just Greece, but also the other peripheral countries.  Sure there has to be some austerity and some reform, but make the banksters take losses. If we don't see some major banks shutting down in this next six months, look out. We're heading a lot lower. Countries that do it right, laying the pain at the banksters' doorsteps, will start healing. There will be some pain, but there's pain already, and eventually they'll recover.  

Ilene: So you see some hope that countries will restructure their debts and force the banks to take losses? It seems the 2008-09 meltdown and subsequent events showed that the law doesn't apply to these special bankster people. They got bailouts, loans from the Fed, outrageous sums of money for "bonuses", and only a token few were prosecuted. I wonder on what basis the Federal government and Fed had the legal authority to plunge the country so deeply into debt - to be extracted from taxpayers - for the purpose of bailing out private too-big-to-fail entities?  If the situation was so dire that the world would end if the banks failed, the government should have taken them over, not saved them.  So back to the question, what gives you hope that anything has changed?

Russ: I don't think it's going to be done politically. There are popular movements, people who hit the streets. The German perspective is probably the best. The country has a triple-A rating. The German people don't want to be dragged down into a tar pit, bailing out all these countries around Europe. If they stand up to these guys then there's hope, but I don't invest on hope. (See Russ's "Is Germany the Great Savior of Europe?")

I hate these kind of rallies, where they float a rumor that there's going to be another bailout and these "boys in the sandbox" get out and drive stocks up 6%. You'll notice that these rallies don't last because it's not sound economics. 

Elliott: One of the things I'm trying to figure out is the Dollar. It ran in a channel between 73 and 76 for the last six months, and then in the last three weeks it broke out in a big way, and now it's trading in the 78 to 79 range. 

Russ: A lot of that is probably technical. Many of these carry trades that have gone on around the world are all in dollars, you remember the cost of borrowing in dollars is nothing, if you do it right. So if you're a speculator you're borrowing dollars and jumping into emerging markets, or gold or commodities, or whatever, and then once those trades come undone, it's a technical factor that causes the dollar to rally.

Elliott: Do you see the Dollar breaking back down to the 73-76 range or below?

Russ: I don't know. The Dollar could go up, if this carry trade continues to unwind. I have a feeling right now that, for people out there in trouble, they keep running these rumors, to try to help them out. 

Ilene: Do you mean the Banksters are running rumors to drive the Dollar down and the stock market up? 

Russ: Yes, the people who run the trades, finance the trades, benefit from the fees and commissions, who skim the fractions off the trade, the pump and dumpsters, it all ties together. If you invest or speculate, you better understand the big picture.

There's also a lot of shorts in the market. People are classically over-trading the market. People have to, there's no return on their money, so they're in there playing something. You gotta play something, you gotta be short something, or you gotta be long something, or you gotta be doing a carry trade. That's because the banking sector is too large. It dominates our economy. The real economy has shrunken while these monkeys play these games. 

The most bullish thing that could happen is for this system to come to a final end. Until that happens, I would not be a long term investor. Really, you can only gamble with the rest of these guys, and with a clear understanding of what is transpiring. To turn long-term bullish, we need to see these banking systems shrink, and a lot of debt get forgiven.  

I could go on and on about moral hazard and the apprachik Soviet Union Russian type behavior it engenders.  Ultimately it comes back to shrinking the banking sector, making them take the hit, starting to forgive the debt - restructuring the debt, and resetting the plate for the whole economy. That means wiping out banksters, taking their equity, closing down their banks, taking their bondholders and wiping them out. That absorbs a lot of the debt out there and properly places it. To take that debt and put it on the back of Germany and France now is insane. 

Now, the other aspect that's going on is that China has been a huge story. China is a disaster waiting to happen. I noted that on September 12 there was a story out of Shanghai where seven of these large operators, businesses, manufacturers just shut down the same day, leaving huge amounts of debt unpaid. Most of these guys fled the country. Now there are more and more of these stories involving hundreds if not thousands of firms. They haven't paid their workers. It's a slash and burn economy. There's totally inefficient development, waste, building unoccupied cities - vanity projects. Yet when you step back and look at China, 35% of their sewage is untreated. So they do everything out of order, everything is "big splash," something that could collect a fee or loot and steal, and put it in the ratlines rather than really solving the problem. I think that's very much what's happening in China. 

Elliott: You know, it's kind of unfortunate to use the phrase "35% untreated sewage" and "big splash" in the same sentence. 

Russ: (laughs) You got that right.  It's a very, very unstable system. We have a boom/bust economy. When you print money the way they have, you distort the economy, you get strange things happening. You get a boom, and then all of a sudden, nine months later, you have a bust. It is not based upon proper development. It amazes me how this slash-and-burn mentality has taken hold. One of the stories you'll hear right now in the market is "buy big-cap multinationals. Cheap stocks." They sell at really low PE's, especially relative to treasuries. Well, you know, there's actually some truth to that, until you actually start digging down into the groups that constitute these multinationals. And I saw a great quote. I want to pass this on, from the CEO of Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Sanofi is a major French drug company.  His name is Christopher A. Viehbacher and he says "I am a bit envious of companies whose products have been accused of contributing to health problems. I'd like to have the same P/E as the people who make soda pop and potato chips." Then the article goes on to say that the soft drink sector now has an average P/E ratio of 16, according to Thomson Reuters, and Sanofi is 7.5. I think that illustrates what's going on. Companies are rewarded for irresponsible activity in our global economy. 

Elliott: Well, there's definitely been a trend over the last 30 years. 30 years ago, corporations were expected to have a duty to the community, to their employees, as well as their investors. And now it's like the investors are completely paramount and everybody else isn't even on the radar. 

Russ: It's just a mentality out there that you can get away with giving people diabetes, and get rewarded with a high P/E ratio and a great growth story, while a company like Sanofi (SNY) struggles to come up with a medicine to heal these people. Then the government comes in and controls drug prices, and tries to dictate to them. Yet they let these other guys run amok. 

Why is it that Pepsi's at 16 times earnings, why is McDonald's at 16 times earnings, why are these drug companies selling for nothing? It's because the system is set up all wrong. Can it be reformed? I don't know. I think you just have to be very cynical about what you do. Try to invest as much with angels as much as you can. Don't try to stoop down to behaviors that everybody else is involved in, even though its very popular. As an investor, I'd look at a Sanofi over a Pepsi or a McDonalds. It's investing with angels. 

Ilene: What other companies, besides Sanofi, do you like?

Russ: I have a theme called the third Industrial Revolution that relates to energy transformation away from fossil fuels (especially oil). I was doing some buying below SPY 1100 (but not now) in names like FWLT, COP, SHAW, GTAT, ASYS. I also like some other drug companies like AMGN and LLY.  If I see names - I have a watch list - selling for under 5 times enterprise value to EBITDA in what I call "doing God's work" sector (the non-criminals), I take a look. I am shorting luxury retailers like TIF, WFM and ANF, and also XRT via selling naked calls (the premiums are high) at the upper end of the range. I am also short 2 and 5 year Treasury futures. My moves are covered in my Actionable Subscription service.  

Elliott: In other words, try to find the people who are creating true value, real wealth and doing it without destroying everything around them.

Russ: Yeah, exactly. 

Elliott: Well, we have to start thinking about what this economy is supposed to be doing again. Does the economy exist to serve the human race, or does the human race exist to serve the economy? 

Russ: Or does the economy exist to serve a group of kleptocrats and crooks? 

Elliott: Remember Dave Chappell and his interviews with Rick James, when Rick would say "Cocaine is a hell of a drug"? Dave would ask Rick about his bizarre behavior, the insane things that went on, and Rick would reply with "cocaine is a hell of a drug." I find myself thinking if you were to interview some of these people and they were to be as honest as Rick James, when you start asking them why were you doing this, the answer would be "money is a hell of a drug."

Ilene: In addition to money-lust, I think a quest for power goes along with it too. 

Russ: Well, the system has been set up for the kleptocrats and crooks. There's no prosecution. Nobody has gone to jail for the 2008 scandals, unless it's just blatant, like Bernie Madoff.  My big criticism of Presidente Hopium is that no one's gone to jail. He didn't have to deal with Republicans on this. He could have beefed up the Department of Justice and hired prosecutors. Why has he not laid a glove on these people? It's not an excuse he can lay at the foot of the Republicans, it's too late for that. 

Ilene: Where are we headed?  

Russ: There are people realizing this is not a sustainable system, but they've gotten so trapped into it.  I don't think they can do more than "at the margin" type things. Geithner might go because Obama might decide that to get re-elected, he'll need more of a populist agenda, so he'll get rid of Geithner. They'll just replace him with another crony capitalist.  I don't think the outcome is good. In Europe, I'm kind of interested to see if maybe they do some debt forgiveness there, for instance in Greece. 

Elliott: Well, we've heard a lot about the possibility of "debt contagion" in Europe, if Greece were to default. I think what they're really afraid of is the idea of a debt forgiveness contagion spreading.  

Russ: Well, that's what's required.

Elliott: Because once one guy gets forgiven over a giant debt, the next guy standing next to him goes "hey, wait, how come he got his debt forgiven, and I still have to carry this giant burden? Screw that! I want to get forgiven too!"

Russ: Right, well, these countries are trapped, they're in debt traps, and who loaned them the money? Typically this debt is held by the banking system. 

But an indebted country has a moral obligation to default on that loan if paying it would mean starving its people. Extreme austerity is a trap. Defaulting is not that big of a deal. They did it in the 1980's with the Brady bonds. They did it in Brazil, in Argentina. Those countries got re-established, and here we are 20 years later. It's not the end of the world. Banks have been going out of business for centuries. Look at the United States, the British were constantly loaning money for railroad construction, canal construction, there were booms and busts. They lost money. And they'd come back two years later and do it all over again. So the idea that because some big banks go under its the end of the world is bullshit. It's not how banking and economic histor


Gold Bulls Pressing against the Bears' Line of Defense

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 12:01 PM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] I have noted that $1680 is a key technical chart resistance level for the gold market to overcome if it is to have a shot at $1700 and a chance to begin a trending move higher. I say this because one can see from the short term price chart that since late September, all forays into this zone have been successfully repulsed by the shorts. Today the bulls pressed through this defense line but could not muster enough strength to hold their gains in a convincing fashion as the market retreated back below the $1680 level, although just barely. We have two days left in this week for trading. If gold can clear $1680 and hold this level by the time it closes for trading Friday afternoon, it should easily hit $1700 next week where the only resistance is more psychological in nature than technical. Note that the downsloping red trend line has been broken in today's session gains by the bulls. Ther...


Dubai gold buyers switching from jewelry to bullion

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 11:51 AM PDT

By Brinda Darasha
The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, October 12, 2011

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020391430457662678286998808...

DUBAI -- The recent violent volatility in gold prices is disrupting traditional buying patterns in Dubai, with customers moving from jewelry to bullion as they renew a focus on the yellow metal's investment potential, a trend that is prompting more city jewelers to stock gold in the form of coins and bars.

Dubai, known as the city of gold, is a long-established market for bullion and wholesale and retail jewelry. Its trade is fueled by demand from India, the world's number one gold consumer, and domestic consumption which, at 19 tons in the second quarter of 2011, makes the United Arab Emirates the second-largest consumer of gold jewelry and bullion in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia.

Whereas traditional retail demand was for jewelry, there has been a change in buying patterns, said Pradeep Unni, senior relationship manager at Richcomm Global Services, a Dubai-based commodity services company and a broker of the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange, or DGCX, which trades a gold futures contract.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



"Earlier while women would buy gold in the form of jewelry, now one can see men, finding themselves with a bit of spare cash, go into a jewelry shop and buying ten-tola bars," he says. A ten-tola bar, called TT bar in the trade, is a traditional Indian measure of weight that equals 3.75 ounces.

"Sales of gold coins and TT bars are up 30-40% on year as they aren't as expensive as the kilo bar," said Mr. Unni.

Cyriac Varghese, general manager of Sky Jewellery in Dubai, has noticed a similar trend. "When prices went up in early August, there was a drop in jewelry business and people who had spare cash moved into gold coins and bars as they thought the price would rise further," he said.

The gold price has soared 35% since January 2011 to above $1,900 per ounce in September as investors sought refuge in its safe haven status in the face of an uncertain global economic outlook and concerns about the health of the U.S. dollar.

According to Ahmed Bin Sulayem, executive chairman of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, those who are looking to invest in gold now are "those who don't have gold in their portfolios; people who think that in addition to having a bank account, they need to have gold." The Dubai Multi Commodities Center is one of the backers of the DGCX, and helps promote the local gold trade.

The World Gold Council, an industry organization, says demand for physical bars and coins in the United Arab Emirates--the grouping of seven emirates that includes Dubai--rose 6% in the second quarter of 2011 from a year earlier, while demand for jewelry was down 1% in the same period.

If the trend continues, it could suggest that demand for gold in Dubai is becoming more speculative, local jewelers said, since buyers appear more willing to sell their bars and coins into any rise in the price. Buyers of jewelry, in contrast, are less likely to sell for cash as women prefer to exchange it for a newer design or pass it on from one generation to the next.

"There is slightly more demand than before for bars and coins. This was also exacerbated by a shortage of supply for these in the market. We also noticed that when the price of gold fell, people came back into the stores to try sell the coins and bars back again," said Raj Sahai, director-retail, at jewelry retailer Damas.

Jewelry shops in Dubai, from souk to glittery malls, are stocking up on bullion to meet the higher demand. Damas has been ordering more coins and bars, Mr. Sahai noted.

Gold certificates are also increasingly popular. Demand for local bank Emirates NBD's Gold Certificates, which can be redeemed either in cash or physical gold bars, has risen five-fold in August and September from the beginning of the year, Gerhard Schubert, head of precious metals, at Emirates NBD said. "There's been unprecedented buying from the moment of the market opening till close," he said adding that many of the certificate buyers are fresh buyers.

However street wisdom holds that there's a marked preference for physical gold in Dubai. "Unlike in the West where people are happy to invest in gold certificates and exchange traded funds, here they like to handle gold; it's a cultural difference," said an analyst who declined to be named.

* * *

Join GATA here:

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Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

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New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

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Help keep GATA going

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Prophecy Platinum Drills 120.9 Meters
Grading 1.26 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
Monday, September 26, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) has announced the drill results received from its 2011 drilling Wellgreen platinum group elements, nickel, and copper project in the Yukon Territory.

Borehole WS11-188 encountered 457 meters of mineralization grading 0.47% nickel equivalent (including 0.72 grams per ton platinum, paladium, and gold) from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization, the hole encountered a high-grade section of 17.8 meters of 3.14 grams per ton platinum, palladium, and gold, 1.03% nickel, and 0.74% copper (1.77% nickel equivalent).

The hole was drilled completely outside of current resource boundaries, between the East Zone resource and the West Zone resource that was reported in the company's press release no July 14, 2011.

The high-grade intercept located between the two resources not only demonstrates that the East and West Zone resource form a single, geologically contiguous body but also indicates that the higher-grade material in the East Zone continues to the west and at depth at Wellgreen.

For drill result tables and maps, please see the company's full press release here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_sep26_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



Cash on the Side

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 11:41 AM PDT

I have an account with one of the well know WS names. The guy I work with calls this morning. He says:

"Across the entire'Wealth Management' side of our firm we have clients who are sitting on cash earning zero return. For that reason we think stocks have to move higher."

The guy is right. I'm scared to step up and so are a lot of others. So I say back to him, "I'll think about it." I did, my thoughts:

The recommendation is to position for a year-end rally. That's what's supposed to happen. It happens every year. But all I see is uncertainty.

What's the Best Case for the EU as far as the markets are concerned? The answer is that a deal in excess of $3 trillion is coming. This is what the market is currently looking for:

-A deal where there is a soft landing restructuring of Greek debt.


-A "solution", where dozens of big banks will be infused with fresh government capital (a la the US TARP).


-The outcome will be the Socialization of the banking sector and the problematic public sector debts of the PIIGS. This massive transfer of debt/risk will be facilitated with a leveraged SPV.


-Numerous weaker financials will be absorbed by the State(s) (a la Dexia). The terms of those TBTF
wind-downs will be market friendly. Equity holders will not be wiped out, Preferred and subordinated debt will benefit from a new State guaranty.


-Coupled with the above, there will be an IMF package to assist in the bailout to the tune of $400 billion.

That's the Best Case? To me that is a disaster. If all this were to happen it would result in a near immediate downgrade of both France and Germany. The "guarantees" of the SPV guarantors would be devalued in a month.

If this is the way the world is going to go, it is a road fraught with risk. The EU would look like the USA with Fannie and Freddie. Trillions of dollars of debt and guarantees would be "off balance sheet". The losses would be born by Germany and France.

I think there is a very real risk that a "positive" outcome in the EU will lead, in short order, to a broad based credit crunch in Europe. The solution to that problem will be for the ECB to print money and the Federal Reserve will have to (again) come to the rescue with a multi-trillion increase in dollar swap lines to the EU Central Banks.

The "Big Bailout" is a very slippery slope in my opinion.

That is an outcome that I would rather 'sell on the news'  than 'buy on the rumor'.

 

****************************

The Worst Case (as far as the market is concerned) is that the deep thinkers in the EU actually start listening to the voters in France and Germany. The result is that the "Grand Plan" to save the Euro experiment is a dud.

An outcome under this scenario is a deal that is woefully inadequate to the task. A popgun approach. Any "successful" plan  must put the German taxpayers at risk. A plan that falls short of today's very high expectations would be seen through by the markets in just a few hours.

 

****************************

On the USA side of things, there seems to be a disconnect between the real economy and equities. Over the next six weeks we have a few hurdles to cross:

-Another Continuing Resolution is necessary to keep the government running. The date for this is November 18th.


-There MUST be a resolution of the Bi-Partisan deficit commission on $1.4 Trillion of deficit reduction. (November 30th)


-As of today, the outlook for any 2012 stimulus is up in the air. Failure to pass any legislation will result in a $120 billion middle class tax increase that would kick in January 1. (The reversal of the "one-year only" 2% FICA tax reduction.) We may end up with the "Jobs Bill" being very much a slice of bread when a few loaves are needed. Should that be the case, 2012 GDP estimates would fall to the 0-2% range.

****************************

It's just a joke to think we are out of the woods with energy prices. Look at this chart of the real cost of crude for much of the country. This chart is telling me that $105 oil is the bottom of the range. It's also telling me we are headed back up, not down, as Mr. Bernanke keeps telling us. (I discount NYMEX crude pricing as a measure of anything).


****************************

 

There's a credit crunch that's sneaking its way through the US  debt markets. The latest evidence is in Jumbo Prime loans. See Zero Hedge for details (link). It's creeping into critical areas of finance. Consider these words and charts from UBS:

The high yield primary market was virtually shut this week, with no deals pricing in the fourth $0 volume week since the start of August.


Since August, weekly volume has averaged a meager $699 million, versus $6.7 billion per week during the same period in 2010


Secondary markets have continued to trade wider. This week, the Broad Market, B-rated, and CCC-rated high yield indices all touched 2011 wides (and their widest levels since 2009). The BB-rated Index, while having fared better than its lower rated peers, also touched a 2011 wide during the week, and its widest level since mid-2010

.
It's increasingly clear that a credit contraction is in the works. In part, that's due to folks like me that look at high yield debt returns and see capital loss resulting from default and restructuring. High grade debt pays nothing. Why bother.
 
****************************

There is no good news coming from China over the next few months. Period. Depending on how the currency issue with the USA is resolved, it could get ugly.

 

We shall see what the markets will bring. There is too much cash on the sidelines and cash has been made trash by Bernanke. My broker friend may be right that the broad tape has to move higher. But I don't trust it. I'll keep the money in the wallet for a bit longer.

 

 


With more collapses, only avoiding counterparty risk can protect investors, Turk says

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 11:39 AM PDT

7:35p ET Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells King World News that the next Lehman moment hasn't arrived yet, that the nationalization of Belgium's Dexia bank and the bankruptcy of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are just intermediate steps to the next financial collapse when only assets without counterparty risk -- the precious metals -- will really protect investors. An excerpt from the interview with Turk is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/12_J...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Golden Phoenix Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire and Reopen Santa Rosa Gold Mine in Panama

Company Press Release
Monday, September 19, 2011

SPARKS, Nevada -- Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 60 percent interest, with an option to buy an additional 20 percent interest, in the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, now owned by Silver Global S.A., a Panamanian corporation.

Santa Rosa produced more than 100,000 ounces of gold from 1996 to 1998 before being closed in part to low gold prices, which are now more than five times higher.

Golden Phoenix intends to acquire its initial 60 percent interest in Santa Rosa by acquiring 60 percent of the share capital of a recently created company under the name Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., formed to hold and operate the mine.

Tom Klein, CEO of Golden Phoenix says: "The agreement establishes a solid framework from which we can advance Mina Santa Rosa to production-ready status."

For Golden Phoenix's complete statement, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-signs-definitive-ac...



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Or call Ron Hera at 360-339-8541x101.



Time to Go All-In on Gold Stocks?

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:40 AM PDT

by Vedran Vuk, Casey Research:

Dear Reader,

I have some questions for you today regarding the financial sector's activities in Europe: "Why Greece? Why not Serbia? Why have the European banks put so much money into buying Greek bonds and not some other country's bonds?" After all, there are plenty of other risky countries where the banks could have planted their funds. What's the difference between Greece and any other shaky country?

In my opinion, there are two big risks to consider while investing anywhere. The first thing to consider is the fiscal and political situation. If the country starts regulating the market to death and spending like crazy, clearly that's a problem. The second big risk is the central bank. If the currency goes out of control, those bonds won't be worth much.

Read More @ CaseyResearch.com


Gold Analysis from a Talented Metals Trader

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:36 AM PDT

from MilesFranklin.com:

Five of the larger bankers or fund analysts said today they expect the year to closeout at S&P 1350. Keep in mind they need the higher pumped-up numbers to close out their books on higher prices and more importantly to them, their annual bonuses are predicated on a higher close-out. This is why at the latest in the fall, November 1 is the big buying day cycle for the last quarter. For these fund managers and brokers this is like opening day in baseball. WE DO NOT INTEND TO FIGHT THEIR MASSIVE LONG TRADES. SHARE PRICES ARE GOING UP IN THIS QUARTER BARRING SOME UNFORSEEN BLACK SWAN ACCIDENT – traderrog.wordpress.com Roger Wiegand

A friend of mine, a professional trader who has spent the last two decades trading gold, silver, platinum and palladium for large bullion banks and for his own account, sent me his latest analysis on gold:

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com


Did Operation Twist Send 30 Year Rates to Record Lows?

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:32 AM PDT

= OWS, GOLD Did Operation Twist Send 30 Year Rates to Record Lows Answering Your Questions ...


The Gold Price Closed Up at $1,681.30 Must Hold Above $1,655

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:29 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1681.30
Change : 21.60 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.754
Change : 0.790 or 2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.33
Change : -0.593 or -1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01948
Change : 0.000222 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1555.00
Change : 28.00 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 612.00
Change : 6.00 or 1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,207.25
Change : 11.71 or 1.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $141.63
Change : $ (0.55) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.851
Change : -0.027 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 351.68
Change : -5.48 or -1.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,518.85
Change : 102.55 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 77.00
Change : -0.590 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE confounded me today once again. I was interpreting yesterday as gold's third failure to pierce $1,675, but today it closed Comex at $1,681.30, up $21.60. I ain't nothing but a natural born fool no way, so I got no reputation to protect. Still, that little hook up to $1,681 just looks like a sidlin' move from Monday and Tuesday, and not a determined rise. Tomorrow gold will prove me clean wrong if it trades up to $1,700. A break thru $1,655 will drag gold down like concrete overshoes on a New York gangster.

Even if the GOLD PRICE breaks upside tomorrow and reaches $1,700 or $1,725, I will still be suspecting it's no more than a rally in a correction. A close over $1,775 would slap my jaws and prove me wrong.

The SILVER PRICE stole another 79 cents on Comex to close at 3275.4c, breaking that pesky 3250c resistance. The 20 dma stands slightly higher, at 3357c, and crossing above that would turn silver up, if only temporarily. SILVER could trade clean up to 3950c and still not prove it's going higher. But the MACD indicator says silver will move higher for a while, so it probably will climb for a few days.

Big question that the SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE will answer here is, Have they made their lows for the correction? This rally will tells, either by shooting moon-ward or climbing and falling back.

Ours is an Age of Illusion in which we elect actors as presidents and governors and pretend they can rule. Appearance is all, reality nothing.

But appearance can kill you. Doesn't matter whether a fire really is blazing in the crowded theater, if a little smoke sends the crowd stampeding out, they can still run over you and kill you.

So markets today run on illusion. The illusion's effect is further amplified many-fold by the huge degree of leverage available in every market. In gold futures, for instance, you put up about 6.25 cents to control a dollar's worth of gold -- your 6.25 cents controls 16 times its value, the illusion of wealth.

I seek to pinpoint why Our Age so frustrates rational and realistic people, namely, illusion overpowers reality and reason everywhere.

Thus a rational and realistic bank examiner would slap his briefcase together, put his fountain pen in his pocket, stand up, brush the bank's dust off his feet, and leave to report that the European and American banks are a hopeless case, dead on arrival. But the banks own the illusionists we call "government officials," and those worthies are constantly creating the illusion that somehow or other, the banks and the financial system will all muddle thru, if we hoi polloi will only suck up our guts, tighten our belts, and pay for the bailouts.

Which brings me to Europe and its basket case. EC President Jose Barroso, who resembles a very worried toad, called for reinforcing (a.k.a, bailing out) the banks, paying out the 6th loan to Greece (altho Greece admits it can't meet the criteria), and a fast start for the permanent rescue fund (sovereign debt bail out fund or "bucket"). Meanwhile, Slovakian legislators, urged no doubt by muffled phone calls explaining how likely they were to jump out of windows spontaneously if they didn't change their votes, agreed to vote again on supporting the euro bailout fund, and get it right this time, after they failed to approve it yesterday.

Now y'all bear in mind that none of this offers a genuine, effective solution to the crisis. It's all feckless illusion.

On the basis of these Illusionists' performance, the Stock Market Illusion jumped today, along with the euro. Stocks did not overnight somehow secure a more profitable outlook, the euro was not backed by gold or goats or fava beans. Nothing changed but the illusion, but Ahhh! That was enough.

Have y'all ever seen that movie, Lars and the Real Girl? This fellow orders a life-sized blow-up doll then walks her around town introducing her as his new girlfriend. Everybody, even his family, plays along. Folks in his church throw a birthday party for her. Even have a funeral for her near the movie's end. Happens right there in Minnesota. They ought to make a sequel, Ben and the Real Economy.

STOCKS rose 102.55 or 0.9% to 11,518.85. S&P500 rose 11.71 or 0.98% to 1,207.25.

The Dow has now climbed thru its 20 day moving average (11,135) and 50 dma (11,204) and crossed above the bottom jaw of the Jaws of Death topping formation. 200 DMA, a possible target, stands at 11,968, which roughly coincides with support/resistance about 11,860.

If the Dow can pierce that 11,860 and the S&P500 the 1,250 level, stocks could rally to 12,750. I doubt that, but if stocks don't crumble at that resistance, it's possible.

More likely is that the mad-dog leveraged traders are driving the move by the latest wave of illusion/optimism out of Europe, and their manic-depressive mood will swing again on the next bad news.

All this holds true, too, for the Franken-currency, the euro. Off the 1.3164 bottom it has risen to close at 1.3787 today, up on the day 1.03%, and at the bottom of the trading range (May-September) it broke down from. In making this leap it has left two gaps behind so it looks like a strong runaway move, but I've learned to distrust the euro's gaps some what. It left them on the way down too, and thru the summer. They run a little way, then fizz out. BICBW, and if the euro crashes thru the resistance at the bottom of the channel, call it 1.3950, it might rise to 1.4000. Go ahead, Illusion-eaters! Y'all buy a bunch of 'em. Y'all might get rich doing it, or you might just pick your own pocket. Me, I wouldn't buy euros with stolen money, recalling that this rally only marks a 50% retracement of the fall.

The yen dropped today 0.76% to 129.46c/Y100 (Y77.26=$1), a big fall that sank it beneath the 20 dma (130.41) but still rides atop the downtrend line from August. Breaking, but not broke.

US dollar index today lost 59 basis points and is now trading at 76.995. This remains within the range of a normal correction, and stubborn fool that I am, I still expect a costlier dollar.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


The Dollar & Its Reserve Currency Status

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:24 AM PDT

The Dollar and Its Reserve Currency Status. ...


New Gold, Silver Floor – Should I Restructure my Portfolio?

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:23 AM PDT

by Julian D. W. Phillips, GoldSeek.com:

Many have contemplated adjusting their precious metal portfolios in light of the fall of the gold price from $1,900 to the current $1,600+ level. Many gold shares haven't performed as well as the gold price. Why? Will they in the future? Should investors hold just the metal, or will shares now outperform the gold and silver prices? What are the criteria for choosing a share in the precious metals, mining industry? How do I design my own portfolio to suit my investment goals and emotional tolerance?

Each answer will be unique for every investor.

In this the first part of this series we first look at you, the investor. Understanding your own behavior in the extremely volatile times is crucial. After all, it's likely that the world's financial markets have entered a new era of risk. One fund manager put it this way, "The future is not going to be like a past we knew. There's no exit from this morass."

Read More @ GoldSeek.com


The March of (Trade) War?

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 10:19 AM PDT

by Addison Wiggin, dailyreckoning.com:

"I want to go to war with China," declared a presidential candidate last night on national TV.

Granted, we're taking this declaration out of context. A little, anyway. "I don't want to go to a trade war," said former Sen. Rick Santorum. "I want to beat China. I want to go to war with China and make America the most attractive place in the world to do business."

Before we begin, we have to say we've been dutifully ignoring the "China issue" for months.

Jim Chanos' dire prediction of a collapse of the red charade amid our own fledgling effort to get a publishing business started in Beijing have put a damper on much of our enthusiasm since spring 2010.

Read More @ DailyReckoning.com


The Brewing War With China

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 09:01 AM PDT

Addison Wiggin – October 12, 2011

  • How a "trade war" with China could lead to "hot lead"… both are closer than you might think…
  • Alas, hope springs eternal… the vapor behind the Esperanto market rally…
  • Prayers unanswered: Harrisburg, Pa., files for bankruptcy….
  • Readers "flabbergasted" that we'd find any similarities between the Tea Party protesters and Occupy Wall Street… how dare we… editors begin to converge on Charm City for safety and survival

"I want to go to war with China," declared a presidential candidate last night on national TV.

Granted, we're taking this declaration out of context. A little, anyway. "I don't want to go to a trade war," said former Sen. Rick Santorum. "I want to beat China. I want to go to war with China and make America the most attractive place in the world to do business."

Before we begin, we have to say we've been dutifully ignoring the "China issue" for months.

Jim Chanos' dire prediction of a collapse of the red charade amid our own fledgling effort to get a publishing business started in Beijing have put a damper on much of our enthusiasm since spring 2010.

Not to mention the fact that following our trip to China in May of that year, we made a series of stock recommendations for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges… they were about as popular among readers as a pimple on the arse of a bus driver.

Still, the rhetoric among political candidates, and a growing pile of evidence that the rancor between the New World and the Middle Kingdom threatens to dominate the headlines in 2012, has lead us to break radio silence today.

Let's follow the breadcrumbs…

Yesterday, by a vote of 63-35, the U.S. Senate passed a chest-thumping bill that aims to punish China for "manipulating" the remnimbi.

"The proposed legislation," explains Singapore's Business Times Washington correspondent, Leon Hadar, "would replace the current system under which the Treasury Department is required to cite countries that 'intentionally' manipulate their currencies."

Instead, we'd get a system "under which the Treasury would determine whether any foreign currencies are in fundamental misalignment, and propose ways to correct the imbalance with countries that are named. Countries that fail to fix their currencies would be subject to anti-dumping duties and other penalties."

The reaction from Beijing was swift. The official Xinhua News Agency invoked the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that helped turn a depression into the Great Depression.

"Comparing the current political and social situation with that of 80 years ago," said Xinhua, "we can find stark similarities: an economic downturn, a high unemployment rate, marked popular discontent and growing political conflicts, especially when presidential politics is getting hot."

Thus, hours after the vote were TV viewers treated to the sight of another candidate, Mitt Romney, saying he'd immediately brand China a currency manipulator upon taking the oath of office. But he hastened to add, "I don't want a trade war with anybody."

Too late. A different kind of "trade war" is already underway.

China has already outmaneuvered the United States for the postwar oil spoils in Iraq… without ever firing a shot.

"China is the biggest beneficiary of Iraq's oil treasure," declares Gal Luft from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. "Chinese companies backed up by the Chinese government enjoy serious advantages over the international oil companies (IOC) and also have better bargaining power."

In the summer of 2009, Iraq awarded contracts to develop seven major oil fields. China's CNPC was the big winner… along with Russia's Lukoil, Malaysia's Petronas and France's Total. Exxon Mobil got leftovers.

In the summer of 2011, the Iraqi and Chinese governments signed two economic cooperation deals. China builds pipelines and other infrastructure, Iraq gives China access to oil.

PetroChina is already planning two pipelines that would stretch from Iraq all the way to China. "Exxon, on the other hand," says Morningstar analyst Allen Good, "has shareholders to answer to and can't simply bid up resources without regard to return on investment."

"China has the money and is clearly a rising power," explains Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel. "It can offer political help, technological help in some cases, military aid — which none of the major [oil companies] can."

"So take Libya, for example. China can offer guns and weapons and can offer political protection to the new government. So can France, but the majors can't. That's the biggest difference right there."

That would be ironic, considering how some experts believe the Libya war was a Western attempt to checkmate China. "China has extensive energy investments and construction investments in Libya," said former Reagan Treasury Department official Paul Craig Roberts last spring. "They are looking to Africa as a future energy source."

In November 2006, China invited leaders of 48 African countries to Beijing to discuss economic issues. No. 1 on the agenda was access to energy and minerals:

China's big move

The following month, the Bush White House authorized the formation of AFRICOM — a new U.S. military command with oversight for Africa. Previously, the duties were split among three other regional commands.

Discussing it during congressional testimony in late 2007, Defense Department adviser Peter Pham was explicit about AFRCIOM's aims: They were "protecting access to hydrocarbons and other strategic resources, which Africa has in abundance… a task that includes ensuring against the vulnerability of those natural riches and ensuring that no other interested third parties, such as China, India, Japan or Russia, obtain monopolies or preferential treatment."

…and America's countermove

AFRICOM had its first "big war" this year… in Libya. "Washington is trying to cripple its main rival, China," declares Paul Craig Roberts, "by denying China energy. That's what this is really about: a reaction by the U.S. to China's penetration of Africa."

There's also a looming U.S.-China conflict in China's own backyard.

"Today, America maintains the most powerful military in the Pacific region," writes John Feffer of the Institute for Policy Studies, " supported by a constellation of military bases, bilateral alliances and about 100,000 service personnel."

"To Be Specific, It's Our Pacific," was the title of a popular American song during World War II. American leaders still see it that way. And they don't like what's building right now in the South China Sea.

"The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea," declared the Communist Party newspaper Global Times on Sept. 27. "Let's wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to prevent more wars."

China has a long-standing territorial dispute with the Philippines and Vietnam over two clusters of islands, the Spratlys and the Paracels. The region is estimated to hold 7 billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

"We expect South China Sea tensions to continue," says former Philippine president Fidel Ramos. "China's proximate aim, it seems to me, is to limit American freedom of access" and "erode the credibility of Washington's security guarantees to the East Asian states."

Not that the Pentagon would stand still for this. It has ambitious plans to build up U.S. forces on Guam — "a new aircraft carrier berth," says UPI columnist Martin Walker, "submarine and logistics bases, facilities for more stealth warplanes, B-2 and B-52 bombers on Guam and to move 8,600 U.S. Marines to the island."

"This could be terribly, terribly dangerous if we turn into a trade war," says Vancouver veteran and China bull Jim Rogers. "Whenever people get slapped in the face, they always think they have to slap back."

And it wouldn't even take a shooting war to do lasting damage. "If America does put tariffs on the Chinese, the Chinese have various weapons at their disposal; they can stop buying American government bonds; they can sell American government bonds."

"If they did that, interest rates in America would go through the roof."

Alas, this is the clipping of the U.S. government's "credit card" we've been warning about. Overnight, the rates the U.S. Treasury pays on its long-term debt would explode. Government would have no choice but to drastically cut back services or simply print money.

The U.S. Senate just took us a step closer to this scenario. Perilous times, indeed. If you haven't reviewed how to prepare for when the day arrives, there's no better time than now.

Sunny and misplaced optimism about Europe is driving U.S. stocks higher again today. The S&P is solidly above 1,200. The Dow is back to the high end of the trading range, where it's been stuck the last two months.

The rally comes despite the Slovak parliament's rejection of a plan to expand the eurozone bailout fund.

Slovakia is the last holdout among the 17 countries that do business in the euro. One of the four parties in the governing coalition says it doesn't want Slovakia to be on the hook for Greece's excesses.

But because this is Europe we're talking about, they'll just keep voting until they get the "right" outcome. The main party in the governing coalition struck a deal with the opposition today: The opposition will switch and vote for the bailout later this week, and new elections will be held next March.

The newfound market optimism is propping up the euro, too. The Esperanto currency has firmed to $1.382.

For its part, the dollar index has broken below 77 for the first time in three weeks.

Dollar weakness is fueling a precious metals rally. Gold is up to $1,681 at last check — also a three-week high.

Silver has improved more than 2%, to $32.80.

One of the municipal basket cases we've been intrigued by has finally given up. Harrisburg, Pa. — done in by a city guarantee for an incinerator — will file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Guess the prayer vigil didn't work.

The city council vote last night was 4-3. By going to bankruptcy court, the city forfeits any state aid… but the state was insisting on terms that a majority couldn't abide by.

"They wanted to sell all of our assets and make Harrisburg destitute for decades to come," explains city controller Dan Miller.

We wouldn't doubt the state was driving a hard bargain; they're in dire straits, too. According to an analysis by Northwestern University, it would take an annual $1,550 tax increase for every Pennsylvania household for the next 30 years to fund the state government's pension obligations.

Where does your state stand? Our one-of-a-kind evaluation of all 50 states is still available. Learn more here:

"Absolutely not!" begins a litany of responses after we drew "uncomfortable" parallels between Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party protest. Our inbox is full. A version of our suggestion ended up on Forbes.com… and now those responses are hitting our inbox, too.

"The Wall Street protestors are the virus," this particular irate reader continues, "the Tea Party is the antidote."

"The stark and direct contrast between the two groups could not be more noticeable. We have one group demanding everything for nothing (Wall Street protestors). The other group is demanding the government stop taking, regulating and restricting everything."

"This is another example of the failure of socialism. How about the Wall Street protestors start giving something, and maybe they will become enlightened to the failures of their beliefs?"

"You are so wrong," begins another. "Evidently, you are not exposed to the vast majority of hard-working Americans who are looking for the way things used to be, when you could get up in the morning, and by the end of that day, you came home with a job."

"Those that do have a job are sometimes working 12-hour days for the same pay or less than they made 10 years ago. Wall Street greed and dishonest practices put us in this place."

"You almost got it right," says a third, "but I'm not 'uncomfortable,' I'm flabbergasted!

"I amazed at any analysis that seems to find some level of equivalence between the groups. While both are 'mad' at Washington for their financial dealings, the perspectives couldn't be more different."

"The Occupy Wall Street people seem to complain that 'the rich' got the money, and their problem is they would rather see Washington handing it out to all of them by forgiving debts and paying for everything they would like."

"Tea Party advocates say that Washington should not be bailing out failures, spending money they don't have and, generally, messing in the economy and grossly misusing tax revenues."

"To me, finding commonality is like saying the Palestinians and the Israelis are really kindred spirits because they both are concerned about tensions in the Middle East!"

The 5: If the shoe fits.

"You really did get to me on this one," writes another. "You find the two movements similar?

"During all the Tea Party rallies that took place last year, there was one recorded arrest. There have been over 1,200 so far at the OWS riots. I even saw a photo of some a**hole attempting to take a crap on a police car."

"As far as I can tell, these idiots have no message and no common denominator other than they do not have jobs. Many just do not want to work or will not work for minimum wage. I think it is just a copycat of the '60s hippy, anti-everything movement."

"At 70 years young, I can relate to the Tea Party desire of limited government and less spending. I do not relate to the OWS whining about not getting their share. As Herman Cain said, 'It is your own damn fault. Get off your ass and get a job.'"

"Love The 5 otherwise."

The 5: Thank you.

"Well Addison," writes another, "I suppose you expected a lot of responses on this. I am not 'made uncomfortable' by your comparison of Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party, I simply feel you haven't understood the core motivations of each group and have made a misdiagnosis."

"You are wrong to think we Tea Partiers feel 'left out' by the ruling class. We would love to be left out of their unconstitutional plans, but they insist on exercising more power over us with national health care, gun control, forced unionism, minimum wage laws, ridiculous environmental laws (Co2 a pollutant?) and many other initiatives."

"The American Dream isn't beyond our reach (yet), because the American Dream is freedom, not materialism. We are content with the fruits of our own labors and don't expect our lots to be made easier by the government. Mike Lofgren (whoever he is) doesn't know what the Tea Party is."

"Our 'grievances' are not with our standards of living, shrinking or otherwise, they are with the growth of government bureaucracies that are already Marxist in orientation. We seek to reduce the federal government back to its constitutional limitations a la Ron Paul, even phasing out Medicare.

"On the other hand, those who initiated OWS seek expanded government mandates and more limitations on free enterprise. Although we may share a dislike of the Federal Reserve Bank and Wall Street's unhealthy relationship with the federal government, our principles are diametrically opposed.

"OWS has many paid protesters. Besides, the progenitors of OWS remain in the shadows, manipulating it for their own purposes."

The 5: Of course, that could never happen with the ire expressed by the Tea Party. As if the Tea Party wasn't immediately coopted by Washington insiders like Dick Armey.

"The main difference between the Tea Party and OWS is this: The Tea Party is convinced the government is our greatest problem and must be eliminated, while the OWS protesters believe that corporations are our greatest problem, because they have effectively taken over the government, as well as much of the media, and have rigged the game in their favor."

The 5: Again… what's the difference? Solutions, definitely. But cause? No. Think about it.

We left out part of our idea yesterday. Mostly, because we thought it was preposterous. Given today's response, we're not so sure. This all could end with OWS crowds shouting down, then battling Tea Party protesters in the streets.

Cheers,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. One by one, our editors are flying into Baltimore for our Safety and Survival Summit on Friday.

With markets that are going nowhere right now, and with a host of crises on the horizon, we're putting every editor on the spot for their best investment ideas in commodities, precious metals, biotech, options and more.

Among the questions they'll tackle…

  • As the dollar diminishes in value, what are the best ways to protect your wealth?
  • Can technological breakthroughs revive U.S. prosperity?
  • What impact will Greece's demise have on America's fragile economy?
  • Is America headed for a depression or hyperinflation?
  • How can investors play the volatility in the resource markets?
  • And Byron King… what on earth is "54-North"?

This is an Agora Financial Reserve event… but we'll be making an audio recording of the session available next week. We'll email you the MP3 file as soon as it's ready. And if you move on it before the Summit begins, you'll lock in the best-available price.

P.P.S. One of those editors, our managing editor Chris Mayer, is already in town… and will hold forth on the radio tomorrow. He'll be Ron Smith's guest on WBAL-AM here in Baltimore from 11-Noon EDT. If you've never heard Chris before, you're in for a treat. Here's where to listen live.


Gold in No Man’s Land-Channel Defines Trend

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 09:00 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com October 12, 2011 07:39 AM 300 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Gold has held up for 2 weeks now. As long as price is within the bullish channel forming from the low, favor the upside towards the 100% extension of the rally from the low at 1742. Watch the channel line of course as well for support and resistance. Trend Strength (M,W,D) – 1, 0, 0 Latest Video Weekly Forecast COT...


Harrisburg Pennsylvania is doing what Greece should do, which is to basically recognize they do not have the financial capacity to repay all of the debt obligations they foolishly entered into during the boom years.

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 08:57 AM PDT

James Turk – More Bank Collapses to Cause Gold & Silver Spike  


IMF Advisor: We Face a Worldwide Banking Meltdown

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 08:47 AM PDT


The US Dollar continues to fade

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 08:40 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Dollar bulls had better hope for a breakdown in the plans of the Europeans to get their bank recapitalization rescue package moving forward because it is rapidly falling out of favor as hedge funds flee the "SAFE HAVEN" trades (buying the Dollar and the US Treasury market). The Aussie is back over the 1.00 level, the Euro has pushed up to the 1.38 level, the Loonie is at the .98 level and threatening to move back to parity and even the Swiss Franc is showing a few signs of life. There is a fairly large contingent of speculators who are (were) on the long side of the Dollar as they were plying the safe haven trade. Those positions, especially the ones that have been placed within the last three weeks, are all under water and bleeding red. The Dollar is now moving into what should provide some buying support so some of these trapped longs are holding out hope that it can bounce from here. If not...


Where We Are on the Looping Sequence of Reformation

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 08:39 AM PDT

Something is happening here and you don't know what it is,
Do you, Mr. Jones?

— Bob Dylan, "Ballad of a Thin Man"

From Wall Street to Los Angeles, sea to shining sea, occupiers are taking to the streets. No longer is it credible to say of protests and massive civil unrest abroad "It will never happen here." To do so today would be a denial of reality.

It is here…wherever that "here" may be for you. And if it is not, it soon will be.

For many Mr. and Mrs. Joneses, this is quite a confusing time. Frightening, even. They know something is happening here…but they don't know what it is. And that includes many of the Joneses in the occupying camps themselves. They know they are angry…that they have been dealt a rotten hand…that they are the "have nots." But they don't know why…or who to blame. Then, along comes an "open source" movement. They didn't even know such a thing existed a few weeks ago. But they are drawn to its energy and their fellow downtrodden within it. The see that it is going somewhere, doing something. It is on all the news channels and in the paper. And now they are neck deep in it, swept along with the tides of change, resistance and revolution.

The oldies put on their old Dylan records and imagine they are young again. The young put on their new Dylan records and wish they were old enough to remember the originals. They link arms, swap sad stories and reason that they are on the same side, the team of the cheated and the scammed. On this point they might well be right. But on what to do about it, opinions differ wildly. And so the movement marches on…some say right into the winds of a new kind of "reformation."

Here's John Robb of Global Guerrillas, an expert in open source warfare, with a "simplification of the historical pattern of Reformation":

  • Universal system.
  • Compliance and participation enforced by violence.
  • Bureaucratic and lethargic. Corrupt and unfair. Hardship and misery.
  • Loss of legitimacy.
  • Challenged by reformers. Corruption exposed.
  • New technology unleashes a cacophony of criticism.
  • Reforms are rejected by the existing bureaucracy.
  • New, competitive systems are launched.
  • An exodus begins. People leave the old system to join the new.
  • The old system fights back. A fight ensues between the old and the new.
  • Eventually a peace is achieved and a new era begins.

If indeed Mr. Robb's thinking here is correct — or even close to it — one might fairly ask, "Where are we, approximately, along this historically looping sequence?"

Certainly the "compliance and participation enforced by violence" point has been with us for a while…as has the bureaucracy, lethargy, corruption and consequent misery for the masses. But what about the rest?

Some might argue that the financial collapse of 2008-09 first exposed the fetid corruption of the system, causing its legitimacy to be, at the very least, called into question. Further along the steps, the Occupy Wall Street crowd has formerly adopted the "open source warfare" Mr. Robb describes — enabled largely by huge leaps in communications technology. The OWS movement is based on the Arab Spring model — horizontal, no hierarchy or bureaucracy, geographically decentralized, consensus decision making, etc. Now take a look at the movement. Listen to it. "Cacophony of criticism unleashed"? Check.

That leaves us somewhere between "Reforms are rejected by the existing bureaucracy" and "New, competitive systems are launched."

The world is lurching toward an impasse, a crossroads between the old and the new. Awaiting rejection from the establishment…and mounting challenges to its hegemony. It is an epoch of sorts. A chance for a brand new experiment in freedom and voluntarism…or an opportunity to dive back into the failed model of the state, only to begin the loopback process all over again.

The role of the economist — and for any astute social observer — is to shine a light on the unseen. Any old wirebug can report what's happening before his very eyes. But what's going on behind the scenes? What's happening on the fringe? Change, after all, is nurtured at the margin, far from the nipple of the bell curve…far from anyone calling themselves "the other 99%."

There is, indeed, another movement under way. Its participants are not wasting time camping out on Wall Street or attending occupations in other capital cities. And they're certainly not marching on the steps of Washington DC, as one republican presidential candidate — who hopes one day to occupy the White House himself — urged them to do. They know there's no point in pleading with those who aggress against them. They understand it's like asking a sociopath to show them a little empathy. It's impossible. And a waste of valuable time just the same. These people realize that, to be successful, an appeal to reason must be first directed toward reasonable people.

These individuals also know there is a target on their back…and that there's little point talking to the maniac with the gun. They have gone underground. They are saving — NOT "hording" — gold, trading alternative currencies, experimenting with resilient communities, preparing for a new world and generally thinking outside the box.

And they are not begging permission from the state to do so.

These revolutionaries are not utopians. They are realists. They understand that change must come about peacefully, through means of voluntary exchange and the spread of ideas. And they are building communities — on and offline — to facilitate just that. Above all, they are aware, as Murray Rothbard expressed in his work, For a New Liberty, that they must pay close attention to the failed experiments of history if they wish not to repeat them. Wrote Mr. Rothbard:

"The idea of a strictly limited constitutional State was a noble experiment that failed, even under the most favorable and propitious circumstances. If it failed then, why should a similar experiment fare any better now? No, it is the conservative laissez-fairist, the man who puts all the guns and all the decision-making power into the hands of the central government and then says, 'Limit yourself'; it is he who is truly the impractical utopian."

More on this to come…

Joel Bowman
for The Daily Reckoning

Where We Are on the Looping Sequence of Reformation originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over 400,000 readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.


Rick Rule – Global Resource Investments Founder

Posted: 12 Oct 2011 08:21 AM PDT

Author: Doug Casey Synopsis: At the Casey Research/Sprott Summit When Money Dies, Rick Rule spoke with Stefan Molyneux about energy and gold investments and his outlook for the near-future market overall. At the Casey Research/Sprott Summit When Money Dies, Rick Rule spoke with Stefan Molyneux about energy and gold investments and his outlook for the near-future market overall. [The sold-out When Money Dies summit was a huge success, with attendees and participants alike receiving much to think about. If you missed it, you can still "be there," via a full set of audio recordings. These are available now, in CD or MP3 format for your convenience.] TRANSCRIPT Stefan Molyneux: Hi everybody, it's Stefan Molyneux from Conversations with Casey. I have Rick Rule, the founder and owner of Global Resource Investments. Thank you so m...


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